Willkommen zum
ITB Academy Webinar
„Neue Gäste aus China“
ITB Academy Webinar:
Neue Gäste aus China
Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Georg Arlt
COTRI
China Outbound Tourism Research Institute
www.china-outbound.com
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China hat Deutschland als "Reiseweltmeister" abgelöst,
2015 werden mehr als 130 Millionen Reisen aus FestlandsChina hinaus führen.
Viele dieser Reisende haben inzwischen die Fixierung auf
Sightseeing, Hauptstädte und das Einkaufen bekannter
Marken hinter sich gelassen und suchen stattdessen nach
Erlebnissen, unbekannten Destinationen und Produkten,
die zu ihrem Lifestyle und Selbstbild passen.
Mit der notwendigen Anpassung ihrer Produkte an
chinesische Erwartungen und Wünsche können auch
kleinere Destinationen und touristische Dienstleiter von
der wachsenden Zahl der "Second Wave" im ChinaTourismus profitieren.
www.china-outbound.com
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COTRI China Outbound Tourism Research Institute
The world's leading independent research institute for
information, training, quality assessment, research and
consulting relating to the Chinese outbound tourism market
Established:
2004
Offices:
Heide, Hamburg (Germany), Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou (China)
COTRI Country Partner in: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bosnia & Herzegovina,
Bhutan, Cambodia, Chile, Croatia, England, Estonia, Finland, France, Iran,
Ireland, Italy, Kenya, Kosovo, Kuwait, Laos, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia,
Mauritius, Mexico, Montenegro, Morocco, Myanmar, New Zealand,
Oman, Peru, Portugal, Qatar, Russia, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Serbia,
Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, Thailand, Tunisia, UAE, USA, Vietnam, Wales
COTRI Germany Headquarter:
Fritz-Thiedemann-Ring 20
25746 Heide / Germany
Phone +49 481 85 55 523
Fax +49 481 85 55 121
Email info@china-outbound.com
COTRI China Headquarter:
Suite 412 Lido Office Tower
6 Jiangtai Road
Beijing 100004
Phone +86 10 6417 9226
Email china@china-outbound.com
COTRI Office Shanghai:
Suite 1512 Shui On Plaza
333 Huaihai Rd.
Shanghai 200021
COTRI Office Guangzhou:
Suite 2412 South Tower WTC
371-375 Huanshi East Rd.
Guangzhou 510095
www.china-outbound.com
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COTRI founder and director
Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Georg Arlt FRGS
First visit to People’s Republic of China in 1978
1991-1999 owner of Inbound Tour Operator
China -> Europe (offices in Beijing and Berlin)
COTRI founder and director since 2004
Professor for International Tourism Management
at West Coast University of Applied Sciences (Heide)
Visiting Professor at universities in China and
United Kingdom
Fellow Royal Geographical Society (London)
Research Fellow Japanese Society for the Promotion
of Science (Tokyo)
New publications: COTRI Market Reports
Global Market Report, published
twice a year (January & July)
Regional Market Reports: Europe (March), AsiaPacific (April), Americas (September), Africa (October)
COTRI Blog at Forbes.com:
www.forbes.com/sites/profdrwolfganggarlt
www.china-outbound.com
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COTRI around the world
www.china-outbound.com
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More background:
Sept 24th, 2014: Twelve hour non-stop webinar on
China’s outbound tourism around the world
12,500 log-ins from more than 120 countries
Free download on www.gbtimes.com/webinar
www.china-outbound.com
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Neue Gäste aus China:
Attracting and Satisfying the
Second Wave of Chinese Travellers
Nine Theses and a Summary
(Slides will be in English, presentation in German
Folien in Englisch, Präsentation in Deutsch)
www.china-outbound.com
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Thesis 1
Chinese Outbound Travel will continue to grow despite
slowdown of Chinese GDP growth
Long-distance outbound travel for Top 5% of Chinese society is
investment, not holiday:
Direct investment: Business travel, real estate and company
investment for profit and for passports
Indirect investment: “Leisure” Travel for self-esteem and peer
group confirmation of status and prestige; social capital
Long-term investment: Formal and informal education,
market knowledge, experiences
www.china-outbound.com
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Thesis 2
Chinese Outbound Travel will increasingly represent a
major part of global tourism, but will still be restricted
to the top decile of the Chinese society
In 2014 10% of all international border crossings (115 out of
1,115 million trips) will start from Mainland China,
conducted by app. 5.5% of Mainland Chinese citizens (70 out
of 1,350 million inhabitants)
In 2020 14% of all international border crossings (210 out of
1,500 million trips) will start from Mainland China,
conducted by app. 9% of Mainland Chinese citizens (120 out
of 1,400 million inhabitants)
www.china-outbound.com
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CHINA – INTERNATIONAL TOURISM SOURCE MARKET NO. 1 IN THE WORLD
IN TERMS OF BORDER-CROSSINGS
 83 million border
crossings in 2012
 98 million border
crossings in 2013
 85 million border
crossings Jan.–Sept.
2014
 More than 100
million border
crossings Jan.-Nov.
2014
www.china-outbound.com
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CHINA – INTERNATIONAL
TOURISM SOURCE
MARKET NO. 1 IN THE
WORLD
IN TERMS OF SPENDING
2011: 52 bio. Euro
2012: 80 bio. Euro
2013: 97 bio. Euro
2014: 125 bio. Euro (est.)
www.china-outbound.com
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Thesis 3
Chinese outbound “tourism” spending will not grow
faster than number of travellers anymore
Spending for international travel will grow in 2014 at app.
similar level to growth of number of border crossings from
China.
A shift at the upper end of the market from buying überexpensive watches to buying real estate will result in the latter
kind of "shopping" not being recorded any longer as travel
expenditure, even though the amount of money moving with
the travellers out of China is actually increasing.
Jewellery does not buy residence permits, "Golden Visa“ or
passports, OFDI does in an increasing number of countries.
www.china-outbound.com
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Thesis 4
Increasing Chinese outbound traveller numbers will
benefit smaller country destinations and smaller
destinations within major destinations, neighbouring
countries losing bragging power
Hong Kong and Macau in Q1-3 2014: +14%, +11% below average
Countries in Southeast Asia suffer in 2014 dramatic decrease:
Thailand Q1-Q3 2014: -19% (2013: +93%)
Malaysia H1: -27%
Vietnam Q3 2014: -24% (Q3 2013: +72%)
Singapore M1-8 2014: -29%
South Korea slows down: Q1-Q3 2014 +36% (Q1-Q3 2013: +59%)
Total gambling expenditure still growing, but declining in Macau
and Singapore
www.china-outbound.com
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Thesis 5
Chinese outbound travellers age band will grow wider
International travel being less perceived as special or
dangerous, more children will join their parents or travel with
their classmates or friends.
First generation of Chinese affluent pensioners part of
outbound market. Age group 55-65 unlike the majority of
middle-aged affluent travellers not “time-poor”, can afford to
go on trips which are less frantic, last several weeks and are less
driven by the question of what others might think about their
trip.
River and Ocean cruises, special interest tours will benefit from
families and pensioners.
www.china-outbound.com
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Thesis 6
“The” Chinese outbound tourists does not exist, niche
offers, thematic tours, bespoke travel arrangements are
getting ever more important beside the other segments
Mass-market package tour still greatest volume in number of
participants, but not in number of spending, often first-time
traveller from second/third tier cities, still interested in cheap
trips, sightseeing and shopping for prestige
Business/official travellers, still interested in luxury and highlevel - if less conspicuous - consumption
Chinese expats and students increasing in importance,
travelling themselves and receiving guests
www.china-outbound.com
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Thesis 7
Niche topics, themed tours, bespoke arrangements
“Second Wave”moving from “money rich – time poor”
to “money and experience rich – time poor”
95% of affluent and travel-savvy “Second Wave” travellers
have already been at least once to Greater China, Australia,
Europe
Vast majority does not want to travel with package tour but
self-organised or with (outbound or inbound) tour operator
organised bespoke tour with fellow travellers (friends,
family, colleagues, “donkeys”), visa decreasingly being a
problem
www.china-outbound.com
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Thesis 8
Development of expectations and behaviour in the
“Second Wave” – Best Practice Examples
Value for money rather than cheap prices
Buying what money can’t buy
Intensive short experiences rather than sightseeing
Instant certified pro in Slovenian honey/Cambridge punting
New locations rather than Eiffel Tower again
Wuppertal and Mainz after Berlin, Perugia after Rome
Shopping for lifestyle affirmation rather brands
Local brands: Fissler pans rather than LV bag
www.china-outbound.com
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Thesis 9
Chinese outbound travellers more confident and more
demanding than ever
Chinese outbound travellers are told to behave better (Xi
Jinping in Maldives: “Don’t destroy the corals and eat more
local fish”) but are also demanding greater attention in parallel
to their increasing discovery of their needs and preferences
Increasing necessity to keep the balance between treating
Chinese Second Wave guests as international citizens (Xu Jing
(UNWTO): “We have passed the stage of hot water kettles”)
and still showing respect to the Chinese culture
Increasing necessity to deeply understand the segments of the
market and to adapt products, services and communication
www.china-outbound.com
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… and a Summary
Attracting and Satisfying the Second Wave of Chinese
Travellers
The good news: Second Wave Chinese travellers can be attracted
to new places, new activities, new months of the year, new
products to buy compared to other “western” visitors, bringing
not only more business, but a different kind of business.
The bad news: To satisfy the Second Wave Chinese travellers in a
way that induces them to recommend the place/activity/season
to their peers, a number of things have to be done in the right
way.
Any answer to the question “What do Chinese travellers want?”
is a wrong answer.
www.china-outbound.com
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… and a Summary
Attracting and Satisfying the Second Wave of Chinese
Travellers by …
… giving the right kind of reasons to come (novelty, exclusivity,
intensity, connection to China, endorsement by celebrity, quality
labels, hype on Social Media)
Example York: Visibility in the market through CTW Destination
Label, Chinese-language information, participation in fairs, using
Chinese Social Media
www.china-outbound.com
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… and a Summary
Attracting and Satisfying the Second Wave of Chinese
Travellers by …
… giving the right story to tell and the opportunity to do so
(chance to experience a fitting unambiguous story, co-presence
enabled by smartphone and WiFi, certification, documentation)
Example York:
York Minster, National Railway Museum and York’s Chocolate
Story as part of the “York Story”, China readyness documented
by CTW Quality Labels
www.china-outbound.com
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… and a Summary
Attracting and Satisfying the Second Wave of Chinese
Travellers by …
… giving the right feeling of being more welcomed as Second
Wave Chinese traveller than any other kind of customer by
words, deeds, services and products
Example York:
Supporting User Generated Content spreading the positive York
experience on Chinese Social Media
Training management and front-line employees to welcome
Chinese customers
www.china-outbound.com
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Neue Gäste aus China:
Nicht nur neue Kunden, sondern mit dem richtigen
Angebot für andere Aktivitäten, Destinationen und
Jahreszeiten zu begeisternde Gäste
Nicht nur neue Kunden, sondern Gäste mit anderen
Ansprüchen und Erwartungen und dem Bedürfnis
sicher sein zu können, dass man auf sie gut
vorbereitet ist und ihnen mit Respekt begegnet
www.china-outbound.com
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Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!
Thank you for your attention!
Ich freue mich auf Ihre Kommentare
und Fragen!
Looking forward to your
comments and questions!
COTRI Contact:
Tel. +49 481 8555 523
Mail arlt@china-outbound.com
Web www.china-outbound.com
Blog www.forbes.com/sites/profdrwolfganggarlt
COTRI is moving:
From January 2015 please
meet us in our new headquarter
in HAMBURG!
ITB Academy Contact:
Jessica Varga
Tel. +49 30 3038 2528
Mail varga@messe-berlin.de
www.china-outbound.com
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