Assessment of the Gardiner East
Tear Down
Microscopic Modelling Results (Base Case vs. Remove)
Final Presentation
May 6th, 2015
Baher Abdulhai, Ph.D.
Matt Roorda, Ph.D.
Eric Miller, Ph.D.
Executive Summary (1/2)
 Modelling traffic impact of removing the
Gardiner between Jarvis and DVP
 Based on latest 2011/2012 demand data, traffic
measurements and modelling approaches
 Regional level modelling to capture demand
 Study area detailed microsimulation modelling
to capture travel times
 Three scenarios:
• Base case / existing (2011/2012)
• Remove option 1: traffic oriented boulevard
• Remove option 2: pedestrian oriented boulevard
Executive Summary (2/2)
 Key observations (base case vs. remove):
– 7500 vehicles in the morning rush hour use the GE in
the section to be removed
– Insignificant change in demand from before to after
– Performance of the boulevard depends on its design
(traffic vs. pedestrian oriented)
– Travel times between the Humber area and the DVP
at Dundas increase by up to 10 min (50%)
– Extra delay cost of ~$37M/year
– DVP southbound traffic most affected near Richmond
(1600 vehicle blocked outside the study area
compared to 400 in the base case)
Overall Modelling Approach
Base Case
Model
Parameters
Input Data
….
Demand Data
……
Microsimulation
Model
Outputs
Observed
Data
Validation
Verification
Calibration
Demand Calibration
Tearing Down
Gardiner Exp
4
Demand Analysis
Demand Modelling Methods
Demand and traffic data
GTHA Demand Models
(trucks and cars)
Regional trip matrices
Study Area Demand Models
(trucks and cars)
Gateway-to-gateway trip matrices
Microscopic Freeway
Simulation in Paramics
6
Key Features of Models
 For
cars, GTAModel4 simulates
route choice,
 mode choice,
 time of day choice,
 non-work non-school location choice

 Simplified

truck model simulates
Truck generation, distribution, route choice
 Gardiner
teardown scenario will reflect
demand sensitivity on these elements of
demand.
7
Demand Data Sources










Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS)- 2011/2012
GTA Model Version 4
2001 MTO Commercial Vehicle Survey (CVS)
2007 Region of Peel commercial travel survey
2011 Cordon counts
Employment data by industry from 2001
Employment data (total) from 2011
Land use classifications
Toronto Area EMME network
Toronto Downtown EMME network
8
GTA Regional Demand Model
9
Calibration – cordon count boundaries
10
Downtown model is “cut out”
from the GTA regional model
11
Downtown / Waterfront Model
12
Downtown demand is adjusted to reflect detailed count data
AM Peak Hour – Adjustment Count Locations
Note: Adjustment counts not shown on this map were also applied at the
Gardiner Expressway EB and WB at Park Lawn Rd.
Legend
2-way count location
1-way count location
2011 AM Pk Hr Total Vehicle
Flows after Adjustments (Base)
14
2011 AM Pk Hr Inbound Trips
Vehicle Type
Cars
Light trucks
Medium trucks
Heavy Trucks
Base
27,925
1,845
720
320
Removal
27,625
1,845
720
320
Very minor
reduction
in inbound
car trips
15
2011 AM Pk Hr Outbound Trips
Vehicle Type
Cars
Light trucks
Medium trucks
Heavy Trucks
Base
9,915
1,290
490
245
Removal
9,900
1,290
490
245
No change
in outbound
trips
16
2011 AM Pk Hr Through Trips
Vehicle Type
Cars
Light trucks
Medium trucks
Heavy Trucks
Base
9,925
665
215
130
Removal
9,600
640
210
125
Very minor
reduction
in through
trips
17
2011 AM Pk Hr Internal Trips
Vehicle Type
Cars
Light trucks
Medium trucks
Heavy Trucks
Base
5,250
600
345
100
Removal
5,500
600
345
100
Very minor
increase
in internal
car trips
18
2011 AM PK HR Mode Shares –
City of Toronto to the Downtown
Core (PD1)
Base Case
Gardiner Removed
0%
1%
1%
1%
Legend
24%
24%
0%
69%
0% 1%
0%
0%
5%
70%
0%
4%
Auto
Carpool
Passenger
Schoolbus
Walk Access Transit
Drive Access Transit
Walk
Bike
Almost a negligible change in mode shares
19
Microsimulation
Micro-simulation Study Area
21
Base Case
22
Calibrated Traffic Flows (EB)
Spadina / YorkBay-Yonge
3,227
Eastbound
@ Dufferin
5,133
Jarvis/Sherbourne
808
1,906
1,098
Lake Shore & DVP
23
Calibrated Traffic Flows (EB)
Spadina / YorkBay-Yonge
3,227
Eastbound
@ Dufferin
5,133
Jarvis/Sherbourne
808
3,103
2,971
Lake Shore & DVP
1,197
Lake Shore
at Rees
360
Bay
316
Jarvis
24
Calibrated Traffic Flows (WB)
Spadina/
Yonge-Bay-York
2,763
To Dufferin
1,931
1,931
Jarvis/Sherbourne
669
3,818
Richmond
2,094
4,487
2,419
DVP
4,513
Lake Shore
2,944
Lake Shore
876
25
Calibrated Traffic Flows (WB)
Spadina/
Yonge-Bay-York
2,763
To Dufferin
5,709
5,709
Jarvis/Sherbourne
669
Richmond
2,094
4,487
5,235
2,419
DVP
4,513
Lake Shore
2,944
Lake Shore
876
Bay/Spadina
2361
Jarvis
1417
26
7:31:00
7:33:00
7:35:00
7:37:00
7:39:00
7:41:00
7:43:00
7:45:00
7:47:00
7:49:00
7:51:00
7:53:00
7:55:00
7:57:00
7:59:00
8:01:00
8:03:00
8:05:00
8:07:00
8:09:00
8:11:00
8:13:00
8:15:00
8:17:00
8:19:00
8:21:00
8:23:00
8:25:00
8:27:00
8:29:00
8:31:00
8:33:00
8:35:00
8:37:00
8:39:00
8:41:00
8:43:00
8:45:00
8:47:00
8:49:00
8:51:00
8:53:00
8:55:00
8:57:00
8:59:00
Number of Vehicles in Simulation
No of Vehicles in Simulation
14000
12000
50
10000
40
8000
Warm Up
Average Speed
29 kph
30
6000
4000
20
2000
10
0
Average S peed (vph)
Network Wide Measures (Base Case)
Speed
60
0
Simulation Hour (30 min Warm Up + 1 hr AM Peak)
Average Travel Time
10.5 min
27
Remove Scenario
28
Design Assumptions
 Add bike lanes along Richmond, Adelaide, Simcoe
 Remove the six-lane Gardiner Expressway East: 2.4 km
elevated segment from approximately lower Jarvis to
Logan Avenue
 Add connection from Lake Shore to DVP
 Eight-lane Lake Shore Boulevard, with dedicated turning
lanes
 Remove Options
– Option 1: Cycle Length 110 sec, Speed limit 70 kph, pedestrians
cross in 2 stages (Traffic Oriented)
– Option 2: Cycle Length 100 sec, Speed limit 60 kph, pedestrians
cross in 1 stage (Pedestrian Oriented)
– Offset Coordination (Green Wave)
29
DVP /Lake Shore Connection
Current DVP
Gardiner ramps
Base Case
Removal
30
Gardiner/Lake Shore Connection
31
New Intersections:
1. Lake Shore & Cherry
Gardiner
Base Case
Removal
32
New Intersections:
2. Lake Shore & Parliament
Base Case
Removal
33
New Intersections:
3. Lake Shore & Sherbourne
Base Case
Removal
34
New Intersections:
4. Lake Shore & Jarvis
Base Case
Removal
35
Bike Lanes: Adelaide & Richmond
36
Results: Base Case vs. Removal
37
minObs
maxObs
Base Case
Remove Option 2
Lake Shore_Remove Option 1
Lake Shore_Remove Option 2
Remove Option 1
38
Eastbound Gardiner after DVP
NORTH off ramp
Eastbound Gardiner East of CHERRY
Eastbound Gardiner East of
PARLIAMENT
Eastbound Gardiner East of
SHERBOURNE - before on ramp
Eastbound Gardiner at LOWER
JARVIS
Eastbound Gardiner East of YONGE before Bay on ramp
Eastbound Gardiner at BAY -after
Lake Shore off ramp
Eastbound Gardiner at Simcoe - after
YORK off ramp
Eastbound Gardiner East of SPADINA
Eastbound Gardiner at BATHURST after Spadina off ramp
Eastbound Gardiner at BATHURST before Spadina off ramp
Eastbound Gardiner at STRACHAN
Eastbound Gardiner West of
STRACHAN
Eastbound Gardiner East of
DUFFERIN
Eastbound Gardiner East of DUNN before Lake Shore on ramp
Eastbound Gardiner West of
JAMESON - after off ramp
Eastbound Gardiner at DOWLING
Eastbound Gardiner East of
PARKSIDE
Eastbound Gardiner East of
COLBORNE LODGE
Eastbound Gardiner at ELLIS
Observed vs. Simulated Flows
Gardiner EB
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
7:31:00
7:33:00
7:35:00
7:37:00
7:39:00
7:41:00
7:43:00
7:45:00
7:47:00
7:49:00
7:51:00
7:53:00
7:55:00
7:57:00
7:59:00
8:01:00
8:03:00
8:05:00
8:07:00
8:09:00
8:11:00
8:13:00
8:15:00
8:17:00
8:19:00
8:21:00
8:23:00
8:25:00
8:27:00
8:29:00
8:31:00
8:33:00
8:35:00
8:37:00
8:39:00
8:41:00
8:43:00
8:45:00
8:47:00
8:49:00
8:51:00
8:53:00
8:55:00
8:57:00
8:59:00
Number of Vehicles in Simulation
No of Vehicles in Simulation
8000
No. of Vehicles in Remove Option 1
Average Speed
29 kph (BC) vs 25.5 kph (Remove)
Speed Remove Option 1
16000
14000
50
12000
10000
40
Warm Up
30
6000
400 Blocked Vehicles
2000
0
20
4000
10
Average S peed (vph)
Network Wide Measures: Base Case vs.
Remove Option 1
Speed
60
0
Simulation Hour (30 min Warm Up + 1 hr AM Peak)
Average Travel Time
10.5 min (BC) vs 11.5 min (Remove)
39
7:31:00
7:33:00
7:35:00
7:37:00
7:39:00
7:41:00
7:43:00
7:45:00
7:47:00
7:49:00
7:51:00
7:53:00
7:55:00
7:57:00
7:59:00
8:01:00
8:03:00
8:05:00
8:07:00
8:09:00
8:11:00
8:13:00
8:15:00
8:17:00
8:19:00
8:21:00
8:23:00
8:25:00
8:27:00
8:29:00
8:31:00
8:33:00
8:35:00
8:37:00
8:39:00
8:41:00
8:43:00
8:45:00
8:47:00
8:49:00
8:51:00
8:53:00
8:55:00
8:57:00
8:59:00
Number of Vehicles in Simulation
No of Vehicles in Simulation
8000
No. of Vehicles in Remove Option 2
Average Speed
29 kph (BC) vs 24.5 kph (Remove)
Speed Remove Option 2
16000
14000
50
12000
10000
40
Warm Up
30
6000
1600 Blocked Vehicles
2000
0
20
4000
10
Average S peed (vph)
Network Wide Measures: Base Case vs.
Remove Option 2
Speed
60
0
Simulation Hour (30 min Warm Up + 1 hr AM Peak)
Average Travel Time
10.5 min (BC) vs 12.5 min (Remove)
40
Example of DVP Blockage (Remove
Option 2)
DVP
41
Off-ram
18 (12 to 24)
Route Travel Time (Mins) Eastbound
Gardiner
Avg
DVP atDVP
Dundas
Min
Max
24 (19 to 27)
BIA
Base Case
26 (20 to 32)
Spadina
Off-ramp
York
Off-ramp
20.5 (15 to 24)
Jarvis
Off-ramp
22 (16 to 26)
24.5 (19 to 29)
Gardiner at
Gardiner
Park Lawn
23 (18 to 27)
East End
DVP
DVP at Dundas
28 (23 to 31)
Remove Option 1
BIA
25 (20 to 28)
Spadina
Off-ramp
20.5 (16 to 23)
Gardiner
at
Gardiner
Park Lawn
York
Off-ramp
BIA
Spadin
Off-ram
12 (923
to (18
14) to 26)
21.5 (16 to 24)
Spadina
Off-ramp
DVP
Jarvis
Off-ramp
Yonge
Off-ramp
Sherbourne
Off-ramp
9 (7 to 10)
14 (12 to 16)
33.5 (28 to 37)
BIA
28.5 (23 to 33)
Spadina
Off-ramp
23 (18 to 27)
Gardiner at
Gardiner
Park Lawn
East End
DVP
6.5 (4 to 8) DVP at Dundas
West End
8 (6 to 10)
15.5 (13 to 17)
Remove
West End Option 2
27.5 (22 to 30)
York
Off-ramp
14 (11
16)
28to
(22
to 32)
24.5 (20 to 29)
Spadina
Off-ramp
12 (10 to 14)
BIA
DVP
Jarvis
Off-ramp
Yonge
Off-ramp
Sherbourne
Off-ramp
12 (9 to 14)
10 (7 to 11)
33 (28 to 37)
East End
42
7
23 (18 to 27)
Off-ram
East
End
DVP
Route Travel Time (Mins) Westbound
Gardiner
18 (12 to 24)
28 (23 to 31)
BIA
25 (20 to 28)
Spadina
Off-ramp
Base Case
20.5 (16 to 23)
York
Off-ramp
Jarvis
Off-ramp
Max
DVP atDVP
Dundas
23 (18 to 26)
12 (9 to 14)
27.5 (22 to 30)
Spadina
Off-ramp
Yonge
Off-ramp
Sherbourne
Off-ramp
9 (7 to 10)
8 (6 to 10)
15.5 (13 to 17)
DVP
6.5 (4 to 8)33.5 (28 to 37)
28.5 (23 to 33)
Remove Option 1
Gardiner
23 (18 to 27)
York
Off-ramp
24.5 (20 to 29)
Spadina
Off-ramp
DVP at DVP
Dundas
Jarvis
Off-ramp
BIA
14 (1128to(22
16)to 32)
Yonge
Off-ramp
12 (10 to 14)
33 (28 to 37)
Sherbourne
Off-ramp
12 (9 to 14)
East End
Spadin
Off-ram
10 (7 to 11)
18.5 (16 to 20)
7
DVP atDVP
Dundas
14 (12 to 16)
BIA
Remove Option 2
21.5 (19 to 24)
West End
16 (14 to 19)
Spadina
Off-ramp
Gardiner at
Park
Lawn
West
End
East End
BIA
Spadina
Off-ramp
Gardiner at
Park
Lawn
West
End
Min
BIA
21.5 (16 to 24)
Gardiner
Gardiner at
Park
Lawn
West
End
Avg
15 #REF!
(13 to 18)
Yonge
Off-ramp
Sherbourne
Off-ramp
14.5 (12 to 17)
12 (10 to 15)
43
Approximate Delay Cost
AM
Remove Option 1
Remove Option 2
3 hrs x 574 x $27/hr
3 hrs x 896 x $27/hr
46,550$
75,592$
Assume PM: the same
Assume no losses during off peak
In a year
93,100 $/ day
145,184 $/ day
93,100*250= $23.3 M/year
145,184*250= $36.3 M/year
Peak Period Duration (hr) x Additional Lost Time Due to Remove (veh.hr) x Value of Time ($/hr)
44
Conclusions


Corridor performance largely depends on the speed limit, cycle times and
pedestrian crossing (one or two steps) on the new Blvd.
Remove option 1 (traffic oriented):
–
–
–
–
–
–

Average increase in network travel time: 1 min
EB: average GE travel time increased from 0 min to 4.5 min (up to 20% increase)
WB: average GE travel time increased from 2 min to 4 min (up to 25% increase)
Average pedestrian crossing time: 205 sec
Vehicles blocked outside the network: 400
Approximate delay cost: $23.3 M/year
Remove option 2 (pedestrian oriented):
–
–
–
–
–
–
Average increase in network travel time: 2 min
EB: average GE travel time increased from 2.5 min to 10 min (up to 50% increase)
WB: average GE travel time increased from 4 min to 6.5 min (up to 40% increase)
Average pedestrian crossing time: 90 sec
Vehicles blocked outside the network: 1600
Approximate delay cost: $36.6 M/year
45
Thank You!