Occupational Employment Occupational Employment Employment outlook: 2002–12 Occupational employment projections to 2012 Employment in professional and related and in service occupations are expected to increase the fastest and add the most jobs from 2002 to 2012, while office and administrative support occupations should grow about half as fast as the total; production occupations should grow very slowly Daniel E. Hecker T otal employment is projected to increase by 21.3 million jobs over the 2002–12 period, rising to 165.3 million, according to the latest projections of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 This increase represents about 600,000 more jobs than were added over the previous 10-year period (1992–2002). The projected 14.8-percent increase, however, is less than the 16.8-percent increase of the previous 10-year period. Self employment is projected to decline 2.3 percent, from 11.5 to 11.2 million. This article discusses a number of aspects of the projections along with related information: • • Daniel E. Hecker and David S. Frank (who developed the tables for this article) are economists in the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. E-mail: Hecker.Daniel@bls.gov Frank.David@bls.gov 80 • changes in the structure of employment at the major occupational group level; the detailed occupations2 that are projected to grow fastest as well as those with the largest numerical increases and decreases, along with their current educational and training requirements and earnings; and the total job openings projected to occur due to growth in the economy and the net replacement needs resulting from workers who leave the labor force or transfer to other occupations In this article, projected employment is analyzed from two perspectives—percent change and numerical change—because one can be large and Monthly Labor Review February 2004 the other small, depending on the size of employment in the base year. The following example using data for two occupations generally requiring the same level of education—a bachelor’s degree—illustrates the importance of viewing job outlook from both perspectives: Employment of environmental engineers is projected to grow twice as fast as employment of accountants and auditors over the 2002–12 period, 38.2 percent, compared with 19.5 percent. However, the accountants and auditors occupation is projected to add more than 11 times the number of new jobs (205,000 compared with 18,000), because employment was so much larger than for environmental engineers in 2002 (1,055,000 compared with 47,000). Major occupational groups Among the major occupational groups, employment in the two largest in 2002—professional and related occupations and service occupations— will increase the fastest and add the most jobs from 2002 to 2012. (See table 1.) These major groups, which are on opposite ends of the educational attainment and earnings spectrum, are expected to provide more than half of the total job growth from 2002 to 2012. Employment is projected to grow about as fast as overall employment in management, business, and finan- Table 1. Employment by major occupational group, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Number Change Percent distribution 2002 2012 2002 Number Percent 2012 00-0000 Total, all occupations ..................................................... 144,014 165,319 100.0 100.0 21,305 14.8 11-1300 15-2900 31-3900 41-0000 43-0000 45-0000 47-0000 49-0000 51-0000 53-0000 Management, business, and financial occupations .......... Professional and related occupations ............................... Service occupations ......................................................... Sales and related occupations ......................................... Office and administrative support occupations ................. Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations ....................... Construction and extraction occupations .......................... Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations ........... Production occupations .................................................... Transportation and material moving occupations ............. 15,501 27,687 26,569 15,260 23,851 1,072 7,292 5,696 11,258 9,828 17,883 34,147 31,905 17,231 25,464 1,107 8,388 6,472 11,612 11,111 10.8 19.2 18.4 10.6 16.6 .7 5.1 4.0 7.8 6.8 10.8 20.7 19.3 10.4 15.4 .7 5.1 3.9 7.0 6.7 2,382 6,459 5,336 1,971 1,613 35 1,096 776 354 1,282 15.4 23.3 20.1 12.9 6.8 3.3 15.0 13.6 3.1 13.0 NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding. cial occupations and in construction and extraction occupations. Employment in installation, maintenance, and repair; transportation and material moving; and sales and related occupations will grow somewhat more slowly. The three slowest growing groups—all with rates less than 7 percent—are office and administrative support occupations; farming, fishing, and forestry occupations; and production occupations. As a result of the different growth rates among the major occupational groups, the occupational distribution of total employment will change somewhat by the year 2012, but the relative ranking of the groups by employment size is not expected to change. Professional and related occupations will continue to rank first, while farming, fishing, and forestry occupations will continue to rank last. Professional and related and service occupations will significantly increase their relative share of employment—by 1.5 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively. However, office and administrative support occupations and production occupations should decrease significantly—by 1.2 and 0.8 points, respectively. (See table 1.) The growth of occupational groups (and occupations) is determined, in large part, by growth in industries in which they are concentrated. For example, professional occupations are projected to grow the fastest, in large part because they are concentrated in some fast-growing industries such as healthcare and social assistance; and professional, scientific, and technical services; while production occupations are projected to grow very slowly, largely because 7 out of 10 are in the declining manufacturing sector.3 The number of management, business, and financial workers is projected to grow by 2.4 million from 2002 to 2012. Within this occupational group, about one-fifth of the new jobs will be in professional, scientific, and technical services, which include management, scientific, and technical consulting, and accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll services. About 1 new job in 8 is projected for finance and insurance, and 1 in 9, for healthcare and social assistance. The self-employed in this group, accounting for one-fifth of the total, are projected to decline 5.6 percent. Overall projected growth among management, business, and financial workers is affected by the decline of farmers and ranchers, most self-employed, by 238,000. (See table 2.) Excluding farmers and ranchers, this major group is projected to increase 18.3 percent. The self-employed, excluding self-employed farmers and ranchers, are projected to increase 4.0 percent, with the largest increase for management analysts. Employment in professional and related occupations is projected to grow the fastest and to add more workers (6.5 million) than any other major group. Three-tenths of the growth in these occupations is projected to take place in healthcare and social services, a quarter in government, and a seventh in professional, scientific, and technical services. There are eight occupational subgroups within professional and related occupations. Three occupational subgroups— education, training, and library; healthcare practitioners and technical; and computer and mathematical should account for three-quarters of the job growth. A 6.1-percent increase is projected for self-employed professional and related occupations. Most growth among self-employed is projected for two subgroups—arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations and computer and mathematical occupations. Education, training, and library occupations are projected to grow faster than the average for all occupations, adding 2.1 million jobs, as shown on p. 97 (also, see table 2): Text continues on p. 97 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 81 Occupational Table 2. Employment Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Change Percent distribution Number Percent 2002 00-0000 2012 Total, all occupations ...................................................................................................... 144,014 165,319 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 2002 2012 100.0 100.0 21,305 14.8 56,305 11-1300 Management, business, and financial occupations ..................................................... 15,501 17,883 10.8 10.8 2,382 15.4 5,319 11-0000 11-1000 11-1011 11-1021 11-1031 11-2000 11-2011 11-2020 11-2021 11-2022 11-2031 11-3000 11-3011 11-3021 11-3031 11-3040 11-3051 11-3061 11-3071 11-9000 11-9010 11-9011 11-9012 11-9021 11-9030 11-9031 11-9032 11-9033 11-9039 11-9041 11-9051 11-9061 11-9071 11-9081 11-9111 11-9121 11-9131 11-9141 11-9151 11-9199 Management occupations ....................................................................................... Top executives .................................................................................................... Chief executives .............................................................................................. General and operations managers .................................................................. Legislators ....................................................................................................... Advertising, marketing, promotions, public relations, and sales managers ........ Advertising and promotions managers ............................................................ Marketing and sales managers ....................................................................... Marketing managers ................................................................................... Sales managers .......................................................................................... Public relations managers ............................................................................... Operations specialties managers ........................................................................ Administrative services managers .................................................................. Computer and information systems managers ............................................... Financial managers ......................................................................................... Human resources managers ........................................................................... Industrial production managers ....................................................................... Purchasing managers ..................................................................................... Transportation, storage, and distribution managers ........................................ Other management occupations ......................................................................... Agricultural managers ..................................................................................... Farm, ranch, and other agricultural managers ............................................ Farmers and ranchers ................................................................................. Construction managers ................................................................................... Education administrators ................................................................................. Education administrators, preschool and child care center/program .......... Education administrators, elementary and secondary school ..................... Education administrators, postsecondary ................................................... Education administrators, all other .............................................................. Engineering managers .................................................................................... Food service managers ................................................................................... Funeral directors ............................................................................................. Gaming managers ........................................................................................... Lodging managers .......................................................................................... Medical and health services managers ........................................................... Natural sciences managers ............................................................................. Postmasters and mail superintendents ........................................................... Property, real estate, and community association managers ......................... Social and community service managers ........................................................ All other managers .......................................................................................... 10,056 2,669 553 2,049 67 700 85 546 203 343 69 1,807 321 284 599 202 182 108 111 4,880 1,376 218 1,158 389 427 58 217 125 27 212 386 24 6 69 244 45 25 293 129 1,256 11,277 3,138 645 2,425 68 885 107 693 246 448 85 2,163 384 387 709 242 197 113 133 5,090 1,149 229 920 435 527 77 262 157 32 231 430 26 7 73 315 51 25 330 164 1,325 7.0 1.9 .4 1.4 .0 .5 .1 .4 .1 .2 .0 1.3 .2 .2 .4 .1 .1 .1 .1 3.4 1.0 .2 .8 .3 .3 .0 .2 .1 .0 .1 .3 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .2 .1 .9 6.8 1.9 .4 1.5 .0 .5 .1 .4 .1 .3 .1 1.3 .2 .2 .4 .1 .1 .1 .1 3.1 .7 .1 .6 .3 .3 .0 .2 .1 .0 .1 .3 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .2 .1 .8 1,221 469 93 376 1 185 21 148 43 105 16 356 63 103 109 39 14 5 22 210 -227 11 -238 47 101 19 45 32 5 20 44 2 1 5 71 5 0 37 36 69 12.1 17.6 16.7 18.4 1.1 26.5 25.0 27.1 21.3 30.5 23.4 19.7 19.8 36.1 18.3 19.4 7.9 4.8 19.7 4.3 -16.5 5.1 -20.6 12.0 23.6 32.0 20.7 25.9 19.1 9.2 11.5 6.6 12.4 6.6 29.3 11.3 -.5 12.8 27.7 5.5 3,192 969 197 762 9 313 37 249 81 168 28 671 126 154 195 73 50 29 44 1,240 117 49 68 117 207 33 99 63 12 62 107 9 2 16 119 14 5 92 60 314 13-0000 13-1000 13-1011 13-1020 13-1021 13-1022 13-1023 13-1030 13-1031 13-1032 13-1041 Business and financial operations occupations ...................................................... Business operations specialists .......................................................................... Agents and business managers of artists, performers, and athletes .............. Buyers and purchasing agents ........................................................................ Purchasing agents and buyers, farm products ............................................ Wholesale and retail buyers, except farm products .................................... Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail, and farm products ................ Claims adjusters, appraisers, examiners, and investigators ........................... Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators .......................................... Insurance appraisers, auto damage ............................................................ Compliance officers, except agriculture, construction, health and safety, and transportation ............................................................................................. Cost estimators ............................................................................................... Emergency management specialists .............................................................. Human resources, training, and labor relations specialists4 ........................... Employment, recruitment, and placement specialists ................................. Compensation, benefits, and job analysis specialists ................................. Training and development specialists ......................................................... Management analysts ..................................................................................... Meeting and convention planners ................................................................... All other business operations specialists5 ....................................................... Financial specialists ............................................................................................ 5,445 3,177 15 419 19 155 245 241 227 14 6,606 3,910 19 455 21 162 273 275 260 16 3.8 2.2 .0 .3 .0 .1 .2 .2 .2 .0 4.0 2.4 .0 .3 .0 .1 .2 .2 .2 .0 1,162 733 4 36 2 7 27 34 32 2 21.3 23.1 27.8 8.6 10.2 4.3 11.2 14.0 14.2 11.7 2,127 1,295 7 144 8 47 88 64 60 3 158 188 11 474 175 91 209 577 37 1,056 2,268 173 223 14 606 223 116 267 753 45 1,346 2,696 .1 .1 .0 .3 .1 .1 .1 .4 .0 .7 1.6 .1 .1 .0 .4 .1 .1 .2 .5 .0 .8 1.6 15 35 3 131 48 25 58 176 8 290 429 9.8 18.6 28.2 27.7 27.3 28.0 27.9 30.4 21.3 27.5 18.9 52 77 6 204 75 39 90 255 16 470 832 13-1051 13-1061 13-1070 13-1071 13-1072 13-1073 13-1111 13-1121 13-1198 13-2000 82 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Percent distribution Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Number Percent 2002 2012 2002 2012 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 13-2011 13-2021 13-2031 13-2041 13-2050 13-2051 13-2052 13-2053 13-2061 13-2070 13-2071 13-2072 13-2080 13-2081 13-2082 13-2099 Accountants and auditors ................................................................................ Appraisers and assessors of real estate ......................................................... Budget analysts ............................................................................................... Credit analysts ................................................................................................ Financial analysts and advisors ...................................................................... Financial analysts ........................................................................................ Personal financial advisors ......................................................................... Insurance underwriters ................................................................................ Financial examiners ........................................................................................ Loan counselors and officers .......................................................................... Loan counselors .......................................................................................... Loan officers ................................................................................................ Tax examiners, collectors, preparers, and revenue agents ............................ Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue agents .......................................... Tax preparers .............................................................................................. All other financial specialists ........................................................................... 1,055 88 62 66 400 172 126 102 25 255 31 223 154 75 79 162 1,261 104 71 78 486 204 170 112 27 302 37 266 176 79 98 190 0.7 .1 .0 .0 .3 .1 .1 .1 .0 .2 .0 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 0.8 .1 .0 .0 .3 .1 .1 .1 .0 .2 .0 .2 .1 .0 .1 .1 205 16 9 12 86 32 44 10 2 48 6 42 22 4 18 28 19.5 17.6 14.0 18.7 21.5 18.7 34.6 10.0 8.9 18.7 17.8 18.8 14.4 5.0 23.2 17.6 405 34 19 23 146 58 60 28 8 89 11 78 52 21 32 57 15-2900 Professional and related occupations ......................................................................... 27,687 34,147 19.2 20.7 6,459 23.3 11,794 15-0000 15-1000 15-1011 15-1021 15-1030 15-1031 15-1032 15-1041 15-1051 15-1061 15-1071 15-1081 15-1099 15-2000 15-2011 15-2021 15-2031 15-2041 15-2090 Computer and mathematical science occupations .................................................. Computer specialists ........................................................................................... Computer and information scientists, research ............................................... Computer programmers .................................................................................. Computer software engineers ......................................................................... Computer software engineers, applications ................................................ Computer software engineers, systems software ....................................... Computer support specialists .......................................................................... Computer systems analysts ............................................................................ Database administrators ................................................................................. Network and computer systems administrators .............................................. Network systems and data communications analysts ..................................... All other computer specialists ......................................................................... Mathematical science occupations ..................................................................... Actuaries ......................................................................................................... Mathematicians ............................................................................................... Operations research analysts ......................................................................... Statisticians ..................................................................................................... Miscellaneous mathematical science occupations .......................................... 3,018 2,911 23 499 675 394 281 507 468 110 251 186 192 107 15 3 62 20 7 4,069 3,954 30 571 982 573 409 660 653 159 345 292 262 115 18 3 66 21 8 2.1 2.0 .0 .3 .5 .3 .2 .4 .3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 2.5 2.4 .0 .3 .6 .3 .2 .4 .4 .1 .2 .2 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1,051 1,043 7 73 307 179 128 153 184 49 94 106 70 8 2 0 4 1 1 34.8 35.8 29.9 14.6 45.5 45.5 45.5 30.3 39.4 44.2 37.4 57.0 36.5 7.4 14.9 -1.0 6.2 4.8 11.8 1,465 1,429 10 190 374 218 156 216 237 60 122 128 92 36 9 1 17 6 2 17-0000 17-1000 17-1010 17-1011 17-1012 17-1020 17-1021 17-1022 17-1099 17-2000 17-2011 17-2021 17-2031 17-2041 17-2051 17-2061 17-2070 17-2071 17-2072 17-2081 17-2110 17-2111 Architecture and engineering occupations .............................................................. Architects, surveyors, and cartographers ............................................................ Architects, except naval .................................................................................. Architects, except landscape and naval ...................................................... Landscape architects .................................................................................. Surveyors, cartographers, and photogrammetrists ......................................... Cartographers and photogrammetrists ....................................................... Surveyors .................................................................................................... All other architects, surveyors, and cartographers2 ........................................ Engineers ............................................................................................................ Aerospace engineers ...................................................................................... Agricultural engineers ..................................................................................... Biomedical engineers ...................................................................................... Chemical engineers ........................................................................................ Civil engineers ................................................................................................. Computer hardware engineers ........................................................................ Electrical and electronics engineers ................................................................ Electrical engineers ..................................................................................... Electronics engineers, except computer ..................................................... Environmental engineers ................................................................................ Industrial engineers, including health and safety ............................................ Health and safety engineers, except mining safety engineers and inspectors................................................................................................... Industrial engineers ..................................................................................... Marine engineers and naval architects ........................................................... Materials engineers ......................................................................................... Mechanical engineers ..................................................................................... Mining and geological engineers, including mining safety engineers ............. 2,587 204 136 113 23 64 9 56 3 1,478 78 3 8 33 228 74 292 156 136 47 194 2,809 233 161 133 28 68 10 58 4 1,587 74 3 10 33 246 78 309 160 149 65 213 1.8 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .2 .1 .2 .1 .1 .0 .1 1.7 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .2 .1 .1 .0 .1 222 29 25 20 5 4 1 2 0 109 -4 0 2 0 18 5 17 4 13 18 20 8.6 14.1 18.1 17.3 22.2 5.6 15.1 4.2 10.9 7.3 -5.2 10.3 26.1 .4 8.0 6.1 5.7 2.5 9.4 38.2 10.1 802 67 40 32 8 26 4 21 1 431 19 1 3 10 55 17 74 34 40 26 67 36 158 5 24 215 5 38 175 5 25 225 5 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 3 17 0 1 10 0 7.9 10.6 -5.0 4.1 4.8 -2.7 11 55 2 7 69 2 17-2112 17-2121 17-2131 17-2141 17-2151 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 83 Occupational Employment Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Percent distribution Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Number Percent 2002 2012 2002 2012 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 17-2161 17-2171 17-2199 17-3000 17-3010 17-3011 17-3012 17-3013 17-3020 17-3021 17-3022 17-3023 17-3024 17-3025 17-3026 17-3027 17-3031 17-3099 Nuclear engineers ........................................................................................... Petroleum engineers ....................................................................................... All other engineers .......................................................................................... Drafters, engineering, and mapping technicians ................................................. Drafters4 .......................................................................................................... Architectural and civil drafters ..................................................................... Electrical and electronics drafters ............................................................... Mechanical drafters ..................................................................................... Engineering technicians, except drafters4 ...................................................... Aerospace engineering and operations technicians ................................... Civil engineering technicians ....................................................................... Electrical and electronic engineering technicians ....................................... Electro-mechanical technicians ................................................................... Environmental engineering technicians ...................................................... Industrial engineering technicians ............................................................... Mechanical engineering technicians ........................................................... Surveying and mapping technicians ............................................................... All other drafters, engineering, and mapping technicians2 ............................. 16 14 243 905 216 106 38 72 478 15 92 204 31 19 62 55 60 150 16 12 267 990 222 110 38 74 526 15 99 224 35 24 67 61 74 167 0.0 .0 .2 .6 .2 .1 .0 .1 .3 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 0.0 .0 .2 .6 .1 .1 .0 .0 .3 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 0 -1 24 85 6 4 0 1 48 0 7 20 4 5 5 6 14 17 -0.1 -9.8 9.7 9.4 2.8 4.2 .7 1.9 10.1 1.5 7.6 10.0 11.5 28.4 8.7 11.0 23.1 11.3 5 4 70 304 67 34 11 22 148 3 26 63 10 9 18 18 36 53 19-0000 19-1000 19-1010 19-1020 19-1021 19-1022 19-1023 19-1029 19-1030 19-1031 19-1032 19-1040 19-1041 19-1042 19-1099 19-2000 19-2010 19-2011 19-2012 19-2021 19-2030 19-2031 19-2032 19-2040 19-2041 19-2042 19-2043 19-2099 19-3000 19-3011 19-3020 19-3021 19-3022 19-3030 19-3031 19-3032 19-3041 19-3051 19-3090 19-3091 19-3092 19-3093 19-3094 19-3098 19-4000 19-4011 19-4021 19-4031 Life, physical, and social science occupations ........................................................ Life scientists ....................................................................................................... Agricultural and food scientists ....................................................................... Biological scientists ......................................................................................... Biochemists and biophysicists .................................................................... Microbiologists ............................................................................................ Zoologists and wildlife biologists ................................................................. Biological scientists, all other ...................................................................... Conservation scientists and foresters ............................................................. Conservation scientists ............................................................................... Foresters ..................................................................................................... Medical scientists ............................................................................................ Epidemiologists ........................................................................................... Medical scientists, except epidemiologists .................................................. All other life scientists ...................................................................................... Physical scientists ............................................................................................... Astronomers and physicists ............................................................................ Astronomers ................................................................................................ Physicists .................................................................................................... Atmospheric and space scientists ................................................................... Chemists and materials scientists ................................................................... Chemists ..................................................................................................... Materials scientists ...................................................................................... Environmental scientists and geoscientists ..................................................... Environmental scientists and specialists, including health .......................... Geoscientists, except hydrologists and geographers .................................. Hydrologists ................................................................................................ All other physical scientists ............................................................................. Social scientists and related occupations ........................................................... Economists ...................................................................................................... Market and survey researchers ....................................................................... Market research analysts ............................................................................ Survey researchers ..................................................................................... Psychologists4 ................................................................................................ Clinical, counseling, and school psychologists ........................................... Industrial-organizational psychologists ....................................................... Sociologists ..................................................................................................... Urban and regional planners ........................................................................... Miscellaneous social scientists and related workers3 ..................................... Anthropologists and archeologists .............................................................. Geographers ............................................................................................... Historians .................................................................................................... Political scientists ........................................................................................ All other social scientists and related workers5 ............................................... Life, physical, and social science technicians ..................................................... Agricultural and food science technicians ....................................................... Biological technicians ...................................................................................... Chemical technicians ...................................................................................... 1,237 214 18 75 17 16 15 27 33 19 14 62 4 58 26 251 14 1 13 8 91 84 7 101 65 28 8 37 426 16 155 134 20 139 137 2 3 32 14 5 1 2 6 68 346 20 48 69 1,450 253 20 90 21 20 16 33 34 20 14 79 5 73 31 287 15 1 14 9 103 95 8 121 80 31 10 39 512 18 193 166 27 173 171 2 3 36 15 5 1 2 6 74 397 22 57 72 .9 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0 .9 .2 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0 212 39 2 14 4 3 1 6 1 1 1 17 1 16 5 36 1 0 1 1 11 11 1 20 15 3 2 2 86 2 38 31 7 34 34 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 7 51 2 9 3 17.2 18.2 9.1 19.0 22.9 20.0 7.7 22.3 4.4 4.1 4.7 27.3 32.5 26.9 18.3 14.4 6.8 4.9 6.9 16.2 12.4 12.7 8.5 20.1 23.7 11.5 21.0 6.5 20.1 13.4 24.7 23.4 33.6 24.3 24.4 16.0 13.4 10.7 9.2 12.8 19.5 6.6 5.9 9.7 14.8 9.3 19.4 4.7 511 91 5 38 9 8 6 15 11 6 5 28 2 26 9 100 6 0 5 4 41 38 3 38 27 8 3 11 190 7 78 66 12 64 63 1 1 14 4 2 0 1 2 21 130 6 17 20 84 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Percent distribution Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Number Percent 2002 2012 11 6 67 38 10 20 161 2002 2012 0.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 0.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 19-4041 19-4051 19-4090 19-4091 19-4092 19-4093 19-4098 Geological and petroleum technicians ............................................................ Nuclear technicians ......................................................................................... Other life, physical, and social science technicians3 ...................................... Environmental science and protection technicians, including health .......... Forensic science technicians ...................................................................... Forest and conservation technicians ........................................................... All other life, physical, and social science technicians5 .................................. 11 6 55 28 8 19 137 21-0000 21-1000 2,190 2,764 1.5 1.7 574 26.2 992 21-1010 21-1011 21-1012 21-1013 21-1014 21-1015 21-1020 21-1021 21-1022 21-1023 21-1090 21-1091 21-1092 21-1093 21-2000 21-2011 21-2021 21-9099 Community and social services occupations .......................................................... Counselors, social workers, and other community and social service ................................................................................................. specialists4 Counselors4 .................................................................................................... Substance abuse and behavioral disorder counselors ............................... Educational, vocational, and school counselors ......................................... Marriage and family therapists .................................................................... Mental health counselors ............................................................................ Rehabilitation counselors ............................................................................ Social workers4 ............................................................................................... Child, family, and school social workers ..................................................... Medical and public health social workers .................................................... Mental health and substance abuse social workers .................................... Miscellaneous community and social service specialists4 .............................. Health educators ......................................................................................... Probation officers and correctional treatment specialists ............................ Social and human service assistants .......................................................... Religious workers4 .............................................................................................. Clergy .............................................................................................................. Directors, religious activities and education .................................................... All other counselors, social, and religious workers2 ............................................ 1,436 526 67 228 23 85 122 477 274 107 95 434 45 84 305 506 400 105 248 1,853 645 83 262 29 107 164 604 338 138 128 605 54 97 454 593 463 131 318 1.0 .4 .0 .2 .0 .1 .1 .3 .2 .1 .1 .3 .0 .1 .2 .4 .3 .1 .2 1.1 .4 .1 .2 .0 .1 .1 .4 .2 .1 .1 .4 .0 .1 .3 .4 .3 .1 .2 417 119 16 34 5 23 41 127 64 31 33 171 10 12 149 87 62 25 70 29.0 22.6 23.3 15.0 22.4 26.7 33.8 26.7 23.2 28.6 34.5 39.4 21.9 14.7 48.7 17.3 15.5 24.1 28.3 695 239 31 86 11 42 69 209 111 49 49 247 18 27 202 181 144 37 116 23-0000 23-1000 23-1011 23-1020 23-1021 23-1022 23-1023 23-2000 23-2011 23-2090 23-2091 23-2092 23-2093 23-9099 Legal occupations ................................................................................................... Lawyers, judges, and related workers ................................................................. Lawyers ........................................................................................................... Judges, magistrates, and other judicial workers ............................................. Administrative law judges, adjudicators, and hearing officers ..................... Arbitrators, mediators, and conciliators ....................................................... Judges, magistrate judges, and magistrates ............................................... Legal support workers ......................................................................................... Paralegals and legal assistants ....................................................................... Miscellaneous legal support workers4 ............................................................ Court reporters ............................................................................................ Law clerks ................................................................................................... Title examiners, abstractors, and searchers ............................................... All other legal and related workers2 .................................................................... 1,168 747 695 51 19 6 27 320 200 121 18 48 55 101 1,357 869 813 56 20 7 29 380 257 123 20 50 53 109 .8 .5 .5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .8 .5 .5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 190 122 118 4 1 1 2 60 57 3 2 2 -1 8 16.2 16.4 17.0 8.3 5.8 13.7 8.7 18.7 28.7 2.1 12.7 3.7 -2.7 7.6 327 218 207 11 3 2 6 91 73 17 4 7 6 19 25-0000 25-1000 25-2000 25-2010 25-2011 25-2012 25-2020 25-2021 25-2022 25-2023 25-2030 25-2031 25-2032 25-2040 25-3000 25-3011 25-3021 25-3999 25-4000 25-4010 25-4021 25-4031 Education, training, and library occupations ........................................................... Postsecondary teachers ...................................................................................... Primary, secondary, and special education teachers .......................................... Preschool and kindergarten teachers ............................................................. Preschool teachers, except special education ............................................ Kindergarten teachers, except special education ....................................... Elementary and middle school teachers ......................................................... Elementary school teachers, except special education .............................. Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education .............. Vocational education teachers, middle school ............................................ Secondary school teachers ............................................................................. Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education ....... Vocational education teachers, secondary school ...................................... Special education teachers ............................................................................. Other teachers and instructors ............................................................................ Adult literacy, remedial education, and GED teachers and instructors ........... Self-enrichment education teachers ................................................................ All other teachers, primary, secondary, and adult2 ......................................... Librarians, curators, and archivists ..................................................................... Archivists, curators, and museum technicians ................................................ Librarians ........................................................................................................ Library technicians .......................................................................................... 8,530 1,581 4,187 592 424 168 2,070 1,467 585 18 1,093 988 105 433 960 80 200 679 309 22 167 119 10,639 2,184 4,983 791 577 214 2,347 1,690 637 19 1,282 1,167 115 563 1,285 96 281 908 349 26 184 139 5.9 1.1 2.9 .4 .3 .1 1.4 1.0 .4 .0 .8 .7 .1 .3 .7 .1 .1 .5 .2 .0 .1 .1 6.4 1.3 3.0 .5 .3 .1 1.4 1.0 .4 .0 .8 .7 .1 .3 .8 .1 .2 .5 .2 .0 .1 .1 2,109 603 795 199 153 46 277 223 52 2 189 180 10 130 325 16 80 229 41 4 17 20 24.7 38.1 19.0 33.6 36.2 27.2 13.4 15.2 9.0 9.0 17.3 18.2 9.0 30.0 33.9 20.4 40.1 33.7 13.2 17.0 10.1 16.8 3,890 960 1,733 270 204 66 734 547 182 5 497 458 39 233 444 26 105 312 129 9 57 64 Monthly Labor Review 0 0 12 10 2 1 24 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 1.3 1.5 22.8 36.8 18.9 4.0 17.5 3 2 25 17 4 5 56 February 2004 85 Occupational Employment Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Change Percent distribution Number Percent 2002 2012 2002 2012 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 25-9000 25-9011 25-9021 25-9031 25-9041 25-9199 Other education, training, and library occupations .............................................. Audio-visual collections specialists ................................................................. Farm and home management advisors .......................................................... Instructional coordinators ................................................................................ Teacher assistants .......................................................................................... All other library, museum, training, and other education workers2 ................. 1,493 10 16 98 1,277 93 1,838 11 17 123 1,571 116 1.0 .0 .0 .1 .9 .1 1.1 .0 .0 .1 1.0 .1 345 2 1 25 294 23 23.1 16.3 6.9 25.4 23.0 24.6 624 3 3 40 541 37 27-0000 27-1000 27-1010 27-1011 27-1013 27-1014 27-1020 27-1021 27-1022 27-1023 27-1024 27-1025 27-1026 27-1027 27-1099 27-2000 27-2010 27-2011 27-2012 27-2020 27-2021 27-2022 27-2023 27-2030 27-2031 27-2032 27-2040 27-2041 27-2042 27-2099 27-3000 27-3010 27-3020 27-3031 27-3040 27-3041 27-3042 27-3043 27-3090 27-3091 27-3099 27-4000 27-4010 27-4011 27-4012 27-4013 27-4014 27-4021 27-4030 27-4031 27-4032 27-4099 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations .................................. Art and design occupations ................................................................................. Artists and related workers .............................................................................. Art directors ................................................................................................. Fine artists, including painters, sculptors, and illustrators ........................... Multi-media artists and animators ............................................................... Designers ........................................................................................................ Commercial and industrial designers .......................................................... Fashion designers ....................................................................................... Floral designers ........................................................................................... Graphic designers ....................................................................................... Interior designers ........................................................................................ Merchandise displayers and window trimmers ........................................... Set and exhibit designers ............................................................................ All other art and design workers5 .................................................................... Entertainers and performers, sports and related occupations ............................ Actors, producers, and directors ..................................................................... Actors .......................................................................................................... Producers and directors .............................................................................. Athletes, coaches, umpires, and related workers ........................................... Athletes and sports competitors .................................................................. Coaches and scouts .................................................................................... Umpires, referees, and other sports officials ............................................... Dancers and choreographers .......................................................................... Dancers ....................................................................................................... Choreographers .......................................................................................... Musicians, singers, and related workers ......................................................... Music directors and composers .................................................................. Musicians and singers ................................................................................. All other entertainers and performers, sports and related workers ................. Media and communication occupations .............................................................. Announcers ..................................................................................................... News analysts, reporters and correspondents ................................................ Public relations specialists .............................................................................. Writers and editors .......................................................................................... Editors ......................................................................................................... Technical writers ......................................................................................... Writers and authors ..................................................................................... Miscellaneous media and communications workers ....................................... Interpreters and translators ......................................................................... All other media and communication workers .............................................. Media and communication equipment occupations ............................................ Broadcast and sound engineering technicians and radio operators ............... Audio and video equipment technicians ...................................................... Broadcast technicians ................................................................................. Radio operators ........................................................................................... Sound engineering technicians ................................................................... Photographers ................................................................................................. Television, video, and motion picture camera operators and editors .............. Camera operators, television, video, and motion picture ............................ Film and video editors ................................................................................. All other media and communication equipment workers ................................. 2,377 775 149 51 23 75 532 52 15 104 212 60 77 12 95 606 139 63 76 158 15 130 14 37 20 17 215 54 161 56 700 76 66 158 319 130 50 139 82 24 58 295 93 42 35 3 13 130 48 28 19 24 2,769 900 170 56 27 87 625 59 16 117 258 73 86 15 106 709 164 74 90 187 18 153 16 42 22 20 250 62 189 65 815 68 70 210 370 145 63 161 97 29 68 345 111 53 39 3 16 148 56 32 25 29 1.7 .5 .1 .0 .0 .1 .4 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .1 .4 .1 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .5 .1 .0 .1 .2 .1 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.7 .5 .1 .0 .0 .1 .4 .0 .0 .1 .2 .0 .1 .0 .1 .4 .1 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .1 .0 .5 .0 .0 .1 .2 .1 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 393 125 21 6 4 12 93 8 2 13 46 13 9 3 11 103 25 11 14 29 3 24 2 5 2 3 35 7 27 9 115 -8 4 52 51 15 13 22 15 5 10 50 18 11 4 0 3 18 9 4 5 5 16.5 16.1 14.4 11.4 16.5 15.8 17.4 14.7 10.6 12.4 21.9 21.7 11.3 20.9 11.5 17.0 18.0 17.7 18.3 18.3 19.2 18.3 16.9 13.3 11.1 15.8 16.2 13.5 17.1 16.4 16.4 -10.1 6.2 32.9 16.0 11.8 27.1 16.1 18.6 22.1 17.2 16.9 19.6 26.7 11.3 -6.2 25.5 13.6 18.7 13.4 26.4 20.1 847 245 54 17 9 28 164 15 4 27 75 21 19 4 28 228 44 19 25 59 6 49 5 28 15 13 80 19 61 16 260 19 20 75 121 47 28 46 25 8 17 115 41 21 13 1 6 44 19 10 9 10 29-0000 29-1000 29-1011 29-1020 29-1031 29-1041 29-1051 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations ................................................ Health diagnosing and treating practitioners ....................................................... Chiropractors ................................................................................................... Dentists ........................................................................................................... Dietitians and nutritionists ............................................................................... Optometrists .................................................................................................... Pharmacists .................................................................................................... 6,580 4,071 49 153 49 32 230 8,288 5,125 60 159 58 38 299 4.6 2.8 .0 .1 .0 .0 .2 5.0 3.1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .2 1,708 1,054 11 6 9 5 69 26.0 25.9 23.3 4.1 17.8 17.1 30.1 2,959 1,849 21 32 21 14 114 86 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 Table 2. Continued—Employment and occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Change Percent distribution Number Percent 2002 2012 2002 2012 29-1060 29-1071 29-1081 29-1111 29-1120 29-1121 29-1122 29-1123 29-1124 29-1125 29-1126 29-1127 29-1131 29-1198 29-2000 29-2010 29-2011 29-2012 29-2021 29-2030 29-2031 29-2032 29-2033 29-2034 29-2041 29-2050 29-2051 29-2052 29-2053 29-2054 29-2055 29-2056 29-2061 29-2071 29-2081 29-2090 29-2091 29-9000 29-9010 29-9090 29-9091 29-9199 Physicians and surgeons ................................................................................ Physician assistants ........................................................................................ Podiatrists ....................................................................................................... Registered nurses ........................................................................................... Therapists4 ...................................................................................................... Audiologists ................................................................................................. Occupational therapists ............................................................................... Physical therapists ...................................................................................... Radiation therapists .................................................................................... Recreational therapists ............................................................................... Respiratory therapists ................................................................................. Speech-language pathologists .................................................................... Veterinarians ................................................................................................... All other health diagnosing and treating practitioners5 ................................... Health technologists and technicians4 ................................................................ Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians ............................................ Medical and clinical laboratory technologists .............................................. Medical and clinical laboratory technicians ................................................. Dental hygienists ............................................................................................. Diagnostic related technologists and technicians ........................................... Cardiovascular technologists and technicians ............................................ Diagnostic medical sonographers ............................................................... Nuclear medicine technologists .................................................................. Radiologic technologists and technicians ................................................... Emergency medical technicians and paramedics ........................................... Health diagnosing and treating practitioner support technicians ..................... Dietetic technicians ..................................................................................... Pharmacy technicians ................................................................................. Psychiatric technicians ................................................................................ Respiratory therapy technicians .................................................................. Surgical technologists ................................................................................. Veterinary technologists and technicians .................................................... Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses ......................................... Medical records and health information technicians ....................................... Opticians, dispensing ...................................................................................... Miscelaneous health technologists and technicians4 ...................................... Orthotists and prosthetists .......................................................................... Other healthcare practitioners and technical occupations4 ................................. Occupational health and safety specialists and technicians ........................... Miscelaneous health practitioners and technical workers4 ............................. Athletic trainers ........................................................................................... All other health practitioners and technical workers5 .......................................... 583 63 13 2,284 450 11 82 137 14 27 86 94 58 107 2,263 297 150 147 148 271 43 37 17 174 179 451 29 211 60 26 72 53 702 147 63 5 5 56 41 14 14 190 697 94 15 2,908 592 14 110 185 18 29 116 120 72 134 2,857 355 179 176 212 338 58 45 21 214 238 574 35 271 63 35 92 76 844 216 75 6 6 65 47 19 19 241 0.4 .0 .0 1.6 .3 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 1.6 .2 .1 .1 .1 .2 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .3 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .5 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 0.4 .1 .0 1.8 .4 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 1.7 .2 .1 .1 .1 .2 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .3 .0 .2 .0 .0 .1 .0 .5 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 31-3900 Service occupations .................................................................................................... 26,569 31,905 18.4 19.3 31-0000 31-1000 31-1011 31-1012 31-1013 31-2000 31-2010 31-2011 31-2012 31-2020 31-2021 31-2022 31-9000 31-9011 31-9090 31-9091 31-9092 31-9093 31-9094 31-9095 31-9096 31-9099 Healthcare support occupations .............................................................................. Nursing, psychiatric, and home health aides ...................................................... Home health aides .......................................................................................... Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants ......................................................... Psychiatric aides ............................................................................................. Occupational and physical therapist assistants and aides .................................. Occupational therapist assistants and aides ................................................... Occupational therapist assistants ............................................................... Occupational therapist aides ....................................................................... Physical therapist assistants and aides .......................................................... Physical therapist assistants ....................................................................... Physical therapist aides .............................................................................. Other healthcare support occupations ................................................................ Massage therapists ......................................................................................... Miscellaneous healthcare support occupations .............................................. Dental assistants ......................................................................................... Medical assistants ....................................................................................... Medical equipment preparers ...................................................................... Medical transcriptionists .............................................................................. Pharmacy aides .......................................................................................... Veterinary assistants and laboratory animal caretakers ............................. All other healthcare support workers ........................................................... 3,310 2,014 580 1,375 59 114 27 18 8 87 50 37 1,182 92 1,090 266 365 36 101 60 63 198 4,452 2,645 859 1,718 68 164 38 26 12 127 73 54 1,644 117 1,527 379 579 43 124 71 79 251 2.3 1.4 .4 1.0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .8 .1 .8 .2 .3 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 2.7 1.6 .5 1.0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 1.0 .1 .9 .2 .4 .0 .1 .0 .0 .2 Monthly Labor Review 114 31 2 623 142 3 29 48 4 2 30 26 14 26 593 58 29 29 64 67 15 9 4 40 59 123 6 61 4 9 20 23 142 69 11 1 1 10 5 4 4 52 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 19.5 48.9 15.0 27.3 31.7 29.0 35.2 35.3 31.6 9.1 34.8 27.2 25.1 24.5 26.2 19.4 19.3 19.4 43.1 24.8 33.5 24.0 23.6 22.9 33.1 27.2 20.2 28.8 5.9 34.2 27.9 44.1 20.2 46.8 18.2 18.9 18.9 17.4 13.2 29.9 29.9 27.2 191 40 5 1,101 231 6 40 62 7 9 58 49 28 50 1,002 138 69 68 76 118 23 16 7 72 80 181 10 88 11 12 30 30 295 90 23 2 2 22 14 7 7 86 5,336 20.1 12,962 1,143 630 279 343 9 50 11 7 4 40 22 17 462 25 437 113 215 7 23 11 16 53 34.5 31.3 48.1 24.9 14.5 44.2 40.2 39.2 42.6 45.4 44.6 46.4 39.1 27.1 40.1 42.5 58.9 18.1 22.6 17.6 26.2 26.6 1,669 894 355 523 16 68 14 10 5 54 31 23 706 43 664 187 282 13 41 22 28 89 February 2004 87 Occupational Employment Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Change Percent distribution Number Percent 2002 2012 2002 2012 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 33-0000 33-1000 33-1010 33-1011 33-1012 33-1021 33-1099 33-2000 33-2011 33-2020 33-3000 33-3010 33-3011 33-3012 33-3021 33-3031 33-3041 33-3050 33-3051 33-3052 33-9000 33-9011 33-9021 33-9030 33-9031 33-9032 33-9091 33-9095 Protective service occupations ................................................................................ First-line supervisors/managers, protective service workers .............................. First-line supervisors/managers, law enforcement workers ............................ First-line supervisors/managers of correctional officers .............................. First-line supervisors/managers of police and detectives ........................... First-line supervisors/managers of fire fighting and prevention workers ......... All other first-line supervisors/managers, protective service workers ............. Fire fighting and prevention workers ................................................................... Fire fighters ..................................................................................................... Fire inspectors ................................................................................................. Law enforcement workers ................................................................................... Bailiffs, correctional officers, and jailers .......................................................... Bailiffs .......................................................................................................... Correctional officers and jailers ................................................................... Detectives and criminal investigators .............................................................. Fish and game wardens .................................................................................. Parking enforcement workers ......................................................................... Police officers .................................................................................................. Police and sheriff’s patrol officers ............................................................... Transit and railroad police ........................................................................... Other protective service workers ......................................................................... Animal control workers .................................................................................... Private detectives and investigators ................................................................ Security guards and gaming surveillance officers ........................................... Gaming surveillance officers and gaming investigators .............................. Security guards ........................................................................................... Crossing guards .............................................................................................. All other protective service workers5 ............................................................... 3,116 266 147 33 114 63 56 296 282 14 1,179 442 15 427 94 8 11 625 619 6 1,374 11 48 1,004 9 995 74 237 3,885 315 171 40 131 74 70 356 340 16 1,460 547 16 531 115 8 12 779 772 7 1,753 12 60 1,324 11 1,313 86 271 2.2 .2 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .2 .2 .0 .8 .3 .0 .3 .1 .0 .0 .4 .4 .0 1.0 .0 .0 .7 .0 .7 .1 .2 2.4 .2 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .2 .2 .0 .9 .3 .0 .3 .1 .0 .0 .5 .5 .0 1.1 .0 .0 .8 .0 .8 .1 .2 769 49 24 6 17 12 13 60 58 2 281 105 1 103 21 1 1 154 153 1 379 1 12 319 2 317 12 34 24.7 18.3 16.1 19.0 15.3 18.7 23.9 20.3 20.7 11.6 23.9 23.7 9.5 24.2 22.4 7.1 11.5 24.6 24.7 15.9 27.6 12.6 25.3 31.8 24.6 31.9 16.5 14.3 1,649 136 71 16 55 37 28 146 140 6 563 197 5 192 46 2 3 315 313 2 804 9 22 538 4 534 36 199 35-0000 35-1000 35-1011 35-1012 35-2000 35-2010 35-2011 35-2012 35-2013 35-2014 35-2015 35-2021 35-3000 35-3011 35-3020 35-3021 35-3022 35-3031 35-3041 35-9000 35-9011 35-9021 35-9031 35-9098 Food preparation and serving related occupations ................................................. Supervisors, food preparation and serving workers ............................................ Chefs and head cooks .................................................................................... First-line supervisors/managers of food preparation and serving workers ...... Cooks and food preparation workers4 ................................................................ Cooks4 ............................................................................................................ Cooks, fast food .......................................................................................... Cooks, institution and cafeteria ................................................................... Cooks, private household ............................................................................ Cooks, restaurant ........................................................................................ Cooks, short order ....................................................................................... Food preparation workers ............................................................................... Food and beverage serving workers ................................................................... Bartenders ....................................................................................................... Fast food and counter workers ........................................................................ Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food ........ Counter attendants, cafeteria, food concession, and coffee shop .............. Waiters and waitresses ................................................................................... Food servers, nonrestaurant ........................................................................... Other food preparation and serving related workers4 ......................................... Dining room and cafeteria attendants and bartender helpers ......................... Dishwashers .................................................................................................... Hosts and hostesses, restaurant, lounge, and coffee shop ............................ All other food preparation and serving related workers5 ................................. 10,200 824 132 692 2,836 1,986 588 436 8 727 227 850 5,211 463 2,457 1,990 467 2,097 195 1,328 409 505 298 117 11,807 952 153 800 3,182 2,160 617 445 8 843 247 1,022 6,171 503 2,989 2,444 545 2,464 215 1,502 470 551 347 134 7.1 .6 .1 .5 2.0 1.4 .4 .3 .0 .5 .2 .6 3.6 .3 1.7 1.4 .3 1.5 .1 .9 .3 .4 .2 .1 7.1 .6 .1 .5 1.9 1.3 .4 .3 .0 .5 .1 .6 3.7 .3 1.8 1.5 .3 1.5 .1 .9 .3 .3 .2 .1 1,607 128 21 107 346 174 29 9 0 116 20 172 960 40 532 454 78 367 20 173 61 46 49 18 15.8 15.6 15.8 15.5 12.2 8.8 4.9 2.1 -5.4 15.9 9.0 20.2 18.4 8.6 21.7 22.8 16.7 17.5 10.4 13.0 14.9 9.0 16.4 15.2 5,659 332 60 272 1,262 789 211 144 3 341 91 473 3,454 223 1,699 1,317 383 1,446 85 611 198 216 143 54 37-0000 37-1000 37-1011 37-1012 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations ............................... Supervisors, building and grounds cleaning and maintenance workers ............. First-line supervisors/managers of housekeeping and janitorial workers ........ First-line supervisors/managers of landscaping, lawn service, and groundskeeping workers ............................................................................ Building cleaning and pest control workers ......................................................... Building cleaning workers4 .............................................................................. Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners .............. Maids and housekeeping cleaners .............................................................. Pest control workers ........................................................................................ Grounds maintenance workers ........................................................................... Grounds maintenance workers4 ..................................................................... 5,485 380 230 6,386 449 267 3.8 .3 .2 3.9 .3 .2 901 70 37 16.4 18.4 16.2 2,000 138 92 150 3,820 3,759 2,267 1,492 62 1,285 1,160 182 4,381 4,309 2,681 1,629 72 1,555 1,410 .1 2.7 2.6 1.6 1.0 .0 .9 .8 .1 2.7 2.6 1.6 1.0 .0 .9 .9 32 561 550 414 137 10 270 250 21.6 14.7 14.6 18.3 9.2 17.0 21.0 21.5 46 1,314 1,294 844 450 20 548 503 37-2000 37-2010 37-2011 37-2012 37-2021 37-3000 37-3010 88 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Change Percent distribution Number Percent 2002 2012 2002 2012 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 37-3011 37-3012 37-3013 37-9099 Landscaping and groundskeeping workers ................................................. Pesticide handlers, sprayers, and applicators, vegetation .......................... Tree trimmers and pruners .......................................................................... All other building and grounds cleaning and maintenance workers5 .............. 1,074 27 59 125 1,311 30 69 145 0.7 .0 .0 .1 0.8 .0 .0 .1 237 3 11 20 22.0 9.7 18.6 16.1 470 9 24 46 39-0000 39-1000 39-1010 39-1011 39-1012 39-1021 39-2000 39-2011 39-2021 39-3000 39-3010 39-3011 39-3012 39-3021 39-3031 39-3090 39-3091 39-3092 39-3093 39-3199 39-4000 39-4011 39-4021 39-5000 39-5010 39-5011 39-5012 39-5090 39-5091 39-5092 39-5093 39-5094 39-6000 39-6010 39-6011 39-6012 39-6020 39-6021 39-6022 39-6030 39-6031 39-6032 39-9000 39-9011 39-9021 39-9030 39-9031 39-9032 39-9041 39-9099 Personal care and service occupations .................................................................. Supervisors, personal care and service workers ................................................ First-line supervisors/managers of gaming workers ........................................ Gaming supervisors .................................................................................... Slot key persons .......................................................................................... First-line supervisors/managers of personal service workers ......................... Animal care and service workers ........................................................................ Animal trainers ................................................................................................ Nonfarm animal caretakers ............................................................................. Entertainment attendants and related workers ................................................... Gaming services workers4 .............................................................................. Gaming dealers ........................................................................................... Gaming and sports book writers and runners ............................................. Motion picture projectionists ............................................................................ Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers .................................................... Miscellaneous entertainment attendants and related workers4 ...................... Amusement and recreation attendants ....................................................... Costume attendants .................................................................................... Locker room, coatroom, and dressing room attendants .............................. All other gaming service workers2 .................................................................. Funeral service workers ...................................................................................... Embalmers ...................................................................................................... Funeral attendants .......................................................................................... Personal appearance workers ............................................................................ Barbers and cosmetologists ............................................................................ Barbers ........................................................................................................ Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists ............................................ Miscellaneous personal appearance workers ................................................. Makeup artists, theatrical and performance ................................................ Manicurists and pedicurists ......................................................................... Shampooers ................................................................................................ Skin care specialists .................................................................................... Transportation, tourism, and lodging attendants ................................................. Baggage porters, bellhops, and concierges .................................................... Baggage porters and bellhops .................................................................... Concierges .................................................................................................. Tour and travel guides .................................................................................... Tour guides and escorts .............................................................................. Travel guides ............................................................................................... Transportation attendants ............................................................................... Flight attendants .......................................................................................... Transportation attendants, except flight attendants and baggage porters .. Other personal care and service workers ........................................................... Child care workers .......................................................................................... Personal and home care aides ....................................................................... Recreation and fitness workers ....................................................................... Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors .................................................... Recreation workers ..................................................................................... Residential advisors ........................................................................................ Personal care and service workers, all other .................................................. 4,458 276 60 39 21 216 151 26 125 507 92 78 14 9 105 261 234 4 23 40 33 7 26 754 651 66 585 103 2 51 25 25 248 75 58 17 43 36 6 130 104 26 2,490 1,211 608 485 183 302 53 134 5,375 305 69 45 24 236 183 30 153 626 115 97 18 9 121 333 299 5 29 49 38 7 31 865 741 70 671 124 2 63 29 30 284 86 67 20 47 40 6 152 121 31 3,073 1,353 854 628 264 364 71 168 3.1 .2 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .4 .1 .1 .0 .0 .1 .2 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .5 .5 .0 .4 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 1.7 .8 .4 .3 .1 .2 .0 .1 3.3 .2 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .4 .1 .1 .0 .0 .1 .2 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .5 .4 .0 .4 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 1.9 .8 .5 .4 .2 .2 .0 .1 917 29 9 6 3 20 32 4 28 119 23 19 3 0 16 72 65 1 6 9 5 1 5 111 90 4 86 21 0 12 4 5 36 11 8 3 4 4 0 22 17 5 583 142 246 143 81 62 18 35 20.6 10.7 15.4 15.7 14.8 9.4 20.8 14.3 22.2 23.6 24.7 24.7 24.4 .4 15.5 27.6 27.8 25.1 26.5 21.3 16.7 8.3 18.9 14.7 13.8 6.5 14.7 20.3 18.2 22.7 16.6 19.4 14.7 14.6 14.4 15.3 9.3 11.0 -.3 16.5 15.9 18.9 23.4 11.7 40.5 29.5 44.5 20.5 33.6 25.9 1,985 96 22 14 8 74 68 9 59 300 52 44 8 5 76 147 132 2 13 21 12 2 10 262 221 23 199 41 1 21 9 10 84 31 24 7 15 14 2 38 30 8 1,161 471 343 254 123 131 29 63 41-0000 Sales and related occupations .................................................................................... 15,260 17,231 10.6 10.4 1,971 12.9 6,904 41-1000 41-1011 41-1012 41-2000 41-2010 41-2011 41-2012 41-2020 41-2021 Supervisors, sales workers ..................................................................................... First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers ...................................... First-line supervisors/managers of non-retail sales workers ............................... Retail sales workers ................................................................................................ Cashiers .............................................................................................................. Cashiers, except gaming ................................................................................. Gaming change persons and booth cashiers .................................................. Counter and rental clerks and parts salespersons .............................................. Counter and rental clerks ................................................................................ 2,395 1,798 597 8,224 3,465 3,432 33 683 436 2,599 1,962 637 9,392 3,927 3,886 41 793 550 1.7 1.2 .4 5.7 2.4 2.4 .0 .5 .3 1.6 1.2 .4 5.7 2.4 2.4 .0 .5 .3 204 163 41 1,167 462 454 8 109 114 8.5 9.1 6.8 14.2 13.3 13.2 24.1 16.0 26.3 640 486 153 4,578 2,148 2,124 24 352 281 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 89 Occupational Employment Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Percent distribution Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Number Percent 2002 41-2022 41-2031 41-3000 41-3011 41-3021 41-3031 41-3041 41-4000 41-4011 41-9000 41-9010 41-9011 41-9012 41-9020 41-9021 41-9022 41-9031 41-9041 41-9091 41-9098 Parts salespersons .......................................................................................... Retail salespersons ............................................................................................. Sales representatives, services4 ............................................................................. Advertising sales agents ..................................................................................... Insurance sales agents ....................................................................................... Securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents ............................. Travel agents ...................................................................................................... Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing ............................................. Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products ...................................................................................................... Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products ....................................................................................... Other sales and related workers ............................................................................. Models, demonstrators, and product promoters ................................................. Demonstrators and product promoters ........................................................... Models ............................................................................................................. Real estate brokers and sales agents ................................................................. Real estate brokers ......................................................................................... Real estate sales agents ................................................................................. Sales engineers .................................................................................................. Telemarketers ..................................................................................................... Door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers ...... All other sales and related workers5 ................................................................... 43-0000 43-1000 43-1011 43-2000 43-2011 43-2021 43-2099 43-3000 43-3011 43-3021 43-3031 43-3041 43-3051 43-3061 43-3071 43-4000 43-4011 43-4021 43-4031 43-4041 43-4051 43-4061 43-4071 43-4081 43-4111 43-4121 43-4131 43-4141 43-4151 43-4161 43-4171 43-4181 43-4999 43-5000 43-5011 43-5021 43-5030 43-5031 43-5032 43-5041 43-5050 43-5051 41-4012 90 2012 2002 2012 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 248 4,076 957 157 381 300 118 1,857 243 4,672 1,033 178 413 339 102 2,213 0.2 2.8 .7 .1 .3 .2 .1 1.3 0.1 2.8 .6 .1 .3 .2 .1 1.3 -5 596 76 21 32 39 -16 356 -2.0 14.6 7.9 13.4 8.4 13.0 -13.8 19.2 71 2,077 274 52 123 73 27 844 398 475 .3 .3 77 19.3 182 1,459 1,827 179 175 5 407 99 308 82 428 155 577 1,738 1,994 210 204 5 427 101 325 98 406 137 717 1.0 1.3 .1 .1 .0 .3 .1 .2 .1 .3 .1 .4 1.1 1.2 .1 .1 .0 .3 .1 .2 .1 .2 .1 .4 279 167 30 30 1 20 2 18 16 -21 -18 140 19.1 9.2 16.9 17.0 14.5 4.9 2.4 5.7 19.9 -4.9 -11.8 24.3 662 568 70 68 2 101 22 79 41 70 37 250 Office and administrative support occupations ........................................................... 23,851 25,464 16.6 15.4 1,613 6.8 7,499 Supervisors, office and administrative support workers .......................................... First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers .... Communications equipment operators ................................................................... Switchboard operators, including answering service .......................................... Telephone operators ........................................................................................... All other communications equipment operators .................................................. Financial clerks ....................................................................................................... Bill and account collectors ................................................................................... Billing and posting clerks and machine operators ............................................... Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks .................................................... Gaming cage workers ......................................................................................... Payroll and timekeeping clerks ........................................................................... Procurement clerks ............................................................................................. Tellers ................................................................................................................. Information and record clerks4 ................................................................................ Brokerage clerks ................................................................................................. Correspondence clerks ....................................................................................... Court, municipal, and license clerks .................................................................... Credit authorizers, checkers, and clerks ............................................................. Customer service representatives ....................................................................... Eligibility interviewers, government programs ..................................................... File clerks ............................................................................................................ Hotel, motel, and resort desk clerks .................................................................... Interviewers, except eligibility and loan ............................................................... Library assistants, clerical ................................................................................... Loan interviewers and clerks ............................................................................... New accounts clerks ........................................................................................... Order clerks ......................................................................................................... Human resources assistants, except payroll and timekeeping ........................... Receptionists and information clerks .................................................................. Reservation and transportation ticket agents and travel clerks ........................... All other financial, information, and record clerks2 .............................................. Material recording, scheduling, dispatching, and distributing occupations ............. Cargo and freight agents ..................................................................................... Couriers and Messengers ............................................................................... Dispatchers ......................................................................................................... Police, fire, and ambulance dispatchers ......................................................... Dispatchers, except police, fire, and ambulance ............................................. Meter readers, utilities ......................................................................................... Postal service workers ........................................................................................ Postal service clerks ....................................................................................... 1,459 1,459 304 236 50 19 3,726 413 507 1,983 18 198 77 530 5,394 78 33 106 80 1,894 94 265 178 193 120 170 99 330 174 1,100 177 304 4,005 59 132 262 92 170 54 664 77 1,555 1,555 272 236 22 14 3,987 514 547 2,042 21 211 72 580 6,310 67 33 119 74 2,354 83 264 220 247 146 146 110 311 207 1,425 199 306 4,025 68 138 298 104 194 46 636 77 1.0 1.0 .2 .2 .0 .0 2.6 .3 .4 1.4 .0 .1 .1 .4 3.7 .1 .0 .1 .1 1.3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .2 .1 .8 .1 .2 2.8 .0 .1 .2 .1 .1 .0 .5 .1 .9 .9 .2 .1 .0 .0 2.4 .3 .3 1.2 .0 .1 .0 .4 3.8 .0 .0 .1 .0 1.4 .1 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .2 .1 .9 .1 .2 2.4 .0 .1 .2 .1 .1 .0 .4 .0 96 96 -32 1 -28 -5 261 101 40 59 3 13 -5 50 916 -11 0 13 -5 460 -11 -1 42 54 26 -24 11 -19 33 325 22 2 20 9 5 36 12 24 -8 -28 0 6.6 6.6 -10.5 .3 -56.3 -24.6 7.0 24.5 7.9 3.0 14.5 6.5 -6.7 9.4 17.0 -14.7 -1.4 12.3 -6.7 24.3 -11.6 -.3 23.9 28.0 21.5 -14.3 11.2 -5.7 19.3 29.5 12.2 .5 .5 15.5 4.0 13.8 12.7 14.4 -14.1 -4.3 -.5 409 409 78 61 13 4 1,143 179 126 431 12 65 20 311 2,134 10 10 36 15 741 25 78 122 104 75 23 36 74 71 595 68 49 1,306 22 36 92 32 61 17 192 20 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Percent distribution Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Number Percent 2002 43-5052 43-5053 43-5061 43-5071 43-5081 43-5111 43-5199 43-6000 43-6011 43-6012 43-6013 43-6014 43-9000 43-9011 43-9020 43-9021 43-9022 43-9031 43-9041 43-9051 43-9061 43-9071 43-9081 43-9111 43-9999 Postal service mail carriers ............................................................................. Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators .................................................................................................... Production, planning, and expediting clerks ........................................................ Shipping, receiving, and traffic clerks .................................................................. Stock clerks and order fillers ............................................................................... Weighers, measurers, checkers, and samplers, recordkeeping ......................... All other material recording, scheduling, dispatching, and distributing ..................................................................................................... workers2 Secretaries and administrative assistants ............................................................... Executive secretaries and administrative assistants ........................................... Legal secretaries ................................................................................................. Medical secretaries ............................................................................................. Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive .............................................. Other office and administrative support workers ..................................................... Computer operators ............................................................................................ Data entry and information processing workers4 ................................................ Data entry keyers ............................................................................................ Word processors and typists ........................................................................... Desktop publishers .............................................................................................. Insurance claims and policy processing clerks ................................................... Mail clerks and mail machine operators, except postal service .......................... Office clerks, general .......................................................................................... Office machine operators, except computer ....................................................... Proofreaders and copy markers .......................................................................... Statistical assistants ............................................................................................ All other secretaries, administrative assistants, and other office support ..................................................................................................... workers2 2012 2002 2012 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 334 333 0.2 0.2 -2 -0.5 105 253 288 803 1,628 81 226 328 827 1,560 93 .2 .2 .6 1.1 .1 .1 .2 .5 .9 .1 -26 40 24 -68 12 -10.5 14.1 3.0 -4.2 14.6 67 110 189 602 32 34 4,104 1,526 264 339 1,975 4,858 182 633 392 241 35 266 170 2,991 96 27 23 32 4,288 1,658 313 398 1,918 5,027 151 519 371 148 45 276 165 3,301 91 26 22 .0 2.8 1.1 .2 .2 1.4 3.4 .1 .4 .3 .2 .0 .2 .1 2.1 .1 .0 .0 .0 2.6 1.0 .2 .2 1.2 3.0 .1 .3 .2 .1 .0 .2 .1 2.0 .1 .0 .0 -2 184 132 50 58 -57 169 -30 -114 -21 -93 10 10 -5 310 -4 -1 -2 -6.9 4.5 8.7 18.8 17.2 -2.9 3.5 -16.7 -18.1 -5.4 -38.6 29.2 3.6 -2.9 10.4 -4.6 -4.8 -7.2 13 1,026 424 100 123 378 1,404 39 146 93 53 18 53 51 972 24 6 4 435 431 .3 .3 -4 -.9 92 45-0000 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations ................................................................. 1,072 1,107 .7 .7 35 3.3 335 45-1000 45-2000 45-2011 45-2021 45-2041 45-2090 45-2091 45-2092 45-2093 45-3000 45-3011 45-3021 45-4000 45-4011 45-4020 45-4021 45-4022 45-4023 45-9099 Supervisors, farming, fishing, and forestry workers ................................................ Agricultural workers ................................................................................................. Agricultural inspectors ......................................................................................... Animal breeders .................................................................................................. Graders and sorters, agricultural products .......................................................... Miscellaneous agricultural workers4 ................................................................... Agricultural equipment operators .................................................................... Farmworkers and laborers, crop, nursery, and greenhouse ........................... Farmworkers, farm and ranch animals ............................................................ Fishing and hunting workers ................................................................................... Fishers and related fishing workers .................................................................... Hunters and trappers .......................................................................................... Forest, conservation, and logging workers ............................................................. Forest and conservation workers ........................................................................ Logging workers4 ................................................................................................ Fallers ............................................................................................................. Logging equipment operators ......................................................................... Log graders and scalers .................................................................................. All other farming, fishing, and forestry workers5 ..................................................... 52 804 16 9 49 731 61 617 53 38 36 1 81 14 67 14 43 10 96 58 840 17 10 52 762 65 641 56 28 27 2 80 15 65 14 41 10 101 .0 .6 .0 .0 .0 .5 .0 .4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .5 .0 .0 .0 .5 .0 .4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 6 36 1 1 3 31 4 24 2 -10 -10 0 -2 1 -2 0 -2 0 4 11.4 4.5 6.7 6.1 6.7 4.3 7.3 4.0 4.4 -25.5 -26.8 6.5 -1.9 4.5 -3.2 -3.4 -3.7 -1.2 4.5 18 261 5 2 16 238 22 199 17 11 10 1 16 4 12 3 8 2 28 47-0000 Construction and extraction occupations .................................................................... 7,292 8,388 5.1 5.1 1,096 15.0 2,548 47-1000 47-1011 Supervisors, construction and extraction workers ................................................... First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers ....................................................................................................... Construction trades and related workers ................................................................ Boilermakers ....................................................................................................... Brickmasons, blockmasons, and stonemasons .................................................. Brickmasons and blockmasons ....................................................................... Stonemasons .................................................................................................. Carpenters .......................................................................................................... Carpet, floor, and tile installers and finishers ...................................................... Carpet installers .............................................................................................. Floor layers, except carpet, wood, and hard tiles ............................................ Floor sanders and finishers ............................................................................. Tile and marble setters .................................................................................... 633 722 .4 .4 89 14.1 197 633 5,596 25 165 148 17 1,209 164 82 31 17 33 722 6,452 25 188 169 19 1,331 191 96 35 18 42 .4 3.9 .0 .1 .1 .0 .8 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .4 3.9 .0 .1 .1 .0 .8 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 89 857 0 23 21 2 122 27 14 4 1 9 14.1 15.3 1.7 14.2 14.2 14.1 10.1 16.8 16.8 13.4 4.2 26.5 197 1,887 9 48 43 5 319 53 27 9 3 14 47-2000 47-2011 47-2020 47-2021 47-2022 47-2031 47-2040 47-2041 47-2042 47-2043 47-2044 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 91 Occupational Employment Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Percent distribution Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Number Percent 2002 47-2050 47-2051 47-2053 47-2061 47-2070 47-2071 47-2072 47-2073 47-2080 47-2081 47-2082 47-2111 47-2121 47-2130 47-2140 47-2141 47-2142 47-2150 47-2151 47-2152 47-2161 47-2171 47-2181 47-2211 47-2221 47-3000 47-3010 47-3011 2012 2002 2012 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 188 182 6 938 416 58 5 353 176 135 41 659 49 53 468 448 20 550 58 492 59 29 166 205 78 431 431 236 229 7 1,070 460 65 6 389 214 164 49 814 57 62 521 500 21 649 65 584 67 33 197 246 90 490 490 0.1 .1 .0 .7 .3 .0 .0 .2 .1 .1 .0 .5 .0 .0 .3 .3 .0 .4 .0 .3 .0 .0 .1 .1 .1 .3 .3 0.1 .1 .0 .6 .3 .0 .0 .2 .1 .1 .0 .5 .0 .0 .3 .3 .0 .4 .0 .4 .0 .0 .1 .1 .1 .3 .3 48 47 1 133 45 7 0 37 37 29 8 154 8 8 53 52 1 99 7 92 8 5 31 41 12 59 59 25.7 26.1 15.2 14.2 10.7 12.6 8.2 10.4 21.3 21.4 20.8 23.4 17.2 15.8 11.4 11.6 5.9 18.0 11.8 18.7 13.5 16.7 18.6 19.8 15.9 13.7 13.7 86 84 2 258 144 16 1 127 76 58 17 285 19 25 124 120 4 225 20 205 19 10 70 90 28 238 238 47-3012 47-3013 47-3014 47-3015 47-3016 47-3019 47-4000 47-4011 47-4021 47-4031 47-4041 47-4051 47-4061 47-4071 47-4090 47-4091 47-4999 47-5000 47-5010 47-5011 47-5012 47-5013 47-5021 47-5031 47-5040 47-5041 47-5042 47-5049 47-5051 47-5061 47-5071 47-5081 47-5099 Cement masons, concrete finishers, and terrazzo workers ................................ Cement masons and concrete finishers .......................................................... Terrazzo workers and finishers ....................................................................... Construction laborers .......................................................................................... Construction equipment operators ...................................................................... Paving, surfacing, and tamping equipment operators ..................................... Pile-driver operators ........................................................................................ Operating engineers and other construction equipment operators ................. Drywall installers, ceiling tile installers, and tapers ............................................. Drywall and ceiling tile installers ..................................................................... Tapers ............................................................................................................. Electricians .......................................................................................................... Glaziers ............................................................................................................... Insulation workers ............................................................................................... Painters and paperhangers ................................................................................. Painters, construction and maintenance ......................................................... Paperhangers .................................................................................................. Pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters ............................................. Pipelayers ....................................................................................................... Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters ............................................................ Plasterers and stucco masons ............................................................................ Reinforcing iron and rebar workers ..................................................................... Roofers ................................................................................................................ Sheet metal workers ........................................................................................... Structural iron and steel workers ......................................................................... Helpers, construction trades ................................................................................... Helpers, construction trades ............................................................................... Helpers—Brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble setters ......................................................................................................... Helpers—Carpenters ...................................................................................... Helpers—Electricians ...................................................................................... Helpers—Painters, paperhangers, plasterers, and stucco masons ................ Helpers—Pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters ......................... Helpers—Roofers ............................................................................................ All other helpers, construction trades .............................................................. Other construction and related workers4 ................................................................ Construction and building inspectors .................................................................. Elevator installers and repairers .......................................................................... Fence erectors .................................................................................................... Hazardous materials removal workers ................................................................ Highway maintenance workers ........................................................................... Rail-track laying and maintenance equipment operators .................................... Septic tank servicers and sewer pipe cleaners ................................................... Miscellaneous construction and related workers4 ............................................... Segmental pavers ........................................................................................... All other construction trades and related workers2 ................................................. Extraction workers ................................................................................................... Derrick, rotary drill, and service unit operators, oil, gas, and mining ................... Derrick operators, oil and gas ......................................................................... Rotary drill operators, oil and gas ................................................................... Service unit operators, oil, gas, and mining .................................................... Earth drillers, except oil and gas ......................................................................... Explosives workers, ordnance handling experts, and blasters ........................... Mining machine operators ................................................................................... Continuous mining machine operators ............................................................ Mine cutting and channeling machine operators ............................................. All other mining machine operators ................................................................. Rock splitters, quarry .......................................................................................... Roof bolters, mining ............................................................................................ Roustabouts, oil and gas ..................................................................................... Helpers—Extraction workers ............................................................................... Extraction workers, all other ................................................................................ 59 97 99 31 79 21 44 354 84 21 27 38 154 11 18 2 2 110 167 41 15 14 13 23 5 18 8 5 4 3 4 32 29 12 61 111 117 36 88 25 53 408 95 25 31 54 170 9 22 3 3 146 169 41 15 14 13 25 5 16 7 5 4 3 3 34 30 12 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1 14 18 5 9 4 9 54 12 4 4 16 16 -1 4 0 0 35 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 2 1 0 2.2 14.0 17.9 15.9 10.9 19.3 19.4 15.2 13.8 17.1 13.4 43.1 10.4 -11.5 21.2 16.5 16.5 32.0 1.2 .5 .8 1.5 -.8 7.7 2.0 -13.3 -18.5 -7.1 -10.8 14.3 -27.7 6.4 3.9 -.8 26 54 59 18 42 13 27 123 30 9 8 26 38 2 9 1 1 53 51 12 4 4 4 7 2 5 2 1 1 1 1 11 9 3 49-0000 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations ...................................................... 5,696 6,472 4.0 3.9 776 13.6 2,087 49-1000 49-1011 Supervisors of installation, maintenance, and repair workers ................................. First-line supervisors/managers of mechanics, installers, and repairers ............ 444 444 512 512 .3 .3 .3 .3 68 68 15.4 15.4 180 180 92 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Percent distribution Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Number Percent 2002 49-2000 49-2011 49-2020 49-2021 49-2022 49-2090 49-2091 49-2092 49-2093 49-2094 49-2095 49-2096 49-2097 49-2098 49-2099 49-3000 49-3011 49-3020 49-3021 49-3022 49-3023 49-3031 49-3040 49-3041 49-3042 49-3043 49-3050 49-3051 49-3052 49-3053 49-3090 49-3091 49-3092 49-3093 49-3099 49-9000 49-9010 49-9011 49-9012 49-9021 49-9031 49-9040 49-9041 49-9042 49-9043 49-9044 49-9045 49-9050 49-9051 49-9052 49-9060 49-9061 49-9062 49-9063 49-9064 49-9069 49-9090 49-9091 49-9092 49-9093 49-9094 49-9095 Electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers ............... Computer, automated teller, and office machine repairers ................................. Radio and telecommunications equipment installers and repairers .................... Radio mechanics ............................................................................................. Telecommunications equipment installers and repairers, except line installers ..................................................................................................... Miscellaneous electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers ..................................................................................................... Avionics technicians ........................................................................................ Electric motor, power tool, and related repairers ............................................ Electrical and electronics installers and repairers, transportation equipment ................................................................................................... Electrical and electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment ..... Electrical and electronics repairers, powerhouse, substation, and relay ........ Electronic equipment installers and repairers, motor vehicles ........................ Electronic home entertainment equipment installers and repairers ................ Security and fire alarm systems installers ....................................................... All other electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, installers, and ................................................................................................... repairers2 Vehicle and mobile equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers ...................... Aircraft mechanics and service technicians ........................................................ Automotive technicians and repairers ................................................................. Automotive body and related repairers ........................................................... Automotive glass installers and repairers ....................................................... Automotive service technicians and mechanics .............................................. Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists ..................................... Heavy vehicle and mobile equipment service technicians and mechanics ......... Farm equipment mechanics ............................................................................ Mobile heavy equipment mechanics, except engines ..................................... Rail car repairers ............................................................................................. Small engine mechanics ..................................................................................... Motorboat mechanics ...................................................................................... Motorcycle mechanics ..................................................................................... Outdoor power equipment and other small engine mechanics ....................... Miscellaneous vehicle and mobile equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers ..................................................................................................... Bicycle repairers .............................................................................................. Recreational vehicle service technicians ........................................................ Tire repairers and changers ............................................................................ All other vehicle and mobile equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers2 ... Other installation, maintenance, and repair occupations ........................................ Control and valve installers and repairers ........................................................... Mechanical door repairers ............................................................................... Control and valve installers and repairers, except mechanical door ............... Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers ................. Home appliance repairers ................................................................................... Industrial machinery installation, repair, and maintenance workers .................... Industrial machinery mechanics ...................................................................... Maintenance and repair workers, general ....................................................... Maintenance workers, machinery ................................................................... Millwrights ....................................................................................................... Refractory materials repairers, except brickmasons ....................................... Line installers and repairers ................................................................................ Electrical power-line installers and repairers ................................................... Telecommunications line installers and repairers ........................................... Precision instrument and equipment repairers .................................................... Camera and photographic equipment repairers .............................................. Medical equipment repairers ........................................................................... Musical instrument repairers and tuners ......................................................... Watch repairers ............................................................................................... All other precision instrument and equipment repairers .................................. Miscellaneous installation, maintenance, and repair workers ............................. Coin, vending, and amusement machine servicers and repairers .................. Commercial divers .......................................................................................... Fabric menders, except garment .................................................................... Locksmiths and safe repairers ........................................................................ Manufactured building and mobile home installers ......................................... 689 156 226 7 2012 746 180 222 5 2002 2012 0.5 .1 .2 .0 0.5 .1 .1 .0 57 24 -4 -2 8.3 15.1 -1.6 -29.3 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 193 43 47 2 219 217 .2 .1 -1 -.6 45 284 23 31 317 24 33 .2 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 33 1 2 11.5 3.4 5.3 95 6 9 18 85 21 18 43 46 19 94 21 21 46 60 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 1 9 0 3 4 14 7.1 10.3 -.6 14.8 8.6 30.2 6 27 5 7 12 23 22 1,817 131 1,038 198 22 818 267 176 35 126 15 67 22 15 30 26 2,043 145 1,168 225 24 919 305 191 38 138 15 79 26 18 36 .0 1.3 .1 .7 .1 .0 .6 .2 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.2 .1 .7 .1 .0 .6 .2 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 4 226 14 130 26 2 101 38 15 3 12 1 12 4 3 6 19.6 12.4 11.0 12.5 13.2 10.7 12.4 14.2 8.8 7.7 9.6 4.5 18.7 18.3 18.7 18.9 9 695 45 392 67 6 319 107 54 10 39 4 29 9 7 13 102 7 13 83 36 2,746 49 11 38 249 42 1,628 197 1,266 92 69 4 268 101 167 64 7 29 6 5 17 447 43 4 2 23 18 113 8 15 89 41 3,171 55 13 42 328 44 1,855 208 1,472 97 73 4 301 103 199 69 6 33 7 5 18 518 49 5 2 28 22 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 1.9 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 1.1 .1 .9 .1 .0 .0 .2 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 1.9 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 1.1 .1 .9 .1 .0 .0 .2 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 11 1 3 7 6 424 7 2 5 79 2 227 11 207 5 4 0 33 2 31 6 0 4 0 0 1 71 6 0 0 5 4 10.4 18.8 21.8 8.0 15.4 15.5 14.1 21.8 12.0 31.8 5.5 13.9 5.5 16.3 5.9 5.3 5.6 12.3 1.6 18.8 8.6 -7.1 14.8 6.3 3.5 7.0 15.8 15.2 10.6 -2.2 21.0 23.3 54 4 8 42 15 1,019 19 5 14 112 12 548 51 450 26 21 1 111 34 77 24 2 12 2 2 6 193 17 1 1 12 9 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 93 Occupational Employment Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Percent distribution Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Number Percent 2002 2012 2002 2012 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 49-9096 49-9097 49-9098 49-9099 Riggers ............................................................................................................ Signal and track switch repairers .................................................................... Helpers—Installation, maintenance, and repair workers ................................. Installation, maintenance, and repair workers, all other .................................. 14 8 150 185 16 8 181 207 0.0 .0 .1 .1 0.0 .0 .1 .1 2 0 30 23 14.3 -3.1 20.3 12.2 5 3 81 65 51-0000 Production occupations ............................................................................................... 11,258 11,612 7.8 7.0 354 3.1 3,361 51-1000 51-1011 51-2000 51-2011 51-2020 51-2021 51-2022 51-2023 51-2031 51-2041 51-2090 51-2091 51-2092 51-2093 51-2099 51-3000 51-3011 51-3020 51-3021 51-3022 51-3023 51-3090 51-3091 Supervisors, production workers ............................................................................. First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers ................ Assemblers and fabricators ..................................................................................... Aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging, and systems assemblers ............................ Electrical, electronics, and electromechanical assemblers ................................. Coil winders, tapers, and finishers .................................................................. Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers ............................................. Electromechanical equipment assemblers ...................................................... Engine and other machine assemblers ............................................................... Structural metal fabricators and fitters ................................................................ Miscellaneous assemblers and fabricators ......................................................... Fiberglass laminators and fabricators ............................................................. Team assemblers ............................................................................................ Timing device assemblers, adjusters, and calibrators .................................... All other assemblers and fabricators ............................................................... Food processing occupations ................................................................................. Bakers ................................................................................................................. Butchers and other meat, poultry, and fish processing workers ......................... Butchers and meat cutters .............................................................................. Meat, poultry, and fish cutters and trimmers ................................................... Slaughterers and meat packers ...................................................................... Miscellaneous food processing workers ............................................................. Food and tobacco roasting, baking, and drying machine operators and tenders ....................................................................................................... Food batchmakers .......................................................................................... Food cooking machine operators and tenders ................................................ All other food processing workers2 ..................................................................... Metal workers and plastic workers4 ........................................................................ Computer control programmers and operators ................................................... Computer-controlled machine tool operators, metal and plastic ..................... Numerical tool and process control programmers .......................................... Forming machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ................. Extruding and drawing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ......................................................................................................... Forging machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic .............. Rolling machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ................ Machine tool cutting setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ............. Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic .................................................................................................. Drilling and boring machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ......................................................................................................... Grinding, lapping, polishing, and buffing machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic .......................................................................... Lathe and turning machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ......................................................................................................... Milling and planing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ......................................................................................................... Machinists ........................................................................................................... Metal furnace and kiln operators and tenders ..................................................... Metal-refining furnace operators and tenders ................................................. Pourers and casters, metal ............................................................................. Model makers and patternmakers, metal and plastic .......................................... Model makers, metal and plastic ..................................................................... Patternmakers, metal and plastic .................................................................... Molders and molding machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ......................................................................................................... Foundry mold and coremakers ....................................................................... Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ........................................................................................ Multiple machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ........... 733 733 2,122 27 377 36 281 60 50 89 1,579 37 1,174 7 361 757 173 414 132 154 128 127 803 803 2,044 24 316 31 230 55 49 94 1,561 39 1,155 6 360 836 192 459 129 179 151 137 .5 .5 1.5 .0 .3 .0 .2 .0 .0 .1 1.1 .0 .8 .0 .3 .5 .1 .3 .1 .1 .1 .1 .5 .5 1.2 .0 .2 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .9 .0 .7 .0 .2 .5 .1 .3 .1 .1 .1 .1 70 70 -77 -2 -61 -5 -51 -5 -1 6 -18 2 -19 0 -1 79 19 45 -3 25 23 9 9.5 9.5 -3.6 -9.4 -16.3 -13.9 -18.3 -8.3 -1.9 6.2 -1.1 5.6 -1.6 -3.0 -.2 10.5 11.2 10.9 -2.5 16.4 18.1 7.2 224 224 547 7 89 9 66 14 14 26 410 12 304 2 93 254 59 139 29 59 51 41 19 74 34 42 2,367 151 132 19 188 20 79 37 48 2,544 166 144 22 198 .0 .1 .0 .0 1.6 .1 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.5 .1 .1 .0 .1 1 5 3 6 177 15 12 3 11 4.2 7.2 8.8 13.4 7.5 9.8 9.3 13.0 5.6 6 23 11 15 754 40 34 6 60 98 45 44 546 105 48 45 569 .1 .0 .0 .4 .1 .0 .0 .3 7 3 1 24 7.1 5.9 2.0 4.3 40 9 11 144 283 302 .2 .2 19 6.8 85 53 54 .0 .0 1 2.1 17 104 106 .1 .1 3 2.4 22 75 75 .1 .0 1 .8 15 31 387 31 18 13 15 9 6 31 419 30 17 13 16 10 7 .0 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 0 32 0 0 0 1 1 0 .8 8.2 -1.3 -.8 -2.0 9.8 14.6 3.6 6 122 7 4 3 6 4 2 174 23 189 24 .1 .0 .1 .0 14 1 8.2 3.6 58 7 151 99 165 107 .1 .1 .1 .1 14 8 8.9 8.3 51 35 51-3092 51-3093 51-3099 51-4000 51-4010 51-4011 51-4012 51-4020 51-4021 51-4022 51-4023 51-4030 51-4031 51-4032 51-4033 51-4034 51-4035 51-4041 51-4050 51-4051 51-4052 51-4060 51-4061 51-4062 51-4070 51-4071 51-4072 51-4081 94 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Percent distribution Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Number Percent 2002 51-4111 51-4120 51-4121 51-4122 51-4190 51-4191 51-4192 51-4193 51-4194 51-4199 51-5000 51-5010 51-5011 51-5012 51-5020 51-5021 51-5022 51-5023 51-5099 51-6000 51-6011 51-6021 51-6031 51-6040 51-6041 51-6042 51-6050 51-6051 51-6052 51-6060 51-6061 51-6062 51-6063 51-6064 51-6090 51-6091 51-6092 51-6093 51-6099 51-7000 51-7011 51-7021 51-7030 51-7031 51-7032 51-7040 51-7041 51-7042 51-7099 51-8000 51-8010 51-8011 51-8012 51-8013 51-8021 51-8031 51-8090 51-8091 51-8092 51-8093 51-8099 51-9000 51-9010 51-9011 Tool and die makers ............................................................................................ Welding, soldering, and brazing workers ............................................................ Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers ........................................................ Welding, soldering, and brazing machine setters, operators, and tenders ..... Miscellaneous metalworkers and plastic workers ............................................... Heat treating equipment setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ... Lay-out workers, metal and plastic .................................................................. Plating and coating machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ......................................................................................................... Tool grinders, filers, and sharpeners ............................................................... All other metal workers and plastic workers .................................................... Printing occupations ................................................................................................ Bookbinders and bindery workers ....................................................................... Bindery workers .............................................................................................. Bookbinders .................................................................................................... Printers ................................................................................................................ Job printers ..................................................................................................... Prepress technicians and workers .................................................................. Printing machine operators ............................................................................. All other printing workers2 ................................................................................... Textile, apparel, and furnishings occupations ......................................................... Laundry and dry-cleaning workers ...................................................................... Pressers, textile, garment, and related materials ................................................ Sewing machine operators .................................................................................. Shoe and leather workers ................................................................................... Shoe and leather workers and repairers ......................................................... Shoe machine operators and tenders ............................................................. Tailors, dressmakers, and sewers ...................................................................... Sewers, hand .................................................................................................. Tailors, dressmakers, and custom sewers ...................................................... Textile machine setters, operators, and tenders ................................................. Textile bleaching and dyeing machine operators and tenders ........................ Textile cutting machine setters, operators, and tenders ................................. Textile knitting and weaving machine setters, operators, and tenders ........... Textile winding, twisting, and drawing out machine setters, operators, and tenders ....................................................................................................... Miscellaneous textile, apparel, and furnishings workers ..................................... Extruding and forming machine setters, operators, and tenders, synthetic and glass fibers .......................................................................................... Fabric and apparel patternmakers .................................................................. Upholsterers .................................................................................................... All other textile, apparel, and furnishings workers ........................................... Woodworkers .......................................................................................................... Cabinetmakers and bench carpenters ................................................................ Furniture finishers ............................................................................................... Model makers and patternmakers, wood ............................................................ Model makers, wood ....................................................................................... Patternmakers, wood ...................................................................................... Woodworking machine setters, operators, and tenders ...................................... Sawing machine setters, operators, and tenders, wood ................................. Woodworking machine setters, operators, and tenders, except sawing ......... All other woodworkers ......................................................................................... Plant and system operators .................................................................................... Power plant operators, distributors, and dispatchers .......................................... Nuclear power reactor operators ..................................................................... Power distributors and dispatchers ................................................................. Power plant operators ..................................................................................... Stationary engineers and boiler operators .......................................................... Water and liquid waste treatment plant and system operators ........................... Miscellaneous plant and system operators ......................................................... Chemical plant and system operators ............................................................. Gas plant operators ......................................................................................... Petroleum pump system operators, refinery operators, and gaugers ............. All other plant and system operators ............................................................... Other production occupations ................................................................................. Chemical processing machine setters, operators, and tenders .......................... Chemical equipment operators and tenders ................................................... 2012 2002 2012 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 109 452 391 61 215 29 13 110 518 457 62 221 29 15 0.1 .3 .3 .0 .1 .0 .0 0.1 .3 .3 .0 .1 .0 .0 0 67 66 1 6 0 2 0.4 14.8 17.0 .9 2.6 -.6 15.6 25 194 177 18 62 9 4 44 26 104 465 98 91 7 346 56 91 199 21 1,085 231 91 315 23 16 7 90 36 53 179 27 34 53 42 24 111 466 93 86 7 350 61 81 208 23 932 260 91 216 18 14 5 77 29 48 124 19 26 33 .0 .0 .1 .3 .1 .1 .0 .2 .0 .1 .1 .0 .8 .2 .1 .2 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .3 .1 .1 .0 .2 .0 .0 .1 .0 .6 .2 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 -1 -2 7 1 -5 -5 0 4 5 -10 9 2 -152 29 0 -99 -4 -3 -2 -13 -8 -5 -56 -8 -8 -20 -2.6 -7.7 6.6 .3 -4.7 -5.2 1.3 1.2 9.2 -11.2 4.6 9.3 -14.1 12.3 -.2 -31.5 -19.0 -16.1 -26.1 -14.0 -21.2 -9.1 -31.0 -28.7 -22.6 -38.6 10 8 31 128 26 24 2 95 18 21 55 7 240 91 14 39 6 5 1 16 6 9 33 7 8 6 66 156 46 147 .0 .1 .0 .1 -20 -9 -30.3 -5.9 12 41 27 11 56 61 374 147 39 9 4 4 151 56 95 29 346 51 3 12 35 55 99 141 58 12 39 32 3,010 94 58 24 8 51 63 393 160 41 10 5 5 153 56 98 29 353 51 3 12 36 56 115 132 51 13 35 33 3,240 92 56 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 2.1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 2.0 .1 .0 -4 -3 -5 2 19 14 1 1 0 0 3 0 3 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 16 -9 -7 1 -4 2 230 -2 -2 -13.1 -24.6 -8.7 3.3 5.1 9.4 3.3 11.1 10.3 11.8 1.8 -.2 3.0 1.7 2.0 -.7 -3.2 -3.0 .3 .3 16.0 -6.2 -12.3 6.7 -11.0 5.6 7.7 -2.0 -3.8 5 5 14 16 115 50 9 3 2 2 44 16 28 9 120 14 1 3 10 10 50 46 18 5 12 12 977 30 19 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 95 Occupational Employment Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Percent distribution Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Number Percent 2002 51-9012 2012 2002 2012 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 36 196 45 45 106 109 31 77 36 192 44 49 99 116 33 83 0.0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 0.0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 0 -4 -1 4 -7 7 2 5 0.8 -2.1 -2.8 9.0 -6.5 6.9 7.6 6.6 12 55 12 16 28 30 9 21 51-9051 51-9061 51-9071 51-9080 51-9081 51-9082 51-9083 51-9111 51-9120 51-9121 51-9122 51-9123 51-9130 51-9131 51-9132 51-9141 51-9190 51-9191 51-9192 51-9193 51-9194 51-9195 51-9196 51-9197 51-9198 51-9199 Separating, filtering, clarifying, precipitating, and still machine setters, operators, and tenders ............................................................................... Crushing, grinding, polishing, mixing, and blending workers .............................. Crushing, grinding, and polishing machine setters, operators, and tenders ... Grinding and polishing workers, hand ............................................................. Mixing and blending machine setters, operators, and tenders ........................ Cutting workers ................................................................................................... Cutters and trimmers, hand ............................................................................. Cutting and slicing machine setters, operators, and tenders .......................... Extruding, forming, pressing, and compacting machine setters, operators, and tenders ....................................................................................................... Furnace, kiln, oven, drier, and kettle operators and tenders ............................... Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers .......................................... Jewelers and precious stone and metal workers ................................................ Medical, dental, and ophthalmic laboratory technicians ...................................... Dental laboratory technicians .......................................................................... Medical appliance technicians ........................................................................ Ophthalmic laboratory technicians .................................................................. Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders ........................................ Painting workers .................................................................................................. Coating, painting, and spraying machine setters, operators, and tenders ...... Painters, transportation equipment ................................................................. Painting, coating, and decorating workers ...................................................... Photographic process workers and processing machine operators .................... Photographic process workers ........................................................................ Photographic processing machine operators .................................................. Semiconductor processors .................................................................................. Miscellaneous production workers ...................................................................... Cementing and gluing machine operators and tenders .................................. Cleaning, washing, and metal pickling equipment operators and tenders ...... Cooling and freezing equipment operators and tenders ................................. Etchers and engravers .................................................................................... Molders, shapers, and casters, except metal and plastic ............................... Paper goods machine setters, operators, and tenders ................................... Tire builders .................................................................................................... Helpers—Production workers ......................................................................... All other production workers ............................................................................ 73 31 515 40 94 47 14 33 387 187 103 50 34 82 28 54 46 1,155 27 18 7 10 46 117 14 467 449 73 29 539 42 101 49 16 36 468 211 112 59 40 89 30 59 42 1,245 28 19 8 10 49 114 15 503 500 .1 .0 .4 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .3 .1 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .3 .3 .0 .0 .3 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .3 .1 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .3 .3 0 -2 24 2 7 2 2 3 82 24 10 9 6 6 2 5 -5 90 0 1 1 1 3 -3 1 36 51 -.1 -4.9 4.7 4.5 7.4 3.6 16.1 9.2 21.1 13.0 9.4 17.5 17.6 7.9 5.4 9.2 -10.6 7.8 1.1 6.9 7.1 6.1 6.4 -2.8 6.6 7.7 11.3 19 7 141 10 27 12 5 10 159 73 36 22 15 27 9 18 10 388 8 7 3 3 14 25 4 167 158 53-0000 Transportation and material moving occupations ....................................................... 9,828 11,111 6.8 6.7 1,282 13.0 3,496 53-1000 53-1011 53-1021 Supervisors, transportation and material moving workers ...................................... Aircraft cargo handling supervisors ..................................................................... First-line supervisors/managers of helpers, laborers, and material movers, hand ........................................................................................................... First-line supervisors/managers of transportation and material-moving machine and vehicle operators ................................................................................. Air transportation occupations ................................................................................. Aircraft pilots and flight engineers ....................................................................... Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers ..................................................... Commercial pilots ............................................................................................ Air traffic controllers and airfield operations specialists ...................................... Air traffic controllers ........................................................................................ Airfield operations specialists .......................................................................... All other air transportation workers2 .................................................................... Motor vehicle operators ........................................................................................... Ambulance drivers and attendants, except emergency medical technicians ...... Bus drivers .......................................................................................................... Bus drivers, transit and intercity ...................................................................... Bus drivers, school .......................................................................................... Driver/sales workers and truck drivers ................................................................ Driver/sales workers ........................................................................................ Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer ........................................................... Truck drivers, light or delivery services ........................................................... Taxi drivers and chauffeurs ................................................................................. All other motor vehicle operators ........................................................................ Rail transportation occupations ............................................................................... Locomotive engineers and operators .................................................................. 364 9 411 10 .3 .0 .2 .0 47 1 12.9 15.6 132 3 147 168 .1 .1 21 14.0 55 207 144 100 79 21 32 26 6 12 4,136 17 654 202 453 3,221 431 1,767 1,022 132 111 101 33 232 168 118 94 24 36 29 7 14 4,896 22 761 233 528 3,813 450 2,104 1,259 161 139 96 31 .1 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 2.9 .0 .5 .1 .3 2.2 .3 1.2 .7 .1 .1 .1 .0 .1 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 3.0 .0 .5 .1 .3 2.3 .3 1.3 .8 .1 .1 .1 .0 25 24 18 15 3 4 3 1 2 760 5 106 31 76 592 19 337 237 29 28 -5 -2 12.1 17.0 17.8 18.5 14.9 13.5 12.6 17.2 19.4 18.4 26.7 16.2 15.2 16.7 18.4 4.3 19.0 23.2 21.7 25.2 -5.3 -7.2 74 62 45 36 9 12 10 3 5 1,385 6 249 75 174 1,045 89 625 331 41 44 28 10 51-9020 51-9021 51-9022 51-9023 51-9030 51-9031 51-9032 51-9041 53-1031 53-2000 53-2010 53-2011 53-2012 53-2020 53-2021 53-2022 53-2099 53-3000 53-3011 53-3020 53-3021 53-3022 53-3030 53-3031 53-3032 53-3033 53-3041 53-3099 53-4000 53-4010 96 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 Table 2. Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Number 2000 standard occupation classification code and title Change Percent distribution Number Percent 2002 53-4021 53-4031 53-4039 53-5000 53-5011 53-5020 53-5021 53-5022 53-5031 53-5099 53-6000 53-6011 53-6021 53-6031 53-6041 53-6051 53-6099 53-7000 53-7011 53-7021 53-7030 53-7031 53-7032 53-7033 53-7041 53-7051 53-7060 53-7061 53-7062 53-7063 53-7064 53-7070 53-7071 53-7072 53-7073 53-7081 53-7111 53-7121 53-7199 Railroad brake, signal, and switch operators ...................................................... Railroad conductors and yardmasters ................................................................ Subway, streetcar operators and all other rail transportation workers5 .............. Water transportation occupations ........................................................................... Sailors and marine oilers ..................................................................................... Ship and boat captains and operators ................................................................ Captains, mates, and pilots of water vessels .................................................. Motorboat operators ........................................................................................ Ship engineers .................................................................................................... All other water transportation workers2 ............................................................... Other transportation workers ................................................................................... Bridge and lock tenders ...................................................................................... Parking lot attendants ......................................................................................... Service station attendants ................................................................................... Traffic technicians ............................................................................................... Transportation inspectors .................................................................................... All other related transportation workers .............................................................. Material moving occupations ................................................................................... Conveyor operators and tenders ......................................................................... Crane and tower operators ................................................................................. Dredge, excavating, and loading machine operators .......................................... Dredge operators ............................................................................................ Excavating and loading machine and dragline operators ............................... Loading machine operators, underground mining ........................................... Hoist and winch operators ................................................................................... Industrial truck and tractor operators .................................................................. Laborers and material movers, hand .................................................................. Cleaners of vehicles and equipment ............................................................... Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand ................................. Machine feeders and offbearers ..................................................................... Packers and packagers, hand ......................................................................... Pumping station operators .................................................................................. Gas compressor and gas pumping station operators ..................................... Pump operators, except wellhead pumpers .................................................... Wellhead pumpers .......................................................................................... Refuse and recyclable material collectors ........................................................... Shuttle car operators ........................................................................................... Tank car, truck, and ship loaders ........................................................................ Material moving workers, all other ...................................................................... 1 Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. 2 This occupation was created by the OES survey. There is no SOC equivalent. 3 This minor occupation group contains a detailed occupation from another Professional and related occupations subgroup Percent Numeric change change (in thousands) Computer and mathematical ................. 34.8 Community and social service ............. 26.2 Healthcare practitioners and technical .................................... 26.0 Education, training, and library ............ 24.7 Life, physical, and social science ......... 17.2 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media ............................. 16.5 Legal ...................................................... 16.2 Architecture and engineering ................. 8.6 1,051 574 1,708 2,109 212 393 190 222 15 38 15 68 27 29 25 4 8 4 294 4 107 107 6 29 40 4,722 58 50 87 3 80 4 9 594 3,659 344 2,231 164 920 32 7 13 11 134 3 17 78 2012 12 36 17 70 28 30 26 4 9 4 326 3 128 111 6 32 47 5,144 65 55 94 3 87 3 10 659 3,967 374 2,378 162 1,052 30 7 13 10 158 2 17 86 2002 2012 0.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 3.3 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .4 2.5 .2 1.5 .1 .6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 0.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 3.1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .4 2.4 .2 1.4 .1 .6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 -3 -2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 32 -1 21 4 1 2 6 422 7 5 7 0 7 -1 1 66 308 30 147 -2 132 -2 0 -1 -1 24 -1 0 8 -22.8 -4.2 13.2 3.4 4.0 2.4 2.4 2.7 4.5 5.6 11.0 -17.4 19.2 3.3 9.3 7.7 15.1 8.9 12.4 10.8 7.5 .3 8.9 -14.1 13.0 11.1 8.4 8.7 6.6 -1.4 14.4 -6.0 1.0 -5.0 -11.7 17.6 -31.3 -2.1 10.0 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2002-121 2 10 7 25 11 9 8 1 4 1 135 1 52 52 2 9 18 1,729 24 16 31 1 29 1 4 178 1,376 150 876 45 305 7 2 3 3 58 1 5 29 minor occupation group. 4 Information about the detailed residual occupation for this broad occupation is not included. 5 This occupation contains two or more detailed SOC occupations. NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding. This group is projected to grow as the school-age population increases; a greater proportion of preschool-age children attend school; a greater proportion of students are provided with special education; and classes become smaller. In addition, rapid growth is expected in the number of adults attending both career and job training schools and selfenrichment classes. More than 3 out of 5 new jobs are projected for government and 1 in 5 for rapidly-growing private educational services.4 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are projected to add 1.7 million jobs, as the demand for healthcare Monthly Labor Review February 2004 97 Occupational Employment services continues to grow rapidly. (See p. 101 for a discussion of reasons for growth.) More than 3 out of 4 new jobs in these occupations are expected to be in the healthcare industry. Relatively few new jobs, and slow growth, are projected in government.5 Registered nurses, by far the largest occupation in this group, should account for more than 1 out of 3 new jobs. The number of self-employed workers in this group is projected to decline slightly. Self-employed physicians are expected to decline significantly, as employment shifts into incorporated group practices, while self-employed registered nurses, chiropractors, veterinarians, and speech-language pathologists are projected to increase. Computer and mathematical occupations are projected to add 1.1 million jobs, and grow the fastest among the eight subgroups. The demand for computer-related occupations should increase, despite the recent downturn, as a result of rapid advances in computer technology and the demand for new computer applications, including those for the Internet and Intranets. Growth will not be as rapid as during the previous decade, however, as the software industry begins to mature and as routine work is increasingly outsourced overseas. More than a third of new jobs will be in computer systems design and related services, and one-fifth will be in the information industry—primarily in software publishers, data processing and related, and Internet-related industries. In both groups, projected growth for these occupations exceeds 50 percent. In addition, in many industries, employment of these workers is projected to grow faster than the average for all occupations. Self-employed computer and mathematical workers are expected to increase 39.8 percent. Community and social services occupations are projected to add 574,000 jobs. Continued rapid growth should result as the elderly population increases rapidly and as greater efforts are made to provide services for the disabled, the sick, substance abusers, and individuals and families in crisis. Within this occupational group, about 3 out of 5 new jobs are expected to be in the healthcare and social assistance industry and 1 out of 5 in religious organizations. Slow growth and 1 new job in 8 are projected for the large government sector. Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations are projected to add 393,000 jobs. About onefifth of these new jobs is projected for professional, scientific, and technical services, which includes both advertising and computer systems design and related services. One job in seven is projected for the information sector, which includes both motion pictures and publishing industries. About onesixth of the growth is expected for self-employed workers (a 9.3-percent increase), with largest increases for writers and authors, graphic designers, musicians and singers, and photographers. Architecture and engineering jobs are projected to grow slowly, adding 222,000 jobs. About 2 out of 5 new jobs in 98 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 these occupations are projected for the professional, scientific, and technical services industry. One new job in 6 is projected for the rapidly growing employment services industry, which provides employees to other industries on a contract or fee basis. One new job in 8 is projected for government. In manufacturing industries—which employed a third of these workers in 2002—little change is projected. Engineers, the largest occupational subgroup, is expected to grow 7.3 percent. Life, physical, and social scientists are projected to add 212,000 jobs. More than a quarter of these jobs are projected for the professional, scientific, and technical services industry which includes scientific consulting services and scientific research and development services. Nearly a quarter of new jobs is projected in government and 1 new job in 7 is projected for rapidly-growing healthcare and social assistance. Selfemployed are projected to grow slowly, with most growth among psychologists. Legal occupations are projected to add 190,000 jobs, with about 7 of 10 projected for the legal services industry, where these occupations should increase rapidly. A quarter of all growth is projected for government. Paralegals and legal assistants are projected to grow the fastest, while lawyers should add the most jobs, 118,000. The number of selfemployed workers in this group is projected to decline 7.0 percent, all among lawyers, reflecting the difficulty in establishing new legal practices. Employment in service occupations is projected to increase by 5.3 million, the second largest numerical gain and second highest rate of growth among the major occupational groups. For these occupations, about 3 out of 10 new jobs, and fastest growth, are projected for the healthcare and social assistance industry. A quarter of new jobs are projected for the accommodation and food services industry. The number of self-employed service workers is projected to increase slightly. Of the five subgroups making up service occupations, food preparation and serving-related occupations was the largest in 2002—with 10.2 million jobs—and is projected to add the most jobs, about 1.6 million. Nevertheless, it has the slowest projected growth. (See table 2.) Nearly 4 of 5 new jobs are projected for the accommodation and food services industry. The following tabulation shows the percent and numeric change for the services occupation subgroups: Percent change Healthcare support ..................... 34.5 Protective service ....................... 24.7 Personal care and service ............ 20.6 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance ........ 16.4 Food preparation and serving related .................. 15.8 Numeric change (in thousands) 1,143 769 917 901 1,607 Healthcare support occupations are projected to add 1.1 million jobs, growing the fastest of the services subgroups. (See p. 101 for a discussion of reasons for growth.) Seven out of eight new jobs are projected for the healthcare and social assistance industry. Self-employed healthcare support occupations are projected to grow 16.6 percent, with most growth among massage therapists. Personal care and service occupations are projected to add 917,000 jobs. Nearly half of new jobs, and the fastest growth (51.6 percent) for these occupations, are projected in the healthcare and social assistance industry. One new job in 6 is projected for arts, entertainment, and recreation, which includes amusement parks and fitness and recreational sports centers. Overall growth is retarded by a 1.6-percent decline among the self-employed, who made up a quarter of all workers in this group in 2002. Declines among self-employed are primarily among first-line supervisors/managers of personal care and service workers (mostly proprietors of small businesses) and childcare workers. Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations are projected to add 901,000 jobs. Forty-five percent of new jobs, and fast growth, are projected for administrative and support and waste management and remediation services, which includes both services to buildings and dwellings and employment services. About 1 job in 8 is projected for healthcare and social assistance and 1 in 10 each in accommodation and food service and government. A 39,000 decline is projected in the private household sector, where 10 percent of these workers were employed. Only 2.9-percent growth is projected for the self-employed. Among the self-employed, landscaping and groundskeeping workers, as well as first-line supervisors/managers of these workers, are projected to increase, while maids and housekeeping cleaners are expected to decline. Protective service occupations are projected to add 769,000 jobs. Half of the growth is projected for government, and nearly two-fifths is projected for rapidly growing investigation and security services. Employment in sales and related occupations is projected to increase by 2 million. More than 3 out of 5 new jobs are projected for retail trade, and 1 in 8 for wholesale trade. The self-employed made up 12 percent of this group in 2002. Their employment is projected to decline by 9 percent, with the largest decreases among self-employed first-line supervisors/managers of sales workers (owners of stores or other marketing businesses); retail sales workers; and door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers. Employment in office and administrative support occupations is projected to increase by 1.6 million but grow slowly. More than a quarter of these new jobs are projected for rapidly-growing employment services, which provides employees to other industries on a contract or fee basis. A quarter of new jobs are projected for the healthcare and social assistance industries, and 1 in 6 for professional, scientific, and technical services. In almost all industries, employment of these workers are expected to grow more slowly than overall employment, due to continued office automation, including that related to electronic business,6 and as organizations make greater use of temporary workers employed by the employment services industry. Thirteen out of 30 occupations with the largest projected job declines, including word processors and typists; stock clerks and order fillers; and secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive, are in this group. (See table 5.) However, a number of personal-contact occupations, such as receptionists and information clerks, and bill and account collectors, are less affected by changing technology, and have relatively large projected growth. Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are projected to grow by 35,000 jobs. Self-employed are projected to decline 7.6 percent, with most declines among fishers and related fishing workers. (Agricultural managers, including farmers and ranchers, are classified with management, business, and financial occupations.) The construction and extraction occupations major group is projected to add 1.1 million jobs, with 7 out of 10 in the construction industry. One new job in 9, and fastest growth, is projected for the employment services industry. A decline of 10,000 is projected for the mining industry—mostly for extraction workers. Self-employed construction and extraction workers are projected to increase slightly. Self-employed first-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers (mostly contractors) are projected to increase, while self-employed carpenters are projected to decline. Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations are projected to add 776,000 jobs. About 1 new job in 6 is projected for retail trade, which includes motor vehicle and parts dealers; 1 new job in 8 is projected for the construction industry, and 1 in 10, for automotive repair and maintenance. Selfemployed workers in this group are projected to remain unchanged. Self-employed heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers are projected to increase, but others are projected to decline. Production occupations are expected to add 354,000 jobs. Most growth is projected for rapidly-growing employment services, which provides employees to other industries on a contract or fee basis, while some growth is projected for wholesale and retail trade. Manufacturing, which employed 7 out of 10 production workers in 2002, is projected to lose nearly 200,000 of these workers. Self-employed production workers are projected to decline 8.8 percent, with largest declines among apparel occupations and woodworkers. Transportation and material moving occupations are projected to add 1.3 million jobs. More than 2 out of 5 new jobs should be in transportation and warehousing, and 1 in 4, Monthly Labor Review February 2004 99 Occupational Employment in employment services. Little change is projected for these workers in manufacturing, where 1 out of 6 was employed in 2002. Water transportation occupations are projected to grow slowly, while railroad occupations continue their long-term decline. Nearly half of new jobs should be for truck drivers and driver/sales workers. Little change is projected for selfemployed transportation workers. Detailed occupations This section focuses in occupations that are the fastest growing, have the largest numeric increases, and have the largest numeric declines. Data on numeric and percent growth for nearly 700 detailed occupations are presented in table 2. The growth rates for detailed occupations range from an increase of 59 percent for medical assistants to a decline of 56 percent for telephone operators. Numeric growth ranges from 623,000 additional jobs for registered nurses to a decline of 238,000 farmers and ranchers. The 30 occupations with the largest numeric increase (table 4) account for 44 percent of the 21.3-million total increase over the 2002–12 period. The 30 occupations that are projected as the fastest growing (table 3) have growth rates of 35 percent or greater, more than twice the average for all occupations or faster. Six occupations—three health related, two computer, and one education, are included in both groups—personal and home care aides; medical assistants; home health aides; computer software engineers, application; computer systems analysts; and postsecondary teachers. Table 3. Fastest growing occupations, 2002–12 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment 2000 standard occupation classification code and title 2002 2012 Change Quartile rank by 2002 median Number Percent annual earnings1 Most significant source of postsecondary education or training2 31-9092 15-1081 29-1071 21-1093 31-1011 29-2071 31-2022 15-1031 15-1032 31-2021 Medical assistants ..................................................... Network systems and data communications analysts Physician assistants .................................................. Social and human service assistants ........................ Home health aides .................................................... Medical records and health information technicians Physical therapist aides ............................................ Computer software engineers, applications .............. Computer software engineers, systems software ..... Physical therapist assistants ..................................... 365 186 63 305 580 147 37 394 281 50 579 292 94 454 859 216 54 573 409 73 215 106 31 149 279 69 17 179 128 22 59 57 49 49 48 47 46 46 45 45 3 1 1 3 4 3 3 1 1 2 Moderate-term on-the-job training Bachelor’s degree Bachelor’s degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Associate degree Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor’s degree Bachelor’s degree Associate degree 39-9031 15-1061 29-2056 47-4041 29-2021 31-2012 31-9091 39-9021 25-3021 15-1051 Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors .................. Database administrators ........................................... Veterinary technologists and technicians .................. Hazardous materials removal workers ...................... Dental hygienists ....................................................... Occupational therapist aides ..................................... Dental assistants ....................................................... Personal and home care aides ................................. Self-enrichment education teachers .......................... Computer systems analysts ...................................... 183 110 53 38 148 8 266 608 200 468 264 159 76 54 212 12 379 854 281 653 81 49 23 16 64 4 113 246 80 184 44 44 44 43 43 43 42 40 40 39 3 1 3 2 1 3 3 4 2 1 Postsecondary vocational award Bachelor’s degree Associate degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Associate degree Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Work experience in a related occupation Bachelor’s degree 31-2011 17-2081 25-1000 15-1071 19-4091 Occupational therapist assistants ............................. Environmental engineers .......................................... Postsecondary teachers ............................................ Network and computer systems administrators ........ Environmental science and protection technicians, including health ...................................................... Preschool teachers, except special education .......... Computer and information systems managers ......... Physical therapists .................................................... Occupational therapists ............................................. Respiratory therapists ............................................... 18 47 1,581 251 26 65 2,184 345 7 18 603 94 39 38 38 37 2 1 1 1 Associate degree Bachelor’s degree Doctoral degree Bachelor’s degree 28 424 284 137 82 86 38 577 387 185 110 116 10 153 103 48 29 30 37 36 36 35 35 35 2 4 1 1 1 2 Associate degree Postsecondary vocational award Bachelor’s or higher degree, plus work experience Master’s degree Bachelor’s degree Associate degree 25-2011 11-3021 29-1123 29-1122 29-1126 1 The quartile rankings of Occupational Employment Statistics annual earnings data are presented in the following categories: 1=very high ($41,820 and over), 2=high ($27,500 to $41,780), 3=low ($19,710 to $27,380), and 4=very low (up to $19,600). The rankings were based on quartiles using one-fourth of total employment to define each quartile. Earnings are for wage and salary workers. 100 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 2 An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2572 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). Table 4. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2002–12 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change 2000 standard occupation classification code and title 2002 29-1111 25-1000 41-2031 43-4051 35-3021 41-2011 37-2011 11-1021 35-3031 31-1012 53-3032 43-4171 33-9032 43-9061 25-9041 41-4012 31-1011 39-9021 53-3033 37-3011 25-2021 31-9092 49-9042 13-2011 15-1051 25-2031 15-1031 13-1111 35-2021 41-1011 Registered nurses ..................................................... Postsecondary teachers ............................................ Retail salespersons ................................................... Customer service representatives ............................. Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food .................................................. Cashiers, except gaming ........................................... Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners .......................................... General and operations managers ............................ Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants ................... Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer ..................... Receptionists and information clerks ........................ Security guards ......................................................... Office clerks, general ................................................ Teacher assistants .................................................... Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products .................................................................. Home health aides .................................................... Personal and home care aides ................................. Truck drivers, light or delivery services ..................... Landscaping and groundskeeping workers ............... Elementary school teachers, except special education ................................................................ Medical assistants ..................................................... Maintenance and repair workers, general ................. Accountants and auditors .......................................... Computer systems analysts ...................................... Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education ............................................... Computer software engineers, applications .............. Management analysts ............................................... Food preparation workers ......................................... First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers ................................................................... 2012 Number Percent Quartile rank by 2002 median annual earnings1 Most significant source of postsecondary education or training2 2,284 1,581 4,076 1,894 2,908 2,184 4,672 2,354 623 603 596 460 27 38 15 24 1 1 4 3 Associate degree Doctoral degree Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training 1,990 3,432 2,444 3,886 454 454 23 13 4 4 Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 2,267 2,049 2,097 1,375 2,681 2,425 2,464 1,718 414 376 367 343 18 18 18 25 4 1 4 3 Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor’s or higher degree, plus work experience Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 1,767 1,100 995 2,991 1,277 2,104 1,425 1,313 3,301 1,571 337 325 317 310 294 19 29 32 10 23 2 3 4 3 4 Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 1,459 580 608 1,022 1,074 1,738 859 854 1,259 1,311 279 279 246 237 237 19 48 40 23 22 1 4 4 3 3 Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 1,467 365 1,266 1,055 468 1,690 579 1,472 1,261 653 223 215 207 205 184 15 59 16 19 39 2 3 2 1 1 Bachelor’s degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Bachelor’s degree Bachelor’s degree 988 394 577 850 1,167 573 753 1,022 180 179 176 172 18 46 30 20 1 1 1 4 Bachelor’s degree Bachelor’s degree Bachelor’s or higher degree, plus work experience Short-term on-the-job training 1,798 1,962 163 9 2 Work experience in a related occupation 1 The quartile rankings of Occupational Employment Statistics annual earnings data are presented in the following categories: 1=very high ($41,820 and over), 2=high ($27,500 to $41,780), 3=low ($19,710 to $27,380), and 4=very low (up to $19,600). The rankings were based on quartiles using one-fourth of total employment to define each quartile. Earnings are for wage and salary workers. Fastest growing occupations. Fifteen of the 30 fastest growing occupations are health related, 7 are computer-related occupations, 3 are teachers, and 3 are environment related. (See table 3.) The others are social and human services assistants, and fitness trainers and aerobics instructors. The two healthcare groups discussed in the previous section—healthcare practitioners and technical occupations, and healthcare support occupations—have a combined growth rate of 28.8 percent. Rapid growth among health-related occupations reflects an aging population that requires more healthcare, a wealthier population that can afford better healthcare, and advances in medical technology that permit more health problems to be treated more aggressively. How- 2 An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2572 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). ever, job growth among health-related occupations will be limited by efforts to control the rapid growth of spending on healthcare, both by private medical insurers and by government—to restrict the growth of Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements. Even so, continued efforts to control healthcare costs should stimulate some health-related occupations (mostly aides, assistants, and technicians) to grow even more rapidly than overall health employment. They will assume some duties formerly done by more highly paid healthcare workers, such as dentists, physicians, and therapists. These include dental assistants, dental hygienists, physician assistants, physical therapist assistants and aides, and occupational therapist assistants and aides. Some healthcare occu- Monthly Labor Review February 2004 101 Occupational Employment pations also will grow more rapidly than overall healthcare employment because they are more likely to provide services to the rapidly growing older population. These include some listed above, such as physical and occupational therapist assistants and aides, as well as physical therapists, occupational therapists, and respiratory therapists. Employment of medical assistants should grow the fastest of any occupation, as they perform an increasing share of administrative and clinical duties in rapidly-growing offices of physicians. The number of medical records and health information technicians employed also is expected to grow rapidly due to the need to maintain records for an increasing number of medical tests, treatments, and procedures that will undergo greater scrutiny by third-party payers, regulators, courts, and consumers. Employment of home health aides and of personal and home care aides (included in this discussion of healthrelated occupations but classified as a personal service occupation in table 2) also should be stimulated, as the older population grows and as efforts to contain healthcare costs continue. The older population is more likely to need in-home healthcare, as well as personal care and housekeeping that these workers provide. In addition, patients of all ages are being discharged from hospitals and nursing facilities as early as possible. These aides also provide care to this rapidly growing group of patients. Employment of veterinary technologists and technicians, also classified as a healthcare occupation, is projected to grow rapidly as pet owners spend more on advanced animal care services, such as preventive dental care and surgical procedures. The increasing demand for computer-related occupations reflects the rapid advances in computer technology and the continuing development of new computer applications, including the Internet and Intranets. Overall, computer specialists, a component of computer and mathematical occupations, is projected to grow 35.8 percent; and computer and information systems managers—classified within management, business, and financial occupations—is projected to grow 36.1 percent. (See table 2.) Two computer-related occupations also are among the occupations with the largest projected numerical job growth. (See table 4). Employment of environmental engineers; environmental science and protection technicians, including health; and hazardous material removal workers will be stimulated by a need to met environmental regulations, develop methods of cleaning up existing hazards, and, more generally, respond to increasing public concern for a safe and clean environment. Employment of postsecondary school teachers is projected to grow as the population of 18- to 24-year-olds increases and as more adults return to college, but the number of tenuretrack positions is expected to decline as institutions seek flexibility in dealing with financial matters and changing student interests. Employment of preschool teachers, except 102 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 special education, should grow as the proportion of preschoolage children attending school increases, while employment of self-enrichment education teachers is expected to grow as more people embrace lifelong learning, particularly retired baby boomers. Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors are projected to grow rapidly, due to rising interest in personal training, aerobics classes, and other fitness activities. Social and human service assistants are projected to grow rapidly as employers attempt to control costs in the face of rapid growth in demand for services. Social service agencies are restructuring services and hiring more lower-paid social and human service assistants instead of social workers. Twenty-one of the 30 fastest growing occupations generally require a postsecondary vocational award or a degree.7 This is consistent with growth rates by major group presented in the previous section. The fastest growing group, professional and related, is made up mostly of occupations that generally require this level of education. Thirteen of the fastest growing occupations are concentrated in the first earnings quartile and eight in the third earnings quartile. Occupations with the largest job growth. Very large occupations with average or even below-average growth rates provide many job openings, as do very fast growing ones with smaller base-year employment. These 30 occupations shown on table 4 are from a much broader range of occupational groups than are the 30 fastest growing. Five are health related, and six are service occupations other than those related to health, including three in food service and two in building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations. Four each are in education, training, and library, and in sales and related occupations. Three each are in management, business, and financial, and in office and administrative support occupations; and two each are in computer and mathematical, and in transportation and material moving major occupation groups; one is installation, maintenance, and repair. Twenty-one of the 30 had 2002 employment of 1 million or more. Of the others, seven have projected growth at least twice the 14.8-percent average for all occupations. The three largest occupations in 2002, each with employment of 3 million or more, are projected to grow more slowly than the total for all occupations. Registered nurses and nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants—by far the two largest health-related occupations in 2002—are projected to have more numerical growth than any other health-related occupations. Home health aides, medical assistants, and personal and home care aides, all among the 30 fastest growing, are also on this list. The four largest education, training, and library occupations in 2002— postsecondary teachers; elementary school teachers, except special education; teachers assistants; and secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education—are also among the top 30 occupations. Of the four sales and related occupations: retail salespersons and cashiers, except gaming are projected to grow about as fast as the average for all occupations; while sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products are projected to grow somewhat faster. First-line supervisors/ managers of retail sales workers are projected to grow relatively slowly, with a 9.7-percent decline among the self-employed (owners of stores and other retail businesses). Management analysts and security guards are projected to grow about twice as fast as the average for all occupations, while accountants and auditors and general and operations managers should grow somewhat faster than the average. The list has three food-service occupations—combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food and waiters and waitresses, have base-year employment of about 2 million, while food preparation workers has 850,000. Of the two transportation and material moving occupations: truck drivers, heavy and tractor trailer; and truck drivers, light and delivery services, are projected to grow 19 and 23 percent, respectively. Among building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations, janitors and cleaners is projected to have more openings than landscaping and groundskeeping workers, even though the latter is projected to grow faster. Of the three office and administrative support occupations, customer service representatives and receptionists and information clerks are projected to grow rapidly, while office clerks, general, with employment of 3 million, is projected to grow relatively slowly. Half of the 30 occupations with the largest numerical job growth are in the short-term on-the-job training category, and 9 are in the associate or higher degree category. Of those with the largest numeric increases, 9 are in the first, and 10 are in the fourth earnings quartile. Table 5. Occupations with the largest job decline, 2002–12 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change 2000 standard occupation classification code and title 2002 11-9012 51-6031 43-9022 43-5081 43-6014 51-2022 43-9011 43-2021 43-5053 43-4131 43-9021 41-9041 51-6063 51-6064 51-2092 43-4151 41-9091 41-3041 43-4011 43-4061 51-5022 45-3011 51-6051 51-6062 51-6061 27-3010 43-5041 51-8091 51-9023 43-4041 2012 Number Percent Quartile rank by 2002 median annual earnings1 Most significant source of postsecondary education or training2 Farmers and ranchers ............................................... Sewing machine operators ........................................ Word processors and typists ..................................... Stock clerks and order fillers ..................................... Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive .... Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers ....... Computer operators .................................................. Telephone operators ................................................. Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators ............................... Loan interviewers and clerks ..................................... 1,158 315 241 1,628 1,975 281 182 50 920 216 148 1,560 1,918 230 151 22 -238 -99 -93 -68 -57 -51 -30 -28 -21 -31 -39 -4 -3 -18 -17 -56 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 Long-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 253 170 226 146 -26 -24 -10 -14 2 2 Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Data entry keyers ...................................................... Telemarketers ........................................................... Textile knitting and weaving machine setters, operators, and tenders ........................................... Textile winding, twisting, and drawing out machine setters, operators, and tenders .............................. Team assemblers ...................................................... Order clerks ............................................................... Door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers ................................. Travel agents ............................................................ Brokerage clerks ....................................................... Eligibility interviewers, government programs ........... 392 428 371 406 -21 -21 -5 -5 3 4 Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Prepress technicians and workers ............................ Fishers and related fishing workers .......................... Sewers, hand ............................................................ Textile cutting machine setters, operators, and tenders ................................................................... Textile bleaching and dyeing machine operators and tenders ................................................................... Announcers ............................................................... Meter readers, utilities ............................................... Chemical plant and system operators ....................... Mixing and blending machine setters, operators, and tenders ................................................................... Credit authorizers, checkers, and clerks ................... 53 33 -20 -39 3 Long-term on-the-job training 66 1,174 330 46 1,155 311 -20 -19 -19 -30 -2 -6 3 3 3 Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 155 118 78 94 137 102 67 83 -18 -16 -11 -11 -12 -14 -15 -12 3 3 2 2 Short-term on-the-job training Postsecondary vocational award Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training 91 36 36 81 27 29 -10 -10 -8 -11 -27 -21 2 3 4 Long-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 34 26 -8 -23 3 Moderate-term on-the-job training 27 76 54 58 19 68 46 51 -8 -8 -8 -7 -29 -10 -14 -12 3 3 2 1 Moderate-term on-the-job training Long-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Long-term on-the-job training 106 80 99 74 -7 -5 -7 -7 2 3 Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 1 The quartile rankings of Occupational Employment Statistics annual earnings data are presented in the following categories: 1=very high ($41,820 and over), 2=high ($27,500 to $41,780), 3=low ($19,710 to $27,380), and 4=very low (up to $19,600). The rankings were based on quartiles using one-fourth of total employment to define each quartile. Earnings are for wage and salary workers. 2 An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2572 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). Monthly Labor Review February 2004 103 Occupational Employment Declining occupations. This section of the article focuses just on those occupations with the largest numerical job declines because many detailed occupations with the fastest rates of decline are small, with very small employment declines. (See table 5.) Thirteen of the occupations with the largest declines are office and administrative support, 11 are production, and 3 are sales and related. Others are farmers and ranchers, fishers and related fishing workers, and announcers. Changes in technology or business practices will reduce the demand for most of the 30 occupations. Advances in computer, optical scanning, and voice recognition technologies and growth in electronic business will reduce demand for word processors and typists; stock clerks and order fillers; secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive; telephone operators; postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators; loan interviewers and clerks; data entry keyers; order clerks; and other office and administrative support occupations.8 Advances in technology, such as faster machines and more automated processes, and a shift of assembly and other production activities to other countries will lower employment for electrical and electronic equipment assemblers, team assemblers, chemical plant and systems operators, and mixing and blending machine workers. Prepress technicians and workers also will be affected as electronic publishing and printing-on-demand limit the production of printed material. Employment in the textile and apparel industries will decline, due to greater imports—as import quotas are lifted—and to improved production technology. This will cause employment declines for sewing machine operators; sewers, hand; and the four textile machine operator occupations listed on table 5. Farmers and ranchers will decline as market pressures cause farm consolidation and as farm technology improves. Employment of travel agents should decline as more travelers rely on the Internet to book travel. Telemarketers will decrease as more people opt out of receiving calls and as blocking technology improves. Door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers will decline due to competition from stores and on-line outlets. Radio and television station consolidation and improved editing and other off-air technologies are expected to lower employment of announcers. Fishers and related workers are projected to decline as the stock of fish decreases and the technology for finding fish improves. Thirteen of the 30 occupations with the largest numerical declines were in the moderate-term on-the-job training category, 11 were in the short-term category, and none were in a degree category. Of the largest declines, 9 are in the second earnings quartile, and 16 are in the third earnings quartile. Total job openings In addition to occupational employment growth, another aspect of the demand for workers is the need to replace those who leave their jobs to enter other occupations, retire, or leave the labor force for other reasons. Job openings resulting from replacement needs are very important because, in most occupations, they exceed those resulting from employment growth. Even occupations that are projected to decline provide some job openings—for example, farmers and ranchers and aerospace engineers. (See table 2.) The measure of replacement needs is complex because of the continuous movement of workers into and out of occupations. The replacement needs cited in this article are based on the net change in employment (entrants minus separations) in each age cohort over the projection period. Although this measure understates the total number of job openings in an occupation, it best represents the job openings for new labor force entrants over the projection period.9 Over the 2002–12 period, more job openings are expected to result from replacement needs (35 million) than from employment growth in the economy (21.3 million). Service occupations are projected to have the most total job openings, 13 million. The number of job openings due to net replacement needs should exceed the number due to growth in major groups with average or below-average projected growth, as well as those among service occupations, which includes many occupations with high turnover. Food preparation and serving occupations have particularly high replacement needs. However, healthcare support occupations should have only half as many replacement openings as growth openings. The only major group with fewer openings from replacement needs than from employment growth is professional and related occupations, the fastest growing. Even within this group, however, replacement openings exceed growth openings in three subgroups—architecture and engineering; life, physical, and social scientists; and arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations. Notes 1 Occupational projections presented in this article provide information to those interested in labor market issues. They also provide the background for analyses of future employment opportunities described in the forthcoming 2004–05 Occupational Outlook Handbook. The Internet version of this edition of the Handbook, which will be accessible at http://www.bls.gov/oco/, is expected to be available in late February 2004; the print version of 104 Monthly Labor Review February 2004 the 2004–05 Handbook, BLS Bulletin 2570, should be available in Spring 2004. Job outlook information in the 2004–05 Handbook will use the projections presented in each of the articles in this issue of the Monthly Labor Review. For a description of the methodology used to develop employment projections, see BLS Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2490 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 1997), pp. 122–29. 2 Occupational data reflect the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification system. Base year employment data were developed using the 2002 Occupational Employment Statistics Survey, supplemented with data from the Current Population Survey for selfemployed and unpaid family workers. 3 The Bureau has recently shifted to the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS ). Industry data in this article reflect this shift. The NAICS classification will also be used in an article on high technology in a forthcoming issue of the Review. The article will update High-technology employment: a broader view, which appeared in the June 1999 Review. 4 Previous occupational projections articles in the Review included State and local government education employment and hospital employment in the education services and health services industries, respectively. This article includes them with government—as do industry output and employment projections articles in this and earlier issues of the Review. 5 Ibid. 6 Daniel E. Hecker, “Employment impact of electronic business,” Monthly Labor Review, May 2001, p. 5. 7 Education and training categories listed in tables 3, 4, and 5 show the category that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. However, for many occupations there are other sources of education and training, as well. Data from the Bureau’s Current Population Survey show that for most occupations, workers have a variety of education levels. More detail on education and training is available in the Occupational Outlook Handbook; more on education and training categories is available in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2572 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). Also, see footnote 1. 8 Hecker, “Employment impact…” 9 Net separations do not count all movements of workers out of an occupation, which is a measure termed total separations. For example, an opening caused by a worker who stops working for a period and then gets another job in his or her previous occupation would be counted in the measure of total separations but not net separations. See the discussion on the uses of replacement needs information developed in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2572 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). Monthly Labor Review February 2004 105