09h00-13h30
AN INTER-INSTITUTIONAL
EU PROJECT

Paul Rübig is a Member of the European Parliament for the
Austrian People's Party. After having completed a degree in business administration, marketing and production engineering and managing an Austrian blacksmith company, he became a
Member of the European Parliament on 25 January 1996, and has been re-elected ever since. Paul Rübig is member of the Budget
(BUDG) committee, member and vice-coordinator of the Industry, Research and Energy (ITRE) committee and chairman of the Science and Technology Options Assessment (STOA) panel. Paul
Rübig was elected MEP of the Year twice for his commitment in the field of research and innovation.
Twitter, Paul Rübig: @PaulRuebig
The ESPAS report states that a technological revolution based on new industrial, bio-scientific, communication and digital processes is likely to thoroughly transform societies in the next 15 years, due to the ever-accelerating speed of transformative technologies. The report discusses how we might leverage the power to jump start a third industrial revolution in the EU, by aligning the forces of the new technological revolution. However, it also warns that some consequences of these developments, such as growing inequalities and endangered individual privacy, could trigger ungovernable social reactions, including ethical, religious or social backlashes.
Here as elsewhere, scenarios are thinkable, but we must be wary of predictions. Who foresaw the Internet? Still, we can try to imagine the daily routine of scientists in 2030: they may well be able to cross-examine all recorded data on a given subject with one action; to collaborate with millions of other scientists in real time; and to harness the intelligence of "artificial" colleagues that might provide crucial input to advances in astrophysics, medicine or sociology. Science may remain very similar to today in its fundamental goals, still striving to provide new answers to the same questions; but in its scope and methods, the present rapid change may well further accelerate.
One reason for this change in scope may be that science might start to transform its authors, us humans. Driven by the dream of a longer, more comfortable and healthier life, a synthesis between the real and the cyber world may further accelerate, finally fusing machine and human

into one transhuman being. Alternatively, many famous technological trendsetters, including
Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates expect both the emergence of artificial intelligence life and leaps in robotics in the coming decades.
But will societies at large and Europe as a community of values be able to shape such developments and prevent possible excesses? Will such a scientific renaissance lead to a revitalised and more humane society? Or will the negative consequences of these advances prevail, in an age when anyone might print weapons of mass destruction? Will our DNA code, indispensable for those wishing to cure diseases, become accessible or even modifiable for authoritarian regimes? In short, the Faustian question whether science will finally save or doom humanity will remain; though it may just continue to transform it, ever more irreversibly.
Taking part in the armchair discussion:
Chair: Mady Delvaux-Stehres is a Member of the European Parliament for the Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party, vice-chair of the Committee on legal affairs and i.a. Rapporteur of the working group of the legal affairs committee on robotics and artificial intelligence. After having studied classics at the Sorbonne and teaching in high school, in 1989 she was appointed as State Secretary for Health, Social Security, Youth and Sport of the Government of
Luxembourg. From 1994 until 1999, she was Minister for Communications, Transport and Social
Security. From 2004 to 2013, Ms. Delvaux-Stehres was Minister of National Education.
Twitter, Mady Delvaux-Stehres: @mady_delvaux
Jean-Jacques Cassiman is emeritus Professor of Human Genetics at KU Leuven, where he was, among other positions, head of the Centre for Human Genetics.
As an international authority in the field of human genetics and DNA research,
Prof. Cassiman was secretary-general and president of the European Society of
Human Genetics and vice-president of the Institute for Science and
Technological aspects of the Flemish Parliament. In 1998 Professor Cassiman proved through DNA testing that Karl Wilhelm Naundorff was not a descendant of the Bourbons and certainly not Louis XVII. In 2004 he proved that the heart that had been kept in Paris belonged to Louis XVII. Prof. Cassiman graduated as MD at the Catholic University of Leuven.
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Dr. Geneviève Ferone Creuzet is co-founder of Casabee, a studies office on sustainable territories and cities, and Vice President of both the carbon transition thank-tank Shift Project and the sustainable agriculture NGO Agrisud.
A Doctor of International Economic Law at the Sorbonne and graduate of the
Ecole Supérieures de Commerce et d’Administration des Entreprises, she worked for international organizations (IEA, OECD, UN) and economic intelligence consultancies, and founded ARESE, the first French social and environmental rating agency for listed companies. From 2006 to 2013 she was in leading managing positions responsible for sustainable development. Dr. Ferone Creuzet is author of four publications on foresight and on sustainability issues. Together with the eminent neuroscientist Jean-Didier Vincent, she wrote in 2011 "Bienvenue en Transhumanie".
Twitter, Geneviève Ferone Creuzet: @GFeroneC
Dr. Sabine Hauert is a Swarm Engineer at the University of Bristol and Bristol
Robotics Laboratory, where she designs swarms of nanobots for biomedical applications. Swarm strategies are either inspired from nature or are automatically designed using machine learning and crowdsourcing
(http://nanodoc.org). Sabine has designed swarms of nanoparticles for cancer treatment at MIT and deployed large aerial swarms for use as communication relays at EPFL. Her work has been featured in mainstream media including The
Economist, CNN, and New Scientist. Passionate about science communication, Sabine is the Cofounder and President of Robohub (http://robohub.org), a non-profit dedicated to connecting the robotics community to the public.
Twitter, Sabine Hauert: @sabinehauert
Dr. Ana Noronha is the executive director at Ciência Viva, which is a
Portuguese National Agency to promote public awareness of science and technology and an association of public institutions and research laboratories.
Dr. Noronha belongs to the Advisory Committee on Education of the
European Space Agency and participates in European projects in the area of the science and society dialogue. In particular, she coordinates the FP7 project
NERRI – Neuro Enhancement Responsible Research and Innovation, which works to establish a dialogue between potential users, “designers”
(researchers, engineers, developers) and legislators of Neuro-Enhancement technologies, before products start to hit the marketplace. Dr. Noronha both obtained her PhD in Physics (Non-Linear
Dynamics) and taught at the Instituto Superior Técnico in Lisbon.
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Global trends in regard to climate change, migration and gender equality, to name but three, will affect the Europe of the future. But we need not be passive observers in these processes. We still may be able to actively shape the society of 2030, according to our values and priorities. To do so, we need to build the capacity to respond to complex challenges at national, European and global levels. And we also need robust and reliable analysis of present trends - the focus of this event.
What trends will have the greatest impact on future global society? Will the empowerment of individuals continue to grow? Will we see a more democratic, more participatory society, with renewed commitment to the values of equality, freedom and rule of law? Will women's rights and status improve? Or will recent worrying phenomena accelerate, such as growing inequalities, greater exclusion, more social conflict, and less consensus on the principles that underpin modern democracies? How can we head off unwanted trends?
Was President Obama correct when he stated that this is the first generation to feel the effects of climate change, and the last that can do anything about it? What can still be done?
In a globalised, competitive world, and with an ageing population, can Europe maintain its present level of public services - in health, education and welfare? Will the Digital Society raise our standard of living? What can we expect from Big Data?
In the light of the present refugee crisis, what principles should guide a long-term European strategy on migration, taking into account demographic and economic factors?
As the ESPAS Global Report points out, we face many uncertainties. How can political institutions at all levels, including the EU, adapt to cope with the new challenges? Astute adaptation is a key to successfully negotiating the future.
Taking part in the armchair discussion:
Chair: Markku Markkula was elected President of the Committee of the
Regions earlier this year. He has been the rapporteur on subjects such as
“Digital Agenda for Europe”, “Horizon 2020”, and “Closing the innovation divide". He has also been a member of several High Level Expert Groups, such as the EU Smart Specialisation Mirror Group. He is a Member of the
Board of the Helsinki Regional Council and Chairman of the Espoo City
Planning Board. Mr Markkula works as an Advisor to the Presidents at Aalto
University in Finland with a focus on European Union research, innovation
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and education policy affairs. He was a member of the Finnish Parliament from 1995 to 2003, and served inter alia on its Committee for the Future. He has published widely on subjects such as lifelong learning, knowledge dissemination, and knowledge management. His latest book, coedited by Pia Lappalainen and Hank Kune, is Orchestrating Regional Innovation Ecosystems.
Twitter, Markku Markkula: @CoR_President
Hans Bruyninckx is the Executive Director of the European Environment
Agency, since 2013. He was formerly head of the HIVA Research Institute, associated with the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium. Over the last 20 years, he has conducted research in more than a dozen countries, in areas including environmental politics, climate change, and sustainable development. He has taught on global environmental politics and global environmental governance in relation to the European Union (EU), publishing extensively on EU environmental policies and its role as an actor in global environmental governance. Throughout his career Dr Bruyninckx has worked with governmental agencies, civil society and businesses, often in an advisory role.
Twitter, European Environment Agency: @EUEnvironment
Cecile Wendling is head of R&D foresight at AXA, and an associated researcher at Centre de sociologie des organisations (CNRS-SCIENCES PO
PARIS). She previously worked at FUTURIBLES, a think tank conducting foresight studies in Paris. She has conducted many foresight projects, including on health risks of the future, for the French agency in charge of health monitoring (INVS); environmental risks emerging from ecological transition, for the French agency in charge of environmental risks (ANSES); emerging risks, for AXA; and cybersecurity, for a group of 10 leading French companies. She lectures on risk management and crisis management, among other topics. Her areas of special expertise include Foresight studies, Scenario building, Strategy, Social sciences, Public policy,
Defence, Security, Nuclear safety and Cybersecurity.
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Svitlana Kobzar is the head of the Department of International Affairs and the Academic Director of the European Peace and Security Studies at
Vesalius College of the Free University of Brussels. Dr Kobzar is also a research fellow at RAND, a non-profit research organization. Her research focuses on EU foreign and security policy, EU-Ukraine relations, Ukraine's identity and foreign policy, state-building and security sector reforms, influence of international organizations on governance in the post-Soviet region. At RAND, Kobzar researched issues linked to migration and border security and has conducted research for a range of organizations, including the European Commission, the
Council, the Parliament, the World Bank, the UK Ministry of Justice, the UK Home Office as well as Frontex. Dr Kobzar received her Ph.D. in international relations and her MPhil in contemporary European studies from the University of Cambridge.
Twitter, Svitlana Kobzar: @skobzar
Franck Debié works with the Secretary General of the European Parliament, leading the 'European Parliament 2025' team on Long Term Trends. Dr
Debié has been involved in the European System for Policy Analysis and
Strategy from the start and chaired the ESPAS working group on the future of society. From 2008, he was the policy director of the European Ideas
Network – a grouping of think tanks associated with the European Peoples
Party. He was the first general director of one of these, the Fondation pour l'Innnovation politique (2004-2008). He was the first policy planning director of the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (now called 'Les Républicains') under former Prime Minister Alain
Juppé. Dr. Debié holds a PhD. from Paris Sorbonne and has written books on Human
Geography, the Middle East Peace Process and the Lebanese Reconstruction. He is an associated professor at the Ecole Normale Supérieure (Paris).
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The 2014 ESPAS report analyses long-term trends, such as the geopolitical shift from West to
East - including shifting hegemonic roles - and the changing nature of states and governments as such, affected by ever more complex multipolarity at global scale and redefined relations between individuals and states at the local level. It also asks in how far the EU and its Member
States are ready or at least could prepare for such fundamental changes.
However, the writers were acutely aware that few long-term trends are as fragile, twisted and chaotic as continuities in international relations. With hindsight, global developments always makes sense, but who can say at present which challenger - if any - will become the next superpower, or even whether that concept will still make sense as such in fifteen years' time, in a conceivably multipolar, post-heroic and post-Westphalian world.
Equally, it takes courage to predict future conflicts. For example, in recent years most observers expected another Afghanistan, for instance in Yemen and Libya, only to be caught off-guard by what seemed anachronistic inter-state conflicts in Ukraine and the South China Sea, and by an upheaval somewhat resembling the 30 years' war in the Arab world.
Such developments pose new questions for the EU. How could the very rules of international relations evolve, the rules that have guided states in the last centuries, like deterrence, alliances and the balance of power? More specifically, can the EU balance its values with the need to ensure stability in its neighbourhood and beyond? Will China become the next hegemon, and if so, what sort of world power will it be? How will the transatlantic partnership and the west more broadly cope with these challenges?
Taking part in the armchair discussion:
Chair: Maciej Popowski is a senior Polish diplomat at the European External
Action Service and former EEAS Deputy Secretary General. Following an education in German and Dutch language and literature and teaching assignments at the philological faculty at the University of Wroclaw, he entered the Polish diplomatic service in 1991. In 2001 he became Director of the Department of the European Union and in 2003 the Representative of
Poland to the Political and Security Committee and Deputy Head of Mission to the European Union. In 2008 he became Director at DG Development and from 2009 to 2010 he was Head of Cabinet of the President of the European Parliament Jerzy
Buzek. Maciej Popowski recently published a book about Brussels called Alfabet brukselski
(Brussels alphabet). He speaks English, German, Dutch, French and Russian.
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Robert Cooper is a Senior Fellow of the Dahrendorf Forum and is working with the OSCE Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security. He joined the Foreign Office in 1970 serving inter alia in Japan and Germany, and as Head of Policy Planning. From 2002 he worked for the EU High
Representative, Javier Solana and then Catherine Ashton. Following his retirement in 2012 he was a Special adviser on Burma/Myanmar. His book of essays: “The Breaking of Nations”, (Atlantic Press 2003) won the Orwell Prize for political writing.
Jonathan Holslag works on international politics at the Free University of
Brussels. His work focuses on international political economy, regional security in Asia, and the relations between Europe and Asia. Dr. Holslag has written five books that have been translated in seven different languages, over 50 academic papers in prominent journals, and has contributed to many study projects organized by European and international institutions. Besides academic and policy related work, Jonathan regularly comments on current affairs in news media like the Financial Times, the Guardian, South China Morning Post,
European Voice, the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, the Harvard International Review and EU
Observer. Jonathan is Special Advisor to First-Vice President Frans Timmermans.
Twitter, Jonathan Holslag: @JonathanHolslag
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer is a senior transatlantic fellow and serves as the director of the Paris office of The German Marshall Fund of the United States
(GMF), where she leads two major programs on transatlantic security and the future of U.S. global leadership. An accomplished expert on U.S. foreign policy, transatlantic relations and international security, Dr. de Hoop Scheffer served as special advisor for U.S. foreign policy and transatlantic relations at the Policy
Planning of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and as associate professor at
Sciences Po Paris. She is co-director of the Paris-based journal Politique Américaine, author of the book Hamlet en Irak (CNRS éditions, 2007) and her articles and essays have appeared in a number of publications and major international newspapers.
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• Ann Mettler, Head, European Political Strategy Centre (EPSC) and Chair, European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
• Geneviève Tuts, Director, Inter-institutional Relations, Council of the EU
• Klaus Welle, Secretary-General, European Parliament
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