McGraw Hill Construction - Dodge
U.S. Construction Outlook
for the
20th Annual CFO Roundtable
and Tax Director Workshop
September 2014
Keven McCook
Senior Director
Contractors and Services
McGraw Hill Construction
1
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Agenda
U.S. Construction Market Indicators and Sectors
The Environment -- Macroeconomic Picture
Single Family Housing and Multifamily Housing
Commercial Building
Institutional Building, plus Manufacturing Bldgs.
Public Works and Electric Utilities
Total Construction Forecast
2
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U.S. Construction Market Indicators
Both Construction Starts and Construction Spending show
there’s a recovery underway.
Construction starts – the full value of a project
is entered into the month in which work begins.
Comes from actual project report.
Construction put in place or spending –
work as
. it occurs, estimated for a
given month from a sample of projects.
In effect, the impact of a project is
spread out from the project’s start
to its completion.
3
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U.S. Construction Market Indicators
Total Construction Starts will lead the pattern for Construction Spending.
• Construction starts have led the pattern of
construction spending in the 2010-2011
upturn.
• The percent change for 2012 was similar –
starts up 10% and spending up 9%.
In 2013, starts up 9% and spending up 6%.
• The starts data tends to show wider
swings than spending
.
.
Non-Residential Construction
Construction spending (MHC basis) up only 1% in 2013
Expect stronger spending gains in 2014 and 2015
As non-res construction continues its expansion
4
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U.S. Construction Sectors (Starts)
The pattern has varied by major sector. Residential upturn has paused; commercial
still heading up; institutional turning the corner; public works now weakening.
5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
+31% +26% +12% +20% +27%
+3% +25% +19% +10% +13%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
+9% -10% -12% +5% +10%
-9% 0%
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
4% +10% +17%
U.S. Construction – Dodge Momentum Index
The Dodge Momentum Index offers insight on what lies ahead.
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) tracks
the first (or initial) reports for nonresidential building
projects at the design stage (architect selected).
Some recent points:
• The DMI bottomed out in July 2011,
and has been trending upward tenuously
since that time.
• Hesitation in DMI indicated that early
stage of recovery would be subject to pauses.
• The DMI has picked up some of the timing
shown by commercial and institutional starts.
Increases in DMI for institutional component
during 2013 suggests that the decline
for this sector overall is reaching an end.
6
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TITLE
STATE PROJECT TYPE(S)
OWNER: COMPANY NAME
North Building Apartment Tower (Chicago, IL)
IL
Apartments
Saxony Capital
Sophia Square Apartments & Retail Building
IN
Apartments 4+ Stories
Keystone Realty Group
West Hollywood Park Ph II Recreation Center
CA
Athletic Facility
City of West Hollywood
Multi-Generational Community Recreational Facility
NM Athletic Facility
City of Hobbs
RFP/CM: Choctaw Nation Durant Medical Clinic
OK
Clinic/Medical Office
Choctaw Nation Hospital / Health Services Auth
Daniels Chemistry Building (Addition)
WI
College/University
State of Wisconsin Dept of Plan Distribution
School of Dentistry
WV College/University
University Of West Virginia Board Of Trustees
CHS Seismic Correction and Fire Safety
CA
College/University
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
UNC Campus Commons Building
CO
College/University
University of Northern Colorado
Instructional Science Facility (Ph 1)
WI
College/University
State of Wisconsin Dept of Plan Distribution
North Central College Science Center
IL
College/University
North Central College
Univ of Wisconsin Haas Fine Arts (Renovation & Add)
WI
College/University
State of Wisconsin Dept of Plan Distribution
School of Engineering / Brain Science Building
RI
College/University
Brown University Department of Facilities Mgmnt.
Student Services Center
MD College/University
Montgomery College Office of Procurement
UIUC Everitt Lab Bioengineering (Renovation)
IL
College/University
University of Illinois Facilities & Services
Franz Hall Seismic Renovation & Related Projects
CA
College/University
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Hospital Patient Care Facility (Renov/Upgrade) Ph 1F
KY
College/University;
University of Kentucky (UK) Central Purchasing
Grosvenor Townhouse Development
MD Condominiums 1-3 Stories EYA Const Inc
IIT Innovation Center Chicago, IL
IL
Education Building
Illinois Institute of Technology
RFQ/AE: Arkansas State Veterans Home
AR
Elderly/Assisted Living
Arkansas Department of Veterans Affairs
Fulton State Hospital
MO Hospital
Missouri Department of Mental Health
Hotel Indigo (Conversion)
GA
Hotel/Motel
Intercontinental Hotels & Resorts
High School #4 (Lease/Leaseback)
CA
Middle/Senior High School Perris Union High School District
RFP/GC: South Region High School #8 w/Gym
CA
Middle/Senior High School Los Angeles Unified School District
High School
KY
Middle/Senior High School Fayette County Public Schools
Scott County High School & Athletic Facilities
KY
Middle/Senior High School Scott County Board of Education
Swatara Plaza at The Concourse Mixed Use
PA
Mixed Use
Smith Land Improvement Corp
Outer Harbor Future Development (161 acres) Master Plan NY
Mixed use
Erie Canal Harbor Development Corp
Toyota Corporate Campus (New)
TX
Office
Toyota Manufacturing Texas
Office Park Development (San Jose Megaproject)
CA
Office
Peery Arrillaga
Amtrak 30th Street Station Development
PA
Passenger Terminal
AmTrak
Intermodal Transportation Hub/St Car Project
OK
Passenger Terminal
City of Oklahoma City (And Its Trusts)
New Elementary School (Thomas Jefferson MS site)
VA
Primary School
Arlington County Public Schools Purchasing Dept
Maine Correctional Center Rebuild/Reuse Feasibility
ME
Prison/Jail
State of ME Dept of Corrections
Clarksburg Premium Outlets at Cabin Branch
MD Regional Shopping Mall
Aventist Healthcare
Wastewater Treatment Plant (Renovation/Addition)
MT
Sewage Treatment Plant
City of Billings Public Works, Engineering Div.
Kennesaw Shopping Center Whole Foods Store
GA
Shopping Center
Fuqua Development LLC
Gaylord Stadium
OK
Stadium;
The University of Oklahoma Board of Regents
EWU Science II- Biology and Geology Building
WA Univ Education Building
Eastern Washington University, Project Manager
7
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Edith Transfer Station/Office/Truck Maintenance
NM Vehicle Service
City of Albuquerque CIP Divsion
U.S. Non-Residential Building
ARCHITECT: COMPANY NAME
Hartshorne Plunkard
CSO Architects, Inc.
LPA Inc
Barker Rinker Seacat Architecture
James R Childers Architect, Inc.
Strang Inc
Einhorn Yaffee & Prescott
Zimmer Gunsul Frasca
RNL Design
River Architects Inc
Holabird & Root, LLC
HGA (Hammel Green Abrahamson
Kieran Timberlake Assocs LLP
Cho Benn Holback Architects, Inc.
BSA LifeStructures
CO Architects
GBBN (Louisville)
Lessard Design
John Ronan Architect
Polk Stanley Wilcox
Parsons Brinckerhoff
John Portman & Associates
Baker Nowicki Design Studio
DLR Group WWCOT Architects
Tate Hill Jacobs Architects
Sherman Carter Barnhart Architects
Smith Land Improvement Corp
Perkins & Will
Corgan Associates Inc
Kenneth Rodrigues & Partners
Skidmore Owings & Merrill
TAP Architecture
VMDO Architects, PC
S M R T Architects & Engineers
Architects Orange
HDR Engineering
Pieper O'Brien Herr Architects
Populous Architects PC
LMN Architects
J R Miller & Associates
Projects in the Dodge Database that will lead the way to further growth
U.S. Macroeconomic Picture
On balance, the pace of economic growth has been subdued – expansion followed
by deceleration. Improved 2nd half of 2013 followed by a down Q1 and an up Q2.
GDP Pattern:
History
2009
-2.8%
Forecast
2010 2011
2012 2013
2014 2015
+2.5% +1.6% +2.3% +2.2% +2.1% +3.2%
Shape of Recovery:
•
•
8
One caution: The second-quarter GDP report up 4.2% - came from inventory building rather
than final demand.
For 2015 and 2016, we predict GDP growth will
be 3.2% and 3.5%, respectively, followed by
deceleration as we see long term interests
move up.
•
Subdued –
Periods of moderate expansion have
been followed by deceleration.
•
Recent positives - corporate profits healthy,
GDP in 2013 Q3 (+4.5%) fairly strong.
FY 2014 federal budget passed in January.
Debt ceiling battle averted.
•
In 2014 Q1, adverse winter weather,
slower buildup of inventories by firms,
weak exports dampened GDP (-2.1%).
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Macroeconomic Picture
Recent employment statistics provide a relatively upbeat view of the US Economy.
After a slow start, the pace of job growth finally topped the jobs lost during the recession.
• Jobs lost from Feb.’08 to Feb. ’10: 8.7 Million.
• Job creation so far in 2010-2014:
9.5 Million. Unemployment rate at 6.1%
• Job growth in Jan.’13-Nov.’13:
in Dec.’13-Jan.’14:
204,000 /mo.
114,000 /mo.
in Feb.‘14.-Aug.‘14: 226,000 /mo.
• Construction employment during 2013 was up 3%,
slightly stronger than the 2% gain reported in 2012.
9
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U.S. Macroeconomic Picture
Long term interest rates edged up in late spring 2013. Federal Reserve began
to taper bond purchases in January 2014 - not much rise yet in long-term rates.
• Since Dec. 2008, the federal funds rate
target set at 0% to .25%.
• Federal Reserve expects “exceptionally low
levels for the federal funds rate at least
through mid-2015.”
10
• At its December 2013 meeting, Fed announced
it would reduce bond purchases from $85 billion
per month to $75 billion per month in January.
Bond purchases at next five meetings
reduced by $10 billion.
Now, proceeding at $25 billion per month,
likely to end by Oct./Nov.
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U.S. Macroeconomic Picture
Other long-term interest rates are still low. Inflation has been subdued,
but there’s emerging concern about rising food and energy prices.
By the end of August, the 10-year municipal
bond rate and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate
stood at 2.2% and 4.1%, respectively
11
The year-over-year change in the CPI
moved above 2% in May 2014, for
the first time since mid-2012. In July,
year-over-year change was 2.0% for
the CPI, 1.9% for the core CPI.
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Macroeconomic Picture
Lending standards for commercial real estate loans continue to show
gradual easing.
• Lending standards for commercial real
estate loans have eased for 14 straight qtrs.
•Impact of financial regulatory reform?
• Lending standards for C&I loans have
eased for 18 out of 19 quarters.
• Mortgage Bankers Survey results –
• But, lending standards for residential mortgage
loans showed little or no easing through 2014 Q1.
In 2014 Q2 – a shift? 18% of respondents
reported easing of lending standards.
12
commercial and multifamily mortgage
originations up 24% in 2012,
up 15% in 2013,
steady during 2014 first half
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U.S. Macroeconomic Picture
Some uncertainty related to federal fiscal matters has eased for now.
GSA to get modest funding hike in 2014. Fed. budget deficit large but shrinking.
Fed. 2014 Spending Bill Finalized in mid-January.
• Follows Dec. 8 budget agreement in Congress,
that eased expected sequestration cuts by $63
billion over two years and lifted overall discretionary
spending by $44.5 billion.
• GSA new construction account gets $506 million,
up from 2013’s $50 million.
• Military construction cut by 8% to $9 billion.
• .Federal-aid
$12.3 Billion June legislation that made
surprising progress; Water Resources
Reform and Development Act (WRRDA)
$12.3 (34 new USACE plus 8 mods)
$10,8 Billion August “patch” keeps
Highway Trust Fund solvent thru May 15
highway obligation limit increased by
$557 million to $40.3 billion, tracking the MAP-21
level.
• Airport Improvement Program grants held at
$3.35 billion.
• Corps of Engineers civil works program lifted
10% to $5.5 billion. (Comparison excludes
post-Sandy repairs.)
• Clean water SRF’s get $1.45 billion and drinking
water SRF’s get $907 million, flat versus 2013.
13
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U.S. Macroeconomic Picture
State fiscal health improving, although still fragile for some states.
With interest rates low, more State construction bond measures are getting passed.
State and local bond measures are providing positive
news for construction. About 75% of statewide bond
referendums have been approved totaling $3.2 billion, as
well as almost $36 billion in local measures.
Voters in NJ approve a measure to borrow $750 million
for university construction projects – first measure since
1988.
San Diego voters approved $2,8 billion in bond measures
for school renovations and computer upgrades.
Houston voters approved $1.9 billion for school
construction
Note: For fiscal year 2014, if TX (+21%) and AK
(175%) excluded, then year-end balance is 3.0%
down from 5% in 2013 – translating into fiscal
caution.
•
Structural challenges remain; the need to
fund pensions and infrastructure work plus
deal with the increasing cost of healthcare
and education.
Public Private Partnerships are an opportunity as
states and local governments seek new ways to
finance construction projects.
The rise in tax collections was smaller (up 1.2%)
compared to what took place in fiscal 2013 (up 7.1%).
14
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U.S. Single Family Housing
Since 2012, single family housing on upswing. However, starts paused in
first half of 2014. Home sales, after stalling recently, have been mixed.
2005
2011
Peak Trough
1.6 mil. 0.4 mil. -75%
15
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U.S. Single Family Housing
Job growth, low inventories, low mortgage rates should help single family housing rise
But, first-time homebuyers having trouble entering market.
• Inventory of new homes for sale fell to
3.9 months in January 2013, lowest since 2004
before edging back up to 5 months.
• Record low mortgage rates – reached 3.3%
In late 2012. Moved back up to 4.6% over
the summer 2013, although then have settled
back. Beginning August, 30-year fixed rate at 4.1%.
• Beginning in Q2, lending standards for home
mortgages while tight, appear to be loosening.
•The 20% down payment requirement is still
restraining first-time homebuyer demand.
• Demographic demand: 1 to 1.2 million units
per year.
However, will “Millennials”, burdened by student debt,
stay in urban apartments and becoming purchasers?
16
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U.S. Multifamily Housing
Construction has shown steady gains since 2010, still going…2017?
2005
Peak
530 K
2009
Trough
136 K -74%
• Apartments led early upturn.
• Some benefit from stimulus act -Affordable housing projects
received a boost.
• Helped by push for
downtown redevelopment.
•
Demographics supportive,
from both empty-nesters
and now young adults.
• Rental vacancy rates retreating,
rents have been increasing.
• Condominium projects now picking up.
• Compared to commercial building,
still a relatively attractive investment
target given more stable revenue.
.
17
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U.S. Multifamily Housing
Recent Large Projects
Value Dwelling
City
State
Year: Mo
Luxury Residential/Hotel Redevelopment - 70 Pine St.
New York
NY
2013:11
800
Residential Development - 626 First Avenue
New York
NY
2014:02
400.0
160
Apartment Building - 220 Central Park South
New York
NY
2014:03
395.0
191
Condominium Apartment Building - 50 West St.
New York
NY
2014:01
390.0
195
The Greenwich Lane Condos - New & Conversion
New York
NY
2013:07
365.0
760
625 W 57 ST Apartment Building
New York
NY
2013:04
334.0
450
Millennium Tower Bldg. Mixed Use- multifamily portion Boston
MA
2013:09
330.2
581
The Hub Downtown Brooklyn Apartment Tower
Brooklyn
NY
2014:03
322.0
271
Apartment Tower - 252 E. 57th St.
New York
NY
2014:02
295.0
1,168
Atelier II Apartment Building
New York
NY
2013:02
267.5
309
Ritz Waikiki Tower Residences
Honolulu
HI
2013:10
$ Millions
Units
450.0
616
425.0
18
Start Date
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U.S. Multifamily Housing
Top 10 Metros – 2013 vs. 2012. Based on Dollars.
Top 10 Metros
Jan.-July 2014
Ranked by Dollars
% ch from a year ago
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
19
New York NY
Washington DC
Los Angeles CA
Miami FL
Boston MA
San Francisco CA
Dallas-Ft. Worth TX
Denver CO
Seattle WA
Phoenix AZ
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
+56%
+41%
+67%
+24%
-28%
+61%
-8%
+5%
+4%
+17%
U.S. Multifamily Housing
New York Multi-Residential Projects Breaking Ground in 2014
PROJECT TITLE
CITY
Residential Development
New York
Apartment Building
New York
Condominium Apartment and Commercial Building
New York
Mixed Use Building (Apartments/Retail)
Astoria
The Hub Downtown Brooklyn Apartment Tower & Stores
Brooklyn
271 Unit Apartment Tower -Retail -Swimming Pool Devel PH II
New York
Mixed Use Building At 590 Fulton ST - AKA 250 Ashland Place
Brooklyn
Apartment Building
Astoria
Apartment Building
New York
Historic Temple Court Hotel & Condo Add/Renovations
New York
Mixed Use Building
Brooklyn
Apartment Bldgs - Retail - Garage at High Line
New York
610 Lexington Avenue Condominiums
New York
River Tides Luxury Rental Apartments
Yonkers
Mixed Use Apartment and School Development
New York
Apartment Building/Parking
Long Island City
Apartment Building
New York
17 MULTI-RESIDENTIAL PROJECTS STARTED JAN THRU JULY
Started
2014:02
2014:03
2014:01
2014:07
2014:03
2014:02
2014:02
2014:04
2014:04
2014:06
2014:05
2014:04
2014:05
2014:07
2014:04
2014:05
2014:01
4 in Los Angeles, 4 in Virginia, 3 in NJ
20
20
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Thous $
Thous SqFt
853
$ 425,000
$ 400,000
472
$ 395,000
584
$ 350,000
786
$ 330,200
686
$ 322,000
617
$ 240,000
582
$ 175,000
399
$ 125,000
403
$ 120,000
175
$ 111,000
409
$ 105,787
338
$ 105,000
274
$
97,000
354
$
95,000
304
$
94,000
337
$
90,000
290
$ 3,579,987
7,861
U.S. Commercial – Office Buildings
Construction has stabilized, with upward trend gaining momentum.
2007
Peak
218 msf
2010
Trough
57 msf -74%
•
Market fundamentals -vacancies peaked in 2010, now retreating.
CB Richard Ellis for 2014 Q2 –
Downtown office vacancy rate at 11.8%
Suburban office vacancy rate at 15.9%
• Much of recent activity -Data Centers
Government office buildings
Corporate buildings,
including headquarters.
21
•
Corporate earnings have been strong.
Will that translate into more
corporate headquarters?
•
A few signs that speculative
development is picking up.
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U.S. Commercial – Office Buildings
Office vacancy rates receding, but in a more gradual manner than prior upturns.
22
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U.S. Commercial – Office Buildings
Recent Large Projects – Data Centers, Government Office Buildings
Value Sq. Ft.
Start Date
$ Millions Thous.
23
City
State
Year: Mo
860.6
600
High Performance Computing Center - U.S. Army
Ft. Meade
MD
2013:06
300.0
476
Facebook Data Center (Building 1)
Altoona
IA
2013:08
200.0
96
Fidelity Investments Data Center
Papillion
NE
2013:05
200.0
190
Travelers Insurance Data Center
Springfield
NE
2014:04
150.0
242
Capital One Data Center
Richmond
VA
2013:01
250.0
0
International Monetary Fund HQ 1 Renovation
Washington
DC
2013:05
191.6
300
Social Security National Support Center
Urbana
MD
2013:02
118.9
696
National Science Foundation HQ Hoffman Block 8 Alexandria
VA
2014:04
100.0 1,500
Health & Human Servics Office - Ph 1 Shell
Rockville
MD
2013:08
100.0
UN General Assembly Building (Renovation)
New York
NY
2013:06
0
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U.S. Commercial – Government Office Building Profile
National Science Foundation Headquarters in Alexandria, Virginia
Owner-Builder/Developer
Architect
Civil Engineer
Electrical Engineer
Structural Engineer
Mechanical Engineer
General Contractor
Plumbing
Earthwork
Hoffman Buildings LP
WDG Architecture LLC
LSG Architecture
Allen & Shariff
Tadjer Cohen Edelson Associates Inc
Allen & Shariff
Balfour Beatty Construction
John J Kirlin Inc
William B Hopke Co Inc
Some of the Owners working with Balfour Beatty
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
24
Firm
The JBG Companies
USACE
George Mason University
USACE
Bainbridge
EPN-SSPO
Turkish American Islamic Foundation
Georgetown Strategic Capital
First Potomac Realty Trust
Rolls-Royce North America
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State
MD
TX
VA
AL
MD
VA
MD
DC
MD
VA
Projects
4
4
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
U.S. Commercial – Office Buildings
Recent Large Projects – Breaking Ground in 2014
Corporate office buildings and private development
TITLE
CITY
STATE
Started
Apple Corporate / Headquarters Building / Parking
Downtown East Offices/Apartments/Retail/Parking Garage
609 Main at Texas Office And Parking Garage
Crescent McKinney and Olive Mixed Use Development
100 Northern Ave Office Building - Fan Pier (Core & Shell)
River Point Office Tower/Parking
FMC Tower at Cira Centre South
Phillips 66 Headquarters Buildings
RA4 Intel Office Building
National Science Foundation/Garage HQ Hoffman Block 8
ZEN Building (Design/Build)
Conde Nast (Fit-Out)
Constellation Exelon Corporation - Headquarters Bldg/Garage
Frost Office Bldg/Parking Garage
Columbia Square Office Buildings & Parking Garage
Riata Vista Office/Parking Phase 2
3737 Buffalo Speedway Office Building (Phase 1)
Cupertino
Minneapolis
Houston
Dallas
Boston
Chicago
Philadelphia
Houston
Hillsboro
Alexandria
Albany
New York
Baltimore
San Antonio
Los Angeles
Austin
Houston
CA
MN
TX
TX
MA
IL
PA
TX
OR
VA
NY
NY
MD
TX
CA
TX
TX
2014:05
2014:07
2014:04
2014:07
2014:03
2014:06
2014:06
2014:01
2014:07
2014:04
2014:02
2014:03
2014:06
2014:02
2014:03
2014:03
2014:03
25
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
Thous $
2,341,000
252,306
196,000
169,500
160,000
146,000
142,650
125,000
125,000
118,900
102,500
100,000
96,922
92,050
92,000
87,288
83,000
Thous
Sq Ft
2,800
1,200
1,250
480
516
1,250
627
1,100
500
696
475
0
264
434
330
524
400
U.S. Commercial – Office Buildings
Top 10 Metros – 2013 vs. 2012. Based on Dollars.
Top 10 Metros
Jan.-July 2014
Ranked by Dollars
% ch from a year ago
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
26
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
San Jose CA
+862%
New York NY
-8%
Houston TX
+159%
Washington DC
-34%
Boston MA
+16%
Chicago IL
+58%
Dallas-Ft. Worth TX -60%
Seattle WA
-16%
Minneapolis MN
+3712%
San Antonio TX
+327%
U.S. Commercial - Hotels
Hotel construction up sharply in 2011-2012; more growth underway.
2007
Peak
85 msf
2010
Trough
17 msf -80%
•
More positives now:
Business travel has improved
Industry financials stronger
• Casino building becoming more active
• Several major projects reaching
groundbreaking.
• Occupancies for 2013 at 62.3%
Revpar for 2013 up 5.4%, 2014 ytd up 7.5%
27
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U.S. Commercial – Hotels
Recent Large Projects
TITLE
Marriott Marquis Hotel And Swimming Pool
Cleveland Convention Center Hilton Hotel (Design/Build)
Hilton Hawaiian Village Grand Islander Time Share Towers
Metropolis Mixed-Use Development (Phase I)
MOA Luxury Hotel/Retail/Restaurant/Parking/Pool
Convention Center Hotels (2) Aloft & Element /Parking Garage
Great Wolf Lodge Resort Hotel & Water Park/ Swimming Pool
28
CITY
State
Houston TX
Cleveland OH
Honolulu HI
Los AngeleCA
Minneapoli MN
Boston
MA
Garden Gr CA
Started
2014:05
2014:05
2014:07
2014:07
2014:03
2014:06
2014:04
Thous $ Thous Sq Ft
272,200
864
260,000
600
190,000
550
114,200
274
95,000
300
92,000
377
90,000
495
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Commercial - Warehouses
Warehouse construction showed healthy percent growth; expansion maturing.
2007
Peak
254 msf
2010
Trough
49 msf -81%
• Vacancy rates are easing.
Reached 14.5% in 2010 Q2, and have
since retreated to 10.8% in 2014 Q2.
• Some larger regional facilities being
built by major retailers. In 2011-2013,
several large facilities built for
Amazon.com.
• Continued need for updated facilities
to handle improved inventory management
practices.
• Increased trade would help lift demand
for warehouse space Imports/exports
likely to be dampened in near term,
due to global economic slowdown.
29
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Commercial – Warehouses
Recent Large Projects
Thous Sq Ft
TITLE
STATE
Started
Thous $
Distribution Center Expansion Project - Urban Outfitters PA
2014:01
105,000
1,000
30
Nordstrom
Online
Order Fulfillment
PA
2014:02
1,142
McGraw
Hill Construction
Confidential. AllCenter
information presented @ McGraw Hill
Construction, 2014.
All rights reserved. 79,000
U.S. Commercial - Warehouses
Other Warehouse Characteristics – Average Project Size.
31
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Commercial - Stores
After steep decline in 2008-2010, store construction is growing – but slowly.
2007
Peak
312 msf
2010
Trough
81 msf -74%
• Derived demand from housing
market – definitely true on
the downside of the cycle;
also present on the upside of the cycle.
• Recent retail sales have fluctuated.
Payroll tax increase could be a negative
for consumer spending in near term.
• Some outlet mall projects starting,
along with projects by a few major
retailers.
• Extreme discounters (Family Dollar,
Dollar General) still expanding.
• Store renovations have seen
much smaller decline.
32
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Commercial - Stores
Construction by Major Retail Chains.
Major Retail Chains
Projects Started during 2013
Millions of Dollars
33
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Commercial – Stores
Recent Large Projects
TITLE
CITY
STATE
Started
Thous $
International Market Place (Redevelopment)
Honolulu HI
2014:04
215,600
Mountain Grove at Citrus Plaza
Redlands CA
2014:06
137,500
34 Bloc Downtown
The
Renovation/Transformation
Los
AngeCA
2014:04
McGraw Hill Construction
Confidential. All information presented
@ McGraw
Hill Construction, 2014.
All rights reserved. 80,000
Thous Sq Ft
357
670
0
U.S. Commercial - Stores
Other Store Characteristics – Alterations and Average Project Size.
35
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Institutional – Educational Buildings
The decline for educational buildings reaching an end.
2008
2013
Peak Trough
224 msf 110 msf -51%
• Several large bond measures
passed
in November 2012 elections, in Texas,
California, New Jersey, among other
states..
• College endowments investment returns
increased 12% in 2013, after being basically
flat in 2012.
• Major universities now re-visiting deferred
capital spending plans.
36
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Institutional – Educational Buildings
K-12 school construction larger and more volatile than colleges/universities.
Sq. ft. for K-12 school construction
was 3.3 times the size of
Colleges/Univ./Comm. Colleges.
37
Dollars for K-12 school construction
were 2.1 times the size of
Colleges/Univ./Comm. Colleges.
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Institutional – Educational Buildings
Large Projects Started in 2013 for Comparison
38
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Institutional – Educational Buildings
Recent Large Projects – Breaking Ground in 2014
TITLE
U of Buffalo School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences - P1
20 Washington Road (Re-Purpose)
David Starr Jordan High School (Renov) (Lease/Leaseback)
RFQ/SUB: Winchester High School (Renovation/Addition)
Interdisciplinary Science & Engineering Complex / ISEC
Roosevelt High School (Renovation)(Design/Build)
Paul L. Foster Campus for Business & Innovation
12th High School (East)
Bentonville West High School/Gymnasium
Severna Park High School - Gymnasium
UT Strong Hall Science Laboratory Facilities
Patricia R Guerrieri Academic Commons (Design/Build)
U of ND School of Medicine and Health Sciences Building
UTD Bioengineering and Sciences Building
Laramie High School
Allen Institute for Brain Science
Phillipsburg High School (PHILLIPSBURG SD)
Leander ISD High School #6
Agricultural Sciences Building New/Addition
39
CITY
Buffalo
Princeton
Long Beach
Winchester
Boston
Washington
Waco
Manassas
Centerton
Severna Park
Knoxville
Salisbury
Grand Forks
Richardson
Laramie
Seattle
Phillipsburg
Leander
Morgantown
STATE
NY
NJ
CA
MA
MA
DC
TX
VA
AR
MD
TN
MD
ND
TX
WY
WA
NJ
TX
WV
Started
2014:04
2014:01
2014:02
2014:07
2014:04
2014:06
2014:01
2014:05
2014:07
2014:06
2014:01
2014:07
2014:04
2014:01
2014:07
2014:07
2014:07
2014:05
2014:01
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
Thous $
251,300
155,000
135,600
129,923
115,000
104,000
100,000
97,907
94,000
93,999
92,000
90,000
90,000
86,450
85,800
84,400
80,490
79,000
76,898
Thous Sq Ft
625
0
0
30
180
0
286
379
370
354
268
220
320
223
300
271
330
347
240
U.S. Institutional – Educational Buildings
Top 10 States – 2013 vs. 2012. Based on Dollars.
Top 10 States
Jan.-July 2014
Ranked by Dollars
% ch from a year ago
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
40
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
Texas
+10%
New York
+44%
California
-23%
Illinois
+31%
Virginia
+20%
Massachusetts
-6%
Georgia
-6%
Pennsylvania
-11%
New Jersey
+101%
Ohio
+26%
U.S. Institutional – Healthcare Facilities
The recovery for healthcare facilities remains on hold.
2006
Peak
110 msf
2009
Trough
68 msf -38%
Based on Sq. Ft.
2013
2014 YTD
Clinics
+11%
-13%
Hospitals
-11%
-27%
• Hospital chains hard-hit in 2009
by tight credit conditions.
• Debate over healthcare reform
created near-term uncertainty.
• U.S. military Veterans Admin. projects
helped to ease some of the slowdown.
• Now – uncertainty over reduced
Medicare reimbursements,
Affordable Care Act implementation
More healthcare mergers.
• Sector still supported by –
Need to replace aging facilities
Growth of elderly population.
Move toward “hub-and-spoke”
system.
41
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Institutional – Healthcare Facilities
Large Projects from 2013 for comparison
42
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Institutional – Healthcare Facilities
Recent Large Projects – Breaking Ground in 2014
TITLE
STATE
CPMC Van Ness and Geary Campus Hospital & GCA
Kaiser Permanente Central Hospital Kearny Mesa CA
VCMC Replacement Hospital Wing Project DesignCA
Centegra Hospital & Medical Office Building
IL
Cook Children's South Tower Shell
TX
Good Shepherd Hospital (Renovation/Addition)
IL
Golisano Children's Hospital of Southwest Florida FL
Kapiolani Medical Center Expansion - Phase I
HI
Methodist Mansfield Hospital (Add/Renovs)
TX
Medical Research & Translation Building (Core & SNY
Children's Hospital (convert City Centre)
TX
UW Medical Center Expansion Phase II
WA
Scripps Clinic John R Anderson V Medical PavilionCA
WVU Ruby Memorial Hospital Expansion/Renovat WV
43
Started
2014:06
2014:03
2014:04
2014:05
2014:07
2014:05
2014:06
2014:04
2014:05
2014:04
2014:01
2014:04
2014:05
2014:02
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
Thous $
900,000
800,000
214,913
209,945
150,000
150,000
142,000
120,000
118,000
95,769
90,000
90,000
83,000
78,000
Thous
Sq Ft
740
566
232
375
314
230
292
200
98
225
0
0
175
0
U.S. Institutional – Healthcare Facilities
Top 10 States – 2013 vs. 2012. Based on Dollars.
Top 10 States
Jan.-July 2014
Ranked by Dollars
% ch from a year ago
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
44
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
California
Texas
Florida
New York
Illinois
Ohio
Washington
Pennsylvania
Indiana
Virginia
+78%
-2%
0%
-13%
+41%
-17%
+419%
-15%
-1%
+1%
U.S. Institutional – Public Buildings
Public Buildings experienced lengthy decline, now stabilizing.
2007
Peak
51 msf
2013
Trough
16 msf -69%
Based on Sq. Ft.
2013
2014 YTD
Detention Facilities
-36%
-55%
Armories/Military
-62%
-37%
Courthouses
-21%
+81%
Police & Fire Stations
-4%
0%
negligible
negligible
Post Offices
•
Received benefits of 2009 federal
stimulus act for courthouses,
federal buildings, land ports of entry.
• Now affected by reduced federal spending
for GSA projects, military-related
construction.
GSA new construction account gets
$506 million for 2014 up from $50 million 13.
45
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Institutional – Public Buildings
Recent Large Projects
TITLE
State
San Diego County Central Courthouse
CA
US Courthouse/Fed Bldg/Parking Ph 2(DeCA
RFP/SUB: Stockton Courthouse
CA
The County Courts Project Addn/Renovs (MO
Detention Center North Tower Renov (Ph NV
Waterbury State Office Complex
VT
46
Started
2014:05
2014:03
2014:05
2014:03
2014:03
2014:04
Thous $
395,500
317,000
200,000
105,000
88,000
80,000
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
Thous Sq Ft
704
600
306
150
0
0
U.S. Institutional – Amusement & Rec.
Amusement/Recreational has turned the corner, now heading up.
2007
Peak
73 msf
2012
Trough
33 msf -55%
Based on Sq. Ft.
2013
2014 YTD
Convention Centers
+32%
+45%
Sports Arenas
+8%
+161%
Theaters
+31%
+1%
Misc. Amuse. (Inc.casinos)
+6%
-7%
• This category is affected by both public and
private financial support.
• The year 2013 featured several large
amusement projects, including -$763 million Vikings stadium in Minneapolis MN
$305 million conv. ctr. expan. in San Antonio TX
$169 million Horseshoe Casino in Baltimore MD
• Casino projects gained momentum.
47
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Institutional – Amusement & Rec.
Recent Large Projects
TITLE
State
Started
MGM / AEG Arena
Jamul Tribe Hollywood Branded Casino
UIUC State Farm Center (Renovation/Addition)
Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
Avatar Land Attraction - Disney Animal Kingdom
UNO Community Arena (PPP)
NV
CA
IL
NY
FL
NE
2014:06
2014:07
2014:03
2014:03
2014:01
2014:01
48
Thous $
375,000
129,326
120,000
110,000
90,000
76,000
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
Thous Sq Ft
650
206
20
0
180
220
U.S. Institutional – Airport Terminals
Airport terminal work in 2013 down in sq. ft., but up in dollars.
Renovation work supporting dollar gains.
49
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Institutional – Airport Terminals
Recent Large Projects
50
Value
Sq. Ft.
$ Millions
Thous.
230.4
0
228.8
Start Date
City
State
Year: Mo
Bradley Int'l Terminal Renovation-Aprons Ph 2 Los Angeles
CA
2013:12
0
Delta Terminal 5 Renovation
Los Angeles
CA
2013:05
158.0
0
Charleston SC Airport Terminal (Redevel.)
Charleston
SC
2013:05
136.0
280
Hobby Airport International Concourse
Houston
TX
2013:10
105.2
23
SFIA Terminal 3 Checkpoint Project
San Francisco CA
2013:07
100.0
0
DFW Terminal A Renovations Ph 2
DFW Airport
TX
2013:04
90.0
225
Ft. Lauderdale Terminal 4 Gate Replacement
Ft. Lauderdale FL
2013:05
82.3
65
Bradley West Terminal 4 Connector
Los Angeles
CA
2014:02
75.0
0
DFW Terminal E Renovations Ph 2
DFW Airport
TX
2013:05
50.0
40
Greenville Spartanburg Airport (Expan.) Ph 2
Greer
SC
2013:01
40.7
121
Minot International Airport New Terminal Bldg. Minot
ND
2013:09
37.2
0
Logan Airport Terminals B-E Improvement
MA
2013:04
East Boston
Signature Flight Support Aviation Facility (Mineta Airport) 1401 AIRPORT BLVD San Jose CA 2014:06
CM/GC
Airport
Capital
LaGuardia
Airport 2014. Flushing
NY 2014:05
McGraw-LaGuardia
Hill Construction
Confidential.
AllInfrastructure
information presented @ McGraw
Hill Construction,
All rights reserved.
82,000
118,232
270
0
Institutional – Airport Terminals
Larger Airport Terminal Projects seem to be getting a boost internationally…
Al Maktoum International Airport (Expansion)(Dubai UAE)
Quito Airport Expansion - Phase 2
Mexico City New International Airport - Expansion
Kuwait International Airport Re-Development
Heathrow Airport Resilience Program
Terminal 3 Construction at Frankfurt Airport - Phase 1
Aerotropolis Airport Cluster Modernization
Porto Alegre International Airport
SLCDA Terminal Redevelopment Program
Newark Liberty International Airport Terminal A (EWR)
Changi Project Jewel Aviation -Retail -Entertainment -Garden
Tampa International Airport Gateway Center (MasterReport)
JKIA Int'l Aprt Expansion - Terminal 4 (Greenfield) & Runway
Lufthansa Technik Aviation Maintenance Building
Greater Sudbury Airport Aircraft Hangar
Extension of Yard Aircraft
Hangar 1 Renovation-Alteration Ph 1
Multi-Purpose Corporate Aviation Hangars PPP
Aircraft Maintenance Instructional Building
Hangar 1 Renovation-Alteration Ph 1 (Building 7087)
51
DUBAI
ARE
QUITO
ECU
MEXICO CITY
MEX
KUWAIT CITY
KWT
LONDON
GBR
FRANKFURT
DEU
BRASILIA
BRA
PORT ALEGRE
BRA
SALT LAKE CITY
USA
NEWARK
USA
SINGAPORE
SGP
TAMPA
USA
NAIROBI
KEN
AGUADILLA
PRI
GARSON
CAN
SAN SALVADOR
SLV
CHICOPEE
USA
WARWICK
USA
FORT INDIANTOWNUSA
CHICOPEE
USA
Dubai Airports
Quiport
Netherlands Airport Consultants (NACO)
Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA)
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (Headquarters)
Fraport AG
Inframerica Consortium (Joint Venture)
ANAC / National Civil Aviation Agency - Brazil
HOK/Hellmuth Obata & Kassabaum Inc
Pierce Goodwin Alexander & Linville (PGAL)
Safdie Architects
HOK / Hellmuth Obata + Kassabaum Inc
Pascall + Watson Architects
Lufthansa Technik
J L Richards & Associates Ltd
State Government of Bahia
Woods Peacock Engineering Consultants Inc
Louis Berger Group
Lobar Inc.
P & S Construction Inc
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Manufacturing Buildings
Plant construction had a mixed 2013 - sq. ft. down, dollars up. Upward trend for both
ahead - In 2014, manufacturing starts will increase by a slight 4% in square footage,
while dollar value will increase by 34%.
52
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Manufacturing Buildings
Large Projects breaking ground in 2013 for comparison
53
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Manufacturing Buildings
Recent Large Projects Starting in 2014
TITLE
State
Started
Chevron Phillips Cracker Ethylene Plant
Chevron Phillips Polyethylene Plant 2
Exxon Petrochemical Plant Expansion
Dow Chemical Ethylene Plant
Propane Dehydrogenation Facility
Methanol Unit Chemical Plant - Celanese Clear Lake Facility
Thunder Butte Petroleum (Expansion) Oil Refinery
RA4 Intel Office Building
Pine Bend Refinery (Upgrades)
CF Industries Nitrogen Plant Expansion ( Donaldsonville, LA)
Calumet Refinery (Expansion)
Voestalpine Direct Reduction/Iron Ore Processing Plant
Yokohama Tire Plant (Design/Build)
Normal Alpha Olefins Plant Expansion
Flint Assembly Paint Shop
Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Lab/Manuf Building (DESIGN BUILD)
Dow Texas Innovation R & D Center
Toyo Tire & Rubber Mfg Plant (Expansion) Pha IV Design/Build
Natural Gas Processing Facility (Refinery) Design/Build
Great Lakes Cheese Company Packaging Plant (Design/Build)
3M Research and Development Lab (Bldg 280)
RIO Hub - Crude Oil and Frac Sand Terminal (Phase 1)
Colgate-Palmolive Research & Office Bldgs & Parking Garage
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
ND
OR
MN
LA
MT
TX
MS
TX
MI
TX
TX
GA
LA
TN
MN
NM
NJ
2014:04
2014:06
2014:07
2014:07
2014:01
2014:03
2014:01
2014:07
2014:03
2014:06
2014:06
2014:07
2014:04
2014:07
2014:04
2014:02
2014:04
2014:01
2014:04
2014:04
2014:02
2014:03
2014:05
54
54
Thous $
3,000,000
3,000,000
3,000,000
1,700,000
1,200,000
800,000
450,000
450,000
400,000
396,000
375,000
370,000
290,000
200,000
200,000
142,800
111,530
100,000
100,000
100,000
85,000
80,000
79,500
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
Thous Sq Ft
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
500
0
0
0
480
931
0
596
152
580
1,023
0
300
412
0
89
U.S. Public Works – Highways and Bridges
Highways and Bridges were lifted by large projects in 2013…
Pulling back in 2014 before moving forward again in 2015 …
•
Substantial lift in 2013 came from large
projects, including a portion of the $3 billion
Tappan Zee Bridge project across the
Hudson River in New York. (Oct. 2013 start).
•
Fiscal 2014 appropriations – federal highway
funding increased slightly (up 1%) as part of
January budget agreement.
•
MAP-21 (Moving Ahead for Progress in the
21st Century) called for transportation funding
to receive slight increases through 2014.
Contains mechanisms to “stretch” funding.
MAP-21 was scheduled to expire on Sept. 30.
55
•
A $10.8 billion “patch” to Highway Trust Fund
passed by Congress at end of July. Legislation
provides funding support for Highway Trust Fund
through May 2015, also extends current
transportation bill authorization through May 2015.
•
Successor bill to MAP-21 outlined by Senate.
Senate committee. Passage this year unlikely.
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Public Works – Highways and Bridges
2013 Large Projects for comparison
Value
Start Date
$ Millions
56
City
State
Year: Mo
2,841.6
Tappan Zee Bridge Replacement - structural part
Tarrytown
NY
2013:10
1,614.4
Ohio River Bridges
Louisville
KY-IN
2013:06
1,500.0
Goethals Bridge Replacement
Staten Isl/Elizabeth
NY-NJ
2013:12
1,350.0
Downtown Tunnel/Midtown Tunnel/MLK Expansion Norfolk
VA
2013:01
1,040.0
TX/DOT: SH 99 Grand Parkway Expansion
TX
2013:06
TX
2013:12
Houston
990.0
IH 35W Reconstruction
798.0
Dallas Horseshoe Project
Dallas
TX
2013:08
743.3
Raising Bayonne Bridge Roadway
Bayonne
NJ
2013:08
488.0
CA/DOT Doyle Drive Dist 4 Phase 2
San Francisco
CA
2013:03
292.2
MA/DOT: Whittier Bridge/I-95 Improvement
Newburyport
MA
2013:07
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Public Works – Bridges
Large Projects breaking ground in 2014
TITLE
State
Started
Gerald Desmond Bridge Replacement (Design/Build)
OH/DOT Bridge Replacement
I90 Bridge over Hudson River & I90/I787 Interchange Bridge
PA/DOT I-95N: Columbia-Ann St N
CT/DOT: I 95 Bridge Replacement
Roadway and Bridge Reconstruction
MI/DOT I-96 Improvement (Call 601)
New HOV Ramp (Verrazano Narrows Bridge) - (RE-BID)
NC/DOT Greensboro Western Loop Paving - Drainage (Call#005)
LAX Second Level Roadway Repair/NFCTA/WWS/CWTI
NC/DOT NC-12 Grading - Drainage -Structure (Call#001)
THA-4144 Fox River Bridge Reconstruction Widening I90 RE-BID
CA
OH
NY
PA
CT
PA
MI
NY
NC
CA
NC
IL
2014:03
2014:01
2014:05
2014:02
2014:02
2014:05
2014:02
2014:02
2014:01
2014:04
2014:01
2014:07
57
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
Thous $
584,550
218,389
146,000
124,940
103,818
94,900
86,589
84,300
80,000
79,995
79,656
75,413
U.S. Public Works – Highways and Bridges
Top 10 States – 2013 vs. 2012. Based on Dollars.
Top 10 States
Jan.-July 2014
Ranked by Dollars
% ch from a year ago
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
58
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
Texas
California
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Florida
New York
North Carolina
Virginia
New Jersey
-10%
-13%
+17%
+45%
-2%
+5%
-18%
+22%
-54%
-17%
U.S. Public Works – Environmental Public Works
Environmental public works generally declining, although activity picked up in 2013.
• Projects generally take longer to reach
construction start stage compared to
transportation work.
• Construction often the result
of EPA mandates to local governments.
• Fiscal 2014 federal budget offered support to
water resources, steady funding for sewers and
water.
• Water Resources Reform and Development Act
($12.3 billion over ten years) recently passed by
Congress.
59
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Public Works – Environmental Public Works
Recent Large Water Projects
TITLE
CITY
State
Started
Brackish Groundwater Desalination Program
Davis Woodland Regional Water Supply (Design/Build)
Integrated Pipeline (Section 15-1)
Mary Rhodes Pipeline Phase 2 - Pipeline Sections A, B, & C
Baker Water Treatment Plant
San Antonio
Woodland
Corsicana
Corpus Christi
Lake Forest
TX
CA
TX
TX
CA
2014:06
2014:04
2014:05
2014:04
2014:02
Thous $
107,500
100,000
92,900
84,121
77,521
Recent Large Sewer Projects
TITLE
CITY
State
Started
Thous $
Owens Lake Dust Mitigation Phase 7A
Kaneohe-Kailua Sewer Tunnel Project
Virginia Initiative Plant Nutrient Reduction - Contract B
Southport Advanced WWT Capacity (Expansion)
Waste Water Treatment Plant (Expansion)
Fy13 Waste Water Treatment Plant (Design/Build)
Hartford WPCF - IPS - Headworks - Odor Control (Alts)
Lone Pine
Honolulu
Norfolk
Indianapolis
Visalia
Seattle
Hartford
CA
HI
VA
IN
CA
WA
CT
2014:01
2014:01
2014:06
2014:04
2014:05
2014:04
2014:04
208,512
173,144
107,959
100,000
92,318
77,477
76,138
60
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U.S. Public Works – “Other” Public Works
Diverse set of project types can be volatile. Slipped back in 2013 after strong 2012.
• Includes site work, rail-related work, pipelines,
airport runways, outdoor sports stadiums.
• Pipelines strengthened though 2010, retreated
in 2011, made partial rebound in 2012 with
segment of Keystone oil pipeline. Major part of
Keystone oil pipeline did not start in 2013.
In 2013, new pipeline work down by 50%.
• Federal mass transit account has fared relatively
well, with slight increase for fiscal 2014.
• In 2012 -2013 – numerous rail projects –
- $877 mil. RTD Eagle commuter rail in Denver CO
- $595 mil. SVRT South Bay Extension in San Jose CA
-$326 mil. Metro Gold Line in Pasadena CA
• High-speed rail plans? Received zero federal funding
for fiscal 2012, but still has support of Obama Admin.
California high-speed rail project in planning.
61
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U.S. Electric Utilities
New electric utility starts reached a record high in 2012. Downturn now underway.
62
•
Energy Bills of 2005-2007 – provided tax incentives
for electric utilities, transmission lines, etc.
•
Stimulus act provided boost – incentives for alternative
sources of electricity generation.
•
Capacity utilization was at 87% for 2007;
utilization retreated to 79% in 2013,
reflecting surge of new plants.
•
Gas-fired plants strong in 2012, down 89% in 2013.
•
Vogtle and Summer nuclear plants (at $8.5 billion each)
started in 2012. Prospects for nuclear plants being reevaluated, however.
•
Alternative energy power plants very strong in 20102011, but now slipping – 2012 down 33%,
2013 down 35%.
•
Power lines also strong – 2010 up 52% and 2011
up 8%. But, 2012 slipped 5%, and 2013 down 58%.
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Electric Utilities
2013 Large Projects for comparison
63
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.
U.S. Electric Utilities
Large Projects starts in 2014 to date
TITLE
State
Started
Thous $
Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) Fractionator Facility
Port Everglades Next Generation Energy Center
Moxie Liberty Natural Gas-Fired Power Plant (Design/Build)
Moapa Solar Generation Facility (Design/Build)
Natural Gas Generation Plant
Sys Facilities for the East Side Access Project (Package 1)
El Cabo Wind Power Farm
Carty Generating Station - 440 Megawatts
Oakfield Wind Energy Project
Wind Farm - Thunder Spirit
Buckeye Wind Farm
Osage County Wind Farm Design/Build
ML&P Power Plant 2A Expansion Project (Design/Build)
Pleasant Valley Wind Farm
43 Wind Turbines - Phase 2
Solar Generating Facility (Adams East)
Perryman #6 - Electrical Generator Expansion
Lonesome Creek Station Power Phase II
64 -MW Gas Fired Power Plant (Design/Build)
LNG Export Facility
Charles D Lamb Energy Center (Natural Gas Power Plant)
64
64
McGraw
Construction Confidential.
All informationC1a
presented
McGraw
Hill Construction, 2014.
CT/DOT
RailHill
Electrification
Catenary
&@
C2
(Improvement)
TX
2014:07
FL
2014:03
PA
2014:01
NV
2014:04
IA
2014:06
NY
2014:07
NM
2014:02
OR
2014:03
ME
2014:03
ND
2014:04
KS
2014:05
OK
2014:06
AK
2014:05
MN
2014:05
NE
2014:02
CA
2014:04
MD
2014:07
ND
2014:06
LA
2014:05
TX
2014:06
OK
2014:02
All
rights reserved.
CT
2014:04
1,500,000
1,180,000
800,000
750,000
700,000
500,000
450,000
364,000
350,000
350,000
335,000
225,000
200,125
176,000
145,000
136,000
120,000
115,000
112,000
91,000
85,000
77,829
U.S. Total Construction Starts for 2014-2015
Billions of Dollars
Total Construction
Single Family Housing
Multifamily Housing
Commercial Bldgs.
Institutional Bldgs.
Manufacturing Bldgs.
Public Works
Electric Utilities
65
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
558.2
426.3
435.3
443.5
489.2
532.8
550.7
606.0
-13%
-24%
+2%
+2%
+10%
+9%
+3%
+10%
122.4
94.3
100.0
97.3
125.8
159.1
166.6
190.5
-39%
-23%
+6%
-3%
+29%
+26%
+5%
+14%
38.1
17.9
22.1
29.7
40.5
50.4
58.6
64.2
-37%
-53%
+23%
+34%
+37%
+24%
+16%
+10%
81.4
47.3
42.2
48.3
54.8
66.5
76.3
88.1
-19%
-42%
-11%
+14%
+14%
+21%
+15%
+15%
130.6
112.3
112.2
100.3
91.3
91.1
94.9
104.3
+11%
-14%
-0-
-11%
-9%
-0-
+4%
+10%
31.0
9.7
9.5
17.3
13.0
18.4
24.8
23.2
+50%
-69%
-2%
+82%
-25%
+42%
+34%
-7%
121.2
123.6
120.7
106.7
111.6
124.1
111.1
118.6
-0-
+2%
-2%
-12%
+5%
+11%
-10%
+7%
33.5
21.1
28.7
44.0
52.2
23.1
18.4
17.2
+77%
-37%
+36%
+53%
+19%
-56%
-20%
-7%
McGraw Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented @ McGraw Hill Construction, 2014. All rights reserved.