Maurice Carroll, Assistant Director,
Quinnipiac University Poll
(203) 506-9199
Rubenstein Associates, Inc.
Public Relations
Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026
FOR RELEASE: JULY 19, 2016
NEW YORK IS IN A CLINTON STATE OF MIND,
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
SCHUMER LEADS UNKNOWN GOP CHALLENGER MORE THAN 2-1
Driven by a 3 – 1 lead in New York City, Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald
Trump 47 – 35 percent among all New York State voters, according to a Quinnipiac University
poll released today.
Both candidates have negative favorability ratings, 41 – 52 percent for Clinton and
32 – 61 percent for Trump, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.
Clinton leads among all age groups, especially among voters 18 to 34 years old, who go
Democratic 53 – 18 percent. There is a yawning gender gap, with men tipping to Trump 44 – 40
percent, while women back Clinton 54 – 28 percent.
New York City voters back Clinton 63 – 20 percent, while upstate voters go to Trump
48 – 36 percent. Suburban voters are divided, with 40 percent for Trump and 39 percent for
Clinton.
Both candidates suffer from lower levels of same-party support than winning candidates
normally receive, as Clinton leads 82 – 10 percent among Democrats, while Trump takes
Republicans 76 – 9 percent. Independent voters back Clinton 41 – 35 percent.
With third party candidates in the race, Clinton gets 45 percent, with Trump at 33
percent, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson at 6 percent and Green Party candidate Jill
Stein at 4 percent.
“As Republicans rally in Cleveland and Democrats prepare for their Philadelphia
convention, Hillary Clinton seems to have her adopted home state votes safely locked up,” said
Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Maurice Carroll.
-more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/July 19, 2016 – page 2
“Donald Trump’s a native New Yorker. He even sounds like one, compared with
Clinton’s flat Midwestern accent, but he lags by double digits in the state where they’ll both
vote,” Carroll added.
“There’s a big gender gap. Women are solidly for the first woman nominee of a major
party. Even though she calls Chappaqua home, Clinton trails Trump among men.”
Donald Trump’s selection of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate was a good
choice, New York State voters say 43 – 21 percent, but 59 percent of voters don’t know enough
about Pence to form an opinion of him.
“Picking Pence had no noticeable effect on Trump’s New York numbers,” Carroll said.
U.S. Senate Race
In New York State’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Charles Schumer
leads Republican challenger Wendy Long 60 – 28 percent. Schumer is ahead among every
gender, age and regional group listed, and among Democrats and independent voters, while Long
has a lackluster 62 – 24 percent lead among Republicans.
New York State voters approve 62 – 29 percent of the job Schumer is doing and give him
a 57 – 25 percent favorability rating.
For Long, 74 percent haven’t heard enough to form an opinion of her.
Voters approve 56 – 22 percent of the job Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is doing.
President Obama Approval
New York State voters approve 56 – 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is
doing, his best score in more than three years. Approval is 70 – 25 percent in New York City
and 52 – 46 percent in the suburbs, while upstate voters disapprove 52 – 45 percent.
From July 13 – 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,104 New York State voters, with a
margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia,
Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.
Visit www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
2
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary
Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Clinton
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
47%
35
3
5
9
9%
76
3
5
7
82%
10
2
1
5
41%
35
5
7
12
40%
44
3
7
6
54%
28
4
4
11
53%
18
6
10
13
45%
40
4
5
7
49%
41
2
3
6
46%
41
3
2
8
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
Clinton
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
36%
48
3
4
9
63%
20
3
7
6
39%
40
4
4
13
2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary
Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill
Stein the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote?
Clinton
Trump
Johnson
Stein
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
45%
33
6
4
1
4
8
7%
74
2
3
1
4
9
79%
9
2
2
1
2
4
38%
32
9
6
4
10
34%
41
9
6
1
3
7
54%
27
3
2
1
4
9
45%
15
12
6
10
12
45%
35
8
4
2
1
5
46%
39
4
3
1
1
6
46%
41
1
4
2
6
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
Clinton
Trump
Johnson
Stein
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
35%
45
5
3
1
4
7
60%
17
5
6
1
3
7
35%
39
8
1
1
3
12
3
3. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of
enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic
than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
More
Less
About the same
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
40%
33
25
1
54%
28
18
-
41%
29
28
1
32%
41
23
3
49%
28
21
2
33%
38
28
1
28%
43
27
2
40%
30
29
2
51%
27
22
1
40%
35
24
2
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
More
Less
About the same
DK/NA
41%
35
23
1
39%
35
25
2
42%
29
28
2
4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or
somewhat?
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Strongly favorable
23%
Smwht favorable
9
Smwht unfavorable
7
Strongly unfavorable 54
Hvn't hrd enough
4
REFUSED/DK/NA
3
53%
17
5
19
4
3
7%
2
6
81
2
1
22%
9
8
53
5
3
29%
10
10
44
4
3
18%
8
5
62
4
3
9%
5
9
70
4
2
24%
12
5
52
6
2
27%
8
7
51
5
2
28%
12
6
51
1
3
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
Strongly favorable
33%
Smwht favorable
12
Smwht unfavorable
4
Strongly unfavorable 47
Hvn't hrd enough
2
REFUSED/DK/NA
3
11%
6
10
63
7
3
28%
9
7
51
2
3
4
5. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or
somewhat?
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Strongly favorable
25%
Smwht favorable
16
Smwht unfavorable
7
Strongly unfavorable 45
Hvn't hrd enough
4
REFUSED/DK/NA
3
6%
7
3
82
1
1
48%
23
5
16
5
3
16%
18
10
49
5
2
19%
17
7
54
2
2
30%
16
7
38
5
4
18%
23
13
38
7
-
25%
14
8
48
4
-
30%
14
5
46
3
2
29%
14
4
46
2
5
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
Strongly favorable
19%
Smwht favorable
13
Smwht unfavorable
6
Strongly unfavorable 59
Hvn't hrd enough
2
REFUSED/DK/NA
2
35%
18
8
30
6
3
18%
20
7
49
3
4
6. Is your opinion of Jill Stein favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about
her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
Tot
Strongly favorable
2%
Smwht favorable
7
Smwht unfavorable
2
Strongly unfavorable 4
Hvn't hrd enough
85
REFUSED/DK/NA
1
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
2
3
4
90
-
2%
9
2
3
83
1
2%
8
3
5
82
-
1%
8
4
4
82
1
2%
6
1
3
87
1
2%
20
5
2
71
-
1%
6
1
7
86
-
1%
5
2
4
86
1
3%
2
2
4
89
1
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
Strongly favorable
1%
Smwht favorable
5
Smwht unfavorable
2
Strongly unfavorable 4
Hvn't hrd enough
87
REFUSED/DK/NA
-
1%
8
3
4
82
1
3%
8
2
3
84
-
5
7. Is your opinion of Gary Johnson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or
somewhat?
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Strongly favorable
3%
Smwht favorable
7
Smwht unfavorable
5
Strongly unfavorable 5
Hvn't hrd enough
80
REFUSED/DK/NA
1
1%
7
5
7
80
-
2%
8
6
5
79
1
4%
6
3
5
82
-
4%
9
5
5
76
1
2%
4
4
5
84
1
7%
7
4
82
-
1%
9
4
5
81
-
2%
7
6
8
76
1
1%
5
4
7
81
1
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
Strongly favorable
2%
Smwht favorable
8
Smwht unfavorable
5
Strongly unfavorable 6
Hvn't hrd enough
79
REFUSED/DK/NA
1
2%
7
4
5
81
1
6%
4
5
4
80
1
8. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates
were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Wendy Long the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Schumer
Long
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
60%
28
1
3
8
24%
62
3
9
87%
9
1
3
58%
28
1
4
9
55%
36
1
2
6
65%
21
4
10
69%
15
5
11
56%
32
3
9
59%
32
1
2
6
61%
33
1
5
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
Schumer
Long
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
53%
38
1
7
71%
17
1
5
7
54%
31
3
12
6
9. Is your opinion of Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
57%
25
15
2
32%
51
15
2
77%
5
16
1
53%
31
14
2
52%
31
15
2
62%
21
16
2
61%
6
31
3
52%
31
16
1
60%
30
8
2
62%
27
9
2
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
54%
32
13
2
63%
19
18
1
53%
26
16
4
10. Is your opinion of Wendy Long favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about
her?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
17%
9
74
1
37%
3
60
1
6%
11
82
1
16%
9
74
-
21%
7
72
1
14%
10
76
-
8%
15
77
-
16%
6
78
-
23%
9
66
2
19%
7
74
1
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
25%
9
66
-
11%
9
78
1
14%
6
79
1
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United
States Senator?
Approve
Disapprove
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
62%
29
8
33%
56
11
82%
12
6
64%
31
5
58%
33
9
66%
26
8
72%
15
13
55%
36
9
61%
34
5
63%
31
6
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
Approve
Disapprove
DK/NA
56%
35
9
68%
24
8
62%
30
9
7
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as
United States Senator?
Approve
Disapprove
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
56%
22
22
39%
40
21
76%
8
16
51%
24
26
50%
25
25
61%
20
19
50%
18
32
60%
19
22
57%
25
17
62%
24
14
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
Approve
Disapprove
DK/NA
57%
26
17
56%
18
26
55%
22
23
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Approve
Disapprove
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
56%
40
4
14%
83
3
87%
11
3
58%
40
3
47%
49
5
64%
32
3
72%
25
4
51%
44
5
53%
44
3
52%
45
2
AREA.............
UpStat NYC
Sub
Approve
Disapprove
DK/NA
45%
52
3
70%
25
5
52%
46
2
27. Is your opinion of Mike Pence favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about
him? (Asked Jul 15-17)
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
18%
23
59
-
35%
2
61
1
5%
40
55
-
20%
19
61
-
22%
21
56
1
14%
25
61
-
28. Do you think Donald Trump's selection of Mike Pence as his vice presidential running
mate was a good choice or a bad choice? (Asked Jul 15-17)
Good
Bad
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
43%
21
36
60%
3
37
32%
34
35
45%
22
32
49%
18
33
38%
24
38
8