Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 1805 – 1822
Bridging the gap between foresight and market research:
Integrating methods to assess the economic
potential of nanotechnology ☆
Norbert Malanowski ⁎, Axel Zweck
Future Technologies Division of VDI Technology Center, P.O. 10 11 39, 40002 Duesseldorf, Germany
Received 10 October 2006; received in revised form 20 February 2007; accepted 1 May 2007
Abstract
This paper discusses how to bridge the gap between foresight research oriented to the long-term, and traditional
market research oriented to the medium to short term, when applied to an early stage of a technology's life cycle. It
proposes using an integrating approach, i.e. a combination of methods and both foresight and traditional market
research. A mix of complementary methods for the acquisition and analysis of data is presented in a case study.
This helps to overcome the deficits of some qualitative foresight methods and quantitative methods often used in
traditional market research and allows us to examine research results from the different methods applied both on
their own and as a group. In the absence of a single fully-fledged and accepted economic approach, this paper
argues that combined market research and foresight modules are the best possible approach for analyzing the
economic potential of emerging technologies like nanotechnology. In the future, similar applications of such
☆
The complete study “Growth Market Nanotechnology: An Analysis of Technology and Innovation” [1] was carried out on
behalf of and with support of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) [Support Code 16 I 1503]. The
Federal Ministry of Education and Research had no influence on the outcome of the study. The authors are responsible for the
content. The authors of this article would like to express their thanks to their co-authors of the complete study. These are Dr. Gerd
Bachmann, Dr. Andreas Hoffknecht, Dr. Dirk Holtmannspoetter, Dr. Wolfgang Luther and Dr. Volker Wagner (all of whom work
with the Future Technologies Division of the VDI Technology Center) and Prof. Dr. Thomas Heimer, Business School of Finance
and Management, and Dr. Matthias Werner, Nano & Micro Technology Consulting. Special thanks go also to Christine Ahner of
translate.economy who did the English translation of the complete German study, originally published in 2004, and its revised
chapters for the English book. Last but not least, we would like to thank Dr. Ramon Compañó and Dr. Philine Warnke, Institute
for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, and Dr. Sabine Korte, Future Technologies Division of VDI TZ, Duesseldorf, for
valuable comments on a first draft of this paper.
⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +49 211 6214 516; fax: +49 211 6214 139.
E-mail address: malanowski@vdi.de (N. Malanowski).
0040-1625/$ - see front matter © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2007.05.010
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market foresight modules may be useful, for example, as elements of foresight. They will also be useful in studies
of emerging technologies (e.g. converging technologies, cognitive science and Web 2.0) where traditional market
research does not produce a realistic market assessment.
© 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Traditional market research; Foresight; Nanotechnology; Integrating research methods; Emerging technologies
1. Introduction
Foresight is usually seen as a systematic collective process of reasoning about the future, which
suggests possible courses of action. Quite often it is a participatory process involving the stakeholders
concerned with a particular issue. It always envisages a number of alternative futures, and has a typical
time horizon of 10–20 years.1 The benefits of foresight are threefold. Firstly, the involvement of relevant
actors in the debate creates ownership and orients actors towards policy objectives (soft coordination).
Secondly, the joint learning process as results from the foresight activities leads to better connectivity in
the innovation arena through networking and improvement of knowledge flows [3]. This leads to better
innovation capability. Finally, anticipatory intelligence is created from a wide diversity of viewpoints and
knowledge sources, which serves as a base for future-oriented decision making. In particular, technology
foresight is “an instrument of strategic policy intelligence which seeks to generate an enhanced
understanding of possible scientific and technological developments and their impact on economy and
society” [4]. It does not focus on technology in a narrow sense but sees technological change as being
embedded in broader change in the economy and society. It therefore “provides a process for linking
science and technology more effectively to wealth creation and improvements in the quality of life” [5].
Foresight has long since moved away from the early predictive “forecasting approaches”, based on
trend extrapolation and expert consultations, towards a “third generation of foresight” [6]. This takes a
holistic view and applies a wide range of methods to structure stakeholder dialogue to create collective
intelligence. Technology forecasts, which provide information about technological trends are, however,
still an important input into the foresight processes. Traditional market research differs from foresight in
many respects. Not only is the time horizon much shorter (usually 5–10 years) but also the purpose is
different. While foresight orients decision making (for policy and also business) in a general way and only
in specific cases does it lead to concrete strategy building [7], traditional market research can be used for
concrete short to medium-term company business and strategy planning [8,9].
In this paper, we discuss a study on the economic potential of nanotechnology, which uses elements
from both foresight and traditional market research. The study was carried out by an interdisciplinary
team of economists, social scientists, engineers, physicists and chemists over a period of 2 years. It aimed
to assess realistically the market volume and relevance of nanotechnology, both in Germany itself and in
an international context. It also aimed to bridge the gap between foresight and traditional market research,
by doing empirical research on the economic potential of a specific emerging technology and using
methodological elements of the traditional market research module and the foresight module. We will use
the example to show how elements from both modules can be combined to create a better understanding
of the future development and diffusion of emerging technologies. This combination yields a somewhat
1
See FORLEARN online foresight guide [2].
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broader understanding than traditional market research, and also more quantifiable outcomes, which are
more suitable for the orientation of business investments than foresight research.
2. The subject: economic relevance of nanotechnology
Nanotechnology is one of the emerging and breakthrough technologies of the 21st century. Rather than
a clearly defined base technology in the classical sense, it is an interdisciplinary science domain with
potential applications in electronics, optics, and new materials. On the one hand, nanotechnology
engineering works with active and inactive elementary units, i.e. atoms and molecules, and is comparable
to a Lego kit (bottom-up). On the other hand, it is possible to create structures measuring as little as one
thousandth of the diameter of one hair by means of miniaturization (top-down).
An internationally standardized concept that defines nanotechnology does not yet exist. This article has
adopted the following definition, used by German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF)
in its official publications [10]:
“Nanotechnology describes the creation, examination and application of structures, molecular
materials, inner interfaces and surfaces with at least one critical dimension or with manufacturing
tolerances (typically) below 100 nanometres. The decisive factor is that new functionalities and
features for the improvement of existing products or the development of new products and application
options result from the nanoscalability of the system components alone. These new effects and
possibilities are predominantly based on the ratio of surface to volume atoms and on the quantummechanical behaviour of the matter elements”.
Nanotechnology is a good case study for foresight and other future-oriented approaches2 and market
research. There are several different possible long-term patterns of societal change associated with the
embedding of nanotechnology into society that need to be considered in stakeholder debate.3 At the same
time, it is important for companies already active in the field and for policy makers aiming to secure
competitiveness to identify potential future applications in this innovation area. The speed of innovation
in nanotechnology has meant that the first product groups are entering world markets even before their
physical fundamentals are fully understood. In many ways, it is only by manipulating matter that scientists
start to grasp its self-organising principles. The industrial breakthrough will come when nanoscale
architecture is implemented in macroscopic devices for new functions. Foresight and other future-oriented
studies and traditional market research studies published so far are still too fragmentary to portray
precisely the economic importance of nanotechnology for all lines of industry concerned, particularly as
the definition remains vague [13–16]. The basic assumption of this article is that the economic potential
of nanotechnology can hardly be assessed realistically by purely quantitative or qualitative methods of
empirical research, due to the complexity and vagueness of the definitions of nanotechnology which is
still an emerging technology in the early stages of development. Moreover, any assessment of this
technology without understanding societal expectations would be unrealistic. Therefore, we argue there is
a need for an integrative approach to bridge the gap between foresight and traditional market research
when performing empirical research on the economic potential of emerging technologies and their impact.
2
3
The most applied future-oriented approaches are: foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment [11].
See for instance the scenarios in the European Nanologue project which started in 2005 [12].
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3. Methodology employed
According to Alemann [17], qualitative (e.g. expert interviews, literature reviews, expert workshops)
and quantitative methods (e.g. standardized surveys, patent analysis) are nowadays to be regarded as
complementary rather than competing methods for gaining insights after years of debate. Open procedures for qualitative methods, are preferred as they impose fewer restrictions on people when asked to
formulate their subjective reality constructions. In quantitative methods, standardized measuring instruments are usually applied to quantify the measured variables and analyze them, with the help of statistical
methods. Meanwhile, there is a growing conviction that: “there is no ideal method solution for empirical
research. Instead, a combination of (traditional market research and foresight) methods has to be applied,
especially qualitative and quantitative methods that take into account the subject area, the problem
concerned and the available financial and time resources” [18]. Integrating research methods has proven
to be useful in one other case: the evaluation of the potential of microsystems engineering [19]. The
assessment of the economic potential of other emerging technologies like, for instance, biotechnology or
new energy technology, is only similar to some extent, although combined methods are also used. These
assessments may have too strong a focus on quantitative methods and be a little too narrow in scope,
leaving societal expectations to one side [20]. Alternatively, they may focus too much on qualitative
methods and lack economic data [21].
4. Work phases
The first phase of the study was dedicated to collecting background information. The existing body of
foresight and market studies on the subject was analyzed (literature review) and a preliminary patent
analysis carried out, using a broad definition of nanotechnology. Furthermore, we conducted 15 exploratory expert interviews (work phase 1). The information derived was used to define a standardized
questionnaire for a business survey. Before its application, the questionnaire underwent a pre-test. The
outcomes were analyzed with the help of the statistical programme SPSS. Furthermore, through in-depth
examination of information about inventors and patent applicants available in the relevant databases (e.g.
WPINDEX, EUROPATFUL, USPATFUL), knowledge about the role of German enterprises and
scientists in this field was gained (work phase 2).
The research results from the literature review, patent analysis and business survey (from work phases
1 and 2) can be described as results of the traditional market research module. These were formulated as
theses and used as the basis for constructive discussion in 4 branch-specific expert workshops (Delphi
method).4 This can be described as the first element of the foresight module. The workshop participants
were from banks, science, nanotechnology competence centres, producers, suppliers, system developers
and venture capital enterprises. These experts gave a critique of the outcomes from the literature review,
patent analysis and business survey. They also contributed their expert knowledge about the economic
potential of nanotechnology from their respective points of view. In order to estimate the importance of
nanotechnology for the major German markets (lead markets), special attention was paid to those
businesses that have a major influence on the technological competitiveness of German industry
4
In the Delphi method, experts of the respective field to be examined are polled, as a rule in one or more runs. They are
mostly presented with an explicitly structured catalogue containing questions and theses, on the basis of which they are to make
their assessments of future developments and trends [22].
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(chemistry, car manufacture, optics, life sciences and electronics). The experts were also asked to
comment on some important statements concerning societal acceptance and non-acceptance of nanotechnology. For instance, one statement concerned the impact of uncontrolled release of nanoparticles and
the demand by some social interest groups for a moratorium on development, in order to raise awareness
among scientists and industrialists of possible societal expectations (hopes and fears). The data gained
was processed again by the project team and put before the respective branch-specific expert networks for
validation before its final documentation (work phase 3).
Based on the compiled information and with the help of another structured method (SWOT analysis),
which can be described as the second element of the foresight module, an analysis of the status of
nanotechnology in Germany (Strengths and Weaknesses) and the existing Opportunities and Threats was
carried out by the experts who attended the 4 workshops (work phase 4). The whole process of the
comprehensive mix of methods (traditional market research module and the foresight module) to assess
the economic potential of nanotechnology presented in this paper is visualized in Fig. 1.
The methods used for the collection of information on current trends and developments (literature
review, patent analysis, expert interviews and business survey) are routinely used in traditional market
research. They are also a vital element in foresight (under the heading of environmental scanning) for the
collection of information to be fed into the collective learning process, usually in the first stage (diagnosis
phase). However, in this study the expert workshops served as means for synthesizing the information that
was generated jointly with a group of stakeholders using a typical foresight method – the Delphi method –
to structure the process. Doing it this way and making use of the participants' rich diversity of
perspectives, it was possible to generate an integrated understanding about the economic impact of
nanotechnology. Furthermore the process benefits – associated with foresight but not with traditional
market research – such as networking and building consensus on the issues at stake, were clearly
achieved, although – due to the limited number of participants and events – no fully-fledged foresight was
carried out. The SWOT analysis, also an essential component of foresight methodology, led to the generation of further collective intelligence. The key methodological element which served to integrate
quantitative (patent analysis, business survey) and qualitative analysis (stakeholder dialogue) was
the transformation of the background information into Delphi statements thus linking the market
research module with the foresight module. In doing it this way the data became accessible for futureoriented collective reasoning. In the following paragraphs the individual steps of the analysis will be
discussed.
Fig. 1. Integrating market research and foresight modules to assess the economic potential of nanotechnology.
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5. Foresight and market research on nanotechnology
5.1. Research method: literature review
The analysis of nanotechnology applications and their market prospects in products and product groups
was based on a secondary analysis of foresight and other future-oriented studies and market research
publications. The following sources were used:
• Market and foresight analyses and press releases of different market and foresight research institutes,
partly with specialization in the field of nanotechnology, e.g. Business Communication Company (BCC),
CMP Científica, Buero fuer Technikfolgenabschaetzung (TAB), Fraunhofer Gesellschaft (FhG);
• Press releases and publications of enterprises;
• Publications in special journals, the daily press and on the Internet.
Apart from a qualitative description of the application potential, quantitative statements concerning the
market potential of nanotechnology were also made, albeit with the proviso that quantitative evaluation of
market potential is complicated by the fact that the nanotechnology field has the following characteristics:
• Nanotechnology cannot be assigned to classical industry classification as it is a cross-sectional
discipline, which is used in different sectors of industry.
• It does not represent a uniform technological platform, but comprises a wide spectrum of various fields
of technology and research (e.g. materials technology, coating technology, nanostructuring, analytics
and surface treatment).
• Nanotechnological processes and products predominantly start at the beginning of the value-added
chain and mainly refer to individual components only, the functionality of which is enhanced by
nanotechnology. The share of nanotechnology in the value added of marketable products is hardly
quantifiable or can be recorded only vaguely.
• For the most part, nanotechnology is still in the research stage. Evaluations of the market success of
future product options and visions are therefore more or less speculative.
5.2. Research findings
Fig. 2 shows the span of published market figures regarding nanotechnology which range from 900
million USD for the world market volume of nanostructured materials in 2005 [23] to one trillion USD for
the world market volume of nanotechnologically-influenced products in 2015 [24].
In order to evaluate market figures more accurately and to avoid misinterpretations, it was necessary to
first discuss the following questions:
• Which definition of nanotechnology was used?
• Which databases are the figures quoted based on?
• Which (sub)areas of nanotechnology does the market evaluation include (e.g. nanomaterials, nanocoatings, tools and measurement technology for the generation of nanostructures etc.)?
• To which value-added stage do the market figures refer (elements such as nanopowder, intermediate
products like laser diodes, or end user products like computers or domestic appliances)?
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Fig. 2. Outline of market figures and forecasts for nanotechnology [25–27,30,31].
The market forecasts of the Business Communication Company (BCC) [23] and the American
National Science Foundation (NSF) [24], mentioned above, represent two extremes. While BCC forecasts
are confined to a limited section of nanotechnology (inorganic nanoparticles) calculating the market value
of the elements, NSF forecasts refer to the market value of all end products that are somehow influenced
by nanotechnology (e.g. medicine, computer, data storage etc.). NSF forecasts neither mention specific
products nor specify the share of nanotechnology in the added value. Another factor of uncertainty is the
time horizon. Therefore, it is not surprising that market volumes predicted may differ by a factor of 1000.
Between these two extremes, there are other market forecasts that segment nanotechnology into
different sub-areas (nanomaterials, nanoanalytics, etc.) and determine the market potential of nanotechnology by adding up the market value of specific products that contain nanotechnological components
[28,29]. For products that have not yet reached market maturity, the substitution potential for existing
products is usually given (e.g. MRAM-memory chips as substitutes for DRAM-memory chips). In cases
where the value-added share of a nanotechnological component in the end product is not quantifiable, or
market data is not available, the value of the smallest sellable unit of a product that contains the
nanotechnological function is stated. For example, in the case of hard disk data storage, this would be the
whole disk drive, although only the GMR reading head contains a nanotechnological function.
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Market figures may also be distorted by double counting of nanoproducts. For example, it may be
that products from different value-added stages are repeatedly brought into the evaluation, even
though they are based on the same nanotechnological basic product. Therefore, it is possible that, for
example, to determine the total market volume, a nanocrystalline material in a product (e.g. sun
cream) is brought in both at the value-added stage of the raw material (nanocrystalline material)
and at the end-product stage (sun cream). This double counting leads to an overestimation of the
market size.
6. Nanotechnology and patents
6.1. Research method: patent analysis
It is accepted that patents can be very valuable and play a central role in company competitiveness.5
Less importance is given to the fact that many patents are of hardly any value. Ironically, these patents
only run up costs. Scientific literature describes a lot of methods for the evaluation of patents in different
situations [33,34]. Patent evaluation is necessary to support management decisions during R&D projects
and for their commercialization, as it poses questions such as:
• Should an invention be patented?
• Should a patent application, once initiated, be followed up? If yes, in which countries?
• Should a patent, once granted, be maintained? If yes, in which countries?
However, patent evaluations are also important within the framework of license negotiations, for the
sale of patents, in negotiations regarding venture capital for start-up companies, the sale and merger of
companies, and for the balancing of accounts and reporting. In the end, the value of patents is determined
according to the future market value of the products concerned. Accordingly, the patent evaluation itself
is based on some kind of market forecast and therefore subject to all the uncertainties inherent in such a
forecast. Since even the relation to the respective products is not always clear, the uncertainties arising
from forecast patent evaluations are particularly pronounced. So patent evaluations are dependent on the
point in time they are drawn up and are subject to changes over time, if, during this time, the basis for
evaluation has also changed.
As has been proved, several bibliometric patent indicators correlate with the value of patents [34]. They
have the advantage of being reliably collectable from patent databases at manageable costs. However, the
use of patent indicators implies that relevant patent information has already been published; hence it
requires certain forward planning. In practice, the number of quotations in search reports and third-party
patents are used, as well as the number of objections, the number of references in non-patent literature,
the existence of appeals and nullity suits, data about the scope of patent families and the status of patent
grants.
Just as there is no generally accepted definition of nanotechnology, neither is there an accepted enquiry
strategy for nanotechnology patents. Even the studies mentioned above differ considerably in terms of
search words used. A distribution on the basis of special classes in the international patent classification
5
As a current example, the decision of the Tokyo district court has to be mentioned, which obliges the company Nichia to
pay 180 million US dollars to Prof. Nakamura, the inventor of the blue light-emitting diode [32].
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(IPC) is not possible either. The multitude of enquiry strategies in literature can be roughly subdivided
into the following three groups:
1. The most simple strategy is searching for the prefix “nano”, with certain combinations of this prefix
being excluded explicitly when there is obviously no connection to nanotechnology. The most frequent
of these combinations to be excluded are: nanosec? or nano2 or nano3 or nanogram? or nanolite? or
nanolitr? or nanomol? or nanos or nanosat? or nanosec? or subnanomol? or subnanosec?
2. A detailed search strategy comprises the compilation of comprehensive search word lists. Examples
are to be found in Braun et al. [35] and Compano/Hullmann [36]. In principle, explicit search word lists
consist of two elements. First, there are search words representing nanotechnology in its entirety, if
possible (example: “nanoparticle”). Second, there are search words that are typical for individual
partial technologies that are regarded as belonging to nanotechnology. The difficulty of such rather
specific search words is the compilation of a complete list. Depending on the partial technologies
considered or ignored in the search, distortions and imbalances may arise, especially if the companies
that apply them are found to be companies with a very specific product and technological profile. On
the other hand, with the number of additionally considered partial technologies, there is a growing risk
of including search words that do not only describe nanotechnology.
3. The most thorough strategy is to carry out a wide-ranging enquiry of a comprehensive sample of
applicants for nanotechnology patents, and to decide whether they belong to nanotechnology after an
examination of all the patent specifications investigated.
For the patent analysis, 6 the WPINDEX database was chosen. This has two advantages:
1. WPINDEX is suitable for statistics, as each individual element of the database portrays a complete
patent family. This is not the case in other databases, in which multiple registrations of the same patent
application are possible (e.g. when publications of unexamined applications and patent specifications
for the same application, as well as equivalent specifications of the same family, are registered as
separate documents in a database).
2. The database provider draws up its own short summary for each patent family. This moderates the
consequences of the common practice for patents to deliberately avoid essential keywords (here e.g.
the prefix “nano”) in the patent wording.
6.2. Research findings
Evaluation of patent applications over several years confirms that they reflect nanotechnology's
extremely dynamic progress. During the last 5 years, the number of patent applications in nanotechnology
doubled almost every 2 years. As a country, Germany is in a very good position regarding nanotechnology
patents — both in nanotechnology as a whole and in the numerically most important sub-field of
chemistry. Germany is keeping up with both the USA and Japan in all of its lead markets (chemistry, car
manufacture, optics, life sciences and electronics).
6
Due to the large number of patent documents and the limited resources available, a search based on a detailed word list
was selected for the purposes of this study, for example: nanoactuator?, nanoaggregate?, nanoamorphous?, nanoanaly?,
nanoarchitectur?, nanoarray?, (w) organ (w) vapo? (w) phase (w) epitax? or movpe.
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In the branch-specific expert workshops (Delphi method), discussion centred around patent
strategies in the field of nanotechnology. Industry experts pointed to the fact that, basically, nanotechnology does not require a totally different patent strategy than other fields of emerging technology.
However, a special feature is that development times from a new nanotechnological basic effect to its
application may be so long that, in certain cases, the patent protection expires shortly after product
maturity has been reached. This is in sharp contrast to some other technologies like Information and
Communication Technology, where time to market is much shorter. In the workshops, industry experts
pointed out that the tendency to patent in small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is significantly
lower than in large-scale enterprises. SMEs prefer not to disclose any technological trade secrets they
may have, — even if they are patentable. If in doubt, SMEs would rather register utility patents which
are cheaper.
The analysis of bibliometric patent indicators cannot provide an assessment of the market potential in
absolute figures. However, it becomes clear that considerable efforts to secure intellectual property in the
field of nanotechnology are being made worldwide — a fact that suggests that patent applicants see a
significant market potential in this field.
7. German companies and nanotechnology
7.1. Research method: business survey
Nanotechnology is considered to be one of the breakthrough technologies of the future. However,
the full scale of the possibilities of nanotechnology is not yet visible. Indeed, up to now, only the first
steps towards innovations through nanotechnology have been taken. Against this backdrop, the paperbased business survey aimed to clearly identify the economic potential of nanotechnology in Germany,
and carry out a (first) evaluation. The central questions of the quantitative company survey were, inter
alia:
• Where is nanotechnology already used today?
• What growth potential do economic players expect nanotechnology will have in the years to come?
• And finally, what relations already exist between economic players in nanotechnology today?
In order to measure these aspects, the whole business survey was based on a uniform definition of
nanotechnology (see Section 2). The questions for the questionnaire were formulated to elicit information
on three development stages of nanotechnology companies:
• Their behaviour in the past,
• their current procedures,
• and their strategic orientation.
Moreover, the wording of the questions ensured that the focus of a company's activities in R&D, its
product range, the supply of nanotechnological components, and the networking involved in this supply,
were scanned.
The Future Technologies Divison (FTD) of the VDI Technology Center supplied approximately
450 addresses of selected companies in Germany that could clearly be assigned to nanotechnology.
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Public scientific institutes were not included. The Deutsche Bank contributed an additional 291
addresses, mostly of companies active in Microsystems Technology (MST), which comprises a set of
technologies at the interface with nanotechnology. Therefore, it can be assumed that, of approximately 800 addresses, some 450 to 700 addresses are of companies that are active in the field of
nanotechnology.
Depending on the figure the parent material is based on, and on the evaluation of the returns, different
return rates result.7 The margin ranges from 13.1 for 105 completed and processed questionnaires in
relation to approximately 800 questionnaires sent out, to 15.0 (700 company addresses) and 27.1 for 122
(107 plus 15 “no activity in the field of nano”), in relation to the approximately 450 company addresses of
the VDI TZ FTD parent material. Since nanotechnology is still in the early phases of commercial
exploitation (i.e. its prospects are developing only gradually), from a research point of view this resultsoriented selection of the parent population was clearly superior to a purely random sample of companies.
The return rate was sufficient for achieving secure and representative statements with the help of
quantitative processing because the companies that answered represented a miniature copy of the given
population [37] of small, medium and large companies active in nanotechnology in Germany. For this
reason, a non-response analysis was not mandatory.
7.2. Research findings
The analysis of the business areas of the companies polled showed that companies dealing with
nanotechnology were mainly active in the chemical industry and the manufacturing of measuring, control
and navigation instruments. This coincided with the results of other surveys. According to the results of
the business survey, the period in which the highest number of companies went into the “nanotechnology
business” was from 1996 to 2000. In this period, the observation of the nanotechnological scene,
companies' own R&D work, and nanotechnology use in products experienced the sharpest increases.
Public discussion of market relevance (1996) for instance, and the establishment of competence centres
(1998) for the field of nanotechnology, initiated by the BMBF with public funding, also fall into this
period.
The number of companies making their first sales with products containing nanotechnological
components and companies achieving their total sales with products with nanotechnological shares
increased significantly. It has to be emphasized that 66% of the companies described themselves as
manufacturers and about 29% as purely users of nanotechnological products. Consequently, the group of
companies that only use nanotechnological primary products has played a less important part so far
compared to the group that actively manufactures these components. This pattern is typical of a
technology diffusion process. Thus, it was a good sign for ongoing diffusion that the number of users
acting purely as market observers without achieving sales with nanotechnological primary products
decreased from 71% in 1996 to 25% in 2001.
While the analysis of the supply of primary products suggests that Germany has reached a good
position in the field of research, companies in the USA seem to be faster in transforming research results
into products (e.g. in the field of ICT). It is also interesting to note that, currently, hardly any German
7
In 2003, many nanotech companies were a little tired of answering questionnaires on the economic potential of
nanotechnology as a number of commercial organisations had already carried out ‘quick and dirty’ surveys on the subject.
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Fig. 3. Assessments of the annual world market volume of nanotechnological products in the respective lead markets [39–47].
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Fig. 3 (continued ).
companies see Japan and the rest of Asia as competitors in the diffusion of nanotechnology. This result is
partly confirmed by the analysis of the evaluation of the strength of potential competitors and R&D and its
realization on the market. As regards R&D, it appears that Asia and Europe lag behind the USA and
Germany. However, as regards the transformation of nanotechnology into products, the interviewees said
that the USA and Japan have performed better than Germany.
The majority of the companies assessed the prospects of nanotechnology as positive. About 90% of the
companies polled intended to enhance their activities in nanotechnology, 30% of them even considerably.
This was also accompanied by an increase in employment. Only 18% of the companies interviewed did
not see growing manpower requirements for their nanotechnological activities. German nanotechnology
companies have been concentrating predominantly on research, a fact that can be deduced from the
priority given to the provision of research personnel, contacts with cooperation partners and real
investment activities. Thirty-four companies of the sample were large-scale enterprises and 72 companies
were SMEs. A significant difference could be seen in the funding sources. The SMEs believed that they
had significantly poorer access to the capital market than large-scale enterprises and that their access to
market information was more complicated.
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8. Collective debate on desk research and business survey findings
8.1. Research method: branch-specific expert workshops
All results of the literature review, patent analysis and the business survey (traditional market research
module) were presented at 4 expert workshops in the form of theses to prompt constructive dialogue. The
Delphi method – very popular in foresight – was the key methodological element and was used
integrating the traditional market research module (literature review, patent analysis, the exploratory
expert interviews and the business survey) and the foresight module (stakeholder dialogue in workshops,
SWOT analysis). Background information was transformed into Delphi statements, making them
accessible for future-oriented collective reasoning. In the 4 workshops, 15 to 25 experts took part. They
came from banks, science, competence centres for nanotechnology, producers, suppliers, system
developers and venture capital companies, and dealt with one or another chosen branches. In theory, the
choice of experts could have been a problem, due to the use of the Delphi method. These experts could
have tried to position their special subject areas in a particular way [38]. However, steps were taken to
avoid this problem, by involving a large number of experts from the different fields of operation and
ensuring an adequate balance between these fields.
The first step was to question experts from the chosen lead markets about the topics “nanotechnological
product/market potentials along the value-added chain”, “innovation/implementation obstacles” and
“patents”. The experts were asked to analyze the results and theses and say how realistic they thought they
were. In a second step, they were presented with some of the more topical societal expectations on
nanotechnology — for instance, the impact of uncontrolled release of nanoparticles and the demand by
some social interest groups for a moratorium on development in order to raise awareness among scientists
and industrialists of possible societal expectations (hopes and fears).
8.2. Research findings
The market potential of nanotechnological applications in the major German markets are summarized
in Fig. 3. It is not possible to deduce the nanotechnological world market from this because:
• market information is only available for some nanotechnological products and lists are therefore
incomplete;
• market forecasts can refer to different time horizons;
• double references to nanotechnological products in two or more sections occur (e.g. application of
nano-basic-products/components in products of other fields);
• the survey includes products from different stages of the value-added chain (basic products,
intermediate products, end products etc.).
Concerning the societal expectations on nanotechnology, it was recommended by industrialists and
scientists participating in the workshops that more research should be done on the reaction of the
organism to nanoparticles — for example, if they are ingested by breathing or through the skin. The
experts believed that lack of information, awkward communication and insufficient knowledge of
the facts could lead to poor acceptance of emerging technologies, not least nanotechnology, and become
a considerable innovation obstacle. In order to avoid such innovation obstacles and mistakes,
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nanotechnology-related research activities in the fields of toxicology, environmental studies and ethics
like in the USA (NSF), United Kingdom (Royal Society) and Germany (as BMBF and TAB) were
suggested.
9. SWOT analysis
9.1. Research method: Strengths and Weaknesses and Opportunities and Threats analysis
By the year 2015, it is expected that almost all fields of industry will be affected by nanotechnology. The fields that will be most influenced by nanotechnology are chemistry, life sciences and
electronics. Based on the information gathered by means of another structured method (SWOT
analysis) which can be seen as the second element of the foresight module, a further analysis of the
status of nanotechnology in Germany and the existing chances and deficits was carried out. This
SWOT analysis, done by the participants of the 4 Delphi workshops comprises a Strength–Weaknessanalysis, i.e. the evaluations of the factors are influenced by stakeholders in Germany, and an
Opportunities–Threats-analysis, i.e. an assessment of the global factors. It comprises an analysis of
strengths und weaknesses of factors that may influence Germany, and an analysis of global opportunities and threats.
Fig. 4. SWOT analysis of nanotechnology in Germany.
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9.2. Research findings
The SWOT analysis set out in Fig. 4 gives examples of dominant Strengths and Weaknesses of
nanotechnology in Germany. The SWOT analysis confirms the most striking statements of the paperbased business survey and their assessment by the experts participating in the 4 branch-specific workshops. Financing of nanotechnology companies was categorized as a “Threat”. Because of the reluctance
of venture capitalists to invest in start-up companies, it was seen as a major problem. However, the
summary revealed that, overall, Germany has an excellent starting position for the economic realization of
activities in nanotechnology. The excellence of research, however, is not reflected completely in
commercialization. Here, the USA and Japan are a long way ahead of Germany. It must also be taken into
account that investments and public funding in the field of nanotechnology have increased considerably
worldwide, a fact partly attributable to the very high market volumes forecasted. In the future, stronger
international competition in nanotechnology can be expected, and players from outside the USA, Japan
and Germany will become more prominent.
10. Concluding remarks
One major goal of study we discussed in this article was to assess realistically the market volume and
relevance of nanotechnology. Another main goal of this study was to bridge the gap between foresight and
traditional market research, while doing empirical research on the economic potential of a specific
emerging technology and applying methods popular in traditional market research and foresight. With
regard to the acquisition and analysis of data in the field of nanotechnology, integrating the traditional
market research module and the foresight module proved valuable, providing qualitative (exploratory
expert interviews, literature review, branch-specific expert workshops, SWOT analysis) and quantitative
(paper-based business survey and patent analysis) methods for the determination of economic potential.
The 4 branch-specific Delphi workshops were particularly useful as they allowed (provisional) results to
be critically examined and evaluated by acknowledged experts from industry, science and finance in a
broader societal context. In this way, elements of participative foresight and technology assessment
processes were also brought into the study, as the basis for constructive discussion with the relevant
stakeholders.
It has to be stressed that it was not a full foresight exercise since societal stakeholders like consumers or
environmentalists were not involved and no work was done on alternative futures. Nevertheless, the
chosen approach adopted a component of collective anticipatory intelligence through stakeholder
dialogue. The key methodological innovation for this was to translate desk research and business survey
findings into Delphi statements and to use Delphi methods to structure the dialogue (not as prediction).
This was successful as the results are now much more coherent, and also other aspects like societal
expectations were addressed. It would otherwise have been difficult to find out that it does not make sense
to deduce the “nanotechnological world market” from the results, or that industry is well aware of
nanotechnology's environmental and ethical issues and is very interested in broader stakeholder dialogues
and further research on these issues. Compared to long-term foresight much more concrete information on
economic potential was generated. In the future, similar applications of such market foresight modules
may be useful as elements of foresight and also in cases of emerging technologies, like converging
technologies, cognitive science and Web 2.0, where pure market research does not produce a realistic
market assessment [7,48,49]. However, the solution proposed in the article demands as managerial
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implications interdisciplinary team work consisting of economists and natural and social scientists, solid
financial resources for the project, and the dedication of more time (18–24 months) than traditional
market research, if the gap between foresight and traditional market research is to be bridged.
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Dr. Norbert Malanowski Diploma in Social Sciences and Ph.D. in Political Economy, is a senior scientist at the Future Technologies Division of
VDI Technology Center, Duesseldorf, and a lecturer for policy analysis at the Open University of Hagen. From September 2005 to August 2007,
he was on leave to work as a senior visiting scholar with the European Commission, DG Joint Research Center, Institute for Prospective
Technological Studies, Seville.
Dr. Axel Zweck Diplomas in Chemistry and in Social Sciences, Ph.D. in Biochemistry and Ph.D. in Social Sciences, is head of the Future
Technologies Division of VDI Technology Center, Duesseldorf, and a lecturer for innovation and technology policy at the University of
Duesseldorf.