Fred Stoffe

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Fred Stoffel
Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, Inc.
May 19, 2012
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
1
Tri-State Overview
Tri-State is a not-for-profit,
wholesale power supplier
owned by 44 electric
cooperatives and public
power districts serving a
population of approximately
1.5 million people.
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
2
Tri-State At a Glance
 Annual operating revenue
$ 1.2 billion
 Assets
$ 4.2 billion
 Average wholesale rate
6.5 cents/kilowatt-hour
 Member peak demand
2,654 megawatts
 Member service territory
250,000 square miles
 Employees
1,475
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
3
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
4
Tri-State resource planning
 Purpose:
To ensure that the
lowest cost resources,
DSM projects, and/or
purchase power options
are available on time to
meet Tri-State member
load requirements in a
reliable, robust manner
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
5
Utility Planning
Regulatory Context
 Local
 Siting
 State




Siting appeal
CPCNs
PUC rules and regulations
Environmental: State health departments
 Federal




Resources: WAPA, RUS
Transmission: FERC
Reliability: WECC, NERC, FERC
Environmental: NEPA
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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Federal Regulatory Context
 Environmental
 National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)
Required when siting facilities on federal land or
using federal funding
 National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)

 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
 Cross-State Air Pollution Rule
 Resources
 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)
Western Area Power Administration requirement
 Rural Utilities Service funding requirement

Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
7
Federal Regulatory Context
(cont.)
 Transmission
 Federal Power Act (FPA)
 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)





201(f) Exempts cooperatives
211 Open access
211A Comparability
212 Interconnection
215 Reliability
 Reliability
 Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC)
 North American Electricity Reliability Corporation (NERC)
 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)
 Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA)
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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Role of State Policies
 Reliability standards – service quality, determination
of need
 Applicability – IOUs, municipalities, cooperatives
 Service territories
 Ratemaking standards – fair and equitable; just and
reasonable; definitions of test years; financial
oversight; approval of returns
 Resource plan filing requirements – frequency,
modeling requirements, third party participation
 Efficiency standards – demand side management;
demand response
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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Role of State Policies (cont.)
 Renewable portfolio standards – RECs, multipliers
 Consideration of new technologies
 Environmental considerations; Nox, Sox, carbon,
particulates
 Treatment of externalities
 Customer usage privacy issues
 Retail choice, municipal aggregation
 Treatment of construction costs – construction work
in progress
 Low income considerations
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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Tri-State’s Resource Planning
Objectives
 Adequacy/reliability
 Capacity and energy
 Renewable portfolio standards
 Low cost
 Manage uncertainty/risks
 Exposure to price volatility
 Regulatory and environmental requirements
 Operable – will it work?
 On time, right location, robust
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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Basic Elements of Utility
Resource Planning









Assess current load/demand
Forecast load growth
Assess existing resources and delivery infrastructure
Determine “resource gap” to be filled
Identify resource constraints, policy obligations and
mandates, modeling requirements and filing
requirements
Determine alternative resource options and costs
Forecast future prices
Develop alternative resource plans, related costs
and risk assessments
Decide on which alternative portfolio is preferable
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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Load Forecast Process
End-users by Class
Nine classes – 44 members
Data from
member
Data from
outside
Forecast
development
Projections of
number of
customers
Projections of
use per
customer
Projections of
energy – each
class
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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Load Forecast Process
Total loads for each member
Projections of
energy
Each class
Changes to monthly and
hourly load patterns
Historical monthly and
hourly load patterns
Load shaping
models
Projections of
energy
Total Member
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
Projections of
demand
Total Member
14
Hourly Patterns in July Demand
Hourly Average Demand (MW)
2500
2000
Total System
1500
East Colo
West Colo
1000
New Mexico
Wyoming
Nebraska
500
0
0
2
4
6
8
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Hour
15
Hourly Patterns in December
Demand
Hourly Average Demand (MW)
2500
2000
Total System
East Colo
West Colo
New Mexico
Wyoming
Nebraska
1500
1000
500
0
0
2
4
6
8
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Hour
16
Monthly Patterns in Annual
Energy
1800
1600
Monthly Energy- GWH
1400
1200
Total System
1000
East Colo
800
West Colo
New Mexico
600
Wyoming
400
Nebraska
200
0
1
2
3
4
5
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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7
Month
8
9
10
11
12
17
LREF, System
Optimizer
Risk Analytics
Hourly
dispatch
(Ventyx PAR)
Board
Strategic
Direction
Economic
Modeling
Load /
Resource
Balance
Ventyx /
PIRA with
adjustments
Action:
Short term
Long term
Timing
Assessment
WAPA IRP
CPUC ERP
RUS LF, LREF Budget
What-If-Analysis
Market
Assessment
and Forecast
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
Resource
Assessment
Member load
forecast, EE /
DSM, trends
Load
Forecast
Existing fleet
Future options:
sites, transactions,
DSM, technologies
18
Inputs to Hourly Chronological
Production Cost Model
Resource
Characteristics
Load
Forecast
Long Term
Purchases and
Sales
Transmission
Rights
Hourly
Simulation
Planning and Risk /
Planning
and
System
Optimizer
Risk
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
Reserve and
Renewable
Requirements
Commodity Price
Forecasts
19
Outputs to Hourly Chronological
Production Cost Model
Resource
Characteristics
Load
Forecast
Generation
Dispatch
Long Term
Purchases and
Sales
Transmission
Rights
Hourly
Simulation
Planning and Risk /
Planning
and
System
Optimizer
Risk
Generation
Emissions
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
Line Loading
Reserve and
Renewable
Requirements
Commodity Price
Forecasts
Commodity
Usage
20
Resource Plan Scenario Summary
BDS
BDS - Geo
CAP limited
Wind
WRA Data
Low
Median
Median
Median
None
None
Low Level
High Level
Low Level
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Gas Price
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
WRA
Coal Price
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
RPS Level
Compliance
Compliance
Compliance
Compliance
Compliance
Compliance
Renewable Int.
Cost
$5
$5
$5
$5
$10
$5
Carbon Cost
Adder
$0
$0
$0
20
20
$18 in 2013
[email protected]%
BAU
BAU High
Load
BAU Low
Load
Growth Rate
Median
High
DSM Level
None
Electric Price
Scenario
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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Renewable Portfolio Standard
Compliance
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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January 27, 2012
(MW output vs. Hour of Day)
60
KC
Cimmarron
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
1
0
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
1
6
1
7
1
8
1
9
2
0
2
1
2
2
2
3
23
January 28, 2012
60
KC
Cimmarron
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
1
0
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
1
6
1
7
1
8
1
9
2
0
2
1
2
2
2
3
24
Finding Balance
 Reliability
 Resource mix – fuel
diversity
 Cost of resources
 Impact on environment
 Rate stability
 Bill stability
 Sustainability
 Affordability
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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Questions?
Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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Utility Resource Planning Fundamentals
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