Climate Change and Consequences in the Intra-­‐Americas Region(IAR)
Dr. Jorge E. González NOAA-­‐CREST Professor of Mechanical Engineering, The City College of New York, New York, NY Dr. Moises Angeles Malaspina & Dr. Nathan Hosannah Post-­‐Docs, The City College of New York, New York, NY Jhon Ibsen Web Developer, The City College of New York, New York, NY Dr Daniel E. Comarazamy NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/SOCD, The City College of New York, New York, NY Equisha Glenn NOAA-­‐CREST Fellow, The City College of New York, New York, NY Pablo OrCz Mechanical Engineering Dept., The City College of New York, New York, NY Coastal Environmental Research Group
cuerg.ccny.cuny.edu
Guiding QuesCons •  What is Caribbean climate? •  How is the CC changing? •  What are the regional, local, and societal implicaLons of these changes? •  How the CC will change in the future? •  What future research is needed? Factors to be considered for climate studies in the Intra-­‐Americas Region Sea Surface Temperature Gamble et al., 2008
IAR Climate Overview Bimodal PrecipitaCon Trend: o  Early Rainfall: April -­‐ June o  Late Rainfall: Aug -­‐ Nov Mid-­‐Summer Drought (MSD) –  Cause(s) for MSD variability is sLll unknown –  More pronounced in western Caribbean –  PotenLal link to Saharan dust contribuLon Daily Accumulated Precipitation for the IAR
(mm/day)
o  Dry Season: Dec -­‐ Mar GPCP monthly precipitaLon data 200
180
Precipitation 1979 to 2010
160
Precipitation 1979 to 1994
140
Precipitation 1995 to 2010
120
100
Mid-­‐Summer Drought 80
60
Slight increase in LRS precipitaLon within past 15 years 40
20
0
J
F
M
A
M
Months
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
PrecipitaCon in the Caribbean –  Match global average changes –  Annual and decadal variability –  Related to SSTs 1) Angeles et al.,2010; 2) Magaña et al.,2009; 3) Gamble et al., 2008; 4) Comarazamy et al 2006; 5) Frich et al., 2002; 6) Peterson et al., 2002; 7) IPCC, 2007; 8) Spence et al., 2004; 9) Stephenson et al., 2007 Observed Caribbean Climatology DRY SEASON EARLY RAINFALL SEASON LATE RAINFALL SEASON (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) SST observed climatology from Reynolds-­‐Smith data, 1982-­‐2003 for (a) DS, (b) ERS, (c) LRS and Climatological Rainfall from CPC-­‐Merged Analysis, 1979-­‐2003 for (d) DS, (e) ERS and (f) LRS. Aerosols and Caribbean Bi-­‐Modal Annual Aerosol Variation (NW Puerto Rico, 2003)
2.0
AOT (normalized to average)
RMS Smoothed Data plus
Annual & Semi-annual Fit
380 nm
440 nm
500 nm
675 nm
870 nm
1.5
1.0
0.5
01/01/03
04/02/03
07/02/03
Date
10/01/03
12/31/03
Guiding QuesLons HOW IS THE CARIBBEAN CLIMATE CHANGING? Recent Detected Changes of SSTs in the IAR IAR sensiCve to global climate changes •  Caribbean SSTs warming similar to global averages •  Warming varies throughout the region 0.015°C per year Recent Detected Changes of SSTs in the IAR LeV-­‐Daily SpaCal Variability Right-­‐Daily Anomalies SSTs Seasonal Trends (1982-­‐2012) Early Rainfall Season Over the past 30 years: Ø Warming (significant) •  Gulf Coast •  Northeast of South America Late Rainfall Season Ø Cooling •  Around coast of Florida Ø  Increasing trend in DS not sufficient to moLvate convecLon, leads to drying trend Dry Season SSTs Seasonal Trends (1982-­‐2012) Early Rainfall Season Late Rainfall Season Regions of greatest warming have high cross-­‐correlaCon with precipitaCon in that same area • ERS – 0.78 • LRS – 0.79 Dry Season Regional Changes in Upper Air CondiCons Horizontal Temp. VerLcal Temp. Avg Trade Wind Magnitude CLLJ Large-­‐scale temperature (˚C) and near surface (between the 1000-­‐700mb pressure levels) wind magnitude (m s-­‐1) change in the Caribbean basin from 1955-­‐59 to 2000-­‐04. Calculated from the NCEP Reanalysis 2.5˚ resoluLon data averaged at 02 and 14 LST, the two closest Lmes in the 4-­‐hourly data to the local overnight low and dayLme high temperatures, during the 3-­‐month Caribbean ERS (Comarazamy et al., 2011). Guiding QuesLons WHAT ARE THE REGIONAL, LOCAL, AND SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS OF THESE CHANGES? Drought Index in the Caribbean Region Ø  Standardized PrecipitaCon Index (SPI) Ø  It is a staLsLcal tool defined to monitor drought at a given Lme scale and rainfall staLon. This index can also be used to monitor periods of anomalous wet events. Ø  3-­‐month SPI: reflects short/medium moisture condiLon. In agriculture gives an indicaLon of Soil Moisture condiLon at the growing season. SPI > 2.0 ClassificaCon Extremely wet 1.5 to 1.99 Very wet 1.0 to 1.49 Moderately wet 0 to 0.99 Mildly wet 0 to -­‐0.99 Mild drought -­‐1 to -­‐1.49 Moderate drought -­‐1.5 to -­‐1.99 < -­‐2.0 Severe drought Extreme drought Drought Index in the Caribbean Region Ø  SPI 3 month window size for June 1994 shows severe to extreme drought in Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Ø  Central America also have extreme drought, while the northern Caribbean region is mildly to moderate wet. Ø  Long term drought index in Dominican Republic show periods of severe and extreme drought events. Ø  Long term annual minimum SPI shows an increasing trend, which means slight drought reducLon but sLll in the category of moderate to severe drought. Monthly SPI Minimum Annual SPI CMAP coordinate 18.25oN, 71.25oW South East DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 0.0215/year Extreme drought June 1994 1980 -­‐ 2014 Extreme drought Nov 2009 Heat Index – a measure of heat-­‐stress danger Ø  From 1948 to 1990, Dominican Republic shows a HI increasing trend of 0.059oF per year. Ø  Dominican Republic’s heat index indicates a fast increasing trend from the year 1990 to 2014 (0.195 oF/year). Ø  Long-­‐term HI trend and moving average also shows the HI increasing tendency. safe cauCon NCEP coordinate 17.5oN, 70oW South West DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 0.1915oF/year Monthly Maximum 0.059oF/year 1948 -­‐ 2014 high cauCon Impacts of Climate Change in Energy Infrastructure in Tropical Coastal Regions •  Energy per capita required –  Energy acLvity is linked to climate change in several ways. –  There is a direct relaLonship between the energy required for air condiLoning systems and the environmental surface air temperature and humidity condiLons. Impacts of Climate Change in Energy Infrastructure in Tropical Coastal Regions Ø  The HVAC is the required to reduce the temperature and humidity to comfort levels. Ø  HVAC is increasing at a rate 0.24GW per year, which correspond with the long-­‐term increasing trend of the real total electric consumpLon per capita. HVAC for Dominican Republic (1980-­‐2013) NCEP coordinate 17.5oN, 70oW South West DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Total Energy ConsumpLon for Dominican Republic (1980-­‐2013) The world bank data What are the potenCal consequenCal effects of the observed Caribbean climate changes in local ecosystems? "El agua se lo llevó todo": el misterio de los
lagos crecientes del Caribe. BBC-Espanol,
1/16.2014
Rising Tide Is a Mystery That Sinks Island Hopes – by New York Times – Jan. 11, 2014 Lakes Enriquillo & Azuei Growth Lake Enriquillo/Azuei growth -­‐> Local manifestaCons of Caribbean SSTs trends •  Lakes in the Enriquillo Basin have experienced significant surface area changes over ~15yrs •  Surface area coverage of lakes has more than doubled since 2004 •  The situaLon has reached criLcal levels affecLng communiLes, biodiversity, internaLonal trade, and the local economy •  A hydro-­‐met hypothesis •  Increased SSTs -­‐> Increased moisture -­‐
> Increased pcp (verLcal and horizontal) and runoff -­‐> Increase in lake area •  Other hypothesis include: –  Earthquakes cause aquifers to feed lakes at increased rates; LCLU changes increase surface runoff into lakes; Increased frequency of tropical storm acLvity 21 Lake Enriquillo/Azuei Area Increase 2000 -­‐ 2015 140!
375!
Lake Enriquillo Surface Area (km^2)!
350!
250!
225!
200!
125!
175!
120!
125!
115!
75!
Lake Azuei Surface Area (km^2)!
130!
275!
150!
100!
May-82!
Jul-83!
Aug-84!
Sep-85!
Oct-86!
Nov-87!
Dec-88!
Jan-90!
Mar-91!
Apr-92!
May-93!
Jun-94!
Jul-95!
Aug-96!
Sep-97!
Nov-98!
Dec-99!
Jan-01!
Feb-02!
Mar-03!
Apr-04!
May-05!
Jul-06!
Aug-07!
Sep-08!
Oct-09!
Nov-10!
Dec-11!
Jan-13!
Mar-14!
110!
50!
135!
325!
300!
Lake Enriquillo Surface Area (km^2)!
Lakes Area Changes as Observed from Satellites Lake Azuei Surface Area (km^2)!
Year!
23 Lakes Area Changes & PrecipitaCon (through July 2015) 24 Ground ObservaCons (Barahona/NCDC) 25 Why is the Surface Area of the Lakes Changing DramaCcally? A Hydro-­‐Meteorology Hypothesis EvaporaCon increase over the sea PrecipitaCon increase Increase of fresh water producCon Runoff increase Lake evaporaCon decrease Lake level rise Increased precipitaCon ReducCon in evaporaCon •
•
Increase in orographic water producCon Increase in Lake surface area Increased moisture in the lake area due to increased SSTs surrounding the lake basin Increasing fresh water producLon in the area due to increased horizontal rain produced mainly by orographic cloud formaLon in the surrounding cloud montane forests A combinaCon of these factors is leading to Total Lake Surface Area increase Lakes Enriquillo & Azuei Growth A Hydro-­‐Meteorology Hypothesis Tested with Atmospheric Modeling: Results for Differences in Key Variables Total surface precipitaCon and Total liquid water content between 700-­‐1500 m April 1995 and 2003 Modeling grids showing horizontal resoluCon of each. Averaged surface wind (vectors) with verCcal moCons (contours) and Total liquid water content along cross-­‐secCon at 18.25 N Lat. A Hydro-­‐Meteorology Hypothesis Tested with Atmospheric Modeling: Results for Differences in Key Variables Total surface precipitaCon and Total liquid water content between 700-­‐1500 m April 2003 and 2012 Modeling grids showing horizontal resoluCon of each. Averaged surface wind (vectors) with verCcal moCons (contours) and Total liquid water content along cross-­‐secCon at 18.25 N Lat. Guiding QuesLons HOW WILL CARIBBEAN CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE FUTURE? METHODOLOGY FOR FUTURE PREDICTIONS GCM (250km) Greenhouse gas concentraCon Climatological Periods Atmospheric Component Oceanic Component Air Temp Rel. Humid Wind speed SST 1996-­‐2010 2011-­‐2025 2026-­‐2040 2041-­‐2055 2056-­‐2069 2070-­‐2084 2085-­‐2098 NCEP Data 1998 RCM (<5km) RCM OUTPUT Air temperature Wind speed rainfall Methodology for predicLon of future climate changes in the IAR; originally presented in Angeles et al. 2007. FUTURE CARIBBEAN CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATED BY GCM Climate change difference future climate ( 2041-­‐2055) -­‐ climatology (1996-­‐2010) What may be the future of the lakes? Annual Volume added to the lake Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 V (km3) 4.678 4.994 5.310 5.626 5.942 6.258 6.574 6.890 7.206 7.522 7.838 8.154 8.470 8.786 9.102 9.418 H (m) -­‐34 -­‐32.4 -­‐31.5 -­‐30.6 -­‐29.8 -­‐28.9 -­‐28.1 -­‐27.3 -­‐26.5 -­‐25.7 -­‐24.9 -­‐24.2 -­‐23.4 -­‐22.7 -­‐22.0 -­‐21.3 A (km2) 324.3 351.9 366.2 379.1 390.8 401.5 411.2 420.0 428.1 435.5 442.3 448.5 454.2 459.6 464.5 469.1 Year 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 years 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 V (km3) 9.734 10.050 10.366 10.682 10.998 11.314 11.630 11.946 12.262 12.578 12.894 13.210 13.526 13.842 H (m) -­‐20.6 -­‐19.9 -­‐19.2 -­‐18.5 -­‐17.9 -­‐17.2 -­‐16.6 -­‐16.0 -­‐15.3 -­‐14.7 -­‐14.1 -­‐13.5 -­‐12.9 -­‐12.3 0.316 (km3) A (km2) 473.5 477.6 481.4 485.1 488.6 492.1 495.4 498.6 501.8 505.0 508.2 511.4 514.6 517.8 Year 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056 years V (km3) 30 14.158 31 14.474 32 14.790 33 15.106 34 15.422 35 15.738 36 16.054 37 16.370 38 16.686 39 17.002 40 17.318 41 17.634 42 17.950 43 18.266 H (m) -­‐11.7 -­‐11.1 -­‐10.6 -­‐10.0 -­‐9.4 -­‐8.9 -­‐8.3 -­‐7.8 -­‐7.2 -­‐6.7 -­‐6.2 -­‐5.6 -­‐5.1 -­‐4.6 A (km2) 521.1 524.5 527.9 531.5 535.2 538.9 542.9 546.9 551.1 555.5 560.0 564.7 569.6 574.7 What’s next? •  In-­‐depth analysis of present climate change consequences (i.e. precip; fluxes). •  Future, high resoluLon climate projecLons are needed to beoer understand local consequences, and in specific to the Lakes region. •  Beoer understanding of extreme weather events including variability of cyclonic acLvity in regional and local scales. •  Beoer understanding of the role of aerosols in future climate (see next slide). •  Beoer understanding of how local land use changes interact with a regional changing climate. •  Specific, resource assessment (water, energy) as funcLons of these observed and projected changes. PrecipitaLon and Aerosols InteracLons Summer 2015 hop://www.srh.noaa.gov/rCmages/sju/analysis/models/geos5_AOT.gif hop://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php PrecipitaLon and Aerosols InteracLons Summer 2015 hop://www.srh.noaa.gov/rCmages/sju/analysis/models/geos5_AOT.gif hop://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Climate Change and Consequences in the Intra-­‐Americas Region(IAR)
Questions & Comments
Dr. Jorge E. González NOAA-­‐CREST Professor of Mechanical Engineering, The City College of New York, New York, NY gonzalez@me.ccny.cuny.edu Coastal Environmental Research Group
cuerg.ccny.cuny.edu