EUROPEAN
ENERGY AND TRANSPORT
Scenarios on high oil and gas prices
Directorate-General
for Energy and Transport
EUROPEAN
COMMISSION
EUROPEAN ENERGY
AND TRANSPORT
Scenarios on high oil and gas prices
European
Commission
This publication was prepared by the Institute of Communication and Computer Systems of National
Technical University of Athens (ICCS-NTUA), E3M-Lab, Greece, for the Directorate-General for Energy
and Transport and represents that organisation’s views on energy facts, figures and projections.
These views have not been adopted or in any way approved by the Commission and should not be
relied upon as a statement of the Commission’s or the Directorate-General’s views.
Authors: Dr. L. Mantzos and Prof. P. Capros.
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The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in
this publication, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof.
The manuscript was completed on 14 September 2006.
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ISBN 92-79-02798-0
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 5
SCENARIOS ON HIGH OIL AND GAS PRICES .......................................................................................... 9
1.1.
INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 9
1.2.
THE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK UNDER ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND RESOURCES
AVAILABILITY ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................................. 9
1.2.1.
The “World Baseline” scenario .................................................................................................. 10
1.2.2.
The “World medium gas and soaring oil prices” and “World soaring oil and gas prices”
scenario ..................................................................................................................................................... 13
1.3.
THE “MEDIUM GAS AND SOARING OIL PRICES” CASE ............................................................................ 17
1.3.1.
Modelling approach..................................................................................................................... 17
1.3.2.
“Medium gas and soaring oil prices” scenario results for EU-25.............................................. 17
1.4.
1.3.2.1.
Overview of main results .........................................................................................................................17
1.3.2.2.
Final energy demand ................................................................................................................................19
1.3.2.3.
Electricity and steam generation ..............................................................................................................22
1.3.2.4.
CO2 emissions and concluding remarks ...................................................................................................24
“SOARING OIL AND GAS PRICES” SCENARIO RESULTS FOR EU-25......................................................... 26
GLOSSARY ....................................................................................................................................................... 29
APPENDIX 1: “MEDIUM GAS AND SOARING OIL PRICES” CASE RESULTS ................................ 33
SUMMARY RESULTS BY GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (COMPARISON TO BASELINE)............................................. 33
APPENDIX 2: “SOARING OIL AND GAS PRICES” CASE RESULTS .................................................. 47
SUMMARY RESULTS BY GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (COMPARISON TO BASELINE)............................................. 47
3
List of figures
FIGURE 2-1: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY PRICES FOR THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET UNDER
ALTERNATIVE WORLD SCENARIOS
14
FIGURE 3-1: CHANGES IN FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE
IN MTOE) IN THE “MEDIUM GAS AND SOARING OIL PRICES” CASE
21
FIGURE 3-2: CHANGES IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY ENERGY FORM IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM
BASELINE IN TWH) IN THE “MEDIUM GAS AND SOARING OIL PRICES” CASE
22
FIGURE 3-3: CHANGES IN CO2 EMISSIONS IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MT CO2) IN THE
“MEDIUM GAS AND SOARING OIL PRICES” CASE
25
List of Tables
TABLE 2-1: KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE “WORLD BASELINE” SCENARIO
10
TABLE 2-2: WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE “WORLD BASELINE” SCENARIO
11
TABLE 2-3: KEY INDICATORS FOR THE WORLD ENERGY SYSTEM IN THE “WORLD BASELINE”
SCENARIO
12
TABLE 2-4: PRIMARY ENERGY PRICES IN THE “WORLD BASELINE” SCENARIO
13
TABLE 2-5: WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE “WORLD MEDIUM GAS AND SOARING
OIL PRICES” SCENARIO
15
TABLE 2-6: KEY INDICATORS FOR THE WORLD ENERGY SYSTEM IN THE “WORLD MEDIUM
GAS AND SOARING OIL PRICES” SCENARIO
16
TABLE 2-7: KEY INDICATORS FOR THE WORLD ENERGY SYSTEM IN THE “SOARING OIL AND
GAS PRICES” SCENARIO
16
TABLE 3-1: PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND IN EU-25 IN THE “MEDIUM GAS AND SOARING OIL
PRICES” CASE
18
TABLE 3-2: IMPORT DEPENDENCY IN EU-25 IN THE “MEDIUM GAS AND SOARING OIL PRICES”
CASE
19
TABLE 3-3: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSION BY SECTOR IN EU-25 IN THE
“MEDIUM GAS AND SOARING OIL PRICES” CASE
19
TABLE 3-4: INSTALLED CAPACITY BY PLANT TYPE IN EU-25 IN THE “MEDIUM GAS AND
SOARING OIL PRICES” CASE
23
TABLE 3-5: FUEL INPUT IN THE EU-25 POWER GENERATION SECTOR IN THE “MEDIUM GAS
AND SOARING OIL PRICES” CASE
24
TABLE 4-1: EVOLUTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY NEEDS IN THE EU-25 ENERGY SYSTEM IN THE
“SOARING OIL AND GAS PRICES” CASE
26
4
Executive Summary
For the last few years, the EU has experienced rising import prices for oil and gas, which have
reached in summer 2006 unprecedented levels in nominal terms. Oil and gas prices may continue
rising and it is no longer only a remote possibility that the oil price could reach a level of 100 $
per barrel in money of 2005 in say 2030. In any case, it is worthwhile to examine the energy
consequences of such possible developments given that energy import prices are one key driver
for the development of EU-25 energy demand and supply. In the past gas prices have followed
oil prices rather closely. While this cannot be excluded as a possible future development even
under very high oil prices, an alternative development might materialise, in which gas prices
would decouple somewhat more form oil prices. Therefore two alternative scenarios have been
examined, addressing different pathways for the evolution of the world energy system and their
impact on energy import prices for the EU-25:
• The “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case has oil prices close to 100$ per barrel in real
terms on the assumption of higher economic growth in parts of Asia (China, India and other
Asian developing countries) in combination to relatively less abundant resources than in the
Baseline1 scenario. Furthermore, this case is characterised by the assumption that gas prices
are no longer linked with the oil price.
•
In the “Soaring oil and gas prices” case with the same oil price path, the assumptions as
regards economic growth and availability of fossil fuel resources are identical to those of the
“Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case; but gas prices remain linked to the evolution of
the oil price.
International energy prices for Europe under alternative scenarios
100
Oil-Soaring
$ of 2005 per barrel of oil equivalent
90
80
Gas-Soaring
70
Oil-Baseline
60
Gas-Medium
50
Gas-Baseline
40
30
Coal-Soaring
20
Coal-Baseline
10
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: POLES.
1
See European Energy and Transport
Trends to 2030 – update 2005 available
http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/energy_transport/figures/trends_2030_update_2005/index_en.htm
from:
5
The projections for the energy import prices in the two alternative scenarios derive from the
output of the POLES model, as was the case for the Baseline scenario. The two alternative price
scenarios focus on the impacts that faster world economic growth in combination with relatively
less abundant resources could have on the evolution of international fuel prices, which in turn
affects the world energy outlook. World GDP grows at a rate of 3.3% pa in 2001-2030 (0.2
percentage points above “World Baseline” levels per annum). The difference between the two
alternative cases is about the relation of gas to the oil prices. In both alternative cases oil and coal
prices are the same, but gas prices follows different trajectories with lower gas price growth in
the medium gas price case than in the soaring oil and gas price scenario (see figure above).
The oil price in 2010 reaches 62 $05 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), up 15 % from 2005
levels. In 2030 the oil price is further rising to 99 $05 per boe (compared to 58 $05 per boe in the
baseline scenario), which is an increase of more than 70% compared with the baseline. The coal
import prices also grow on top of Baseline levels, however at a much slower pace compared to
oil. The price for imported coal for the European market reaches 14 $05 per boe in 2010 and 20
$05 per boe in 2030 exceeding the Baseline level by 32% in 2030.
In the “medium gas and soaring oil prices" case, the price of natural gas in the European market
reaches 35 $05 per boe in 2010 and 56 $05 per boe in 2030 (2% and 25% higher than in the
Baseline scenario, respectively). In the “soaring oil and gas prices” case, natural gas prices
exhibit an even higher growth over the projection period reaching 37 $05 per boe in 2010 (+9%
from Baseline levels) and 73 $05 per boe in 2030 (+64% from Baseline levels.
In the two sub-cases, except from different import price trajectories, all assumptions (notably
energy policies as well as GDP and sectoral production structure) remain unchanged from the
Baseline.
Effects of higher fossil fuel prices
The higher prices in the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” and the “Soaring oil and gas
prices” cases lead to significant changes in the evolution of world primary energy supply in
comparison to the “World Baseline” scenario. In particular, energy demand is lower than under
Baseline developments due to higher energy prices despite higher world economic growth.
Consequently, energy intensity improves relative to Baseline - the more so, the higher the gas
prices are (soaring oil and gas prices case).
The different import price developments affect above all the fuel structure favouring in particular
renewables and nuclear in the long run, but also solid fuels. Coal and lignite are encouraged with
strongly growing oil and gas prices. However, in the medium and long term, the competitive
advantage that renewables and nuclear gain with high fossil fuel prices (including for coal)
becomes more important. Given these changes in the fuel structure, CO2 emissions would
exceed baseline levels in the short term (2010) as high oil and gas prices encourage more coal
use. Only in the medium and long term the effects of higher fossil fuel prices on the
competitiveness of renewables and nuclear prevail, which leads to world CO2 emissions that are
somewhat below baseline levels. These effects are somewhat more pronounced in case of soaring
oil and gas prices. More details including on the world baseline are shown in part 2.2 of this
report.
The main purpose of this study is the analysis of the effects of high oil and gas prices on the EU
energy system. The EU energy system reacts to higher import prices and the entailed higher
energy costs through changes in the fuel mix as well as in terms of improving energy intensity.
Primary energy consumption grows less with higher import prices in the two sub-case and the
fuel structure changes in favour of renewables, nuclear and solid fuels – however at different
degrees according to the scenario.
6
EU-25: Medium gas and soaring oil price scenario results
In the "medium gas and soaring oil price" case, primary energy demand is about 1% lower than
Baseline in 2010 with a slightly higher reduction in 2030 (almost -2%). Energy intensity
improves accordingly as GDP of the EU remains unchanged from Baseline in this partial
equilibrium modelling.
The most important changes occur in the fuel mix. Oil exhibits the strongest decline from
Baseline levels (-4.8% in 2010, -7.9% in 2030). In the long term, demand for both solid fuels and
natural gas decline from Baseline levels (-2.5% and -1.5% respectively in 2030). In 2010 and
2020 consumption of natural gas and coal is somewhat higher than in the Baseline as a result of
several price induced substitution processes including the replacement of oil with natural gas in
household and services as well a more solid fuel use in power generation to the detriment of oil
and gas. Higher fossil fuel prices lead to a strong increase in the use of renewable energy forms
(+6.0% from Baseline levels in 2020, +9.4% in 2030). Nuclear energy is also projected to
become a more competitive option in the long run exceeding Baseline levels by +5.9% in 2030.
The renewables share in gross energy consumption increases somewhat compared with Baseline
(+0.2 and +1.4 percentage points in 2010 and 2030 respectively). However, higher fossil fuel
prices alone deliver only a limited contribution towards achieving renewables targets, such as the
12% share in gross energy consumption in 2010.
Shares of primary energy sources (in %)) in the Medium gas and soaring oil price
scenario and changes from Baseline (percentage points)
2000
2010
2020
2030
Change from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
Solid fuels
18.5
16.1
14.4
15.3
+0.2
+0.6
-0.1
Oil
38.4
35.4
33.3
31.7
-1.5
-2.3
-2.1
Gas
22.8
26.4
28.7
27.4
+0.9
+0.6
0.0
Nuclear
14.4
13.8
12.4
12.0
+0.1
+0.2
+0.9
Renewables
5.8
8.2
11.1
13.5
+0.2
+0.8
+1.4
As a result of these changes in the fuel mix and of slightly lower energy intensity, CO2
emissions grow at a slower pace than in the Baseline scenario in the short to medium term
(+1.2% from 1990 levels in 2010, +1.3% in 2020). In the long term, CO2 emissions decrease to
minus 0.4% from 1990 levels in 2030.
The higher deployment of renewables and nuclear in the long term, in combination with the
increasing cost effectiveness of exploiting indigenous fossil fuel resources, leads to a somewhat
lower import dependency reaching 61.2% in 2030, which is 3.7 percentage points below
Baseline levels.
EU-25: Soaring oil and gas price scenario
The “Soaring oil and gas prices” case has high gas prices in addition to high oil prices close to
100$ per barrel in 2030. This leads to a small reduction of energy requirements in the EU-25
energy system in comparison to the Baseline scenario (-1.8% in 2030) and a more favourable
development for CO2 emissions (reaching +0.8% from 1990 levels in 2030 compared to +4.7%
in the Baseline scenario). The import dependency of the EU-25 is also lower than in the Baseline
reaching 59.7% in 2030 compared to 64.8% in the Baseline scenario. Similarly, the “Soaring oil
and gas prices” case produces somewhat higher renewables shares.
7
However, in comparison with the “Medium gas and soaring oil price” case, the linking of gas to
oil prices exhibits some disadvantages. In addition to the competitiveness disadvantages of
higher gas prices for the EU economy, such higher gas prices would also lead to higher CO2
emission in the long term, as higher gas prices encourage more solid fuel use. Whereas CO2
emissions fall slightly below the 1990 level in 2030 in the “Medium gas and soaring oil price”
case, they stay above the 1990 level in the entire projection period with soaring gas prices, i.e.
when gas and oil prices are coupled. It is far from clear whether the slightly higher renewables
share in the “Soaring oil and gas price case” in 2030 (14.0% in gross energy consumption instead
of 13.5% with medium gas prices) as well as the somewhat lower import dependency (59.7% in
2030 instead of 61.2%) can outweigh these disadvantages.
8
Scenarios on high oil and gas prices
1.1.
Introduction
Energy import prices are one key driver for the development of EU-25 energy demand
and supply. In the Baseline scenario2 of 2005 the evolution of international fuel prices
reflects a conventional wisdom view of the development of the world energy system with
relatively abundant oil and gas resources. However, large uncertainties prevail as regards
the evolution of international fuel prices, related both on the possible different economic
growth patterns for the different world regions as well as on the availability of fossil fuel
resources. The price volatility seen in the last few years adds to this uncertainty. Oil and
gas prices have continued to increase to levels that hardly anybody would have expected
a few years ago.
In that context two alternative scenarios have been examined, addressing different
pathways for the evolution of the world energy system and their impact on energy import
prices for the EU-25 energy system:
•
The “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case, assumes a higher economic
growth in parts of Asia (China, India and other Asian developing countries) in
combination to relatively less abundant resources than in the Baseline scenario.
Furthermore, this case is characterised by the assumption that gas prices are no
longer linked with the oil price.
•
In the “Soaring oil and gas prices” case, the assumptions as regards economic
growth and availability of fossil fuel resources are identical to those of the
“Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case with gas prices remaining linked to the
evolution of the oil price.
The projections for the energy import prices assumed in the two alternative scenarios
derive from the output of the POLES model,3 as was the case for the Baseline scenario.
The next chapter provides a short description of the three consistent international energy
scenarios with contrasted oil and gas price profiles, and an analysis of their consequences
on the key variables of the world energy system, on the basis of the POLES model
projections. In chapter 3, the impacts of the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case on
the future evolution of the EU-25 energy system are discussed in detail. A brief
discussion of the impacts of the “Soaring oil and gas prices” case is also provided.
1.2.
The World energy outlook under alternative
development and resources availability assumptions
economic
The work with the POLES model, undertaken by LEPII/EPE-CNRS focused on the
examination of world market trends and resulting international fuel price trajectories
2
European energy and transport: Trends to 2030 –update 2005 (2006).
3
The POLES model is a global sectoral model of the world energy system. The development of the POLES
model has been partially funded under the Joule II and Joule III programmes of DG XII of the European
Commission. Since 1997 the model has been fully operational and can produce detailed long-term (2030)
world energy and CO2 emission outlooks with demand, supply and price projections by main region. The
model splits the world into 26 regions. For the model design see the model reference manual: POLES 2.2.
European Commission, DG XII, December 1996.
9
under different assumptions as regards the availability of fuel resources, as well as issues
related to economic growth for the different world regions. The presentation of the
international framework puts the analysis for the EU in the global context.
1.2.1. The “World Baseline” scenario
The “World Baseline” scenario corresponds to an energy world developing on the basis
of economic fundamentals, without noticeable impacts of climate policies or of
geopolitical constraints on world oil development. As illustrated in Table 1.2-1,4 world
population is assumed to expand at a rate of 0.9% pa in 2001-2030 (from +1.4% pa in
1990-2001) whereas world GDP (expressed in power purchasing standards) grows at a
rate of 3.1% pa in 2001-2030. Thus, the average per capita GDP increases from 8324 $05
in 2001 up to 15814 $05 in 2030 (+2.2% pa in 2001-2030).
Table 1.2-1: Key assumptions for the “World Baseline” scenario
1990
Demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
5248
Population (million)
2001
2010
2020
2030
6112
6800
7510
8100
GDP (000 M$05-pps)
37105
50880
71713
98593
128095
Per capita GDP ($05/cap)
7070
8325
10546
13128
15814
Oil reserves
139.2
160.1
213.8
193.6
176.8
Gas reserves
121.0
146.0
203.8
223.4
228.7
Oil and gas reserves (in 000 Mtoe)
annual growth rate
90/01
Demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
1.39
Population (million)
01/10
10/20
20/30
01/30
1.19
1.00
0.76
0.94
GDP (billion $05)
2.91
3.89
3.23
2.65
3.13
Per capita GDP ($05/cap)
1.50
2.66
2.21
1.88
2.16
Oil reserves
1.28
3.27
-0.99
-0.90
0.33
Gas reserves
Source: POLES.
1.72
3.78
0.92
0.24
1.51
Oil and gas reserves
A key feature of the POLES model is its detailed simulation module for the oil and gas
discovery and development process, which is in particular essential to the endogenous
process of international oil and gas prices determination.5 In broad terms, the logic used
in order to model oil and gas supply and price is based on the following sequence:
4
5
•
The Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR) is derived from the US Geological
Survey (USGS) estimates, but is modified over the projection period in order to
account for the impact of increasing recovery rates (which are assumed to be
dependent on the oil and gas prices).
•
Discoveries depend on the drilling effort (also oil and gas price dependent) and
the reserves are equal to the total discoveries minus the past cumulative
production.
•
For all regions except the Gulf, the production depends on a price dependent
“reserve on production” or R/P ratio.
The POLES model uses 2001 as the base year for the analysis. Thus, in the tables referring to world
projections figures for 2001 (instead for 2000; as is the case for the EU-25) are provided.
World energy prices in the DG Research WETO-H2 project follow a similar approach
10
•
The international prices depends, in the case of oil on the world R/P ratio
(including non conventional oil), and for gas on regional R/P ratios as well as of
an indexation term to the oil price that can be modified according to the scenario
examined.
In this process, the most important exogenous hypothesis is related to the URR estimate
at the beginning of the simulation. The uncertainty concerning this set of hypotheses is
quite high as testifies the long-lasting controversy between ‘optimists’ and ‘pessimists’
concerning oil and gas resources. In order to produce the “World Baseline” scenario, a
relatively optimistic view on oil and gas resource availability has been adopted. In this
Baseline scenario world oil reserves will expand significantly between 2001 and 2010
(+33.5%). Beyond 2010, as the world production level exceeds the rate of additional
discoveries, world reserves will decline slowly, exceeding nevertheless in 2030 the 2001
level by 10.4%. World gas reserves also exhibit a significant growth between 2001 and
2010 (+39.6%) but slow down thereafter. However, even in the long run that annual
production levels remain below additional discoveries and consequently gas reserves
exhibit a further increase reaching +56.7% from 2001 levels in 2030.
Table 1.2-2: World Primary Energy Supply in the “World Baseline” scenario
Mtoe
1990
2001
2010
2020
2030
Coal, lignite
2168
2352
3176
3592
4387
Oil
3104
3644
4370
5787
6730
Natural gas
1747
2082
2889
3950
4728
Nuclear energy
509
671
736
833
1132
Renewable energy forms
1104
1341
1537
1642
1765
Hydro & Geothermal
193
232
275
313
346
Biomass & Waste
909
1101
1242
1278
1297
Wind and other renewables
Total
1
7
20
51
122
8631
10090
12708
annual growth rate
15804
18742
90/01
01/10
10/20
20/30
01/30
Coal, lignite
0.7
3.4
1.2
2.0
2.1
Oil
1.5
2.0
2.8
1.5
2.1
Natural gas
1.6
3.7
3.2
1.8
2.8
Nuclear energy
2.5
1.0
1.2
3.1
1.8
Renewable energy forms
1.8
1.5
0.7
0.7
0.9
Hydro & Geothermal
1.7
1.9
1.3
1.0
1.3
Biomass & Waste
1.8
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.5
17.6
11.8
9.8
9.1
9.8
1.4
2.6
2.2
1.7
2.1
Wind and other renewables
Total
Source: POLES.
World primary energy supply is projected to grow at a rate of 2.1% pa in 2001-2030
driven by increasing population and economic growth (see Table 1.2-2). In the “World
Baseline” scenario the global energy system will become even more dominated by fossil
fuels over the next 30 years as dependence on fossil fuels is projected to reach 84.5% in
2030 from 80.1% in 2001. Oil is projected to grow at rates similar to overall primary
energy supply and remains the most important source of energy at world level over the
projection period (accounting in 2030 for 35.9% of total primary supply from 36.1% in
2001). The most pronounced growth among fossil fuels is projected for natural gas
(+2.8% pa in 2001-2030) whereas primary supply of solid fuels grows at rates slightly
above average (+2.1% pa). In 2030 natural gas accounts for 25.2% of world primary
energy supply (+4.6 percentage points from 2001 levels) becoming the second most
important energy form in the world energy system. The share of solid fuels is projected
to reach 23.4% in 2030 (from 23.3% in 2001). The nuclear contribution to global primary
energy requirements will continue to increase but at a slower pace compared to the recent
11
past (+1.8% pa in 2001-2030 compared to +2.5% pa in 1990-2001) accounting in 2030
for 6.0% of primary energy supply (-0.7 percentage points from 2001 levels). Biomass
use in developing countries that is to a large extent unsustainable is expected to decline
with increasing living standards. Globally, biomass-waste utilisation increases only
moderately (+0.5% pa in 2001-2030) and in combination with limitations on further
hydro expansion the growth of renewable energy forms is limited to just 0.9% pa in
2001-2030. In 2030, renewables account for 9.4% of primary energy supply compared to
13.3% in 2001. Biomass and waste account for 82.2% of renewables supply in 2001 and
for 73.5% in 2030. On the contrary a substantial growth is projected for wind and solar
energy (+9.8% pa in 2001-2030) leading to an increase of their share in renewables
supply by 6.4 percentage points (from 0.5% in 2001 up to 6.9% in 2030).
Energy intensity improvements in the “World Baseline” scenario are projected to reach
1.0% pa in 2001-2030 (see Table 1.2-3), with consumption per capita increasing from
1.65 toe in 2001 to 2.31 toe in 2030 (+1.1% pa in 2001-2030).
Table 1.2-3: Key indicators for the world energy system in the “World Baseline”
scenario
Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe)
1990
2001
2010
2020
2030
8631
10090
12708
15804
18742
Gross Inl Cons / GDP (toe/M$05)
233
198
177
160
146
Gross Inland Cons./Capita (kgoe/cap)
1645
1651
1869
2104
2314
CO2 Emissions (Mtn CO2)
20822
23566
30521
38318
45722
CO2 Emissions / Capita (t of CO2/capita)
4.0
3.9
4.5
5.1
5.6
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
2.4
2.3
2.4
annual growth rate
2.4
2.4
01/30
90/01
01/10
10/20
20/30
Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe)
1.43
2.60
2.20
1.72
2.09
Gross Inl Cons / GDP (toe/M$05)
-1.44
-1.24
-1.00
-0.91
-1.01
Gross Inland Cons./Capita (kgoe/cap)
0.03
1.39
1.19
0.95
1.13
CO2 Emissions (Mtn CO2)
1.13
2.92
2.30
1.78
2.23
CO2 Emissions / Capita (t of CO2/capita)
-0.26
1.70
1.29
1.02
1.28
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Source: POLES.
-0.29
0.31
0.09
0.06
0.15
Given the above Baseline energy developments, global CO2 emissions will increase by
2.2% pa on average between 2001 and 2030. In 2030, world CO2 emissions will be more
than twice as high as in 1990 (an increase of 120% over the 1990 level). The projected
CO2 emissions growth is even slightly faster than primary energy consumption. The
carbon intensity of the world energy system is projected to worsen by 0.15% pa in 20012030, as changes in the fuel mix towards the use of fossil fuels are partly
counterbalanced by the projected shift towards the use of natural gas and away from coal.
The evolution of primary energy prices in the “World Baseline” scenario, illustrated in
Table 1.2-4, reflects a situation in which no strong supply constraints are supposed to be
felt at least in the period to 2020. The projected decline of the oil price, from the high
levels of 2005 (55 $05 per boe), in the period to 2010 reflects a modelled development of
relatively abundant supply due to competition among key producers. It should be recalled
that the modelling considers economic fundamentals but cannot address more short term
fluctuations reflecting e.g. enhanced geopolitical instabilities. After that date, when the
production of the Gulf and OPEC regions has to expand more rapidly to keep pace with
world demand, the oil price increases regularly and attains 58 $05 per boe in 2030, a
level that is higher than the one reached in 2005 under particularly tense supply
conditions.
12
Table 1.2-4: Primary energy prices in the “World Baseline” scenario
$05/boe
1990
2001
2010
2020
2030
32.4
35.9
44.6
48.1
57.6
American market
18.3
25.2
23.4
36.0
45.4
European and African market
13.1
17.9
33.9
37.0
44.7
Asian market
24.8
26.9
34.2
39.1
42.0
American market
15.3
8.3
9.9
12.2
15.3
European and African market
15.4
9.4
12.5
14.1
14.9
Asian market
11.1
8.9
12.1
annual growth rate
14.1
16.4
90/01
01/10
10/20
20/30
01/30
0.9
2.5
0.7
1.8
1.6
American market
2.9
-0.8
4.4
2.3
2.0
European and African market
2.9
7.3
0.9
1.9
3.1
Asian market
0.7
2.7
1.4
0.7
1.5
American market
-5.4
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.0
European and African market
-4.4
3.2
1.2
0.6
1.6
Asian market
Source: POLES.
-2.0
3.4
1.6
1.5
2.0
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
These changes reflect the built-in dynamic processes in the model: in the short run, oil
prices depend on changes in global oil demand and on the productive capacities of the
Gulf countries, considered as the "swing producers" in the oil market. In the longer run,
oil prices are likely to be influenced to a greater extent by the "fundamentals", i.e. the
relative dynamics of oil demand and of available reserves, which is measured by the
variations in the R/P ratio. In the “World Baseline” scenario the R/P ratio is projected to
increase from close to 46 years in 2001 up to 49 years in 2010 declining thereafter to
reach 26 years in 2030.
While the oil market is fairly integrated at a global level (“one great pool”), this is not the
case for gas and coal, the markets of which still show a strong regional basis. The main
reason for these regional differentiations is the high transportation cost of gas and coal,
relative to their production cost. Although the development of LNG transport facilities
will introduce some degree of trade-off between the regional gas markets the price
differentials are not expected to fully disappear over the next 30 years under baseline
assumptions. In the European and the American market natural gas prices are projected
to grow at rates well above those of oil in 2001-2030 (+2.0% pa and +3.1% pa
respectively compared to a growth of +1.6% pa for the oil price). In the Asian market the
growth reaches +1.5% pa in 2001-2030. Thus, in the “World Baseline” scenario the oil to
gas price ratio for the European gas market amounts to 1.3 in 2030 from 2.0 in 2001.
Coal prices are projected to grow faster in the American and Asian markets (+2.0 pa in
2001-2030) than in the European and African market (+1.6% pa). In 2030 the coal to oil
price ratio for the European market is projected to be 0.26, similar to the ratio in 2001.
1.2.2. The “World medium gas and soaring oil prices” and “World soaring
oil and gas prices” scenario
The assumption of abundant resources in the “World Baseline” scenario results in global
energy markets that remain well supplied at a relatively modest cost throughout the
projection period. This is a plausible setting but, of course, it is not the only one possible.
Substantial uncertainties surround both world economic growth and global energy
resources.
13
The “World medium gas and soaring oil prices” and “World soaring oil and gas prices”
cases focus on the impacts that faster world economic growth in combination with
relatively less abundant resources could have on the evolution of international fuel
prices, which in turn affects the world energy outlook.
World GDP grows at a rate of 3.3% pa in 2001-2030 (0.2 percentage points above
“World Baseline” levels per annum), leading to a GDP level that exceeds the Baseline
case by 1.5%, 3.3% and 4.9% in 2010, 2020 and 2030 respectively. The additional
growth occurs in China, India and the other Asian developing countries, whereas for
reasons of comparability concerning the effects of different import prices as distinct from
economic growth, GDP in the EU remains unchanged from Baseline levels.
Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR) for oil and natural gas are also assumed to be
significantly lower than in the “World Baseline”. The assumed oil URR is -19% lower in
2010 and -14% lower in 2030, whereas that for natural gas is -3.1% lower in 2010 and 13.8% lower in 2030.
Figure 1.2-1: International energy prices for the European energy market under
alternative world scenarios
100
Oil-Soaring
$ of 2005 per barrel of oil equivalent
90
80
Gas-Soaring
70
Oil-Baseline
60
Gas-Medium
50
Gas-Baseline
40
30
Coal-Soaring
20
Coal-Baseline
10
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: POLES.
The difference between the two alternative cases examined for the world energy outlook
concerns the approach retained as regards the evolution of natural gas prices in relation to
the oil price. Thus, in the “World medium gas and soaring oil prices” natural gas prices
are assumed to exhibit a strong de-linking from the evolution of the oil price whereas in
the “World soaring oil and gas prices” natural gas prices remain linked to the oil price.
Thus, while oil and coal prices exhibit the same growth pattern in both cases, the growth
on top of “World Baseline” levels for the natural gas prices in the “World medium gas
and soaring oil prices” scenario is significantly less pronounced than in the “World
soaring oil and gas prices” case (see Figure 1.2-1).
The oil price in 2010 reaches 61.9$05 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), up 14.6% from
2005 levels compared to a decline by -17.4% from 2005 levels projected in the “World
Baseline” scenario. In 2030 the oil price is further rising to 98.5$05 per boe (compared to
57.6$05 per boe in the “World Baseline” scenario, an increase of more than 70%). The
import price of coal is also projected to grow on top of Baseline levels, however at a
14
much slower pace compared to oil. The price for imported coal for the European market
increases by 8.7% from “World Baseline” levels in 2010 (reaching 13.6$05 per boe
compared to 12.5$05 per boe in the Baseline) and exceeds the Baseline level by 32.1% in
2030 (reaching 19.8$05 per boe, +3.8$05 per boe).
In the “World medium gas and soaring oil prices” case, the price of natural gas in the
European market reaches 34.6$05 per boe in 2010 and 55.9$05 per boe in 2030 (2.1%
and 24.8% higher than in the “World Baseline” scenario, respectively). In the “World
soaring oil and gas prices” case, natural gas prices exhibit an even higher growth over the
projection period reaching 36.8$05 per boe in 2010 (+8.8% from “World Baseline”
levels, +6.5% from “World medium gas and soaring oil prices” case) and 73.3$05 per
boe in 2030 (+64.0% from “World Baseline” levels, +31.3% from “World medium gas
and soaring oil prices” case).
The higher prices faced by the energy systems in the “World medium gas and soaring oil
prices” and the “World soaring oil and gas prices” cases lead to significant changes in the
evolution of world primary energy supply in comparison to the “World Baseline”
scenario.
In the “World medium gas and soaring oil prices” case energy supply is projected to
exhibit a slight growth on top of Baseline levels in 2010 (+0.2%) declining below
Baseline levels thereafter (-1.7% in 2020, -1.4% in 2030) despite the higher economic
growth (see Table 1.2-5). Furthermore, there are significant changes in the fuel mix with
supply for oil and natural gas exhibiting a strong decline from Baseline levels (-4.3% and
-0.1% respectively in 2010, -14.8% and -5.9% respectively in 2030). This is
compensated by higher use of all other energy forms. For solid fuels the growth on top of
Baseline levels ranges from +6.2% in 2010 up to +15.5% in 2030. Nuclear energy
becomes a more cost effective option for power generation in the long run (+1.7% in
2010, +19.9% in 2030) while the growth on top of Baseline levels for renewable energy
forms reaches up to +6.2% in 2030 (+0.8% in 2010).
Table 1.2-5: World Primary Energy Supply in the “World medium gas and soaring oil
prices” scenario
Mtoe
Coal, lignite
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy forms
Hydro & Geothermal
Biomass & Waste
Wind and other renewables
Total
Source: POLES.
2001
2352
3644
2082
671
1341
232
1101
7
10090
2010
3372
4181
2886
748
1550
275
1254
20
12737
% change from baseline
2020
4144
5088
3684
916
1707
317
1332
59
15540
2030
5066
5734
4451
1357
1875
352
1379
145
18483
2010
6.2
-4.3
-0.1
1.7
0.8
0.2
1.0
1.6
0.2
2020
15.4
-12.1
-6.7
10.0
4.0
1.3
4.2
15.3
-1.7
2030
15.5
-14.8
-5.9
19.9
6.2
1.6
6.3
18.9
-1.4
The share of fossil fuels in primary energy supply is projected to reach 82.5% in 2030 (2.0 percentage points from Baseline levels). The share of solid fuels is projected to grow
from 2001 levels over the projection period up to 27.4% in 2030 (from 23.4% in the
Baseline). Demand for liquid fuels is strongly affected by the prevailing higher prices
accounting for 31.0% of primary energy supply in 2030 compared to 35.9% in the
Baseline. Despite the higher natural gas prices prevailing in the “World medium gas and
soaring oil prices” case, energy demand for natural gas grows at rates above average over
the projection period though at a slower pace compared to the Baseline scenario; in 2030
natural gas account for 24.1% of primary energy supply from 25.2% in the Baseline
scenario. The higher competitiveness of nuclear energy in the long run is also reflected in
its market share which is projected to reach 7.3% in 2030 (+1.3 percentage points higher
than in the Baseline). Renewables, account for 10.1% of primary energy needs in 2030
compared to 9.4% in the Baseline. The growth of renewables is mainly driven by the
15
higher deployment of wind and solar energy (+18.9% from Baseline levels in 2030) but
also by high consumption of biomass and waste (+6.3% in 2030).
Table 1.2-6: Key indicators for the world energy system in the “World medium gas
and soaring oil prices” scenario
% change from baseline
2001
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Population (million)
6112
6800
7510
8100
0.0
0.0
0.0
GDP (000 M$05-pps)
52991
75805
106041
140000
1.5
3.3
4.9
Per capita GDP ($05/cap)
8669
11148
14119
17284
1.5
3.3
4.9
Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe)
10090
12737
15540
18483
0.2
-1.7
-1.4
Gross Inl Cons / GDP (toe/M$05)
190
168
147
132
-1.2
-4.8
-6.0
Gross Inland Cons./Capita (kgoe/cap)
1651
1873
2069
2282
0.2
-1.7
-1.4
CO2 Emissions (Mtn CO2)
23566
30772
38011
45055
0.8
-0.8
-1.5
CO2 Emissions / Capita (t of CO2/capita)
3.9
4.5
5.1
5.6
0.8
-0.8
-1.5
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Source: POLES.
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
0.6
0.9
-0.1
Concluding, the high energy import prices prevailing in the “World medium gas and
soaring oil prices” case lead to a significant decrease on top of Baseline levels for energy
intensity (-1.2% lower in 2010, -6.0% lower in 2030) achieved through the adoption of
more efficient technologies and the more rational use of energy by consumers following
higher energy prices (see Table 1.2-6). However, the changes in the fuel mix towards the
use of solid fuels more than counterbalance the corresponding growth, on top of Baseline
levels, for nuclear energy and renewable energy forms, leading to a worsening of carbon
intensity in the short to medium term. It is only in the long run that carbon intensity is
projected to be similar to the Baseline as a result of the strong deployment of nuclear
energy on top of Baseline levels. In 2010, global CO2 emissions are projected to be 0.8%
higher than in the Baseline scenario, whereas in 2030 they decline by -1.5% from
Baseline levels.
Table 1.2-7: Key indicators for the world energy system in the “Soaring oil and gas
prices” scenario
% change from baseline
2001
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Population (million)
6112
6800
7510
8100
0.0
0.0
0.0
GDP (000 M$05-pps)
52991
75805
106041
140000
1.5
3.3
4.9
Per capita GDP ($05/cap)
8669
11148
14119
17284
1.5
3.3
4.9
Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe)
10090
12729
15441
18259
0.2
-2.3
-2.6
Gross Inl Cons / GDP (toe/M$05)
190
168
146
130
-1.3
-5.4
-7.2
Gross Inland Cons./Capita (kgoe/cap)
1651
1872
2056
2254
0.2
-2.3
-2.6
CO2 Emissions (Mtn CO2)
23566
30784
37966
44814
0.9
-0.9
-2.0
CO2 Emissions / Capita (t of CO2/capita)
3.9
4.5
5.1
5.5
0.9
-0.9
-2.0
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Source: POLES.
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.5
0.7
1.4
0.6
In the “World Soaring oil and gas prices”, the particular strong growth of natural gas
prices (even higher than in the “World medium gas and soaring oil prices” case) leads to
further changes both as regards overall energy requirements as well as in the fuel mix. As
can be seen in Table 1.2-7 consumers faced with even higher energy prices react also
through further improvements in terms of energy intensity (down as much as -7.2% from
Baseline levels in 2030).
In the “World Soaring oil and gas prices” case, solid fuels grow faster than total energy
supply, so that the solid fuel share reaches 28.9% of primary energy supply in 2030.
Moreover, solids increase their contribution more than under medium gas price
conditions. Nuclear energy (7.9% in 2030) and renewables (10.4% in 2030) also grow
faster than in the Baseline and in the “World medium gas and soaring oil prices” case. In
16
addition, energy supply of liquid fuels declines at a slower pace from Baseline levels (11.8% in 2030 compared to -14.8% in the “World medium gas and soaring oil prices”
case). In 2030 oil is projected to account for 32.5% of world primary energy supply. On
the contrary, supply for natural gas declines substantially (-21.4% from Baseline levels in
2030 compared to -5.9% in the “World medium gas and soaring oil prices” case)
accounting for 20.3% of primary energy supply in 2030 (-4.9 percentage points in
comparison to the Baseline, -3.7 percentage points in comparison to the “World medium
gas and soaring oil prices” case).
The projected changes in the fuel mix lead to a worsening of carbon intensity (+0.7%
from Baseline levels in 2010, +0.6% in 2030). However, global CO2 emissions are
projected to increase from Baseline levels only in 2010 (+0.9%). In 2020 and 2030 global
CO2 emissions are projected to decline by -0.9% and -2.0% from Baseline levels as lower
energy requirements (-2.3% in 2020 and -2.6% in 2030) more than counterbalance the
projected worsening of carbon intensity.
1.3.
The “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case
1.3.1. Modelling approach
The “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case explores the possible evolution of the EU25 energy system in the presence of much higher energy import prices (as derived by the
POLES model in the “World medium gas and soaring oil prices” case) compared to the
Baseline scenario.
All remaining assumptions (demographic, macroeconomic and policy ones) remain
unchanged from Baseline levels. It is assumed that economic agents successfully
anticipate the changes in prices so that the energy using capital stock over the projection
period is the one that agents planned in advance; and they do not find themselves in a
situation where they have to scrap or retrofit equipment that would prove uneconomic in
the price environment assumed under each scenario.
1.3.2.
“Medium gas and soaring oil prices” scenario results for EU-256
1.3.2.1. Overview of main results
In the presence of higher energy import prices, leading to higher energy costs both on the
demand and the supply sides, the energy system reacts through changes in the fuel mix as
well as in terms of improving energy intensity. Table 1.3-1 illustrates the projected
evolution of EU-25 primary energy needs under the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices”
case assumptions. A slowdown of primary energy growth in the EU-25 energy system
compared to the Baseline scenario is projected to occur, but this is rather limited over the
projection period (reaching up to -1.7% from Baseline levels in 2030).
6
Aggregate results by group of countries (EU-25, EU-15, NMS, EU-27, EU28 and Europe-30) can be found in
Appendix 1.
17
Table 1.3-1: Primary Energy Demand in EU-25 in the “Medium gas and soaring oil
prices” case
Mtoe
Solid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewable En. Sources
Total
EU-15
NMS
Mt CO2 emitted
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.
2000
306.5
634.7
376.3
237.7
96.5
1653.8
1456.9
196.9
3674.1
3127.0
547.1
2010
288.7
636.4
473.6
248.8
146.6
1796.3
1573.2
223.1
3822.8
3239.9
582.9
% change from baseline
2020
267.5
618.4
533.2
229.7
207.1
1858.0
1600.5
257.5
3824.7
3212.6
612.1
2030
285.8
590.0
510.1
223.3
252.5
1864.0
1581.3
282.6
3761.3
3146.2
615.1
2010
0.7
-4.8
2.5
0.0
2.0
-0.9
-0.9
-1.1
-1.5
-1.5
-1.4
2020
3.1
-7.7
0.7
0.5
6.0
-1.5
-1.4
-1.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.5
The most important changes in the primary energy balance occur in the fuel mix.
Demand for liquid fuels exhibits the strongest decline from Baseline levels (-4.8% in
2010, -7.9% in 2030). In 2010 primary energy demand for all other energy forms is
projected to grow on top of Baseline levels with natural gas consumption increasing the
most (+2.5% from Baseline levels) followed by renewable energy forms and solid fuels
(+2.0% and +0.7% from Baseline levels in 2010, respectively), whereas demand for
nuclear energy remains unchanged from Baseline levels. This rather surprising result for
natural gas is explained by the fact that in 2010 the growth of natural gas prices on top of
Baseline levels is less pronounced than that of oil and coal prices, and, thus, in relative
terms, the use of natural gas becomes a more cost effective option than in the Baseline
scenario (in the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case the oil to gas price ratio in
2010 reaches 1.79 from 1.32 in the Baseline scenario and the coal to gas price ratio 0.39
from 0.37 in the Baseline). On the other hand, the less pronounced growth in the use of
renewables compared with gas indicates that the impact of the growth on top of Baseline
levels for natural gas prices is less pronounced than the additional costs involved for the
further exploitation of renewable options in the absence of additional supporting policies
for renewables.
This is not the case beyond 2010 as the further growth of fossil fuel prices leads to a
strong increase in the use of renewable energy forms (+6.0% from Baseline levels in
2020, +9.4% in 2030). Nuclear energy is also projected to become a more competitive
option in the long run reaching at +5.9% from Baseline levels in 2030. It is only then that
both demand for solid fuels and natural gas decline from Baseline levels (-2.5% and 1.5% respectively in 2030) following a growth on top of Baseline levels in 2020 (+3.1%
and +0.7% respectively).
Changes in the fuel mix result in an increasing contribution of carbon free energy forms
in the EU-25 energy system. Their share reaches 22.0% in 2010 (+0.3 percentage points
from Baseline levels) further rising to 25.5% in 2030 (+2.2 percentage points from
Baseline levels). Renewable energy forms account for 8.2% of primary energy needs in
2010 and 13.5% in 2030 (+0.2 and +1.4 percentage points, respectively, from Baseline
levels). High fossil fuel prices facilitate the penetration of renewables, but their
contribution towards achieving renewables targets, such as the 12% share in gross energy
consumption for 2010, remains rather small.
The shares of natural gas and solid fuels are also projected to exhibit a growth on top of
Baseline levels in the short term (+0.9 and +0.2 percentage points respectively in 2010)
and reach similar to the Baseline levels in the long run (+0.0 and -0.1 percentage points
respectively in 2030). Liquid fuels are projected to continuously lose market share
accounting for 35.4% of primary energy needs in 2010 and 31.7% in 2030 (from 36.9%
in 2010 and 33.8% in 2030 under Baseline assumptions).
18
2030
-2.5
-7.9
-1.5
5.9
9.4
-1.7
-1.7
-1.4
-4.9
-5.0
-4.5
As a result of these changes in the fuel mix, the carbon intensity of the EU-25 energy
system improves by 0.6% from Baseline levels in 2010, by 1.2% in 2020 and 3.3% in
2030. This, in combination to the projected energy intensity gains (equivalent to the
decline in primary energy needs as economic growth in the EU-25 is assumed to remain
unaffected by rising energy import prices) leads to a decline of CO2 emissions which are
projected to reach -1.5% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -4.9% in 2030. In comparison
to 1990 levels, CO2 emissions are projected to increase by +1.2% in 2010 and +1.3% in
2020, declining thereafter to reach -0.4% from 1990 levels in 2030.
Table 1.3-2: Import dependency in EU-25 in the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices”
case
%
Solid fuels
Liquid fuels
Natural gas
Total
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.
2000
30.8
76.4
49.6
47.2
49.5
30.1
2010
46.3
80.4
62.5
53.2
54.6
43.2
2020
48.7
88.5
80.9
60.5
62.2
50.0
2030
57.8
90.5
83.0
61.2
63.0
50.8
percentage points
difference from baseline
2010
2020
2030
0.1
-0.8
-1.2
-3.3
-4.2
-3.2
-0.3
-0.6
-1.5
-1.8
-3.0
-3.7
-2.0
-3.2
-3.8
-0.9
-2.0
-2.9
Import dependency in the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case is projected to
exhibit a significant decrease from Baseline levels (see Table 1.3-2) being limited to
53.2% in 2010 (from 55.0% in the Baseline scenario) and 61.2% in 2030 (-3.7 percentage
points from Baseline levels). Changes in the fuel mix in combination to the higher
exploitation of indigenous fossil fuel resources (becoming a more cost effective option in
the presence of higher energy import prices) are the key drivers for this improvement.
1.3.2.2. Final energy demand
Higher energy import prices lead to a decline of energy requirements in the demand side,
ranging from -0.9% from Baseline levels in 2010 up to -2.1% in 2030 (see Table 1.3-3).
In the long run this decline is higher than the corresponding decline in primary energy
needs reflecting the structural and behavioural changes that take place in an environment
of high prices but also the changes in the fuel mix and the adoption of more efficient
equipment occurring in the demand side.
Table 1.3-3: Final Energy Demand and CO2 emission by Sector in EU-25 in the
“Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case
Mtoe
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transports
Total
EU-15
NMS
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transports
Total
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.
% change from baseline
2000
330.1
273.3
159.0
333.0
1095.4
970.7
124.7
2010
2020
355.4
379.8
309.2
332.7
186.6
207.7
375.7
396.1
1226.9
1316.2
1077.0
1135.7
150.0
180.5
Mt CO2 emissions
2030
387.2
342.6
219.2
392.5
1341.5
1139.4
202.1
2010
2020
2030
-0.3
-0.7
-1.1
-0.9
-1.8
-2.5
-1.0
-2.0
-2.7
-1.4
-2.3
-2.4
-0.9
-1.7
-2.1
-0.9
-1.7
-2.1
-0.9
-1.6
-2.2
% change from baseline
2000
567.7
452.1
244.6
969.9
2234.3
1985.3
249.0
2010
565.7
470.2
255.4
1057.1
2348.4
2071.8
276.6
2030
544.2
455.3
264.1
1041.6
2305.3
1982.0
323.2
2010
-2.0
-2.6
-2.4
-1.6
-2.0
-2.0
-1.8
2020
577.4
471.7
263.8
1075.0
2387.9
2079.9
308.1
2020
-3.0
-4.7
-4.4
-3.6
-3.8
-3.8
-3.6
2030
-4.5
-6.5
-6.3
-4.7
-5.2
-5.1
-5.6
19
Industry exhibits only a small reaction to price increases whereas the tertiary, residential
and transport sectors are more responsive to price changes.
Because of the relatively low taxation of energy products for industrial uses, one would
expect that this sector would be the most responsive to the price shock as it experiences
the sharpest increase in energy prices. However, this sector is also characterised by
limited flexibility regarding both short-term structural change and further substitution
among fuels above that projected in the Baseline projections. As a result energy use in
industry exhibits only a limited decline from Baseline levels over the projection period.
However, the sector undergoes some additional changes in the fuel mix towards the use
of natural gas, electricity and co-generated steam as well as biomass and waste in
industrial boilers, occurring to the detriment of liquid fuels. These shifts result in CO2
emissions reduction well above the corresponding decline in energy requirements, -2.0%
from Baseline levels in 2010 and -4.5% in 2030.
The tertiary and residential sectors are projected to be the most responsive to higher
energy import prices in the long run. Besides energy intensity gains achieved through the
adoption of more efficient technologies, higher fuel prices lead to a slowdown in the pace
with which the energy consumers shift towards higher comfort standards. As a result
energy demand in the tertiary sector falls by 2.7% from Baseline levels in 2030 with the
corresponding decrease in residential energy demand reaching 2.5%. Furthermore, both
sectors undergo significant changes in the fuel mix which in turn result in even more
pronounced CO2 emission reductions in 2030 (-6.3% from Baseline levels in the tertiary
sector, -6.5% in the residential sector).
Energy consumers in the transport sector also respond to higher oil prices mainly through
lowering their transport activity and shifts towards less energy intensive transport modes.
These changes take place despite the fact that the high taxes on transport fuels greatly
dampen the impact of further changes in international fuel prices. As a result energy
demand in the transport sector in the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case is
projected to be -1.4% lower from Baseline levels in 2010 and -2.4% lower in 2030.
Furthermore, higher oil prices lead to some acceleration in the share of biofuels in
gasoline and diesel consumption. The share of biofuels is projected to reach 4.1% in
2010 (compared to 3.9% under Baseline assumptions), 8.3% in 2020 (6.9% in Baseline)
and 10.7% in 2030 (8.3% in Baseline). The accelerated penetration of biofuels in
transport impacts on the evolution of CO2 emissions in the sector, which are projected to
decrease at rates well above those of energy demand over the projection period (reaching
-4.7% from Baseline levels in 2030).
20
Figure 1.3-1: Changes in final energy demand by fuel in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline
in Mtoe) in the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case
20.0
10.0
9.9
7.5
6.8
2.3
5.6
0.5 0.8 0.4
0.4
0.0
0.5 0.5 1.1 0.8
-0.9
-10.0
-20.0
-22.0
-30.0
-40.0
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Heat
Solids
Other
Biomass & Waste
-36.8
-40.8
-50.0
2010
2020
2030
Source: PRIMES.
In terms of fuel use, the most pronounced changes, from Baseline levels, in the demand
side occur for liquid fuels, natural gas and biomass and waste (see Figure 1.3-1). Demand
for liquid fuels declines at rates well above those for total energy requirements in the
demand side both in absolute terms (-22.0 Mtoe for oil compared to -11.1 Mtoe for total
final energy in 2010, -40.8 Mtoe compared to -28.9 Mtoe in 2030) and in percentage
terms (-4.2% and -8.0% for liquid fuels in 2010 and 2030 respectively, compared to 0.9% and -2.1% for total final energy demand). Taking into account the increase in the
share of biofuels in gasoline and diesel oil used in the transport sector, the impact on
mineral oil becomes even more pronounced reaching up to -10% from Baseline levels in
2030.
The use of all other energy forms in the demand side is projected to grow on top of
Baseline levels over the projection period, with the only exception concerning demand
for solid fuels in 2030 (-2.8% from Baseline levels). The most pronounced growth in
absolute terms in 2010 and 2020 is projected for natural gas demand (+2.7% and +2.2%
from Baseline levels, respectively), a result explained by the fact that, under the
“Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case assumptions for international fuel prices,
natural gas becomes a more cost effective option both against oil and coal. This is also
the case for 2030, however, as natural gas prices further grow on top of Baseline levels
the demand side shifts towards the use of other energy forms limiting the additional
contribution of natural gas in satisfying final energy requirements to just +0.5 Mtoe (or
+0.1% from Baseline levels). Biomass and waste continuously grow on top of Baseline
levels (+4.2% in 2010; +14.7% in 2030) whereas solar energy also makes some
significant inroads (+4.5% from Baseline levels in 2010; +29.6% in 2030). Demand for
electricity and distributed steam exhibits only a limited growth from Baseline levels
(+0.1% and +0.4% respectively in 2010; +0.1% and +1.1% respectively in 2030) despite
the fact that structural changes in power generation lead to a partial absorption of
additional costs imposed on the energy system as a result of higher fuel prices and,
consequently, a less pronounced increase in the price of electricity than that for oil and
gas. Therefore, the shares for both electricity and distributed steam in final energy
21
demand increase from Baseline levels, which is also due to the decline of final energy
requirements from Baseline levels.
In 2030, electricity accounts for 24.9% of energy requirements in the demand side (+0.5
percentage points from Baseline levels), and distributed steam for 7.2% from 7.0% in the
Baseline scenario. The share of natural gas also exhibits a limited growth from Baseline
levels in the long run (reaching 24.0% in 2030 from 23.5% in the Baseline scenario). The
most pronounced increase is projected for the market share of biomass and waste
(accounting for 5.8% of energy requirements in the demand side in 2030, +0.8
percentage points from Baseline levels). As already discussed, these changes take place
to the detriment of liquid fuels, the share of which declines by 2.2 percentage points from
Baseline levels down to 35.1% in 2030.
1.3.2.3. Electricity and steam generation
Higher energy import prices have only a limited impact on overall electricity generation
(less than 0.1% higher from Baseline levels in 2010 and 2020, less than 0.1% lower in
2030). However, the different international prices profiles lead to substantial changes in
producers’ investment decisions as regards the expansion and/or replacement of existing
power generation capacity.
Figure 1.3-2: Changes in electricity generation by energy form in EU-25 (diff. from
Baseline in TWh) in the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case
2010
2020
2030
60
48
40
33
24
20
25
15
4
2
0
44
-2
2
1
-1
4
1
2
-2
-2
-20
-21
-40
-60
-80
-100
Solids
Gas
Nuclear
Wind energy
Biomass-waste
Hydro and other renewables
Oil
Total
-74
-97
-120
Source: PRIMES.
As can be seen in Figure 1.3-2, only limited changes are projected to occur in electricity
generation in 2010. The gap due to additional electricity generation (+2 TWh from
Baseline levels) and the decline in generation using liquid fuels (-2 TWh or -1.2% from
Baseline levels), natural gas (-2 TWh or -0.3%) and biomass/waste (-1 TWh or -1.4%) is
closed by increased generation from solid fuels (+2 TWh or +0.2%) and other renewable
energy forms (+4 TWh or +2.2% for wind energy, +1 TWh or +0.2% for hydro).
The impact of high energy import prices on the structure of electricity and steam
generation becomes more pronounced in the long run. In 2020, electricity generation
from natural gas declines by -6.5% from Baseline levels, with the corresponding decline
in 2030 reaching -9.5%. The gap in 2020 is partly covered by solid fuels, (+3.7% higher
22
-2
electricity generation from Baseline levels), involving a higher exploitation of indigenous
coal and lignite resources. Power generation from renewables grow significantly from
Baseline levels in 2020 (+4.2% in total, +7.8% for wind energy and +6.0% for
biomass/waste), whereas the growth in electricity generation from nuclear power plants
is limited to 0.5% from Baseline levels in 2020. In 2030, the cost effectiveness advantage
of nuclear energy due to higher fossil fuel costs in power generation becomes more
pronounced with electricity generation from nuclear increasing by 5.9% from Baseline
levels. Renewable energy options are also more deployed in a high fossil fuel price
environment (+5.7% from Baseline levels for total electricity from renewables, +10.0%
for wind energy, +7.0% for biomass/waste). On the contrary, the increasing cost
effectiveness of nuclear has a negative effect on electricity generation from solid fuels,
which is projected to produce -1.7% less electricity compared to the Baseline in 2030.
The changes in the sector lead to an increased share of renewable energy forms
(including waste) in electricity generation, especially in the long run. The renewables
share reaches 18.2% in 2010 (+0.1 percentage points above Baseline levels) and rises
further to 29.2% in 2030 (compared to 27.6% in the Baseline scenario). Nuclear energy
accounts for 19.8% of electricity generation in 2030 (+1.1 percentage points above
Baseline levels). Thus, the market share of electricity generation from fossil fuels in the
“Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case declines by -0.1 percentage points below
Baseline levels in 2010 and -2.7 percentage points in 2030. The most pronounced impact
is projected for natural gas (share declining by -0.1 percentage points from Baseline
levels in 2010 and -2.2 percentage points in 2030), with the corresponding decline for
solids reaching -0.5 percentage points in 2030 (from an increase of +0.8 percentage
points compared to Baseline levels in 2020).
Table 1.3-4: Installed capacity by plant type in EU-25 in the “Medium gas and
soaring oil prices” case
change from baseline
(in GW)
GW installed
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy (excl. biomass-waste)
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Lakes
Run of river
Wind power
Wind on-shore
Wind off-shore
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
Solids fired
Oil fired
Gas fired
Natural gas
Derived gasses
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel cells
Geothermal heat
Total
EU-15
NMS
of which CHP
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.
2000
141.1
110.1
97.2
52.2
45.0
12.8
12.8
0.0
0.2
0.0
410.5
188.9
74.3
131.9
119.2
12.7
14.5
0.0
1.0
661.7
588.1
73.7
113.0
88.5
24.4
2010
136.4
185.9
104.0
56.1
47.9
80.0
70.5
9.5
1.7
0.2
494.7
158.0
69.1
245.2
233.4
11.8
21.1
0.0
1.4
817.1
730.0
87.1
154.9
128.0
26.9
2020
117.5
251.4
108.8
58.0
50.8
137.4
111.5
25.8
4.8
0.4
588.0
163.5
50.2
313.6
304.1
9.5
59.2
0.0
1.5
956.9
840.1
116.8
212.7
179.0
33.7
2030
107.5
330.4
112.7
59.0
53.7
206.9
158.5
48.4
10.4
0.4
688.1
213.3
36.2
349.3
341.0
8.3
87.5
0.0
1.7
1125.9
958.4
167.5
249.1
195.8
53.2
2010
0.0
1.7
0.1
0.1
0.0
1.6
0.4
1.2
0.0
0.0
4.6
1.4
3.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
6.3
5.6
0.8
4.0
3.3
0.7
2020
0.5
9.9
0.1
0.1
0.0
9.7
2.6
7.2
0.0
0.0
3.5
6.7
2.3
-7.6
-7.6
0.0
2.1
0.0
0.0
13.9
11.6
2.3
3.7
3.5
0.2
2030
6.3
24.4
0.5
0.4
0.0
24.0
19.8
4.2
0.0
0.0
-1.5
2.1
1.3
-10.8
-11.0
0.2
5.9
0.0
0.0
29.2
28.4
0.8
1.1
1.8
-0.7
The above changes are also reflected in the investment decisions of power generators,
which are clearly altered by these different fuel prices. More specifically, given higher
23
gas prices, gas fired power plants lose much of their cost effectiveness, and are mainly
replaced by renewable technologies (see Table 1.3-4). The higher deployment of
renewables capacity and especially wind turbines (involving lower utilisation rates
compared with e.g. natural gas power plants) leads to an increase of total installed
capacity up to 1126 GW in 2030 (+29.2 GW or +2.7% from Baseline levels) compared to
a rather stable electricity production. Renewables capacity (including biomass-waste and
geothermal power plants) is projected to reach 420 GW in 2030 accounting for 37.3% of
total installed capacity (from 35.5% in the Baseline scenario). Nuclear capacity is also
projected to grow on top of Baseline levels in the long run (+6.3 GW or +6.2% from
Baseline levels in 2030) accounting for 9.5% of total installed capacity in 2030 from
9.2% in the Baseline. On the contrary, natural gas fired power plants capacity is projected
to grow at a slower pace than in the Baseline scenario to reach 341 GW in 2030 (-11.0
GW or -3.1% from Baseline levels).
The stronger penetration of renewable energy forms in the power generation sector partly
counterbalances the slower deployment of gas fired power plants with overall power
generation efficiency reaching rates slightly below those projected in the Baseline
scenario (48.5% compared to 48.6% in 2030). As regards thermal power plants
efficiency it is projected to reach 47.3% in 2030 compared to 47.5% in the Baseline
scenario. Total fuel input in power generation exhibits a limited decline from Baseline
levels ranging from -0.3% in 2010 to -0.4% in 2030 (see Table 1.3-5).
Table 1.3-5: Fuel input in the EU-25 power generation sector in the “Medium gas
and soaring oil prices” case
Mtoe
Solids
Oil products
Gas
Biomass-waste
Nuclear energy
Geothermal heat
Total
EU15
NMS
Mt CO2 emitted
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.
2000
214.5
41.9
105.5
21.2
237.7
2.9
623.7
542.2
81.5
1250.0
997.8
252.2
2010
216.5
30.0
151.5
28.6
248.8
3.7
679.1
585.9
93.2
1325.8
1054.1
271.7
% change from baseline
2020
206.5
22.2
171.7
56.0
229.7
4.7
690.7
583.6
107.1
1306.9
1032.6
274.2
2030
236.0
19.7
140.7
73.2
223.3
5.3
698.3
579.4
118.9
1341.1
1075.9
265.1
2010
0.7
-5.2
-0.9
-1.8
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
2020
4.0
-4.9
-6.0
4.4
0.5
1.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.4
-0.2
Transformation input of solids is higher than in the Baseline up to 2020, exhibiting a
decline from Baseline levels thereafter. The growth in gas fuels for power generation
exhibits a significant slowdown over the projection period, with consumption of natural
gas decreasing -9.4% from Baseline levels in 2030. Biomass and waste are projected to
be exploited at fairly high rates beyond 2010 with considerable increases over the
corresponding Baseline levels (up to +5.5% in 2030). Nuclear fuel also grows on top of
Baseline levels in the long run reaching +5.9% in 2030.
1.3.2.4. CO2 emissions and concluding remarks
In the short term, the shift towards carbon free energy forms for power generation more
than counterbalances the increase in electricity and steam demand and the higher
utilisation of solid fuels resulting in lower CO2 emissions from Baseline levels (-0.2% in
2010). However, in 2020 and as the changes in the fuel mix towards greater use of solid
fuels and less natural gas become increasingly important, CO2 emissions are projected to
reach levels slightly above those in the Baseline (+0.2% in 2020 in EU-25). In 2030,
lower electricity requirements in combination to the higher exploitation of nuclear energy
and the decline in the use of solid fuels lead to a decline of CO2 emissions by -3.7%
compared to the Baseline scenario with carbon intensity improvements reaching 4.2%
24
2030
-1.8
-0.5
-9.4
5.5
5.9
1.6
-0.4
-0.6
1.0
-3.7
-4.3
-1.0
from Baseline levels (compared to a 0.4% improvement in 2010 and unchanged carbon
intensity in 2020).
In the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case total CO2 emissions are projected to
grow at a slower pace than in the Baseline scenario. In 2010 they are 1.2% higher than
they had been in 1990 (compared to 2.8% higher in the Baseline) while in 2030 they are
projected to fall slightly below the 1990 levels (minus 0.4% compared to an increase by
+4.7% from 1990 levels in the Baseline scenario). As illustrated in Figure 1.3-3, the
demand side (both because of changes in the fuel mix and efficiency gains) is the main
driver for the projected reduction of CO2 emissions in comparison to the Baseline;
whereas the supply side contribution becomes increasingly important only in the long
run. In 2010 the demand side accounts for 81% of total CO2 emissions reduction
achieved from Baseline levels, a share increasing to 90% in 2020, but dropping thereafter
to 65% by 2030.
Figure 1.3-3: Changes in CO2 emissions in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in Mt CO2) in
the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0
-2
-11
-10
-27
-50
-48
-68
-68
-59
-71
-100
-93
-104
-103
-130
-126
-150
-200
Demand side
Supply side
Total
-194
-250
Source: PRIMES.
Concluding, an environment of high energy prices, as examined in the “Medium gas and
soaring oil prices” case, exerts only a small downward pressure on energy requirements
for the EU-25 energy system with more pronounced shifts occurring in the fuel mix,
mainly towards the higher exploitation of renewable energy options. The renewables
share in gross energy consumption increases somewhat compared with Baseline (+0.2
and +1.4 percentage points in 2010 and 2030 respectively). However, higher fossil fuel
prices alone deliver only a limited contribution towards achieving renewables targets,
such as the 12% share in gross energy consumption in 2010.
As a result of these changes in the fuel mix CO2 emissions grow at a slower pace than in
the Baseline scenario in the short to medium term (+1.2% from 1990 levels in 2010,
+1.3% in 2020), declining thereafter to reach at -0.4% from 1990 levels in 2030. Finally,
the higher deployment of renewables and nuclear in the long run, in combination to the
increasing cost effectiveness of exploiting indigenous fossil fuel resources, leads to an
improvement of import dependency for the EU-25 energy system, which is projected to
reach 61.2% in 2030(3.7 percentage points below Baseline levels).
25
“Soaring oil and gas prices” scenario results for EU-257
1.4.
The “Soaring oil and gas prices” case explores the possible evolution of the EU-25
energy system in the horizon to 2030 in an environment of particularly high energy
import prices for oil and gas with gas prices following those of oil. Gas prices in this
scenario exceed the gas prices in the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case by +6.5%
in 2010 and by +31.5% in 2030.
Table 1.4-1: Evolution of primary energy needs in the EU-25 energy system in the
“Soaring oil and gas prices” case
Mtoe
Solid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewable En. Sources
Total
EU-15
NMS
Mt CO2 emitted
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.
2000
306.5
634.7
376.3
237.7
96.5
1653.8
1456.9
196.9
3674.1
3127.0
547.1
2010
288.7
639.8
467.4
248.8
147.3
1794.2
1571.8
222.4
3818.9
3237.6
581.4
% change from baseline
2020
301.5
628.2
482.2
230.2
211.7
1855.9
1599.9
256.0
3870.2
3257.2
613.0
2030
326.4
598.2
449.2
224.6
259.7
1860.3
1578.8
281.5
3804.6
3184.3
620.2
2010
0.7
-4.3
1.1
0.0
2.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.4
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
2020
16.2
-6.2
-9.0
0.7
8.3
-1.6
-1.5
-2.1
-1.5
-1.3
-2.3
As was the case in the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case overall primary energy
needs in the EU-25 energy system exhibit only a limited decline from Baseline levels, 1.0% in 2010, -1.8% in 2030 (see Table 1.4-1). However, changes in the fuel mix follow
a different pattern with demand for solid fuels growing well above Baseline levels
beyond 2010 (+16.2% in 2020, +11.4% in 2030) while natural gas demand is faced with
strong downward pressures in the same period (-9.0% in 2020, -13.3% in 2030). Because
of the stronger increase of natural gas prices the impact of high oil prices becomes less
pronounced with oil requirements declining by up to -6.6% from Baseline levels in 2030
compared to -7.9% in the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case. Nuclear energy is
projected to increase slightly more than in the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case
reaching +6.5% from Baseline levels in 2030 (compared to +5.9% in the “Medium gas
and soaring oil prices” case), while the increase in primary energy requirements for
renewable energy forms reaches up to +12.5% from Baseline levels in 2030 (compared to
an increase by +9.4% in the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case) with more than
70% of incremental renewable energy requirements being satisfied by biomass/waste in
2030.
The projected growth on top of Baseline levels for renewable energy forms and nuclear
energy more than counterbalances the corresponding increase in solid fuels demand
occurring to the detriment of liquid fuels and natural gas with carbon intensity declining
by 0.6% from Baseline levels in 2010 and by 2.0% in 2030. Thus, CO2 emissions in the
“Soaring oil and gas prices” case are projected to decrease from Baseline levels by -1.6%
and -3.8% in 2010 and 2030 respectively. It is only in 2020 that the substantial growth
on top of Baseline levels for solid fuels demand results in a slight deterioration of carbon
intensity in comparison to the Baseline scenario with CO2 emissions declining
nevertheless by -1.5% from Baseline levels compared to a decline of primary energy
requirements by -1.6%.
7
Aggregate results by group of countries (EU-25, EU-15, NMS, EU-27, EU28 and Europe-30) can be found in
Appendix 2.
26
2030
11.4
-6.6
-13.3
6.5
12.5
-1.8
-1.8
-1.8
-3.8
-3.8
-3.7
In the demand side, energy requirements fall by -1.0% from Baseline levels in 2010,
reaching -2.9% in 2030. Demand for liquid fuels declines over the projection period (4.0% in 2010, -5.9% in 2020 and -6.9% from Baseline levels in 2030) whereas natural
gas consumption in the demand side exhibits a limited growth on top of Baseline levels
in 2010 (+1.2%), declining thereafter (-3.8% in 2020 and -6.8% in 2030). Renewables
are projected to grow well on top of Baseline levels (+5.2% in 2010 up to +17.5% in
2030) while energy demand for electricity, distributed steam and solid fuels is also
projected to be somewhat higher than in the Baseline scenario. Furthermore, the share of
biofuels in gasoline and diesel demand increases significantly from Baseline levels to
reach 4.1% in 2010 and 10.7% in 2030 (+0.2 and +2.5 percentage points respectively
from Baseline levels). As a combined effect of the above changes CO2 emissions in the
demand side are projected to decline from Baseline levels by -2.2% in 2010 and by 6.3% in 2030. The most pronounced carbon intensity improvement from Baseline levels
is projected for the residential and the tertiary sector (5.8% and 4.6% respectively from
Baseline levels in 2030). Carbon intensity improvements in industry reach +3.9% from
Baseline levels in 2030, while in the transport sector they amount to +2.3%.
In power generation, prevailing high gas prices strongly affect the cost effectiveness of
gas fired power plants with electricity generation from natural gas declining -30.3% from
Baseline levels in 2030 (-22.0% in 2020). With overall electricity requirements
remaining similar to those of the Baseline scenario, falling power generation from gas is
compensated by higher electricity generation from solid fuels (+21.7% from Baseline
levels in 2020, +13.2% in 2030), from renewables (+6.5% in 2020, +9.7% in 2030) and
nuclear energy (+0.7% in 2020, +6.5% in 2030).
Among the renewable energy forms the most pronounced growth above Baseline levels
in relative terms is projected for solar energy, exceeding Baseline levels in 2030 by
310% in power generation. Additional electricity production from solar energy accounts
for 22.7% of the incremental renewable electricity in 2030 with wind energy accounting
for 44.5% and electricity produced from biomass and waste for 32.6%.
The renewables share in electricity generation increases to 30.1% in 2030 (+2.5
percentage points from Baseline levels) while the share of nuclear energy is projected to
reach 19.8% in 2030 (compared to 18.7% in the Baseline). With the share of fossil fuels
in total electricity generation being limited to 50.0% in 2030 (from 53.7% in the Baseline
scenario), solid fuels are projected to increase their share up to 31% in 2030 (+3.5
percentage points compared to the Baseline) whereas electricity generation in gas fired
power plants is limited to 16.1% of total production in 2030 (from 23.2% in the
Baseline), a result clearly reflecting the strong impact that the high natural gas prices of
the “Soaring oil and gas prices” cases would have on the cost effectiveness of this type of
power plants. CO2 emissions in the power generation sector decline by -0.3% from
Baseline levels in 2010, increasing thereafter by +5.1% in 2020 and +0.9% in 2030 as the
higher exploitation of renewable energy forms and nuclear energy (in 2030) is not
sufficient to counterbalance the increased use of solid fuels.
Thus, the projected CO2 emissions reduction from Baseline levels in the “Soaring oil and
gas prices” case arises mainly from energy intensity improvements and changes in the
fuel mix occurring in the demand side (accounting for 82% of total CO2 emissions
reduction in 2010 and 101% in 2030) whereas the supply side has a negative contribution
to CO2 emissions reduction beyond 2010, i.e. changes in power generation put some
upward pressure on CO2 emissions..
Concluding, the high import energy prices assumed in the “Soaring oil and gas prices”
case lead to a limited reduction of energy requirements in the EU-25 energy system in
comparison to the Baseline scenario and a more favourable development for CO2
emissions (reaching +0.8% from 1990 levels in 2030 compared to +4.7% in the Baseline
scenario). The import dependency of the EU-25 energy system also improves reaching
27
59.7% in 2030 compared to 64.8% in the Baseline scenario. Similarly, the “Soaring oil
and gas prices” case produces somewhat higher renewables shares.
However, in comparison with the “Medium gas and soaring oil price” case, the linking of
gas to oil prices exhibits some disadvantages. In addition to the competitiveness
disadvantages of higher gas prices for the EU economy, such higher gas prices would
also lead to higher CO2 emission in the long term. Whereas CO2 emissions fall slightly
below the 1990 level in 2030 in the “Medium gas and soaring oil price” case, they stay
above the 1990 level in the entire projection period with soaring gas prices, i.e. when gas
and oil prices are coupled. It is far from clear whether the slightly higher renewables
share in the “Soaring oil and gas price case” in 2030 (14.0% in gross energy consumption
instead of 13.5% with medium gas prices) as well as the somewhat lower import
dependency (59.7% in 2030 instead of 61.2%) can outweigh these disadvantages.
28
Glossary
Carbon intensity: The amount of CO2 by weight emitted per unit of energy consumed
or produced (t of CO2/tonne of oil equivalent (toe) or MWh)
Clean coal units: A number of innovative, new technologies designed to use coal in a
more efficient and cost-effective manner while enhancing environmental protection.
Among the most promising technologies are fluidised-bed combustion (PFBC),
integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), coal liquefaction and coal gasification.
CO2 Emissions to GDP: The amount of CO2 by weight emitted per unit of GDP (carbon
intensity of GDP - t of CO2/MEuro'00).
Cogeneration thermal plant: A system using a common energy source to produce both
electricity and steam for other uses, resulting in increased fuel efficiency (see also: CHP).
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plant (CCGT): A technology which combines gas
turbines and steam turbines, connected to one or more electrical generators at the same
plant. The gas turbine (usually fuelled by natural gas or oil) produces mechanical power,
which drives the generator, and heat in the form of hot exhaust gases. These gases are fed
to a boiler, where steam is raised at pressure to drive a conventional steam turbine, which
is also connected to an electrical generator. This has the effect of producing additional
electricity from the same fuel compared to an open cycle turbine.
Combined Heat and Power: This means cogeneration of useful heat and power
(electricity) in a single process. In contrast to conventional power plants that convert only
a limited part of the primary energy into electricity with the remainder of this energy
being discharged as waste heat. CHP makes use of large parts of this energy for e.g.
industrial processes, district heating, and space heating. CHP therefore improves energy
efficiency (see also: cogeneration thermal plant).
Efficiency for thermal electricity production: A measure of the efficiency of
converting a fuel to electricity and useful heat; heat and electricity output divided by the
calorific value of input fuel times 100 (for expressing this ratio in percent).
Efficiency indicator in freight transport (activity related): Energy efficiency in freight
transport is computed on the basis of energy use per tonne-km. Given the existence of
inconsistencies between transport and energy statistics, absolute numbers (especially at
the level of individual Member States) might be misleading in some cases. For that
reason, the numbers given are only illustrative of the trends in certain cases.
Efficiency indicator in passenger transport (activity related): Energy efficiency in
passenger transport is computed on the basis of energy use per passenger-km travelled.
Issues related to consistency of transport and energy statistics also apply to passenger
transport (see also: Efficiency indicator in freight transport).
Energy branch consumption: Energy consumed in refineries, electricity and steam
generation and in other transformation processes; it does not include the energy input for
transformation as such.
Energy intensity: energy consumption/GDP or another indicator for economic activity
Energy intensive industries: Iron and steel, non-ferrous, chemicals, non-metallic
minerals, and paper and pulp industries.
Final energy demand: Energy finally consumed in the transport, industrial, household
and tertiary sectors with tertiary comprising services and agriculture. It excludes
deliveries to the energy transformation sector (e.g. power plants) and to the energy
branch. It includes electricity consumption in the above final demand sectors.
29
Freight transport activity: Expressed in tonne kilometres (1 Gtkm = 109 tkm); one tkm
= one tonne transported a distance of one km. It should be noted that inland navigation
includes both waterborne inland transport activity and domestic sea shipping. However,
international short sea shipping is not included in the above category as, according to
EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to
bunkers.
Fuel cells: A fuel cell is an electrochemical energy conversion device converting
hydrogen and oxygen into electricity and heat with the help of catalysts. The fuel cell
provides a direct current voltage that can be used to power various electrical devices
including motors and lights.
Fuel input to power generation: Fuel use in electricity, CHP plants and heat plants.
Gas: Includes natural gas, blast furnace gas, coke-oven gas and gasworks gas.
Generation capacity: The maximum rated output of a generator, prime mover, or other
electric power production equipment under specific conditions designated by the
manufacturer.
Geothermal plant: A plant in which the prime mover is a steam turbine. The turbine is
driven either by steam produced from hot water or by natural steam that derives its
energy from heat in rocks or fluids beneath the surface of the earth. The energy is
extracted by drilling and/or pumping.
Gross Inland Consumption: Quantity of energy consumed within the borders of a
country. It is calculated as primary production + recovered products + imports +/- stock
changes – exports – bunkers (i.e. quantities supplied to sea-going ships).
Gross Inland Consumption/GDP: Energy intensity indicator calculated as the ratio of
total energy consumption to GDP – (toe/MEuro'00).
Hydro power plant: A plant producing energy with the use of moving water. For the
purposes of these energy balance projections, hydro excludes pumped storage plants that
generate electricity during peak load periods by using water previously pumped into an
elevated storage reservoir during off-peak periods when excess generating capacity is
available.
Non fossil fuels: Nuclear and renewable energy sources.
Non-energy uses: Non-energy consumption of energy carriers in petrochemicals and
other sectors, such as chemical feedstocks, lubricants and asphalt for road construction.
Nuclear power plant: A plant in which a nuclear fission chain reaction can be initiated,
controlled, and sustained at a specific rate. They include new nuclear designs (such as the
EPR as well as the AP1000 and AP600) with passive safety features (which reduce core
fusion probability from 10-5/year of existing nuclear plants to less than 5.10-7/year).
Oil: Includes refinery gas, liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene, gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil,
crude oil, naphtha and feedstocks.
Open cycle units: A turbine connected to an electrical generator. Less efficient than a
combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) because it does not recover and use the heat of the
exhaust gases. Open cycle units include polyvalent units, monovalent coal-lignite units,
monovalent oil-gas units and monovalent biomass-waste units.
Passenger transport activity: Expressed in passenger kilometres (1 Gpkm = 109 pkm);
one pkm relates to one person travelling a distance of one km. Passenger transport
activity includes energy consuming passenger transport on roads (public and private), by
rail, in airplanes and on ships as far as this takes place on rivers, canals, lakes and as
domestic sea shipping; international short sea shipping is not included as, according to
30
EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to
bunkers.
Primary production: Total indigenous production.
Renewable energy sources: Energy resources that are naturally replenishing but flowlimited. They are virtually inexhaustible in duration but limited in the amount of energy
that is available per unit of time. Renewable energy resources include: biomass, hydro,
wind, geothermal, solar, wave and tidal energy.
Solar power plant: A plant producing energy with the use of radiant energy from the
sun; includes solar thermal and photovoltaic (direct conversion of solar energy into
electricity) plants.
Solids: Include both primary products (hard coal and lignite) and derived fuels (patent
fuels, coke, tar, pitch and benzol).
Supercritical polyvalent units: A power plant for which the evaporator part of the
boiler operates at pressures above 22.1 MegaPascals (MPa). The cycle-medium in this
case is a single phase fluid with homogenous properties and thus there is no need to
separate steam from water in a drum, allowing for higher efficiency in power generation.
Thermal power plants: Type of electric generating station in which the source of energy
for the prime mover is heat.
Wind power plant: Typically a group of wind turbines interconnected to a common
utility system through a system of transformers, distribution lines, and (usually) one
substation. Operation, control, and maintenance functions are often centralised through a
network of computerised monitoring systems, supplemented by visual inspection.
31
32
APPENDIX 1: “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case results
Summary results by groups of countries (comparison to Baseline)
33
EU25: Medium gas and soaring oil prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
877543
351650
120396
139723
196920
68855
23391
42151
67
145
3101
898598
204139
163631
196665
237664
96499
28982
61865
1913
417
3322
862200
155151
134054
177628
248776
146591
29952
94762
16134
1551
4192
753400
137318
77157
102076
229716
207134
32245
138317
28281
3120
5170
743928
120701
60876
86487
223318
252545
33883
165619
41745
5477
5821
25784
624
16875
5450
0
2836
74
2354
348
61
-2
46879
6236
24199
3726
1077
11641
42
9125
2040
374
60
58825
504
17427
6681
12510
21702
2
16739
3803
1082
75
3.1
0.4
14.4
3.2
0.0
2.0
0.2
2.5
2.2
4.1
0.0
6.6
4.8
45.7
3.8
0.5
6.0
0.1
7.1
7.8
13.6
1.2
8.6
0.4
40.1
8.4
5.9
9.4
0.0
11.2
10.0
24.6
1.3
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
711300
75449
510017
479112
30905
123653
2181
801061
94307
518147
496826
21321
186463
2144
980467
133566
548731
512887
35844
295937
2233
1154578
130156
591197
561297
29900
431108
2116
1172079
165128
581177
557618
23559
423579
2195
-43808
1279
-50967
-48471
-2497
5884
-4
-77113
1762
-78668
-75378
-3290
-201
-5
-93488
-7792
-71272
-68632
-2640
-14418
-6
-4.3
1.0
-8.5
-8.6
-6.5
2.0
-0.2
-6.3
1.4
-11.7
-11.8
-9.9
0.0
-0.2
-7.4
-4.5
-10.9
-11.0
-10.1
-3.3
-0.3
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
1556194
431944
595746
260548
196920
2181
68855
1653841
306538
634711
376284
237664
2144
96499
1796260
288717
636378
473565
248776
2233
146591
1857997
267474
618374
533184
229716
2116
207134
1863954
285829
590001
510066
223318
2195
252545
-16273
1902
-32340
11333
0
-4
2836
-27339
7998
-51575
3525
1077
-5
11641
-31283
-7288
-50465
-7736
12510
-6
21702
-0.9
0.7
-4.8
2.5
0.0
-0.2
2.0
-1.5
3.1
-7.7
0.7
0.5
-0.2
6.0
-1.7
-2.5
-7.9
-1.5
5.9
-0.3
9.4
27.8
38.3
16.7
12.7
4.4
18.5
38.4
22.8
14.4
5.8
16.1
35.4
26.4
13.8
8.2
14.4
33.3
28.7
12.4
11.1
15.3
31.7
27.4
12.0
13.5
0.2
-1.5
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.6
-2.3
0.6
0.2
0.8
-0.1
-2.1
0.0
0.9
1.4
1.6
-4.0
3.4
0.9
2.9
4.6
-6.3
2.1
1.9
7.5
-0.8
-6.3
0.2
7.7
11.2
2455674
780056
272788
1402830
2900835
921193
359249
1620392
3484905
964265
537453
1983187
4007842
890384
708062
2409396
4365041
865580
887978
2611483
1720
0
4909
-3189
2067
4177
24211
-26321
-1558
48489
44254
-94301
0.0
0.0
0.9
-0.2
0.1
0.5
3.5
-1.1
0.0
5.9
5.2
-3.5
355362
246377
48954
47057
10201
2774
0
385987
214488
41870
105480
21211
2939
0
430310
216504
29989
151515
28618
3685
0
461015
206489
22160
171723
55970
4673
0
474970
235973
19699
140710
73243
5344
0
-1930
1555
-1645
-1311
-529
0
0
-1756
7988
-1151
-11008
2351
66
0
-15068
-4338
-95
-14538
3820
83
0
-0.4
0.7
-5.2
-0.9
-1.8
0.0
-0.4
4.0
-4.9
-6.0
4.4
1.4
-3.1
-1.8
-0.5
-9.4
5.5
1.6
797634
642275
2
31035
124322
796450
710448
637
17261
68104
778958
694214
17359
15338
52048
773710
679084
36183
13693
44750
750430
653464
45588
15027
36351
-33938
-34708
567
88
115
-50385
-54941
5179
-124
-499
-46634
-54639
9213
294
-1502
-4.2
-4.8
3.4
0.6
0.2
-6.1
-7.5
16.7
-0.9
-1.1
-5.9
-7.7
25.3
2.0
-4.0
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
73032
80377
79369
77728
74445
-2129
-3438
-3689
-2.6
-4.2
-4.7
Non-Energy Uses
94476
105950
106418
108383
108919
-1430
-2817
-3246
-1.3
-2.5
-2.9
1021913
1095359
1226925
1316223
1341508
-11081
-22281
-28945
-0.9
-1.7
-2.1
341087
216809
124278
261006
146622
273198
330062
211616
118446
273302
158975
333020
355408
219969
135439
309223
186560
375734
379782
226431
153351
332655
207698
396088
387228
221494
165734
342589
219215
392476
-1013
-791
-222
-2742
-1927
-5399
-2620
-1962
-659
-6086
-4158
-9417
-4338
-3438
-900
-8696
-6101
-9810
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-0.7
-0.9
-0.4
-1.8
-2.0
-2.3
-1.1
-1.5
-0.5
-2.5
-2.7
-2.4
123937
428121
200242
176468
63092
30053
56633
468312
251885
211352
68712
38465
45481
495363
286714
259692
80529
59146
39862
493114
316476
303405
88495
74871
33077
471079
321862
334496
96414
84580
280
-21979
7540
382
352
2344
442
-36782
6750
488
804
6017
-948
-40758
464
453
1089
10754
0.6
-4.2
2.7
0.1
0.4
4.1
1.1
-6.9
2.2
0.2
0.9
8.7
-2.8
-8.0
0.1
0.1
1.1
14.6
3776.1
1362.6
141.5
698.9
506.1
274.2
792.7
3674.1
1294.9
144.9
567.7
452.1
244.6
969.9
3822.8
1358.0
116.4
565.7
470.2
255.4
1057.1
3824.7
1334.7
102.0
577.4
471.7
263.8
1075.0
3761.3
1367.0
89.0
544.2
455.3
264.1
1041.6
-59.1
-3.9
-7.5
-11.3
-12.4
-6.4
-17.6
-103.9
1.5
-11.9
-17.8
-23.2
-12.0
-40.5
-193.7
-57.1
-10.6
-25.7
-31.4
-17.7
-51.3
-1.5
-0.3
-6.1
-2.0
-2.6
-2.4
-1.6
-2.6
0.1
-10.4
-3.0
-4.7
-4.4
-3.6
-4.9
-4.0
-10.6
-4.5
-6.5
-6.3
-4.7
100.0
97.3
101.2
101.3
99.6
-1.6
-2.8
-5.1
-1.5
-2.6
-4.9
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
(1)
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
34
EU25: Medium gas and soaring oil prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
440.788
7294.7
213.3
3.53
5571
2.43
8.57
517.7
44.7
452.915
8947.0
184.8
3.65
6405
2.22
8.11
410.7
47.2
464.054
10946.8
164.1
3.87
7510
2.13
8.24
349.2
53.2
469.270
13656.3
136.1
3.96
8541
2.06
8.15
280.1
60.5
469.365
16051.4
116.1
3.97
9300
2.02
8.01
234.3
61.2
0.000
0.0
-1.5
-0.04
4
-0.01
-0.13
-5.4
-1.8
0.000
0.0
-2.0
-0.06
4
-0.03
-0.22
-7.6
-3.0
0.000
0.0
-1.9
-0.07
-3
-0.07
-0.41
-12.1
-3.7
0.0
0.0
-0.9
-0.9
0.0
-0.6
-1.5
-1.5
-3.3
0.0
0.0
-1.5
-1.5
0.1
-1.2
-2.6
-2.6
-4.8
0.0
0.0
-1.7
-1.7
0.0
-3.3
-4.9
-4.9
-5.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
83.8
85.8
84.9
99.4
77.1
79.7
78.7
91.6
66.2
69.3
69.3
77.4
57.9
60.9
61.7
65.3
-0.2
-0.7
-0.8
-1.3
-0.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.8
-0.6
-1.5
-1.7
-1.6
-0.3
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-0.7
-1.8
-2.0
-2.3
-1.1
-2.5
-2.7
-2.4
0.41
2.22
2.05
1.94
1.87
2.90
0.30
2.04
1.72
1.65
1.54
2.91
0.26
1.91
1.59
1.52
1.37
2.81
0.23
1.81
1.52
1.42
1.27
2.71
0.22
1.72
1.41
1.33
1.20
2.65
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.03
-0.04
-0.01
-0.06
-0.05
-0.06
-0.05
-0.06
-0.4
-1.1
-1.7
-1.7
-1.4
-0.2
0.0
-2.1
-2.3
-2.9
-2.4
-1.3
-4.2
-3.1
-3.4
-4.1
-3.7
-2.3
661750
141082
97168
12785
176
410539
112958
188879
131875
74302
14462
0
1022
816818
136430
103997
80003
1658
494730
154884
157968
245205
69088
21113
0
1356
956490
117477
108767
137363
4850
588033
212666
163462
313627
50222
59187
0
1536
1125484
107488
112678
206894
10364
688060
249066
213323
349314
36218
87537
0
1668
6311
0
63
1612
0
4636
4014
1431
-234
3039
399
0
0
13909
541
150
9740
0
3479
3704
6656
-7581
2291
2093
0
19
29192
6271
477
23963
0
-1520
1067
2087
-10820
1252
5936
0
25
0.8
0.0
0.1
2.1
0.0
0.9
2.7
0.9
-0.1
4.6
1.9
1.5
0.5
0.1
7.6
0.0
0.6
1.8
4.2
-2.4
4.8
3.7
2.7
6.2
0.4
13.1
0.0
-0.2
0.4
1.0
-3.0
3.6
7.3
0.0
1.3
1.5
36.1
50.0
14.5
46.5
31.8
14.7
39.6
48.7
17.9
45.8
27.7
18.2
44.9
47.8
22.0
46.6
22.2
24.4
47.3
44.3
23.8
49.0
19.8
29.2
0.1
-0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.3
-0.7
0.1
1.1
0.1
1.0
-0.2
-1.2
-0.4
2.7
1.1
1.6
0.3
-0.7
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.5
-0.7
-1.4
0.6
2.3
0.4
4.1
-0.4
-2.6
-1.8
5.9
6.0
5.8
5466.3
480.1
4253.1
402.7
296.9
33.6
6368.7
493.4
4940.7
449.3
445.6
39.7
7248.1
481.5
5638.0
484.4
598.4
45.8
7908.6
469.4
6157.8
513.4
718.0
50.0
-80.7
-1.7
-75.9
2.8
-6.0
0.0
-153.9
0.9
-142.7
5.8
-18.2
0.3
-221.6
2.6
-200.7
7.8
-31.8
0.5
-1.3
-0.3
-1.5
0.6
-1.3
0.0
-2.1
0.2
-2.5
1.2
-3.0
0.6
-2.7
0.6
-3.2
1.5
-4.2
1.0
Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4640.8
504.1
3529.3
411.9
166.3
29.2
Travel per person (km per capita)
10528
12069
13724
15446
16850
-173.9
-327.9
-472.0
-1.3
-2.1
-2.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
1753.9
1034.1
461.7
258.1
2131.5
1486.3
374.2
271.0
2547.4
1854.5
404.9
287.9
2980.8
2238.6
426.5
315.6
3331.8
2550.6
444.8
336.4
-34.8
-36.6
2.9
-1.0
-68.0
-73.1
5.1
0.0
-100.1
-106.8
5.8
0.8
-1.3
-1.9
0.7
-0.4
-2.2
-3.2
1.2
0.0
-2.9
-4.0
1.3
0.2
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
240
238
233
218
208
-3.2
-5.0
-6.2
-1.3
-2.2
-2.9
273198
7841
138202
82444
9066
28932
6714
333020
7018
158349
108068
8897
45320
5368
375734
6994
168073
133152
8333
53410
5771
396088
6282
166589
152286
6546
58198
6187
392476
5269
157668
160894
6066
56227
6353
-5399
-26
-2103
-2496
26
-764
-37
-9417
8
-2312
-4544
28
-2579
-18
-9810
-52
-2183
-3491
47
-4132
0
-1.4
-0.4
-1.2
-1.8
0.3
-1.4
-0.6
-2.3
0.1
-1.4
-2.9
0.4
-4.2
-0.3
-2.4
-1.0
-1.4
-2.1
0.8
-6.8
0.0
39.3
51.7
39.9
53.9
37.0
55.1
32.7
53.4
28.4
50.4
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.5
0.0
-0.4
0.1
-0.6
0.0
0.9
Source: PRIMES
35
EU15: Medium gas and soaring oil prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
707946
210737
117782
132975
181439
65014
22275
39426
67
145
3101
761643
100172
160552
190581
222846
87491
27627
54257
1912
381
3315
734858
68758
131586
171843
231522
131148
28488
81381
15723
1381
4176
624101
65615
74647
96537
207161
180141
30585
114817
26814
2777
5149
604154
59966
58614
81411
187221
216943
32014
135834
38478
4822
5795
25221
499
16769
5423
0
2529
71
2062
342
56
-2
43602
5619
23819
3502
0
10662
42
8593
1635
332
59
52421
1349
17016
6394
9634
18027
0
13427
3571
955
74
3.6
0.7
14.6
3.3
0.0
2.0
0.3
2.6
2.2
4.2
-0.1
7.5
9.4
46.9
3.8
0.0
6.3
0.1
8.1
6.5
13.6
1.2
9.5
2.3
40.9
8.5
5.4
9.1
0.0
11.0
10.2
24.7
1.3
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
643284
89663
458793
435365
23428
92495
2333
741591
110142
472543
455606
16937
155262
3644
883667
136384
495629
468543
27086
247834
3821
1025141
125092
531357
511307
20049
364922
3770
1027965
151980
515837
502783
13054
355192
4956
-40758
1303
-47131
-45289
-1842
5073
-3
-69759
1615
-72206
-69824
-2382
837
-4
-82878
-7973
-63581
-62118
-1462
-11319
-5
-4.4
1.0
-8.7
-8.8
-6.4
2.1
-0.1
-6.4
1.3
-12.0
-12.0
-10.6
0.2
-0.1
-7.5
-5.0
-11.0
-11.0
-10.1
-3.1
-0.1
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
1319965
303612
544159
223408
181439
2333
65014
1456936
215739
587926
339289
222846
3644
87491
1573206
205142
581896
419678
231522
3821
131148
1600455
190707
557215
461459
207161
3770
180141
1581333
211946
523665
436602
187221
4956
216943
-13839
1802
-28664
10496
0
-3
2529
-23343
7234
-45574
4339
0
-4
10662
-27167
-6625
-43274
-4925
9634
-5
18027
-0.9
0.9
-4.7
2.6
0.0
-0.1
2.0
-1.4
3.9
-7.6
0.9
0.0
-0.1
6.3
-1.7
-3.0
-7.6
-1.1
5.4
-0.1
9.1
23.0
41.2
16.9
13.7
4.9
14.8
40.4
23.3
15.3
6.0
13.0
37.0
26.7
14.7
8.3
11.9
34.8
28.8
12.9
11.3
13.4
33.1
27.6
11.8
13.7
0.2
-1.5
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.6
-2.3
0.7
0.2
0.8
-0.2
-2.1
0.2
0.8
1.4
1.8
-3.9
3.5
0.9
2.9
5.5
-6.2
2.4
1.5
7.8
-1.4
-6.0
0.6
7.2
10.9
2138940
720059
259810
1159070
2576502
863760
343478
1369264
3084261
897389
515623
1671249
3485715
802961
671532
2011223
3732714
725662
827588
2179464
1512
0
4807
-3296
973
0
19508
-18535
-2731
37343
41522
-81596
0.0
0.0
0.9
-0.2
0.0
0.0
3.0
-0.9
-0.1
5.4
5.3
-3.6
282186
184170
43718
41697
9827
2774
0
319336
158097
38588
99188
20524
2939
0
354351
157706
27577
139632
25752
3685
0
376441
149661
19945
154842
47320
4673
0
392160
178285
17599
128809
62123
5344
0
-1629
1350
-1123
-1303
-554
0
0
-783
6856
-1014
-9011
2320
66
0
-13402
-5902
126
-11026
3316
83
0
-0.5
0.9
-3.9
-0.9
-2.1
0.0
-0.2
4.8
-4.8
-5.5
5.2
1.4
-3.3
-3.2
0.7
-7.9
5.6
1.6
704402
595036
2
13085
96279
725664
665476
604
8717
50868
709259
646496
16054
6880
39829
697675
625505
32911
5454
33806
668669
595192
40853
5606
27018
-30689
-31590
529
144
228
-45177
-49682
4717
-8
-205
-41152
-48420
8333
-41
-1024
-4.1
-4.7
3.4
2.1
0.6
-6.1
-7.4
16.7
-0.1
-0.6
-5.8
-7.5
25.6
-0.7
-3.7
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
63555
67696
67130
64800
61240
-1715
-2721
-2968
-2.5
-4.0
-4.6
Non-Energy Uses
84387
95815
95817
95449
94100
-1245
-2347
-2682
-1.3
-2.4
-2.8
866453
970663
1076961
1135725
1139436
-9774
-19380
-24490
-0.9
-1.7
-2.1
272481
182306
90175
220020
121346
252606
284781
182967
101814
238404
137376
310102
305794
190780
115013
266736
160035
344396
320662
193529
127133
281753
173848
359461
322275
187245
135030
285698
179549
351913
-975
-734
-241
-2385
-1587
-4828
-2395
-1762
-634
-5244
-3369
-8372
-3857
-3008
-849
-7416
-4940
-8277
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-0.7
-0.9
-0.5
-1.8
-1.9
-2.3
-1.2
-1.6
-0.6
-2.5
-2.7
-2.3
79761
393325
173014
155929
36558
27865
35330
434547
226415
191711
50708
31953
28791
453285
251804
233479
60125
49478
25606
444527
272166
266920
65317
61189
21086
418225
272416
289407
69766
68537
166
-19852
7138
315
233
2225
292
-32729
6673
313
561
5510
-526
-35630
1316
310
775
9265
0.6
-4.2
2.9
0.1
0.4
4.7
1.2
-6.9
2.5
0.1
0.9
9.9
-2.4
-7.9
0.5
0.1
1.1
15.6
3068.4
1021.1
127.2
545.2
419.7
220.7
734.5
3127.0
1014.7
127.0
471.6
401.5
207.4
904.8
3239.9
1061.7
106.3
465.9
415.8
220.2
970.0
3212.6
1040.0
92.7
465.7
414.0
223.4
976.7
3146.2
1083.6
80.5
430.7
398.0
218.1
935.2
-51.0
-2.0
-6.4
-9.9
-11.5
-5.5
-15.8
-88.5
3.5
-10.0
-14.9
-20.8
-10.0
-36.3
-164.8
-49.0
-9.0
-20.5
-27.2
-14.5
-44.6
-1.5
-0.2
-5.6
-2.1
-2.7
-2.4
-1.6
-2.7
0.3
-9.7
-3.1
-4.8
-4.3
-3.6
-5.0
-4.3
-10.0
-4.5
-6.4
-6.2
-4.6
100.0
101.9
105.6
104.7
102.5
-1.7
-2.9
-5.4
-1.5
-2.7
-5.0
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
(1)
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
36
EU15: Medium gas and soaring oil prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
365.749
6981.9
189.1
3.61
5848
2.32
8.39
439.5
47.5
378.062
8572.2
170.0
3.85
6815
2.15
8.27
364.8
49.5
390.652
10391.5
151.4
4.03
7895
2.06
8.29
311.8
54.6
397.458
12835.7
124.7
4.03
8770
2.01
8.08
250.3
62.2
398.737
14948.8
105.8
3.97
9361
1.99
7.89
210.5
63.0
0.000
0.0
-1.3
-0.04
4
-0.01
-0.13
-4.9
-2.0
0.000
0.0
-1.8
-0.06
2
-0.03
-0.22
-6.9
-3.2
0.000
0.0
-1.8
-0.07
-7
-0.07
-0.41
-11.0
-3.8
0.0
0.0
-0.9
-0.9
0.0
-0.7
-1.5
-1.5
-3.5
0.0
0.0
-1.4
-1.4
0.0
-1.3
-2.7
-2.7
-4.9
0.0
0.0
-1.7
-1.7
-0.1
-3.3
-5.0
-5.0
-5.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
90.9
88.8
88.7
100.0
85.1
82.4
82.2
91.6
72.8
71.2
71.1
77.4
63.4
62.3
62.4
65.1
-0.3
-0.7
-0.8
-1.3
-0.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.8
-0.8
-1.6
-1.7
-1.5
-0.3
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-0.7
-1.8
-1.9
-2.3
-1.2
-2.5
-2.7
-2.3
0.39
2.22
2.00
1.91
1.82
2.91
0.27
2.05
1.66
1.68
1.51
2.92
0.24
1.92
1.52
1.56
1.38
2.82
0.21
1.83
1.45
1.47
1.28
2.72
0.21
1.74
1.34
1.39
1.21
2.66
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
-0.04
-0.04
-0.05
-0.03
-0.04
-0.01
-0.06
-0.05
-0.06
-0.05
-0.06
-0.2
-1.1
-1.8
-1.8
-1.5
-0.2
0.3
-2.1
-2.4
-3.0
-2.4
-1.3
-4.4
-3.1
-3.4
-4.0
-3.7
-2.3
588083
131758
90794
12769
176
352586
88543
144882
125804
67470
13407
0
1022
729726
127644
97168
77719
1645
425550
127986
117724
227879
61753
16837
0
1356
839656
106198
101417
129059
4712
498270
179004
122207
283508
44305
46713
0
1536
957963
89529
104865
189622
9827
564121
195822
154152
308495
31671
68135
0
1668
5557
0
55
1587
0
3915
3288
1203
-73
2773
12
0
0
11566
0
150
7728
0
3688
3455
5058
-6114
2577
2149
0
19
28410
4861
469
22812
0
267
1809
-33
-6885
2256
4906
0
25
0.8
0.0
0.1
2.1
0.0
0.9
2.6
1.0
0.0
4.7
0.1
1.4
0.0
0.1
6.4
0.0
0.7
2.0
4.3
-2.1
6.2
4.8
3.1
5.7
0.4
13.7
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.0
-2.2
7.7
7.8
0.0
1.3
1.5
36.9
50.0
13.4
49.4
33.5
15.9
40.6
48.2
16.8
48.6
29.1
19.5
45.9
47.4
20.6
48.8
23.0
25.7
47.8
44.5
21.3
50.4
19.4
31.0
0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.3
-0.6
0.1
0.9
0.0
1.0
-0.2
-1.4
-0.4
2.7
1.0
1.7
0.3
-0.7
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.5
-0.7
-1.3
0.7
2.0
0.0
3.8
-0.3
-3.0
-1.8
5.7
5.5
5.8
4997.7
401.8
3928.0
351.3
283.6
33.0
5760.3
420.9
4479.1
398.4
422.7
39.1
6510.4
414.7
5050.4
434.4
565.9
45.0
7036.3
406.6
5439.8
463.8
676.9
49.2
-71.8
-1.5
-66.8
2.2
-5.7
0.0
-135.5
0.7
-124.0
4.8
-17.2
0.3
-192.5
2.1
-171.9
6.7
-29.9
0.5
-1.2
-0.4
-1.5
0.6
-1.3
0.0
-2.0
0.2
-2.4
1.1
-3.0
0.6
-2.7
0.5
-3.1
1.5
-4.2
1.0
Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4130.1
369.0
3265.7
309.8
157.3
28.4
Travel per person (km per capita)
11292
13219
14745
16380
17646
-183.7
-340.9
-482.9
-1.2
-2.0
-2.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
1419.2
914.2
254.9
250.1
1825.6
1309.3
249.5
266.8
2114.0
1560.8
269.6
283.7
2436.5
1841.8
283.6
311.1
2696.7
2072.3
292.6
331.8
-29.1
-29.5
1.5
-1.0
-54.9
-57.9
3.0
0.0
-79.5
-84.2
3.9
0.8
-1.4
-1.9
0.5
-0.4
-2.2
-3.0
1.1
0.0
-2.9
-3.9
1.3
0.2
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
203
213
203
190
180
-2.8
-4.3
-5.3
-1.4
-2.2
-2.9
252606
6250
129911
75351
6970
27742
6383
310102
5860
146708
100615
7579
44025
5314
344396
5932
153336
120980
7131
51304
5714
359461
5359
150185
136559
5561
55671
6126
351913
4502
139038
143090
5167
53827
6289
-4828
-24
-1846
-2205
17
-733
-37
-8372
3
-1984
-3932
16
-2456
-18
-8277
-52
-1697
-2623
34
-3939
0
-1.4
-0.4
-1.2
-1.8
0.2
-1.4
-0.6
-2.3
0.0
-1.3
-2.8
0.3
-4.2
-0.3
-2.3
-1.1
-1.2
-1.8
0.7
-6.8
0.0
41.2
58.0
40.7
58.5
37.7
60.2
33.3
58.6
28.8
55.4
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.6
0.1
-0.4
0.0
-0.5
-0.1
1.2
Source: PRIMES
37
NMS: Medium gas and soaring oil prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
169598
140913
2614
6749
15481
3841
1116
2725
0
0
0
136955
103966
3079
6084
14818
9008
1355
7609
1
35
8
127342
86393
2467
5785
17254
15443
1464
13381
412
170
16
129298
71703
2510
5539
22554
26992
1660
23501
1467
343
22
139774
60735
2263
5077
36097
35602
1869
29785
3267
655
26
563
124
106
26
0
307
2
292
6
5
0
3277
616
380
224
1077
979
0
532
404
41
1
6404
-845
411
287
2876
3675
2
3312
233
127
1
0.4
0.1
4.5
0.5
0.0
2.0
0.2
2.2
1.6
3.1
1.6
2.6
0.9
17.8
4.2
5.0
3.8
0.0
2.3
38.1
13.7
3.6
4.8
-1.4
22.2
6.0
8.7
11.5
0.1
12.5
7.7
24.1
4.3
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
68016
-14214
51224
43747
7477
31158
-152
59470
-15836
45604
41220
4384
31202
-1500
96799
-2817
53102
44343
8759
48102
-1588
129437
5064
59841
49990
9851
66186
-1654
144114
13148
65340
54835
10505
68387
-2761
-3051
-24
-3837
-3182
-655
811
-1
-7354
147
-6462
-5554
-908
-1038
-1
-10610
182
-7692
-6514
-1178
-3099
-1
-3.1
0.9
-6.7
-6.7
-7.0
1.7
0.1
-5.4
3.0
-9.7
-10.0
-8.4
-1.5
0.1
-6.9
1.4
-10.5
-10.6
-10.1
-4.3
0.0
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
236229
128332
51587
37140
15481
-152
3841
196904
90799
46785
36994
14818
-1500
9008
223054
83576
54482
53887
17254
-1588
15443
257543
76767
61158
71725
22554
-1654
26992
282621
73883
66336
73463
36097
-2761
35602
-2433
100
-3676
837
0
-1
307
-3996
763
-6001
-814
1077
-1
979
-4116
-663
-7191
-2812
2876
-1
3675
-1.1
0.1
-6.3
1.6
0.0
0.1
2.0
-1.5
1.0
-8.9
-1.1
5.0
0.1
3.8
-1.4
-0.9
-9.8
-3.7
8.7
0.0
11.5
54.3
21.8
15.7
6.6
1.6
46.1
23.8
18.8
7.5
4.6
37.5
24.4
24.2
7.7
6.9
29.8
23.7
27.8
8.8
10.5
26.1
23.5
26.0
12.8
12.6
0.4
-1.4
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.7
-1.9
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.1
-2.2
-0.6
1.2
1.5
1.2
-5.3
2.7
1.1
3.1
2.6
-7.5
0.4
6.6
5.4
0.6
-8.5
-2.3
10.2
13.1
316734
59996
12978
243760
324333
57434
15771
251128
400644
66876
21830
311938
522126
87423
36530
398174
632327
139918
60389
432020
208
0
101
107
1093
4177
4703
-7787
1173
11146
2732
-12705
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.2
5.0
14.8
-1.9
0.2
8.7
4.7
-2.9
73176
62206
5236
5360
374
0
0
66652
56391
3281
6292
687
0
0
75960
58799
2412
11883
2866
0
0
84574
56827
2215
16881
8650
0
0
82810
57688
2101
11901
11120
0
0
-301
204
-522
-9
25
0
0
-973
1131
-138
-1998
31
0
0
-1666
1563
-221
-3512
504
0
0
-0.4
0.3
-17.8
-0.1
0.9
-1.1
2.0
-5.9
-10.6
0.4
-2.0
2.8
-9.5
-22.8
4.7
93232
47239
0
17949
28043
70786
44972
33
8544
17236
69699
47718
1305
8457
12218
76035
53579
3273
8240
10944
81761
58272
4734
9421
9334
-3249
-3117
38
-57
-113
-5208
-5259
462
-117
-294
-5482
-6219
880
335
-478
-4.5
-6.1
3.0
-0.7
-0.9
-6.4
-8.9
16.4
-1.4
-2.6
-6.3
-9.6
22.8
3.7
-4.9
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
9477
12681
12239
12928
13205
-414
-716
-722
-3.3
-5.3
-5.2
10089
10135
10600
12934
14819
-184
-470
-564
-1.7
-3.5
-3.7
155460
124696
149965
180499
202072
-1307
-2901
-4456
-0.9
-1.6
-2.2
68606
34503
34103
40986
25276
20592
45281
28649
16632
34898
21599
22917
49614
29189
20425
42488
26525
31338
59120
32902
26218
50902
33849
36628
64952
34249
30703
56891
39666
40563
-38
-56
19
-357
-340
-572
-225
-200
-25
-841
-789
-1045
-480
-430
-51
-1281
-1161
-1533
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.8
-1.3
-1.8
-0.4
-0.6
-0.1
-1.6
-2.3
-2.8
-0.7
-1.2
-0.2
-2.2
-2.8
-3.6
44176
34795
27229
20539
26534
2188
21303
33764
25471
19641
18005
6512
16691
42078
34910
26213
20404
9668
14256
48587
44310
36485
23178
13682
11991
52854
49446
45089
26648
16043
114
-2127
402
66
118
119
151
-4052
77
175
243
507
-421
-5128
-852
142
314
1489
0.7
-4.8
1.2
0.3
0.6
1.3
1.1
-7.7
0.2
0.5
1.1
3.8
-3.4
-8.8
-1.7
0.3
1.2
10.2
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
707.7
341.5
14.3
153.7
86.4
53.5
58.2
547.1
280.2
17.9
96.1
50.6
37.2
65.1
582.9
296.3
10.1
99.8
54.5
35.2
87.0
612.1
294.7
9.3
111.7
57.7
40.5
98.2
615.1
283.3
8.6
113.5
57.3
46.0
106.4
-8.1
-1.9
-1.2
-1.4
-0.9
-0.9
-1.8
-15.4
-2.0
-1.9
-2.9
-2.4
-2.1
-4.2
-28.9
-8.1
-1.6
-5.1
-4.2
-3.2
-6.6
-1.4
-0.6
-10.4
-1.3
-1.7
-2.6
-2.0
-2.5
-0.7
-16.9
-2.5
-4.0
-4.8
-4.1
-4.5
-2.8
-16.0
-4.3
-6.8
-6.6
-5.9
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
77.3
82.4
86.5
86.9
-1.1
-2.2
-4.1
-1.4
-2.5
-4.5
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
(1)
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
Source: PRIMES
38
NMS: Medium gas and soaring oil prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
75.039
312.8
755.2
3.15
4221
3.00
9.43
2262.2
28.7
74.853
374.8
525.3
2.63
4333
2.78
7.31
1459.6
30.1
73.401
555.3
401.7
3.04
5458
2.61
7.94
1049.7
43.2
71.813
820.6
313.8
3.59
7271
2.38
8.52
746.0
50.0
70.628
1102.7
256.3
4.00
8953
2.18
8.71
557.9
50.8
0.000
0.0
-4.4
-0.03
3
-0.01
-0.11
-14.6
-0.9
0.000
0.0
-4.9
-0.06
15
-0.02
-0.21
-18.8
-2.0
0.000
0.0
-3.7
-0.06
17
-0.07
-0.41
-26.2
-2.9
0.0
0.0
-1.1
-1.1
0.1
-0.3
-1.4
-1.4
-2.0
0.0
0.0
-1.5
-1.5
0.2
-0.9
-2.5
-2.5
-3.9
0.0
0.0
-1.4
-1.4
0.2
-3.1
-4.5
-4.5
-5.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
52.9
70.0
65.9
92.9
35.2
56.6
54.4
85.7
28.2
45.4
46.2
67.8
23.8
37.5
39.0
55.9
0.0
-0.5
-0.7
-1.6
-0.1
-0.8
-1.1
-1.9
-0.2
-0.8
-1.1
-2.1
-0.1
-0.8
-1.3
-1.8
-0.4
-1.6
-2.3
-2.8
-0.7
-2.2
-2.8
-3.6
0.50
2.26
2.24
2.11
2.12
2.83
0.46
2.00
2.12
1.45
1.72
2.84
0.40
1.84
2.01
1.28
1.33
2.78
0.33
1.71
1.89
1.13
1.20
2.68
0.27
1.60
1.75
1.01
1.16
2.62
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
-0.01
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
-0.04
-0.04
-0.03
-0.03
-0.04
-0.01
-0.06
-0.07
-0.05
-0.05
-0.06
-1.0
-0.9
-1.3
-0.8
-1.3
-0.3
-1.2
-2.1
-2.1
-2.4
-2.6
-1.4
-3.5
-3.5
-3.6
-4.7
-3.8
-2.3
73667
9324
6374
16
0
57953
24415
43996
6071
6832
1055
0
0
87092
8786
6828
2284
13
69180
26898
40244
17325
7335
4275
0
0
116833
11278
7350
8304
138
89763
33662
41255
30118
5916
12474
0
0
167521
17958
7814
17272
537
123939
53244
59171
40819
4546
19402
0
0
754
0
8
25
0
721
726
228
-161
266
387
0
0
2343
541
0
2012
0
-209
249
1598
-1467
-285
-56
0
0
783
1410
8
1151
0
-1787
-742
2121
-3935
-1004
1030
0
0
0.9
0.0
0.1
1.1
0.0
1.1
2.8
0.6
-0.9
3.8
9.9
2.0
5.0
0.0
32.0
0.0
-0.2
0.7
4.0
-4.6
-4.6
-0.4
0.5
8.5
0.1
7.1
0.0
-1.4
-1.4
3.7
-8.8
-18.1
5.6
32.4
50.3
23.5
23.3
17.7
5.6
35.3
52.5
26.5
24.8
16.7
8.1
40.5
51.0
31.1
32.2
16.7
15.4
44.9
43.1
39.1
40.6
22.1
18.5
0.2
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.3
-0.9
0.1
1.8
0.8
1.1
-0.4
-0.1
-0.8
2.8
1.7
1.1
0.4
-0.8
-0.8
0.2
-0.1
0.7
-0.8
-1.8
0.2
6.0
4.8
7.4
-0.9
-0.3
-2.0
7.4
8.5
6.1
468.6
78.3
325.1
51.4
13.3
0.6
608.4
72.4
461.6
50.8
22.9
0.7
737.8
66.8
587.7
50.0
32.5
0.7
872.4
62.8
718.0
49.6
41.1
0.8
-8.9
-0.2
-9.1
0.7
-0.3
0.0
-18.4
0.3
-18.7
1.0
-1.0
0.0
-29.0
0.5
-28.8
1.1
-1.8
0.0
-1.4
-0.2
-1.9
1.3
-1.5
0.7
-2.4
0.4
-3.1
2.1
-3.0
1.4
-3.2
0.8
-3.9
2.3
-4.2
2.0
Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
510.7
135.1
263.6
102.1
9.0
0.8
Travel per person (km per capita)
6805
6261
8289
10273
12352
-121.6
-256.3
-410.7
-1.4
-2.4
-3.2
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
334.6
119.9
206.8
7.9
305.9
177.1
124.7
4.2
433.3
293.8
135.3
4.3
544.3
396.9
142.9
4.5
635.1
478.3
152.2
4.6
-5.7
-7.1
1.4
0.0
-13.0
-15.2
2.1
0.0
-20.6
-22.6
2.0
0.0
-1.3
-2.4
1.0
-0.1
-2.3
-3.7
1.5
0.5
-3.1
-4.5
1.3
0.8
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
1070
816
780
663
576
-10.3
-15.9
-18.7
-1.3
-2.3
-3.1
20592
1591
8290
7093
2096
1190
331
22917
1159
11641
7453
1317
1294
54
31338
1062
14738
12172
1202
2107
56
36628
922
16404
15727
986
2527
61
40563
767
18631
17804
898
2399
64
-572
-2
-257
-291
9
-31
0
-1045
5
-328
-613
12
-123
0
-1533
0
-486
-868
13
-193
0
-1.8
-0.2
-1.7
-2.3
0.7
-1.5
-0.2
-2.8
0.6
-2.0
-3.7
1.3
-4.6
0.3
-3.6
0.0
-2.5
-4.6
1.4
-7.4
0.7
23.9
25.0
31.4
26.7
30.3
29.8
27.4
30.2
25.3
29.1
0.0
-0.3
0.1
-0.4
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
-0.9
0.3
-1.3
0.3
-1.3
Source: PRIMES
39
EU27: Medium gas and soaring oil prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
928078
364706
128402
162645
200702
71623
25013
43297
67
145
3101
937145
214324
170011
207644
243761
101405
30483
65264
1913
417
3329
904460
166502
140787
190373
253537
153261
31791
99452
16218
1576
4224
800453
149608
84907
113445
237162
215330
34419
143935
28441
3253
5282
794386
132896
68034
96676
234454
262327
36413
172294
41934
5724
5961
26272
626
17362
5468
0
2816
74
2299
383
62
-2
49384
6619
25735
3919
1471
11640
42
9113
2040
380
64
61740
1372
18379
6926
13146
21917
2
16928
3803
1103
80
3.0
0.4
14.1
3.0
0.0
1.9
0.2
2.4
2.4
4.1
0.0
6.6
4.6
43.5
3.6
0.6
5.7
0.1
6.8
7.7
13.2
1.2
8.4
1.0
37.0
7.7
5.9
9.1
0.0
10.9
10.0
23.9
1.4
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
749474
81418
529724
503451
26273
135011
3321
817569
98469
525771
507009
18762
191643
1687
1003244
139336
559037
526421
32616
303259
1612
1189526
138779
604308
578379
25930
444858
1580
1217095
176583
598061
579095
18966
440717
1735
-45301
1359
-53192
-51003
-2189
6537
-4
-82289
1240
-82134
-79210
-2924
-1389
-6
-98234
-8090
-74316
-72077
-2240
-15820
-7
-4.3
1.0
-8.7
-8.8
-6.3
2.2
-0.3
-6.5
0.9
-12.0
-12.0
-10.1
-0.3
-0.4
-7.5
-4.4
-11.1
-11.1
-10.6
-3.5
-0.4
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
1645474
450795
624250
294782
200702
3321
71623
1709133
320708
648970
392603
243761
1687
101405
1861178
305838
653298
493631
253537
1612
153261
1939841
288388
639078
558303
237162
1580
215330
1959238
309479
613852
537393
234454
1735
262327
-17274
1985
-34074
12005
0
-4
2816
-30005
7859
-53499
2530
1471
-6
11640
-33105
-6718
-52548
-8895
13146
-7
21917
-0.9
0.7
-5.0
2.5
0.0
-0.3
1.9
-1.5
2.8
-7.7
0.5
0.6
-0.4
5.7
-1.7
-2.1
-7.9
-1.6
5.9
-0.4
9.1
27.4
37.9
17.9
12.2
4.4
18.8
38.0
23.0
14.3
5.9
16.4
35.1
26.5
13.6
8.2
14.9
32.9
28.8
12.2
11.1
15.8
31.3
27.4
12.0
13.4
0.3
-1.5
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.6
-2.2
0.6
0.3
0.8
-0.1
-2.1
0.0
0.9
1.3
1.6
-4.1
3.4
0.9
2.8
4.4
-6.3
2.0
2.2
7.3
-0.5
-6.3
0.0
7.7
11.0
2561205
794718
291642
1474844
2993398
944823
376697
1671878
3603521
982718
559813
2060990
4165732
919246
735214
2511271
4564566
908741
919684
2736141
1355
0
5311
-3957
2023
5701
24211
-27889
149
50953
44254
-95059
0.0
0.0
1.0
-0.2
0.0
0.6
3.4
-1.1
0.0
5.9
5.1
-3.4
384763
261342
56108
54301
10237
2774
0
402753
225135
43691
109769
21219
2939
0
449895
229662
31485
156017
29047
3685
0
485252
223336
23074
177424
56746
4673
0
500148
255778
20006
144937
74082
5344
0
-2534
1569
-2294
-1279
-529
0
0
-2761
7789
-1166
-11800
2351
66
0
-15051
-3459
-130
-15365
3820
83
0
-0.6
0.7
-6.8
-0.8
-1.8
0.0
-0.6
3.6
-4.8
-6.2
4.3
1.4
-2.9
-1.3
-0.6
-9.6
5.4
1.6
840016
673728
2
38458
127829
818581
727122
637
19291
71530
803107
714482
17472
15560
55593
802337
703915
36548
13798
48076
783064
682097
46797
15089
39081
-35883
-36752
569
124
176
-52622
-57237
5224
-118
-491
-49074
-57131
9426
244
-1613
-4.3
-4.9
3.4
0.8
0.3
-6.2
-7.5
16.7
-0.8
-1.0
-5.9
-7.7
25.2
1.6
-4.0
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
78427
85834
86166
85375
82894
-2420
-3979
-4172
-2.7
-4.5
-4.8
Non-Energy Uses
98844
109187
108919
111256
112221
-1467
-2908
-3368
-1.3
-2.5
-2.9
1071205
1126314
1269583
1373825
1412548
-11577
-23363
-30717
-0.9
-1.7
-2.1
372041
239834
132206
267394
151680
280091
342654
220752
121902
283857
161545
338258
372996
232360
140635
320978
189924
385685
403696
242658
161038
347083
212483
410563
417247
241616
175631
358560
225438
411303
-1075
-842
-233
-2902
-1977
-5623
-2825
-2113
-712
-6366
-4262
-9910
-4689
-3716
-973
-9098
-6265
-10665
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-0.7
-0.9
-0.4
-1.8
-2.0
-2.4
-1.1
-1.5
-0.6
-2.5
-2.7
-2.5
128087
441141
219636
183815
67635
30892
58191
476894
259889
216343
73194
41802
47602
508767
298628
266971
84189
63426
42060
511071
333401
314005
93397
79892
35288
492583
342872
348502
102731
90572
283
-22702
7905
386
266
2285
450
-38212
7001
523
868
6007
-1202
-42544
-7
609
1498
10929
0.6
-4.3
2.7
0.1
0.3
3.7
1.1
-7.0
2.1
0.2
0.9
8.1
-3.3
-8.0
0.0
0.2
1.5
13.7
4009.9
1483.5
151.1
761.0
516.6
285.7
812.0
3800.2
1359.8
154.0
594.1
459.7
247.7
984.9
3980.3
1428.3
126.0
600.1
481.2
259.1
1085.7
4019.6
1420.5
107.9
620.0
485.9
268.9
1116.4
3980.6
1458.8
93.4
593.1
470.9
270.6
1093.9
-62.6
-5.8
-7.7
-11.6
-12.6
-6.6
-18.3
-112.1
-1.1
-13.8
-18.9
-23.9
-12.3
-42.1
-199.8
-55.7
-10.6
-28.4
-32.6
-18.2
-54.3
-1.5
-0.4
-5.8
-1.9
-2.6
-2.5
-1.7
-2.7
-0.1
-11.4
-3.0
-4.7
-4.4
-3.6
-4.8
-3.7
-10.2
-4.6
-6.5
-6.3
-4.7
100.0
94.8
99.3
100.2
99.3
-1.6
-2.8
-5.0
-1.5
-2.7
-4.8
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
(1)
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
40
EU27: Medium gas and soaring oil prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
472.712
7358.9
223.6
3.48
5418
2.44
8.48
544.9
44.6
483.520
9001.0
189.9
3.53
6191
2.22
7.86
422.2
46.7
492.838
11044.1
168.5
3.78
7312
2.14
8.08
360.4
52.6
496.408
13825.4
140.3
3.91
8392
2.07
8.10
290.7
59.8
494.784
16315.6
120.1
3.96
9225
2.03
8.05
244.0
60.5
0.000
0.0
-1.6
-0.04
3
-0.01
-0.13
-5.7
-1.8
0.000
0.0
-2.2
-0.06
4
-0.03
-0.23
-8.1
-3.1
0.000
0.0
-2.0
-0.07
0
-0.07
-0.40
-12.2
-3.7
0.0
0.0
-0.9
-0.9
0.0
-0.6
-1.5
-1.5
-3.4
0.0
0.0
-1.5
-1.5
0.0
-1.2
-2.7
-2.7
-4.9
0.0
0.0
-1.7
-1.7
0.0
-3.2
-4.8
-4.8
-5.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
80.2
87.2
83.5
98.7
74.2
80.6
77.4
91.8
64.3
70.3
68.3
78.0
56.6
61.8
61.0
66.2
-0.2
-0.7
-0.8
-1.3
-0.4
-1.3
-1.4
-1.9
-0.6
-1.6
-1.7
-1.7
-0.3
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-0.7
-1.8
-2.0
-2.4
-1.1
-2.5
-2.7
-2.5
0.42
2.22
2.05
1.93
1.88
2.90
0.30
2.03
1.73
1.62
1.53
2.91
0.27
1.91
1.61
1.50
1.36
2.81
0.23
1.81
1.54
1.40
1.27
2.72
0.22
1.72
1.42
1.31
1.20
2.66
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.03
-0.04
-0.01
-0.06
-0.05
-0.06
-0.05
-0.06
-0.5
-1.1
-1.6
-1.7
-1.5
-0.2
-0.2
-2.1
-2.3
-2.9
-2.5
-1.3
-3.9
-3.2
-3.5
-4.1
-3.7
-2.3
697174
145542
105185
12786
176
433485
120284
203503
135927
78309
14723
0
1022
856372
139130
112439
80705
1661
522437
168107
172169
254293
72925
21694
0
1356
1000433
121509
118031
138696
4865
617332
230848
180307
322783
51423
61283
0
1536
1186192
113025
122647
208467
10435
731618
275563
234280
368028
36555
91087
0
1668
7050
0
63
1899
0
5088
4465
1726
-76
3039
399
0
0
16959
741
150
9740
0
6328
5131
8272
-6915
2271
2680
0
19
29874
6588
477
23963
0
-1154
1387
2921
-11270
1224
5946
0
25
0.8
0.0
0.1
2.4
0.0
1.0
2.7
1.0
0.0
4.3
1.9
1.7
0.6
0.1
7.6
0.0
1.0
2.3
4.8
-2.1
4.6
4.6
2.6
6.2
0.4
13.0
0.0
-0.2
0.5
1.3
-3.0
3.5
7.0
0.0
1.3
1.5
35.7
49.0
14.9
46.4
31.6
14.9
39.4
48.0
18.7
45.5
27.3
18.2
44.5
47.5
23.0
46.3
22.1
24.2
47.0
43.9
25.3
48.6
19.9
28.7
0.1
-0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.2
-0.8
0.3
1.1
0.1
0.9
-0.2
-1.1
-0.4
2.6
1.1
1.5
0.4
-0.8
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.6
-0.5
-1.6
1.2
2.3
0.6
4.0
-0.4
-2.5
-1.7
5.7
5.9
5.6
5568.5
502.3
4316.4
417.8
298.4
33.6
6512.7
515.5
5047.9
460.5
449.0
39.8
7462.4
505.7
5804.9
499.5
606.4
45.8
8193.2
497.4
6376.9
533.7
735.0
50.1
-83.3
-1.4
-78.5
2.7
-6.1
0.0
-160.0
1.4
-148.9
5.8
-18.5
0.3
-231.8
3.3
-210.8
7.8
-32.5
0.5
-1.3
-0.3
-1.5
0.6
-1.3
0.0
-2.1
0.3
-2.5
1.2
-3.0
0.6
-2.8
0.7
-3.2
1.5
-4.2
1.0
Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4769.3
554.1
3567.1
450.2
168.5
29.4
Travel per person (km per capita)
10089
11517
13215
15033
16559
-169.0
-322.3
-468.4
-1.3
-2.1
-2.8
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
1861.5
1075.1
524.7
261.8
2177.1
1507.0
396.1
274.0
2648.2
1920.5
429.1
298.5
3129.6
2347.8
451.7
330.2
3537.9
2709.4
472.5
356.0
-36.6
-38.5
2.9
-1.1
-72.2
-77.6
5.3
0.0
-107.8
-114.9
6.2
0.8
-1.4
-2.0
0.7
-0.4
-2.3
-3.2
1.2
0.0
-3.0
-4.1
1.3
0.2
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
253
242
240
226
217
-3.3
-5.2
-6.6
-1.4
-2.3
-3.0
280091
8685
139578
85770
9564
29449
7044
338258
7514
160719
109568
9423
45553
5481
385685
7451
171745
137825
8635
53854
6176
410563
6721
171633
159610
6818
59063
6717
411303
5703
163861
170687
6349
57658
7045
-5623
-21
-2189
-2623
22
-773
-39
-9910
16
-2454
-4850
27
-2629
-19
-10665
-41
-2442
-3993
46
-4235
0
-1.4
-0.3
-1.3
-1.9
0.3
-1.4
-0.6
-2.4
0.2
-1.4
-2.9
0.4
-4.3
-0.3
-2.5
-0.7
-1.5
-2.3
0.7
-6.8
0.0
38.9
50.8
39.8
53.6
36.9
54.9
32.6
53.4
28.4
50.4
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.4
0.0
-0.4
0.1
-0.6
0.0
0.8
Source: PRIMES
41
EU28: Medium gas and soaring oil prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
961237
377116
132112
162820
200702
88487
27003
57710
67
173
3534
963855
227617
172757
208170
243761
111549
33138
71804
1916
679
4012
930633
177052
144031
191480
253537
164534
34938
105471
16579
2450
5095
836340
163326
88289
114800
237162
232762
37947
151333
29181
7871
6429
845077
147840
71772
98096
237922
289446
40563
181324
43450
16661
7448
26333
642
17362
5501
0
2829
74
2304
589
142
-279
50597
6684
25735
3919
1471
12788
42
9073
2040
1822
-189
66357
1428
18379
6926
13146
26477
2
17113
4019
5420
-78
2.9
0.4
13.7
3.0
0.0
1.7
0.2
2.2
3.7
6.1
-5.2
6.4
4.3
41.1
3.5
0.6
5.8
0.1
6.4
7.5
30.1
-2.9
8.5
1.0
34.4
7.6
5.8
10.1
0.0
10.4
10.2
48.2
-1.0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
776740
85626
550163
523502
26661
137693
3259
868442
107717
555056
528467
26589
203694
1975
1072571
152215
590588
555735
34852
328473
1295
1293080
155077
652192
622967
29225
484464
1347
1362520
197894
664137
640683
23453
499065
1423
-46563
1557
-54627
-52346
-2281
6511
-5
-86136
1704
-86070
-82893
-3177
-1764
-6
-106282
-7897
-80163
-77547
-2616
-18214
-8
-4.2
1.0
-8.5
-8.6
-6.1
2.0
-0.4
-6.2
1.1
-11.7
-11.7
-9.8
-0.4
-0.5
-7.2
-3.8
-10.8
-10.8
-10.0
-3.5
-0.5
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
1704962
467717
647159
297637
200702
3259
88487
1786487
343986
679975
405241
243761
1975
111549
1956190
329267
687604
519953
253537
1295
164534
2078664
318403
689725
599264
237162
1347
232762
2154608
345735
682920
597162
237922
1423
289446
-18464
2198
-35498
12012
0
-5
2829
-32616
8389
-57412
2155
1471
-6
12788
-36505
-6469
-58363
-11288
13146
-8
26477
-0.9
0.7
-4.9
2.4
0.0
-0.4
1.7
-1.5
2.7
-7.7
0.4
0.6
-0.5
5.8
-1.7
-1.8
-7.9
-1.9
5.8
-0.5
10.1
27.4
38.0
17.5
11.8
5.2
19.3
38.1
22.7
13.6
6.2
16.8
35.2
26.6
13.0
8.4
15.3
33.2
28.8
11.4
11.2
16.0
31.7
27.7
11.0
13.4
0.3
-1.5
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.6
-2.2
0.5
0.2
0.8
0.0
-2.1
-0.1
0.8
1.4
1.6
-4.0
3.3
0.9
2.7
4.3
-6.2
1.9
2.2
7.5
-0.2
-6.3
-0.2
7.6
11.9
2618738
794718
314786
1509233
3118298
944823
407604
1765871
3777094
982718
600608
2193768
4424906
919246
784893
2720767
4962866
922186
985744
3054936
1991
0
7706
-5715
2383
5701
24211
-27529
-1032
50953
46762
-98747
0.1
0.0
1.3
-0.3
0.1
0.6
3.2
-1.0
0.0
5.8
5.0
-3.1
393649
266482
57294
56793
10237
2842
0
424378
235098
46624
118348
21304
3004
0
477113
239792
33339
170560
29544
3878
0
524454
242416
24074
195176
57922
4866
0
552714
283794
20788
166777
75725
5630
0
-3045
1569
-2383
-1702
-529
0
0
-3077
7791
-1261
-12023
2351
66
0
-16187
-3213
-257
-16621
3820
83
0
-0.6
0.7
-6.7
-1.0
-1.8
0.0
-0.6
3.3
-5.0
-5.8
4.2
1.4
-2.8
-1.1
-1.2
-9.1
5.3
1.5
867592
696742
2
38458
132391
846345
750941
637
19291
75474
839045
747040
17565
15598
58842
853616
751885
36865
13930
50936
852175
747425
47901
15316
41533
-37205
-38095
572
125
192
-56284
-60919
5267
-112
-519
-54466
-62602
9605
254
-1723
-4.2
-4.9
3.4
0.8
0.3
-6.2
-7.5
16.7
-0.8
-1.0
-6.0
-7.7
25.1
1.7
-4.0
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
80396
88538
89046
89150
87647
-2519
-4164
-4443
-2.8
-4.5
-4.8
101612
112692
112243
115125
116632
-1533
-3025
-3496
-1.3
-2.6
-2.9
1109885
1180941
1342799
1485873
1575509
-12260
-25410
-33013
-0.9
-1.7
-2.1
384219
245670
138549
281949
154275
289441
363322
228215
135107
300854
166339
350426
400092
240625
159467
340152
198533
404022
444215
252968
191247
374766
226011
440881
478253
254780
223473
397444
244357
455454
-1155
-887
-268
-3165
-2074
-5866
-3097
-2237
-860
-7044
-4562
-10708
-5576
-3949
-1627
-10256
-5154
-12026
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-0.7
-0.9
-0.4
-1.8
-2.0
-2.4
-1.2
-1.5
-0.7
-2.5
-2.1
-2.6
136126
458929
220792
187680
67875
38483
68674
499706
264489
224587
74443
49041
59247
537760
311018
279318
84977
70479
51559
556988
357094
333628
94969
91633
42362
556817
380766
378805
106858
109901
481
-23857
8304
451
270
2091
993
-41859
6786
581
940
7149
-1122
-48036
-1254
565
1609
15225
0.8
-4.2
2.7
0.2
0.3
3.1
2.0
-7.0
1.9
0.2
1.0
8.5
-2.6
-7.9
-0.3
0.1
1.5
16.1
4136.3
1515.0
155.8
796.2
538.0
291.5
839.9
3998.9
1431.1
159.9
650.1
481.6
255.8
1020.5
4226.0
1510.3
127.6
672.2
506.6
270.4
1138.9
4372.3
1543.8
108.5
715.2
523.0
278.5
1203.4
4454.4
1626.7
93.8
719.4
521.3
274.8
1218.5
-65.9
-7.1
-8.0
-12.1
-12.6
-7.2
-19.0
-122.3
-1.9
-13.8
-20.4
-25.1
-16.7
-44.5
-221.5
-58.1
-10.6
-32.6
-35.9
-25.6
-58.7
-1.5
-0.5
-5.9
-1.8
-2.4
-2.6
-1.6
-2.7
-0.1
-11.3
-2.8
-4.6
-5.6
-3.6
-4.7
-3.4
-10.2
-4.3
-6.4
-8.5
-4.6
100.0
96.7
102.2
105.7
107.7
-1.6
-3.0
-5.4
-1.5
-2.7
-4.7
(1)
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
42
EU28: Medium gas and soaring oil prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
528.913
7511.4
227.0
3.22
4951
2.43
7.82
550.7
44.6
550.981
9217.8
193.8
3.24
5660
2.24
7.26
433.8
47.5
569.992
11370.5
172.0
3.43
6627
2.16
7.41
371.7
53.5
582.152
14408.7
144.3
3.57
7601
2.10
7.51
303.5
60.7
587.546
17374.7
124.0
3.67
8447
2.07
7.58
256.4
61.7
0.000
0.0
-1.6
-0.03
3
-0.01
-0.12
-5.8
-1.8
0.000
0.0
-2.3
-0.06
4
-0.03
-0.21
-8.5
-3.0
0.000
0.0
-2.1
-0.06
-2
-0.07
-0.38
-12.7
-3.6
0.0
0.0
-0.9
-0.9
0.1
-0.6
-1.5
-1.5
-3.2
0.0
0.0
-1.5
-1.5
0.1
-1.2
-2.7
-2.7
-4.7
0.0
0.0
-1.7
-1.7
0.0
-3.1
-4.7
-4.7
-5.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
81.8
87.3
84.3
98.7
75.7
80.4
78.9
92.2
66.1
70.5
70.1
79.4
58.7
62.1
62.5
68.0
-0.2
-0.7
-0.8
-1.3
-0.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.9
-0.7
-1.6
-1.3
-1.8
-0.3
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-0.7
-1.8
-2.0
-2.4
-1.2
-2.5
-2.1
-2.6
0.42
2.22
2.07
1.91
1.89
2.90
0.30
2.04
1.79
1.60
1.54
2.91
0.27
1.93
1.68
1.49
1.36
2.82
0.24
1.83
1.61
1.40
1.23
2.73
0.23
1.74
1.50
1.31
1.12
2.68
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
-0.02
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
-0.04
-0.03
-0.04
-0.05
-0.03
-0.01
-0.06
-0.05
-0.05
-0.08
-0.06
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5
-1.6
-0.2
-0.2
-2.1
-2.1
-2.8
-3.7
-1.2
-3.6
-3.3
-3.2
-4.0
-6.6
-2.1
725459
145542
116592
12806
176
450343
122684
210547
143140
80801
14814
0
1040
896692
139130
123997
82122
1661
549782
173039
182871
267025
76406
22056
0
1424
1055939
121509
130314
142021
4896
657199
240730
193479
346366
53428
62323
0
1604
1278712
114739
136296
218465
10583
798629
293266
262666
402930
38433
92841
0
1760
7869
0
63
2703
0
5103
4477
2337
-584
2951
399
0
0
17854
741
150
9740
0
7224
4990
8788
-6432
2183
2665
0
19
33586
6588
477
26210
0
310
1404
5163
-11487
1136
5474
0
25
0.9
0.0
0.1
3.4
0.0
0.9
2.7
1.3
-0.2
4.0
1.8
1.7
0.6
0.1
7.4
0.0
1.1
2.1
4.8
-1.8
4.3
4.5
2.7
6.1
0.4
13.6
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.0
-2.8
3.0
6.3
0.0
1.2
1.4
35.8
49.1
14.8
45.6
30.3
15.3
39.5
48.1
18.3
44.5
26.0
18.5
44.6
47.8
22.7
44.8
20.8
24.0
47.5
44.3
24.8
46.4
18.6
27.9
0.1
-0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.2
-0.8
0.2
1.0
0.1
0.9
-0.1
-1.2
-0.5
2.5
1.0
1.4
0.4
-0.8
0.6
0.3
-0.1
0.9
-0.4
-1.6
1.1
2.3
0.6
3.8
-0.3
-2.6
-1.8
5.6
5.9
5.5
5752.9
589.7
4397.4
423.6
304.7
37.4
6810.7
617.3
5219.0
469.0
460.3
45.0
8091.1
627.8
6250.4
520.1
637.1
55.7
9230.0
610.9
7185.3
573.2
796.9
63.7
-86.6
-1.3
-81.7
2.7
-6.2
0.0
-173.7
2.2
-162.6
5.8
-19.5
0.3
-264.4
4.6
-242.2
7.9
-35.3
0.6
-1.3
-0.2
-1.5
0.6
-1.3
0.0
-2.1
0.4
-2.5
1.1
-3.0
0.5
-2.8
0.8
-3.3
1.4
-4.2
0.9
Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
4881.2
618.4
3601.6
456.6
170.7
33.9
9229
10441
11949
13899
15709
-151.8
-298.4
-450.0
-1.3
-2.1
-2.8
1958.3
1159.5
532.6
266.3
2352.3
1668.6
405.9
277.8
2907.2
2162.3
441.0
303.9
3530.8
2722.5
470.3
338.0
4107.1
3241.9
499.1
366.1
-40.1
-42.0
3.0
-1.1
-81.2
-86.7
5.4
0.0
-124.4
-131.6
6.4
0.9
-1.4
-1.9
0.7
-0.4
-2.2
-3.1
1.2
0.0
-2.9
-3.9
1.3
0.2
261
255
256
245
236
-3.5
-5.6
-7.2
-1.4
-2.2
-2.9
289441
9634
140266
92511
9807
29928
7295
350426
8758
162549
116941
9691
46814
5673
404022
8891
175236
148842
8902
55707
6443
440881
8358
179687
175782
7109
62783
7162
455454
7097
178218
192088
6783
63643
7625
-5866
-19
-2248
-2776
21
-805
-40
-10708
30
-2648
-5222
25
-2873
-19
-12026
-22
-2759
-4631
42
-4658
2
-1.4
-0.2
-1.3
-1.8
0.2
-1.4
-0.6
-2.4
0.4
-1.5
-2.9
0.4
-4.4
-0.3
-2.6
-0.3
-1.5
-2.4
0.6
-6.8
0.0
38.5
51.8
39.3
52.8
36.3
53.9
31.8
52.0
27.7
48.7
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.7
Source: PRIMES
43
Europe-30: Medium gas and soaring oil prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
2000
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
1091087
377317
216359
186970
206883
103557
40003
59720
67
173
3595
1200143
228042
337714
253987
250675
129725
48250
74749
1919
703
4103
1188151
177577
276095
289168
260539
184773
50018
110021
17072
2479
5183
1134002
163686
234018
236558
244305
255436
54366
156823
29813
7913
6521
1100586
148165
182517
211006
245493
313405
57509
187248
44388
16725
7534
29821
633
17889
8193
0
3106
75
2443
726
143
-281
74111
6717
47145
5524
1471
13254
79
9457
2084
1826
-192
91168
1450
47288
1910
13730
26790
39
17339
4068
5426
-82
2.6
0.4
6.9
2.9
0.0
1.7
0.1
2.3
4.4
6.1
-5.1
7.0
4.3
25.2
2.4
0.6
5.5
0.1
6.4
7.5
30.0
-2.9
9.0
1.0
35.0
0.9
5.9
9.3
0.1
10.2
10.1
48.0
-1.1
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
695727
86632
490237
458354
31883
117149
1710
684878
108508
412700
384418
28282
163941
-272
873262
152982
480527
443630
36897
239863
-109
1056341
155623
527903
496844
31058
372793
22
1167231
198302
573532
548898
24634
395356
41
-50472
1510
-56137
-53753
-2384
4161
-5
-110286
1714
-108773
-105316
-3457
-3220
-6
-132168
-7912
-110725
-107764
-2961
-13522
-8
-5.5
1.0
-10.5
-10.8
-6.1
1.8
4.6
-9.5
1.1
-17.1
-17.5
-10.0
-0.9
-22.4
-10.2
-3.8
-16.2
-16.4
-10.7
-3.3
-16.2
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
1751588
468937
669257
301245
206883
1710
103557
1839144
345317
702393
411306
250675
-272
129725
2013359
330559
708567
529030
260539
-109
184773
2138332
319309
709909
609351
244305
22
255436
2213371
346467
701604
606362
245493
41
313405
-18866
2142
-36463
12354
0
-5
3106
-33216
8431
-58669
2303
1471
-6
13254
-37523
-6462
-59960
-11613
13730
-8
26790
-0.9
0.7
-4.9
2.4
0.0
4.6
1.7
-1.5
2.7
-7.6
0.4
0.6
-22.4
5.5
-1.7
-1.8
-7.9
-1.9
5.9
-16.2
9.3
26.8
38.2
17.2
11.8
5.9
18.8
38.2
22.4
13.6
7.1
16.4
35.2
26.3
12.9
9.2
14.9
33.2
28.5
11.4
11.9
15.7
31.7
27.4
11.1
14.2
0.3
-1.5
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.6
-2.2
0.5
0.2
0.8
0.0
-2.1
-0.1
0.8
1.4
1.6
-4.0
3.4
0.9
2.7
4.3
-6.2
1.9
2.2
7.1
-0.2
-6.3
-0.2
7.7
11.2
2794856
818651
465941
1510263
3323905
971593
583374
1768938
3994944
1009830
781709
2203405
4666022
946903
983221
2735898
5218308
951503
1193856
3072949
3355
0
9315
-5960
3682
5701
25148
-27166
670
53217
47750
-100296
0.1
0.0
1.2
-0.3
0.1
0.6
2.6
-1.0
0.0
5.9
4.2
-3.2
394358
266510
57394
56913
10698
2842
0
425676
235114
46636
118562
22359
3004
0
479478
239987
33499
171416
30699
3878
0
527938
242438
24142
195989
60502
4866
0
556847
283794
20855
167228
79340
5630
0
-3108
1569
-2383
-1715
-579
0
0
-2941
7791
-1262
-12144
2609
66
0
-16389
-3213
-256
-16824
3820
83
0
-0.6
0.7
-6.6
-1.0
-1.8
0.0
-0.6
3.3
-5.0
-5.8
4.5
1.4
-2.9
-1.1
-1.2
-9.1
5.1
1.5
884427
713481
2
38512
132432
866713
771184
637
19379
75512
858917
766257
17913
15879
58868
874006
770926
37802
14320
50958
872358
765905
49148
15761
41544
-38035
-38936
584
125
192
-57101
-61884
5402
-99
-520
-55472
-63863
9835
282
-1727
-4.2
-4.8
3.4
0.8
0.3
-6.1
-7.4
16.7
-0.7
-1.0
-6.0
-7.7
25.0
1.8
-4.0
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
83789
92950
93740
93606
91205
-2475
-4194
-4618
-2.6
-4.3
-4.8
103762
115166
114421
117208
118746
-1566
-3083
-3565
-1.4
-2.6
-2.9
1145388
1220510
1386378
1531962
1621607
-12643
-26206
-34166
-0.9
-1.7
-2.1
394004
252212
141792
290806
160718
299860
375356
236839
138517
310280
172911
361964
412651
249553
163097
350276
206630
416822
457892
262529
195362
385354
234730
453987
492354
264405
227949
408009
253348
467896
-1155
-883
-272
-3300
-2156
-6031
-3141
-2264
-877
-7293
-4765
-11007
-5675
-4022
-1653
-10548
-5398
-12544
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-0.7
-0.9
-0.4
-1.9
-2.0
-2.4
-1.1
-1.5
-0.7
-2.5
-2.1
-2.6
137278
477192
222317
200044
68198
40359
69933
518412
266915
238509
75229
51512
60248
556281
315164
294988
85963
73734
52365
575146
362160
351453
96504
94334
43027
573514
385978
397890
109138
112061
439
-24648
8470
563
280
2254
1035
-43162
6982
691
1009
7240
-1113
-49615
-1280
708
1732
15402
0.7
-4.2
2.8
0.2
0.3
3.2
2.0
-7.0
2.0
0.2
1.1
8.3
-2.5
-8.0
-0.3
0.2
1.6
15.9
4207.7
1515.7
163.4
807.4
551.3
300.2
869.6
4076.8
1431.7
170.4
663.2
493.5
264.5
1053.4
4308.4
1514.0
137.4
683.5
518.4
280.4
1174.7
4453.5
1546.7
117.5
728.4
533.6
288.3
1239.0
4528.4
1629.0
100.8
732.9
530.3
283.9
1251.5
-68.1
-7.2
-7.9
-12.7
-13.2
-7.7
-19.5
-126.0
-2.2
-13.9
-20.7
-26.0
-17.4
-45.7
-227.0
-58.5
-11.0
-33.2
-37.0
-26.6
-60.8
-1.6
-0.5
-5.4
-1.8
-2.5
-2.7
-1.6
-2.8
-0.1
-10.6
-2.8
-4.7
-5.7
-3.6
-4.8
-3.5
-9.8
-4.3
-6.5
-8.6
-4.6
100.0
96.9
102.4
105.8
107.6
-1.6
-3.0
-5.4
-1.6
-2.8
-4.8
(1)
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
44
Europe-30: Medium gas and soaring oil prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990
2000
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
539.950
7877.3
222.4
3.24
5176
2.40
7.79
534.2
38.9
562.681
9665.6
190.3
3.27
5907
2.22
7.25
421.8
36.4
582.130
11898.8
169.2
3.46
6863
2.14
7.40
362.1
42.4
594.587
15057.8
142.0
3.60
7847
2.08
7.49
295.8
48.2
600.252
18137.4
122.0
3.69
8694
2.05
7.54
249.7
51.5
0.000
0.0
-1.6
-0.03
6
-0.01
-0.12
-5.7
-2.0
0.000
0.0
-2.2
-0.06
6
-0.03
-0.21
-8.4
-4.2
0.000
0.0
-2.1
-0.06
1
-0.07
-0.38
-12.5
-4.8
0.0
0.0
-0.9
-0.9
0.1
-0.6
-1.6
-1.6
-4.5
0.0
0.0
-1.5
-1.5
0.1
-1.2
-2.8
-2.8
-8.0
0.0
0.0
-1.7
-1.7
0.0
-3.2
-4.8
-4.8
-8.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
81.7
87.4
84.5
98.4
75.6
80.3
79.3
92.0
66.0
70.4
70.3
79.2
58.6
62.0
62.7
67.8
-0.2
-0.8
-0.8
-1.3
-0.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.9
-0.7
-1.6
-1.3
-1.8
-0.3
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-0.7
-1.9
-2.0
-2.4
-1.1
-2.5
-2.1
-2.6
0.40
2.21
2.05
1.90
1.87
2.90
0.29
2.03
1.77
1.59
1.53
2.91
0.26
1.92
1.66
1.48
1.36
2.82
0.23
1.82
1.59
1.38
1.23
2.73
0.22
1.73
1.49
1.30
1.12
2.67
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
-0.02
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
-0.04
-0.03
-0.04
-0.05
-0.03
-0.01
-0.06
-0.05
-0.06
-0.08
-0.06
-0.6
-1.1
-1.5
-1.6
-1.6
-0.2
-0.3
-2.1
-2.1
-2.8
-3.8
-1.2
-3.7
-3.3
-3.2
-4.1
-6.6
-2.1
769539
148992
155831
12886
195
451636
123656
210703
143723
80968
15202
0
1040
946310
142580
165281
84249
1705
552495
174265
182965
268897
76549
22661
0
1424
1109473
124959
173512
144930
5007
661065
242859
193494
348445
53495
64027
0
1604
1335687
118452
179865
222624
10814
803932
296838
262666
404816
38494
96196
0
1760
8501
0
65
3288
0
5148
4475
2337
-540
2951
400
0
0
18234
741
198
9912
0
7383
5319
8788
-6462
2184
2854
0
19
34128
6877
526
26400
0
325
1589
5163
-11517
1137
5518
0
25
0.9
0.0
0.0
4.1
0.0
0.9
2.6
1.3
-0.2
4.0
1.8
1.7
0.6
0.1
7.3
0.0
1.1
2.2
4.8
-1.8
4.3
4.7
2.6
6.2
0.3
13.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.0
-2.8
3.0
6.1
0.0
1.2
1.4
35.7
49.3
14.0
48.9
29.2
19.6
39.5
48.2
17.5
47.4
25.3
22.1
44.6
48.0
21.7
47.5
20.3
27.2
47.5
44.6
23.9
49.0
18.2
30.8
0.1
-0.4
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.2
-0.8
0.3
1.0
0.1
0.9
-0.1
-1.2
-0.4
2.4
1.0
1.4
0.4
-0.8
0.5
0.3
-0.1
0.8
-0.4
-1.6
1.2
2.1
0.5
3.3
-0.3
-2.5
-1.7
5.2
5.9
4.7
5925.5
596.9
4530.1
443.8
316.3
38.4
7009.5
625.5
5370.2
492.1
475.5
46.2
8310.1
636.6
6416.0
545.1
655.4
57.0
9459.5
620.0
7358.4
599.1
816.8
65.1
-88.8
-1.3
-83.9
2.9
-6.4
0.0
-178.0
2.3
-166.6
6.2
-20.0
0.3
-270.2
4.7
-247.8
8.5
-36.1
0.6
-1.3
-0.2
-1.5
0.6
-1.3
0.0
-2.1
0.4
-2.5
1.1
-3.0
0.5
-2.8
0.8
-3.3
1.4
-4.2
0.9
Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
5032.5
625.6
3720.2
473.5
178.7
34.5
9320
10531
12041
13976
15759
-152.5
-299.3
-450.2
-1.3
-2.1
-2.8
2026.8
1179.2
544.1
303.5
2447.9
1705.6
419.3
323.0
3018.7
2212.9
456.9
348.9
3660.2
2790.2
486.9
383.1
4249.2
3325.1
515.9
408.2
-41.3
-42.9
3.1
-1.5
-83.4
-88.7
5.6
-0.3
-127.7
-135.0
6.7
0.5
-1.3
-1.9
0.7
-0.4
-2.2
-3.1
1.2
-0.1
-2.9
-3.9
1.3
0.1
257
253
254
243
234
-3.5
-5.5
-7.0
-1.3
-2.2
-2.9
299860
9802
145794
94266
10142
31627
8229
361964
8917
168062
119351
10079
49160
6394
416822
9069
180966
152157
9301
58157
7172
453987
8530
185052
179989
7435
65096
7884
467896
7247
182862
196752
7073
65669
8291
-6031
-19
-2313
-2829
21
-845
-45
-11007
31
-2717
-5333
27
-2990
-25
-12544
-24
-3048
-4703
44
-4811
-3
-1.4
-0.2
-1.3
-1.8
0.2
-1.4
-0.6
-2.4
0.4
-1.4
-2.9
0.4
-4.4
-0.3
-2.6
-0.3
-1.6
-2.3
0.6
-6.8
0.0
38.9
51.4
39.6
52.0
36.5
53.3
31.9
51.5
27.7
48.3
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.5
-0.1
0.7
Source: PRIMES
45
(1) EUROSTAT Energy Balances do not take into account non-marketed steam, i.e. steam generated - either in boilers or in CHP plants - and used on site by industrial consumers.
Using statistical information provided by EUROSTAT on CHP, the non-marketed steam generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel input have been estimated for
this study. In the PRIMES model, steam has been attributed to the demand side and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach ensures a better comparability of historical
figures with the projections. However, slight differences exist for certain figures related to steam generation - both in terms of final energy demand and transformation input - in
this report compared to EUROSTAT energy balances.
Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and
Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their
individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly
relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences
should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport,
which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km.
Abbreviations
GIC: Gross Inland Consumption
CHP: combined heat and power
Geographical regions
EU15: EU15 Member States
EU25: EU15 Member States + New Member States
NMS: New Member States (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia)
EU27: EU25 Member States + Bulgaria + Romania
EU28: EU27 + Turkey
Europe 30: EU28 + Norway + Switzerland
Units
toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule)
Mtoe: million toe
GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt
kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour
MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour
TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour
t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes
Mt: Million metric tonnes
km: kilometre
pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre)
tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre)
Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre
Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre
46
APPENDIX 2: “Soaring oil and gas prices” case results
Summary results by groups of countries (comparison to Baseline)
47
EU25: Soaring oil and gas prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
877543
351650
120396
139723
196920
68855
23391
42151
67
145
3101
898598
204139
163631
196665
237664
96499
28982
61865
1913
417
3322
859763
156204
134233
173249
248776
147301
29960
95431
16147
1566
4196
775922
142588
77346
114040
230221
211728
32348
140920
29242
4034
5184
769749
123880
60989
100529
224609
259742
33883
169420
42430
8166
5842
23347
1676
17054
1071
0
3545
82
3023
361
76
2
69401
11506
24387
15690
1583
16235
145
11728
3000
1287
74
84647
3683
17540
20723
13802
28899
2
20541
4488
3772
96
2.8
1.1
14.6
0.6
0.0
2.5
0.3
3.3
2.3
5.1
0.1
9.8
8.8
46.1
16.0
0.7
8.3
0.5
9.1
11.4
46.9
1.4
12.4
3.1
40.4
26.0
6.5
12.5
0.0
13.8
11.8
85.8
1.7
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
711300
75449
510017
479112
30905
123653
2181
801061
94307
518147
496826
21321
186463
2144
980875
132476
552010
515711
36299
294156
2232
1129974
158886
600844
570775
30069
368129
2116
1142586
202521
589239
564775
24465
348631
2195
-43401
189
-47688
-45646
-2042
4103
-4
-101717
30491
-69022
-65900
-3122
-63181
-6
-122981
29602
-63210
-61476
-1734
-89366
-7
-4.2
0.1
-8.0
-8.1
-5.3
1.4
-0.2
-8.3
23.7
-10.3
-10.4
-9.4
-14.6
-0.3
-9.7
17.1
-9.7
-9.8
-6.6
-20.4
-0.3
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
1556194
431944
595746
260548
196920
2181
68855
1653841
306538
634711
376284
237664
2144
96499
1794231
288680
639836
467405
248776
2232
147301
1855915
301473
628209
482169
230221
2116
211728
1860283
326401
598176
449160
224609
2195
259742
-18302
1865
-28882
5174
0
-4
3545
-29421
41997
-41740
-47490
1583
-6
16235
-34955
33284
-42290
-68642
13802
-7
28899
-1.0
0.7
-4.3
1.1
0.0
-0.2
2.5
-1.6
16.2
-6.2
-9.0
0.7
-0.3
8.3
-1.8
11.4
-6.6
-13.3
6.5
-0.3
12.5
27.8
38.3
16.7
12.7
4.4
18.5
38.4
22.8
14.4
5.8
16.1
35.7
26.1
13.9
8.2
16.2
33.8
26.0
12.4
11.4
17.5
32.2
24.1
12.1
14.0
0.3
-1.2
0.5
0.1
0.3
2.5
-1.7
-2.1
0.3
1.0
2.1
-1.6
-3.2
1.0
1.8
1.7
-3.3
2.2
1.0
3.5
18.0
-4.7
-7.5
2.3
10.0
13.4
-4.8
-11.6
8.5
14.6
2455674
780056
272788
1402830
2900835
921193
359249
1620392
3484916
964265
537702
1982949
4015411
892343
729278
2393790
4386744
870586
922558
2593601
1730
0
5158
-3427
9636
6136
45427
-41928
20145
53494
78835
-112184
0.0
0.0
1.0
-0.2
0.2
0.7
6.6
-1.7
0.5
6.5
9.3
-4.1
355362
246377
48954
47057
10201
2774
0
385987
214488
41870
105480
21211
2939
0
430031
215668
30953
151095
28624
3691
0
465977
237236
22827
145871
55349
4693
0
480192
270641
19600
109692
74889
5372
0
-2210
718
-680
-1731
-522
6
0
3206
38735
-485
-36860
1730
85
0
-9846
30329
-195
-45556
5465
111
0
-0.5
0.3
-2.2
-1.1
-1.8
0.2
0.7
19.5
-2.1
-20.2
3.2
1.9
-2.0
12.6
-1.0
-29.3
7.9
2.1
797634
642275
2
31035
124322
796450
710448
637
17261
68104
782094
697581
17360
15368
51785
784309
689954
36182
14162
44011
758244
661931
45572
15562
35179
-30802
-31341
568
118
-147
-39787
-44071
5177
344
-1238
-38821
-46172
9197
828
-2675
-3.8
-4.3
3.4
0.8
-0.3
-4.8
-6.0
16.7
2.5
-2.7
-4.9
-6.5
25.3
5.6
-7.1
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
73032
80377
79437
78100
74978
-2061
-3067
-3156
-2.5
-3.8
-4.0
Non-Energy Uses
94476
105950
106409
108335
108791
-1439
-2865
-3373
-1.3
-2.6
-3.0
1021913
1095359
1225229
1308203
1331203
-12777
-30301
-39250
-1.0
-2.3
-2.9
341087
216809
124278
261006
146622
273198
330062
211616
118446
273302
158975
333020
355202
219754
135448
308251
186033
375744
378606
225458
153148
328341
205138
396118
385380
219902
165478
337353
215974
392495
-1219
-1006
-213
-3715
-2454
-5389
-3796
-2934
-862
-10400
-6718
-9387
-6185
-5030
-1155
-13932
-9342
-9791
-0.3
-0.5
-0.2
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.0
-1.3
-0.6
-3.1
-3.2
-2.3
-1.6
-2.2
-0.7
-4.0
-4.1
-2.4
123937
428121
200242
176468
63092
30053
56633
468312
251885
211352
68712
38465
45953
496648
282664
259710
80513
59742
42021
498529
298078
303654
88801
77120
35691
476468
299505
335840
96931
86768
751
-20694
3489
400
336
2940
2601
-31366
-11648
736
1110
8266
1667
-35369
-21893
1796
1606
12942
1.7
-4.0
1.2
0.2
0.4
5.2
6.6
-5.9
-3.8
0.2
1.3
12.0
4.9
-6.9
-6.8
0.5
1.7
17.5
3776.1
1362.6
141.5
698.9
506.1
274.2
792.7
3674.1
1294.9
144.9
567.7
452.1
244.6
969.9
3818.9
1357.7
116.7
564.8
467.9
254.7
1057.1
3870.2
1399.3
101.7
573.7
460.5
259.7
1075.2
3804.6
1437.7
88.0
539.2
440.1
257.7
1041.9
-63.0
-4.2
-7.2
-12.2
-14.8
-7.1
-17.5
-58.4
66.0
-12.2
-21.5
-34.4
-16.1
-40.2
-150.5
13.7
-11.7
-30.6
-46.6
-24.2
-51.0
-1.6
-0.3
-5.8
-2.1
-3.1
-2.7
-1.6
-1.5
5.0
-10.7
-3.6
-6.9
-5.8
-3.6
-3.8
1.0
-11.7
-5.4
-9.6
-8.6
-4.7
100.0
97.3
101.1
102.5
100.8
-1.7
-1.5
-4.0
-1.6
-1.5
-3.8
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
(1)
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
48
EU25: Soaring oil and gas prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
440.788
7294.7
213.3
3.53
5571
2.43
8.57
517.7
44.7
452.915
8947.0
184.8
3.65
6405
2.22
8.11
410.7
47.2
464.054
10946.8
163.9
3.87
7510
2.13
8.23
348.9
53.3
469.270
13656.3
135.9
3.95
8557
2.09
8.25
283.4
59.3
469.365
16051.4
115.9
3.96
9346
2.05
8.11
237.0
59.7
0.000
0.0
-1.7
-0.04
4
-0.01
-0.14
-5.8
-1.8
0.000
0.0
-2.2
-0.06
21
0.00
-0.12
-4.3
-4.3
0.000
0.0
-2.2
-0.07
43
-0.04
-0.32
-9.4
-5.1
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
-0.6
-1.6
-1.6
-3.2
0.0
0.0
-1.6
-1.6
0.2
0.1
-1.5
-1.5
-6.7
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-1.8
0.5
-2.0
-3.8
-3.8
-7.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
83.8
85.8
84.9
99.4
77.0
79.4
78.5
91.7
66.0
68.4
68.4
77.4
57.6
60.0
60.7
65.3
-0.3
-1.0
-1.0
-1.3
-0.7
-2.2
-2.2
-1.8
-0.9
-2.5
-2.6
-1.6
-0.3
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.0
-3.1
-3.2
-2.3
-1.6
-4.0
-4.1
-2.4
0.41
2.22
2.05
1.94
1.87
2.90
0.30
2.04
1.72
1.65
1.54
2.91
0.26
1.91
1.59
1.52
1.37
2.81
0.24
1.81
1.52
1.40
1.27
2.71
0.23
1.71
1.40
1.30
1.19
2.65
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
-0.04
-0.04
-0.06
-0.04
-0.04
0.00
-0.06
-0.06
-0.08
-0.06
-0.06
-0.4
-1.1
-1.8
-1.9
-1.4
-0.2
4.5
-2.3
-2.6
-4.0
-2.7
-1.3
0.1
-3.5
-3.9
-5.8
-4.6
-2.3
661750
141082
97168
12785
176
410539
112958
188879
131875
74302
14462
0
1022
816139
136430
104039
80047
1658
493965
154867
158522
244648
68265
21171
0
1358
969787
117730
109036
142313
10620
590088
219747
187827
291783
49861
59075
0
1542
1155385
108106
112688
210513
27727
696351
257602
240033
328852
36015
89776
0
1676
5632
0
105
1656
0
3871
3997
1986
-790
2216
457
0
2
27206
794
418
14690
5771
5534
10785
31021
-29425
1931
1981
0
25
59093
6890
487
27581
17363
6772
9603
28797
-31282
1049
8175
0
33
0.7
0.0
0.1
2.1
0.0
0.8
2.6
1.3
-0.3
3.4
2.2
2.9
0.7
0.4
11.5
119.0
0.9
5.2
19.8
-9.2
4.0
3.5
5.4
6.8
0.4
15.1
167.5
1.0
3.9
13.6
-8.7
3.0
10.0
0.1
1.7
2.0
36.1
50.0
14.5
46.5
31.8
14.7
39.7
48.7
17.9
45.9
27.7
18.2
44.2
47.3
22.5
47.1
22.2
24.9
46.5
43.3
24.2
50.0
19.8
30.1
0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
-1.1
-1.2
0.6
1.6
0.1
1.5
-1.0
-2.1
-0.1
3.7
1.1
2.5
0.3
-0.6
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.6
-2.4
-2.6
2.9
3.4
0.5
6.3
-2.2
-4.7
-0.5
7.9
6.1
9.2
5466.3
480.1
4253.1
402.7
296.9
33.6
6368.3
493.4
4940.9
448.6
445.6
39.7
7246.9
481.6
5638.8
482.1
598.5
45.8
7907.4
469.5
6158.5
511.2
718.1
50.0
-81.1
-1.6
-75.6
2.2
-6.0
0.0
-155.1
1.0
-141.9
3.6
-18.1
0.3
-222.8
2.7
-200.0
5.6
-31.6
0.5
-1.3
-0.3
-1.5
0.5
-1.3
0.0
-2.1
0.2
-2.5
0.8
-2.9
0.6
-2.7
0.6
-3.1
1.1
-4.2
1.0
Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4640.8
504.1
3529.3
411.9
166.3
29.2
Travel per person (km per capita)
10528
12069
13723
15443
16847
-174.7
-330.6
-474.7
-1.3
-2.1
-2.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
1753.9
1034.1
461.7
258.1
2131.5
1486.3
374.2
271.0
2547.1
1854.7
404.4
288.0
2980.0
2239.2
425.2
315.7
3331.3
2551.0
443.8
336.5
-35.1
-36.5
2.4
-1.0
-68.7
-72.5
3.8
0.1
-100.6
-106.3
4.9
0.9
-1.4
-1.9
0.6
-0.4
-2.3
-3.1
0.9
0.0
-2.9
-4.0
1.1
0.3
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
240
238
233
218
208
-3.2
-5.0
-6.3
-1.4
-2.3
-2.9
273198
7841
138202
82444
9066
28932
6714
333020
7018
158349
108068
8897
45320
5368
375744
6995
168082
133163
8320
53413
5771
396118
6282
166615
152320
6505
58208
6188
392495
5270
157686
160927
6022
56237
6353
-5389
-26
-2094
-2485
13
-761
-37
-9387
8
-2286
-4510
-13
-2569
-17
-9791
-51
-2165
-3459
3
-4121
1
-1.4
-0.4
-1.2
-1.8
0.2
-1.4
-0.6
-2.3
0.1
-1.4
-2.9
-0.2
-4.2
-0.3
-2.4
-1.0
-1.4
-2.1
0.0
-6.8
0.0
39.3
51.7
39.9
53.9
37.0
55.1
32.7
53.4
28.4
50.4
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.5
0.1
-0.4
0.1
-0.5
0.0
0.9
Source: PRIMES
49
EU15: Soaring oil and gas prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
707946
210737
117782
132975
181439
65014
22275
39426
67
145
3101
761643
100172
160552
190581
222846
87491
27627
54257
1912
381
3315
731362
68993
131760
167395
231522
131692
28495
81886
15736
1395
4180
642079
67998
74822
108148
207161
183950
30687
117036
27389
3676
5162
625672
61060
58722
95043
188050
222796
32014
138414
39090
7462
5816
21724
735
16942
975
0
3073
79
2567
355
70
2
61580
8002
23994
15113
0
14471
144
10813
2210
1231
73
73939
2443
17125
20027
10464
23880
0
16008
4183
3596
94
3.1
1.1
14.8
0.6
0.0
2.4
0.3
3.2
2.3
5.3
0.0
10.6
13.3
47.2
16.2
0.0
8.5
0.5
10.2
8.8
50.4
1.4
13.4
4.2
41.2
26.7
5.9
12.0
0.0
13.1
12.0
93.0
1.6
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
643284
89663
458793
435365
23428
92495
2333
741591
110142
472543
455606
16937
155262
3644
885791
136107
498661
471167
27494
247203
3820
1006597
152932
539973
519824
20149
309922
3770
1003924
184715
523137
509204
13933
291117
4956
-38634
1026
-44099
-42665
-1433
4441
-3
-88303
29454
-63590
-61308
-2282
-54163
-4
-106919
24762
-56281
-55698
-583
-75394
-6
-4.2
0.8
-8.1
-8.3
-5.0
1.8
-0.1
-8.1
23.9
-10.5
-10.5
-10.2
-14.9
-0.1
-9.6
15.5
-9.7
-9.9
-4.0
-20.6
-0.1
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
1319965
303612
544159
223408
181439
2333
65014
1456936
215739
587926
339289
222846
3644
87491
1571833
205100
585101
414597
231522
3820
131692
1599888
220930
566007
418071
207161
3770
183950
1578810
245775
531073
386160
188050
4956
222796
-15212
1761
-25458
5416
0
-3
3073
-23909
37457
-36782
-39050
0
-4
14471
-29690
27204
-35865
-55367
10464
-6
23880
-1.0
0.9
-4.2
1.3
0.0
-0.1
2.4
-1.5
20.4
-6.1
-8.5
0.0
-0.1
8.5
-1.8
12.4
-6.3
-12.5
5.9
-0.1
12.0
23.0
41.2
16.9
13.7
4.9
14.8
40.4
23.3
15.3
6.0
13.0
37.2
26.4
14.7
8.4
13.8
35.4
26.1
12.9
11.5
15.6
33.6
24.5
11.9
14.1
0.2
-1.2
0.6
0.1
0.3
2.5
-1.7
-2.0
0.2
1.1
2.0
-1.6
-3.0
0.9
1.7
1.8
-3.2
2.3
1.0
3.4
22.2
-4.7
-7.2
1.5
10.2
14.6
-4.6
-10.9
7.9
14.1
2138940
720059
259810
1159070
2576502
863760
343478
1369264
3084372
897389
515860
1671123
3492473
802961
688244
2001268
3750317
728878
861320
2160119
1622
0
5044
-3422
7731
0
36221
-28490
14872
40559
75254
-100940
0.1
0.0
1.0
-0.2
0.2
0.0
5.6
-1.4
0.4
5.9
9.6
-4.5
282186
184170
43718
41697
9827
2774
0
319336
158097
38588
99188
20524
2939
0
354439
157476
28504
138991
25777
3691
0
382375
179207
20603
130196
47675
4693
0
397192
211654
17518
99748
62900
5372
0
-1541
1121
-196
-1944
-529
6
0
5150
36402
-355
-33656
2674
85
0
-8370
27468
45
-40087
4092
111
0
-0.4
0.7
-0.7
-1.4
-2.0
0.2
1.4
25.5
-1.7
-20.5
5.9
1.9
-2.1
14.9
0.3
-28.7
7.0
2.1
704402
595036
2
13085
96279
725664
665476
604
8717
50868
712224
649652
16055
6874
39643
707218
635383
32909
5614
33312
675503
602897
40839
5613
26154
-27725
-28434
529
138
41
-35634
-39804
4716
152
-698
-34318
-40715
8319
-34
-1888
-3.7
-4.2
3.4
2.1
0.1
-4.8
-5.9
16.7
2.8
-2.1
-4.8
-6.3
25.6
-0.6
-6.7
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
63555
67696
67217
65197
61745
-1627
-2324
-2463
-2.4
-3.4
-3.8
Non-Energy Uses
84387
95815
95812
95418
94005
-1251
-2378
-2777
-1.3
-2.4
-2.9
866453
970663
1075565
1128915
1130686
-11170
-26189
-33240
-1.0
-2.3
-2.9
272481
182306
90175
220020
121346
252606
284781
182967
101814
238404
137376
310102
305610
190593
115017
265951
159599
344404
319631
192680
126951
278121
171679
359485
320568
185818
134749
281375
176809
351934
-1158
-922
-237
-3170
-2022
-4819
-3427
-2611
-816
-8877
-5538
-8347
-5565
-4435
-1130
-11738
-7680
-8256
-0.4
-0.5
-0.2
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.1
-1.3
-0.6
-3.1
-3.1
-2.3
-1.7
-2.3
-0.8
-4.0
-4.2
-2.3
79761
393325
173014
155929
36558
27865
35330
434547
226415
191711
50708
31953
29157
454472
248332
233492
60134
49978
26842
449477
257149
267088
65474
62885
22127
423173
254455
290424
70175
70332
532
-18665
3666
329
243
2725
1528
-27779
-8344
482
718
7206
515
-30682
-16646
1328
1185
11060
1.9
-3.9
1.5
0.1
0.4
5.8
6.0
-5.8
-3.1
0.2
1.1
12.9
2.4
-6.8
-6.1
0.5
1.7
18.7
3068.4
1021.1
127.2
545.2
419.7
220.7
734.5
3127.0
1014.7
127.0
471.6
401.5
207.4
904.8
3237.6
1062.3
106.7
465.1
413.9
219.6
970.1
3257.2
1100.7
92.3
462.2
405.0
220.0
977.0
3184.3
1146.2
79.5
424.3
386.0
212.8
935.4
-53.3
-1.3
-6.0
-10.7
-13.4
-6.1
-15.7
-43.8
64.2
-10.4
-18.5
-29.8
-13.3
-36.0
-126.7
13.6
-9.9
-26.9
-39.2
-19.8
-44.4
-1.6
-0.1
-5.4
-2.3
-3.1
-2.7
-1.6
-1.3
6.2
-10.1
-3.8
-6.9
-5.7
-3.6
-3.8
1.2
-11.1
-6.0
-9.2
-8.5
-4.5
100.0
101.9
105.5
106.2
103.8
-1.7
-1.4
-4.1
-1.6
-1.3
-3.8
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
(1)
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
50
EU15: Soaring oil and gas prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
365.749
6981.9
189.1
3.61
5848
2.32
8.39
439.5
47.5
378.062
8572.2
170.0
3.85
6815
2.15
8.27
364.8
49.5
390.652
10391.5
151.3
4.02
7895
2.06
8.29
311.6
54.8
397.458
12835.7
124.6
4.03
8787
2.04
8.20
253.8
61.1
398.737
14948.8
105.6
3.96
9405
2.02
7.99
213.0
61.6
0.000
0.0
-1.5
-0.04
4
-0.01
-0.14
-5.1
-1.8
0.000
0.0
-1.9
-0.06
19
0.00
-0.11
-3.4
-4.3
0.000
0.0
-2.0
-0.07
37
-0.04
-0.32
-8.5
-5.2
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
0.1
-0.7
-1.6
-1.6
-3.2
0.0
0.0
-1.5
-1.5
0.2
0.1
-1.3
-1.3
-6.6
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-1.8
0.4
-2.0
-3.8
-3.8
-7.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
90.9
88.8
88.7
100.0
85.0
82.1
81.9
91.6
72.6
70.3
70.2
77.4
63.0
61.3
61.5
65.1
-0.3
-1.0
-1.0
-1.3
-0.8
-2.2
-2.3
-1.8
-1.1
-2.6
-2.7
-1.5
-0.4
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.1
-3.1
-3.1
-2.3
-1.7
-4.0
-4.2
-2.3
0.39
2.22
2.00
1.91
1.82
2.91
0.27
2.05
1.66
1.68
1.51
2.92
0.24
1.92
1.52
1.56
1.38
2.82
0.23
1.83
1.45
1.46
1.28
2.72
0.22
1.73
1.32
1.37
1.20
2.66
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
-0.04
-0.04
-0.06
-0.04
-0.04
0.00
-0.06
-0.06
-0.08
-0.06
-0.06
-0.2
-1.2
-1.9
-2.0
-1.5
-0.2
5.8
-2.3
-2.8
-3.9
-2.7
-1.3
0.5
-3.5
-4.3
-5.4
-4.5
-2.3
588083
131758
90794
12769
176
352586
88543
144882
125804
67470
13407
0
1022
728815
127644
97207
77763
1645
424556
128218
118175
227273
60851
16899
0
1358
850573
106198
101680
131775
10483
500437
185487
145060
262662
43712
47461
0
1542
985663
89920
104865
192386
27189
571303
203250
179642
289690
31244
69052
0
1676
4646
0
93
1631
0
2921
3519
1654
-680
1870
74
0
2
22483
0
413
10444
5771
5856
9938
27911
-26960
1983
2897
0
25
56109
5251
469
25577
17363
7449
9236
25456
-25690
1828
5823
0
33
0.6
0.0
0.1
2.1
0.0
0.7
2.8
1.4
-0.3
3.2
0.4
2.7
0.0
0.4
8.6
122.5
1.2
5.7
23.8
-9.3
4.8
6.5
6.0
6.2
0.4
15.3
176.7
1.3
4.8
16.5
-8.1
6.2
9.2
0.1
1.7
2.0
36.9
50.0
13.4
49.4
33.5
15.9
40.5
48.3
16.8
48.6
29.1
19.5
45.0
46.9
21.1
49.3
23.0
26.4
46.8
43.4
21.5
51.4
19.4
31.9
0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
-1.3
-1.2
0.7
1.5
-0.1
1.6
-1.2
-2.4
-0.1
3.6
1.0
2.6
0.2
-0.6
0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.6
-2.7
-2.4
3.4
3.2
-0.2
6.3
-2.5
-5.3
-0.5
7.6
5.5
9.0
4997.7
401.8
3928.0
351.3
283.6
33.0
5759.9
421.0
4479.3
397.8
422.8
39.1
6509.2
414.8
5051.1
432.3
566.0
45.0
7035.0
406.7
5440.5
461.7
677.0
49.2
-72.1
-1.5
-66.6
1.5
-5.6
0.0
-136.7
0.8
-123.3
2.7
-17.1
0.3
-193.8
2.2
-171.2
4.6
-29.8
0.5
-1.2
-0.4
-1.5
0.4
-1.3
0.0
-2.1
0.2
-2.4
0.6
-2.9
0.6
-2.7
0.5
-3.1
1.0
-4.2
1.0
Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4130.1
369.0
3265.7
309.8
157.3
28.4
Travel per person (km per capita)
11292
13219
14744
16377
17643
-184.6
-343.8
-486.0
-1.2
-2.1
-2.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
1419.2
914.2
254.9
250.1
1825.6
1309.3
249.5
266.8
2113.9
1560.9
269.3
283.7
2436.0
1842.1
282.7
311.1
2696.2
2072.7
291.7
331.9
-29.3
-29.4
1.1
-1.0
-55.4
-57.5
2.0
0.1
-80.0
-83.8
2.9
0.8
-1.4
-1.8
0.4
-0.4
-2.2
-3.0
0.7
0.0
-2.9
-3.9
1.0
0.2
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
203
213
203
190
180
-2.8
-4.3
-5.4
-1.4
-2.2
-2.9
252606
6250
129911
75351
6970
27742
6383
310102
5860
146708
100615
7579
44025
5314
344404
5932
153344
120989
7119
51306
5714
359485
5360
150209
136586
5523
55680
6127
351934
4503
139054
143119
5130
53838
6290
-4819
-24
-1838
-2196
5
-730
-37
-8347
3
-1960
-3904
-22
-2446
-18
-8256
-51
-1680
-2594
-3
-3928
0
-1.4
-0.4
-1.2
-1.8
0.1
-1.4
-0.6
-2.3
0.1
-1.3
-2.8
-0.4
-4.2
-0.3
-2.3
-1.1
-1.2
-1.8
-0.1
-6.8
0.0
41.2
58.0
40.7
58.5
37.7
60.2
33.3
58.6
28.8
55.4
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.7
0.1
-0.4
0.1
-0.5
0.0
1.2
Source: PRIMES
51
NMS: Soaring oil and gas prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
169598
140913
2614
6749
15481
3841
1116
2725
0
0
0
136955
103966
3079
6084
14818
9008
1355
7609
1
35
8
128401
87210
2473
5855
17254
15609
1465
13545
412
171
16
133843
74590
2524
5891
23060
27778
1661
23883
1853
358
22
144077
62820
2267
5486
36559
36946
1869
31006
3340
704
26
1622
941
112
96
0
473
3
456
6
6
0
7821
3504
394
577
1583
1764
2
915
790
56
1
10708
1240
415
696
3337
5019
2
4533
306
176
1
1.3
1.1
4.8
1.7
0.0
3.1
0.2
3.5
1.6
3.9
1.9
6.2
4.9
18.5
10.9
7.4
6.8
0.1
4.0
74.4
18.7
5.4
8.0
2.0
22.4
14.5
10.0
15.7
0.1
17.1
10.1
33.4
5.8
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
68016
-14214
51224
43747
7477
31158
-152
59470
-15836
45604
41220
4384
31202
-1500
95084
-3631
53350
44545
8805
46953
-1588
123377
5954
60870
50951
9919
58206
-1654
138662
17806
66102
55571
10531
57514
-2761
-4766
-838
-3589
-2981
-609
-338
-1
-13414
1037
-5432
-4593
-839
-9017
-2
-16063
4840
-6930
-5778
-1151
-13972
-1
-4.8
30.0
-6.3
-6.3
-6.5
-0.7
0.1
-9.8
21.1
-8.2
-8.3
-7.8
-13.4
0.1
-10.4
37.3
-9.5
-9.4
-9.9
-19.5
0.1
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
236229
128332
51587
37140
15481
-152
3841
196904
90799
46785
36994
14818
-1500
9008
222397
83579
54735
52808
17254
-1588
15609
256027
80544
62202
64098
23060
-1654
27778
281472
80626
67102
63000
36559
-2761
36946
-3090
103
-3423
-242
0
-1
473
-5512
4540
-4957
-8440
1583
-2
1764
-5265
6080
-6425
-13275
3337
-1
5019
-1.4
0.1
-5.9
-0.5
0.0
0.1
3.1
-2.1
6.0
-7.4
-11.6
7.4
0.1
6.8
-1.8
8.2
-8.7
-17.4
10.0
0.1
15.7
54.3
21.8
15.7
6.6
1.6
46.1
23.8
18.8
7.5
4.6
37.6
24.6
23.7
7.8
7.0
31.5
24.3
25.0
9.0
10.8
28.6
23.8
22.4
13.0
13.1
0.6
-1.2
0.2
0.1
0.3
2.4
-1.4
-2.7
0.8
0.9
2.6
-1.8
-4.2
1.4
2.0
1.5
-4.6
0.9
1.4
4.6
8.3
-5.4
-9.7
9.7
9.1
10.2
-7.0
-15.9
12.1
17.9
316734
59996
12978
243760
324333
57434
15771
251128
400544
66876
21842
311826
522938
89382
41034
392522
636427
141708
61238
433481
108
0
114
-5
1905
6136
9206
-13438
5274
12936
3581
-11243
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.4
7.4
28.9
-3.3
0.8
10.0
6.2
-2.5
73176
62206
5236
5360
374
0
0
66652
56391
3281
6292
687
0
0
75592
58192
2449
12104
2847
0
0
83602
58030
2224
15675
7674
0
0
83000
58986
2081
9944
11989
0
0
-668
-403
-484
212
7
0
0
-1945
2333
-129
-3204
-945
0
0
-1476
2861
-240
-5469
1373
0
0
-0.9
-0.7
-16.5
1.8
0.2
-2.3
4.2
-5.5
-17.0
-11.0
-1.7
5.1
-10.4
-35.5
12.9
93232
47239
0
17949
28043
70786
44972
33
8544
17236
69871
47929
1305
8494
12142
77091
54571
3273
8548
10699
82741
59034
4732
9949
9025
-3077
-2906
38
-20
-189
-4152
-4266
462
192
-539
-4503
-5457
878
862
-786
-4.2
-5.7
3.0
-0.2
-1.5
-5.1
-7.3
16.4
2.3
-4.8
-5.2
-8.5
22.8
9.5
-8.0
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
9477
12681
12219
12902
13233
-434
-743
-693
-3.4
-5.4
-5.0
10089
10135
10597
12917
14786
-188
-487
-596
-1.7
-3.6
-3.9
155460
124696
149664
179287
200517
-1607
-4112
-6011
-1.1
-2.2
-2.9
68606
34503
34103
40986
25276
20592
45281
28649
16632
34898
21599
22917
49591
29161
20430
42300
26434
31340
58976
32778
26198
50220
33458
36633
64812
34084
30729
55978
39165
40561
-61
-84
24
-545
-432
-570
-369
-324
-46
-1523
-1180
-1040
-620
-595
-25
-2194
-1662
-1535
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
-1.3
-1.6
-1.8
-0.6
-1.0
-0.2
-2.9
-3.4
-2.8
-0.9
-1.7
-0.1
-3.8
-4.1
-3.6
44176
34795
27229
20539
26534
2188
21303
33764
25471
19641
18005
6512
16796
42176
34332
26218
20379
9764
15178
49052
40929
36566
23327
14235
13564
53295
45050
45416
26756
16436
219
-2029
-177
72
93
216
1073
-3587
-3304
255
392
1060
1152
-4687
-5247
469
422
1882
1.3
-4.6
-0.5
0.3
0.5
2.3
7.6
-6.8
-7.5
0.7
1.7
8.0
9.3
-8.1
-10.4
1.0
1.6
12.9
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
707.7
341.5
14.3
153.7
86.4
53.5
58.2
547.1
280.2
17.9
96.1
50.6
37.2
65.1
581.4
295.4
10.1
99.7
54.0
35.1
87.0
613.0
298.5
9.4
111.6
55.5
39.8
98.3
620.2
291.5
8.4
114.9
54.1
44.8
106.4
-9.7
-2.8
-1.2
-1.5
-1.4
-1.0
-1.8
-14.6
1.8
-1.9
-3.0
-4.6
-2.8
-4.2
-23.8
0.1
-1.8
-3.7
-7.4
-4.4
-6.6
-1.6
-0.9
-10.3
-1.5
-2.5
-2.9
-2.0
-2.3
0.6
-16.6
-2.6
-7.6
-6.5
-4.1
-3.7
0.0
-17.3
-3.1
-12.0
-8.9
-5.9
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
77.3
82.2
86.6
87.6
-1.4
-2.1
-3.4
-1.6
-2.3
-3.7
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
(1)
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
Source: PRIMES
52
NMS: Soaring oil and gas prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
75.039
312.8
755.2
3.15
4221
3.00
9.43
2262.2
28.7
74.853
374.8
525.3
2.63
4333
2.78
7.31
1459.6
30.1
73.401
555.3
400.5
3.03
5457
2.61
7.92
1046.9
42.5
71.813
820.6
312.0
3.57
7282
2.39
8.54
747.0
48.0
70.628
1102.7
255.3
3.99
9011
2.20
8.78
562.5
49.0
0.000
0.0
-5.6
-0.04
1
-0.01
-0.13
-17.4
-1.5
0.000
0.0
-6.7
-0.08
27
-0.01
-0.20
-17.7
-4.1
0.000
0.0
-4.8
-0.07
75
-0.04
-0.34
-21.6
-4.7
0.0
0.0
-1.4
-1.4
0.0
-0.3
-1.6
-1.6
-3.4
0.0
0.0
-2.1
-2.1
0.4
-0.2
-2.3
-2.3
-7.8
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-1.8
0.8
-1.9
-3.7
-3.7
-8.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
52.9
70.0
65.9
92.9
35.2
56.3
54.2
85.7
28.1
44.8
45.6
67.8
23.7
36.9
38.5
55.9
0.0
-0.7
-0.9
-1.6
-0.2
-1.4
-1.6
-1.9
-0.2
-1.4
-1.6
-2.1
-0.1
-1.3
-1.6
-1.8
-0.6
-2.9
-3.4
-2.8
-0.9
-3.8
-4.1
-3.6
0.50
2.26
2.24
2.11
2.12
2.83
0.46
2.00
2.12
1.45
1.72
2.84
0.40
1.84
2.01
1.28
1.33
2.78
0.33
1.70
1.89
1.10
1.19
2.68
0.27
1.60
1.77
0.97
1.14
2.62
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
-0.02
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
-0.04
-0.04
-0.06
-0.04
-0.04
0.00
-0.06
-0.04
-0.09
-0.06
-0.06
-1.3
-1.0
-1.3
-1.2
-1.3
-0.3
-0.2
-2.4
-2.0
-4.8
-3.2
-1.4
-1.6
-3.7
-2.2
-8.6
-5.1
-2.3
73667
9324
6374
16
0
57953
24415
43996
6071
6832
1055
0
0
87324
8786
6832
2284
13
69409
26649
40347
17376
7414
4272
0
0
119214
11532
7355
10538
138
89651
34260
42767
29121
6149
11613
0
0
169722
18187
7823
18126
537
125048
54353
60391
39162
4771
20724
0
0
986
0
12
25
0
950
477
331
-110
345
383
0
0
4723
794
5
4246
0
-322
847
3110
-2464
-52
-916
0
0
2983
1639
18
2005
0
-678
367
3341
-5592
-779
2352
0
0
1.1
0.0
0.2
1.1
0.0
1.4
1.8
0.8
-0.6
4.9
9.9
4.1
7.4
0.1
67.5
0.0
-0.4
2.5
7.8
-7.8
-0.8
-7.3
1.8
9.9
0.2
12.4
0.0
-0.5
0.7
5.9
-12.5
-14.0
12.8
32.4
50.3
23.5
23.3
17.7
5.6
35.5
52.4
26.4
24.9
16.7
8.2
40.4
50.1
31.2
32.3
17.1
15.2
44.9
42.8
39.6
41.8
22.3
19.5
0.3
-0.6
-0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.4
-1.9
0.2
2.0
1.1
0.9
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
4.0
1.9
2.1
0.9
-1.1
-1.0
0.4
0.0
1.2
-1.1
-3.6
0.6
6.6
7.0
6.2
-0.8
-0.9
-0.7
10.5
9.1
12.1
468.6
78.3
325.1
51.4
13.3
0.6
608.4
72.4
461.6
50.8
22.9
0.7
737.7
66.8
587.7
49.8
32.5
0.7
872.3
62.8
718.1
49.5
41.1
0.8
-9.0
-0.2
-9.1
0.6
-0.3
0.0
-18.5
0.3
-18.6
0.9
-1.0
0.0
-29.0
0.5
-28.8
1.0
-1.8
0.0
-1.5
-0.2
-1.9
1.2
-1.5
0.7
-2.4
0.4
-3.1
1.8
-3.0
1.4
-3.2
0.8
-3.9
2.1
-4.2
2.0
Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
510.7
135.1
263.6
102.1
9.0
0.8
Travel per person (km per capita)
6805
6261
8288
10272
12351
-122.1
-257.4
-411.3
-1.5
-2.4
-3.2
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
334.6
119.9
206.8
7.9
305.9
177.1
124.7
4.2
433.2
293.8
135.1
4.3
544.1
397.0
142.5
4.5
635.1
478.4
152.1
4.6
-5.9
-7.1
1.2
0.0
-13.2
-15.0
1.7
0.0
-20.6
-22.5
1.9
0.0
-1.3
-2.4
0.9
0.0
-2.4
-3.6
1.2
0.5
-3.1
-4.5
1.3
0.9
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
1070
816
780
663
576
-10.5
-16.1
-18.6
-1.3
-2.4
-3.1
20592
1591
8290
7093
2096
1190
331
22917
1159
11641
7453
1317
1294
54
31340
1062
14738
12175
1201
2107
56
36633
923
16406
15734
982
2528
61
40561
767
18632
17808
891
2399
64
-570
-2
-256
-289
8
-31
0
-1040
5
-326
-606
9
-122
0
-1535
0
-484
-864
6
-192
0
-1.8
-0.2
-1.7
-2.3
0.6
-1.4
-0.2
-2.8
0.6
-1.9
-3.7
0.9
-4.6
0.3
-3.6
0.0
-2.5
-4.6
0.7
-7.4
0.7
23.9
25.0
31.4
26.7
30.3
29.9
27.4
30.2
25.3
29.1
0.0
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
-0.8
0.3
-1.2
0.3
-1.4
Source: PRIMES
53
EU27: Soaring oil and gas prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
928078
364706
128402
162645
200702
71623
25013
43297
67
145
3101
937145
214324
170011
207644
243761
101405
30483
65264
1913
417
3329
902087
167556
140966
186045
253537
153982
31799
100132
16231
1591
4229
823428
154885
85096
125707
237694
220047
34522
146656
29402
4170
5298
822357
136083
68146
111084
237025
270020
36413
176584
42619
8419
5985
23899
1680
17542
1141
0
3536
82
2979
396
77
3
72359
11895
25924
16181
2002
16357
145
11834
3000
1297
80
89712
4559
18492
21334
15718
29610
2
21218
4488
3798
103
2.7
1.0
14.2
0.6
0.0
2.4
0.3
3.1
2.5
5.1
0.1
9.6
8.3
43.8
14.8
0.8
8.0
0.4
8.8
11.4
45.1
1.5
12.2
3.5
37.2
23.8
7.1
12.3
0.0
13.7
11.8
82.2
1.8
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
749474
81418
529724
503451
26273
135011
3321
817569
98469
525771
507009
18762
191643
1687
1003458
138253
562384
529325
33059
301209
1611
1163700
168408
614336
588305
26031
379377
1579
1185673
214953
606680
586905
19775
362306
1734
-45087
276
-49845
-48099
-1746
4487
-5
-108115
30869
-72107
-69284
-2823
-66870
-7
-129656
30281
-65697
-64266
-1431
-94231
-8
-4.3
0.2
-8.1
-8.3
-5.0
1.5
-0.3
-8.5
22.4
-10.5
-10.5
-9.8
-15.0
-0.4
-9.9
16.4
-9.8
-9.9
-6.7
-20.6
-0.5
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
1645474
450795
624250
294782
200702
3321
71623
1709133
320708
648970
392603
243761
1687
101405
1859019
305809
656824
487255
253537
1611
153982
1936990
323292
649294
505084
237694
1579
220047
1955788
351036
622584
473390
237025
1734
270020
-19433
1956
-30548
5628
0
-5
3536
-32855
42764
-43282
-50689
2002
-7
16357
-36555
34840
-43817
-72897
15718
-8
29610
-1.0
0.6
-4.4
1.2
0.0
-0.3
2.4
-1.7
15.2
-6.2
-9.1
0.8
-0.4
8.0
-1.8
11.0
-6.6
-13.3
7.1
-0.5
12.3
27.4
37.9
17.9
12.2
4.4
18.8
38.0
23.0
14.3
5.9
16.5
35.3
26.2
13.6
8.3
16.7
33.5
26.1
12.3
11.4
17.9
31.8
24.2
12.1
13.8
0.3
-1.3
0.6
0.1
0.3
2.4
-1.6
-2.1
0.3
1.0
2.1
-1.6
-3.2
1.0
1.7
1.7
-3.4
2.2
1.0
3.4
17.2
-4.7
-7.6
2.6
9.9
13.1
-4.8
-11.7
9.1
14.4
2561205
794718
291642
1474844
2993398
944823
376697
1671878
3603573
982718
560062
2060793
4173825
921306
756430
2496089
4588415
918709
954264
2715442
1407
0
5560
-4154
10117
7760
45427
-43071
23998
60921
78835
-115758
0.0
0.0
1.0
-0.2
0.2
0.8
6.4
-1.7
0.5
7.1
9.0
-4.1
384763
261342
56108
54301
10237
2774
0
402753
225135
43691
109769
21219
2939
0
449649
228825
32449
155630
29053
3691
0
489900
254383
23740
150959
56125
4693
0
505104
290295
19906
113803
75728
5372
0
-2780
732
-1330
-1666
-522
6
0
1887
38835
-499
-38265
1730
85
0
-10095
31058
-229
-46500
5465
111
0
-0.6
0.3
-3.9
-1.1
-1.8
0.2
0.4
18.0
-2.1
-20.2
3.2
1.9
-2.0
12.0
-1.1
-29.0
7.8
2.1
840016
673728
2
38458
127829
818581
727122
637
19291
71530
806297
717929
17473
15578
55317
813414
715234
36546
14359
47275
791583
691219
46780
15777
37806
-32693
-33306
570
142
-100
-41544
-45917
5222
443
-1292
-40555
-48009
9410
932
-2888
-3.9
-4.4
3.4
0.9
-0.2
-4.9
-6.0
16.7
3.2
-2.7
-4.9
-6.5
25.2
6.3
-7.1
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
78427
85834
86236
85741
83389
-2350
-3614
-3677
-2.7
-4.0
-4.2
Non-Energy Uses
98844
109187
108909
111201
112079
-1477
-2963
-3509
-1.3
-2.6
-3.0
1071205
1126314
1267813
1365526
1402006
-13347
-31662
-41258
-1.0
-2.3
-2.9
372041
239834
132206
267394
151680
280091
342654
220752
121902
283857
161545
338258
372773
232131
140643
319956
189388
385696
402470
241643
160827
342597
209863
410595
415424
240028
175395
353137
222121
411325
-1298
-1072
-226
-3924
-2513
-5612
-4050
-3127
-923
-10852
-6882
-9877
-6513
-5303
-1210
-14522
-9582
-10642
-0.3
-0.5
-0.2
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.0
-1.3
-0.6
-3.1
-3.2
-2.3
-1.5
-2.2
-0.7
-3.9
-4.1
-2.5
128087
441141
219636
183815
67635
30892
58191
476894
259889
216343
73194
41802
48100
510106
294406
266994
84174
64034
44761
516798
313790
314295
93618
82263
38946
498469
318085
350022
103239
93245
780
-21363
3683
409
251
2893
3150
-32485
-12610
813
1090
8378
2456
-36657
-24794
2129
2006
13602
1.6
-4.0
1.3
0.2
0.3
4.7
7.6
-5.9
-3.9
0.3
1.2
11.3
6.7
-6.9
-7.2
0.6
2.0
17.1
4009.9
1483.5
151.1
761.0
516.6
285.7
812.0
3800.2
1359.8
154.0
594.1
459.7
247.7
984.9
3976.1
1428.1
126.2
599.1
478.7
258.3
1085.7
4064.7
1485.2
106.9
617.1
474.1
264.8
1116.6
4022.3
1529.2
91.2
589.0
454.7
264.1
1094.2
-66.7
-6.0
-7.6
-12.5
-15.1
-7.3
-18.2
-66.9
63.5
-14.8
-21.8
-35.6
-16.4
-41.8
-158.1
14.7
-12.8
-32.5
-48.8
-24.7
-54.0
-1.6
-0.4
-5.7
-2.0
-3.1
-2.7
-1.6
-1.6
4.5
-12.2
-3.4
-7.0
-5.8
-3.6
-3.8
1.0
-12.3
-5.2
-9.7
-8.6
-4.7
100.0
94.8
99.2
101.4
100.3
-1.7
-1.7
-3.9
-1.6
-1.6
-3.8
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
(1)
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
54
EU27: Soaring oil and gas prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
472.712
7358.9
223.6
3.48
5418
2.44
8.48
544.9
44.6
483.520
9001.0
189.9
3.53
6191
2.22
7.86
422.2
46.7
492.838
11044.1
168.3
3.77
7312
2.14
8.07
360.0
52.7
496.408
13825.4
140.1
3.90
8408
2.10
8.19
294.0
58.6
494.784
16315.6
119.9
3.95
9274
2.06
8.13
246.5
59.0
0.000
0.0
-1.8
-0.04
3
-0.01
-0.14
-6.0
-1.8
0.000
0.0
-2.4
-0.07
20
0.00
-0.13
-4.8
-4.3
0.000
0.0
-2.2
-0.07
49
-0.04
-0.32
-9.7
-5.2
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
-0.6
-1.6
-1.6
-3.2
0.0
0.0
-1.7
-1.7
0.2
0.0
-1.6
-1.6
-6.9
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-1.8
0.5
-2.0
-3.8
-3.8
-8.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
80.2
87.2
83.5
98.7
74.2
80.4
77.2
91.8
64.1
69.4
67.5
78.0
56.3
60.8
60.1
66.2
-0.3
-1.0
-1.0
-1.3
-0.6
-2.2
-2.2
-1.9
-0.9
-2.5
-2.6
-1.7
-0.3
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.0
-3.1
-3.2
-2.3
-1.5
-3.9
-4.1
-2.5
0.42
2.22
2.05
1.93
1.88
2.90
0.30
2.03
1.73
1.62
1.53
2.91
0.27
1.91
1.61
1.50
1.36
2.81
0.24
1.81
1.53
1.38
1.26
2.72
0.23
1.71
1.42
1.29
1.19
2.66
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
-0.04
-0.04
-0.06
-0.04
-0.04
0.00
-0.06
-0.06
-0.08
-0.06
-0.06
-0.5
-1.1
-1.7
-1.9
-1.5
-0.2
4.1
-2.3
-2.4
-4.0
-2.8
-1.3
0.1
-3.5
-3.7
-6.0
-4.6
-2.2
697174
145542
105185
12786
176
433485
120284
203503
135927
78309
14723
0
1022
855945
139130
112481
80749
1661
521924
167969
172828
253883
72101
21753
0
1358
1014866
121776
118299
143645
10636
620509
238446
205841
300893
51062
61171
0
1542
1216984
114295
122656
212085
27798
740150
284573
261147
347632
36351
93343
0
1676
6623
0
105
1943
0
4574
4328
2386
-486
2216
457
0
2
31392
1008
418
14690
5771
9506
12729
33806
-28805
1911
2569
0
25
60667
7858
487
27581
17363
7377
10398
29787
-31666
1021
8202
0
33
0.8
0.0
0.1
2.5
0.0
0.9
2.6
1.4
-0.2
3.2
2.1
3.2
0.8
0.4
11.4
118.6
1.6
5.6
19.7
-8.7
3.9
4.4
5.2
7.4
0.4
14.9
166.4
1.0
3.8
12.9
-8.3
2.9
9.6
0.1
1.7
2.0
35.7
49.0
14.9
46.4
31.6
14.9
39.4
48.1
18.7
45.5
27.3
18.3
43.8
46.9
23.5
46.8
22.1
24.7
46.2
43.0
25.6
49.6
20.0
29.6
0.2
-0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.9
-1.4
0.8
1.5
0.1
1.4
-1.0
-2.0
-0.2
3.6
1.2
2.4
0.4
-0.7
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.7
-2.1
-2.9
3.4
3.4
0.6
6.1
-2.2
-4.5
-0.6
7.9
6.5
8.9
5568.5
502.3
4316.4
417.8
298.4
33.6
6512.3
515.6
5048.1
459.8
449.0
39.8
7461.1
505.8
5805.7
497.2
606.5
45.8
8191.8
497.5
6377.7
531.3
735.2
50.1
-83.7
-1.4
-78.3
2.0
-6.0
0.0
-161.3
1.5
-148.1
3.5
-18.4
0.3
-233.1
3.4
-210.1
5.5
-32.4
0.5
-1.3
-0.3
-1.5
0.4
-1.3
0.0
-2.1
0.3
-2.5
0.7
-2.9
0.6
-2.8
0.7
-3.2
1.0
-4.2
1.0
Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4769.3
554.1
3567.1
450.2
168.5
29.4
Travel per person (km per capita)
10089
11517
13214
15030
16556
-169.8
-324.9
-471.2
-1.3
-2.1
-2.8
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
1861.5
1075.1
524.7
261.8
2177.1
1507.0
396.1
274.0
2647.9
1920.7
428.6
298.6
3128.9
2348.3
450.3
330.3
3537.4
2710.0
471.4
356.1
-36.9
-38.3
2.4
-1.0
-73.0
-77.0
3.9
0.1
-108.3
-114.3
5.1
0.9
-1.4
-2.0
0.6
-0.3
-2.3
-3.2
0.9
0.0
-3.0
-4.0
1.1
0.3
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
253
242
240
226
217
-3.3
-5.3
-6.6
-1.4
-2.3
-3.0
280091
8685
139578
85770
9564
29449
7044
338258
7514
160719
109568
9423
45553
5481
385696
7451
171754
137837
8621
53857
6176
410595
6722
171660
159647
6775
59073
6718
411325
5704
163879
170724
6303
57669
7046
-5612
-21
-2180
-2611
9
-770
-38
-9877
17
-2428
-4813
-16
-2619
-18
-10642
-40
-2424
-3956
0
-4224
2
-1.4
-0.3
-1.3
-1.9
0.1
-1.4
-0.6
-2.3
0.2
-1.4
-2.9
-0.2
-4.2
-0.3
-2.5
-0.7
-1.5
-2.3
0.0
-6.8
0.0
38.9
50.8
39.8
53.6
36.9
54.9
32.6
53.5
28.4
50.4
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.4
0.0
-0.4
0.1
-0.5
0.0
0.8
Source: PRIMES
55
EU28: Soaring oil and gas prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
961237
377116
132112
162820
200702
88487
27003
57710
67
173
3534
963855
227617
172757
208170
243761
111549
33138
71804
1916
679
4012
928645
178120
144210
187159
253537
165618
34947
106196
16626
2483
5367
860330
168688
88478
127062
237694
238409
38051
154295
30142
9265
6656
874554
151069
71885
112504
240493
298602
40563
185365
44301
20882
7491
24345
1710
17542
1180
0
3913
82
3029
636
174
-8
74587
12046
25924
16181
2002
18434
145
12035
3000
3216
38
95833
4657
18492
21334
15718
35633
2
21153
4870
9642
-35
2.7
1.0
13.8
0.6
0.0
2.4
0.2
2.9
4.0
7.6
-0.1
9.5
7.7
41.4
14.6
0.8
8.4
0.4
8.5
11.1
53.2
0.6
12.3
3.2
34.6
23.4
7.0
13.6
0.0
12.9
12.4
85.8
-0.5
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
776740
85626
550163
523502
26661
137693
3259
868442
107717
555056
528467
26589
203694
1975
1072277
151134
593778
558493
35285
326070
1295
1263992
184871
662765
633404
29361
415009
1347
1327669
236613
674261
649902
24359
415372
1422
-46857
475
-51436
-49588
-1848
4109
-5
-115224
31498
-75496
-72455
-3041
-71219
-7
-141133
30822
-70039
-68328
-1710
-101907
-8
-4.2
0.3
-8.0
-8.2
-5.0
1.3
-0.4
-8.4
20.5
-10.2
-10.3
-9.4
-14.6
-0.5
-9.6
15.0
-9.4
-9.5
-6.6
-19.7
-0.6
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
1704962
467717
647159
297637
200702
3259
88487
1786487
343986
679975
405241
243761
1975
111549
1953908
329254
690974
513230
253537
1295
165618
2073565
353559
700487
542071
237694
1347
238409
2149233
387683
693157
527876
240493
1422
298602
-20746
2185
-32128
5288
0
-5
3913
-37715
43544
-46650
-55039
2002
-7
18434
-41879
35479
-48126
-80574
15718
-8
35633
-1.1
0.7
-4.4
1.0
0.0
-0.4
2.4
-1.8
14.0
-6.2
-9.2
0.8
-0.5
8.4
-1.9
10.1
-6.5
-13.2
7.0
-0.6
13.6
27.4
38.0
17.5
11.8
5.2
19.3
38.1
22.7
13.6
6.2
16.9
35.4
26.3
13.0
8.5
17.1
33.8
26.1
11.5
11.5
18.0
32.3
24.6
11.2
13.9
0.3
-1.3
0.5
0.1
0.3
2.4
-1.6
-2.1
0.3
1.1
2.0
-1.6
-3.2
0.9
1.9
1.7
-3.4
2.1
1.1
3.5
16.1
-4.5
-7.6
2.7
10.4
12.2
-4.7
-11.6
9.1
15.8
2618738
794718
314786
1509233
3118298
944823
407604
1765871
3777233
982718
601253
2193262
4431577
921306
806109
2704163
4984515
932153
1023353
3029009
2131
0
8351
-6221
9055
7760
45427
-44133
20618
60921
84371
-124674
0.1
0.0
1.4
-0.3
0.2
0.8
6.0
-1.6
0.4
7.0
9.0
-4.0
393649
266482
57294
56793
10237
2842
0
424378
235098
46624
118348
21304
3004
0
476781
238955
34284
170107
29551
3884
0
527085
271881
24735
168281
57301
4886
0
556760
316719
20689
135819
77875
5658
0
-3377
732
-1438
-2155
-522
6
0
-447
37256
-600
-38917
1730
85
0
-12141
29713
-356
-47579
5970
111
0
-0.7
0.3
-4.0
-1.3
-1.7
0.2
-0.1
15.9
-2.4
-18.8
3.1
1.8
-2.1
10.4
-1.7
-25.9
8.3
2.0
867592
696742
2
38458
132391
846345
750941
637
19291
75474
842068
750341
17566
15615
58546
865154
763715
36862
14498
50078
862078
757955
47883
16024
40216
-34182
-34795
573
143
-104
-44746
-49089
5264
455
-1377
-44563
-52072
9588
961
-3040
-3.9
-4.4
3.4
0.9
-0.2
-4.9
-6.0
16.7
3.2
-2.7
-4.9
-6.4
25.0
6.4
-7.0
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
80396
88538
89128
89481
88203
-2437
-3832
-3887
-2.7
-4.1
-4.2
101612
112692
112234
115071
116491
-1543
-3079
-3636
-1.4
-2.6
-3.0
1109885
1180941
1340956
1477251
1563372
-14103
-34031
-45149
-1.0
-2.3
-2.8
384219
245670
138549
281949
154275
289441
363322
228215
135107
300854
166339
350426
399857
240386
159471
339095
197972
404033
443128
251960
191168
369987
223221
440915
476460
253165
223296
390423
241009
455480
-1390
-1127
-264
-4223
-2635
-5855
-4184
-3246
-939
-11823
-7351
-10673
-7369
-5565
-1804
-17277
-8502
-12000
-0.3
-0.5
-0.2
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-0.9
-1.3
-0.5
-3.1
-3.2
-2.4
-1.5
-2.2
-0.8
-4.2
-3.4
-2.6
136126
458929
220792
187680
67875
38483
68674
499706
264489
224587
74443
49041
59778
538922
306499
279349
84992
71418
56089
563228
333997
333862
95141
94934
47877
564130
350721
380160
107214
113270
1012
-22695
3785
481
284
3030
5523
-35619
-16311
815
1112
10449
4394
-40723
-31298
1920
1966
18593
1.7
-4.0
1.3
0.2
0.3
4.4
10.9
-5.9
-4.7
0.2
1.2
12.4
10.1
-6.7
-8.2
0.5
1.9
19.6
4136.3
1515.0
155.8
796.2
538.0
291.5
839.9
3998.9
1431.1
159.9
650.1
481.6
255.8
1020.5
4220.7
1509.9
127.9
671.2
503.3
269.6
1139.0
4410.9
1601.3
107.4
715.9
509.4
273.2
1203.6
4489.9
1691.6
91.6
719.6
503.0
265.2
1218.8
-71.2
-7.5
-7.7
-13.1
-16.0
-8.0
-18.9
-83.8
55.6
-14.9
-19.6
-38.7
-22.0
-44.2
-186.0
6.8
-12.8
-32.3
-54.1
-35.2
-58.4
-1.7
-0.5
-5.7
-1.9
-3.1
-2.9
-1.6
-1.9
3.6
-12.2
-2.7
-7.1
-7.5
-3.5
-4.0
0.4
-12.3
-4.3
-9.7
-11.7
-4.6
100.0
96.7
102.0
106.6
108.5
-1.7
-2.0
-4.5
-1.7
-1.9
-4.0
(1)
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
56
EU28: Soaring oil and gas prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
528.913
7511.4
227.0
3.22
4951
2.43
7.82
550.7
44.6
550.981
9217.8
193.8
3.24
5660
2.24
7.26
433.8
47.5
569.992
11370.5
171.8
3.43
6627
2.16
7.40
371.2
53.6
582.152
14408.7
143.9
3.56
7612
2.13
7.58
306.1
59.5
587.546
17374.7
123.7
3.66
8484
2.09
7.64
258.4
60.3
0.000
0.0
-1.8
-0.04
4
-0.01
-0.12
-6.3
-1.7
0.000
0.0
-2.6
-0.06
16
0.00
-0.14
-5.8
-4.2
0.000
0.0
-2.4
-0.07
35
-0.04
-0.32
-10.7
-5.1
0.0
0.0
-1.1
-1.1
0.1
-0.6
-1.7
-1.7
-3.1
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-1.8
0.2
-0.1
-1.9
-1.9
-6.6
0.0
0.0
-1.9
-1.9
0.4
-2.1
-4.0
-4.0
-7.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
81.8
87.3
84.3
98.7
75.7
80.1
78.7
92.2
65.9
69.6
69.2
79.4
58.5
61.0
61.6
68.0
-0.3
-1.0
-1.0
-1.3
-0.6
-2.2
-2.3
-1.9
-0.9
-2.7
-2.2
-1.8
-0.3
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-0.9
-3.1
-3.2
-2.4
-1.5
-4.2
-3.4
-2.6
0.42
2.22
2.07
1.91
1.89
2.90
0.30
2.04
1.79
1.60
1.54
2.91
0.27
1.93
1.68
1.48
1.36
2.82
0.25
1.83
1.62
1.38
1.22
2.73
0.24
1.73
1.51
1.29
1.10
2.68
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
-0.04
-0.03
-0.06
-0.06
-0.03
0.00
-0.06
-0.04
-0.08
-0.10
-0.06
-0.6
-1.1
-1.6
-1.9
-1.6
-0.2
3.3
-2.2
-1.7
-4.1
-4.4
-1.2
-0.3
-3.5
-2.8
-5.7
-8.6
-2.1
725459
145542
116592
12806
176
450343
122684
210547
143140
80801
14814
0
1040
896383
139130
124039
82300
1661
549254
172887
183592
266508
75613
22114
0
1426
1074933
121776
130582
146971
10667
664937
248774
219688
328394
53098
62147
0
1610
1311326
116009
136305
223999
28663
806350
302183
288143
382568
38260
95612
0
1768
7561
0
105
2880
0
4575
4324
3058
-1100
2158
457
0
2
36848
1008
418
14690
5771
14962
13034
34998
-24403
1853
2489
0
25
66201
7858
487
31744
18080
8031
10321
30640
-31850
963
8245
0
33
0.9
0.0
0.1
3.6
0.0
0.8
2.6
1.7
-0.4
2.9
2.1
3.5
0.8
0.3
11.1
117.9
2.3
5.5
18.9
-6.9
3.6
4.2
5.3
7.3
0.4
16.5
170.8
1.0
3.5
11.9
-7.7
2.6
9.4
0.1
1.6
1.9
35.8
49.1
14.8
45.6
30.3
15.3
39.6
48.1
18.3
44.6
26.0
18.5
44.1
47.1
23.2
45.3
20.8
24.5
46.8
43.4
25.1
47.5
18.7
28.8
0.2
-0.4
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.7
-1.6
0.8
1.5
0.1
1.3
-0.9
-2.1
-0.2
3.6
1.1
2.4
0.4
-0.8
0.3
0.4
-0.1
1.0
-1.5
-3.2
3.6
3.4
0.6
5.8
-1.9
-4.7
-0.7
8.1
6.5
9.1
5752.9
589.7
4397.4
423.6
304.7
37.4
6810.3
617.3
5219.2
468.3
460.4
45.0
8089.8
627.9
6251.2
517.8
637.2
55.7
9228.5
611.0
7186.1
570.7
797.0
63.7
-86.9
-1.3
-81.4
2.0
-6.2
0.0
-175.1
2.4
-161.8
3.4
-19.4
0.3
-265.9
4.8
-241.5
5.4
-35.1
0.6
-1.3
-0.2
-1.5
0.4
-1.3
0.0
-2.1
0.4
-2.5
0.7
-3.0
0.5
-2.8
0.8
-3.3
1.0
-4.2
0.9
Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
4881.2
618.4
3601.6
456.6
170.7
33.9
9229
10441
11948
13896
15707
-152.5
-300.8
-452.6
-1.3
-2.1
-2.8
1958.3
1159.5
532.6
266.3
2352.3
1668.6
405.9
277.8
2906.9
2162.5
440.5
303.9
3530.0
2723.1
468.8
338.1
4106.5
3242.5
497.8
366.2
-40.4
-41.8
2.4
-1.1
-82.0
-86.1
3.9
0.1
-124.9
-131.0
5.1
0.9
-1.4
-1.9
0.6
-0.4
-2.3
-3.1
0.8
0.0
-3.0
-3.9
1.0
0.3
261
255
256
245
236
-3.6
-5.7
-7.2
-1.4
-2.3
-3.0
289441
9634
140266
92511
9807
29928
7295
350426
8758
162549
116941
9691
46814
5673
404033
8892
175245
148855
8889
55710
6443
440915
8359
179714
175821
7065
62794
7163
455480
7098
178237
192129
6734
63655
7627
-5855
-18
-2239
-2764
7
-802
-39
-10673
31
-2621
-5183
-19
-2863
-18
-12000
-21
-2740
-4590
-7
-4646
4
-1.4
-0.2
-1.3
-1.8
0.1
-1.4
-0.6
-2.4
0.4
-1.4
-2.9
-0.3
-4.4
-0.3
-2.6
-0.3
-1.5
-2.3
-0.1
-6.8
0.0
38.5
51.8
39.3
52.8
36.3
53.9
31.8
52.0
27.7
48.7
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.4
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.7
Source: PRIMES
57
Europe-30: Soaring oil and gas prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
1091087
377317
216359
186970
206883
103557
40003
59720
67
173
3595
1200143
228042
337714
253987
250675
129725
48250
74749
1919
703
4103
1185159
178648
276504
283604
260539
185864
50026
110757
17114
2512
5455
1126629
169202
236401
215071
244836
261119
54469
159851
30746
9307
6746
1087915
151569
182630
182054
249016
322645
57509
191386
45226
20948
7576
26829
1704
18298
2630
0
4196
83
3179
768
176
-9
66737
12233
49528
-15964
2002
18938
182
12485
3017
3221
33
78496
4854
47401
-27042
17253
36030
39
21476
4906
9649
-40
2.3
1.0
7.1
0.9
0.0
2.3
0.2
3.0
4.7
7.5
-0.2
6.3
7.8
26.5
-6.9
0.8
7.8
0.3
8.5
10.9
52.9
0.5
7.8
3.3
35.1
-12.9
7.4
12.6
0.1
12.6
12.2
85.4
-0.5
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
695727
86632
490237
458354
31883
117149
1710
684878
108508
412700
384418
28282
163941
-272
873917
151898
483540
446204
37336
238589
-110
1057726
185662
536596
505390
31206
335447
21
1174193
237506
583929
558406
25523
352718
40
-49817
425
-53124
-51178
-1946
2887
-5
-108902
31752
-100080
-96770
-3310
-40567
-7
-125205
31292
-100328
-98256
-2072
-56160
-9
-5.4
0.3
-9.9
-10.3
-5.0
1.2
4.8
-9.3
20.6
-15.7
-16.1
-9.6
-10.8
-24.8
-9.6
15.2
-14.7
-15.0
-7.5
-13.7
-17.7
Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
1751588
468937
669257
301245
206883
1710
103557
1839144
345317
702393
411306
250675
-272
129725
2011021
330546
711989
522194
260539
-110
185864
2132344
354864
720985
550518
244836
21
261119
2207663
389076
712114
534773
249016
40
322645
-21204
2129
-33041
5517
0
-5
4196
-39204
43985
-47592
-56530
2002
-7
18938
-43232
36146
-49450
-83202
17253
-9
36030
-1.0
0.6
-4.4
1.1
0.0
4.8
2.3
-1.8
14.1
-6.2
-9.3
0.8
-24.8
7.8
-1.9
10.2
-6.5
-13.5
7.4
-17.7
12.6
26.8
38.2
17.2
11.8
5.9
18.8
38.2
22.4
13.6
7.1
16.4
35.4
26.0
13.0
9.2
16.6
33.8
25.8
11.5
12.2
17.6
32.3
24.2
11.3
14.6
0.3
-1.3
0.5
0.1
0.3
2.3
-1.6
-2.1
0.3
1.1
1.9
-1.6
-3.2
1.0
1.9
1.7
-3.4
2.1
1.1
3.4
16.2
-4.5
-7.6
2.7
9.8
12.4
-4.7
-11.8
9.5
14.8
2794856
818651
465941
1510263
3323905
971593
583374
1768938
3995231
1009830
782291
2203111
4672742
948963
1004116
2719663
5240531
965153
1231316
3044062
3642
0
9897
-6254
10402
7760
46043
-43401
22894
66866
85211
-129183
0.1
0.0
1.3
-0.3
0.2
0.8
4.8
-1.6
0.4
7.4
7.4
-4.1
394358
266510
57394
56913
10698
2842
0
425676
235114
46636
118562
22359
3004
0
479175
239150
34444
171008
30689
3884
0
530582
271903
24803
169109
59881
4886
0
560482
316719
20745
135869
81491
5658
0
-3411
732
-1438
-2123
-588
6
0
-296
37256
-600
-39024
1987
85
0
-12754
29713
-366
-48182
5970
111
0
-0.7
0.3
-4.0
-1.2
-1.9
0.2
-0.1
15.9
-2.4
-18.7
3.4
1.8
-2.2
10.4
-1.7
-26.2
7.9
2.0
884427
713481
2
38512
132432
866713
771184
637
19379
75512
861977
769595
17914
15897
58571
885820
783029
37798
14894
50099
882532
776694
49129
16484
40226
-34974
-35598
585
143
-104
-45287
-49781
5399
475
-1379
-45298
-53074
9816
1004
-3044
-3.9
-4.4
3.4
0.9
-0.2
-4.9
-6.0
16.7
3.3
-2.7
-4.9
-6.4
25.0
6.5
-7.0
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
83789
92950
93786
93188
91058
-2428
-4612
-4765
-2.5
-4.7
-5.0
103762
115166
114411
117152
118601
-1576
-3139
-3710
-1.4
-2.6
-3.0
1145388
1220510
1384508
1523228
1609380
-14513
-34941
-46393
-1.0
-2.2
-2.8
394004
252212
141792
290806
160718
299860
375356
236839
138517
310280
172911
361964
412415
249314
163102
349200
206059
416833
456817
261530
195287
380498
231891
454022
490591
262813
227778
400918
249949
467921
-1390
-1122
-268
-4376
-2727
-6020
-4216
-3264
-953
-12149
-7603
-10972
-7438
-5614
-1824
-17639
-8796
-12519
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-0.9
-1.2
-0.5
-3.1
-3.2
-2.4
-1.5
-2.1
-0.8
-4.2
-3.4
-2.6
137278
477192
222317
200044
68198
40359
69933
518412
266915
238509
75229
51512
60779
557473
310548
295030
85982
74695
57231
581513
338420
351690
96685
97688
49100
580852
355114
399287
109516
115511
970
-23456
3854
605
298
3216
5901
-36795
-16758
929
1189
10594
4960
-42277
-32144
2105
2110
18853
1.6
-4.0
1.3
0.2
0.3
4.5
11.5
-6.0
-4.7
0.3
1.2
12.2
11.2
-6.8
-8.3
0.5
2.0
19.5
4207.7
1515.7
163.4
807.4
551.3
300.2
869.6
4076.8
1431.7
170.4
663.2
493.5
264.5
1053.4
4303.0
1513.6
137.6
682.4
515.0
279.6
1174.8
4490.7
1604.3
114.8
729.6
519.9
282.8
1239.3
4561.8
1693.1
97.0
733.8
511.8
274.3
1251.8
-73.5
-7.5
-7.7
-13.7
-16.7
-8.5
-19.4
-88.7
55.4
-16.6
-19.5
-39.8
-22.9
-45.4
-193.6
5.6
-14.8
-32.3
-55.4
-36.2
-60.5
-1.7
-0.5
-5.3
-2.0
-3.1
-2.9
-1.6
-1.9
3.6
-12.6
-2.6
-7.1
-7.5
-3.5
-4.1
0.3
-13.2
-4.2
-9.8
-11.7
-4.6
100.0
96.9
102.3
106.7
108.4
-1.7
-2.1
-4.6
-1.7
-1.9
-4.1
(1)
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
58
Europe-30: Soaring oil and gas prices case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
2010
2020
2030
% Diff. from Baseline
539.950
7877.3
222.4
3.24
5176
2.40
7.79
534.2
38.9
562.681
9665.6
190.3
3.27
5907
2.22
7.25
421.8
36.4
582.130
11898.8
169.0
3.45
6863
2.14
7.39
361.6
42.4
594.587
15057.8
141.6
3.59
7859
2.11
7.55
298.2
48.4
600.252
18137.4
121.7
3.68
8731
2.07
7.60
251.5
51.9
0.000
0.0
-1.8
-0.04
6
-0.01
-0.13
-6.2
-1.9
0.000
0.0
-2.6
-0.07
17
0.00
-0.15
-5.9
-4.0
0.000
0.0
-2.4
-0.07
38
-0.05
-0.32
-10.7
-4.4
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
0.1
-0.6
-1.7
-1.7
-4.3
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-1.8
0.2
-0.1
-1.9
-1.9
-7.6
0.0
0.0
-1.9
-1.9
0.4
-2.2
-4.1
-4.1
-7.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
81.7
87.4
84.5
98.4
75.6
80.1
79.1
92.0
65.8
69.5
69.5
79.2
58.4
60.9
61.8
67.8
-0.3
-1.0
-1.0
-1.3
-0.6
-2.2
-2.3
-1.9
-0.9
-2.7
-2.2
-1.8
-0.3
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-0.9
-3.1
-3.2
-2.4
-1.5
-4.2
-3.4
-2.6
0.40
2.21
2.05
1.90
1.87
2.90
0.29
2.03
1.77
1.59
1.53
2.91
0.26
1.92
1.65
1.47
1.36
2.82
0.24
1.82
1.60
1.37
1.22
2.73
0.23
1.72
1.50
1.28
1.10
2.68
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
-0.04
-0.03
-0.06
-0.06
-0.03
0.00
-0.06
-0.04
-0.08
-0.10
-0.06
-0.6
-1.1
-1.6
-1.9
-1.7
-0.2
3.2
-2.2
-1.7
-4.1
-4.5
-1.2
-0.4
-3.5
-2.8
-5.8
-8.6
-2.1
769539
148992
155831
12886
195
451636
123656
210703
143723
80968
15202
0
1040
946000
142580
165323
84405
1705
551987
174112
183686
268400
75756
22719
0
1426
1128537
125226
173781
149772
10777
668980
251107
219704
330486
53165
64015
0
1610
1368749
120193
179874
228108
28895
811679
305808
288143
384467
38321
98980
0
1768
8191
0
107
3444
0
4640
4322
3058
-1037
2158
459
0
2
37297
1008
466
14755
5771
15298
13568
34998
-24420
1854
2842
0
25
67190
8618
535
31884
18080
8072
10560
30640
-31867
964
8302
0
33
0.9
0.0
0.1
4.3
0.0
0.8
2.5
1.7
-0.4
2.9
2.1
3.4
0.8
0.3
10.9
115.3
2.3
5.7
18.9
-6.9
3.6
4.6
5.2
7.7
0.3
16.2
167.2
1.0
3.6
11.9
-7.7
2.6
9.2
0.1
1.6
1.9
35.7
49.3
14.0
48.9
29.2
19.6
39.5
48.2
17.4
47.4
25.3
22.1
44.1
47.3
22.2
48.0
20.3
27.7
46.7
43.7
24.1
50.1
18.4
31.6
0.2
-0.4
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.7
-1.5
0.8
1.4
0.1
1.3
-0.9
-2.1
-0.1
3.5
1.2
2.3
0.4
-0.8
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.9
-1.5
-3.1
3.8
3.1
0.6
4.9
-1.9
-4.5
-0.6
7.5
7.0
7.8
5925.5
596.9
4530.1
443.8
316.3
38.4
7009.1
625.5
5370.5
491.4
475.5
46.2
8308.7
636.7
6416.8
542.7
655.5
57.0
9458.0
620.2
7359.2
596.5
817.0
65.1
-89.2
-1.3
-83.6
2.2
-6.4
0.0
-179.3
2.4
-165.8
3.8
-19.9
0.3
-271.7
4.8
-247.0
5.9
-36.0
0.6
-1.3
-0.2
-1.5
0.4
-1.3
0.0
-2.1
0.4
-2.5
0.7
-3.0
0.5
-2.8
0.8
-3.2
1.0
-4.2
0.9
Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
5032.5
625.6
3720.2
473.5
178.7
34.5
9320
10531
12041
13974
15757
-153.2
-301.6
-452.7
-1.3
-2.1
-2.8
2026.8
1179.2
544.1
303.5
2447.9
1705.6
419.3
323.0
3018.4
2213.1
456.3
348.9
3659.4
2790.8
485.4
383.2
4248.6
3325.8
514.6
408.3
-41.6
-42.7
2.5
-1.5
-84.2
-88.1
4.1
-0.3
-128.3
-134.3
5.4
0.6
-1.4
-1.9
0.6
-0.4
-2.3
-3.1
0.8
-0.1
-2.9
-3.9
1.1
0.2
257
253
254
243
234
-3.5
-5.6
-7.1
-1.4
-2.3
-2.9
299860
9802
145794
94266
10142
31627
8229
361964
8917
168062
119351
10079
49160
6394
416833
9069
180975
152169
9287
58160
7172
454022
8531
185079
180029
7390
65107
7885
467921
7249
182882
196793
7023
65681
8293
-6020
-18
-2304
-2817
7
-843
-45
-10972
32
-2689
-5293
-18
-2979
-23
-12519
-22
-3028
-4661
-7
-4799
-1
-1.4
-0.2
-1.3
-1.8
0.1
-1.4
-0.6
-2.4
0.4
-1.4
-2.9
-0.2
-4.4
-0.3
-2.6
-0.3
-1.6
-2.3
-0.1
-6.8
0.0
38.9
51.4
39.6
52.0
36.5
53.3
31.9
51.5
27.7
48.4
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.4
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.5
-0.1
0.7
Source: PRIMES
59
(1) EUROSTAT Energy Balances do not take into account non-marketed steam, i.e. steam generated - either in boilers or in CHP plants - and used on site by industrial consumers.
Using statistical information provided by EUROSTAT on CHP, the non-marketed steam generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel input have been estimated for
this study. In the PRIMES model, steam has been attributed to the demand side and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach ensures a better comparability of historical
figures with the projections. However, slight differences exist for certain figures related to steam generation - both in terms of final energy demand and transformation input - in
this report compared to EUROSTAT energy balances.
Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and
Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their
individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly
relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences
should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport,
which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km.
Abbreviations
GIC: Gross Inland Consumption
CHP: combined heat and power
Geographical regions
EU15: EU15 Member States
EU25: EU15 Member States + New Member States
NMS: New Member States (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia)
EU27: EU25 Member States + Bulgaria + Romania
EU28: EU27 + Turkey
Europe 30: EU28 + Norway + Switzerland
Units
toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule)
Mtoe: million toe
GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt
kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour
MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour
TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour
t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes
Mt: Million metric tonnes
km: kilometre
pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre)
tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre)
Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre
Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre
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