The Impact of Climate
Change on Energy
World Bank Energy Week 2009
Rob Harrison, Principal Consultant
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The national weather service of the UK
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• Setting the Scene: Climate Change
• Impacts on Energy
• Possible Routes for Adaptation
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Most of the observed
increase in globally
averaged temperatures
since the mid-20th century
is very likely due to the
observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse
gas concentrations
IPCC 2007
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Current emissions
Michael Raupach et al., June 2007
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• Setting the Scene: Climate Change
• Impacts on Energy
• Possible Routes for Adaptation
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Climate Change Adaptation
Climate models
and INFORMATION
– the science underlying
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Science-industry
LINKAGES
Risk based
PLANNING
– translating to industry
relevance
– putting results into
context
Working with UK Energy
Industry
Exploring risks –
Reducing exposure
Increasing resilience
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EP2 example - Impact on
electricity network
• No evidence to support adjusting network
design standards
• Modelled future soil conditions – higher
temperatures and seasonal differences in soil
moisture expected
• Assessment of cost and benefits of installing
cables for a more resilient future network now
possible
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Urban climate change
• Important for assets located in urban areas
• E.g. electricity transformers often in
buildings in urban locations
•Demand driven by weather in urban areas
London up to 10oC warmer than rural area
•Increased storage of heat
•Reduced evaporation
•Anthropogenic heat release up to
1500Wm-2 (incident solar 342Wm-2, forcing
of 4Wm-2 for doubled CO2)
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Night-time thermal image: 7-9-1991
Courtesy of the ATSR project.
Renewables
How will climate change affect renewable sources
of power such as the wind, sun, rainfall and the
sea.
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Water availability for hydro
•
DJF Precipitation, A1B Scenario. Source: IPCC
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• Setting the Scene: Climate Change
• Impacts on Energy
• Practical Routes for Adaptation
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• Planning for highest
change could waste
money
• Planning for lowest
predictions could
jeopardize infrastructure
adequacy, with greater
costs
• Single deterministic
predictions are no longer
justifiable for adaptation.
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Hydro-electric forecasting in
Ghana
Provide seasonal forecasts for the inflow into Lake Volta
Form integral part of Volta River Authority planning for
generation capacity
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Climate predictions for next
10 years
• 2014 predicted to be 0.3ºC warmer than 2004
• Half of years from 2009-2014 predicted to be
hotter than 1998
• Argo floats
• Goal of 3000 achieved
• Measure temperature, salinity
and pressure – Surface to
2,000 metres
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Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C
New climatologies of the next
10 years
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2060s
observations
HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)
2040s
2003
~31yr window
‘nowcasting’ climate
Summary
• Climate is changing
• Many impacts on the Energy sector
• Recent scientific developments – it is now
possible to plan for changes
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