Quantitative Risk Assessment D t
Determination
i ti off collision
lli i d
damage
Hannes Bogaert
Hydro Structural Services - MARIN
Hydro-Structural
Safety in and near ports
2
Some recent casualties
October 2010 – Dutch Port of Scheveningen:
Collision between container vessel and a tanker
3
Some recent casualties
August 2010 – Mumbai coast
Collision between general cargo and container ship
4
Some recent casualties
November 2009 – Singapore Strait:
Collision between tanker and container ship
5
Some recent casualties
June 2009 – North-western coast of Turkey:
Collision between general cargo ship and container ship
6
Some recent casualties
February 2009 – Port of Dubai:
Collision between container vessel and a tanker
7
Some recent casualties
August 2007 – Oshima:
Collision between container vessel and a tanker
8
Risk assessment – Risk mitigation
SAMSON
Probability
of
tank p
penetration
MA
Consequences
of
spilled
p
cargo
g
R
Probability
of
collision
COL
9
E
Eemshaven,
h
NL
Application of MARCOL
Vopak
Eemshaven LNG
Eemshaven, NL
Essent & ConocoPhillips
Gate
Rotterdam, NL
Gasunie & Vopak
Maple LNG
LionGas LNG
Goldboro, CAN
4GAS
Rotterdam, NL
4GAS
Pegaz LNG
Bordeaux, FR
4GAS
Zeebrugge, BE
Fluxys
10
Collision damage: tank penetration
11
Collision damage
Minimal
input
Time
effective
Accuracy
++
++
-
2. Analytical
y
+
±
+
3. FEM
-
--
++
1. Empirical
(e.g Minorsky)
12
Modelling of collision event – colliding vessel
Conventional
C
ti
l&
Conventional
Conventional
C
ti
l&
Bulbous
Flatt &
Fl
Conventional
Fl t & Flat
Flat
Fl t
13
Modelling of collision event – collided vessel
Collided vessel
Characteristic segment
of collided vessel
14
Collision event
15
Collision analysis
External
E
t
l
mechanics
IInternal
t
l
mechanics
Resistance of
colliding vessel
Resistance of
collided vessel
Interaction
16
Internal mechanics
–
–
Analytic models of Petersen &
Zhang (DUT), Wierzbicki (MIT),
Amdahl (NUT)
Extended for non-perpendicular
collision
17
Validation of MARCOL
–
–
ffull-scale collision tests (TNO
( O – 1998))
executed by external consultancy: Bart Boon Research Consultancy
18
Validation of MARCOL
Full-Scale Tests
MARCOL
19
Validation of MARCOL
Energy
[MJ]
Penetration
[m]
Test
MARCOL
1.48
1.6
1.02
1.0
20
Risk assessment – Risk mitigation
SAMSON
Probability
of
tank p
penetration
MA
Consequences
of
spilled
p
cargo
g
R
Probability
of
collision
COL
21
Collision events
case 1
case 2
22
Inland vessels
January 2010 – Port Arthur, Texas
Collision between tanker and barges
23
Risk assessment – Risk mitigation
SAMSON
Probability
of
- tank penetration
g
- flooding
MA
Consequences
of
- spilled cargo
- loss of lifes
R
Probability
of
- collision
grounding
g
-g
COL
24
Safety of and around natural resorts
April 2010 – Great Barrier Reef
Grounded bulk coal carrier
25
Safety in Artic and Antarctic
November 2007 – South Shetland Islands:
2400 passengers in trouble after their ship ran into an iceberg
26
Safety in Artic and Antarctic
July 2010 – North East Passage:
Collision between two ice classed tankers
27