Communicating Forecasts
Charles Ewen – Met Office Chief Information Officer
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Agenda
• What users want
• Taking a knowledge management approach
• How forecasts are being communicated
• Accuracy to impacts
• Conclusions
• Q&A
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How important or unimportant are each
of these elements of a weather
forecast?
Source GfK UKMO PWS Annual Weather Survey Report (4 – 18th December 2012)
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Q3. How often do you usually see or hear a
weather forecast?
Source GfK UKMO PWS Annual Weather Survey Report (4 – 18th December 2012)
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Q11. What actions, if any, have you taken as a result of
a weather forecast in the last 12 months? For example
please think about whether you changed any plans to
travel or how you travelled etc as well as anything you
did around your property.
Source GfK UKMO PWS Annual Weather Survey Report (4 – 18th December 2012)
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DIKW
(Information as a resource ~1980)
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NWP – Creating Data
•
•
•
•
Science
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Insights
Understanding
Predictions
NWP base products
Non-expert consumers,
enabling decision making
•
•
•
•
Post Processing
Visualisations
Understanding
Behaviour
Consumers
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Repeat this 3 times defining
the role each time
Science
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Consumers
The consumer model
Visualisations &
Forecaster Apps
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The consumer model
NMS Data Driven
Apps
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The consumer model
3rd Party Data
Driven Apps
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The consumer model
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Cross Domain
Simulation,
Modelling,
Prediction
From accuracy to impacts
Improving message, medium, format
Brand & platforms
Digital marketing
Supporting content
Improving
usability,
context,
usefulness
impacts
Improving
accuracy
Improving
knowledge
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Layered content
Visualisations
How can we make weather
forecasts more ‘actionable’?
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So What?
• Reach, (direct and indirect)
• End use medium and format aware
• Understand and engage with ‘Digital’
• Create Knowledge (in non-experts)
• More effective visualisations (direct or examples)
• Re-usable data & content
• Geospatial re-use
• Tackle probability and confidence for non-experts
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Questions & answers
Thanks for your attention
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