New York State Capacity Market Review prepared for American Public Power Association National Rural Electric Cooperative Association New York Association of Public Power prepared by Laurence D. Kirsch Mathew J. Morey Christensen Associates Energy Consulting LLC September 19, 2012 Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 800 University Bay Drive, Suite 400 Madison, WI 53705-2299 Voice 608.231.2266 Fax 608.231.2108 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................ii I. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 II. Background ............................................................................................................................... 3 A. Institutional Framework for Assuring Resource Adequacy .......................................... 3 B. Evolution of Institutional Responsibility for Resource Adequacy ................................ 5 III. New York Generation Investment History ................................................................................ 6 A. Generation Investment, 2000 to 2012 ......................................................................... 7 B. Generation Investment, 2000 to 2005 ....................................................................... 10 C. Generation Investment, 2006 to 2012 ....................................................................... 14 D. Planned Generation Additions .................................................................................... 16 E. Fuel Diversity............................................................................................................... 21 F. Geographic Dispersion: “Where It’s Needed Most” ................................................... 23 G. Reliability..................................................................................................................... 24 IV. Drivers of Generation Investment in New York ...................................................................... 27 A. Non-Market Standards ............................................................................................... 27 1. Obligations to Serve ........................................................................................ 27 2. Reliability Standards ....................................................................................... 27 3. Renewable Portfolio Standards ...................................................................... 28 4. Environmental Regulations ............................................................................. 30 B. Market Incentives ....................................................................................................... 30 1. Short-Term Markets........................................................................................ 31 2. Long-Term Markets......................................................................................... 33 3. Short-Term vs. Long-Term Markets ................................................................ 33 4. Capacity Markets ............................................................................................ 34 V. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 35 Attachment A. New York Generation Brought In-Service, 2000–2012 ....................................... 36 Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC i 9/19/12 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY New York State’s electricity sector restructuring of the late 1990s included divestiture by the State’s electric utilities of their generating assets, establishment of the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), and creation of competitive retail markets. Under these new circumstances, New York State has engaged the question of how best to ensure that investment in new generating capacity is sufficient to: 1) maintain reliability as demand grows and as older, uneconomic generating units are retired and 2) support workably competitive retail and wholesale electricity markets. The debate has focused on the value of replacing the existing voluntary short-term forward capacity market with a mandatory longterm forward capacity market that would be similar to those in PJM and ISO-New England.1 Generation investment in New York is driven by both non-market standards and by market incentives. The non-market standards, many of which are set by non-NYISO institutions, include obligations to serve, reliability standards, renewable portfolio standards, and environmental regulations. Market incentives are provided by the revenues that can be gained or the costs that can be avoided: a) in NYISO-administered short-term markets for energy, ancillary services, and capacity; b) through long-term bilateral transactions; and c) through self-supply or ownership of generation. Thus, the NYISO-administered markets are only one part of the overall framework for providing generation capacity and assuring reliability. The history behind each of the generating units placed in service in New York since 1999 indicates the following: A mixture of bilateral PPAs, merchant plant investments, utility-owned supply, and renewable resources, including those encouraged by federal tax incentives and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) has provided adequate generation resources to satisfy growing electricity demand, provide reliable electric power service, and meet environmental public policy goals. The voluntary centralized capacity market administered by NYISO has provided a workable complement to the bilateral market, utility-owned supply, and NYSERDAand federal tax-supported renewable resources. The historical evidence of capacity investments over the past twelve years and the proposed capacity investments over the next four years indicate that New York State’s present capacity market structure has provided sufficient generation capacity and promises to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. 1 The New York State capacity market in this paper refers to utility-owned supply, bilateral contracts between utilities and merchant plant developers, merchant plants that rely on the New York ISO’s capacity and its other centrally administered markets for revenues, and renewable resources that may enter bilateral contracts or operate as pure merchant plants, but are also funded in part by New York State and federal incentives, such as the federal Production Tax Credit. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC ii 9/19/12 Consequently, there is no need to fix what is not broken. The existing capacity market structure has provided generation capacity where it is most highly valued, using diverse fuels and meeting a variety of renewable resources and environmental policy goals. This success has been achieved without resorting to a mandatory forward market such as those used by PJM and ISO-New England. The current design does not require replacement by a mandatory forward centralized capacity market. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC iii 9/19/12 New York State Capacity Market Review I. INTRODUCTION Beginning in the mid-1990s, New York State’s electricity industry underwent dramatic changes in the institutional structure of its retail and wholesale markets. Precipitated by the New York Public Service Commission’s (NYPSC) restructuring order of 1996,2 these changes included divestiture by the State’s electric utilities of their generating assets, establishment of the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as successor to the New York Power Pool, and creation of competitive retail markets.3 As a consequence, New York State has engaged in a long-standing debate about how best to ensure that investment in new generating capacity is sufficient to: 1) maintain reliability as demand grows and as older, uneconomic generating units are retired and 2) support workably competitive retail and wholesale electricity markets. The resource adequacy debate in New York State, which parallels the debate held in other regions of the country where restructuring of retail and wholesale markets has taken place, centers on the question of what changes, if any, need to be made to institutional and market arrangements to induce investments in new generating capacity to ensure resource adequacy. On the institutional side of the question, suggestions in the mid-2000s that the State once again play a larger role in resource planning,4 a function it had performed through the New York State Energy Office prior to restructuring, were implemented in 2009 in the form of the State Energy Planning Board.5 As it stands now, long-term resource planning is a combination of planning efforts by the State’s public power utilities with obligations to serve, the NYISO, which manages the Comprehensive System Planning Process (CSPP), and as part of that conducts the Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA).6 2 New York Public Service Commission, Competitive Opportunities Regarding Electric Service, No. 94-E-0952, March 6, 1996. 3 The NYPSC’s stated objective was to “identify regulatory and ratemaking practices that will assist in the transition to a more competitive electric industry designed to increase efficiency in the provision of electricity while maintaining safety, environmental, affordability, and service quality goals.” Id. p. 4. 4 Committee on Energy, The Association Of The Bar Of The City Of New York, Electric Regulation In The State Of New York, February 9, 2007, pp. 25-26, (“Committee on Energy Report”). 5 In 2009, the New York legislature passed Article 6 of the New York State Energy Law (Section 6-108) that statutorily established the State Energy Planning Board (Board) and requires the Board complete a State Energy Plan on or before March 15, 2013. 6 As NYISO states: “The Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA) is developed … as its first step in the Comprehensive System Planning Process (CSPP)…. The RNA is performed to evaluate electric system reliability, for both transmission security and resource adequacy, over a ten-year study period. If the RNA identifies any violation of Reliability Criteria for Bulk Power Transmission Facilities (BPTF) the NYISO will report a Reliability Need, quantified by an amount of compensatory megawatts (MW) and/or megavars (MVAr). In addition, after approval of the RNA, the NYISO will request market-based and alternative regulated proposals from interested parties to address the identified Reliability Needs, and designate one or more Responsible Transmission Owners to develop a Regulated Backstop Solution to address each identified need.” Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 1 9/19/12 On the market side of the question, the debate has focused on the value of replacing the existing voluntary short-term forward capacity market with a mandatory long-term forward capacity market that would be similar to those administered by PJM and ISO New England.7 Proponents of this approach believe that investment in merchant plants has been limited by investors’ reluctance to finance new plants without long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with load-serving entities (LSEs).8 On this view, the introduction of a mandatory longterm forward capacity market would help to bridge the gap between a short-term spot capacity market and the long-term bilateral capacity market. The debate’s intensity has varied over time according to the results of the most recent projections of resource adequacy. Such projections have varied significantly over time going from critical impending shortages to long-term sufficiency. For example, the NYISO’s initial RNA in December 2005 suggested that the State’s transmission and generation resources would be adequate only through 2007.9 The NYISO quickly revised this estimate the very next year in its Comprehensive Reliability Plan, which projected a reliability need emerging by 2011.10 In contrast, Con Edison, in a November 2005 assessment, projected a system reliability need by 2012.11 The NYISO’s most recent assessment projects a reliability-related resource adequacy need no sooner than 2020.12 The inevitable cyclicality associated with generation investment engenders a “boom-bust” outcome in reliability needs assessment studies that, on the one hand, leads to calls for institutional and market reforms to incent generation investment, and, on the other hand, suggests that the existing processes and structures have delivered new generation resources when and where they were needed. Consequently, the question arises as to just how well New York State’s existing capacity market structure has performed over the past decade in providing needed new capacity. To shed light on the success of the existing structure, this report examines the types and quantities of investment in generation capacity in New York State since 1999, with a focus on the motivations for that investment. In particular, it examines the relative extent to which the market for bilateral contracts and the role of self-owned generation, as supplemented by the 7 The New York State capacity market in this paper refers to utility-owned supply, bilateral contracts between utilities and merchant plant developers, merchant plants that rely on the New York ISO’s capacity and its other centrally administered markets for revenues, and renewable resources that may enter bilateral contracts or operate as pure merchant plants, but are also funded in part by New York State and federal incentives, such as the federal Production Tax Credit. 8 Committee on Energy Report, p. 12. 9 New York ISO, Comprehensive Reliability Planning Process Draft Reliability Needs Assessment, November 22, 2005. 10 New York ISO, The Comprehensive Reliability Plan for 2005: A Long-term Reliability Assessment of New York’s Power System, August 22, 2006. 11 Consolidated Edison Company of New York, System Reliability Assurance Study, December 30, 2005. 12 New York ISO, 2012 Reliability Needs Assessment, Draft of August 28, 2012. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 2 9/19/12 NYISO’s voluntary installed capacity (ICAP) market, have worked together to meet New York’s resource adequacy requirements over the period 2000 to 2012. To review the history behind each of the generating units placed in service during this period, we looked at generators’ applications for certificates of environmental compliance, and at various other public records.13 Our main findings are as follows: Over past decades and up to the present, a mixture of bilateral PPAs, merchant plant investments, utility-owned supply, and renewable resources encouraged by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and by federal tax incentives has provided adequate generation resources to satisfy growing electricity demand, provide reliable electric power service, and meet environmental public policy goals. The voluntary centralized capacity market administered by NYISO has provided a workable complement to the bilateral market, utility-owned supply, and publicly supported renewable resources. The historical evidence of capacity investments over the past twelve years and the proposed capacity investments over the next four years indicate that New York State’s present capacity market structure, combined with self-builds, long-term contracts, and NYSERDA support and federal tax incentives for renewables, has provided sufficient generation capacity and promises to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Consequently, there is no need to fix what is not broken. The report is organized as follows. Section II provides institutional background on the framework and the evolution of the responsibility for assuring resource adequacy in New York State. Section III summarizes New York’s generation investment history over the period 2000 to 2012 as well as planned investment from 2012 to 2016. Section IV provides discussion of the various factors driving investment in generation in general and in New York in particular. Section V offers conclusions. II. BACKGROUND This section discusses the various institutions that are responsible for determining New York’s ICAP requirements, the rules established by those institutions, and the history by which those rules were established. A. Institutional Framework for Assuring Resource Adequacy “Resource adequacy” is the ability of an electric system’s generation resources to reliably meet the aggregate electrical demand, energy, and reserve requirements of customers at all times, taking into account scheduled and reasonably expected unscheduled outages of system 13 Other public records include news releases about generation development as well as various reports by NYISO, NYSERDA, New York Power Authority (NYPA), Long Island Power Authority (LIPA), and NYPSC. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 3 9/19/12 facilities. In the context of this report, “resource adequacy” does not refer to the adequacy of transmission resources, though the term does encompass consideration of whether the services provided by generation resources are deliverable to customers given the configuration of the transmission system. The institutions that are responsible for assuring resource adequacy in New York State include the New York State Reliability Council (NYSRC), the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), NYISO, the NYPSC, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). These institutions and the rules and requirements they establish create significant regulatory and legal forces to ensure resource adequacy in New York State. Many of these rules and requirements pre-date the establishment of the NYISO and exist outside of the NYISO’s ICAP market structure. Furthermore, as the NYSRC manual explains, the NYISO’s reliability role is to facilitate the attainment of those resource standards established by other institutions: The New York Independent System Operator… is required to comply with all of the Reliability Rules. To the extent that Market Participant action is necessary to implement a Reliability Rule, a requirement for such action is included in the NYISO procedures, which are binding on all Market Participants.14 Resource adequacy requirements in New York State are driven by the reliability rules established in accordance with the NYSRC rules and with agreements between the NYSRC and NYISO. These requirements incorporate the following rules and standards: NERC Standards; NPCC Criteria, Guidelines and Procedures; New York-specific reliability rules; and local reliability rules. NPCC criteria may be more specific or stringent than NERC standards and policies, recognizing regional characteristics or reliability needs. In turn, New York-specific reliability rules may be more specific or stringent than NERC Standards and NPCC Criteria, recognizing New York control area (NYCA) system characteristics or reliability needs. Local reliability rules can be even more stringent than the general New York-specific reliability rules and apply to certain NYCA zones, recognizing unique local area characteristics or reliability needs. The specific NYRSC reliability rules governing resource adequacy and affecting generation investment include: the Installed Capacity Requirement (ICR), which refers to physical generation capacity; the Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) requirement, which refers to the relationship between physical generation capacity and annual peak loads; and 14 NYSRC, Reliability Rules For Planning And Operating the New York State Power System, Version 31, May 11, 2012, p. 4 (Reliability Rules). Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 4 9/19/12 the Minimum Operating Reserve requirement, which refers to the amount by which the generation capacity that is available to produce power at a particular time exceeds load at that time. The NYSRC is responsible for establishing the annual statewide ICR to ensure adequate resource capacity. Factors to be considered in the calculation of the ICR include the characteristics of the loads, uncertainty in the load forecast, outages and deratings of generating units, the effects of interconnections to other control areas, and transfer capabilities within the NYCA. The annual statewide ICR is established by implementing reliability rules for providing the corresponding statewide IRM requirement. The IRM requirement relates to ICR through the following equation: ICR = (1+ IRM Requirement) x forecasted NYCA Peak Load where the IRM Requirement is expressed as a percentage of peak load. To meet the annual statewide ICR established by the NYSRC, the NYISO establishes locational ICAP requirements that recognize internal and external transmission constraints. The NYCA IRM is defined by an acceptable Loss of Load Expectation of one day in ten years.15 With respect to operating reserves, the NYSRC rule is more specific than the NERC standard in that it specifies scheduled outage requirements and requires procedures for maintaining minimum operating reserve levels. The NYSRC rule is also more specific than the corresponding NERC and NPCC rules in specifying minimum 10-minute and 30-minute reserve requirements and the permissible mix between synchronized and non-synchronized reserves. Under these rules, LSEs must demonstrate that they meet capacity requirements including the IRM.16 In addition, LSEs must comply with all reliability rules or face penalties assessed by the NYISO.17 In summary, resource adequacy in New York is ensured by Reliability Rules that are created by institutions other than the NYISO. B. Evolution of Institutional Responsibility for Resource Adequacy In the wake of the wide-scale Northeast blackout of 1965, New York’s electric utilities established a state-wide, wholesale power coordinating institution, the New York Power Pool (NYPP). The NYPP operated for over thirty years until it was superseded by NYISO, playing a central role in helping the electric utilities in New York State to operate their systems cooperatively for the purpose of assuring reliable, economic electric service for electricity customers in the state. The revenue to support the cost of operating the NYPP was collected through consumers’ electric rates. 15 Refer to NYSRC, Reliability Rules, p. 13. 16 New York ISO, Installed Capacity Manual, March 2012, Chapter 3. 17 New York ISO, New York ISO Agreement, Article 16: Penalties for Non-Performance, December 6, 2011, p. 80. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 5 9/19/12 New York created NYPP as a “tight power pool” responsible for grid management and economic dispatch of the power plants in the state. To serve their own requirements, individual utilities owned and entered into contractual arrangements for generating resources and transmission systems, and they coordinated (or “pooled”) their operations for their mutual benefit and the benefit of their customers. NYPP managed many of the reliability functions that would typically be performed by a control area operator.18 In addition, it provided economic benefits by performing certain functions— committing and dispatching generation—to minimize the variable cost of producing power for the combined system by arranging efficient trades among the utilities. For this wholesale power production function, NYPP provided what amounts to a centrally administered market for arranging short-term trades among the utilities, whereby the trades were priced (albeit inefficiently) on the basis of a “split-savings” rule.19 In 1999, NYISO was authorized by FERC to be the successor to NYPP. NYISO performs the functions that were performed by NYPP, though it performs many of those functions differently. For example, NYISO uses different dispatch models than did NYPP and simultaneously optimizes the provision of energy and operating reserve service. In addition, NYISO performs functions that NYPP did not perform. For example, NYISO operates centralized markets for energy and operating reserves, and sets the prices for these services on a nodal basis for generators and a zonal basis for loads.20 III. NEW YORK GENERATION INVESTMENT HISTORY This section presents a history of the investment in new generation in New York State over the past twelve years, since the NYISO commenced operations in November 1999 and examines the proposed investment over the coming four years. 18 These functions typically are as follows: real-time balancing of electric system supply and demand, maintaining voltages, monitoring contingencies, managing operating reserves, and committing and dispatching generation. 19 Although the dispatch was efficient, the inefficient pricing eventually led, in the early 1990s, to a breakdown of NYPP’s unified dispatch. This occurred because NYPP participants were allowed to trade power with entities outside of New York at market prices. In the wake of the passage of the Energy Policy Act of 1992, electricity markets opened up so that NYPP participants could find better market-based power prices outside of New York than the split-savings prices that they could obtain within NYPP. The creation of NYISO was partly motivated by the need for a better pricing system within New York. 20 Because generators are very price-sensitive, a small change in price can induce a generator to change its output from minimum to maximum, or vice versa. Therefore, it is important that generators get accurate nodal prices. Because loads are much less price-sensitive and most loads do not see wholesale prices at all, efficiency is barely compromised by charging loads less accurate zonal prices. Charging loads on a zonal basis is also consistent with the traditional and still prevalent notion that it would be unfair to charge high locational prices to those customers who happened to have the misfortune of being located at a high-price node. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 6 9/19/12 A. Generation Investment, 2000 to 2012 Table 1 summarizes the generation capacity placed in service in New York over the period January 2000 through April 2012, by year and zone. It shows that just over half of the investment during these dozen years occurred in the three years 2004–2006. It also shows that just over half of the investments occurred by 2005, and that just under half of the investments occurred after 2005. Table 1 also indicates that, over the twelve-year period, 82% of generation investment in New York State was located in Zone F (Albany area, also called Capital Zone), Zone J (New York City), and Zone K (Long Island). The bottom of the table, however, shows a remarkable difference between the two subperiods: whereas 97% of investment was in Zones F, J, and K during the 2000–2005 period, only 68% of investment was in those zones after 2005. Table 2 presents information for the same period by generation technology and zone. It shows that nearly all of the generation investments were in combined cycle (65%), combustion turbine (15%), and wind (16%) technologies. Table 3 shows the investments by technology broken down between the periods through 2005 and after 2005. This table indicates that the investment in combustion turbines in the years through 2005, which was motivated almost entirely by reliability concerns, shifted entirely toward wind power in the years after 2005, which was motivated by a combination of federal tax policies favorable to wind resources, the New York State renewable portfolio standard and state-based encouragement through NYSERDA. According to NYISO’s Power Trends report issued in 2011: Since 2000, more than 8,600 megawatts of new generation have been built by private power producers and public authorities. Among the new power plants were numerous merchant projects, shifting the risk of building new power supplies from rate-paying consumers to investors. Over 80 percent of the new generation has been sited in New York City, on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley, the regions of New York State where demand is greatest… Much of the new generation developed in upstate regions is powered by wind; consequently, it was sited where wind resources are most available. Increased generation in upstate regions also resulted from upgrades in existing nuclear and hydropower plants. Almost all of the conventional new generation has been added near the load centers where power is needed the most.21 The NYISO’s own Power Trends report thus tells a story of the success of what the State has managed to accomplish through a capacity market consisting of utility self-supply, long-term bilateral contracts between load serving entities and merchant plants, merchant plants that rely on the NYISO’s centralized markets for revenue, and State environmental policies supported by the State (NYSERDA) and federal tax policies. 21 NYISO, Power Trends 2011: Energizing New York’s Legacy of Leadership, undated, p. 12. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 7 9/19/12 Table 1 New York State Generation Capacity Investment by Zone and Year, January 2000–April 2012 (MW)22 Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total 2000-2005 2006-2012 22 A B Zone23 D E 12 C 15 211 18 517 392 456 2,925 3,180 1,401 Total 18 813 581 120 1,694 1,447 1,458 161 760 502 713 817 15 9,100 53 158 7 11 84 433 392 14 442 2,218 707 1,304 1,876 995 407 4,674 4,426 7 6 47 F 78 J K 680 50 532 114 121 178 2 6 6 26 101 6 5 10 3 257 113 9 51 392 231 125 5 5 2 74 1,323 895 5 250 374 1,216 9 693 375 660 32 NYISO 2012 Gold Book, pp. 30-49, and CA Energy Consulting analysis. 23 NYISO Zones are: A – West, B – Genesee, C – Central, D – North, E – Mohawk Valley, F – Capital, G – Hudson Valley, H – Millwood, I – Dunwoodie, J – New York City, K – Long Island. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 8 9/19/12 Table 2 New York State Generation Capacity Investment by Generation Technology and Zone, January 2000–April 2012 (MW)24 Zone Technology Combined Cycle Cogeneration Energy Storage Combustion Turbine Conventional Hydro Internal Combustion Photo Voltaic Steam Turbine Wind Turbine Total A CC CG ES GT HY IC PV ST WT B C D E F 2,886 J 2,500 K 553 500 817 3 47 28 11 8 48 2 15 20 6 2 8 11 8 32 180 136 211 7 18 445 517 386 392 442 456 2,925 3,180 1,401 Total 5,939 3 28 1,412 15 77 32 180 1,414 9,100 Table 3 New York State Generation Capacity Investment by Generation Technology and Period (MW)25 Unit Type Combined Cycle Cogeneration Energy Storage Combustion Turbine Conventional Hydro Internal Combustion Photo Voltaic Steam Turbine Wind Turbine Total CC CG ES GT HY IC PV ST WT 2000–2005 2006–2012 3,018 2,921 3 28 1,412 4 11 12 65 32 180 48 1,366 4,674 4,426 24 Source: NYISO 2012 Gold Book, pp. 30–49, and CA Energy Consulting analysis. 25 Id. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 9 Total 5,939 3 28 1,412 15 77 32 180 1,414 9,100 9/19/12 B. Generation Investment, 2000 to 2005 As Figure 1 shows, of the 4,674 MW of generation capacity placed in service between 2000 and 2005, about 41% was either utility-owned capacity or under long-term PPAs with utilities. Another 58% of the capacity was placed in service as merchant plants relying on the NYISO’s centralized markets for revenues. About 1% received public support but also could be classified under merchant plant. Figure 1 Capacity Addition Shares by Transaction Type, January 2000–December 2005, MW26 Public Support 1% Utility/Bilateral 41% Merchant 58% Utility/Bilateral Merchant Public Support Given the time that must elapse between planning and initially operating a generator, most (if not all) of the generation investment during this period was planned for and initiated under the NYPP and prior to the creation of the NYISO. For example, consider the histories of two particular merchant plants, both located in Zone F, that together accounted for nearly 39% of 26 NYISO Gold Book and CA Energy Consulting analysis. Transaction types are: “Public Support” = long-term contract sponsored by NYSERDA along with federal tax incentives; “Merchant” = capacity developed by independent power producer relying on NYISO’s markets for revenues; “Utility/Bilateral” = utility-owned capacity or bilateral long-term PPA between utility and merchant plant developer. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 10 9/19/12 the capacity installed during the period 2000–2005. The first plant, the Athens Generating Station (owned by Athens Generating Company LLC, a subsidiary of U.S. Generating Company (USGen)), began commercial operation in 2004 and consists of three combined cycle units totaling 1,080 MW. The second plant, the Bethlehem Energy Center (PSEG Energy Resource & Trade LLC), began commercial operation in 2005 and consists of a 750 MW combined cycle unit. Both of these plants had their planning origins in the NYPP era. USGen filed a pre-application for siting of the plant with the New York State Board on Electric Generation Siting and the Environment (Siting Board) in September 1997, well before the NYISO came into being. It was granted a permit by the Siting Board on June 15, 2000, barely six months after the launch of the NYISO.27 At the time, USGen conducted a benefit-cost study of the plant for Greene County where the plant would be located. The study provides the motivations for the development of the plant as it states: As a non-utility generator of electric power, USGen would be selling electricity on the open market with prices subject to competitive pressures now being unleashed through a complex deregulation of the power industry in New York State.28 The statement reveals that USGen was clearly motivated by the prospect of selling power in the wholesale and retail markets that had been restructured in New York, but the statement does not mention the prospect of selling capacity in a short-term capacity market. Certainly, it was not motivated by the prospect of selling capacity into NYISO’s centralized capacity market, as neither NYISO nor a centralized capacity market existed at that time. The Bethlehem Energy Center (BEC) story is more complicated but also has its origins in the preNYISO period. In November 1998, before the NYISO took over, Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation (NIMO) filed an application with the Siting Board for a Certificate of Environmental Compatibility and Public Need (Certificate) to construct and operate a 750 MW combined-cycle electric generation station on a 186-acre site where the 400 MW Albany Steam Station was already located. In May 2000, NIMO sold 84 acres and the Albany Steam Station to PSEG Power LLC. Subsequently, on July 2, 2001, PSEG Power New York Inc. supplemented the November 1998 application and thus resumed the process to redevelop the site with a combustion turbine. In February 2002, the Siting Board determined that the PSEG application complied with 27 State of New York, Board on Electric Generation Siting and the Environment, Case 97-F-1563, Application by Athens Generating Company, L.P. for a Certificate of Environmental Compatibility and Public Need to Construct and Operate a 1,080 Megawatt Natural Gas-fired Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Generating Facility, in the Town of Athens, Greene County, Opinion And Order Granting Certificate Of Environmental Compatibility And Public Need, June 15, 2000. 28 Center for Governmental Research Inc., Athens Generating Project: An Assessment Of The Project’s Value To The Community and the Owner, prepared for Athens, NY Community, funded by Central Hudson Gas & Electric Corporation, June 1998, p. i. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 11 9/19/12 the requirements of Public Service Law.29 Completion of the plant was delayed, however, because PSEG Power experienced financial difficulties; so the plant did not achieve commercial status until 2005. In 2006, the NYISO’s capacity market was reasonably well developed and PSEG had this to say in describing the attractiveness of the BEC location in New York: Perhaps the most attractive characteristic of BEC’s site is its location. It is not only within NYISO’s footprint (the robust New York City market is just 150 miles downriver) but also near a small load pocket that includes Albany. Significantly, that load pocket requires considerable reactive support during the summer, when everyone uses their air conditioners, and winter, when they run their electric heaters. Providing that support by selling ancillary services to NYISO was an opportunity that made completing BEC even more attractive to PSEG, which — like any utility — is always on the lookout for sources of revenue other than capacity payments. The old plant’s switchyard connections allow the plant to pump reactive power directly into Albany.30 The plant’s attractiveness centers on its location, which highlights how critical the plant is for providing reliability service (reactive support and other ancillary services) to the grid. It is likely that the retirement of the original Albany Steam Station meant that some plant had to be built to replace it in order to maintain grid reliability. This aspect was also emphasized by remarks of the then-chairman of the New York Public Service Commission: The Bethlehem Energy Center exemplifies how we can meet our growing demand for energy in an efficient and environmentally responsible manner, and I want to thank PSEG for making this investment in New York… Investments in new generating capacity are critical to maintaining the high reliability of the state’s power grid, particularly during these summer months when the use of electricity spikes.31 Even though both the Athens and the Bethlehem plants are run as merchant plants today and depend on the short-term ICAP market for a portion of their revenues, their origins lie in the period before the NYISO began operations and well before the current ICAP market came into being. Between 2001 and 2005, LIPA entered into PPAs for 719 MW of capacity for reasons other than the prospect of making money in or avoiding payments to NYISO’s capacity market. Very 29 New York State Board On Electric Generation Siting And The Environment, C 97-F-2162 - Application by PSEG Power New York, Inc. for a Certificate of Environmental Compatibility and Public Need to Construct and Operate a 750 Megawatt Natural Gas-Fired Combined Cycle, Combustion Turbine Generating Facility in the Town of Bethlehem, Albany County. Opinion And Order Granting A Certificate Of Environmental Compatibility And Public Need Subject To Conditions, February 28, 2002. 30 John Javetski, Bethlehem Energy Center, Glenmont, New York, August 15, 2006, powermag.com/print/issues/cover_stories/Bethlehem-Energy-Center-Glenmont-New-York_457.html 31 PSEG Power Completes 750-MW Bethlehem Energy Center, http://www.energyvortex.com/pages/headlinedetails.cfm?id=1941. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 12 9/19/12 simply, LIPA needed the capacity to satisfy its obligation to serve load as well as satisfy reliability requirements. As LIPA stated, it “has moved aggressively to facilitate the upgrading and addition of generation on Long Island as one of the solutions to meet growing customer demand.”32 Table 4 shows that LIPA’s load obligation (i.e., it had to meet the locational ICAP requirement) led it to support the building of a dozen generators in New York. Table 4 Long Island Power Authority, Generation Capacity Additions, 2001–200533 InService Date 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 Total Developer Calpine FPL Energy National Grid National Grid PPL Global PPL Global FPL Energy Hawkeye Equus Village of Freeport Calpine Pinelawn Facility Name Bethpage Baywater Glenwood Landing Port Jefferson Brentwood Shoreham Jamaica Bay Greenport Freeport Freeport Bethpage West Babylon Summer Rating (MW) 48 50 80 79 78 76 52 52 48 4934 76 78 719 In 2001, NYPA placed in service ten gas-fired combustion turbine units in New York City and one unit in Long Island (Brentwood) for a combined total of 550 MW.35 None of this capacity was brought into service through incentives provided by the NYISO’s capacity market. According to NYPA it: …had launched a crash program in late August 2000 to install these PowerNow! plants in response to warnings from officials in the public and private sectors 32 Long Island Power Authority, Electric Resource Plan 2010 – 2020, February 2010, Appendix C, Energy Primer, p. 10. 33 Long Island Power Authority, Electric Resource Plan 2010 – 2020, February 2010, Appendix C, Energy Primer, Exhibit 2-5, p. 9, supplemented by review of the NYISO 2012 Gold Book, Table III-2. 34 Strictly speaking, the Village of Freeport built the Freeport facility to serve its own load, and sold 10 MW to LIPA under a PPA. 35 As listed in 2012 Gold Book. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 13 9/19/12 that the New York City metropolitan area could face power shortages in the summer of 2001. Similar warnings were repeated throughout the 10 months it took to obtain, site, design and install the units—a process that normally would require more than two years.36 NYPA’s investment in generation in the early 2000s was motivated to meet its load obligations and satisfy reliability requirements in New York City, rather than by the prospect of revenues earned in the NYISO’s administered markets. In summary, of the 4,674 MW of generation capacity placed into service between 2000 and 2005, about 41% was either utility-owned supply or under long-term bilateral contract, 58% was merchant plant, and about 1% was renewable power, some of which was receiving public support from and under long-term contracts with NYSERDA. The 41% was built to meet load obligations in conformance with reliability requirements, not in reliance on the NYISO centralized markets. Most of the 58% was initiated to satisfy increasing load demands and to sell into the broadest set of markets then available, including the residual, short-term capacity market. Thus, the majority of the capacity placed in service in this period was built for reasons having little or nothing to do with a possible future mandatory forward capacity market. C. Generation Investment, 2006 to 2012 As Table 3 shows, 4,426 MW of generation capacity was placed in service over the 2006 to 2012 time period. Figure 2 shows the percentage shares of capacity additions by technology type. Natural gas-fired combined cycle and co-generation units, at 66% of the total, continue to prevail because of their relatively low capital costs, their operational efficiency, and low natural gas prices. Wind turbines make up the majority of the remaining capacity additions (1,414 MW), driven by a combination of RPS, federal renewable resource tax incentives such as the production tax credit, and with a significant portion of that wind generation (1,003 MW, 73%) also encouraged by NYSERDA under long-term contracts. 36 http://www.nypa.gov/facilities/powernow.htm Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 14 9/19/12 Figure 2 Capacity Addition Shares by Technology Type, January 2006–April 201237 IC PV 1.47% 0.71% ES HY CG 0.63% 0.24% 0.07% WT 30.87% CC 66.00% CC WT IC PV ES HY CG Figure 3 summarizes the shares by transaction type over the period. The renewable resources that have been supported by the federal tax incentives and by NYSERDA (labeled “Public Support”) under long-term (mostly 10-year) contracts constitute 25% of the total capacity additions listed in the NYISO’s 2012 Gold Book.38 About 44% of the capacity placed in service during this period was supported by a long-term PPA between a utility (i.e., an LSE) and a merchant plant developer, labeled “Utility/Bilateral.”39 The 31% of capacity additions labeled “Merchant” have been placed in service by independent power producers that depend entirely on the NYISO’s centrally administered markets for revenues. 37 NYISO 2012 Gold Book, pp. 30-49, and CA Energy Consulting analysis. CC = combined cycle, WT = wind turbine, IC = internal combustion, PV = photo voltaic, ES = energy storage, HY = hydro, CG = cogeneration. 38 NYSERDA, 2011 RPS Performance Report, Appendix A – Renewable Portfolio Standard, Main Tier Contracts as of December 31, 2011, pp. A-1–A-2. 39 During this period, there were no capacity additions that were directly owned by utilities. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 15 9/19/12 Figure 3 Capacity Addition Shares by Transaction Type, January 2006–April 2012, MW40 Public Support 25% Utility/Bilateral 44% Merchant 31% Utility/Bilateral Merchant Public Support Consequently, a combination of bilateral market long-term PPAs, merchant plants, and publicly funded renewables (including support through federal tax credits) have been responsible for securing the generation resources necessary to ensure safe, reliable, efficient, and environmentally conscious capacity for New York State during this period. The voluntary NYISO residual ICAP market has been a useful supplement to these main means by which New York obtains generation capacity. D. Planned Generation Additions The New York State market continues to stimulate investment in economic generation capacity in diverse locations, particularly where it is valued most highly. The NYISO’s 2012 Gold Book lists 40 NYISO Gold Book and CA Energy Consulting analysis. Transaction types are: “Public Support” = long-term contract sponsored by NYSERDA along with federal tax incentives; “Merchant” = capacity developed by independent power producer relying on NYISO’s centralized markets for revenues; “Utility/Bilateral” = utilityowned capacity or bilateral long-term PPA between utility and merchant plant developer. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 16 9/19/12 4,266 MW of proposed generation additions by class year and unit type for the period from April 2012 through June 2016.41 Figure 4 summarizes the shares by unit type. A significant share (30%) of the proposed generation investment consists of wind farms in upper and western New York. In keeping with their strong economic advantages, combined cycle units constitute the largest share (57%) of the proposed capacity additions. Figure 4 Proposed Capacity Addition Shares by Technology Type, 2012–201642 Hydro 0% Solid Waste 1% Landfill Gas 0% Dual Fuel 12% Wind Turbines 30% Combined Cycle 57% Wind Turbines Combined Cycle Dual Fuel Hydro Solid Waste Landfill Gas Figure 5 summarizes proposed capacity additions by transaction type (Utility/Bilateral, Merchant, Public Support, and Uncertain). The market category labeled “Uncertain” in Figure 5 accounts for several wind farms whose disposition depends on a number of key factors, 41 The period is defined in terms of the expected in-service date of the proposed plant. 42 NYISO 2012 Gold Book, p. 59 and CA Energy Consulting analysis. Proposed re-ratings, amounting to a total increment of 214 MW, have not been included in this chart. CC = combined cycle, WT = wind turbine, IC = internal combustion, PV = photo voltaic, ES = energy storage, HY = hydro, GT = combustion turbine, CG = cogeneration, ST = steam turbine (fossil). Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 17 9/19/12 including securing investors and long-term bilateral PPAs, as well as overcoming local community resistance to their further expansion. These projects are currently on hold, and therefore categorized as “Uncertain.” Figure 5 Proposed Generation Additions by Transaction Shares, 2012–201643 Uncertain 4% Public support 12% Merchant 16% Utility/Bilateral 68% Utility/Bilateral Merchant Public support Uncertain Developers of two planned combined cycle projects, Cricket Valley Energy Center’s (CVE) 1000 MW44 project and CPV Valley Energy Center’s (CPV Valley) 650 MW45 project, have both indicated the significance of obtaining long-term PPAs in order that they may secure financing 43 NYISO, 2012 Gold Book, p. 59; and CA Energy Consulting analysis. Transaction types are: “Public Support” = longterm contract sponsored by NYSERDA; “Merchant” = capacity developed by independent power producer relying on NYISO’s centralized markets for revenues; “Utility/Bilateral” = utility owned capacity or bilateral long-term PPA between utility and merchant plant developer, “Uncertain” = capacity additions whose transactional relationship could not be determined from information that CA Energy Consulting was able to obtain. 44 Listed at 1,136 MW nameplate capacity in the 2012 Gold Book. 45 Listed at 691.6 MW nameplate capacity in the 2012 Gold Book. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 18 9/19/12 for project completion. In response to requests for information from the New York Energy Highway Task Force, Cricket Valley had this to say about long-term contracts: Obtaining a long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), or equivalent contractual off-take agreement, from an “investment-grade” counterparty will be an essential element for the CVE Project to be financed and constructed. A PPA will ensure a stable cash flow to the project, which will reduce risk and provide the most attractive economic benefits. CVE believes that the State of New York can facilitate such an agreement, and in turn accomplish the goals of the Energy Highways Initiative, through the creation of a state-sponsored Request for Proposals (RFP).46 In order to minimize the Project’s exposure to market risk and provide stable pricing, CVE intends to negotiate long-term off-take agreements for the entire output of the Facility. Ongoing discussions with potential long-term counterparties indicate that future revenue streams for installed capacity (ICAP) in New York are somewhat speculative and, therefore, there is a great deal of uncertainty over the future of this important revenue source. Obtaining a longterm PPA from an investment-grade counterparty (e.g., State or publicly-owned electric utilities or other investment grade counterparties) will be an essential element to reduce pricing and uncertainty for the Project, its equity investors, and debt providers.47 CPV Valley echoed CVE’s statements in its own response to a request for information from the New York Energy Highway Task Force: CPV Valley’s finance plan addresses the Project’s three distinct periods of activity: development, construction, and operations. During development, CPV Valley’s sponsors will contribute the required equity to fund 100% of the capital needs of the Project. Raising debt financing for the CPV Valley Energy Center is predicated on a solution beyond that currently offered in the NYISO market. CPV Valley is flexible and willing to work with the state of New York in developing a structure that provides the greatest value to the New York ratepayers. However, in order to effectively raise the private capital to start construction of the CPV Valley Energy Center, CPV Valley would require some form of surety of future revenues in the form of a long-term contract.48 46 Cricket Valley Energy, LLC, Response of Cricket Valley Energy to Request for Information from the New York Energy Highway Task Force, May 12, 2012, p. 3, (Cricket Valley Response). 47 Id., p. 12. 48 CPV Valley Energy Center, LLC, Response of CPV Valley Energy to Request for Information from the New York Energy Highway Task Force, undated, p. 8. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 19 9/19/12 NRG Energy, developer of the four-unit, 1,000 MW49 Astoria Repowering Project, also emphasized the value of long-term contracts to ensure financing when it stated: The following table summarizes the key financing terms which NRG believes, based on its recent experience successfully obtaining project financing and its ongoing consultations with leading financial institutions, could be available to the project, assuming commencement of financing negotiations in 2012 following execution of a long-term, financeable contract and other material project contracts.50 Combined cycle projects are not alone in looking to the bilateral market to secure financing. Wind project developers have also signaled the importance of long-term contracts to enable completion of renewable resource projects. For example, BP Wind Energy, developer of the 285 MW Cape Vincent Wind Farm, states: Wind projects can benefit greatly from the certainty provided by a long term power purchase agreement. This helps with securing a future revenue stream that can then be used to help with financing the project. Given the purchasing power of the public authorities in New York, we look forward to seeing a stronger willingness by such entities to enter into 20 year power purchase agreements.51 BP Wind Energy’s preferred source of project revenue is to enter into a longterm power purchase agreement with a credit worthy counterparty; however, other sources of revenue which will allow the Project to be financed will also be considered (e.g. a combination of a long-term renewable energy credit (REC) contract from NYSERDA and an energy hedge).52 A significant proportion of the proposed combined cycle units are replacing older, less efficient units; so the net addition to capacity will be less than the 4,266 MW. Nonetheless, the evidence from the proposed capacity additions strongly reinforces the historical record that New York State’s capacity market, as presently configured, is working to reliably meet load growth and fulfill environmental public policy goals. 49 The 2012 Gold Book lists only three units at a total of 580 MW nameplate capacity. The fourth unit is not listed in the Gold Book because long-term contracts have not been secured. 50 NRG Inc., Response of NRG Inc. to Request for Information from New York Energy Highway, May 30, 2012, p. 15. The table referred to has been omitted. 51 BP Wind Energy NA Inc., Response of BP Wind Energy to Request for Information from New York Energy Highway, May 30, 2012, p. 5. 52 Id., p. 7. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 20 9/19/12 E. Fuel Diversity Table 2 and Figure 6 show the diversity of generation that has been installed over the past twelve years. Combined cycle units have provided the lion’s share of new generation capacity because of their relatively low cost, an advantage that has become greater as natural gas prices have dropped dramatically. Wind power has ranked a distant second, spurred by New York’s RPS, support from NYSERDA and federal tax incentives. Gas-fired combustion turbines have ranked a close third. Other technologies have made only a very small contribution. Figure 6 New York State Capacity Additions by Technology Shares, January 2000–April 201253 CG 0.04% HY 0.16% ES PV 0.35% 0.31% ST 1.98% GT 15.51% IC 0.85% WT 15.54% CC 65.27% CC WT IC PV ES HY GT CG ST In spite of the preponderance of gas-fired generation additions over the past twelve years, New York has diverse fuel sources. The NYISO remarked on the achieved fuel diversity in its Power Trends 2011 report: 53 NYISO Gold Book and CA Energy Consulting analysis. CC = combined cycle, WT = wind turbine, IC = internal combustion, PV = photo voltaic, ES = energy storage, HY = hydro, GT = combustion turbine, CG = cogeneration, ST = steam turbine (fossil). Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 21 9/19/12 From a statewide perspective, the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in New York State is relatively diverse and balanced among hydropower, nuclear, coal, natural gas, and oil. However, fossil-fueled generation predominates in the high-demand downstate regions of New York due to stringent environmental requirements in that region. New York State has adopted energy policies aimed to promote the growth of power supplies from clean and renewable resources. Progress is being made toward expanding “green power,” such as wind and solar energy, and increasing energy efficiency and demand-side resources.54 The combination of utility-owned supply, bilateral contracts, NYSERDA grants and federal tax incentives for renewables, and the NYISO’s voluntary ICAP market have worked to deliver diversity where it has been most economical. For example, substantial amounts of wind capacity were developed following 2004 and, as illustrated by Figure 7, most of it in the western and upstate portions of New York where wind conditions are the most favorable. 54 NYISO, Power Trends 2011: Energizing New York’s Legacy of Leadership, undated, p. 6. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 22 9/19/12 Figure 7 New York State Wind Power Projects—May 201255 F. Geographic Dispersion: “Where It’s Needed Most” There is evidence that the combination of the bilateral market, owned-supply, and the voluntary NYISO ICAP market has successfully delivered resource adequacy where it is needed most. Figure 8 shows the geographic dispersion of capacity investment over the period January 2000 to April 2012 by zone. The zones that have perennially been in greatest need of capacity are the densely populated zones J and K (New York City and Long Island); and these have been two of the three zones that have received the most capacity investment. 55 New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/40966.html. There are some relatively small differences between the nameplate capacities of some wind projects listed in the 2012 Gold Book and those same projects shown in the map. The 2012 Gold Book lists a total of 1,414 MW installed nameplate capacity compared to the 1,407 MW shown in the figure. The figure is used here to illustrate the distribution of wind projects throughout the state, not as a data source. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 23 9/19/12 Figure 8 New York State Installed Capacity Investment by Zone, January 2000–April 201256 The concentration of generation in Zone F may be explained by the fact that it is below the Central East transmission constraint dividing upstate and downstate and has convenient access to natural gas pipelines and transmission lines. G. Reliability A combination of utility-owned capacity, bilateral contracts, NYSERDA-stimulated renewables, and merchant plant development has delivered resources adequate for keeping pace with both peak demand and reserve margin requirements. This success is evident in the 2010 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA), which is part of NYISO’s Comprehensive System Planning Process.57 56 NYISO Zone Map and CA Energy Consulting analysis. The value 3,180 MW applies to capacity additions in Zone J only. The 2012 Gold Book shows no capacity additions in Zones G, H, and I during the period 2000 to 2012. 57 NYISO, 2010 Reliability Needs Assessment, Final Report, September 2010, p. 56 ff. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 24 9/19/12 The RNA includes a scenario analyses that found that reliability violations could occur only under limited circumstances: if the Indian Point plant was retired at the end of its license expiration date; if government initiatives to improve air quality result in retirements that are greater than specific expectations; or if the economic recovery through 2019 is stronger than expected. Despite the challenges noted in its scenario analyses, NYISO concluded that there are no unmet “Reliability Needs” forecast at this time, assuming that transmission and generation facilities stay in service from 2011-2020. NYISO listed two primary factors that have favorable implications for reliability over this intermediate term: Generation additions are forthcoming with two new proposed generating plants totaling 1,060 MW of new capacity in Zone J alone; and Electricity demand growth will be moderated by the continuing impacts of the 20082009 financial crisis, Statewide Energy Efficiency Programs, and increased registration of Special Case Resources that reduce power usage. NYISO has therefore stated it will not issue a request for additional reliability solutions and will continue to evaluate the progress of the market-based solutions.58 NYISO will thus continue to monitor whether the resource adequacy and security needs for the New York power grid are continuing to be met. NYISO’s Power Trends 2011 paints a positive picture for reliability from the perspective of resource adequacy. NYISO stated: The immediate outlook for New York’s electric system is positive. As a result of developments that have contributed to a more reliable system over the past decade, as well as planned additions in the near future, the adequacy of power resources is not an imminent concern. 59 In summing up the resource adequacy assessment, NYISO states: The NYISO’s latest assessment of the electric system’s reliability needs reports that New York has sufficient resources (generation, transmission and demand response) to reliably serve load through 2020. In 2011, resources are anticipated to exceed peak demand by more than 10,000 megawatts, and exceed reserve requirements by more than 5,000 megawatts.60 58 Id., p. 9. 59 NYISO, Power Trends 2011, undated, p. 6. 60 Id., p. 15. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 25 9/19/12 Figure 9, taken from Power Trends 2011, shows the adequacy of generation resources to serve New York State load for the summer 2011. In-state resources alone were found to be sufficient to serve forecast peak load plus the installed reserve margin. Figure 9 New York State Resource Capability: Summer 201161 According to the NYISO, the existing and planned resources (including demand response and Special Case Resources) are expected to be adequate to serve peak load and satisfy reliability criteria into the next decade: The total resource capability in the NYCA for 2012 is 43,686 MW, an increase of 1,528 MW due to the net impact of additions, retirements and changes in unit ratings… This includes existing NYCA capacity and resources (including demand response), all resource changes, and known long-term purchases and sales with neighboring Control Areas. It is greater than 116% of the 2012 projected peak load of 33,295 MW. The total resource capability is also greater than 116% of projected peak loads for all succeeding years through 2022.62 61 Id., p. 16. 62 NYISO 2012 Gold Book, p. 7. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 26 9/19/12 IV. DRIVERS OF GENERATION INVESTMENT IN NEW YORK Generation investment in New York is driven by both non-market standards and by market incentives. A. Non-Market Standards Generators and LSEs must respond to non-market standards, all of which affect market prices and market incentives. These include obligations to serve, reliability standards, renewable portfolio standards, and environmental regulations. 1. Obligations to Serve Utility franchise arrangements traditionally require that utilities serve all customers who desire electric power service in their franchise territories. This includes the 51 municipal and cooperative distribution utilities in New York State. With industry restructuring, New York’s investor-owned utilities have a continuing obligation to serve as providers-of-last-resort for those customers who do not choose or cannot choose alternative suppliers. The NYPSC specifically requires regulated franchise utilities to serve as providers-of-last-resort for residential and small commercial and industrial customers.63 The practices of the utilities in meeting that obligation (as LSEs) vary according to the composition of their supply portfolio (e.g., the shares occupied by legacy contracts, spot market purchases, and supply obtained through competitive procurement auctions). Obligations to serve growing electricity demand and the ongoing procurement practices of the utilities create demand for additional generation capacity. 2. Reliability Standards To meet the reliability standards of NYSRC, NPCC, and NERC, it is generally (but not always) necessary to build generation capacity. This serves as a motive for LSEs to secure sufficient capacity to meet reserve and planning reserve requirements, thereby creating demand for new generation. The examples of NYPA and LIPA to build generation in zones J and K in response to the locational ICAP requirements were discussed above. Another example was ConEd’s repowering of the East River generating station shows how reliability standards drive investment in generation, regardless of NYISO’s ICAP market. In 2000, well before NYISO’s centralized ICAP market was put in place, ConEd announced plans for replacing the steam production capacity of the company’s 100-year old Waterside generating station with new capacity at its East River station. Subsequently, the Waterside station was closed in 2005 and sold along with other nearby ConEd properties. The focus of the repowering plan was to replace the Waterside station and enhance and improve ConEd’s ability to reliably and economically supply steam by installing a state-of-the-art steam generation facility in an unused portion of the East River generating station. The cogeneration technology thus installed 63 New York PSC, Opinion No. 96-12, Case 94-E-0952, May 20, 1996. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 27 9/19/12 enabled ConEd to generate electricity in addition to the plan’s primary purpose of providing steam. This project added 360 MW to installed capacity in the NYCA in 2005 that had little or nothing to do with NYISO’s ICAP market. 3. Renewable Portfolio Standards New York, through regulations adopted by the NYPSC and quite independent of the NYISO’s capacity market, first enacted its renewable portfolio standard (RPS) in 2004, with the goal of increasing the amount of renewable electricity used by consumers to 25% by 2013.64 In 2010, following a comprehensive mid-course review, the Commission issued an Order that expanded the RPS target from 25% to 30% and extended the terminal year of the program from 2013 to 2015.65 As part of the September 24, 2004 Order creating the RPS, the NYPSC designated NYSERDA as the central procurement administrator for the RPS Program. In doing so, the NYPSC noted an expectation that voluntary renewable purchases by retail customers would contribute at least 1% toward the 25% goal, thus leaving baseline resources, State Agencies’ purchases, and NYSERDA procurements to realize the remaining 24%. In the same Order, the NYPSC directed the major investor-owned utilities to collect funds from ratepayers to be administered by NYSERDA for the purpose of supporting NYSERDA’s implementation responsibilities. Thus, NYSERDA has been responsible for the majority of the program’s goal. Specifically, NYSERDA is responsible for achieving targets for larger utility-scale resources and smaller behind-the-meter resources, with the remainder to be provided by voluntary renewable purchases, purchases made by state agencies, and purchases made by the LIPA. In addition to actions taken by the State to encourage investment in renewable resources, steps were taken at the Federal level to do the same. The Energy Policy Act of 1992 enacted the renewable electricity production tax credit (PTC), which reduced corporate income tax liability for electricity produced by renewable resources, including a 1.5 cents tax credit for each kWh of electricity produced by wind power. The PTC initially expired in July 1999 but has been expanded and extended several times through many different laws.66 It will expire at the end of 2012 and currently credits 2.2 cents per kWh for electricity produced by wind power. The PTC has been a major incentive for wind power development, and has helped to spur independent wind energy power producers across the country, including New York State. The 2004 NYPSC Order and the ensuing activity administered by NYSERDA, funded by electricity customers throughout New York State, along with the stimulus from the federal PTC, have 64 State Of New York Public Service Commission, Order Regarding Retail Renewable Portfolio Standard, CASE 03-E0188, September 24, 2004. 65 State Of New York Public Service Commission, Order Authorizing Customer-Sited Tier Program Through 2015 And Resolving Geographic Balance And Other Issues Pertaining To The RPS Program, CASE 03-E-0188, April 2, 2010. 66 The PTC has been extended through passage of the Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002 (P.L. 10747), the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 (P.L. 108-357), the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (P.L. 109-58), and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-5). Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 28 9/19/12 contributed substantially to the subsequent wind development boom in New York. Figure 10 shows that wind power investments took off after the RPS program began. This has led to installation of 1,414 MW67 of wind-powered capacity in various parts of New York State, largely spurred by the funding support from NYSERDA and the PTC. Thus, approximately 15% of the total installed capacity placed in service from 2000 to 2012 has been largely the result of the RPS and the efforts of the NYPSC, NYSERDA, and the federal PTC. This wind power investment has had little to do with incentives provided by the NYISO’s capacity market. Figure 10 New York State Wind Power Capacity Additions (MW)68 Since 2004, the New York RPS and NYSERDA have also encouraged the development of small quantities of non-wind renewable resources as summarized in Table 3 and Table 5. These other renewables, all of which are traded under long-term PPAs, account for another 1% of the installed capacity brought into service since 2000. 67 NYSERDA’s 2011 RPS Performance Report indicates that, through the end of 2011, there were 1,326 MW of wind powered capacity added in New York that is currently in operation. The difference may be due to the wind farms that came into service prior to 2004. The source of the 1,414 MW value is NYISO’s 2012 Gold Book. 68 Source, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, The New York State Renewable Portfolio Standard Performance Report, Through December 31, 2011, undated, p. 10. Figure 4 skips from 2001 to 2006 because there was no wind capacity installed in the years 2002 through 2005. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 29 9/19/12 Table 5 Non-Wind Renewable Resources Promoted by the RPS and NYSERDA since 2004 Resource Type Biogas Biomass Hydro Total Total Installed Capacity (MW) 56 31 27 114 Contract Length (Years) 10 10 1069 4. Environmental Regulations Environmental regulations tend to act as barriers to generation investment. From the early 1990s until 2002, New York had a streamlined process, codified in Article X of the Public Service Law, for granting permits to power plants 80 MW and over. The law provided a one-stop permitting process that helped developers secure approvals in approximately 12 months and incorporated what would have otherwise been local permitting issues. Article X expired at the end of 2002 and annual efforts to pass similar legislation have failed. Today, permits for large new generation facilities must be obtained through the State Environmental Quality Review Act process, which is more complicated and lengthy than the one that existed under Article X. The requirement for local permits often results in delays and additional expense, and may be used to block locally unpopular projects. This additional uncertainty can make New York State a riskier, and therefore less attractive, option for potential investors. In addition, regulations promulgated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) increase the difficulty and cost associated with building new generation and with repowering existing generation. For example, the EPA’s Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) requires twenty-seven states to reduce power plant emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions. New York is one of the states directly affected by this rule. How this rule will ultimately impact resource additions is unclear at this point because CSAPR’s requirements have been vacated by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.70 B. Market Incentives Investors build generation partly in response to the market prices they can receive for generation services. These prices reflect the foregoing non-market standards. 69 One contract has a length of three years. 70 EME Homer City Generation v. Environmental Protection Agency, et al., D.C. Cir. No. 11-1302, decided August 21, 2012. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 30 9/19/12 1. Short-Term Markets The NYISO administers short-term markets for energy, ancillary services, and capacity. The energy market consists of a day-ahead market and a real-time market. The day-ahead market is a forward market in which hourly locational marginal prices (LMPs) are calculated for the next operating day based on generation offers, demand bids, and scheduled bilateral transactions. The real-time market is a spot market in which current LMPs are calculated at five-minute intervals based on actual grid operating conditions. The ancillary services markets include those for operating reserves and regulation. By selecting units with the lowest total production costs to provide energy, operating reserves, and regulation, the NYISO minimizes the cost of serving load. Operating reserves and regulation are typically provided by generators, though the NYISO has opened these markets to include loads (i.e., demand-side providers). The NYISO currently conducts three types of ICAP auctions: forward strip auctions, in which capacity is transacted in six-month blocks for the upcoming capability period; monthly forward auctions in which capacity is transacted for the remaining months of the capability period; and monthly spot auctions. Auction participants include any entities seeking to purchase Unforced Capacity (including all entities that have Unforced Capacity shortfalls), qualified ICAP suppliers, and any entity that owns excess Unforced Capacity. The two forward markets are voluntary, but all requirements must be satisfied at the conclusion of the spot market immediately prior to each month. LSEs that have purchased more than their obligation prior to the spot auction may sell the excess into the spot auction. As a report prepared in 2009 for the NYISO stated: At present, the New York capacity market does not appear to have fundamental design flaws that require total redesign of the market. FERC has not found the NYISO market to be unjust and unreasonable as it did for the capacity markets that preceded the implementation of forward capacity markets in PJM and ISONE. The NYISO’s Independent Market Advisor has likewise not identified fundamental design flaws, although he has recommended creating a new Southeast New York capacity zone and some other adjustments. The Independent Market Advisor’s largest concern, about market power in New York City has already been addressed through a proceeding and a series of FERC Orders, first in March 2008.71 The NYISO’s various markets, like those of the other Regional Transmission Organizations, are all short-term (or relatively short) forward markets. The introduction of these short-term markets beginning in the late 1990s introduces risks for investors in merchant generating plants 71 The Brattle Group, Cost-Benefit Analysis of Replacing the NYISO’s Existing ICAP Market with a Forward Capacity Market, June 15, 2009, prepared for the New York Independent System Operator, p. 10, footnotes omitted. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 31 9/19/12 that are distinctly different from risks associated with the traditional electric utility industry involving regulated utilities. Given the long-term nature of electricity investments, investment decisions in baseload generating capacity are being made on the basis of long-term market fundamentals rather than looking at short-term behavior of the spot or forward electricity markets. Investors take account of differences in risk levels in assessing the likely profitability of different types of power sector investments. The current market preference for gas-fired generation for baseload generation can be explained mainly by the perceived lower cost of gas-fired generation. The characteristics of the combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT)—its low capital cost and its operational flexibility—add to its attractiveness. The proliferation of CCGTs means that gas markets take on greater importance for power generation development, exposing investors to increased fuel price risk. The restructuring of electricity and natural gas markets has led to a system where, in the absence of long-term hedging possibilities, it is difficult to manage price risks, which must be assessed by probabilistic approaches. For the more traditional role played by combined cycle gas turbines as peaking plants, price risks are especially acute, because those plants depend upon prices in a low number of highpriced hours in each year. This raises the question as to whether competitive power markets can bring forward adequate peaking capacity. The current economic downturn has held down electricity prices and caused investors to look for strong companies with stable revenue flows and customer bases. Restructured electric markets have affected the way power plants are financed. Early enthusiasm about the benefits of the merchant power plant model has waned thanks to recent years of adverse investment experience. Due to substantial losses by companies with merchant plant investments, rising capital costs of new generators, and decreasing liquidity of electricity forward markets, it is currently difficult to obtain bank financing for new merchant power plants. The risks associated with the merchant plant model have persuaded many investors to find mechanisms to hedge these risks. Long-term purchase power contracts between producers and retailers or directly with consumers have emerged as one of the more important ways that investors can hedge the risks of competitive power markets. For the merchant generator, the shift from reliance on the short-term competitive power market to hedging market risk through long-term contracts is evident in a statement made by Lee Davis, NRG’s Regional PresidentNortheast, in an interview with Reuters in late 2011. Mr. Davis stated that NRG would be willing to invest in a new generating unit to replace the Indian Point Energy Center (in New York) under one condition: ‘All we need is a (power purchase) contract in hand with a creditworthy counterparty,’ Davis said and NRG can get the financing needed to build the Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 32 9/19/12 project…. ‘NYPA is obviously the one that stands out as the most likely … we expect NYPA to continue to write contracts for new units’ Davis said.72 2. Long-Term Markets The NYISO’s centralized markets are but one path to providing energy and ancillary services and securing capacity investment that provides reliable service at the lowest reasonable cost. Another path, which is commonly used in New York and across the country, is comprised of long-term bilateral transactions, including PPAs and hedging instruments among LSEs, suppliers, energy service companies, and financial institutions. A third path is self-supply. Long-term bilateral agreements and LSE-owned resources are not “out-of-market” paths to achieve service reliability but are instead the primary means by which customers and system operators have assured reliability for over a century, and by which they continue to assure reliability today. Indeed, the NYISO’s ICAP markets are a less desirable path for achieving and maintaining reliability and controlling costs because of their short-term and volatile nature. 3. Short-Term vs. Long-Term Markets A wholesale power market will produce spot energy market and spot capacity market price fluctuations that reflect moments of scarcity and surplus over a seasonal or business cycle. In addition, unpredictable changes in system configuration in real time produce price volatility, on top of the expected cyclical price swings. The most visible manifestations of price volatility are daily and hourly price fluctuations that could easily double or halve prices within an hour.73 In a competitive commodity market in which consumers have an option to face spot market prices, this kind of price volatility creates uncertainty for buyers and sellers about future spot prices that, in turn, creates risks that spot prices will be above or below expected values. For end users who face volatile spot market prices, the risks can be significant. The utilities and other LSEs with obligations to serve face similar market risks when regulated retail electricity rates are fixed. Hence, commercial end users and utilities naturally seek protection from price volatility that makes long-term planning more costly and finances risky. Generators will seek to protect themselves against the possibility that energy spot prices and capacity market spot prices might not be sufficient to cover production costs and capital costs. Therefore, buyers and sellers can obtain protection by entering into bilateral forward contracts for delivery of power and capacity at fixed (or indexed) prices. When buyers, such as NYPA or LIPA and municipalities and electric cooperatives, have an obligation to ensure sufficient capacity will be available to handle contingencies, they face uncertainty about whether a contingency will occur, and if it does, what price they would pay if 72 Reuters, Interview: NRG looks to replace power from Indian Point, available at http://www.ubs.wallst.com/ubs/mkt_story.asp?docKey=1329-S1E78M0HK-1&first=0 , October 8, 2011 (Reuters Article). 73 Price volatility can be exacerbated in tight supply situations when generators know that small exercises of market power can raise prices without triggering mitigation by market monitors. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 33 9/19/12 they purchased from the energy spot market and from the monthly ICAP auction market. Thus, LSEs will hedge at least a portion of the price risk by either owning supply (vertical integration) or by entering bilateral contracts for energy and capacity. 4. Capacity Markets The capacity market in New York State is a mixture of self-supply, bilateral contracts (i.e., PPAs), and the NYISO’s voluntary centralized ICAP market. The self-supply and bilateral contract options tend to offer long-term commitments for capacity to satisfy reserve requirements. These options also offer capacity price stability (i.e., predictability) that can facilitate utility planning and budgeting. In contrast, the NYISO’s ICAP market is a voluntary short-term market, except for the mandatory one-month-ahead market. From the LSE’s perspective, NYISO’s ICAP market functions as a backstop at times when the utility cannot satisfy its reserve requirements through self-supply and PPAs. The ICAP market standardizes the capacity product and provides greater liquidity and transparency than can be found generally in a bilateral market. While adding complexity in market design, these features are particularly beneficial in market environments with many small LSEs, retail competition, and migrating customer loads, as is the case in New York. It is informative that the FERC has recently issued an order regarding the implementation of a capacity market for MISO. This order reaffirms a previous order from 2008 that approved the use of a voluntary capacity market auction mechanism to complement the bilateral and utilityowned capacity market segments.74 The FERC’s reasons for approving a voluntary capacity market auction include: Consistent rejection of a “one-size-fits-all” approach due to significant differences among RTO regions;75 The voluntary nature of the centralized auction “allows LSEs and their regulators to maintain significant flexibility when developing resource plans based on their specific region;”76 MISO’s lack of justification for a mandatory forward capacity auction;77 and The auction’s opt-out provision “enables LSEs to manage how they will fulfill their capacity requirement” and “maintains the voluntary framework of the currently effective resource adequacy plan.”78 74 Midwest Independent System Operator, Inc., 139 FERC ¶ 61,199 (2012). 75 Id., P 37. 76 Id., P 39. 77 Id., P 40. 78 Id., P 41. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 34 9/19/12 V. CONCLUSIONS The record of the past twelve years shows that the capacity market structure in New York State has worked successfully to provide adequate generation resources through a combination of utility-owned supply, long-term PPAs between utilities and merchant plants, merchant plant development that relies on the NYISO’s centralized markets, and publicly funded renewable resource projects motivated by New York’s RPS and encouraged by NYSERDA and the federal production tax credit. This market structure has provided generation capacity where it is needed most, using diverse fuels and meeting a variety of renewable resources and environmental policy goals. This success has been achieved without resorting to a mandatory forward market such as those used by ISO New England and PJM. The current design does not require replacement by a mandatory forward centralized ICAP market. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 35 9/19/12 ATTACHMENT A. NEW YORK GENERATION BROUGHT IN-SERVICE, 2000–2012 Table 6 provides a listing of the generation built in New York during the past dozen years. The table covers new generation through April 2012, and does not include any generation placed in service since that time. Capacities are nameplate ratings, not net summer or winter ratings. Table 6 New York Generation Brought In-Service, 2000–201279 Owner, Operator, and/or Billing Organization Station Unit Zone In Service Year Name Plate Rating Unit Type Transaction Type Madison Windpower, LLC Madison Wind Power E 2000-09-01 11.6 WT Public Support Western New York Wind Corp. Western NY Wind Power B 2000-10-01 6.6 WT Public Support Standard Binghamton LLC Binghamton Cogen (Ret. 2/15/12) C 2001-03-01 47.7 GT Merchant Astoria Generating Company L.P. Astoria 2 (Ret. - 4/11/12) J 2001-05-01 180.0 ST Merchant Model City Energy LLC Model City Energy A 2001-06-01 5.6 IC Utility/Bilateral New York Power Authority Brentwood K 2001-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral New York Power Authority Gowanus 5 J 2001-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral New York Power Authority Gowanus 6 J 2001-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral New York Power Authority Harlem River 1 J 2001-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral New York Power Authority Harlem River 2 J 2001-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral New York Power Authority Hellgate 1 J 2001-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral New York Power Authority Hellgate 2 J 2001-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral New York Power Authority Kent J 2001-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral New York Power Authority Pouch J 2001-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral New York Power Authority Vernon Blvd 2 J 2001-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral New York Power Authority Vernon Blvd 3 J 2001-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Fenner Wind Power Fenner Wind Power C 2001-12-01 30.0 WT Public Support Jamestown Board of Public Utilities Jamestown 7 A 2002-01-01 47.3 GT Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Glenwood GT 04 K 2002-06-01 53.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Glenwood GT 05 K 2002-06-01 53.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Calpine Energy Service LP Bethpage GT4 K 2002-07-01 60.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Erie Blvd. Hydro - Oswegatchie Lower Newton Falls 1 E 2002-07-01 0.5 HY Utility/Bilateral Erie Blvd. Hydro - Oswegatchie Upper Newton Falls 2 E 2002-07-01 0.5 HY Utility/Bilateral Erie Blvd. Hydro - Oswegatchie Upper Newton Falls 3 E 2002-07-01 0.5 HY Utility/Bilateral Erie Blvd. Hydro - Oswegatchie Upper Newton Falls 4 E 2002-07-01 0.5 HY Utility/Bilateral 79 NYISO, 2012 Load & Capacity Data: “Gold Book,” Table II-2: Existing Generating Facilities, pp. 30–48. 2012 Gold Book covers new generation through April 2012. Any generation placed in service after April 2012 does not appear on this list. Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 36 9/19/12 Owner, Operator, and/or Billing Organization Station Unit Zone In Service Year Name Plate Rating Unit Type Transaction Type Long Island Power Authority Far Rockaway GT1 K 2002-07-01 60.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Port Jefferson GT 02 K 2002-07-01 53.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Port Jefferson GT 03 K 2002-07-01 53.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Pilgrim GT1 K 2002-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Pilgrim GT2 K 2002-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Shoreham GT3 K 2002-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Shoreham GT4 K 2002-08-01 50.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Far Rockaway GT2 K 2003-07-02 60.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Greenport GT1 K 2003-07-02 54.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Seneca Energy II, LLC Ontario LFGE C 2003-12-01 6.4 IC Utility/Bilateral Freeport Electric Freeport CT 2 K 2004-03-01 60.5 GT Utility/Bilateral Athens Generating Company, LP Athens 1 F 2004-05-01 441.0 CC Merchant Athens Generating Company, LP Athens 2 F 2004-05-01 441.0 CC Merchant Athens Generating Company, LP Athens 3 F 2004-05-01 441.0 CC Merchant TC Ravenswood, LLC Ravenswood CC 04 J 2004-05-01 250.0 CC Merchant Long Island Power Authority Freeport CT 1 K 2004-06-01 60.0 GT Utility/Bilateral Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. Mechanicville F 2005-03-01 2.0 HY Utility/Bilateral Consolidated Edison Co. of NY, Inc. East River 1 J 2005-04-01 185.0 CC Utility/Bilateral Consolidated Edison Co. of NY, Inc. East River 2 J 2005-04-05 189.0 CC Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Bethpage 3 K 2005-05-01 96.0 CC Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Pinelawn Power 1 K 2005-06-01 82.0 CC Utility/Bilateral PSEG Energy Resource & Trade, LLC Bethlehem Energy Center 1 F 2005-07-01 893.1 CC Merchant Flat Rock Windpower, LLC Maple Ridge Wind 1 E 2006-01-01 231.0 WT Public Support New York Power Authority Astoria CC 1 J 2006-01-01 288.0 CC Utility/Bilateral New York Power Authority Astoria CC 2 J 2006-01-01 288.0 CC Utility/Bilateral Modern Innovative Energy, LLC Modern LF A 2006-02-01 6.4 IC Merchant Innovative Energy Systems, Inc. Colonie LFGTE F 2006-03-01 4.8 IC Merchant Astoria Energy, LLC Astoria East Energy - CC1 J 2006-04-01 320.0 CC Astoria Energy, LLC Astoria East Energy - CC2 J 2006-04-01 320.0 CC Erie Blvd. Hydro - Seneca Oswego Oswego Falls W 6 C 2007-01-01 0.5 HY Public Support Erie Blvd. Hydro - Seneca Oswego Oswego Falls W 7 C 2007-01-01 0.5 HY Public Support Commerce Energy, Inc. Steel Wind A 2007-01-23 20.0 WT Public Support Mill Seat B 2007-07-20 6.4 IC Merchant Chaffee A 2007-08-09 6.4 IC Merchant Constellation Energy Commodities Group, Inc. Constellation Energy Commodities Group, Inc. 50% Utility/Bilateral 50% Utility/Bilateral Shell Energy North America (US), L.P. Munnsville Wind Power E 2007-08-20 34.5 WT Merchant New York State Elec. & Gas Corp. Broome LFGE C 2007-09-01 2.1 IC Merchant Flat Rock Windpower II, LLC Maple Ridge Wind 2 E 2007-12-01 90.8 WT Merchant Constellation Energy Commodities Group, Inc. High Acres 2 C 2008-02-28 6.4 IC Merchant Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 37 9/19/12 Owner, Operator, and/or Billing Organization Station Unit Zone In Service Year Name Plate Rating Unit Type Transaction Type Noble Bliss Windpark, LLC Bliss Wind Power A 2008-03-20 100.5 WT Public Support Noble Ellenburg Windpark, LLC Ellenburg Wind Power D 2008-03-31 81.0 WT Public Support Noble Clinton Windpark 1, LLC Clinton Wind Power D 2008-04-09 100.5 WT Public Support Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. Allied Frozen Storage A 2008-05-01 0.1 IC Utility/Bilateral Innovative Energy Systems, Inc. DANC LFGE E 2008-09-08 4.8 IC Merchant Innovative Energy Systems, Inc. Hyland LFGE B 2008-09-08 4.8 IC Merchant Noble Altona Windpark, LLC Altona Wind Power D 2008-09-23 97.5 WT Public Support Innovative Energy Systems, Inc. Clinton LFGE D 2008-10-01 6.4 IC Merchant Noble Chateaugay Windpark, LLC Chateaugay Wind Power D 2008-10-07 106.5 WT Public Support Canandaigua Power Partners, LLC Canandaigua Wind Power C 2008-12-05 125.0 WT Merchant Noble Wethersfield Windpark, LLC Wethersfield Wind Power C 2008-12-11 126.0 WT Public Support Sheldon Energy LLC High Sheldon Wind Farm C 2009-02-01 112.5 WT Public Support Erie Blvd. Hydro - Upper Hudson Sherman Island 6 F 2009-02-02 1.0 HY Public Support Delaware County Delaware LFGE E 2009-02-11 2.0 IC Merchant Erie Blvd. Hydro - Upper Hudson Sherman Island 1 F 2009-03-01 8.0 HY Public Support Long Island Power Authority Caithness_CC_1 K 2009-08-01 375.0 CC Utility/Bilateral E 2009-11-01 1.1 CG Utility/Bilateral E 2009-11-01 2.2 CG Utility/Bilateral Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. Burrstone Energy Center, LLC Burrstone Energy Center, LLC Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. Edison Hydro Electric F 2009-11-01 0.0 HY Not Included Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. Finch Paper LLC - Glens Falls F 2009-11-01 0.0 HY Not Included Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. Moutainaire Massage Spa F 2009-11-01 0.0 HY Not Included Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. Oakvale Construction D 2009-11-01 0.0 HY Not Included Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. Tri-City JATC F 2009-11-01 0.0 IC Not Included Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. United States Gypsum A 2009-11-01 0.0 CG Not Included Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. Wave Hydro LLC C 2010-02-07 0.8 HY Merchant Innovative Energy Systems, Inc. Chautauqua LFGE A 2010-02-12 9.6 IC Merchant Constellation Energy Commodities Group, Inc. Madison County LF E 2010-03-01 1.6 IC Merchant Innovative Energy Systems, Inc. Fulton LFGE F 2010-06-04 3.2 IC Merchant Empire Generating Co, LLC EMPIRE_CC_1 F 2010-09-02 335.0 CC Merchant Empire Generating Co, LLC EMPIRE_CC_2 F 2010-09-02 335.0 CC Merchant Stephentown Regulation Services LLC Beacon LESR F 2010-11-29 20.0 ES Merchant AES ES Westover LLC Westover LESR C 2010-12-13 8.0 ES Merchant Hardscrabble Wind Power LLC Hardscrabble Wind E 2011-02-01 74.0 WT Public Support Astoria Energy II, LLC Astoria Energy 2 - CC3 J 2011-07-01 330.0 CC Utility/Bilateral Astoria Energy II, LLC Astoria Energy 2 - CC4 J 2011-07-01 330.0 CC Utility/Bilateral K 2011-11-01 31.5 PV Utility/Bilateral Long Island Power Authority Howard Wind LLC Howard Wind C 2011-12-01 51.3 WT Public Support First Wind Energy, LLC Erie Wind A 2012-02-01 15.0 WT Merchant Christensen Associates Energy Consulting, LLC 38 9/19/12