The Sc ottish Parliament and Scottis h Parliament Infor mation C entre l ogos .
SPICe Briefing
Climate Change: Subject Profile
25 May 2016
16/41
Dan Barlow
This briefing is written for the benefit of both new MSPs and those returning to the Parliament. It
provides an overview of the main climate change issues. It highlights the latest climate science,
outlines the global, EU, UK frameworks for addressing climate change and focuses on the main
legislative and policy provisions in Scotland. The briefing also sets out how emissions in
Scotland have reduced to date and some of the ways that climate change issues have been
considered in previous parliamentary sessions. More detailed briefings on climate change
topics will be produced throughout the parliamentary session.
Observed change in average surface temperature 1901-2012
Source: IPCC 2013a, Figure SPM 1b
CONTENTS
KEY POINTS ................................................................................................................................................................ 3
GLOBAL CONTEXT .................................................................................................................................................... 4
CLIMATE SCIENCE ................................................................................................................................................. 4
IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY................................................................................................... 4
MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ..................................................................................................................... 5
THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC) .............................. 6
INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS........................................................................................................ 6
Paris 2015 ............................................................................................................................................................ 6
EUROPE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 11
TARGETS............................................................................................................................................................... 11
EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS .................................................................................................................. 11
EMISSIONS TRADING SYSTEM .......................................................................................................................... 12
EU INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION .......................................................................... 12
UNITED KINGDOM .................................................................................................................................................... 12
UK CLIMATE CHANGE ACT ................................................................................................................................. 12
UK AMBITION AND PARIS 2015 OUTCOMES ..................................................................................................... 13
SCOTLAND ................................................................................................................................................................ 13
CLIMATE CHANGE (SCOTLAND) ACT 2009 ....................................................................................................... 13
Annual Targets ................................................................................................................................................... 14
Report on Proposals and Policies ...................................................................................................................... 14
Mandatory reporting ........................................................................................................................................... 15
EMISSION REDUCTIONS TO DATE .................................................................................................................... 15
MEETING OUR FUTURE TARGETS .................................................................................................................... 16
MULTIPLE BENEFITS ........................................................................................................................................... 17
CLIMATE BILL PROPOSAL ................................................................................................................................... 17
ADAPTATION......................................................................................................................................................... 18
Scotland’s Approach to Date ............................................................................................................................. 18
CLIMATE CHANGE ‘MAINSTREAMING’ IN THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ...................................................... 19
Draft Scottish Budget ......................................................................................................................................... 19
Report on Proposals and Policies (RPP2) ......................................................................................................... 20
CLIMATE JUSTICE ................................................................................................................................................ 20
CLIMATE CHANGE SCRUTINY DURING SESSION 4 OF THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ............................... 21
SOURCES .................................................................................................................................................................. 22
RELATED BRIEFINGS .............................................................................................................................................. 26
2
KEY POINTS
Key policy action / legislation
Future developments
Climate Change Bill
The SNP manifesto includes a commitment to bring forward
a new Climate Change Bill. The commitment includes
setting a target to reduce emissions by at least 50% by
2020.
The Third Report on Proposals
and Policies (Meeting the
Emissions Reduction Targets
2028-2032).
The Scottish Government are developing their next plan that
sets how they intend to meet their forthcoming climate
change goals (Report on Proposals and Polices 3). It is
expected that a draft of this plan will be laid in the Scottish
Parliament later in 2016 for Parliamentary scrutiny.
Scottish Government annual
Data on Scottish greenhouse gas emissions in 2014 is
assessments of greenhouse gas expected to be published in June 2016. The report will
emissions in Scotland.
highlight whether Scotland met the fifth annual emission
reduction target.
Climate Change Adaptation
Programme
The UK Committee on Climate Change are due to publish
their first assessment of Scotland’s progress implementing
the Climate Change Adaptation Programme in 2016.
3
GLOBAL CONTEXT
Under the auspices of the United Nations, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) prepare comprehensive reports about climate change at regular intervals based on the
most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information. The Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5) sets out the current state of scientific knowledge and comprises three Working Group
reports that cover:

the science of climate change

impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change

mitigation of climate change.
CLIMATE SCIENCE
Working Group I (WG1) (IPCC 2013a) reports that observations of climate change include an
average increase in land and ocean temperature of 0.85 oC between 1880 and 2012, reductions
in annual mean Arctic sea ice equivalent to 3.5 - 4.1% per decade between 1979 and 2012 and
a rise in global mean sea level of 0.19m between 1901 and 2010.
The IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC 2013b) states that:
‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the
observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and
ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen,
and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.’
The report also states that ‘It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant
cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century’ and that ‘substantial and sustained’
cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would be required to curb climate change. The report sets
out four emission scenarios. In three of these temperatures are likely to exceed 1.5 oC by 2100
(compared to 1850-1900), and in two scenarios they are likely to exceed 2oC.
IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY
Climate change adaptation is defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC
2001) as ‘adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities’.
As a result of the release of greenhouse gas emissions to date impacts of climate change are
already being observed. These relate to increases in global average and air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level. Past
and current greenhouse gas emissions also mean that the world is committed to some level of
further climate change in the future, and the IPCC (2007) note that ‘even the most stringent
mitigation efforts cannot avoid further impacts of climate change in the next few decades’.
The report of Working Group II (WGII) (IPCC 2014a) highlights impacts that include changes in
the quantity and quality of water resources, changes in the geographic range and abundance of
many species, and an overall reduction in crop yields. It also notes that marginalised people are
particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The report finds that experience is
growing in the public and private sector and within communities, and governments are
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beginning to prepare adaptation plans and policies. The report notes that greater warming will
increase the likelihood of ‘severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts’.
MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Working Group III (WGIII) (IPCC 2014b) considers the mitigation of climate change. The report
identifies the four largest sources of emissions in 2010 as i) electricity and heat production, ii)
agriculture, forestry and land use, iii) industry and iv) transport. Emissions from electricity and
heat are further broken down to reflect how the electricity and heat are consumed and these are
sometimes referred to as ‘indirect’ emissions (Figure 1)
Figure 1 - Global greenhouse gas emissions by sector
Source: IPCC 2014b SPM.2
Between 2000 and 2010 greenhouse gas emissions increased by an average of 2.2% per year.
The report cites economic growth and population growth as the two most significant drivers of
increasing CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion.
According to the WGIII report scenarios consistent with achieving carbon dioxide concentrations
in the atmosphere that are ‘likely’ to limit warming to less than 2 oC above pre-industrial levels
are characterised by reductions in global GHG emissions of 40 to 70% in 2050 compared to
2010, rapid increases in energy efficiency and more than tripling the share of zero- and lowcarbon energy supply by 2050.
The WGIII report highlights that despite a significant increase in plans and strategies aimed at
curbing climate emissions there has “not yet been a substantial deviation in global emissions
from the past trend.” The authors also suggest that delays to mitigation efforts will make the
transition to low emission levels over the longer-term more challenging and constrain the
options available to ensure that temperature rise is limited to below 2 oC.
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A more detailed summary of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report is available in a SPICe briefing
published in September 2014 (Barlow 2014).
THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
(UNFCCC)
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international
environmental treaty. The treaty was negotiated at the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development (UNCED) in 1992. This conference is more widely known as the
Earth Summit.
The objective of the treaty is to ‘stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’ (United
Nations 1992). The treaty does not set binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual
countries, however it provides a basis for negotiating specific treaties or ‘protocols’ to establish
binding limits on emissions of greenhouse gasses.
INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS
To date 196 countries have signed up to the Convention and these are referred to as Parties.
These countries have met annually since 1995 in meetings referred to as Conferences of the
Parties (COP).
Under this framework a number of global initiatives and commitments on climate change have
been achieved to date. In 1997 (COP3) the Kyoto Protocol was agreed setting out a legally
binding commitment for developed countries to reduce emissions by 2012. In 2010 the Cancún
agreements noted that future global warming should be limited to less than 2oC above pre
industrial levels. At Durban in 2011 (COP17) over 120 countries proposed that a legal
framework for reducing emissions be completed by 2015 and come into effect no later than
2020. In 2013 (COP19) countries agreed to submit national plans for emission reductions by
the first quarter or 2015 and for developed countries to make funding available to support
developing countries reduce their emissions and adapt to climate change.
More information about the UNFCCC (often referred to as ‘the Convention’), the outcomes of
the annual meetings on climate change (Conferences of the Parties (COP)) held as part of the
Convention, and background to the Paris 2015 meeting (COP21) are available in a SPICe
briefing published in October 2015 (Barlow 2015).
Paris 2015
The last COP meeting took place in place in Paris in December 2015. The meeting sought to
secure an agreement that binds nations to a global approach that reduces emissions in line with
keeping global mean surface temperature rise to less than 2 oC. As part of this initiative
countries were asked to prepare and submit their emission reduction plans and proposals in
advance.
6
The meeting resulted in the adoption of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC 2015) under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The agreement is
accompanied by a longer document detailing the decisions made at the summit.
The Paris Agreement is a legally binding document and includes a mix of legally binding
commitments (e.g. ‘countries shall’) and non-legally binding commitments (e.g. ‘countries
should’) (Sindico, 2015, New Climate Institute, 2015). No enforcement mechanism exists to
penalise any party that does not comply, however the agreement establishes a committee that
shall be ‘transparent, non-adversarial and non-punitive’ and ‘facilitate implementation and
promote compliance’ with the agreement.
Key provisions
The agreement makes a number of provisions. Some of the key aspects are summarised
below.
Temperature
The agreement states that global average temperature rise should be limited to ‘well below’ 2 oC
and includes a commitment to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 oC above
pre-industrial levels.
Context:
At the UN climate summit COP meeting in 2010 global leaders signed up to the Cancun
agreements noting that future global warming should be limited to less than 2 oC above preindustrial levels. A number of scientists have suggested that the global to limit average
temperature to below 2 oC is not sufficient. Many countries, including those that are particularly
low lying and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change have also previously advocated a goal
of limiting warming to 1.5 oC. To date global temperature has risen by approaching 1 oC (Met
Office 2015).
Emissions peaking
The agreement states that parties should aim for global greenhouse gas emissions to peak ‘as
soon as possible’ and be followed by ‘rapid reductions’ in emissions to secure a balance
between emissions of greenhouse gases and removals by sinks (for example forests) ‘in the
second half of this century’. The agreement also states that developed countries should secure
economy-wide emission reduction targets with developing countries ‘encouraged’ to move
towards such targets over time.
Context:
The global temperature rise is largely determined by the total amount of greenhouse gas
emissions released – often referred to as cumulative emissions. The IPCC suggest that limiting
global warming caused by human activity to less than 2 oC requires total CO2 emissions from all
human sources to be limited to, in total, 2900 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2). By 2011
around 1900 GtCO2 had been released leaving a budget of approximately 1000 GtCO 2 (IPCC
2014b).
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The later that global emissions peak, the steeper the following emissions reduction must
be for cumulative emissions to be consistent with those required to limit warming to 2 oC.
Work led by the Met Office (2012) has previously suggested that on the basis of their scenarios,
it is not possible to limit global warming to 1.5 oC:
‘The greenhouse gas emissions pathways generated by the models used in this study
could not find a feasible path to a 50% chance of global temperature rise of less than 1.6
°C. A 1.6 °C limit could only be adhered to by designing a pathway at the absolute
extremes of what is presently considered feasible’
The authors have suggested that on the basis of a 50% chance of being able to limit warming to
2 oC emissions must start to fall by 2016 and then decline at a rate of 3.5% if techniques aimed
at removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere net negative emissions) are not included
(see discussion later on net negative emissions).
Ambition review
The agreement includes a ‘global stocktake’ every 5 years to assess overall progress towards
the goals of the agreement, starting in 2023. Alongside this the agreement includes a
commitment that all countries will share details of a nationally determined contribution every 5
years. The agreement requires a ‘progression over time’ in the efforts that Parties make
towards achieving the goals of the agreement.
Context
In 2014 all countries signed up to the UNFCCC agreed to set out the actions and commitments
they would take towards the goal of tackling climate change in advance of the Paris 2015
Climate Summit. This information takes the form of an ‘intended nationally determined
contribution’ or INDC. In October 2015 the UNFCCC published a report on the 146 Intended
Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) that had been received by 1 October. The INDCs
submitted included those by the America, China, the EU and India. The emission reduction
commitments included in the INDCs fall short of those required to limit global average
temperature increase to below 2 oC (UNFCCC 2015a). Analysis by Climate Action Tracker
(2015) has suggested that the pledges would result in warming of around 2.7 oC. (Figure 2).
The text accompanying the agreement identifies the need to address the gap between ambition
and the commitments set out in the INDCs and states:
‘...the estimated aggregate greenhouse gas emission levels in 2025 and 2030 resulting
from the intended nationally determined contributions do not fall within least-cost 2 oC
scenarios….much greater emission reduction efforts will be required than those
associated with the nationally determined contributions in order to hold the increase in
the global average temperature to below 2 oC above pre-industrial levels by reducing
emissions to 40 gigatonnes or to 1.5 oC above pre-industrial levels’
Climate finance
The agreement requires developed countries to provide financial support to developing
countries to help them reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change and states
that the minimum should be USD 100 billion per year by 2020. The agreement includes a
commitment that this level of funding extend until 2025 when a new finance goal would be
agreed. The agreement states that the allocation of financial resources should achieve a
balance between mitigation and adaptation and reflect the priorities and needs of developing
8
countries – especially those that have limited capacity and are particularly exposed to the
adverse impacts of climate change. The agreement also requires developed countries to ‘take
the lead’ in securing finance from a variety of sources that help support climate action.
Context
There is a significant variation in the amount of emissions that different countries are
responsible for, and their ability to prevent and adapt to the impacts of climate change. The
UNFCCC recognises the need for those countries with more resources to support those that
have more limited resources and are more vulnerable, and has established approaches to
provide this funding. In 2013 developed country members of the UNFCCC were requested to
share details every two years reflecting their strategies and approaches to increase climate
finance over the period 2014-2020.
In their report ‘Biennial Assessment and Overview of Climate Finance Flows’ the UNFCCC
estimate that financing from developed to developed countries and reported to the UNFCCC is
estimated at $28.775 billion in 2011 and $28.863 billion in 2012 (UNFCCC 2014).
Adaptation
The agreement places considerable emphasis on adaptation and establishes a goal of
‘enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate
change.’ To support the implementation of this goal the agreement:

Requires all parties ‘as appropriate’ to plan and implement adaptation efforts.

Suggests that parties report on adaptation, including the provision of details of their
priorities and need for support.

Requires that the five-year global stock take of progress considers progress towards the
adaptation goal and the level of support provided for adaptation.
Context
Under the UNFCCC a number of commitments have been made to support climate adaptation.
In 2001 a programme of work was launched aimed at supporting Least Developed Countries
(LDCs) to identify and report their adaptation needs. In 2011 the Cancun Adaptation
Programme was adopted to bolster action on climate adaptation and included commitments for
developed countries to provide finance, technology and capacity building support to developing
countries. Many developing countries were keen that the Paris agreement further strengthened
commitments on adaptation.
Issues and challenges
Ambition vs. commitments
As noted above a gap exists between the scale of the ambition reflected in the agreement and
the emission reduction pledges that participating parties have provided to date.
The agreement sets out a commitment to limit temperature rise to less than 2 oC and an
aspiration to limit it to 1.5 oC. The current INDC commitments would result in temperature rise of
approximately 2.7 oC and projected global emissions of 55 GtCO2e in 2030. In order to deliver
the ambition set out in the agreement the INDC review process will need result in an aggregate
increase in INDC emission reduction commitments. In addition the agreement does not include
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a specific date by which global emissions need to peak. Analysis by Climate Action Tracker
(2015) provides a projection of greenhouse gas emissions based on current policies, pledges
and submitted INDCs and those consistent with limiting warming to 2 oC and 1.5 oC.
Figure 2 – A comparison of greenhouse gas emissions based on current policies,
pledges and submitted INDCs and those consistent with limiting warming to 2 oC and 1.5
o
C.
Source: http://climateactiontracker.org/global.html
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Negative emissions approaches
The agreement refers to achieving ‘a balance between anthropogenic1 emissions by sources
and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century’. Most of the
emission scenarios associated with limiting global warming to 2 oC that the IPCC (2014c)
considered rely on both reducing emissions at source and using negative emission technologies
in the form of afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in the
second half of this century2. A number of experts and stakeholders have cautioned against the
emphasis on BECCS. Kevin Anderson (Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research UK) has questioned the scale and ‘speculative’ nature of relying heavily on
BECCS, suggesting instead that the focus should be on rapid reductions in energy demand and
replacing fossil fuels with zero-carbon alternatives (Anderson 2015).
EUROPE
TARGETS
The EU set a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020 (from 1990 levels)
and these were enacted in legislation in 2009. In 2011 the European Commission published A
roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050, the document suggests that
the EU should cut emissions by 80% below 1990 levels and identifies milestones of a 40% cut
by 2030 and 60% cut by 2040 (European Commission 2011).
More recently as part of the 2030 climate and energy framework adopted by EU leaders in
October 2014 the EU agreed a target to cut emissions by at least 40% by 2030 (from 1990
levels). According to the EU achieving the 40% target would require a 43% cut in emissions
from those sectors covered by the EU emissions trading system (ETS) (compared to 2005) and
30% cut in emissions from non-ETS sectors (compared to 2005).
EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS
As part of the EU low carbon economy roadmap the European Commission undertook some
scenario analysis and modelling to consider the potential reductions that could be achieved on a
sector-by-sector basis in line with achieving an overall cut in emissions of 80% by 2050. Their
emission reduction pathways (European Commission 2011) suggest:

A complete decarbonisation of the power sector.

Cuts in emissions from transport of between 54% and 67% as a result of improved
vehicle efficiency, electrification and pricing mechanisms.

A reduction in emissions from the building sector of around 90% as a result of improved
efficiency and the deployment of low carbon/renewable energy.
1
Anthropogenic emissions are those greenhouse gas emissions that are a result of human activities, for example
from the burning of fossil fuels.
2
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has the potential to result in as the biomass used to create
energy (e.g. trees and crops) absorb carbon emissions during their growth and emissions created when the
biomass is burned can be captured using carbon capture and storage.
11

Reductions in emissions from the industrial sector of between 83 and 87% by 2050
through improved industrial processes, more recycling and abatement technologies (for
example carbon capture and storage).

Cuts in emissions from agriculture of between 42% and 49% achieved through a variety
of approaches that include better manure management, fertiliser efficiency and practices
that sequester carbon in the soil.
EMISSIONS TRADING SYSTEM
The EU ETS is a tool designed to cut greenhouse gas emissions from large-scale facilities in
the power and industry sectors and from aviation. Emissions from this sector are referred to as
the ‘traded sector’. The ETS is a ‘cap and trade’ system. A cap is set which limits the total
volume of emissions from all participants within the system. Within this cap organisations are
allocated or can buy emissions allowances and each year they need to surrender allowances
that are equivalent to their emissions. The cap is reduced over time so that overall emissions
from the ‘traded’ sector fall. Emissions from other sectors are described as being in the ‘nontraded’ sector - examples include residential, transport, agriculture.
The ETS covers around 45% of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions.
A number of groups have argued for the ETS to be strengthened and for the cap on emissions
available under the ETS to be reduced (Sandbag 2013, Sandbag 2016).
EU INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION
The INDC submitted by the EU in the run up to Paris 2015 (UNFCCC 2015) commits the EU to
a 40% reduction by 2030. However as noted by the CCC (2015a) given that current global
emission cut pledges fall short of those required to meet the ambition of the agreement some
nations will have to ‘ratchet up effort – potentially over relatively short periods of time.’ The
CCC have suggested that this ‘might include the EU as a whole’.
The CCC (CCC 2015b) has suggested that the EU 2030 target is less than equivalent to a ‘fair’
EU share of an emissions reduction pathway compatible with achieving a 2 oC limit. The CCC
also provide an estimate of what would constitute a fair share of reductions to achieve a 2 oC
warming for EU and suggest that an emission reduction target for 2030 should range from 4571%.
UNITED KINGDOM
UK CLIMATE CHANGE ACT
The Climate Change Act 2008 commits the UK to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least
80% from 1990 levels by 2050. The Act also

Requires the Government to set up interim five-yearly ‘carbon budgets’ for GHG
emissions.

Establishes the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) to provide advice to the
Government on emissions targets and report on progress towards these.
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
Requires the Government to produce a National Adaptation Plan that assesses the risks
to the UK from climate change and prepares a strategy to address them.
The first four carbon budgets have been set in legislation and the UK is currently in the second
carbon budget period (2013–17). According to the CCC (2015), meeting the fourth carbon
budget (2023–27) would require a 50% cut in emissions by 2025 compared to 1990. Between
1990 and 2014 greenhouse gas emissions in the UK have been reduced by 36%.
The Government are due to set the fifth carbon budget (2028-2032) in law by June and the CCC
have recommended that the budget achieves a 57% reduction in emissions from 1990 to 2030.
The Committee (CCC 2015a) state that emissions from the traded sector are set to be cut by
54% by 2030 and their proposed reduction would therefore match cuts from the traded sector
with reductions from the non-traded sector (e.g. transport, buildings). According to the UK CCC
‘A less ambitious fifth budget would therefore mean either a back-tracking on existing
commitments (i.e. the fourth carbon budget) or a failure to progress towards 2050. Such
a stop-start approach would store up bigger costs for the future, and would run counter to
the recent Paris Agreement, which called for action to increase.’
UK AMBITION AND PARIS 2015 OUTCOMES
The CCC (CCC 2015b) has suggested that the EU 2030 target is less than equivalent to a ‘fair’
EU share of an emissions reduction pathway compatible with achieving a 2 oC limit. The CCC
also provide an estimate of what would constitute a fair share of reductions to achieve a 2 oC
warming for both the EU and UK and suggest that for the UK this would be 53-80% (this reflects
a higher reduction for the UK than the EU wide reduction on the basis of it being one of the
wealthiest nations and having had high historic emissions).
The CCC have not provided revised UK figure for 2030 compatible with a 1.5 oC goal rather
than 2 oC goal.
SCOTLAND
CLIMATE CHANGE (SCOTLAND) ACT 2009
In 2009 the Scottish Parliament passed the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill unanimously. The
Act comprises of the following six parts:
Part 1: Creates the framework for achieving emission cuts and sets an interim target of at least
a 42% cut by 2020 and at least 80% cut by 2050. This part also requires the Scottish Ministers
to set annual targets in secondary legislation in batches for the period 2010 to 2050. Part 1 also
requires the Scottish Government to take advice before they set annual targets (currently
provided by the UK Committee on Climate Change).
Part 2: Enables Scottish Ministers to establish a Scottish Committee on Climate Change or
designate an existing body to provide the advisory functions required.
Part 3: Requires Scottish Ministers to provide regular reports to the Scottish Parliament on
Scotland’s emissions and progress towards meeting the targets.
Part 4: Places duties on Scottish public bodies to contribute towards meeting the emission
targets set in or under the Act.
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Part 5: Makes a range of further provisions including a requirement on Scottish Ministers to set
out a climate change adaptation programme, produce a land use strategy and publish plans to
promote energy efficiency and renewable heat.
Part 6: requires Scottish Ministers to prepare a public engagement strategy and accompany
the draft budget proposals as they are laid before Parliament with a report setting out the
greenhouse gas emissions associated with the planned spend.
Annual Targets
Unlike the 2020 and 2050 targets the annual targets are set as actual numbers i.e. the tonnage
by which emissions must be reduced. The annual targets have to be set in batches. Two
batches have already been set:

2010–2022;

2023–2027;
The next batch covering the period 2028-2032 must be set no later than 31 October 2016.
The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 requires that subsequent to each batch of annual
targets being set the Scottish Government must lay a draft report detailing the proposals and
policies for meeting annual targets before the Scottish Parliament ‘as soon as reasonably
practicable’.
Report on Proposals and Policies
After setting each batch of annual targets, section 35 of the Act requires Ministers to produce a
plan outlining specific proposals and policies (RPP) for meeting those targets, and describing
how these proposals and polices contribute to the 2020 and 2050 targets. A ‘policy’ is defined
as ‘a course of action which has already been wholly or largely decided upon’. A ‘proposal’ is
defined as a ‘suggested course of action, the details of which might change as this course of
action is explored further.’
The plan, ‘Low Carbon Scotland: Meeting the Emissions Reduction Targets 2010-2022: The
Report on Proposals and Policies’ (Scottish Government 2011), often known as RPP1 was
published in 2011. The second iteration of the plan, Low Carbon Scotland: Meeting our
Emissions Reduction Targets 2013-2027. The Second Report on Proposals and Policies, often
knows as RPP2 was published in June 2013 (Scottish Government 2013).
RPP2 is structured to reflect the following key emission sectors:






Energy
Homes and Communities
Business, Industry and the Public Sector
Transport
Waste and Resource Efficiency
Rural Land Use
The Scottish Government have stated that they plan to lay the next draft RPP (detailing
proposals and policies to meet Scotland’s emission reduction targets to 2032) in the Scottish
Parliament ‘towards the end of 2016’ (Scottish Government 2015a).
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Mandatory reporting
Part 4 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act (the Act) places climate change duties on public
bodies. The duties require that, in exercising its functions a public body acts:
‘(a) in the way best calculated to contribute to the delivery of the targets set in or
under Part 1 of this Act;
(b) in the way best calculated to help deliver any programme laid before the Scottish
Parliament under section 53;
(c) in a way that it considers is most sustainable.’
The duties came into force on 1 January 2011 and apply to all public bodies, defined with the
Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002. The Act also provides for Ministers, by order to

Impose other climate change duties.

Require reports on compliance with climate change duties.

Designate one or more bodies or persons to monitor compliance with the duties and
undertake investigations into a relevant public body’s compliance with the duties.
In November 2014 the Scottish Government announced their intention to make Climate Change
Reporting mandatory across the public sector. Following a consultation in 2015 the Scottish
Parliament agreed The Climate Change (Duties of Public Bodies: Reporting Requirements)
(Scotland) Order 2015. The Order requires specified Scottish public authorities (referred to as
‘listed bodies’) to produce annual reports detailing their compliance with their climate change
duties and to provide these to the Scottish Government within 8 months of the end of the
financial year.
EMISSION REDUCTIONS TO DATE
To date Scotland’s emissions have reduced by 38% since 1990 (Scottish Government 2015b)
however progress across sectors varies considerably as reflected in Figure 3. Emission cuts of
30% from energy and 70% from waste contrast with reductions of just 2% from transport and
12% from homes. Cuts in emissions to date have been attributed not only to specific policies (at
a Scotland, UK and EU level) but also the economic downturn and the closure of Ravenscraig
steel works.
Also shown in Figure 3 are the emissions from each sector if all policies and proposals from
RPP2 achieve their estimated emission reduction by 2020. All emission sectors are, to varying
extents, making progress towards a low carbon Scotland. Policies and proposals in the
residential sector have the potential to increase the rate of abatement towards 2020. Transport
has made only small reductions since 1990 and will potentially be the largest emitting sector in
2020. Unless additional policies are implemented agriculture emission reductions between 2012
and 2020 will be, at best, about half of those achieved between 1990 and 2012.
15
Figure 3: Scotland’s emissions by sector for 1990, 2013 and estimated for 2020.
Whilst on track to hit an interim target of 42% emissions reductions by 2020, Scotland has
missed annual targets for the past four years. The Scottish Government attributed missing
these targets as follows:
2010: ‘an increase in emissions from residential heating attributable to the extreme cold
weather experienced at the start and end of 2010; and revisions to historical data’
(Scottish Government 2013).
2011: ‘revisions to the historic greenhouse gas emissions data, as a result of new data
and latest changes in methodology’ (Scottish Government 2013b).
2012: ‘an increase in residential emissions, due to greater space heating of homes,
which is associated with cooler temperatures in that year and by changes in the fuel mix
for electricity production’ (Scottish Government 2014a).
2013: ‘the impact of successive revisions to the greenhouse gas inventory.’ (Scottish
Government 2015c).
The Scottish Government have set out in detail the impact of successive revisions to Scotland’s
emissions baseline (Scottish Government 2015c).
Emissions data for Scotland for 2014, including details of whether Scotland has met the fifth
annual climate target are expected to be published in June 2016.
MEETING OUR FUTURE TARGETS
Some of the reductions to date have been achieved by focusing on the ‘low hanging fruit’ –
changes that are most cost effective or publicly acceptable. Making Scotland’s long term
climate goals a reality is likely to involve some more wide-ranging changes to our transport,
energy, buildings and land use systems. As an indication of the kind of outcomes that would be
required, the CCC (2016) as advisors to the Scottish Government have suggested that
scenarios compatible with our climate goals would see:

An electricity system powered solely by renewables, or generation fitted with carbon
capture by 2030.
16

Two-thirds of new cars and vans sold being electric by 2030.

Nearly a fifth of our homes fitted with heat pumps by 2030 (430,000 heat pumps
installed), and

16,000 hectares of land planted with trees each year.
Such scenarios would require the equivalent of an 8 fold increase in the amount of energy
generated from wind (compared to 2013), a 65 fold increase in the proportion of new vehicles
that are sold being electric and a doubling of the rate of tree planting. While ambitious,
examples elsewhere in Europe should provide some confidence in achieving such goals. In
2015 nearly 30% of all cars sold in Norway in 2015 were electric (gas2org 2016, in 2014 Austria
generated renewable electricity equivalent to 70% of their gross electricity use (Eurostat 2016)
and in a number of European countries sales of heat pumps now exceed 100,000 each year
(EurObserv’ER 2015).
MULTIPLE BENEFITS
Achieving a low carbon Scotland provides opportunities to replicate approaches that have been
tried and tested elsewhere and develop new ones in areas where Scotland faces distinct
challenges (for example associated with improving the energy efficiency of our many solid wall
properties) or has a particular niche (for example maximising Scotland’s significant marine
energy potential). There are also significant opportunities to use approaches that offer benefits
beyond cutting climate emissions, for example:

Transforming the energy efficiency of our housing stock offers opportunities to cut fuel
poverty and create green jobs across Scotland.

Reducing our reliance on petrol and diesel vehicles can help cut air pollution and the
associated threats this poses to public health.

Boosting the amount we walk and cycle could help tackle obesity.

Cutting the amount of meat and dairy in our diets and replacing this with alternatives
could help reduce cancer and heart disease.
The SPICe Briefing Good for climate, good for health (Finney, 2015) explores in more detail a
number of approaches that provide opportunities to cut emissions and improve health.
CLIMATE BILL PROPOSAL
The SNP manifesto 2016 (SNP 2016) makes a commitment to bring forward plans for a new
Climate Change Bill:
‘In response to the historic agreement signed at the UN Climate talks in Paris last year
we will bring forward a new Climate Change Bill which will strengthen our ambition further
and set a new target to reduce emissions by more than 50 per cent by 2020.’
The manifesto also refers to a proposal to change the approach used to count emissions in
Scotland. The current approach progress towards achieving Scotland’s emission reduction
targets is determined on the basis of something called the Net Scottish Emissions Account
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(NSEA). The NSEA reflects greenhouse gas emissions from sources in Scotland and the effect
of the sale and purchase of carbon units (emission allowances) under the ETS (the Scottish
Government have provided more details about the Scottish Government’s approach to counting
Scotland’s emissions (Scottish Government 2015b).
ADAPTATION
Global temperatures have risen by approximately 1 oC above pre-industrial levels and Scotland
is already exposed to a number of impacts associated with climate change and as a result of the
legacy of past and current emissions, further impacts are inevitable (Defra 2012). The UK
Climate Projections (UKCP09) provides the most comprehensive assessment of future climate
from the present to 2100 for the UK. The projections are produced by the Met Office Hadley
Centre in collaboration with the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP).
Under Section 56 of the Climate Change Act 2008 the UK Government is required to produce 5yearly assessments of the current and predicted impact of climate change on the United
Kingdom. The first Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) was published in January
2012. This document draws heavily on UKCP09, pulls together evidence and analysis on the
threats and opportunities presented by the changing climate up until 2100 and includes an
assessment for Scotland.
It is projected that Scotland will experience:
 Higher temperatures in summer and winter.
 Increased winter rainfall.
 Decreased summer rainfall.
 More heavy rainfall days in summer and winter.
 A rise in relative sea level.
Scotland’s Approach to Date
Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework
In 2009 the Scottish Government published a Climate Adaptation Framework (Scottish
Government 2009). The framework set out set an overarching model for adapting to climate
change in Scotland and summaries of climate change adaptation in key sectors. Alongside the
framework 12 sector action plans were published relating to agriculture, biodiversity, built
environment, business, emergency and rescue services, energy, forestry, health, marine, spatial
planning and land use, transport and water.
Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Programme
Part 5, Chapter 1 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 sets out the requirement for the
Scottish Government to publish an adaptation programme:
‘The Scottish Ministers must lay a programme before the Scottish Parliament. This
programme must set out the Scottish Ministers’ objectives in relation to adaptation to
climate change, their proposals and policies for meeting those objectives, including the
timescales within which the proposals and policies will be introduced and otherwise
address the risks identified for Scotland in the Secretary of State’s report. It must also
outline arrangements to ensure engagement with stakeholders in delivering the
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programme, specifically with employers and trade unions and what mechanisms will be
used to ensure the public is engaged in meeting the objectives.’
In May 2014 the Scottish Government published Climate Ready Scotland Scottish Climate
Change Adaptation Programme (Scottish Government 2014) to address the risks identified in
the CCRA.
The Programme identifies an overall aim: “to increase the resilience of Scotland’s people,
environment and economy to the impacts of a changing climate” and sets out policies and
actions under the following three themes:

Climate Ready Natural Environment;

Climate Ready Buildings and Infrastructure Networks; and

Climate Ready Society.
The programme replaces Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework.
The CCC is due to provide their first assessment of the Scottish Government’s progress in
implementing the programme in September 2016.
CLIMATE CHANGE ‘MAINSTREAMING’ IN THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT
During scrutiny of the Scottish Government’s Draft budget 2012-13 and Spending
Review 2011, the Rural Affairs, Climate Change and Environment (RACCE)
Committee Scottish Parliament 2013) noted:
‘..the inherent difficulties of one committee attempting to scrutinise
actual spend on achieving the Scottish Government’s climate change targets as set
out in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (“the Act”) due to policies crossing all
subject committees’ remits and Cabinet Secretaries’ portfolios.’
Draft Scottish Budget
The RACCE committed recommended that all subject committees consider climate change
issues when they considered issues within their own Scottish Government portfolio and the
Scottish Parliament Finance Committee endorsed this recommendation. Since 2012 the
RACCE committee have encouraged all subject committee’s to consider climate change issues
as part of their approach to scrutinising the draft Scottish Budget each year. In particular the
RACCE committee identified the need for committees to consider how planned spend supports
delivery of the targets set out in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 and Low Carbon
Scotland: The Second Report on Proposals and Policies.
In their Session 4 Legacy Paper (Scottish Parliament 2016) the RACCE Committee have raised
some concerns about how successful this approach has been to date:
‘The failure of some relevant committees in the Parliament to meaningfully engage with
climate change issues in the budget process was one of the more disappointing aspects
of the session. The Committee does not regret initiating and championing the
mainstreaming and hopes that a successor committee continues with it. However, there
is clearly work to be done to get the message of the importance of the work across to
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other committees and members and to stimulate a step-change across the Parliament in
the next session.’
Report on Proposals and Policies (RPP2)
In 2013 four committees of the Parliament: RACCE; Economy, Energy and Tourism;
Infrastructure and Capital Investment; and Local Government and Regeneration, scrutinised the
Scottish Government’s Draft Second Report on Proposals and Policies (RPP2). Each
committee published its own report to Parliament before a joint-committee debate in the
chamber.
In their legacy paper (Scottish Parliament 2016) the RACCE Committee highlighted their
experience of engaging in cross-committee work on climate change:
‘The Committee’s experience of cross-committee working in the session (mainstreaming
of climate issues in the budget aside) was largely a positive one. The best examples of
this, seen in the scrutiny of both RPP2 and NPF3, saw four committees working
innovatively and constructively together to avoid repetitions and/or duplication of effort
and maximising the Parliament’s scrutiny of two very important documents (which would
agree the approaches to both tackling climate change and planning respectively).
Successor committees should look to collaborate with other committees on a case-bycase basis as there are likely to be times when doing so would be hugely beneficial to the
Parliament in terms of delivering beneficial and effective scrutiny.’
CLIMATE JUSTICE
In 2012 the Scottish Government launched a climate justice fund. According to the Government
(2014c) the fund:
‘aims to address the needs of climate vulnerable people, particularly recognising the
disproportionate effect the impact of climate change can have on the poor, and women
and children in developing countries.’
Initially £3 million was allocated to support five climate change adaptation projects in Malawi
and Zambia (Scottish Government 2012). In 2014 a further £3 million was provided to support
water and food related projects in Malawi, Zambia, Tanzania and Rwanda (Scottish
Government 2014d) In December 2015 the Scottish Government announced that the fund
would be doubled to £12 million (Scottish Government 2015).
20
CLIMATE CHANGE SCRUTINY DURING SESSION 4 OF THE SCOTTISH
PARLIAMENT
Table 1 summarises some of the key climate change issues that have been considered
by the Scottish Parliament during Session 4.
Issue
Climate Change and the draft
Scottish Budget 2013-14
Climate Change and the draft
Scottish Budget 2014-15
Climate Change and the draft
Scottish Budget 2015-16
Climate Change and the draft
Scottish Budget 2016-17
Climate Change and the draft
Scottish Budget 2015-16
Climate Change and the draft
Scottish Budget 2016-17
Climate change and the public
sector
COP 21 (Paris)and Scottish
Government climate policy
Climate Change Adaptation
Draft Second Report on
Proposals and Policies
(RPP2)
Behaviours Framework
Scotland’s Climate Change
Targets
Draft Second Report on
Proposals and Policies
(RPP2)
Draft Second Report on
Proposals and Policies
(RPP2)
Draft Second Report on
Proposals and Policies
(RPP2)
Climate change and NPF3
Date
December 2012
output
RACCE – Committee Report
December 2013
RACCE – Committee Report
January 2015
RACCE – Committee Report
January 2016
RACCE – Committee Report
January 2015
ICI – Committee Report
January 2016
ICI – Committee Report
May 2015
RACCE – letter to the Minister
December 2015
RACCE – letter to the Minister
December 2013
March 2013
RACCE – letter to the Minister
RACCE – Committee Report
December 2013
November 2014
RACCE – letter to the Minister
RACCE – letter to the Minister
March 2013
EET – Committee Report
March 2013
ICI – Committee Report
March 2013
Local
Government
and
Regeneration Committee –
Committee Report
RACCE – Committee Report
March 2014
21
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25
RELATED BRIEFINGS
SB 16-08 Paris 2015 Climate Summit: Outcomes and Implications for Scotland
SB 15-63 Paris 2015: UN Climate Negotiations
SB 14-66 Climate Change: The Latest United Nations Science
SB 14-78 Scotland’s Climate Emissions Targets and Trends: November 2014
SB 13-07 RPP2 and Scotland’s Climate Change Targets
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Published by the Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe), The Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh, EH 99 1SP
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