N e pa l E a r t h q u a k e 2 0 1 5
Post Disaster
Needs Assessment
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
G o v e r n m e n t o f n e pa l
N at i o na l p l ann i n g c o m m i s s i o n
K at h m a n d u 2 0 1 5
N e pa l E a r t h q u a k e 2 0 1 5
Post Disaster
Needs Assessment
Vo l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
G o v e r n m e n t o f n e pa l
N at i o na l p l ann i n g c o m m i s s i o n
Nepal Earthquake 2015
Post Disaster Needs Assessment
Vol. B: sector reports
Copyright © 2015
Published by
Government of Nepal
National Planning Commission
Singha Durbar, Kathmandu
Tel: (+977)-014211136
Fax: (+977)-014211700
Email: npcs@npc.gov.np
Web: www.npc.gov.np
All rights reserved. No parts of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by
any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission.
Photos were generously provided by the following: ADB/Samir Jung Thapa; ECHO/Pierre Prakash; WFP/Johnathan Buckingham;
UNICEF/Narendra Shrestha; IOM/Eunhin Jeong; Habitat for Humanity Nepal/Sameer Bhattarai; UNHCR; UNDP/Lesley Wright;
UNDP/Laxmi Prasad Ngakhusi; UNDP; FAO Nepal; FAO/Ann-Marie Wilcock; and UNFPA
Designed and Processed by Print Communication Pvt. Ltd.
Tel: (+977)-014241355, Kathmandu, Nepal
Cover Illustration by Nem Bahadur Tamang
Printed in Nepal
Contents
S o c i a l S e c t o r s 1
Housing and Human Settlements
3
Health and Population
19
Nutrition37
Education49
Cultural Heritage
65
P r o d u c t i v e S e c t o r s 77
Agriculture79
Irrigation93
Commerce and Industry
101
Tourism115
Financial Sector
127
I n f r a s t r u c t u r e S e c t o r s 139
Electricity141
Communications153
Community Infrastructure
163
Transport171
Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene
181
C r o ss - C u t i n g S e c t o r s 195
Environment and Forestry 197
Employment and Livelihoods 211
Gender Equality and Social Inclusion 225
Social Protection
239
Governance253
Disaster Risk Reduction
267
P
o v e rt y
M
An
d
Hu
a c ro e c o n o m i c
m a n
Im
Deve
pa c t
lo p m e n t
A ss e
ss m e n t
285
293
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
iv
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
SOCIAL
SECTORS
Housing and Human Settlements
Health and Population
Nutrition
Education
Cultural Heritage
1
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
2
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
1. Housing and Human Settlements
Summary
The sector of housing and human settlements
was affected the most. The total effects (damages and losses) are valued at NPR 350,379 million, with the total damages amounting to NPR
303,631 million and the total losses estimated at
NPR 46,748 million.
Computing Damages and Losses: Damages
are defined as the combined replacement cost
of destroyed houses, the repair cost of partially
damaged houses, the replacement cost of household goods destroyed, and damages to the real
estate sector. Losses are the combined cost of demolition and clearing, costs of provision of transitional shelter, rental losses, and losses sustained
by the real estate sector.
The assessment targeted the 31 districts that were
declared affected by the Government of Nepal
(GoN).The 2011 Census provided the baseline and the Nepal Government Disaster Risk
Reduction Portal (http://drrportal.gov.np/)1
of the Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) provided information on housing damage. A total
of 498,852 houses were categorized as fully collapsed or damaged beyond repair and 256,697
houses were partly damaged. The estimated damage and losses are presented in Table 1.1.
Recovery and Reconstruction Needs: Based
on the damages and losses, the recovery and reconstruction needs were estimated to be NPR
327,762 million. These include the costs of
providing transitional sheltering, permanent
housing reconstruction with structural resilience, demolition and debris clearance, repairs
and retrofitting, clustering of dwellings to safe
locations, training and facilitation, and urban
planning, including heritage settlement planning. Housing and settlements have been reviewed to ensure the disaster resilience of the
entire community keeping in mind aspects
of location-based vulnerability. The data for
Table 1.1: Total Damages and Losses
Details
Number of houses
Collapsed houses
Low-strength masonry
474,025
199,091
Cement based masonry
18,214
19,671
6,613
39,680
RC frame
Total
Damages
Damaged houses
498,852
Low-strength masonry
173,867
7,302
Cement based masonry
RC frame
65,859
16,971
256,697
7,113
10,182
Total
HH goods
Real estate sector
Total damages
Demolition and debris clearance
Losses
8
Damages and losses (NPR million)
Transitional shelters
258,442
24,597
16,382
4,210
303,631
9,941
14,968
Rental Loss
1,999
Real estate
20,000
Total loss
46,908
Total effects (Damages and losses)
350,540
The damage data on private housing was captured as of May 28, 2015.
3
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
struct their houses in the building typology and
size of their choice by adding resources from their
own savings or labour provided the construction
complies with GoN’s disaster-resistant construction guidelines. From a settlement planning view,
reconstruction also presents an opportunity to upgrade living conditions.
clustering of dwellings to safe locations in all
the affected districts could not be verified at the
time of preparation of PDNA. Clustering cases
require careful and detailed analysis of landslide
risks and socio-economic impacts, along with
close consultation with impacted communities.
The recovery of the housing sector would be
based on the principles of equity, inclusion and
community participation through an ownerdriven reconstruction (ODR) approach to build
back better. Depending on the extent of damage, affected families will receive support in
reconstructing, repairing and retrofitting their
houses, in the form of financial assistance, technical guidance, social mobilization and skill
upgrade. Financial assistance in tranches will be
based on compliance with disaster-resistant construction guidelines as laid down by GoN.
The total number of houses to be reconstructed
has been calculated on the basis of number of
households made homeless. Considering the average number of households per house for each
district, the total requirement came to 609,938
houses. This number may change after the muchneeded household assessment of damages.
Pre-Disaster Context and Baseline
Policies on Housing and Settlements
Several Constitutional Acts and policies are particularly relevant for the housing and settlements
sector. The 2007 Interim Constitution of Nepal
states the responsibility of the state to provide land
to the economically weak and/or landless sections.
The 2012 National Shelter Policy enunciates the
right to safe and adequate housing for all. The
2007 National Urban Policy calls for settlement
and economic activities that promote a balanced
national urban structure; development of safe and
prosperous settlement areas by increasing resilience against environmental shocks and stresses;
and effective urban management through capacity
development of local bodies.
For remote areas, heritage settlements and urban
areas, special assistance packages may be considered over and above the basic recovery package.
Providing handholding support to owners will
require a well-defined human resource set-up of
master artisans, junior and senior engineers, and
community organizers, coordinated at the Village
Development Committee (VDC), district and national levels, respectively, and guided by a Technical Committee. This will also help regenerate the
local economy. Further, clustering of communities
should be exercised only in special circumstances.
House owners will have an opportunity to conTable 1.2: Total Recovery Needs
Details
Demolition
Low-strength
Cement-based
Number of houses
21,000
94,805
54,000
7,285
300,000
5,291
Low-strength
8,000
474,025
Cement-based
20,000
18,214
250,000
6,613
RC frame
Debris clearance
Unit rates (NPR/house)
RC frame
3,971
5,810
160
Cost of equipment for demolition and debris removal
24,540
609,938
14,968
New house reconstruction (450 sqft/ unit)
405,000
609,938
247,025
Repairs and retrofitting
121,500
256,697
31,189
22,254
10,525
Transitional shelter
Clustering of houses
Subtotal
Training, facilitation and quality assurance costs
Urban planning (including heritage settlement planning)
Total
4
Amount (NPR million)
313,649
2.5%
2%
7,841
6,273
327,762
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
The 2012 National Land Use Policy classifies different categories of land, with a focus on optimal
utilization and enforcement of land use control.
It encourages relocation of settlements from hazard-prone areas and settlement development in
hazard free, safer locations. The implementation
of this policy is being strengthened with a threetier participatory land use planning exercise.
The 1999 Local Self Governance Act (LSGA)
provides a mandate to local bodies (VDC, District Development Committee [DDC], Ward
Committee and Municipality [MNC]) mainly
for development planning and budgeting, building local infrastructure, providing basic services,
maintaining records and protecting public land,
and mobilizing and coordinating local development partners. Local bodies are also responsible
for implementing land use policy, enforcing and
monitoring the building code, and ensuring the
construction of disaster-resilient infrastructure
at the local level. In addition, the 2013 Environment Friendly Local Governance (EFLG) Framework seeks to promote voluntary compliance in
the environmental management sector at the local level. It elaborates the process, mechanism and
motivation for achieving and recognizing a set of
indicators for VDCs, DDCs and MNCs.
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
neering practice. However, the current Act does
not include any liability provision. The National
Plan of Action for Safer Building Construction
is a comprehensive action plan, which is currently in a draft stage.
Issues Related to Land Tenure
The existing land administration in Nepal is parcel
based. The land registration system, introduced in
1965, is based on cadastral maps with a unique real
estate identifier or parcel number. Different tenure systems (among them, statutory, customary,
religious and informal, urban and rural) co-exist
in Nepal. Almost all cultivable land, 27 percent of
the total land mass comprising about 30 million
parcels, is registered with formal tenure.
There are three official land tenure systems in
Nepal. These includestate-owned land (land
owned by government agencies, and public land
owned by local bodies), rural marketplaces, cemeteries, temples and playgrounds, among others;
private land, where the ownership certificate or
title ensures formal rights to all owner-registered
land; and Guthi land which is owned by trusts
and community groups, which, as a tenure system, may be of significance for addressing issues
of heritage settlements.
The 1999 Building Act promotes safer building
practices covering four types of buildings, namely
those that are state of the art; professionally engineered; constructed according to the mandatory
rule of thumb (MRT); and rural buildings. The
Nepal National Building Code (NBC), too, has
been developed along these lines. The Department of Urban Development and Building Construction (DUDBC) is recognized as the central
institution for implementation of the building
code and monitoring local bodies.
In addition to these, there are several religious and
traditional types of tenure that are not recorded
in the land register; informal and squatter settlements, as well as dual ownership with tenancy.
DUDBC is also the implementing and monitoring authority for apartments in the country.
The 1997 Apartment Act promotes apartment
living as one of the ways to solve the increasing
demand for housing.
Men own most of the houses. Less than 20 percent
of land parcels (including houses) are owned by
women, the majority of which are in urban areas.
The 1999 Nepal Engineers Act provides the
basis for a registration system for engineers
through the Nepal Engineering Council (NEC),
which has put in place a system of competencybased registration with periodic renewal in order
to bring a positive change in the current engi-
l
The residential and agricultural land of almost
all earthquake-affected areas is mapped and registered with formal titles. Some land parcels in
newly settled areas on the periphery of villages
may be unmapped or unregistered and hence
may lack formal title.
Urban Growth and Current Planning
Initiatives
Urban Settlements and Population Influx
Nepal, a predominantly rural country, has experienced increased urbanization in recent decades,
with a current urbanization level of about 38
percent and a decadal urban growth rate of 6.4
5
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
percent from 2001 to 2011. In the same period,
Kathmandu alone has had a 61 percent decadal
growth, with a disproportionate influx from rural
areas. This raises concerns of disaster risks to cities. The 2015 earthquake affected a total of 41
municipalities and many market areas.
and semi-rural areas, where there is no building
permit system or compliance mechanism, local
artisans provide all the necessary technical and
management support for construction, with the
house owner’s family pitching in with labour. The
house grows incrementally over a period of time.
Urban Planning and Development -A Case of Kathmandu Valley
In the urban areas, the role of the house owner
changes to managing construction materials
and labour, and the whole construction process
requires a much larger cash flow. Construction
in urban areas involves petty contractors and,
sometimes, engineers and architects. Municipal
areas have mandated building permit and compliance systems.
Land use change modelling and analysis has
shown that the urban morphology of Kathmandu
Valley has changed drastically in the past two
decades, with a 211 percent increase in built-up
area between 1992 and 2012. This has occurred
through an equivalent loss of cultivated land and
significant encroachment of open spaces. This,
coupled with significantly increasing density, has
increased the urban risks in Kathmandu Valley.
The Kathmandu Valley Development Authority (KVDA) is in the process of implementing
a 20-year (2015-2035) Strategic Development
Master Plan. Its four major focus areas include
infrastructure improvements, environmental
improvements, urban regeneration, and land use
planning with a focus on risk-sensitive land use
planning (RSLUP).
National Urban Development Strategy
The National Urban Development Strategy (at
present in the approval phase) seeks to promote
resilience in urban development by means of climate change adaptation; development in safer locations; review and enforcement of building codes,
regulations, guidelines and planning by-laws; and
building the capacity of government institutions
and local bodies. Some immediate proposed programmes for fostering resilience in urban development include the following: preparation of
RSLUP; completion of the Kathmandu Urban
Transport Master Plan (KUTMP); revision of
building by-laws; establishment of a hierarchy of
road networks; modification in land readjustment
regulations; regeneration of traditional agropolitan settlements; development, conservation and
management of multipurpose open spaces; and
institutional and capacity-building of KVDA for
planning and implementation.
House Construction Process and
Building Typologies
6
A large majority of houses in Nepal are nonengineered and constructed by owners themselves through the non-formal sector. In rural
Based on the predominant building types in
the affected areas, housing can be categorized
into four main types based on their vertical
and lateral load-bearing systems, in line with
the 2011 Census:
• Low-strength masonry buildings are constructed locally (in available stone, fired brick
and sun-dried brick) in mud mortar. They are
typically two-storey buildings excluding the
attic, with timber or bamboo floors overlaid
with mud. The roofs are mostly of timber
or bamboo covered with tiles, slate, shingles
or corrugated galvanized iron (CGI) sheets.
The walls tend to be very thick, depending
upon the type of walling units. The seismic
capacity of these buildings is very low, limited by the integrity of structural components,
strength of walls, and lack of elements tying
the structure together (ring beams at wall or
roof level). Vertical and horizontal wooden
elements are sometimes embedded in walls,
providing some level of earthquake resistance, but this is very uncommon.
• Cement-mortared masonry buildings have
walls of fired brick, concrete block or stone
in cement-sand mortar and are usually constructed up to three storeys. The floors and
roofs are made of reinforced concrete or reinforced brick concrete. Despite the use of
high-quality materials, these buildings suffer
from deficient construction practices. Provision of earthquake-resistant features is not
commonly found in these buildings.
• Reinforced concrete frames with masonry
infill consist of cast-in-situ concrete frames
with masonry partition and infill walls
(brick, block or stone masonry) that are not
tied to the frame. With floors and roofs of
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
reinforced concrete slabs, these buildings are
usually constructed up to four storeys, but
buildings up to even 20 storeys have been
observed. Despite the use of high quality materials and the fact that seismic detailing has
become more common in recent years, the
vast majority of these buildings suffer from
deficient construction practices.
• Wood and bamboo buildings are constructed
with wooden planks, thatch or bamboo strip
walling materials, with flexible floors and
roof. These suffered less damage from the
earthquake due to their light weight.
Post-Disaster Context
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
mortar or reinforced concrete; and non-engineered buildings. Efforts to improve the building
stock were mostly concentrated in urban areas,
with little dissemination of knowledge in rural
areas where most of the houses are constructed
with traditional materials.
Additionally, there is a strong culture of extending the house both vertically and horizontally,
with no consideration given to the structural
strength of the original building. This issue is particularly relevant for vertical extensions. Further,
this problem has been exacerbated by a lack of
maintenance of old buildings.
Types of Building Damage
Analysis of Building Damage
A large-scale survey by MoHA during the month
following the earthquake showed that a total of
498,852 houses collapsed fully or were damaged beyond repair and 256,697 houses were
partly damaged. However, this rapid assessment
is not a technical assessment and does not categorize the damage by building type or urban/
rural context. For operationalizing the recovery
strategy, a more rigorous technical household assessment will be undertaken.
The catastrophic effects of the earthquake on the
built environment of Nepal was primarily the
result of the significant seismic vulnerability of
unreinforced masonry buildings that predominate throughout the country. There is a general
lack of awareness of seismic risk in communities,
coupled with a lack of dissemination of improved
construction practices (particularly in rural areas), and a slow mechanism for enforcement of
the relevant building codes.
Most of the areas where buildings suffered damage
were not subject to enforcement of the NBC and
standards. Even in municipal areas where compliance with the NBC is required for new buildings,
the implementation mechanism is weak. Most
of the buildings that suffered damage were old
constructions in mud mortar, without adequate
seismic-resilient detailing; buildings marked by
deficient construction practices, whether cement
The 498,852 houses that are either fully collapsed or damaged beyond repair as well as the
256,697 partially damaged houses have been
distributed in the three building typologies of
low-strength masonry, cement-based masonry
and reinforced concrete frame. The extent of
physical damage to the three building types
was calculated on the basis of vulnerability
curves developed by the National Society for
Earthquake Technology (NSET). Based on the
field observation, the main types of physical
damage were identified as follows:
Main Types of Damage in Masonry
Buildings
Lack of integrity between different structural members and inherent weak properties of the materials
was the main cause of failures in masonry buildings. This resulted in parapet and gable wall toppling; delamination of low-strength masonry walls;
out-of-plane toppling of walls; corner separation of
walls; various types of wall failures under in-plane
loading such as diagonal cracks, sliding cracks,
crushing of piers, failure of spandrels; and collapse
of floor and roof due to loss of vertical load-bearing
elements such as walls.
Main Types of Damage in Reinforced
Concrete (RC)Buildings
Damage to RC buildings was predominantly
due to lack of strength and ductility. This resulted in toppling of parapets, infill walls and
Table 1.3: Existing Building Typologies in the 31 Affected Districts (Ref CBS 2011)
Low-strength masonry
Cement-based masonry
Reinforced concrete frame
Wood and bamboo based
58%
21%
15%
6%
7
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
partition walls; damage to infill-walls; diagonal,
sliding cracks, crushing of piers in infill walls;
soft storey failure (collapse of building due to
concentration of damage in a particular storey);
failure of beam-column joint; short column
problem; shear/flexure cracks in column and
beam members; and poor workmanship.
Recovery and Reconstruction Strategy
Recovery Principles
The following guiding principles should
form the basis of strategy and planning of
post-disaster recovery:
1.Encourage the participation of communities by empowering them to take control of
reconstruction of their houses and ensuring
facilitation of ODR.
2.A comprehensive view of housing reconstruction should include holistic habitat
development, with basic services and community infrastructure. The principle of build
back better (BBB) should translate into a
concept of safer settlements.
3. Reconstruction should be seen as a vehicle to
build long-term community resilience by reducing vulnerabilities and strengthening community capacities to mitigate future disasters through
improved construction practices for the majority
of the building stock in the country.
4.Strengthen the local economy through reconstruction and processes that work to the
benefit of the poor and marginalized sections
who are mostly in the informal sector. Reconstruction should provide an opportunity for
the poor to upgrade their living conditions.
5. Ensure sustainable and environment-friendly reconstruction processes, taking note of
climate change, natural resource management and scientific risk assessments.
6.Ensure that rehabilitation is equitable and
inclusive.
Gender and Social Inclusion
The recovery and reconstruction process must
pay considerable attention to women-headed
households, whose presence is significant in the
earthquake-affected districts. Women heading the
family are already overburdened with their routine household activities, which include accessing
basic services, and their contribution to the farm
and other livelihoods. In such circumstances, any
role in the recovery and reconstruction process will
only add to their responsibilities and raise their
workload to unsustainable levels. Further, the average literacy rate of women is 45 percent, and even
lower in the remote earthquake-affected areas. This
should be factored in while developing the construction management plan both for transitional
and permanent shelter. Skill development and capacity building should be conceived in a way that
allows partially literate women to better manage
their money, labour and material purchases as well
as supervise the reconstruction process.
The settlement planning and design of shelters
and services should also integrate social and protection issues generally faced by women in remote
environments. The reconstruction may further
present an opportunity to demonstrate women’s
right to equality by ensuring that they are accorded equal rights to their land and property. The
government can make joint ownership a compulsory condition for receiving government-aided
recovery and reconstruction support.
Technical and construction committees (community-level user committees) should ensure participation of women not only at the level of work
(labour) but also at the level of decision-making,
management and monitoring/supervision.
During construction, there will be a need for
skilled labour and this will create employment
opportunities. Priority should be given to women while providing skills training and employment during construction.
Table 1.4: Building Typologies and Damage
Typology of buildings
Fully collapsed or beyond repairs
Partially damaged (can be repaired/ retrofitted)
Low-strength masonry
474,025 (95%)
173,867 (67.7%)
Cement-based masonry
18,214 (3.7%)
65,859 (25.6%)
6,613 (1.7%)
16,971 (6.7%)
498,852
256,697
Reinforced concrete frame
Total
8
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Disadvantaged Groups
A sizeable percentage of adult Dalits migrate
abroad (59.5 percent), to Kathmandu (23 percent), and a few to nearby urban areas, mostly
in search of jobs. Accordingly, labour mobility
is quite high among them, triggered by a need
to escape caste discrimination in the domestic labour market (‘Dalits and Labour in Nepal: Discrimination and Forced Labour, ILO,
2005’). Amongst Dalits living in hilly areas, the
Kami, Damai and Sarki are the most marginalized and are likely to experience high migration.
Amongst Dalits in the Tarai, the Doms, Chamar,
Satar, Tatmas, Dushads, Mushars, Dhanker and
amongst the indigenous communities, the Santhal, Munda, Jhangad and Kisan, constitute the
largest part of the landless sections. Womenheaded households of Dalit communities would
be the most vulnerable. Similarly, households
comprising only the elderly or people living
with disabilities (PLWD) are more vulnerable.
It is therefore necessary to facilitate and monitor
the progress of recovery of these groups.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
possible. Land acquisition for relocation or clustering is likely to be complicated, difficult and
disputed if the lands considered safe are privately
owned or come under forest land. Moreover, the
costs of relocation are likely to be very high. The
government has identified a need for clustering
22,256 households, along with infrastructure
provision and settlement planning, at the cost
of NPR10,525 million. There will be a rigorous
multi-hazard study of each site. Settlement Planning Approach for
Rural Housing
It is important that housing reconstruction is
viewed in larger terms to include community infrastructure within the settlements such as access to
water, sanitation, waste disposal, energy, risk mitigation measures and others. At the local level, consultative processes with the community should be
undertaken to identify the community infrastructure that needs to be built, repaired, improved,
augmented, or enhanced, and mechanisms should
be developed for implementation. Efforts should
also be made to promote planning principles.
Land Use and Clustering of Housing
In a post-disaster scenario, the clustering/relocation of settlements whose present location is
at high risk should be considered. Additionally, it is likely that some households may have
lost their land in the earthquake and may need
clustering. However, before considering the option of clustering, the following points should
be kept in mind: The alternate low-risk location
should be selected as close as possible to the
original location; beneficiary families should be
consulted while developing the relocation plan
and programmes; the relocation plan should
see to it that the livelihood opportunities of the
beneficiaries are not compromised at any cost;
additional incentives should be provided to the
relocated community in the form of monetary,
material, technical and labour resources for reconstruction; overall living standards should be
improved through the provision of community
services such as schools, health centres and local roads; and temporary access routes to the
original site should be provided to facilitate the
return of the communities to their places of origin to observe ethnic and religious practices.
However, relocation of settlements should be
conducted only when no other in-situ solution is
National Geodetic Network
The National Geodetic Network, which comes
under the Survey Department of the Ministry
of Land Reforms and Management, plays an important role in development and infrastructure
planning for the country. The Geodetic Networksuffered significant damage to the Horizontal
Geodetic Control Network, the National Level
Network and the National Gravity Network, and
their respective sub-components. Additionally,
keeping in mind present and future needs, the
National Geodetic Network also needs further
densification. This work is proposed to be undertaken as part of settlement planning for which a
separate budget has been allocated.
Risk-Sensitive Planning for Urban Areas
The Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD)
is conceptualizing the norms and standards for
safer settlements, among them the integration
of indigenous and technical knowledge to identify and mitigate multi-hazard risks. Appropriate policy initiatives will be required to address
both the urban and rural contexts, reflecting
their inherent differences, the level of impact of
the earthquakes as well as the needs for recovery
based on the principle of building back better.
9
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Besides, long-term comprehensive urban recovery planning should keep in mind projections of
population, urban structures, risk-sensitive land
use plan, transport plan, and risk assessment.
This requires a review of future seismic hazards
based on the latest knowledge of seismology and
geo-tech studies, including an analysis of recorded data of the 2015 Nepal earthquake, and
seismic specifications for structures as in NBC
105 and NBC 108, among others. This exercise
should also take into account other hazards such
as flooding and landslides.
Within the urban environment, three distinct
urban categories are emerging and each one
demands well targeted and specialized interventions. These include the Kathmandu Valley metropolitan and sub-metropolitan areas,
heritage settlements, and smaller and relatively
newer municipalities. Settlements with heritage
importance will require a special focus to ensure
improvement in the housing stock while retaining their heritage value. Similarly, infrastructural
needs of small and new municipal areas need to
be identified and planned during reconstruction.
There is an urgent need for balanced growth by
developing smaller municipalities on the basis of
a regional planning perspective. Housing reconstruction should follow this overall framework.
On the other hand, to mitigate the effect of disasters on high-rise buildings, a building code
regulation on anti-seismic high-rise structures,
with regulations covering the height of buildings, proportion of floor space to the occupied
ground, along with appropriate development
control rules with institutional enforcement and
management capacity, is required.
Strategy for Transition and
Reconstruction Phase
Strategy for the Transitional Phase
In the short term, the focus of the recovery
strategy will be:
• on addressing the immediate needs of the affected people during the transitional phase; and
• on planning, preparing and commencing the
reconstruction phase.
Solutions for transitional shelter are needed so
that people can live with a certain degree of
comfort and dignity untill permanent reconstruction or repair and retrofitting work is com10
pleted. People must be informed of ways to improve the transitional shelters as they may have
to inhabit them for a couple of years.
Demolition, Debris Clearance and
Salvaging Material
This process needs to be undertaken at the earliest before owners can go ahead with reconstruction. It provides an opportunity for house
owners to salvage materials as well. Field observations have shown that owners of low-strength
masonry buildings were able to quickly demolish and salvage materials, and that a significant
portion of such houses was, in fact, salvageable.
Owners of RC frame buildings are in a more
difficult situation as damaged buildings that are
still standing may be in a perilous state and may
require special skills and tools for demolition.
Moreover, debris disposal will have to be carefully planned keeping in mind environmental
considerations, so as to avoid blocking waterways or damaging agricultural lands.
Planning for Reconstruction
A comprehensive, rigorous and transparent
household damage assessment and eligibility
survey are required to understand the nature and
extent of damage and formulate eligibility criteria for the governmentto plan its reconstruction
assistance programme. Detailed policy packages
for house reconstruction, repair and retrofitting
will be required for all affected social groups,
particularly the poor and vulnerable, tenants,
women-headed households, and families living in remote areas. Important early activities
for long-term recovery include large-scale communication of the reconstruction programme,
communication of safe construction practices
(since many have already started rebuilding) and
the setting up of a cascading social-technical
facilitation mechanism for recovery (at the national, district and local level).
Strategy for the Reconstruction Phase
The entire housing reconstruction process is
likely to take up to five years. The reconstruction process will empower communities and
households to take charge of their own recovery
through the ODR approach wherever possible.
Households will be facilitated with significant
technical assistance to manage reconstruction.
Housing reconstruction grants will be provided
in tranches, based on compliance with GoN’s
disaster-resistant construction guidelines. Cas-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
cading training programmes will be needed on a
large scale to build the necessary pool of trained
masons, carpenters and artisans.
enforcement of building standards; and the lack
of high-technical capacities in private engineering practice, among others.
Specific strategies will be required to address the
complex process of recovery of urban environments, among them the management of demolition in dense neighbourhoods, fragmentation
of building ownership, high level of tenancies,
the heterogeneity of community structures and,
particularly, the dynamic migration patterns of
urban populations. The tools and activities to
support urban recovery would include monitoring systems for urban displacement and migration; detailed hazard mapping; participatory
planning exercises; rapid urban expansion studies; facilitated management structures (bringing
together communities, government and the private sector); and rental stock support plans.
Overall 609,938 housing units will need to
be constructed and 256,697 houses will require repair and retrofitting in the course of
the reconstruction programme.
Apart from ensuring that all homes are rebuilt to
hazard-resilient standards, reconstruction aims
to start addressing underlying processes that create vulnerability, going beyond the areas affected
by the earthquake. As such, recovery should foster reformative rather than restorative processes
by tackling the underlying causes of vulnerability and risks, based on in-depth studies. Common causes of vulnerability include the lack of
dissemination of knowledge, leading to low risk
awareness; inadequate training among artisans
and builders in safe construction practices; lax
Careful consideration will be required for houses accommodating more than one family or
comprising absentee members, women-headed
households or those belonging to marginalized
caste groups. Affected communities in remote
areas may also require more attention, particularly for transport of material, cash transfers,
technical facilitation, and monitoring.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Implementation Arrangements
The success of the recovery strategy will depend
on its implementation mechanism and modalities. The main components of the strategy are to:
• ensure identification of affected households
through transparent and comprehensive
criteria,accompanied by a robust mechanism
of vetting and redressing grievances; and
• empower and facilitate house owners through
an owner-led reconstruction mechanism.
Building Damage and Eligibility Survey
A household damage assessment and eligibility
survey is critical for identifying specific damages
Table 1.5: Recovery and Reconstruction Costs
Details
Demolition
Unit rates (NPR/unit)
Number of houses
Amount (NPR million)
Low-strength
21,000
94,805
3,971
Cement-based
54,000
7,285
RC frame
Debris clearance
Low-strength
Cement-based
300,000
5,291
8,000
474,025
5,810
20,000
18,214
250,000
6,613
24,540
609,938
14,968
New house reconstruction (450 sqft/ unit)
405,000
609,938
247,025
Repairs and retrofitting
121,500
256,697
31,189
RC frame
160
Cost of equipment for demolition and debris removal
Temporary shelter
Clustering of houses
Training, facilitation and quality assurance costs
Urban planning (including heritage settlement planning)
Total
22254
10,525
Subtotal
313,649
2.5%
7,841
2%
6,273
327,762
11
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
household (through an MoU), committing to the
roles and responsibilities of the household, such as
abiding by officially approved standards and using
assistance only for housing construction,opening
a bank account to receive assistance, and receiving
training on reconstruction practices.
to housing in order to ascertain the eligibility
for housing recovery assistance in a uniform and
transparent manner. The survey should be conducted at the earliest, namely before households
commence the process of demolition and follow
it up with the construction of new houses in
their efforts at self-recovery.
Building Construction Technologies,
Materials and Labour
The assessment will link a particular aspect of
damage and building typology to a specific safe
reconstruction activity (such as the repair of a
wall or complete reconstruction of a building
of a certain type) and assistance package. Information gathered from the survey can further
serve as the basis for a powerful management
information system (MIS) to monitor recovery.
Modern GPS-enabled electronic tablets can be
leveraged to streamline the data-gathering process and mapping of activities and needs.
Building Construction Technologies
Enhancements are required to ensure that reconstruction adheres to practices that build
back better. Most heavily damaged buildings did
not comply with any of the national building
regulations and guidelines.
Adherence to basic disaster-resistant elements (corner stitches, vertical reinforcement, diagonal bracing
and horizontal bands, among others), coupled with
adherence to proper masonry construction practices, should be made mandatory. The mandatory
rule of thumb of NBC should be put into practice
and enforced where applicable. Reinforced concrete
The assessment will also play a key communicating role in appraising households with the steps
of recovery, among them the signing of a mutual agreement between the government and the
Table 1.6: Likely Building Construction Technology Options for Reconstruction
Building typology
Major building
components
Low-strength masonry
Stone
masonry
Brick
masonry
Cement-based masonry
Brick
masonry
Foundation
Wall material
Upper floor/ Attic
Roof
Seismic resistant elements
Blocks
masonry
Linear wall footing
Isolated column
footing tied together by
foundation beams/ raft
Concrete block
Soil stabilized block
Brick or concrete block
infill in cement mortar
•Stabilized mud on
timber joist and planking
• RC/ RB slab
• RC slab
• RB slab
RC slab
• CGI sheet
RC slab
• RC/ RB slab
• CGI sheet
• RC/ RB slab
• Wooden/ bamboo bands,
RC bands, vertical reinforcements,
stitches
RC frame with full
compliance with ductile
detailing
Stone
Brick
• RC band, ties and stitches wher-
Brick
ever possible
Indicative cost per sq ft of
plinth area, NPR
900
1500
2000
Likely proportion of reconstruction (KTM Valley)*
24%
38%
38%
Likely proportion of reconstruction (Other districts)*
77%
15%
8%
Timber could be preserved and used efficiently through simple innovations
* Based on proportional distribution of typologies in 2011 Census accepted as trend
12
RC frame (for small to
medium size building)
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
building construction should incorporate proper
seismic (ductile) detailing. For small buildings,
‘confined masonry’ should be encouraged in favour
of concrete frame with masonry infill, as confined
masonry has shown better seismic performance.
For heritage settlements, special technology options
and guidelines, including those for repair and retrofitting, should be developed. A summary of likely
building technology options is shown in Table 1.6.
Requirement of Construction Materials
With over 600,000 houses to be constructed and
about 250,000 to be repaired and retrofitted,there
will be a huge rise in building construction activities spread over several years. Two critical potential bottlenecks for effective reconstruction are
availability of construction materials and labour
(in addition to availability of finance). Mechanisms will be needed to ensure that materials are
available at a reasonable price and are accessible in
locations where needed.
The total annual production capacity of the various materials against the total likely requirement
of post-earthquake housing reconstruction
is shown below.
The materials salvaged from collapsed houses are
likely to result in recycling of 80 percent stone, 30
percent wood and 25 percent brick in reconstruction. This will help speed up reconstruction by
reducing financial and transport burdens. Appropriate guidelines about reuse of salvaged materials
should be developed and disseminated to house
owners to ensure good quality construction.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Labour Requirements
Housing reconstruction on such a large scale
will require a significant workforce (estimated
at 352 million workdays). Assuming that the
bulk of construction will occur in the first three
years, it is estimated that the labour requirement will peak at 0.7million workers only for
reconstruction. According to current estimates
there are one million workers already involved
in the housing sector (ILO). Hence, a significant
amount of unskilled work will likely be undertaken by family members themselves, which will
alleviate this need to some extent.
The main concern is with regard to the skilled
workforce, which constitutes around 46 percent
of the labour force required. The housing component alone may need over 20,000 masons,
many of whom either engage in part-time labour
or travel between Nepal, India and the Middle
East. This sector of the labour market needs to
be augmented through a large scale training programme with a wide geographic spread.
Financial and Socio-Technical Facilitation
Financial Facilitation
The government will devise a financing policy
clearly stating the modalities of grants and loans
as well as the owner contribution expected for
rebuilding private houses.
A robust and fully transparent system will have
to be developed for transparent and timely cash
transfers of assistance packages while ensur-
Table 1.7: Expected Total Demand for Housing Materials
Unit
Annual production for Nepal
(Pre-disaster scenario)
Total projected demand for
Housing reconstruction
(post-disaster scenario)
Ordinary portland cement
Million Ton
3.5
2.01
2
Deformed steel bars - 10-25mm
Million Ton
0.75
0.14
3
CGI Sheets - 26 G medium
Million Ton
0.8
0.09
4
Burnt bricks
Million No.
430*
1193
5
Timber
Million m3
0.55
6
Quarry stone/ rubble
Million m3
22.15
7
River sand
Million m3.
2.61
8
Aggregates - 10-20mm
Million m3
0.83
9
Galvanized welded wire mesh (WWM)
- 13 G 25mmx25mm
Million Ton
0.01
No.
Item
1
Note: * Production estimate pertaining only to the Kathmandu Valley
13
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
ing compliance with standards and guidelines
for disaster-resistant construction. A system to
certify progress and quality of construction will
be put in place at the local level. Typically, the
financial assistance is provided in three or four
stages: The first or initial tranche is given for mobilization of construction work, the second, on
completion of plinth level construction, the third
on completion of walls and the fourth and final
tranche on completion of construction. Usually,
the first three tranches go towards supporting the
construction work, with the final tranche (the
smallest in amount) used more as an incentive
to owners for timely completion of construction.
For remote areas, heritage settlements and urban
areas, special assistance packages over and above
the basic recovery package may be defined.
Socio-technical Facilitation
As recovery efforts are likely to be largely ownerled, it is critical to provide house owners with
on-site guidance and technical assistance in reconstruction, repairs and retrofitting to promote safer
housing. It is necessary to ensure that this aspect
of the recovery programme is not weak. Communities will have to be mobilized to undertake
reconstruction as per the policy and plans put in
place by the government. The entire mechanism
and modalities will have to be explained to them.
A socio-technical facilitation team should be
in place to provide interface between the owners and the government-assisted reconstruction
programme. This mechanism will support the
owners at each stage of construction, making
them aware of the recovery programme and
their entitlement, handholding them through
the administrative processes to avail assistance
as per the modalities defined by government
policy; provide appropriate social and technical
advice at the time of construction; identify and
support owners who require redress of grievances; and assist in certification of stages of construction for financial disbursement.
About 22,250 houses were identified for the
process of clustering due to the likelihood of
hazards at their present locations. Any such effort will have to be evolved only with community involvement and consensus, as the place of
residence is strongly linked to agriculture and
other forms of livelihood, beliefs, associations
and sentiments.
14
Management Structure for Recovery
The success of any recovery effort hinges on the
availability of adequate numbers of trained human resources to provide support and undertake
a variety of tasks. For instance, a socio-technical
support team led by a coordinator at the VDC
level, with Junior Engineers/ sub-overseers, master artisans, and male and female community
organizers that can support a certain number
of families in the reconstruction process, can
ensure quality assurance and compliance with
guidelines. The total number of such teams and
their work responsibility may be decided on the
basis of the geographic spread of affected households in the VDCs and MNCs. Further, these
field teams will have to be coordinated at the
district level by socio-technical teams comprising Senior Engineers, information managers,
communication staff, and district coordinators.
The human resources required for the facilitation of such a large recovery effort will have
to be managed by the proposed extraordinary
mechanism. The total five-year budget for the
cost of the socio-technical facilitation, including human resources, training, quality assurance
and other governance functions, is estimated to
be 2.5 percent of total needs.
Role of the Technical Committee
Identification of the causes of heavy damage to
buildings (soil profiles, improper design and detailing, poor construction practice, among others) will form the basis for the development of
feasible, technical solutions for building back
better. Appropriate measures will be identified
for reconstruction to cover all the prevalent
building typologies. Similarly, simple methods
will be evolved to repair and retrofit non-engineered buildings, along with simple equipment
that can also be used in remote areas.
Considering the complexities of building stock
in the earthquake- affected areas, a Technical
Committee headed by an earthquake engineering advisor could be considered to anchor the
vast variety of technical issues expected to arise
during the reconstruction programme. The
group will reflect a broad range of experience
in post-disaster recovery efforts – from an understanding of Nepali building typologies and
materials, building codes and standards to the
geography of Nepal; from an expertise in geo-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
technical aspects to the socio-cultural landscape
of the country, as well as capacity building.
The technical committee will formulate:
• illustrative guidelines on construction, repair, remediation and seismic improvements
for each building typology;
• illustrative training guidelines for trainers
who will conduct training programmes for
engineers, junior engineers, supervisors and
artisans such as stone masons, brick masons
and carpenters, among others);
• guidelines on building inspection, also reproducing them in an audio-visual format;
and
• methods for dissemination of information.
Capacity-building of Community Organizers,
Artisans and Engineers
Over 25,000 resource persons including masons, carpenters, junior engineers, community
organizers, coordinators and higher-level staff
will be involved in providing construction services to house owners. They have to be trained
in disaster-resistant construction. A large capacity development programme will have to be instituted as part of the socio-technical facilitation
mechanism. This will also involve training the
trainers (community organizers, engineers and
master masons) who will conduct the training
programmes:
Tier 1 training will provide engineers, junior
engineers, foremen, and artisans with basic
training on assessment, repair, remediation and
seismic improvements. Practical and hands-on
training following MRT should be able to address the concerns of simple and small buildings.
Tier 2 training will provide structural engineers
with skills on quantitative assessment and
strengthening of various categories of small
to mid-height buildings. The training should
be practical and hands-on so that it can be
immediately used to give advice on such
buildings during reconstruction.
Tier 3 training will provide skills on quantitative
assessment and strengthening of complex
medium-to-large buildings to limited number
of senior professionals from the fraternity
of structural engineers. The training should
be practical and hands-on so that it can be
immediately used to give advice on such
buildings during reconstruction.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Separate trainings on social facilitation for community organizers will be developed and implemented. These trainings will include simple
modules on key technical aspects for the technical orientation of community organizers. Similarly, the technical trainings would have simple
modules on key aspects of social mobilization
for the proper orientation of technical staff.
Certification of Trainees
Candidates meeting the minimum requirements
would be awarded certificates. Only such artisans should be encouraged to work as lead artisans on the construction site. Engineers/junior
engineers/ sub-engineers/ master masons working on the programme must also be certified
accordingly. This requires instituting a training
certification programme at the earliest so that an
adequate number of artisans are trained before
reconstruction takes off.
Awareness Programme for House Owners
As the recovery effort is going to be largely
owner-led, it is essential to make them aware
of need of disaster-resistant construction. They
will require guidance on the choice of building
typologies, materials and costing in addition
to the minimum disaster-resistant features to
be adopted. To hire artisans and decide on the
type of material and construction system, owners need a degree of awareness. Dissemination of
required information on reconstruction, repairs
and retrofitting to them is very important
Concurrent Monitoring and Quality Assurance
Independent technical monitoring and auditing of house construction as well as repairs and
retrofitting is essential. It is important to ensure
that such quality assurance mechanisms are activated during the reconstruction phase for timely
reporting on the progress and quality of work
achieved so that any redress of deficiency, if present, is addressed. It is necessary to see that independent professional institutions are involved
in concurrent quality assurance to provide this
feedback so that the government mechanism
can then take appropriate decisions to redress
the issues that come up.
Risk Coverage through Insurance
Insurance coverage for housing stock is almost
non-existent in the context of Nepal. Inevitably,
such liabilities end up with the government act15
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
ing as guarantor of last resort. Hence the need
for some form of direct assistance necessitated
by the lack of insurance cover, scarcity of savings, and higher poverty levels. A beginning can
be made by encouraging insurance coverage of
all the houses that will be rebuilt or retrofitted.
The government will make an effort to identify
an appropriate policy framework and mechanism
to see that the houses created in the course of reconstruction and recovery initiatives are insured.
Assessment Methodology
The assessment of damages, losses and recovery
needs is based on overall damage data provided
by MoHA on the DRR portal. The data, collected through the District Disaster Relief Committee (DDRC) from VDCs, categorizes affected
houses as fully collapsed and partially damaged.
As per the damage data, 498,852 houses collapsed fully or were damaged beyond repair, and
256,697 houses sustained partial damage.
Field visits were made to Chautara (Sindhupalchowk District), Khokna (Lalitpur District); Bhaktapur (Bhaktapur District), Gorkha
(Gorkha District), and Gangabhu and Sankhu
(Kathmandu District), to understand the type
and extent of damage to houses. Discussions
with government officials involved in damage
data collection at the district level indicated that
buildings deemed damaged to the point that
repair would be too expensive were counted as
fully damaged. The same was reflected in the
way the damage data was interpreted.
Housing Damage Calculation
Going by the 2011 Census, the building types
in each district were categorized as low-strength
(mud mortar-based) masonry; cement-based
masonry; and reinforced concrete frame structures. The extent of physical damage to the three
building types was calculated on the basis of vulnerability curves developed by NSET. On the
basis of the Nepal Living Standards Survey 20102011, the average sizes of the three building
types were calculated at 600 sq feet (low strength
masonry houses); 900 sq ft (cement mortared
houses, reflecting more well-to-do households),
and 3,000 sq ft (reinforced concrete buildings,
predominantly urban and multi-storeyed). In
the same order, based on prevailing market rates,
the cost per sq ft was NPR700, NPR1,200 and
NPR2,000,respectively.
16
On the basis of the above mentioned values, the
total damages were calculated as the replacement cost of fully destroyed buildings as well as
repair cost (return to previous state) of partially
damaged buildings estimated at 10 percent of
replacement cost.
Damage to Household Goods Calculation
Damage to household goods was based on an
estimated value of household goods by building
type. It was further estimated that in fully damaged houses, 60 percent of household goods were
destroyed and in partially damaged houses 20
percent of the household goods were destroyed.
Calculation of the Cost of Demolition and
Debris Clearance
Many of the houses categorized as fully damaged
are still standing in some form and need to be demolished at the earliest. It was estimated that in the
category of fully damaged residential buildings, 20
percent of the low-strength masonry houses, 40 percent of cement-based masonry houses, and 80 percent of houses with RC frames needed to be demolished. The demolition costs were put at 5 percent
of replacement costs, while clearance was pegged at
NPR8,000, NPR20,000 and NPR250,000, respectively, for the three building types.
Calculations of Real Estate Damages and Losses
Altogether, 10,700 units from 83 high-rise
buildings and 2,881 bungalows from 45 colonies suffered varying levels of physical damage.
Based on an understanding of the real estate sector market and prevalent market rates,the damages and losses were NPR4,210 million and
NPR20,000 million, respectively.
Rental Loss Calculations
Data on the number of rented apartments that collapsed is not available yet. Therefore, it is difficult
to assess the loss of rental income. The most prevalent conditions that renters are in are as follows:
they are being hosted by families and friends; have
returned to their houses in their respective villages;
or have found an alternate place on rent; or are
staying in temporary shelters in camps. The assessment is based on the assumption that the option
of alternate rented accommodation is minimal and
there is loss of gross rental income. This will have
to be confirmed by a detailed survey. The proportion of rental versus ownership was obtained from
the 2011 Census. Rent scenarios and rates for ur-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 1.8: Calculation of Rental Loss
Districts
Average monthly rent (NPR)
Damaged rental units
Destroyed rental units
Kathmandu
21,350
30,182
21,988
Bhaktapur, Lalitpur, Patan
14,850
5,415
13,063
4,200
20,492
7,958
Other districts
ban and rural areas were obtained based on various
sources. For partially damaged units, the rental loss
was assumed as half the rent. Annual losses would
be reduced over time as reconstruction proceeds
and rental units are repaired, reconstructed and
ready for occupation.
Cost Calculation of Transitional Shelters
The number of transitional shelters required is
based on the number of households whose houses
were fully destroyed. As mentioned earlier in this
chapter, based on the damage data and the number of households per house, 609,938 households
will need some form of transitional shelter.
Cost estimations of transitional shelter are based
on the shelter package guide prepared by the
National Planning Commission (NPC). Accordingly, the package should provide approximately 300 sq ft of covered space, roofed by two
bundles of CGI sheets, and leveraging salvageable materials. Allowing for the use of salvaged
materials, a cost of NPR 24,540 would be required for such a shelter.
Needs for Housing Reconstruction and Retrofitting Calculation
As mentioned earlier, while the current number
for the houses that have to be rebuilt stand at
609,938, this number may change after detailed
information becomes available following the
household-level damage assessment.
The need for housing recovery is based on a uniform assumed need per household (not based on
pre-existing houses) of a 450 sq ft core house built
to seismic-resilient standards. The cost of construction was estimated at NPR900 per sq ft, equivalent
to an increase of approximately 30 percent from the
base replacement cost. The cost per house is, therefore, estimated at NPR. 405,000. This amount is
the basis for defining needs, but does not suggest
that affected households will need to construct such
houses. Besides, the amount required for constructing houses in remote areas and heritage settlements
may be higher, and this aspect would be factored
into the calculations. The government acknowledges that the house owner will exercise her/his choice
of building type and house size at the time of reconstruction, conditional on compliance with seismicresistant standards. In order to estimate construction
material needs, it is assumed that the choice of rebuilding will shift slightly away from low-strength
masonry buildings in favour of cement mortared
and reinforced concrete buildings.
A total of 256,697 partially damaged buildings need repair and seismic retrofitting. The
cost for retrofitting is estimated at 30 percent
of the cost of a core house, and comes to NPR
121,500 per house.
The recovery needs for clustering houses have
been calculated on the basis of initial information available from MoUD. Accordingly, about
22,254 houses require clustering. The costs have
been calculated based on a district-wise average
cost of clustering, shifting, provision of basic services, settlement planning, as well as the cost of
land. The estimated costs come to NPR 10,525
million. The exact figures and costs would need
to be updated by means of a more specific and
rigorous assessment of ground conditions.
Training, Facilitation and Quality Assurance
Costs: The total five-year budget for the cost of
the socio-technical facilitation, including human resources, training, quality assurance, communication and other governance functions is
estimated to be 2.5 percent of total needs.
The needs for urban planning, including heritage settlement planning are estimated at 2 percent of the total needs.
17
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
18
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
2. Health And Population
Summary
Severe damages and losses to health infrastructure, disruption of healthcare service delivery,
more than 8,000 deaths and injuries to upwards
of 20,000 individuals testify to the severe manner in which the health and population sector was
affected. Over 80 percent of the affected health
facilities were from the most affected districts and
this affected the ability of these facilities to respond to the healthcare needs of vulnerable populations, including disaster victims, particularly
in remote areas. The overwhelming share of damages and losses was borne by the public sector.
The first priority for the Ministry of Health and
Population (MoHP) and District Health Offices
(DHO) was to put the disrupted health services
back on the rails to address the demands of an
increased patient flow in the affected areas. In
the aftermath of the earthquake, temporary structures had to be rented, drugs and supplies were
needed, an outbreak of vector-borne diseases
had to be prevented, and those affected by the
earthquake required immediate treatment. Such
activities have already been initiated by MoHP.
Further, a comprehensive plan of activities has
been developed for continued treatment of the
injured, regularization of health services delivery,
and repair and reconstruction of damaged health
facilities, with the objective of making the sector
better prepared for disasters.
Recovery and Reconstruction Needs: MoHP has
adopted a three-pillared strategy for recovery and
reconstruction that covers the immediate term
(until mid-July 2015), intermediate term (over
FY 2015-2016) and medium term (FY 2015-216 to 2019-2020):
• The immediate-term strategy is to treat the
injured and resume health services.
• The intermediate-term strategy is to replace
the temporary arrangements (e.g. sheds on
rent) with short-term arrangements to ensure
the continuity of service delivery, cater to the
changing pattern of healthcare needs, and
provide routine services in an uninterrupted
manner. This phase would also include de-
molition of damaged buildings, accomplishment of repair works and reinstatement of
health facilities by setting up pre-fabricated
structures. Moreover, work for setting up
hospitals and rehabilitation centres, and
strengthening institutional capacities of disaster preparedness, will be initiated.
• The medium-term strategy will focus on the
reconstruction of the sector from a longerterm perspective of building back better. This
would entail the reconstruction of buildings
for health facilities after a more rigorous assessment of the existing network of health
facilities and their capacities, giving due consideration to geography and the size of the
concerned catchment population.
Of the total estimated budgetary needs of NPR
14.7 billion for recovery and reconstruction, the
percentage allocation in successive years, starting
from the current FY 2014-2015 to 2019-2020 is
1 percent, 17.3 percent, 22.6 percent, 20.1 percent, 19.6 percent and 19.5 percent, respectively.
Implementation Arrangements: Recovery and
reconstruction of the sector will be guided by a
Central Coordination Committee for Recovery
and Reconstruction led by MoHP and will include development partners. Based on the finalized implementation plans, budgets will be allocated to districts on the basis of identified needs
and resource availability. While major infrastructure and equipment, routine drugs and supplies
as well as major human resources will be provided by the central government, the remaining
activities will be accomplished by the concerned
districts based on guidelines to be developed by
MoHP.
Pre-Disaster Context and Baseline
MoHP has a network of 4,118 health facilities
ranging from central level specialized hospitals
to Health Posts and Urban Health Centres at the
Village Development Committee (VDC) and
Municipality (MNC) levels, respectively. Out of
the total public health facilities of the country, 19
percent are located in the 14 most-affected dis19
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
tricts and 23 percent are located in the 17 moderately affected districts, as summarized in Table
2.1 (Department of Health Services, 2014).
Similarly, there are more than 350 private sector
health facilities that cater to the health care demands of the population, a majority of them being in Kathmandu Valley and other urban cities.
percent of women who are pregnant at present reside in the highly and moderately affected
districts, respectively. The distribution of the
population by age group, including pregnant
women and expected live births, is presented in
the Table 2.2 below.
Key Macro Indicators
In addition, health services are delivered through
61 district Ayurvedic health centres, 14 zonal
Aushadhalayas and 214 Aushadhalayas that
come under the central government.
Consider Nepal’s on track progress with respect
to the targets of health-related millennium development goals (MDGs) as of 2013: the underfive mortality rate was 40 per 1000 live births
(Central Bureau of Statistics, 2014), a 73 percent decline from the 1990 figure of 142 per
1000 live births in 1990. The infant mortality
rate was 33 per 1000 live births (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2014), a 63 percent decrease
from the 1990 figure of 99 per 1000 live births.
As of 2014 the maternal mortality rate was 190
per 100,000 live births, down from 790 in 1996
(WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, The World Bank
and the United Nations Population Division,
2014). Moreover, in 2011, the total fertility rate
was 2.6 births per women, a significant decline
from 5 births per women in 1990 (Ministry of
Health and Population, New ERA, and ICF International Inc., 2011).
MoHP is responsible for the provision and regulation of health service delivery. In its latter role,
the Ministry regulates the sector through regional
Health Directorates, Medical Stores, Training
Centres and Drug Administration Offices; and
(Public) Health Offices at the district level.
Population Profile
The population profile of the country shows
that the highly and moderately affected districts
constitute 20 percent and 17 percent of the total population (Department of Health Services,
2014/15). Similarly, the population profile of
2014-2015 shows that 21.1 percent and 16.6
Table 2.1: Number of Public Health Facilities
District category
Highly-affected districts (14)
Hospitals
PHCCs
HPs
Total
26
44
723
793
Moderately-affected districts (17)
20
44
882
946
Other districts (44)
58
120
2,201
2,379
104
208
3,806
4,118
Total
Source: Annual Report 2070/71, DoHS
Table 2.2: Population Profile in Affected Districts District
Total
Population Population
Female
category
of 0-11
of 0-4
population
months
years
of 15-44
years
Expected
live birth
per month*
Pregnant women
experiencing
obstetric
complications
each month*
Highly affected (14)
5,633
116
535
1,449
93
1,285
10
1.5
Moderately
affected (17)
4,651
100
460
1,259
73
1,077
8
1.2
Others (44)
17,439
392
1,825
4,435
274
4,005
30
41
Total
27,723
609
2,820
7,144
440
6,366
48
43.7
Source: Health Management Information System, 2014/15, DoHS
*Estimates from MISP calculator based on total population
20
figures in thousands
Currently
Adolescent
pregnant
population
women* (10-19 years)
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
The percentage of households staying within 30
minutes of travel time to Health Posts (HPs),
Public Health Care Centres (PHCC)/public
hospitals and private clinics/hospitals is 61.8
percent, 33.6 percent and 53.4 percent of the
total, respectively (Central Bureau of Statistics,
2011). Similarly, the percentage of consultations
taking place for acute illnesses at public facilities
and private facilities (including pharmacies) is
37 percent and 63 percent of total consultations
(Central Bureau of Statistics, 2011).The Population Census of 2011 also shows that percentage of disability among males and females is 2.2
percent and 1.7 percent, respectively (Central
Bureau of Statistics, 2014).
The exemption of users’ fees at lower tiers of public health facilities, including free provision of
delivery services, have contributed to pro-poor
orientation of public health subsidies in Nepal.
However, the distribution of Human Resources
(HR) has been persistently inequitable. Out of a
32, 809 strong public health workforce in Nepal,
45 percent are concentrated in the Central Region whereas only 7 percent are in the Far-Western Region (Ministry of Health and Population,
2013). Per capita government expenditure on
health was NPR 827 in 2013-2014 (Ministry of
Finance, 2014) while the per capita total health
expenditure was estimated at US$ 39 for 2013
(World Health Organization, 2015).
Disaster Preparedness
In 2013, as part of its disaster preparedness effort MoHP set up a Health Emergency Operation Centre (HEOC) in its premises (with support from WHO and development partners),
which proved to be very helpful in managing
the health sector response in the aftermath
of the earthquake.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
kits, surgical kits and reproductive health kits)
were pre-positioned in strategic locations such
as the Department of Health Services (DoHS)
complex, Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital (TUTH) and Patan Hospital. MoHP also
engaged in building the capacities of staff with
regard to Mass Casualty Management (MCM),
Hospital Preparedness for Emergencies.
Similarly, over the last couple of years, MoHP initiated structural and non-structural assessment of
health facilities to minimize the risk of potential
disasters. Assessment of all fast track/priority hospitals, nine health facilities (one Primary Health
Care Centre [PHCC], one Health Post [HP] and
one sub-health post each selected from Kathmandu, Lalitpur and Bhaktapur districts) was also
carried out before the earthquake. Non-structural
mitigation, including retrofitting, was conducted
in TUTH, Patan Hospital, Bhaktapur Hospital
and Civil Service Hospital.
Protocols and Guidelines
In addition, standards for public health emergency management (mass casualty management
strategy), protocols, referral and early deployment
guidelines, and Rapid Response Team guidelines
were developed. These initiatives contributed to
the overall effectiveness of the health sector response in the aftermath of the earthquake. The
trauma protocols helped the international and
national medical teams use a common approach
for the treatment of the seriously injured. Further,
HEOC remained the command centre of MoHP
during the first few weeks following the earthquake. At the district level, the DHO represented
the health sector in the District Disaster Response
Committee (DDRC).
Post-Disaster Context
Emergency Management of Health
Care Needs
Damage to Health Infrastructure
and Casualties
Similarly, hub hospitals and satellite centres were
identified for the emergency management of
health care needs, and early deployment training
was provided to the hospital staff in Kathmandu
Valley. GIS mapping of health facilities was also
carried out which helped in checking the status
of health facilities after the earthquake. Medical
logistics (especially medical tents, inter-agency
emergency health kit, diarrhoeal treatment
A total of 446 public health facilities
were completely destroyed. Among them
were five hospitals, 12 Primary Health
Care Centres (PHCCs), 417 HPs and 12
others. In the private sector, including nongovernmental and community institutions,
16 health facilities were completely
destroyed. A total of 8,702 deaths and
22,303 injuries were reported, requiring an
21
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Hospital and Bir Hospital, both in Kathmandu)
were also severely damaged, causing an interruption in the delivery of health services. A total
of 701 public facility structures and 64 private
facilities reported partial damage. The status of
health facilities is presented in Table 3.
immediate response from the health sector for the
treatment of those injured and resumption of
regular health services.
The largest number of completely destroyed
health facilities was in Sindhupalchowk, Nuwakot and Gorkha districts. The damage status of
public health facilities was reported by the respective District (Public) Health Offices (DPHOs).
This was validated during the assessment team’s
field visit in the course of consultations with the
concerned focal persons at the district level. In
addition to the completely damaged 446 district
and sub-district public health facilities, certain
buildings of central hospitals (such as Maternity
Immediate Response
Immediately after the earthquake, MoHP organized a meeting to manage the health sector response and activated HEOC. A highlevel committee chaired by the Secretary,
MoHP, was formed on 25 April to oversee and
guide the overall health sector response in the
aftermath of the disaster.
Table 2.3: Damage Status of Health Facilities
Partially damaged
Completely damaged
Partially damaged
Completely damaged
Partially damaged
Completely damaged
Private
sector
facilities
Others
Bhaktapur
0
1
1
1
6
9
0
0
0
6
Dhading
0
1
1
1
33
12
1
1
3
5
Dolakha
1
1
0
1
33
16
1
0
3
2
Gorkha
0
1
1
2
35
24
6
6
3
3
Kathmandu
0
0
1
7
7
33
0
0
0
24
Kavre
0
1
1
2
32
50
0
1
0
2
Lalitpur
0
0
0
2
9
20
1
0
0
12
Makawanpur
0
0
1
2
14
13
0
0
3
6
Nuwakot
1
0
1
1
43
19
1
1
0
0
Okhaldhunga
0
0
0
0
17
17
0
0
0
0
Ramechhap
1
0
1
1
20
28
0
1
0
0
Rasuwa
1
0
0
1
14
3
1
0
1
2
Sindhuli
0
1
1
3
23
7
0
0
1
2
Sindhupalchowk
1
0
1
2
62
17
1
0
2
0
Total (14 districts)
5
6
10
26
348
268
12
10
16
64
Other districts
0
13
2
28
69
330
0
0
0
0
Central and regional level hospital/ administrative blocks
Total
5
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
39
12
54
417
598
12
10
16
64
Source: Field assessment for 14 districts;D(P)HO reporting for other districts; reporting by individual hospitals
and associations for the private sector.
22
HP
Partially damaged
Completely damaged
PHCC
Partially damaged
Completely damaged
Hospital
Districts
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
HEOC, situated in the premises of MoHP, coordinated with the affected districts for regular
updates on the effects of the earthquake and immediate needs which helped in making decisions
on the deployment of medical teams, supply of
drugs and other logistics. The six emergency hub
hospitals in Kathmandu Valley were activated to
provide medical services to the injured, including those referred from other districts. The high
level committee mobilized teams at the hubs
and sent officials to the highly-affected districts
to ensure that the response to immediate needs
was properly coordinated.
A central Information Management Unit was
set up under HEOC to compile health servicesrelated information and a hospital-based surveillance system was initiated. A toll free number
(1660 01 33 444) was also set up at HEOC
to help people access information about treatment and address their grievances. Similarly, a
customs release desk for medicines and equipment was established on 1 May 2015 at Tribhuvan International Airport to facilitate the speedy
release of drugs and medical equipment at the
customs office and channel other health-related
international support measures. From 1 May
onwards, HEOC started producing situation
update reports on a daily basis.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
trict (Public) Health Offices (D[P]HO), with
the support of partners, also conducted mobile
health camps, particularly focusing on a set of
priority life‐saving services. Public and private
facilities also extended their health services in
tents where facilities were completely damaged
or the existing space was not sufficient due to
the high patient flow. Besides the emphasis on
delivery of routine health services, dignity kits,
hygiene kits and reproductive health kits were
provided in the severely-affected districts. In addition to ensuring regular services at damaged
facilities, there is now a demand for other services such as psychosocial counselling with effective referral linkages.
Provision of Free Treatment
The Government of Nepal (GoN) made a decision to bear the cost of treatment of all the
people injured in the earthquake to ensure
timely treatment and save affected households
the additional financial burden. Hospitals were
instructed to provide free treatment to all the injured. However, there were some complaints at
HEOC that some private hospitals were charging a fee from earthquake victims. At the time
of preparation of this assessment, MoHP was
in the process of collecting data on the patients
treated by hospitals and reimbursing them for
providing those services free of charge.
Health Services Delivery and Access
Assessment of Situation and Medical Needs
Damage to infrastructure and assets disrupted
the delivery of services at a time when the demand for services increased due to the large
numbers of people getting injured. Eighteen
health workers and volunteers lost their lives
while 75 sustained injuries, adding to the challenges of delivering health services. Public health
and medical officials of MoHP were sent to the
highly-affected districts to help the district offices resume their health services.
Apart from the interruption of some services in
severely-affected HPs and PHCCs, basic and
emergency health services were being delivered.
Public and private health facilities that were not
damaged continued to provide routine health
services even as national and foreign medical
teams provided medical services in different
locations. In the most-affected districts, Dis-
Deployment of Medical Teams and Establishment of Field Hospitals
In addition to public health facilities and designated private hospitals, delivery of free services
was extended through temporarily established
field hospitals as well as national medical teams
(NMTs) and foreign medical teams (FMTs). By
2 June, a total of 20 temporary field hospitals, 47
national medical teams and 133 foreign medical teams (FMTs) had provided health services
in the affected districts. As shown in Table 2.4,
a total of 2,385 foreign medical personnel, including 1,068 doctors, were deployed, many of
them in hard-to-reach areas, with the necessary
logistics. Patients requiring care at a higher level
of health facility were air-lifted to Kathmandu.
As of 2 June 2015, a total of 25 FMTs were
providing health care services in the earthquakeaffected districts. Temporary field hospitals established by different foreign teams also played
23
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
an important role in delivering inpatient and
outpatient services. Other medical teams mainly
focused on emergency and outpatient treatment
services and referred the complicated cases to
the nearby hospitals. Different organizations
also provided logistics such as tents, medicines
and supplies, and health kits (dignity kit, reproductive health kit, hygiene kit).
Thus, foreign and national medical teams played
an important role in meeting the immediate
health care needs of the injured people. However, coordination with DHOs presented a challenge, particularly for teams in remote areas far
from the district offices. Table 2.5 shows the
cumulative data of health services delivery (outpatient and inpatient services, including surgeries and trauma cases) as reported by the health
facilities monitored in the 14 highly-affected
districts until 8 June 2015.
Trauma Management
A Casualty Triage Desk was also established at
the Tribhuvan International Airport on 29 April
2015 to accord priority to critical patients who
brought by air for the initial and basic symptomatic management before referring them to the appropriate higher-level hospitals. By 2 June 2015,
a total of 443 casualties had been referred by the
Casualty Triage Desk. Trauma cases were mainly
handled by the six emergency medical hubs of the
Kathmandu Valley and other hospitals.
Management of Dead Bodies
Of the 8,702 deaths reported by 02 June 2015,
45 percent were male and 55 percent were female. This shows that the female population was
more affected by the quake than the male population. Table 2.6 provides figures of deaths and
injuries by gender and district.
Timely identification and handing over the
bodily remains to the concerned families was
immensely important to minimize the stress and
emotional trauma of affected families. As of 2
June, 8,672 dead bodies had been handed over
to the next of kin.
Public Health Governance
District Capacity and Human
Resource Situation
The existing capacity of MoHP in general and
that of concerned DHOS were stretched to
ensure the resumption of disrupted health services delivery, coordinate with concerned partner agencies and stakeholders to manage the
increased flow of patients. DHOs coordinated
closely with DDRCs and Health, Water Sanitation & Hygiene, Nutrition and Protection clus-
Table 2.4: District-wise Deployment of Foreign Medical Teams
Districts
Number of
FMTs
Number of
doctors
Number of
nurses
Number of other
team members
Total team
members
Bhaktapur
11
41
52
120
213
Dhading
13
53
26
47
126
Dolakha
5
42
6
36
84
Gorkha
10
41
23
31
95
Kathmandu
26
452
62
258
772
Kavrepalanchowk
15
116
46
111
273
Lalitpur
10
78
10
110
198
Lamjung
1
5
0
5
Makawanpur
1
3
2
4
9
Nuwakot
9
43
32
70
145
Ramechhap
2
4
6
4
14
Rasuwa
4
24
6
30
Sindhupalchowk
Grand total
26
166
100
155
421
133
1,068
365
952
2,385
Note: Data as of 02 June. Source: HEOC, MoHP
24
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
ters, as well as FMTs and NMTs. MoHP also
provided the necessary budget to the districts to
procure urgently required items such as medicines, create power back-ups, and pay rent for
the buildings.
Public health facility staff was instructed to continue in their work stations and regularize the
delivery of health services. However, the assessment team noted that a significant percentage of
sanctioned posts of health workers are currently
vacant. For instance, out of the 306 sanctioned
posts for health workers in Sindhuli, only 185
were filled. This meant that many among the
available health workers had to work overtime to
manage the increased patient flow even though
their own shelter was damaged and family members were directly affected by the earthquake.
Health workers in districts reported that they
were overworked and sometimes not be able to
sufficiently cater to the surge in the patient flow.
Considering this, MoHP has already sent 58 additional medial doctors in the affected districts.
Motivating health workers possibly through
financial and incentives in kind, and keeping
their morale high is very crucial for better management of any disaster.
Information Management System
Routine information systems such as the health
management information system (HMIS) were
affected by the earthquake. Reporting forms and
formats were not to be found at some health
facilities. Some facilities even lost their service
register, making follow-up difficult, particularly
of those with communicable diseases such as tuberculosis. This will also add to the challenges in
effective management of health services in the
affected areas. The pattern of healthcare needs,
too, will vary across affected areas due to the mi-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
gration of people and high numbers of injuries.
The important health indicators that guide health
service delivery (e.g. expected number of pregnancies/deliveries) are expected to change because
of population migration from one catchment area
to another. These aspects will have to be taken
into account while planning the implementation
of activities at the district level.
Risk and Vulnerability
Hospital-based Post-earthquake
Surveillance System
Considering the risk of epidemic and disease
outbreak, HEOC established a hospital-based
post-earthquake surveillance system to cover
public and private hospitals in the 14 highly-affected districts. Initially, this surveillance system
covered 96 treatment sites, including 66 hospitals and temporary camps within the Kathmandu Valley and 30 hospitals and temporary camps
outside. From 28 May, the number of sentinel hospital sites was reduced to 38 in the 14
most-affected districts.
The surveillance system is important to ensure
that outbreaks are not missed. The number of
syndromes crossing the threshold level (doubling of the average of the previous seven days,
with a minimum of five cases) gives signals to
be in an alert position. Four outbreak-prone
conditions, namely acute respiratory illness,
watery diarrhoea, bloody diarrhoea, and fever
of unknown origin, were been routinely monitored by MoHP. No outbreaks were reported
as of 2 June 2015.
High-risk Population Groups
Access to health facilities has deteriorated in
remote areas. Pregnant women, women in a
Table 2.5: Total Number of Services Provided in the 14 Most-Affected Districts
Category
Public
Private
Community/NGO
Temporary hospital
Total
Outpatient
67,762
31,686
12,191
5,339
116,978
Inpatient
22,062
11,690
6,757
690
41,199
Major surgeries
1,739
916
485
81
3,221
Minor surgeries
2,630
802
361
310
4,103
Trauma cases
9,320
3,629
2,244
174
15,367
Note: Data as of 2 June as reported by health facilities being monitored.
Source: Health facility-based surveillance system, HEOC
25
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
mountainous areas, which run the risk of losing
contact with the district headquarters and even
from Kathmandu Valley due to road blockades
by landslides. Problems are also caused by power
cuts (directly affecting the cold chain, among
others); relative lack of safe drinking water and
hygiene facilities in the affected communities,
which increases the risk of waterborne diseases.
These scenarios imply that district offices and
the centre have to be prepared for rapid response
to manage possible future disasters along with
the maintenance of minimum stock of drugs
and other supplies in strategic locations.
post-natal condition and newborns are the single biggest vulnerable group considering their
usual needs of health care services. This assessment estimated around 30,000 deliveries and a
corresponding number of newborns who would
be directly affected in the three months following the earthquake. Any barrier in health services
delivery exposes the vulnerable people to further
risk. Similarly, those suffering from chronic conditions (TB, HIV, leprosy and non-communicable diseases), severely injured persons, and people
living with disabilities (PLWD), children, elderly,
and adolescents are also vulnerable to health risks
in such a post-disaster scenario, requiring special
attention in the recovery plan. With 1.94 percent
of disability (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2014),
total number of people with disability is estimated to be above 100,000 in the 14 most-affected
districts. The number of disabilities will increase
following the earthquake.
Damages and Losses
Estimating Damages and Losses of Infrastructure by Type
Based on the data reported by district offices
and field assessment in the 14 most-affected
districts, inventories of physical damage to
buildings, equipment, instruments, furniture,
and drugs and supplies were created. The damages of health facilities were calculated by applying the unit price of each type of health facility separately for complete and partial damage.
Health Facilities at Risk
As there is a risk of landslides and other threats
such as floods during the monsoon season,
some of the health facilities may also be exposed
to risks particularly those located in remote,
Table 2.6: District-wise Numbers of Loss of Lives and Injuries
District
Death
Male
Sindhupalchowk
Unknown
Total
Injured
1,497
1,943
0
3,440
2,101
Kathmandu
621
600
1
1,222
1,218
Nuwakot
459
627
0
1,086
662
Dhading
340
393
0
733
952
Rasuwa
287
310
0
597
7,949
Gorkha
213
230
0
443
1,179
Bhaktapur
118
215
0
333
3,052
Kavrepalanchowk
129
189
0
318
229
Lalitpur
67
107
0
174
1,051
Dolakha
84
85
1
170
61
Ramechhap
16
23
0
39
135
Makawanpur
16
17
0
33
771
Okhaldhunga
10
10
0
20
230
5
10
0
15
1,571
21,161
Sindhuli
Total of 14 districts
3,862
4,759
2
8,623
Moderately affected 17 districts
25
19
0
44
Other districts
12
23
0
35
3,899
4,801
2
8,702
Total
Source: DRR Portal, MoHA
26
Female
1,142
22,303
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Similarly, the amount of losses was estimated
under three broad categories, namely treatment
services to the injured, other service provisions
for the affected population, and governance and
risk management. The unit cost was defined in
consultation with respective technical experts
based on which the cost of damages and losses
was estimated a shown in Table 2.7.
The total value of disaster effects (damages and
losses) is estimated to be NPR 7.54 billion, 85.1
percent of which constitutes damages and 14.9
percent amount to losses. The public sector accounted for 81.5 percent of the disaster effects,
as there is a greater presence of public health facilities as compared to private facilities.
District-wise Estimation of Damages
and Losses
An attempt was made to disaggregate the value
of damages and losses by district, which is summarized in Table 2.8. The districts of Gorkha,
Sindhupalchowk and Dolakha are the hardest
hit in terms of the disaster effects of the earthquake, with a combined share of 20.3 percent of
the damages and losses, following central health
infrastructure which alone accounted for 32.8
percent of the total value of the disaster effects.
Impact on Development Goals
The effect on the health spectrum was quite diverse, leaving many with long-term problems.
Many people who have undergone major surgeries like amputation or severe spinal injury
will suffer from long- term disability, which
holds heavy financial implications for concerned
families and larger society. Deaths and rise in
disability will have a detrimental effect on people’s health, with many years lost in adjusting
to conditions of disability. Also, the earthquake,
followed by hundreds of aftershocks, has left a
significant proportion of the Nepali population
mentally traumatized to some degree.
The fact that basic health service like ante-natal
check-up, medical care and continuity of services
to those with communicable diseases, child and
neonatal health services and many other public health programmes will be affected for some
time to come, is bound to have a socio-economic
impact in the longer term. Deteriorating access
to health care may lead to a high morbidity and
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
mortality rate of diseases. The negative impact on
health is also expected due to the effect on the
nutritional status of the vulnerable population in
affected districts. The earthquake will cause mortality rates for the current year to increase and
life expectancy to decrease. However, the years
lost due to injuries and other longer term socioeconomic impacts of the earthquake in the health
and population sector have not been estimated in
terms of monetary value.
Recovery and Reconstruction
Strategy
MoHP formed a coordination committee for
the assessment of needs and planning for recovery and reconstruction of the health sector
under the chief of its Policy, Planning and International Cooperation Division. Based on the
information available from the districts, an initial set of necessary activities was defined before
the actual PDNA process was initiated. However, a concrete strategy for recovery and reconstruction was worked out following the PDNA
process that was carried out together with concerned DPHOs.
While the proper reconstruction of the sector
may take many years, the prime concern at present is to resume health services to address the
immediate health care needs of the population.
Considering this scenario, MoHP has adopted
a three-pillared strategy for recovery and reconstruction for the immediate term (until
mid-July 2015); the intermediate term (over FY
2015-2016) and medium term (FY 2015-2016
to 2019-2020).
The immediate-term strategy (until mid-July
2015) is to furnish the districts with necessary logistics and human resources within the
current fiscal year to resume essential health services, organize health camps and enable district
offices and facilities to deal with imminent risks
and vulnerabilities such as those resulting from
the monsoon, landslides and possible disease
outbreaks.
This phase also includes a technical assessment
of buildings, demolition of completely damaged
structures and quick repairs so that services can
be resumed. This strategy also includes managing the exit of medical teams and temporary
27
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 2.7: Estimates of Damages and Losses by Type
amount in npr million
Estimation of damages
Facilities completely destroyed
Hospitals and administrative buildings
Primary healthcare centres
Health posts
Others
Sub total
Public
Private
Total
2,102
760
2,862
120
120
1,877
1,877
45
45
4,144
760
Facilities partially destroyed
Hospitals and administrative buildings
Primary healthcare centres
Health posts
Others
Sub total
4,904
-
198
456
654
81
81
404
404
20
20
703
456
1,159
Equipment and logistics
Equipment
284
284
Office equipment and furniture
41
41
Medications and supplies destroyed
13
13
Other medical logistics and supplies( e.g. instruments, HMIS forms)
22
22
Sub total
Total damages
360
0
360
5,206
1,216
6,422
Estimation of Losses
Demolition and removal of debris
Hospitals
Primary healthcare centres
Health posts
Others
Sub total
17
16
33
2
0
2
42
0
42
3
0
3
63
16
79
121
0
121
13
0
13
Treatment services for injured
Reimbursement for treatment of seriously injured
Transportation for the referral to higher level of facilities
32
37
69
Payment for treatment services (user fee)
Revenue lost due to waiver of users fees (outpatient treatment)
120
125
245
Rehabilitation services for those having disability
155
0
155
67
0
67
Budget allocation by MoHP for management of service delivery
Psychosocial counselling
1
0
1
Referral for those needing rehabilitation services
1
0
1
509
162
671
Sub total
Other service provisions for affected population
MBBS doctor in highly affected areas
21
0
21
Establish five step down hospital and rehabilitation centres
28
0
28
Subside contribution to affected population for enrolment in health insurance
28
-
200
0
200
Establish geriatric ward in highly-affected hospitals
17
0
17
Temporary arrangement for health facility building (e.g. shed & rent)
10
0
10
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Estimation of damages
Facilities completely destroyed
Public
Private
Total
Resuming utility services at damaged facilities
10
0
10
Mobile services through mobile camps
10
0
10
Reproductive health and geriatric care
2
0
2
297
0
297
Sub total
Governance and risk management
-
Public awareness through media and IEC and BCC activities
5
0
5
Water and sanitation campaigns
7
0
7
Pre-positioning of medicine for monsoons and for outbreaks
3
0
3
Outbreak investigation and response team at the central level
1
0
1
48
0
48
3
0
3
Public health inspector - to monitor the situation and responses
Outbreak prevention and response at the district level
Monitoring and supervision
4
0
4
Information management (HMIS/LMIS tools, data recovery)
0
0
0
Support and mobilize DRRT (in 14+21 districts)
1
0
1
Monitoring and management of information, disease surveillance
2
0
2
Sub total
Total losses
Grand total (effects of earthquake)
74
0
74
944
178
1,122
6,150
1,394
7,544
Source: Estimation by Assessment Team based on data of damages and losses.
Table 2.8: Estimates of Damages and Losses by District
Districts
Amount in NPR million
Infrastructure
Medical
equipment
Office
equipment
Medicines &
supplies
Other
logistics
Others
losses
Total
Total
(%)
95
3
0
-
1
16
115
1.5
Dhading
365
2
2
-
0
61
431
5.7
Dolakha
384
7
3
2
1
66
465
6.2
Gorkha
396
16
12
4
3
72
503
6.7
Kathmandu
246
2
5
-
0
42
296
3.9
Kavre
223
8
1
0
2
39
272
3.6
Lalitpur
148
0
1
-
0
25
174
2.3
Makawanpur
275
-
-
-
-
46
320
4.2
Nuwakot
279
2
3
0
1
47
332
4.4
Bhaktapur
Okhaldhunga
90
0
0
1
0
15
106
1.4
Ramechhap
178
8
1
0
3
32
221
2.9
Rasuwa
178
3
3
1
2
31
218
2.9
Sindhuli
195
0
1
0
0
33
229
3.0
456
10
6
2
5
80
559
7.4
3,507
62
38
12
19
603
4,241
56.2
Sindhupalchowk
Total of 14 districts
Other districts
695
6
4
1
3
118
826
11.0
Central hospitals/ buildings
1,940
216
-
-
-
322
2,477
32.8
Grand Total
6,357
284
41
13
22
1,043
7,544
100
Source: Estimation by Assessment Team based on data of damages and losses.
29
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
field hospitals established in different locations
by FMTs to address the urgent needs of the
population. Priority will be given for the utilization of available local resources and the budget
received for disaster risk reduction (DRR).
More specifically, the demolition of damaged
buildings, temporary arrangements for taking
sheds on rent, purchase of medical instruments
and office materials, resumption of utility services such as electricity, water, communication, and internet are to be accomplished by
mid-July 2015. Similarly, doctors would be deployed in needy districts, and medicines would
be kept in strategic locations for the monsoon,
possible disease outbreaks and disasters in the
near future.
Besides the existing structures and temporary
set-ups, health services will also be delivered
through mobile camps with a special focus
on reproductive health, psychosocial counselling and rehabilitation. Provision of treatment,
physiotherapy and peer counselling needs to be
included into plan and costing. Another immediate priority is the rehabilitation of birth centres most of which were damaged by the earthquake. At the central level, strengthening of
surveillance and response system and awareness
campaigns will be carried out.
The strategy for the intermediate term is to
replace the temporary provisions with shortterm arrangements to ensure the continuity of
service delivery and address the changing pattern of healthcare needs in the fiscal year 20152015. Continuing the demolition of remaining
damaged buildings, retrofitting and reinstituting health facilities by setting up pre-fabricated
structures are some of the key initiatives that
are earmarked for this phase. In specific terms,
25 percent of the fully damaged HPs and
PHCCs and hospitals will be constructed with
pre-fabricated materials to regularize services.
Based on the technical assessment of the buildings, the reconstruction process will also be
initiated for concrete infrastructure. Other activities such as purchase of medical equipment,
management of outbreak prevention and response and continuation of service delivery will
be carried out over the fiscal year 2015-2016.
30
While the first and second strategies aim to address the immediate and intermediate needs for
the recovery, the third, medium-term strategy
will focus mainly on the reconstruction of the
sector from a longer term perspective. In this
period (FY 2015-2016 to FY 2019-2020), the
existing network of health facilities and their capacity will be assessed in terms of the geographic
spread of needs and population size. Based on
this assessment, the plan for the medium-term
plan will be further refined to include the construction of new physical infrastructure for
health facilities, along with necessary equipment. Further, a comprehensive set of activities
for disaster preparedness, response mechanism
and governance structure are included under
this medium-term strategy.
During this phase, concrete buildings will be
constructed for HPs not constructed in prefabricated materials, and PHCC and hospitals.
Establishment of emergency health centres at the
zonal level and geriatric-friendly services in hospitals in the affected districts will also be considered during this phase. Following the principle of
building back better, reconstruction plans for the
medium-term will be built into the routine plans
and strategies of MoHP including in the five-year
health sector strategy that is being developed.
With the increased share of Persons with Disabilities (PLWD) as a result of earthquake, all
short, medium and long-term infrastructure for
health services will be disability friendly that
ensures access of medical services and health
facilities for PLWD.
Post-earthquake recovery also needs to address
the demand for mental health treatment and
psychosocial counselling and therefore needs
to be integrated into all short, medium and
long-term health strategies.
Recovery Plan and Budget
MoHP has developed a comprehensive plan
for immediate resumption of health services by
reconstructing damaged health facilities and,
where appropriate, expanding services to new
settlements through mobile camps. It includes
a package of services for targeted vulnerable
population groups, from pregnant mothers
and newborns to senior citizens, and additional services to meet urgent health needs such as
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Figure 21: Recovery and Reconstruction Strategy
Medium term (FY 2015-2016 to 2019-2020
Intermediate term (FY 2015-2016)
Immediate (by mid July 2015)
-Temporary structures for
damaged facilities
- Demolition of fully damaged HFs
-Provision of additional HR
-Repair of partial damages
-Pre-positioning of drugs and
supplies
- Setting up information
management system
- Continue surveillance system
mental health, and rehabilitation, among others. Through this plan the MoHP also seeks to
strengthen disease surveillance to protect communities from risk of outbreaks and disasters.
In the immediate plan, treatment of the injured
and resumption of health services are mainly
covered. In the intermediate plan, construction
of prefabricated structure, strengthening of services, repair and maintenance and disaster preparedness and governance systems are included.
Finally, the plan for the medium term mainly
consists of reconstruction of damaged facilities,
setting up of health emergency centres, purchase of land for selected HPs and other measures of disaster preparedness and service delivery. Recovery and reconstruction plan consist
of district and central-level activities, which are
summarized in Table 2.9 and Table 2.10.
The overall budgetary need for recovery and reconstruction is estimated at NPR 14.69 billion
out of which NPR 6.28 billion NPR is needed
for central-level activities and district-level activities require NPR 8.40 billion. The budgetary need estimated for recovery and reconstruction is almost double the value of damages and
losses. This is mainly because of the larger scale
of infrastructure that is being planned in view
of the increased size of the catchment popula-
-Repair and retrofitting of building
-Establishing pre-fabricated
structures
-Provision of longer term HR &
capacity building
-Provide shelter/rehab services
- Strengthen surveillance system
and improve quality of services
- Initiate process for reconstruction
of concrete infrastructure
-Assessment of existing health
facility networks and capacity
-Planning of health facilities based
on population and geographic
consideration
- Strengthening of health facility
networks and service delivery by
reconstructing as per the concept
of build back better
tion. Similarly, strengthening institutional capacity and disaster preparedness for the future
will also result in higher needs for recovery and
reconstruction. However, reconstruction and
associated activities are based on the prevailing
network of health facilities. Any major resettlement of population might have implications
for the number of health facilities and their
capacity, requiring a change in the estimate of
needs.
District-level Recovery and Reconstruction Needs
The district-level recovery and reconstruction plan and related budget are summarized
in Table 2.9. The total budgetary need for
district-level activities is estimated to be NPR
8.4 billion out of which the percentage shares
of needs for the immediate, intermediate and
medium terms are 1 percent, 13.7 percent and
85.3 percent, respectively.
Central-level Recovery and Reconstruction Needs
The Central-level recovery and reconstruction plan and associated budget are summarized in Table 2.10. The total budgetary
needs for central-level activities is estimated
at NPR 6.28 billion out of which the shares
for the immediate, intermediate and medium
term plans are 1.7 percent, 3.1 percent and
95.1 percent, respectively.
31
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Implementation Arrangements
Strategy for Implementation
Recovery and reconstruction of the health and
population sector will be guided by a Joint Coordination Committee for Health Sector Recovery and Reconstruction led by the chief of Policy,
Planning and International Cooperation Division of MoHP. It includes members of developTable 2.9: District-level Recovery and Reconstruction Needs
Activities
After the finalization of the implementation
plan, the budget will be allocated to the districts
keeping in mind identified needs and resource
availability. While major equipment and comAmount in NPR million
Estimated budget
Immediate (until mid-July, 2015)
Demolition of damaged buildings
50
Temporary arrangement of building & rent
10
Arrangement of utility services
10
Medical instruments and office materials
2
Pre-positioning of medicine for monsoons and possible outbreaks
3
Health services through camps
1
Reproductive health and geriatric care
2
Psychosocial counselling
1
Rehabilitation services
1
Outbreak prevention and response
3
Monitoring and supervision
3
Information management (HMIS/LMIS tools, data recovery)
0
Immediate need
Intermediate term (FY 2015/2016)
Construction of health facilities (prefab structure)
Repair and maintenance of facilities
Equipment and drugs
Health services through camps
Reproductive health and geriatric care
86
697
74
339
8
12
Psychosocial counselling
7
Rehabilitation services
6
Monitoring, supervision and public hearings
Intermediate-term need
Medium term(FY 2016/2017 to 2019/20)
Construction of health facilities (concrete structure)
Purchase of land for health facilities
8
1,150
6,944
227
Medium-term need
7,171
Total of district-level need
8,407
Note: Some of the activities reflected in the intermediate plans will also be continued beyond the one year period
Source: Estimation by the assessment team based on district assessment and activity plan
32
ment partners. The Committee will oversee the
standards and specifications for health infrastructure and will be responsible for the implementation of the recovery and reconstruction plan.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
mon supplies and major human resources will
be provided from the centre, the remaining
activities will be accomplished by the districts
based on a guideline to be developed by MoHP.
Year-wise Budget Implications
A tentative timeline of the implementation of
activities over the next five years is presented in
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 2.11. Recovery and reconstruction activities have already been initiated. Of the total estimated budgetary need of 14.69 billion NPR
for recovery and reconstruction, the percentage
allocation in successive years starting from the
current FY 2014-2015 to 2019-2020 is 1 percent, 17.3 percent, 22.6 percent, 20.1 percent,
19.6 percent and 19.5 percent, respectively.
Table 2.10:Central-level Recovery and Reconstruction Needs
Activities
Amount in NPR million
Estimated budget
Immediate term (until mid-July 2015)
Payment to hospitals for treatment
63
Doctor in the health facilities of highly affected areas
21
Data collection from hospitals and develop a treatment plan for injured
10
Strengthen the surveillance system
2
Support and mobilize rapid response team
0
Create public awareness through media and IEC and BCC activities
5
Outbreak investigation and response team
1
Water and sanitation campaign
7
Immediate need
109
Intermediate term (FY 2015/2016)
Public Health inspector - to monitor the situation and responses
48
Establish step down hospital and rehabilitation centres
28
Establish monitoring mechanism and systems
Strengthening HMIS - printing tools, distribution and training
Strengthen central surveillance unit
1
14
2
Human resources for Health Emergency Operation Centre (HEOC)
50
Maintain minimum level of logistics requirement at different levels
0
Establishment of two-tier M & E mechanism
5
Strengthen information management for disaster preparedness
Demolition of central level hospital and administrative blocks
Retrofitting of partially damaged hospital and administrative blocks
Intermediate term need
1
12
36
197
Medium term(FY 2016/2017 to 2019/20)
Contribution for affected families for their enrolment in insurance
Establish geriatric ward in highly affected hospitals
200
17
Reconstruction of central hospitals
3,750
Reconstruction of regional hospitals
1,200
Reconstruction of administrative buildings
180
Retrofitting of partially damaged building
560
Establishment of 9 Richter seismic resistance emergency centre at zonal level
70
Medium-term need
5,977
Total of central-level need
6,283
Note: Some of the activities reflected in intermediate plans will also be continued beyond one year period
Source: EstimationbyAssessment Team based on district assessment and activity plan
33
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Assessment Methodology
needs as per the provided templates. Collected
information and field observations were shared
by each of field team on 28 May.
Scope of Assessment
Following the PDNA orientation, a working
team was formed at the central level, led by Dr.
Yagya Bahadur Kharki, honourable Member of
the National Planning Commission (NPC). The
central-level working team drafted the scope of
work, working timeline, assessment tools for
the assessment of infrastructure, service delivery, governance and risks as well as the planning
template for recovery and reconstruction. Assessment tools mainly covered three aspects of
work: validation of data already compiled at the
centre, collection of additional information on
the physical damage and its effects, and identification of recovery and reconstruction needs.
Field Visit in 14 Districts
Fourteen teams were formed for each of the 14
most-affected districts. These teams were led by
senior officials of MoHP and co-facilitated by
representatives of partner agencies. An orientation session was organized for the field teams
on 23 May following which the teams were dispatched to the field on 24, where they worked
until 27 May. The field assessment teams consulted with the D(P)HO officials, health facility
staff as well as other key stakeholders and collected information on the status of damages and
Data Compilation, Cleaning and Analysis
While the field teams were compiling data from
the districts, the central team started drafting
the assessment report based on the secondary
data that was already available. All the data collected from the districts was compiled, cleaned
and analyzed to produce the summary tables.
Estimation Approach and Assumptions
Overall estimates of the damages and losses
consist of the replacement cost of fully as well
as partially damaged buildings, equipment and
other logistics plus losses incurred as an effect
of earthquake in terms of cost of treatment and
management of response of the health and population sector. Estimation of the damages has been
disaggregated by the level of health facilities (i.e.
HP, PHCC, district hospitals and central hospitals in the public sector as well as private sector
hospitals) and by district. In consultation with
private sector service providers and data reported
by hospital associations and individual hospitals,
an estimate of the damages in the private sector
was arrived at. Field assessment data pertaining
to the 14 severely- affected districts was used as a
reference for the estimation of damages and losses
Table 2.11: Year-wise Budgetary Needs for Recovery and Reconstruction
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
2018/2019
2019/2020
Total
109
447
1,694
1,350
1,350
1,333
6,283
Centre
District
Total
Total (%)
42
2,094
1,620
1,596
1,528
1,528
8,407
152
2,541
3,314
2,946
2,878
2,860
14,690
1.0
17.3
22.6
20.1
19.6
19.5
100.0
Source: Estimation by Assessment Team based on district assessment and activity plan
Table 2.12: Unit Cost for the Estimation of Damages of Infrastructure
Unit cost
34
Amount in NPR
Demolition cost
Value of building
Partial damage
HP
100,000
4,500,000
675,000
PHCC
150,000
10,000,000
1,500,000
District hospital
1,000,000
47,500,000
7,125,000
Central hospital block
1,500,000
35,000,000
5,250,000
Private facilities
1,000,000
47,500,000
7,125,000
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
in other districts in addition to reported data by
the respective districts. Unit price, defined in consultation with technical experts, was applied to
estimate the damages, losses and reconstruction
of buildings (see Table 2.12).
However there are certain limitations in the estimation of damages, losses and needs. Firstly,
years of life lost due to premature death, socioeconomic impact of disability and other longer
term impacts in society have not been included
in the estimation of losses due to the complicated methodology involved. Secondly, losses
incurred in terms of health workers not being
able to work due to the disaster remain unaccounted for as reliable information was not
available for such estimation. Thirdly, information on damages as of 9 June 2015 are only
captured in the estimation of the damages and
losses. Fourthly, the recovery and reconstruction plan covers only the public sector and estimates of budgetary need are at current market
price without considering inflation in the years
to come. Due to these limitations, the overall
volume of damage and losses and budgetary
needs for recovery and reconstruction may
have been underestimated.
The estimates of the damages and losses as well
as recovery and reconstruction needs were discussed within MoHP and with NPC and the
PDNA secretariat in different rounds. The preliminary estimates of damages, losses and needs
were refined based on the suggestions received.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Finally, a draft report was produced, discussed
and finalized based on the feedback received.
References
Central Bureau of Statistics. (2011). Nepal Living Standard Survey 2010-2011. Kathmandu: Central Bureau of
Statistics.
Central Bureau of Statistics. (2014). Nepal Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2014 Key Findings. Kathmandu.
Central Bureau of Statistics. (2014). Population Monograph of Nepal 2014, Volume 2. Kathmandu: Central
Bureau of Statistics.
Department of Health Services. (2014). Annual Report
2070/71. Kathmandu: Department of Health Services.
Department of Health Services. (2014-2015). Estimated
Target Population Fiscal Year 2071/72 (2014/2015).
Kathmandu: Management Division, Department of
Health Services.
Ministry of Finance. (2014). Estimates of Expenditure
for FY 2014/15 (Red Book). Kathmandu: Ministry of
Finance.
Ministry of Health and Population. (2013). Human Resources for Health Nepal Country Profile. Kathmandu.
Ministry of Health and Population, New ERA, and
ICF International Inc. (2011). Nepal Demographic and
Health Survey.
Ministry of Home Affairs. (2015). Incident Report.
Kathmandu: Ministry of Home Affairs.
WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, The World Bank and the
United Nations Population Division. (2014). Trends in
Maternal Mortality: 1990 to 2013. Geneva: WHO.
World Health Organization. (2015). Global Health Expenditure Database. Geneva: WHO.
35
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
36
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
3. Nutrition
Summary
Undernutrition has been a longstanding problem in Nepal. The key indicators of child undernutrition such as stunted growth and wasting currently stand at 37.5 percent and 11.3
percent respectively at the national level. The
most recently available pre-earthquake data collated from the 2014 Multiple Indicator Cluster
Survey (MICS) and the 2014 Small Area Estimation (SAE) indicates a high rate of child undernutrition in the affected districts. Infant and
Young Child Feeding (IYCF) practices were also
found to be sub-optimal in those districts.
Given its cross-cutting nature, the nutrition sector does not have a separate infrastructure to operate nutrition programmes. Nutrition-specific
interventions are provided through the health
facilities and community-based extension services provided by Female Community Health
Volunteers (FCHVs). Nutrition-sensitive interventions are provided through related sectors
such as education, agriculture, and water, sanitation and hygiene. Hence, the damage caused by
the earthquake to these sectors is bound to have
an impact on nutrition levels as well.
A post-earthquake assessment found that food
consumption practices have worsened in the
affected districts compared with the levels recorded in the pre-earthquake assessment data.
This will directly impact the nutritional status
of the population, especially children under the
age of five, and pregnant and lactating women
who constitute the primary vulnerable groups
as far as undernutrition is concerned. Around
250,000 children from the ages of six months to
59 months, and 135,000 pregnant and lactating
women are estimated to have been affected by
the earthquake in the 14 most-affected districts.
As of now, there are no first hand statistics on
the impact of the earthquake on the nutritional
levels of the affected population in Nepal. Experiences from other countries show that underlying factors such as food insecurity, poor quality
of drinking water, sanitation and hygiene as well
9
as poor caring practices and disease outbreaks
inevitably have a gradual impact on the nutritional status of a disaster-affected. Hence, the
immediate concern is to prevent the deterioration of nutritional levels among the affected
population, with a particular focus on pregnant
and lactating women as well as young children
as these sections have specific nutritional needs.
Recovery and reconstruction activities have been
proposed to address immediate as well as longerterm needs. Supplementary food assistance and
Multiple Micronutrient Powder (MNP) supplementation has been planned for vulnerable sections in the initial year. These activities will take
place in conjunction with routine nutrition services provided by the health system, homestead
food production, enhanced education and counselling on optimal Maternal Infant and Young
Child Nutrition (MIYCN), management of
severe acute malnutrition (SAM), promotion of
efforts to increase production and utilize nutrient-rich agriculture, including livestock products, and capacity enhancement, all of which will
continue as measures for the medium as well as
long term. Nutrition assessments to monitor and
guide the interventions have also been planned.
The total recovery needs are estimated to be NPR
5,036 million (US$ 50.4 million).
The overall recovery strategy will be aligned with
Nepal’s Multi-sector Nutrition Plan (MSNP)
through multi-sector, multi-stakeholder and
multi-level coordination and collaboration.
Pre-Disaster Context and
Baseline
A Persistent Problem
Undernutrition has been a persistent problem
in Nepal, particularly amongst children under
the age of five years, and pregnant and lactating women. The 2014 MICS provides the latest statistics on child undernutrition which put
the rates of stunted growth, underweight and
wasting at37.5 percent, 30.1 percent and 11.3
percent, respectively.9
Government of Nepal, National Planning Commission (NPC) Secretariat, Central Bureau of Statistics and UNICEF (2015.)
Nepal Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2014, Key Findings and Tables.
37
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Figure 3.1 shows a comparison of the findings of
MICS with the situation five and 10 years ago as
recorded in the 2011 Nepal Demographic and
Health Survey (NDHS)10 and 200611. Though
the prevalence of stunting seems to be declining, it is still considered very high according to
the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Categorization of the Public Health Significance of
Undernutrition Indicators. In the past five years,
the prevalence of underweight (a Millennium
Development Goal indicator for nutrition) and
wasting have increased.
MICS did not collect information on the micronutrient or nutrition status of women. However,
the high rate of anaemia (48 percent among pregnant women as recorded in the 2011 NDHS) is
a pointer to the widespread poor maternal nutrition status in Nepal. The same survey also found
that 46 percent of children from the age of six
months to 59 months were anaemic, the figure
rising to almost 70 percent amongst children
from the ages of six months to 23 months. The
survey also shows that nearly a quarter of children
(24.2 percent) are born with low birth weight.
Table 3.1 provides a summary of key nutrition
indicators taken from MICS as baseline information of the situation prior to the earthquake.
A recently released SAE of undernutrition
(2014)12, based on the 2011 NDHS and the
2011 Census, fills the paucity of data at district and sub-district level. Figures 3.2, 3.3
and 3.4 show a comparison of data from the
two sources for stunting, wasting and severe
wasting prevailing in the 14 districts that were
subsequently most affected by the disaster.
Overall, the findings of MICS are lower than
the estimation of SAE except for the indicator
of prevalence of severe wasting. It can be seen
from the graphs that stunting, which reflects
chronic undernutrition, follows the usual pattern seen in Nepal of being the highest in the
mountain areas. The three mountain districts of
Dolakha, Rasuwa and Sindhupalchowk have the
highest child stunting rates. Wasting was found
to be higher than 5 percent in all districts by
the MICS and higher than 7 percent in all districts by the SAE. Moreover, both studies found
the wasting rates above 10 percent in the districts of Makawanpur, Nuwakot, Sindhuli and
Sindhupalchowk. The MICS found alarmingly
high levels of severe wasting, above or almost 4
percent in all central hill districts, Okhaldhunga
and Gorkha.
Figure 3.1: Child Undernutrition Rates (%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
NDHS 2006
Stunting
10
11
12
38
NDHS 2011
Underweight
MICS 2014
Wasting
Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (2011)
Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (2006)
Haslett, S., Jones, G., Isidro, M., and Sefton, A. (2014) Small Area Estimation of Food Insecurity and Undernutrition in Nepal, Central Bureau of Statistics, National
Planning Commision’s Secretariat, World Food Programme, UNICEF and World Bank, Kathmandu, Nepal, December 2014.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 3.1: Summary of Key Nutrition Indicators in the 14 Severely-affected Districts before the Earthquake, 2014 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS)
S.
N.
District
Eco-dev
region
1
Bhaktapur
2
Dhading
3
Kathmandu
4
Kavrepalanchowk
5
Lalitpur
6
Makawanpur
7
Nuwakot
8
Ramechhap
9
Sindhuli
10
Dolakha
11
Rasuwa
12
Sindhupalchowk
13
14
Low
birth
weight
(%)
Anthropometry, children 0-59 months
(%)
Infant and young child feeding (iycf)
(%)
Stunting
below
-2SD
Severe
stunting
below
-3SD
Wasting
below
-2SD
Severe
wasting
below
-3SD
Initial bf
within
an hour
of birth
Exclusive
BF
Minimum
acceptable
diet
Central
Hill
23.7
27.7
11.5
5.9
4.4
45.6
54.3
38.6
Cental
Mountain
21.0
36.6
16.4
7.3
1.2
74.6
38.9
20.3
Okhaldhunga
Eastern
Hill
26.6
26.9
9.9
10.8
4.2
43.9
35.5
46.8
Gorkha
Western
Hill
23.3
37.6
12.9
7.4
3.8
45.3
68.9
41.5
Source: MICS, 2014
Figure 3.2: Stunting Prevalence (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
rk h
a
Go
a
Ok
ha
ld
hu
ng
ho
wk
alc
wa
Sin
dh
up
su
Ra
ha
lak
Do
uli
dh
Sin
p
ch
ha
me
r
ot
Ra
Nu
wa
k
ka
wa
np
u
ur
litp
Ma
lan
pa
Ka
vre
MICS 2014
La
ch
ow
k
u
nd
ma
ing
Ka
th
ad
Dh
Bh
ak
tap
ur
0
SAE 2014*
* Data sources: NDHS 2011 and Population Census 2011
39
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Figure 3.3: Wasting Prevalence (%)
15
10
5
a
rk h
Go
ga
un
Ok
ha
alc
up
dh
Sin
MICS 2014
ldh
ho
wk
ha
Do
lak
wa
su
uli
dh
Ra
me
Ra
Sin
ch
ha
p
ot
wa
k
kw
an
Ma
Nu
pu
r
ur
litp
ch
lan
Ka
vre
pa
Ka
th
La
ow
k
u
ma
nd
ing
ad
Dh
Bh
ak
tap
ur
0
SAE 2014*
* Data sources: NDHS 2011 and Population Census 2011
Figure 3.4: Severe Wasting Prevalence (%)
5
4
3
2
1
MICS 2014
SAE 2014*
* Data sources: NDHS 2011 and Population Census 2011
40
Ok
a
rk h
Go
ha
ld
hu
ng
a
ho
wk
alc
wa
su
Ra
ha
lak
Do
dh
uli
Sin
Sin
dh
up
Ra
me
ch
ha
p
ot
Nu
wa
k
r
Ma
kw
an
pu
ur
tp
ch
lan
pa
La
li
ow
k
u
nd
Ka
vre
Ka
th
ma
ing
ad
Dh
Bh
ak
tap
ur
0
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Infant and Young Child Feeding (IYCF) practices, as demonstrated by MICS show that half
of the children were initiated into breastfeeding
within an hour of birth and half of the infants
were breastfed exclusively during the first six
months of life. Less than 40 percent of children
were able to meet the recommended minimum
acceptable diet which was even lower at 20 percent in the case of the three central hill districts
of Dolakha, Rasuwa and Sindhupalchowk.
Post-Disaster Context
As mentioned earlier, the nutrition sector does
not have a separate infrastructure to operate
nutrition programmes. Nutrition-specific interventions are provided through regular health facilities and community-based extension services
provided by FCHVs. According to available figures, eight health workers and 10 FCHVs lost
their lives in the earthquake, 68 health workers
and seven FCHVs were injured, and two health
workers were reported missing13. Nearly 80 percent of public health facilities are damaged and
many of the government offices providing social
services have been destroyed14. While a relatively
small number of FCHVs died or were injured,
many of them are under a great deal of stress and
may not be able to function as before. All these
developments are bound to have a negative impact on nutrition services. Primary health care
and outreach clinics are still functional in most
of the places.
There are approximately 73,000 pregnant women and 62,000 lactating women in the earthquake-affected areas. During the field visit the
assessment team observed that many of these
women are suffering from reduced food intake
and dietary diversity and the trauma caused by
the earthquake, along with the attendant disruptions caused in their lives. This is likely to
affect not only their own nutritional status but
also impact their ability to continue to exclusively breastfeed their children. Unsolicited distribution of infant formula for children under
the age of five years was observed in Gorkha and
Sindhupalchowk districts after the earthquake,
which further threatens breastfeeding practices.
In response to this, as an important part of the
immediate response plan, the Nutrition Cluster has accorded priority to creating designated
HEOC Report, May 29, 2015
HEOC Report, May 29,2015
15
WASH Sector Report, June 2015
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
spaces where mothers can access safe areas to
breastfeed, rest, eat and receive skilled counselling and targeted advice about breastfeeding and
nutrition.
Many of the water supply systems are affected
and toilets are destroyed at the household level.15 It is estimated that half the population
in the affected districts need support to meet
their needs for water, sanitation and hygiene. In
areas where the water system was severely damaged, women have had to walk long distances
(one hour to three hours away) to collect water
from alternate sources. The collection of water
for household purposes and for livestock, incurs
time, energy and childcare costs. The nutritional status can be negatively impacted by reduced
access to sanitation, possible increase in open
defecation, reduced production of vegetables
and other nutritious food as a result of damaged irrigation systems, and increased energy
expended by walking longer distances for the
task of water collection.
A majority of schools and Early Childhood Development (ECD) centres, including their water
and sanitation facilities, have been damaged in
the 14 most-affected districts. The effect on the
education sector is likely to have a direct and
indirect effect on the nutrition sector as well.
Damaged water and sanitation facilities may be
linked to outbreaks of diseases such as diarrhoea
which can negatively impact of the nutritional
status of children.
The provision of mid-day meals supports the nutritional needs of children in pre-school (three
to five years of age) and primary school (six to
10 years of age). In addition to supporting the
nutritional needs of school-going children, midday meals also reduce the food requirement at
the household level, helping retain children in
schools. This has a longer-term benefit on nutrition as well, as there is a direct correlation between education attainment of a mother and her
child’s nutritional status.
Emergency Nutrition Response
To prevent malnutrition, District Health Offices
(DHOs), with the assistance of the District Level
Support Agency (DLSA), have already initiated
13
14
41
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
emergency nutrition response activities through
the approach of community management of
acute malnutrition (CMAM) and mother-baby
areas. These efforts include Infant and Young
Child Feeding (IYCF) counselling, monitoring the application of the code of breast milk
substitutes, and the establishment of Outpatient
Treatment Programmes (OTPs) in health facilities located in the affected districts. A blanket
supplementary feeding programme for pregnant
and lactating women and children between the
ages of six months and 23 months was implemented in June 2015.
Food Access
Regarding food access, a post-earthquake assessment of 1,010 households in 11 affected districts outside of Kathmandu Valley confirmed
widespread losses of household food stocks,
seeds, and agricultural tools, affecting food security prospects in the immediate as well as longer term16. Affected households have lost a total
estimated 52,000 metric tonnes (mt) of grain,
and 80 percent of households in the most foodinsecure areas reported losing their entire food
stocks. Pre-earthquake monitoring data shows
that all 627 VDCs in the affected districts were
classified as minimally food-insecure. Postearthquake data shows that 80 VDCs are now
severely food insecure, 277 VDCs are highly
food insecure, and 172 VDCs are moderately
food insecure, with the most severely affected
VDCs located in Gorkha, Sindhupalchowk,
Dhading, Dolakha, Rasuwa, Nuwakot and
Kavrepalanchowk17. It was observed that affected communities were provided externally aided
food items, some of which are less nutritious
than locally produced foods. It was also observed that many among the affected were more
interested in receiving such food donations
rather than consuming their own local products.
Nineteen percent of households reported poor
food consumption practices as compared to 7.6
percent households prior to the earthquake. In
addition, 35 percent of households are limiting
their food intake by reducing their meal portion
or number of meals as a coping strategy.
Regarding incomes, households dependent on
daily labour and trade are among the most affected with over two-thirds reporting income losses
of over 30 percent since the earthquake. People
reported a decrease in household expenditures by
an average of 13 percent, with a decrease of 43
percent in the mountainous areas. These declines
match the reduced food consumption.
Markets are functional in less-affected areas and
quickly recovering along the seismic belt but
remain largely closed in the remote mountain
areas (only 5 percent of households are able to
find cereals and pulses in the nearest market).
Prices of staple foods are expected to rise in the
coming months due to higher transport costs
with the arrival of the monsoon and decline in
international relief as well.
Damages and Losses
While the nutrition sector does not have a separate infrastructure on the basis of specific damages and losses can be calculated, it is possible
to arrive at a figure for affected sections of the
population who are vulnerable to undernutrition. Since the exact number of affected children
under the age of five years, pregnant women and
lactating women are not available per affected
district, an estimation has been made based on
two primary government sources: the number of
affected households have been sourced from the
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) portal (Ministry of Home Affairs’ [MoHA]), and the estimated target population from the Department
of Health Services ([DoHS], ‘Estimated Target
Population Fiscal Year 2071/72 [2014-2015])’.
Using the data available on the DRR portal,
the percentage of affected households was multiplied with the estimated target population
from DoHS to arrive at estimated numbers of
affected children less than two years (6 months
to 23 months), less than five years (six months
to 59 months), as well as pregnant and lactating women. The figures for estimated live births
were used to estimate the total number of affected lactating women (which refers to women
with children less than six months of age).
Nepal: A report on the food security impact of the 2015 earthquake. Assessment conducted by the Nepal Food Security Monitoring System (NeKSAP).
Food Security Cluster, May 2015.
17
DHS 2011 data and the resulting small area estimation report shows that these 7 districts have a pre-existing global acute malnutrition prevalence of 6.8% (Dolakha),
8.4% (Gorkha), 8.5% (Sindhupalchowk), 9% (Dhading), 9.3% (Rasuwa), 9.6% (Kavre), and 9.9% (Nuwakot).
16
42
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Disaster Effects and Impacts
The nutritional status of vulnerable populations
is not immediately affected due to a disaster.
However, a combination of underlying factors
(food insecurity, poor quality of water, sanitation, hygiene, and caring practices as well as disease outbreaks) will gradually have an impact.
As of now, there are no firsthand statistics on the
nutrition impact of the earthquake amongst the
affected population in Nepal. Experiences from
other countries show that in the month after a
natural disaster occurs, the likelihood of acute
illness, such as acute respiratory infections, diarrhoea and fever increase by 9-18 percent in children under the age of five.18
The negative impact of natural disasters on linear growth is also well documented in countries
such as China, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe.19 In the year after a natural disaster, the
likelihood of stunting increases by 7 percent and
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
the likelihood of full-immunization decreases
by 18 percent. Two years after experiencing the
shock of a disaster, women who were in the second and third trimester of pregnancy when the
disaster occurred would have children significantly shorter compared to women who did not
experience the shock.20 Furthermore, shocks can
also negatively impact maternal health, increasing mortality and low birth weight.21
Assessments by other sectors reported largescale losses of food stocks and agricultural assets,
household assets, disruption of water systems
and damage to sanitation facilities and health
infrastructure. Income that typically may have
been earmarked for the purchase of household
food may be redirected towards materials and
labour to rebuild homes, replace lost household
items or support the extended family. Food-related coping strategies, such as reducing the size
or number of meals consumed, was reported by
Table 3.2: Estimated Number of Affected Children under Five Years, and pregnant and lactating women
SN
District
Children <2
years*
Children
6-23 months
1
2
Children<
Children
5 years 6-59 months
Sindhupalchowk
11873
8810
28158
Kathmandu
73560
54686
35166
Pregnant
women
Lactating
women
25097
7351
6230
31371
8969
7606
3
Nuwakot
11379
8445
28312
25232
7380
6258
4
Dhading
14452
10723
28859
25705
7517
6375
5
Rasuwa
1850
1372
4199
3737
1113
944
6
Gorkha
11029
8163
22488
19977
6036
5116
7
Bhaktapur
12763
9465
12220
10875
3187
2702
8
Kavrepalanchowk
15499
11496
33449
29796
8765
7432
9
Lalitpur
19264
14315
10635
9485
2729
2314
10
Dolakha
7738
5740
20794
18519
5461
4632
11
Ramechhap
8302
6160
20251
18046
5302
4497
12
Makawanpur
18346
13632
16255
14501
4169
3536
13
Okhaldhunga
6433
4767
6102
5428
1629
1381
14
Sindhuli
13181
9794
12343
11013
3176
2693
225669
167568
279231
248783
72784
61715
Total
Source: MoHA DRR Portal and DOHS HMIS report 2014
* Also gives an estimation of the number of mothers breastfeeding children under two years of age
Datar A, Liu J, Linnemayr S, Stecher C. The Impact of Natural Disasters on Child Health and Investments in Rural India. Social science & medicine (1982).
2013;76(1):83-91. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.10.008.
19
IZA (2010) Do natural disasters affect human capital? An assessment based on existing empirical evidence. DP No. 5164
20
E. Frankenburg, J. Friedman, N. Ingwersen, & D. Thomas (2013). Child Height After a Natural Disaster.
21
J.K. Antilla – Hughes & S.M. Hsiang (2013). Destruction, Divestment and Death: Economic and Human Losses Following Environmental Disaster.
18
43
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
more than a third of households in the affected
areas (35 percent). Overall loss of income from
lost assets, savings and reduced opportunities to
be paid for daily labour, reduces the purchasing
power of families to provide quality meals in
sufficient quantity. Disrupted water systems and
sanitation facilities heighten the risk of disease
among affected populations. It is also possible
that increased financial strain on households
may promote increased workloads among family members, including pregnant and lactating
women, which could negatively impact a woman’s health during pregnancy and affect mothers’
caring practices with regard to their children.
Similarly, longer walks to collect water or other
household needs may have the same effect on
women’s health and nutritional status, reducing
the time available for child care.
Hence, the immediate concern is to prevent
a deterioration of the nutritional status of the
affected population with a particular focus on
pregnant and lactating women, and young children as this population has specific nutritional
needs. In addition, recovery efforts will also aim
to support the rehabilitation of systems and services that address underlying factors contributing to both acute and chronic malnutrition.
Research confirms that a child’s first 1,000 days,
from conception to the first two years of life, is
a critical period for growth and development.
Challenges affecting optimal growth and development during this window have lifelong effects
on a child’s physical and cognitive growth. Inadequate access to nutritious food, safe and hygienic environments, quality health services and
caring practices may result in an increased risk of
morbidity and mortality in childhood, reduced
learning capacity and school performance, increased risk of obesity and non-communicable
diseases later in life and overall lower earning
potential and decreased work capacity22.
This is a unique opportunity for emergency response and development programmes to work
synergistically to improve nutrition among
women and children. Emergency response pro-
Maternal and Child Nutrition series. The Lancet. 2013.
22
44
grammes provide an important platform for nutrition and food security activities but the interventions are typically short-term and supply-driven,
such as therapeutic feeding, general food aid and
seed distribution. However, it is important to give
greater emphasis to addressing the root causes of
vulnerability and prevention of malnutrition,
which is what recovery programmes should do.
Hence, it is advisable to orient all reconstruction
efforts towards a more sustainable approach that
addresses both immediate and underlying causes
of undernutrition through integrated agriculture
and other sectoral activities.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
Achieving nutrition and food security is a crosscutting goal that requires action from various sectors. Recognizing the need for a multi-sectoral
approach and for a strengthened multi-sectoral
policy guidance and coordination, Nepal endorsed a Multi-Sector Nutrition Plan (MSNP) in
2012. A High Level National Nutrition and Food
Security Steering Committee (HLNFSSC), has
been established at the National Planning Commission (NPC), and coordination architecture
has also been set up. Existing policies on nutrition specific and nutrition sensitive programmes
and interventions will be strengthened with the
involvement of all relevant sectors and stakeholders. All nutrition service providers will work with
the existing nutrition architecture at the district
and national level.
Post-earthquake nutrition activities will
include the following:
1.Continuation of services to prevent and
treat acute malnutrition alongside increased
efforts to improve systems and services contributing to longer-term nutritional gains,
focusing on a multi-sectoral approach.
2.External support should be built on local
food and nutrition practices.
3. Rural, urban and slum areas need to be covered by government and non-government
programmes/interventions, and the existing nutrition and food security programmes
in the 14 most-affected districts should be
further strengthened.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
4.
Coordination (multi-sector, multi-stakeholders and multi-level) with various sectors
and stakeholders should be strengthened and
ensured at all levels for effective implementation of nutrition interventions.
5.Overall, the post-disaster nutrition strategy should complement the knowledge and
practices that the communities already possess, and be implemented in the spirit of
strengthening local resilience.
The nutrition activities for recovery have been
identified for the short and medium term and
are aimed at all pregnant and lactating women
and children under five years. Special efforts
will be made to work through community leaders and Health Facility Management Committee as well as FCHVs to ensure that the most
vulnerable groups (Dalits and female- headed
households, among others) are included. The
suggested list of activities in this report is only
tentative, based on the limited information
available. Hence, the recommendations/activities will be updated to reflect the enhanced coordination among relevant sectors.
Activities in the Medium and Long Term
The medium and long-term activities, to be continued beyond one year, are as follows:
• Promote the production and utilization of indigenous crops (such as millet, buckwheat and
amaranth) as well as protein and micronutrient rich crops (legumes, vegetables, fruits,
livestock products (including meat, fish, milk
and eggs) through the agriculture sector.
• Intensify homestead food production
including poultry amongst existing and
returnee households.
• Continue to monitoring compliance with
Nepal Breast Milk Substitute (BMS) Act &
Regulation, the law regulating sale and distribution of breast milk substitutes.
• Continue to implement strategies to ensure
adequate micronutrient intake among the affected population (may include promotion of
micronutrient rich foods, expanding fortification initiatives and ongoing provision of micronutrient supplementation based on need).
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
• Continue the intensified promotion of
optimal MIYCN and hygiene.
• Continue the management of severe acute
malnutrition in all districts based on need.
• Ensure that nutrition topics are covered in
training/on-site coaching of new FCVHs
and in refresher training for existing FCHVs
Implementation Arrangements
The measures listed above will be implemented
by the sectoral ministries ensuring intra and inter-sectoral coordination within the government
system. For instance, food production activities
will be led by the agriculture sector, with strong
collaboration, advocacy and promotion activities on the part of the health sector. The health
sector will conduct child care activities in close
collaboration with the sectors of education, and
women, children and social welfare Resources
will be mobilized through effective partnership
with development partners.
Assessment Methodology
This assessment is part of the broader PDNA
conducted for all sectors under the overall leadership of NPC. It is a joint exercise
of the Government and development partners.
It has employed a combination of qualitative
and quantitative tools from primary as well
as secondary sources.
On 24 May 2015, NPC deployed four teams
to Gorkha, Dhading, Sindhuli, Ramechhap, Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Sindhupalchowk and Kavrepalanchowk to verify the available baseline information and collect relevant information on the
nutrition needs of affected pregnant and lactating women, and children under five. The team
selected VDCs, sites and respondents from the
categories mentioned above and employed the
methods listed below:
• Collection of basic information from the
Nepal Government Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR Portal) (http://drrportal.gov.
np) on affected households and other nutrition-related information from MICS,
SAE, Health Management and Information
45
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
• Observation visits to the affected VDCs and
wards, health facilities and outpatient treatment programme centres.
• An analysis of secondary data from the 2014
MICS, 2011 NDHS and 2014 SAE and assessments from other sectors provided key
information on both the pre and post-disaster contexts related to nutrition.
System (HMIS) and Logistic Management
and Information System (LMIS).
• Consultative meetings with the district
line agencies and health workers, FCHVs
and volunteers.
• Focused group discussions with pregnant, lactating women as well as other
community members.
Table 3.3: Proposed Nutrition Interventions and Tentative Cost Estimates (Short-term Activities for up to One Year)
Intervention
Quantity
Unit
Description
Cost
per Unit
(NPR)
Total
(NPR)
Total (US$)
Exchange
rate: 1 US$
= 100 NPR
Assumptions
Short-term Activities
Supplementary food assistance
Provide assistance to increase access to supplementary food to children aged 6 months
to 59 months, pregnant and lactating women,
through health facilities to prevent deterioration of nutritional status as well as increase
health service utilization, including enhanced
nutrition counselling. The assistance can be
in the form of cash, vouchers or food (e.g.
fortified blended food, locally procured as
much as possible) and provided for up to one
year. Assessments such as those produced by
or in collaboration with Nepal Food Security
Monitoring System (NeKSAP) on the impact
of earthquake on food security will be used to
guide the form of assistance provided to the
different affected areas.
Local producers of fortified supplementary food
will be able to meet the
requirements of the target
population requiring foodbased assistance; market
assessments and necessary
banking infrastructure will
support cash-based assistance in other affected
areas. Weather or other
environmental factors will
not prevent the delivery of
assistance.
385 000
Person
8000
3 080 000 000
30 800 000
Promote the production and utilization of
indigenous crops, rich in macro and micronutrients, of plant and animal origin *
400 000
households 100
40 000 000
400 000
Initiate homestead food production including poultry amongst existing and returnee
households**
400 000
households
4000
1 600 000 000
16 000 000
279 231
children
under five
years
100
27 923 100
279 231
10 000 000
100 000
Promotion of production and utilization of
local foods
Nutrient-rich foods will be
available and accessible to
promote for consumption.
Maternal Infant and Young Child Nutrition
(MIYCN)
Promote optimal child development through
implementation of child care activities, in
coordination with Ministry of Women Children
and Social Welfare (MoWCSW)
Intensify the promotion of optimal Maternal
Infant and Young Child Nutrition (MIYCN)
and hygiene, including Behaviour Change
Communication (BCC). [Breastfeeding and
complementary feeding]
46
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Intervention
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Quantity
Unit
Description
Cost
per Unit
(NPR)
Total
(NPR)
Total (US$)
Exchange
rate: 1 US$
= 100 NPR
14
Districts
1 000 000
14 000 000
140 000
10 000
children
under 5
years
15 000
150 000 000
1 500 000
Caseload of SAM patients
requires ongoing treatment services and commodities are available to
support this treatment.
5 000 000
50 000
Sufficient supply of stock
is available and able to be
distributed in the affected
areas.
125 000
Child
500
62 500 000
625 000
Sufficient supply of stock is
available for distribution in
the affected areas.
14 000
FCHVs
500
7 000 000
70 000
Adequate staffing is available and environmental
conditions do not inhibit
training or onsite coaching
plans.
Conduct a rapid SMART or other nutrition
survey to obtain primary district level estimate
of nutrition situation in all 14 severely affected
districts
1
Survey
25 000
000
25 000 000
250 000
Adequate staffing is available and environmental
conditions do not inhibit
completion of the survey.
Regular monitoring of all nutrition activities
conducted in the affected districts
5 000 000
50 000
Adequate staffing is available and environmental
conditions do not inhibit
regular monitoring of activities.
Establish a nutrition surveillance mechanism
in 14 districts through health facilities
10 000 000
100 000
Total
5 036 423 100
50 364 231
Intensify monitoring of compliance and Nepal
Breast Milk Substitute (BMS) Act & Regulation
to ensure that unsolicited BMS is not distributed and used
Assumptions
Management of severe acute malnutrition
Establish and maintain management of severe
acute malnutrition (SAM), including preventive and treatment services
Micronutrient supplementation
Replenish the lost stock of micronutrient
supplements (Vitamin A, Iron Folic Acid and
deworming tablets as well as zinc tablets and
ORS for treatment of diarrhoea) in the health
facilities and provided to FCHVs
Provide Multiple Micronutrient Powder (MNP)
supplementation during the first year to children aged 6-59 months in areas where fortified supplementary food will not be provided.
Training/capacity enhancement
Ensure that nutrition topics are covered in the
training/on-site coaching of new FCVHs and in
refresher training for the existing FCHVs
Nutrition survey/assessment and monitoring
activities
* Production activities will be budgeted under the agriculture sector. Advocacy and promotional activities will be conducted by the nutrition sector in collaboration with health and other sectors.
** Based on the number of fully destroyed households excluding partially destroyed households. Furthermore, only 50 percent of the households have been taken for the four districts with high proportion of
urban areas (Kathmandu, Lalitpur,Bhaktapur and Kavre)
***Based on the SAM prevalence estimate of 2.6 percent from NDHS 2011 as the ongoing programmatic experience as well as field observations differ from the high Severe Wasting levels from MICS 2014
47
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
48
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
4. Education
Summary
The PDNA for the education sector is part of
the broader PDNA conducted for all sectors under the overall leadership of the National Planning Commission (NPC). It is a joint exercise of
the Government of Nepal (GoN) and development partners, and has been led by the Ministry
of Education (MoE).
The overall objective of this assessment is to
take stock of the damages and losses faced by
the sector and provide estimates of the recovery
and reconstruction needs using the principle of
building back better. The assessment covers the
entire sector, which includes early childhood
education and development (ECED), school
education (grades one to 12), technical and vocational education and training (TVET), higher
education, and non-formal education/life-long
learning. The damages and losses for the sector
are based on the data and information provided
to the MoE by the various subsectors—Department of Education (DoE) for ECED and school
education, Council for Technical Education
and Vocational Training (CTEVT) for TVET,
University Grants Commission for higher education, and Non-Formal Education Centre for
non-formal education/life-long learning (including community learning centres). Data on
damages and losses to public and institutional
libraries is also included. Additionally, the sector assessment team undertook field visits and
held consultations with representatives of all
central line agencies, including CTEVT and
University Grants Commission, representatives
of private schools, and various teacher organizations to understand the effects of the disaster
on the functioning of the education system and
to solicit their suggestions for potential recovery
strategies and interventions.
The net value of the total damages and losses
to the education sector is estimated at NPR
31,317.9 million (US$313.2 million) at predisaster prices. Of this, the damage to infra23
structure and physical assets is estimated at NPR
28,063.8million (US$ 280.6 million). Further,
the sector encountered losses of NPR 3,254.2
million (US$ 32.5 million). Overall, the public
sector suffered more in terms of damages and
losses when compared to private sector. Of the
total effect, 92 percent accrues to the public sector and only 8 percent to the private sector.
The total recovery and reconstruction needs
for the education sector for the next five years
(Fiscal Years 2015–2019) using the principle
of building back better is estimated at NPR
39,705.8 million (US$ 397.1 million), of which
the majority (91 percent) is needed for the recovery and reconstruction of the school subsector. The recovery strategies and specific short,
medium and long-term needs are described in
the main text.
Pre-Disaster Context
and Baseline
Sector Overview
Nepal’s education sector is one of the largest
government departments both in terms of size
of the population served and the annual government budgetary allocations. The sector consists
of pre-primary (ECED), school, Technical and
Vocational Education and Training (TVET) and
higher education subsectors. Table 4.1 below
provides a summary of the size of the various
subsectors.
School education comprises at least one year of
pre-primary/ECED, five years of primary, three
years of lower secondary, two years of secondary
and two years of higher secondary education.23
School education is offered through at least two
types of schools—public and private. With the
Seventh Amendment to the Education Act 1971
in 2001, all public schools are called ‘community’ schools and private schools ‘institutional’
schools. The majority of children attend public
schools; however, there has been a dramatic in-
The ongoing School Sector Reform Programme aims to restructure school education into eight years of basic and four years of secondary schooling.
This will require amendments to the Education Act.
49
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
crease in private education institutions in recent
years. At the secondary school level, about 15
percent of all children attend private schools,
and their presence increases to almost 27 percent
if higher secondary education is also included.
The vast majority of community schools receive
support from the government in the form of
teachers’ salaries, recurrent grants for school administration and management, student grants
for textbooks and scholarships, and grants for
construction of classrooms and toilets. However,
only very few private schools (those that operate
as trusts) are eligible to receive such grants. The
majority of private schools are registered as companies and operate through user fees
The TVET subsector includes school-based
technical schools (general schools with technical stream) as well as non-school-based technical institutions overseen by CTEVT, which has
21 constituent (public) and 400 affiliated (private) technical institutions that offer short-term,
technical school leaving certificate (TSLC) and
diploma courses. More than 90,000 people
graduate from these courses annually.
Higher education is offered through nine universities and four medical science academies, all of
which receive public funds in varying degrees. All
universities have constituent and affiliated colleges that are spread across the country. While curriculum and examinations for affiliated campuses
come under the jurisdiction of the affiliating university, affiliated campuses are independent vis-àvis financing and administration.
Affiliated campuses are further classified into community and private campuses.
Community campuses, which are not for profit,
are established through community initiatives
and resources and also receive some financial
support from the government, although levels of
support are significantly lower than for constituent campuses. Private campuses are established
through private investments and receive no public grants. In 2012-2013, there were 96 constituent, 429 community and 751 private campuses
accounting for about 37 percent, 30 percent and
33 percent of the total higher education enrolment of 569,000, respectively. Tribhuvan University, the largest university in the country, accounted for nearly 88 percent of this enrolment.
Making Strides in Education
Nepal has made good progress in enhancing access, equity and efficiency in school education,
and remains committed to the achievement of
the Millennium Development Goals (MDG)
and Education for All (EFA) targets.
The percentage of children between the ages of
three to five years accessing ECED increased
to 77.7 percent in 2014-2015, and nearly 60
percent of the new entrants in grade one have
ECED experience. The net enrolment rate has
reached 96.1 at primary and 87.6 at the basic
level. Likewise, gender parity in enrolments
has been achieved at all levels of schooling. The
share of hitherto marginalized groups such as
Dalits and Janajatis has also increased in the total student population. Dalit children account
for more than 20 percent of all children enrolled
in primary education and Janajatis account for
more than 36 percent of all enrolled children,
which is more than their proportional representation in the total population according to the
2011 Census. However, the share of Dalits grad-
Table 4.1: Education Sector at a Glance
Subsector
ECED/PPC
School
TVET
Higher
No. of years
Share of total
education budget
No. of students
Public
Private
1
a
1,014,339
35,121
30,034b
5,087
12
82.0
7,488,248
34,335c
34,270
8,429
0.3–3
4.1
~90,000
421d
21
400
3–6
8.1
569,665
1,276
96
1,180e
Note the following:
a
ECED budget is included in the school subsector
b
Includes school and community-based ECD centres
c
No. of schools are counted by levels therefore may not add up to total
d
Does not include many short-term training institutions registered with authorities other than CTEVT
e
Includes 429 community-run and 751 private campuses
50
Type and no. of institutions
Total
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
ually decreases to 14.6 in lower secondary, 10.5
in secondary and only 6.8 in higher secondary
education, indicating that many Dalit children
do not progress in the education ladder24.
The overall literacy rate for the population aged
five years and above has also increased from
54.1 percent in 2001 to 65.9 percent in 201125.
However, there are marked gender disparities in
literacy rates: 75.1 percent of males are literate
as compared with 57.4 percent of females. These
differences are expected to narrow down as there
is an increasing trend of more girls attending
and completing basic education.
While school education has made significant
progress in enhancing access, the system suffers
from low quality and relevance of education.
Further, school education is not completely
free despite constitutional provisions of free
education up to secondary level, affecting the
full participation of children, particularly from
the poorest segments.
In TVET, more than 90,000 people graduate
annually from various non-degree short-term
and long-term degree courses (Technical School
Leaving Certificate or TSLC and diploma),
which represents a gradual increase over the
years. Mechanisms have also been instituted for
skills testing of these graduates. However, the
employability of the TVET graduates remains
low and there are challenges in responding
to market needs.
In higher education, total student enrolment increased from 173,546 in 2005 -2006 to 569,665
in 2012-2013, with an average annual growth
rate of 14.7 percent. Of this, approximately 40
percent are girls. The number of graduates increased from 25,900 in 2005-20006 to 63,642
during the same period. The gross enrolment
rate reached 17.1 in 2012-2013, which is higher
than that of most countries at comparable levels
of economic development. Despite significant
achievements over the past decade, factors such
as low relevance and quality, internal inefficiencies, inequity and inadequate financing contin-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
ue to pose major challenges in higher education.
Sector Financing and Coordination
Education is a priority sector for the GoN. The
sector has been receiving the largest share (around
14 percent) of the government budget allocation
in recent years. Furthermore, public investment
in education as a fraction of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) increased from less than 2.9 percent in 1999 to 4.2 percent in 2014. More than
80 percent of the government’s education budget
is allocated to school education, and within that
about 60 percent goes to basic education. This
is in line with the global commitments made by
the government to achieve MDG and EFA targets. But this has also led to the under-financing
of tertiary education. Foreign aid has been an
important component of the total government
spending in education. On average, development partners have accounted for more than 22
percent of the total education budget although it
decreased to 13 percent in FY2015.
The school subsector demonstrates good evidence of a sector-wide approach involving the
pooling of government and development partners’ funds to support a jointly agreed national
School Sector Reform Programme (SSRP)
through direct budgetary support.26 In TVET
too, there is good evidence of coordination
amongst the government and different development partners supporting the subsector, albeit in
project mode. The major development partners
supporting TVET include Asian Development
Bank (ADB), Department for International Development (DfID), the European Union (EU),
Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), USAID, World Bank (WB),
and Finland, with interagency coordination by
SDC. However, development partners’ engagement in higher education is limited to WB.
Disaster Risk Reduction
Under SSRP, efforts have been undertaken
to mainstream disaster risk reduction (DRR)
and safety in school education. In 2012, MoE
prepared a pilot school safety action plan to
Within Dalits, the share of girls slightly decreases in secondary (49.1%) and higher secondary (48.5%) levels.
Central Bureau of Statistics. 2011. Nepal Population and Housing Census 2011: Main Report. Kathmandu: Central Bureau of Statistics.
26
The development partners supporting the SSRP include Australia, ADB, EU, Finland, JICA, Norway, UNICEF and the World Bank, including funds from the Global
Partnership for Education.
24
25
51
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
undertake retrofitting of 260 school buildings in Kathmandu Valley. It involved training
1050 masons on retrofitting, 30 Department of
Education (DoE) and District Education Office
(DEO) engineers and sub-engineers, and 150
other engineers on detailed vulnerability assessment and design. Further, the action plan included earthquake awareness safety orientation
for 50,000 students and 4,000 teachers.
To date, the government has retrofitted 160
school buildings none of which experienced
any damage due to the earthquake. The capacity
development of 180 DOE and DEO engineers
and sub-engineers has been completed. More
than 50,000 students and 3,417 teachers have
been given safety awareness orientation. Training has been provided to 693 masons. Based
on the lessons learnt from the pilot, in 2014
the MoE approved a comprehensive strategy
for schools in Nepal which includes nine standalone and six linked actions to reduce the risk of
disaster in schools and has an estimated budget
of US$ 560 million for a 10-year period.
However, the strategy and plan need to be revisited in the context of the current disaster and
included in the post-SSRP education sector plan
(School Sector Development Plan or SSDP) that
is currently being formulated. Elements of DRR
and education in emergencies have been incorporated in the school curriculum and textbooks,
and a school emergency contingency plan has
also been prepared. There are also dedicated
courses on disaster risk management (DRM)
and earthquake engineering in various institutes
of engineering.
Post-Disaster Context
Disaster Effects and Impacts
This section describes the effects, including damages and losses, of the earthquake on Nepal’s education sector. It should be noted that the effects
of the earthquake could have been much more
severe had it not struck on a Saturday afternoon,
the weekly holiday. Had it struck on a weekday,
the loss of human lives would have been much
higher, particularly if it had occurred at a time
when children and teachers were at school.27
Effects on infrastructure and
Physical Assets
Table 4.2 below provides a summary of the
losses to infrastructure and physical assets in
the education sector. The extent of damages and
losses is the highest in school education, with
the subsector accounting for 88.8 percent of
the total damages and losses faced by the entire sector. More specifically, 8,242 community
(public) schools have been affected by the earthquake: 25,134 classrooms were fully destroyed
and another 22,097 were partially damaged. Institutional (private) schools also experienced significant infrastructure damage: 956 classrooms
were fully destroyed and 3,983 classrooms were
partially damaged. In addition, 4,416 toilets,
and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) facilities, and 1,791 compound walls were damaged. The damage to ECD centres, furniture,
libraries and laboratories, computers and other
equipment was proportional to the damage
faced by the schools.
Likewise, in the TVET subsector, most of the
reported damage was faced by the Jiri Technical
School in Dolakha, which was completely damaged. A total of 356 TVET classrooms were fully
destroyed and another 184 were partially damaged. There was significant damage to equipment and other assets. However, as pointed out
in the section on methodology, this may not
be a true reflection of the actual damages and
losses faced by the subsector since complete information on the damages and losses faced by
CTEVT-affiliated public and private technical
institutions is not available as yet.
In higher education, 1,292 classrooms were
completely destroyed and another 3,040 were
partially damaged. Likewise, there was a very
high loss to equipment as a result of damages
to research laboratories. Further, there was major damage to the administrative buildings of
three major universities – Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu University, and Nepal Sanskrit
University. The cumulative value of damages to
higher education institutions has been estimated
at NPR 28 billion. However, the actual damages
and losses faced by the sector could climb much
higher when complete information from private
It is reported that 584 students (571 studying in school and 13 in higher education) lost their lives. 49 teachers from schools and colleges were killed.
27
52
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
institutions affiliated with the various universities is made available.
The sector also witnessed losses to community
learning centres, public libraries and community-based ECD centres. Again, however, it
was impossible for the Sector Assessment Team
to reflect the true extent of damages and losses faced by such institutions in the absence
of mechanisms to systematically collect and
supply such information.
Effects on Teaching and Learning
While the effects of the quake on infrastructure
and physical assets are relatively easy to estimate
in monetary terms, it is more difficult to estimate the financial implications of the quake on
teaching and learning processes. The earthquake
and its aftershocks led to the complete closure of
schools and colleges for more than a month (26
April–30 May) in the severely-affected districts,
forcing more than two million children and
youth to stay out of educational institutions for
a significant period of time at a time when the
academic year had just started.28 The standard
school opening days per year is 220, with 190
days for teaching-learning and the rest for examinations, extracurricular activities, and other
non-teaching functions.
During meetings with the assessment team,
DEOs and central agencies emphasized that
the number of days lost would eventually be
covered through cuts in summer vacation and
annual festivals. However, even as the schools
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
reopened, it would be a while before regular
teaching-learning can take place. Most schools
in the highly-affected districts will not hold fullday classes for at least one month, leading to loss
of learning time.
More importantly, the destruction of houses
and displacement of families has had a severely
negative impact on the learning environment
at home. Children reported that they have lost
the motivation and confidence to study as their
learning habits have been disrupted. They are assailed by anxiety that they might have forgotten
what they had learnt and so they may find it
difficult to pass their examinations (particularly
children in grades 8 and 10 who need to take the
district and national level board examinations).
It is, therefore, likely that affected schools might
experience a decline in learning outcomes in the
short to medium term.
There are other effects to watch out for as well.
For instance, the effects on enrolment, attendance and internal efficiency could lead to an
increase in the number of out-of-school children.
There could also be an increase in the number of
children with disabilities or significant injuries for
whom the temporary or transitional learning centres (TLCs) could be less than accessible. With
the demand for additional labour both at home
and in the market, it is reasonable to assume that
some children, particularly in the higher grades,
might be less regular or drop out eventually, and
there might also be a decrease in their motivation
to learn (these implications are discussed sepa-
Table 4.2: Estimation of Damages to Infrastructure and Physical Assets by Subsector
ECD
School
TVET
Higher education
NFE/LLL
784
26,090
356
1,292
40
Number of classrooms/rooms partially destroyed
-
26,080
184
3,040
7
Number of toilets and WASH facilities
-
4,416
-
-
-
No. of classrooms/rooms fully destroyed
Number of compound walls
--
1,791
-
6
-
Equipment
(in Million NPR)
-
140.4
90.0
155.5
-
Furniture
(in Million NPR)
-
1,867.6
4.5
5.6
0.6
9.8
2,086.5
1.3
16.7
0.4
Other assets (textbooks, education materials,
uniforms) (in Million NPR)
28
The schools in the affected districts reopened on 31 May and colleges affiliated to Tribhuvan University reopened on 5 June.
53
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Universities, the Higher Secondary Education
Board and the Teacher Service Commission post
either postponed or rescheduled their examinations. But this is unlikely to affect the schedules
planned for next year.
rately in the section on risks and vulnerabilities
below). It is, however, impossible at the moment
to gauge the effects of the quake on these parameters and quantify the resulting efficiency losses.
Effects on Teachers and Education
Personnel
It is probable that there will be some effects
on the normal functioning of school management committees, as many experienced loss of
lives and incurred property losses as well. Further, given that education personnel have been
redeployed for structural assessments and relief
works, service delivery at central and local levels
is likely to be affected for some time.
The total casualties among teachers were reported to be 49 (including two in higher education).
While there was no reported casualty among
non-teaching personnel, many teachers from the
affected areas lost their homes and family members. The household burden for female teachers
increased. In interactions during the team’s field
visits, teachers stated that they would be able to
resume teaching-learning activities once schools
reopened but, simultaneously, they raised concerns regarding the availability of housing, need
for advance payment, and additional training
to facilitate children’s return to schools, psychosocial counselling, and their management in
multi-grade settings.
Emerging Risks and Vulnerabilities
Disasters affect different segments of society in
disproportionate ways. Nepal is a highly diverse
country in terms of geography, demography,
language and socio-economic status, and certain
areas and groups tend to be more vulnerable
to disasters than others. The vulnerabilities are
likely to be exacerbated by the internal displacement of people and increased risks of flooding
and landslides in the rainy season.
Effects on Service Delivery and Governance Mechanisms
No major damages to physical infrastructures
of central-level institutions were reported during meetings with the team. Hence, the effect
on the functioning of key central-level agencies
was deemed to be minimal. At the district level,
there was some damage to DEOs, particularly
in the most-affected districts. The cumulative
value of these damages has been estimated at
NPR 79.4 million. There was major damage
to the administrative buildings of three major
universities – Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu University, and Nepal Sanskrit University
– which affected their day-to-day operations.
The assessment uses pre-disaster indicators to
predict education-related vulnerabilities (outof-school, drop-out, repetition and non-completion) in districts categorized as most affected,
major and minor affected districts. It shows that
there is relatively lower risk at the primary level
and higher risk at the basic level in the most-affected districts, whereas there is a reversal of pattern in the major affected districts (Table 4.3).
Likewise, analysis of vulnerabilities in the mostaffected districts shows that they have a high
Table 4.3: Prediction of Internal Efficiency in Affected Districts
Drop-out Predictors
Grade 1
Drop-out
Rate
54
Promotion
Rank
Rate
Grade 8
Repetition
Rank
Rate
78.4
Drop-out
Rank
Rate
15.2
Promotion
Rank
Rate
6.0
Repetition
Rank
Rate
89.5
Rank
National
6.5
Most Affected
Districts
5.7
Low
79.4
High
14.9
Low
6.9
High
87.9
Low
5.2
4.5
High
Major Affected
Districts
7.2
High
76.8
Low
30.4
High
5.8
Low
89.3
Low
5.0
High
Minor Affected
Districts
7.1
High
78.8
Low
14.1
Low
5.8
Low
88.1
Low
6.2
High
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
number of children with disabilities in ECED,
requiring a special focus on this group and its
transition to the primary level. However, a higher level of vulnerability at both basic and secondary levels is observed in the minor-affected
areas, emphasizing the need for a balanced focus
that accommodates historic vulnerabilities with
emerging needs. Given that the internal efficiency of the most-affected districts is higher at
primary level compared to the secondary level,
special attention needs to be paid to girls’ and
minority groups’ drop-out and learning outcomes of at the secondary level.
Damages and Losses
The total value of the damages and losses to the
education sector is estimated at NPR 31,317.9
million (US$ 313.2 million) at pre-disaster
prices (Table 4.4). Of this, the damage to infrastructure and physical assets is estimated at NPR
28,063.8 million (US$ 280.6 million). Further,
the sector encountered a loss of NPR 3,254.2
million (US$ 32.5 million), mainly on account
of activities associated the establishment of temporary learning centres, child-friendly spaces
and WASH facilities, demolition of destroyed
buildings and removal of debris, and clean-up
and minor repair costs associated with the use
of ‘intact’ schools as temporary shelters. Overall, the public sector suffered more damages and
losses compared to private sector, accounting for
92 percent of the total damages and losses.29
More than 80 percent of the damages and losses
were in the 14 most-affected districts, with the
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
damages amounting to NPR 22,375.1 million
(US$ 223.8 million) and losses being NPR
2,629.1 million (US$ 26.3 million). For the remaining 42 major and minor affected districts
(including the 17 major-affected districts), the
total damages and losses are NPR 5,688.7 million (US$ 56.9 million) and NPR 625.1 (US$
6.3 million), respectively.
However, the damages and losses reported in
this assessment should be viewed as lower bound
estimates of the actual damages and losses experienced by the sector. The figures would increase
substantially if the value of community contributions to classroom construction in the public
(community) schools were to be included (at
around 40 percent on top of the government’s
contribution).
Recovery Needs and Strategy
The estimation of needs covers the entire sector
and includes the needs of the private sector as
well. The total needs for recovery and reconstruction is estimated at NPR 39,705.8 million (US$
397.1 million). Of this amount, the majority (91
percent) is needed for the recovery and reconstruction of the school subsector (Table 4.5).
However, as in the case of damages and losses, the
estimates of needs should also be viewed as lower
bound estimates of the actual needs required for
the recovery and reconstruction of the entire sector, mainly because of the limitations in the damage and loss assessment data described in the section on methodology. Further, the recovery and
Table 4.4: Damages and Losses to the Education Sector (in NPR million)
Subsector components
ECD
School (1-12 grades)
TVET
Higher education
Disaster effect
Damages
Losses
Distribution by ownership
Total
Public
Private
401.8
11.8
413.5
111.6
301.9
24,642.1
3,190.7
27,832.8
26,670.6
1,162.2
487.3
6.7
494.0
483.9
10.1
2,430.4
42.2
2,472.6
1,581.8
890.8
NFE/LLL
22.8
0.7
23.4
23.4
-
Administrative buildings
(including libraries)
79.4
2.2
81.6
81.6
-
Total (in million NPR)
28,063.8
3,254.3
31,317.9
28,952.9
2,365.0
Total (in million US$)
280.6
32.5
313.2
289.5
23.7
29
Data on damages and losses to the private sector is limited, with the information provided only for 11 districts. Therefore, the value of the actual damages and losses to
private sector is bound to be much higher.
55
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
reconstruction needs will increase significantly if
the needs of private institutions are taken into account. Given that private education institutions
(schools, TVET institutions and university colleges) are not funded by government resources,
it is recommended that they be provided with access to soft loans for reconstruction in return for
meeting the requisite safety standards.
Table 4.5: Estimates of Recovery and
Reconstruction Needs (in NPR million)
Subsector
School sector (including ECD/PPCs)
TVET
Higher education
NFE/CLCs
General governance
and administration
Total (in NPR NPR)
Total (in US$ million)
Cost of needs
36,105.3
710.0
2,417.5
42.1
430.9
39,705.8
397.1
Priorities of Recovery and Strategies
The overall focus of any recovery and reconstruction strategy in the education sector is to
ensure uninterrupted education service delivery
at all times. This calls for a focus on both the
structural and non-structural aspects of the education system to ensure that all education institutions are resilient to multi-hazards and provide
an enabling learning environment. The overall
recovery strategy will prioritize the 56 affected
districts, but will gradually move to include
all education institutions across the country
through incorporation of the DRR perspective
in the subsectoral plans and programmes. The
major elements of the strategy include:
• Restructuring the MoE system: Existing
institutional arrangements at the central
and local levels need to be restructured to
respond more effectively to multi-hazards.
This would require reviewing and revisiting
existing policies related to the organization
and management of the system.
• Strengthening systemic capacity to deal
effectively with post-disaster response and
recovery and reconstruction: These would
include mechanisms to address the immediate needs described above as well as improve
existing policies, guidelines and systems to
56
ensure that education buildings meet higher
standards and levels of safety than residential
buildings. It is important to set up independent quality control and inspection requirements for the construction of school buildings. Policies and guidelines to regulate safety
standards for private schools through certification, technical and administrative support need to be introduced. Likewise, there
should be adequate provisioning of human
resources and technical capacity at the national and district levels to ensure safety and
quality at all phases of construction. Higher
education institutions could play a crucial
role in these aspects.
• Building back better: All new education
institutions should be resilient to future disasters (buildings with safe and adequately
sized staircases, proper exits, furnishing
and equipment such as to minimize potential harm to school occupants, displays and
equipment for early warning and evacuation
arrangements) and ensure the provision of
minimum enabling conditions for enhanced
learning (such as clean drinking water supply
including the harvesting of rain water where
applicable, separate sanitation facilities for
girls and boys, energy and communication
connectivity, libraries, laboratories and playgrounds). Retrofitting should be continued
for prioritized vulnerable schools. Likewise,
thought would be given to a clear policy
and plan to replace all school buildings with
stone and mud mortar masonry on a priority
basis. Building back better will be done in
close coordination with the local bodies and
communities. However, the current model of
building schools through community contribution should be revisited.
• Interventions in non-structural aspects:
Enhancing disaster resilience is not only
about building back better from a structural
perspective. It requires interventions in nonstructural aspects of the education system such
as the curriculum and textbooks to ensure that
teachers and students internalize safety issues
and can act in times of need. This also requires strengthened disaster preparedness and
response at the school and community level
through school-based DRM and communitybased DRM training and planning.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
The range of specific needs in the short
term, the medium term and long terms are
described below.
Short-term Needs (0–1 years)
These include the immediate and transitional
needs that are required to resume the delivery of
education services in the various subsectors until
reconstruction and rehabilitation of permanent
structures is completed.
In the school subsector, the short-term needs
include the following:
• For the resumption of education services,
it is estimated that nearly 15,000 temporary/
transitional learning centres with teachinglearning and co-curricular and WASH
facilities (including separate facilities for
girls) need to be established in the affected
districts.30 Given that school reconstruction
would require at least two to three years these
structures require reinforcement and upgrading to withstand storms, snow, hail and rain
to ensure uninterrupted education in a safe
environment while undergoing reconstruction and retrofitting.
• Debris removal and site clearance of
damaged schools to prepare the sites for
set up of transitional classrooms and
permanent buildings.
• Provision of textbooks and teaching-learning materials to ensure meaningful resumption of teaching-learning processes given the
massive damage to textbooks and teachinglearning materials in the affected districts.
• Detailed structural assessment of damaged school buildings on a building-bybuilding basis, and soil tests to ascertain the
true extent of damages and losses as well
as feasibility of reconstruction/retrofitting
in existing sites.
• Development of appropriate designs and
prototypes and institutional arrangements,
taking into account geography, climate, avail-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
ability of land, cost effectiveness and other
factors into account, is important for a timely
reconstruction and rehabilitation of damaged
school buildings. Further assessment of existing steel frame structure classrooms should be
done to feed into the development of such
prototypes to see if they could be the most
cost-effective and resilient structures in case of
earthquakes and others disasters.
• Revisiting of the existing ‘Strategy for Disaster-Resilient Schools’ and mainstreaming of the reconstruction and recovery plan
in the post-SSRP school sector development
sector plan that is currently being formulated
by the government.
In the TVET and higher education subsectors,
there is an immediate need for the following:
• Provision of temporary spaces to resume
classes and training programmes that were
ongoing prior to the disaster. For this purpose, it is necessary that individual institutions are instructed and provided with the
requisite resources by UGC, the respective
universities, and CTEVT.
• Flexible
examination
dates
for
missed examinations.
• Subsidized credit/loans for affected
students to ensure continuity of their
higher education.
• Provision of construction-oriented trades
in short-term training programmes
offered by different ongoing TVET-related
projects,31 giving particular attention to
training people in the affected communities. There is also a need to properly equip
masons and other technicians (electricians,
plumbers, etc.) trained for reconstruction work so that the idea of building back
better can be translated into action
quickly and effectively.
• Facility-by-facility assessment of damages,
risks and vulnerabilities through mobilization of engineering students and graduates.
The Education Cluster was immediately activated on 26 April and appealed for US$ 24.1 million to enable the set-up of 4,668 TLCs, the provision of essential educationin-emergencies supplies, and the training of teachers on psychosocial support and life-saving messages relating to disaster preparedness, protection, sanitation and hygiene
promotion, nutrition and health. The Education Cluster is also supporting the DOE with a structural assessment of 7,800 schools to designate them safe or unsafe for the
resumption of learning. The Education Cluster is led by the DOE, under the supervision of the MOE, and co-led by UNICEF and Save the Children. It now consists of
over 70 national and international organizations, including 37 International NGOs, 32 National NGOs and 4 UN Agencies.
31
These include short-term training programs conducted by the government’s Enhanced Vocational Education and Training (EVENT) project, the Skills Development
Project (SDP) and the Employment Fund.
30
57
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Medium-term Needs (1-2 years)
Medium-term needs will be dominated by reconstruction and retrofitting activities in school/
college buildings, and allied structures (DEOs,
resource centres, administrative buildings, libraries, and laboratories). This will require reviewing and revising existing legal and oversight
mechanisms for strengthening and ensuring
safety in all types of educational facilities.
In the school subsector, the medium-term
needs include:
• Reconstruction of fully-destroyed schools
using principles of building back better with
disaster resilience technology, better learning
environment and service delivery and selective additional features such as solar lighting, water harvesting structures, and internet connectivity. Integrated school designs
should be developed to replace fragmented,
block-wise approach to buildings.
• Review and rationalization of school
locations (including school mergers),
teacher deployment, unit costs, and
incentive schemes to ensure that limited
resources are redirected to the most needed
areas and communities.
• Relocation of schools to safer locations:
It is estimated that around 5 percent of the
schools in the most-affected districts need
to be relocated. It is essential that provision
for adequate land in a safe location made for
such relocation.
• Retrofitting and repair of partially destroyed schools through a detailed assessment of partially destroyed buildings.
• Provisioning additional skilled human
resources and technical inputs(including
third party monitoring) at the national, district and school levels to ensure compliance
and quality assurance at all phases of reconstruction/rehabilitation.
• Carrying out curriculum and textbook
reforms with DRR and resilience
perspective and teacher training on the new
curriculum and textbooks through existing
teacher training institutes.
• Strengthening the education management
information system (EMIS) to incorporate
a module on school safety and DRR.
• Improving policies, guidelines and systems for new school buildings to meet
58
higher standards and levels of safety than
residential buildings. Existing school building guidelines needs to be reviewed to meet
‘immediate occupancy’ criteria. School
buildings should double as evacuation shelters during disasters. It is important to set up
independent quality control and inspection
requirements for the construction of school
buildings. Policies, guidelines and building
codes to regulate safety standards for private schools through certification, technical
and administrative support should be introduced.
• Strengthening disaster preparedness and
response at the school and community level
through school-based DRM and community-based DRM training and planning by
enhancing the capacity and preparedness of
SMCs/PTAs, child clubs, and communities
in DRM. An emergency response plan needs
to be developed, supplemented with improvement in the existing curriculum on disaster
risk education and reduction to further raise
the students’ and teachers’ awareness on earthquakes, floods, landslides and other key hazards and to guide them properly in responding and evacuation in the event of disasters.
MoE/DoE and DEOs need to prepare school
continuity plans in case of disruptions to the
school calendar by disasters.
Many of the medium-term needs in the school
subsector also apply to TVET and higher education. In TVET, the medium-term needs include:
• Reconstruction of TVET facilities and institutionsusing principles of building back better.
• Training technical and skilled workers is
crucial as reconstruction will lead to a high
demand for technical and skilled workers
such as skilled masons, carpenters, bar benders and construction supervisors familiar
with earthquake safety techniques. Hence,
ongoing projects should be helped to meet
this additional demand. CTEVT should also
re-organize its schools to meet the demand
for relevant Technical School Leaving Certificate (TSLC) and diploma-level training
and increase the batches of training, which
will require hiring of additional trainers.
• Incorporation of DRR in TVET
programmes and training in DRR
forinstructors/facilitators.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Likewise, in higher education, the mediumterm needs include:
• Reconstruction of damaged facilities and
institutions using principles of building
back better. This would include provisions to
build residential colleges.
• Extension of courses on DRM and earthquake engineering in all engineering colleges affiliated to various universities.
• Strengthening of higher EMIS to enhance
its capacity to collect, analyze and disseminate information on all higher education institutions in the country.
• Offering subsidized credit/loans for affected students to ensure that they continue
with their education
Long-term Needs (beyond 2 years)
In the long run, going beyond the response to the
earthquake and reconstruction, this phase will
focus on long-term development issues, particularly in developing a nation-wide policy and implementation plan for education safety across the
country. Adequate policies and measures will be
put in place to carry out multi-hazard preparedness of educational institutions and investing in
making buildings resilient to different kinds of
disasters. In the long term, all educational institutions need to be built back better, following
state-of-the-art practices of school safety. Further,
it is necessary that subsequent subsectoral plans
and programmes take on board such long-term
developmental measures to ensure that physical
construction is extensively supported by interventions to increase the quality of education and
enhance the learning environment. Major longterm needs include the following:
• Planning and risk assessment across schools
to identify schools that need to be relocated to a safer location. Decisions to replace
seismically vulnerable school buildings or
retrofitting require thorough information
on the risk levels of each building. The assessment should capture schools’ exposure
to other hazards (floods, landslides, fires,
wind-storms, avalanches, rock falls) as well
as availability of drinking water source and
accessibility to communities.
• Strengthening the capacity of higher education for DRR/DRM research through the
establishment of dedicated research centres
in universities or by enhancing the capac-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
ity of existing centres within and outside
of universities, as also recommended by the
proposed higher education policy. This needs
to be closely tied to the provision of research
grants for faculty to conduct research on
related topics.
• Institutionalization of mechanisms to ensure
that all educational institutions and facilities
are disaster resilient which, among others,
includes restructuring/realignment of units
within the MoE system to ensure continued
safety in the entire education sector, including private institutions that are affiliated to
CTEVT and various universities.
• Strengthened disaster preparedness and response at the school and community level
through school-based DRM and community-based DRM training and planning.
An emergency response plan needs to be
developed for each school, with improvement in the existing curriculum on disaster
risk education and reduction to further raise
students’ and teachers’ awareness on earthquakes, floods, landslides and other key hazards and to guide them properly in response
and evacuation in the event of disasters.
MoE/DoE and DEOs must prepare school
continuity plans in case of disruptions to the
school calendar by disasters.
Needs for Addressing the Social Impact of the Disaster
As the disaster is likely to further exacerbate
existing disparities in terms of access, retention
and learning outcomes based on the level of vulnerability across the different equity dimensions
(gender, caste, ethnicity, location, disability, socio economic status, etc.), and the availability
and access to resources, it is necessary to ensure
that the strategies to address these disparities
take into account the changes in prevalence and
severity of these disparities in the aftermath of
the disaster. For this, the implementation of the
Consolidated Equity Strategy for the School
subsector – which includes the development
and use of equity index for needs-based targeting of resources -- to balance emerging postdisaster needs with historic prevalence and severity in disparities of educational outcomes is
both timely and crucial. There is also a need to
adapt the following existing strategies to accommodate the emerging needs:
59
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
• Incentive schemes: as scholarships consume
a considerable part of the available resources, they present an opportunity to enhance
access and retention in schools. Needs-based
redirection of these incentives (in place
of the current ‘blanket’ provision) would
increase the amount of money available to the
neediest children and thereby serve the
immediate needs of those most vulnerable
and most affected.
• Health and nutrition programmes: The
midday meals programme supported by the
government has demonstrated significant
success in contributing to increased access
and retention, especially among disadvantaged groups living in highly food insecure
areas of Nepal in the far and mid-western
hills and mountains. This scheme could be
extended to the affected districts for a fixed
time period to address the nutritional needs
of the children attending schools. Likewise,
there is a need to also extend the MultiSector Nutrition Strategy, under which iron
folic acid and deworming tablets are offered
to students, to the affected areas.
• Advocacy and campaigns: The ‘Welcome to
School Campaign’ has been institutionalized
as an annual reoccurring event to convince
parents to enroll their children and ensure
that children come to school from the start
of the academic year. There is a need to build
on established partnerships with national and
local media to ensure that the campaign encourages affected children to return to school
in the affected areas, as well as alert schools
and communities in non-affected areas to cater to the additional needs of children that
have migrated from the affected areas.
• Alternate education: In order to address
the needs of those who are expected to drop
out of formal education, the government’s
non-formal education and skill-development
programmes will have to adapt to increased
needs based on the projection of increase
of out-of-school children who are unlikely
to return to formal education. This will
require a need-based expansion of the School
Outreach Programme (SOP), the Flexible Schooling Programme (FSP), and the
Open Schooling Programme (OSP) within
the affected areas.
60
• Inclusion of children with disabilities:
Current data on children with disabilities
within the EMIS is limited but suggests
that they are amongst the most marginalized
groups with regard to access, retention and
learning outcomes. It is crucial to strengthen
the monitoring and evaluation of data on
children with disabilities, and the diagnostic
and referral mechanisms within the affected
areas. Also, inclusion should be a core component of the build back better concept to
ensure that safe schools also are inclusive in
terms of access, acoustics and light.
Implementation Arrangements
Implementation arrangements for reconstruction and recovery will vary according to the specific subsectors within the education sector. It
is essential that dedicated mechanisms be instituted within MoE/DoE, CTEVT and universities (including third party verification) to ensure
strict adherence to norms and standards in the
design and construction of education facilities.
In the school subsector, there are a limited number of engineers and sub-engineers at DoE and
DEOs. The damages and losses figures illustrate
the importance of ensuring safety and quality
by providing technical supervision at the school
construction sites, testing materials, inspecting workmanship, and confirming that workers
comply with design drawings during construction. The number of design and construction supervision engineers and sub-engineers should be
increased by hiring additional human resources
and technical inputs for speedy recovery, monitoring safety and quality. TVET and higher education subsectors need to establish coordination
committees within their respective agencies and
could assign specialized institutions within their
ambit (such as the Institute of Engineering in the
case of Tribhuvan University) to manage and
oversee the overall safety of their institutions.
Assessment Methodology
This PDNA for the education sector is part of the
broader PDNA conducted for all sectors under
the overall leadership of NPC. It is a joint exercise
of the government and development partners and
in the case of education is led by MoE.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Methods, Tools and Data Sources
The PDNA of the education sector utilizes a
combination of quantitative and qualitative assessment tools. The major component of this assessment is the estimation of damages and losses
for the entire sector, which includes early childhood education and development (ECED),
school education (grades 1–12), technical and
vocational education and training (TVET),
higher education, and non-formal education/
life-long learning. The estimation of damages
and losses are categorized into the following four
dimensions:
• destruction of infrastructure and assets
• disruption to service delivery and production
• disruption of governance
• emerging risks and vulnerabilities
The calculation of damages and losses for the
sector are based on the data and information
provided to MoE by the various subsectors
– DoE for ECED and school education, CTVET for TVET, UGC for higher education,
and Non-Formal Education Centre for nonformal education/life-long learning (including
community learning centres). Data on damages
and losses to public and institutional libraries
has also been included. For the school subsector, the PDNA Team built on the data that was
compiled through the Nepal Education Cluster,
which was activated to undertake the relief and
initial response shortly after the earthquake.32
Data on damages and losses was obtained from
57 districts, including the 14 most-affected districts. All calculations are based on the pre-disaster unit costs used by the MoE system in the
planning and allocation of resources.
The Sector Assessment Team undertook field
visits from 26–29 May 2015 in 10 variously affected districts33 to gain additional insights into
the extent of damage to physical infrastructure
and assets, and to understand the broader effects
of the disaster on:
• access and learning environment
• teaching and learning processes
• teachers and education personnel
• service delivery and governance mechanisms
• emerging risks and vulnerabilities
35
32
33
34
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
More importantly, however, these field visits were
used to understand local perspectives on how the
education system can be built back better to reduce multi-hazard risks in the future. For these
purposes, a standard questionnaire was developed
by the Assessment Team to guide the interactions
with various stakeholders. In each district, visits were made to ECD centres, general schools,
technical schools, and universities/colleges. Discussions were held with the District Education
Officers and staff, teachers, school management
committee members, parents and children to
the extent possible. Further, a series of interactions were held with representatives of all central
line agencies including the CTEVT and UGC,
representatives of private schools and various
teacher organizations on 27 May to understand
the effects of the disaster on the functioning of
the education system and to solicit their suggestions for potential recovery strategies and interventions. Further consultations on the recovery
strategies and interventions were carried out with
these agencies and their suggestions have been
incorporated in the report. In addition, the children’s consultations organized by the Plan International, Save the Children, UNICEF and World
Vision International, Nepal, from 25 May to 7
June 2015 have informed the PDNA education
sector report by reflecting the voices of the children from the 14 most-affected districts.
Key Assumptions and Limitations
Damages to infrastructure and assets in all subsectors have been estimated on the basis of the
number of classrooms/rooms damaged (not on
the basis of the number of building units damaged). As ‘intact’ classrooms in an unusable
building34 have generally not been included in
the damage reports from the districts, the total
number of classrooms rendered unusable is most
likely higher than the figures used here. Whilst
there was complete information on school-based
ECD centres (which are included under school
education), information on the extent of damage to community-based ECD centres was available only for the 14 most-affected districts. We
have assumed that the damage to ECD centres
in the remaining affected districts was proportionate to the damage to schools and have done
the calculations accordingly.35
For details, see www.humantarianrelief.info/operations/nepal/education
These included Kathmandu, Lalitpur, Bhaktapur, Lamgjung, Tanahu, Gorkha, Dhading, Sindhupalchowk, Kavrepalanchowk and Sindhuli.
A number of such cases were observed during the field visit.
We can generally assume that community-based ECD centers are centers are typically located in less structurally sound buildings so this estimate of damages is also highly
likely to be a lower bound estimate.
61
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
In the case of private education institutions,
many of them operate in rented buildings and
the damage to classrooms could be therefore
seen as damage to be included under the housing sector PDNA. This is also the case with many
community-based ECD centres and communitylearning centres. However, we have included such
damages as damages to the education sector. We
have applied the same standard unit costs to all
classrooms in different subsectors irrespective of
the nature of construction (e.g., mud vs. RCC). It
should be noted that complete data on damages
to assets in many schools and educational institutions were not available. In such cases, we have
assumed that total damage to classrooms also
means total damage to furniture, equipment and
other assets and estimated the total damages using average cost figures provided by the respective
subsectoral institutions. In the case of facilities
experiencing partial damage, we have assumed
the loss at 50 percent of the value of the furni-
36
37
62
ture, equipment and other assets owned by them.
Following the standard PDNA methodology, we
have also included in the loss estimates the costs
of demolition/debris removal and of setting up
temporary learning spaces.36
Given the extremely tight timeline for the assessment, it was not possible to include data from
the detailed structural assessment that is currently being undertaken in all affected districts.37
The Team has, therefore, chosen to be conservative in its estimates of damages and losses. More
specifically, it should be noted that damage and
loss estimates reported in this assessment should
be viewed as lower bound estimates of the actual
damages and losses experienced by the sector for
the following reasons:
• Underreporting of damages in educational
institutions run by the private sector: Not
all private education institutions were able
to provide damage and loss data. This was
However, justifications could be made to include some of these ‘losses’ in the ‘needs’ part.
However, the preliminary results of these assessments from 4 districts have been used to verify the data on damage that was reported through the District Education Officers.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
also the case with TVET and higher education subsectors that do not have systematic
mechanisms in place to collect such data under a limited time frame. Therefore, a more
systematic and comprehensive assessment of
damaged buildings is needed to ascertain the
true extent of damage.
• Limitations in approach to reporting damages: As damage reports show data on damaged classrooms as opposed to buildings,
‘intact’ classrooms in damaged buildings
have not been accounted for even though
they are unusable.
• Limited information on damages to community-run institutions: Data on damages
to many institutions such as communitybased ECD centres and community learning
centres are not available.
• Use of conservative unit cost figures: The
unit costs used by the government underestimate the actual costs of classrooms as most of
construction in the education sector occurs
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
through government-community partnerships and matching contributions from the
communities and other organizations.
• Non-inclusion of damages from storms
following the earthquake: As the PDNA
was being undertaken, a series of highly destructive storms also hit the affected districts,
causing additional damage to the already affected schools and communities. Roofing
materials, particularly, were blown away in
many schools. However, these damages could
not be included in this analysis. Furthermore,
the monsoon will bring with it torrential rains
and increase the risks of flooding and landslides. In particular, five of the most-affected
districts (Rasuwa, Sindhupalchowk, Dhading, Dolakha and Gorkha) have suffered from
monsoon-related disasters in the past and it
is highly likely that they will suffer from additional damages in the monsoon. Such potential future damages are also not included in
this PDNA.
63
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
64
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
5. Cultural Heritage
Summary
In the aftermath of the 2015 earthquake, Nepal suffered its worst loss of heritage since the
earthquake of 1934. Major monuments in
Kathmandu’s seven World Heritage Monument
Zones were severely damaged and many collapsed completely. In addition, in more than 20
districts, thousands of private residences built
on traditional lines, historic public buildings,
ancient and recently built temples and monasteries, were affected by the disaster, 25 percent
of which were destroyed completely. The total
estimated damages to tangible heritage is NPR
16.9 billion (US$ 169 million). The earthquake
affected about 2,900 structures with a cultural,
historical and religious heritage value. The list
of affected structures was collated by the Ministry of Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation
(MoCTCA), the Pashupati Area Development
Trust, and the Buddhist Philosophy Promotion
and Monastery Development Committee.
The baseline information on the size and nature
of damage to the buildings, and the effects on its
occupants, varies widely. While detailed documentation is available on monuments within the
Kathmandu Valley and some major sites in the
districts, there is a lack of precise information on
the condition of buildings in remote areas.
It is estimated that the decline in revenues from
ticket sales at monuments within the Kathmandu Valley will amount to losses worth NPR
600 million (US$ 6 million) over the next 12
months. Places of worship such as temples and
monasteries also provide occasions for revenue
generation, such as during religious festivals and
performances when shrines receive substantial
money offerings. The preliminary monetary loss
was set at 10 percent of the physical damage or
close to US$ 17 million.
The long-term recovery plan envisages complete restoration of all damaged structures with
a view to building back better through the use
of high grade materials, seismic-strengthening
structural features. The cost of reconstruction
has been calculated at the estimated value of
damages plus 20 percent to build back better.
The cost of recovery also includes the professional services provided by technical experts,
capacity-building support to the Department of
Archaeology (DoA), MoCTCA, and initiatives
to document and revitalize the wide spectrum
of crafts and cultural traditions that come under
the rubric of intangible cultural heritage (ICH)
by enabling craftspeople and local communities,
among others.
Internationally supported restoration programmes on such a large scale will undoubtedly
strengthen Nepal’s professional corps and its institutions. Based on the principles of building
back better, the restored historic monuments
will get a fresh lease of life, captivating Nepali
citizens and international visitors alike for years
to come. The fillip provided to tourism, during
the reconstruction phase would benefit local
businesses such as hotels, bed and breakfasts,
restaurants, and crafts stores.
One objective of this assessment is to provide
a preliminary description of the damage caused
to Nepal’s heritage structures. This report provides an initial assessment of short, medium,
and long-term intervention needs in the course
of building resilience.
Pre-Disaster Context and
Baseline
MoCTCA accords great importance to the conservation of cultural heritage. It is a huge draw
for tourism, which occupies a significant place
in Nepal’s economy. DoA, established in 1953,
is the official executing agency for heritage
conservation and also the custodian of Nepal’s
museums, among them the National Museum
and Patan Museum. As per the provision of the
Ancient Monument Preservation Act (1956),
DoA is mandated to protect and preserve Ne-
65
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
pal’s extensive cultural heritage, maintain inventories and provide technical assistance for conservation. Creating new museums, safeguarding
moveable cultural property and raising awareness for the protection of cultural heritage, also
comes within its ambit.
The Kathmandu Valley is home to seven World
Heritage Monument Zones, which together
have been declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site, namely the three town centres of the
erstwhile royal cities of Kathmandu, Patan and
Bhaktapur; the two important Buddhist monument sites of Boudha and Swayambhu; and the
two major Hindu sites of Pashupatinath and
Changu Narayan. In addition, the Government
of Nepal (GoN) has listed Panauti, Gorkha and
Dakshinkali as nationally protected monument
zones. According to DoA there are close to
1,000 historic religious sites and heritage buildings within the Kathmandu Valley alone, which
need to be inventoried. Moreover, most available records are in Nepali language and are dispersed across many locations.
Carl Pruscha’s Kathmandu Valley, The Preservation
of Physical Environment and Cultural Heritage: A
Protective Inventory, published in 1975, is the
most comprehensive record available to date and
continues to serve as the prime source of information on the built heritage of the valley. The two
volumes provide location drawings and photographic documentation of over 800 buildings and
sites of heritage value. This data is important for
future restoration work.
Records of heritage structures in Nepal’s districts
are relatively scarce with the exception of data
for major sites such as Lo Mantang, Gorkha,
Panauti, and Nuwakot. According to sources
within DoA, there are approximately 1000 sites
in the districts outside Kathmandu Valley that
are classified as being of national, regional and
local importance. In Nepal, tangible cultural
heritage is inextricably associated with a living
culture of daily worship and ancient festivals.
Cultural sites are where people come to pray
daily, interact socially, celebrate, and find solace.
The Kathmandu Valley has a number of museums with a wide range of collections. The internationally acclaimed Patan Museum, located
in a former royal palace, features professionally
66
curated exhibitions on Hindu and Buddhist Art.
The National Museum collections include some
exquisite pieces but many exhibits are poorly displayed and labelled. The Hanuman Dhoka Royal
Museum in Kathmandu displays mostly objects
related to three erstwhile monarchs of Nepal
(King Tribhuvan, King Mahendra, and King Birendra). The National Art Gallery and two small
neglected museums featuring bronze and wood
carving are located in the town of Bhaktapur. In
general, all museums are in serious need of physical refurbishment and professional curation.
Intangible culture in Nepal, with its incredible
richness of over 120 languages and countless
cultural and religious traditions and festivals,
has been widely researched by international
scholars and extensively documented. The richness of expression in Kathmandu Valley, where
rituals and processions can be observed on a
daily basis, may be unmatched. However, there
has been a decline in traditional cultural activity
that is without a doubt connected to globalization, migration of people for reasons of livelihood, and compounded by the growing effects
of consumerism. Nevertheless, the wealth of
intangible cultural activity continues to be an
aspect of national pride and an attraction for
foreign visitors.
Post-Disaster Context
Disaster Effects and Impacts
Effects on Infrastructure and Physical Assets
DoA, MoCCTA, was the prime source of information regarding the extent of destruction to
historic sites, conducting extensive field visits
and collecting data through its staff. According
to the assessment, the earthquake affected a total
of 691 buildings of historic value in 16 districts.
Of these buildings, 131 were fully destroyed and
560 were damaged. DoA’s researchers compiled
information mostly in the form of handwritten
notes with some digital photographs to support
their remarks. The compilation of a consolidated digital database consisting of systematic
description of damage and photographic documentation is still pending.
Several UNESCO teams, including volunteers,
conducted independent surveys of historic sites
in the Kathmandu Valley. UNESCO contracted
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Kathmandu Living Labs, a Kathmandu-based
private company that makes databases and
mapping information available online through
its open-source software for an interesting initiative. The idea was to train volunteers with
backgrounds in architecture, engineering and
art history to create reports on the condition of
monuments and historic houses in cultural sites
quickly and easily using smartphones.
The data collected includes information about
sites, type of structures, level of damage, photographs, GPS coordinates, and local contact information. The purpose of this documentation is
to start an interactive map and database for the
benefit of DoA, researchers, the general public,
and tourists. This recently collected data represents a follow-up to Pruscha’s 1975 inventory,
and will be useful for educational purposes, fundraising and generating public awareness about
the cultural significance of the sites. Access to the
website is currently restricted as sites are being secured and inventories are being made of valuable
artefacts lying unprotected. Since it is a work in
progress, not all the data could be included in this
PDNA (to date, data has been collected on 1,145
monuments within the Kathmandu Valley). In
addition several private religious organizations
provided their own data of damage in remote
districts and conveyed their findings to DoA that
close to 1,400 monasteries in remote areas have
suffered damage or collapse.
In the Kathmandu Valley, two cultural institutions (Nepal Academy and Nepal Academy of
Fine Arts) and three museums (National Museum, Chauni; Hanuman Dhoka Palace Museum, Kathmandu; and the National Art Gallery,
Bhaktapur), suffered major damage. All buildings will need extensive restoration works to
bring back some semblance of their past glory;
however, available data now indicates that the
collections are unharmed.
Emergency response was initiated immediately
after the earthquake and carried out with widely
different results and speed in the seven locations
within the World Heritage Site.
In Patan, for example, the temple-studded Durbar Square with the adjacent Royal Palace suffered
considerable damage, but many recently restored
palace buildings and temples survived the earth-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
quake, with minor damage at most. DoA representatives took the lead in coordinating security
and clean-up efforts immediately after the disaster. The remnants of three completely destroyed
Pagoda temples were secured with the help of
hundreds of volunteers, soldiers and police, and
brought to safety in an adjacent palace courtyard.
The remnants of structures and artefacts are now
securely stored at the Patan Museum where they
will be documented, inventoried and cleaned for
future restoration. A team of master carpenters
is currently engaged in re-assembling doors and
windows that were damaged when the temples
collapsed. A storage shed is under construction
where all timber components and stone elements
will be securely stored.
Progress at Kathmandu’s Durbar Square was less
evident as mounds of debris remained on the
square more than a month after the earthquake.
The fragile condition of the Royal Palace that
houses the collection of the Hanuman Dhoka
Museum, poses a difficult challenge to heritage
conservationists. The building is yet to be secured to facilitate collection, removal and safe
storage of items. Similar activities are underway
at many other sites where temporary shoring and
protection of buildings with tarpaulins need to
be completed before the onset of the monsoon.
Effects on Service Delivery and Access to
Goods and Services
The destruction of buildings has caused institutions such as libraries, museums and archives as
well as places of worship to shut down. The lack
of data made it difficult to assess the extent and
duration of physical damage within the brief period of the PDNA. The closure will most likely
be temporary with some noted exceptions like
the National Museum in Chauni and the Hanuman Dhoka Palace Museum, where the extent
of damage is such that a full recovery will take
many years. More in-depth research is needed to
assess the impact on thousands of religious institutions that are widely distributed, often in remote areas of affected districts. Pilgrimages have
come to an almost complete halt as people are
preoccupied with the immediate effects of the
disaster on their livelihoods. Many roads and access trails to remote pilgrimage sites have been
cut off. All seven World Heritage Zones in the
Kathmandu Valley have been closed and ticket
collection from tourists has been suspended.
67
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Effects on Governance
The effects on governance in the cultural sector
have been limited. The closing of government
offices and institutions, such as cultural centres
and museums, has slowed down the implementation of ongoing restoration projects. The need
to respond swiftly to the disaster took a priority
over ongoing programme activities.
Effects on Risks and Vulnerabilities
Preservation efforts in general are not well-funded. Recent urban development programmes
within the city showed a shift from preservation
to addressing issues of ‘modernization’. Even
before the earthquake there was already a huge
backlog of cultural sites that needed restoration.
Over the years religious institutions have lost
their land for various reasons. The loss of income from landholdings that traditionally supplied funds for religious activities caused further
pauperization of historic sites. Some traditional
festivals and rituals have suffered because of decrease in financial support from communities
and the government.
Effects on Intangible Cultural Heritage
The intangible cultural aspects of worship, rituals and festivals were severely interrupted at
temples that completely collapsed. Loss of important tangible heritage is related to the loss of
intangible heritage and identity, just as the loss
of traditional family dwellings is bound to have
an impact on the day-to-day lives of the people.
Traditional architectural styles of building, just
like clothing, are integral to ethnic and cultural
identity of the people and the displacement of
people will further weaken their links to community centres and rituals.
Significant economic losses will incur in communities that rely on the revenues generated in the
course of ritual performances associated with temples. Such performances will be severely curtailed,
or may not occur, which will lead to a potential loss
of this intangible heritage. Stone and metal sculptures, often revered as living gods, will have to be
relocated from badly damaged sites to new structures that are safe for worship. Inventorying, storing, and safeguarding valuable cultural objects associated with intangible heritage, including masks,
costumes, ritual objects and jewellery used in ritual
performances involve additional costs.
68
Temples have been badly damaged, which has
affected daily worship and interrupted rituals
and festival celebrations. While some structures
have withstood the quake, many are no longer
safe for devotees. Many communities will need
to relocate their religious objects or build temporary structures to allow worship and festivals
to continue. Safeguarding measures for the continuity of ritual public performances (essential
for the cultural identity of a given community)
must be undertaken.
Many public rest houses (patis) have either
collapsed or been badly damaged. These community structures provide a meeting place for
people of all generations to share news and stories. Damage to these structures could mean a
loss in the continuation of oral narratives, which
is intrinsically linked to community culture in
Nepal.
Effects on Cultural Industries
There could be some positive movement towards
transmission of knowledge and implementation
of traditional craftsmanship, as more artisans
will be needed to restore the many historic houses, temples and monuments that were damaged.
The opportunities presented for rebuilding on
such a large scale could revitalize traditional masonry techniques, wood carving, stone-carving
and metal repousée techniques, among others.
While Nepal does not have enough craftspeople
to handle the current need, a small number of
local master-craftsmen could take the lead in
transmitting traditional knowledge to the next
generation. If such efforts could be documented
it would contribute to the retention of a knowledge economy that values cultural heritage. If
adequate training can be conducted for aspiring craftspeople, their numbers would certainly
grow and rebuilding would provide a source of
livelihood for thousands of families.
Most of the buildings that collapsed were older
structures built with traditional materials and
had not been properly maintained. Following
the earthquake, a concern that is widely shared
is that local people may view traditional materials and craftsmanship as ‘unsafe’, displaying an
inclination to accepting concrete structures as a
safer alternative.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Damages and Losses
Estimation of Damages to Infrastructure and
Physical Assets
The planning section of DoA, with inputs from
the Ministry of Culture, the Pashupati Area Development Trust, and the Buddhist Philosophy
Promotion and Monastery Development Committee, has estimated the total damages to cultural heritage properties at US$ 169 million.
The total financial requirement for a full recovery comes to approximately US$ 205 million.
It is estimated that a budget of 20 percent over
the damages would cover the substantial investments needed in retrofitting damaged buildings with earthquake-resilient, strengthening
features. For structures that require rebuilding
from ground-up, the costs of construction of
proper earthquake-resistant foundations have
also been included in the estimate.
Estimation of Losses to Service Delivery and
Access to Goods and Services
Losses from reduced revenues from the sale of
tourist entry tickets to World Heritage Sites and
museums is estimated at about NPR 600 million (US$ 6 million) over the next 12 months.
The calculation is based on a 75 percent reduction in income due to a drastic decline in tourism and the fact that no entry fees have been
collected since the earthquake and all museums
are closed for the time being.
There are many people whose livelihoods are dependent on temples and places of worship. The
revenues they generate may come in the form of:
• direct income (salaries) from the shrines;
• share from the revenues of temples;
• money offerings during special festivals and
performance of religious rites; and
• as income for communities during special
occasions, subsidized by a place of worship
While this is something that cannot be quantified
without a detailed survey, the preliminary monetary loss (allocated as ‘impact on livelihood’) was
set at 10 percent of the physical damage, which
amounts to approximately US$ 17 million.
Estimation of Governance Losses
Due to the closure of government cultural
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
institutions such as museums, many employees
were unable to return to their workplace. Since
all of them are permanently employed with the
government, there has been no loss of income.
The government should make provisions at the
earliest to find other meaningful engagement for
those employees such as joining restoration and
conservation work-related activities.
The detailed damage, losses and reconstruction
costs are given in Table 5.1 below.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
A six-year recovery period (requiring on average
of US$ 34 million per year) is proposed for the
restoration and reconstruction of all damaged
and collapsed historic buildings including refurbishment of cultural institutions and museums.
The recovery plan would include substantial
support to DoA in financing necessary equipment and additional professional staff over the
next six years.
International and local experts will be needed in
the fields of structural and seismic engineering,
architecture, conservation, curation and museum
design, as well as in areas of expertise related to
preserving cultural heritage. There will be a need
for specialists in intangible heritage (among
them, anthropologists, art historians, linguists,
and ethno-musicologists) to help communities
identify ways to revitalize their traditions.
The recovery plan should include a strong commitment to conduct extensive training at all
levels of project planning and restoration implementation. Educational support also needs to be
provided for advanced studies in conservationrelated professions.
Response Phase (June – September 2015)
During the response phase, the Earthquake
Response Coordination Office (ERCO), established by DoA, will remain the coordination
centre until all salvage and stabilization efforts
have been completed and sites along with valuable art objects are fully secured and recorded.
One of the most pressing needs is the protection
of valuable rubble which is of immense archaeological value.
69
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
The Kathmandu site poses the biggest challenge
with large parts of the royal palace destroyed or
threatened by collapse. For instance, the issue
of removing the large collection of the Hanuman Dhoka Museum, particularly the very
heavy 18th century royal thrones, needs to be
addressed as soon as possible and a safe storage
location needs to be found.
The situation in remote areas has not been assessed professionally. Until now, the focus was
on humanitarian relief. Collapsed or heavily
damaged religious buildings were left for the
communities to look after. A beginning needs to
be made on this.
The partial opening of all World Heritage Monument Zones to the public by June 15, 2015
is an ambitious aim announced by the government. Unstable structures will need to be dismantled and unsafe areas fenced off in order to
provide a safe environment for visitors.
Creation of an Inventory, Including Reports on
the Condition of Historic Sites and Buildings
DoA should create an inventory (preferably in
digital form) of historic sites and buildings not
only in the disaster-affected districts but from
across the country.
First Year Activities
(starting in August 2015)
Table 5.1: Damages, Losses and Reconstruction Costs
Sr.
No.
Districts
Damage USD
Losses USD
Losses USD
Losses USD
Cost of Recovery
and Reconstruction
USD
Damage
to physical
assets and
infrastructure
Impact on
livelihood estimated at 10%
of damage
Losses from
tourist
ticket sales
Total value
20% added for
the cost of retrofitting and improved
seismic design
of new structures
$5,330,000
$533,000
$2,275,849
$2,808,849
$6,396,000
1
Bhaktapur
2
Dhading
$300,000
$30,000
$30,000
$360,000
3
Dolkha
$500,000
$50,000
$50,000
$600,000
4
Gorkha
$632,000
$63,200
$63,200
$758,400
5
Kaski
$150,000
$15,000
$15,000
$180,000
6
Kathmandu
$49,915,000
$4,991,500
$8,035,527
$59,898,000
7
Kavrepalanchowk
$2,082,000
$208,200
$208,200
$2,498,400
8
Lalitpur
$9,190,000
$919,000
$1,816,649
$11,028,000
9
Lamjung
$480,000
$48,000
$48,000
$576,000
10
Makawanpur
11
Nuwakot
$897,649
$200,000
$20,000
$20,000
$240,000
$7,326,000
$732,600
$732,600
$8,791,200
12
Ramechhap
$325,000
$32,500
$32,500
$390,000
13
Rasuwa
$300,000
$30,000
$30,000
$360,000
14
Sindhuli
15
Sindhupalchowk
$320,000
$32,000
$32,000
$384,000
$1,500,000
$150,000
$150,000
$1,800,000
16
Tanahun
$200,000
$20,000
$20,000
$240,000
17
Monasteries, historic structures (older
than 100 years)
$53,003,532
$5,300,353
$5,300,353
$63,604,238
18
Monasteries less than 100 years old
$28,345,340
$2,834,534
$2,834,534
$34,014,408
19
Temples in remote areas
$9,000,000
$900,000
$900,000
$10,800,000
20
External technical experts
$600,000
21
Capacity building work shops, specialized training, ICH conference, marketing training, festivals and exhibitions
$650,000
22
Professional support to the Department of Archaeology: equipment and
additional staff
$1,500,000
SUB TOTAL:
TOTAL:
70
$3,044,027
$16,909,887
$169,098,872
$6,217,525
$23,127,412
$205,668,646
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 5.2: Estimated Revenues from Ticket Sales and Museum Admissions in FY 2013-2014
Income of World Heritage sites and museum entrance fees
Visitors for fiscal
year 2013/14
Current ticket
price NRs.
Sub total
NRs.
SAARC
27,546
150
4,131,845
Foreigners
258,553
750
193,914,998
Site/ Museum
Total NRs.
US$
198,046,842
$1,980,468
407,712
$4,077
60,305,459
$603,055
66,101,000
$661,010
110,000,000
$1,100,000
434,861,012
$4,348,610
120,000,000
$1,200,000
Hanuman Dhoka ticket
National Museum (Chauni)
SAARC
880
50
44,023
Foreigners
2,425
150
363,689
Swayambhu
SAARC
133,741
50
6,687,041
Foreigners
268,092
200
53,618,418
Boudha
SAARC
103,075
100
10,307,500
Foreigners
223,174
250
55,793,500
Pashupatinath
SAARC
Foreigners
110,000
1,000
110,000,000
TOTAL FOR KATHMANDU:
Patan
SAARC
100,000
200
20,000,000
Foreigners
200,000
500
100,000,000
Patan Museum
SAARC
6,560
250
1,640,000
Foreigners
16,489
400
6,595,600
TOTAL FOR PATAN:
8,235,600
$82,356
128,235,600
$1,282,356
322,012,285
$3,220,123
2,470,635
$24,706
638,400
$6,384
325,121,320
$3,251,213
Bhaktapur
SAARC
136,975
500
68,487,685
Foreigners
169,016
1,500
253,524,600
Changuu Narayan
SAARC
2,810
40
112,412
Foreigners
23,582
100
2,358,223
Living traditions museum
SAARC
399
100
39,900
Foreigners
2,394
250
598,500
TOTAL FOR BHAKTAPUR:
TOTAL VALUE
$8,882,179
71
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Given the large amount of research and data inputs necessary, additional staff and/or external
experts would have to be hired.
A clear database establishing baseline information
on each site, from location details (including GPS
data) to photographic documentation, historical
information, description of damage (if any); and
a detailed needs assessment to support restoration
planning. This database should be linked to other
sources of information such as the DoA’s own
hand-written archive, Pruscha’s 1975 inventory,
and the ‘Living Apps’ online database.
Creation of a Comprehensive Digital Inventory of all Museum Collections
Most inventory records of Kathmandu’s museums are handwritten, possibly incomplete and
difficult to access. Only the Patan Museum publishes a printed museum guide book that records
all objects and texts on display. Hence, it is of
utmost importance to create complete, digitally
accessible museum inventories for all museums
as soon as possible. This will help safeguard the
collections and help in evaluation and planning
professional restoration of all objects.
Master Plan Development and
Project Planning
DoA, with the support of UNESCO and international experts should develop a master plan/
schedule for the repair, restoration and reconstruction of all collapsed and damaged monuments and sites. The master plan would be
based on the comprehensive documentation of
all affected 694 historic structures with detailed
information regarding the type and degree of
damage. The master plan needs to state a clear
sequence of and a rationale for implementation.
Restoration activities should be distributed between all districts, cities, and sites as evenly as
possible. In general, priority should be given
to repair and restore damaged structures before
tackling ground-up reconstructions. Attention
needs to be paid not only to sites on the World
Heritage list but to smaller and significant
monuments as well.
Detailed project proposals, customized to the
requirement of each building, should address
structural and seismic retrofitting solutions.
Based on an analysis of the effectiveness of
72
past restorations in the face of the earthquake,
DoA should seek the advice of international
experts to develop methods for new earthquake
resilient construction.
Immediate Repair
Many important monuments (e.g. Krishna
Mandir, Vishveshvara and Bhimsen Temples
in Patan, Svayambhu Stupa, Changu Narayan
Temple) have been temporarily shored up but
need immediate major restoration and structural
interventions to ensure that they will not suffer
more damage or collapse in a future earthquake.
Smaller restoration and repair schemes, which
do not need much lead-time and large quantities of materials, should also be initiated immediately. Many smaller structures, monasteries and temples in outlying districts can often
be restored with relatively modest amounts of
funding and with community involvement.
Material Procurement
The large volumes of expected construction may
cause bottlenecks in the supply of timber and
special bricks used for restoration. It would be
prudent to immediately research the feasibility
of creating and supporting environmentallyfriendly methods of brick production, as future
restoration projects will require a ten-fold increase in bricks. Such bricks are unique to the
valley and cannot be procured from anywhere
else. As for the requirements of timber, the government will be sensitive to environmental concerns while addressing this need.
Preservation of Museum Collections
Conservation of artifacts and safeguarding
of museum collections should start as soon
as possible, preferably under the guidance of
specialists in the field of metal, wood, ivory and
painting restoration.
Proposed Capacity-building Workshops and
on-the-job Training for New DoA staff
Workshops on data collection and management should be conducted for DoA’s new staff
to accelerate the production of an inventory
of monuments and detailed condition reports.
Many young professionals will be new to heritage field and will require adequate training to
become familiar with principles and guidelines
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
in the conservation of heritage buildings. During the first year (2015-2016) many emergency
repairs and smaller projects that do not require
huge quantities of materials or time-consuming
preparations will provide the perfect opportunity for new professionals to learn and familiarize
themselves with ground realities.
Workshops for Craftspeople and Artisans
DoA, restoration contractors, and private agencies rely on a network of excellent craftspeople
(carvers, carpenters, masons, metal workers,
etc.) Hence, a comprehensive resource mapping
of these artisans should be carried out immediately to ensure the knowledge, techniques and
approaches are documented for future reference. It is expected that projects will face a severe shortage of craftspeople and will have to
rely on less experienced artisans who will require
adequate training before working on major projects. They should be provided on-the-job training so as work alongside the best in the trade
and learn from them.
Specialized Training for Structural Analysis,
Seismic Retrofitting and Quake-resistant
Construction
Reputed structural engineers from within
and outside Nepal should develop adequate
structural solutions for safer reconstruction
in some projects which could become models
for others to follow.
Design and Engineering Assistance to Communities and Public Awareness Campaigns
Even though construction of private residences
doesn’t fall within the responsibility of the cultural heritage sector, it is highly recommended
that lessons learned from cultural preservation
activities be shared with historic towns and villages. The fabric of urban settlements surrounding monuments also needs to be considered.
Several initiatives of young architects and engineers have already started this work with communities in Sankhu, Bungamati and Bhaktapur.
A public awareness campaign would help to
educate the public on ways in which traditional
materials too can be used to be resilient provided
there is adequate maintenance. Providing direct
technical and design support coupled with extensive training programmes will be important
to increase knowledge and capacity.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Activities from the Second to the Sixth Year
The activities of this period will be adjusted following achievements of the first year, the priorities
of the master plan and of course will depend on
the financing that is secured.
Restoration of all structurally threatened monuments will continue and only after this work is
completed will ground-up reconstruction of fully
collapsed structures should begin. The activities
of the first year (inventory, planning, documentation) will lay the foundation for larger scale
projects. Completed restoration projects must be
professionally documented with a comprehensive
historic structure report produced and shared with
other projects. In order to disseminate information such data should be available online. An additional output would be publication of relevant
training and conservation manuals.
Training programmes and specialized workshops
as described in first-year activities should continue
on a need to basis.
Restoration activities, including volunteer participation, hands-on restoration training, specialized
workshops and guided tours, could be converted
into a special attraction for both foreign and local
visitors. Several thousands of jobs would be created over the years.
Support to Preserve Intangible Cultural Heritage
While costs associated with losses to ICH are
more difficult to quantify than physical damage,
significant immediate and long-term losses are
predicted following the earthquake, particularly
in social practices – rituals, worship, and festivals.
MoCTCA should expand its capacity to include
professional staff with expertise necessary to properly monitor and evaluate losses to ICH. At present there are only three to four technical personnel
working on this subject in the ministry number. A
division dealing with ICH needs to be established,
with capacity building workshops and staff training as a follow-up to the three workshops on implementation, inventorying and nomination held
in Nepal between 2012-2013. Workshops should
be held for different audiences with the participation of the line ministry, local officers, experts,
INGOS and community members to enhance
their capacity and knowledge. Community-based
73
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
workshops on ICH should provide hands-on
technical training for conducting an inventory.
Data management training is also required at
central, district and local levels to efficiently
map Nepal’s intangible cultural heritage.
It is also necessary to create an awareness about
ICH at the local level by working through Village Development Committees and the district
administration. This will require training of local facilitators who can engage people of all ages
(and youth in particular) in discussing community values and identifying key traditions
and needs for sustaining these traditions. Furthermore, links should be established between
communities and national institutions so that
the latter are equipped to quantify and respond
to these needs. A small grant fund could support activities such as purchase of musical instruments, digitalization of texts, or creation of
small community museums.
Community Fund for Safeguarding
Intangible Heritage
It is important to earmark funds that communities could apply for, as they identify needs,
to allow worship and festivals to continue. The
funds could be used to temporarily relocate and
safeguard individual cultural objects necessary
for worship, or entire festivals, performances, or
other cultural events.
National Recognition of Master Craftspeople
Greater national recognition in the form of awards
to master craftspeople, performers or bearers of
traditional knowledge will raise their status and
support the continued use of their skills.
Educational Outreach
A Kathmandu-based ICH conference that invites
national and international scholars and student
will encourage sharing of information about traditions that may be endangered, and methods for
safeguarding and revitalizing them. The conference might also address establishment of an ICH
digital archive, on the model of Digital Himalaya
or other international digital archives. A programme should be instituted for scholars wherein
they should be encouraged to work with vulnerable community groups who have suffered loss
and seek to revive their heritage. This program
could be supported through a programme of one
or more of Nepal’s universities.
74
Particular attention should be paid to involving
youth in ICH programmes. As cultural heritage
is a living phenomenon that is constantly recreated and transmitted from one generation to
the next, there is a risk that the destruction of
so many cultural sites could leave the younger
generation feeling disconnected from their past
and cultural heritage. The strength of a nation’s
tangible and intangible cultural heritage has a
strong connection to cultural identity, continuity of community feeling and overall well-being.
It is this strength that will help communities
unite to rebuild their cultural sites as they rebuild their lives and homes.
Cultural Industries
Artists and craftspeople often depend on a tourist market. The tourist market is likely to decline
for some time, and local purchases may also decline because of less disposable income. Support
will be needed for organizations such as Fair
Trade Group, Nepal, to reach markets overseas
through participation in international trade fairs
and folk art markets. A combination of training for artisans in skills and product development as well as market-readiness support can be
provided by national and international experts.
Gender issues
Cultural activities developed around religion
play an important role in providing support
mechanisms for women and men individually and at the community level. The loss of
livelihood assets centred around such activities
could have a serious impact on the preservation
of traditional skills in textile products such as
the traditional Dhaka cloth weaving, which is
predominantly practised by women, and metal
work done by men. Indigenous and ethnic communities, too, have a strong and unique cultural
heritage, which is an important part if their
identity. Recovery interventions, particularly to
do with housing and relocation should preserve
rather than undermine these cultural heritages.
Policy Needs and Recommendations
Review of restoration and conservation by-laws
The massive loss of life caused by collapsing historic buildings makes it mandatory to rethink
existing conservation laws. Restrictions on modern materials in conservation work need to be re-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
viewed defined anew according to the concepts of
disaster risk reduction and building back better.
Professional Support to DoA
It is estimated that DoA’s workload will increase
six fold over the coming six years. This will require upgrading of facilities and equipment (vehicles, computers, professional tools) and hiring
of professional staff in all sectors. Modalities
have to be found to allow DoA to recruit professionals from the free market, which will require
competitive remuneration.
Review of Revenue Generation and Investments in Cultural Preservation
Over the past decade Nepal has developed a
system of not only charging entry fees to museums, cultural institutions and specific sites such
as temples and palaces but also levying fees for
visiting historic town centres and villages. Bhaktapur was the first of the three former royal cities
in the Kathmandu Valley that started collecting
tourist fees for entering the town. In Bhaktapur,
the municipality oversees and manages the collection system and has been responsible for investing a good portion of the income for preservation work. An estimated yearly income of over
US$ 3 million has provided substantial progress
in restoring and preserving historic monuments.
Kathmandu and Patan municipalities followed
Bhaktapur’s example and set up similar systems
with estimated yearly incomes of US$ 2 milllion
and US$ 1 million, respectively. It is important
to ensure that a streamlined collection system
is developed and administered in a transparent
manner to ensure that the revenues collected for
visiting cultural heritage sites will be invested directly in the restoration effort and not diverted
to other purposes. Table 5.2 provides an overview
of the substantial income potential from World
Heritage Sites and Museum Entrance Fees.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Implementation Arrangements
In the past DoA has handled an average budget of less than US$ 2 million per year. Since
its activities are bound to increase drastically,
the agency will have to hire additional staff and
experts, and procure equipment and logistical
support.
Further, new ways of sharing responsibilities and
engaging different partners and agencies must
be identified to accelerate the documentation,
planning and restoration processes. A mechanism for the coordination of all cultural heritage
activities will be created under the overall authority of the Ministry of Culture, Tourism and
Civil Aviation, with the participation of Ministry of Physical Planning, Ministry of Urban
Development, Ministry of Federal Affairs and
Local Development, Ministry of Home Affairs,
UNESCO Kathmandu, reputed national and
international experts and, when appropriate,
representatives of development partners.
For the implementation of restoration activities,
responsibilities should be fixed at three levels:
• The restoration of village monasteries, temples and non-listed monuments shall be the
responsibility of local communities. DoA
should act as the overall advisory agency, but
day-to-day responsibilities in the management, procurement of materials, reporting
and financial accounting will lie with the local communities.
• The restoration of listed monuments, including those that are part of World Heritage
Sites, will continue to be under the direct
supervision and management of DoA.
• Large scale restoration projects that are financed by private and/or international development partners should be implemented
on a turn-key basis under close supervision
by professionals from the industry, with DoA
providing oversight.
75
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
76
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
PRODUCTIVE
SECTORS
Agriculture
Irrigation
Commerce and Industry
Tourism
Financial Sector
77
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
78
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
6. Agriculture
Summary
Damages and losses in the agriculture sector due
to the earthquakes were prominent, affecting
around one million already poor small farming
households in 24 districts.38 Among the affected
farmers, women-headed farm households and
those managed by the elderly suffered the most.
The earthquakes damaged crop lands, physical
infrastructure (mainly small irrigation systems,
poly houses, livestock shelters, agricultural tools,
equipment and machinery), mills, office buildings, service centres, laboratories and residential
premises in government installations. Production losses occurred especially in the agricultural
crop and livestock subsectors, specifically for
animal fodder, fruit, potatoes, mushroom and
vegetables, livestock, poultry, fish and fingerlings, cash crops, stock for seed and animal feed,
egg and honey production, and stored food
grains. The production losses include the value
of production oft he lost crops, increased cost of
production and estimated production losses in
subsequent seasons.
Recovery in the agriculture sector focuses on immediate activities aimed at the restoration of production levels in crop, livestock and fisheries over
a period of 12 months. Reconstruction will focus on replacement of destroyed equipment and
machinery and reconstruction/rehabilitation of
damaged physical infrastructure with improved,
disaster-resilient standards over a period of 36
months. The agriculture sector recovery strategy and plan will involve different government
agencies and other stakeholders. The executing
agency of the agriculture recovery and reconstruction plan will be Ministry of Agricultural
Development (MoAD) and the implementation
will be by Department of Agriculture (DoA),
Department of Livestock Services (DLS) and
Nepal Agriculture Research Council (NARC)
with support from development partners, specifically those with proven technical expertise and
comparative advantage in the agriculture sector.
Given the urgency of the situation, a ‘fast track’
mechanism with required delegation of authority
within the institutional framework of the Government of Nepal will be applied and the activities under both recovery and reconstruction will
have to start simultaneously.
Pre-Disaster Context
and Baseline
The agriculture sector in the Post Disaster Needs
Assessment (PDNA) includes the subsectors
of crop, livestock, fisheries and small irrigation
systems that fall under the jurisdiction of the
MoAD. Needs assessment of the forestry subsector is included under the environment and
forestry chapter.
Agriculture is the biggest employer in Nepal,
particularly in rural areas, and is the main contributor to household level food and nutrition
security of the rural population. Nearly 80 percent of Nepal’s nearly 28 million inhabitants and
60 percent of the labour force is dependent on
agriculture.39 Male out-migration in large numbers has left women to perform farm activities
in the villages. Women contribute 60 percent in
crop production and 70 percent in livestock and
poultry production.40 The agriculture sector contributes approximately one-third of the national
GDP in a country with low per capita annual income (NPR 72,000, or US$720). Agriculture is
largely subsistence with low productivity; farmers
are small-holders with average farm size of 0.68
hectares. Landholding is not distributed equally
among different ethnic groups. Ethnic communities mostly own land on the hill slopes; the
Dalit community in particular has smaller size
of landholdings. In value terms, crop production
is dominant– rice, maize, wheat, potatoes and
Though the government reports that the earthquakes affected 33 out of 75 districts, this needs assessment of the agriculture sector was conducted in 24 of the most-affected
districts, namely, Okhaldhunga, Ramechhap, Dolakha, Sindhupalchowk, Rasuwa, Dhading, Nuwakot, Kathmandu, Lalitpur, Bhaktapur, Kavre, Makawanpur, Gorkha,
Sindhuli, Gulmi, Lamjung, Solukhumbu, Tanahun, Bhojpur, Kaski, Palpa, Khotang, Chitwan and Syangja.
39
Central Bureau of Statistics, 2014, Population Monograph of Nepal, Vol. III
40
Central Bureau of Statistics, 2014, Population Monograph of Nepal, Vol. III
38
79
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
vegetables are the main products. Monsoon rice is
the single most important product with an average production of 4.62 million tonnes over the
last five years from a planted area of 1.48 million
hectares. Wheat production is about 1.78 million
tonnes from about 0.75 million hectares.
Green vegetables are largely grown in districts
neighbouring major cities like Kathmandu,
Pokhara and Biratnagar, and the total area covered by vegetables is about 0.25 million hectares over the last five years. Average vegetable
production is 3.24 million tonnes and includes
cabbage, cauliflower, radish, onion, tomato,
leafy vegetables, cucumber, okra, and aubergine.
Off-season vegetables and mushroom are grown
commercially with many small farmers using
poly houses in peri-urban areas. Volume of vegetable and mushroom production has increased
in recent years, which is attributed to increased
investments in equipment, machinery and inputs. Though around 54 percent of farmland is
irrigated in the country, majority of the small
farmers with marginal land in hill tracts are deprived of irrigation services. Cultivation of cash
crops, such as tea, coffee, cardamom and ginger
Table 6.1: Baseline Production of Major Agricultural Products in 24 Most-affected Districts (20132014) (tonnes)
District
Cereals
Cash crop
Fruits
Vegetables
Fish
Milk
Meat
1
Rasuwa
11,199
11,199
1,247
40,457
1
4,544
949
2
Nuwakot
149,465
149,465
4,134
103,623
27
33,586
5,769
3
Gorkha
108,111
108,111
9,843
49,477
20
17,166
4,174
4
Dhading
114,116
114,116
6,314
100,945
37
36,280
4,804
5
Dolakha
28,302
28,302
2,651
45,906
1
16,886
1,831
6
Sindhupalchowk
111,718
111,718
4,050
96,590
11
24,954
4,196
7
Kathmandu
92,404
92,404
2,190
83,196
23
14,705
10,872
8
Bhaktapur
46,821
46,821
299
75,971
14
11,474
2,478
9
Lalitpur
62,895
62,895
1,248
66,400
21
17,967
5,864
10
Kavre
105,236
105,236
13,772
314,783
19
80,767
6,394
11
Ramechhap
96,522
96,522
12,335
42,681
1
21,461
2,917
12
Sindhuli
130,138
130,138
10,583
48,177
9
19,248
4,196
13
Okhaldhunga
54,044
54,044
1,782
49,737
1
15,544
2,964
14
Makawanpur
121,564
121,564
1,510
115,376
129
36,189
4,654
15
Gulmi
96,290
96,290
3,047
12,846
6
20,155
2,095
16
Lamjung
109,024
109,024
8,306
59,775
24
15,792
2,069
17
Solukhumbu
41,519
41,519
2,133
161,085
0
9,695
2,330
18
Tanahun
139,660
139,660
10,892
39,542
42
39,953
4,435
19
Bhojpur
183,434
183,434
5,532
57,527
1
16,219
2,694
20
Kaski
166,000
166,000
7,571
52,455
78
39,477
6,940
21
Palpa
92,623
92,623
10,397
42,683
18
29,051
3,336
22
Khotang
148,815
148,815
11,575
187,603
5
21,487
3,152
23
Chitwan
161,349
161,349
3,756
121,649
1644
43,629
12,551
24
Syangja
174,009
174,009
13,700
57,430
44
57,473
4,101
Total
2,545,258
2,545,258
148,866
2,025,914
2,174
643,701
105,765
Source: Data from MoAD 2014
80
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
is on the rise, and around 0.06 million hectares
of land is occupied by such cash crops. Average
area under fruits (including apple and mango)
during the last five years is 0.15 million hectares. Over the last decade, due to increased outmigration of youth, the agriculture sector has
experienced severe shortage of labour and has
become increasingly dependent on women, and
other vulnerable and older people. Unattractive
income from agriculture has pushed majority of
rural male members seeking jobs to urban areas
or abroad, which has increased the burden of
farming on women. Due to this ever-increasing
trend, 26 percent of rural households are headed
by women, who also take care of farm management in addition to other household work.
Moreover, over 70 percent of agricultural labour
is contributed by women.41 Though remittance
flow is rising, it is mainly used for consumption
rather than investment in productive sectors.
The MoA is the mainline ministry responsible
for agricultural development. The DoA oversees
the crop and fisheries subsectors; the DLS is
responsible for the livestock subsector. MoAD
is also responsible for supporting farmers for
small, farmer-managed irrigation schemes.
A diversity of crops is grown in Nepal, rice being the major staple in low altitude areas and
maize, millet and barley in high altitude areas.
Potato is another important crop widely grown
by rural farmers as a staple crop in mountain
regions. Maize is planted during April and millet planting starts in June. Farm households
generally maintain a small kitchen garden in the
backyard. Farmers have cowsheds and pens for
goat and poultry at home. A few livestock like
buffaloes, cows, bullocks, yak, goats, sheep and
pigs are raised by most households depending
on altitude and ethnicity. Yak, goat and sheep
are mainly reared in high altitude areas. The
animals are generally fed with home-made feed
and fodder, sometimes also mixed with feed
concentrates. Bullocks are the main source of
draft power in hill areas. Some poultry birds are
reared in homes. Livestock and poultry not only
supplements household level food security and
nutrition, but also generates some cash for the
families through sale of live animals, milk and
meat products. Livestock is also used for ploughing and transportation in mountain areas.
41
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Farmers store their farm produce and seed at
home, generally on the top floor of their typically two-storey mud-wall houses. Most farmers
store their home-saved seeds in jute or polythene bags, or earthen pots. Only a few farmers
use metal bins for food and seed storage. Seed
replacement rate in Nepal is only 12 percent,
meaning that farmers on an average change their
seed stock only after 8.5 years. Animal feed is
stored at home for protection against sun and
rain. Hand tools normally used for farming are
also generally stored inside the house whereas
bigger farm implements and machinery are kept
close to the house.
Despite being an agriculture dominant country,
approximately 15 percent of the population still
suffers from inadequacy of food, with femaleheaded households and subsistence farmers as
the most food insecure. Nearly half the districts
in Nepal (31 out of 75) are considered food deficit. Ironically, nearly half the 24 earthquake-affected districts surveyed fall within the net food
deficit area. Most farmers in this area depend
more on coarse grains than the preferred staple
food, rice. Nearly 20 percent of rice and 60 percent of maize and millets in Nepal are produced
in this area, which is inhabited by 31 percent of
the population.
Post-Disaster Context
The devastating earthquake of 25 April followed
by frequent aftershocks and a second quake on
12 May was the cause of the deaths of thousands
of people. Several more were injured. Key infrastructure, including agriculture infrastructure,
was either damaged or destroyed. Nearly 3.5
million people were considered vulnerable with
immediate food needs, out of which 1.4 million people were considered highly vulnerable
requiring immediate food assistance.42
Damages and losses in the agriculture sector
are significant. The estimated number of small
and vulnerable farming households affected in
the 24 districts is around 1 million, with female headed households outnumbering male.
Small and vulnerable farming households, in
particular the ones with average landholding of
less than 0.7 hectares and three to five heads of
livestock, and those managed by the elderly and
women suffered the most.
Central Bureau of Statistics, 2011-12, National Sample Census of Agriculture
81
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Rice and millet grains harvested in November
and stored inside the house as food stock
were largely damaged when houses collapsed.
Some maize is being recovered; however it is
not suitable for human consumption. Some
areas with standing wheat and vegetables were
affected by landslides. Losses to wheat were
caused by hailstorms and the crop over-matured
due to lack of attention as households were too
busy managing family crises. Productivity of
standing maize will also be lower as intercultural
operations were delayed. Some vegetables crops,
including those grown in poly houses, were lost
as the land was cleared to put up temporary
shelters. In some districts, such as Gorkha and
Rasuwa, the maize crop has fallen prey to the
devastating damage caused by army worms.
Apart from big quantities of grain stocks, seeds
(mainly rice and millet), tools, agricultural
machinery and some fertilizer stocks were also
damaged. There were reports of damage to farm
machinery and equipment (e.g., water pumps,
generator, tillers, etc.), milk cans, chilling
vats, mills, bee hives and equipment for fish
production. Animals, mainly cattle that were
tied close to the house, were killed or injured
by the earthquake whereas death or injury of
the small ruminants that had been left free to
graze was less. Commercial farms, mainly for
milk cows and poultry, equally suffered losses
and damages. During the field visits, farmers
reported animals were subjected to abortion and
stress syndromes and many were consuming
less feed than usual, directly affecting milk
production. Some farmers reported that milk
produced per animal had reduced by up to 50
percent. Damage to poultry farms have also
affected the supply of chicken to local markets.
More numbers of animals were reported injured,
which if not provided with timely veterinary
care, could die in the coming months due to
weakness and injuries. Along with human
shelter, damage to animal shelters was a major
concern among the farmers.
Districts such as Dhading, Rasuwa, Sindhupalchowk, Nuwakot and Dolakha are well
known for small-scale rainbow trout farming.
Many trout farms suffered direct damage to the
raceways as well as loss of fish and fingerlings.
Food Security Cluster, Flash Appeal, April 2015
42
82
Cheese making, an important activity in a few
districts, has also suffered damage to infrastructure and machinery directly affecting production and livelihood opportunities.
Farm power in Nepal mainly comes from human and animal labour. Loss of labour in the
agriculture sector was reported due to death
and injury of family members, migration, additional burden of survival and safety, and fear
of life linked to aftershocks. Increase in male
labour out-migration is more likely to recover
losses in income and livelihood caused by the
earthquakes, which could increase the feminization of agriculture. Some families under crisis,
too traumatized to resume their usual activities,
face difficulty in keeping their animals due to
damage to shelters, lack of feed and no time for
caring for the livestock. These factors could not
only decrease food production substantially, but
also disrupt the production system if appropriate measures are not adopted. Some farmers,
especially in landslide-prone areas, are currently
living with the fear of further landslides during
the monsoon. Few are currently displaced, and
they may wait until the frequency of aftershocks
has reduced. Farmers in villages are spending
as high as 30 percent of their time waiting for
relief, a situation which could continue for a
while. With frequent aftershocks, people are
mentally stressed. Meanwhile, majority of the
staff in the public sector have not been able to
spend time with their families since the disaster,
resulting in additional mental stress on them affecting delivery of services.
Disaster Effects and Impacts
Areas in some of the most-affected districts
reported cracks in both upland and irrigated
fields. Nearly 1,000 hectares of land have been
rendered useless due to landslides and land slips;
these lands will most likely not be recovered.
Internally displaced people from higher land
reported huge landslides damaging their maize
crop and killing their livestock; crops and livestock were left behind unattended. Damaged irrigation systems pose a threat to standing crops
as well as indicate further risk of losing subsequent crops if not immediately repaired. Area
planted under rice is likely to go down and area
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
under millet may increase. However, the productivity of rain-fed millet is about three times
less than that of rice. This will substantially decrease food production in the affected districts.
Given the tremendous need for managing shelter, food and other most essential items, farmers
are unable to spend time in the field tending to
crops or maintaining livestock. Farmers in some
of the most-affected districts feared production
losses as high as 50 percent. The earthquakes
have severely affected the vegetable and mushroom production value chain in Kathmandu,
Dhading, Gorkha, Nuwakot and Bhaktapur
districts due to damage to poly houses.
Several office buildings and official residences
of the District Agriculture Development Office
(DADO) and District Livestock Service Office
(DLSO) are damaged. Damage to agriculture
and livestock service centres that provide direct services to farmers have seriously disrupted
extension and livestock support services. In
addition, damage to a large number of physical facilities, such as training halls, laboratories, garages, boundary walls, toilets, livestock
farms, seed stores, water tanks, pump houses,
quarantine offices, cooperatives, milk collection centres and chilling centres, both public
and private, have seriously jeopardized crop and
livestock production. Damage to access roads in
upland areas by landslides have affected the sale
of farm produce, particularly perishable vegetables and milk. These losses will discourage farmers, decreasing their efforts in production, which
could lead to decreased production. Moreover,
already seasonal roads in many villages are
likely to be blocked during the rainy season
aggravating further the problems in farm
production and marketing.
Effects on Production of Goods and
Services and Access to Services
The main drivers in decline are crop production
and livestock products. Efforts by farmers to support other farmer families, collecting relief materials, construction of temporary shelters and excavation of personal belongings have diverted their
time away from farm operations, causing delay
in or absence of intercultural operations of maize
(particularly weeding, thinning and fertilizer application) and maintaining livestock. Disrupted
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
market systems and lack of labour, exacerbated by
the frequent aftershocks, and other urgent family priorities, have significantly affected production flows. Damaged shelters, lack of food and
cash in families and their inability to come out
of the state of shock has made the situation desperate. The time to prepare nursery beds for rice
and millet is fast approaching; the stored seed is
however buried under the rubble. Farmers may
either have no money to buy new seed or the seed
may not be available locally. Seeds provided by
external agencies are either not sufficient to cover
overall needs or they might not be supplied in
time. These factors may hinder the farmers from
accessing required inputs that could pose the risk
of almost 30 percent of the land area in the hills
remaining uncultivated. This would significantly
reduce production, affecting overall household
food security and income. Meanwhile, a part of
the standing spring rice and maize crops can still
be harvested; however, farmers have no storage
facilities. Damages caused by army worm could
also lower production flows.
Damage to livestock shelters, death and injury
of livestock, malnutrition and the risk of animal and zoonotic disease epidemics among the
surviving livestock due to insufficient feed, fodder and animal health support could largely affect productivity of the livestock, which in turn
would affect production of meat and milk products. Loss of forage seed and damages to pasture
land could further aggravate the situation.
Damage to district and rural service centres have
affected access to crop and livestock extension
services. Extension and animal health workers,
whose numbers were low to begin with, have
been diverted to relief operations and are busy
caring for their own families. Access roads to
remote villages are damaged, and logistics and
transportation facilities available with the service
centres are inadequate. Meanwhile, farmers due
to other priorities, are unavailable or unwilling
to access the limited services. Such a situation
causes decreased access to agricultural extension
and veterinary services. This is a particular challenge for women who do most of the agricultural work, but receive only 30 percent of the
extension services, and Dalits who often live in
remote areas and far from district headquarters.
83
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Effects on Governance
Agriculture service delivery is affected by death
and injury of technicians, damage to office
buildings and equipment and service delivery
stations, and deployment of technicians to relief
operations. Operating out of tents or temporary
sheds was seriously hampering the efficiency
and effectiveness of civil servants. Lack of basic
amenities in their duty stations is further aggravating their physical and mental condition.
Meanwhile, the efforts of government agencies
are focused on crisis management, hindering
regular service delivery and governance. Efforts of veterinary experts have been diverted to
treatment of injured livestock and agricultural
experts are putting their efforts behind food assistance and seed support in order to meet the
fast approaching rice planting season. In addition, the technical staff are busy participating in
District Disaster Response Committee (DDRC)
meetings as well as updating data on damages
and losses and information for immediate needs
to resume farm activities and reinstate livelihood to rural farmers. During the meetings, the
PDNA team realized that DADO and DLSO
are heavily occupied with relief and recovery
work. They are over-stretched and a clear need
for operational flexibility was realized to cope
with the emergency situation.
Risk and Vulnerabilities
The earthquakes increased the fragility of the
food production systems making poor and marginal farmers, including the elderly and women, more vulnerable to other possible future
disasters. The earthquakes seriously impacted
agriculture-based livelihood in the affected districts increasing their vulnerability to hunger
and food insecurity. The loss of farm land and
other productive assets, and the risk of having
land uncultivated on the hill slopes of the mostaffected districts, further increases the risks of
decreased production and food insecurity in the
coming months and in the next couple of years
with far-reaching negative impacts. Basic food
and nutrition packages currently being provided
as humanitarian relief material is neither enough
to feed the family in the long run nor sustainable. Furthermore, some vulnerable farmers are
indebted and, given the current situation, it will
be extremely difficult for them to pay back the
capital with interest. Though policy exists, most
84
farmers do not have access to insurance services
to insure their crop, houses or livestock. Unless these farmers are supported to restore their
production capacity with appropriate policy and
operational interventions, their vulnerabilities
are likely to exacerbate further.
With the increasing trend of male out-migration, the vulnerable percentage of women-headed households may face exclusion from recovery
and reconstruction support programmes if not
targeted specifically. Furthermore, the likelihood of increase in cost of production due to
inflation and price hike may further negatively
impact women-headed households and other
vulnerable groups.
Effects on risks could be multi-fold. Seeds supplied from outside sources need to fit into the
agro-climatic conditions of the district to avoid
a risk of crop failure and it should be done in
close coordination with the DADOs. Recovery assistance should emphasize protecting local biodiversity. Farmers are facing difficulty
in managing the carcasses appropriately, and
microbes from such dead animals can find
their way to water sources, spreading diseases
to surviving animals. Adapted breed of livestock
and fingerlings need to be ensured. These risks
however may not equally affect all the farmers
in the 24 districts. Poor and marginal farmers
with injured members and the elderly are more
vulnerable to risks in production loss, food insecurity and decreased livelihood conditions. Further, women and girls are more vulnerable than
men to natural and other hazards and farmers
with farm lands in high mountain areas or flood
plains are more vulnerable to landslides and
floods caused by the earthquakes.
Damaged farm lands due to ground cracks and
slipping of mountain sides are additionally exposed to landslide risks during the monsoon due
to seepage of water. Damming of the Kaligandaki
River and recent landslides are warning signals of
a similar situation in some of the most affected areas during the monsoon, which could submerge
huge swathes of farm lands, seriously affecting the
environment and the lives and livelihood of thousands of people. Meanwhile, high magnitude
earthquakes followed by frequent aftershocks
have altered the geological systems, changing wa-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
ter springs which can affect water supply in the
farms leading to decrease in crop productivity.
Damages and Losses
The estimates of the value of damages and losses
are summarized in Table 6.2. The total damages
and losses in the agriculture sector amount to
about NPR 28,366 million.
The earthquakes have damaged crop lands;
stored food grain; seed and feed stocks; physical infrastructure, mainly office buildings, service centres, mills, laboratories, small irrigation
systems, poly houses, residential premises in
government installations, livestock shelters, and
small dairies and cooperatives; and agriculture
tools, equipment and machinery. Based on the
data compiled from the 24 affected districts the
total damages reported to the agriculture sector
amounts to approximately NPR 16,405 million. Damages to physical infrastructure are estimated by using current refurbishment/reconstruction costs for the respective types of works
and replacement/repair costs for infrastructure
and machinery.
Production losses especially occurred in the agricultural crop and livestock subsectors. Districts
reported loss of production for different crops,
animal fodder, potatoes, mushroom and vegetable production, livestock, fish and fingerlings,
and cash crops.The total lost value of production
estimated in the affected districts for the agriculture sector amounts to nearly NPR 11,962
million, which also includes value of production ofthe lost crops, higher production costsand estimated production loss in subsequent
seasons. The decline in livestock production in
subsequent seasons,such as reduced milk and
meat supply, egg production and honey, is also
included.
According to the MDG 2013 report, Nepal
was on track and likely to achieve most of its
MDGs, including poverty reduction, despite
the prolonged political instability in the country. Agriculture is one of the major sectors of
the economy which was facing the challenges
of meeting labour demand due to increasing
trend of foreign employment. The sector now
is severely affected by the earthquakes, and this
situation could push the sector further into cri-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
sis resulting in low production and abandoned
farms. Achievement of the MDG goals with
sustainable economy and employment growth
may therefore remain a challenge. An impact
analysis of the earthquakes is therefore needed
to find out the extent of dislocation of the progress paths of the country to achieve MDGs and
other development goals such as poverty reduction, food security, economic growth and graduating from least developed country status to a
developing country.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
The overall recovery and reconstruction of the
agriculture sector is estimated at NPR 15,560
million out of which NPR 3,579 million (23
percent) is required for immediate recovery
in the short-term (next 12 months) and NPR
11,981 million (76 percent) is required for
reconstruction of the sector in the medium term
(over a period of 36 months). The notion of
build back better (BBB) has been taken into account while estimating the reconstruction needs
with the overall aim of enhancing resilience of
small, vulnerable farmers. Given the urgency of
the situation, activities under both recovery and
reconstruction will have to start simultaneously.
The Food Security Cluster appealed for US$
98.6 million in the revised Flash Appeal, with
larger share of the appealed amount for emergency food assistance. Since there are several
food security cluster partners providing emergency relief food assistance to the affected
vulnerable families in the districts, which is
expected to continue for some more time, the
estimated agriculture sector recovery and reconstruction needs therefore do not cover humanitarian food assistance needs.
Recovery in the agriculture sector focuses on
immediate activities aimed at restoration of production levels in crop, livestock and fisheries.
Specifically, recovery needs include:
(i) Provision of inputs for crop planting,
(ii)
Provision of inputs for restoration
of fisheries, and
(iii)
Provision of inputs and veterinarian
assistance for livestock.
Immediate intervention is needed for supply of
millet seeds along with fertilizer; seed for wheat,
85
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
1.Replacement of tools and machinery for
crops, livestock and fisheries
2. Restocking of lost animal stock
3.Reconstruction/rehabilitation of agriculture
infrastructure, such as animal shelters, office
buildings, agriculture and livestock service
centres, laboratories, collection centres and
markets, chilling vats/centres, poly houses
for vegetables and mushroom, and poultry
farms
4.Reconstruction/rehabilitation of fish ponds
and raceways
5. Immediate repair and rehabilitation of small
farmer-managed irrigation systems.
Opportunities need to be explored to replace the
machinery, equipment, poly houses and other
productive assets at subsidized prices. Furthermore, multi-hazard resilient community grain
storage and animal shelters, and community
barley and potatoes for the October-November
planting season; and seasonal vegetable seeds.
Grain bags and metal bins also need to be immediately provided to the farmers to store their
currently standing maize and recently harvested
wheat crop. Provision of seedlings needs to be
made for the revitalization of fruit production.
Priority needs for immediately recovering livestock production are proper management of
carcasses to prevent possible spread of diseases,
treatment of injured animals, and supply of feed
concentrate and vaccinations. Provision of rainbow trout and other fish mother stock in fish
hatcheries, and resumption of fish breeding and
fry production is urgently needed.
Reconstruction needs within the next three
years will include:
Table 6.2: Summary Estimatesof DamagesandLosses (NPR million)
Particulars
A
Crops, fishes and bees
1
Standing crop loss
2
Expected future crop production loss
3
Machinery and tools
4
Infrastructure
5
Fisheries
6
Stored seed stock
7
Stored food grain stock
8
Other stored crops and inputs stock
43
Total
B
Livestock and poultry
1
Livestock death
2
Expected future livestock production loss
3
Livestock feed damage
4
Other livestock inputs
5
Machinery and tools
6
Infrastructure
-
6,918.82
6,918.82
-
2,263.99
2,263.99
183.11
-
183.11
1,253.14
-
1,253.14
18.73
30.31
49.04
775.32
-
775.32
6,656.82
-
6,656.82
117.85
-
117.85
9,004.98
9,213.12
18,218.10
2,302.22
-
2,302.22
-
2,717.51
2,717.51
138.24
-
138.24
0.63
-
0.63
-
8.60
-
4,949.92
7,399.61
2,717.51
10,117.12
Production losses due to damage in irrigation systems
-
31.10
31.10
Total
-
31.10
31.10
16,404.59
11,961.73
28,366.32
Irrigation
Grand total
Including small farmer-managed irrigation system
86
Total
8.60
Source: Estimated from data reported by MoAD, DoA, DLS, DADO and DLSO
43
Losses
4,949.92
Total
C
Damages
9244.22
18218.73
18218.73
200.44
332.92
143.39
04.25
225.64
100.60
128.10
89.63
105.87
87.89
16700.01
305.84
295.05
752.15
286.52
204.14
221.78
361.70
617.70
2490.41
1220.40
5870.95
1250.82
2593.53
229.01
Total Effect
Source: Estimated from data reported by MoAD, DoA, DLS, DADO and DLSO
9005.61
9213.12
Grand total
9005.61
Total of 24 districts
167.14
31.10
33.30
Syangja
24
260.26
131.09
81.01
188.39
99.70
116.87
23.38
97.33
65.79
7982.17
128.99
158.05
451.93
71.07
80.25
113.15
185.71
176.05
1414.82
885.40
2247.71
752.79
1294.68
21.55
Losses
Crop subsector
7398.98
7398.98
1.20
9.24
1.07
0.23
107.68
0.68
3.59
8.38
37.10
0.15
7229.67
164.77
1198.55
160.42
55.61
151.29
63.71
84.35
117.18
3382.00
151.42
943.46
353.84
163.77
239.28
Damages
2717.51
2717.51
178.53
248.78
86.17
105.40
172.10
68.82
143.11
49.77
60.36
70.49
1533.98
137.27
70.54
93.66
83.29
258.45
110.79
55.55
163.55
106.50
59.97
139.28
88.71
144.80
21.61
Losses
10116.49
10116.49
179.73
258.02
87.24
105.63
279.79
69.50
146.70
58.15
97.46
70.64
8763.64
302.04
1269.09
254.08
138.90
409.74
174.51
139.90
280.73
3488.50
211.39
1082.73
442.55
308.57
260.90
Total Effect
Livestock subsector
16404.59
16404.59
34.50
81.90
13.37
23.47
144.93
1.58
14.81
74.63
45.64
22.25
15947.51
341.62
1335.55
460.64
271.06
275.17
172.35
260.35
558.84
4457.60
486.41
4566.69
851.87
1462.62
446.74
Damages
11961.73
31.10
11930.63
345.67
509.04
217.26
186.41
360.49
168.52
259.99
73.15
157.69
136.27
9516.15
266.26
228.60
545.59
154.36
338.71
223.94
241.26
339.60
1521.31
945.37
2386.99
841.51
1439.48
43.17
Losses
28,366.32
31.10
28335.22
380.17
590.94
230.62
209.88
505.43
170.10
274.80
147.78
203.33
158.52
25463.65
607.88
1564.15
1006.23
425.42
613.88
396.29
501.61
898.44
5978.91
1431.78
6953.68
1693.37
2902.10
489.91
Total Effect
Agriculture total
90.82
53.47
83.46
71.64
31.84
75.84
43.04
29.38
54.26
17.83
82.02
94.33
61.32
95.52
80.31
78.05
77.05
91.44
88.37
98.57
99.07
95.47
97.59
93.24
96.33
81.48
Private
(%)
9.18
46.53
16.54
28.36
68.16
24.16
56.96
70.62
45.74
82.17
17.98
5.67
38.68
4.48
19.69
21.95
22.95
8.56
11.63
1.43
0.93
4.53
2.41
6.76
3.67
18.52
Public
(%)
l
Crop loss due to
damage to irrigation
systems
12.30
72.66
Khotang
Chitwan
23.25
Palpa
21
22
37.25
Kaski
20
23
11.23
0.90
Tanahun
66.25
Solukhumbu
17
Bhojpur
8.54
Lamjung
16
18
22.10
Gulmi
15
19
176.85
14
8717.84
137.00
Okhaldhunga
13
Makawanpur
300.22
Sindhuli
12
Total of 14 districts
123.89
215.45
Kavre
Ramechhap
108.63
Lalitpur
9
10
176.00
Bhaktapur
8
11
1075.60
441.65
Sindhupalchowk
Kathmandu
334.99
Dolakha
5
6
3623.24
Dhading
4
7
1298.85
498.03
Nuwakot
Gorkha
2
3
207.46
Rasuwa
Damages
1
District
Table 6.3: District-wise Summary of Damages and Losses (NPR million)
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
87
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
nurseries for paddy, millets, herbs and fruit trees
will be promoted in the districts. Meanwhile,
policy will be developed to encourage commercial livestock farming (dairy, piggery, poultry
and goat farming) in specific locations away
from human settlements adopting Good Agriculture Practices (GAP) and Good Veterinary
Practices (GVP) to achieve biosecurity and also
with a view to exporting the livestock products
from such farms in the longer run.
Overall, their construction needs also include
an estimated additional 30 percent BBB cost
and associated management support cost. Better
technologies will be used to reconstruct animal
shelters, irrigation canals, fish ponds and race
courses. Reconstruction of office buildings will
incorporate concerns of women, elderly and
disabled farmers, and employees in addition to
structural strengthening. Opportunities will be
explored to relocate the office buildings to make
them structurally safer and more resilient.
Implementation Arrangements
As the agricultural sector recovery plan spans
different agencies in the government, including
research and extension departments and other
stakeholders such as farmers, private sector,
scientific communities, local cooperatives, forest user groups and CBOs/NGOs, the implementation will be done in coordination with all
such relevant stakeholders, as appropriate. The
executing agency will be MoAD and implementation will be done by DoA, DLS and NARC
with support from development partners, specifically the ones with proven technical expertise
and clear comparative advantages in the agriculture sector. Given the urgency of the situation, a
‘fast track’ mechanism with required delegation
of authority within the existing institutional
framework of the Government of Nepal will
be applied. Necessary human resources will be
deployed to this institutional set up for implementation and monitoring of recovery and reconstruction activities along with provision of
equipment and vehicles. Since women-headed
households may find it difficult to access the services, they will be specially targeted while providing support for recovery and reconstruction.
Training of women technicians will be emphasized to better access female farmers.
A robust monitoring and evaluation system will
be developed to ensure efficacy, efficiency and
transparency of implementation that gathers
gender disaggregated information. The sector
implementation strategy will align with the government’s overall priorities for the agriculture sector as reflected in the Agriculture Development
Strategy (ADS) as well as the Immediate Plan of
Action for earthquake recovery, specifically:
• Increased technical and financial support
Table 6.4: Recovery and Reconstruction Needsin the Agriculture Sector (NPR million)44
Financial Year (NPR million)
Total
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
Recovery activities
3,579
-
-
3,579
Supply of agriculture inputs
2,755
-
-
2,755
9
-
-
9
Supply of fishery inputs
Supply of livestock inputs
815
-
-
815
7,189
3,594
1,198
11,981
Replacement of agriculture inputs/tools/machineries
840
420
140
1,399
Reconstruction of agricultural infrastructures
977
489
163
1,629
Reconstruction activities
Reconstruction of fish ponds and race courses
Restocking livestock
Replacement of livestock inputs/tools/machineries
Reconstruction of livestock infrastructures
Total
15
7
2
24
1,381
691
230
2,302
115
58
19
192
3,861
1,930
643
6,435
10,768
3,594
1,198
15,561
The budget needed for recovery and reconstruction is in addition to the usual agricultural budget allocated to MoAD, and the annual increment over that budget.
44
88
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
to women farmers, small farmers and agribusiness with special emphasison cereals,
vegetable and cash crop farming, livestock
and poultry farming, and aquaculture as per
the different agro-ecological zones in the
earthquake-affected districts;
• Improved management of farmer-managed
irrigation systems and water use efficiency;
• Strengthened marketing of agriculture products with value addition; and
• Increased quality and safety of agricultural
and agro-processing products.
The agriculture sector implementation strategy
will have special focus on gender specific targeting ensuring access of women, ethnic minorities,
the under-privileged, elderly and other marginal
vulnerable farmers to technology and financial
resources, and be based on) recovery interventions, which would immediately address urgent
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
needs tomaintainand restore productivity in
the sector and income of the affected population with strong linkages to rehabilitation and
development within the next 12 months. The
interventions will focus on Hyogo Framework
for Action and Sendai Framework for DRR
with the notion of BBB, and (ii) rehabilitation/
reconstruction of building infrastructure, irrigation, infrastructure, livestock restocking and repair/replacement of agriculture machinery and
equipment coupled with institutional strengthening and capacity building to sustain ably improve crop, small irrigation, fisheries and livestock within the next 36 months. Cash/voucher
transfer will be encouraged for inputs, including
fertilizer, at subsidized prices as per the policy of
the Government of Nepal in areas where markets have become functional. Rehabilitation/reconstruction works will be carried out through
cash-for-work; also to channel the money to the
89
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
local economy through self-targeting. Special
attention will have to be paid to the structural
stability of these structures to better withstand
earthquakes in the future.
Since agriculture in Nepal is highly risk-prone
due to changes in rainfall patterns, floods and
landslides, earthquakes and other natural and
man made disasters, and considering the imperative for DRR, the recovery strategy emphasizes
investment in technological backups and an agriculture information system to support production and marketing, and improving the resilience
of vulnerable farmers against most imminent future natural disasters. To that end, research on disaster risk and introduction of new and improved
varieties of crops and breeds of livestock and fish
will be pursued. Standard Operating Procedures
(SOP) for MoAD will be established to enable it
to be better prepared against similar disasters in
future, including an early warning system aimed
at assisting vulnerable farmers for managing risks
in agriculture production, and food and nutrition
security in the country.
Farmers Welfare Fund, under the ADS, will provide assistance to farmers under distress through
access to financial resources as a safety net to
overcome temporary losses of income in similar
future disasters. The recovery plan will contribute to the establishment and operationalization
of this new concept. The recovery strategy will
contribute to bringing the newly initiated crop
and livestock insurance plan into effect by working with the private sector. Similarly, the recovery plan will look at opportunities for strengthening the food reserve system to cope with
emergencies and to cover suffering vulnerable
farming households. Building capacities of extension and animal health workers and farmers
through training, Farmer Field Schools (FFS)
and technology transfer will be another important element the strategy will look into over the
reconstruction period.
The medium-term recovery interventions should
aim at strengthening value chains, ensuring the
integration of small-holders, mainstreaming crop
diversification, good agricultural practices (including FFS and Integrated Pest Management),
and climate change adaptation measures that con-
Dhading, Gorkha, Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Sindhupalchowk and Dolakha
45
90
tribute to DRR and management. In addition, it
will be essential to promote and strengthen local
cooperatives as they can play a key role in the development of the value chains as well as in water management. Restocking of livestock would
strictly target the most vulnerable households for
which livestock represents a significant and essential source of income, excluding those already
covered by an insurance scheme. Recovery and
reconstruction interventions will consider the
special case of gender differences in agriculture.
To respond to the increasing role of women in
farming, drudgery reduction, labour efficient and
cost effective technologies such as hand tractors,
zero tillers and serrated sickles will be introduced.
Similarly, to reduce vulnerability of women and
children at home, interventions will be made to
attract locally available youth labour force as well
as returnee migrant workers by providing them
job opportunities in the agriculture sector. The
strategy emphasizes government-led implementation with support of development partners in
close collaboration with local communities in a
participatory manner.
Assessment Methodology
Data was collected through a variety of methods
and cross-checked. In particular,
a)Available reports were reviewed, including
the draft reports circulated by the Food Security Cluster, namely, the Nepal Food Security
Monitoring System/World Food Programme
(NekSAP/WFP) household survey report for
11 districts and the rapid agricultural livelihoods assessment report prepared by FAO
for six most-affected districts.
b)Damages and losses assessment templates
were developed, sent to 24 earthquake-affected districts, and the data received from
the districts were compiled and analyzed.
c) Field visits were made to six most-affected
districts45 in order to meet the authorities and
affected population and assess the effects of
the earthquakes on agricultural livelihoods.
Meetings were held with District Disaster
Relief Committees (DDRC) and officials
from DADO and DLSO. Focus Group Discussions were carried out with some of the
affected farming communities.
d)Data provided by the districts were cross-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
checked with official data of the government.46 Cropped surfaces communicated by
the districts were compared against data of
the 2011 Agriculture Census carried out by
the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and
area and production of crops, livestock and
fisheries were obtained from the 2014 report
published by MoAD. Losses and damages
reported by the district level offices were triangulated with the baseline data.
e)Prevalent market unit price was considered
for estimating losses and damages. Recovery
cost was estimated as 30 percent of the total
losses, and about 30 percent were added to the
damages for estimating reconstruction needs.
Total value of damages to livestock was used
for estimating the needs for restocking.
f ) The team worked with cross-cutting sector
teams, in particular with the environment,
irrigation, community infrastructure and
gender teams.
46
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
g) A stakeholders’ consultation meeting was organized on 1 June in which the major findings and recovery strategy was presented.
Feedback/inputs received from the participants were taken into consideration while finalizing data and the sector report.
District agriculture and livestock offices did their
best to collect the data and send it to the PDNA
team. However, due to their limited capacity and
the short time frame, the data set received seemed
incomplete. Collection of data on damages and
losses in the districts is ongoing, and the situation is expected to become clearer in a few weeks’
time. A revision would therefore be necessary in
due course to get a better picture of damages and
losses, and recovery and reconstruction needs.
REFERENCES
MoAD (in press). Statistical information of Nepalese Agriculture. Government of Nepal, Ministry of Agricultural Development, Singhadurbar.
Data available from the Central Bureau of Statistics, 2014
91
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
92
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
7. Irrigation
Summary
The Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA)
in the irrigation sector covered 31 districts, including the 14 most-affected districts. In these
hilly and mountain districts, an estimated 1877
small- and medium-scale farmer-managed irrigation schemes irrigated about 121,900 hectares
of land before the earthquakes. The infrastructure and functionality of about 290 of these irrigation schemes was affected to various degrees
by the earthquakes. Damages to the sector, including irrigation infrastructure and district offices, are estimated at about NPR 382.8 million.
Losses in agriculture production due to nonavailability of irrigation water to 10,783 hectares
are reported in the chapter on agriculture. Direct
losses in irrigation fee collection are estimated at
NPR 0.4 million. Recovery and reconstruction
of office buildings and irrigation schemes, based
on the build back better (BBB) principle, is estimated at about NPR 467.2 million.
Pre-Disaster Context
and Baseline
The agriculture sector accounted for 34.1 percent
of GDP in 2013-2014 and 60 percent of the labour force is dependent on agriculture. A total of
2.5 million hectares of the country’s land is arable, of which 1.77 million hectares is irrigable
and 1.35 million hectares has access to irrigation
water. The irrigation systems are categorized according to their size, operation and management
responsibility. In the hills, schemes of less than
10 hectares are considered small, schemes between 10 and 500 hectares are considered medium, schemes between 500 and 1,000 hectares
are considered large, and schemes above 1,000
hectares are considered major.47 Micro-irrigation
systems using non-conventional technologies are
also constructed as independent systems or in
conjunction with small and medium irrigation
systems to increase water efficiency. Schemes are
also classified based on the entity in-charge of the
47
operation and maintenance into agency-managed
irrigation schemes (AMIS), farmer-managed irrigation schemes (FMIS) and jointly-managed irrigation schemes (JMIS).
The total area under AMIS surface irrigation was about 749,063 hectares, of which
large and major irrigation schemes accounted
for 325,919 hectares and medium irrigation
schemes 424,000 hectares. Large and major irrigation schemes are mainly located in the Tarai
plains where large areas of productive, irrigable
land are available. There were about 15,000
small and medium size FMIS covering 227,077
hectares. These are mainly located in the hills
and mountains. About 3,000 of them have received external support from the government
and development agencies in the past. The rest
were built by farmers and are made of flexible
structures and earthen canals with temporary
intake that require frequent repair. The ground
water schemes cover about 374,691 hectares of
irrigated land in the country and the rest of the
irrigated land is covered by other minor/micro
irrigation schemes.
Right-to-water-use for agricultural purposes is
mainly attached to land rights. This means those
who own land can enjoy water rights. From the
gender perspective, rights to water is discriminatory as in Nepal there is great disparity in land
distribution, with women owning only 19.17
percent of the land and housing. Further, there
is lack of recognition that women are water
stakeholders and actors too. There also exists an
undervaluation of the importance of women’s
skills, knowledge and labour contribution to
water management. Yet, women shoulder most
of the burden of farm work and make the largest
contribution to the agricultural economy.
The government through the Ministry of Irrigation (MoI) and the Department of Irrigation
In the Tarai area, classification of irrigation schemes by size uses different thresholds. Schemes < 200 hectares are considered small, schemes of 200 to 2,000 hectares are
considered medium, schemes of 2,000 to 5,000 hectares are large and schemes >5,000 hectares are major.
93
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
(DoI) develops and manages medium to major
irrigation systems in the country. The Ministry
of Federal Affairs and Local Development (MoFALD) through its Department of Local Infrastructure Development and Agriculture Roads
(DoLIDAR) supports farmers in construction
and rehabilitation of small irrigation systems.
The Ministry of Agriculture Development
(MoAD) through its Department of Agriculture
(DoA) also supports farmers in construction
and management of small to minor irrigation
systems in different districts.
The irrigation PDNA focuses on 31 earthquakeaffected districts totalling an estimated 121,900
hectares that were irrigated prior to the earthquakes. Irrigation in these hilly and mountain
districts is provided by small- and medium-scale
Table 7.1 Irrigation Systems in Earthquake-affected Districts
S.No.
Districts
1.
Bhaktapur
2.
Dhading
3.
4.
Total area under irrigation (ha)
46
3184
123
5523
Dolkha
44
3303
Gorkha
61
3055
5.
Kathmandu
47
2913
6.
Kavrepalanchowk
78
4346
7.
Lalitpur
46
3805
8.
Makawanpur
54
3813
9.
Nuwakot
69
5602
10.
Okhaldhunga
43
2449
11.
Ramechhap
63
3399
12.
Rasuwa
21
1163
13.
Sindhuli
47
4492
14.
Sindhupalchowk
97
5803
15.
Arghakhanchi
51
2143
16.
Baglung
54
1912
17.
Bhojpur
32
2646
18.
Chitwan
152
16499
19.
Dhankuta
60
3313
20.
Gulmi
53
2438
21.
Kaski
47
3329
22.
Khotang
39
3416
23.
Lamjung
95
4527
24.
Myagdi
44
1834
25.
Nawalparasi
65
8849
26.
Palpa
74
3163
27.
Parbat
62
3193
28.
Sankhuwasabha
45
2609
29.
Syangja
79
4492
30.
Solukhumbu
22
1491
31.
Tanahun
64
3205
1,877
121,909
Total
94
Total Number of small and medium
irrigation schemes
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
FMIS. Only irrigation schemes and buildings,
which are under the responsibility of DoI and
DoLIDAR are accounted for in this assessment.
Schemes and offices that are under DoA are accounted for in the agriculture chapter. Table 7.1
presents the estimated number of schemes and
number of hectares under irrigation in each of
the 31 districts.
Post-Disaster Context
Damages and Losses
The PDNA of the irrigation sector has considered the damages in irrigation infrastructure
and office buildings. Losses in this sector only
include reduced Irrigation Service Fee (ISF) collection from damaged irrigation schemes. Losses
in agriculture production due to non-availability of irrigation water are accounted for under
the agriculture sector.
Infrastructure Damages
The field visit revealed that physical damage
was caused both due to the ground shaking and
landslides. Typical damage includes: (i) small
and major cracks in RCC canals, and structures
falling due to the ground shaking, (ii) displacement of canals due to loss of gradient, (iii) RCC
canal section degraded or washed away due to
landslides and rock fall, and (iv) damaged retaining walls. In many instances, sections of
RCC canals have cracked due to faulty construction. Despite the major scale of the disaster, important structures of the irrigation systems such
as intake, super-passages and aqueducts have
generally resisted well and remain in operation.
Some structures with new spring water are very
vulnerable and may deteriorate later. Many
landslides have occurred. Even firm rocky areas
have started to show wedge failure or serious
cracks a couple of inches wide. Many landslideprone areas have been weakened by the earthquakes. It is expected that monsoon rains will
cause many of these weak areas to fail. These
hidden damages were accounted for by adding
30 percent to the immediate post-earthquake
visual damage estimates. Finally, many DoI and
DoLIDAR district offices were damaged. District offices in Dhading, Dolakha and Nuwakot
have to be rebuilt.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Losses in Production, Fiscal
Revenue and Services
Losses from damaged irrigation infrastructure
include (i) losses in agriculture production due
to reduced irrigated area, and (ii) reduction in
ISF collection. It is estimated that damaged irrigation schemes, on average, will remain completely or partially non-functional for a period
of one year. Some will be fixed earlier and others may be fixed after a maximum period of two
years. Losses in production and irrigation fees
will be for a period of one year. The fee is collected by the irrigation department as an annual
average at the rate of NPR 200/hectare. However, the average collection rate does not exceed
20 percent. This low collection rate was factored
in while calculating the losses in ISF collection.
Losses in production were calculated for 10,783
hectares, which includes 8295 hectares reported
without irrigation plus 30 percent for unreported damaged schemes. For most systems, a
year out of production corresponds to losses of
three crops, including one rice crop, one wheat
crop, and one maize crop. Production losses are
estimated at NPR 4,042 million and have been
accounted for in the agriculture chapter. Table
7.2 presents estimated damages and losses in 31
earthquake-affected districts.
Damaged office buildings will affect the ability
of DoI and DoLIDAR district staff to provide
the services that is required to support fast reconstruction and recovery. Fast reconstruction/
retrofitting of the offices will be critical, including possible provision of temporary offices.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
The general approach and strategy for recovery
and reconstruction is to restore the performance
of the irrigation sector as early as possible with
the objective of minimizing economic losses
in the agriculture sector. Given the limited international experience in designing and building earthquake-resilient small-scale irrigation
schemes and the absence of local experience and
capacity, it is not realistic to wait for new design/
retrofitting guidelines to be prepared before
starting to rebuild/repair the damaged schemes.
Developing new design guidelines or retrofitting
guidelines will require action research consisting
95
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 7.2 irrigation Systems in Earthquake-affected Districts with Damages and Losses
S.No.
Districts
Number of
affected
schemes
Total cost
of damage
on irrigation
scheme in NPR
million
Cost of damage to office
buildings in
NPR million
Total cost
of damages
(offices
+irrigation
schemes) in
NPR million
Total loss in
CA (ha)
Total loss in
ISF collection in NPR
million @ 20%
collection rate
1.
Bhaktapur
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
2.
Dhading
26
50.6
9.5
60.1
944
0.05
3.
Dolkha
38
9.2
15
24.2
874
0.05
4.
Gorkha
111
70.9
0.9
71.8
2,848
0.107
5.
Kathmandu
0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
6.
Kavrepalanchowk
8
17.8
1.5
19.2
202
0.01
7.
Lalitpur
1
0.5
0.0
0.5
25
0.001
8.
Makawanpur
19
25.8
3.3
29.2
497
0.03
9.
Nuwakot
13
41.6
0.9
42.5
870
0.05
10.
Okhaldhunga
14
12.8
1.5
14.3
271
0.01
11.
Ramechhap
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
12.
Rasuwa
5
16.2
10
26.2
196
0.01
13.
Sindhuli
1
1.0
2.4
3.4
45
0.002
14.
Sindhupalchowk
7
12.6
0.0
12.6
272
0.01
15.
Arghakhanchi
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
16.
Baglung
1
0.3
4.5
4.8
10
0.001
17.
Bhojpur
3
2.2
0.7
2.9
53
0.003
18.
Chitwan
0
0.0
9.2
9.2
0
0.0
19.
Dhankuta
12
11.9
2.0
14
267
0.02
20.
Gulmi
1
0.3
0.5
0.8
20
0.001
21.
Kaski
2
2.5
1.4
3.9
50
0.003
22.
Khotang
1
2.0
5.0
7.0
20
0.001
23.
Lamjung
6
6.4
6.0
12.4
445
0.02
24.
Myagdi
1
0.3
0.0
0.3
10
0.001
25.
Nawalparasi
0
0.0
1.0
1.0
0
0
26.
Palpa
0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0
0
27.
Parbat
5
4.6
0.0
4.6
135
0.007
28.
Sankhuwasabha
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0
29.
Syangja
7
8.0
0.0
8.0
126
0.007
30.
Solukhumbu
6
5.4
2.5
7.9
75
0.004
31.
Tanahun
2
1.1
0.0
1.0
40
0.002
290
304.0
78.8
382.8
8,295
0. 4
Total
96
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
retrofitting damaged ones is estimated at 20 percent of the estimated repair/reconstruction cost.
Table 7.3 provides a breakdown of reconstruction and recovery costs.
of pilot testing the feasibility of various options
in the Nepalese context. However, improvement
can be brought by enhancing the quality of construction. Substantial damage observed during
the field visits were a result of faulty construction, particularly the installation of rubber seals.
This can be improved by enhancing capacity of
DoI/DoLIDAR and Water Users’ Associations
(WUAs) in construction supervision. Cost for
piloting and preparing retrofitting/new design
guidelines as well as capacity building in construction supervision is estimated at 10 percent
of the cost to repair/rebuild the damaged irrigation schemes.
The strategy for reconstruction and recovery will
follow a three-stage approach, including:
(i)Short-term recovery activities (2015-2016):
It is believed that some level of functionality can be restored and maintained during
the monsoon in many irrigation schemes
through provision of emergency assistance
to WUAs. With DoI technical guidance
and provision of tools and materials, farmers will be able to clean obstructed canals,
repair small and medium cracks, consolidate
landslide prone areas or even install temporary pipes in most damaged areas. Material
may include PVC pipes, cement bags, high
grade plastic sheets, plastic piping, etc. This
would help save part of the monsoon paddy
crop. Precise inventory of the damage must
wait for after the monsoon as further damage is expected to occur during that season.
Such inventory should be completed in four
months. Preparation of detailed design and
costing should start immediately after and
be completed in five months. The cost of
undertaking the detailed damages inventory
and preparing detailed designs was estimated
at 1 percent of the cost of reconstruction.
(ii) Medium-term reconstruction activities (FY
2016-2018): Physical reconstruction should
not take more than one to 1.3 years as it is
As irrigation is an integral part of agriculture,
it is imperative that women become more involved in irrigation and related activities. The
post-disaster recovery frameworks should pursue interventions that engage more women. The
long-term reconstruction activities proposed
under irrigation should take into account women’s needs and priorities by involving them in
planning and designing of reconstruction activities. Further, consideration of women’s WUAs is
necessary. Their inputs will be useful and their
capacity will also need to be enhanced for management of irrigation schemes.
There is enough regional and national experience on retrofitting or constructing earthquakeresilient administrative buildings. Based on
available guidelines and bibliography, the cost
of building new earthquake-resilient offices and
Table 7.3 Estimated Recovery and Reconstruction Needs
Recovery and Reconstruction cost (NPR million NPR)
Items
FY 2015-16
Recovery : inventory and detail design
of irrigation schemes and building
38.2
Reconstruction/Repair irrigation
schemes
40.0
Reconstruction/Retrofit earthquake
resilient office buildings
Piloting/preparing irrigation scheme
new design/retrofitting guidelines
TOTAL
10
88.2
FY 2016-17
FY 2017-18
FY 2018-19
Total
38.2
132.0
132.0
304.0
47.3
47.3
94.6
10.0
189.3
179.3
10.4
30.4
10.4
467.2
97
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
planned to contract these directly to WUAs.
Reconstruction and retrofitting of office
buildings will take up to 2.5 years, including
six months for survey and detailed designs,
eight months for tendering and awarding
contracts, and 12 months for construction.
(iii) Long-term reconstruction activities (up to
FY 2018-2019): These will consist of identifying possible options for building/retrofitting more earthquake-resilient small- and
medium-scale irrigation schemes from the
international literature, particularly from
the Himalayan region of India as the geologic and economic setting might be similar. Experience of the International Water
Management Institute with post-earthquake
canal restoration in Pakistan may be a good
example to follow. The most promising options will then be tested through pilots in
earthquake-prone/affected hill districts.
Based on the results of the pilot irrigation
schemes, design guidelines will be updated
and retrofitting guidelines will be produced.
It is estimated that completion of these tasks
should take at least four years.
Implementation Arrangements
In view of the limited budget required for reconstruction and recovery, it is proposed to
absorb the cost of reconstruction through donor funded and government projects currently
under implementation, including (i) ADBfunded Community Managed Irrigated Agriculture Sector Project (CMIASP) and Water
Resource Project Preparation Facility (WRPPF),
(ii) World Bank-financed Irrigation and Water
Resource Management Project (IWRMP), or
(iii) government-financed Medium Irrigation
Project (MIP). If required, the geographical
scope of these projects may be extended to cover
all 31 districts.
During the monsoon season, stocks of materials
and tools will be purchased and dispatched to
districts, which need them to support WUA-led
emergency repairs. Irrigation and DoLIDAR district engineers will assess the needs and provide
technical support to the WUAs. The project management units (PMUs) of IWRMP and CMIASP
will procure materials and tools using shopping
procurement mode to ensure fast delivery.
98
PMUs of IWRMP, CMIASP and WRPPF may
recruit individual consultants to undertake necessary detailed damages inventory in all 31 districts and produce detailed designs of severely
damaged schemes and office buildings. Under
Nepal government procurement rules, works up
to NPR 6 million can be directly contracted to
WUAs. Most, if not all, repair/reconstruction
works are not expected to exceed this threshold. In most cases, WUAs will be contracted to
undertake repair/reconstruction with technical
support and guidance from DoI and DoLIDAR
engineers. In doing so, a substantial amount of
time and effort required for preparing tender
documents and procuring works through national competitive bidding (NCB) will be saved.
Quality control and overall supervision must be
ensured by experts employed under the donor
funded projects. Office building repair and reconstruction works will be procured through
NCB by CMIASP and IWRMP PMUs.
Similarly, PMU of WRPPF will recruit an individual consultant to (i) explore possible options for retrofitting and enhancing earthquake
resilience in DoI design guidelines, (ii) identify
and design pilots, and (iii) assess suitability and
update design guidelines. Most suitable options
will be pilot tested in FMIS to be constructed or
reconstructed under CMIASP, IWRMP or MIP.
Assessment Methodology
The irrigation sector assessment was conducted
following the terms of reference for PDNA in
May 2015 of the Nepal PDNA Secretariat, led
by the National Planning Commission, and the
guidelines for PDNA prepared jointly by the
European Commission, the United Nations Development Group and the World Bank in 2013.
The approach focused on (i) identifying the damages and losses of the 25 April 2015 earthquake
and subsequent aftershocks, and (ii) defining and
costing a recovery strategy, including the cost for
rehabilitation and reconstruction of irrigation infrastructure and office buildings while ensuring
resilient recovery based on the BBB principle.
The baseline information was collected from
secondary sources, including the Central Bureau of Statistics supported Census Survey
2011, past reports and records of DoI, DoA
and DoLIDAR, the report on the develop-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
ment of database in irrigation development in
Nepal prepared by DoI in 2007, and information from district profiles prepared by District
Development Committees (DDCs). Field level
post-disaster information was collected from the
Irrigation Development Division (IDD) Offices
of DoI and District Technical Offices (DTO) of
DOLIDAR. A standardized checklist was developed for this purpose. It included questions on
(i) the scale of damage in the irrigation systems
and buildings, (ii) command area losses due to
unavailability of irrigation water as a result of
the damage, and (iii) the level of functionality of
the scheme. Most post-disaster information was
collected on the phone from WUA members.
Based on these descriptions, IDD engineers prepared cost estimates using the district schedule
of rates. It is estimated that this count covers
about 70 percent of the irrigation schemes of
the affected districts. About 30 percent of the
irrigated area, including the entire irrigated area
of Ramechhap district, for which no data could
be obtained, is not accounted for. This gap was
taken into consideration when accounting for
damages and losses in command area and ISF.
In order to check the reliability of the information, field validation of a few irrigation systems
in the highly earthquake-affected districts was
carried out by ADB, JICA and the World Bank
along with the staff of IDD/DoI. The farmers
were consulted on the status of the system and
their cultivation plan for the next agriculture
season. A walkthrough of the system was conducted with detailed observation, measurement
of damages and photographic recording. The
operational status of the systems was recorded in
terms of being fully or partially operational, or
completely non-operational. Also, probable cost
of repair and rehabilitation in the post-monsoon
condition of the already vulnerable and fragile
hills was estimated. Based on such field observation and consultation with farmers, the cost
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
per hectare for immediate measures to make the
system operational, short-term repair, and medium- to long-term rehabilitation was estimated.
Results of the field verification surveys were
compared with IDD/DTO data. It was concluded that descriptions of damages were usually accurate but costs were over-estimated by an
average of 40 percent. IDD cost estimates were
reduced by 40 percent. However, these were also
increased twice by 30 percent to account for (i)
non-reported schemes, and (ii) hidden damages
that would lead to further damages during the
monsoon.
References:
1.Government of Nepal, Central Bureau of
Statistics. 2008. Kathmandu.
2.Department of Irrigation, 2014. Project
Completion Report: Community-Managed
Irrigated Agriculture Sector Project. Department of Irrigation, Government of Nepal,
Kathmandu.
3.Department of Irrigation, 2007. Development of Database for Irrigation Development in Nepal. Department of Irrigation,
Government of Nepal, Kathmandu.
4.Asian Development Bank, 2013. Project
Validation Report: Second Irrigation Sector
Project. Asian Development Bank, Manila,
The Philippines.
5. Ministry of Irrigation, 2013. Irrigation Policy 2013. Ministry of Irrigation, Government
of Nepal, Kathmandu.
6.European Commission, The World Bank,
The United Nations Development Group,
2013. Post Disaster Needs Assessment
Guidelines, 2013.
7. Reports from Irrigation and Water Resources
Management Project funded by the World
Bank; Irrigation Sector Project funded by
Asian Development Bank; Medium Irrigation
Project funded by government resources.
99
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
100
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
8. Commerce and Industry
Summary
The commerce and industry sectors play a key
role in the economy, contributing substantially
to employment and ensuring access to services
and goods. Numerically, the largest share of enterprises in these sectors are micro enterprises,
of which majority are informal and create a substantial number of jobs, while medium and large
scale enterprises provide access to formal sector
employment opportunities.
In the 14 affected districts, prior to the earthquake, there were:
• A total of 174,823 micro enterprises as assessed through the Household Survey, of
which 23,180 are classified under industry
and 151,643 under commerce;
• 57,308 cottage and small industries (32,949
in commerce and 24,359 in industry), out of
229,309 cottage and small industries registered with Department of Cottage and Small
Industries in the entire country;
• 3,919 medium and large industries, or 66
percent of the total of 5,973 medium and
large industries registered with Department
of Industry in Nepal;
• 2,495 FDI enterprises, or 78 percent of a
total of 3,200 FDI enterprises registered in
the entire country. 1,775 FDI enterprises, or
55.4 percent of the total, are established in
Kathmandu district alone;
• An additional 122,026 commerce firms registered with the Ministry of Commerce and
Supplies.
The commerce and industry sectors have been
affected by physical damage to premises, equip-
ment, raw materials and stocks of finished
goods; lack of labour; reduced demand; as well
as disruptions in trade flows due to damage to
trade related infrastructure.
Based on the outcomes of the PDNA, damages
resulting from the earthquakes amount to NPR
15,613 million in the 14 affected districts (and
NPR 17,408 million in the country overall),
while losses are estimated to amount to NPR
16,874 million (and NPR 18,815 million in the
country overall).
Beyond immediate effects in terms of damages
and losses, the earthquakes are likely to generate
overall negative impacts in the sectors in terms
of business survival and performance, with the
exception of the construction subsector, which
is likely to be strengthened. Among other impacts, the lower business performance in these
sectors is likely to translate into decreased government revenue as well as employment losses
and, as a result thereof, increased individual and
household poverty.
To mitigate these negative impacts and allow for the commerce and industry sectors to
recover and contribute to overall reconstruction efforts, a two-pronged recovery strategy is
proposed, comprising, (i) immediate assistance
for rubble removal and restoration of working
capital to affected enterprises, and (ii) assessing their need for and securing their access to
supplementary financial and non-financial services to ensure that the businesses – especially
those headed by women and youth – are built
back better in terms of management capacity,
Table 8.1: Earthquake Effects and Recovery and Reconstruction Needs for Commerce and Industry
Earthquake effects
Recovery and reconstruction needs
Damages
(NPR million)
Losses
(NPR million)
Recovery needs
(Npr million)
Reconstruction needs
(Npr million)
14 Districts
15,613
16,874
6,624
17,955
31 Districts*
17,408
18,815
7,386
20,019
*11.5% is used as a basis for extrapolation from 14 to 31 districts
101
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
sustainability and resilience. The estimated cost
of implementing the recovery component of the
strategy is NPR 6,624 million for 17 districts
and NPR 7,386 million for 31 districts, while
reconstruction needs amount to NPR 17,955
million for 17 districts and NPR 20,019 million
for 31 districts.
Pre-Disaster Context
and Baseline
Nepal is ranked as one of the least developed
countries in the world. Services make up over
half of GDP, with wholesale and retail trade contributing 14.95 percent to GDP in 2013-2014.
The contribution of industry to GDP is declining and stood at 14.4 percent in 2012-2013 as
compared to 17.5 percent in 2001-2002.
For the purposes of this assessment:
• Industry refers to manufacturing, construction, minerals and agro- and forest enterprises
• Commerce refers to services, businesses
and traders.
Prior to the earthquakes, the commerce and
industry sectors played a key role in providing
Box 8.1: Manufacturing: A Key Subsector in
Decline
Manufacturing establishments are the backbone of the Nepalese
industrial sector. They dominate in numbers and generate more
employment opportunities than other categories. The results of the
National Census of Manufacturing Establishments survey conducted in 2011-2012 by the Central Bureau of Statistics are summarised
in Table 8.2.
Table 8.2: Summary of Principal Indicators of Manufacturing Industries (all Nepal)
Principal indicators
Total number of establishments
2011-12
4076
Total number of persons engaged
204,360
Total number of employees
194,989
Average number of employee per establishment
48
Source: National Census of Manufacturing Industries 2011-12, Central Bureau of Statistics, June 2014.
Employment promotion is one of the key objectives of promoting industrial enterprises in Nepal.
However, as exhibited in the table, employment creation in manufacturing industries is not encouraging. This could be due to various reasons such as focus on capital intensive technologies or practices
of hiring employees on a temporary basis.
The contribution of the manufacturing industrial sector to GDP has diminished from 9.03
percent in FY 2000-2001 to 6.08 percent in 2013-2014.
102
employment opportunities. A large share of the
enterprises – especially micro and small-scale
enterprises including household-based enterprises – operating in these sectors are informal;
it is estimated that only one-fifth of all enterprises are formally registered. Location determines
the types of activity that enterprises are involved
in, with trade being dominant in urban areas
and manufacturing in rural areas. While sexdisaggregated data is scant, indications are that
women are most heavily represented among micro entrepreneurs (including as heads of households); their representation among managers
and workers in industry is significantly more
limited than men. In the industrial estates surveyed, women accounted, on average, between
10 to 15 percent of the workforce.
The pre-earthquake baseline data of the commerce and industry sectors is provided in Table
8.3 by size and type of enterprise. It should be
noted that both the baseline as well as the assessment of post-disaster effects could not fully
capture the situation of informal enterprises, on
which data is scant.
Micro enterprises in the commerce and industry sectors represent a significant share of
the Nepali economy. In terms of employment
creation, they employ, on average, four persons
per enterprise. In the 14 affected districts, the
number of micro enterprises surveyed through
Household Survey 2011 totals 174,823, of
which 23,180 are classified under industry (cottage industries) and 151,643 under commerce
(including business, service and other subsectors such as beauty parlours, computer cafes,
or photo studios). The PDNA housing sector
data (based on Ministry of Home Affairs data)
indicates that over 90 percent of the households
with micro enterprises may have been destroyed
in Sindhupalchok, Gorkha, Dolakha, Nuwakot
and Rasuwa.
Cottage and small industries play a pivotal role
in income generation and employment promotion in Nepal. Recognizing their contribution
to job creation, the government has established
cottage and small industry development offices
in each district. Based on information provided
by Department of Cottage and Small Industries,
229,309 cottage and small industries are registered in different districts as of FY 2013-2014.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Of these, 57,308 small and cottage industries
(32,949 in commerce and 24,359 in industry)
are registered in districts classified as highly affected, which is almost 25 percent of the total
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
registered enterprises in 75 districts. The types
of businesses registered in the commerce and
industry sectors in the 14 affected districts are
given in Table 8.4.
Table 8.3: Pre-Earthquake Commerce and Industry Data by Size and Type of Enterprise
Industry
District
Commerce
Cottage industry
Business
Service
Other
Total commerce
Bhaktapur
3066
6735
5089
1495
13319
Dhading
2189
4543
4282
439
9264
Dolakha
717
2327
3616
114
6057
Gorkha
464
3055
4236
221
7512
Kathmandu
4062
30428
15230
3684
49342
Kavrepalanchowk
1922
5875
5642
534
12051
Lalitpur
3569
8199
5498
1064
14761
Makawanpur
1332
5485
4213
349
10047
Nuwakot
969
2576
3238
594
6408
Okhaldhunga
858
1217
2206
77
3500
Ramechhap
950
1908
2580
184
4672
Rasuwa
405
535
400
87
1022
Sindhuli
453
1840
2783
237
4860
Sindhupalchowk
Total
2224
4097
4421
310
8828
23180
78820
63434
9389
151643
*Other includes trades such as beauty parlours, rural grocery stores, photo studios and cyber cafes, among others
Source: Household Survey 2011, CBS
Table 8.4: Types of Businesses Registered in the Commerce and Industry Sector in 14 Affected Districts
Districts
Manufacturing
Construction
Agri & Forest
Mineral
Service
Only Industry
Commerce
Total
1615
78
208
0
1208
1901
1208
3109
Dhading
316
163
353
7
1463
839
1463
2302
Dolakha
169
25
196
3
648
393
648
1041
Gorkha
210
22
137
7
751
376
751
1127
9634
86
523
0
17405
10243
17405
27648
633
0
741
0
1643
1374
1643
3017
Lalitpur
5106
43
292
0
4374
5441
4374
9815
Makawanpur
1080
0
283
0
2028
1363
2028
3391
460
2
430
7
776
899
776
1675
59
0
64
0
346
123
346
469
Bhaktapur
Kathmandu
Kavre
Nuwakot
Okhaldhunga
Ramechhap
187
1
167
9
508
364
508
872
Rasuwa
63
15
116
1
213
195
213
408
Sindhuli
170
2
127
4
599
303
599
902
157
154
202
32
987
545
987
1532
19859
591
3839
70
32949
24359
32949
57308
Sindhupalchowk
Total
Source: Department of Cottage and Small Industries, 2014
103
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
In terms of numbers, medium and large industries are fewer as compared to cottage and small
industries. However, these industries generate
more employment in the formal sector. The
Department of Industry, which administers
medium and large industries, has registered
5973 (4836 excluding tourism) industries up
to May 2015, with commerce enterprises (as
represented by services) accounting for 1,640 enterprises. It is estimated that 496,730 (448,707
excluding tourism) employment opportunities
are created from these industries, with commerce
(as represented by services) accounting for
102,775 employment opportunities.
Out of 5,973 total industries registered in Nepal, 3,919 (66 percent) are registered in the 14
affected districts. Over 90 percent of the medium to large industries are registered in Kathmandu, Bhaktapur, Lalitpur and Makawanpur.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) enterprises can
be found in both industry and commerce across
all size groups (small, medium and large) with the
exception of micro enterprises. In all, 3,200 FDI
enterprises are registered with the Department of
Industry as of April 2015, generating 202,670
jobs, of which 2,495 FDI enterprises (or 78 percent of the total) are established in the 14 quakeaffected districts. Of these, 1,775 industries are
registered in Kathmandu district alone.
In addition to the commerce sector establishments registered with the Department of Industries, there are a further 122,026 commerce
enterprises registered with the Ministry of Commerce and Supplies in the 14 quake-affected
districts, representing an investment of NPR
56,096 million.
Post-Disaster Context
In the affected districts, the earthquakes disrupted the functioning of enterprises in a variety of
ways, including:
• Damage to premises, equipment and
stocks of raw materials and finished goods:
In a large number of household-based micro
enterprises, premises have suffered significant damage or have collapsed completely.
In the case of medium and large industries,
damage to property is less extensive, but in
many cases even where buildings are intact,
cracks following the quakes and aftershocks
mean that parts or all of the building must be
reconstructed. Damage to property is a cause
of disruptions to or stoppage of production.
In addition to damage to premises, damage
to stocks of raw materials or finished goods
has caused further disruption in production
and sales losses.
• Lack of labour: Enterprises are generally
facing a lack of labour due to the earthquakes. A large number of migrant workers
from India returned home after the quake
and, within Nepal, the same phenomenon
occurred: workers from other districts left
the quake-affected districts in fear, while a
reverse trend of workers leaving their workplaces in non-affected areas to help their
families in quake-affected areas is also taking
place. In addition to this phenomenon of
temporary out-migration, workers who are
originally from the quake-affected districts
and continue to reside in the district have
not returned to their workplaces due to fear
of working in buildings which they consider
unsafe. This has led to further decrease in
production capacity. For instance, the Garment Association of Nepal estimates that
Table 8.5: Medium to Large Industries in Nepal
Category
No. of industry
Agro and forestry
Construction
Energy-based
Manufacturing
Fixed capital (NPR
million)
Working capital (NPR
million)
No. of employees
354
16,259
13703.39
2,673
32,115
46
42,332
41476.76
855
3,062
252
553,073
538336.46
14,737
25,439
2,483
213,225
157753.79
55,942
278,917
Mineral
61
4,367
3846.99
522
6,399
Services
1,640
111,014
75869.31
35,190
102,775
Tourism
1,137
70,447
62481.36
7,958
48,023
TOTAL
5,973
1,010,717
893468.06
117,877
496,730
Source: Ministry of Industry, June 2015
104
Total capital (NPR
million)
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 8.6: District-wise Medium to Large Industries in Nepal
District
No. of industry
Total capital
(NPR million)
Fixed capital
( NPR million)
Working capital
(NPR million)
144
9,036.89
7,519.46
1,517.42
Bhaktapur
No. of employees
14,168
Dhading
42
17,915.24
16,854.70
1,060.54
2,992
Dolakha
28
83,751.80
83,238.14
513.66
5,931
Gorkha
22
3,857.05
3,744.09
112.96
1,563
2,734
158,901.09
122,595.71
36,350.08
210,554
Kavre
Kathmandu
129
6,672.58
5,314.71
1,357.86
10,890
Lalitpur
625
31,393.96
21,503.66
9,998.30
37,167
Makawanpur
92
17,119.41
13,969.34
3,150.08
8,892
Nuwakot
34
11,225.20
10,871.07
355.13
1,648
1
1,214.00
1,200.00
14
50
Ramechhap
Okhaldhunga
10
21,002.92
20,156.74
846.19
683
Rasuwa
17
39,709.81
37,289.39
2,420.43
2,258
Sindhuli
2
203.84
194.85
8.99
195
39
48,462.45
47,148.43
1,314.03
3,354
3,919
450,466
391,600
59,020
300,345
Sindhupalchowk
TOTAL
Source: Ministry of Industry, 2014
Table 8.7: Firms Registered with the Ministry of Commerce and Supplies (2013-2014)
District
Registered commercial firms
Investment ( NPR million)
Gorkha
1266
365.73
Dhading
2450
380
Nuwakot
2011
355.50
Rasuwa
298
118.20
102142
51,000
Makawanpur
5063
1,500
Dolakha
1788
1,470
Kavre
3026
Sindhupalchowk
1841
262.32
Sindhuli
235
173.10
Ramechhap
843
261.50
Kathmandu, Lalitpur, Bhaktapur
Okhaldhunga
Total
1063
210
122026
56,096.35
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Supplies, 2014
90 percent of workers have not returned to
work after the earthquakes.48 The lack of
demand for labour translates into increase in
workers’ rates. In the construction sector, for
example, the daily rate of workers has gone
up by 100 percent, from NPR 500 before the
quake to NPR 1000.49
• Reduced demand: Demand in general has
fallen for a number of reasons, including
lower domestic consumption as a result of
lower purchasing power of consumers (due
to property damage and other losses), a phenomenon of guilt leading to reduced desire
to purchase non-essential goods and services,
It should be noted, however, that there is also an inverse trend occurring at the same time, albeit on a more restricted scale: in some cases where production has been interrupted because of infrastructure damage or reduced demand, workers who would be willing to work have in been either given leave (with 50-100% of pay, in the case of
hired staff), or asked not to come to work (in the case of day labourers). See: The Himalayan, ‘Labour shortage hits businesses’, 5 June 2015.
49
The Himalayan, ‘Labour shortage hits businesses’, 5 June 2015
48
105
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
and a drastic reduction in tourist arrivals
(affecting enterprises beyond the tourism
sector). It should be noted, however, that it
is expected that demand for certain products,
such as those related to construction, will
increase due to the earthquakes.
• Damage to trade-related infrastructure:
Roads, bridges and customs points have
been severely affected, with significant
implications for trade in both merchandise
and services.
As a result of the damages and losses suffered,
it is estimated (based on assessments by private
sector stakeholders) that all enterprises in the industry and commerce sectors in all districts will,
on average, lose 100 percent of their normal rev-
enue for two months, 75 percent for the third
month, 50 percent for the fourth month and 25
percent for the fifth month, with revenue being restored to normal levels after six months, if
support is provided.
While financial losses are larger for larger
industries, the almost complete destruction of
the premises of smaller businesses (especially
household-based micro enterprises) combined
with their lower capacity to deal with such
shocks (lower reserve capital availability,
lack of insurance, etc.) means that medium,
small and micro enterprises (MSMEs) are
disproportionately affected and require special
attention in recovery efforts.
Box 8.2: Effects in Makawanpur, Chitwan and Dhading districts*
In Makawanpur District:
•Enterprises and industries were generally
closed for 20 days after the quakes. Some
small enterprises have started producing their
goods in tents.
• In the industrial estate of Makawanpur, a company involved in manhole cover production,
for instance, was closed for two weeks and is
currently operating at 30 percent capacity. A
tent has been set up, as the main production
building is cracked and needs to be demolished and reconstructed.
In Chitwan District:
•Tourist arrivals have dropped to less than 50
per day as compared to 1,000-1,500 per day
before the earthquakes. While there are no
damages in tourist related businesses, this
reduced demand has a large negative impact
nevertheless, affecting some 150 hotels, 50
restaurants and 3,500 workers (many of whom
are receiving 50 percent of their salaries and
are on leave).
•Poultry firms did not experience physical
damage but losses due to low demand and
decreased prices of chicks, eggs and meat
(e.g., price of eggs have fallen by NPR 4).
106
• In brick industries, there is physical damage
to chimneys and raw materials. More than
10,000 workers in the district were working
on daily wage basis; now production has
been reduced by 50 percent and a large
number of workers have returned home.
In Dhading District:
•The district is heavily affected and in particular many micro and small enterprises have
suffered significant damage and losses.
•As an example, a furniture maker interviewed had lost glass worth NPR 400,000 and
formica worth NPR 200,000. The 20 workers
employed by the business left and have not
returned to work since the quake.
•Public and private business support organizations and agencies such as the District
Cottage and Small Industries Office have
also been damaged and are operating out of
tents, with limited capacity to serve enterprises in the district.
*The above highlights of findings are based on statements by key informants garnered during the field visits. As such, they cannot be considered to be accurate
or comprehensive reflections of the effects and trends
in the earthquake-affected districts; they are meant to
serve as example testimonies only.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
It should be noted that while the damages and
losses are most significant in the affected districts, and while non-affected districts do not
face the challenge of physical damages, limitations in the availability of labour and reduced
demand has negative effects even in the nonearthquake affected districts.
Damages and Losses
Based on the PDNA carried out, the damages
for the commerce and industry sectors in 14 affected districts amounts to NPR 15,611 million
(US$156.11 million), while losses amount to
NPR 16,873 million (Table 8.8).
Extrapolating with a multiplier of 11.5 percent,
the total damages for both sectors combined for
the country overall amounts to NPR 17,408 million, while losses amount to NPR 18,815 million.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Valley and affected districts has led to a slowdown in production as well as shortage of labour
in the Tarai. Unless recovery activities in Kathmandu Valley and major district towns are undertaken quickly, overall industrial demand will
continue to be subdued till the medium term.
While the disaster has created a short-term lack
of labour (resulting in high demand for labour)
and will boost the construction sector, leading to
new employment opportunities, the net impact
on overall employment in the medium and long
term is likely to be negative due to the challenges
that enterprises face. Small-scale enterprises and
those run by women and youth who have more
limited assets and lower disaster resilience will
be more severely affected. The possible employment losses, in turn, could translate into reduction in individual and household income levels
and increase in poverty and vulnerability levels.
Disaster Effects and Impacts
While an accurate estimate of impacts is difficult
to obtain given limitations in the baseline and
post-earthquake data that could be obtained and
in the absence of a detailed survey, impacts that
have a relatively high likelihood of occurring are
outlined, calling for a recovery strategy that mitigates negative impacts and supports recovery of
the sectors.
The negative impact that the disaster will have
on the survival and performance of enterprises
in the commerce and industry sectors is also
likely to lead to a reduction in government
revenue due to a shrinkage in corporate tax
contributions. This, in turn, will negatively
affect the government’s capacity to provide
much-needed social services.
It is expected that the damages and losses experienced by enterprises in the commerce and
industry sectors will lead to a number of changes
within the sectors themselves, including:
• The possible collapse of some of the most
hard-hit micro enterprises;
• Reduced levels of business activity, performance and profit in a number of subsectors,
including agribusiness, and commerce and
trade. Given the strong backward and forward linkages in agro-processing, the impact
on the supply of intermediate as well as final
goods and opportunities for small and medium industries will be negative;
• The strengthening of a limited number of
subsectors linked to reconstruction, such as
construction materials.
In terms of access to goods, the earthquake and
its negative impact on enterprises will most
likely also lead to a reduction in supplies, thus
increase in imports as well as increased prices for
consumers. Depending on the extent to which
imports exceed exports, balance of payments
challenges could also emerge.
As most goods are produced (and consumed) in
the Tarai and Kathmandu Valley, the reduced
demand for goods and services in Kathmandu
A short- and medium-term liquidity crunch
is likely to occur in the financial sector, as requests for loans from affected enterprises will
increase. Investment overall is likely to decrease,
and the stock exchange may be negatively
affected as a result.
To mitigate the risks in terms of these impacts,
it is critical that needs-based support is channeled to the commerce and industry sectors and
enterprises within them, in both the immediate
future as well as in the medium and long term.
107
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 8.8: Estimated Damages and Losses to Commerce and Industry
Damages (million NPR)
Losses (million NPR)
Total effects (million NPR)
Industries
7,527
9,754
19,271
Commerce
8,084
7,119
16,953
15,611
16,873
32,484
Total
INDUSTRY
Cottage/Small
Medium & Large
District wise consolidated
Loss
Bhaktapur
144,525,000
Dhading
211,428,000
Dolakha
82,400,000
Gorkha
46,371,000
43,306,250
113,704,489
791,166
3,300,000
17,191,146
163,375,489
61,288,562
Kathmandu
93,420,000
1,080,168,750
2,323,566,083
72,484,770
1,292,632,000
2,262,461,354
3,709,618,083
3,415,114,874
201,110,000
460,416,667
224,161,983
1,346,057
63,912,250
479,276,042
489,184,233
941,038,766
82,080,000
506,160,000
234,195,521
10,130,542
156,831,500
1,260,065,833
473,107,021
1,776,356,376
Kavrepalanchowk
Lalitpur
Makawanpur
Damage
Loss
Damage
Loss
Damage
Loss
308,437,500
41,694,387
16,772,062
71,160,500
425,950,000
257,379,887
751,159,562
209,750,000
301,203,527
2,575,563
70,191,500
285,989,583
582,823,027
498,315,147
72,100,000
84,417,237
456,430
4,285,000
34,416,667
171,102,237
106,973,097
56,647,000
89,946,250
14,784,137
5,642,626
285,267,000
1,309,356,354
356,698,137
1,404,945,230
111,400,000
90,512,500
336,327,015
750,112
6,638,250
27,489,583
454,365,265
118,752,196
Okhaldhunga
39,440,000
80,112,500
31,903,333
2,328,188
-
-
71,343,333
82,440,688
Ramechhap
99,372,000
88,725,000
127,453,583
460,473
432,500
186,502,604
227,258,083
275,688,077
Rasuwa
44,640,000
37,781,250
50,467,733
450,372
30,790,000
89,645,833
125,897,733
127,877,456
Nuwakot
Sindhuli
Sindhupalchowk
Total Nepalese
Rupees
COMMERCE
30,576,000
50,700,000
45,175,991
722,963
192,500
880,208
75,944,491
52,303,172
230,130,000
127,850,213
130,854,813
1,015,746
8,727,500
13,843,750
369,712,313
142,709,709
1,473,539,000 3,245,966,880
Micro
4,059,909,833 115,927,073
Cottage/Small
Damage
Loss
Bhaktapur
414,450,960
Dhading
590,602,320
Dolakha
Gorkha
1,994,360,500 6,393,068,958
Medium & Large
7,527,809,333 9,754,962,911
District wise consolidated
Damage
Loss
Damage
Loss
Damage
Loss
321,636,000
8,743,360
2,122,571
6,700,947
36,128,050
429,895,267
359,886,621
266,325,000
173,327,933
899,697
3,520,902
29,576,042
767,451,155
296,800,738
459,690,000
146,265,000
45,932,934
149,703
70,950
218,750
505,693,884
146,633,453
495,993,960
168,441,000
74,945,516
319,w117
351,087
3,385,417
571,290,563
172,145,534
Kathmandu
748,730,400
2,098,714,000
1,302,913,742
24,637,266
122,619,222
1,920,690,042
2,174,263,364
4,044,041,307
Kavrepalanchowk
832,311,480
277,160,000
88,459,558
321,846
3,352,635
14,887,500
924,123,673
292,369,346
Lalitpur
224,070,000
439,652,500
62,128,438
1,625,778
42,800,670
476,770,592
328,999,108
918,048,870
Makawanpur
282,148,680
271,519,000
7,259,204
1,677,948
1,559,316
18,102,050
290,967,200
291,298,998
Nuwakot
486,354,000
143,695,500
95,803,973
129,648
633,600
2,620,583
582,791,573
146,445,731
Okhaldhunga
106,260,000
78,487,500
29,615,692
1,310,269
-
-
135,875,692
79,797,769
Ramechhap
322,642,320
104,754,000
58,699,510
128,319
-
-
381,341,830
104,882,319
RASUWA
74,448,000
22,912,500
18,191,785
98,863
-
-
92,639,785
23,011,363
Sindhuli
180,748,260
108,985,500
29,471,929
283,540
-
-
210,220,189
109,269,040
Sindhupalchowk
603,028,800
121,824,169
78,203,362
365,738
8,019,000
12,500,000
689,251,162
134,689,907
5,821,479,180 4,570,371,669
2,073,696,935
34,070,305
Total Nepalese
Rupees
108
Micro
Damage
189,628,329 2,514,879,025
8,084,804,444 7,119,320,999
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 8.9: Disaster Effects and Impacts
Short term
(FY 2015-16)
Medium term
(FY 2016-17
and 2017-18)
Long
term (FY 201819 and2019-20)
X
X
X
Sector restructuring with a collapse of a share of micro enterprises and emergence of new ones in growing subsectors (e.g., construction)
Growth of investment in infrastructure and reconstruction, leading to increased
demand for construction materials and increased demand for labour in these
sectors
X
X
Negative impact on agribusiness due to reduced agricultural production
X
X
Short- to medium-term shrinkage of commerce and trade in the severelyaffected districts
X
X
Employment opportunity losses, corresponding household income reduction
and increase in household poverty levels
X
X
X
Increased vulnerability of already vulnerable groups (women, youth, minorities)
X
X
X
Decrease in government revenue from tax-contributing enterprises in commerce and industry sectors
X
X
Reduction in supplies
X
X
Price rise for consumers
X
X
Increased imports
X
X
Balance of payments challenges
X
Liquidity crunch in banks due to requests for loans from enterprises
X
X
Decrease in overall investment
X
X
X
Negative impact on stock exchange
X
X
X
Recovery Needs and Strategy
Policy Measures
Part of the response to the impacts of the earthquakes and needs of the enterprises that comprise the commerce and industry sectors relates
to national policy level issues.
During the PDNA consultation process, stakeholders from the commerce, industry and supplies sectors recommended the following policy
measures, some of which could be integrated into
the sector strategy following discussion and validation by the government and other stakeholders:
• Increased government budget to the sectors
for recovery and revival in order to cover direct losses and to channel additional practical
assistance to MSMEs, in particular for those
in high-priority sectors, such as construction,
and for target groups with specific needs,
such as returning migrant workers, youth
and women.
• Development of an overall industrial vision addressing import-substitution and
export growth.
• Downward adjustment of interest rates to
avoid depression and of cash reserve ratio
rates to ensure sufficient liquidity.
• Temporary relaxation of rules regarding provisioning by the central bank to allow for rescheduling of loans.
• Reductions in corporate tax and VAT.
• Subsidies and reduction in customs duties on
materials that are key for reconstruction.
• Implementation of the National Employment Policy to address the lack of availability of skilled labour and weak links between
the supply and demand of labour; possible
temporary measures (e.g., wage subsidies)
for securing labour; and enactment of the
revised draft Labour Act for securing harmonious and enabling industrial relations and
to stimulate the attraction of workers to the
domestic industrial sector.
109
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
• Infrastructure-related measures (e.g., road
construction for linkages to neighbouring
countries) and trade financing mechanisms
to boost trade.
Practical Assistance to
Affected MSMEs
Larger industries will most likely be able to cope
with the effects of the disaster if helped by the
policy measures outlined above, in particular loan
rescheduling provisions and subsidies for imports
to replace damaged equipment and raw materials.
In addition to the policy level measures outlined
above, MSMEs – more affected by the earthquakes and with a lower capacity to respond as
compared to larger establishments –will require
targeted practical assistance, both in the immediate and longer term, to enable them to cope
with losses and rebound; contribute to overall
recovery and reconstruction efforts; and improve
their performance and long-term resilience.
MSMEs are facing a range of challenges following the earthquakes, including:
• Damage to premises, stock and equipment,
resulting in interruptions to or reduction in
production;
• A short-term lack of labour due to worker
absenteeism due to fear after the quakes, given the property damage, and long-term limitations on the availability of skilled workers;
• Reduced demand due to lower domestic
spending and reduction in flow of tourists,
resulting in reduced sales and income.
These challenges are compounded by pre-existing limitations such as the quality of human
capital, both in terms of managers and workers.
The practical assistance component of the proposed strategy comprises (i) immediate support
for demolition/rubble removal and restoration
of working capital to the affected MSMEs, and
(ii) the provision of additional needs-based support for accessing finance and markets, upgrading the technical and business management
skills of entrepreneurs and their employees, and
other measures as required.
While the nature and extent of damages and
losses can be roughly estimated for the sector
110
overall as well as for specific geographical areas
and sub-groups of enterprises within it, there
is need for more detailed information on the
structure of specific subsectors and value chains,
business development service markets, and the
supply and demand of labour.
The proposed strategy is thus be based on preliminary analyses of these factors, which in turn
will inform intervention design.
The strategy is built on the following pillars:
• Immediate support for responding to challenges arising from the earthquake for earthquake-affected MSMEs, including demolition and rubble removal from premises and
restoration of working capital;.
•Identification of additional needs (e.g.,
through area-based district level MSME
studies, subsector or value chain analyses)
for building back better enterprises in terms
of sustainability and resilience, management
capacity, working conditions, practices and
productivity, and contributions to green and
socially inclusive growth.
• Capacity building of service providers, such
as microfinance organizations or business development service providers, to provide the
required services.
• Additional service delivery by service providers to earthquake-affected MSMEs in areas
such as skills upgrading (e.g., technical or
managerial training, including in-business
continuity management), market access
(e.g., business linkages services), and financial services (e.g., micro insurance).
While districts themselves should identify their
own priorities, it is recommended that they select a limited number of subsectors (building
construction, for instance) or value chains to
work with, based on potential impact, and focus
on these. The potential of MSMEs in building
construction has been harnessed in other contexts, such as in Haiti where MSMEs were supported to play a key role in post-disaster reconstruction efforts while providing much needed
employment opportunties.
Special attention should be given to women,
youth and returning migrant workers in the
MSME sector both for the assessment of needs
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Figure 8.1: Immediate Support for Demolition/rubble Removal and Restoration of Working Capital
Immedidate
needs identification
(damages registration)
Setting up loan, grant, or
in-kind restoration mechanism
Channeling restoration
support to MSMEs
Additional support for building back better enterprises:
Supplementary needs
identification
Meso-Level
Interventions
Micro-Level
Interventions
• District level MSME situational analyses
• Intervention area and subsector selection
• Subsector analysis
• BDS market assessment
Support to local organizations in:
• Financial services provision
• Business development
services
Additional support to MSMEs in:
•Access to finance (including
micro insurance)
• Market access
• Management skills (including
business continuity management)
•Technical skills
Table 8.10: Summary of Recovery and Reconstruction Needs
Recovery needs (NPR million)
Reconstruction needs (NPR million)
14 Districts
6,624
17,955
31 Districts*
7,386
20,019
*11.5% is used as a basis for extrapolation from 14 to 31 districts
and channeling financial and technical assistance. For the latter, it is proposed that at
least 65 percent of the proposed budget in the
strategy be allocated to activities targeting these
groups.
Recovery and Reconstruction
Initiatives and Costs
Overall, recovery needs of 31 districts for commerce and industry are estimated to amount to
NPR 7,386 million, while the same estimate for
reconstruction needs is NPR 20,019 million.
The individual recovery and reconstruction activities proposed in the strategy, their costs, and
proposed implementation timing are detailed
for the 14 districts in Tables 8.11 and 8.12 for
the commerce and industry sectors separately.
Implementation Arrangements
It is proposed that recovery and reconstruction
be implemented through the following strategy:
• The Ministry of Commerce and Supplies and
Ministry of Industry will be responsible for
overall coordination and monitoring.
• At district level, Business Recovery Centres
(BRC) composed of public and private stakeholders will be set up. The BRCs will identify
district-level needs and priorities; channel direct recovery assistance to earthquake-affected MSMEs through a loan, grant, or in-kind
restoration mechanism; coordinate capacity
building of local business development service providers; and connect MSMEs to service providers.
• Local business service providers (organizations such as district chambers of commerce,
financial institutions, NGOs, or others) will
be capacitated to provide additional services
to earthquake-affected MSMEs based on
their needs in areas such as access to finance,
market access, or technical or managerial
skills development.
111
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 8.11: Recovery and Reconstruction Activities, Costs and Proposed Implementation in Industry
Financial Year (NPR million)
Total
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2,035
1,124
112
49
33
3,353
202
50
-
-
-
252
1,764
950
-
-
-
2,714
Additional services needs assessment (value
chain analysis)
2
6
1
-
-
9
Capacity building for providers of non-financial and financial services
11
20
13
-
-
45
Delivery of additional non-financial and financial services to final beneficiaries
48
96
96
47.945
32.335
320
Establishment of institutional mechanisms for
channeling support
8
2
1
1.115
1.115
13
Reconstruction
2,403
1,601
-
-
-
4,004
Reconstruction of premises and replacement
of assets
2,403
1,601
-
-
-
4,004
Total
4,438
2,725
112
49
33
7,357
Recovery Needs
Demolition and rubble removal costs
Working capital
Table 8.12: Recovery and Reconstruction Activities, Costs and Proposed Implementation in Commerce
Financial Year (NPR million)
Recovery Needs
Demolition and rubble removal costs
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
1,938
1,326
446
196
130
4,036
216
55
-
-
-
271
1,445
778
-
-
-
2,223
Additional services needs assessment (value
chain analysis)
8
20
3
-
-
31
Capacity building for providers of non-financial and financial services
43
79
52
-
-
175
193
386
386
193
128
1,286
32
8
4
3
2
50
Working capital
Delivery of additional non-financial and
financial services to final beneficiaries
Establishment of institutional mechanisms for
channeling support
Reconstruction
9,609
6,406
-
-
-
16,015
Reconstruction of premises and replacement
of assets
9,609
6,406
-
-
-
16,015
11,547
7,731
446
196
130
20,051
Total
112
Total
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Figure 8.2: Recovery Assistance (Working Capital Restoration)
Ministry of Industry
and
Supplies Ministry of Commerce
The practical assistance component of the
strategy will target the 14 affected districts as
a priority, but may gradually be expanded to
cover all districts.
Assessment Methodology
The methodology used for assessing the
impact of the earthquakes on the commerce
and industry sectors and developing
recommendations included:
• The establishment of a baseline based on
documentation and secondary data obtained
from the Ministry of Industry (MoI), Ministry of Commerce and Supplies (MoCS)
and private sector stakeholders (Chamber of
Nepalese Industries, Federation of Nepalese
Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Federation of Nepal Cottage and Small Industries, local chambers of commerce and industry, and local officials).
• The calculation of post-earthquake damages
and losses data based on the baselines provided from different sources, including MoI,
MoCS, various departments, Central Bureau
of Statistics, National Planning Commis-
District Level
BRC (x 14)
Business Service
Providers
MSMEs
sion, and others.
• A survey of four industrial estates located
at Balaju, Patan, Bhaktapur and Hetauda
was carried out to assess damage to structures and plants.
• Field visits to selected districts to validate
quantitative data provided by sector stakeholders and to gather additional qualitative
data. Field visits were conducted in Makawanpur, Chitwan and Dhading districts and
consisted of interactions with district level
chambers of commerce and industry, District Cottage and Small Industries Office,
Industrial Area Development Management
Office, District Administration Office, producers’ associations and other stakeholders.
• Stakeholder meetings in Kathmandu with
the relevant ministries and departments and
industry associations (Chamber of Nepalese
Industries, Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Federation
of Nepal Cottage and Small Industries,) to
obtain qualitative overall assessments of
damages
and
losses
and
their
recommendations for recovery.
113
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
114
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
9.Tourism
Summary
The tourism sector has sustained significant
physical damages in the affected districts but
more importantly is expected to suffer major
economic losses over the next two to three years
as a result of the earthquakes. It is important to
note that the overall impact of the earthquakes
on the tourism sector goes beyond the 14 affected districts and well-known tourism destinations like Chitwan and Pokhara in terms of
sharp fall in tourists. The negative repercussions
of the disaster are likely to result in a reduced
number of tourist arrivals over the next couple
of years and reduction in tourist spend per day
from $43 to $35 as per industry sources, which
will significantly affect tourism revenue. Other
nations which have experienced a similar disaster, have generally taken several years to recover
fully with regard to tourist arrivals.
It is estimated that the overall impact on the Nepali tourism industry will be a reduction in tourists’ arrival annually of about 40 percent, on average, over the next 12 months, and a 20 percent
reduction in the following 12 to 24 months.
Despite the overall estimated damages and losses,
the tourism sector remains resilient and optimistic in turning around in the medium to long
term. With concerted efforts from all relevant
stakeholders and support from the government,
the sector is poised to build back better (BBB).
However, these efforts need to target the global
tourism market and convince (potential) visitors
to come to Nepal, as well as provide assistance
to affected rural and urban tourism entrepreneurs. The recovery strategy should be carried
out in a phased manner with actionable items as
suggested in this chapter.
Pre-Disaster Context and Baseline
Impact of Tourism on Gross
Domestic Product
The tourism sector constitutes an important
50
51
component of the Nepali economy with steadily
increasing numbers of visitors till the earthquakes struck. In 2013, Nepal received nearly
800,000 tourists. While the exact contribution
of tourism to the GDP is not available due to
absence of tourism satellite account, the World
Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC) report
2015 mentions direct contribution of 4.3 percent to GDP in 2014. Hotels and restaurants
may contribute about 75 to 80 percent of the
tourism sector’s revenue to GDP (including
domestic tourism).50 With hotels and restaurants contributing about 1.9 percent to GDP in
2012, international tourism contributed about
two percent to GDP. This is more or less similar
to estimates of other developing countries.
However, domestic tourism is not accounted for
and no national survey to understand its contribution had been carried out so far. Aggregating
the contribution of domestic tourism and that
of other subsectors, which are not accounted for,
to the tourism sector, total contribution of hotels
and restaurants to GDP according to the World
Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC) 2015 report was 8.9 percent in 2014.
Employment Generation
The Tourism Employment Survey, 2014 of the
Ministry of Culture, Tourism & Civil Aviation
(MoCTCA) indicates that approximately 138,148
persons were engaged in the tourism sector.51
Based on the National Living Standards Survey
(NLSS) 2011, more women than men are engaged
in the tourism sector. Analysis of the hotel and
restaurant survey indicates that 52 percent of the
people employed in this sector are women. The
WTTC 2015 report, based on pre-earthquake
data, indicates that in 2014 travel and tourism in
Nepal directly supported 487,500 jobs (3.5 percent of total employment). The number of jobs
was expected to rise by 4 percent in 2015 and by 3
percent per annum to 681,000 jobs in 2025. Following the earthquakes, these numbers will need
to be revisited.
Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) estimates
There is a caveat that the survey findings were based on only 10 districts and some 193 enterprises and therefore the estimate is associated with some uncertainty.
115
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 9.1: Foreign Exchange Earnings from Tourism (2001-2001 to 2013-2013)
Year
Total foreign exchange
earnings from
tourism (million npr)
As % of total value of
merchandise exports
As % of total
value of exports of goods
and non-factor services
As % of total
foreign exchange
earnings
As % of
GDP
2000-01
11,717
16.8
11.8
5.7
2.7
2001-02
8,654
14.9
10.6
4.8
1.9
2002-03
11,748
23.1
15.2
6.1
2.4
2003-04
18,147
32.9
20.3
8.0
3.4
2004-05
10,464
17.5
12.2
4.7
1.8
2005-06
9,556
15.5
10.9
3.6
1.5
2006-07
10,125
16.5
10.8
3.7
1.4
2007-08
18,653
30.1
17.9
5.5
2.3
2008-09
27,960
40.0
22.8
6.5
2.8
2009-10
28,139
44.5
24.6
8.1
2.4
2010-11
24,611
35.8
20.2
5.0
1.8
2011-12
30,704
37.7
20.0
4.8
2.0
2012-13
34,211
39.8
18.9
4.7
2.0
Source: Nepal Rastra Bank, 2013
Table 9.2: Some Indicators on the Tourism Sector's Contribution to the Government's Fiscal Revenue
Year
Indirect tax (million NPR)
Internal commodity tax revenue collection (million NPR)
2010
2011
2,221.4
2,551.9
VAT (tourism services)
1,057.4
Administrative fees (immigration and tourism)
5,481.9
Non-tax revenue
1,928.5
2,059.2
Visa fees
1,221.9
1,268.8
1,781.9
Mountain trekking fees
343.5
366.9
508.8
Pollution control fees
363.1
423.5
Other tourism fees
2.1
Corporate and other taxes
Total (Excluding corporate and other taxes)
NA
NA
NA
4,149.9
4,651.1
8,832.1
Source: Data extracted from Financial Comptroller’s Annual Report of the respective years
Note: In Nepal, tax contribution to fiscal revenue of the government from tourism consists of the following:
• Airport taxes, fees and levies
• Hotel, restaurant, tour and travel agency, car rental and nightclub registration/licensing fees
• Corporate and personal income taxes
• Import duties on imported items used in tourism
• Taxes on local inputs to the tourism sector
• Entertainment tax (tourist expenditure taxes in hotels, restaurants, etc.)
• Entry fees to tourist attractions –parks and reserves, cultural and heritage sites
• Trekking, expedition and climbing peaks levies
• Municipal, local level taxes including property taxes and copyright fees
116
2012
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Foreign Exchange Earnings from Tourism
Tourism Trends
At the macroeconomic level, tourism is the third
largest economic sector for foreign exchange
earnings after remittances and export of goods
and services. Currently, revenue from tourism
accounts for about 40 percent of the contribution of merchandise export, 19 percent of the
total value of goods and non-factor services, 4.7
percent of total foreign exchange earnings and
about 2.0 percent of GDP.
Annual tourist arrivals to Nepal have a typical seasonality with arrivals peaking during the
summer (March to May) and winter (September to November). Arrivals range from around
80,000 to 90,000 visitors in March, October
and November to around 50,000 in May, June
and July. The growth of tourists from China
has contracted the tourism off-season in Nepal,
with arrivals from China during the lean season
filling the gaps from the long-haul markets of
North America and Western Europe and other
short-haul markets like India.
Fiscal Aspects of Tourism
In 2012, the directly visible government revenue
from the sector was NPR 8,832 million (Table
9.2), and represented about 3.6 percent of total
government revenue. This, however, excludes
direct corporate and various other taxes, which
the tourism sector pays through industries.
Tourism Establishments in Nepal
The majority of registered hotels are located in
the two main tourist hubs of the country – Kathmandu and Pokhara. Hotels range from tourist
standard to five star accommodation in these
locations (Table 9.3). There are 160 registered
homestays around Nepal but a significant number of homestays are not yet registered with the
government. The total number of non-MoCTCA
registered properties was 2,604, which provided
35,789 tourist rooms and 69,040 tourist beds
in the 15 major and five minor tourism sites.52
Most of these additional lodgings are homestays,
teahouse lodges and monastery accommodations.
The tourism statistics for 2013 show 2,336
registered travel agencies and tour operators, 1,665 trekking agencies and 56 rafting
agencies (Table 9.4).
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
The two main volume markets, India and
China, have shown encouraging trends in arrivals
to Nepal. In the past five years, the average annual
growth rate of Chinese and Indian visitors has
been 26 percent and 14 percent respectively. The
growth from the rest of the world has been about
8 percent a year. As share of visitors from India
and China accounts for about 36 percent, the
overall growth in tourist arrivals has been pulled
up to 10 percent a year over the past five years.
Global Comparison
With total tourism receipts of NPR 42,900
million in 2013, Nepal ranks 23rd among Asia
and Pacific tourism economies.­53 Nepal’s tourism yield appears low in comparison with most
global and Asian destinations. In comparison
with other regions and countries in Asia:
•Nepal attracts 0.1 percent of global
international visitors and 5.7 percent of arrivals to South Asia.
• International visitors’ receipts per arrival in
2013 was NPR 53,800, which is less than
half the global average, a third of Bhutan
Table 9.3: Registered Hotel Accommodation in Nepal by Category and Capacity, 2013
Hotel standard
Number
No. of rooms
No. of beds
Five star
10
1,818
3,461
Four star
2
190
362
Three star
27
796
1,707
Two star
35
1,513
3,096
One star
31
964
2,374
Tourist standard
625
9,985
23,382
Total
730
15,266
34,382
Source: Ministry of Culture, Tourism & Civil Aviation, Tourism Industry Division, 2070 B.S.
52
53
Nepal Tourism Board (NTB), 2011, Tourist Accommodation Facilities in the Major Tourist Areas of Nepal
UNWTO, 2013, World Tourism Barometer, Volume 12, April 2013, Annexure
117
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
and Thailand, and around a quarter of
the receipts per arrival in India. As per
MoCTCA figures for 2013, a total of 10.42
million tourist days were spent resulting in
an average length of stay of 12.51 nights per
tourist. This leads to a daily spend per visitor
of only NPR 4,280.
Post-Disaster Context
Disaster Effects
The immediate damages and losses on the tourism sector as a result of the earthquakes are:
• Tourist numbers are down by about 90 percent between May and July 2015.
• About NPR 16 billion worth of hotel properties are fully or partially damaged in the
affected areas.
•Domestic airline operators reported total
monthly income losses of about NPR 400 million for the month following the earthquake.
• Tourist accommodations of different types
were either fully or partially damaged in
the Langtang, Gorkha-Manaslu, Khumbu,
Charikot, Kalinchok, Jiri and Rolwaling areas and in Dhanding district. A few hotels in
the Kathmandu Valley (including Nagarkot)
were completely damaged with a majority
having minor cracks.
• A portion of key tourism monuments
and heritage attractions have been
reduced to rubble.
• Portions of tourism infrastructure have been
destroyed, e.g., 150 kilometers of trekking
trails have significant damage and 200 kilometers require maintenance and repair,
which also impedes access to rural areas.
• A further implication is on jobs that the sector has provided to the country over the years
and revenue losses.
•Recovering and rebuilding destinations
and visitors’ confidence stands at billions
of Nepali rupees.
Effects on Infrastructure and Assets
The tourism sector has sustained damages of approximately NPR 18,862.8 million, majority of
which (86 percent) comes from hotel accommodations and homestays (9 percent). Trails in the
current form have sustained damages of about
NPR 426.1 million.
Effects on Production of Goods and
Services and Access to Services
The decreased tourism arrivals will affect tourist spending and subsequently lead to a revenue loss of NPR 21,300 million between
May and December 2015. This is estimated
to decrease by about half (to NPR 12,800
million) in the next six-month period. Similarly, there are losses to revenue streams like
Table 9.4: Other Tourism Related Firms and Service Providers
Subsector
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Tourist guides
1,900
2,001
2,071
2,149
2,202
2,271
2,343
2,458
2,548
2,661
2,835
2,935
3102
Trekking guides
2,745
3,094
3,457
3,930
4,395
4,663
5,098
5,356
5,987
6,747
7,303
8,163
9076
24
44
58
115
River guides
Tourist police
53
60
227
Paragliding
company
16
21
21
Ultra-light
Company
1
3
3
Skydiving
2
2
2
Domestic
Airlines
17
15
15
International
airlines
29
28
29
Domestic airport
54
54
54
Source: Ministry of Culture, Tourism & Civil Aviation; Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal, 2013
118
52
52
50
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
permit fees (national parks), tourist service fees
(Nepal Tourism Board), taxation revenue (to the
government), etc. (Table 9.6).
Effects on Governance Functions
and Systems
The decline in public sector revenue flows from
tourism will affect the promotion, maintenance
and upkeep of the tourism sector. There will be
increased costs to respond to market slackness
both to Nepal Tourism Board (NTB) and for the
industry as a whole. The NPR 400 million annual marketing spend of NTB under normal situations and the approximate NPR 1,800 million
aggregated total marketing and promotion spend
of the private sector may have to be increased
multiple-fold to recover and revive the market.
•
•
The information provision function at the regional and district levels will require strengthening through well-managed information centres
to provide up-to-date information to tourists
related to weather or information on trekking
trails. Some of these functions can be carried out
jointly with the private sector.
•
Increased Risks and Vulnerabilities
•
After the earthquakes, Nepal must now be prepared for secondary disasters like rockfall, slope
failures, glacial lake outburst floods and avalanches, particularly during the coming monsoon season. Safety has now surfaced as a critical
issue; hazards may arise from visitors to monuments/buildings at heritage sites.
There is an increased need to invest in an early
warning system to ensure safe tourist experiences for all market segments. This will mean
additional costs over and above the calculated
reconstruction costs.
General Observations on Risks to
Tourism in Nepal
• Mountain tourism is in general more vulnerable to calamities due to geophysical challenges, weather conditions, climate change
and inappropriate human behavior. Mitigating measures to date have been based on enterprise and industry practices and guided by
the experience and skills of the trekking and
tourism industry.
•No inventory/assessment/classification of
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
trekking routes exists to date. Trail sections
are declared insecure based on assessments
by trekking companies and individual companies make their own assessment of use.
The protected area system in Nepal (national
parks and conservation areas) do not have an
inventory system in place that assesses the safety of their areas with respect to natural disasters.
Mountain communities and residents relying on tourism are particularly at risk. As
residents they are exposed to the general increased risk of landslides, rockfall, floods, etc.
associated with mountain settings. As employees and entrepreneurs they are exposed
to the dangers of trekking and mountaineering and as families they are highly vulnerable to changes in visitor numbers and travel
patterns that directly affect their incomes. If
no alternative income sources are available to
the households, their condition is likely to
become severe in the near future.
A clear and present risk is the sustained loss
of income due to the absence of visitors in
the aftermath of the earthquakes. This risk
is not limited to actual earthquake-affected
areas but to the whole of Nepal.
The capital value of tourism in Nepal is found
in the accommodation and transport sectors.
Physical damage to hotels, lodges and resorts
Table 9.5: Damages and Losses to the Tourism Sector
Particulars
Hotels, other accommodations
(Source: DoT/HAN/TAAN)
Homestays (Report under housing sector)
Million NPR
16,294.5
1,720.0
Eco-Lodges in conservation Areas (Source: NTNC)
415.3
Trekking trails (Source: TAAN)
426.1
Tour operators
(Source: NATO)
Total
Particulars
Hotels, other accommodations
(Source: DoT/HAN/TAAN)
Homestays (Report under housing sector)
6.9
24,573.70
Million NPR
16,294.5
1,720.0
Eco-lodges in conservation areas (Source: NTNC)
415.3
Trekking trails (Source: TAAN)
426.1
Tour operators (Source: NATO)
Total
6.9
18,862.81
119
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
stay physical damage is reported in the housing
chapter. However, it is worth noting that 57
percent of all homestays are owned by women
and as such damages in this subsector are likely
to affect women more adversely.
incurs high financial costs compounded by the
loss of income due to the absence of guests.
Existing loans are in danger of defaulting in
the absence of sufficient income, making (re)
financing of repairs and retrofitting difficult.
Staff lay-offs are expected, combined with increased labour migration to other Asian countries and the Gulf States. More women than
men, however, are likely to be laid off first but
have limited options (such as migration) for
alternative livelihoods.
Physical damages for the hotel subsector could
not be calculated as the data on damages to rooms
and beds was not available from the districts.
A total of NPR 62.4 billion of revenue losses is
estimated due to a combination of destruction
and non-availability of tourism facilities and the
drastic decline in foreign tourist arrivals post the
disaster. The revenue losses result from losses in
tourism revenues, air transport revenues, tour
operator revenues, trekking revenues and restaurant revenues. The losses in revenue will cascade
for several years starting from May 2015 till
June 2017. Losses will stop when all destroyed
assets have been rebuilt and when the number of
foreign tourists recovers to normal levels.
Demand Side
The arrivals numbers to Nepal have drastically
declined by 90 percent compared to May 2014.
It is expected that this downturn will remain for
the next couple of months. The industry expects
visitor numbers to be 40 percent lower in the
fiscal year 2015-2016 following the earthquake
compared to 2014-2015. Whilst new travel insurance products are widely available, the majority exclude claims made where a government
has advised against travel to Nepal and/or claims
directly or indirectly relating to the reason the
government advised against travel to that country, i.e., claims related to the earthquakes.
Impacts of the Disaster
It is important to note that the overall impact
of the earthquakes on the tourism sector goes
beyond the 14 most-affected districts. The negative repercussions of the disaster are likely to
mean a reduced number of tourist arrivals over
the next two to three years and reduction in
spend per day to about NPR 3,500 from NPR
4,300.54 Other nations that have experienced a
similar disaster have generally taken several years
to recover fully with regard to tourist arrivals.
The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO),
Government of UK communication advising
visitors to remain in Nepal only if absolutely essential is seen as a major constraint for adventure
travel insurance providers. There are other travel
advisories from other countries as well. It is unlikely that this will change during the monsoon
season which influences the ‘booking’ for upcoming peak season September to November severely.
It is estimated that the overall impact on the Nepali tourism industry will be a reduction of tourists’ arrival annually of about 40 percent, on average, over the next 12 months and a 20 per cent
reduction in the following 12 to 24 months.
The tourism sector has sustained damages to assets worth NPR 18,862.8 million (full destruction damages of NPR 5,053.5 million and NPR
13,809.3 million of partial damages) , which
includes hotel and restaurant facilities and furniture, homestays, eco-lodges, trails, etc. Home-
However, the impact on tourist arrivals is not
expected to be uniform across the three market
Table 9.6: Impact on Tourism Subsector Revenues
Subsector
May-Dec 2015
(NPR million )
Jan-Jun 2016
(NPR million )
Jul 2016-Jun 2017
(NPR million)
Domestic airlines loss of revenue (Source: AOAN)
2,000.0
1,280.0
1,440.0
Revenue losses – Tour operators
1,851.7
1,228.9
1,843.4
Income losses – Trekking
5,711.3
0.0
0.0
11.1
0.0
0.0
Income losses – Restaurants in Kathmandu alone
Source: NATO
54
120
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 9.7: Summary Table of Estimates of Damages and Losses
Value of damages
(NPR million)
Damages
Hotels and others
Value of total
flow changes
(NPR million)
Time distribution of revenue losses
2015-16
(NPR million )
2016-17
(NPR million)
18,862.77
16,294.5
Homestays
1,720.0
Eco-lodges
415.3
Trekking trails
426.1
Tour operators
6.9
Changes in flows
62,379.32
40,477.69
16,179.36
Tourism revenues
47,013.0
34,117.1
12,896.0
4,720.0
3,280.0
1,440.0
Air transport revenues
Homestay
495.3
Tour operator revenues
4,924.0
3,080.6
1,843.4
Trekking revenues
5,711.3
Not estimated
Not estimated
Restaurant revenues
Promotion campaign costs
Cost of demolition and rubble removal
segments. High-end cultural/leisure tourism is
likely to suffer relatively more than the other
segments. At least 55 to 60 percent reduction
in number of groups over the next 12 months
is expected. As only minor damage has been
reported from Chitwan and the tourism infrastructure in Lumbini has not been affected at all,
it is expected that religious tourism to Lumbini
will recover in 12 months. For trekking, visitors
in the higher end segment are more likely to
cancel their visits and the impact is expected to
be a 70 percent reduction over a 12 month period. The number of lower-end trekking groups
is expected to recover quickly, with an estimated
reduction of 20 percent over a 12 month period.
Trekking Association of Nepal reports that
40,000 employees (guides, porters, cooks, etc.)
engaged in the trekking subsector (combining all the major trekking destinations) have
no jobs between May and July 2015 and were
sent home. Similarly Nepal’s Tour Guides Association has reported that 228 tour guides are no
longer employed as a result of the earthquakes
as there are hardly any tourists to take around
in Durbar Square in Kathmandu, Bhaktapur
and Patan. Restaurants in Kathmandu reported
a total of 335 contractual workers who lost their
jobs. Taking into account that the tourism sec-
11.1
Not estimated
Not estimated
5,250
2,730.0
2,520
3,772.56
3,018.1
754.5
tor employs more women than men, it can also
be assumed that more women have lost jobs
than men, particularly when one considers that
women occupy less skilled jobs such as housekeeping which can be easily taken over by men.
A sustained absence of visitors from highlyaffected areas (due to destroyed infrastructure,
enterprises and geophysical dangers) is likely to
lead to a (permanent) relocation of residents to
other areas, resulting in their livelihoods getting
disconnected from their place of origin.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
The Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and recovery process of the tourism sector is modelled on
the following needs which have been identified:
- Cost of demolition and rubble removal
- Cost of promotion campaign abroad to attract tourists
- Rescheduling of previous loans to hotel and
restaurant owners
- Temporary tax holidays, perhaps over one year
As for reconstruction needs, the total amount
required for reconstruction is NPR 22.6 billion
Total promotion costs includes two elements:
(i) the estimated regular annual budget for pro121
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
motion allocated by the Government of Nepal
through Nepal Tourism Board, which is assumed to remain the same as 2014, and (ii) the
total cost of promotion by the tourism industry
as a whole through sales calls, web marketing,
print marketing, e-newsletters, sales missions,
roadshows/trade shows, and other media which
is roughly at least five times higher than the government’s annual budget (using historical data).
Implementation
Arrangements
The earthquakes are likely to have a sustained
negative impact on the tourism sector in Nepal
and the wider economy, and mountain livelihoods unless a number of mitigating initiatives
are pursued. These efforts need to target the
global tourism market and convince (potential)
visitors to come to Nepal as well as provide assistance to the affected rural and urban tourism entrepreneurs. The recovery strategy has
four distinct phases: [1] identify and assess
unaffected and safe destinations and enterprises
where tourism can start quickly; [2] create a
Safe Trekking System for mountain tourism in
Nepal, [3] rebuild and redevelop damaged areas and enterprises following improved guidelines and regulations as per the new Safe Trekking System and [4] identify and develop new
tourist products and services. Some of these
phases can be sequential or run in parallel
depending on needs.
Phase 1: Short-term Arrangements
Conduct a rapid post-earthquake assessment
of Annapurna and Khumbu (Everest) regions
through a specialized ATC-20 audit (earthquake
damage assessment) to prove the safety of these
areas and enable visitors to return (to selected areas). Accommodation establishments in rural and
urban areas should obtain a similar assessment
certificate enabling them to be used by visitors.
Package tours to unaffected areas can be offered.
An appropriate marketing and promotion plan for
the upcoming peak season (September-November
2015) should be created with all stakeholders. A
special effort should be made to attract visitors
from India, which is close and forms a resilient
market driven by pilgrimage and religious objectives. Cultural heritage sites assessed as safe should
be opened for visitors in Kathmandu Valley.
122
Immediate relief through soft loans and loan restructuring is a need for the tourism industry (in
particular hotels and restaurants) to recover. More
details are reported in the financial sector chapter.
Phase 2: CREATE A SAFE TREKKING SYSTEM
Standards are to be formulated for all elements of
a Safe Trekking System, including communication
coverage throughout the areas/trails, a monitoring system that captures movement of visitors and
staff along a trail, rescue procedures and management, shelter provision at each daily section of a
trail, enterprises built and operating according to
safety standards and infrastructure, and resources
built and operated according to safety standards.
These improved products should be supported by
an appropriate management system that provides
a grading system for trails and climbs, promotes
trails and climbs, incorporates a revenue collection
system able to cover the costs of safety monitoring and management, maintenance of trails as per
management plan, investment in infrastructure
upkeep and expansion, and staff skills and training.
Phase 3: Rebuild and Redevelop Damaged Areas and Enterprises
Assess and design financial and technical relief
packages (e.g., credit lines and ‘soft loans’ through
local commercial banks) for hotels, restaurants
and other tourism enterprises for reconstruction and rebuilding with earthquake-resistant
technologies and according to the Safe Trekking
System guidelines (where applicable) to enable
accommodation facilities to sustain at a basic
operational level. The financial relief package requires more detailed discussion with Nepal Rastra
Bank and Nepal Bankers Association when being
formulated. In order to assist tourism enterprises
to revive their business, the government could
come up with training schemes/interventions
for newly recruited workforce, as many of the
old workers have left for their home districts. Attention should also be paid to women who own
hospitality establishments, especially homestays,
who may find it difficult to recover quickly due
to limited access to financial resources.
Selected trekking areas are to be rehabilitated and
the option to open areas for trekking which have
earlier been restricted, such as Upper Mustang,
should be assessed as this would both generate
attention and also entice trekkers to return. To-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
PDNA
Sector
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Questions
Indicators
Indicative recommendations to address DRR
for recovery of the sector
What safety is
requested & required by
visitors?
•Travel insurance cover for Nepal
•Liability insurance cover for tour companies
Travel insurance and liability insurance
underwriter’s guidelines for Nepal
in/to Nepal
• Foreign travel advice to Nepal by source market Travel advice criteria for Nepal in source countries
• # visitors asking for safety schemes
How can safety for
tourists against natural
disasters be provided?
Do tourist facilities
consider appropriate
building codes and bylaws and policies and
are there plans in place
by the government for
safe construction?
• Certified enterprises (accommodation,
museum, shops, information centres)
• Certified infrastructure (pathways, bridges,
signage, drinking water stations, shelters,
viewpoints, high-pass crossings)
• Communications system covering the
complete destination area/trekking route
• Visitor monitoring system in place for the
destination areas
•Rescue services operational in the
destination area
• # of appropriate shelters and location of
shelters
• Classification of the geophysical attributes
of a destination area/trail in terms of
its safety (high, medium, low risk) with
seasonal adaptation
• # Enterprises that are built and operate
according to appropriate codes
• # appropriate building guidelines that are
used and which are location specific
• % tourist facilities for which measures have
been taken to enable them to withstand
expected hazards
• % enforcing existing policies, standards
and guidelines regarding safe construction,
including risk assessment during site selection
and hazard-resistant building designs
Creation of the Nepal Safe Trekking System
comprising standards and regulations at two levels:
• [1] Product Level
•Communication
•Monitoring
•Rescue
•Shelter
•Enterprise
• Infrastructure & resources
• [2] Management Level
•Grading
•Promotion
•Revenue collection
• Maintenance of trails
• Investment in infrastructure
• Staff skills and roles
Formulation of appropriate criteria and regulation
for each of the Safe Trekking System categories
Formulation of tourism safety standards per type
of enterprise and location, incorporating climate
adaptation/resilience guidelines for mountain
areas
Management capacity and mandate at district
or protected area levels to inspect and assess
building regulation
Grading system to be created for enterprises to
incorporate safety aspects
Implementation of the Safe Trekking System
Do tourists and tourism
staff have access to
forecasts and warnings
to common hazards
(floods, landslides,
avalanches etc.)?
• % of tourism areas where forecasts/warning
Are there disaster
preparedness systems
and other protective
and safety measures
for tourism? Are there
appropriate policies
and plans in place
by the government
for responding
to emergencies,
preparedness and longterm resilience of the
sector?
• % sites and areas with facilities for
Formulation of business plans and visitor
management plans
•
Creation of certified training course on
appropriate mountain tourism behaviour and
conducting of training
What is tourism doing
in terms of worker
safety and insurance?
• % of workers insured
•Employment standard available
• # enterprises following employment standards
information is made available to tourists
• % of communication coverage across
destination areas
•
•
•
emergency communication of warnings/
forecasts and arrival tracking/monitoring
#appropriate operational plans for national
parks & conservation areas
# appropriate operational visitor
management plans for heritage sites
#staff trained and certified in appropriate
behaviour in mountain environments
% of hotels/tourist facilities with disaster
preparedness plans in place based on risk
assessments, including business continuity plans
Creation of an early warning system and
communication system
Implementation of the Safe Trekking System
Creation of a template for a disaster preparedness
plan and business continuity plan
Assessment of insurance appropriateness and
possible enhancement measures
Implementation of the Safe Trekking System
Assessment and adaptation of insurance scheme
Formulation of employment standards
123
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
gether with communities and local operators, a
selection of small-scale repair/recovery projects
that can be developed quickly should be drawn
up. Donations can be channeled into this area.
All reconstruction will follow a labour intensive
approach and work guarantee scheme. In close
cooperation and collaboration with relevant organizations like UNESCO, repair and rebuilding
of priority heritage sites of cultural importance
is to be undertaken to allow income-generating
tourism usage.
ment of 2017 or 2018 as ‘Visit Nepal Year’, assuming that reconstruction and rebuilding will
be completed by then. Hence, significant effort
and resources and coordination among key stakeholders are required to ensure that foreign tourists
perceive Nepal as a safe destination.
Assessment Methodology
To assess the damage to infrastructure and physical assets, the team consulted government counterparts led by MoCTCA and sought active support from the Department of Tourism and the
NTB. Other agencies who supported with information include Department of National Parks
and Wildlife Conservation (DNPWC) and Nepal Trust for Nature and Conservation (NTNC).
As part of the national rebuilding effort, the recently completed National Tourism Strategy Plan
(NTSP) with a 10 year horizon and a detailed five
year action plan is to be re-examined in the light
of the earthquakes and their aftermath to identify
new challenges and re-prioritize important tasks
so that the tourism industry recovers quickly.
The key source of information on damages
and losses were the private sector business associations such as the Hotel Association of Nepal
(HAN), Trekking Agencies’ Association of Nepal (TAAN), Nepal Mountaineering Association
(NMA), Nepal Association of Tour Operators
Finally, there is a need to rebuild and re-brand the
image of tourism in Nepal, including announce-
Table 9.8: Summary of Recovery Needs
Financial year (NPR million)
Recovery needs
Demolition and rubble removal
Total
2015-16
2016-17
10,866
5,209
16,075
3,018
755
3,773
Promotion campaign costs
2,730
2,520
5,250
Loan rescheduling
5,118
1,934
7,052
Reconstruction
18,571
4,064
22,635
Hotels
15,643
3,911
19,553
Homestays
2,064
-
2,064
Eco-Lodges in conservation areas
498
-
498
Trekking trails
358
153
511
8
-
8
29,437
9,273
38,710
Tour operators Office
Total
Table 9.9: Proposed Short-term Activities for Tourism Sector Recovery
Activity
Cost
Coverage
Duration
July 2015
Safety assessment
ATC-20 audit for Annapurna and Khumbu
TBD
Samarth-NMDP & WBG
Safety audit for enterprises
TBD
TBD/Industry associations
Travel advisory adjustment
TBD
Samarth-NMDP
September 2015
Tour operator buy-in from source markets
TBD
NATO
July & August 2015
Special Indian market promotion
TBD
NTB
July & August 2015
Communication
124
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 9.10: Proposed Activities for Safe Trekking and Trails Reconstruction
Activity
Cost
Coverage
Duration
October 2015
Creation of a Nepal Safe Trekking System
Design of standards and criteria for product
TBD
Samarth-NMDP
Reconstruction, repair of trekking trails
TBD
ILO, WBG, WFP, TAAN, NMA
(NATO), Nepal Association of Tour and Travel
Agents (NATTA), Tour Guide Association of Nepal (TURGAN) and others. The assessment was
based on the number of physical assets damaged
and the estimates provided by these organisations.
Post-disaster average spend per day is estimated at 82 percent, 89 percent and 93 percent
of normal average spend for May to December
2015, Jan to June 2016 and July 2016 to June
2017 respectively.
In order to estimate the impact on overall revenues, the team calculated the normal or predisaster revenue forecast and the post-disaster
revenue forecast; the difference of the two gave
the estimated post-disaster losses. The following
calculations were used to arrive at the figures:
Revenue forecast = Arrival of tourists*Average tourist expenditure/visit
The Recovery Needs Estimation includes the
total annual expenditure of promotion campaigns (comprising both government and
private sector contributions) and the working
capital (line of credit) requirements. Rescheduling of previous loans to hotel and restaurant
owners are roughly estimated at 25 percent of
revenue losses. Cost of demolition and rubble
removal has been calculated at 20 percent of
the cost of destroyed buildings.
The normal average tourist expenditure/visit was
calculated as follows, where the estimates were
based on the National Tourism Strategy Plan,
2015-2024:
Average length stay (days)*Average spend per day
For homestay, it is assumed that total revenue
losses will be around NPR 495 million, assuming a loss of NPR 1,000 per night for a total
of six months.
The Reconstruction Needs Estimation includes
the need for tourist accommodations including
hotels, homestays, lodges in conservation areas,
trekking trails, physical assets of tour operators,
reconstruction, rebuilding and retrofitting. These
have been estimated at 1.2 times of the damage
estimation under the build back better concept.
Recovery Needs Assumptions:
The normal arrival of tourists for May-December 2015, January to June 2016 and July 2016
to June 2017 was calculated assuming a 1 percent increase on the 2014 arrival data, which was
made available by the Department of Tourism.
The post-disaster arrival of tourists for MayJuly 2015 has been estimated at 10 per cent of
normal arrivals; for August to December 2015
at 40 percent of normal arrivals; for January to
June 2016 at 60 percent, and for July 2016 to
June 2017 at 80 percent. From July 2017 onwards it is assumed that the numbers will reach
pre-earthquake arrivals.
Average length of stay is estimated at 67 percent,
75 percent and 92 percent of normal average for
May to December 2015, January to June 2016
and July 2016 to June 2017 respectively.
- Cost of demolition and rubble removal
(20 percent of the cost of destroyed buildings based on similar cases elsewhere in the
world)
- Rescheduling of previous loans to hotel and
restaurant owners, which are roughly estimated at 25 percent of revenue losses (on the
basis of informal consultations with selected
tourism sector representatives)
- Temporary tax holidays, perhaps over one
year, was a requirement expressed by hotel
and restaurant owners interviewed
Reconstruction Assumption:
Cost of reconstruction using disaster-resilient standards (i.e., 20 percent above
value of damage).
125
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
126
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
10. Financial Sector
Summary
The earthquakes exacerbate Nepal’s already complex financial sector challenges. In the years prior
to the earthquakes, successes have been achieved
in expanding the reach of the financial system,
in restructuring state-controlled financial institutions and improving legal frameworks. Nonetheless, a significant proportion of the population
lacks access to financial services, and the banking
sector remains exposed to several vulnerabilities,
including concerns over asset quality. The framework for financial crisis management is still in
the development stage and depositor safety net
is in the early stages of implementation. Work
to reform the insurance sector is now underway
but will not be completed for some time, and the
frameworks for supervision of the largely unregulated microfinance sector are very weak.
Thanks to a decisive policy response, operational disturbances in financial infrastructure
caused by the earthquakes were short-lived outside the affected areas and the overall financial
sector remains sound in the aftermath of the
earthquakes. This is a remarkable achievement,
given the serious physical damage to Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) premises, and the absence of
a Disaster Recovery Site (DRS) and Business
Continuity Plans (BCPs). Although retail electronic banking holds considerable promise for
expanding access and enhancing efficiency and
speed in the delivery of financial services, it has
not yet reached a stage where it can substitute
for damaged bank branches.
The non-banking financial sector, particularly
microfinance and cooperatives, is more heavily
impacted than the banking sector. Preliminary
impact assessments point to a very large number
of affected members. Most of the borrowers will
see their income flow severely affected and lack
alternative income generating activities. This
could translate into liquidity and solvency pressures on the microfinance sector, impacting its
capacity to assist communities in times of need.
55
From the preliminary estimates, it is suggested
that the total damages and potential losses suffered by the banking and insurance sectors are
expected to be NPR 5 billion and NPR 26.9
billion respectively.55 However, it must be
strongly emphasized that these estimates are
based on currently available information, which
is largely anecdotal and unsupported by the data
needed for precision. It will take many months
for the true extent of damages to the sector to
become fully apparent. There are specific concerns that if the damages to financial institutions is greater than initial estimates, there is
potential for de-leveraging across the sector (a
‘credit crunch’), with the impact concentrated
in the lower tiers of the system, affecting access
to finance by poor and rural communities. The
quantification of losses also does not recognize
the inherent risks posed to the gains made over
recent years in reforming the banking sector by
post-earthquake relaxation of prudential rules,
or the potential delays to the implementation of
further reforms as a result of the need to address
post-earthquake problems first.
Pre-Disaster Context
Overview of the Financial System
Nepal’s financial system is bank-dominated,
with decreasing but significant state ownership
(Table 10.1). There are four classes of NRBregulated banks and financial institutions (BFIs)
differentiated by their capital requirements and
range of permissible activities. Non-bank financial institutions and capital markets are in
their initial stages of development, but with
very rapid growth in both numbers and share of
system assets and deposits held in Savings and
Credit Cooperatives (SACCOs). Together with
micro-finance institutions (MFIs) and financial
intermediary NGOs (FINGOs), these are the
primary source of financial services for poor and
rural communities.
Despite tangible advances in expanding out-
Potential losses could increase by 30 percent as per information being received.
127
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
reach of the banking sector, important gaps in
the provision of financial services remain. The
financial sector has been growing rapidly (driven
in part by the increasing volume of remittances),
with deposits, credit and number of branches
and ATMs (heavily concentrated in the Kathmandu Valley and urban areas) increasing over
the past few years. Deposit mobilization and
credit to the private sector exceeds the South
Asian average. Accessibility in general has improved: the number of BFI branches has doubled in eight years. Nonetheless, an urban-rural
and gender gap persists, only partially remedied
by the growth of MFIs, FINGOs and SACCOs.
Key Pre-Earthquake Challenges and
Strengths
Access to Finance
Several SACCOs have become problematic in
the absence of adequate supervisory and regulatory frameworks. This adversely affects the reputation of the sector and its capacity to function
as a reliable first point of entry into the financial
system for poorer people. Work to address the
risks in the non-bank financial sector has begun,
but wholesale reform of the regulatory and supervisory frameworks for SACCOs, and build-
ing the capacity of SACCOs and the regulator
remains to be done.
Similarly, access to finance is a major constraint
for firms, especially for small- and medium-sized
enterprises (SMSEs). Administrative measures
have been taken to channel funds to deprived
sectors via MFIs (now representing about 4.5
percent of total BFI loans), promote the flow
of credit to productive sectors, lower the intermediation cost and to address what is perceived
as excessive profitability in the banking sector.
Comparatively little progress has however been
made in strengthening the enabling environment, with important gaps in credit reporting
systems, secured transactions, creditor rights
and insolvency frameworks, retail payment system development, and consumer protection and
financial literacy.
At the micro level, access to formal finance by
rural communities, especially women, is also a
major challenge. Their lack of collateral forces
them to rely on informal microcredit structures
that charge exorbitant interest rates, thereby
constraining their ability to grow their micro
enterprises.
Table 10.I: Structure of Nepal's Financial Sector
Financial Institution
Number
Total deposits
(NPR million )
% of
Total
Total loans
(NPR million)
% of
Total
Total assets
(NPR million )
% of
Total
Commercial A1
30
1,291,660
72.79
1,013,724
68.91
1,599,295
72
Development B1
81
202,679
11.42
168,676
11.47
261,271
11.76
Finance C
51
74,893
4.22
65,694
4.47
112,488
5.06
35
13,093
0.74
44,077
3
58,433
2.63
Cooperatives–NRB
15
15,046
0.85
14,027
0.95
21,083
0.95
Micro credit NGO
27
4,744
0.27
10,356
0.7
14,000
0.63
239
1,602,115
90.28
1,316,554
89.5
2,066,570
93.04
13,368
129,000
7.27
117,147
7.96
117,200
5.28
1
Microfinance D
1
2
2
Subtotal regulated by NRB
Cooperatives savings & credit3
4,114
31,400
1.77
27,041
1.84
27,100
1.22
Subtotal
Cooperatives multipurpose
17,482
160,400
9.04
144,188
9.8
144,300
6.5
Other cooperatives3
13,695
12,100
0.68
10,305
0.7
10,331
0.47
Total cooperatives
31,177
172,500
9.72
154,493
10.5
154,631
6.96
Grand total
31,416
1,774,615
100
1,471,047
100
2,221,201
100
3
1 As of Mid-January 2015
2 As of Mid-May 2015
3 As of Mid-July 2014
128
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Progress in modernization of the payments system has been slow and consequently the use of
electronic payments remains limited, reducing
the efficiency, safety and reach of the payment
infrastructure. A comprehensive National Payments Systems Development strategy has been
developed and action plans are now being prepared, but out of 541 Village Development
Committees (VDCs) in 10 most impacted districts (excluding Kathmandu, Lalitpur, Bhaktapur and Kavre), there are only 86 VDCs with
some form of financial services touch points.56
Excessive Number of BFIs with Low Capital
Base and sub-optimal Financial Intermediation
At face value, the Nepali banking sector appears
highly profitable, reasonably well capitalized
and asset quality appears good, but reported financial ratios do not necessarily reflect the true
financial condition of BFIs. There are too many
small BFIs with limited capital base, weak risk
management systems and governance. Given
these weaknesses, the financial system is vulnerable to shocks and does not adequately fulfill its
purpose of intermediating resources to finance
Nepal’s infrastructure investment and development needs. In response, NRB has imposed a
moratorium on new licenses for BFIs, promoted
mergers, and in 2014 started in-depth special
inspections of 54 banks. As a result, NRB has
successfully identified and taken action against
weaker institutions and seen improvements in
the overall quality of financial reporting, while
the number of BFIs has also fallen rapidly. Intermediation cost (net spread) has decreased to
more acceptable levels. In parallel, NRB is working to build up and modernize its supervisory
capacity, while the government is working to
reform the legal framework for bank supervision
and regulation and strengthen the deposit guarantee system to bolster depositor confidence and
reduce liquidity risks.
Banking Sector Profits are Sound
Profits of the banking sector are considered
sound with commercial banks registering profits in the second quarter of FY 2014-2015 at a
record high – a total of NPR 14.4 billion in six
56
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
months compared to NPR 9.4 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. Average
ROE is estimated to be above 15 percent.
Low Rate of Reported non-performing Loans
The level of non-performing loans (NPLs) reported for the banking sector stood at around
2.7 percent of the total loan portfolio as of
Q2FY15 compared to 3.1 percent reported a
year ago. NPL levels have been hovering between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent since FY10.
Average NPLs for all class of banks (A, B and C)
is reported to be 3.9 percent in Q1FY15 compared to 4.1 percent in Q1FY14. While NPLs
are adequately covered by loan loss provisions,
the special inspection report indicates underreporting of impaired assets.
Ample Liquidity in the Banking System
The banking sector continues to have surplus
liquidity despite significant growth in loan disbursement in the first two quarters of FY15.
Excess liquidity is being mopped up by NRB
through deposit auction and reverse repos on
a periodic basis. The weighted average 91-days
Treasury-bill (T-bill) as of Q2FY15 was 0.1151
percent compared to 0.47 percent a year ago.
Similarly, interbank rate was 0.15 percent compared to 0.21 percent a year ago. However, interbank rates amongst other financial institutions (other than commercial banks) declined
only slightly to 2.51 percent from 2.62 percent
a year ago.
Post-Disaster Context
Disaster Effects
Financial Infrastructure
Operational disturbances in financial infrastructure caused by the earthquakes were short-lived
outside the affected areas, minimizing disruptions
in the availability of payment services. However,
damage to the physical infrastructure of banks
in the affected areas has been high, with 408
branches and 652 ATMs owned by Class A, B
and C BFIs damaged. Cost of damages is estimated at about NPR 864 million. Despite this,
most depositors have regained access to their ac-
This data is sourced from the research department of NRB. It was collected in an interaction post the earthquakes between United Nations Capital Development Fund
(UNCDF) and NRB.
129
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
counts, which has been key in maintaining public confidence in the banking system. Outside
the most heavily affected areas, payment systems
were quickly resumed, remittances could again be
received (and are reported to have increased significantly), and domestic and international trade
flows are restored. NRB has also moved quickly
to relax restrictions on the ability of BFIs to open
new service points and to reduce documentation
requirements for earthquake victims.
The restoration of services has been a remarkable
achievement, given the serious physical damage
to NRB’s headquarters (including its main cash
distribution facilities) and the lack of an NRB
DRS, which means that its core banking systems
– which lie at the centre of the domestic payments and settlement system and management
of monetary and liquidity facilities – remain
vulnerable to destruction by a new disaster. The
cost of replacing the two damaged NRB buildings with a well-equipped modern central bank
is estimated at NPR 3.1 billion.
Banks and Financial Institutions
Deterioration in the quality of loan portfolios
of BFIs resulting from the disaster could occur
as a result of earthquake damage and disruption
in three main ways: (i) as a result of damage or
disruption to otherwise viable businesses (e.g.,
hydro power and tourism), which may need to
restructure their debts and will need additional
finance to repair damage; (ii) damage to uninsured real estate collateral; and (iii) losses on deprived sector lending in the affected areas where
borrowers are unlikely to be able to repay their
loans. If the impact of these factors is significant,
it would lead to de-leveraging and constricting
the flow of credit needed to support reconstruction and development of the economy.
Microfinance Sector and Access to Finance
The livelihoods of very large numbers of low
income people – who rely on microfinance
services as their only source of finance for income generating activities – has been severely
damaged by the earthquakes with the 14 most
impacted districts accounting for 13.6 percent
of the total number of people living below the
poverty line. The preliminary impact assessment
of damages to Class D MFIs and FINGOs estimates that 132,000 members (approximately
10 percent) of licensed MFIs have been af130
fected (72,064 households directly affected and
53,457 livestock lost). Similarly, it is estimated
that about 31 percent of FINGO members
(about 155,000 people) have been impacted.
Out of the total 1,049 MFI branches across the
country, 156 branches (14.9 percent) have been
damaged (partly and fully). Most of the affected
MFIs have also lost all or some of their records.
The cost of reconstruction and data recovery is
expected to hamper the sustainability of MFIs
and, in addition, they will be unable to operate
for months.
As most of the affected borrowers do not have
alternative income generating activities and
sources of repayment, MFIs will face both liquidity and solvency issues, impacting their capacity to assist their communities in a time of
need. The sector is especially vulnerable due to
the lack of diversification of its funding, weak
or non-existent IT systems, and low connectivity. Some MFIs may be susceptible to rapid loss
of liquidity as members withdraw their funds
to pay for immediate expenses and there are no
central liquidity facilities available to supply additional funds. Little is known about the condition and portfolio composition of the 17,000 or
so SACCOs, which are particularly susceptible
to rapid loss of liquidity as members withdraw
their funds to pay for immediate expenses. SACCOs too have no central liquidity facilities available to supply additional funds. Table 10.2 illustrates the impact on SACCOs.
Table 10.2: SACCOs Affected by the
Earthquakes
Particulars
Number of affected SACCOs
Amount of affected loans
Damages
502
NPR 4.9 billion
Physical damage to the assets
NPR 622 million
Number of affected members
221,370
Number of affected households
Number of human casualties
associated with SACCOs
45,178
280
The major probable financial problems which
will be faced by the sector are:
• Deterioration of asset quality: MFIs’ portfolio will most probably be the most damaged
among the financial institutions as low income people in the affected districts in rural
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
areas lost their lives and livelihoods. The level
of NPLs will increase steeply and the Portfolio at Risk (PAR) could reach unacceptable
magnitude for future sustainability of already
fragile balance sheets/operations.
• Falling liquidity leading to a contraction or
cessation of lending and inability to repay
deposits: MFIs and FINGOs receive credit
mostly through mandatory deprived sector
lending from Class A, B and C BFIs and this
borrowing is the most critical component
of funding, representing about 70 percent
of total resource mobilization. As MFIs and
FINGOs in the affected areas are likely to default on existing loans, this source of funding
is also likely to dry up. This loss of liquidity
is likely to be reinforced by falling deposits as
people withdraw savings to fund emergency
costs. SACCOs are thought to be particularly vulnerable to liquidity risks because they
lack any central funding back-up or access to
borrowed funds.
Damages and Losses
Table 10.3 provides an estimate of the total
damages and potential losses suffered by the
banking and insurance sectors.
Sources of Damages
(Infrastructure Damage)
BFIs and the microfinance sector have suffered
significant losses due to damage to their physical
infrastructure and ATM networks in the affected areas. In addition, NRB has suffered about
NPR 1.8 billion of damage to its two buildings.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Replacing these two buildings with RTGS is expected to cost an additional NPR 1.4 billion.
Sources of Potential Losses
Losses from Deterioration in Asset Quality
Deterioration in the quality of loan portfolios of
BFIs could occur as a result of earthquake damage and economic disruption in three main ways:
(i) As a result of damage or disruption to otherwise viable businesses (e.g., hydro power
and tourism) which may need to restructure
their debts and will need additional finance
to repair damage. Some of these losses may
be mitigated by regulatory forbearance, but
this also carries considerable risk of simply
storing up problems – by restructuring unviable debts – for later.
(ii) Damage to uninsured real estate collateral.
All real estate used for collateral by BFIs is required to be insured against earthquake damage – which would pass on any BFI losses
due to damaged collateral to the insurance
sector – but under-insurance is considered
widespread, and weaknesses in credit administration at some BFIs may mean that
insurance policies may not have been perfected (e.g., due to failure to secure building
completion certificates) or renewed, allowing claims to be denied. A lax approach by
some BFIs to requiring borrowers to renew
their insurance on time has been specifically
identified by insurers as a potential source
of disputed claims, meaning that some coverage could be invalidated for BFIs with
poor loan administration.
Table 10.3: Summary of Damages and Losses
Loss
NPR millions
Total
Public
Private
16,542
2,812
13,730
340
40
300
Concessions for housing reconstruction
6,808
4,539
2,269
Cost of potential liability of insurance companies
3,200
128
3,072
26,890
7,519
19,372
Damage
Total
Public
Private
Damage to Central Bank infrastructure
3,130
3,130
0
Damage to BFI and SAACOs infrastructure
1,885
320
1,565
Cost of potential loan loss/ restructuring
Technical assistance required for MFIs
Total losses
Total damages
Total losses and damages
5,015
3,450
1,565
31,905
10,969
20,937
131
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
(iii) Losses on deprived sector lending in the
affected areas where borrowers are unlikely
to be able to repay their loans. Diagnostics
are urgently needed to determine the extent of damage to BFIs’ asset quality and
identify where these losses will be incurred.
In the microfinance sector (particularly for FINGOs and SACCOs), there is less reliance on real
estate – and according to the Insurance Association no insurance of real estate collateral is
required – with the main threat to loan performance coming from the loss of borrowers’ income as a result of the earthquakes. In specific
sectors (such as manufacturing and tourism),
post-earthquake labour shortages are forcing
factories to stay closed and the severe decline of
the tourist market is also reducing the ability of
borrowers to repay and the value of the collateral
underlying the loans, at least in the short term.
Losses Due to the Cost of Recapitalization of
Institutions
Losses incurred by BFIs as a result of the
earthquakes will result in a significant loss of
system-wide capital specifically and are also
likely to be unevenly distributed, with losses
concentrated in smaller institutions which are
either more exposed to the affected areas or
which have the weakest loan administration
practices and thus will see higher levels of
uninsured losses. The deposit guarantee fund
only contains sufficient resources to cover the
liquidation of two small BFIs, and thus the
government will have to step in to either cover
the guaranteed deposits or, in the case of any
larger BFIs, recapitalize the institution.
Cost of Interest Rate Subsidy Programmes
The NRB has announced subsidized interest
rate refinancing programs (zero interest refinancing by NRB of loans to be lent on by banks
at 2 percent interest per annum) for rebuilding
houses. Providing this refinancing at zero interest rate entails a subsidy. However, given the
unattractiveness of the terms offered, uptake
of this programme is envisaged only if BFIs are
adequately incentivized with an interest subsidy
over the tenure of the loan.
132
Insurance Sector Losses
For the insurance sector the impact of losses is
largely mitigated by the fact that around 80 percent of the liability is covered under reinsurance
treaties. While the sector as a whole is thinly
capitalized, the number of claims is low given the
scale of the disaster (estimated by the Insurance
Association at 15,000 potential claims, of which
13,000 have already been claimed), representing a maximum of NPR 16 billion of covered
losses. The Insurance Association estimates that
its total losses (i.e., net of reinsurance provided
by foreign reinsurers) will not be more than NPR
3.2 billion, but the distribution of losses between
the 16 insurance companies may be uneven, particularly if reinsurers find a basis to deny claims.
Diagnostics are needed to determine if this is in
fact the total amount of un-reinsured losses and
the distribution of losses between insurance companies (which would determine if any company
faces solvency problems).
An important question is whether insurance
companies have the financial capacity to honour their commitments to reimburse claimants
(net of reinsured commitments). In an adverse
scenario where the amount of claims will exceed
the financial capacities of insurance companies,
the banking sector would be exposed in order to
absorb this loss of collateral. These losses could
significantly affect banks’ capital, and would put
additional pressure on their balance sheets.
Microfinance and Cooperatives
Portfolio NPL/PAR
Portfolios of MFIs will most probably be the
most damaged among the financial institutions as low income families in rural areas in
the affected districts lost their lives and livelihoods. The level of NPLs will increase steeply
and the PAR will reach unacceptable levels for future sustainability of already fragile
balance sheets/operations.
Lack of Diversified Source of Funds
Microfinance Development Banks (MFDBs)
and FINGOs receive credit mostly through
mandatory deprived sector lending requirements established for banks by the central bank,
and as such lack diversified sources of funds. As
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
of mid-March 2015, the banks had an exposure
to the microfinance sector of NPR 34.5 billion
under deprived sector lending. MFIs receive 60
percent of their funds through such lending. If
funds are reduced or no longer available due to
the liquidity crisis in the financial sector, MFIs
will suffer. For MFDBs, borrowing is the most
critical component of financing. It covers about
70 percent of total resource mobilization. Members’ savings comes next, followed by equity. If
the recovery process for MFIs is slow and not
supported, the crisis might further impact the
banking sector given their exposure (of around
4.5 percent) to the microfinance sector.
Clients Withdrawing their Savings
Though in the balance sheets of MFIs savings are
not the most important source of funding, some
of them rely heavily on it. People are withdrawing their savings to cope with the disaster and
they will continue withdrawing. This increases
the risk of the liquidity crisis. In particular, the
cooperative system could be adversely affected.
Many borrowers have seen their income streams
disrupted due to the earthquakes, and many
will require a loan to rebuild their livelihoods.
However, the lack of a stable source of income
may be grounds for credit providers not to extend loans. As a consequence, such borrowers
face a Catch-22 situation. With their income
stream disrupted due to the earthquakes, they
need loans to recover livelihoods, but are denied
the loan precisely because they have no income
stream. Borrowers that do not have spare, unencumbered real estate that can be pledged to take
out a new loan and whose source of income has
dried up as a consequence of the earthquakes are
particularly vulnerable. This is, for instance, the
case for MSMEs that have pledged their only
property (which often serves as their place of
business) as collateral for a loan.
Contagion of BFIs by Losses in the
Microfinance Sector
Deprived sector lending by BFIs to MFIs (4.5
percent of total loans) will result in substantial
losses for Class A, B and C banks, which have
lent to MFIs within the affected areas. The contagion could spread from an expected high rate
of default to MFIs by borrowers who have lost
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
their livelihoods; the MFIs will then be unable
to repay the loans they have received from BFIs.
Capital Markets
Other than the loss of fees to Securities Board
of Nepal (SEBON), Nepal Stock Exchange
(NEPSE) and brokerage houses from no trading for nearly a month, NEPSE has experienced
limited impact since it began operations after the
earthquake. Two weeks after trading resumed on
NEPSE, market capitalization was reaching preearthquake levels. Immediately before the first
earthquake, market capitalization stood at NPR
963.53 million. As of 3 June 2015, market capitalization was NPR 951.18 million. The market
remains bullish and Nepal Stock Broker’s Association is confident the market will reach preearthquake levels in the coming weeks.
Remittance Networks
There remain challenges in the availability of
connectivity (telecommunications), transportation and cash (as unsafe buildings enhance the
risk of holding significant amounts of cash).
While some remittance agents have begun operations, several are still non-operational and may
relocate or cease operations altogether.
Infrastructure damage has also disrupted remittance networks. Roads and telecommunications
connectivity are basic infrastructure required by
an agent to operate. With many roads damaged,
optic fibre connectivity down in parts of affected
districts and telecom data services intermittent,
reestablishing remittance agents and networks
will be challenging.
Recovery and
Reconstruction Strategy
Based on the build back better (BBB) principle, the recovery and reconstruction strategy
will be a three-pronged approach: (i) financial
sector stability, (ii) access to finance, and
(iii) economic recovery.
Financial Sector Stability
Diagnostic of the Impact of Damage to
Real Estate in Affected Areas on BFIs and
Insurance Companies
Diagnostics are needed to allow accurate assessment of the impact of the earthquakes on the
133
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
solvency of BFIs and insurance companies and
will facilitate the design of recapitalization and
restructuring programmes for the sector.
Diagnostic of the Financial Condition of
MFIs, FINGOs and SACCOs in Affected Areas
Diagnostics are needed to: (i) get an accurate
assessment of the recapitalization and liquidity
needs of the non-bank financial sector in the
affected areas to allow the resumption of credit
flows to poor and rural communities; and (ii) to
assess the impact of losses from deprived sector
lending on BFIs.
Loan Restructuring
As a consequence of the earthquakes, there may
be broader impacts economy-wide. If economic
activities slow down, it will affect many borrowers’ ability to service their debt. Previously
creditworthy borrowers may need to have their
existing loans restructured to allow them to
revive their livelihoods.
Recapitalization Fund
This fund would provide financial resources to
help recapitalize BFIs and non-bank financial
institutions in affected areas, based on the results of the diagnostics. The need for the fund
reflects: (i) the need to prevent de-leveraging by
the financial system as a result of reduced solvency and the inability of BFIs to provide deprived
sector loans to insolvent MFIs and FINGOs,
and (ii) the low balance of the deposit guarantee fund and the fact that deposits in non-bank
financial institutions are not guaranteed, exposing small depositors to heavy losses if the institutions are not restored to solvency.
Capital increase for the Deposit and Credit
Guarantee Fund
The Deposit and Credit Guarantee
Fund(DCGF) presently has less than NPR 2
billion with which to insure about NPR 300
billion of deposits, well below the recommended level of NPR 15 billion (5 percent of
insured). While the government has been contributing NPR 500 million of additional capital
each year, the capital of the fund needs to be increased rapidly to increase depositor confidence
and allow insolvent banks to be liquidated rather than recapitalized by the government.
134
Access to Finance
Special Cash Transfer Account Scheme
The financial system can play a key role in channelling support to earthquake victims through
a special cash transfer account scheme, using
banks that meet certain eligibility criteria. Contrary to traditional bank accounts, such cash
transfer accounts do not serve transactional
or savings purposes. It is merely a scheme for
the government to transfer funds to victims. It
therefore represents minimal risk of abuse. The
scheme would, amongst others, require establishing sound eligibility criteria for participating banks and a robust enrollment process. It
would also require a simplification of Know
Your Customer (KYC) and Customer Due Diligence (CDD) norms. As a matter of urgency,
this requires technical assistance aimed at establishing the KYC/CDD tier thresholds; issuing
an amendment to the current regulations and
issuance of a guidance circular to the financial
sector; and developing the full technical and
operational framework for account opening and
payment processes.
MFI Liquidity Facility
This facility would provide concessional loans to
MFIs in affected areas to quickly restore their
liquidity and respond to the increased demand
for credit from FINGOs and SACCOs to finance reconstruction and recovery.
Technical Assistance to MFIs
Given the extent of damages caused by the earthquakes in the MFI sector, the sector would require a range of technical assistance for two reasons: (i) to ensure that the MFI sector, which has
greater outreach in rural parts of Nepal but is also
vulnerable to shocks, is back on track providing
basic financial services to people in the lowest
income groups, and (ii) to make sure that rural
livelihoods that have been impacted by the earthquakes are restored quickly thereby ensuring that
households do not slip back into poverty.
The recovery technical assistance is warranted for:
Rebuilding Livelihoods in Affected
Communities
Compared to other larger financial institutions,
MFIs have better outreach, community-based
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
linkages, long and trusted presence in the affected rural areas and can be an effective delivery mechanism and channel. There is need for
specific support schemes for rebuilding livelihoods in affected communities, to be channelled through eligible MFIs and cooperatives,
targeted specifically at micro entrepreneurs. In
addition, MFIs could play a supplementary
role as delivery channels with outreach in the
affected rural communities to support house
reconstruction and repair.
Rebuilding Infrastructural Assets, Recovering
Data and Enhancing MIS/IT Structure
MFIs need technical assistance to rebuild physical infrastructure and recover data (in the short
term) and to enhance/introduce MIS systems
(in the long term). Assistance will be required so
that appropriate parameters/conditions are set
(e.g., assessment of physical damage, management structure, basic business plan). In the long
term, financial support and technical assistance
are needed to enhance/introduce IT infrastructure and MIS systems to instill best practices
and to equip MFIs for post-emergency action
and sustainability.
Capacity-building at Sectoral and
Institutional Level
Strengthening the sector and providing support
in the areas identified as major constraints before the earthquakes is imperative to enhance
resilience and equip the sector in the long
term. Tremendous capacity building of the sector will be required to cope with the changed
circumstances after the earthquakes. Similarly,
regulatory support will also be required to make
short-term regulatory adjustments to provide
flexibility to enable MFIs to be back in business,
and medium- to long-term regulatory changes
to enhance resilience of the sector. In order to
support recovery of the microfinance sector, a
programme to identify key areas such as risk
management, loan recovery, and loan origination and approval processes will be required.
Technical assistance will accordingly need to
be provided for targeted MFIs and FINGOs to
guide them to instill best practices based on the
country context, and to equip them for postemergency action. In addition, a programme
will also be required to develop, test and pro-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
mote micro-risk management products post calamity, such as insurance and pension. Technical
assistance to develop and launch household level
micro-risk management products would also be
helpful. These activities will have to be complemented by financial awareness raising and customer protection programmes to ensure that
these complex products are offered responsibly
and in a transparent manner.
Insurance Product Development and
Education Technical Assistance
The earthquakes have highlighted the lack of
insurance to provide protection from the devastating impacts of natural disasters for the vast
majority of people – only about 15,000 of the
500,000 homes damaged by the earthquake are
insured, and most of those insured are under-insured (meaning insurance will cover only debt,
not the cost of rebuilding). Technical assistance
is needed to support the development of insurance products which provide protection from
natural disasters and to provide financial education to promote their use.
Recapitalization Fund for MFIs,
FINGOs and SACCOs
This fund would provide financial resources
with which to recapitalize non-bank financial
institutions in affected areas, based on the results of the diagnostics. The need for the fund
reflects the inability of BFIs to provide deprived
sector loans to MFIs and FINGOs while they
are insolvent (cutting them off from 70 percent
of their funding) and the fact that deposits in
non-bank financial institutions are not guaranteed, exposing poor and rural depositors to
heavy losses if the institutions are not restored
to solvency.
Effective Regulation and Supervision
of SACCOs
There are thousands of SACCOs operating in
the country; most of them are registered with the
government through the Department of Cooperatives. Unlike banks and other financial institutions, including licensed MFDBs and FINGOs,
SACCOs not licensed by NRB are not regulated
or supervised by NRB. However, the outreach of
these SACCOs is widespread and they have been
providing financial services to a large number of
135
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
members across Nepal. Given the volume of financial services business being managed by SACCOs, there is need for a strong regulator and a
major upgrade of the regulatory and supervisory
regime, with a view to raising safety and soundness in the sector to the direct benefit of its users. Regulating SACCOs on the one hand will
ensure the financial services they are carrying out
are fully accounted for in the overall financial sector portfolio and national payment transmission
mechanism. On the other hand, it will ensure
a level playing field for similar smaller financial
institutions, including the licensed MFDBs and
FINGOs that are currently subject to NRB regulation and supervision.
Economic Recovery and Finance
Refinancing Facility Funding to Support Recovery of Households
This facility would provide concessional refinancing for on-lending by BFIs to allow for the
136
funding of repair/reconstruction of damaged
homes. Funds would be provided through an
NRB refinancing window at a concessional rate.
The financing would be provided at a concessional rate for 10 years for housing reconstruction to rebuild destroyed uninsured homes.
Insurance
Capacity-building to Expand Coverage
Building capacity to streamline and accelerate
the claims settlement process can send positive
signals to expand insurance coverage.
Enhancing Legal and Regulatory Framework
There is also need to strengthen insurance
regulation and supervision to ensure
effective enforcement.
Implementation Strategy
for Recovery
The government will continue to carry out
reform measures designed to assess and then
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
mitigate risks to the financial sector, which have
been amplified by the impact of the earthquakes.
These include strengthening the financial crisis
management architecture, establishment of disaster recovery centres by NRB and BFIs, and
expanded diagnostic work to assess the impact
of the earthquakes on banks and insurance company solvency.
The recovery strategy will encompass:
• Physically reconstructing NRB with builtto-purpose facilities, establishing a disaster
recovery centre, re-equipping staff, and
providing adequate information systems to
support supervision.
• Financial support provided by development
partners for reforms. This will provide support for putting in place a legal framework for
financial crisis management, strengthening
risk-based supervision of BFIs, reforms to the
legal and regulatory frameworks for insurance
companies and SACCOs, further steps to
strengthen the payments system, and in-depth
diagnostics of insurance companies and SACCOs. These actions will also be supported
by capacity building grants from DFID and
FIRST Initiative of the World Bank.
• The use of carefully designed regulatory forbearance to allow BFIs to restructure the
debts of viable borrowers. This could include, among others, deferring of loan loss
provisioning requirement by one notch on
the incremental NPA. However, the BFIs
should disclose such ‘gains’ and dividend
payout should be restricted to the extent of
forbearance exercised.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
• Providing concessionary financing and expanded use of credit lines to facilitate the restructuring of viable corporates and SMES,
and to support housing reconstruction. The
emergency facilities established by NRB will
be complemented by on-budget facilities and
the distribution channels will be designed to
ensure transparency and accountability.
• It may be important to impose a moratorium
on the increase in lending rates by BFIs at
pre-earthquake levels for at least a quarter.
• Allow full deduction of financial contributions made by all incorporated BFIs to the
Prime Minister’s Relief Fund.
• Investments in financial education/awareness and new product design to encourage
and enable the more widespread use of insurance as a disaster mitigation mechanism,
especially by poor and rural communities.
• Establish a Bailout Fund for concessions and
recapitalization with appropriate mechanism
in consultation with relevant stakeholders
and development partners.
Assessment Methodology
This financial sector needs assessment is based
on a wide range of inputs and data from diverse sources. The assessment was led by NRB
in collaboration with the World Bank, ADB,
UNCDF, ILO, USAID, IOM and DFID. However, it will take time for the full impact of the
earthquakes to become apparent. The team also
carried out a field visit to Nuwakot and met affected BFIs and MFIs; consulted various associations of BFIs, MFIs and insurance sector; the
Department of Cooperatives; and the Insurance
Board; and used expert opinions and secondary
data where possible.
137
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
138
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
INFRASTRUCTURE
SECTORS
Electricity
Communications
Community Infrastructure
Transport
Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene
139
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
140
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
11. Electricity
Summary
The PDNA pertaining to the electricity sector
covers generation, transmission and distribution facilities in on-grid and off-grid system.
It covers the generation, transmission and distribution systems owned by the public utility
company Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA)
and the hydropower generation facilities owned
by Independent Power Producers (IPPs). The
distribution system above also includes community-managed and operated rural electrification
entities. It also covers community-based micro
hydropower projects (MHP), solar home systems (SHS), small solar home systems (SSHS)
and institutional solar PV systems (ISPS) owned
by local communities and individual households
and promoted by Alternative Energy Promotion
Centre (AEPC). The assessment covers the entire country, with a focus on the 14 districts that
have been severely affected by the earthquake.
The PDNA was carried out based on the data
collected and verified by NEA as well as representatives of the Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (PGCIL), Independent Power Producers
Association, Nepal ([PPAN] for on-grid facilities) and AEPC (for off-grid facilities) under the
leadership of the Ministry of Energy (MoE) and
Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment (MoEST). The World Bank, as the leading
agency for PDNA for the electricity sector, has
provided support to MoE and MoEST in data
processing, damage assessment and preparation
of the recovery and reconstruction strategy and
plan with the active participation of and contributions from Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Asian Development Bank
(ADB), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the Norwegian Embassy.
Electricity generation facilities, both on-grid and
off-grid, and distribution networks were damaged in a big way. For generation under operation, about 115 MW hydropower facilities out
of the 787 MW total installed capacity in the
country (grid and off-grid) were severely dam-
aged, and 60 MW were partially damaged. For
generation under construction, about 1,000
MW of hydropower projects owned both by IPPs
and NEA have been partially damaged. Regarding the transmission system under operation,
seven substations were damaged. The boundary
wall of eight substations, cracks in control room
buildings of nine substations, and damage to
staff quarters and office buildings at 14 locations
were observed. Damages were also noticed in five
transmission lines. Despite this, all the affected
transmission substations were restored within a
short period of time with the assistance of PGCIL
officials. At the time of assessment all 42 substations and 57 transmission lines were in operation.
However confirmation about the risks of tower
foundation damage, vulnerability of towers due
to landslide/soil erosion and structural damage
would be confirmed only after a walk-through
check for all towers in the transmission line in the
earthquake-affected areas.
Regarding distribution, about 800 km of distribution lines at different voltage levels (33
kV, 11 kV and 400 V) and 365 transformers at
different capacity (from 15 to 300 kVA) were
damaged and non-operational. As for off-grid
electricity services, about 262 MHP facilities
and 115,438 SHS or small SHS, and 156 ISPS
were damaged and non-operational.
The total costs of physical damage are about
NPR 17,807 million, including NPR 5,575
million in the public sector and NPR 12,231
million in the private sector. For out-of-service
operational facilities, during the estimated duration of recovery and reconstruction period, the
loss of revenues amounts to NPR 3,338 million
for IPPs in power sales revenues and about NPR
97 million for the government in royalty payments by NEA and IPPs, and no loss of revenue
for NEA since cost of purchase of electricity is
higher than retail tariff. The cost of recovery
and building back better is estimated to be
NPR 18,586, with NPR 5,693 million and
NPR 12,893 for public and private assets.
141
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
About 603,000 households have lost access to
electricity, including 91,200 households for
grid electricity and the rest for off-grid electricity, either due to house collapse or damage to
electricity supply facilities. Assuming that new
houses will be built on time, it will take12 to 24
months for electricity services to be restored to
the affected households.
Pre-Disaster Context and
Baseline
Access to Electricity Services
According to the national census published in
2013, about 75 percent of the total population
in Nepal (27.5 million) is estimated to have connections to grid (about 50 percent) and off-grid
(about 25 percent) electricity. Although off-grid
connections provide relatively reliable electricity
supply in the rural areas, access to the grid in
rural and urban areas does not necessarily mean
access to electricity due to continuing load shedding, up to 14 hours per day, in grid-covered
areas in the dry season. Lack of access to reliable
grid-supplied electricity is one of the key obstacles to lifting sections below the poverty line out
of poverty. While Nepal has achieved remarkable progress in off-grid electrification, coordination with grid extension needs to be enhanced
through planning future rural electrification to
avoid stranded off-grid assets when the grid is
extended to the off-grid areas.
Electricity service in Nepal is provided mostly
through the grid system and in some part through
isolated instances of the off-grid system. The grid
system consists of vertically integrated generation,
transmission and distribution systems. NEA, a fully government owned power utility, is responsible
for the operation and management of the grid. The
Table 11.1: On-grid Generation Capacity of Nepal
Source of generation
Total hydro (NEA)
Total small hydro isolated (NEA)
477.9
4.5
Total hydro, in grid system (NEA)
473.4
Total hydro (IPP)
255.7
Total hydro (Nepal)
729.0
Total thermal (NEA)
53.4
Total installed capacity in Nepal
142
Installed capacity
(MW)
782.4
generation assets are owned by NEA as well as private power companies,whereas transmission and
distribution assets are fully owned and managed
by NEA. A brief description of generation, transmission and distribution system is described below.
On-grid Generation
The total existing installed generation capacity in
the pre-disaster period was reported to be 787 MW
of which 782.5 MW is on grid. Of the total grid
capacity 729.1 MW is provided from hydropower
plants, whereas 53.4 MW consists of thermal generation. IPPs own 255.6 MW of generation capacity
and the rest (473.4MW) is owned by NEA. Table
11.1 gives a summary of generation capacity.
Transmission Network
The existing transmission system consists of 66
kV and 132 kV transmission lines and associated grid substation, as well as a Load Dispatch
Centre. NEA has a transmission system with
42 substations (28 at 132 kV level and 14 at 66
kV level) with a total transformation capacity of
2,159.6 MVA (1722 MVA at 132 kV and 438
MVA at 66 kV). There are a total of 57 lines in
the transmission segment of which 36 lines are
at 132 kV level and 21 lines at 66 kV level. It is
reported that there are 2,129.7 circuit km of 132
kV transmission lines and 511.16 circuit km of
66 kV transmission line. The route length of the
transmission line is 1,948 km with 6,093 towers.
Distribution
Electricity services to the end-consumer are provided through a distribution system of 33 kV, 11
kV and 400 V distribution lines and associated
distribution substations. NEA provides electricity services to more than 2.7 million consumers
through its 90 distribution centres spread across
the country. The total number of consumers in
the 14 earthquake-affected districts accounts
for 23 percent of total NEA customers, whereas
these affected districts contribute 72 percent of
the total sales and 73 percent of sales revenues
of NEA. The baseline information of physical
Infrastructure is provided in Table 11.2.
Off-grid Electricity Services
As of July 2013, there were 1152 communityowned MHPs with a total installed capacity
of 22,830 kW. Similarly, about 600,000 (July
2014) SHS/SSHS with a total capacity of about
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
10 MW have been installed by individual households for lighting purposes.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 11.2: Distribution System Baseline Information
S.N.
Description
33 kV
Post-Disaster Context
1
33 kV distribution line (km)
3,823
2
11 kV distribution line (km)
32,393
Damages to Infrastructure
and Assets
3
400 V distribution line (km)
87,318
4
33/11 kV distribution transformer-set
800
5
11/0.4 kV distribution transformer-set
21,877
6
33/11 kV substation(Nos.)
100
7
Installed capacity of 33/11 kV S/S (MVA)
843
8
Installed capacity of distribution transformers (MVA)
9
Meters-set
3,172,424
10
Distribution poles-(Nos.)
2,347,146
The April 2015 earthquake significantly damaged hydropower plants, the transmission system (substation and lines) and distribution lines.
The damage to complete transmission lines and
grid substations are being assessed by means of a
walk-through survey.
Existing Hydropower Plants
Three NEA-owned power plants (48 MW) and
15 IPP-owned power plants (123 MW) were
damaged, resulting in an outage of 171 MW (see
Table 11.3 for a list of power plants affected by the
earthquake). Other hydropower plants are still in
operation, their damage status being unavailable.
The magnitude of damage to the power plants of
NEA and IPP would be known only after a detailed assessment of damaged power plants, this
being a preliminary assessment of physical damage at the time of the assessment.
It is reported that in the Kulekhani storage hydropower plant (92 MW), a deep crack has developed in the dam, going 0.8 m deep to the
clay-core. Cracks are observed in the shaft bearing block as well. Cracks have also been observed
in the power house of Upper Marsyangdi hydropower plant (75 MW). In Kaligandaki A hydropower plant (144 MW), cracks have developed
in the left bank of the reservoir which was damaged by heavy rain two years back. Similarly, the
waterway of cascade plants Trishuli (24 MW)
and Devighat (14.1) have reported damage.
However, all the power plants of NEA are currently in operation except for Sunkoshi (10
MW); its infrastructure is said to be seriously
damaged. Although there seems no visible damage to other hydropower plants, a thorough assessment is needed for confirmation.
Out of 15 IPP power plants, Chilime hydropower plant, under a NEA subsidiary company, is
already in operation. Other power plants require
major reconstruction work for a period ranging
from four months to 12 months. Their head
works, waterways, substations, transmission lines,
2030
power houses, office buildings and staff quarters,
have suffered extensive damage. Table 11.3 lists
the hydropower plants affected by the disaster.
Hydropower Plants under Construction
There are reports of damage to hydropower projects under construction that are owned by NEA
and IPP. The construction work in major hydropower projects such asUpperTrishuli 3A (60MW,
and the only one being developed by NEA), UpperTamakoshi (456 MW), Rasuwagadhi (111
MW), Madhya Bhotekoshi (102 MW), Sanjen
(45 MW) and Upper Sanjen(14 MW) and UT1
(216 MW) was stopped in the wake of the earthquake and subsequent landslides. The details of
damage are yet to be assessed. Similarly, other
small IPP projects under construction (Upper
Chaku, 22 MW; Lower Modi, 20MW; and Lower Khare, 11MW), totalling 43 MW capacity, are
also reported to be severely damaged.
The NEA, Government of Nepal, has requested
the Government of Japan to assess the damage
to the Kulekhani storage hydropower plant
since it was designed and its construction was
supervised by a Japanese consulting firm. GoN
has also requested the German government
through KfW to assess the damage to the Middle
Marsyangdi hydropowerplant (70 MW), Lower
Marsyangdi hydro power plant (69 MW),
Kaligandaki A hydropower plant (144 MW) and
the Load Dispatch Centre. Since the assessment
reported no major problem, it was not deemed
necessary to these plants from operating. GoN
has not yet decided on the policy of providing
relief to the affected private hydropower plants
under construction.
143
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 11.3: Affected Hydropower Plants (in Operation)
Hydropower plant
Installed capacity (MW)
District
Trishuli
24.0
Nuwakot
Devighat
14.1
Nuwakot
Sunkoshi
10.0
Sindhupalchowk
Sub-Total:
48.1
NEA-Owned
Private power producer
Chilime
22.0
Rasuwa
Bhotekoshi
45.0
Sindhupalchowk
Baramchi
4.2
Sindhupalchowk
SipringKhola
10.0
Dolakha
BhairavKunda
3.0
Sindhupalchowk
Chaku
3.0
Sindhupalchowk
MadheChaku
1.8
Sindhupalchowk
Lower Chaku
1.8
Sindhupalchowk
Sunkoshi
2.6
Sindhupalchowk
AnkhuKhola
8.4
Dhading
MailungKhola
5.0
Rasuwa
RadhiKhola
4.4
Lamjung
Jiri
2.2
Dolakha
TadiKhola
5.0
Nuwakot
SiuriKhola
5.0
Lamjung
Sub-total:
123.4
Total affected:
171.5
Transmission System
The list of substations where equipment damage was reported is presented in Table11. 4. The
damage noticed in transmission lines passing
through the most-affected areasis summarized
in Table 11.5. Further, Table 11.6 lists substations where the boundary wall was damaged and
cracks appeared in the buildings. A partial damage in the Load Dispatch Centre was reported
and load management in the system was being
carried out through a back-up system.
The substations were out of service for some
time either due to loss of power or some problem in the substations due to equipment damage. As reported, all substations were restored
in a few days with the help of officials from
PGCIL, and material as well as machineries received from India.
144
In most of the substations, transformers with
rollers were placed on rail. Due to the high
intensity of shaking during the earthquake,
the transformers moved along the rail from
their position as there was no locking arrangement to keep them at a fixed position or they
got off of the rails. As a result, the accessories
of transformers were affected. The main tanks
of transformers were not damaged. Some of the
transformers started leaking heavily through
various joints during the earthquake and the oil
drained out from them. Around 20,500 litres of
oil have been refilled in these transformers after rectification of the cause of leakage by NEA
helped by a PGCIL team, following which most
of the transformers were put into service except
one transformer at Teku substation and another
one at Lainchaur substation. One transformer,
received from India, is under installation at the
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Teku substation. Action has already been taken
for procurement of the damaged equipment required for restoration of the transformer at the
Lainchaur substation.
Similarly, one transformer at the Lamosangu
substation which is in service, jumped off the
rails and had to be put back at the earliest possible opportunity to prevent damage to the
foundation with every aftershock. Substation
bay equipment that also got damaged was replaced either from inventory, materials received
from India or after cannibalizing from bays already installed in new transmission system or
bay charged bypassing the equipment due to
non-availability of the same in inventory. Cracks
developed in the control room building wall,
column as well as in the beams in some substations. Some of the damaged walls of control
room building are load bearing walls. Cracks
also developed in the control room floor and
foundation settlement also observed but none
of the control room buildings collapsed. The
boundary walls of eight substations were damaged or collapsed.
It may be noted that a majority of transmission
lines pass through difficult hilly terrain and deep
forest. During an earthquake there is every possibility of tower foundations getting damaged at
some location, or of stress developing on them
due to disproportionate shifting of their base
as a result of movement of earth. This might
weaken the tower structure. The route length
of transmission lines for 6,093 towers is 1,948
km.The actual quantity of damage to the transmission lines can be assessed only after thorough
checking of all these 6,093 towers along the total route length but this would take considerable
time. A walk-through survey of transmission
lines is in progress and as per preliminary report
received from NEA transmission team on May
31 2015, tower damage reported in 3 no. 132
kV lines and 2 no. 66 kV lines. The Foundation
was damaged in around 20 locations. Protection walls need to be erected due to soil erosion.
However all transmission lines are in service as it
was prior to earthquake.
Distribution
It is reported that four major substations in
Kathmandu Valley and one substation outside
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 11.4: Substations with Equipment Damage
Name of Substations
Voltage level
1
Balaju
66 kV
2
Lainchour
66 kV
3
Teku
66 kV
4
Panchkhal
66 kV
5
Suichatar
66 kV
6
New Chabahil
7
Lamosangu
66 kV
132 kV
Table 11.5: Damage to Transmission Lines (Preliminary Survey)
Name of transmission lines
1
Khimti-Lamusanghu transmission line
132 kV
2
Lamusangu-Bhaktapur line
132 kV
3
Suichatar-Marsyangdi line
132 kV
4
Chilime-Trihuli transmission line
66 kV
5
Devighat-New chabel
66 kV
the valley were damaged. However, supply to
the consumer is being restored. Distribution
networks were significantly damaged in the 14
districts including three districts of Kathmandu.
As per preliminary estimates of the director,
NEA Distribution and Consumer Services, the
total damage to distribution networks is shown
in Table 11.7.
With the help of PGCIL, NEA managed to
fix the four affected substations in Kathmandu
and electricity supply was restored within four
days. At this stage the Government of India is
supporting NEA/MoE by providing poles and
distribution transformers. Untill now about 37100 percent electricity supply has been resumed
in all the 14 badly-affected districts.
Off-grid Micro-hydro Plants
It was reported that 262 MHPs with 3.7 MW installed capacity and 115,438 SHS and 156 ISPS
are damaged. This has affected more than 81,000
households. A summary of MHP damage in 14
districts is presented in Table 11.8. AEPC is trying to assess the exact nature of damage and to
come up with the cost estimate to repair the damage, including strategy and action plan.
Estimates of Financial Losses Due to
Physical Damage
A technical (engineering) assessment of damage
is a prerequisite for calculating the value of loss
145
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
from physical damage in power plants under
operation as well as those that are under construction. Since such an engineering assessment
is yet to be done, the estimate of financial losses
of physical damage in on-grid generation, transmission and distribution systems and associated
civil structures, and off-grid electricity services
are indicative and preliminary in nature. Based
on the preliminary information of physical
damage provided by NEA, IPPAN and AEPC,
the estimated financial loss resulting from damage to physical infrastructure in generation is
given in Table 11.9. In the absence of a detailed
assessment of damage to hydropower plants and
transmission line, a provisional figure of NPR
2,000 million as a contingency sum is used. One
of the objectives of the PDNA is to ascertain
the reconstruction requirement and its associated cost to identify the resource implication.
This contingency amount is also reflected in the
reconstruction cost for building back better in
this sector, which gives rise to a figure of NPR
17,807 million for physical damage to assets, inclusive of NPR 2,000 million as a contingency
sum. A summary of details of resource implications for reconstruction is given in Table7.
The estimation of change in economic flows
(CEF) or losses is carried out to assess the impact
of the disaster in the sector. It is ascertained by
estimating the loss to three sub sectors: namely
public sector entities such as NEA, private companies such as IPP, and the government.The
change in loss of net revenues is taken as the ba-
sis for calculating the CEF.
NEA Revenue Losses: The NEA system is vertically integrated and sales revenuesare realized
in the distribution subsector. Therefore, financial losses of this system are accounted for in the
distribution system. However, NEA is better off
in terms of net revenues as a result of reduction
in sales due to IPPs’ power plant outages. The
reason behind this is that the cost of service
from IPP purchase is higher in comparison to
sales revenues from the same (mismatch of cost
of service versus retail tariff). As a result, energy
unavailable for sale from IPP resulted in a reduction in power purchase expenses, leading to
a positive impact in the net revenues of NEA.
Hence, net change in revenue of NEA is not
considered for total change in change in economic flows or losses.
IPP Revenue Losses: Loss of generation is calculated on the basis of the outage period, from
the date of interruption of supply due to earthquake to the date of resumption of supply by the
plant. In general,a six month outage is assumed
for all affected power plants. However, in case
of plants such as Bhotekoshi, an assumption
of 12 months of outage is made. The total loss
of sales is calculated on the basis of estimated
time for restoration of generation from existing
power plants and their average monthly energy
sales to NEA. The losses are calculated assuming the associated loss of energy sales during the
outage time of generation multiplied by the PPA
Table 11.7: Damage to Distribution Networks
Works to be carried out
S.No.
Description
Unit
Base line data
Immediate
restoration*
Reconstruction**
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
33 kV transmission line
11 kV distribution line
400 V distribution line
33/0.4 kV distribution transformer
11/0.4 kV distribution transformer
33/11 kV substation
Energy meter (single & three Phase)
Distribution poles
km
km
km
Nos.
Nos
Nos
Nos.
Nos
3,823
32,393
87,318
800
21,877
100
3,172,424
2,347,146
63
210
463
10
565
0
79,519
37,170
191
291
904
0
148
0
64,000
12,500
9
Substation equipment (power transformer, ct, pt, control
& relay panel, battery & charger etc.)
Set
335
0
10
Physical infrastructure (control building, staff quarter,
office building, boundary wall, guard room)
sqm
Nos.
44,789
45
9524
0
*The scope of works includes the construction of healthy line, physical infrastructure and rehabilitation of substations in affected areas where the power supply has been restored temporarily.
**The scope of works includes the construction of line and physical infrastructure for new resettlement. However, the cost is not include in the reconstruction cost as there are uncertainties
about the finalization of the new resettlement
146
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 11.8: List of Damaged Micro-hydro Projects
Severely-affected districts
Number of MH plant
Installed capacity (kW)
Total HH
1
Rasuwa
7
45.0
478
2
Gorkha
35
604.5
6,198
3
Nuwakot
7
23.0
240
4
Dhading
40
582.0
5,267
5
Sindhupalchowk
14
123.0
948
6
Dolakha
27
431.0
4,553
7
Ramechhap
Subtotal:
16
170.0
1,888
146
1978.5
19,572
Disaster hit districts
8
Kavrepalanchowk
42
615.5
5,847
9
Sindhuli
22
166.5
1,887
10
Okhaldhunga
47
912.5
9,347
11
Makawanpur
5
42.2
447
12
Lalitpur
-
-
-
13
Bhaktapur
-
-
-
14
Kathmandu
-
-
-
Subtotal:
116
1736.7
17,528
Total
262
3715.2
37,100
rate. The change in IPP net revenues is estimated as NPR 3,338.0 million. The calculation of
financial loss of CEF in IPP generation is presented in Table 11.10.
GoN Royalty Revenue Loss: Royalty is applicable in capacity and energy generation from
power plants and is the source of government
revenue from the electricity sector. Change in
royalty from the affected projects is estimated to
be at around NPR 97 million. A summary of
this calculation is presented in Table 11.11.
Estimates of Damages and Losses: The total
loss of revenues is the sum of revenue losses of
IPPs and loss of GoN revenues through royalty.
This calculation is presented in Table 11.12.
Disaster Effects and Impacts
Major impacts: About 600,000 households were
directly affected by the earthquake in the form of
loss of electricity services. This impact was either
through damage to electricity facilities, on-grid
and off-grid, or due to house collapse. Loss of access to electricity has a direct bearing on people’s
ability to derive their livelihoods and generate
income, particularly so for rural communities
engaged in small- and medium-scale enterprises.
Loss of power has also had a negative impact on
women who use electricity for household work and
productive activities. Women interviewed in Kavre
indicated that their burden of work has increased
now that they are compelled to allocate as much as
three hours to fetch firewood in the absence of electricity. Furthermore, lighting works as a deterrent to
violence, and in the absence of a steady power supply, women may face an added risk of violence.
The disruption in the power supply will further
pose challenges to the government’s avowed goal of
universal access to modern energy services by 2030
in Nepal. It should be noted that the decrease in
electricity supply is due to the loss of generation
from hydropower plants. As import from India is
limited to available transmission capacity and limited thermal plants, NEA has resorted to increasing
load-shedding hours for consumers. Consequently, there has been an increase in electricity generation from captive diesel generator (DG) sets. The
total loss of generation from damaged hydropower
plants and corresponding increase in generation
from DG sets would be about 428 GWh. The
typical cost of generation from DG sets is about
147
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 11.9: Damages in the Electricity Sector (NPR million)
Sector
SubSector
Cost of damage
Remarks
Hydropower: Severely damaged
200.0
not in operation
Partially damaged
800.0
in operation
Under construction
400.0
Public-NEA
Generation
Total generation
Transmission
Private
1,829.0
Total public
3,062
Generation
Partially damage
1,497.0
7,826.0
11,402.0
MHP
747.0
Solar home system and ISPS
3,658.0
Total off-grid
4,405.0
2,000.0
Grand total electricity
17,807.0
Generation
Hydropower: Severely damaged
200.0
Not in operation
Partially damaged
800.0
In operation
Under construction
400.0
Total generation
Transmission
1,400.0
347.0
Distribution
1,829.0
Total public
3,576.0
Generation
Hydropower: Severely damaged
Partially damaged
2,294.0
Not in operation
85.0
In operation
Under construction
3,950.0
Distribution (meters)
1,497.0
Total private
Total grid
7,826.0
11,402.0
MHP
747.0
Solar home system and ISPS
3,658.0
Total off-grid
4,405.0
Contingency
Grand total electricity
Note: Basic cost estimates are prepared in US$ and exchange rate 100 NPR to US$ 1 has been used.
148
In operation
3,950.0
Contingency
AEPC
Not in operation
85.0
Distribution (meters)
Total private
Private
2,294.0
Under construction
Total grid
Public-NEA
347.0
Distribution
Hydropower: Severely damage
AEPC
1,400.0
2,000.0
17,807.0
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 11.10: IPP Revenue Loss (NPR million)
Description
Pre-earthquake
Post-earthquake
3,407.0
0.0
Sales revenue
Less royalty to GON
Net revenue
77.0
9.0
3,329.0
(9.0)
Net revenue loss
3,338.0
Table 11.11: GoN Royalty Revenue Loss (NPR million)
Description
Pre earthquake
Post-earthquake
216.0
187.0
Royalty from NEA
Royalty from IPP
Total
77.0
9.0
293.0
196.0
Net revenue loss
97.0
Table 11.12: Summary of Estimates of Damages and Loss of Revenue
Value of damages (NPR million)
Total
Generation
Public
Private
Value of revenue losses(NPR million)
Total
Public
Private
Impact
fiscal
NEA
1,400.0
1,400.0
-
-
IPPs
6,329.0
6,329.0
3,338.0
3,338.0
Local communities
4,405.0
4,405.0
-
Government royalty
97.0
97.0
Transmission
347.0
347.0
NEA
1,315.0
1,315.0
Consumers
1,497.0
1,497.0
NEA
Distribution
Civil structures
514.0
514.0
Contingencies
2,000.0
2,000.0
Total damages
17,807.0
5,575.0
12,232.0
3,435.0
97.0
3,338.0
NEA
30 UScent/kWh including capital and fuel costs.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
The recovery of electricity in grid and off-grid
could be achieved through alternate sources of
electricity supply, most commonly with the import of electricity from India, DG sets, roof-top
solar panels. The following initiatives are suggested for recovery in the short, medium and
long term:
• Short-term measures include a reduction in
load shedding and distribution of solar lanternsto affected households, repair and maintenance of partially damaged power plants,
transmission lines and distribution lines.
• Medium-term measures include the timely
completion of hydropower projects that are in
an advanced stage, and completing the ongoing
cross-border transmission line that will facilitate
additional imports of electricity from India.
• Long-term measures include the construction of new hydropower plants and reconstruction of those that have been damaged.
Reconstruction Initiatives for off-grid Facilities
The reconstruction of off-grid electricity services
will be carried out two phases.
• The first phase would involve an immediate
relief package offering domestic clean cooking
and lighting solution. The focus will be on domestic Remote Electrical Tilt (RET) solutions
that can be supplied to the needy within the
current fiscal year and will be initiated immediately. This package primarily includes SHS with
mobile charging for the household;improved
cooking stove (ICS); and community mobile
149
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
charging station; water purification; immediate solar lighting solutions for health posts and
schools; biogas; rapid assessment of Photo Voltaic Pump Set (PVPS) and micro-hydro projects; income generation activities; and activities
for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises
(MSME) activities. This relief package will be
implemented up to December 2015.
• The second phase involves reconstruction,
rehabilitation and medium-term relief solutions. The focus will be on delivering solutions
which will include repair, maintenance and
installation of new solar systems for schools;
installation of solar mini/micro grids; repair,
maintenance and installation of new solar
systems for health posts; repair, maintenance
and installation of new biogas systems; repair,
maintenance, re-construction and commercial operation of micro-hydro plants; repair,
maintenance and re-construction of damaged
micro, small and medium enterprises, and revival of income generating activities. This phase
is expected to be completed before December
2016. However, re-construction of microhydro plants may extend up to June 2017.
Policy Gaps in Electricity Sector related to Earthquake Risk and Vulnerability in Nepal
It is a well-established fact that Nepal lies in one
of the most earthquake-vulnerable zones, which
puts its infrastructure at considerable risk. However, to date there is no policy in place to address
the crucial issue of resilience to natural disasters.
In this context, it is imperative to initiate and
adopt the following policies in the electricity sector:
• Formulation and implementation of a policy addressing the issue of dam safety and
security in public and private sector hydropower projects with regard to existing as well as
future projects.
• Standardization of parameters for seismicsafety features in the design of electricity
•
•
•
•
•
•
infrastructure such as dams, waterways,
power stations, substations and transmission
lines, among others.
Design of early warning systems in hydropower projects.
Policy for selection of hydropower projects
in various river basins to reduce the impact
of natural disaster.
Adoption of appropriate insurance policy by
public utilities.
Preparation of guidelines for safety and evacuation of electrical equipment and personnel
in the event of a disaster.
Policy guidelines and procedures for
disaster management in restoration of power
at the earliest.
Policy guideline for asset as well as
inventory management
Implementation Arrangements
Overall Planning
A Master Plan for Rural Electrification, a
Transmission System Master Plan, and an Integrated River Basin Development Planning
that includes a Hydropower Generation Master
Plan, will be initiated soon to ensure a coordinated approach for generation, transmission
and distribution system development and rural
electrification programmes.
On-grid Facilities
NEA and IPPs will be responsible for assessment, planning and implementation of recovery
for their respectively hydropower facilities that
were damaged due to the earthquake. For the
recovery of grid electricity facilities including
generation, transmission and distribution, international standards will be applied and systems
planning will be followed to ensure better quality of facilities, safety and earthquake-resilience
of dams, and improved optimization of distribution system. The recovery process will include
the following steps:
Table 11.13: Value of Physical Damage and Cost of Reconstruction
Damages (million NPR)
S.No
1
Generation
2
Transmission
3
Distribution
4
Civil structures
5
150
Asset category
Contingencies
Total
Reconstruction (million NPR)
Total
Public
Private
Total
Public
Private
12,134.0
1,400.0
10,737.0
12,573.0
1,440.0
11,097.0
347.0
347.0
-
417.0
417.0
-
2,812.0
1,315.0
1,497.0
3,118.0
1,322.0
1,796.0
514.0
514.0
-
514.0
514.0
-
2,000.0
2,000.0
-
2,000.0
2,000.0
-
17,807.0
5,575.0
11,663.0
18,586.0
5,693.0
12,893.0
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
• Generation: Carry out a rapid dam safety
assessment of all major hydropower dams in
the earthquake-affected area to ensure full recovery or increased dam safety and resilience
to future earthquake disasters and to inform
the recovery investment plan accordingly.
• Transmission: To avoid potential risks of interruption due to earthquake effects, NEA will
conduct a walk-through inspection along the
transmission line in earthquake-affected areas
to check foundation stability, structure defects
and landslide risks, and prepare and implement
the investment programme as needed. In the
process of restoration of substation equipment,
available spare parts already consumed, attention should be paid to procuring and maintaining adequate spares to take care of future
contingencies. Emergency restoration systems
(ERS) for transmission lines may be thought
of as a part of disaster management of transmission lines in the event of future disasters so
that transmission lines are restored quickly with
ERS minimizing the loss of revenues.
• Distribution: In accordance with the Distribution Master Plan and international standards for the distribution system, plan new
feeders in close coordination with housing
sector activities to ensure recovery of electricity services in new settlement areas as soon as
new houses are rebuilt.
Off-grid Facilities
AEPC will be responsible for implementation
of the recovery and reconstruction with respect
to off-grid electricity services. Community and
individual households should be encouraged
to play an active role in restoring or rebuilding
the affected schemes. The off-grid initiatives for
recovery and reconstruction will adopt international technical standards for design and installation of specific MHPs and Solar Systems and
follow the Master Plan to ensure optimization of
site and size selection of MHPs and better coordination with the grid extension plan.
Assessment Methodology
This assessment has been conducted in accordance with the guidance provided by the PDNA
Secretariat of the Government of Nepal. It is
primarily dependent on the initial assessment
data provided by the government, which has
been refined and re-categorized in accordance
with PDNA Guidelines through selected field
verifications and intensive discussions with the
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
NEA, MoE, DoED, IPPAN and the PDNA
electricity sector team.
As electricity is supplied through on-grid and
off-grid systems, the damages, losses and needs
have been calculated separately for them. The assessment of damage of physical assets for generation, transmission and distribution in the grid
system was accomplished with the help of information provided by NEA and IPPAN, whereas
information about damaged assets in the offgrid system was provided by AEPC.
The effects of damages to electrical installations
and supplies resulted in financial loss (change in
economic flows [CEF]). The value of financial
losses due to physical damage of electricity infrastructure is estimated in accordance with the
existing cost structure. Financial losses are attributed to decline in demand due to interruption in
supply or loss of sales to electricity customers, loss
of revenue of IPP, and loss of government revenue
in the form of royalties from the electricity sector.
Considering the load-shedding situation prevailing in Nepal, reduction in sales due to loss
of connection is not considered. The reason is
that as a result of loss in demand in earthquakeaffected area, the available energy is being supplied to other areas, hence preventing any reduction in sales. However, outages in power plants
cause a decrease the power supply, which leads
to a reduction in sales. Accordingly, the loss of
revenue is estimated on the basis of an estimated decrease in sales due to the generation lost,
multiplied by the current average revenue rate
of NEA. For this purpose, the loss of sales is calculated from the lost generation after making an
adjustment for a system lost factor of 25.5 percent. In the case of IPP, the change in economic
flows or losses is estimated on the basis of loss
of generation multiplied by sales price of power.
The change in economic flows to government
is established as per the change in government
royalty from this sector.
MHPs are run on the lines of community ownership and management, with no saving from
sales of electricity service. Accordingly, it is assumed that there will be no financial loss in the
off-grid system. Hence, the total financial loss in
the electricity sector is calculated by considering
only the financial effects on the grid system.
151
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
152
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
12. Communications
Summary
The PDNA for the communications sector
covers the strategic public and private
telecommunications networks (both fixed
and mobile), internet service providers, postal
services, print and broadcast media (newsprint,
radio, television) and cable television operators.
It also includes the Ministry of Information and
Communications (MoIC) responsible for the
sectors of information and communications, and
its associated agencies including the Department
of Information, Department of Printing,
Press Council, National News Agency, Film
Development Board, Radio Service Broadcast
Development Committee (Radio Nepal),
and Nepal Television. The MoIC and Nepal
Telecommunications Authority (NTA) have
policy and regulatory oversight of the sector.
The total damages and losses in economic
flows are estimated at NPR 3,610.2 million
(US$36.10 million) and NPR 5084.6 million
(US$50.85 million), respectively. The estimated
cost of recovery and reconstruction is estimated
at NPR 4,938.8 million (US$49.39 million).
The long-term recovery goal for the communications sector is to rebuild and put in place a
future-proof communications infrastructure and
services sector that will serve the needs of a digital
Nepal. In line with this vision, the reconstruction
effort should be anchored in a future-proofed approach, that ensures increased investments in the
telecommunications sector, the establishment of
a resilient public service broadcast sector, and the
convergence of the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector that will allow
Nepal to take advantage of the opportunities provided by technological developments.
In the short term, communications infrastructure in the worst-affected districts will be rehabilitated as quickly as possible using available
57
financial resources, including the existing Rural Telecommunications Development Fund
(RTDF). Broadband wireless internet services
will also be provided in the worst-hit districts
so that affected communities have access. These
initiatives will be led by NTA in close coordination with MoIC and service providers.
Pre-Disaster Context
and Baseline
Prior to the earthquake, Nepal’s communications
sector was characterized by competition and
growth in market size and coverage. In particular,
there was impressive growth in the cellular market, a well-developed community and FM radio
ecosystem, a large number of print and broadcast
media players, and a competitive cable television
market. The postal network extended to every
Village Development Committee (VDC) across
the country. Table 12.1 below provides a summary of the communications sector and market
structure prior to the earthquake.
Nepal’s telecommunications market comprises
two major operators with almost equal market
share, Nepal Telecom and Ncell, and four other
small operators. With mobile services providing
greater mobility, and with close to full population coverage achieved nationwide, mobile
services will continue to dominate the market.
While Nepal’s mobile communications sector is
well developed and all districts and VDCs have
access to mobile services, Nepal’s internet penetration is still less than 40 percent. The chart
below57 indicates growth in access (percentage
of population with access to various services).
Telecommunications is a major source of tax
and royalty revenues for the Government of
Nepal (GoN). As such, overall sector revenues
for 2014 were estimated at NPR 85,900 million
(US$859 million) and GoN received approximately NPR 3,450 million (US$34.5 million)
in royalties. The two major telecommunications
Source: Nepal Telecommunications Authority (July 2014)
153
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
operators are some of the largest taxpayers in
Nepal. One of the largest foreign direct investors
in Nepal has been the telecommunications operator Ncell. Before the earthquake, the telecommunications sector faced a number of policy and
regulatory challenges including:
• a need for revisions in the policy and regulatory framework, given the significant technological developments in the sector;
• lack of an emergency and disaster communications strategy, plan and network infrastructure;
• large unutilized amounts accumulated (approximately NPR 10,000 million) in the
RTDF funds; and
• limited mobile Value Added Services and
Applications designed to serve economic
and social sectors,particularly with respect to
mobile financial services which lacks a clear
regulatory framework for mobile network
operators (MNOs).
Despite potential challenges, ICTs have been
adopted across the public and private sectors
inNepal. ICTs have been extensively used in
the provision of many public and private sector services, among them banking and financial
services, public sector financial management,
agriculture, health, education, social protection, transport, energy, and rural development.
The government has invested in cross-sectoral
ICT infrastructure (government integrated data
centre) and service frameworks (Nepal eGovernment Interoperability Framework (NeGIF)).
The National Identification Management Centre (NIDMC) of MoHA was also in the process of implementing a pilot project to establish
a digital national identification infrastructure
based on biometric data.
Post-Disaster Context
Damages and Losses
The Communications sector was significantly
damagedby the earthquake. The telecommunication networks were affected, as mobile base
transceiver stations (BTS) were damaged, and
power disruptions and lack of fuel supply impacted service provision. All operators reported
damage to some of their sites, including build-
Table 12.1: Communications Sector and Market Structure in Nepal
154
Policy maker
Ministry of Information and Communications (MoIC)
Telecommunications regulator
Nepal Telecommunications Authority (NTA)
Spectrum management
Frequency Management Division (FMD) at the MoIC. Telecommunications spectrum is allocated on
a ‘block’ basis to NTA to manage. Broadcast and other spectrum is managed by FMD. Overall spectrum management policy, including pricing, is decided by the Radio Frequency Policy Determination Committee (RFPDC)– a cross-sectoralcommittee headed by the Minister,MoIC, and comprising
the Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA), Ministry of Defence (MoD) and Ministry of Civil Aviation and
Culture (MoCAC).
Department of Information &
Press Council Nepal
Accredits journalists
Concurs registration of print media operations
Houses print media information
Telecommunications operators and
market share
Nepal Telecom (vertically integrated state-owned operator) - 46%
NCell (mobile operator majority owned by TeliaSonera) - 46%
Smart Telecom Private Limited (Basic telecom operator) - 5%
United Telecom ( WLL operator – majority Indian owned) - 2%
Others (Nepal Satellite, STM, etc.) - 1%
Telecom sector statistics (end-January 2015)
Fixed penetration: 3.12%
Mobile penetration: 87.55%
Others (Limited mobility, satellite): 7.63%
Internet users: 38.78%
Number of television broadcasters
1 state-owned Television broadcaster -- Nepal Television
25 private television broadcasters in operation
Print media
2 government-owned newspapers
7016 privately-owned newspapers; magazines and other weekly publishing houses.
Postal services
Government owned Nepal Post with presence in every VDC and municipality across Nepal.
Multiple private courier service providers
Cable television providers
850 registered private operators, 6 digital cable providers.
Internet service providers
46 licensed private operators; all telecommunication operators also provide internet services.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
To cope with the effects on network coverage
and congestion in the Kathmandu Valley, NTA
made additional frequency available for GSM
operators on request for a one month period.
Ncell utilized its additional spectrum, while
Nepal Telecom did not. Operators provided free
voice, data and SMS services. The services have
been largely restored. In the worst-affected districts, mobile communication services are available, but the quality is being impacted by the
low reliability of power supply and dead spots
in the network. Internet services, too, were disrupted but have been restored. However, erratic
power supply remains a challenge. At the post
offices, damage was limited to physical buildings at 32 locations. Postal services continue
to be provided, albeit with delays due to road
blockages, among others.
As for the broadcast media, both television
and radio broadcasters were affected. The Association of Community Radio Broadcasters
(ACoRAB) reported damage to community
radio equipment and buildings at 60 locations
across 19 affected districts. Approximately 50
FM radio stations were impacted by the earthquakes. Twenty of the 50 FM stations were offair for approximately three days after 25 April.
The state-owned Radio Nepal, which continued
its broadcast for 24 hours for a few days after
the disaster, halted all advertising and focused
on public service announcements. Corporate
clients of FM broadcasters cancelled advertising,
which impacted their financial position.
The buildings and equipment of television
broadcasters were physically damaged. Nepal
Television, the state-owned broadcaster, con-
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Figure 12.1: Communications Market Access
90%
80%
70%
Penetration (% percentage)
ings. This resulted in significant network congestion and downtime in the immediate time frame
of a week. It has been reported that some house
owners, on whose rooftop BTSs were installed,
are hesitant to continue renting space, given
the additional loading factors on their rooftop
premises. While the international gateways,
which enable international communications,
were not affected, network back haul infrastructure (both aerially installed fiber optic cables and
microwave links) were damaged in a number of
areas. The fixed line network in Kathmandu sustained damage as well.
l
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Mobile
19.73%
27.27%
40.59%
57.60%
71.46%
83.23%
33.15%
Internet
1.87 %
4.85%
10.89%
18.94%
26.10%
LMS & GMPCS
0.28%
1.61%
2.52%
4.15%
5.84%
6.32%
Fixed
2.93%
2.97%
2.93%
3.15%
3.21%
3.13%
(Source Nepal Telecommunications Authority July 2014)
tinued broadcasting round the clock, despite
challenges. It also lost revenues from advertising and time slot sales. Although the buildings
and some equipment of print media agencies
were affected, their operations continued. The
building of the Department of Information was
seriously damaged; so too the office premises
of the Press Council of Nepal, National News
Agency and Radio Service Broadcast Development Committee (Radio Nepal). The Film Development Board reported that 57 private cinema halls were also physically impacted by the
earthquake. Their own office premises were also
affected. NTA was forced to move to another
location as their rented office space of NTA were
damaged, forcing a move to another location.
Effects on Sector Investments
While MoIC and NTA provided all regulatory
support to service providers, the earthquake will
likely impact future investments in the telecommunications sectors. As such, the cost of insurance for private operators is likely to increase.
Effects on Government Functions
and Systems
The communications sector is crucial to ensuring that the government is able to communicate
155
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
and manage its disaster response, relief and rehabilitation efforts. While initial network congestion and lack of coverage was experienced, there
has been no visible adverse effect on governance
and key decision-making processes. However,
in the event that the networks had failed and
could not be restored in time, the government
would have been impacted by the development.
Following the earthquake, as the government
seeks to make cash transfers to severely affected
constituencies and individuals, the adoption of
mobile financial services would have been very
effective and would have greatly facilitated the
process of service delivery at such a critical time.
Effects on Risks and Vulnerabilities
As Nepal does not yet have a National Emergency Telecommunications Plan, the sector faces an
increasing vulnerability to network downtime.
A lack of power supply and damage to road
networks in rural Nepal implies that operators
need to rely on back-up power solutions such
as diesel engine generators and solar power for
their rural networks. This increases the risk of
network downtime, as it is a challenge to get fuel
to remote sites. Further, communication towers
located in earthquake-affected and landslideprone areas are at risk of collapse.
Damage costs are estimated on initial assessments by MoIC, based on information58 provided by public and private operators, print and
media broadcasters, the post office and other
agencies. These estimates have not been verified
through detailed engineering assessments. The
loss figures mainly consist of damage to physical premises, network equipment and additional
maintenance costs (largely for fuel supply for
sites where commercial power is unavailable
and/or erratic) and immediate rehabilitation/
reconstruction works.
As telecommunication networks were impacted
immediately after the earthquake, significant
revenue losses were borne by operators due to
network outages (mainly the two large mobile
network operators) and the fact that they provided free airtime and SMS services. The operators also reduced call charges to key interna-
tional locations where a large number of Nepali
residents are based. Finally, media broadcasters
accumulated revenue losses due to the non-carriage of commercial advertising and time slots.
The overall cost of damages and losses in the
communications sector is estimated at NPR
3610.2 million (US$36.10million) and NPR
5084.6 million (US$ 50.85 million), respectively, as summarized in Table 12.2 below.
Disaster Effects and Impacts
The total population of the most-affected 14 districts is about 5.37 million. Most of them live in
remote rural communities and face challenges in
accessing social and economic services. An underdeveloped mobile money ecosystem in Nepal has
impacted their access to finance, and an underdeveloped broadband ecosystem has impacted their
access to public services. Moreover, the lack of a
digital National Identification System is likely to
hamper public service delivery.
The ability of government agencies and people to
communicate and receive information following
the disaster, demonstrated the need for a robust
and resilient communications infrastructure in
Nepal. While operators provided coverage to all
districts and VDCs and were in the process of
increasing coverage of mobile broadband networks, in the short term, their focus will be on
restoring coverage to pre-disaster status. As a
result, the expansion of mobile broadband networks will likely be delayed.
ICT and telecommunications in particular constitutes a crucial economic infrastructure and
its early recovery and restoration is important
to support economic and public service delivery activities in Nepal. Post-disaster relief efforts
relied heavily on telecommunications, internet
and broadcast media.
The GoN has invested in a number of cross-sectoral ICT infrastructure (governmentintegrated
data centre) and service frameworks (NeGIF
and NEA). The adoption and mainstreaming of
these across all government agencies will enable
faster and cheaper deployment of ICT solutions
Qualification: Information provided is preliminary and subject to more details on ground assessment (including engineering and technical) by providers of the information.
58
156
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 12.2: Summary of Estimated Damages and Losses in the Communications Sector
Sub-sector
Estimated
damages (NPR
million)
Estimated
damages (US$
million)
Estimated losses
(NPR million)
Estimated
losses (US$
million)
817.6
8.2
-
-
1,735.5
17.4
4,550.1
45.50
20.8
0.2
467.0
4.67
1
Ministry of Information and Communications
and related agencies
2
Telecommunication operators
3
Internet service providers
4
Postal sector
509.8
5.1
-
-
5
Television broadcasters
248.3
2.5
50.0
0.50
6
News papers
143.0
1.4
-
-
7
Radio broadcasters
56.2
0.6
17.5
0.18
8
Cable television
TOTAL
and applications across government; reduce the
cost of providing public services using ICT; and
support government in the business process reengineering process and allow for data sharing
among agencies.
The government’s disaster risk reduction (DRR)
strategy includes the use of monitoring and early
warning systems some of which rely on telecommunication networks. Further, geo-mapping
activities (e.g., OpenStreetMap) rely on availability of internet access.
Lack of reliable power and insufficient supply
of fuel for diesel engine generators caused significant network downtime. A large number
of subscribers were inaccessible as they were
unable to charge their mobile phones or use
their computers due to a lack of power. On the
other hand, fibre optic cables for network backhaul that were ducted and buried underground
were not adversely affected, as opposed to aerial
cables. There is thus a need to coordinate with
the Department of Roads and urban authorities
in order to facilitate the development of underground ducts to enable underground fibre networks. As telecom and internet providers start
using optical-fibre ground wire (OPGW) on
power transmission networks, the linkage between the ICT and the power sector will only
become stronger.
The earthquake response has demonstrated
the challenges faced in correctly identifying
79.0
0.8
-
-
3,610.2
36.1
5,084.6
50.85
and verifying affected persons based on
biometric information.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
Reconstruction needs resulting directly from
the earthquake in the Communications sector
is estimated at NPR 4938.8 million (US$49.4
million) over a 24-month period.
The key priorities are to ensure that:
• the most-affected districts receive both telecommunications and internet services as
quickly as possible;
• displaced communities are provided access to
internet services;
• towers are constructed at critical sites both
within Kathmandu Valley, in the 14 districts
and in other places to ensure that service
interruptions are minimized in the event of
another disaster;
• NRB finalizes its mobile financial services
regulations on a fast track basis;
• an emergency public service broadcasting
studio infrastructure is built and Radio Nepal and Nepal Television are merged into a
single public service broadcasting agency;
• the construction of the disaster recovery integrated data centre commences immediately; and
• fuel and power supply to the telecommunications sector is prioritized.
The objective is to pursue the development of
a future-ready communications infrastructure
and service industry that meets the country’s
157
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
long-term development objectives in terms of
inclusive, equitable and sustainable growth as
well as a well-functioning digital economy. The
strategy is to ensure that networks are built back
better and are resilient to disasters.
In the interest of a more resilient telecommunication network, the following measures should
be examined:
• Promoting underground cabling in ducts for
fibre optic cables to strengthen telecommunication infrastructure.
• Improving the resilience of BTS: making
provisions for vehicles with microwave transceivers combined with the function of a base
station as well as a satellite ground station,
to be shared between operators; adjusting the
output power and reconfiguring base station
antennas to cover more ground to serve low
population density and low network traffic
areas better; Increasing power back-up at
base stations and all other communication
facilities to counter electricity outages.
• Increasing power back-up at the base stations and all other communication facilities
to counter electricity outages by deploying
more optical fibre on power transmission
networks and the use of techniques such as
large-zone base stations (to widen existing
coverage). Such base stations will have to be
deployed in highly populated areas covering
a radius of seven km on buildings that have
high standards of earthquake resistance.
• Ensuring multiple route redundancies for
the backhaul network, both domestic and
regional, to ensure that Nepal’s telecommunications and internet connectivity is not
compromised in the future.
• Ensuring creation of hazard maps by local
authorities and their usage, taking necessary
safety precautions while building communications infrastructure.
• Taking measures to mitigate traffic congestion on the network, such as call restriction,
call prioritization and appropriate disclosure
of network capacity by operators through a
pre-determined process.
• Building Critical Tower Infrastructure in key
strategic locations nationwide and enabling
infrastructure sharing for all operators and
potential broadcast media providers.
158
While it is expected that telecommunications
coverage will eventually be restored to pre-earthquake status, the ability of operators to provide
broadband internet access across the country
will be limited by factors such as:
•lack of access to affordable backhaul
networks (including fibre optic networks);
• inadequate access to radio
spectrum resources; and
•high taxes and sector specific duties
and royalties.
It is important to note that these factors have
an impact on the consumers with regard to the
total cost of ownership and usage. Populations
in severely-affected districts will likely have less
disposable income to spend on communication
services (both voice and internet). Thus, Nepal
is likely to fall behind in digitally connecting its
people, particularly through the internet in rural
areas, if policy decisions and regulatory actions
are not taken up with urgency.
In the aftermath of the earthquake, public service broadcasters including Radio Nepal and
Nepal Television were instrumental in ensuring
that the Nepali people were kept fully informed
of developments. Given their extremely critical
public service role, it is important to ensure their
resilience for the future. This could include the
development of back-up production studios in
locations outside of Kathmandu.
As ICT is a cross-cutting sector and key infrastructure such as government data centres and
the National Identification (NID) infrastructure
are key enablers, the building back better strategy would also address these infrastructures. The
NID infrastructure should be addressed under
the governance agenda.
Overall, given Nepal’s reliance on ICT in general, it is important to complete the government’s
integrated data centre for disaster recovery on a
priority basis. Potentially, a second disaster recovery centre, based on containerized data centres, could be established in the Far West Region
of Nepal. The government could also plan on a
cloud strategy for hosting government data, applications, and services.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
GoN should accelerate the implementation of
its digital National Identification (NID) programme to provide better public services and
target beneficiaries of social protection and other support, both in the post-disaster period and
in the long term.
The communications sector in a digitally converged59 environment cannot be treated separately from the ICT sector. Nepal is the only country
in South Asia today where communications and
IT are handled by two separate ministries. This
has impacted the development of the ICT sector
in the country. To address ICT in a more holistic
manner, the IT policy making and implementation function can be transferred from the Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology to
MoIC, thus paving the way for a converged ICT
sector that could then consider an integrated ICT
policy. This will enable improved disaster risk and
business continuity ICT planning across the government and enable Nepal to make the best of
digital economy opportunities.
While recovery costs for telecommunications in
particular have been borne by the service providers as they have had to restore services, there
are short-term reconstruction needs. The table
below shows the reconstruction needs of the
communications sector based on information
provided by operators and service providers.
These estimates are for a 12-month period in
FY 2015-2016. In addition, there is an urgent
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
need for building back better access (cellular and
internet services) and eGovernment infrastructure platforms. This cost is estimated at NPR.
1,500 million over the next two years.
Implementation Arrangements
The proposed strategy revolves around a twophase intervention: the short to medium term,
and the medium to the long term.
Table 12.4 below summarizes the immediate priorities, both related to restoring basic
communications services and to use of ICT
in broader cross-sectoral relief operations. The
overall estimated cost to implement these high
priority actions to ensure resilience and build
back better is approximately NPR 3,500 million
(US$35 million).
The medium to long-term ICT requirements
related to building the country’s resilience and
promoting overall competitiveness of the economy are identified in Table 12.5 below.
Assessment Methodology
This assessment has been carried out under the
guidance of the National Planning Commission
(NPC) and the Post Disaster Needs Assessment
(PDNA) secretariat. It is based on the initial assessment provided by MoIC and NTA, which
have been reviewed by the PDNA team.
The damage, loss and recovery assessments are
Table 12.3: Estimated Recovery and Reconstruction Costs
Subsector
Estimated Reconstruction
(NPR million)
Estimated Reconstruction
(US$ million)
1
Ministry of Information and Communications and related
agencies
798.7
7.99
2
Telecommunication operators
517.8
5.18
3
Internet Service Providers
5.9
0.06
4
Postal Sector
742.0
7.42
5
Television Broadcasters
855.5
8.56
6
Newspapers
193.3
1.93
7
Radio Broadcasters
246.6
2.47
8
Cable Television
9
Build Back Better of Access and eGovernment infrastructure
TOTAL
59
79.0
0.79
1500.0
15.00
4,938.8
49.39
Digital convergence of telecommunications, IT, consumer electronics and media.
159
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 12.4: Short-term Actions
Area
Immediate needs
Specific actions
Restoring Nepal
Telecom’s local
network for priority customers
1.Repairing local access networks in
Kathmandu and affected districts for priority customers (government, hospitals,
schools)
1.
Confirm locations and cost of repairing access network for
priority customers
2.Pool requests for power generators across sectors
2.Emergency power generators
Cellular and Internet services
1.Restore cellular service by repairing
fallen/ damaged sites
1.Use RTDF to build new towers in severely affected districts
and ensure infrastructure sharing between operators
2.Provide high speed broadband connectivity in the worst-affected districts.
2.Use RTDF to support development of wireless broadband
networks in worst affected districts
3.Lease government land, where available,
within Kathmandu Valley to operators to
build towers
3.Use government resource and RTDF to finance the early
build out of community information centers in every VDC in
rural Nepal.
4.
NTA and MOIC to identify in collaboration with operators,
sites for leasing from government.
Postal service
•
Immediate restoration of postal service
for official (government and diplomatic)
correspondence
•Repair and rebuild 32 damaged post office buildings.
Public Service
Broadcasters
•
Strengthen Public Service broadcasting
agencies
1.
Build emergency public service studio infrastructure
2.
On a fast track, merge Radio Nepal and Nepal Television into
a single Public Service Broadcasting agency.
Financial system
•Redundancy of fibre network in Kath-
•
Conduct a quick assessment and deploy redundant network
solutions in consultation with the Banking association.
•Use mobile money for transfer of benefit
1.
Nepal Rastra Bank to approve mobile money regulations and
allow mobile operators to participate in service provision.
mandu connecting banks in the capital
Public finance and
mobile payments
and solutions
payments
•Use mobile applications for service deliv- 2.
ery
NTA to lead the mobile service delivery agenda in partnership with stakeholders.
3.Use ICT solutions to identify and verify beneficiaries of cash
transfer and other relief benefits.
Displaced Persons
(DPs)
1.Provide internet access and community
telecentres at DPcamps
2.
eGovernment
Platforms
Creation of a
favourable environment for good
sectoral governance
Continuation of education of displaced
population through e-learning
1.Use RTDF to finance this initiative as a priority.
2.Provision of digitalized textbooks (including teacher’s guides)
and educational material electronically to displaced population.
1.Ensure continuity of Government Integrated Data Center
1.
Current Government Integrated Data Center to be expanded
and Disaster Recovery Center to be built
2.
National Identification System to be
deployed
2.
Complete ADB pilot for national identification program as a
priority and scale up initiative across the country.
1.
Implement the National Broadband
policy
1.Approve and adopt the National Broadband Action Plan currently under preparation.
2.Review and revise licensing regime; and
telecom sector taxation regime
3.
Develop a spectrum roadmap
4.
Convergence approach to ICT sector
2.
Merge ICT function under one Ministry –with IT function
moved to MoIC from Ministry of Environment, Science and
Technology.
3.Approve and implement the integrated National ICT policy
currently under preparation
4.
Committee to review/revise licensing and telecom taxation
regime formed and revisions drafted.
5.RFPDC and FMD to develop a draft spectrum roadmap
160
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
highly dependent on data provided by operators, service providers and government agencies to the MoIC. This data was reviewed in
accordance with PDNA guidelines through
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
discussions with the government and the
PDNA Communications sector team, led by
the MoIC and World Bank, and supported by
Asia Foundation.
Table 12.5: Medium-term Needs and Actions
Area
Medium-term needs
Specific actions
Building resilience
in international and
national communication
1.Establish redundancy for international
gateways at both the India and China
borders.
1.RTDF fund utilized for redundant network build-outs,
with infrastructure sharing mandated.
2.
Deploy short terrestrial fiber networks to
India and China at border points.
2.Review of telecommunications sector policy and regulatory framework to ensure that infrastructure investments
are future proofed.
3.
Deploy national backbone network with
open access (e.g., by including it in the
electricity network rebuilt)
3.Adopt a policy, legal and regulatory framework for infrastructure sharing across utilities and sectors (roads, urban,
power) and easier rights of way access.
4.
Install additional towers in rural areas to
provide increased coverage and ensure
tower sharing
4.
Identify critical network points and implement early
warning systems (EWS) in coordination with other agencies that have existing EWS.
5.
Install and operationalize the emergency
communications network
5.
Develop SOPs for disaster recovery in the telecommunications sector.
6.
Implement a disaster recovery telecommunications Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs)
6.
Develop mobile applications for both smart and feature
phones that can send messages from a customer to preselected numbers.
7.
Develop and raise citizen awareness of
telecommunications and ICT services and
applications for use during disasters
7.Raise awareness among consumers on using telecommunications and ICT services during disasters in order to
prevent network congestion.
Postal service
•Postal network resilience improved
•
Complete restoration of postal service network
Media Broadcast
sector
1.
Digital switchover completed
1.
Work with MOIC and NTA for digital switchover by 2017
2.
Digitalization of public broadcasters and
national news agency’s information.
2.
Nepal Television to procure portable broadcasting equipment.
3.Archive all production materials in a digital format.
Building resilience to
loss of critical data
across sectors
•
Urban planning and
transport
•
Create system of redundant repositories of
data for critical government information
systems
1.Establish government disaster recovery data centers.
Integrate ICT into urban planning in Kathmandu and road construction
1.
Integrate deployment of fiber optic networks into the
reconstruction of Kathmandu’s urban infrastructure
2.
Include ducts for telecom infrastructure in roads, as well
as in buildings (both new and rebuilt)
2.Pilot and adopt the concept of “cloud computing”
161
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
162
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
13. Community Infrastructure
Summary
Community infrastructure are small-scale facilities owned, planned, built, operated and/or
maintained with the active involvement of the
community. On a day-to-day basis, local service
structures or life-line structures are crucial to the
community; however, due to low levels of socioeconomic development and complex topography, community infrastructure in Nepal is still
in its developing phase.
Government polices defines community infrastructure as covering seven sectors: rural transport; water supply and sanitation; irrigation;
electricity; community buildings; social infrastructure; and solid waste infrastructure. However, in order to avoid duplication, the damages and
losses relating to rural roads, irrigation, electricity
and drinking water are covered in separate sector
reports. The damage and losses to the remaining
components – trails bridges, footpaths, community buildings and micro communal works,
amount to NPR 3.3 billion (US$ 33.5million).
Community infrastructure was substantially
damaged in the affected districts. Roads, bridges
and trails were damaged or swept away by the
earthquake and landslides; irrigation, microhydro and drinking water schemes were impacted, becoming completely non-operational due to
changes in the hydrological regime in some cases;
electricity networks that connected houses as well
as solar installations were damaged; community
buildings used for meetings, social events and
child care collapsed; and many of the micro infrastructure facilities such as ponds, dug-wells or
threshing/drying areas were broken.
The long-term recovery goal for community infrastructure is to rebuild to better and more resilient standards and expand in a way as to improve
the access of poor and marginalized groups to its
various facilities. Several lessons can be learnt
from the damage caused by the earthquake;
moreover, issues of design and maintenance of
rural community structures have widened the
scope of sustainable community development.
The assessment report shows that any disruption
in these grassroots structures limits the community’s access to the entire network of institutional
structures that drive the community development
efforts of the government, NGOs and development partners. Further, any such disruption also
makes it difficult for people to access the technological and market opportunities that the private
sector can provide.
In line with this vision, the reconstruction effort should be anchored in a highly participative
approach characterized by explicit mechanisms
to involve the poor and marginalized sections of
the population, and women. There should be a
streamlined approval, implementation, monitoring and reporting process for rapid funds disbursements in the interests of accountability and
transparency. There should also be improved
institutional mechanisms for operations and
maintenance, including sustainable cost recovery. Priority is to be accorded to areas that are at
risk from landslides and floods, and economic
opportunities should be created for populations to relocate to safer places. Efforts should
be made to promote suitable technologies, lightweight construction material, local materials
and earthquake-resistant designs, and to incorporate the role of the private sector. Reconstruction and recovery costs based on these enhanced
criteria have been estimated at NPR 4,450 million (US$44.5 million). This is in addition to
the costs estimated for community-level projects
in the sectoral reports on transport, irrigation,
drinking water and electricity.
The Government of Nepal (GoN) has a
longstanding experience of developing
community infrastructure. At present there are
a number of ongoing major projects and programmes that aim to address the challenges of
building back better, with NGOs and development partners working with the government in
a spirit of collaboration aimed at resilient reconstruction and rehabilitation.
163
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
The existing system of governance and implementation needs to be strengthened. Planning
and prioritizing for rehabilitation needs to be
accomplished in a participative manner, formalizing community platforms alongside assessment by local bodies (Village Development
Committee/District Development Committees/
Municipalities (VDC/DDC/MNC). Local bodies should lead community infrastructure reconstruction, supported by the Ministry of Federal
Affairs and Local Development (MoFALD).
Technical support should be provided by the
Department of Local Infrastructure Development and Agricultural Roads (DoLIDAR) and
the District Technical Offices (DTOs), which
need to be strengthened.
Pre-Disaster Context
and Baseline
Most communities in the earthquake-affected
districts live in scattered settlements usually consisting of households belonging to the same caste
or ethnic group, clan or even one large extended
family. This sector report covers the 14 affected
districts that have been severely affected, which
together account for 741 VDCs and municipalities. Most of the villages are located in hilly or
mountainous areas; a few are situated in valleys
and in the inner Tarai area. In most of the affected
areas existing infrastructure in most of these areas is limited to largely labour-based traditional
design and technology, dependent on the use of
local materials. Both the quantity and quality of
local infrastructure varies with the topography
and is vulnerable to disasters and extreme weather
events, particularly due to weak maintenance.
Much of the smaller community infrastructure,
including footpaths, trails, drinking water supplies and small hydro or solar electricity producing schemes, are built with the involvement of
local communities. Public infrastructure, such as
an irrigation scheme, a bridge or a road linking to
a highway or district road, may be built by one
or several villages but this tends to be rare for it
requires substantial community mobilization.
In all the affected districts have about 13,000 km
of village roads, 1,000 trail bridges and 11,000
km of foot trails; small scale irrigation facilities
covering 130,000 ha of land; 800 drinking water schemes; 260 small hydroelectricity schemes
164
and 70,000 solar installations; and over 2,000
community buildings . In addition, most settlements and villages have a range of micro facilities which serve small groups of 15-20 households. These structures usually consist of small
ponds or tanks to capture rainwater; small solar
pumps for drawing water for humans, livestock
or kitchen gardens; sheds for storage and to provide shelter for livestock; and areas for drying
and threshing crops such as rice. These small micro-infrastructure facilities are valued at almost
NPRs 4,000 million (US$40 million).
Infrastructure services such as irrigation, electricity and drinking water substantially improve
productivity and quality of life in the community. The transport network, though limited,
provides a critical linkage to markets and social
services such as schools, health centres and hospitals. Local bodies are responsible for implementation, oversight and maintenance support.
Over several years efforts have been launched to
empower community-level organizations to operate local services/infrastructure, creating an interface with beneficiaries. Likewise, local NGOs
have partnered with ongoing programmes such
as the Rural Community Infrastructure Works
(RCIW) programme and the Poverty Alleviation Fund (PAF) programme to mobilize people to form Users Group (UG) or Community
Organizations (COs). Often cash-for-work or
food-for-work modalities are employed to build
community infrastructure, particularly when
the works are technically simple.
Generally, COs tend to be small and only cover one or few settlements. As a result projects
and programmes prepared and implemented
through them tend to be small and focus on
very local needs. Regular operations and maintenance could be challenging, particularly if
substantial cash outlays are needed for repairs.
Infrastructure is subject to the risks of inclement weather, climatic and geological changes and
little effort has been made to ensure that they are
resilient. The fragility of community-level infrastructure is exacerbated by the consequences of
a harsh environment; low level technology; and
limited funds for good quality construction and
maintenance. Hence, most community infra-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
structure is vulnerable to rapid deterioration in
the face of heavy monsoon rains or landslides,
among others.
Post-Disaster Context
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
cessitated new paths. The damages are estimated
to be NPR 469 million (US$ 4.7 million) for
this component of community infrastructure.
Village, district and municipal roads were also
affected which, along with losses, are detailed in
the sectoral report on transport.
Disaster Effects and Impacts
The damage to community infrastructure was
greatest around the epicentre of the earthquake
area and in the 14 severely-affected districts.
Damage to community infrastructure has a
negative social impact on villagers, particularly women who are responsible for household
chores and looking after livestock as well. Further, with the monsoon, heavy rains, landslides
and high water levels in streams and rivers, there
is likely to be further damage to community infrastructure.
The damage to local infrastructure has had a
negative economic, social and quality-of-life impact – reducing productivity and access to key
services such as electricity and drinking water. In
addition, the damage to community infrastructure has increased the isolation of many communities living in mountain areas, to a great
extent cutting them off from trade, commerce,
education and medical facilities that can have severe cultural and social impacts. In many cases,
the loss of community facilities has reduced the
interaction of people for cooperative economic
and social activities which, if not addressed
quickly, could significantly erode social capital.
Rural Transport
Rapid and safe transportation remains a major
challenge in Nepal with many rural communities located hours away from the nearest arterial
road or district headquarters where essential social and economics services are available. Community roads continue to be the weakest link in
the transport network, particularly trail bridges
and walking tracks that link households and
settlements, and village roads – typically 10-15
km long - that link the village to the district road
network. District-level reports have detailed
the damage to various trail bridges comprising
mainly of cracks, breakages and movements in
the foundations and associated structures. Village walking trails were mainly damaged due to
landslides caused by the earthquake. Some walking trails only needed clearing while others ne-
Community Irrigation
In the mountainous and hilly areas, marked by
steep slopes and fast flowing streams, intake
structures of irrigation canals as well as canals
themselves, which often run along the contours
for 0.5 km to 2 km, were affected. In the less
hilly areas and valleys, the damage was less, with
the problems mainly relating to water storage, diversion structures and channels. Of the
130,000 ha of community irrigated lands in the
14 most-affected districts, 44,000 ha are farmermanaged irrigation schemes under the purview
of the Irrigation Department, and 87,000 ha are
community irrigated areas that farmers do not
pay charges for. The damage will have an impact
on the summer crops, and local water shortage
may lead to a substitution of rice with maize.
The impact of the damage will be higher in the
case of winter crops which require irrigation
owing to low rainfall. The damages for smallscale community irrigation schemes, as well as
the quantification of losses, are provided in the
PDNA sector report on irrigation.
Micro Electricity
At the community level, a number of hydropower and solar powered electricity generation facilities have been damaged or destroyed. Similarly,
some of the local distribution systems that draw
from the national grids and provide electricity to
households and settlements have also been damaged. The estimates of damages in small-scale
electricity generation and distribution, as well as
the quantification of losses, are provided in the
PDNA’s sectoral report on electricity.
Community Drinking Water
Many of the settlements and villages in the
mountains and higher hills rely on streams
and springs for their domestic water supply.
However, those at lower altitudes pump water
from streams or wells into local storage tanks.
Although a high proportion (60 percent to 80
percent), theoretically, has access to drinking
water, many schemes were in poor condition
165
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
even prior to the earthquake. The earthquake
further damaged tanks, pipes, and pumps and
associated supply structures. In some cases,
geological changes have resulted in streams
and springs running dry. In addition to physical damage, the effect on drinking water infrastructure has had a negative impact on women
and young girls who are responsible for fetching
drinking water for the entire household. The estimate of damages in drinking water and sanitation infrastructure, as well as quantification of
losses, is provided in PDNA’s sectoral report on
water, sanitation and hygiene.
Community Buildings
A number of village buildings are used by the
community and community organizations such
as ‘Ama Samuha’ (‘Mother’s group’), ‘Chetna
Samuha’ (‘Awareness Group’), public libraries, community halls, cooperative buildings and
Ward Citizen Forums, among others, for social
(religious and cultural) gatherings and training
purposes. Community buildings provide spaces
to discuss and decide on actions that impact the
community as a whole. An added advantage is
that these places denote safe meeting grounds
and a refuge, especially in the wake of a disaster.
Community buildings are critical physical component of rural landscape. The damages in this
component of community infrastructure amount
to NPR 2,500 million (US$ 25 million).
Micro Facilities
Most settlements and villages have a range of
micro facilities catering to small groups of 1520 households. These comprise small ponds or
tanks to capture rainwater for drinking, washing
animals or even to irrigate the kitchen garden;
sheds for storage and to provide shelter for livestock; and areas for drying and threshing crops
such as rice. The damages are estimated at NPR
379 million (US$ 3.8 million).
Damages and Losses
The total damages for the above mentioned
works are estimated at NPR 3,349 million
(US$33.5 million). The largest proportion of
these costs are related to community buildings
(NPR 2,500 million [US$25 million]), followed
by micro facilities.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
As mentioned earlier, the way this PDNA is
structured, the damage and needs data on four
of the seven components of community infrastructure (irrigation, electricity, water, sanitation
and hygiene, and transport) have been dealt
with in the respective sector reports. The sectoral
report on community infrastructure deals with
damages and needs of three components, namely trail roads and bridges, community buildings
and other micro facilities.
However, during the recovery and reconstruction
phase it is essential that a unified and comprehensive approach be followed for all community-level
infrastructure work, all the more so since the effect of the earthquake could well exacerbate the
sense of isolation and of being abandoned among
the weaker sections, and women.
Due to the levels of socio-economic
development and complex topography,
community infrastructure in Nepal is still in the
process of evolving. Most of it is out of reach
for, say, persons living with disabilities (PLWD).
Disruptions in grassroots infrastructure
that affect the mobility and ability of the
community to access public services and larger
economic opportunities in the public and
private sector (the latter especially in the light
of new technology) have a very negative impact.
Traditional systems related to gender, ethnicity
and caste persist in the absence of impact from
national efforts to address these issues. Secondly,
Table 13.1: Damages to Trail Bridges, Community Buildings and Micro Facilities
Description
Damage Cost
Trail bridge
85 Nos.
NPR 118.8 m
US$ 1.2 m
Foot trail
500 km
NPR 350 m
US$ 3.5 m
Community buildings
1667 Nos.
NPR 2501.9 m
US$ 25 m
Others (Micro community structure)
Lumpsum
NPR 378.6 m
US$ 3.8 m
NPR. 3349.3 m
US$ 33.5 m
Total
166
Unit
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
production systems, too, remain at the level of
subsistence.
There is consensus on the view that as countries affected by disasters rebuild damaged or
destroyed infrastructures, they need to build
back better. This usually means that services,
infrastructure and governance mechanisms need
to be rebuilt to a higher level than in the past,
which includes being more resilient to future
shocks as well. However, in Nepal, community
infrastructure was extremely limited even prior
to the earthquake. In such a context, a broader
concept of building back better is required – a
concept that not only involves rebuilding damaged or destroyed community infrastructure
but also its expansion to improve the access of
marginalized sections of society, disadvantaged
and vulnerable social and ethnic groups, PLWD,
children, and women.
Hence, the targeted recovery outcome is to put
in place a network of community infrastructure that links all households and segments of
population to national and district level services,
infrastructure, markets and social development
efforts, and to create equitable opportunities for
social and economic development at the grassroots level.
Based on the above vision, the community infrastructure recovery effort would require:
• a highly participative approach for planning,
resourcing, implementation and governance
of community infrastructure, with strong and
explicit mechanisms to involve the poor and
marginalized sections, including women;
• according priority to areas at risk from
landslides and floods, and creating new
economic opportunities in areas for
populations to relocate;
• promoting appropriate technologies, lightweight construction material, use of local
material and earthquake-resistant designs,
finding ways to enhance the role of the
private sector;
• skill development for communities in line
with the new technologies to create new livelihood opportunities;
• improved institutional mechanisms for operations and maintenance, including sustainable cost recovery;
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
• a streamlined approval, implementation,
monitoring and reporting process for rapid
funds disbursement, and to enhance accountability and transparency;
• an emphasis on the basic principles of recovery such as safety first, building back better,
appropriate technology, social acceptance
and consensus; and
• reiteration of the first principle of ensuring
access for disadvantaged sections, groups
with specific needs such as children and
PLWD, and women.
Actions are also required to strengthen DDCs.
They need to play a coordinating role to ensure
that all communities and population groups
have access to minimum infrastructure services
and see that there is no duplication of efforts
at the same time. Towards this, DDC should
improve current systems of monitoring community infrastructures to ensure that they are
adequately maintained and operated. Following recovery and reconstruction, initiatives are
required to rehabilitate community livelihoods.
Building Back Better
As suggested above, BBB in Nepal would imply:
•social aspects, among them greater
involvement of the communities, particularly
women and other sections of the population;
• geographical aspects, concerning relocation
away from sites prone to risks; and
• technological aspects, particularly the use
of appropriate, local materials and designs,
better management and operation,
and maintenance.
These improvements are bound to have cost and
resource implications. In addition, it is proposed
that funds be provided on a priority to communities that lack even the minimal set of facilities
needed for their social and economic well-being, particularly those impacting women. These
minimum facilities would translate to drinking
water supplies, and water for livestock; sanitation and solid waste disposal; electricity supply
either through a hydro/solar installation or by
linking to the national grid; community buildings that can be used for social activities and as
daycare centres where women can leave their
children while working, and as a place of refuge
following a disaster.
167
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Costs of Recovery
The earthquake recovery and reconstruction effort will require about NPR 4,451 million (US$
44.5 million). Of this NPR 3,850 million (US$
38.5 million) is for repair and reconstruction of
community infrastructure considered in this report -- NPR 3,349 million (US$ 33.5 million)
for direct repair and reconstruction of damaged
facilities, and NPR 502 million (US$ 5 million)
for building back better with a greater focus on
vulnerable sections of the population, and women; more resilient designs and relocation to areas
less prone to natural hazards. In addition, NPR
600 million (US$ 6 million) will be required to
fill the infrastructure gap in remote villages that
are poorly served.
Implementation Arrangements
Following the earthquake, a number of ongoing major projects and programmes aim to ad-
168
dress the challenges of developing community
infrastructure in a better way. For a long time,
MoFALD and its agencies have been implementing community-based programmes such as
the Rural Community Infrastructure (RCIW),
Community Irrigation Project (CIP), among
others. Some of the key features of these new
generation of community infrastructure projects
include a strong effort at social and community
mobilization, working closely with local governmental and non-governmental agencies and
partner organizations; community involvement
in construction and maintenance through cashfor-work and food-for-work; well-functioning
financial and monitoring systems; and technical
wings that can promote low cost, technologically advanced, environmentally-friendly designs.
The current institutional, organizational and
programme set-up would be able to handle the
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
recovery and reconstruction effort in the affected areas. Local bodies (VDC/DDC/MNC) are
mandated to develop sustainable community infrastructure, and they are supported by the technical wing of DoLIDAR and DTOs, with MoFALD being responsible for policy coordination
at the central level. This network of agencies,
which reaches down to the village level, needs to
be institutionally strengthened for an effective
reconstruction strategy based on the principle of
building back better. Simultaneously, a number
of improvements in operational practices would
be needed including in social mobilization, financial management, use of new technology,
and improved reporting and monitoring.
Furthermore, private sector support, as per the recovery strategy, is important to rehabilitate community livelihoods. To sum up, community infrastructure recovery responsibility should be led
by local bodies, and the funds would be decided
in accordance with the programme document.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Assessment Methodology
This assessment focused on the 14 most-affected
districts. Of these seven districts are ‘severely affected’ (Rasuwa, Gorkha, Nuwakot, Dhading,
Sindhupalchowk, Dolakha, and Ramechhap),
and seven are ‘crisis hit’ (Kavrepalanchowk,
Sindhuli, Okkhaldhunga, Makawanpur, Lalitpur, Bhaktapur and Kathmandu).
The assessment is based on data obtained from
various sources such as district offices, DDCs,
MNCs, VDCs (through MoFALD); damage
assessments done by institutions with ongoing
activities related to community infrastructure
such as the Alternative Energy Promotion Centre
(AEPC), the Poverty Alleviation Fund (PAF); as
well as data from published sources such as district
profiles and from various technical departments
such as DoLIDAR and Department of Irrigation.
Moreover, selective field visits were made to verify
and validate data, and to discuss reconstruction
modalities with local officials and communities.
169
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
170
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
14.Transport
Summary
The PDNA for the transport sector covers the
strategic road network, the local road network
(which includes the district road core network
as well as the village road core network), and air
transport subsectors. The Department of Roads
(DoR), Department of Local Infrastructure Development and Agriculture Roads (DoLIDAR)
and Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN)
are the government agencies responsible for
these subsectors.
This assessment was carried out according to the
guidelines discussed during a two-day workshop
organized by the PDNA secretariat. It is based
on the initial assessment provided by CAAN,
DoLIDAR and DOR, which have been reviewed by the PDNA team.
The total damages and losses in economic flows
are estimated at NPR 17188 million (US$171.88
million) and NPR 4930 million (US$49.30 million), respectively. The total recovery need is estimated at NPR 28200 million (US$282 million).
About 68 percent of the estimated total needs
are in the local roads network (LRN), which is a
lifeline infrastructure for rural communities. The
share of strategic roads network (SRN) is about
32 percent of the total needs.
Airports experienced minor damages to some
structures but these did not affect air transport
operations in any way. Damage to the civil aviation sector was NPR 110 million (US$1.1 million) and the losses amounted to NPR 130 million (US$ 1.3 million).
Recovery needs in the transport sector are estimated at NPR 28,185 million (US$282 million) for 60 months from 25 April 2015. This
estimate is based on the damages and costs data
provided by DoR, DoLIDAR and CAAN. A
majority of the recovery needs pertain to LRN
because considerations of resilience have not
been integral to the design of this network
which experiences relatively low traffic volumes.
However, LRN is crucial for access to remote areas and hence the urgency to make it functional
again at the soonest.
Recovery needs cover the short term (up to six
months), medium term (up to 24 months),
and the long term (up to 60 months). Shortterm activities include the immediate opening
up of blocked roads, repair of minor damages
to prevent the monsoon from inflicting further damage, and repair of non-structural and
minor structural cracks in the office and workshop buildings of DoR, DoLIDAR and CAAN.
Medium-term activities include rehabilitation
or reconstruction of relatively small infrastructure on the principle of build back better (BBB),
based on risk assessment to the extent possible.
Relatively large projects for rehabilitation, reconstruction or improvement aimed at building back better, which would be built over 24
months, are categorized as long-term work.
Ultimately, the underlying aim is to use the opportunity to build disaster-resilient infrastructure.
Pre-Disaster Context and
Baseline
Roads are the predominant mode of transport
in the country, and the development and adequate maintenance of road networks is critical for achieving regionally-balanced economic
growth as well as promoting inclusive growth
by enabling people to access public services and
opportunities for advancement. Moreover, roads
are vital for rapidly responding with support
services in the event of a disaster. At another
level, domestic air transport has also been on the
rise, with the Tribhuvan International Airport
(TIA) in Kathmandu, Nepal’s sole international
airport, as the hub.
Nepal has the lowest road density in the region.
Even today, 22 percent of the population lacks
road accessibility. Nepal has about 14,902 km
long SRN, which constitutes the core network
of national highways and feeder roads connect-
171
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
ing district headquarters. About 51 percent of
SRN is paved, 13 percent is gravelled and 36
percent is earthen. Ten percent of SRN is in a
good condition, 74 percent is in fair condition,
while 16 percent requires urgent repair.
Nepal also has about 50,944 km of LRN. About
3 percent of the network is black-topped, 29
percent is gravelled, and about 68 percent is
earthen.60 LRN comprises two types of road networks: the district road core network (DRCN)
and the village road core network (VRCN).
In the 31 affected districts, SRN extends across
5,140 km while LRN, which is crucial for rural
communities, covers about 29,443 km. Vehicles
in Nepal numbered 1.63 million at the end of
first quarter of 2014, which is a two-fold increase
over the last five years. Seventy-seven percent of
the total registered vehicles are motorcycles.
Two central government departments are involved in road network development and operations. DoR (Ministry of Physical Infrastructure
and Transport [MPIT]) is in charge of developing
and maintaining SRN, and DoLIDAR (Ministry
of Federal Affairs and Local Development [MoFALD]) directly develops and maintains SRN.
However, DoLIDAR manages LRN in a decentralized manner, providing technical support
through the District Technical Offices (DTOs)
within the District Development Committees
(DDCs), a local government body. With regard
to air transport, CAAN plays the role of regulator
and operator of all airports in Nepal. Its revenue
comes mainly from TIA (90 percent).
DoR is a technical organization comprising 428
engineers under MPIT. It has 34 divisional offices, five regional offices, seven heavy equipment
divisions, and 10 mechanical divisions for the
construction and maintenance of strategic roads
all over the country. Major projects financed by
development partners are implemented under
separate project management offices. Consultants are engaged for the design and supervision
of such projects. Procurement of work, goods
and services are done under the prevailing Public Procurement Act except for projects financed
by development partners, which are guided by
the provisions of the financial agreements. The
procurement process under the Public Procurement Act (PPA), 2063, tends to be slow and
cumbersome.
DoLIDAR has a strength of 79 staff including
44 engineers and, in addition, 578 engineering
staff assigned to DTOs. Its technical services to
LRN are provided through DTOs located in all
75 districts, to assist the DDCs to implement
the construction and maintenance of local infrastructure. The key characteristic of LRN is
that it is participatory and low cost in nature,
with a high level of community participation in
decision making but a low level of engineering
inputs in their development. This often results
in significant portions of the network being
un-engineered, low quality, earthen roads. For
example, the absence of essential retaining and
drainage structures and poorly maintained cutand-fill slopes are very common in LRN, exposing them to damage even during normal rainfall
and traffic conditions. Motorable bridges in
LRN are few even though they are needed. Consequently, a significant portion of VRCN and
some part of DRCN roads require heavy investment to make them accessible or usable for safe
public transport. All these factors contributed to
the limited accessibility of LRN even before the
earthquake. The disaster exacerbated the situation to a greater extent.
Procurement for local infrastructure projects is
carried out under the provisions of local body
financial rules guided by the prevailing Local
Self Governance Act 2055, and PPA. The projects are either undertaken by Users Committees
(UCs) or by local contractors through competitive bidding process, depending on the nature
and volume of the work.
Post-Disaster Context
Damages and Losses
A very small percentage of SRN was completely
damaged/washed out or sank due to the earthquake. In hill/mountain roads, landslides caused
a partial blockage of road traffic for a few days in
limited sections of SRN. A major disruption of
traffic has been experienced in the entire 26 km
DoLIDAR. 2012. Summary of Rural Roads Record, 2069, Department of Local Infrastructure Development Agricultural Roads, Lalitpur
60
172
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Arniko Rajmarg section adjacent to the Chinese
border, causing interruption of trade flows between the two countries.
ing the calculation of loss of agricultural products and health services, among others, due to
the blockage of roads.
The estimated damage costs (damages plus losses) are based on the initial assessment of DOR.
Damages refer to the cost of specific repair and
reconstruction cost. The losses mainly include
the cost of equipment operation to get the road
opened after the quake (NPR 15 million or US$
0.15 million); an additional cost (30 percent of
the damage cost) for monsoon risks and inflation, and losses of vehicle operating cost (NPR
12.6 million or US$ 0.12 million). There has
been no loss in tolls since there are no toll roads
in the affected areas. The total estimated damages and losses on SRN are NPR 4,589 million (US$45.9 million) and NPR 526 million
(US$5.26 million), respectively.
In the airports, TIA and 13 domestic airports
experienced only minor damage to both the airside and landside facilities, which did not affect
air transport operations. Although airport operations were not suspended after the earthquake,
TIA incurred revenue losses during rescue and
relief operations due to waivers of landing and
cargo charges, airport terminal fees, reduced
passenger traffic on regular flights, and additional operational expenses for 24-hour operations
immediately following the earthquake. The estimated damages and losses on airports are NPR
114 million (US$1.1 million) and NRs130 million (US$1.3 million) respectively.
Similarly, the estimated damages and losses on
LRN are NPR 12,485 million (US$ 124.85
million) and NPR 4,274 million (US$42.74
million), respectively. The recovery cost of LRN
is the damage cost plus an additional 50 percent
of the damage cost (for monsoon risks and inflation). On LRN extensive road blockages were
reported in DRCN for a number of days, while
VRCN, most of which was non-motorable even
before the earthquake, suffered further blockages, becoming inaccessible. The obstructions
were mainly due to landslides. Some road sections were completely destabilized and damaged. DTOs have received reports of persisting
instability in fragile areas with visible cracks and
fissures noted above the road sections. However, the impacts and the severity vary widely
across districts. For example, the damages to
LRN in Dolakha and Sindhupalchowk districts
have been observed throughout the districts,
while serious damage is mostly concentrated in
the northern sections of Gorkha and Dhading
districts. In the case of LRN, losses in transportation cost due to road closure have been
estimated on the assumption that demand does
not change and transportation refers mainly
to non-motorized transport. This gives a loss
to the economy of about NPR 3,986 million
(US$39.86 million) over the recovery period.
This amount is an indicative loss which is not
included in the transport sector loss because this
may overlap with other sectoral assessment dur-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
The overall damages and losses of the transport sector amount to NPR 17,188 million
(US$171.9 million) and NPR 4,930 million (US$49.30 million), respectively, as
summarized in Table 14.1.
Effects on Decision Making
In Kathmandu, which is home to 25 million
people, no significant reduction in transportation services has been observed. No major destruction of public transportation vehicles has
been reported either. Thus, no adverse effect of
transport sector damage has been observed on
governance or decision-making processes.
Risks and Vulnerabilities
Due to the mountainous terrain and climate of
Nepal, road networks are prone to damages and
blockages due to landslides, and road formation
washouts during monsoon seasons. The earthquake increased the risk of landslides by further
loosening mountain slopes and damaging mountain slope protections wherever they are provided.
Damage to drainage structures further increase
the risk of floods. The already-poor pavement of
TIA may have been weakened by the earthquake,
which will further deteriorate during the coming monsoon season. It is necessary to carefully
evaluate the pavement strength and initiate the
required rehabilitation work at the earliest.
Disaster Effects and Impacts
For the 5.37 million population of largely rural
173
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 14.1: Summary of Damages and Losses in Transport Sector (NPR million)
Subsectors
Strategic road network (SRN)
Component
Estimated damage
Estimated loss
Highways and feeder roads
1,660
526
Bridges
2,676
0
Government buildings
253
0
Subtotal
Local Road Network (LRN)
District road core network (DRCN)
Village road core network (LRCN)
4,589
526
8,858
2,674
3,627
1,600
12,485
4,274
Airports
95
130
CAAN HQ, Academy, Safety, Fire Building
19
0
Subtotal
Civil aviation
Subtotal
Total for transport sector
114
130
17,188
4,930
Note: Strategic urban roads are included in SRN and the remaining municipal roads are in LRN.
communities living in the most-affected districts, the existing lack of access to social and
economic services has been compounded further by the earthquake. The losses in economic
flow due to being cut off are to be accounted
for in the respective sectors, such as agriculture,
health and education, among others.
The damages to LRN and the consequent interruption of traffic from earthquake-affected
areas have severely impacted the more vulnerable members among the communities. The
proportion of women and children were higher
among those who lost their lives or were severely injured. The damage to LRN at various
places meant that many women, children and
those from disadvantaged groups, including
Dalits, were not able to access necessary treatment or relief support. When support services
are limited due to road blockages, they are often
cornered by the more influential and stronger
members of the community. While this situation has improved with the temporary opening
of blocked LRN sections, it is important that
LRN rehabilitation as well as the reconstruction
process is designed with sensitivity keeping the
needs of vulnerable groups in mind. Priority
should be accorded to women and vulnerable
communities for employment in the repair and
rehabilitation work concerning LRN.
LRN contributes to the economic activities of
rural communities and helps promote agricultural production and technology transfers from
174
urban areas. It also contributes to the development of the social sector such as health and education, by providing rural communities easier
access to social amenities (hospitals and schools).
Losses due to blockages in LRN arises more in
agriculture, education and health sectors than in
the transport sector. On the other hand, SRN
represents crucial economic infrastructure and
its early recovery will spell early recovery for economic activities in the country. Closure of SRN
and airports is expected to cause losses to the
tourism sector development, but there was no
serious damage to SRN and airports this time.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
The long-term aim of recovery is to restore predisaster services provided by the various networks in disaster-affected areas. In doing so,
fully-damaged and partially-damaged structures
are rehabilitated/reconstructed on the principle
of building back better. There are four stages
of recovery needs, namely preparing to minimize damage to infrastructure by the monsoon,
including identifying emergency transport or
evacuation routes; repairing minor damages
of affected structures to hark back to original
standards, including retrofitting of undamaged
structures, where necessary, depending upon the
importance of the structure; rehabilitating the
fully-damaged elements of the main structures
with improved standards to make them resilient
to the monsoon and future disasters; and reconstructing the fully damaged sections of the linear
infrastructure such as roads and airports to
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
design standards that can withstand the impacts
of rainfall, flood and future earthquakes of a serious magnitude.
The recovery strategies involve short term, medium-term, and long-term work. Short-term
work would be completed within six months,
which includes immediate measures for opening
the traffic in landslide-blocked and washed out
sections of the road; repair of damages such as
clearing landslide debris, clearing drains, filling
potholes, sealing the cracks, protecting the outfalls, and repairing partial damages; and work
relating to monsoon preparedness. Mediumterm work should be completed in 24 months,
which includes rehabilitation or reconstruction
of relatively small infrastructure. BBB principles
would be applied for these rehabilitation and reconstruction activities. Relatively large work for
rehabilitation, reconstructions or improvement
with BBB features, which need over 24 months,
is categorized as long-term work.
The design philosophy, procurement modalities
and implementation strategies would be different for short-, medium- and long-term work
and would also depend on the type of transport infrastructure. Short-term work should be
completed with existing government resources,
including the utilization of existing contractors
of government projects. Variation orders or direct contracting should be considered for these
projects. Labour-based approaches using local
workers would be considered for repair work
and earthworks in rehabilitation.
Medium-term activities require the recruitment
of fresh consultants for designs and contractors
for civil work, but fast track procurement should
be considered in the interests of speedy conclusion. Long-term work needs more cautious designing and procurement of large contracts and
would follow the standard procedure. Design
philosophy for medium-term and long-term
work would be based on assessments of risks.
However, due to the nature of disaster recovery
work, executing agencies should establish the
most efficient implementation arrangement.
Special provisions shall be considered by the
government for the purpose. GoN Cabinet decisions for procurement under special circumstances under the provisions of Article 41 (1)
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
(gha 3) of amended PPA 2063 and Article 66 of
the PPA, 2063, and under the provisions in the
bilateral or multilateral agreement as per Article
67 (1)(kha) for foreign financed projects, may
be used as references.
Urban roads in Kathmandu are to be a part of
urban recovery planning of Kathmandu metropolitan area. Long-term comprehensive urban
recovery planning on Kathmandu metropolitan
area, based on the future population forecast,
future urban structure, land use plan, transportation plan, BBB based on risk assessment, including several kinds of recovery projects, such
as evacuation routes, evacuation place like parks,
land readjustment project, among others, are to
be addressed in the Housing and Settlements
Sector of the PDNA.
Design for LRN will be consistent with equipment supported labour-based environmental
friendly approach of the Government of Nepal.
The designs of roads in the mountainous regions
should generally follow Mountain Risk Engineering (MRE) approaches developed by the
International Centre for Integrated Mountain
DeveIopment (ICIMOD) with special attention
to earthquake risks. LRN could be constructed
using community-based approaches but the
shortage of labour due to the chaotic situation
in rural communities requires the utilization of
more equipment, which will be more costly than
under normal circumstances.
Approaches for VCRN shall be different because these roads are mostly non-engineered,
non-climate resilient roads requiring significant
improvements to meet the traffic demand. These
roads are typically for low volume of traffic, but
those which serve as lifeline transport infrastructure to communities, may be built back better to
have climate resilience designs. This may include
construction of water management facilities such
as side drains, pipe culverts or gravelling and
black topping of the weak subgrade sections and
wet areas, additional retaining structures, slope
stabilization measures, and landslide stabilization.
In sum, the guiding principles are:
• fast track repairs of minor damages and
opening blocked roads in the short term
(within 6 months);
175
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
• speedy and efficient construction or rehabilitation of various components of the road
using the BBB principle, employing relaxed
procurement regulations in the medium
term (within 24 months);
• speedy and effective procurements for longterm work to build back better; and improvement of the reliability of highways,
feeder roads, district roads and village roads
that may not have been affected by earthquakes but would constitute a basic access to
the more damaged and populated areas.
Table 14.2 shows that of the total recovery of
NPR 28,185 million (US$282 million), 68 percent is found in LRN subsector. The SRN and
Air Transport comprise 32 percent and 1 percent of the total recovery costs, respectively.
•
•
•
Short-term Actions (up to 6 months)
This work should be conducted through variation orders to existing contractors of government projects or through the mobilization of local communities to avoid the lead time required
for procurement. The following constitute the
required immediate actions:
• Removal of landslide debris and opening the
roads to traffic.
• Minimum restoration of roads and bridges
including repair of highly vulnerable sections, construction of temporary bailey
bridges securing the lifeline access to communities, and temporary repair work to
avoid secondary disasters.
• Stabilization of road embankment and vulnerable bridges to withstand the monsoon.
• Comprehensive condition surveys and risk
assessments of all damaged roads to plan and
prioritize rehabilitation, reconstruction and
recovery work.
• Repairs of minor damages in all affected
airports.
• Minimum repairs of the TIA runway pavement.
• A total of NPR 1,935 million (US$19.35
million) will be needed for this phase.
Medium-term Recovery
(up to 24 months)
• Rehabilitation of SRN and LRN in accordance with BBB concept.
• Planning and engineering design of large rehabilitation projects (construction period up
176
•
to 24 months) as well as reconstruction projects (to be completed within 60 months).
This would also include the urban development plan in the Kathmandu metropolitan
area on the principle of building back better.
Comprehensive surveys of all existing roads
and bridges to assess their vulnerability to
future earthquakes of similar degree and to
plan and prioritize the necessary retrofitting
work to be accomplished.
Risk mitigation planning with regard to potential landslides on lifeline roads through
risk assessment, hazard mapping and evacuation planning, to be reflected in long-term
recovery work. Procurement and mobilization of contractors for large rehabilitation/
reconstruction projects concerning LRN and
SRN.
Full-fledged rehabilitation of TIA runway
pavement.
A total of NPR 11,521 million (US$115.21
million) will be needed for this phase. The
cost of rehabilitating the runway of TIA is
not included in this cost.
Long-term Recovery (up to 60 months)
Long-term work includes planning, design
and reconstruction of the fully damaged/
rerouting sections of SRN and LRN on the
principle of building back better. The estimated
cost of this phase is NPR 14,729 million
(US$147.29 million).
Implementation Arrangements
Given the high level of investment and the
enormous amount of work to be delivered in a
limited period, especially in the first 24 months,
it becomes necessary to be vigilant about the
increased risk of fraudulent practices, corruption
and serious compromises in the quality of work,
as has been observed in other countries in similar
circumstances. Since government resources are
also finite, careful planning of implementation
arrangements is required to enable efficient
implementation. Creating additional layers of
decision making for close monitoring purposes
usually does more harm than good, delaying the
achievement of intended outputs through the
recovery operations. Direct monitoring by the
office of decision makers at the top is a good
practice for quick and appropriate decision
making and implementation.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
The implementing capacity of DOR (for SRN)
is sound, based on extensive experience in
implementing projects financed by development
partners. However, the capacities of DDCs,
which would be responsible for implementing
local and rural road projects, vary across
districts. DoLIDAR’s staff base is already
overstretched with a large number of scattered
projects in a number of districts. The additional
volume of design and supervision needed for
recovery work is a heavy burden on it. Hence,
it is recommended that additional resources,
including consultants, be allocated to DoLIDAR
for project management. Also, women, Dalits
and other disadvantaged sections most affected
by the earthquake, should participate in suitable
activities related to the reconstruction of rural
roads. In such cases, coordination will be needed
with concerned agencies in accessing crèche
facilities for children to enable women with
children to participate in recovery activities.
In the area of civil aviation, since the recovery
needs are minor, CAAN can issue variation
orders to existing contractors. Additional
burden for these activities is not expected.
Annual budget needs for the five years (FY2014015 to FY 2018-2019) has been assessed in
Tables 14.3A, 14.3B, and 14.3C. The budget
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
requirements for SRN and LRN will be NPR
183 million, NPR 7,744 million, NPR 8,010
million, NPR 6,641 million, and NPR 5,493
million, respectively.
Assessment Methodology
The damages and effects assessment method
has been conducted in accordance with the
guidelines provided by PDNA Secretariat under
the overall leadership of the Nepal Planning
Commission. It is primarily dependent on the
government’s initial assessment data, which has
been refined and re-categorized in accordance
with PDNA Guidelines through selected field
verifications and intensive discussions with the
government and PDNA transport sector team.
However, we need to note here that the estimate
of assessed needs, especially in the medium
and long term, is still rough due to the nature
of rapid assessment, which would be further
refined through detailed surveys at the early
stage of recovery work. The assessment team
included the cost for detailed survey needs in
the short- and medium-terms efforts.
The PDNA transport sector team, led by
ADB, comprised representatives from DOR,
DoLIDAR and CAAN, team members from
DfID, World Bank, JICA, ILO, and UNOPS,
as well as from Switzerland and India.
Table 14.2: Summary of Short, Medium and Long Term Needs (NPR million)
Subsector
Strategic road network (SRN)
Short term
Medium term
Long term
Total needs
amount
Highways and feeder roads
691
1,859
3,442
5,992
Bridges
803
1,873
0
2,676
0
349
0
349
1,494
4,081
3,442
9,017
District road core network
(DRCN)
252
5,951
7,336
13,539
Village road core network
(VRCN)
75
1,489
3,951
5,515
327
7,440
11,287
19,054
Airports
95
0
0
95
CAAN HQ, Academy, Safety,
Fire Building
19
0
0
19
114
0
0
114
1,935
11,521
14,729
28,185
Government buildings
Subtotal
Local road network (LRN)
Subtotal
Civil aviation
Subtotal
Total for transport sector
177
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 14.3A: Budget Plan for SRN (NPR million)
S.N.
Term
Recovery needs
1
Short
term
- Removal of debris,
FY
2014-15
FY
2015-16
FY
2016-17
FY
2017-18
FY
2018-19
FY
2019-20
150
1,344
-
-
-
-
-
1,632
2,040
409
-
-
344
688
1,205
1,205
- Minor repairs to drains, culverts, walls,
bridges
- Minor back cutting & filling
- Temporary bridges/crossing
- Reopening of traffic
- Condition survey and risk assessments
- Procurement method: force
Account, variation, quotation
2
Medium
term
- Designs based on BBB and type of road
- Procurement planning and award of
projects
- Construction
- Procurement method:
Direct Contract, request for quotation,
variation, LT/LIB
3
Long
term
- Designs based on BBB and type of road
- Procurement planning and award of
works
- Construction
-
Procurement method: Contract, NCB,
ICB, LT/LIB
Table 14.3B: Budget Plan for LRN and DRCN (NPR million)
S.N.
Term
Recovery needs
1
Short
term
- Removal of debris,
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
25
227
-
-
-
-
-
2,400
2,951
600
730
730
2,938
- Minor repairs to drains, culverts, walls,
bridges
- Minor back cutting & filling
- Temporary bridges/crossing
- Reopening of traffic
- Condition survey and risk
assessments
- Procurement method: force account,
variation, quotation
2
Medium - Designs based on BBB and type of road
Term
- Procurement planning and award of
projects
-
- Construction
- Procurement Method:
Direct contract, request for quotation,
variation, LT/LIB
3
Long
term
- Designs based on BBB and type of road
- Procurement planning and award of
projects
- Construction
- Procurement method: Contract, NCB, ICB,
LT/LIB
178
2,938
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 14.3C: Budget Plan for LRN and VRCN (NPR million)
S.N.
Term
Recovery
1
Short
term
- Removal of debris,
needs
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
8
67
-
-
-
-
-
600
750
139
-
400
851
1,350
- Minor repairs to drains, culverts, walls, bridges
- Minor back cutting & filling
- Temporary bridges/crossing
- Reopening of traffic
- Condition survey and risk assessments
-Procurement method: force account, variation,
quotation
2
Medium
term
-Designs based on BBB and type of road
-
-Procurement planning and award of projects
-Construction
-Procurement method:
Direct contract, request for quotation, variation, LT/LIB
3
Long
term
- Designs based on BBB and type of road
1,350
- Procurement planning and award of projects
- Construction
- Procurement method: Contract, NCB, ICB, LT/
LIB
179
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
180
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
15. Water, Sanitation and Hygiene
Summary
The PDNA for the water, sanitation and hygiene
(WASH) sector was part of the broader PDNA
conducted for all sectors under the overall leadership of the National Planning Commission
(NPC). It was a joint exercise of the government
and development partners, and has been guided
by the Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD)
with technical support from the Department of
Water Supply and Sewerage (DWSS).
The overall objective of this assessment was to
take stock of the damages and change in economic flows faced by the sector as a result of
the magnitude 7.8 earthquake of 25 April,
and provide estimates of the recovery and
reconstruction needs using the principle of
building back better.
The damages and change in economic flows for
the sector were calculated by DWSS based upon
rapid assessment surveys undertaken by Districts
Divisional- and sub-Divisional Water Supply
and Sanitation Offices in the 14 severely-affected districts. A data quality assurance exercise was
carried out between 23 May and 28 May 2015
by three Sector Assessment Teams led by the Embassy of Finland, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the Rural Water Supply
and Sanitation Fund Development Board. The
teams visited nine of the affected districts. These
field visits not only verified data from the rapid
assessments, they also helped gain additional
insights into the extent of damage to physical
infrastructure and assets, prompting a better understanding of the broader effects of the disaster
on water supply and sanitation services delivery
and governance mechanisms, as well as emerging risks and vulnerabilities. This assessment
also includes estimates for damage and change
in economic flows for an additional 17 districts
that were classified by the government as moderately impacted by the earthquake. In addition,
consultations were held with representatives of
relevant line agencies and development partners
to better understand the effects of the disaster
on the functioning of the water and sanitation
sector and to solicit their suggestions for formulating recovery strategies and needs.
The net total value of damages and change in
economic flows to the water and sanitation sector is estimated at NPR 11.4 billion at pre-disaster prices. Of this, the damage to infrastructure
and physical assets is estimated at NPR 10.5
billion. The total needs for recovery and reconstruction, using the principle of building back
better, is estimated at NPR 18.1 billion, of
which 25 percent is needed for FY 2015-2016,
40 percent for FY 2016-2017 and 35 percent
for FY 2017-2018. The specific needs are described in more detail in the body of this report.
From PDNA assessments it is clear that safe water supply and sanitation needs are accorded the
highest priority by affected populations, in addition to food and shelter. This priority is further
amplified by the risks of diarrheal disease outbreaks among these populations from the imminent monsoon. The following aspects will be
looked at: alignment to approved institutional
systems, and standards and procedures of the
sector; cost-effectiveness that is accountable to
both central and local oversight; gender sensitivity and social equitability of service delivery that
takes a human rights-based approach to reach
those who are left unserved; and, adapting technology and service levels to local contexts. Likewise, it is central to fully engage the inter-cluster
cooperation in this effort.
The WASH sector damage and change in economic flows assessment covers communities that
have been impacted by the earthquake. However, there remains a population of approximately
788,000 (13 percent) in the 14 most-affected
districts that, even prior to the earthquake, had
not been served in any manner. The cost of providing WASH services to this un-served population is approximately NPR 7.9 billion.
181
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Pre-Disaster Context
and Baseline
MoUD is the lead ministry for the WASH sector. Its main operational agency, DWSS, was established in 1972. The agency operates through
a network of five regional offices, 48 divisional
offices and 22 sub-divisional offices, and has a
total staff of 1,660 including 170 professionals. It supports the implementation of rural
and small town water supply schemes. In recent
years, DWSS has taken on sector support and
regulatory roles at the national level.
At the district level, the District WASH Coordinating Committee (DWASHCC) is the main
instrument for the planning, coordination and
monitoring of WASH infrastructure development, including leading the ‘open defecationfree’ (ODF) campaigns together with other local
government agencies. The District Technical Office (DTO), as part of the local authority structure of the Ministry of Federal Affairs and Local
Development (MoFALD), undertakes smaller
WASH projects and supports minor repairs in
accordance with decentralization policies, including water supply. The DTO is guided by the
Department of Local Infrastructure Development and Agriculture Roads (DoLIDAR) that
comes under MoFALD. The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Fund Development Board
(RWSSFDB), which comes under MoUD,
promotes demand-led rural water supply and
sanitation services, using non-governmental and
private organizations as implementing partners.
As of 2015, the Fund Board operates under the
guidance of the respective District Development
Council (DDC) /DWASHCC.
The Kathmandu Valley Water Supply Management Board (KVWSMB) is an autonomous
government body that reports to MoUD. It is
responsible for developing and overseeing service policies, and providing licences to service
providers for the operation and management of
the water supply and sanitation service system
in Kathmandu Valley (comprising the districts
of Kathmandu, Lalitpur, and Bhaktapur). Its
main contracted service provider is Kathmandu
Upatyaka Khanepani Limited (KUKL). The
Nepal Water Supply Corporation (NWSC) pro NMIP/DWSS estimate for water supply coverage is 85 percent and for sanitation is 70 percent
61
182
vides water services to some 21 towns in Nepal,
some of which are located in the affected areas
(such as Banepa and Kavre, among others). Water supply services in the Kathmandu Valley are
being upgraded through the Melamchi Project.
There are several important prevailing sector policies and strategies including the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation National Policy, Strategy and
Sectoral Strategic Action Plan, 2004, that sets a
national goal of universal water supply and sanitation coverage by 2017 and makes provision to
allocate 20 percent of the WASH sector budget
for sanitation and hygiene promotion. There is
also the Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Policy, 2009, and the Sanitation and Hygiene Master
Plan, 2011, that emphasizes the elimination of
open defecation and total behaviour change with
regard to sanitation and hygiene. CommunityLed Total Sanitation (CLTS) is now the main approach to sanitation, with a focus on behaviour
change and a no-subsidy principle.
The WASH Umbrella Act and Comprehensive
WASH policy is being formulated to streamline
the sector, address institutional fragmentation,
overlapping responsibilities and project driven
modalities. Improvements in coordination
among government WASH actors, development partners, UN and (I)NGOs is raising sector quality and facilitating a gradual movement
towards a sector-wide approach. Following the
Second Joint Sector Review (April 2014), which
drew together sector-specific thematic priorities,
the outline of a Sector Development Plan (SDP)
was shared with stakeholders in 2014 for review.
The key objective of SDP is to enhance coherence and harmonization in the sector aligned
to government policies and strategies. At the
same time, the Terms of Reference for the Sector Financing Strategy was approved by the government. However, preparation of the strategy
is expected to be delayed because of the earthquake until the third quarter of 2015.
The 2015 update of the Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP), reports that 92 percent of Nepal’s population has access to improved drinking
water, and 46 percent has access to improved
sanitation61 . The sustainability of drinking wa-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
ter systems, however, remains a priority concern
for the sector. According to DWSS/NMIP data
for 2012, only 25 percent of water schemes were
functioning well; 36 percent need minor repair,
9 percent need major repair, 20 percent need rehabilitation, 9 percent need reconstruction, and
1 percent of the schemes are non-functional.
The underlying causes of the low rates of functionality can be attributed in part to inadequate
management of operation and maintenance.
Just 31.5 percent of schemes have a Water Supply and Sanitation Technician (WSST), only
38 percent of the schemes have registered Water and Sanitation Users Committees (WSUC),
and less than 5 percent have an operation and
maintenance (O&M) fund. Considering the
overall functionality of schemes, effective coverage of water supply is only 40 percent without
even accounting for water quality. Nepal needs
to significantly increase its performance to realize the national target of universal access to basic
water supply by 2017.
The recent Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey
(2014 MICS) and the DWSS database suggest
that there has been a significant acceleration in
sanitation progress both in terms of access to improved sanitation and, very importantly, a substantial decrease in open defecation. So far 21 districts have been declared ODF, and a further 21
districts have reached more than 50 percent ODF
status. The main challenge lies in accelerating the
sanitation movement nationwide, ensuring equitable targeting, and achieving total sanitation and
sustaining sanitation outcomes and behaviour.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
With ongoing rural to urban migration coupled
with newly demarcated municipalities, the urban
population in Nepal today stands at 38 percent,
up from 17 percent in 2014. This requires a
more in-depth planning in new urban areas so as
to provide appropriate levels of water supply and
sanitation and also to assure compliance with the
Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Policy, 2009.
The safety of the drinking water is another issue
that must be addressed. The 2014 MICS included water quality testing and found that 71 percent of drinking water sources and 82 percent of
household stored water were contaminated with
E.coli(≥ 1 cfu/100ml). This requires interventions at the technical and social levels.
Equity of access to water and sanitation services
is an important concern, as access varies significantly according to location, wealth quintile, ethnicity, and level of education. For example, the
2014 MICS finds that access to piped water in
the household or yard touches 55 percent in the
wealthiest population quintile compared with 16
percent in the poorest quintile; open defecation is
practiced by 39 percent households with no education versus 8 percent of households with the
highest level of education, and open defecation is
much more widespread in rural areas (31 percent)
than urban areas (6 percent). Access to improved
drinking water in the Mid-Western Mountain
and Mid-Western Hill regions lags behind other
regions by around 15 percent; with regard to improved sanitation, least progress has been made in
the Eastern Tarai and Central Tarai regions.
Table 15.1: Access to Improved Drinking Water and Sanitation in Nepal
TOTAL WATER
TOTAL SANITATION
Estimate coverage 2015 update
Year
1990
Total
improved
Piped onto
premises
66%
6%
Estimate coverage 2015 update
Other
Other
improved unimproved
60%
27%
Surface
water
7%
Year
1990
Improved
Shared
Other
unimproved
Open
defecation
4%
2%
6%
88%
1995
72%
9%
63%
22%
6%
1995
13%
6%
5%
76%
2000
77%
13%
64%
18%
5%
2000
22%
9%
5%
64%
2005
82%
17%
65%
14%
4%
2005
30%
12%
5%
53%
2010
87%
21%
66%
10%
3%
2010
38%
15%
5%
42%
2015
92%
24%
68%
6%
2%
2015
48%
18%
4%
32%
Source: (JMP Update 2015 – in press)
183
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Post-Disaster Context
Infrastructure and Assets
In the 14 severely-affected districts, the vast majority of the 11,288 water systems are gravity-fed,
with springs or streams as their source. It is estimated that around 1,570 systems have been totally damaged, and a further 3,663 systems have
suffered partial damage that requires repair. More
than 90 percent of the damaged schemes are rural, though this is mainly because urban schemes
are fewer in number and serve larger populations.
The earthquake caused multiple impacts to the
water supply schemes. There are many reports
of water sources either drying up completely or
re-emerging at lower elevations. In a few cases
it has been reported that the source flow has
increased. Problems with water quality have
mostly been due to increased turbidity as a result of damage to intake works or transmission
pipelines. Landslides have caused much of the
damage leading to blockage of intake works, and
carrying away sections of pipeline – even buried
pipeline in some cases. Structural damage to reservoirs and break-pressure tanks has resulted in
leakage; overhead reservoirs and tap stands have
also been damaged and are no longer structurally sound. The nature of damage to both rural
and urban systems is similar.
Access to sanitation has been severely affected by
the earthquake. In urban areas most households
have toilets located within the house, and thus
the collapse of housing has led to a total loss of
sanitation facilities. In rural areas the situation
is slightly different. Although some households
have adjoining toilets or have incorporated them
into the house structure, it is more common for
toilets to be located in the household yard. Nevertheless, there has been substantial loss of toilets in rural areas. One difference, though, is that
toilets built in the yard are more likely to have
their sub-structure intact, and could potentially
be rebuilt. It is estimated that in the 14 severelyaffected districts, approximately 220,000 toilets
have been partially or totally destroyed.
Office buildings of DWSS and other water and
sanitation service providers have also been damaged in many districts. The assessment reports
that six DWSS buildings have completely col184
lapsed, and a further 47 have suffered partial
damage. It has not been possible to assess the
extent of damages and change in economic
flows to equipment such as office furnishings
and computers.
Effects on Production of Goods and
Services and Access to Services
As a consequence of partial or total damage to
water supply systems and sanitation, many socio-economic effects have been observed and assessed. Economic loss is likely to occur through
the non-collection of revenues (water user fee)
by service providers such as KUKL in Kathmandu Valley and by WSUC in rural communities.
Reduced revenue collection is partly due to the
disruption of water supplies but also because of
financial hardship among the affected population, a proportion of whom will be unable to
pay the water user fee.
In both urban and rural areas, households are
generally required to pay for water supply connections and, in urban areas, for water meters
as well. Given the level of destruction to households it is very likely that a new connection fee
will be charged to cover labour and materials
costs. This constitutes a loss of investment by
the householder. Similarly, a large proportion of
households have lost the investment made in the
construction of toilets, especially so in the predominantly rural population. Many households
take out small loans to build their toilets and are
unlikely to see these debts waived even though
they have lost their investment.
In rural areas, communities are expected to contribute to the capital costs of the water system
by providing labour, materials and in some cases
a cash contribution. Regardless of whether the
water system needs repair, reconstruction or relocation, communities will be expected to contribute to the overall investment costs. Where
this involves contributing labour or providing
local materials, it represents an opportunity cost
to the household.
Livelihoods have been impacted through the
disruption to the water supply, including loss
of wages among village water system caretakers,
restaurant businesses, rearing of livestock and
poultry, and cultivation of cash crops.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
In places where serious damage to the water
system has occurred, women have reported that
they are trudging anywhere between one and
three hours to collect water from alternate sources. Water collection is often for both household
members and livestock, and it has a time, energy
and child care cost attached to it. In addition,
women in focus group discussions observed that
disruption to water supply and loss of sanitation
facilities has compromised personal hygiene,
including menstrual hygiene management. The
impact to women’s dignity through loss of access
to sanitation is not yet measurable. Neither is it
feasible to quantify the quality of life impacts on
children, the elderly, infirm and disabled population through the disruption to water supply
and sanitation services.
Effects on Sector Governance Functions and Systems
As mentioned above, there was significant damage to DWSS and WSUC offices, furnishings
and equipment. In some cases the staff has had
to move into temporary office space or operate
from tents. System records, work plans, and
other essential documents have also been lost
in some districts. In order to support the assessment and recovery process, DWSS has temporarily moved its staff from non-affected districts,
resulting in reduced service capacity in those
districts. Given the scale of the disaster, individuals involved in water supply and sanitation
administration, operation and maintenance,
and governance, such as members of WSUC are
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
less available for the recovery process due to the
demands of managing their personal and family needs. In order to deliver on the build back
better principle in the recovery strategy, capacity
building of staff will be required especially in the
area of risk reduction and disaster preparedness.
Increased Risks and Vulnerabilities
The disruption to water supply and sanitation
services is not only inconvenient; it presents several increased risks and vulnerabilities. Foremost
among these is the public health risk and the
prospect of diarrheal disease outbreaks. The difficulties in maintaining good personal hygiene
practices, the reduced access to sanitation and
thereby increase in open defecation, and the deterioration in water quality all combine to substantially increase the risk of faecal-oral disease.
The water-related impacts on livelihoods leaves
people more vulnerable to disease through a reluctance to spend scarce financial resources on
medical treatment, and may subsequently lead
to reduced household productivity. Infants and
young children under the age of five years are
particularly vulnerable to diseases associated
with poor hygiene practices, unsanitary conditions and unsafe drinking water as these further
undermine their health and nutrition status.
Girls and women may face additional risks of violence and sexual abuse due to the lack of access
to gender separated and safe toilets in schools,
or by having to walk long distances to alternate water sources, or when seeking privacy to
defecate in the open.
Damages and Losses
Table 15.2: Estimates of Damages and Change in Economic Flows
Sector
Damages (NPR)
Losses (NPR)
Total effects, (NPR)
Total effects, (US$)
14 severely affected districts
Water systems
5,571,802,656.0
579,875,557.1
6,151,678,213.1
60,310,570.7
Sanitation
1,195,746,350.0
1,195,746,350.0
11,723,003.4
Sub-total
6,767,549,006.0
579,875,557.1
7,347,424,563.1
72,033,574.1
2,822,337,000.0
293,523,048.0
3,115,860,048.0
30,547,647.5
Sanitation
915,835,772.1
-
915,835,772.1
8,978,782.1
Sub-Total
3,738,172,772.1
293,523,048.0
4,031,695,820.1
39,526,429.6
10,505,721,778.1
873,398,605.1
11,379,120,383.3
111,560,003.8
Other 17 affected districts
Water systems
Total
185
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 15.3: Damages and Losses in the 14 Severely-affected Districts
Name of district
Water damages (NPR)
Sanitation damages (NPR)
Losses (NPR)
29,430,000.0
54,500,000.0
12,405,310.4
931,489,475.0
136,250,000.0
16,987,556.3
17,467,250.0
32,700,000.0
24,829,398.4
344,870,039.1
141,700,000.0
32,017,292.6
1,095,678,900.0
114,450,000.0
15,638,835.9
838,114,080.0
125,350,000.0
24,125,740.1
67,852,500.0
68,277,600.0
236,193,564.0
Lalitpur
131,422,857.1
61,590,450.0
63,391,371.3
Bhaktapur
191,295,000.0
93,522,000.0
41,253,844.3
Rasuwa
65,400,000.0
38,150,000.0
3,629,783.9
Nuwakot
426,920,300.0
119,900,000.0
23,260,040.8
Dhading
588,835,817.3
26,781,300.0
28,172,068.9
Makawanpur
426,918,937.5
62,675,000.0
35,248,051.8
Gorkha
416,107,500.0
119,900,000.0
22,722,698.6
5,571,802,656.0
1,195,746,350.0
579,875,557.1
Okhaldhunga
Ramechhap
SIndhuli
Kavre
Dolakha
Sindhupalchowk
Kathmandu
Total of 14 districts
Table 15.4: Damages and Losses in other 17 Moderately-affected Districts
Name of district
Water damages (NPR)
Sanitation damages (NPR)
Losses (NPR)@ 10.4 %
of damages in the 14
districts
Dhankuta
155,652,000.0
41,001,440.0
16,187,808.0
Khotang
212,877,000.0
29,448,393.2
22,139,208.0
85,837,500.0
11,083,582.2
8,927,100.0
Tanahu
262,090,500.0
85,331,740.0
27,257,412.0
Baglung
199,143,000.0
67,015,380.0
20,710,872.0
Gulmi
230,044,500.0
63,767,309.9
23,924,628.0
Parwat
149,929,500.0
38,910,820.0
15,592,668.0
Palpa
254,079,000.0
46,701,028.2
26,424,216.0
Nawalparasi
62,947,500.0
63,437,476.8
6,546,540.0
Myagdi
76,681,500.0
30,222,430.0
7,974,876.0
Chitwan
43,491,000.0
72,128,025.0
4,523,064.0
Lamjung
135,051,000.0
45,832,320.0
14,045,304.0
Kaski
171,675,000.0
136,750,310.0
17,854,200.0
Syangja
252,934,500.0
73,927,244.4
26,305,188.0
Bhojpur
180,831,000.0
28,940,461.4
18,806,424.0
Sankhuwa Sabha
137,340,000.0
30,297,471.1
14,283,360.0
Arghakhanchi
211,732,500.0
51,040,340.0
22,020,180.0
2,822,337,000.0
915,835,772.1
293,523,048.0
Solukhumbu
Total of other 17 districts
186
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Disaster Effects and Impacts
The effects of the earthquake represent a major
setback for the water and sanitation sector. In
particular, achieving the national target of ‘Water and Sanitation for All by 2017’ is now clearly
in doubt. Of particular concern is the impact to
the momentum and success of the Social Movement for Sanitation. As mentioned earlier, sector
monitoring and the 2014 MICS indicate that
the efforts to eliminate open defecation are paying dividends with an accelerated trend in the
number of VDCs being declared ODF. While
concern about lost sanitation facilities has been
widely voiced, households that have lost everything will inevitably place sanitation as a lower
priority over rebuilding their homes and livelihoods. The situation with regard to recovery in
sanitation is complicated partly because of the
no-subsidy principle, which may significantly
delay the resumption of current progress towards
sanitation targets. Equally the national target to
achieve universal access to water supply by 2017
will be extremely difficult to achieve given the
magnitude of damage to water supply schemes.
This may require a reconsideration of the existing zero subsidy policy for sanitation in favour of
some form of household incentives, given their
severe change in economic flows in this regard.
Sector development with regard to policy development, strategy review and institutional reform
will also be set back. Government and development partner stakeholders that have been putting
in place the building blocks for the SDP, have recognised that this process will be delayed but is still
expected to be completed during 2015.
The linkages between livelihoods and water supply have been addressed earlier but prolonged
disruption to water and sanitation services can
be expected to have a disproportionate impact
on women and girls through the social costs incurred through the time and energy spent collecting water, threat of violence and sexual harassment, diminished child care, reduced school
attendance, dignity and self-esteem.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
The recovery and reconstruction strategy is based
on the principles of disaster risk reduction (DRR)
and build back better. It aims to return the sector
to a better and more resilient state than the pre-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
earthquake status as quickly as possible, and enable it to resume progress towards achieving the
national goal of universal access to water supply
and sanitation. The strategy is not only intended
to restore infrastructure and governance but also
to ensure that the sector as a whole is more resilient, that access to water and sanitation services
are more equitable, that services are developed
to a higher standard, and that governance is
strengthened through enhancing sector coordination, professionalism and accountability.
Short-term activities will build on the ongoing
emergency response and run through to the end
of 2015. In this regard, the WASH cluster has
begun planning on how to transition its work
into the normative WASH development structures at national and district levels. Priority activities through end-2015 will include:
• temporary or provisional repairs to water systems;
• rebuilding of toilets and hand-washing facilities through a resumption of the CLTS total
behaviour change approach;
• household water treatment; and
• the restoration and fortification of institutional capacity to coordinate and implement
short-term recovery needs and undertake disaster preparedness measures.
The last point is in reference to the monsoon season, which is widely expected to induce landslides
causing further disruption to water supply. Given
the heightened risk of diarrheal disease outbreaks
due to the reduced access to water supply and
sanitation, it is imperative that short-term activities give priority to the most vulnerable communities. The short-term activities in sanitation and
hygiene will be further informed by the ongoing
Sanitation and Hygiene Assessment at district
level, initiated by the National WASH Sector,
which will further compliment and add depth to
the PDNA WASH assessment of toilet damages.
The following table summarizes the main shortterm activities (June to December 2015), details
of which will be worked out prior to intervention.
Medium to long-term recovery activities will be
implemented from early 2016 through to December 2018. These activities will place more
emphasis on the principles of DRR and build
back better. Activities will include:
187
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 15.5: Short-term Activities in Sanitation and Hygiene (June 2015- December 2015)
Priority recovery
needs
Interventions
Expected outputs
Intended outcomes
Reconstruction of
toilets and handwashing facilities
• Incentivize households to rebuild
• No. of (in thousands) toilets and
• No. of (in thousands)
Provision of
temporary toilets
and hand-washing
facilities
• Build toilets and hand-washing facili-
• No. of (in hundreds) toilets and
toilets and hand-washing facilities
through cash or materials support
ties in temporary shelters for earthquake- and/or monsoon-affected
population
hand-washing facilities re-built
hand-washing facilities built
people have access to sanitation and hand-washing
facilities
•Reduced risk of diarrhoeal
disease outbreak
• Dignity and safety of girls,
women, elderly and infirm
enhanced
Resume CLTS programme
• Follow-up activities to sustain ODF
behaviour
• No. of (in hundreds) VDCs
declared ODF
•Refresher triggering
•As above, and
•Restored sense of normality
and business as usual
• Celebration of national sanitation
week
Restore partiallydamaged water
systems
• Incentivize communities to clean and
repair minor damage to water systems
through cash or materials support
• No. of (in hundreds) water
systems restored to at least
minimal service levels
•Provide technical supervision
Disaster preparedness
• Develop user-friendly operational
manual to address preparedness and
response.
• Identify frequent landslide locations
• No. of (in thousands) people
have access to safe drinking
water
•Reduced water collection
time
• No. of districts prepared to
• No. of (in thousands) people
• No. of rented offices, vehicles,
• No. of water and sanitation
respond to emergency water
supply, sanitation and hygiene
needs
can potentially receive
emergency water supply
and sanitation
•Pre-position emergency supplies
•Establish and train rapid response
teams
Restore governance
capacity
•Provide logistics support to DWSS,
WSUC, among others
• Capacity--building on objectives and
approaches to short-term recovery
Develop build back
better guidelines
• Conduct a consultative review of op-
furnishings, tools, equipment,
and budget
• No. of water/sanitation staff
institutions have capacity to
deliver short-term recovery
outputs
trained
• Guidelines developed for me-
•Key sector actors ‘own’ build
•Undertake consultation with key sec-
•Roles and responsibilities
•Key sector actors adopt
•Undertake consultation with other
• Short-term recovery targets
tions for build back better water and
sanitation services.
dium to long term recovery
back better guidelines
•Advocacy and awareness on risk management and BBB
Establish coordination and monitoring
mechanisms
tor and community actors
sectors such as housing, and health
agreed
results-based management
approach
established
• Monitoring mechanism
developed
Develop detailed
medium to longterm recovery plan
•Undertake consultation with key sector actors
•Task team develops medium to longterm recovery plan
188
• Detailed medium to long-term
recovery plan
•Key sector actors ‘own’ me-
dium to long term recovery
plan
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
• rehabilitation and construction of new water
systems (for resettled communities) as well
as ensuring the compliance of municipalities
with the Urban Water Supply and Sanitation
Policy, 2009;
• building-in resilience qualities, developing
and implementing water safety plans;
• resuming at-scale the Social Movement
for Sanitation;
• implementing urban sludge management
projects;
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
•building community and institutional
capacity in DRM;
•
strengthening
governance,
especially
among service providers;
• establishing guiding principles of equity in
the development of services;
• strengthening sector monitoring; and
•completing the planned sector reform
processes that are embodied in the SDP.
The following table summarizes the priority
medium to long-term recovery activities.
Table 15.6: Priority Medium to Long-term Recovery Activities.
Priority recovery
needs
Social movement
for sanitation
Interventions
•Resume at-scale CLTS programme
Private sector sani- • Stimulate expansion of private sector
tation services
sanitation service providers
Expected outputs
• No. of districts declared ODF
importer of sanitation products
providers
• Implement faecal sludge management
projects
• No. of (in thousands) people
have access to basic sanitation and hand-washing
facilities
• No. of private sector manufacturer/ • No. of (in thousands)
• No. of licensed/registered service
Urban sludge
management
Intended outcomes
• No. of medium-large towns have
faecal sludge management services
• Waste water treatment facilities of
households have higher
sanitation service level
•Affordable and quality
products and services available
•Public health risks and
environmental degradation
mitigated
KUKL rehabilitated and capacity
increased
Water supply
•Rehabilitate damaged water supply
systems
• No. of water systems that incorporate resilience qualities
• Construct new water systems with water • No. of water systems with imconservation features
Water supply
management
• Develop water safety plans
•Train WSUC and other service providers
•Register service providers
Equity guidelines
•Undertake consultation on enhancing
equity in development and delivery of
services
•Task teams develop equity guidelines
•Revise sector monitoring protocol
tems delivering improved
water quality
proved water treatment capacity
• No. of water safety plans
• No. of service providers trained in
O&M, DRR, administration
• No. of service providers registered
and certified
Advocacy/Capacity •Train WSUC and other service providers
building in DRM
in DRM
• No. of resilient water sys-
• No. of service providers
with effective management
capacity
• No. of service providers
brought into regulatory
system
• No. of service providers trained in
• No. of service providers put
•Equity guidelines developed
• Monitoring protocol revised to
•Enhanced equity in access
DRM
include equity indicators
in place DRM measures
to water and sanitation
services
revised to incorporate equity indicators
Sector Development Plan
•Prepare financing strategy
• Finalized Sector Development Plan • Strengthened sector efficiency and effectiveness
• Consult with key sector actors
• Improve Sector Governance – regulation,
compliance with service standards over
extraction and waste water management
189
190
Sanitation
(NPR)
93,522,000.0
38,150,000.0
119,900,000.0
26,781,300.0
62,675,000.0
Bhaktapur
Rasuwa
Nuwakot
Dhading
Makawanpur
1,195,746,350.0
67,852,500.0
5,571,802,656.0
416,107,500.0
426,918,938.0
588,835,817.0
426,920,300.0
65,400,000.0
191,295,000.0
131,422,857.0
41,001,440.0
29,448,393.2
11,083,582.2
85,331,740.0
67,015,380.0
63,767,309.9
38,910,820.0
Dhankuta
Khotang
Solukhumbu
Tanahu
Baglung
Gulmi
Parwat
149,929,500.0
230,044,500.0
199,143,000.0
262,090,500.0
85,837,500.0
212,877,000.0
155,652,000.0
B. Other moderately affected districts (17 districts)
Sub-total of 14
districts
119,900,000.0
61,590,450.0
838,114,080.0
1,095,678,900.0
344,870,039.0
17,467,250.0
931,489,475.0
14,992,950.0
23,004,450.0
19,914,300.0
26,209,050.0
8,583,750.0
21,287,700.0
15,565,200.0
557,180,265.6
41,610,750.0
42,691,893.8
58,883,581.7
42,692,030.0
6,540,000.0
19,129,500.0
13,142,285.7
6,785,250.0
83,811,408.0
109,567,890.0
34,487,003.9
1,746,725.0
93,148,947.5
2,943,000.0
22,489,425.0
34,506,675.0
29,871,450.0
39,313,575.0
12,875,625.0
31,931,550.0
23,347,800.0
835,770,398.4
62,416,125.0
64,037,840.7
88,325,372.6
64,038,045.0
9,810,000.0
28,694,250.0
19,713,428.6
10,177,875.0
125,717,112.0
164,351,835.0
51,730,505.9
2,620,087.5
139,723,421.3
4,414,500.0
Infrastructure
2,832,604.8
4,407,177.1
3,992,375.7
5,211,333.6
1,453,816.2
3,634,880.9
2,949,801.6
101,513,235.1
8,040,112.5
7,343,909.1
9,234,256.8
8,202,304.5
1,553,250.0
4,272,255.0
2,895,199.6
2,041,951.5
14,451,961.2
18,151,933.5
7,298,550.6
752,508.8
16,016,092.1
1,258,950.0
Institutional
capacity development
Build Back Better (NPR)
WSP/ Upgrading water
quality
229,155,299.8
355,730,112.1
319,936,505.7
418,156,198.6
119,834,273.4
299,179,524.1
238,516,241.6
8,262,012,905.1
648,074,487.5
603,667,581.6
772,060,328.0
661,752,679.5
121,453,250.0
336,913,005.0
228,764,220.9
155,135,176.5
1,187,444,561.2
1,502,200,558.5
580,086,099.3
55,286,571.3
1,316,627,935.9
92,546,450.0
Total Cost (NPR)
2,291,553.0
3,557,301.1
3,199,365.1
4,181,562.0
1,198,342.7
2,991,795.2
2,385,162.4
82,620,129.1
6,480,744.9
6,036,675.8
7,720,603.3
6,617,526.8
1,214,532.5
3,369,130.1
2,287,642.2
1,551,351.8
11,874,445.6
15,022,005.6
5,800,861.0
552,865.7
13,166,279.4
925,464.5
Total Cost,
US$
572,888.2
889,325.3
799,841.3
1,045,390.5
299,585.7
747,948.8
596,290.6
20,655,032.3
1,620,186.2
1,509,169.0
1,930,150.8
1,654,381.7
303,633.1
842,282.5
571,910.6
387,837.9
2,968,611.4
3,755,501.4
1,450,215.2
138,216.4
3,291,569.8
231,366.1
916,621.2
1,422,920.4
1,279,746.0
1,672,624.8
479,337.1
1,196,718.1
954,065.0
33,048,051.6
2,592,298.0
2,414,670.3
3,088,241.3
2,647,010.7
485,813.0
1,347,652.0
915,056.9
620,540.7
4,749,778.2
6,008,802.2
2,320,344.4
221,146.3
5,266,511.7
370,185.8
2016/17
(40%)
2,268,260.7
2,112,836.5
2,702,211.1
2,316,134.4
425,086.4
1,179,195.5
800,674.8
542,973.1
4,156,056.0
5,257,702.0
2,030,301.3
193,503.0
4,608,197.8
323,912.6
2017/18
(35%)
802,043.5
1,245,055.4
1,119,777.8
1,463,546.7
419,420.0
1,047,128.3
834,806.8
28,917,045.2
Budget allocation, US$
2015/16
(25%)
l
Gorkha
68,277,600.0
125,350,000.0
Sindhupalchowk
Lalitpur
114,450,000.0
Dolakha
Kathmandu
141,700,000.0
Kavre
32,700,000.0
136,250,000.0
Ramechhap
Sindhuli
54,500,000.0
Okhaldhunga
29,430,000.0
Water Systems
(NPR)
A. Severely affected districts (14 districts)
District/
Buildings
Table 15.7: Recovery and Reconstruction Initiatives and Costs (Based on needs, DRM/BBB and recovery and reconstruction strategy)
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
30,222,430.0
72,128,025.0
45,832,320.0
Myagdi
Chitwan
Lamjung
839,413,965.6
1,259,120,948.4
157,585,826.7
18,106,194,105.0
13,738,491,242.2
Grand Total
(A+B+C+D)
2,111,582,122.1
5,008,586,000.0
12,761,842,518.8
5,008,586,000.0
157,585,826.7
4,499,829,613.7
319,647,557.6
204,487,033.1
258,125,783.3
394,998,295.6
355,970,439.7
217,359,319.8
128,226,060.4
127,677,864.0
144,017,626.5
368,811,478.6
D. Meeting municipal standardsfor new urban
population
1,259,120,948.4
56,072,591.6
3,941,592.6
2,514,562.1
3,146,571.9
4,902,926.2
4,626,379.7
2,713,249.8
1,734,285.4
1,603,559.0
1,895,774.7
4,511,700.4
Total Cost (NPR)
335,765,586.2
839,413,965.6
423,350,550.0
31,759,875.0
20,601,000.0
27,124,650.0
37,940,175.0
25,751,250.0
20,257,650.0
6,523,650.0
11,502,225.0
9,442,125.0
38,111,850.0
Institutional
capacity development
335,765,586.2
8,394,139,656.0
282,233,700.0
21,173,250.0
13,734,000.0
18,083,100.0
25,293,450.0
17,167,500.0
13,505,100.0
4,349,100.0
7,668,150.0
6,294,750.0
25,407,900.0
Infrastructure
Build Back Better (NPR)
WSP/ Upgrading water
quality
C. Recovery in
Melamchi, NWSC,
PID, STUEIP and
STWSSP supported
schemes(@4% total
(A+B)
Total (A+B)
2,111,582,122.1
211,732,500.0
2,822,337,000.0
51,040,340.0
915,835,772.1
Sub-Total for other
17 moderately affected districts
Arghakhanchi
137,340,000.0
30,297,471.1
Sankhuwa Sabha
180,831,000.0
28,940,461.4
Bhojpur
252,934,500.0
73,927,244.4
171,675,000.0
135,051,000.0
43,491,000.0
76,681,500.0
62,947,500.0
254,079,000.0
Water Systems
(NPR)
Syangja
136,750,310.0
63,437,476.8
Nawalparasi
Kaski
46,701,028.2
Sanitation
(NPR)
Palpa
District/
Buildings
181,061,941.1
50,085,860.0
3,357,655.9
127,618,425.2
44,998,296.1
3,196,475.6
2,044,870.3
2,581,257.8
3,949,983.0
3,559,704.4
2,173,593.2
1,282,260.6
1,276,778.6
1,440,176.3
3,688,114.8
Total Cost,
US$
32,744,020.3
839,414.0
31,904,606.3
11,249,574.0
799,118.9
511,217.6
645,314.5
987,495.7
889,926.1
543,398.3
320,565.2
319,194.7
360,044.1
922,028.7
72,424,776.4
20,034,344.0
1,343,062.3
51,047,370.1
17,999,318.5
1,278,590.2
817,948.1
1,032,503.1
1,579,993.2
1,423,881.8
869,437.3
512,904.2
510,711.5
576,070.5
1,475,245.9
2016/17
(40%)
1,118,766.5
715,704.6
903,440.2
1,382,494.0
1,245,896.5
760,757.6
448,791.2
446,872.5
504,061.7
1,290,840.2
2017/18
(35%)
75,893,144.4
30,051,516.0
1,175,179.6
44,666,448.8
15,749,403.6
Budget allocation, US$
2015/16
(25%)
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
191
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Implementation Arrangements
The implementation of the recovery strategy
should be through existing sectoral policies and
institutional arrangements, with coordination
and strategic leadership provided by the MoUD.
Although the recovery strategy is clearly focused
on addressing the needs of affected districts, this
should not be at the cost of slowing the development of water and sanitation services in other
parts of the country. Indeed the principles of
risk reduction and build back better should be
incorporated into sector development nationwide. There should be continued progress towards SDP as this will facilitate a more effective
and efficient delivery of the recovery strategy.
For an effective recovery, it is essential that roles
and responsibilities, jurisdictions and resource
envelopes are clearly established through consultation with key sector actors. This should set
out the underlying principles of the recovery
strategy, including the results-based management approach, monitoring and accountability.
High-level technical and strategic guidance for
implementation should be developed at an early
stage. Dedicated task teams should undertake this
work under the coordination of the Sector Efficiency Improvement Unit (SEIU), with MoUD
providing overall guidance and supervision. The
implementation mechanism should seek to further strengthen the decentralization process and
capacity building of local government institutions to ensure that interventions are sustainable. Similarly, the principle of decision-making
at the lowest possible organization level is critical
to sustainability, meaning that consultation with
communities and their involvement in monitoring must be viewed as an integral part of the
implementation strategy, for example, reshaping/
revising of ongoing or upcoming WASH projects
in affected districts to incorporate rehabilitation,
DRR and BBB components.
Assessment Methodology
The sector assessment was led by DWSS with
significant contributions from development
partners. At a very early stage a comprehensive
assessment format to record the extent of damage to the component parts of water systems
and sanitation was developed and disseminated
across district offices of DWSS. Through a combination of site visits, and information received
192
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
from WSUCs and VDCs, assessment of individual water systems was undertaken. Standard
costs were estimated for repair and reconstruction of both rural and urban systems, and sanitation facilities. Information was collated for each
district and transferred to the central level to
produce an overall summary of damage to assets
and the costs of repair or reconstruction.
To supplement the DWSS assessment, a validation exercise was organized for the purposes
of collecting qualitative information about the
impacts on the affected population as a conse-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
quence of disruption to water supply and sanitation services, and also for quality assurance.
Field missions were undertaken in nine districts.
Site visits were made to visually inspect water
systems and sanitation facilities, consultations
with community members took place and focus group discussions with women were held
to better understand the gender dimensions of
the disaster. Stakeholder meetings took place at
district headquarters and with DWSS and other
water and sanitation actors to discuss views on
DRR and approaches and needs to actualize the
principle of build back better.
193
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
194
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
CROSS-CUTTING
SECTORS
Environment and Forestry
Employment and Livelihoods
Gender Equality and Social Inclusion
Social Protection
Governance
Disaster Risk Reduction
195
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
196
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
16. Environment and Forestry
Summary
The damages and losses to the environment
and forests of Nepal comprise mainly of three
types: (i) destruction of forests, including Protected Areas (PAs); (ii) destruction of previously
installed environmentally-friendly technologies;
and (ii) destruction of office buildings, furniture, equipment and other assets of government
institutions and community-based natural resource management institutions. The largest loss
in terms of value in the sector is from loss of
ecosystem services. Other losses comprise increased costs of managing solid and hazardous
waste and reducing pollution from brick manufacturing to meet the post-earthquake demand
for reconstruction.
Major impacts include reduced capacity for
forest and environment governance by the
government and local communities in the affected districts. Beyond that, the earthquakes
have enhanced the magnitude of several existing environmental hazards such as avalanches,
floods, especially Glacial Lake Outburst Floods
(GLOF), and landslides.
The total damages in the forestry sector are estimated to be NPR 32,960.3 million. Losses are
estimated at NPR 1,061 million (excluding loss
of ecosystem valued at NPR 34,021.3 million).
The total cost of recovery and reconstruction is
estimated at NPR 25,197 million. Of this, estimated reconstruction cost is NPR 6,773 million
and recovery cost is NPR 18,424 million.
The overall aim of the reconstruction and recovery programme for the sector is to increase
the resilience of ecosystems, the environment
and vulnerable communities to future anthropogenic and natural shocks from earthquakes
and climate change by enhancing their management, and working with other sectors to promote sound development and reduce unsustainable impacts in order to build back better, safer
and greener.
62
Reconstruction activities include reconstruction of government and community offices and
buildings, reforestation, afforestation to restore
damaged forest areas, and re-installation of renewable energy technologies such as improved
cooking stoves (ICS) and biogas. Recovery activities include implementing measures and building capacities to address pressures and threats to
forests and ecosystems, including PAs.
Support will be provided to Community Forestry
User Groups (CFUGs) to rehabilitate and restore
their forests, including short-term targeted livelihood support to help rebuild environmental
incomes from forest and natural resources. Recovery activities will also provide for sound management of solid and hazardous waste, including
safe collection and disposal. Management of large
amounts of debris and rubble and measures to reduce pollution from the anticipated rise in brick
production to meet post-earthquake demand are
other important recovery activities. Policy adjustments and incentives to promote climate smart,
environment friendly (green) technology in construction and other sectors involved in the recovery will be prioritized as well.
As a cross-cutting issue, recommendations pertaining to environment and forestry have been
included in other sector reports. These recommendations, which encompass nine principles,
are mentioned in Box 16.1 below.
Pre-Disaster Context
and Baseline
Forests
Forests cover about 5.83 million hectares (39.6
percent) of the country’s total land area, including 2.15 million hectares of shrub lands. The
main drivers of deforestation are illegal logging,
fuelwood consumption, encroachments and
road construction.62 In addition to government
managed forests, community forestry (CF) programmes are a major success in sustaining for-
(Nepal’s Readiness Preparation Proposal REDD 2010 – 2013, Ministry of Forest and Soil Conservation, 2010; Understanding drivers and causes of deforestation and forest
degradation in Nepal: potential policies and measures for REDD+; Ministry of Forest and Soil Conservation, 2014)
197
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Box 16.1: Principles for Green, Resilient Recovery and Reconstruction
1.Ensure that building design and
construction is environmentally
sustainable, appropriate to the
region, and will withstand future
disasters.
2.Enforce environmental impact
assessment/initial environmental
examination regulations during
reconstruction in order to avoid
future disasters; and ensure enforcement.
3.Ensure that fuelwood collection
complies with existing forest
management plans and promote
alternative energy and energy
efficient technologies to reduce
pressure on forest energy.
4.Recycle and reuse debris as much
as possible, and ensure that solid
waste disposal during the reconstruction phase is managed using
environmentally sound practices,
including the introduction of new
systems.
5. Design water and sanitation
interventions to reflect post-earthquake changes in water resources,
future climate change scenarios,
and awareness of integrated water
resource management (IWRM).
6. Conduct land use planning,
including zoning, before finalizing
the location of resettlement areas
to minimize risks from landslides
and floods; and ensure adequate
land and natural resources to meet
community needs while minimizing environmental impacts.
ests. The 31 earthquake-affected districts contain around 41 percent (2,393,535 hectares) of
all forest area. Around 48 percent of this area is
community forests managed by 11,554 CFUGs
and involve more than 55 percent of the households in these districts. Another 48 percent is
government managed forests, including Protected Areas (PAs). The rest includes leasehold
forests (LHF) (0.73 percent), private forests and
other categories (Table 16.1).
Biodiversity and Protected Areas
Nepal occupies only 0.1 percent of global land
area but harbours 3.2 percent and 1.1 percent of
the world’s known flora and fauna, with many
endemic and threatened species. With its great
altitudinal range, it contains a wide variety of
ecosystems and habitat types. Protected areas are
cornerstones of biodiversity conservation, covering 23.23 percent of the country and protecting
flagship species such as tiger, rhino, red panda
and snow leopard. Four national parks (Sagarmatha National Park is a world heritage site)
and three conservation areas covering around
1,598,800 hectares have been affected by the
earthquakes. There are a total of 1,156 lakes
in the 31 districts including two Ramsar sites
located in Langtang and Sagarmatha national
parks. Some major river systems and hydrologi-
cal dams are also situated in the region. In addition, three buffer zones adjacent to PAs have
been affected, covering 152,500 hectares.
Landslides and Glacial Lakes
Intense monsoon rainfall triggers floods, landslides, debris flow and other hazards. Landslides
cause considerable soil erosion and sedimentation, polluting waters and blocking waterways as
well as destroying agricultural fields and threatening settlements. The recent extensive road
opening with poorly designed and constructed
roads has resulted in landslides in many parts
of the mid-hills and mountains. More intense
rainfall due to increased climate variability may
also be a contributing factor.
An inventory of glaciers and glacial lakes by
ICIMOD (in 1999; repeated in 2009) identified as many as 3,252 glaciers in Nepal.
As glaciers melt and retreat due to climate
change, glacial lakes form and rapidly fill up
behind natural moraine or ice dams. These
dams can breach suddenly, leading to downstream floods.63 The National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) defined six of these
lakes as the most critical.64 Three are located
in the earthquake-affected areas: Tsho Rolpa,
Imja and Thulagi lakes.
Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in Nepal, ICIMOD, 2011
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to Climate Change, Ministry of Environment, 2010
63
64
198
7.Ensure that reconstruction of
roads and hydro power take the
opportunity to build back safer
and greener and take account of
climate variability.
8.Prioritize support for rapidly
restoring livelihoods in order to
take pressure off forests and biodiversity; in the longer term ensure
livelihood restoration projects
reflect the principles of resilient
development.
9. Build capacity for green recovery
and reconstruction, and ensure
consultation/coordination with
relevant stakeholders in recovery
and reconstruction.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Hazardous Substances and Waste
Management
Management of solid waste is a growing concern
in Nepal, particularly in urban centres. Application of modern waste management techniques,
such as source separated door-to-door collection systems, material recovery and recycling
facilities, sanitary landfilling, and private sector
participation are limited in most municipalities.
Poor management of healthcare waste (HCW)
exposes healthcare workers, waste handlers,
the community, livestock and wildlife to infections, toxic effects and injuries. Most healthcare
facilities do not implement safe practices such
as onsite safe and separate collection, transport,
storage, treatment and final disposal in secure
landfill sites; most healthcare waste is dumped
together with other wastes.
Air Pollution
The predominant source of air pollution in the
Kathmandu Valley is from the operation of a
large number of polluting and inefficient brick
kilns. There are 429 officially registered brick
kilns in Nepal while the Federation of Nepalese Brick Industries (FNBI) estimates more than
700 in total, with 103 being operated within
the Kathmandu Valley. Coal is the major fuel
for brick firing; annual coal consumption by
the sector is estimated at 449,358 tonnes. With
anticipated increase in demand for bricks for reconstruction of damaged buildings and houses,
rise in air pollution is a concern.
Existing Arrangements and Performance of Environmental and
Forestry Governance
Nepal has good environmental and forestry
policies and legislation. The implementation of
these policies, however, requires improvement.
In many cases there is inadequate capacity for
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
implementation and monitoring, and penalties
for transgressions are too low. There is lack of
citizen awareness about development and environment and application of environmental impact assessment tools is currently limited. Community-based forest governance and institutions
is very strong while institutional capacity within
concerned government institutions requires
further strengthening. The Ministry of Science,
Technology and Environment (MoSTE) is mandated to ensure environmental safeguards, maintain environmental quality and promote renewable energy. It has developed several guidelines
and environmental standards for various sectors.
These need to be enforced properly. The mandate for the management and governance of
forests and PAs is with the Ministry of Forest
and Soil Conservation (MoFSC). Community
forests are managed locally by CFUGs; buffer
zone management councils manage forests in
the buffer zones; and leasehold forestry groups
manage degraded and marginalized forestlands
to restore them.
Disaster Effects
Effects on Infrastructure and Assets
Damage to Forest Area
Several landslides, crevices, soil liquefactions
and local floods following the earthquakes resulted in large-scale destruction of forest areas.
To ascertain forest loss, The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) carried out a systematic analysis of pre- and post-earthquake satellite
imagery. Based on this, a forest loss rate of 2.2
percent was estimated for six earthquake-affected districts. The impacts on forests are largely expected to be similar in 14 other severely-affected
districts (with the exception of Kathmandu,
Bhaktapur and Lalitpur which have very limited
forest cover). Applied to the baseline forest area,
Table 16.1: Baseline Forest Data in the 31 Earthquake-affected Districts
Districts
Forest
area
Govt. M
forest
(ha)
Households in
district
(ha)
(ha)
Most affected
2,274,882
1,237,264
1,101,523
Hit with
heavy loss
1,042,260
319,299
Moderate
losses
783,734
1,157,381
Slightly
affected
districts
Total
Total
area
5,258,257
CFUGs
LHFs
No
Area
(ha)
HHs
No
Area
(ha )
HHs
683,113
5,340
400,208
549,339
3,421
17,817
30,348
393,623
233,758
1,440
146,987
178,611
1,259
4,410
10,147
416,007
334,072
202,988
2,740
110,540
293,107
58
610
660
314,620
564,317
280,173
2,034
172,850
215,429
324
1,998
2,976
2,287,190 2,393,535
1,400,032
11,554
830,585
1,236,486
5,062
24,835
44,131
199
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
the total damage and forest loss is estimated at
23,375 hectares.
The value of damages and losses as a result of
destruction of these forests has been computed
using an economic valuation study of the goods
and services of forests carried out by MoFSC in
2005.65 The direct use values have been taken
as damages, and total damages of NPR 29,258.7
million is estimated. Effects on Biodiversity and Protected Areas
Seven PAs were affected by the earthquakes.
Among these were Sagarmantha National Park,
a sacred landscape and world heritage site, as well
as two Ramsar sites (Gosaikunda and Gokyo).
These PAs provide refuge to several endangered
fauna of global significance such as red panda,
snow leopard and musk deer. Damages to the
habitats of these key species are expected. In
addition, earthquake impacts in adjacent areas
and on local communities will have a significant
bearing on management of PAs. Pressures on PA
resources are likely to increase. Localized illicit
activities, including poaching of wildlife and illegal wildlife trade, may also likely increase as
several security posts are damaged and vigilance
and monitoring activities hampered.
In addition, there were reports of extensive
damage to eco-tourism infrastructure, including
walking trails, bridges and hotels. Access to several nature-based tourism sites has been disrupted. This will significantly impact income from
tourism – endangering the financial sustainability of the PAs and severely affecting the income
of local communities and private business operators in the area. Several PAs (e.g., Sagarmantha National Park and Annapurna Conservation
Area (ACA) are world-renowned nature tourist
destinations. Nature tourism contributes substantial revenue to the national economy. For
example, during FY 2013-2014, of the 797,616
tourists visiting Nepal, nearly 551,680 tourists
visited different PAs. Thus, tourists visiting PAs
accounted for close to 70 percent of all tourists
visiting the country. It is thereby pertinent that
recovery efforts under the tourism sector integrate measures to revitalize nature tourism in
PAs as a driver of economic growth in Nepal
so as to continue to make positive contributions
towards PA sustainability in the long run.
There was no damage reported to the wetlands.
However, sedimentation, landslides and other
changes are likely to have an impact on the
wetlands. These may include eutrophication
of lakes and damage to the habitat of aquatic
flora and fauna, which will ultimately impact
livelihoods of the poor, marginalized and other
rural communities. Further, if landslides block
the Trishuli/Narayani or Koshi rivers during the
monsoon season and result in large floods, this
will impact endangered wildlife species and their
habitats downstream in Chitwan National Park
and Koshi Tappu Wildlife Reserve.
Damage to Office Buildings, Equipment
and Furniture
Analysis of damage to government and community-based institutions reveals that of the 894
government office buildings (district and sector/
field level offices) of MoFSC in the 31 earthquake-affected districts, 569 have reported damages with severe damage to office equipment
and furniture. A total of 740 CFUGs reported
destruction of their office buildings while a further 407 CFUGs reported partial damage; 222
CFUGs reported cracks and damage. Almost all
the affected CFUGs reported loss of important
official documents such as Forest Operational
Plans and files. Total damages of around NPR
1,263.3 million are estimated for government
buildings and equipment, and NPR 780 million for CFUG buildings and equipment.
Damage to Environment friendly Technologies
Renewable Energy Technology solutions such as
improved cooking stoves (ICS) and biogas installations promoted in the country through the
Alternative Energy Promotion Center (AEPC)
has led to improvements in household health
and livelihood conditions, while also delivering
significant positive environmental outcomes.
For example, ICS installations can lead to energy savings of up to 80 percent and significant
reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,
indoor pollution and deforestation. A rapid
assessment by AEPC and its partner network
reveals that 146,767 ICS units, 16,721 domestic biogas installations and 70,000 solar installations have been destroyed. These need to be
replaced to prevent environmental impacts, including CO2 emissions. The value of damages
estimated at NPR 1,573.3 million has been in-
Economic Valuation of Ecological Goods and Services (ESE), Ministry of Forest and Soil Conservation 2005
65
200
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
corporated under the housing sector. The loss to
environment and forests as a result is estimated
at NPR 181.4 million.
Effects on Production of Goods and
Services and Access to Services
Loss of Ecosystem Goods and Services
Natural forest ecosystems, including wetlands,
provide several important ecosystem services that
people benefit from. In addition to timber and
firewood, non-timber forest products (NTFPs)
such as fruits, flowers, bark, dyes, fibers, gums
and resins, and medicinal and aromatic plants
(MAPs) are important products. Most NTFPs,
including MAPs, have a higher commercial value than those of wood products. Income from
environmental resources is particularly important for the rural poor. It can decrease rural income inequalities and serve to reduce the prevalence, depth and severity of poverty. In addition,
forests provide many other ecosystem services,
including absorbing carbon dioxide and buffering from floods and landslides. They maintain
hydrological processes and conserve soil and water, enable nutrient cycling and host pollinators.
Ecosystem services from forests are particularly
important for rural communities, especially indigenous people, poor men and women, and
other forest dependent communities. Using the
2005 MoFSC study, the total loss of ecosystem
services is estimated at NPR 34,715.3 million.
Increased Generation and Management Demands for Solid and Hazardous Waste
The earthquakes have significantly worsened
waste management, particularly in camp sites
where affected communities have been residing. Whereas household waste generation was
somehow managed and most rural waste is
recycled or composted, the current concentration of people in camps has led to considerable
generation of waste without a proper waste
management system in place. Waste generation
per camp is estimated to be around 37.66 kilograms, on average, per day. Waste collection
is done using small bins with very little segregation at source and in some cases no effort is
made to collect waste. Only around 40 percent
of the camps have proper sanitation facilities;
the majority are at best being served through
pit latrines. Drinking water is available in half
the camps while the supply of bottled water has
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
increased manifold, resulting in considerable
plastic waste. MoSTE has banned the production, use, sale and transportation of plastic bags
within Kathmandu and initiated promotion
of environment friendly alternative bags made
of cloth, fibre and paper. However, following
the earthquakes, the increased use of plastics,
including plastic bags, is of concern.
Disaster Impacts
Need for Debris and Rubble Management
With almost 750,000 buildings either completely or partially damaged, the earthquakes
have generated a large amount of rubble. The
total estimated volume of rubble is 18.854 million cubic metres. Of this, estimates for rubble
that can be recycled or reused range between
60 percent and 80 percent. The remaining
debris and rubble will need to be transported
and disposed safely. Such a large amount of debris and rubble poses a threat to community
health in several ways. Building waste from 31
affected districts is expected to contain up to
2.7 million litres of paint. Lead in paint may
escape into the environment through paint
dust and contaminate soil, which can lead to
lead poisoning. Similarly, mercury from damaged buildings (e.g., in light bulbs and hospital
equipment) may be contaminating the environment. Other hazardous materials include
asbestos in roofing and hazardous chemicals
in electronic waste. All potentially hazardous
waste, e.g. healthcare waste, asbestos waste and
building rubble contaminated with toxic lead
paint and mercury, as well as electrical and
electronic items, should be treated separately.
Specifically, no burning technology should
be used for this waste management. Environmentally-sound health-care waste management
practices need to be promoted and scaled up, as
part of building back better.
Increased Pollution from Brick Manufacture
According to the calculations by the housing
sector, more than a billion bricks will be required for r
econstruction. Manufacture
of these many bricks will require coal imports of
1.58 million tonnes, which will lead to around
39,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions. In addition,
brick firing to generate the required bricks will
emit around 2,800 tonnes of suspended particulate matter. The total cost of air pollution for
201
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
the 1.12 billion bricks that will be required for
reconstruction is calculated to be around NPR
737 million. In addition, brick making will also
deplete and pollute top soil in areas around the
brick kilns, affecting agricultural productivity
and health of local communities. Chimneys of
many brick kilns were damaged. Production of
a large number of bricks in brick kilns without
adequate pollution control mechanisms such as
chimneys may significantly increase air pollution and lead to health impacts. Mercury emission from burning coal in brick kilns will also
impact human health and the environment.
bio-engineering techniques are required to reduce this risk. With millions of people affected
and their houses damaged, there is tremendous
pressure on forests for land and timber to build
temporary shelters. Data from five District Forest Offices (DFOs) reveal that 88 hectares of
forests have been encroached upon while nearly
206 hectares have already been illegally felled.
This trend is expected to increase in future and
will, if not monitored, lead to significant land
use changes and forest area conversions.
Increased Risks and Vulnerabilities
Many women and socially excluded groups dependent on natural resources have been particularly
affected by the earthquakes. There is need to build
women’s capacity for active participation in community forests, especially in light of out-migration
of men. Forests and conservation areas are key
sources of livelihood building for local communities, especially of rural women, indigenous peoples,
Dalits, poor men and women, and other people
living around forests. Loss of forests due to landslides triggered by the earthquakes means loss of
livelihood assets for people living in earthquake-affected districts. In addition, with the loss of nearby
forests, women, responsible for taking care of livestock, will have to spend more time in collecting
animal feed from forests that are further away. Nevertheless, forests also provide food and income for
households in times of stress and they will become
an important resource for coping with food shortages. In addition, community forest users in 14 affected districts have reported earthquake damage
to water resources. Likewise, many energy efficient
and alternative energy installations have been damaged.This has direct implications for women and
girls, exacerbating their workloads since they now
have to collect more water and firewood from forests. The increased workload for women will have
a negative impact on their capacity to engage in
community leadership, natural resource management and earthquake recovery in their households,
communities and forests.
Increased Risks from GLOF and Landslides
The most significant environmental hazards is
the threat of GLOF. While no major damage has
been reported to moraine dams of the three largest and dangerous lakes, small cracks have been
observed on the moraine dam of the Tsho Rolpa
Lake. Previously constructed man-made channels
to siphon out water may be blocked or damaged.
A recent outburst following the earthquakes was
reported in one of the supra glacial lakes located
above Imja Lake, causing a temporary increase in
water flow in the river. These indicate serious risks
of GLOF in future. This risk may further be exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. Close
monitoring of these lakes, including further study
on the effects of the earthquakes on the stability of the moraine dam, is required. In addition,
equipment and infrastructure such as gauge readers (at Tsho Rolpa), the meteorological stations
at Langtang and Beding, and the base house at
Kyangjing were destroyed.
More than 25 hydro-meteorological stations under the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology have also been damaged. Likewise, field
reports and analysis of post-earthquake GIS/
remote sensing imagery reveal that there were
numerous landslides. Numerous cracks have
formed in the hillsides. In the sloping hillsides,
disturbances to soil structure and stability postearthquake will increase the risks of fresh landslide significantly, in particular during the upcoming monsoon season. Landslides can cause
huge losses to lives and property. Monitoring
and geotechnical assessment together with measures such as watershed management, including
afforestation, land and soil conservation, and
202
Impacts on Gender and
Social Inclusion
Impacts on Sector Governance Functions and Systems
Forest and Environmental Governance Performance and Issues
The earthquakes greatly reduced the capacity of
government and local communities in the af-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
fected districts, affecting monitoring and stewardship of PAs, wildlife, forests and natural resources. A large number of CFUG members and
executive members were directly affected by the
disaster. Tragically, at least 1536 CFUG members (731 male, 805 female) and around 150
CFUG executive members (69 male, 81 female)
died in the earthquakes.
Some villages have been completely destroyed.
In addition, office buildings, equipment and
furniture of both government and community
based natural resource management institutions
were damaged in many villages. The loss of life
and damage to property and official documents
directly hampers the performance of both government and community institutions in delivering services and enforcing laws. Consequently,
management of government and community
managed forests, and PAs will be greatly affected
at a time when demand for fuel, food and shelter from forests is likely to increase. This will
increase the risk of unsustainable and illegal
harvesting of forest produce, poaching of wildlife and exploitation of remaining community
owned resources critical to their livelihood in
the guise of recovery and reconstruction. The
possible translocation of few villages will further
worsen community-based forest governance and
resource stewardship.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
The total estimated reconstruction and recovery needs for the environment and forestry sector
is NPR 25,197 million. This estimate is based on
wide consultations among sector experts, representatives of the two ministries, NGOs and development partners. Of this, the total estimated
cost of reconstruction is NPR 6,773 million. The
reconstruction activities will build back the environment and forestry infrastructure and assets that
were damaged. The total recovery costs estimated
is NPR 18,424 million.
The overall aim of the reconstruction and recovery programme for the environment and forestry
sector is to increase the resilience of ecosystems,
the environment and vulnerable communities to
future anthropogenic and natural shocks from
earthquakes and climate change by enhancing
their management, and working with other sectors to promote sound development and reduce
unsustainable impacts in order to build back bet-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Box 16.2: The case of Langtang Village
Langtang village in the Langtang National Park was hit hard by
the earthquake of 25 April 2015. An avalanche of ice and rocks
completely buried the village killing about 200 of its inhabitants
and leaving about 500 homeless. In the incident, four executive
committee members of Langtang National Park Buffer Zone
User Committee - including its chairman Mr. Chhowang Thiley
Tamang - lost their lives. In the same incident, former chairperson of Buffer Zone Management Committee, Tenzing Pasang
Tamang, also died. The loss of Mr. Thiley Tamang, an emerging
conservation leader from Langtang Valley, has created a big gap.
ter, safer and greener. Planned investments under
the sector will be targetted to recover the losses
by creating ‘green jobs’ under the broader recovery strategy and promoting sustainable solutions
to address the key emerging issues of waste and
air pollution based on the principles of reuse and
recycle. The recovery activities will augment actions to carefully manage municipal and hazardous substances and waste, making sensible use of
debris and other proven green substitutes during
reconstruction. These will contribute to building
capacities, tools and skills of key government,
community and private sectors institutions to
identify, monitor and manage risks to natural
ecosystems and vulnerable populations.
Natural hazards such as floods, including GLOF,
avalanches, drought and storms, are exacerbated
by climate change, which is expected to increase
the severity and frequency of these hazards. They
pose a serious threat to poor farmers and rural
communities who live in remote, marginal,
mountain and hill areas with limited resources,
communications and transportation networks.
In addition, the natural resources that these
people depend on to cope with the impacts of
such hazards are also highly climate sensitive
– agriculture, forest products, water resources,
etc. Given this, future recovery investments will
need to explore ways to integrate climate risks
and strengthen the resiliency of ecosystems and
communities, including using the potential of
Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EBA) options
and nature-based mitigation measures.
The reconstruction and recovery activities have
been designed to address the short-, mediumand long-term needs of the sector. In the short
203
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 16. 2: Summary Estimates of Damages and Losses
SN
Themes
Baseline
Unit
Damages NPR
Losses NPR
Total effect (damages
+ losses)
Public sector
1
2
Forestry related infrastructure
2,043,318,400
GON offices
894
GON equipment and furniture
n/a
CFUG offices
11,520
CFUG equipment and furniture
n/a
No.
No.
Impact on forestry, watershed, biodiversity, NTFP
Forest area loss
1,101,523
Hectare
Encroachment and illicit felling
NFTP collection loss
3
4,618,031
kg
Environment
Air pollution due to brick industry
2,043,318,400
1,257,650,400
0
1,257,650,400
5,718,000
0
5,718,000
694,630,000
0
694,630,000
85,320,000
0
85,320,000
29,343,674,341
142,601,520
29,486,275,861
29,258,769,601
0*1
29,258,769,601
0
104,339,520
104,339,520
84,904,740
38,262,000
123,166,740
1,573,332,200
918,404,300
2,491,736,500
0
737,000,000
737,000,000
Private sector
3
Improved cooking stove
1,237,353
No.
1,138,512,200
157,187,100
1,295,699,300
Biogas
79,623
No.
434,820,000
24,217,200
459,037,200
Total NPR
32,960,324,941
1,061,005,820
34,021,330,761
Total US$
329,603,249
10,610,058
340,213,308
Notes:
•
Loss in ecosystem services such as forest contribution in controlling soil erosion and loss of soil nutrient, carbon sequestration and environmental amelioration is estimated to be
NPR 34,715 million which is intangible and not included in the estimates.
•
The recovery cost for forest damage and ecosystem restoration is estimated to be lower than the total damages and losses incurred. It is assumed, within a planned 10 year period,
that about 50 percent of the losses will either be restored naturally or will not be restored in some cases.
•
Although the ICS and biogas plant damages have been categorized in the private sector, the recovery cost is only from government subsidy, and potential 50 percent additional cost
will be incurred by the private owner.
term, priority is given to respond to immediate and urgent reconstruction needs. In the
medium term, measures to restore ecosystem
functionality, ensure safe management and use
of environmental hazards, including solid waste
management, and promotion of sustainable
practices will be prioritized. Long-term activities are geared towards improving the resilience
and sustainability of ecosystems and the sound
management of environment hazards and risks.
It is strongly recommended that during reconstruction and recovery, the important principles
given in Box 16.1 are applied by all sectors.
Government-managed Forests and
Watershed Management
Reconstruction
In the short term, reconstruction activities that
include nursery and plantations, and repair
and maintenance of damaged renewable energy schemes will be implemented. Short-term
interventions will also include geo-stability assessments of cracked and disturbed land masses
204
in selected areas to identify the threats of landslides and help implement measures that reduces
these risks. Damage analysis indicates that large
forest areas were destroyed by the earthquakes.
Removal and salvage operations in the damaged
forests and supply of timber and firewood resulting from the salvage operations to the market will be undertaken as short-term priorities.
Measures to enhance surveillance and monitoring of incidences of forest land encroachments
will also be implemented in the short term.
Recovery
Building institutional capacities to address pressures and threats to forests more systematically
will be done in the medium term. Measures to
promote and implement bio-engineering and
soil conservation/agro-forestry will be implemented in the short term to reduce threats of
landslides. Integrated watershed management
approaches will be promoted in the medium to
long term. Watersheds will be restored with the
aim of promoting water infiltration, regulating
stream flows, protecting against mass movement
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
and buffering against climate related hazards.
In this regard, sustainable land management
practices in all forms of land uses will be encouraged through effective implementation of land
use policies for sustainable landscape management that balances competing land uses while
reducing negative impacts on forests and ecosystems. Roles for various stakeholders will also be
explored, including creating opportunities for
private sector investments in sustainable forestry
and forest product management, and ensuring
technologies for improved, seasoned or treated
wood products for reconstruction of building
and infrastructure are adopted. Activities that
will ensure the restoration of ecological functions and ecosystem services will be implemented in the medium term and long term. In the
long term, this recovery programme, by employing proven approaches of EBA and mitigation,
should also lead to improvements in sustainable
forest management that increase the resilience
of forest landscapes and ecosystems to climate
change and other threats.
Community Forests
Reconstruction
Immediate support to restore the services provided by CFUGs and their federated bodies at
district and national levels will be needed to
deal with physical and material losses. In the
short term, direct institutional support and
cash transfers to support livelihoods and replace capacities to manage forests will be critical. CFUGs will also require support to carry
out detailed assessments to identify and account
for losses. Technical support will be required to
plan and implement measures to restore community forests. These may include reforestation
or creating conditions for expedited regeneration. Livelihood support is critical both in the
short term and medium term. These can include
sustainable alternative livelihood development
to reduce pressure on forests.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
to restore damaged ICS and biogas installations
to reduce pressure on forests. Many women
(52.17 percent) and men (43.83 percent) in the
14 most-affected districts actively participate in
community forestry programmes both as users
and managers of forest products. Their participation in forestry management will be critical
for sustainable management of these resources
and will be proactively ensured. In addition,
most of the high hill districts affected are rich
in forest/herbal products. Skills development
and training for women in sustainable harvesting of NTFPs and marketing forest products to
expand their livelihood base will also be considered as part of the recovery strategy. Similarly,
participation of ethnic minorities who depend
the most on these resources will be critical for
their livelihoods as well as sustainable management of forest resources.
Timber Availability and Production
Reconstruction
Given the huge number of private and public
houses that were damaged, MoFSC is concerned
about how to source timber and other construction material required for reconstruction. Initial
assessment of inventory data and analysis of
growing stock confirms the availability of timber
volume totalling 18,552,263 cubic feet – this
includes 2,477,163 cubic feet from the Tarai
region and 16,075,100 cft cubic feet from the
24 earthquake-hit districts. These will be made
available for reconstruction of both public and
private buildings. Where possible, use of locally
available timber and poles from community
forests and/or government managed forests will
be encouraged. To ease the timber harvest and
distribution process, existing policy and regulatory provisions will require revision, such as relaxing legal restrictions on harvest and transport
of timber including the overall ban on timber
harvest during the period 15 June to 15 October
(by the Forest Regulations of 1995).
Biodiversity and Protected Areas
Recovery
In the long term, community capacity to manage forests to increase resilience of community
forests will be supported. Such an aspiration
may be incorporated into the revised management plans of community forests under the
medium term. Support should also be provided
Recovery
Short-term activities may include identification
of impacts of the earthquakes on critical habitats and key species and future risks (e.g., flooding in downstream PAs). To deter violations of
rules and to control illegal wildlife poaching and
205
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
trade, regular patrolling, and anti-poaching and
monitoring activities will be given priority in the
short term. In the medium term, implementation of species and habitat recovery that are integrated into revised PA management plans will
be implemented, while in the long term the aim
will be to improve the resilience of PAs, biodiversity and ecosystems to anthropogenic and climate risks by incorporating climate change and
DRR into management strategies of PAs.
Waste Management and Pollution
Recovery
Considering the scale of the waste problem, shortterm needs will include safe collection and disposal
of waste, and disposal and management of debris
and rubble. In the short to medium terms, efforts to
identify low emission and environmentally-friendly
ways of producing and resourcing construction materials will be important. Support to developing a
framework/mechanism to reduce pollution, including hazardous waste, will be a medium-term priority. In the long term, sustainable management of
waste and pollution, including legislation, improving capacity to monitor and enforce environmental
regulations, etc. will be planned.
Environmentally Friendly
Technologies
Recovery
Promotion of ICS and biogas as a clean alternative to traditional cooking practices by AEPC
has substantially decreased the use of fuelwood
as energy fuel and contributed to lower carbon
emissions. The damaged ICS and biogas plants
will be repaired and reconstructed in two phases:
Phase I –Immediate relief package offering domestic clean cooking: The focus will be on providing immediate cooking solutions by December
2015 with the installation target of 100,000 ICS
and 8360 biogas plants.
Environmental Governance
Reconstruction
In the short term, reconstruction of damaged
infrastructure and equipping them to restore
operational capacity is important. In the medium term, strengthening the human capacity of
both government and community institutions
will be required. Also, in the medium-term to
long-term efforts to strengthen the policy/institutional environment and support good environmental governance will be made. There is
need to expand the network of environmental
institutions at regional and district levels with
fully equipped environmental laboratories and
professional human resources.
Recovery
In the medium term, strengthening the human
capacity of both government and community institutions to assess and mitigate impacts of hazards
(including climate risks) will be implemented. Also
in the medium to long terms, efforts to strengthen
the policy and institutional environment to foster
good environmental governance will be intensified.
Improved mechanisms for environmental decisionmaking, including environment management information systems (EMIS) and improved environmental assessment processes, is an important medium- to
long-term need. Equal importance needs to be given
to increasing the capacity of government and nongovernment actors. At the same time, certain new
strategies will be required to ensure resilient recovery and reconstruction, which include Strategic
Environmental Assessment Strategy for developments; Low Carbon Development Strategy; and a
comprehensive Sustainable Development Strategy.
The Department of Environment (DoE) will lead
the development of an appropriate environmental
mitigation plan to reduce negative impacts of the
reconstruction and rehabilitation related activities
and will prepare temporary shelter environmental
management guidelines.
Pollution Control
Phase II – Reconstruction, rehabilitation and midterm relief solutions: Under this package, the focus will be to deliver long-term solutions for reconstruction and rehabilitation of damaged ICS
and biogas. During this phase, a total of 46,767
ICS and 8360 biogas plants within December
2016 will be installed.
206
Recovery
In the short term, measures to reduce pollution
from brick production will be implemented. In
the medium term, identification, recognition
and integration of technologies and practices
for reuse/recycle in the construction industry
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
will be supported; promotion of technological
improvements in the brick industry through fiscal measures such as subsidies are also important
medium-term needs. Fiscal incentives should also
be given to support import of climate smart, environmentally friendly (green) technology in the
construction industry. Another short- to medium-term need is to establish and operate mobile
and stationary stations to monitor air pollution,
noise pollution, water pollution and soil pollution. The technical and institutional capacity of
DoE to conduct assessments, document, analyse
and disseminate information regarding environmental hazards should be improved in the medium term while long-term needs include policy
oriented research to lead to adoption of climate
smart green technologies and promotion of sustainable consumption patterns.
Implementation Arrangements
The reconstruction and recovery programme for
the environment and forestry sector will be implemented in a phased approach. The recovery
and reconstruction programme for the forestry
sector will be coordinated by MoFSC and for
the environment sector by MoSTE.
The ministry and its respective departments,
such as Department of Forests, National Park
and Wildlife Conservation, Soil Conservation
and Watershed Management, will be responsible
for coordinating recovery of the forestry, biodiversity and watershed management subsectors in
close collaboration with local community groups.
Likewise, MoSTE’s Department of Environment
will be responsible to coordinate waste management and pollution issues while the Department
of Hydrology and Meteorology will coordinate all
activities related to environmental hazards such as
GLOF. AEPC will coordinate the recovery activities related to environmentally-friendly technologies (ICS and biogas installations).
Each ministry will coordinate closely with other
lead ministries and sectors for developing detailed
plans of implementation for other sectors. Both
ministries will also participate actively in any future national recovery coordination body that may
be set up, and work with other sectors to ensure
green principles and resilient practices are adopted,
and to promote sustainable development. The
recovery strategy will: (i) be clearly aligned with
the Government of Nepal’s existing plans and environmental conditions specified in international
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
treaties and accords; (ii) ensure promotion of landscape and basin level approach, strategy and activity planning to recognize the integrated nature of
environmental/natural resources issues; and (iii)
will continue to build and expand the strategy of
forestry for prosperity, low carbon growth, avoiding deforestation and deforestation. In addition,
MoSTE will also lead a Rapid Environmental Assessment (REA) of recent earthquakes to identify,
map and prioritize environmental impacts, hazards
and risks resulting from the earthquakes itself and
from subsequent recovery/reconstruction. It will
also ensure that negative environmental impacts be
reduced while measures to build back better in a
more resilient and environmentally sensitive way
is integrated across sectors. This REA report will
build on and validate the PDNA findings.
A Post Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction Management Coordination Committee
(DRRMCC) will be formed under the Secretary
of the respective ministries to coordinate implementation management. Respective departmental projects will be aligned, coordinated and implemented through the Implementation Working
Group chaired by the Director General of each
department. This committee will manage the
overall planning and decision making process, including putting in place an effective monitoring
and evaluation system. All recovery and reconstruction work at district level will be coordinated
through the District Disaster Relief Committees
(DDRCs). Field level implementation will be executed through district offices and through mobilizing local forestry groups and multi-stakeholder
institutions such as District Forestry Sector Coordination Committee (DFSCC) and Agriculture
Environment and Forest Committee.
Assessment Methodology
The environment and forestry sector PDNA was
completed by 25 members drawn from government, donors, international NGOs, federations
and academia. In its first meeting, the group
identified major issues facing the sector, direct
impacts from the earthquakes, and existing indirect and future potential impacts from responses
to the earthquakes by other sectors. The group
further organized into subgroups as per the priority sub-themes for data collection and analysis,
which were later validated and compiled.
• Forest loss: GIS analysis was undertaken by
FAO to estimate areas of forest loss due to
landslides, using a sampling methodology
207
208
Biodiversity Conservation and PA management [(i) habitat restoration plan;
ii) habitat management (7000 ha); iii) anti-poaching and illicit activities; iv)
conservation outreach; v) human-wildlife conflicts etc.)]
Resumption of community-based forest management livelihood support
capacity development [(i) 2300 OP revision; ii) direct support to 1650
LFUGs; iii) livelihood improvement plan support to 20000 HHs; iv) NTFP
promotion; v)capacity development of LFUGs and staffs
Gender and Social Inclusion [(i) empowerment; ii) training; iii) education;
iv) livelihood support)]
2.4
2.5
2.6
Promote research on new emerging technologies for environment protection and safe disposal of waste
3.10
Total
Solid waste management technology
Prepare environmental safety guidelines (waste management hazardous/
toxic waste management etc.)
3.8
3.9
Debris and rubble management, improvement of landfill
Technical capacity enhancement of DOE
3.6
3.7
Air, water and noise quality monitoring stations
Subsidies and incentives for promotion of green recovery
3.4
3.5
Promotion of environment friendly technology
Comprehensive environment assessment and monitoring
3.2
3.3
Repair and install ICS and biogas units/replacement
Watershed Management and Landslide Risk Mitigation [(i) hazard mapping; ii) prepare WS plans; iii) landslide treatment (bio-engineering, gabions, masonry); iv) sustainable soil management)]
2.3
Environment restoration
Forest restoration [i) rubble removal; ii) afforestation/ reforestation (18,000
ha); iii) grazing control and plantation protection; iv) salvage felling and
clearing etc.]
2.2
3
Forest management [(i) detailed impact assessment; ii) preparation of
management plans; iii) plan implementation; iv) surveillance; v) monitoring; vi) technology development etc.)]
2.1
5,816.9
0
15
500
50
500
300
15
5
20
471.9
1876.9
100
440
460
1120
480
440
3040
0
700
100
100
900
2015-16
Short
5,701.2
347
10
750
75
500
300
75
5
30
629.2
2721.2
75
330
345
840
360
330
2280
0
700
0
0
700
4,528.9
347
5
500
50
0
200
75
0
0
471.9
1648.9
75
330
345
840
360
330
2280
0
600
0
0
600
2017-18
Medium
2016-17
3,330
0
0
500
50
0
100
100
0
0
0
750
75
330
345
840
360
330
2280
100
200
0
0
300
2018-19
Long
2,780
0
0
250
50
0
100
100
0
0
0
500
75
330
345
840
360
330
2280
0
0
0
0
0
2019-20
3,040
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
440
460
1120
480
440
3040
0
0
0
0
0
2020-25
6,773
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1573
1573
0
0
0
0
1920
880
2800
0
2200
100
100
2400
Reconstruction
100
2200
100
100
2500
Total
694
30
2500
275
1000
1000
365
10
50
1573
7497
500
2200
2300
5600
2400
2200
18,424 25,197
694
30
2500
275
1000
1000
365
10
50
5924
500
2200
2300
5600
480
1320
12400 15200
100
0
0
0
100
Recovery
l
3.1
Risk assessment and management of GoN and LFUGs
Restoration forestry, watershed, biodiversity, NTFP
1.4
2
Furniture and forestry equipment
Repair/retrofit and reconstruction of offices (GoN + LFUG)
1.2
1.3
Forestry related infrastructure
Temporary shelter to district offices and service centre
1
Major Recovery Activities
1.1
SN
Table 16.3: Summary Reconstruction and Recovery Needs (NPR million)
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
• Loss and damage to forest, biodiversity
and watershed management capacity: Department of Forest (DoF), Department of
National Parks and Wildlife Conservation
(DNPWC), Nepal Trust for Nature and
Conservation (NTNC) and Department of
Soil Conservation and Watershed Management (DoSCWM) undertook rapid assessments to collect information on loss of infrastructure in PAs, DFOs and range posts,
and district soil conservation and watershed
management offices. Federation of Community Forestry Users Nepal (FECOFUN) provided data on loss of life and injury to CFUG
members as well as CFUG infrastructure.
• Valuation of payments for ecosystem services: The 2005 MoFSC study provides both
direct (such as timber, firewood, fodder, grass/
leaf-litter, edible fruits, tubers) and indirect use
(such as biodiversity conservation, ecological
function, carbon sequestration, soil and water
conservation, ecotourism, etc.) values of forests
per hectare for different forest types. Forest areas damaged by the earthquakes were mainly
of two types: pine forests (30 percent) and subtemperate forests (70 percent). These values were
adjusted to present values with an interest rate of
6 percent. No differentiation was made between
government managed and community forests.
• Alternative energy installations: AEPC and
its partners undertook rapid assessments to
collect information. Estimates were made
of additional carbon emissions as a result of
burning firewood on open fires instead of using the damaged installations, and these were
valued using current alternative energy market values for avoided carbon emissions.
• Building materials: Calculations were made
for the requirement of new bricks for reconstruction, including the amount of soil and
energy required for their production, and the
environmental cost in terms of carbon emissions and health hazards from air pollution.
Estimates were also made for sand, gravel and
aggregate extraction, and their environmental
cost (15 percent of their market value).
• Building debris: Estimates were made of the
amount of building debris that will require
disposal (i.e., which is not reused or recycled).
• Hazardous waste: Estimates were made
of hazardous materials, including hospital
waste, lead based paint, asbestos and mercury, by the Center for Public Health and
Environmental Development.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Assessment Limitations
Given the time limitations, the assessment of
the sector effects were based largely on secondary data and information collected from various
government and non-government organizations.
Efforts were made to validate data received. The
baseline and other post-disaster information
provided represent a high level of precision. The
following assumptions were made and limitations exist in the analysis of the post-disaster
assessment.
• In the assessment of the forest damage area,
the sample size is small. The average damage (or forest loss) calculated by FAO (2.2
percent for six districts) was extrapolated to
five other severely-affected districts with the
assumption that effects of the earthquakes is
similar in these districts. This will need further confirmation during the reconstruction
and recovery period through detailed field
assessments. Similarly, no significant forest
cover was assumed for the three districts of
Kathmandu, Lalitpur and Bhaktapur. Another assumption was that damage to forests
was limited in the other 17 districts.
• The economic valuation of the goods and
services was based on the 2005 study of the
MoFSC. The study considered six different forest types and average economic value
computed for similar forest types was used
to estimate the value of ecosystem services
lost. An interest rate of 6 percent was used to
convert the 2005 values to the present value.
However, the average inflation rate during
this time is reported to be around nine percent.
• Valuation of damages and reconstruction
costs to infrastructure and assets is based
on best estimates from field offices and informed by expert advice. Many CFUGs
operate either from rented private office
buildings or private residences of executive committee members. Only some have
dedicated office buildings. A uniform
standard cost estimate method was applied
to all damaged CFUG offices. This should
be verified during the implementation of
the reconstruction and recovery activities.
The recovery costs of various activities have
not taken into account changes in interest
and other price fluctuations. Sourcing of
timber and other construction materials is
assumed to be from local areas and locallyavailable materials.
209
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
210
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
17. Employment and Livelihoods
Summary
The 25 April and 12 May earthquakes affected
the livelihoods of about 2.29 million households
and 5.6 million workers across 31 districts, resulting in the loss of 94 million work days and
NPR 17 billion of personal income in FY 20152016. The agriculture sector appears to be the
most severely affected; it is estimated that 49.9
percent of all work days lost occurred in agriculture, followed by tourism with 31.1 percent
and commerce and industry with 20 percent.
Although the personal income loss is equivalent
to only two percent of the total disaster effect,
it is important to highlight that annual labour
earnings in Nepal are extremely low. Therefore,
even a minor income loss has serious implications for poverty in the country.
Despite the heavy losses suffered, the reconstruction and recovery phase is an opportunity
for job creation and employment growth. It is
estimated that large-scale housing reconstruction may generate up to 352 million workdays
over the next five years.
Enabling households and workers to recover
their productive and income-generating activities and increasing the resilience of livelihoods to
future shocks must be a key component of the
reconstruction and recovery process. A comprehensive strategy –Working Out of Disaster, Building Resilient Livelihoods–is proposed, consisting
of a package of interrelated downstream and upstream activities to bridge the continuum from
immediate income generation to medium- and
long-term employment recovery. The estimated
budget for the employment and livelihoods recovery needs amounts to NPR 12.5 billion.
Pre-disaster Context
and Baseline
Labour Market Overview
Prior to the earthquakes, Nepal was confronted
with a number of long-term, structural econom-
ic and labour market challenges. Since emerging in 2006 from a ten-year conflict, Nepal has
struggled with the difficult transition from war
to peace, from autocracy to democracy, and from
an exclusionary and centralized state to a more
inclusive and federal one. Economic growth has,
however, not been high enough to create enough
quality jobs for a growing, youthful population.
As a consequence, an increasing number of Nepalis are pursuing employment opportunities in
the informal economy. Looking at all sectors, it is
estimated that more than 96.2 percent of workers
are informally employed. An increasing number
of Nepalis are also seeking employment outside
the country. Remittance inflows to Nepal reached
US$5.87 billion during the first eight months of
the fiscal year 2013-2014, representing 29.1 percent of GDP. Compared to only US$771 million
in 2003, remittance flows have increased by 661
percent over a ten-year period.
Due in part to the rapid growth in remittance
inflows, poverty rates in Nepal have declined
since the 1990s, despite slow growth and the
intervening years of conflict. Data from the
National Living Standards Survey (NLSS) reveal that the poverty rate has fallen from 41.8
percent in 1995-1996 to 30.8 percent in 20032004, before dropping to 25.2 percent in 20102011. According to the 2008 Labour Force Survey (LFS), the labour force participation rate for
men was 87.5 percent in 2008 and 80.1 percent
for women, far higher than witnessed in other
countries in the region. Although the total work
volume carried out by children has declined over
the past decade, child labour remains a concern
in Nepal: 33.9 percent of children aged 5-14
were economically active in 2008, compared to
40.9 percent in 1998-1999.
There are considerable differences between urban and rural areas: Outside of Kathmandu Valley, workers are more likely to be women due to
the out-migration of men. Moreover, economi-
211
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
cally-active individuals in the rural districts hit
by the earthquake are more likely to be uneducated: 66 percent of them have no education
compared to 31 percent in Kathmandu Valley.
In light of these significant long-term and structural challenges, job creation and employment
have been prioritized by the Government of Nepal as reflected by the two preceding Three Year
Plans (2007- 2010 and 2010-2013). In February
2015, the Government of Nepal adopted the National Employment Policy, outlining a comprehensive and coordinated commitment to making
employment a key development objective and
improving implementation of related activities.
Agriculture
Most Nepalis are dependent on agriculture for a
living. Although agriculture contributes around
a third of GDP, majority of workers in agriculture are subsistence farmers and generate a modest personal income. A district-wise breakdown
reveals that the population (10 years and above)
engaged in agriculture varies from 5 percent in
Kathmandu to 61 percent in Solukhumbu. It
is estimated that a farmer spends around 182
days per annum on direct agriculture related activities, which includes land preparation, tilling,
sowing, weeding and harvesting.
income countries, Nepal could be argued to be a
case of ‘premature de-industrialization’.
According to the Department of Industries
(DoI), a limited number of registered small,
medium and large enterprises (5,274 in all) provided employment to 458,000 people in 2013.
However, only a fifth of all enterprises in Nepal
are formally registered and hence the majority of non-farm employment opportunities are
generated by informally-operating, householdbased and micro enterprises. According to the
2011 NLSS, 35 percent of households operate
a non-farm enterprise. Of this, 36 percent are
in trade, 35 percent in manufacturing, 17 percent in services and the remaining 12 percent in
other types of industries. In urban areas, nonfarm enterprises are primarily engaged in trade
and services, such as operating petty shops and
tea stalls, while manufacturing, such as producing handicrafts and weaving, is dominant in
rural areas. The wealth of a household appears
to determine the kind of business activities conducted: Households from the poorest consumption quintile have a disproportionately higher
share of manufacturing enterprises while those
from the richest quintile are primarily engaged
in trade and services.
Tourism
The agricultural sector is highly dominated by
women, largely due to a ‘feminization of agriculture’ as more and more men migrate to urban
centres and abroad. According to the 2008 LFS,
84.3 percent of working women are employed
in agriculture, compared to only 62.1 percent
for men. The great majority of working children, 82.1 percent, are engaged in agricultural
activities and predominately support the subsistence farming activities of their households.
Commerce and Industry
Although majority of the Nepali population continues to depend on agriculture for a living, Nepal’s labour market contributions to the economy
have shifted over the past decade and are increasingly driven by the non-agricultural sector. In
the period from 2001-2002 to 2013-2014 the
contribution of services to GDP has increased
from 45.1 to 52.2 percent. At the same time,
GDP contribution of industry has declined from
17.1 to 14.4 percent. As seen in many other low212
Despite a modest direct contribution of 4.3
percent to GDP in 2014 according to World
Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC) report
2015, tourism is increasingly recognized as an
important contributor to job creation in Nepal.
Reliable data on the total employment generated by the tourist sector remain scant: whilst
the Economic Survey 2013 states that 178,000
jobs are directly created by tourism, the World
Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) estimates
that 504,000 jobs were directly supported by the
tourism sector in 2013, along with an additional
608,000 indirect jobs.
Tourist activity in Nepal stimulates employment
among a number of formal businesses including international and domestic airlines, hotels,
homestays and travel agencies which multiply
income generating opportunities in the informal economy through value chains, e.g., porters, minibus/taxi operators as well as vendors
that sell handicrafts and other goods to tourists.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
According to the Ministry of Tourism, Culture
and Civil Aviation (MoCTA), employment in
tourism is marked by a number of gender disparities. About four out of five (80 percent)
workers in tourism are male. Likewise the proportion of male workers is higher than female
workers in all types of tourist businesses, except
in homestays, which employs more women (57
percent). Stark discrepancies also exist in employment status: the proportion of women is
higher among the self-employed (26 percent)
than among employees (19 percent).
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
household incomes in Nepal and continue to
fuel their home economy with one of the highest global remittance flows. According to DoFE
statistics, a professional Nepali worker in the
Gulf countries earns an average monthly income
of US$868 compared to only US$320 at home.
However, most migrant workers are unskilled
and earn far less. In 2013, Nepal ranked third
among countries receiving the highest proportion of remittances in terms of GDP. During the
first eight months of FY 2013-2014, remittances amounted to US$5.87 billion, representing
29.1 percent of GDP.
Migration and Overseas Employment
Over the past five years, the number of Nepali
seeking foreign employment has increased steadily. According to the Department of Foreign Employment (DoFE), in 2013-2014, 521,878 Nepali received official approval to seek employment
abroad, representing an increase of 177 percent
over 2009-2010. The International Organization
for Migration (IOM) estimates, as of 2015, a total of 4.06 million Nepali are abroad.
Records of the DoFE reveal that overseas employment is male dominated; about 95 percent of all
labour permits were granted to men. The actual
number of female overseas workers is however
likely to be somewhat higher as the National
Population and Housing Census (NPHC) 2011
documents a female absentee population of 12
percent. This omission can be partly explained
through irregular overseas migration and undocumented border migration to India, which
is not captured by the DoFE and accounts for
approximately 37.6 percent of total migration
in Nepal. The increase in labour migration has
been accompanied by various problems, including labour exploitation sometimes amounting to
forced labour and trafficking. Many Nepali migrant workers pay high fees to recruitment agencies, taking on loans from families and friends,
which places them in a state of indebtedness and
in turn can compel them to continue to work in
abusive, exploitative and unsafe working environments in order to repay the loans. Many of
them face severely exploitative conditions that
can include withholding of passports, restriction
on movements and non-payment of wages.
Despite many challenging work conditions, Nepali overseas workers contribute significantly to
The 2011 Nepal Living Standards Survey
(NLSS) reveals that there is a striking difference
between the per capita remittance received by an
individual in the poorest and richest consumption quintiles. In per capita terms, the poorest
consumption quintile receives one-twelfth of
what the richest quintile receives.
Disaster Effects and Impacts
The disaster effects on employment and livelihoods has been estimated based upon sectoral
output losses in the productive sectors, namely,
agriculture, commerce, industry and tourism. A
complementary analysis was done by the World
Bank that took additional secondary sources as
well as 75 (instead of 31) districts into consideration. Due to differences in data and scope, the
World Bank study derives a higher estimate of
lost work days and income.
The earthquakes have affected the livelihoods of
2.29 million households and 5.6 million workers across 31 districts, of which 51 percent are
women. This resulted in the loss of 94 million
work days and NPR 17 billion) of personal income in FY 2015-2016 (Table 17.1).
Analyzing geographical coverage, the highest
losses are expected to occur in Kathmandu (12
million work days lost, NPR 2,195 million personal income losses), followed by Sindhupalchowk (8.5 million work days lost, NPR 1,540
million personal income losses) and Nuwakot
(7.2 million work days lost, NPR 1311 million
personal income losses). The lowest losses are
expected to occur in Rasuwa (995,447 work
days lost and NPR 179.8 million personal
income losses).
213
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Effects on Agriculture
Agriculture and livestock rearing are the main
economic activities in the 31 affected districts.
Damage to standing crop and livestock are reported to be modest; however, the risk of livestock mortality and sickness has risen due to
inadequate feed and shelter. Additional damage to stored crops (for own consumption and
market sale), seeds (for planting) and basic
farming tools are reportedly moderate to high.
While the use of irrigation is limited, a significant portion of the irrigation infrastructure has
been damaged. Labour and other inputs (seeds,
tools) may fall critically short for the planting
of paddy, maize, millet and potato, especially
in the months of June to September.
It is estimated that approximately 1.46 million
agricultural households have been affected by
the earthquakes, losing 46 million work days
and personal income losses of NPR 4,603
million over the next 12 months. This will
in particular affect women who make up 60
percent of the agricultural labour force and
account for 28 million work days lost. The
comparatively low income losses in this sector,
despite the over 40 million work days lost, is
due to low annual labour earnings in Nepal
(NPR 11,200 for poor self-employed to NPR
31,900 for non-poor).
Effects on Commerce and Industry
Non-farm, household-based and micro enterprises in the industry and commerce sectors
represent an important segment of Nepal’s
economy. Most micro enterprises in the rural
affected areas are informally operating and are
agro- or forest-based, comprising mainly food
processing, artisanal work and handicrafts, and
carpentry and metalwork. It is estimated that
about 50 percent of all household-based and
micro enterprises located in the 31 districts
have sustained complete or partial damage to
premises, machinery, tools and equipment. Of
these, approximately 74,500 home-based work
places have been permanently destroyed. An
even greater share of household-based and micro enterprises is likely to be indirectly affected
through damaged road networks and reduced
electricity supply,resulting in limited access to
markets and interruptions in supply chains.
(see the Commerce and Industry Sector).
Table 17.1: Employment and Livelihoods Sector: Work Days Lost and Income Lost per District
District
Lost work days
NPR
USD
Bhaktapur
3,288,619
594.0
5.9
Dhading
6,466,268
1,167.9
11.7
Dolkha
6,011,318
1,085.7
10.9
Gorkha
6,859,487
1,238.9
12.4
12,153,573
2,195.1
22.0
Kavrepalanchowk
5,855,575
1,057.6
10.6
Lalitpur
3,399,321
614.0
6.1
Makawanpur
2,410,099
435.3
4.4
Nuwakot
7,260,420
1,311.3
13.1
Okhaldhunga
1,400,633
253.0
2.5
Ramechhap
2,909,959
525.6
5.3
Rasuwa
995,447
179.8
1.8
Sindhuli
2,201,064
397.5
4.0
Kathmandu
Sindhupalchowk
8,528,389
1,540.4
15.4
69,740,172
12,596
126.0
Other (17 districts)
25,074,666
4,529
45
Total (31 districts)
94,814,838
17,125.1
171.3
Sub - total (14 districts)
*Note: 2010 NPR values inflated to 2015 NPR values by multiplying by 1.41, based on the national CPI series.
214
Losses in personal income (In millions)
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Kathmandu is the largest urban economic centre in Nepal, accounting for one-third of the
country’s economic activity. A large number
of workers have left major urban economic
centres in the country, including Kathmandu, to provide relief and recovery support to
their families and communities in the villages.
Workers who have left for their settlements will
experience significant personal income losses.
Remaining workers in urban centres will also
suffer significant personal income losses due a
steep decline in consumer and labour demand
in the short term. It is estimated that at least
860,000 workers in commerce and industry, of
which approximately 33.9 percent are women,
have been affected by the earthquakes. Seven
million work days are expected to be lost in the
commerce sector and 10 million in the industry sector, resulting in a personal income loss
of NPR 2,667 million and NPR 3,654 million
respectively over the next 12 months.
Effects on Tourism
The destruction of and damage to cultural heritage sites will likely discourage cultural tourism
in the short and medium terms. Ecotourism
and adventure travel have also been affected
due to loss of tourism infrastructure and services in affected mountainous areas. Nepal has
two high tourism periods over the year and the
earthquakes hit in the middle of the first. The
impending rainy season is a low tourism period. The second high tourism period is after the
rainy season, between September and November. The tourism industry is expected to recover
somewhat for the next season and substantially
by the April-June 2016 season, although full
recovery is expected to take longer.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
It is estimated that in the 31 districts at least
84,000 workers in the tourism sector (of which
52 percent are women) have been affected by
the earthquakes, losing 29 million work days
over the next 24 months, and resulting in personal income losses of NPR 6,200 million. As
women tend to occupy less skilled jobs such
as housekeeping and waitressing, they are often
the first to be laid off, while managerial positions primarily held by men are maintained. It
is thus expected that women will account for
15 million lost work days in the tourism sector.
Whilst a quantitative analysis of work days lost
and personal income losses provides important
information on the effect of the disaster on employment and livelihoods, it should be noted
that income levels in Nepal are extremely low
and that many Nepali, especially in rural areas,
do not regularly participate in the cash economy.
A cautious interpretation of the above numbers
is, therefore, needed as many poor households
did not have a high income prior to the earthquakes and even small income losses may translate into a significant increase in poverty (see the
Human Development Impact Sector).
Conducting an analysis on the impact of a disaster on the well-being of households and workers
in contexts where economic activity is primarily
undertaken through the informal sector, subsistence farming and unpaid family work is a
challenging task, and in this regard this PDNA
provides an indicative, rather than exact, quantification of the impact of the earthquakes of 25
April and 12 May 2015 in Nepal. The analysis
of the disaster’s impact on employment and livelihoods, therefore, outlines the anticipated im-
Table 17.2: Employment and Livelihoods Sector: Workdays Lost and Income Loss per Sector
Agriculture
Commerce
Industry
Tourism
Total
Losses in personal income
(in millions)
Lost work days
Sector
Total
Women
Men
NPR
USD
46,431,436
28,137,450
18,293,986
4,603.3
46.0
7,898,324
2,796,371.97
5,101,952
2,667.1
26.7
10,822,634
4,270,250.29
6,552,384
3,654.5
36.5
29,662,443
15,424,470.46
14,237,973
6,200.2
62.0
94,814,838
50,628,543
44,186,295
17,125
171
*Note: 2010 NPR values inflated to 2015 NPR values by multiplying by 1.41, based on the national CPI series.
215
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
pact in the short term (FY 2015-2016), medium
term (FY 2016-2017 to 2017-2018), and long
term (FY 2018-2019 to 2019-2020). The actual
impact of the disaster will vary according to the
pace and effectiveness of the reconstruction and
recovery process.
Short-term Impacts (FY 2015-2016)
It is unlikely that small agricultural households
and home-based enterprises, notably in rural areas, will be able to reconstruct and fully repair
their dwellings and places of work before the
onset of the monsoon. The subsequent coping
strategies of households will depend on their location and sector of work.
For households dependent on agriculture, the loss
of income and livelihoods is likely to result in distress sale of assets along with own consumption
of livestock. This will in particular affect women
who tend to own and control smaller livestock,
particularly goats, pigs and chickens, which are
most likely to be sold first. The damage to stored
grains, seeds and tools will hinder the resumption
of agricultural activity, resulting in the failure to
plant the monsoon crop. Some rural households
will therefore be unable to sustain their subsistence existence in the short term and instead need
to purchase products they would otherwise have
produced themselves. A surge in child labour may
occur, as younger household members might be
forced to interrupt their education and take up income generating activities to support their families.
The risk of increased child labour is especially high
in districts where a large number of schools and
classrooms have been destroyed, such as Dhading,
Dolakha, Gorkha, Kathmandu, Kavre, Nuwakot
and Sindhupalchowk. (see the Education Sector).
Due to the destruction of dwellings, householdbased and micro enterprises are facing prolonged business interruptions until workplaces
are repaired and equipment, tools and machinery replenished. In comparison, the number of
affected workers in larger enterprises is expected
to be smaller, though many of them are absent
from their jobs, having returned to their home
rural districts. Qualitative observations suggest
that large enterprises are making an effort to
keep their workers on the payroll, whilst small
to medium sized enterprises are more likely to
have stopped paying wages.
216
In the aftermath of the earthquakes, the inflow
of tourists is expected to remain low for many
months to come, which will have a prolonged
impact on enterprises and workers dependent
on this once-rapidly growing sector. The impending monsoon period is normally the low
season for tourist arrivals; therefore, the impact
on workers in this sector will depend on whether
tourists return for the main season between September and November 2015. Projections made
in this report (see Tourism Sector), however,
suggest that a deficit in arrivals and spending is
likely to continue over 2016-17.
Overall, unless support measures as outlined later
in this chapter are provided, households will have
to seek alternative sources of income, which is
likely to precipitate greater internal and external
migration in the coming months. As migration is
primarily a male phenomenon in Nepal, women
will typically stay at home to attend to childcare
and household duties. The overall workload for
women in extended economic activities is therefore expected to increase significantly.
The immediate response of households to the
earthquakes resulted in many people leaving
their residence to return to their villages to assist
with relief efforts. Based on data from NCELL
(the country’s leading mobile service provider),
figures provided by flowminder.org and World
Pop indicate that approximately 340,000 persons left their homes in the Kathmandu Valley
(Kathmandu, Bhaktapur and Lalitpur districts)
after the 25 April earthquake and temporarily
relocated to other districts as of 27 May 2015.
The short-term impact on overseas migration
is constrained by the lack of precise figures on
the number of persons leaving Nepal for foreign
employment after the earthquakes. However,
some sources estimate that the number in May
2015 has reduced by 20 to 25 percent and is
likely to stay at this level for one or two months
before it gradually increases. How the migration
flows from Nepal will develop over the next few
month depends on several factors, including:
(i) how quickly District Administration Offices
respond to passport applications, including the
extent to which ID and other personal documents have been destroyed/lost; (ii) access to resources to finance migration; and (iii) the avail-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
ability of local employment opportunities and
wage developments that can offer an alternative
to employment abroad. Cross-border migration
to India might increase further as it does not require a long preparatory process or high costs associated with recruitment and travel. Typically,
migration outflows from Nepal are relatively low
in the months before Dashain (the national festival in late September/early October) and picks
up after that. It is likely that this pattern will
be seen this year as well. In general, remittances
are expected to be higher in the short term as
Nepali migrant workers are likely to send higher
amounts of remittances back home. Remittances to the 31 affected districts are expected to
amount to NPR 3.72 billion in 2015.
According to a rapid assessment conducted by
the Centre for the Study of Labour and Mobility
in four severely-affected sites (Kathmandu Valley, Dhading, Kavrepalanchowk and Sindhupalchowk), a large number of external migrants did
try to return but were unable to due to: (i) not
receiving permission from the employer; (ii) not
having the money to buy a ticket at the time; and
(iii) being told by families not to return since the
migrant’s earnings had become more important
in the post-disaster situation. The assessment also
revealed that, in the short run, there is a preference for migrating within the country rather than
abroad. However, in the long run, foreign employment is likely to increase.
Increased migration later in the year implies that
a downward pressure on wages in the local labour market is unlikely to occur. Nonetheless,
there may be increased pressure on households
to send previously inactive members out to
work, including children and the elderly. Special
consideration should be given to women who
may struggle to access employment opportunities, as they are likely to dedicate more time to
childcare and other caring responsibilities while
social infrastructure such as health centres and
schools remain destroyed and/or damaged.
The construction sector, though initially disrupted, will experience a surge in demand for
workers to carry out demolitions, clearing, site
preparation and reconstruction of destroyed and
damaged buildings and other physical infrastructure. The main challenge will be meeting the de-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
mand for skilled workers in construction, which
represent some 40 percent of the needed workforce (See Community Infrastructure Sector and
Housing Sector). The industry relies heavily on
Indian sources for skilled construction workers,
and their availability is far less certain. The housing sector alone may need 17,500 masons who
are often part-time workers, or migrating between
Nepal, India and the Middle East. This sector of
the labour market will have to be augmented by
a rapid input of skills training. The increased demand for construction workers, especially skilled
ones, will create new employment opportunities
while pushing up wages in some occupations
such as masonry. Finally, in the short term it is
also possible that hunger, sickness, despair and
distress may take a toll on affected people’s lives
and ability to work and cope.
Medium-term Impacts
(FY2016-2017 to 2017-2018)
Over the medium term, employment and livelihoods will continue to be impacted by the destruction of buildings and infrastructure, while
migration will remain one of the key coping
mechanisms for households.
Agricultural production will continue to be
negatively impacted if households are unable to
access inputs and re-engage in farming activities.
Similarly, micro enterprises will require restoration of work places and access to inputs in order
return to and maintain their economic activities. Even if economic activity is restored, there
is likely to be a negative impact on productivity,
unless households are able to access productive
inputs and benefit from improved infrastructure
and other facilities. Tourist arrivals will remain
subdued over the medium term if restoration of
cultural sites, trekking routes and other relevant
infrastructure is slow paced.
Housing reconstruction is likely to generate 322
million workdays of employment over the next
five years (see Housing Sector). Most of this will
occur in rural areas, reconstructing mud/stone
structures and utilizing significant amounts of
salvaged materials. Assuming that the majority of
reconstruction will occur in the first three years,
it is estimated that the labour demand will peak
at 0.54 million workers, which is a significant
number compared to the current estimates of one
217
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
million workers already involved in the housing
sector. However, as noted elsewhere, a significant
quantum of the unskilled work will be undertaken by existing family members currently outside
the sector, so this may not be a major problem.
The main concern is the skilled workforce,
which constitutes around 46 percent of the
needed workforce. The industry relies heavily
on Indian sources for skilled construction workers, and their availability is far less certain. The
housing sector alone may need 17,500 masons
who are often part-time workers, or migrating
between Nepal, India and the Middle East. This
sector of the labour market will definitely have
to be augmented by rapid training. The recommendations therefore include a significant training element to upgrade the skills of local craftsmen in combination with the introduction of
improved earthquake-resistant technologies.
Prior to the 25 April and 12 May earthquakes,
the number of labour migrants from Nepal was
increasing every year; the number of labour permits issued between 2008-2009 and 2013-2014
increased by a staggering 137 percent. Thus, the
likely medium-term scenario for the affected
districts is that migration will continue to increase, resulting in a corresponding increase in
remittances to these districts.
Long-term Impacts
(FY2018-2019 to 2019-2020)
The long-term impact of the earthquakes on
employment and livelihoods will depend on
both macroeconomic factors, such as the ability
of Nepal to grow more robustly and attract investments, and constraints at the micro level, including the pace and extent of the restoration of
dwellings and infrastructure. The changes in labour demand, which will eventuate over the short
and medium terms, may further induce structural changes to the economy and labour market.
In this regard, the Nepali economy was already
distorted by the significant inflow of remittances,
which resulted in a service-led growth path. At
the same time, manufacturing was stagnating and
the share of workers in this sector stood at just 6.6
percent according to the 2008 LFS.
The likely increase in migration of workers and
inflow of remittances, along with sustained de218
mand for construction workers following the
earthquakes, is unlikely to result in a more sustainable path of structural transformation. For
this reason, it is critical that suppliers of manufactured goods are supported to take advantage
of the increased demand in the construction
sector. Otherwise, the reconstruction efforts
will contribute to higher imports of such goods,
mainly from China and India, subduing the impact on job creation in manufacturing.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
Enabling households and workers to recover
their productive and income-generating
activities whilst also increasing their livelihoods’
resilience towards future shocks must be a key
component of the reconstruction and recovery
process. This challenge can only be met through
a joint effort of authorities at national and
district levels, the private sector, including
financial service providers, workers’ and
employers’
organizations,
civil
society
organizations and international agencies in
order to address immediate, short-term and
medium- to long-term recovery priorities.
Recognizing that recovery paths in the different productive sectors may differ, and that of
Kathmandu may be faster than other affected
districts, this section attempts to focus mostly
on ensuring a strong employment and livelihoods recovery for the largest number of poor
people, with a focus on areas where the immediate earthquake effects have been largest on
income and earnings – agriculture and micro
enterprises. In addition to the recommendations and activities proposed below, the Social
Protection Sector chapter provides complementary recovery needs.
In order to guide prospective interventions, a
comprehensive Working Out of Disaster, Building Resilient Livelihoods Strategy is proposed.
The strategy consists of a package of interrelated
downstream and upstream activities to bridge
the continuum from immediate income generation activities to medium- and long-term employment recovery. It requires a comprehensive
institutional framework, which builds on existing policies and programmes, including the National Employment Policy in March 2015, and
instils decent work values.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Three key considerations around gender
appropriate strategies have also been made:
first, that informal sector and all types of work
need to be counted; second, recognizing micro
enterprises where many women are engaged;
and third, recognizing women’s contribution
as migrants and remittance providers in the
country’s path to recovery (while seeking to
improve protection against their trafficking and
exploitation as migrant workers).
It will be critical that the policy environment for
recovery be supportive of opportunities for affected people to rebuild their livelihoods. As such,
several policies and mechanisms related to construction employment opportunities, skills development, overseas employment, and financial support to micro enterprises and small farmers will
be key to the success of the activities proposed. In
addition, there will also be a need for people in
Kathmandu or those moving back and building
in Kathmandu to be incentivized to reconstruct
according to the building codes. The policy recommendations given below are suggestions that
will allow and support building back of people’s
livelihoods in all the affected districts.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Remittance Flows and Nepali Diaspora
• Extend the waiver of remittance transfer fees
in the affected districts.
•Implement the Working Procedure for
Domestic Workers - 2015 approved by the
Cabinet as part of the promotion of safe
and legal mechanisms for domestic work for
women migrants.
• Engage the Nepali diaspora and facilitate
their investment (e.g., through bonds) in
the recovery.
Poor and Vulnerable Households
• Improve access to homes and workplaces for
the poor, particularly in urban areas, to promote sustainable livelihoods.
• Provide soft loans/zero collateral loans to
enable micro entrepreneurs and smallholder
households to replenish their assets and to restart their livelihoods.
• Target workers engaged in the informal
economy to ensure that the most vulnerable
households receive livelihoods support.
• Promote partnerships with community level
organizations.
Gender Equality and Social Inclusion
Relief, Reconstruction and Recovery
• Mainstream labour-intensive and climateresilient reconstruction in earthquakeaffected areas.
• Restore access to markets to revive supply
chains and to stabilize the local economy.
• Establish employment/skills services coordination mechanisms/arrangements.
• Integrate concerns, issues and responses to
address child labour, particularly its worst
forms, with special consideration to vulnerabilities of children and youth, drawing on
guidance provided in the Child Protection
Minimum Standard 19: Economic Recovery and Child Protection and gender considerations.
• Monitor delivery of relief goods during
the monsoon season and ensure that the
provision of humanitarian aid does not distort
local markets.
•Procure goods and services locally,
whenever possible, during the relief and reconstruction process.
• Target female workers in agriculture and
ensure access to extension services and
farm inputs.
• Reduce the feminization of agriculture by
providing skills development for women in
entrepreneurship and masonry skills.
• Ensure the participation and benefit of women and Dalit communities in labour intensive and cash-for-work programmes.
• Provide access to soft credit or non-collateral
loans for women whose homestays are less
likely to be insured and have limited resource
base for reconstructing their hotels.
Specific Recovery Needs/Activities
Short Term (FY 2015-2016): Providing Income
Opportunities and Attending Immediate Livelihood Recovery Needs
The short-term phase (FY 2015) aims to attend
to immediate needs of people and institutions
in disaster-affected areas. The main focus in this
phase is to help people restore their livelihoods.
219
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
It will mainly target individuals and micro-,
small-, and medium-size enterprises. Activities
suggested include:
a. Creating emergency employment opportunities through labour-intensive infrastructure
and rehabilitation activities in disaster-affected
areas/cash for work: Labour-intensive infrastructure rehabilitation not only provides income for people engaged in the rehabilitation
work but also provides access to social service
facilities. Debris and landslide clearance activities will accelerate recovery and reconstruction activities as well as economic activities by re-establishing strategic roads. Under
the labour-intensive infrastructure activities,
workers will be provided with short-term, onthe-job training on basic skills required for rehabilitation and construction work. There will
also be a need to recognize that some people
will not be in a situation to avail such services,
due to family situation such as having young
children to care for or being a female-headed
households with an absent spouse.
b. Providing rapid skills development training
for the rehabilitation and construction of
housing and other infrastructure: Construction of housing is one of the most urgent
issues. The lack of skilled workers poses a
major risk in delaying the process. Most of
the work will be carried out by householders themselves who were not involved in
construction before. Short-term, intensive
skills development training on constructing
housing will therefore need to be provided
to householders who are expected to engage
in building their own houses, as well as job
seekers who wish to enter the housing construction sector. In addition, coordination
of skills provision across skill providers, skill
types and trainees will be critical to ensure
opportunities are maximized. Skills related
to entrepreneurship as well as safe migration
will also be needed.
c. Establishing employment services: Demand
and supply in the post-earthquake labour
market is rapidly changing. In this context,
functional employment services are indispensable in order to match job seekers and
potential employers, especially in the context
of reconstruction efforts. The centres can
also match potential workers with training.
Special attention will be given to returning
220
migrant workers (e.g., through matching
job seekers with labour needed for public
works for infrastructure recovery). These
centres will need to be institutionalized at
the district level in the form of employment
information and facilitation centres. Crucial
to this will be working with both men and
women as well as recognizing opportunities
which are appropriate to their needs.
d. Supporting the recovery of micro and small
enterprises: Enterprise development training will be provided to help disaster-affected
micro and small businesses survive and even
prosper in what is currently a very difficult
business environment. Specific attention
should be given to informal micro entrepreneurs, preparing for a gradual transition
into the formal economy. Stimulating entrepreneurship will include improving access to
microfinance by working with micro-finance
institutions and facilitating partnerships
with national banks.
e. Preventing child labour: Mainstreaming of
child labour issues and concerns in programme activities is critical, with a focus on:
community-based mechanisms to ensure no
child labour is involved; integration in training and monitoring/evaluation; mechanism
for referring vulnerable children and/or those
identified as child labour for rehabilitation;
and awareness raising among families and
concerned functionaries, including officials
of the districts, municipalities, Village Development Committees (VDCs) and teachers.
Medium Term (FY 2016-2017 to 20172018): Promoting Employment Recovery by means of Building the Capacities of People and Institutions
The post-earthquake labour market is expected
to evolve dramatically because of emerging
needs for reconstruction activities in various sectors. To create a recovery process that provides
sustainable job opportunities for disaster-affected people and preparing them with usable skills
is crucial. Enterprise development and support
for small, medium and micro enterprises will be
another focus to sustain job-rich recovery. The
medium-term strategy therefore consists of the
following activities:
a. Establishing a labour market information
system: A labour market information system
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
enables a more accurate identification of labour supply and demand trends, while also
providing the basis for a more effective assessment of shocks to the Nepali labour market in the wake of such disasters.
b.Further strengthening employment service centres: The emergency employment
centres established during the short-term
phase can be further strengthened to
continue providing services to match job
seekers and employers.
c.Expanding migrant resource centres and
skills training for migrants: Establishing migrant resource centres at the district level that
provide information on safe migration, predeparture training and financial education to
migrant workers and their family members is
crucial in ensuring safe and productive migra-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
tion behaviours. Enhancing the skill levels of
prospective migrant workers so that they can
apply for better paid, higher skilled positions,
thereby increasing future remittances to the
affected districts, is crucial. Focusing on offering women skills outside of the domestic work
sector needs to be part of the strategy.
d. Providing skills development training for
under-skilled and vulnerable workers: During the second phase of the recovery process,
job seekers will be equipped with skills demanded in the evolving labour market. For
instance, in the construction sector, disaster
risk reduction (DRR) related skills such as
retrofitting and building earthquake-resilient
infrastructure will most likely be in high
demand in the coming years. Skills training based on actual demand in the labour
221
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
market should be offered to low-skilled job
seekers. It is indispensable to ensure that
certificates issued at the completion of skills
development trainings are accredited by the
national technical and vocational education
and training (TVET) institution. Trainingof-trainers programmes should be enhanced.
Coordination of these additional skills being
provided will need to be a priority.
e.Continue labour-intensive infrastructure
and rehabilitation activities in disaster-affected areas: The creation of employment opportunities would need to continue during
this period, but is likely to be on a smaller
scale. Labour intensive reconstruction could
gradually expand into employment intensive
investment programmes (EIIP) contributing
through community contractors to local development, especially in rural areas.
Sustaining Job-rich Recovery and
Promoting Resilient Livelihoods
In the long term, there will be a need for continuation of the earlier years’ support to ensure affected people are able to sustain their recovery and
livelihoods. This will include ensuring that the
systems built up in the earlier years and the support these systems provide to people in sustaining
their employment and livelihoods are continued.
Assessment Methodology
The analysis of the disaster effects on the employment and livelihoods sector is based upon a crosscutting analysis and takes into consideration the
estimated sectoral output losses in other sectors,
in particular the productive sectors of agriculture,
commerce, industry and tourism. Through comparing the estimated reduction in sectoral GDP
in FY 2015-2016 to 2016-2017 with the sectoral
GDP contribution in FY 2013-2014, the employment and livelihoods effect is calculated and
Long Term (FY 2018-2019 to 2019-2020):
Table 17.3: Costing of Recovery Activities
Total
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
5,927
3,247
3,247
63
63
-
12,547
2
2
2,514
-
-
-
-
-
2,514
Cash- for-work and labour-based programmes
focused on rebuilding public and private assets
pertaining to livelihoods
3,393
-
-
-
-
-
3,393
Establish employment information/facilitation
centres districts (including on migration) - 14
districts
Mainstream child labour issues and concerns in
all programme activities
14
-
-
-
-
-
14
3
-
-
-
-
-
3
Skills provision coordination mechanism
1
31
31
1
1
65
Establishment of Labour Management Information System
Employment facilitation services – 31 districts
Migrant resource centres – 31 districts
Skills training programmes
Labour- based programmes through community contracting
Total
-
200
200
-
-
-
400
-
31
31
1,257
1,697
31
31
1,257
1,697
31
31
-
31
31
-
-
124
124
2,514
3,394
5,927
3,247
3,247
63
63
-
12,547
Recovery needs
Awareness and sensitizing measures to mainstream occupational safety standards and nondiscriminatory practices during reconstruction
and recovery - 14 districts
Skills training programme-focused on disasterresilient skills development for rebuilding (masons, carpenters, contractors), entrepreneurship, financial literacy, including to migrants
222
Financial year (NPR million)
2015-16
2019-20 2020-21
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
expressed as ‘work days lost’ and ‘income loss’.
Secondary data sources such as the 2011 National Population and Housing Census (NPHC),
the 2010-2011 Nepal Living Standards Survey
(NLSS) and the 2008 Nepal Labour Force Survey (NLFS) were used to construct the baseline
scenario, including a basic employment and
earnings profile before the April/May earthquakes. Complementary qualitative insights,
gathered during field visits and consultations
with key stakeholders, informed the impact
analysis of the earthquakes in the short, medium
and long term.
Under the authority and overall guidance of the
Ministry of Employment and Labour (MoLE)
and the National Planning Commission (NPC),
the employment and livelihoods sector assessment team was co-led by the World Bank and
the International Labour Organization (ILO)
with support from the Asian Development Bank
(ADB), International Centre for Integrated
Mountain Development (ICIMOD), International Organization for Migration (IOM), Swiss
Development Cooperation (SDC), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and
World Food Programme (WFP). Contributions
were also made by the Ministry of Federal Affairs and Local Development (MoFALD).
References
• Central Bureau of Statistics (2008). National Labour Force Survey. CBS, Kathmandu.
• Central Bureau of Statistics (2011). Nepal Living Standards Survey 2010-2011.
CBS, Kathmandu.
• Central Bureau of Statistics (2012). National Population and Housing Census 2011.
CBS, Kathmandu.
• Central Bureau of Statistics (2013). National Account Statistics of Nepal 2013-2014.
CBS, Kathmandu.
• Central Bureau of Statistics (2014). Annual Household Survey 2012-2013.
CBS, Kathmandu.
•Flowminder (2015) Nepal Population
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Estimates as of 27 May 2015, available
online:
https://data.hdx.rwlabs.org/dataset/population-movements-after-the-nepal-earthquake-v-2-up-to-27-may-2015/
resource_download/3a626e22-c94c-42f8b207-612f41ae8b36 (accessed 5 June 2015).
• Giri, B. (2009). ‘The Bonded Labour System
in Nepal: Perspectives of Haliya and Kamaiya Child Workers’, Journal of Asian and
African Studies, 12/2009, 44(6):599-623.
• ILO (2013). Updating Research on Informal Sector of the Construction Industry in
Nepal. ILO, Kathmandu
• ILO (2014). Nepal Decent Work Country
Programme 2013-2017. ILO, Kathmandu.
• ILO (2014). Nepal Labour Market Update.
ILO, Kathmandu.
•International Dalit Solidarity Network
(IDNS). Caste-based Slavery in Nepal,
available online: http://idsn.org/key-issues/
caste-based-slavery/dalit-women-in-nepal/
(accessed 5 June 2015).
• Islam, R. (2014). Nepal: Addressing the
Employment Challenge through the Sectoral Pattern of Growth. ILO, Kathmandu.
• Ministry of Finance (MoF) (2014). Economic Survey. MoF, Kathmandu.
•Ministry of Labour and Employment
(MoLE). 2014. Labour Migration for
Employment: A Status Report for Nepal,
2013/2014. MoLE/DoFE, Kathmandu.
• Sijapati, B. (2014). Enhancing Employmentcentric Growth in Nepal. ILO, Kathmandu.
• World Bank (2014) Press release online:
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pressrelease/2014/04/11/remittances-developing-countries-deportations-migrant-workers-wb (accessed 5 June 2015).
• World Travel and Tourism Council. (2014).
Travel & Tourism: Economic Impact
2014Nepal. Available online: http://www.
wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic%20
impact%20research/country%20reports/nepal2014.pdf (accessed on 5 June 2015).
223
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
224
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
18. Gender and Social Inclusion
Summary
“It is the everyday inequities, and not just in time
of a disaster, thatcreate greater risk and reduce the
life chances of women and girls.”
Disasters do not discriminate, they hit the
young, the old and the rich and the poor alike.
However, their impacts are felt differently by
different social groups. Women; senior citizens;
lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender/transsexual
and intersex communities; and Intersexed (LGBTI) communities; people living with disabilities (PLWD); children; Dalits and other ethnic
and caste-based minorities were disproportionally affected by the earthquakes. The social constructs and widespread inequalities, exclusion
and discrimination against these social groups
have not only shaped who has died as a result of
the earthquakes, but also their capacity to cope
and respond effectively to the disaster. These
social groups are over-represented in the lowest
wealth quintiles, and therefore have fewer resources for coping with disaster impacts. Their
status in Nepali society will also determine their
participation and benefits from the post-disaster
relief and recovery interventions and their general resilience to future disasters.
Women, who make up the largest disadvantaged population (more than half the population), have been the most negatively affected
across the key sectors of housing, agriculture,
water and sanitation, and tourism. A high
number of female-headed households (FHHH)
have lost their homes and yet as per official data
only 19.7 percent of the women own homes or
land. Lack of house and land ownership among
women and Dalits, compounded by constrained access to economic resources, means
that these groups could be marginalized by the
post-disaster house reconstruction programmes.
Another sector worth noting is agriculture, on
which a large proportion of Nepali women and
other disadvantaged groups such as Dalits and
Janjatis depend for their livelihood. Loss of
food stocks, potentially reduced agricultural
productivity and time poverty could set back
these communities that depend on the sector
and push them further into poverty. The combined factors of poor living conditions, disruptions in economic activities and loss of income
could compel families to adopt negative coping
strategies such as stress selling of assets, child
labour, human trafficking and early marriage,
which would impact girls in particular. Added
disruptions in policing, justice systems and loss
of family protection also mean that vulnerable
groups are at heightened risk of violence, abuse
and exploitation.
While women and vulnerable groups have been
disproportionately impacted by the earthquakes,
simply viewing them as victims only exacerbates
their vulnerability. They have knowledge, relationships and practical skills that are critical to
post-disaster recovery. Although their quantifiable contribution in the national accounting
framework often remains invisible, women
make the largest contribution to the agricultural economy in Nepal. However, relative lack
of opportunities, ownership and access to land
resources, combined with the lack of specific attention of the recovery programmes at the micro
level, could contribute to the poorest sectors remaining below the poverty line.
Equitable post-disaster recovery could help to
reduce their disadvantaged condition and increase their overall resilience. It is crucial that
there is no discrimination based on sex, age, sexual orientation, gender, class, ethnicity or ability
at all stages of recovery. This includes the discussions and decision-making processes that determine the shape of recovery activities, as well
as in the mechanisms to monitor how effective
these activities are. In this sense, it is very important to orient the recovery resources towards
vulnerable groups and to strengthen the capacities and skills that they are already using to cope
with the disaster. Women, men and vulnerable
groups must have access to reconstruction and
rehabilitation jobs as well as public works, investment funds and income-generating projects
to support their long-term economic recovery.
225
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Pre-disaster Context
and Baseline
Nepal ranks relatively low on the UNDP Human Development Index; 145 out of 187 countries, which places it within the least developed
country index. The percentage of the population
living below the poverty line has steadily fallen
from 42 percent in 1996 to 23.8 percent in 2013.
Nepal ranks 98 out 187 countries on the Gender
Inequality Index. There is a significant education
gap between women and men. In the 15-49 age
group, over 40 percent of the women have never
been to school, compared to 14 percent for men.
Male literacy rate is 75.1 percent compared to female literacy rate of 57.4 percent. It is estimated
that FHHH make up 25.7 percent of all households at the national level. Due to significant
male emigration, women have crossed all ‘traditional’ boundaries of gender division of labour
and socio-cultural norms. The share of women’s
paid employment in the non-agricultural sector
has more than doubled, from just under 19.9 percent in 2009 to 44.8 percent in 2011.
Children, particularly girls, face significant inequalities in Nepal, which has some of the highest rates of child marriage in Asia. Children also
face the risk of dropping out of school to help
with household work, but also to work in worse
forms of child labour. Dalits are another disadvantaged social group that has historically been
victimized. They continue to lag at the bottom of
the social structure and are excluded from the national development mainstream due to the caste
system. The elderly, PLWD, LGBTI and people
living with HIV are some of the other social
groups that face inequalities and discrimination.
Although there has been some progress, women
remain poorly represented in state mechanisms
and decision-making processes at all levels
(community, village, district and national).
Poor participation and representation is lowest amongst Dalit women and women of other
ethnic and caste-based minorities. The share of
women’s representation in the Constituent Assembly (CA), the Cabinet and in public life is
less than the 33 percent required by the constitution. Similar to decision-making processes,
women have limited access to and control over
It is difficult to ascertain the level of participation and influence that women have in these fora
66
226
household and economic assets. For example,
only 19.7 percent of land, houses or both are
registered in the name of a female member of
the household.
The national mechanism for promoting gender
equality and women’s empowerment is through
the Ministry of Women, Children and Social
Welfare (MoWCSW). The ministry is responsible for formulation, implementation and
monitoring of national policies and strategies, as
well as providing support to other line ministries
on gender mainstreaming in sectoral activities.
This structure is reflected at the subnational level
through the Local Development Ministry at the
district level and the Village Development Committees (VDCs). Yet, participation of women
and disadvantaged groups remains low (16 percent) in VDC meetings. However, participation
of women in Ward Citizen Forums (WCF) and
Community Awareness Centres (CACs) is as
high as 80 percent.66 These play an important
role in facilitating women’s participation in the
integrated planning process. Furthermore, Nepal has adopted Gender Responsive Budgeting
(GRB) with the aim of ensuring that the needs
and interests of women and men from different
groups are addressed in the government budget.
In recent years, MoWCSW has put significant
emphasis on the importance of translating policies aimed at addressing gender inequalities into
targetted and funded programmes.
The Government of Nepal has been a leading
global example in its adoption, institutionalization and practice of gender-responsive budgeting (GRB) principles and their application
to the Government’s planning and budgeting
processes. A GRB Committee (GRBC) provides guidance and monitoring support to the
government’s budget allocation and expenditure from a gender-responsive perspective based
on set criteria. The GRB classification criteria
include: women’s participation in the formulation and implementation of programmes;
women’s capacity development; women’s share
of the intended programme results; promoting
employment and income generation for women; qualitative improvement of women’s time
use or reduced workload. The Government
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
of Nepal recently took the forward-looking
decision to constitute a GRBC in all sectoral
ministries and in all District Development
Committees (DDC).
Based on the 2011 national census, the 14 most-affected districts include the following social groups:
Table 18.1: Social Groups
and Population Size
Social group
Population size
(based on % of
total population)
Total affected population
5.7 million
Total population of affected women and girls
(50.5%)
2.8 million
Senior citizens (over 60
years) (women only)
0.163 million
Dalit population (16.3%)
0.929 million
Female headed households (26.6%)
0.123 million
No. of elderly households
0.104 million
No. of children out of
school
1.399 million
People living with disabilities
0.322 million
Girls under the age of 14
years
0.794 million
Pregnant and lactating
mothers
0.092 million
Post-Disaster Context
Disaster Effects
A total of 8,792 people died in the earthquakes
of 25 April and 12 May. More women and girls
died (55 percent) than men (45 percent)67 (Figure 18.1). The higher mortality levels for women and girls has been attributed to a number of
factors including male migration to the capital
and out of the country. This phenomenon could
also explain the higher number of male deaths
in Kathmandu, which has a higher male population. The higher number of female deaths also
reflects traditional gender roles (women and
girls are more likely to be inside the house than
men), but it was also reported that women delayed their escape during the earthquakes to
rescue their children, older family members and
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
valuables.68 Similarly, it is likely that more men
and boys were injured than women and girls, because they were able to escape death.
Disaster Impacts
Social Sectors
All social groups have been hugely affected by
loss of homes and shelter. For women, however,
homes can also be places for income generation
and their loss is also one of home-based economic resources and assets for their livelihood
and well-being. Some social groups may face
difficulties in rebuilding their homes due to the
fact they have limited resources to respond to
the disaster. It is estimated that 123,937 households in the 14 affected districts are femaleheaded (26 percent of all affected households).
However, it can be anticipated that this figure
will increase given households who have lost
husbands. Likewise, an increase in single male
households can also be expected due to higher
fatality rates among women.
Among the different marginalized groups, FHHHs have sustained the largest damage and loss
of approximately NPR 85.28 billion in the 14
most affected districts (see Table 18.2 below).
The Adivasi Janajatis households have suffered
damage and loss of NPR 80.56 billion rupees,
followed by senior citizens at NPR 75.01 billion,
and the Dalits at NPR 53.16 billion rupees.
Figure 18.1: Death Toll in Nepal Earthquakes 2015
BOYS
15% | 1,303
WOMEN
38% | 3,300
MEN
30% | 2,605
67
Based on data from the Nepal Disaster Risk Reduction Portal: http://drrportal.gov.np/ as of 11 June 2015
68
Based on inputs from the Nepal Humanitarian Gender Task Force
GIRLS
17% | 1,476
227
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Within FHHHs, households headed by widows,
divorced women, separated women and single
(unmarried) women are at a greater risk of living
in poverty. Furthermore, women living in their
homes may not be the house owners. Women’s
land and house ownership only stands at 19.17
percent due to discriminatory ownership rights.
FHHHs will therefore need targeted housing reconstruction interventions. Based on ownership
patterns observed in the 2011 Census, it can
be assumed that damage and losses incurred by
women and marginalised groups are very high,
especially considering that the housing quality
of marginalised groups tends to be poor.
Considering the high levels of FHHHs, it is recommended that at least 25 to 30 percent of the
house reconstruction and rehabilitation funds
should be allocated to them. Care should be
taken that this assistance reaches single women,
divorced women and widows who are the poorest
groups within the FHHHs, PLWD, older people,
and ethnic/caste-based minorities. Furthermore,
considering that only 19.17 percent of women
own land and houses, access to new homes or
home building finance should be made on condition of joint spouse ownership and full ownership to female heads and single women. Recovery
should enforce the rights ordained by the Interim
Constitution, National Shelter Policy, which
requires the state to avail land and housing to
people from economically weak sections as well
as those residing in unsafe settlements.
The earthquake has had a disastrous effect on
education as almost 1.4 million children are out
school (699,100 girls and 699,937 boys) in the 14
most affected districts. Toilets in public schools
have also been damaged and inadequate access to
safe, hygienic and private sanitation facilities can
be a source of shame, physical discomfort and insecurity for school going adolescent girls.
There is already a lower enrolment of girls in
schools in comparison with boys; this gap may
increase because there is an added risk of girls
being pulled out of school to help with household work. Another imminent risk to girls in
school is child and early marriage, which is still
common in Nepal. Okhaldhunga, Dhading,
Gorkha and Rasuwa have the highest risk of
early marriage for girls as more than 70 percent
marry before the age of 19. Parents could resort
to marrying their daughters young as a coping
mechanism against the impacts of the disaster
on household expenditure. For the family of the
groom bringing a new member in family would
mean adding working hands, particularly in the
rural agricultural contexts.
Reconstruction of segregated and disability friendly school toilets should be prioritised,
even where children are in temporary schools, to
provide privacy for menstruating girls. Furthermore, sustained monitoring by the MoWCSA
for the next 12 months of school attendance
rates for boys and girls will be critical to monitor
the potential of children dropping out of school
to support household work, income generation
through child labour and early marriage.
The UN estimates that there are approximately
1,408,189 females of reproductive age in the 14
districts and approximately 138,367 of the female
population are or will be pregnant in the next 12
months. Of this figure, 18,600 will need obstetric
care in the same period. It is also estimated that
10,327 babies are born every month in the 14
affected districts without access to basic healthcare 69. Damage sustained by local hospitals and
health centres will further limit women’s access
to sexual and reproductive health services. It was
noted in Nuwakot, for example, that all 27 birthing centres have been destroyed. The approaching
monsoon rains, compounded by displaced people
Table 18.2: Damages and Losses Sustained by Different Vulnerable Social Groups
Total damage and loss
(NPR million)
Female
HHHs
26%
23%
16%
25%
326,169.00
85,279.21
75,018.87
53,165.55
80,563.74
Ownership rate
Total effect per social group
(NPR million)
Based on information provided by UNFPA Nepal Country Office
69
228
Senior citizen
HHHs
Dalits
HHHs
Janajati
HHHs
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
sleeping outdoors, could promote an increase of
vector borne diseases such as malaria, which may
affect children and pregnant mothers more negatively. Additionally, potential disease outbreaks
could add an additional work burden on women
who are the normal caretakers of the sick.
The impact of the disaster on the mental health
of the affected population is not well documented. But interviews with women and children
show that they live in constant fear of buildings
collapsing and of another big earthquake. In Kavre, women reported that they are afraid to let
their children out of sight, the main reason being that children are constantly wandering into
condemned homes as they don’t understand the
dangers a damaged house presents. The women
reported sleeping while holding their children to
prevent separation should another earthquake
occur in the middle of the night.
The earthquakes have led to changes in food
consumption patterns ahead of the monsoon
and this will have implications on the nutritional status of individuals. Protein consumption is
reported to have decreased in 10 out of 18 surveyed VDCs in Gorkha, Sindhupalchowk, Nuwakot, Dhading, Rasuwa and Dolakha, where
people are eating less meat, milk and eggs due
to loss of livestock and market disruption. This
situation may be worse for Dalit communities,
whose food sufficiency level is the lowest among
all major caste and ethnic groups. Malnutrition
among Dalit children is as high as 33.9 percent.
The combination of cultural norms (women
and girls eat last) and the impact of the disaster
on food security and nutrition could be detrimental to women, particularly pregnant and
lactating mothers. Sustained support on food
supplements and nutrition for children and
pregnant women is essential. Targeted nutrition
programmes for Dalit children, pregnant and
lactating mothers and senior citizens are also important. The continuing food distribution programmes should provide for older people who
have specific food requirements. Infrastructure Sectors
Destruction of critical infrastructure such as
water sources, roads, electricity and community
buildings can have a profound effect on women’s
70
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
and men’s ability to engage in economic activities. They can also impede access to social capital
and increase household work burden. Disruption in water supply and electricity has had a
disproportionate negative effect on women and
girls who are traditionally responsible for 75
percent of all household water management and
for collecting firewood. For example women in
Dhadhing, Lamjung, and Gorkha are spending
as much as three hours collecting water70. This
has increased the work load of women and girls
considerably. The earthquake has also resulted in
an estimated loss of more than 180,000 household toilets. Destruction of toilets compounded by lack of water and poor living conditions,
which do not offer privacy for women and girls,
have had a serious impact on the personal and
menstrual hygiene of women and adolescent
girls. Collapse of women cooperative buildings
and possibilities of displacement of members to
new places may also create disruptions to future
women development programmes.
It is imperative that both men and women
should equally participate and benefit from reconstruction programmes around infrastructure,
such as rehabilitation of rural roads, community
buildings, irrigation systems etc. A percentage of
the funds should also be targetted towards disadvantaged Dalit communities and other ethnic
minorities. In readiness for the monsoon, water
purification awareness programmes targetting
women and school children in the most-affected
areas should be undertaken. Rehabilitation of
water supply is urgently needed before the monsoon season begins, which will ease the burden
of work on women and will also act as a disease
prevention measure. Construction of public and
private toilets with proper lighting as part of the
housing programme will alleviate the problems
that women and girls face regarding privacy.
Productive Sectors
Due to significant male emigration, women
have crossed all ‘traditional’ boundaries of gender division of labour and socio-cultural norms.
The impact on the productive sectors has therefore meant that women have suffered significant losses, especially in the agriculture sector.
Agriculture is highly dominated by women,
largely due to feminization of agriculture as men
Based on data from the PDNA water supply and sanitation field visit report by the Finish Embassy.
229
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
increasingly migrate to cities within Nepal and
abroad. Agricultural labour is comprised of 60
percent women and 40 percent men. Women
have an even larger share in the livestock sector. As a consequence, the disaster has had a
disproportionate effect on women (see Figure
18.2 below71). Women have lost approximately
NPR 15 billion to men, who have lost NPR 10
billion. The loss of seed stocks will mean that
women will struggle to find good seeds for
planting, which could affect subsequent yields.
In addition, the combination of loss of home,
food stocks and disruptions in essential services
will mean that women face an increased work
burden in household and agricultural work. The
expected increase in animal diseases due to lack
of fodder and adequate shelter, combined with
potential distress sale of assets, will affect women the most. Women own and control smaller
livestock, particularly goats, pigs and chickens,
which are more likely to be sold first, thereby
eroding their livelihoods. Agriculture will also
be negatively affected due to lack of inputs. Although women provide most of the labour, their
lack of ownership also means that they have no
collateral for accessing inputs on credit.
Long-term training of female extension workers
is needed to ensure that women, who contribute
the most to the sector and are excluded from extension services, are able to access such services.
Currently, only 31 percent of women farmers
receive extension in comparison to 69 percent
men. The number of women professionals in
the agriculture and natural resource management sectors is very low, both in the government
Figure 18.2: Agricultural Damage and Loss by Gender
Men
10,185,200,000
Women
15,277,800,000
Total Effect
25,463,000,000
-
10,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
and private sector, which means there are very
few professional women who could help ensure
provision of gender-responsive information and
services to rural women farmers. With regard to
resettlement, land ownership certificates will be
issued jointly in the name of both husband and
wife, while prioritizing land to Dalits and landless ethnic minorities to ensure equal access.
Beyond agriculture, manufacturing, commerce,
and personal and community services provide
significant employment in Nepal. However,
women’s economic activity in these non-agriculture sectors is traditionally low. Non-farm
household-based and micro enterprises in the
industry and commerce sectors represent an
important segment of Nepal’s economy. Most
micro enterprises in the rural affected areas are
agro- or forest-based, comprising mainly of food
processing, artisanal work and handicrafts, and
carpentry and metalwork. Damage to premises
has affected assets that women and men use for
their livelihoods, such as looms and tools for
metalwork. The damage is further compounded
by reduced demand for crafts due to depressed
tourist numbers and disruptions in transport
and marketing. Overall, it is expected that men
have suffered more as they are employed in
larger numbers in this sector. It is estimated that
about 50 percent of all household-based and micro enterprises located in the 31 districts have
sustained complete or partial damage to premises, machinery, tools and equipment, which
will affect their ability to re-engage in economic
activities.
Based on the NLSS 2011, more women than
men are engaged in the tourism sector. Analysis of the hotel and restaurant survey indicates
that 52 percent of those employed in this sector
are women. However, despite this high number,
women tend to occupy less skilled jobs such as
housekeeping and waitressing. The tourism sector analysis shows that tourist numbers are down
by 90 percent, some of the hotels and homestays
have been extensively damaged, all of which
have an implication on income and job losses.
The tourism sector estimates that 200,000 people have lost their jobs. Women, who often oc-
The calculation uses women’s contribution to the sector as proxy of the damage and loss they have suffered as a result of the earthquake, the table above shows that women
suffered 60 percent of the effect. This figure is probably higher taking into account for women’s even higher contribution to livestock sector.
71
230
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
cupy less skilled jobs, are often the first to be laid
off, while managerial positions held by men are
maintained.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
to the Nepali labour force and the constraints
they face in accessing economic resources, efforts should be made to ensure that recovery programmes do not contribute to greater
inequalities. Targeted investment in women
should be an integral part of the agricultural recovery strategy. This should include the provision of extension services and farm inputs. Skills
development for women in entrepreneurship,
masonry skills, accompanied by market development will be important in reducing women’s
dependence on agriculture and build their resilience against future disasters. There should be
affirmative action in ensuring the participation
of and benefits to women and Dalit communities in cash-for-work programmes, such as
building of community infrastructure, rural
road rehabilitation etc. At least 40 percent of
the labour force should be women. Soft-credit
or non-collateral loans should be made accessible to women and men whose homestays are
less likely to be insured and who have limited
resources base for reconstructing their hotels.
According to the Tourism Survey 2014, 57 percent of homestay owners are women. Women
therefore have incurred the largest loss within
the homestay accommodation. Men on the other
hand have been most affected in the trekking sector and tour operations. Table 18.3 table below
shows that women engaged in the accommodation subsector72 have lost approximately NPR
3.6 billion. Men, however, will bear a higher will
bear a higher loss of about NPR 14.3 billion.
Recovery efforts should focus on facilitating access to soft credit and low interest rates for female owners of hospitality establishments. This
is particularly needed for female-owned homestays, who may struggle more than their male
counterparts to recover. Skill development and
direct access to external markets is needed for
women entrepreneurs to reduce their reliance on
local tourist markets and to enhance their resilience against future disasters.
Given the gender disparities in time use and
the unequal distribution of unpaid work between women and men, analysis of disaster
impact on time use for women and men is
critical. Disasters tend to increase the time allocated to productive, reproductive and community work for women, more than for men.
A quick time-use survey in Sindhulpachowk
and Kavre indicated that women are spending
an additional four to five hours per day clearing debris, salvaging of household items buried
under the rubble and salvaging home construction materials for shelter construction (see Annex C). Women also indicated that they are going to sleep later than normal at around 10:00
pm instead of 8:00 pm. Men are also allocating similar hours for home rebuilding. Caring
An analysis of the impact on employment and
livelihoods indicates that more women than men
(50.63 million and 44.19 million work days respectively) lost a high number of work days in
commerce, tourism and agriculture, except for industry (see the tourism chapter for more details).
This is more pronounced in the agriculture sector,
which employs more women than men. The high
loss of work days also corresponds to a high time
poverty being experienced by women. Women’s
dependence on the sector compounded by limited access to economic resources means that they
will struggle the most to recover from the disaster.
Taking into account women’s large contribution
Table 18.3: Damages and Losses to Women in Tourism subsectors
Type of establishment
Total damage
(NPR million)
% of women self-employed
in the sector
Damages and losses incurred
by women (NPR million)
Hotels and other accommodation
16,294
17 %
26,88
Homestays
1,720
57 %
9,80
Total
18,014
20 %
3,668
72
It was not possible to calculate loss on the whole tourism sector due to lack data on male and female ownership in restaurants.
231
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
for children is also said to have increased due
to children being out of school, and it is done
concurrently with other chores. Women also indicated that the constant need to check on children, out of concern for their safety, is limiting
their mobility beyond their homes. Fetching
time of water has increased up to three hours,
which has also increased the work load of women considerably than for men. The approaching
planting season, compounded by the absence of
working males, will also put an additional work
burden on women and girls. Table 18.4 below73
shows the economic quantification of emergency and rehabilitation tasks that women are now
engaging in as a result of the earthquake. This
is the time women would have used for income
generating activities, socializing and resting
under normal circumstances.
Governance Issues
Gender inequality and other social inequalities
are a governance failure. Limited participation
of women in politics and insignificant numbers
of women in the professional and civil service
categories compared to men reflects the exclusion of women from decision-making and
control over resources. The share of women’s
representation in CA is 29.41 percent and as of
January 2015, and Nepal only has 16.8 percent
of women in the civil service overall. Participation and representation of women is the lowest amongst Dalit and indigenous women. Low
representation of women in decision-making
processes has an implication on women’s ability
to influence how and where the reconstruction
and rehabilitation resources are allocated and
utilized. Furthermore, women’s limited voice
also means that women may not be able to
benefit equally from the resources made available for post-disaster recovery. Various women
development groups, committees, women-led
cooperatives and watch groups are operate at
local level. Women’s cooperatives and mothers’
groups are important means for income generation, social awareness and collective action especially and safety nets for women. It also acts
a platform for women to influence community
decision making process.
Access to courts and functioning of family protection units have been compromised by the
earthquake. District courts are prioritizing serious
crimes, which means cases of sexual and genderbased violence (SGBV) would not be a priority.
All of the above could impact women’s access
to justice, especially if they have to travel away
from home. Other areas of concern are the loss of
citizen identity cards, particularly for women and
men under social protection, such as people with
disabilities and senior citizens.
Protection Issues
Although all interviewed district officers recognized the need to give special attention to the
needs of women and girls, PLWD, Dalits, older
people and excluded ethnic and caste-based minorities, they indicated that this was not strictly
observed in the distribution of relief items. The
main reason for this was the need to maintain
community cohesiveness over meeting special
needs of marginalised social groups. One such
group is the newly widowed males who may suddenly have to take on the sole responsibility of
parenting, childcare and household work. In ad-
Table 18.4: Time-use Change/increase
Type of Task
Time allocated
for recovery
activities/day
No. of days
Total No. of
the activ- hours allocatity is likely to ed to recovery
continue
tasks
Average
wage/hr for
the task
Total value No. of affected
of missed
households
income per
woman
Total economic impact
(NPR)
Salvaging building
material
3
60
180
18.7
3,366.00
416,136
1,400,713,776
Fetching water
2
120
240
18.7
4,488.00
83,277
373,747,176
7
120
840
18.7
15,708.00
416,136
Childcare
Total
12
6,536,664,288
8,311,125,240
Although child care is done concurrently with other household chores, it is calculated separately and wholly because of the intensity of constant oversight over children and because under normal circumstances a nanny or relative would take care of the children.
73
232
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
dition, very little is known of how people living
with HIV/AIDS and LGBTI communities have
been affected. This will require detailed investigation to ensure that their needs are not overlooked
during recovery. There is also a potential increase
of SGBV, human trafficking, early marriage and
child labour as families strive to cope with the disaster as a result of break down in security.
they are now sleeping under unsecured tarpaulins. In addition, poor lighting, lack of segregated toilets and wash facilities in temporary
shelters can contribute to an increase in sexual
violence against women and girls. Reports from
the shelter cluster indicate that overcrowding is
one of the challenges facing communities staying in shelters and camps.
Sexual and Gender-based Violence
Human Trafficking of Women
and Children
Nepal has significantly high levels of violence
against women and girls. It is estimated that
one in five women have been the victims of
physical violence and more than one in ten reported experiencing sexual violence. Domestic
violence, marital rape, dowry-related violence
and trafficking of women and girls for sexual
and non-sexual labour exploitation are particular problems. A variety of factors construct and
reinforce both the violence and the failure to
report it. These include gaps in legislation and
weak implementation of laws. Furthermore,
women’s lack of autonomy, high economic dependence, men’s perceived entitlement to sex,
lack of education and knowledge of sexuality,
marriage practices, lack of family and legal support to women and husband’s use of alcohol are
all noted to contribute to the risk of violence.
Global studies in other disasters have shown that
women and girls are likely to face elevated levels
of violence after disasters. Increased stress and
feelings of powerlessness due to bereavement,
loss of property and loss of livelihood, mental
health problems such as post-traumatic stress
disorder, the scarcity of basic provisions and
other factors leading to hegemonic masculinity crises contribute to higher levels of violence.
For example, in Kavre the Women and Children
Officer reported one rape and three attempted
rape cases within one week in contrast with 26
cases per year or about two cases a month. Furthermore, reports of SGBV received through
safe spaces show that there is concern for young
girls’ safety after the death of parents and other
relatives who would normally look after them.
Interviews74 with the affected women in both
Kavre and Sindhulpalchowk indicated that FHHHs are very worried for their safety, because
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
According to International Labour Organization, 12,000 women and children are trafficked
to the Middle East and India every year, mainly
for exploitation in brothels or as forced labour
and other forms of servitude. Girls aged over 14
to 16 years are more likely to enter sex trafficking through a route of fraudulent marriage. The
risk in being trafficked is even more heightened
for girls in districts with high levels of child
marriage. Some of the severely affected districts,
particularly Sindhulpalchowk, Nuwakot Dhading, and Kavre are historically known for high
rates of trafficking of women and children and
hence may face elevated levels of human trafficking. There are cases of 64 children being
trafficking from Dolakha and Dhading districts, after the earthquakes, and other 11 from
between the ages of 10 and 12 from Dolakha
to Kathmandu and this seem to be increasing.
The move by the government to ban the travel
of children under age of 16 without parents or
approved guardians could deter human traffickers who authorities fear are targeting vulnerable
families. For example, reports indicate that in
Dolakha, Sindhulpalchowk and Nuwakot traffickers are entering temporary shelters disguised
as relief workers.75 Sustained surveillance in the
coming 12-24 months will be needed. The situation could worsen as traffickers target newlyorphaned children and vulnerable families.
Child Protection
Children in the most-affected districts could be
facing an added risk of child trafficking, child
labour, early and forced marriage and violence
(including SGBV) as a result of the disaster. As
already mentioned above, there is a heightened
risk of human trafficking for children who have
Based on PDNA field assessment done in Kavre, Sindhupalchowk and Nuwakot
74
75
Based on information gathered from the Gender Equality Bulletin No. 1 - Response to the Nepal Earthquake –20 May 2015
233
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
lost their parents. Data is not available in all the
14 districts; however, in Sindhupalchowk, it was
reported that 89 children had lost their mothers.
Increased child marriage is also a real risk, considering the already high current 41percent rate
of child marriage by the age of 18; and one in
10 girls being married before the age of 15. Dalit
women marrying age is below 16 years. There
is concern that the underlying vulnerability that
girls face in terms of early marriage could be exacerbated as families marry off their daughters at
an early age as an economic survival strategy to
reduce their economic burden. Similarly, families may force their children to support household income and household work. Of particular
concern are girls who may be asked to drop out
of school to help with household work.
ability to move around, but also in accessing
relief items. Access to temporary shelters, toilets,
etc., could be another challenge which needs to
be addressed in the design of community shelters. Furthermore, there will be a great many
needs in the next 12 months for physiotherapy
services for people who are recovering from their
injuries. Effort should be made to reach women
with injuries who may not be seek these services or family members may not see the need to
support them in seeking medical help. Many
PLWD are taken care of by their household
members who are often female. Disasters can
lead to loss of caretakers and or additional burden on the caretakers. In addition, women with
disabilities often experience multiple discriminations and are more exposed to GBV.
Overall, incidence of child labour is 42 percent.
This is much higher among 10-14 year olds than
among 5-9 year olds (61 percent as opposed to
21 percent). Females have higher incidence than
males. According to the NLSS III, 53 percent
of these children are attending school but not
working, 38 percent are attending school while
working, 4 percent are working only, and the remaining children are idle. Another dimension of
the disaster impact is the loss of birth certificates
for children and the registration of babies whose
parents died before they were registered.
Senior Citizens
People Living with
Disabilities (PLWD)
About 2 percent (or 513,321) of the total Nepali population are reported to have some kind
of disability. Physical disability constitutes 36.3
percent; followed by blindness/low vision (18.5
percent), deaf/hard to hearing (15.4 percent),
speech problem (11.5 percent), multiple disability (7.5), mental disability (6 percent), intellectual
disability (2.9 percent) and deaf-blind (1.8 percent). Within the 14 most affected communities,
it can be deduced that 322,110.78 have physical
disability, 163,043 of which are women and girls.
However, although there is no data available, it
can be assumed that this figure has increased due
to injuries sustained in the earthquake.
Disasters make the situation worse for PLWD
with regard to access to essential services. Presence of debris as a result of the earthquake will
create challenges for people with physical dis234
Senior female citizens were identified as the most
vulnerable social groups that will struggle the
most in coping with the disaster, followed by children. In the aftermath of a disaster, senior citizens
face additional challenges in accessing livelihood
opportunities. They also have restricted mobility in accessing post disaster recovery activities.
Furthermore, the increased number of orphans
will create a new burden for the surviving elderly
guardians in providing care for their children.
Caste Designation
and Ethnicity
According to the Disadvantaged Group Mapping data, 38 percent of the VDCs in all earthquake affected districts have ‘high’ to ‘very high’
concentration of disadvantaged groups. This is
particularly so due to the high prevalence of Janajatis ethnic groups and Dalits and those in the
bottom income quintiles in the affected districts
(See Table 3). Furthermore, 42 percent of Dalits
live under the poverty line, 80 percent of which
are Dalit women. They face multiple forms of
discrimination and exclusion, which has affected
how they have experienced the disaster but will
also affect their ability to recover from the disaster. As a result of the earthquake, Dalits have
faced discrimination and exclusion in the rescue
and relief efforts as the services are reachable to
the headquarters. Dalits on the other hand live in
a different settlements away from the dominant
habitants. Their social status means that Dalits
are some of the worse affected social groups.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Recovery Needs and Strategy
Institutional participation and representation
of discriminated social groups through District Disaster Relief Committee (DDRC)in
all recovery programmes is essential to ensure
they benefit equally but also to ensure that recovery programmes do not further marginalize
them. Furthermore, measures to support and
promote attainment of ownership rights and
tenure rights are essential to ensure that postdisaster recovery programmes do not re-enforce
the inequalities faced by women and vulnerable
social groups. Similarly, mechanism to support
certification and registration of women, which
could facilitate ownership of land and homes
and women and children who have lost their
spouses and their parents respectively should
be in place. Monitoring mechanism to ensure
issues measures mentioned above are addressed
should also be established. The table below outlines the recovery needs to support protection
issues. Gender-related recovery needs for sectors
are captured in respective sector chapters.
From a macroeconomic recovery perspective,
women play a major role on the agricultural
economy and the informal sector in addition
to reproductive work. It goes without saying
that women will also will play a critical role in
rebuilding Nepal’s household and macro-economy. Yet, their contribution and that of other
disadvantaged social groups, to the national accounting system often remains invisible. However, equitable economic growth and investment
in women can lead to a reduction in their disadvantaged condition, increase overall resilience
and higher rates of economic growth. On the
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
other hand, lack of specific recovery investment
in women and vulnerable social groups at the
micro level can contribute to the poorest sectors
staying in below the poverty line.
National plans, policies, institutions and budgets reflect how governments translate commitments to gender equality into results for
women. The post-disaster recovery presents an
opportunity to start redressing inequalities and
at the very least not perpetuate unequal access
to power and resources through the allocation
of recovery financial and human resources. It is
recommended, therefore, that budget allocation
under the government’s institutionalized gender
responsive budgeting framework should be increased in addition to the specific recovery needs
identified in this sector. Post-disaster recovery
strategies and resources must strive to safeguard,
restore, and promote economic engagement of
disadvantages groups, such as women and castebased groups. These efforts must also seek to
redress inequalities and at the very least not perpetuate unequal access to power and resources.
Women’s economic recovery under the postdisaster recovery programmes must therefore
be protected and accorded the same status and
importance as that of men.
Integrated Recovery Needs for Child Protection, SGBV and Human Trafficking:
The government has taken the following measures to strengthen child protection. These
include a ban on inter-country adoption for
the next three months starting from 26 April
2015, no new registrations of new child welfare
homes, and a ban on transfer of children from
Table 18.5: Cost of Recovery Needs
SN
Main activities
1.
Integrated protection and support of women and girls, children, PLWD, disability and senior
citizens and issues around human trafficking
2.
Support to prevent sexual and gender-based violence
93,100,000
3.
Support for child protection
45,750,000
4.
Support for people living with disabilities
87,000,000
5.
Support to senior citizens
30,000,000
6.
Documentation and registration of vulnerable groups
7.
Governance and accountability
8.
Construction and rehabilitation
Total
Budget requirement (NPR)
121,400,000
58,000,000
164,260,000
486,000,000
1,085,510,000
235
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
one district to another without approval from
the District Child Welfare Board of the government. However, more measures are still needed.
Short to medium term
a) Capacity development and training to the
police and the judiciary on gender sensitivity to treat SGBV cases seriously and mobilisation of community and engagement of
men and boys;
b)Community awareness and sensitisation
messages on risks associated with child and
early marriage, internal migration, forced
migration and human trafficking through
the media and mobilisation of parents,
teachers, community leaders;
c)Establishment of alert systems, confidential counselling and community safety nets,
paying particular attention to the most vulnerable and marginalized groups of children
and women who are at risk of trafficking,
violence, abuse and exploitation and sharing of information to enable stakeholders to
take appropriate measures;
d) Establishment and strengthening of referral
systems to support women and girls who are
victims of violence;
e)Provision of information ‘listening posts’
on where women and girls and children
can report concerns and get support and information on services and focal points and
through the strengthening of government
and local actors who provide these services;
f ) Registration of children who have lost their
birth certificates are able to obtain a new one;
g) Strengthening community-based child protection mechanisms to ensure child protection cases are identified, reported, documented and responded to;
h)Training of healthcare providers
on
psycho-social support
i)
Provision of livelihood options to
reduce the risk of forced migration and
human trafficking for women and parents
who are desperate to find livelihood
alternative opportunities.
Long term
j) Review and reform the legal process for reporting and responding to rape and gender-
based violence in order to make it more accessible to women and girls.
k) Strengthening the Civil Registration and Vital Statistics System to ensure that it is resilient to future shocks and disasters, ensuring
that children are able to easily replace lost
birth certificates;
l) Supporting relevant government agencies76 to
review and enhance the implementation of
the National Master Plan on Child Labour;
m)Strengthening the National Child Protection
System and child protection services through
capacity building, inter-institutional networking, and strategic partnerships at the
national and sub-national levels;
n)Undertaking a comprehensive review of existing child protection systems and their appropriateness to respond in the context of
humanitarian situations to inform the development of strategies for child protection in
emergencies;
o) Establishment of systems of accreditation for
social workers and development a common
social work curriculum including specific
content on child protection and child case
management in emergencies;
p) Enacting the Children’s Bill ensuring that it
includes, inter alia, legal prohibition of all
forms of violence against children and legal
provision for the establishment of child protection committees at the village level.
Recovery Needs for PLWD:
a)People who have become disabled because
of the disaster may find difficult to accept
this new reality and may need peer counselling. Connecting them with other PLWD for
counselling would be essential;
b)Provision of information on government
services available to PLWD, and expedition
of disability registration to enable access to
government social protection schemes;
c) Establishment of integrated mobile teams in
the most affected areas to ensure that PLWD
who have lost their social benefit documents
are able to obtain new ones;
d)Design and reconstruction of homes and
shelters need to take into account of the accessibility for people with disabilities;
e) Important to ensure that PLWD are resettled
Ministry of Labour; Ministry of Women, Children and Social Welfare, Nepal Police and other justice counter-parts.
76
236
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
or relocated in areas where they can easily access essential services such as schools, health
facilities etc.
Recovery Needs for Senior Citizens:
a) Ensuring senior citizens, have access to information, aid (medical care and emotional
support especially with possible loss to social
networks and isolation from a familiar environment);
b) In case of relocation and resettlement, senior
citizens should be resettled in areas that have
easy access to essential services;
c) Consultations with the elderly in the design/
development of housing structures that support mobility of the elderly;
d) Establishment of integrated mobile teams in
the most affected areas to ensure that senior
citizens who have lost their social benefit
documents are able to obtain new ones;
e) Provision of social protection support to the
elderly who have the additional burden of caring for children who have lost their parents;
f ) Housing rebuilding support for old people
who may not be able to take the responsibility or have the manpower support to repair
or reconstruct their shelters or houses. Designs of shelter and houses should also take
into account the needs of senior citizens.
Recovery Need for Disadvantaged Groups:
a) It is important to consider the issues and concerns of ‘minorities within minorities’ across
all sectors being considered in the recovery
framework. Recovery efforts should consider
the multi-dimensionality of discrimination and
exclusion of the Dalits and ethnic minorities;
b) To avoid urban bias in post disaster recovery
efforts, recovery funds should be earmarked
to support Dalits and other minority groups;
c)Targeting of livelihood restoration programmes such as cash for work as well reconstruction programmes at the Dalits, particularly Dalit women;
d) Promoting the participation of Dalits in the
design, implementing and monitoring of recovery programmes and activities.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Implementation Arrangements
The implementation of the above strategy will
be led by the MOWCSA. As appropriate, the
Ministry will also collaborate with the Ministry
of Labour and Employment (MOLE) for child
labour awareness, prevention and monitoring;
MOLE for public works and cash-for-work
programmes; Ministry of Education for school
drop-out rates and child marriage; and the Ministry of Federal Affairs and Local development
in identifying and supporting vulnerable households through social protection. The MOWCSA will also work with the police district departments in monitoring human trafficking of
young women and children.
With regard to addressing gender equality and
social inclusion issues in the social, productive and infrastructure sectors, the MOWCSA
will collaborate with the relevant ministries to
provide technical support to address these issues. For effective delivery of the recovery programmes, collaboration with the Ministry of
Finance, the National Planning Commission,
development partners, and international and local civil society organizations will be key.
Assessment Methodology
Most of the data provided was gathered from
other sector assessments presented in this report. Furthermore, impact data was also gathered from humanitarian needs assessment
undertaken by the Humanitarian Clusters in
Nepal. A desk review was also conducted to collect baseline data related to the sectors to enable
analysis on what has changed after the disaster.
The Gender and Social Inclusion team also undertook a field assessment in Nuwakot, Kavre,
Sindhupalchowk and in Kathmandu to verify
information gathered around child protection,
SGBV, human trafficking and how other social
groups such as people with disability, ethnic minorities were affected.
237
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
238
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
19. Social Protection
Summary
The objective of social protection is to help
households manage risks (including vulnerabilities across different life-cycle stages) and cope
with adverse events. Reflecting the constitutional
provision of social protection as a right, Nepal’s
social protection system has broadened in terms
of range of schemes. However, the baseline situation of the social protection system inadequately
covers a range of risks and vulnerabilities.
Following the earthquakes, households have
faced negative income and consumption shocks,
resulting in a greater need for social protection
and insulation from vulnerabilities. Using welfare analysis, it is estimated that the earthquakes
would cause average household consumption in
most-affected districts to decline by 20 percent.
The condition of households that were already
vulnerable prior to the earthquakes is more
likely to be exacerbated.
About NPR 23.5 billion is needed to restore
consumption of vulnerable groups (households
with persons with disabilities, single women,
children and elderly) in the 14 most-affected
districts to pre-earthquake levels. This estimate
increases to about NPR 32.7 billion if vulnerable households in the 31 affected districts are
covered. This further increases to NPR 47.5
billion if all households in the 14 most-affected
districts are covered. If all households in the
affected 31 districts are covered, the estimated
welfare losses reach NPR 63 billion.
The recovery strategy seeks to promote the adoption and expansion of social protection where it
is absent or where coverage and levels of benefits
are low in terms of social assistance, social insurance and work-related measures. Initiatives that
support steps in this direction include:
• in the short term: the provision of cash injections through existing cash transfer programmes, providing assistance to vulnerable
groups in affected districts and improving
social protection service delivery;
• in the medium term: finalizing the draft
National Framework for Social Protection
(properly costed), further strengthening of
administrative systems for efficient roll-out
of social protection service delivery with particular emphasis on quickly scalable disaster
responsiveness, temporary social protection
schemes, as well as enactment of the Unified
Social Security Act; and
• in the long term: addressing the coverage
gaps in the current social protection system,
developing an integrated system for all social
protection programmes, and addressing different kinds of contingencies and risk management following the concept of minimum
social protection benefits based on the ILO
Social Protection Floors Recommendation,
2012 (No. 202).
Pre-Disaster Context
and Baseline
Nepal is in the process of establishing a comprehensive national social protection system
based on social insurance principles and the
concept of minimum social protection benefits.
The Interim Constitution of 2007 provides for
a series of basic rights, such as the right to food
sovereignty (Article 16), free education up to
secondary level (Article 17), prevent children
from economic exploitation and entering into
any form of hazardous work (Article 22), and
the right to employment and social security
(Article 18). Important clauses also address the
right to equality (Article 13), the right against
untouchability and racial discrimination (Article 14), and the right to information (Article
27). The last two Three Year Plans (2007-2010
and 2010-2013) laid emphasis on inclusive development. The National Planning Commission
(NPC) has drafted a framework, which utilizes
the social protection floor approach in furthering the social protection system in Nepal. The
current 13th Plan underscores the need to ensure a minimum social protection floor for all,
as articulated in the draft framework.
Formal Sector Social Insurance
Social insurance systems currently cover only
239
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
formal sector workers, such as teachers, civil servants, and the army and police. Any private enterprise with more than 10 employees may join
the Employees Provident Fund on a voluntary
basis, while all enterprises may join the retirement plan under the Citizen Investment Trust.
However, there is no mandatory social insurance
provision for the private sector.
In June 2011, the government established the
Social Security Fund (SSF) which has approximately one million declared members, both
from the public and private sectors. However, the SSF has not yet rolled out any benefit
scheme to its members.
The Budget Speech of 2014-2015 mentions that
‘the Unified Social Security Act will be enacted
for the effective implementation of social security programmes’. In accordance with the ILO
Social Security (Minimum Standards) Convention, 1952 (No. 102), the following nine social
security schemes are currently under consideration: (i) medical care, (ii) sickness benefits, (iii)
unemployment benefits, (iv) old-age benefits,
(v) employment injury benefits, (vi) family
benefits, (vii) maternity benefits, (viii) invalidity benefits, and (ix) survivors’ benefits. It is
currently planned that these nine branches of
social security will be implemented in a phased
manner, starting with schemes for unemployment benefits, maternity benefits, medical care,
sickness cash benefits and employment injury
benefits through the SSF.
Employmen-Related Social
Transfer Programmes
In terms of its coverage and public expenditure,
the labour market-based social protection system
is by far the most underdeveloped area in Nepal.
Food or cash-for-work programmes aimed at
food security at the local level, through the construction of public infrastructure such as roads,
schools or health centres, have been in place for
many years. They have the common objective of
improving rural infrastructure and generating
employment for the poor, which are self-targetted. An employment related social transfer programme, the Karnali Employment Programme,
was introduced in 2006 as a labour market-based
World Bank, 2014; Khanal, 2013; Koehler et al. 2009
77
240
social protection programme. In addition, the
Rural Community Infrastructure Works (RCIW)
is under implementation from 1990 in the food
insecure areas of Western and Far Western Regions to provide benefits to poor communities.
Social Assistance
The government runs a wide variety of social assistance programmes. They include the universal
old-age pension for all citizens above a certain
age; the child protection grant for children under
five among disadvantaged castes or those living
in particularly deprived regions; a disability allowance; education-related social transfers such
as caste-based stipends, school meals in government schools, cash transfers to endangered ethnic
communities, support to the families of martyrs
and victims of conflicts; and a birthing grant to
financially subsidize the cost of access to health
facilities for women in remote areas.
The current portfolio of social assistance programmes is intended to address vulnerabilities
across the life-cycle.77 However, significant overlaps and coverage gaps persist.
For example, the child grant, which is intended
to help improve the nutrition of young children,
is presently limited to households in the Karnali
area and only Dalits in the rest of the country.
In addition, the scheme is limited to two children per household, thus leaving a number of
children in poor households with no coverage.
The level of benefits provided under different social assistance schemes are small and not indexed
to inflation. As a consequence, they have little
impact in reducing poverty or other intended
outcomes, such as food security or improved
child nutrition. In short, despite the existence
of a wide range of programmes that seemingly
address most life-cycle contingencies, many of
these programmes are inadequate in fully and efficiently addressing these contingencies.
Baseline Profile of Households
in Affected Areas
Data from National Living Standard Survey
(NLSS) 2010-2011 and Population and Housing Census 2011 was used to sketch a general
profile of the households in the affected areas.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
The NLSS data does not allow district-level estimates because the survey is designed to be representative at 14 analytical domains, where each
domain includes multiple districts or specific
areas of a district (urban areas, for example).
For the purposes of this PDNA, it is sufficient
to select the analytical domains that correspond
closely to the 14 most-affected districts.
Labour Income
Households in the mountainous districts rely
predominantly on the agriculture sector. Farm
income is approximately 39 percent of total income in the mountains and agriculture is the
primary sector of employment for 60 percent
of household heads. Farm income constitutes a
small proportion of total income in urban hills
(17 percent) and is smaller still in Kathmandu
Valley (1 percent). Corresponding to the income
shares, the share of household heads employed
in agriculture is 3 percent in Kathmandu Valley
and 34 percent in urban hills. The share of nonfarm wage income is the highest in Kathmandu
Valley (41 percent) and it forms roughly a quarter of total income in other areas. Household
heads are predominantly wage- or self-employed
in non-agriculture sectors in urban areas.
Non-labour Income
The primary source of non-labour income is
housing rent. On average, almost two-fifths of
total income of households in Kathmandu Valley
comes from renting out houses. Housing rent is a
less important source of income for households in
the mountain region or other rural areas.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Transfer income/other Sources of Income
Remittances constitute an important share
of total income for households in all regions.
From a high of 22 percent in rural Western
hills to 10 percent in Kathmandu Valley, remittances from internal or external migrants
are important lifelines for households in the affected areas. Other sources of income, including returns on investment, private pension,
and social insurance and social assistance programmes form a relatively small share (2 to 6
percent) of total income in these areas.
Vulnerability Profile
On average, the share of households with at least
one PWD member, single woman, children aged
0-5 and elderly (aged 65 or older) is 8.3 percent,
10 percent, 21 percent and 41 percent, respectively. However, there is a lot of variation across
districts and across earthquake-affected areas. Table 19.1 shows the percentage share of vulnerable
households across earthquake-affected districts.
The share of households with children in affected
districts is relatively higher than the overall average, while the share of households with elderly
is relatively lower in affected districts. About 60
percent of households have a household member
from at least one vulnerable group.
Framework of Analysis
A rapid welfare analysis was conducted by the
team to measure the effects and impacts of the
earthquakes. Consumption is used as the proxy
for welfare, since the primary aim of social protection is to ensure that household consump-
Table 19.1: Vulnerability Profile of Households in Affected Areas
% of households with a
disabled member*
% of households with
a single woman**
% of households with
children (aged 0-5)
% of households with
an elderly (age 65 or
above)
Crisis hit +
8.8
9.0
33.4
27.5
Crisis hit
6.4
8.4
35.3
20.2
10.6
9.4
37.3
24.3
9.5
11.6
35.4
25.0
Slightly affected
12.0
10.9
38.7
24.6
All districts
8.26
9.6
20.7
40.9
District categories
Hit with heavy losses
Hit
Source: World Bank calculation based on Housing and Population Census 2011
Notes: * This includes those with the following: physical disability, blindness and low vision, deafness, speech problem, mental Illness and intellectual disability; ** This includes widows,
divorced and separated but excludes never married.
241
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
tion does not fall below some minimum threshold. Baseline consumption levels are estimated
from NLSS 2010-2011 and post-earthquake
consumption is simulated using reasonable assumptions on the severity of the earthquakes
and the size and direction of shocks on various
income sources.
Households face negative income and consumption shocks due to the earthquakes for a
number of reasons. Many households have lost
their primary bread winner while others have
incurred catastrophic health expenditure on
medical treatment of the injured. Household
labour has been diverted from productive activities to caring for the injured, clearing rubble,
making alternative arrangements for shelter, and
rebuilding damaged houses. Along with their
dwellings, many agricultural households have
lost seeds, fertilizers, cattle, draught animals and
agricultural equipment, inputs that they rely on.
Households with enterprises have lost places of
business and physical assets. Homeowners who
rented out part of their dwelling and whose
house was damaged stand to lose rent income,
an issue particularly relevant in urban areas. In
the aftermath of the earthquakes, there has been
a large outflow of migrants from Kathmandu
and other urban areas. This includes those who
have returned temporarily to help in relief and
rebuilding and those who are considering never
to return to areas of seismic risk. The time migrants spend away from their economic activity
cause earnings losses.
To model the impact of the earthquakes on
household welfare, three sources of income are
identified: labour, non-labour and transfer in-
come. Labour income constitutes income from
the agriculture sector, wage employment in nonagricultural sectors, and income from enterprises.
The largest share of non-labour income is rent
from dwellings. Finally, private remittances from
household members residing inside or outside the
country dominate transfer income. Table 19.2
outlines the framework to analyze the effects and
impact of the earthquakes on income and, consequently, consumption. The magnitude of income losses depends on the intensity of the earthquake in the district, source of labour income, if
a household rents out part of a dwelling, and if
it receives remittances from household members
residing inside and/or outside the country.78
Disaster Effects and Impacts
In the assessment model used, it is assumed that
the impact of the earthquakes was more severe
on the agriculture sector. The earthquakes occurred just before the main planting season. At a
time when farmers should have been busy making preparations for transplanting paddy, they
lost household labour due to the death of family
members, found themselves injured or caring for
the injured, and busy clearing rubble. The loss
of agricultural inputs may cause severe decline
in agricultural productivity in the coming season. Some households have been displaced from
their area of residence because their settlements
have been deemed unsafe due to continuing risk
of landslides. Such households have lost access
to their plots of land for cultivation. To the extent that households derive a significant share of
total calories from home-produced food, poor
harvests will cause severe food deprivation. Net
food buying households will suffer further due
to loss of purchasing power.
Table 19.2: Framework for Analysis for Welfare Shocks
Consumption
Income
Intensity of earthquake
Labour income
Non-labour income
Transfer income
Private
Agriculture
Rent
Internal remittance
Social insurance
Salary/wage
Interest
External remittance
Social assistance
Own economic enterprise
Pension
A note on the assessment methodology is provided at the end of the chapter.
78
242
Public
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
In contrast, households that rely predominantly
on non-agricultural sectors are likely to experience smaller shortfalls and a relatively faster recovery profile. Disruption to the income stream
of salaried individuals employed in the formal
sector is likely to be relatively minor. Once the
economy picks up and commerce resumes, wage
employed individuals, especially in sectors like
construction and tourism, are likely to see their
incomes return faster to pre-crisis levels.
International migration and remittances are expected to increase after the earthquakes. Anecdotal evidence suggests that while some migrants
living outside the country have returned to help
affected family members, this is expected to be
temporary. In the medium term, external migration is expected to rise with earthquake-related
employment losses. Meanwhile, month-onmonth growth of international remittances has
increased by 35 to 40 percent in May according
to Nepal Remitter’s Association. There is empirical evidence that international remittances serve
as consumption insurance and respond to domestic shocks counter-cyclically.
Households that let out part of their dwellings on
rent and whose houses were damaged will see a
severe decline in income. A substantial portion of
the households in Kathmandu Valley and other
urban areas have dwellings given on rent and it
forms a sizable component of total income.
Finally, we also anticipate a general slowdown in
economic activity due to closure or disruption of
transportation networks and markets, de-population of urban areas in the hills, loss in productivity due to psychological trauma, and impact on
tourism and other sectors of the economy.
The severity of the earthquakes varies across
districts but is assumed to be the same within
a district. We use the share of private houses
damaged, a continuous variable, as the measure of the severity of the earthquakes. This
statistic will be used as an indicator of the
probability that a household incurred losses.
For example, if 80 percent of dwellings in a
district was damaged, either fully or partially,
we assume that a household in that district
had an 80 percent chance of being directly affected by the earthquake.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Total household consumption, expressed in
2010 prices in the NLSS 2010-2011 data, was
expressed in 2015 prices using CPI inflator
available from the world development indicator database. In addition, to account for secular
increase in household welfare due to economic
growth, household consumption was updated
with the assumption of distribution neutral
growth, i.e., total household consumption of
all households increased uniformly by the GDP
growth rate between 2010 and 2014.
Corresponding to the loss function detailed in
Table 19.3, post-earthquake consumption is calculated in the following manner:
Post-earthquake
consumption = 0.95*(pre-earthquake consumption) if household is not
directly affected
Post-earthquake
consumption
= 0.95*pre-earthquake consumption *((share of agriculture
income*0.7) + (share of nonagriculture wage income*0.9) +
(share of enterprise income*0.9)
+ (share of internal remittance*0.9) + (share of external
remittance*1.1)) if household
is directly affected where the
probability of being affected
is the proportion of dwellings
in the district partially or fully
destroyed.
Table 19.3: Effect of Earthquakes on
Income of Affected Households
Agricultural income
- 30%
Wage income from nonagriculture
- 10%
Enterprise income
- 10%
Housing rent
- 100%
Internal remittance
- 10%
External remittance
+ 10%
Economy wide effects
-5%
Probability of being affected =Share of dwelling in
the district partially or fully destroyed
*Source: Nepal Disaster Risk Reduction Portal
243
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Figure 19.1 below shows the simulated shortfall
in total household consumption by district. First,
household consumption is minimally affected in
the east and the west of the country, away from
the epicentres of the earthquakes, other than
through the secular economy-wide effect. Second, the shortfall is 20 percent or more in the
most-affected districts of Ramechhap, Dolakha,
Sindhupalchowk, Kavrepalanchowk, Dhading,
Nuwakot and Rasuwa. Third, despite the proximity of Lalitpur, Bhaktapur and Kathmandu
districts to the epicentres, the districts fare better
because of proportionately fewer damaged houses
and low reliance on agricultural income.
While the results of the simulation presented
here apply for all households, some households
are more vulnerable than others. Loss of labour
income is likely to be higher in households with
elderly, disabled and young children because of
the need for extra care. The incidence of mental and physical health problems is likely to be
higher among the elderly, disabled and children.
Female-headed households (FHHH) may have
weaker access to formal and informal safety net
systems to fall back on. Households with young
children may cope with the shock by withdrawing older siblings to look after younger ones,
leading to these children missing school and
potentially dropping out.
The needs assessment is done under two scenarios: (i) all households are targeted, and (ii) only
the most vulnerable households are targeted. For
present purposes, we define vulnerable households as one with an elderly (aged 65 or above),
single woman (widowed, divorced, or separated),
disabled, or with children 5 years old or younger.
Welfare Losses for All Households
Table 19.4 shows the estimated total welfare
losses for all households in all districts, all households in the 31 affected districts, or all households in the 14 most-affected districts. The estimated losses in welfare in the entire country
due to the earthquake is over a hundred billion
rupees, a loss of approximately 7 percent. As expected, the proportion of losses is higher in the
31 affected districts and 14 most-affected districts – 8.6 percent and 10.2 percent respectively
– for a value of NPR 63 billion and 47.5 billion.
There is a strong correlation between the
proportion of losses in welfare and the
severity of the earthquakes (Figure 19.2).
Nuwakot, Dolakha and Sindhupalchowk districts, each with a severity index of more than 90
percent, experience welfare losses of 20
percent or higher. The next cluster of districts,
with severity between 60 to 80 percent include
Dhading, Ramechhap, Rasuwa, Gorkha and
Kavrepalanchowk and face welfare losses of 15
to 20 percent. Dhading and Nuwakot districts
fare worse than expected given the severity of the
earthquakes because, among the most-affected
districts, their reliance on agricultural income is
relatively high – 68 and 66 percent respectively.
Figure 18.2: Agricultural Damage and Loss by Gender
0.3
.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
244
Dadeldhura
Darchula
Banke
Surkhet
Jajarkot
Jumla
Mugu
Bajura
Achham
Kailali
Salyan
Arghakhanchi
Rolpa
Palpa
Rupandehi
Lamjung
Syangja
Manang
Myagdi
Baglung
Makwanpur
Bara
Chitawan
Kathmandu
Rasuwa
Sarlahi
Ramechhap
Sindhupalchok
Lalitpur
Sankhuwasabha
Solukhumbu
Khotang
Saptari
Dhanusa
Ilam
Morang
Dhankuta
0
Taplejung
0.05
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 19.4: Estimated Welfare Losses
All households
Value of loss (In NPR)
Proportion losses
Number of affected households
63 billion
0.083
528149
47.5 billion
0.100
485777
31 affected districts
14 most-affected districts
Table 19.5: Estimated Welfare Losses of Vulnerable Households
Vulnerable households
Value of loss (in billion)
Proportion loss
Number of affected households
31 affected districts
32.7
0.085
301473
14 most-affected districts
23.5
0.105
276255
Compared to the correlation between the proportion of loss and severity, the correlation
between the level of loss and severity is weaker
(Figure 19.2) because some hardest-hit districts
have lower baseline levels. Of the eight districts
with severity of 60 percent or higher, five have
average welfare losses less than would be expected, evidenced by their position below the line of
best fit. In contrast, loss levels in Kathmandu,
Bhaktapur and Lalitpur are far above the line of
best fit as they start from a higher baseline level.
From the social protection perspective, the
amount necessary to restore the welfare of
households is the level of welfare losses. For
this purpose, the relevant measure is the average welfare loss of directly affected households,
as the state cannot be expected to lessen the
burden of households resulting from a general
contraction of the economy.
The necessary level of transfer in the districts
in Kathmandu Valley ranges from NPR 78000
in Lalitpur to about NPR 1,50,000 in Kathmandu. In comparison, in districts like Sindhupalchowk, Dolakha, Ramechhap, Rasuwa and
Dhading, the necessary transfer amount to fully
restore the lost household welfare of affected
households ranges from NPR 40,000 – NPR
50,000 because of the lower baseline level of
welfare in the districts.
Welfare Losses for Vulnerable
Households
The losses experienced by vulnerable households in the 31 affected and 14 most-affected
districts (Table 19.5 below) represent a slightly
larger share of household welfare compared to
the average. Vulnerable households experience
losses of 8.5 and 10.5 percent in the 31 and 14
districts respectively, compared to 8.3 and 10
percent for all households.
Although vulnerable households do not appear
to suffer disproportionately from the earthquakes, there are reasons to think they will have
a slower path to recovery and are vulnerable to
irreversible damages. First, if the earthquakes resulted in disability among any of the household
members, then the household’s earning capacity
may be temporarily or, at worse, permanently
affected. Second, able members may also reallocate a portion of their working hours as well
as their monetary resources to care for disabled
family members. This holds true for households
with elderly members. Third, children in these
households are at risk of child labour, dropping
out from school and higher rates of malnutrition. This may have irreversible damage on
these children’s human capital.
This analytical approach is subject to a number of limitations. First, the estimates for losses do not account for an increasing need to
consume more goods and services to address
earthquake-related health problems and to
rebuild damaged properties. Second, the model
does not account for no-income transmission
mechanisms that affect welfare. For example,
it does not account for the possible impact of
higher prices (induced by supply shocks) on
welfare. This may be marginal because prices
have not noticeably increased one month after the disaster. Lastly, the number of vulnerable households is fixed in the model. As such,
the calculated losses and amount of social
protection needed to restore welfare can be interpreted as lower bounds.
245
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
25
Nuwakot
Dolakha
Dhading
15
Okhaldhunga
Rasuwa
Gorkha
Ramechhap
Kavrepalanchok
Solukhumbu
Sindhuli
Bhaktapur
Makwanpur
Sankhuwasabha
Dang
Lamjung
Dhakuta
Kathmandu
Salyan
n
Salya
Arghakhanchi
Salyan
Arghakhanchi
0.00
0.20
0.40
Nuwakot
Okhaldhunga
Solukhumbu
Kaski
Sindhuli
Mugu
Makwanpur
Chitwan
Sahkhuwasabha
Nawal
parais
Okhaldhunga
Rupandehi
Lamjung
Morang
Terathum
Kapilvastu
Khotang
Tamghas
Chitwan
Morang
Chitwan
Arghakhanchi
Mugi
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.00
Underlying Risks and Vulnerabilities
Malnutrition
Malnutrition rates in children in Nepal are
among the highest in the world; 41 percent of
children under five are stunted. Poor infant- and
child-feeding practices are prevalent – only 24.4
percent of children between six and 24 months
are fed adequately and 13.4 percent of babies are
born with low birth weights to mothers below
20 years of age. Almost half (48 percent) of the
pregnant women are anaemic and chronic energy deficiency in women remains high, at 23.9
percent in the Far Western region and 19.3 percent in the Mid-Western region.79
Gender
Women continue to experience greater vulnerability to poverty and score lower in other areas
of human development because of gender‐based
discriminatory practices, unequal access to services like health and education, and inequitable
control over resources such as property. In terms
of employment, males dominate in formal sector employment and majority of informal sector
workers are female. Female workers account for
only about 3.5 per cent of the non-agricultural
formal sector, while the agricultural sector is
fully female dominated. Women in the informal
sector have job insecurity, low wages, long working hours, no fringe benefits and no incentive
World Bank, 2014
World Bank, 2014
80
246
Kavrepalanchok
Gorkha
Kathmandu
Lalitpur
Severity
79
Dolakha
Bhaktapur
Sindhupalchok
Dhading Rasuwa
Ramechhap
.05
.05
.1
% Shortfall
2
Sindhupalchok
Average consumption shortfall
20000
60000 80000
40000
Figure 19.2: Proportion of Consumption Shortfall and Correlation between Severity of Shock and
Average Welfare Loss
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
Severity
earnings. On the other hand, it is usually women who will be out of a job in case of any losses
in the informal economy. Social protection measures applied in the employment sector usually
protect workers in the formal sector and tend
to exclude women working in the informal sector. The situation makes women of earthquakeaffected districts more vulnerable and inhibits
their ability to recover from damages as a result
of the earthquakes.
Education
The Ministry of Education (MoE) provides four
types of basic education (grades 1-8) scholarships for girls, Dalits, the disabled and marginalized ethnic groups. These scholarships are aimed
at enhancing gender equity and inclusion.
The MoE also provides a secondary education
(grades 9-10) scholarship for the same groups.
Other scholarships are targeted at various categories: martyrs’ children, the conflict-affected,
freed Kamalaris (victims of bonded labour or
domestic slavery as young girls), and students in
model schools and feeder hostels. The secondary scholarship for Dalits is NPR 500 per year,
while for the disabled it is NPR 1700 per year.
Similarly, the secondary scholarship for martyrs’
children is NPR 18,000 per year, while for the
conflict-affected it is NPR 14,000. The extent of
overlap among the scholarships or the impact of
each has not been fully analysed.80
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Governance
Strengthening the administrative systems that
distribute social assistance to beneficiaries is an
important issue. Therefore, policy decisions are
needed either for relaxing or making alternative
provisions for transferring social assistance to
those who have lost documents due to damages
that have occurred to their own houses or loss
of records due to damage to VDC buildings.
Similarly, it is important to improve accountability in the implementation of social protection programmes, and introduce/strengthen
downward accountability mechanisms by mobilizing Ward Citizen Forums (WCFs) to play
civic oversight functions.
this age group. On the basis of population
projections from 2011 census data, a total of
30,980 children (16,050 male and 14,928 female) were already engaged in child labour in
the 31 affected districts before the earthquakes.
The situation has further worsened for children
in the disaster-affected districts with schools,
institutions and social services (that would normally engage and care for these children) being
damaged or destroyed, children have become
more vulnerable to trafficking. Additionally,
the loss of family members and their income
and livelihoods is the most significant risk factor contributing to children becoming involved
in child labour.
People living with HIV/AIDS
There are an estimated 78,000 affected people
residing in the 14 hardest hit districts in Nepal.
Out of the 53 Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) sites
in the country, 16 are located within these 14
districts. As of December 2014, there are 2,940
reported people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV)
(1,854 male, 1,079 female and seven transgender
people) in these affected districts, of which 2,463
are receiving ART services from the 16 ART sites.
After the earthquakes, as per emergency relief response, ART has been ensured for a period of two
months through the joint efforts of communities,
government and partners. However, other essentials, including shelter, food, nutrition, livelihood
support, safe drinking water and hygiene, also
need to be ensured. There are 223 children (113
male and 110 female) with HIV residing in these
districts who are getting cash support though a
Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and
Malaria grant.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
Child Labour
The ILO Nepal Child Labour Report81 provides
statistical data on working children aged 5-17
years (40.4 percent of total child population
in 2008), of which nearly 51 percent (around
1.6 million) are child labourers. Of these child
labourers, nearly 20 percent (or 621,000) were
found to be engaged in hazardous child labour,
with girls dominating. As per the National Labour Force Survey Report, 2008, the labour
force participation of under-14 children constitutes nearly 34 percent of all children among
81
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Short-term Strategy (FY 2015-2016)
Emergency Top-ups in Existing Cash Transfers
It is recommended to provide a temporary benefits top-ups in social assistance allowances for
senior citizens, single women, people with disabilities, and endangered ethnicities in the 14
affected districts. Two rounds of emergency topups, each for NPR 3,000 per beneficiary, should
be extended. This support should be delivered
together with the next social assistance payments
which will be due in June 2015; a second payment is foreseen in September 2015 (before the
Dashain festival).
In order to improve the delivery of social assistance by reducing human errors, digitization of
beneficiary data is suggested. The establishment
of a beneficiary registry, which is unified across
districts and accessible online, could ensure
timely updating of critical information such as
registration of new beneficiaries, updating of vital event data and verification of payments to
individual beneficiaries.
Scaling up the Child Grant in 11
Earthquake-affected Districts
In addition to the top-ups, it is recommended the
child grant in the most-affected districts be scaled
up. While the short-term emergency top-ups are
being implemented, the process of identification
of all children under five years old in 11 most-
ILO, 2012
247
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
affected districts will be initiated. It is expected to
take a couple of months to identify and register
all children under the age of five years. This will
allow the government to scale-up and universalize the child grant to all 14 districts most severely
affected by the earthquake. This intervention
would have a triple effect: (i) it would signal to
the population that the government is doing what
is in its capacity to help them; (ii) it would serve
as an immediate response to the economic needs
of the affected population; (iii) it would maintain coherence in the system of social protection,
while at the same time contributing to the vision
of a consolidated system under the planned social
protection framework.
School Feeding Programme
There is a need to address the issue of vulnerability of children, which will affect their nutritional status and/or those potentially at risk
of dropping out from schools. To address the
situation, it is suggested to introduce a mid-day
meal programme (school feeding programme)
as assistance to all children affected by the
earthquakes, at least for a period of six months.
This is expected to have the following positive effects: (i) improved school enrollment,
(ii) improved school attendance and retention
through the day, (iii) socialization to overcome
caste and gender prejudices, and (iv) in-kind
support to poor families.
Identification of Beneficiaries
All eligible beneficiaries can be identified as per
the government list of social assistance available
in VDCs and municipalities. Given the urgency,
this is the best option for the identification of
beneficiaries in the emergency phase. Targeting
would require some three to four months while
identifying beneficiaries. This delay would not
be helpful in the immediate recovery phase of
a disaster that has affected large numbers of the
population. Children of the pre-primary level
and students up to secondary level who have lost
their parents in the earthquakes can be identified as new beneficiaries. These children can be
assisted through the school feeding programme.
Child-friendly Local Governance
From a social accountability perspective, it is very
important that duty bearers are informed of the
vulnerability of children. Children’s participation
in relief recovery and rehabilitation is considered
248
therapeutic to deal with traumatic events. Equally
important is to build the capacities of children,
since their ability to take action can enhance
information delivery, assessments and consultation processes. Child-friendly local governance
(CFLG), therefore, provides a platform for local
bodies to support issues related to children.
Strengthening Social Protection: MIS-linking
with Vital Registration
In order to realize gains in efficiency and effectiveness, significant investments are necessary to
modernize and upgrade the current administrative systems for social protection, in particular
the cash transfer system. The disaster provides
an opportunity to turn the administrative system into a paperless one. The introduction of
an effective MIS would reduce human error as
well as undue discretionary power of officials
and decision-makers. The establishment of a
comprehensive household registry with family folders, which is unified across districts and
accessible online, could ensure timely updating
of critical information such as registration of
new beneficiaries, updating of vital event data
and verification of payments to individual beneficiaries. The MoFALD has already developed
an MIS for cash transfers and is rolling out its
use across select 14 districts to facilitate digitization of beneficiary data. The roll-out of this
MIS across another 14 districts could similarly
ensure better record-keeping, transparency and
transfer delivery. The MIS of the SSF for the
design and delivery of the five selected social
security schemes and for other labour marketbased social protection schemes also needs to be
strengthened. In the context of Nepal, it is to
be expected that establishing a robust MIS will
have cross-sectoral external effects on strengthening policy implementation as well.
Costing of the MIS Roll-out
Rolling out the MIS system in the affected districts needs both institutional capacity building
and technology support. Thus, some equipment
and human resource support will be needed to
make the MIS functional. The tentative cost for
rolling out the MIS system in 14 affected districts would amount to around US$275,000.
Strengthening the Capacity of Service Providers
Implementation and monitoring of social assistance and social insurance programmes rely on
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
the existing administrative structure at the local
level, such as VDCs for MoFALD cash transfers, schools for MoE scholarships and SSF for
rolling out different social security schemes. To
overcome the capacity constraint of these service
providers, significant investments of human and
financial resources is required. To supplement
existing monitoring and evaluation systems,
with specific focus on tracking potentially lasting impacts of the earthquakes among affected
households, it would be advisable to carry out
waves of household surveys with a sample large
enough to be representative at the district level,
at least over the next few years.
Medium-term Perspective (FY 2016-2017
to FY 2017-2018)
Finalization of the National Framework for
Social Protection
The NPC is currently preparing a properly costed
National Framework for Social Protection (20122022) under an effort led by the National Steering Committee on Social Protection Framework.
This is a crucial process, since one important effect of the completed Framework would be to
provide a common strategy, such as one based on
a life-cycle approach. The document would provide the conceptual framework for building a nationally determined social protection floor on the
basis of which policy and operational coherence
and harmonization of different social protection
provisions could be ensured, and adequate levels of social protection could be provided to all
members of society throughout their life-cycle.
The Framework should also emphasise the value
of social protection schemes for disaster preparedness. This would pave the way for envisaged longterm interventions.
Strengthening the Administrative Systems
through Electronic Payments System
An electronic payments system would help ensure payments to beneficiaries are processed on
time, in the right amount, and generally in a
more accessible manner. The MoFALD started
a branchless banking pilot in five districts in FY
2013-2014. The use of biometrics by banks to
verify the identity of the individual beneficiaries
helps ensure that the cash allowance is received by
the intended beneficiary. In the context of building back better, a Single Window Service (SWS)
could be introduced, which is a one-stop shop for
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
the delivery of social protection programmes and
employment services at the local level. Families
register in a single office at the district level. A
social worker takes charge of them and evaluates their needs. Based on the identified needs,
the social worker proposes an integrated package
of programmes and services (social assistance,
skills and employment support) provided by the
government, development partners and NGOs.
Thus, the SWS performs the following tasks on
behalf of service providers: (i) information desk,
(ii) registration of households, (iii) collection of
information, (iv) vulnerability assessment and
skills assessment, (v) up-dation of database, (vi)
enrollment of families under the appropriate
services and programmes, and (vii) collection of
contributions. The SWS goes hand-in-hand with
an integrated MIS.
Enactment of the Unified Social Security Act
Following the Budget Speech of 2014-2015,
by enacting Unified Social Security Act,nine
branches of social security will be implemented
in a phased manner, starting with the schemes
for unemployment benefits, maternity benefits,
medical care, sickness cash benefits and employment injury benefits through the SSF. Poor and
vulnerable households will be provided with cash
and other labour market-based social protection
based on the Poor Household Identification Survey of the 14 most-affected districts by the Ministry of Cooperatives and Poverty Alleviation. Coverage of schemes will be progressively extended to
all workers and their families in Nepal.
Long-term Perspective (FY 2018-2019
to 2019-2020)
Goal: Addressing the coverage gaps in the current social protection system, and developing an
integrated system across all social protection programmes addressing different kinds of contingencies and risks.
Enhancing the poverty impact of current mix of
social protection schemes by the extension of social
protection measures to provide a basic income to
all in need of such protection and comprehensive
medical care through an efficient administrative
system and prudent fiscal management.
As per the Article 18 of the Interim Constitution, National Framework for Social Protection
249
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
and the ILO’s Social Protection Floors Recommendation No. 202, the coverage gaps should
be closed through appropriate and effectively
coordinated social protection schemes, whether
contributory or non-contributory, or both, including through the extension of existing contributory schemes to all concerned persons with
contributory capacity. Considering the fiscal
sustainability of existing non-contributory social insurance schemes, there is an urgent need
to design and implement contributory pension
products in the country. Raising public awareness about the benefits of such contributory
pension system should be an inherent part of
long-term social protection strategy.
Social assistance should be extended to all the
poor and vulnerable households identified by
the Poor Household Identification Survey by the
Ministry of Cooperatives and Poverty Alleviation.
Recognizing constitutional provision of social
protection as a human right and a socio-economic necessity in the presence of recurring
natural and non-natural disasters, it is recommended that social protection should mainstreamed in the overall disaster management
strategy of the country.
Assessment Methodology
To analyze the impact of the earthquake on
Table 19.6: Summary Costs for Implementation of Needs Strategy
Intervention
Quantity
Unit
description
Cost per
unit (NPR)
Total
(NPR)
Assumptions
To all existing social protection beneficiaries
229657
Person
6,000
1,377,942,000
To Dalit children below
5 years
30000
Person
6,000
180,000,000
Top-up to all children below five years for two
months for 11 districts out of the 14 most-affected districts, excluding Valley districts
Child-friendly local
governance (CFLG)
14
Districts
10,080,000
141,120,000
As per estimates received from MoFALD
Strengthening of the
Management Information System (MIS) of
MoFALD and SSF
14
Districts
2,142,860
30,000,040
Short term
Emergency top-up
School feeding
500000
Districts
3,300
1,650,000,000
14
Districts
645,000
9,030,000
1
Document
10,000,000
10,000,000
Electronic payments
system
75
Districts
6,666,666
499,999,950
Enactment of Social
Security Act
1
Document
250000
Households
75
Districts
Capacity building training for VDC, DDC, DEO
and SSF
Top-up of two installments to all cash transfer
beneficiaries for 11 districts out of the 14 mostaffected districts, excluding Kathmandu Valley
districts
As per estimates received from MoFALD and
training requirement of SSF
As per estimates received from MoE
As per estimates received from MoFALD, MoE
and SSF
Medium term
Finalisation of SP
Framework
Targeted social assistance to the poor and
vulnerable households
As per ILO estimates
As per estimates received from MoFALD
NA
10000
2,500,000,000
Based on the Poor Household Identification Survey by the Ministry of Cooperatives and Poverty
Alleviation for the 14 most-affected districts
NA
Will be estimated after the approval of properlycosted National Framework for Social Protection
and based on the Poor Household Identification
Survey by the Ministry of Cooperatives and
Poverty Alleviation for the whole country
Long term
Strengthening social
protection institutions
for addressing coverage
gaps
Total
250
6,398,091,990
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
social protection needs, we conducted welfare
analysis by examining the likely impact on
household consumption due to the earthquakes.
The social protection needs arising from the disaster is the amount needed to help households
afford their original level of consumption.
Annual consumption of households in the
absence of the earthquakes is estimated from
the Nepal Living Standards Survey (NLSS)
2010-2011 adjusting for inflation and economic growth. To estimate the drop in annual
household consumption due to the earthquake,
a number of assumptions are made. First, we
allow a household to be affected either directly,
due to damage to its dwelling, loss of a family
member, or loss of an income earner, or indirectly due to the weakness in the overall economy.
The probability that a household is directly affected is equal to the severity of the earthquake
in the district of its residence.82 If, for example,
the severity of a district is 60 percent, we randomly select 60 percent of the households in the
district to be directly affected.
For the directly affected households, we calculate the magnitude of the decline in consumption by assuming a consumption shock (conditional on the sources of household income
in the baseline scenario) weighted by the share
of the source of income to total income. We
assume that the impact of the earthquake is
the most severe on agriculture sector. In comparison, households that rely predominantly
on non-agricultural sectors are likely to experience smaller shortfalls and a relatively faster
recovery profile. While domestic remittances is
expected to decline, international remittances
are expected to increase after the earthquake.
We assume the secular fall in consumption due
to the weakness in the overall economy to be 5
percent, i.e., consumption of unaffected households in affected districts and all households in
unaffected districts falls by 5 percent. These
assumptions are further discussed in the text.
82
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
The loss in household consumption compared
to if there was no earthquake, and the aggregate
losses gives the cost of a social protection program that will cover the consumption losses of
affected households. Since vulnerable households
– households with elderly, single women,people
with disabilities, and children under the age of 5
– are likely to have a more difficult time to recover, we also estimate the loss to these households
in particular.
References
International Labour Conference (2012). Social Protection Floors Recommendation
No. 202. Available at: http://www.ilo.org/dyn/
normlex/en/f?p=NORMLEXPUB:12100:0::N
O::P12100_INSTRUMENT_ID:3065524
Khanal, Dilli Raj (2013). Social Security/Social Protection in Nepal: Situation Analysis,
ILO Country Office for Nepal, Kathmandu.
Köhler, Gabriele, Marta Cali, and Mariana
Stirbu (2009). Social Protection in South Asia:
A Review, UNICEF Regional Office for South
Asia.
Köhler, Gabriele and Deepta Chopra (2014).
Development and Welfare Policy in South
Asia. Routledge Explorations in Development
Studies. Routledge, New York.
National Steering Committee on Social Protection Framework (2012). Draft National
Framework for Social Protection (2012-2022).
World Bank (2014). Nepal Social Protection
Study, Improving Social Protection for the
Vulnerable in Nepal: A Review of Social Assistance Programs and Expenditures, Report No.
ACS10594, Washington, DC: World Bank.
Severity of earthquake is the share of fully-damaged houses in the district.
The information is available from http://drrportal.gov.np.
A severity level of 1 implies all the houses in the district were fully damaged.
251
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
252
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
20. Governance
Summary
The ability of the government to lead the postearthquake recovery work has been severely affected by damage to government infrastructure,
the loss and damage to equipment and materials
in government offices, and the loss of vital government records. The governance sector for the
purpose of this PDNA covers: local government
and non-service delivery, national-level institutions concentrating on administrative and rule of
law-related service delivery, as well as civil society.
The Government of Nepal (GoN) urgently
needs to restore functionality to the 1,711 buildings destroyed or damaged in the most-affected
districts as well as those damaged or destroyed
at the central level (including army buildings).
Temporary accommodation will be needed to
ensure the efficient resumption of administrative services and to ensure that local governments can coordinate the recovery. The cost of
damage to the governance sector is estimated at
NPR 18,575 million, with a reconstruction cost
of NPR 15, 413 million and a recovery cost of
NPR 3,028 million based on self-reported data
and information provided to the Ministry of
Federal Affairs and Local Development (MoFALD), Ministry of General Administration,
Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA), the Supreme Court, the Office of the Attorney General, the Nepal Army and the Financial Comptroller-General.
The GoN will work to strengthen governance
systems more broadly in line with the Good
Governance Act of 2006. This will include
strengthening accountability processes, working
collaboratively with civil society, strengthening
citizen service centres and rule of law processes,
and ensuring the participation of the most vulnerable, affected populations in decision-making processes. To achieve this, the staffing and
financial management capacities of the government need to be augmented at the district, municipal and village levels. To best serve recovery
needs of the local population, the government
will look to overcome one of the main challeng-
es of delivering government services, namely,
the capacity and functioning of local bodies. To
date, these challenges include strengthening accountability, ensuring staff are present in their
current positions and trying to reduce the high
turnover of staff.
Pre-Disaster Context
and Baseline
The governance sector of the PDNA is subject to
a number of relevant legislation, including the
Natural Calamity Relief Act 1982, which mandates MoHA as the lead agency for immediate
rescue and relief works as well as disaster preparedness activities. The enactment of the Local
Self-Governance Act (LSGA) in 1999 expanded
the mandates of local bodies, devolving the powers, responsibilities and resources required to allow local governments to meet the basic infrastructure needs of the locality. The LSGA was a
landmark legislation in the devolution of power
and resources in that it established an important
foundation for the provision of socially inclusive
services to the citizenry through grassroots democracy. The Act not only makes arrangements
for ensuring that local bodies are accountable
to their citizens, but also works towards active
citizenship involvement in local democratic processes, including integrated planning processes
and social audits.
Fourteen-Step Planning Process
The government planning process begins with
(1) directives on the budget ceiling for the coming year sent by the National Planning Commission (NPC) and the ministries. District
Development Committee (DDC) officials (2)
review the ceilings and (3) plan formulation
workshops in the local bodies. These workshops
discuss policies, goals and resource availability,
including estimates for each Village Development Committee (VDC). VDCs then convene
(4) meetings on programmes to be implemented at the ward/settlement level. The selection
of programmes occurs at settlement level (5)
involving the villagers, user committees and
other community level organizations. The ward
253
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
committees meet (6) to discuss local grant requests. VDCs then meet (7) to prioritize programmes, prepare resource estimates and select
programmes that can be funded with the VDC
budget. Those that would need external support
are separated for further referral. The next step
(8) involves the Village Council. The Council
approves the programmes and submits them to
the Ilaka-level planning workshop (9). These
workshops prioritize sectoral programmes requested by VDCs and municipalities, which
are then forwarded to DDCs. Sectoral committees in the DDCs review the recommendations
of the Ilakas83 (10), identify those that can be
funded at the district level and those that would
need central support, and send their recommendations to the Integrated Plan Formulation
Committee. This committee reviews the recommendations, prioritizes and submits a draft district development plan to the DDC (11). The
DDC meeting discusses the draft plan along
with the guidelines from NPC and other government agencies and identifies programmes
that can be implemented with local resources
and those that need central government support. This draft plan is sent to the DDC Council (12). The DDC Council approves the final
document (13). The plan and programmes approved by the DDC Council are sent to the
NPC, MoFALD and sectoral ministries. (14)
The approved programmes are included in the
Red Book, the official allocation register.
Specifically, the Local Body Resource Mobilization and Management Operation Guidelines
(LBRMMOG) approved by the Cabinet in
2012 includes a number of procedures to promote accountability and transparency at the
local level. These require local bodies (VDCs,
municipalities and DDCs) to:
• publically display on notice boards and over
radio full details of all programmes or projects with cost estimates of NPR 200,000 and
NPR 500,000 or above;
• make public their income and expenditures
on quarterly and annual basis;
• audit completed projects before a final instalment is paid; and
• conduct social audits at least once a year.
This is in line with Nepal’s 13th Three Year
Plan that includes poverty alleviation, inclusive
An Ilaka generally consists of five to eight VDCs
83
254
growth, social transformation, sustainable peace
and good governance as its major objectives,
along with an emphasis on devolution, decentralization and development of local governance.
The Good Governance Act (GGA) formalizes
this good governance intent by transforming the
system’s administrative structures into service
providers and facilitators with responsibility for
upholding rule of law, promoting human rights,
ensuring government accountability, and encouraging financially prudent and corruptionfree public administration.
The powers relating to justice are exercised by
courts and other judicial institutions in Nepal in
accordance with the provisions of the constitution and other legislation. There are three tiers of
courts: (i) Supreme Court, (ii) appellate courts,
and (iii) district courts. There are altogether 16
appellate courts, 75 districts courts and one Supreme Court, which function as an apex court.
This PDNA pays particularly close attention
to local authorities in the 14 most-affected
districts. The administrative structure of
Nepal is currently divided into three levels:
central, district and local (municipalities
and villages). In terms of build back better,
Nepal’s new federal structure will have to be
considered when making final decisions on reconstruction to ensure greater efficiencies and
effectiveness. Overall, the local government
structure has limited capacities.
There are 75 districts across the country. Each
district has a DDC headed by the Local Development Officer (LDO), who reports to
MoFALD, and a District Administration Office headed by the Chief District Officer, who
reports to MoHA. The Chief District Officer
is responsible for law and order and security.
As elections to local bodies in Nepal have not
been held for more than 13 years, the DDCs are
headed by LDOs pending elections. LDOs are
responsible for coordination with all line departments for development activities such as health,
education, forestry and environment.
In 2014, the government announced the creation of 133 new municipalities (prior to which
there were only 58 municipalities) through a
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
two-round process. Municipalities are cities that
meet minimum criteria in terms of population
and infrastructure. Each municipality has a different structure based upon needs and available
revenues. Many of the newest municipalities are
not yet fully staffed and have not received the
requisite budgets to fulfil their legal mandates.
There are currently 3,276 VDCs in the country.
Usually around 10 percent of the VDC Secretary posts are vacant at any given point. There
are only 81 women Secretaries. Political and administrative commitments have been made by
the GoN to significantly increase the number of
women and diversity candidates within the civil
service. Challenges remain in ensuring presence
of the VDC Secretary, of staffing the VDC assistants’ position, and in ensuring they have
the ability to undertake prime functions that
include issuing vital documents (certificates of
births, deaths and marriages) and, in conjunction with the Ward Citizenship Forum (WCF),
prioritise development plans and monitor activities of line ministries.
The GoN has acknowledged an accountability
gap at the local level due to a number of factors,
including limited GoN staffing at the VDC level, no local elections since 1997, administrative
weaknesses identified in the previous All-Party
Mechanism and lack of official audits of VDC
expenditures. Currently, audits are carried out
but by contracting private firms. There remain
political challenges to holding elections until after the new constitution has been finalized. Procedural requirements imposed on local government bodies with limited capacity and resources,
compounded by political influence on public
finance allocation decisions and other developmental activities, have resulted in an ‘informalization of the processes and procedures of local
governance’, making it difficult for the mechanism to ensure accountability in public services.
While local elections can be a remedy for the
lack of representation and accountability at the
local level, given the uncertainty of such dates,
the government, through its Local Governance
and Community Development Programme
(LGCDP), is working with WCFs and Citizen Awareness Centres (CACs) to strengthen
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
participation and representation in local governance processes. An interim arrangement was
established by MoFALD in 2008 and rolled out
in 2010 where 25 members are selected to the
WCF to undertake many of the functions normally undertaken by the elected Ward Council.
Members are selected with attention to gender
balance and ethnic diversity, including disadvantaged groups. This lack of electoral representation disconnects government from the population during the present planning and delivery of
relief goods and provision of other local services.
Post-Disaster Context
Central government infrastructure damaged by
the earthquakes includes the prime minister’s
office, the NPC, the Election Commission, the
Supreme Court and the personnel records department of the Ministry of General Administration.
The Ministry of General Administration has
been working to ensure that the required staff
for damage assessment and relief work is available, and the government has set up an assessment process for damages at the district and
sub-district level. Over 2,500 civil servants are
currently part of the assessment process, which
is made up of 200 volunteer engineers and 1,300
permanent civil servants from different districts
and the central level. In total, 14 Secretaries, 57
Joint Secretaries, and 60 Under Secretaries were
also deployed from the central government to
the affected areas for periods of one week to a
month in order to help supervise the setting up
of the relief effort.
Daily operations of treasury functions were restored within one week of the first earthquake
with no major effect on fund release or payment
transactions. The main building of the Financial Comptroller-General’s Office has several
cracks and, whilst habitable, may require retrofitting, according to engineering estimates. The
main server in the building, which houses the
financial management information system is operational. Of the five affected District Treasury
Comptroller Offices, daily operations are being
carried out in available space in other offices.
Where information flow is affected due to collapse of buildings, information is still available
in the central server and hence further transactions are still being managed.
255
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Disaster Effects
In total, 1,711 (602 excluding the army) central, district, village and municipal structures
have been fully or partially damaged as per data
received by the team. This includes: district
courts; police buildings; VDC, DDC and municipality offices; appellate attorney, district attorney, bar association and district administration offices; prisons; central ministry buildings
and the District Treasury Comptroller Office.
Of the 580 VDCs in the most-affected districts, 507 (87 percent) possess physical office
buildings. Some of these buildings have been
reduced to piles of rubble whilst others have
severe cracks and have shifted on their foundations, losing roofs and destroying equipment.
Before buildings can be rebuilt, the debris and
rubble from the previous building needs to be
removed. This will include safely removing and
pulling down the destroyed buildings.
After the earthquake on 25 April, the local government structures reoriented their work to coordinating the relief sent by GoN, volunteers
and non-governmental organizations. With
many of the sources of government revenue,
such as business premises, destroyed or damaged, there will be a reduction in the budget for
the affected districts over the coming financial
year due to lost revenue. This will affect their
ability to deliver services.
In terms of the sub-national governance structure
in Nepal, it is worth recognizing the impact
of the small average size of VDCs, which – on
average – have a population of less than 6,000
to 7,000 people. VDCs are generally considered
too small to capture relevant scale economies in
the delivery of public services and are currently
administratively weak. Despite this they have
been called upon to be the frontline in the
recovery process and have been delivering services
to the entire population under the current
administrative structure. They represent one
of the key governance assets for the delivery of
the recovery programming and as such will be
strengthened. However, the proposed future
federal structure of Nepal may require a reduction
in the number of VDCs. One consideration
for government is whether all damaged and
destroyed VDCs should be reinstated, or whether
some restructuring is possible now.
256
The district records of birth, death and marriage
certificates and citizenship certificates is paper
based, as is the information for identity records. Some of these have been lost as 173 VDC
buildings, nine district offices and 11 municipalities have been fully destroyed. These records
are necessary for the reissuance of ID/property
documentation, and issuance of new documents
is necessary to allow the population to receive
relief services and continue to receive regular
services like social security allowances.
The workload of civil servants increased during
the post-earthquake period as the local government structures were responsible for coordinating the relief received from GoN, volunteers and
non-governmental organizations. The VDC
Secretaries are working with the District Disaster Relief Committees (DDRCs) to assist in
distribution of relief (for instance, the cash grant
of NPR 15,000 given as relief grant, and the
LGCDP emergency relief grants to all VDCs
and municipalities); assessment of all damages
at the village level with the MoGA team; assisting in the re-issuing of identity documents;
and coordination and monitoring of relief being
provided by non-governmental organizations
and civil society organizations. Realistically, it
has not been possible for the VDC Secretaries to
accomplish all of this on their own. Therefore,
additional staff are urgently required at the local
level. As much as possible, gender and social inclusion should be encouraged for new positions.
In addition, there has to be clear direction and
delegated authority to the VDC Secretaries for
them to effectively manage relief and recovery.
The VDC Secretary has taken on many of the
responsibilities of the VDC.
Functions of the Supreme Court were disrupted for more than three weeks after the initial
quake. The Supreme Court, under the chief
justice, has responsibility for the administration
of all courts in Nepal, including facilities management. Its building suffered critical damage
and will need to be replaced. The court, at the
time of writing, is still working on establishing
benches in alternative buildings. This will compound the case backlog, which at present stands
at nearly 20,000. At the district level, courts are
just starting to operate again. In some lesser affected areas, the courts have prioritized habeas
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
corpus, serious crimes and any criminal cases
with a looming statute of limitations issue. In
the more heavily-affected districts, courts are offering even more limited services out of tents. In
several districts where the court buildings collapsed, court records have been destroyed/lost.
Lack of appropriate office facilities for the Attorney General will impede the work of prosecutors
and could create additional backlogs.
Beyond structural damage to buildings, the justice sector is facing enormous challenges due
to the fact that the administration of justice in
Nepal is largely still paper based. In the 14 mostaffected districts, records and files have suffered
varying degrees of damage and loss.
The National Women’s Commission and the
National Dalit Commission structures have
suffered damages. To ensure that these national
GoN institutions are able to perform their essential work protecting some of the most vulnerable populations, their buildings should be
assessed and supported.
The Nepal Police is also reporting significant
damage to police stations and posts in various locations (16 different districts). A total of
92 police facilities have suffered some level of
damage. It is not clear how many of these installations are rented and how many are actually
owned by Nepal Police. Even without static facilities, police continue to provide law and order
and, where needed, the Armed Police Force have
deployed troops in tents.
The Nepal Bar Association (NBA) plays an integral role in ensuring access to justice along with
the Ministry of Law and Justice. In a large number of districts, the Supreme Court allocates
land within the district court’s property for the
NBA. It is then that the bar association collects
money from its members to build an office. It is
clear that members of the bar will face difficulty
in raising money at this critical time to fund the
reconstruction themselves. The NBA has lost
two buildings, with four others partially damaged. Without these premises, services to the locally affected communities will likely suffer.
The National Human Rights Commission
(NHRC) building in Kathmandu has suffered
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
severe damage and is no longer habitable. The
loss of this building is impeding the functioning
of the commission, which is a constitutionally
established body with central and regional offices responsible for ensuring the respect, protection and promotion of human rights. There are
numerous files that are at risk of damage or destruction due to the condition of the building.
The commission is expected to have a significant
role in monitoring the situation in earthquakeaffected districts and overseeing the human
rights approach to ensure equitable recovery
planning and implementation.
Several prisons in Nepal were also affected by
the earthquakes. In particular, the central prison
in Kathmandu, Bhadra Bandi Griha, suffered
severe damage. Buildings collapsed, killing 16
inmates and injuring another 23. In Sindhupalchowk, the prison collapsed, allowing more than
200 prisoners to escape. Similarly, in Dolakha
district, a prisoner housing block has collapsed.
The cost of damages to the buildings is NPR
18,757 million, calculated from data available
at the time of the assessment. The data in this
PDNA is from government sources as of 10 June
2015. This includes data from the Nepal Army
that estimated damages for the entire country.
Data gaps remain (e.g., the Ministry of Urban
Development is awaiting more formal estimates of
rebuilding/renovation costs for central-level buildings such as the Election Commission building,
the Office of the Auditor General, the Department
of Personnel of the Ministry of General Administration, etc.). The GoN is carrying out assessments
of damages to the institutions in each of the villages within the 14 most-affected districts. Five
hundred teams have been deployed for this exercise, each team comprising five civil servants. The
results are expected to be ready in mid-June and
will give more detailed information.
As governance is a cross-cutting sector, losses to
revenue and staffing costs will be considered in
the needs assessment of all other sectors.
Disaster Impacts
Before the earthquakes, filling all positions at municipal, district and village levels was challenging.
At the district level, most DDCs had gaps in of257
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
ficer level positions and there were frequent staff
transfers of LDOs, with the standard two-year
term often cut short due to personal preferences
or upon requests from political parties.
larly needed – may become even more difficult
to fill. In some cases, the VDC Secretaries also
feel personally insecure as they are unable to deliver the needed relief. Much of the civil service
housing has been destroyed so until this is rebuilt, the posts are even less attractive. Restoring infrastructure at the VDC level, along with
enforcement of GoN policies mandating staff to
remain in such posts for a minimum period of
time, will strengthen government services and
relations with local communities. The GoN In-
Challenges are exacerbated at the village level,
where civil servants are often reluctant to be
posted, particularly in remote areas. With the
bulk of the response and expectations of the
population resting firmly on the VDC Secretary,
these posts – at a time when they are particu-
Table 20.1: Breakdown of Type, Number and Cost of Damaged Buildings
Description
Appellate Attorney
Share of Disaster effect
Damage
Loss
Total
Private
Public
8
-
8
-
8
Auditor General
340
-
340
-
340
Bar Association
21
-
21
-
21
Border Office
43
-
43
-
43
Central Registration Department, Narayan Bhawan
(Women’s Development Training Centre)
85
-
85
-
85
DDC building
604
-
604
-
604
District Administration Office
638
-
638
-
638
District Attorney
45
-
45
-
45
District Court
295
-
295
-
295
DoLIDAR Building, Shree Mahal, Pulchowk
213
-
213
-
213
DTCO
85
-
85
-
85
128
-
128
-
128
17
-
17
-
17
Kathmandu Metropolitan City, Bagh Durbar
213
-
213
-
213
Ministry of General Administration
298
-
298
-
298
Ministry of Home Affairs
298
-
298
-
298
Municipal Building
551
-
551
-
551
Municipal Ward Building
625
-
625
-
625
Ilaka Office
Judgement Execution Directorate
National Human Rights Commission
866
-
866
-
866
4,845
-
4,845
-
4,845
NPC
850
-
850
-
850
OPMCM
850
-
850
-
850
Police office
319
-
319
-
319
Police post
281
-
281
-
281
3,640
-
3,640
-
3,640
51
-
51
-
51
757
-
757
-
757
1,797
-
1797
-
1797
18,757
-
18,757
Nepal Army
Prisons
Supreme Court
VDC building
Sports facilities and training centres
Total
258
Disaster effects (NPR million)
18,757
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
tegrated Action Plan 2015 states that the Ministry of General Administration should ensure
all deputed staff return to their positions in the
earthquake-affected areas, which should increase
the number of VDC Secretaries on the ground.
ability to gender-based violence. These vulnerable communities need to be initially prioritized
within the recovery planning framework as the
most-affected areas are the more remote regions
which have been historically marginalized.
While there is no doubt that every institution
and its personnel concerned did their best to
cope with the unimaginable level of challenges,
the response to the disaster showed the need for a
coordinating body with the overriding authority
to mobilize resources, both human and capital,
at the central level. These lessons will be reflected in engineering an intergovernmental system
that builds back better. This coordination body
should be governed by a new law on disaster risk
management that sets out the roles of the different institutions, including ministries such as the
Ministry of Women, Children and Social Welfare
and the different district level institutions.
Dalits represent 10 to 17 percent of the population and are often among the poorest, separated from other caste/ethnic communities in
settlements. As Dalits were traditionally not
permitted to own land, they often still lack any
landholdings and rely on the local cash economy
to support their families. If the GoN requires
land title for resettlement, this presents a barrier to those without land title. Also, nearly
100,000 Nepali citizens, often Tamang, Gurung
or Ghale, live in the northern VDCs along the
Chinese border. Often these communities lack
political influence in the district centres or central GoN due to language, religion and ethnic
distinctions, and isolated geographical locations.
Given the high Himalayan environment and
harsh winters, families in these remote VDCs
should receive priority for early housing support
– preferably before the snows of 2015 set in.
Concerted actions will need to be taken by the
government to ensure transparency and accountability during the post-disaster period.
This is especially important for financial resources, and systems and procedures that already exist, such as the central treasury system
for government resources which should be used
rather than creating new ones.
The district plans for the next fiscal year (20152016) have already been completed and these
will need to be reprioritized. Due to the tight
timeline, the participatory planning process
set up by the MoFALD may not be fully utilized for this reprioritization exercise. Social
mobilizers can be used to ensure participation
of local communities.
The impact on the more vulnerable populations
will be particularly severe due to their lack of
access to services and economic opportunities.
Caste, ethnicity, language and religion remain
the major sources of cultural identity. The country is struggling hard to reduce, if not eliminate,
gender-based, caste-based, ethnicity-based and
spatial exclusions created by socio-economic and
geo-political structures. For instance, women
and girls lag behind men and boys because of disparities in education, lack of fair representation
in decision making, low access to employment
opportunities, limited access to and utilization
of essential healthcare services, and high vulner-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
The monsoon will further compound the impact
of the earthquakes. Waterproof temporary office
space needs to be provided to districts, municipalities and villages to ensure that administrative services can continue to be provided. On a
practical level, where some paper-based records
have been salvaged, temporary storage is critical
to save these from further deterioration during
the monsoon. In addition, physical access to
certain areas will be reduced due to landslides
and this will compound the already difficult
situation for the civil servants and population in
these areas. In addition, this period will be when
the district plans need to be revised; the monsoon will prevent access to more remote areas
for consultation on priorities. Alternative consultation methods will be used such as phone
communication with WCF members.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
Recovery and Reconstruction for
Governance Sector
Reconstruction should take into account factors, which would mitigate future hazards and
risks. The new designs for government buildings should include considerations for more
259
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
responsive service delivery, electricity provision
through solar power and earthquake resilience.
Recovery should be carried out in a participatory manner with improved accountability mechanisms, planning and basic service delivery. This
includes both coordination amongst the different ministries and with different development
actors, including non-governmental organizations and, most importantly, the people.
The total cost of reconstruction is estimated at
NPR 15,413 million. The recovery plan for the
governance sector will ensure capacity for service
delivery at a total cost of NPR 3,029 million.
Key recovery needs are as follows:
• Staffing, both numerically and in terms of
new technical capacities, to strengthen existing institutions. Priority could focus on recruiting locally from affected communities.
• Fiduciary risk mitigation at all levels, especially local levels.
• Service delivery through participatory
governance.
• Expansion of effective patrolling and security
provisions, in collaboration with local stakeholders, to address the issues of violence against
children and women, especially to control trafficking, sexual violence and child labour.
• Strengthening coordination, participation
as well as equitable distribution of resources
and opportunities among different groups of
the population.
These need to be applied specifically to the 14
most-affected districts as a first priority and then
to the other 17 districts, while policy frameworks
and coordinative mechanisms are being strengthened at the central level. Following the principles
of BBB, the goal will be that these districts can
serve as local governance and disaster risk reduction (DRR) models once the reconstruction and
state restructuring has been completed.
Broader Governance Strategy to
Support Recovery
Support to governance functions in the post-disaster period is critical for timely reconstruction
and economic recovery, but equally for the continuous delivery of social security entitlements
and other public services to local communities,
including more marginalized groups and Inter260
nally Displaced Persons (IDPs). This will also
improve public trust towards the capacities of
the state to play its role in protecting all citizens, including the most vulnerable. There is an
opportunity to address underlying institutional
weaknesses and imbalances, and ensure that the
governance systems for recovery are built back
better. The strategy aims to strengthen the processes that the government needs in order to
deliver recovery and reconstruction in a secure
environment, whilst recognizing the current discourse on state restructuring
The post-disaster recovery presents an opportunity to further redress inequalities through the
allocation of financial and human resources.
The GoN’s long-established and institutionalized principles and practices in gender-responsive budgeting (GRB) will be applied to all the
recovery strategies. It is therefore recommended
that budget allocations under the government’s
GRB framework should be increased.
As gender and inclusion are cross-cutting issues,
it is important that the district women, children and social welfare officers participate in all
DRCC committees/clusters. This will help ensure that the specific needs of women, children,
PLWD, and senior citizen are identified and
addressed in a coordinated and comprehensive
manner. Therefore, the capacity of the district office of women, children and social welfare needs
to be strengthened immediately with additional
human resources and logistics, particularly with
respect to vehicles and office equipment.
Also, given the widespread response of civil society to the crisis, it is vital to strengthen the
capacity of both GoN as well as civil society institutions. Nepali civil society has evidenced an
immediate self-organizing capacity to the earthquakes. A broader governance strategy will seek
to tie the official responsibilities of GoN closer to
this vibrant civil society that has responded with
such generosity and dedication to the national
disaster. In this regard, as much as possible, new
capacity building activities should be planned in
a way that strengthens Nepali civil society organizations, both the established agencies as well
as newly established professional associations,
volunteer associations and community leaders
for whom these skills, trainings and curricula will
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
further strengthen their relationship with GoN in
order to respond to future natural disasters.
Based on the initial qualitative impact assessment, the governance sector needs multidimensional support as follows:
• Restoration of infrastructure and assets as
needed to sustain their operations.
• Policy guidance for recovery strategy
and planning.
• Accountability mechanisms such as social audit, public audit and public hearing, including
Right to Information (RTI), strengthened at
the district, VDC and municipality levels.
• Inclusion of women, youth, historically
marginalized communities and vulnerable
groups in decision making, especially those
adversely affected by the earthquakes.
• Capacity development for crisis response coordination, horizontally and vertically.
• Expansion of awareness, security/patrolling and community-based monitoring to
respond to the issues of violence against
women, girls and children, such as trafficking, sexual violence and child labour.
Specifically the strategy will be to strengthen coordination, participation and equitable distribution of resources and opportunities.
The total cost for reconstruction and recovery is
NPR 18,442 million.
Implementation Arrangements
The strategy for recovery of the governance
sector is set out in three areas: (i) Rebuilding
and repair of government infrastructure, (ii)
Ensuring capacity for service delivery, and (iii)
Strengthened coordination and participation.
Rebuilding and Repairing
Government Infrastructure
An immediate priority is to repair or rebuild
damaged or destroyed buildings. This assessment estimates government buildings in need
of repair or rebuilding at a cost of NPR 15,413
million. These figures are estimates and government engineers will develop detailed structural
assessments and designs. As the assessment is
deepened, it will be necessary to differentiate –
particularly for police and VDCs – which buildings were owned by government and rented by
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
government, and the appropriate mechanisms
for financing repair or reconstruction. It will
also be necessary to examine the in-depth analysis produced by the government assessments
team at the district and village levels.
Ensuring Capacity for Service Delivery
Human Resource Management in Local Bodies
Short Term
The VDC structure needs to be urgently
strengthened with additional human resources.
The two key positions that are needed are an accountant/book-keeper and an engineer/overseer.
These positions should be recruited initially on
a temporary basis within the short term, with
a process for permanent recruitment following.
These positions could be placed at the Ilaka level
to cover a cluster of VDCs.
For the 14 most-affected districts covering 580
VDCs, 116 engineers and 116 accountants will
be needed. Specific measures should also be
undertaken to provide additional incentives or
bonuses for the work of the VDC Secretary in
coordinating the relief.
While the debate regarding the restructuring of
the State of Nepal and federalism is ongoing, the
district level should be strengthened on a temporary basis for recovery planning and implementation. Once it becomes clear how this will
dovetail into the potential provincial level, then
permanent appointments can be made.
Medium/Long term
At the municipal level, planning and technical
officers, and accounting personnel should be
prioritized for recruitment within the 37 new
municipalities in the 14 most-affected districts.
Financial Management
Financial management needs to be strengthened
at the village and municipal levels, including: (i)
setting up a guideline and template for expenditure reporting at this level; (ii) training the new
accountant/book-keeper; and (iii) making this a
requirement for funding tranches for recovery.
Short term: The GoN has authorized the treasury to utilize all available budgets for relief and
261
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 20.2: Recovery and Reconstruction Initiatives and Costs
Functions
Description of initiatives
Year one
Year two
Reconstruction
of buildings
Rebuild district and central level government buildings
Sub Total
5,138,000
5,138,000
5,138,000
15,413,000
15,413,000
1,439,000,000
768,100,000
533,900,000
2,741,000,000
Provide technical assistance and training to districts
in planning, financial management, procurement,
geology and engineering
x
x
x
Building capacity for service
delivery
Capacity development at the central level
x
Incentives to VDC Secretaries
x
Set up guidelines for unspent funds in the 14 mostaffected districts to be reprogrammed for the next
fiscal year
x
Strengthen capacity of WCFs and Social Mobilizers
(from LGCDP) to support VDC Secretary in identifying
the population and reissuing identity documents
x
Clarify guideline/ budget for expenditure reporting at
the village level and make it a requirement to receive
funding at the village level
x
Provide temporary structures for district buildings
x
x
Information campaign on building codes
x
x
Hire temporary engineering staff (cluster VDC)
x
x
GoN permanent book-keepers and engineers at Ilaka
level/cluster VDC level, including women and people
from marginalized communities
x
x
x
GoN permanent employees for new municipalities,
including women and people from the marginalized
communities
x
x
Set up electronic records and guidelines for land and
identity documents
x
x
Building code enforcement through technical assistance to the District Technical Office, VDC and municipality (mason, contractor, technician, house owner)
x
x
x
91,000,000
102,500,000
94,000,000
Promote coordination and
participation
262
Year three Estimated cost
(NPR)
Develop participatory recovery planning guidelines
(including DDRC)
x
Technical assistance for recovery planning and
budgeting
x
Legislation on audit at sub-district to be passed
x
Provide information to people about grievance procedures, anti-corruption bodies and processes
x
x
Right to Information campaign targeted at WCFs and
the general population
x
x
x
287,500,000
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Year one
Year two
x
x
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Functions
Description of initiatives
Year three Estimated cost
(NPR)
Support the coordination of recovery through technical assistance to the central body responsible for
recovery
After cabinet approval, accountability mechanism
used across each institution at the district and subdistrict levels - Local Body Resource Mobilization and
Management Operation Guidelines (LBRMMOG)
x
Review district recovery plan every four months
through public hearings
x
x
Strengthen the Office of the Auditor General to carry
out audits in all 14 most-affected districts with additional temporary staff
x
x
Public audit systems strengthened with technical
audit from DTO and capacity-building of WCFs
x
x
Set up a permanent secretariat for DDMC and a
contingency fund
x
x
Sub Total
Total
x
1,530,000,000 870,600,000 627,900,000 3,028,500,000
6,668,000
6,008 ,000
reconstruction. In the 14 most-affected districts,
unspent budgets from the present fiscal year
should not be recouped and considered as unspent capital budgets, but be utilized for relief
expenses up to the end of the fiscal year. Any remaining monies can be allocated to relief activities in the coming fiscal year. Clear yet succinct
GoN guidelines should be written and approved
before the close of the financial year to allow for
this VDC-level reprogramming, including the
use of the 35 percent block grant for women,
children and disadvantaged groups, to ensure
that such funds benefit all earthquake-affected
persons, including marginalized groups.
clude using the WCFs to assist in confirming
the identity of individuals; additional temporary
staff to assess land documents and provide new
documentation; and working with the district
technical officer as the arbitration/grievance
mechanism for the process.
Records Management
Short term:The assessment of the damage to the
records is being carried out by the assessment
teams that the Ministry of General Administration has sent out. It is not yet clear what number
of records have been destroyed. With 178 VDCs
fully destroyed, it is assumed that the number of
VDCs lacking records will be higher than this.
However, these records are vital for the re-issuing of identity documents and the government
will reinstate lost documents using consultations
within the local community through the VDC
Secretary. An urgent guideline should be shared
with the districts on how to issue earthquake
victim ID cards, re-issue citizenship documents,
and re-establish vital events records and social
security beneficiaries. This guideline should in-
Guidelines on how to re-establish other critical
information such as accounts, bills and audit
records need to be provided as failure to provide these will cause an automatic failure of
minimum conditions in annual assessments and
result in a significant reduction of capital grant
allocations in the following year.
5,766,000
18,442,000
Medium/Long Term
These records should be put on databases in a
comprehensive manner and backed up at the provincial and central levels. A citizen service centre
should also be set up at the district level with mobile units at the village level to make it easier for
people to procure relevant identity documents.
Under the third Five Year Justice Sector Strategy
2014-2017, the Supreme Court was already setting targets to begin automating certain court
processes. This crisis provides an opportunity for
the justice sector to look at digitizing court records in addition to increasing court administration efficiency. As part of the Strengthening Rule
of Law and Human Rights Project (RoLHR)
there is currently an ongoing effort in the Office
263
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
of the Attorney General to digitally archive closed
cases at the central level. This programme could
be accelerated and expanded to include open cases and those at the districts to mitigate any future
issues with loss of files and documents.
Building Code
Short term: Infrastructure projects at the DDC
are supported by the District Technical Office
(DTO), but they normally do not have the capacity to provide technical support to VDCs and
only serve the largest infrastructure projects in
municipalities. With the injection of engineering
skills to the district and village, there will be more
capacity to share information about building
codes. The capacity of the municipalities and districts, specifically the District Technical Officer,
will be built in terms of understanding the code
and how to apply it. A tax break for the housing
tax can be explored as an incentive to ensure that
the building code is followed. An information
campaign should be set up to ensure the population knows the building code and the main characteristics of a safe building. Under the GoN’s
Integrated Action Plan, MoUD and MoFALD
are responsible for this action. Legal enforcement
of the building code will in all likelihood ensure
greater compliance with the code.
Strengthened Coordination
and Participation
Coordination at the Central Level
Short term: A priority is to identify the gaps in
the existing mandates and authorities granted to
the Central Natural Disaster Relief Committee
(CNDRC) so that they can respond in a timely
and effective manner to the unfolding situation
on the ground. Coordination will be needed
across a multi-stakeholder platform for possible
engagement in emergency operations, and media
to ensure broad communication. The GoN has
developed an Integrated Action Plan that sets out
the different roles of government ministries and is
in the process of defining an appropriate structure
to lead the earthquake response. Once this is decided, the institution should be strengthened for
implementation and data management.
Coordination at the District Level
Short term: A lot of the immediate response to
the earthquakes has been carried out efficiently
264
and quickly by civil society organizations and
international non-governmental organizations.
The GoN will continue to work in collaboration
with these and other civic organisations at the
local and national levels to ensure they have the
required support and guidance to provide relief
and reconstruction to the nation’s citizens.
Medium/Long term: The District Disaster
Management Committee (DDMC) will be
strengthened through a secretariat to ensure
that it is able to function as the main coordinating body for the response; this secretariat
can also serve the DDRCs during the relief
phases of any possible future crises. Technical
assistance will be provided for recovery planning, budgeting and implementation.
Accountability
Short term: Detailed expenditure reporting from
the VDCs is currently not a requirement for
funding disbursement (from DDCs) within current GoN regulations. As they become the focus
for recovery, transparent systems of reporting on
financial resources will need to be strengthened.
The Planning and Administration Officer in the
DDC has also been appointed as the Grievance
Officer, although it remains unclear how effective this has been in the aftermath of the immediate emergency, nor their pro-active role in
handing any grievances or complaints.
To tackle the issue of accountability at the local
level, the GoN, as a matter of priority, needs
to pass legislation which, for the first time,
would permit the Office of the Auditor General to carry out audits at the municipality and
VDC levels. Audits are currently carried out at
the district level, and to promote district level
transparency and accountability the results of
these district audits should be published locally
and form the basis of three-yearly public hearings within the district. In addition, MoFALD
will give priority to implementing existing internal control mechanisms.
At the national and local levels, more public
information should be provided to the local
population, including through the internet and
community radio, on how citizens can use grievance management mechanisms so they can have
their say on issues related to transparency and
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
inclusion, as well as the specific priorities and
means of implementation of recovery. The Citizen Awareness Centres can be strengthened to
deliver these campaigns. These Right To Information campaigns will be supported by the National Information Commission. The Right to
Information Act has been used more extensively
at the central level to promote greater transparency. Similar promotion of this agenda at the
district level will increase both the supply of and
demand for transparency.
Medium/Long term: The MoFALD Local Body
Resource Mobilisation and Management Operation Guidelines (LBRMMOG) approved
by the Cabinet in 2012 includes a number of
critical procedures that have proven effective to
promote accountability and transparency at the
local level. The GoN is committed to implementing these mechanisms across the local bodies and devolved line departments to ensure that
the earthquake recovery delivery is perceived as
transparent and participatory.
Recovery Planning
Short term: The introduction of the WCF has
allowed for a participatory planning process in
Nepal. The detailed description of procedures
are to be found in the LBRMMOG. This includes holding a ward gathering to obtain demand for projects from the wider community
and holding Integrated Planning and Formulation Committee (IPFC) meetings, including
members from WCFs as well as local political
leaders to recommend projects within the budget provisions to the local body council. Given
that the FY 2015-2016 participatory planning
process was concluded for the next fiscal year
prior to the earthquakes, it needs to be reprioritized and re-budgeted to reflect new, more
urgent priorities.
In order to set up a recovery plan and ensure
its implementation, technical assistance would
be provided at the district level to support the
District Planning Officer to reprioritize the district plan by the end of August and to assist in
its implementation. The GoN will develop a
guideline based on the 14-step planning process
to ensure the timeliness of the recovery planning
process as well as participation of the population, including women, Dalits and other vul-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
nerable communities. The GoN will commit to
greater gender and social inclusion in the provision of these new positions, promoting women
and marginal groups to increase representation
in the civil service. This guideline will look at
the role of social mobilizers and the WCF; it will
attempt to rationalize the different mobilizers
and combine them where possible.
The following assistance will be provided at the
district level: (i) planning, (ii) finance, (iii) procurement, and (iv) engineering. They will also
coordinate with the DDMC and the newly established units of book-keepers and engineers at
the ilaka level. The GoN will ensure that new
local staffing opportunities will recruit a broad
mix of citizens, including women.
Assessment Methodology
Data has been collected through secondary
sources from the central government through
the questionnaire developed jointly by GoN,
UNDP and other development partners. The
data on damaged buildings was received from
GoN. This data is not in every instance broken down by district. The data from MoFALD
and the Financial Comptroller’s Office covers
the 14 most-affected districts. The data for
the MoHA and the justice sector cover the
31 districts ascribed by the PDNA. The data
from the Nepal Army has a figure that covers
damages (both minor and major damage) for
the whole country. For the purpose of this assessment, all buildings are considered partially
damaged. Three district visits were undertaken
to assess the effect of the earthquakes on government structures at the district and village
levels. Government counterparts from major
governance-related departments have also been
consulted at the central level to gain information on recovery needs and the effects of the
earthquakes on governance processes. The cost
of reconstruction is based upon prices given
for buildings by the GoN. This includes equipment for the buildings, such as search and rescue equipment for the police, computers and
furniture, amongst other items. The damage
cost is considered 15 percent less than the reconstruction cost. Partially damaged buildings
are considered to be 40 percent of the reconstruction cost. All costs include equipment as
well as building costs.
265
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
266
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
21. Disaster Risk Reduction
Summary
The Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA)
for the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) sector
is a joint effort of the Government of Nepal’s
relevant agencies, led by the National Planning
Commission (NPC) and the Ministry of Home
Affairs (MoHA) and development partners. The
DRR sector assessment team undertook consultations with relevant national and local government entities as well as field visits on 31 May
2015 in three affected districts.
The DRR sector assessment has estimated the
cost of damages and losses on DRR system assets affected by the 25 April earthquake and its
aftershocks. DRR assets consist of search and
rescue (SAR), seismological observation networks, hydro-meteorological networks, national
and district Emergency Operations Centres
(EOCs), and water induced disaster prevention
measures. The total cost of damages and losses is
NPR 154.88 million with the highest reported
damages and losses on SAR related assets. Prior
to the earthquakes, investment in DRR assets
was relatively low to have adequate disaster preparedness capacity and to respond effectively to
the high number of natural multi-hazard risks
that Nepal faces.
DRR actions need to be multi-hazard and
multi-sectoral, inclusive and accessible in order
to be efficient and effective, enhancing a broader
and more people-centred preventive approach
to disaster risk. It is crucial to take this disaster
as an opportunity to rebuild a better, safer and
more resilient society by mainstreaming DRR in
recovery strategy and encouraging DRR investment with a build back better (BBB) approach.
In the recovery and reconstruction phase, it is
critical to increase public education and awareness of disaster risk, especially with the increased
risk of landslides induced by the earthquakes in
the monsoon season (June –September). Noting the limited priority and resources given to
DRR prior to the earthquakes, improvements
are urgently needed in Nepal’s DRR system in
the short (six months), medium (two years) and
long (five years) terms to enhance the resilience
of the country.
The following priorities are recommended:
Short term:
• Reconstruction of damaged DRR assets and
improvements
• Improving preparedness, response, relief and
logistics systems
• Strengthening information and communication capacities for relief, response and recovery
• Enhancing multi-hazard risk monitoring,
vulnerability assessment, risk information
dissemination and awareness
Medium to long term:
• Improving legal and institutional arrangements
• Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management
(DRM) into the development sectors, particularly, housing, private and public infrastructure, social sectors (health and education), and livelihoods
• Improving integration of Climate Change
Adaptation (CAA) and DRR into policy
guidelines and institutional development.
The total estimated reconstruction needs for
DRR is NPR 504.44 million. Based on the BBB
concept to further build resilience, a total additional recovery cost of NPR 76.99 million is estimated.
Pre-Disaster Context
and Baseline
The intensity of the 25 April earthquake on
Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale at the
fault area is mainly VIII (severe) with a very limited area of IX (Figure 20.1). The salient feature
of ground motion records is a low peak value
(PGA=164 cm/s/s), small response spectrum at
short period (less than 1 second) and very long
dominant period (around 4.5 second) compared
to that of the events recorded in other areas. The
most severe damage occurred mainly in the hilly
areas northwest to northeast of Kathmandu Valley. The reported losses as of 9 June 2015 are
8781 dead, 22,303 injured, 6,266 public build267
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
ings damaged, 798,897 private houses damaged
and several cultural heritage buildings destroyed.
Aftershocks
Following the earthquake of 25 April 2015, 327
aftershocks with M>4.0 have occurred until 22
June. Four aftershocks were larger than M6.0
and the largest one of M6.8 (M7.3, USGS) occurred on 12 May, which caused additional casualties of more than 200 dead and 2500 injured.
The distribution of aftershocks and their magnitude range is presented in Figure 20.2. The large
aftershocks were strong enough to cause further
damage to vulnerable structures that had been
weakened by the main shock. Aftershocks still
continue and attention should be paid to damaged buildings and possible landslide disasters.
Secondary Disasters
Figure 20.1: Spatial Distribution of Aftershocks after April 25, 2015
The ground motion of a strong earthquake not
only causes direct damage or collapse of buildings
but also can trigger geological and/or geotechnical failure, or other phenomena causing secondary disasters. The typical secondary disasters are
fire, landslides, soil liquefaction, avalanches, etc.
There were only three cases of fire in Kathmandu
Valley after the 25 April earthquake. Avalanches
and a number of landslides in the mountainous
areas were identified by satellite imagery and
field survey, and caused fatalities and damages
to roads, constraining relief activities.84 A large
landslide on 24 May 2015 buried 25 houses and
blocked the Kali Gandaki River. Liquefaction was
observed in Kathmandu Valley, without serious
consequence. There was an avalanche in Langtang Valley, a popular tourist destination, reportedly claiming more than 400 lives. The numerous
landslides in the 14 most-affected districts damaged over 5000 hectares of land.
Key issues relate to the general state of shock
caused by the massive scale of the disaster, its
high mortality and destruction of several decades’ worth of housing stock. Continued seismicity in the country, combined with threat of
monsoon related hazards and current status of
preparedness and risk reduction, remain significant concerns.
Hazard, Vulnerability and risk Profile
The vulnerability of the population in Nepal is a
result of the interplay of low per capita income
($742), poverty incidence (24 percent) and high
rural population (83 percent) where poverty rates
Figure 20.2: Temporal Distribution of Aftershocks till 22 June 2015 (Magnitude>4)
8
7.5
Magnitude ML
7
Magnitude
6.5
6
%
Major (7-7.9)
1
0.31%
Strong (6-6.9)
4
1.22%
43
13.15%
279
85.32%
Moderate (5-5.9)
5.5
Light (4-4.9)
5
4.5
4
Number
Based on data from National Seismology Centre
0
5
10
15
20
25 - 30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Days after 25 April Earthquake
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), http://www.icimod.org/?q=18072
84
268
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
are higher (27 percent)85, compounded by the
rugged terrain in the middle and high mountains
that is home to almost half the total population
scattered in settlements, many of which are remote and difficult to access even in normal times.
More than 55 percent of the poor rely on agriculture, which is highly dependent on the monsoon
and impacted by climate variability.
Nepal’s geophysical location in one of the highest seismic risk areas and propensity of flash
floods and landslides due to steep, unstable
slopes are some of the natural factors that contribute to the country’s high vulnerability.
Earthquakes
Nepal is located in a very high seismic risk area;
large parts of the country is Himalayan mountain range, where seismicity predominantly is
due to collision of the Indian and Eurasian continental plates. Over the last 100 years, four large
earthquakes (in 1934, 1980, 1988 and 2011)
preceded the 25 April 2015 Gorkha earthquake.
Most of the country has experienced earthquakes with intensities on MMI scale of VIII
(Severe), IX (Violent) or X (Extreme).86
The impacts of these earthquakes are magnified
several-fold due to the high physical vulnerability of traditional (stone and mud) or inadequately designed masonry, or reinforced cement
concrete (RCC) framed structures; remoteness;
rugged terrain and other societal vulnerabilities
that place Nepal 37 out of 172 countries as per
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Risk and Vulnerability Assessment.
Floods
The Tarai plains are affected by riverine floods
due to huge sediment loads. The mid hills are
prone to flash floods due to high intensity or
continuous rainfall, while high mountain areas
are at risk from glacial lake and landslide dam
outburst floods. The monsoon period from
June to September poses the highest flood risk
in the country. The impact of floods on lives
and livelihoods is enormous – as per DesInventar, in the last three decades alone,over 3.8 million people and 200,000 hectares of crop lands
have been affected, resulting in losses of over
3,100 lives NPR 6 billion.
85
Nepal in figures, 2012, CBS
86
National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management, 2009
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Landslides
Landslides and slope failures are among the most
common hazards in Nepal, due to geography
(steep, fragile slopes), triggered by natural causes
(earthquakes and heavy or intense rainfall) and
human influence (deforestation, unplanned development, cultivation and settlements). The
hilly districts of Siwalik, Mahabharat range, mid
hills, fore and higher Himalayas are all vulnerable; and the central, eastern and western regions
have reported most frequent and severe impacts.
In August 2014, a landslide in Jure, Sindhupalchowk killed 156 people and blocked the Sunkoshi River creating a huge lake for 37 days, raising
concerns of flooding downstream. Overall, over
4,000 lives and NPR 1 billion have been lost due
to landslides in Nepal over the last three decades.
Droughts
Droughts are very common in hill and mountainous districts in the ecological zones of the far
and mid-western regions, and the Tarai ecological
zone of the eastern region. Droughts over the previous decade alone have resulted in a production
loss of 1.7 million tonnes of food grains, affecting
over 12 million people, which is four times more
than floods and landslides put together.
Others
Avalanches, cold waves, windstorms, hailstorms,
thunderbolts, epidemics and fires are among the
other most significant disasters. Fires, especially in
settlements, are among the most reported disasters
and resulted in the highest losses (NPR 9 billion
in the last three decades), while epidemics have led
to over 16,000 deaths, higher than all other disasters put together. The eastern and central regions
have reported most losses from fire, and the midwestern region the most deaths due to epidemics.
The records between 1971 and 2010 reveal that
climate-related disasters accounted for almost
25 percent of deaths, 84 percent of the population were affected by disasters, and 76 percent suffered economic losses. It is evident that
destructive earthquakes occur in Nepal with
greater return periods (80 years on average) but
have more grave consequences than the frequent
disasters such as floods, landslides and droughts.
The previous seismic event of comparable magnitude and impact was the 1934 Nepal-Bihar
269
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
earthquake which led to liquefaction and severe
impacts in Kathmandu Valley.
Disaster Risk Reduction
System in Nepal
The status of the DRR system is elaborated
under the five priority actions as envisaged per
the National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management (NSDRM), 2009.
Institutional, Legislative and Policy Systems
for DRR as National and Local Priority
The Central Natural Disaster Relief Committee
(CNDRC) and the District Disaster Relief Committees (DDRCs) coordinate all post-disaster rescue, relief and response activities at the national
and district levels respectively. MoHA is the national focal agency for disaster management. The
Department for Fire Service and Disaster Management, recently established under the Ministry
of Federal Affairs and Local Development (MoFALD), needs to develop its capacity for effective
fire response. Success of integrating DRM into
national and sectoral plans, led by the NPC, is
still below expectation and suffers from not having a system of providing coherence guidance to
other sectors for DRM budget allocations.
The overarching legal instrument is the predominantly relief and response oriented Natural
Calamity Relief Act, 1982 (amended in 1989
and 1992). National Climate Change Policy,
National Adaptation Programmes of Action
(NAPA) and Local Adaptation Plan of Action
(LAPA) articulate the integration of Climate
Change Adaptation (CCA) into development
processes at national and local levels. The Local
Self Governance Act, 1999, (LSGA) empowers
local bodies to take charge of disaster mitigation
and recovery planning and mitigation, while the
Building Act (1998), amended in 2007, makes
implementation of the National Building Code
(NBC) mandatory in all municipalities. The NSDRM, 2009 outlines over 29 activities and builds
on the Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA), but
its translation into concrete action has been weak.
The Nepal Risk Reduction Consortium (NRRC)
was set up in 2009, bringing together key national agencies and international partners to prioritize
and implement key activities of the NSDRM in
a coordinated manner. A national DRR platform
was established in 2009 for better coordination
270
and information sharing among DRR actors in
Nepal. The Disaster Preparedness Network (DPNet) comprising of most NGOs, international
NGOs, international organizations, and UN
agencies involved in DRM serves as the secretariat to the national DRR platform.
Identification, Assessment and Monitoring of
Disaster Risks and Early Warning Systems
Earthquakes, floods and precipitation events are
monitored through networks managed by National Seismological Centre of the Department
of Mines and Geology (DMG) under Ministry
of Industry, and the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) under Ministry
of Science, Technology and Environment. The
seismic network comprises 21 short-period seismic stations, seven accelerometer stations and
29 GPS stations. The Birendranagar Regional
Seismological Centre at Surkhet records data
from nine seismic stations in mid-western and
far-western Nepal, while the National Seismological Centre at Kathmandu records data from
12 stations located from Pyuthan to Taplejung.
Early warning systems (EWS) for floods in 12
high-risk areas of the Tarai are largely community-based, while flood warning with a few
hours’ lead time is provided by DHM based
on upstream real-time gauge and precipitation
measurements at 16 locations in six river basins
(Karnali, Babai, West Rapti, Narayani, Bagmati
and Koshi). EWS for Glacial Lake Outburst
Floods (GLOF) were put in place for two of the
highest risk locations (Tsho Rolpa and Imja),
which need further strengthening and better
linkages with the community.
Risk assessments have been carried out in a fragmented manner covering parts of the country
and addressing particular sectors or hazards,
except for the nation-wide Multi-Hazard Risk
Assessment completed in 2010. Landslide risks
are assessed by agencies under three different
ministries –the Department of Mines and Geology, the Department of Soil Conservation and
Watershed Management and the Department
of Water Induced Disaster Prevention. A threephase process was initiated to conduct a nationwide risk assessment through the NRRC, and
is currently in the first (stock-taking) phase.
Moreover, 265 schools in the Kathmandu Valley and 60 hospitals have also been assessed for
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
safety. MoHA maintains a database of disaster
events through its SAHANA Disaster Information Management System (SAHANA DIMS).
Enhanced Preparedness for
Effective Response
The Nepal Army, Nepal Police and the Armed
Police Force comprise the first responders to any
emergency in the country. They have personnel
for search and rescue (SAR) and limited sets for
collapsed structures and water SAR. The three
security forces have separate divisions for SAR.
In case of a large-scale disaster, the government
has mechanisms to seek assistance from neighbouring countries and the international community for SAR, in which case the international
teams work under the lead of the national forces.
MoHA has set up the National Emergency Operation Centre (NEOC) and regional, district and
municipal EOCs, which are currently active in 46
districts. The MoHA’s Guidance Note on Disaster Preparedness and Response Planning, 2011,
forms the basis for disaster preparedness and response plans formulated in all 75 districts. The
Prime Minister’s Disaster Relief Fund and MoHA’s regular Central Disaster Relief Fund finance
disaster response activities, with the provision for
establishing similar funds in districts. Preparedness programmes encompass critical areas like
education and health. Security forces, humanitarian clusters and communities living in disaster
prone districts actively participate in response coordinated by District Disaster Relief Committees
(DDRCs). Simulations/mock exercises have been
conducted in some districts in 2013, but the national simulation has not yet been conducted.
The National Disaster Response Framework,
2013 (NDRF) outlines the roles and responsibilities for an effective response involving a
range of stakeholders from ministries, departments, security forces, diplomatic missions, UN
and international agencies, Nepal Red Cross Society (NRCS), non-governmental organizations
and professional bodies. It also identifies 49 key
actions to be initiated by relevant lead agencies
to operationalize the NDRF. Whilst its implementation is noted to be moving well in some
areas, it is also lagging behind in others. MoHA
has also formulated several related guidelines for
disaster response, e.g., dead body management;
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
relief, civil and military assets; and international
military assistance. The NDRF has specified the
roles and responsibilities of different line ministries and government agencies. The positioning of
relief and response stocks is limited to some agencies like NRCS, some international non-governmental organizations and the UN. Methodologies
and capacities exist for Initial Rapid Assessment
(IRA), multi-cluster/sector IRA and detailed cluster-specific assessments, and the contextualization
of post-disaster needs assessment methodologies
and related training is planned.
Reduction of Underlying Risk Factors
and Policies for Mitigation
The vulnerability of the population in Nepal is greatly linked to higher incidence of poverty and majority
of the population living in rural areas in scattered
settlements. This is compounded by the fragile
mountainous terrain. This trend however is rapidly
changing with a dramatic increase in urban risk with
consequent impact on vulnerability patterns.
Legislation, policies and plans for environmental
management exist through the Environment Protection Act, 1996, Rules, 1997 and Environment
Impact Assessment (EIA) Guidelines. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
offers opportunities for integrating DRR. Likewise, sound forest management, soil conservation
and watershed management practices contribute
to DRR but integration of climate risks into forest and watershed management planning has still
not been fully realized and the underlying risks
are not addressed during implementation. Despite
agriculture being a national priority, prioritization
of strategies and actions in agriculture is not adequately informed by comprehensive assessment
of climate/disaster risks and impacts, availability of
specific weather-based agro-advisories and needed
resources. CCA and DRR have not been sufficiently integrated into sectoral plans and budgets.
Structural vulnerability is addressed through the
National Building Code, 1994 and Building Act,
2007, but its implementation is restricted to only
few municipalities because of limited enforcement capacities of local bodies and low awareness
among the population. A retrofitting guideline
drafted for the most common construction typologies is pending approval. Safety standards for
infrastructure for multi-hazard risks do not exist.
271
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Implementation of the existing national land
use policy, is quite weak. A risk-sensitive land
use planning process has been recently initiated
for the Kathmandu Valley by the Kathmandu
Valley Development Authority.
Information and Knowledge Management:
Building a Culture of Safety and Resilience
MoHA maintains a database of disaster events
through its SAHANA DIMS and through the
DRR portal, while DesInventar has records of disasters from 1971. Disaster information is shared
through the mass media (television, radio), social
media, websites and with the districts through
the NEOC. Regular awareness campaigns are
held annually, on Earthquake Safety Day (commemorating the 1934 earthquake) and the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction.
Integration of DRR into curricula of primary and secondary schools and universities
is advanced and specific DRR education programmes are offered in a few universities. Training conducted for government officials by the
Nepal Administrative Staff College and the
Local Development Training Academy also integrate disaster/climate risk management. The
security forces (Army, Police and Armed Police Force) conduct specific training on disaster
management for their personnel.
Although the DRR system is still relatively new,
several milestones have been achieved such as
formulation of the NSDRM and NDRF, and
setting up of the NRRC. Yet, political instability and other pressing priorities have resulted in
a number of set-backs – legislation is yet to be
enacted, and lack of technical, financial and human resources hinder implementation of initiatives, which are seen in isolation. The NSDRM
and the NRRC were attempts to address these
lacunae, but have yielded limited success.
Overall Assessment of DRR system
Performance
National-level Coordination and Response
Overall response to the current disaster can be
taken as a real test of the coordination and response capacity of the government at national
and local levels and effectiveness of the tools and
systems built for that. NDRF served as a key
tool for coordination. Decisions and instructions
272
from the central government were based on the
objectives and scope of NDRF. The first meeting of the Central Disaster Relief Committee
(CNDRC) was held two hours after the earthquake on 25 April, with the NEOC providing
an initial report to the CNDRC, recommending
focus on SAR, life-saving actions and declaration
of a state of national calamity. Financial resources
from the Prime Minister’s Relief Fund were allocated, an appeal for international assistance was
made and the government’s cluster mechanisms,
comprising 11 sectors and co-led by international
and UN agencies, was activated.
Critical decisions and activation of response
measures were taken under seven hours of the
stipulated response time, indicating that NEOC
and CNDRC performed their coordination
functions well within the timeframe during the
first critical hours. Subsequent CNDRC meetings, held regularly on 27 April, 30 April, 3
May, 10 May and 12 May, focused on plans for
effective search, rescue and relief related activities such as transit shelters, facilitation of entry
of humanitarian assistance into the country and
customs clearance procedures.
Key respondents consulted felt that some of the actions undertaken at the national level would have
been smoother if the national simulation, planned
since 2014, had been conducted. The scenario for
the planned simulation though envisages maximum impact in the Kathmandu Valley, including on vital services and lifelines. This disaster has
wreaked much greater impact in other rural areas.
District-level Coordination and Response
District authorities were overwhelmed with numerous overlapping and changing versions of
reports demanded by various central ministries
and international humanitarian agencies. Due to
systemic capacity gaps existing at the local level to
respond to large-scale disasters, Chief District Officers (CDOs) exercised their crisis management
roles using their own experience and judgement.
The DDRC mechanism started functioning
from the second day. DDRCs are the operational
mechanism for local coordination, updating on
damages and needs, prioritization of response and
discussions, and follow-up with various agencies.
District consultations revealed that disaster preparedness and response plans were not effectively
utilized in the response.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
The use of the humanitarian cluster system was
highly uneven by the sub-national stakeholders
due to unfamiliarity with the procedures. Although under-resourced, the Village Development Committee (VDC) Secretaries were very
active and the Ward Citizen Forum (ACF) and
social mobilizers played important roles in operational coordination at the village level.
Multiple sources of information coming in
from the districts to the centre in the beginning
made the damage analysis more complex and
decision-making difficult. Field observations
indicate confusion over mechanics for selection
of recipients for relief and compensation, particularly of those whose houses were damaged
by the earthquakes.
Emergency Operation Centres
The communication network of the EOCs is
very important, and it was functional, connecting the central command system to the districts.
Where they are established and operational,
district EOCs provided the much needed communication system, especially in the immediate
aftermath. In the districts where physical locations of the EOCs were impacted because of
the earthquakes, alternative arrangements were
made using local police offices to serve as the
hub for disaster related information. The effectiveness of the district EOC in terms of communication was limited by turnover of trained
staff (police), unfamiliarity with SAHANA
DIMS and lack of reporting templates. The
district EOC’s potential for serving as a coordination platform at the lower level was further
constrained by limited attention given to information management. Districts visited lack basic
systems for information management, including
display of crisis management information and
public information. From the field visits it was
found that there was limited operational relationship between district EOCs and VDCs.
Information flow between NEOC and district
EOCs needs substantial improvement in terms
of data quality, effectiveness in providing timely
information, and the basis for appropriate crisis
management decisions at national and sub-national levels. The SAHANA DIMS, tailor-made
for such situations, was not utilized. However,
the DRR portal was used for dissemination of
damage and loss related data.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Search and Rescue
The trained human resources of the Nepal Army,
Nepal Police and Armed Police Force carried out
effective SAR operations and saved many lives.
Four people trapped under collapsed structures
in Kathmandu were rescued by Nepal Police and
lives of 16 people were saved by international
SAR teams. Execution of 4,236 helicopter flights
(by government and private) resulted in rescue of
7,558 persons by air; 4,689 persons were rescued
by land. MoHA reported that 22,500 civil servants, 65,059 staff of Nepal Army, 41,776 staff
of Nepal Police, 24,775 staff of the Armed Police
Force, and 4,000 government health workers and
private health workers were mobilized for lifesaving actions.
Challenges faced were lack of necessary equipment for location, extrication and initial medical stabilization of victims. SAR assets were also
trapped and personnel deployed had to contend
with a high number of aftershocks in the immediate seven days while SAR was ongoing. The arrival of international SAR teams, even after the
‘golden 24-hour mark’ where the survival rate
of those buried under debris, was questionable.
The earthquake highlighted need for a professional and integrated national SAR capacity to
be formed in accordance with the National Strategic Action Plan for Search and Rescue, 2014.
Relief and Humanitarian Assistance
Emergency relief and humanitarian assistance
to the affected population was provided with
active support and contribution from over 60
countries, UN and international agencies. Fixed
wing and rotary aircraft were also engaged from
friendly countries in carrying out numerous
sorties to bring relief into the country and to
distribute it to the most affected, remote areas.
A newly constructed humanitarian staging area,
established through WFP with support from
UK Aid, at Tribhuvan International Airport
(TIA) facilitated the receipt of cargo by air and
by truck immediately after the earthquake and
distribution around the country could commence quickly. If such a facility had not been
in place, it would have taken weeks to improvize
a logistics hub. The measures undertaken as
part of the Getting Airports Ready for Disasters (GARD) programme in 2011 facilitated the
continued functioning of TIA.
273
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
The flash appeal in support of response to the
earthquake was launched on 29 April 2015
for an estimated US$415 million (later revised
to US$422 million) to meet critical humanitarian needs for next three months. Till date,
US$130.9 million or 31 percent of the appeal
has been mobilized.
Transit shelters were established immediately with
official support in Kathmandu, using designated
open spaces. Non-food items, particularly tarpaulins, were inadequate with a surge in demand
even from those families whose houses were not
damaged due to fear of being trapped. Outside
Kathmandu, in the initial days, almost all response efforts were based on self-help with many
affected families staying close to their damaged
houses. Prior investments in warehousing and logistics and prepositioning of relief items was very
limited. The ‘one door’ system for receipt of aid
and relief distribution via DDRC was adopted,
but in many instances this was not followed. At
the sub-national level, demand was articulated as
a priority for access to ‘normal’ government services, restoration of livelihoods and cash grants
for self-help transitional shelters. CDOs outside
of Kathmandu and MoHA believe that challenging topography, limited road networks and risks
of secondary disasters strongly influenced their
ability to respond on time.
Disaster Effects
Damages and losses to DRR system assets
Prior to the earthquake, investment in DRR
assets was relatively low to respond effectively
to potential disasters and to have sufficient
disaster preparedness capacity. Total damages
to DRR assets is NPR 154.88 million, with
the highest cost reported for SAR-related as-
sets (NPR 95.63 million). Damages to hydrometeorological stations were NPR 41.8 million and damages to the Department of Water
Induced Disaster Prevention were NPR 14.16
million. District level EOCs reported damages
of NPR 3.3 million, whereas very limited to no
damage to the seismological observation network infrastructure was reported.
The damages and losses data were provided by
the relevant government organizations: MoHA,
DHM under Ministry of Science, Technology
and Environment, Nepal Police, Armed Police
Force, and National Seismological Centre (NSC)
under the Department of Mines and Geology.
The most-affected districts in terms of DRR assets are Kathmandu, Sindhupalchowk, Chitwan,
Nuwakot, Dolakha and Rasuwa. The highest
damage was recorded in Kathmandu district,
which delivers services to the largest populated
area of the country.
Damages to DRR assets mostly include damage to
EOC office buildings, hydro-meteorological stations, field offices of the Department of Water Induced Disaster Prevention, police stations dedicated for DRM, and fire stations in Kathmandu and
other earthquake-affected districts. The majority
of hydro-meteorological stations along critical rivers are manual, the presence of a person to record
observations. Due to the earthquakes, many of
these stations are not functional, as observers have
abandoned their homes and relocated elsewhere.
Observations from these stations are crucial for
DHM to provide uninterrupted services on flood
warnings and potential landslide information.
Disaster Impacts
Secondary Disasters
Table 20.1: Estimates of Damages and Losses to DRR Assets and Reconstruction Needs
Category
Damage and loss
(NPR million)
Emergency Operation Centres
3.30
Hydro-meteorological observation networks
41.80
Search and rescue and fire services
95.63
Field office buildings of the Department of Water Induced Disaster Prevention
14.16
Seismic network of National Seismic Centre
0
Total
154.89
Source: Internal reports of MoHA, DHM, Nepal Police, APF and NSC
274
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
The numerous aftershocks since the 25 April
2015 earthquake with several tremors larger than
M6 posed a grave threat to the already existing
vulnerable, partially damaged buildings, infrastructure and unstable slopes. The 12 May aftershock resulted in over 200 deaths and more
collapsed buildings, particularly in Sindhupalchowk and Dolakha districts. Fresh avalanches
were noted on Mount Everest and an aftershock
caused a landslide on the Koshi Highway which
blocked a section of the road between Bhedetar
and Mulghat. On 24 May, cracks triggered by
seismic activities led to a massive dry landslide
near Baisari, in Myagdi district. A total of 25
houses were buried and a huge volume of debris fell into the Kali Gandaki River forming a
natural dam that blocked the river’s flow, creating a lake over a mile long, until the river level
overtopped the dam and broke through. Already
vulnerable areas in at least six districts are now
more susceptible to such landslides and flooding.
Initial assessments revealed no increased threat
of GLOF. However, detailed assessments are
planned, including for the high-risk Tsho Rolpa
lake, where some cracks in the moraine dam and
seepage downstream (in Imja lake) have to be
further investigated. Tsho Rolpa GLOF could
potentially affect up to 100 kilometres downstream, threatening the lives of about 10,000
people, their agriculture, livestock, roads, bridges and hydro power projects.
Local Government Capacities
The impact of the disaster has been severe not
just on the affected population, but also on local government institutions. Many VDC office
premises have collapsed, and staff have been
personally affected. The situation is not very different at the district level, with the district administration similarly struggling to provide necessary services to thousands of affected people.
The massive scale of the destruction wrought
by the disaster and the urgency of the proposed
interventions pose a huge challenge in the current context when district and local government
capacities are already depleted. Coordination of
recovery activities and their implementation is
most likely to require additional capacities at almost all levels.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Access
Even in normal times, many VDCs in the affected districts are not easily accessible. The
earthquakes and ensuing secondary disasters
have made access to remote, far-flung communities even more difficult. This lack of access not
only hinders provision of services and assistance
to the affected communities in such areas, but
also poses a challenge for the effective linkages of
such communities with markets to buy essential
items or sell their produce.
Issues Relating to Emerging Risks and
Vulnerabilities
Institutional Aspects
The existing DRM legislation is response-centric
and does not adequately address risk analysis
and management. Likewise, the current institutional set-up is yet to drive the risk reduction
agenda across a range of ministries, departments
and sub-national institutions, and provide specific budgetary allocations for implementing
risk reduction actions.
The National Strategy on Disaster Risk Management 2009 has not been fully translated into
concrete action and DRR activities have been
largely driven by project-based international
(external) assistance. Lack of adequate capacities
at national and sub-national levels, including
human resources, will also adversely impacted
DRR activities and the ability to respond at the
district level. The most critical issue noted is the
urgent need to regulate physical development by
integrating disaster risks at the district level as
well as at the national level.
Building Codes
The existing risks and vulnerabilities associated
with building construction are linked to several
urban trends such as addition of storeys, conversion of building occupancy from residential
to commercial/educational/health, increased
construction in the periphery of municipalities
with feeble by-laws, and high rises on small plots
compromising on structural stability. The destruction and damage of almost 800,000 houses
and buildings is largely attributable to over 90
percent of buildings being non-engineeredrural areas have stone with mud mortar as the
most common housing typology.
275
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
National Building Code (NBC) implementation, approved in 2005, is mandatory in all municipalities as per amendment to Building Act
in 2007, but its enforcement is weak due to limited governance capacities, technical and financial resources, shortage of skilled workers and
a lack of political commitment. NBC compliant buildings even in severely-affected districts
and retrofitted schools were found undamaged,
which needs to inform the reconstruction programme. However, NBC implementation has
not addressed common rural housing typologies
in rural areas. Rural vulnerability is associated
with socio-economic factors, NBC guidance,
low-skill manpower etc. Unless the reconstruction is regulated through risk-sensitive land use
planning, NBC, governed by well-resourced
local governments and a skilled workforce, the
vulnerabilities could increase, creating a perfect
breeding ground for future earthquake disasters.
Land Use and Settlement Planning
The post-earthquake reconstruction in both urban and rural areas could lead to tremendous
pressure on land and natural resources. In addition to a staggering increase in built-up areas in
already dense urban centres, it can also accelerate the conversion of agricultural land to builtup in the peripheral region of Kathmandu Valley
and the newly declared municipalities; and unplanned settlements along the transport network.
This scenario will further increase the exposure
of the population and assets to different hazards
and decrease the capacity of emergency services in
case of a disaster. Rural areas that do not consider
risk-sensitive land use planning effectively will be
at even higher flood and landslide risks.
Hazard and Risk Mapping and Application
Risk assessments appear to be fragmented and
methodology are not unified that suits a particular demand for application, i.e., for contingency
planning and preparedness as well as in mainstreaming DRR into development sectors. Limited studies exist for areas outside Kathmandu.
The need for studies about emerging risks such
as landslides and the onset of monsoon was
not anticipated and many districts rely on local
knowledge and reports from security forces. Limited hospital and school safety assessments and
follow-up in addressing structural vulnerabilities
is manifested in the damage to over 7,000 schools
276
and 500 health facilities. The actual application
of risk assessment studies remains low and, when
used, it is for prioritizing response, relief and recovery, not for planning risk reducing measures.
Coordination among the ministries still needs
improvement on integration of DRR, CRM into
critical sectors in practical terms.
Preparedness and Response to Address Monsoon Related Risks
The on-going initiatives to stabilize slopes and
reduce landslide risks have not been sufficient in
coverage or scope to address the increased risk of
landslides after the April 25 earthquake. Cracks
have been observed along slopes in several districts indicating occurrence of landslides even by
a lower threshold of rainfall intensity. This situation is compounded by a declining trend of forest
cover and high annual soil erosion rates, ranging
from 2,700 to 57,000 tonnes per sq. kilometre in
the middle mountains. Anticipated El Niño conditions could result in increased variability and
higher risk due to high dependence on agriculture and other climate-sensitive natural resources.
Possible Relocation of Populations Most At
Risk to Other Regions
Many of the people living in temporary sites
would need to be permanently relocated to new
sites. This process needs proper consideration
of multi-hazard risks along with availability
of suitable livelihoods in new locations. The
relocation process should also consider socioeconomic vulnerabilities related to land and
population needs with special attention to most
vulnerable households.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
Due to the multi-hazard risks that confronts
Nepal, it is crucial to rebuild a better, safer and
more resilient society by mainstreaming DRR
into recovery strategy and encouraging DRR
investment with a BBB approach.
The affected communities’ current living conditions and unsafe environment exacerbate their
exposure to hazards and increase their vulnerabilities. They can be affected by the monsoon and
these accumulated impacts can further diminish
any existing coping mechanism. Urban and rural
communities will be both impacted, but those
already living in poverty and living in marginal
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
areas will suffer the most. In addressing their immediate recovery needs if recovery programmes
ignore the importance of incorporating DRR,
gains can be negated and pre-disaster vulnerabilities can be recreated or worsened.
As a cross-cutting theme, strengthening the
DRR system necessary for resilient recovery is
an imperative. Damaged assets, such as early
warning systems, EOCs, SAR, logistics and other public infrastructure for efficient and timely
emergency response associated with the monsoon and potential major earthquakes, need to
be restored urgently. Existing DRR assets need
to be up-scaled, performance of the system improved, and coherence and coordination enhanced to prepare sufficiently for future crisis
events. Restoration of livelihoods, particularly
those that are climate sensitive, need to be riskinformed, such as the application of seasonal
variability forecast to agriculture and water resource management.
The post-earthquake recovery should also be
used as an opportunity to promote strategic
changes in how DRM is planned, organized,
coordinated, implemented, scaled-up and sustained in Nepal. With a focus on earthquakeaffected areas, the necessary enhancement and
clarification of policies and institutional set-up
must be supported. There is urgency to conduct
multi-hazard risk assessment that can guide
construction of safer housing and infrastructure,
and identification of safer settlements. With
danger still lingering in people’s mind, generation of science-based risk information and its
dissemination through public awareness and
community-based approaches is crucial, particularly in rural communities. Development
sectors at risk should be guided by appropriate
tools and methodology to plan and apply risk
reduction measures.
For all this to happen, the enhancement of risk
governance, i.e., policy and institutional capacities at all levels of governance, is important both
in the short and long term. Tied up with efforts in the governance sector, risk management
capacities must be improved and vertical and
horizontal integration be promoted. Based on
these, the Government of Nepal has identified
the following priorities:
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Short term:
• Reconstruction of damaged DRR assets and
improvements
• Improving preparedness, response, relief and
logistics systems
• Strengthening information and communication capacities for relief, response and recovery
• Enhancing multi-hazard risk monitoring,
vulnerability assessment, risk information
dissemination and awareness
Medium to long term:
• Improving legal and institutional arrangements
• Mainstreaming DRM into development sectors, particularly housing and private and
public infrastructure, social sectors (health
and education) and livelihoods
• Improving integration of CCA and DRR
into policy guidelines and institutional development.
The total estimated reconstruction needs for the
DRR affected sector is NPR 504.44 million.
Based on the BBB concept to further build resilience, a total additional recovery cost of NPR
7,699.57 million is estimated. Consultations
among sector experts, representatives of governments, civil society and development partners
informed this estimate.
The estimate of reconstruction needs is NPR
504.44 million, with the highest cost of needs
in hydro-meteorological stations (NPR 343.43
million). Other needs are as follows: NPR
139.76 million for SAR; NPR 14.16 million
for field offices of the Department of Water Induced Disaster Prevention, and NPR 7.1 million for EOCs.
The immediate replacement of lost and damaged assets and scaling-up to a minimum level
required for SAR and hydro-meteorological
related systems (such as flood forecasting and
early warning systems) are urgent, particularly
given the probability of continued seismic activities and high possibility of floods and landslides with onset of the monsoon. During the
recovery phase, by incorporating BBB principles
through automation/telemetry of damaged stations, DHM could also contribute to improved
agro-advisory for climate-informed agriculture
practices to safeguard livelihoods.
277
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
DRR Recovery Needs
Recovery needs in DRR are to improve performance, scale-up and enhance coherence of the
DRR system in Nepal. Six broad categories of
activities are recommended.
Improving preparedness for response, relief
and logistics systems
The main lessons learnt is that investment in
preparedness, particularly on life-saving capacities and relief materials, were inadequate. While
there have been ongoing initiatives on SAR, establishment of EOCs, warehousing and prepositioning of relief supplies, the effectiveness of response to future disaster events can be enhanced
through increased support in these capacities.
This will require NPR 4,691.32 million
In the aftermath of a disaster, the affected population needs SAR service, especially within the
‘golden 24 hours’. Within the first month, communities will need timely support and access to
emergency services such as temporary shelter,
food, health, water and sanitation, and protection services. There is also a need for improved
capacity of government systems for effective
coordination and communication to ensure
proper mobilization of response that delivers
services to the most needy. Given the remoteness of many places in the country and the need
to access them during SAR services, Nepal needs
capacity for remote areas operation and this can
be supported by institutionalizing cooperation
with the private sector, mutual aid schemes with
neighbouring countries and enhancing standby
arrangements for crucial airborne capacity for
SAR with the UN. While acquisition of dedicated air transport is desirable, this is costly. The
establishment of a disaster management training
centre can play an instrumental role in strengthening disaster response capacity at national and
local levels, further bolstering the capacities at
Nepal Army, Armed Police Force and Police for
SAR and evacuation.
Likewise, stockpiling of life-saving NFRI such
as shelter kits remains very useful in addressing
immediate needs of displaced populations within
the first 72 hours, before international assistance
starts flowing in to the country. This further needs
to be complemented with increased warehousing
and logistics capacity in selected locations outside
Kathmandu. The scaling-up and strengthening of
the EOC network across the country, along with
human resources development, periodic drills at
district level and effective information management capacity, will add to emergency preparedness, resulting in improved surveillance, and a coordination and command system. Key activities
and result areas will include:
Table 20.2: Costing of Recovery Needs
Recovery needs
Enhancing multi-hazard risk monitoring, vulnerability assessment,
risk information dissemination and awareness
Improving legal and institutional arrangements
Total
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
1,403
2,956
3,341
7,700
105
230
665
1,000
59
299
312
670
Improving preparedness, evidence-based response, relief and logistics system, public education
1,061
1,937
1,693
4,691
Strengthening information and communication capacities for relief,
response and recovery
112
167
145
423
Improving integration of climate change adaptation and DRR, policy
guidelines, institutional development
25
90
185
300
41
234
341
615
504
-
-
504
Mainstreaming DRM into development sectors
Reconstruction
Emergency operation centres
7
7
Hydro-meteorological observation networks
343
-
-
343
Search & rescue and fire services
140
-
-
140
14
-
-
14
1,907
2,956
3,341
8,204
River/ Flood protection embankments
Total
278
Financial year (NPR million)
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Preparedness for Response
• Strengthening and expansion of EOCs to all
districts and enhancing community outreach
for better preparedness.
• Conducting periodic monsoon forums as a
regular forum, integrating scientific information providers such as DHM with the climate sensitive user sectors, to improve preparedness at national and district levels.
• Creation of sustainable national SAR capacity with the Nepal Army, Armed Police Force
and Nepal Police through the implementation
of programmes designed as per the National
Strategic Action Plan on SAR. A gap identified is a lack of air rescue capacity at regional
levels across the country so that SAR action
is immediate, prompt and effective. This
could be achieved through provisioning of
an MI-8 helicopter at the regional level with
its required level of operation management
structure. Provisioning budgets for helicopters may require considerable resources. This
could be achieved by embedding it within the
SAR strategic plan, managed under the Nepal
Army annual budgeting system, or by provisioning a standby contract with some air service provider company/ies for emergency air
SAR that could be activated through MoHA
(or a regional administration office) in the
event of a disaster.
• Strengthening preparedness/response effectiveness and information coordination in
districts and communities by leveraging existing technologies such as mobile SMS and
local radio stations to engage with communities and facilitate their active participation in
response and recovery.
• Community-based disaster preparedness
programmes are designed and implemented
with the participation and engagement of
the community, including women and other disadvantaged groups. Women must be
given the opportunity to assume leadership
positions in the process.
• Disaster preparedness and contingency plans
are prepared or reviewed at community and
district levels in consultation with the community, including women and other disadvantaged groups. They participate in mock
drills and are trained so that they have the
capacity to reduce the impact of the disaster.
• Standardizing cable and wireless communications (CWC) and use of common messag-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
es as part of preparedness and response and
the need for a sustained (five year) communications campaigns for risk reduction to all
communities, including migrants.
Logistics Systems and Relief
• Enhanced effectiveness of emergency relief
through logistics hubs for food stocks, prepositioned emergency response supplies, emergency telecommunications, stacking shipping containers, and temperature-controlled
environment to store special nutritious food,
medicines and vaccines to cater to vulnerable groups such as pregnant women, elderly
citizens, infants and children. It will also
strengthen the four existing government warehouses to become disaster resistant and be able
to deliver during an emergency. Two major
hubs spread across the Tarai region should
also be set up to cover the five development
zones. Ten additional smaller hubs spread in
hilly and mountainous regions can also be set
up in a hub-and-spoke configuration.
• Development of logistics management capacity at district, region and national levels.
• Provisioning of life-saving relief materials
such as shelter kits and NFRIs in the hubs.
• Provisioning of a system of having virtual
stock of life-saving relief materials.
Strengthening Information and Communication Capacities for Relief, Response
and Recovery
At a cost of NPR 423.25 million, priority needs
should focus on strengthening and harmonizing
the existing DRR portal and SAHANA DMIS
with associated disaster databases like DesInventar; and capacity building and training for
communications personnel at the national level,
including the designated recovery agency.
• Capacity building and trainings on Big Data
mining for major events, engaging with leading specialized institutions to create national
capacities for mining data from social forums
to create and validate data points, and effectiveness of various activities and gauge trajectory of on-going relief and response initiatives to make any mid-course corrections.
• Establish more direct, simple, communitybased information and communication
whereby affected people can convey their
emerging concerns and at the same time local and national governments can relay infor279
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
mation on arrangements being put in place
to support the affected people.
• Strengthening the DRR portal and SAHANA as the emergency preparedness response
tools for effective and coordinated actions
across national and district level stakeholders in any emergency by institutionalizing
them across key ministries and departments
and building capacities for their effective use
in a sustainable manner. Enhance the ability
to systematically record disaster damages and
losses as a basis for monitoring DRR outcome trends.
• Strengthening the communications capacity
of NEOC, including staffing through trained
personnel, noting the huge demand for data
and information updates from government
agencies by national and international media
and the public.
• Creating/strengthening centralized communication capacity at the designated recovery
agency focused on all recovery strategies
and activities for all stakeholders. Trained
personnel would undertake regular communications and outreach to national and
international stakeholders, including public
entities, private sector, UN and international
agencies, international NGOs and the general public. Support for updates through
website(s), social media and mass media are
envisaged. Ensure that the community, including women and other vulnerable groups,
have access to information on services in relation to disaster management such as basic
health services, including reproductive and
sexual health services, compensations, cash
transfers, insurance, social security, credit
and employment.
Enhancing multi-hazard Risk Monitoring,
Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Information
Dissemination and Awareness
Over the years, several institutions in Nepal
have undertaken various types of hazard and
vulnerability assessments. However there is a
need to harmonize the methodologies, identify
and standardize the most appropriate level of
risk and vulnerability information (national
strategic maps/detailed maps at district level)
and disseminate this information widely to
benefit long-term recovery, reconstruction and
280
development planning. Cost of needs identified is NPR 1,000 million.
• To improve technical and human resources
capacity of relevant national technical institutions (under Ministry of Industry, Ministry of
Science, Technology and Environment, Ministry of Irrigation, Ministry of Agriculture,
Ministry of Forests and Soil Conservation)
and of local government, including production of geo-referenced risk information complemented by community-based vulnerability
and capacity assessment (VCA) to support
immediate recovery and reconstruction planning and inform sector programmes, and to
monitor hazards and produce/enhance early
warning and forecast systems for seismic and
hydro-meteorological hazards.
• To assess the potential impacts of multi-hazard exposure on vulnerable groups (children,
women, people with disability, elderly, ethnic groups) and ecosystems. This risk-based
information is to be used at local level in
the affected districts during the immediate
recovery and reconstruction before being extended to other parts of the country.
• To improve the quality of risk information
products and their nationwide dissemination at all levels by developing partnerships
between the government, private sector and
non-governmental organizations to implement informed preparedness, prevention and
mitigation measures.
• To collect and use gender and sex disaggregated data and involve the community,
including women, elderly and the disabled,
in articulating and understanding their own
risks, vulnerabilities and capacities.
Improving Legal and
Institutional Arrangements
At an estimated cost of NPR 670 million, a
broader post-2015 DRM Policy Framework for
Nepal will be planned as an entry point for policy support and system development. Promulgating the much-needed DRM Act and related
regulations will necessitate a dedicated agency
for DRM in Nepal. It is proposed to capacitate
the agency in terms of technical, logistics and
administrative aspects, both at national and local levels. After the establishment of the agency,
a wide range of development policies and guide-
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
lines related to mainstreaming DRM issues may
be needed. The initiatives in improving risk
governance involve the formulation of legislation and establishment of institutional arrangements required to address the current recovery
needs as part of the globally agreed Post-2015
MDG commitment on Sustainable Development Goals. These identified recovery needs will
require NPR 210 million.
architects, mid-level technicians, masons, etc.),
and expanding the electronic building permit
system. Compliance will be further strengthened by implementing a Municipal Information
System (MIS). In order to address the existing
vulnerabilities of building stock, retrofitting
guidelines will be implemented. To implement
the above initiatives an amount of NPR 340
million has been proposed.
One of the key areas under DRR is implementation of safer building construction practices.
The appropriate building by-laws will be formulated to implement the Risk Sensitive Land Use
Plan (RSLUP) in settlements. Compliance to
building codes will be ensured through implementing code compliant manuals, standardization of systems, tools and human resources involved in the construction business (engineers,
To address gaps in risk governance, standard
operating procedures will be developed and,
subsequently, human resources involved will be
trained and the capacity of stakeholders will be
enhanced on DRM. Local government (DDCs,
municipalities, VDCs and line agencies) are the
key implementing hands that will be capacitated
with the appropriate skills, tools and techniques
to implement recovery needs. National training
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
281
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
institutes such as Nepal Administration Staff
College, Local Development Training Academy and Council for Technical Education and
Vocational Training will be mobilized to train
government officials. Involvement of the private
sector on current recovery needs as well as on
DRM is key, and a national strategy on publicprivate partnership will be developed.
Mainstreaming DRM into Development
Sector, Particularly Buildings (private and
public) and Livelihoods
One of the broader areas of the recovery needs
is mainstreaming DRR into development sectors with the BBB approach. This is estimated to
cost NPR 615 million. The National Building
Code is one such tool that incorporates earthquake-resistant design of buildings. This existing
building code is however 20 years old and needs
to be revised. Similarly, appropriate guidelines
related to risk sensitive infrastructure design
and construction processes will be developed. A
common methodology for preparing RSLUPs
to be used in all the settlements will be developed. The RSLUP will be integrated with the
land management policy. A building research
institute will be set up and institutionalized to
address the technological gap with regard to the
appropriate technology and building materials
required to address the needs of the diverse geographical and ethnic population in Nepal.
DRR mainstreaming initiatives in health and
educational buildings will be implemented by
integration of DRR into health and education
development policies, based on which relevant
strategies and action plans will be developed. To
implement the above action plans, the institutional framework of the agencies will be reviewed
and gaps addressed. As part of the livelihoods
sector, a risk profile of the communities will be
prepared and appropriate mitigation measures
will be implemented. Further, multi-livelihood
options in areas such as building construction,
agriculture, tourism and micro enterprises will
be developed and implemented.
All above sectoral initiatives will be complemented by a series of capacity development
282
activities at national, local and community levels. Technical skills will be enhanced through
existing training institutes as well as proposed
institutions such as an Engineering Staff College, Building Research Centres and a dedicated
agency for DRM.
Improving Integration of Climate Change Adaptation and DRR Policy Guidelines in Institutional Development
It is critical to address the felt need to integrate
CAA and DRR into policy guidelines to ensure
climate resilient recovery and reconstruction.
This will cost NPR 300 million. The following
actions are recommended:
• To improve climate change modelling in the
country to define future trends, vulnerability indices, and institutionalize climate risk
management and adaptation measures. The
dissemination of climate change risk information will be highly important at national
and local levels to inform planning and sustainable investments in preparedness, prevention and mitigation.
• To operationalize integration of CCA and
DRR in sectoral programming at national
and district levels. Support district and local bodies to contextualize their needs and
priorities for implementation of measures
such as watershed-based approach to address
DRR and CCA through planning cycle, especially the District Risk Management Plans
and District Disaster Response Plans as well
as annual and periodic sectoral plans.
• To demonstrate the benefits of integrated
and unified CCA and DRR in at least five
demonstration projects at national and community levels. These will be designed and
implemented in various sectors (energy, agriculture, flood and landslides risk management) to generate evidence for scaling-up of
future integrated interventions.
Assessment Methodology
Data was collected in close collaboration with
the key government agencies, and the following
means were employed:
a) Baseline data and information was reviewed,
including the Self-Assessment reports for
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
Hyogo Framework of Action, DesInventar
data, MOHA DRR Portal, Monitoring networks of hydro-meteorology, seismology.
b)Templates to collect data on damages (and
losses) were shared and filled with support
from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Department of Water Induced
Disaster Prevention, Nepal Police, NEOC,
MoHA and cross-checked.
c) Field visits were made to three affected districts (Nuwakot, Kavrepalanchowk and Kath-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
mandu) to meet key authorities, affected population and discuss performance of the DRR
system. Focus Group discussions were held
with some of the affected communities.
d) Consultations with relevant national authorities including the NPC, MoHA and others
contributed to the assessment and to identify
recovery needs based on the BBB principles
building on the on-going and planned interventions and strategies.
283
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
284
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
22. Poverty and Human Development
Introduction
Although human development (HD) is to a large
extent intangible, there are several indicators that
can capture relevant dimensions of it, such as income, assets, health, education, inequity, social
cohesion, gender inequality, child welfare, human
rights, security, and psychological well-being. All
of these have been affected by the earthquake, the
duration of the negative impact depending on the
adoption of a careful approach towards resilient
rebuilding, meaningful partnership between the
stakeholders, and amount of incremental development assistance. Poverty is one of the most important considerations, because it affects all other
aspects of HD. There is a significant proportion
of the Nepali population that subsists just above
the US$1.25 line but below US$2. The vulnerability of this group, especially female-headed
families and those with a high-dependency rate
is a serious concern. The second immediate effect has been felt in education, especially in the
schooling subsector due to the destruction of infrastructure and mental trauma experienced by
young students.
This assessment enumerates some of the important indicators, such as poverty rates, relating to
HD that prevailed even before the event, both
at the national and regional level – and, where
possible, for the 19 districts categorized as ‘crisis-hit’ and ‘hit with heavy losses’ in the first section. The second section captures the immediate
effects on HD through primary field surveys
in some of the severely-affected districts. The
last section is devoted to the channels through
which poverty rates and HD may be affected in
the medium to long term.
Pre-earthquake Poverty and
HD Profile
Baseline indicators of the
19 affected districts
Focusing on the 19 most-affected districts, some
key baseline indicators including the human
development index (HDI) suggest that the af-
fected districts had:
a.HDI comparable to the national average
(.490) or significantly higher for three districts in Kathmandu Valley, Kavrepalanchowk and Makawanpur;
b.
Per capita GDP well above the
national average.
This presents a rather complex challenge: The
recovery plan will need to focus on the affected
districts but at the same time demonstrate an understanding that the low HDI districts of Nepal
require equal attention, financial and otherwise.
The proportion of out migrants in the total
population and, consequently, the share of
remittances is significant in predominantly
female-headed household income. Therefore,
given the uncertainty surrounding the readiness
or willingness of migrants who returned home
after the earthquake, the longer-term effect on
household income may be significant. Labour
productivity is also on the high side in these districts, directly contributing to the overall growth
rate of the economy. Thus, if livelihoods are not
restored quickly, the national growth rate will
suffer and, consequently, so will HD.
Poverty and Inequality
The national poverty rate declined steadily from
41.8 percent in 1996 to 2011 to 25.2 percent.
While rural poverty declined throughout, urban
poverty increased in the latter half of the stated
period. The fact that the number of urban poor
doubled between 1996 and 2011 speaks for
itself. As the number of rural poor has fallen,
the trend towards ‘urbanization’ of poverty has
gathered strength, according to the head-count
criterion in Nepal.
There is high variation in poverty rates amongst
the different analytical domains of the country.
The urban hill region (basically Kathmandu
Valley) is the least poor region, with a poverty
incidence of just 9 percent. The depth and severity of poverty is also the lowest for this region.
Within urban areas, poverty ranges from 9 per-
285
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
cent in the urban hills to 22 percent in urban
Tarai. Within rural hills, poverty ranges from 16
percent in the Eastern region to 37 percent in
the mid and Far Western region. Within rural
Tarai, poverty ranges from 21 percent in the
Eastern region to 31 percent in the mid and Far
Western region. Within each of the development regions except the Eastern, the hills have
higher poverty rates than the Tarai.
This trend is driven mainly by remittances.
Inequality has been a cause of concern in Nepal
– among other things, due to its implications for
social cohesion, which is an important aspect of
HD. The trends in consumption inequality in
Nepal over the three rounds of household surveys
conducted in 1996, 2005 and 2011 show that the
Gini coefficient based on per capita consumption
returned to its 1996 value after a temporary rise
in 2003. Urban inequality rose moderately but
fell more sharply, although it is higher than rural
inequality. The shares of the top and bottom 20
percent also remain more or less unchanged between 1996 and 2011. One can conclude that the
trend towards rising inequality witnessed during
1996-2003 was somewhat reversed subsequently,
during 2003-2011. Having gone through a decade-long conflict, these are remarkable achievements in poverty and consumption-based inequality reduction. The massive destruction of
livelihoods in the affected districts, disruption of
basic services, limited access to facilities including
relief, are likely to increase inequality, given that
the poorer sections of the population have been
more severely affected.
According to World Bank estimates, “poverty
in the districts that have been hardest hit range
from among the lowest in the country in urban
Kathmandu to among the highest in the mountainous VDCs of Gorkha, closer to the epicentre.
Overall, the poverty rate is around 9.7 percent
in the urban parts of the affected areas and 26.5
percent in the rural parts. Poverty is deeper – that
is, those below the poverty line are further away
from the poverty line – in the rural parts of the
affected regions than the average poverty depths
in the other parts of the country. Using a slightly
moderate definition of poverty (twice the poverty
line) to take into account the larger concentration
of households that are vulnerable to falling back
into poverty, 51.7 percent of the population in
the urban areas and 66.8 percent in rural areas
within the earthquake-affected region are either
already poor or at risk of falling into poverty.”
Multi-dimensional Poverty Index
The Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index (MPI)
identifies deprivations across income, education
and health, showing the number of people who
are multi-dimensionally poor and the number
of deprivations that poor households typically
have to endure. The latest MPI (.217) showed
that 44.2 percent of Nepalis live in acute multidimensional poverty. But Nepal’s MPI is now
below that of India, Pakistan or Bangladesh.87
Thus, over five years, Nepal reduced the percent-
Between 1990 and 2004, the ‘below US$1.25’
poverty rate declined at an annualized rate of
5.11 percent, while the ‘below US$2’ poverty
rate fell at the rate of 0.9 percent. But, if we
take the more recent sub-period of 2004-2011,
the numbers are very different: Poverty below
the US$1.25 line declined at 2.8 percent, while
poverty below the US$2 declined at 4.2 percent.
Table 22.1: Poverty and Vulnerability Profile of the Earthquake-affected Regions
Profiles
Affected regions
Rural
Poverty rate (%)
9.7
26.5
26.5
Poverty gap, FGT(1)x100
2.5
6.7
5.4
Squared poverty gap, FGT(2)x100
Moderate poor (% below 2xpoverty line
51.7
66.8
76.1
Food poor (%)
11.3
24.8
24.9
Source: WB Staff calculations based on NLSS III (2010/11), 2015
The MPI in 2010, based on data collected in 2006 was 0.35, significantly higher than the latest figure.
87
286
Relatively unaffected regions
Urban (including
Kathmandu valley)
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
the national level may not alter much, regional
variances will widen.
age of MPI poor people by 20.5 percent and
reduced the intensity by 5 percent. At the national level, Nepal’s progress with MPI is driven
by three sub-components: electricity, assets and
nutrition. It is widely believed that remittances
received from abroad are the primary factor as
far as asset accumulation and nutrition status
are concerned. Assets have been destroyed by the
earthquake and nutrition status is also at risk at
the moment. The MPI in the affected districts
could seriously deteriorate.
Millennium Development Goals
Nepal is known as a success story in MDGs. The
following table summarizes the achievements in
Goals 1-7, according to the latest report published by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP).
There is outstanding progress in most of the indicators at the national level, although it should
be borne in mind that there are spatial and
socio-economic group-based disparities. Nepal
achieved its poverty reduction target well before
the deadline. There are, however, concerns with
gender parity, especially women’s enrolment in
tertiary education. The disruption of schooling,
and the loss of motivation of students to study,
However, within Nepal, the fastest reduction
in MPI has been in the western Tarai, where
the total number of poor went down from 67
percent to 33 percent in five years. The farwestern Tarai also saw a dramatic drop from
81 percent poverty to 50 percent. These are not
among the areas that were most severely affected by the earthquake. Therefore, while MPI at
Table 22.2: Selected MDG Indicators for Nepal
Goals
Indicators
Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
US$ 1.25 per day poverty (%)
23.7 (2010)
Country line poverty (%)
25.2 (2010)
Underweight children (% under 5 age)
29.1 (2011)
Primary enrollment ratio (%)
98.5 (2013)
Reaching last grade (%)
55.3 (2012)
Primary completion rate (%)
99.8 (2013)
Gender parity index in primary education
1.00 (2012)
Gender parity index in secondary education
1.06 (2014)
Gender parity index in tertiary education
0.64 (2011)
Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)
41.6 (2012)
Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)
33.6 (2012)
Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 live births)
190 (2013)
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower
women
Goal 4: Reduce child mortality
Goal 5: Improve maternal health
Skilled birth attendance (%)
Antenatal care (>= 1 visit) (%)
Achievement (year)
36 (2011)
58.3 (2011)
Goal 6: Combat HIV and AIDS, malaria and
other diseases
HIV prevalence(% ages 15-49)
0.2 (2013)
TB incidence rate(per 100,000)
163 (2012)
TB prevalence rate(per 100,000)
241 (2012)
Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
Forest cover(% land area)
25.4 (2010)
Protected area(% territorial area)
16.38 (2012)
CO2 emissions per GDP(kg CO2 per $1 GDP (PPP))
0.116 (2010)
Safe drinking water(% population)
88 (2012)
Basic sanitation(% population)
37 (2012)
Source: Asia-Pacific Regional MDG Report 2014-2015
287
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
may affect the ‘reaching final grade’ percentage,
which is already on the lower side. Due to the
destruction of health facilities and disruption
of health services, maternal mortality rate – an
area where Nepal made outstanding strides,
could be affected negatively.
Findings on Immediate HD Effect from
Primary Surveys
The immediate effect of an earthquake on human development is that it makes families
homeless, jobless or without a livelihood, vulnerable to food insecurity and diseases, and disrupt the normal education schedule. All of these
add up to immense psychological stress, which
no scale can measure, but leads to job abandonment and productivity, and income losses.
A primary survey of 408 displaced households
was conducted in six severely-affected districts,
a month after the April 25 earthquake: Sindhupalchowk, Sindhuli, Gorkha, Kathmandu,
Bhaktapur and Lalitpur.88 Half the respondents
were women. The main message that comes
through is one of extreme uncertainty about
what lies ahead, captured by the diverse nature
of responses to all the questions asked. The uncertainty is about life (possibility of the disaster
repeating itself ), and livelihood. This state of
mind is in itself a serious negative effect on one’s
perception of well-being.
Overall, 95 percent of the people surveyed received relief, 68.8 percent perceived them as fair,
61 percent went back to their normal occupation,
82 percent wanted to return to their original village (of those who did, only 38.3 percent wanted
to settle in a new location in the old village), 19.8
percent received remittances before the quake (of
which only 26.6 percent did so after the event),
13.2 percent of migrants returned from their
jobs abroad, and the average loss of annual income predicted was 32.8 percent.
Ninety nine per cent of households in Gorkha
received relief and 95 percent perceived them
88
288
as ‘fair’. Nearly 90 percent were back to their
normal occupation (which is mainly subsistence farming). This is in sharp contrast to the
response received in Kathmandu district, where
only 20 percent described relief distribution as
fair and 43.8 percent were able to return to their
normal occupation. Lalitpur and Bhaktapur
responded similarly to Kathmandu. In Sindhupalchowk, only 25 percent of the people were
able to return to their normal occupation. Only
around 20 percent of the people “did not want”
to go back to their village of origin.
Households that are still unable to return to
their original occupation are compelled to
adopt different kinds of coping mechanisms
after the earthquake. The households of each
district are adopting a particular type of coping
mechanism which differs by district. The following chart summarizes coping mechanisms.
The ‘other’ category includes drawing mainly
on personal savings, reflected in significant
cash demand from banks.
Nearly 44 percent of the surveyed HHs are
coping with relief support, while 31 percent
have acquired new debt. HHs in Gorkha, as
noted before, have resumed their normal livelihoods, but the income generated from them
is clearly insufficient to meet their needs: as a
result, they are incurring new debt. The loss
due to the earthquakes (house, livestock and
other productive assets) differs by district.
These numbers should be interpreted jointly
with the per capita incomes of the districts. For
example, Kathmandu has one of the highest
per capita incomes, and the reported average
loss due to collapsed/damaged house is NPR
2,574,413, which is several times higher than
that in Gorkha (NPR 895,600).
Gender
Sindhupalchowk, with nearly 95 percent toilet
coverage before the earthquake, was about to be
declared an ODF (Open Defecation Free) district. But, about 80 percent of the toilets have
The questions focused on the (a) damage/loss of house, livestock and other assets (b) HH Income (without remittance) (c) migration and remittance (do they receive remittance, if yes, what is the monthly average remittance received, if they received remittance after the earthquake, did the family member who was abroad for employment
return after the earthquake, if s/he has returned, how long will s/he stay back: one month, 1-3 months, 3-6 months, > 6 months) (e) relief (food, shelter, others; how long
will it sustain them, is the distribution fair or up to their expectations) (f ) coping mechanism (resumed normal work or not, if not how are they surviving – relief, debt,
community support if any, how much longer before they anticipate going back to their original livelihood) (g) relocation/resettlement (if they wish to go back to their
original village/home, if not, what could be the reasons, if yes, would they want to be relocated if such opportunity is provided).
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
now collapsed. Women’s and girls’ health and
safety will negatively suffer. Likewise, the existing
475 drinking water schemes have collapsed. This
will have a direct negative impact on women’s
and girls’ work in the form of increased drudgery as they will have to walk much farther to
fetch water. Similarly, in Kavrepalanchowk, 22
VDCs were already designated ODF. The DDC
was preparing to declare the entire district as
ODF by December 2015. But now most of the
drinking water schemes have been damaged. An
important dimension of poverty is time poverty,
which can be broadly understood in the context
of the burden of competing claims on individuals’ time that reduce their ability to make unconstrained choices on how they allocate their time,
leading, in many instances, to increased work
intensity and to tradeoffs among various tasks.
Time poverty can exacerbate income poverty in
poor households in several ways, and many of
these particularly affect women.
Poverty and food insecurity will increase in the
aftermath of the earthquake. Dalits, the landless,
and female-headed households (FHHs) will face
a severe crisis as their coping capacity and scale
of resilience are usually very low. It is important
to note that in 14 hard-hit districts, the share of
FHHs ranges between 21.3 percent (Nuwakot
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
and Kavre) to 37.2 percent (Gorkha). As the
number of single-headed households and FHHs
are likely to rise in the aftermath of the earthquake, there should be a special support system
to promote their survival and social resilience.
The effect on children has been significant. Four
child-focused agencies, Plan International, Save
the Children, United Nations Children’s Fund,
and World Vision International Nepal, are currently undertaking a children’s consultation in
the 14 most affected districts. Their preliminary
findings from Focus Group discussions (FGDs)
reveal several effects on children, ranging from
concerns like shelter, education, food, hygiene,
and access to drinking water, and other issues
(unfair distribution, psychosocial support).
In 16 out of 24 FGDs, children groups identified shelter as the first priority issue in the current context and children in five FGDs said it
was the second most important issue for them.
Major problems relating to shelter listed by
children are as follows:
a.Houses have collapsed and they do not
know when new ones will be built;
b. Houses have developed cracks and they are
unable to live inside them;
Table 22.3: Coping Mechanisms of Households by District
Coping mechanisms of HHs by district
Kathmandu
Lalitpur
Bhaktapur
Sindhupalchowk
Sindhuli
Gorkha
Total
Living with
Relief Support
Living with
Community Support
Living with
debt
Other
Total
4.00
2.00
7.00
4.00
17.00
23.53
11.76
41.18
23.53
100.00
3.00
8.00
5.00
0.00
16.00
18.75
50.00
31.25
0.00
100.00
16.00
17.00
0.00
1.00
34.00
47.06
50.00
0.00
2.94
100.00
63.00
4.00
29.00
10.00
106.00
59.43
3.77
27.36
9.43
100.00
3.00
1.00
15.00
3.00
22.00
13.64
4.55
68.18
13.64
100.00
0.00
0.00
7.00
1.00
8.00
0.00
0.00
87.50
12.50
100.00
89.00
32.00
63.00
19.00
203.00
43.84
15.76
31.03
9.36
100.00
289
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
c. Their parents have no/not enough money to
afford new houses;
d.Parents are stressed due to lack of shelter
and they are not able to pay attention to
children’s needs; and
e. Sleeping under the tents is not comfortable.
Children in seven out of 24 FGDs stated that
education is the first priority need for them,
whereas children in 12 FGDs cited education
as the second most important issue. They have
lost the motivation and confidence to study as
their learning habits have been disrupted. They
fear that they might have forgotten what they
have learned, which may make it difficult to pass
their exams. The extent of damages and losses has
been the highest in school education, with the
subsector accounting for 88.8 percent of the total
damages and losses faced by the entire education
sector. The earthquakes and series of continuing
aftershocks led to the complete closure of schools
and colleges for 37 days (26 April–30 May) in the
affected districts, forcing more than five million
children and youth to stay out of educational institutions for a significant stretch at a time when
the academic year had just started. The standard
number of days on which school remains open
annually is 220 days, with 190 days for teaching
and learning. Therefore, actual physical damage
to schools, compounded by the psychological
trauma of students, may have a significant impact
on all education related HD outcomes.
Among the most common concerns expressed
by the children was that there is not enough food
for the whole family and they have to depend on
neighbours and relief handouts and, because of
this, they do not get to eat on time. Hygiene
and access to drinking water is another area that
was prioritized by children. Out of 24 groups
consulted, two groups prioritized it as the second most important problem for them. Issues
listed by the children include the lack of toilets,
littering of garbage, insufficient water supply,
and contaminated water due to damage at the
source. Due to the shortage of safe drinking water, children are forced to drink river water due
to which they are falling prey to diarrhea.
Channels of Longer-Term
Impact on Poverty and Human
Development
Impact on poverty and human development
relates to the consequences of the effect in the
short, medium and long term. The following
channels are most likely to exert a strong influence on how poverty and HD unfolds in the
wake of disasters.
Migration and Remittances
One of the most important drivers of poverty reduction has been remittances. The following chart provides the share of remittance receiving households,
and the share of remittances in total income.89
The share of remittance in total income went up
significantly between 2004 and 2011 across all
income groups but especially in the upper ones.
The share of households receiving remittances
rose too, but not that sharply. Thus, households
that receive remittances have become increasingly more dependent on them as their main
source of income. If this is not sustained, the income levels of such households take a hit, affecting the poverty rate directly. This will indirectly
impact the growth rate of the economy by reducing investment in human capital, lowering
nutrition/health status and causing a general
slowdown in consumer spending.
Loss of Productive Assets
The main channel that exacerbates poverty is
damage and loss to productive assets. On the
one hand, damage or destruction of houses implies the loss of rental income for many households and, on the other, signifies higher rental
costs for those households previously living in
rented dwellings. Destruction of productive assets such as land, seeds, machineries and working tools implies a loss of wage income as does
the drop in economic activities, namely services
and tourism as seen in the aftermath of the
earthquakes. According to the World Bank,
the most likely scenario will be sandwiched between the extremes presented in the table and
the earthquakes could end up pushing an additional 2.5-3.5 percent Nepalis below the poverty
line. Between 50-70 percent of the total number
pushed into poverty by the earthquakes will be
from rural Central hills and mountains.
‘Inclusive Economic Growth in Nepal’ by Chandan Sapkota, Journal of Poverty Alleviation and International Development, 5(2)
89
290
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 22.4: Poverty Impact Under Three Scenarios
Baseline no.
earthquake
scenario
2015
Low impact
Medium impact
High impact
Housing and durable
assets loss:50%
Housing and durable assets loss:70%
Housing and
durable assets
loss:100%
Annual income loss:35%
Annual income loss:45%
Annual income
loss:50%
Growth rate in
2015/16:4.5%
Growth rate in
2015/16:4.5%
Growth rate in
2015/16:4%
Foreign remittance
increase:15%
Foreign remittance
increase:5%
Foreign remittance
increase:0%
% Poor
% Poor
∆# poor
(in '000)
% Poor
∆# poor
(in '000)
% Poor
National
21.2
23.2
561
24
786
24.9
1038
Mountains
35.9
41.1
102
43.8
152
45.1
180
9.4
12.1
43
13
56
14.6
82
Urban Kathmandu
∆# poor
(in '000)
Urban Hills
7.3
7.8
6
7.8
6
7.8
6
Urban Tarai
17.8
18.3
11
18.3
11
18.4
14
Rural Eastern Hills
13
13.7
13
14.1
19
14.2
22
Rural Central Hills
25.8
36.6
280
41.2
395
45.1
500
Rural Western Hills
21.8
24.3
66
25.8
106
27.1
141
Rural Mid and Far Western Hills
32.8
33.9
27
33.9
27
34.1
32
Rural Eastern Tarai
17.9
18.1
7
18.1
7
18.4
17
Rural Central Tarai
19.3
19.3
0
19.3
0
19.8
22
Rural Western Tarai
18.6
18.6
0
18.6
0
19.2
10
26
26
6
26.3
6
26.6
11
Rural Mid and Far Western Tarai
Source: World Bank, 2015
Human Assets and Economic Vulnerability Indices
There is a likely impact on the human asset and
economic vulnerability indexes (HAI, EVI, respectively), two of the three criteria required
for graduation from being a Least Developed
Country and also closely connected to HD.
The 17th session (March 23-27, 2015) of the
Committee for Development Policy in UNDESA, announced that for the first time Nepal
has met the criteria for graduation, possibly by
2022. Nepal made it to the list mainly due to
its remarkable progress in HAI and EVI. The
composition of HAI used for the 2015 review is
an equally weighted index of percentage of the
population undernourished, mortality rate of
children under five years of age, gross secondary
school enrolment ratio, and adult literacy. For
the next triennial, maternal mortality rate will
be added as an additional criterion.
Thus, while all the pre-existing components will
reflect the effect of the earthquakes, an additional channel has been created through which the
impact of the earthquakes will have long-term
implications for HAI as well as the outcome of
the next triennial review scheduled for 2018. It
could be useful to identify affected women at
different stages of their pregnancies and ensure
that they receive adequate care to give safe birth.
The earthquakes also have implications for the
Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI). Nepal had
achieved the benchmark level according to the
March 2015 review. The EVI comprises two subindices, namely exposure and shock. The shock
sub-index, in turn, includes three components,
namely export instability, victims of natural disasters, and instability of agriculture. All three are
likely to receive at least a temporary setback.
291
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
292
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
23. Macroeconomic Impact Assessment
Summary
Over the past decade, Nepal has been performing reasonably well on the macroeconomic front.
Growth averaged 4.1 percent (basic prices) between 2005 and 2014. Inflation remained in single digits for most of the decade, with the peg of
the Nepalese rupee to the Indian rupee providing
a stable nominal anchor. Fiscal balances remained
sustainable owing to robust and sustained revenue growth and modest spending (particularly
on capital outlays). Nepal’s balances, both current account (CA) and reserves, remained equally
healthy, owing to large and fast-growing remittance inflows that now amount to over a quarter of gross domestic product (GDP) and have
allowed Nepal to finance its large trade deficit.
Following the successful election of the second
Constituent Assembly, Nepal had begun gearing
up for a higher trajectory of economic growth
after decades of policy uncertainty. Over the
past year, it made a transformative leap in the
energy sector by signing a historic power trade
agreement with India and contracts to develop
mammoth hydro-electric plants that would put
the country on a course to increase electricity
generation ten-fold in a decade. The country
was pursuing the next generation of economic
reforms, enacting or revising several dozens of
policies, acts and regulations. Nepal was also on
a firm path to achieving many of the Millennium Development Goals by the end of this year,
including the target of halving absolute poverty.
For the first time in 2015, in the UN’s triennial review, Nepal met the required criteria of
graduating from its status as a Least Developed
Country (LDC), possibly by 2022. Although
the earthquakes have slowed down the momentum of progress on these fronts, this need not
be irrecoverable over the next couple of years if
immediate concerns are met. Most importantly,
these are to restore the productive means of livelihood for millions of women and men in ag-
riculture, services and industry; ensure that the
revenue base for the functioning of the state is
not weakened; that there are macro-prudential
preparations for the likely second-order consequences of the direct impacts on the economy;
and that the Nepali people’s resilience in the face
of growing vulnerabilities is enhanced.
GDP Growth
Pre-earthquake
In recent years, growth has been driven mainly
by the services sector and, to a lesser extent, agriculture, with performance in the former supported by remittance inflows that have fuelled
consumption-led growth, and the latter determined by weather patterns. By contrast, industrial sector growth has remained lacklustre. In
FY2014, overall growth at basic prices reached
5.1 percent,90 reflecting: (i) a base effect after
a disappointing performance in FY2013 (3.8
percent), and (ii) positive developments in agriculture and services (Figure 23.1). Prior to
the earthquakes, the economy was projected to
grow at 4.6 percent in FY2015, with the slight
deceleration relative to FY2014 on account of
lower growth in agricultural output as a result of
delayed monsoon.
Post-earthquake
The earthquakes have further sharpened the rate
of decelerated growth from the pre-earthquake
growth estimate of 4.6 percent. Post-disaster preliminary estimates show that the impact of the
earthquakes is expected to wipe off over 1.5 percentage points off GDP growth rate. The exodus
of people from Kathmandu Valley91 immediately
after the disaster, which is the main consumption centre; general population shifting to saving
mode as compared to earlier conspicuous consumption; loss of income from all three sectors
(agriculture, industry and service sectors); low
absorption capacity of public expenditure; mora-
At market prices, GDP growth in FY2014 was 5.4 percent and 4.1 percent in FY2013. Pre-earthquake GDP growth at market prices was projected at 5 percent, which was
revised down to 3.4 percent after the earthquakes.
91
An estimated 1.2 million people have moved to safer areas and/or to rebuild their houses in affected areas immediately after the earthquakes.
90
293
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Table 23.1: Macroeconomic Indicators92
FY2014 (actual)
FY2015
(pre-quake)
(FY2015 postquake revised
estimate)
FY2016
(projected)
GDP (constant, basic price, NPR million)
669,980
(US$6836.53)
700,667
(US$7113.37)
690,349
(US$7008.62)
728,318 (US$7283.18)
GDP growth rate (percent) (basic prices)
5.05
4.58
3.04
5.50
GDP (current, basic prices, NPR million)
1,736,022
(US$17714.51)
1,924,705
(US$19540.15)
1,893,994
(US$19228.37)
GDP (current market prices, NPR million)
1,941,624
(US$19812.49)
2,161,175
(US$21940.86)
2,124,650
(US$21570.05)
2,422,101 (US$24221.01)
9.1
8.0
7.5
8.5
Total revenue (NPR million)
356,840
(US$3641.22)
422,900
(US$4293.40)
390,000
(US$3959.39)
460,810 (US$4608.10)
Tax revenue (NPR million)
311,800
(US$3181.63)
374,710
(US$3804.16)
349,000
(US$3542.15)
412,310 (US$4123.10)
45,040 (US$459.59)
48,190
(US$489.23)
41,000 (US$416.24)
48,500 (US$485)
434,420 (US$443.06)
618,000
(US$6274.11)
494,000
(US$5015.23)
840,000 (US$8400)
1,565,970
(US$15979.29)
1,815,755
(US$18434.06)
1,816,520
(US$18441.82)
2,143,490 (US$21434.90)
19.1
16.0
16.0
18.0
1,150,825
(US$11743.11)
1,349,100
(US$13696.45)
1,335,120
(US$13554.52)
1,588,790 (US$15887.90)
18.3
18.0
16.0
19.0
Output and prices
CPI inflation (percent)
Fiscal indicators
Non tax revenue (NPR million)
Expenditures (NPR million)
Money and credit
Broad money (NPR million)
Growth rate (percent)
Private sector credit (NPR million)
Growth rate (percent)
External sector
Exports (million NPR)
100,960
(US$1030.20)
94,900 (US$963.45)
95,850 (US$958.50)
Growth rate (percent)
17.4
(6.0)
1.0
Imports (NPR million)
696,370
(US$7105.82)
752,710
(US$7641.73)
889,960 (US$8899.60)
Growth rate (percent)
27.2
8.1
18.2
69,650 (US$710.71)
62,860 (US$638.17)
108,730 (US$1087.30)
45.5
(9.7)
73.0
543,300 (US$554.39)
589,470
(US$5984.47)
627,790 (US$6277.90)
25.0
8.5
6.5
127,130
(US$1297.24)
71,380 (US$724.67)
35,260 (US$352.60)
Grants and loans (NPR million)
Growth rate (percent)
Remittances (NPR million)
Growth rate (percent)
Balance of Payments (NPR million)
Exchange rate used in this section is as follows: US$1=NPR98 for FY2014; US$1= NPR98.47 for FY2015 and US$1=NPR100 for FY2016
92
294
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Figure 23.1: GDP Growth (basic prices)
Post-earthquake GDP growth dropped by 1.5
percentage points from the estimated 4.6percent
in pre-earthquake scenario
6
5.5
5
5.1
4
4.6
4.3
3.9
3.8
3
3.0
2
1
0
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014R
FY2015P
FY2016f
Source: CBS;
Note 1: R (Revised); P (Projected); f (forecast)
torium by the government on building construction; and dearth of a skilled workforce available
for reconstruction and rehabilitation activities for
the remaining part of the fiscal year are few identified channels that will contribute to lower GDP
growth during the remaining fiscal year. The services sector contributes the most to GDP growth
(Figure 23.2). Furthermore, standard national
accounts do not yet value the size of the household ‘care economy’, traditionally largely upheld
by women in Nepal. However, women’s role in
the economy is increasing over the years – the
share of women’s paid employment in the nonagricultural sector has more than doubled, from
just under 19.9 percent in 2009 to 44.8 percent
in 2011. Amidst growing migration of men of
working age, the share of women’s paid and unpaid work is only likely to grow in the aftermath
of the earthquakes.
Agriculture
Pre-earthquake
The agriculture sector accounts for about onethird of GDP and is an important driver of
93
Economic Impacts of the Reconstruction
(Preliminary Findings)
Preliminary projections of the ‘general equilibrium’ effects
of reconstruction using the National Planning Commission’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for
Nepal93 shows that reconstruction will not merely be
about building infrastructure, but will also alter the structure of the economy. Real Gross National Income (GNI) will
increase because of international transfers; real GDP increases because of the ‘multiplier’ effect of the additional
income being spent in the country. There will be reallocation of resources, especially into construction, inducing a
transfer of the factors of production away from other sectors by raising their wage and rent. Consequently, the cost
of production in other sectors, especially tradables, will
rise, possibly hurting export competitiveness. However,
modelling results indicate that the private sector will acquire additional capital stock during reconstruction which
can help sustain modest growth beyond this phase.
The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model under development at the National Planning Commission (NPC) is titled General Equilibrium Model for Nepal and the
World (GEMNW).
295
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
economic growth. The timing and adequacy of
monsoon rains and agricultural inputs, including fertilizers, determine agricultural output. Its
growth averaged 3 percent in the last five years.
In the first half of FY2015, agricultural output
was affected by the delayed as well as subnormal
(winter) monsoon and flooding in various parts
of the country. Paddy production contracted by
5.1 percent compared to 2014 and wheat output
faced a similar fate. Maize output was reduced by
6 percent, which further dampened the already
poor performance of the agriculture sector. As a
result, agriculture growth was expected to be reduced to 2.2 percent in FY2015, compared to 2.9
percent in FY2014.
Post-earthquake
The agriculture sector, especially livestock, has
taken a direct hit. Several factors had already
brought down the agriculture sector’s performance, but it is the loss of livestock that has
further lowered overall growth in the sector after
the earthquakes. Livestock accounts for over 23
percent of value-added in agriculture. The loss
of over 17,000 cattle and about 40,000 smaller,
domesticated animals has resulted in the revision
of the projected growth in agriculture from 2.2
percent to 1.9 percent this year. The estimated
gross value added (GVA)94 losses in the agriculture sector in the final quarter of this fiscal year
are NPR2334.45 million (US$23.7 million).
Damages in this sector have affected at least one
million households, those managed by elderly
people and women suffering the most. Additionally, women who produce 60 percent of the crops
and manage 75 percent of the livestock will be
the hardest hit.
With the El Niño shadow over South Asia, destroyed cultivatable land and displaced rural
workforce, slow replacement rate of livestock and
no other subsectors (within the agriculture sector)
that can quickly fill the loss in the short run, contribution from the agriculture sector is expected
to be below its potential going into FY2016.
Industry
Pre-earthquake
Industrial sector growth rate in FY2014 had
signalled hope of this sector’s rebound and contribution to the economy.Performance of thein-
Figure 23.2: Contributions to GDP Growth (Basic Prices)
5
4
3
3.3
2.9
0
2.5
0.6
0.4
2.9
2.1
2
1
1.6
3.2
0.9
0.6
0.7
1.7
1.7
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
Agriculture
0.4
0.4
FY2013
Industry
0.4
1.0
FY2014R
0.6
FY2015 postearthquake
0.7
0.7
FY2015 preearthquake
Services
Source: CBS
94
296
Gross output is the total value of all goods and services produced during the accountancy period (at basic prices). Intermediate consumption is the total value of goods and
services consumed as inputs by production processes (at purchasers’ prices). Gross value added (GVA) is the difference between gross output and intermediate consumption.
Finally, GDP is equal to GVA, plus taxes, minus subsidies.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
dustry sector – which accounts for about 15.2
percent of GDP –has been lackluster due to
the persistent, binding supply-side constraints.
However, in FY2014, industrial sector growth
rate was 6.2 percent and much of this encouraging upswing was channelled from three subsectors – mining and quarry (growth rate of 5.3
percent), manufacturing (growth rate of 6.3
percent), and construction (growth rate of 7.1
percent). Improving investment climate and
political stability, investments in hydro power
starting to translate into expanded construction
activities and growing consumption helped increase manufacturing output.
Post-earthquake
Industrial sector recovery has been halted. The
earthquakes have shaken industrial sector output, which is expected to grow by only 2.6 percent in the remaining fiscal year. The estimated
GVA losses (in the last quarter of FY2015) are
NPR6195.65 million (US$62.9 million) – of
which manufacturing sector GVA losses are
NPR2649.65 million (US$26.9 million), and
of the construction subsector NPR3142.15 million (US$31.9 million).
Although no overall heavy damage to the country’s manufacturing base was reported, the sudden leave of absence by workers going home to
affected districts, contraction in consumption
and general move of population to saving mode
from earlier conspicuous consumption, disproportionately high production during the fourth
quarter and its cessation leading to income loss
were factors that have led to the slowdown in
the manufacturing sector. In addition, many
manufacturing units, other than those producing Corrugated Galvanized Iron (CGI) sheets
and steel rods, have reported under-utilization
of capacity. Moreover, in the 14 most-affected
districts, a large share of micro enterprises are
households which that suffered significant damage or have collapsed completely.
In the construction subsector, the government’s moratorium on housing construction,
till further notice, contributed to the subsector’s contraction. Construction had started to
pick up in FY2014 after two consecutive years
of weak performance. Renewed financial sector health, together with strengthened supervi-
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
sion by the NRB, boosted residential lending
and higher levels of public capital expenditure,
thereby contributing to the recovery in infrastructure construction. However, in the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes, private construction has slowed down drastically. Though
large public programmes at the districts are unaffected by the earthquake, overall construction
is expected to slow down. The cessation of construction activities in 14 districts has lowered
this sector’s growth rate to 3.6 percent from
the projected estimate of 5.9 percent growth
(pre-earthquake). Compared to the growth rate
of 7.1 percent achieved in FY2014, the sector’s
deceleration is significant. In the following year
(FY2016), however, labour demand for demolition, clearing of debris, and reconstruction of
destroyed and damaged dwellings and other
physical infrastructure will grow. This will increase demand for and earnings of skilled and
unskilled labour in ancillary industries such as
manufacturing and transport. Recovery also
represents a short-term opportunity to kickstart and restore rural livelihoods as well as
promote women’s economic empowerment.
The electricity subsector will face a significant challenge in the medium term, though
there has been no notable drop in production of power in the short term. Nearly 115
MW of hydro power facilities have sustained
damage but increased generation from undamaged power plants assisted in filling the
gap. All transmission facilities, including 42
substations and 57 transmission lines, are in
operation with little disruption of services.
About 800 kilometres of distribution lines at
different voltage levels and 365 transformers of
different capacity (from 15 to 300 kVA) have
been damaged and are out of service. Losses are
estimated to be more than NPR2955 million
(US$30 million) in power sales revenues for independent power producers (IPPs) and about
NPR95.55 million (US$0.97 million) for the
government in royalty payments by Nepal
Electricity Authority(NEA). More importantly, increase in load shedding is almost certain
as a result of significant delays in the completion of power projects, because approximately
1,000 MW of hydro power projects under construction owned by IPPs and NEA have been
partially damaged.
297
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Figure 23.3: Estimated Gross Value Added Loss in Industry
Sector (US$ million)
Mining and quarrying
4.1
Electricity gas and water
0.0
Construction
31.9
Manufacturing
26.9
Source: CBS
Services Sector
Pre-earthquake
Growth rides on service sector performance.The
service sector’s growth has contributed to overall
performance of the economy and has averaged
5.3 percent per annum (FY2010-2014). The anticipated service sector growth rate in FY2015
was 6 percent. Remittances-backed consumption demand is the main driver of services
growth. Wholesale and retail trade; hotels and
restaurants; transport, storage and communication; public administration and defence; education; health and social work; and other community, social and personal activities were all
projected to grow by over 5 percent in FY2015.
Post-earthquakes
Weakened service sector performance will drag
down overall GDP growth. The disruptions
caused by the earthquakes have been the most
severe on service activities. Overall, services
growth is estimated to decline by 2.5 percentage points to 3.9 percent in FY2015 (compared
95
298
to 6.3 percent in FY2014). Losses in three subsectors (wholesale and retail; real estate, renting
and business activities; and transport, storage
and communications) account for 83 percent
of service sector losses. The total GVA losses are
estimated to be NPR22753.5 million (US$231
million) for the rest of FY2015.
Wholesale and retail subsector drop is the
largest in the past five years. The earthquakes
have shaved off 2.2 percentage points of the
anticipated growth rate (of 5.6 percent). This is
largely due to the sharp drop in retail activities
in the major demand centres, decrease in agricultural production and a slowdown in imports.
Total production losses of NPR51909.5 million
(US$527 million) did not enter the market,
the margins of which are the net losses to the
subsector. The total estimated GVA losses are
NPR5791.8 million (US$58.8 million) for the
final quarter of FY2015.
The real estate subsector took the largest hit.
Real estate, renting and business activities are
expected to see the steepest decline after the
earthquakes. With massive destruction of owner-occupied dwellings,95 worth over NPR295.5
billion (US$3 billion), flow arising from this sector has been particularly hard hit. Its growth is
expected to drop by 4.1 percentage points to 0.8
percent, largely due to substantially lower land
and rent related transactions (including buying, selling, renting and operation of self-owned
or leased real estate; and renting of machinery,
equipment and personal and household goods)
arising from the large-scale damage to land and
property. The total GVA losses are about onethird of service sector losses, or NPR 7062.45
million (US$71.7 million).
Transport disruptions further slow the service sector’s performance. Transport, storage and communication activities are estimated to decrease
by 3.1 percentage points to 5.2 percent due to
The System of National Accounts (SNA) 1993 defines services of owner-occupied dwellings as ‘own household unincorporated enterprises that produce housing services
for their own consumption.’ These are included within the production boundary of the SNA.
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Figure 23.4: Services Subsectoral Growth
12
FY 2014R
10
FY 2015 pre-earthquake
FY 2015 post-earthquake
8
6
4
2
Other community, social and
personal service activities
Health and social work
Education
Public administration and
defence
Real estate, renting and
business activities
Financial Intermediation
Transport , storage and
communications
Hotels and restaurants
Wholesale and retail trade
0
Source: CBS
Figure 23.5: Estimated Gross Value Added Loss in Services Sector (US$ million)
Financian intermediation
4.7
Other community, social and
personal service activities
5.7
Public Administration
and defence
0.0
Hotel and restaurants
10.4
Health and social work
-0.7
Education
19.1
Construction
31.9
Wholesale and
retail trade
58.8
Real estate, renting and
business activities
71.7
Transport, storage and
communications
60.9
Source: CBS
299
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
slowdown in land and air transport. Mechanized
as well as non-mechanized transport activities
slowed down drastically due to the exodus of
drivers and passengers from the main demand
centres, including Kathmandu Valley. The frequency of air transport, both domestic and foreign, is also reduced. The estimated GVA losses
are NPR5998.65 million (US$60.9 million).
The hotel and restaurant subsector is expected
to rebound partially by the next tourist season.
Hotel and restaurant business growth is projected to decline by 2.8 percentage points to 4 percent following the earthquakes as tourist arrivals
have drastically reduced, domestic tourism has
receded, and some hotels and restaurants have
reported partial or full shut down of operations
due to physical damage. With relief personnel
temporarily filling empty hotel rooms, the impact on the subsector has somewhat lessened.96
However, given that the tourism sector has sustained significant physical damages in the affected districts, it is expected to suffer major economic losses over the next two to three years. It
is also important to note that the overall impact
of the earthquakes on the tourism sector goes
beyond the 14 affected districts and has affected
well-known tourism destinations like Chitwan
and Pokhara. Other nations which have experienced a similar disaster, have generally taken
several years to recover fully with regards to
tourist arrivals. As a result, in the medium term,
the tourism sector is expected to suffer losses of
about NPR59100 million (US$600 million).
Losses in the education subsector are more psychological than financial, but damages are substantial. Most children are out of school and
with the monsoon, the disruption to schooling
and its impact on development is expected to
be far-reaching. Disruptions to educational
services provided by government, corporations
and non-profit institutions, and physical damage to their assets will likely lower education
subsector growth by 1.2 percentage points to 5
percent in FY2015. The estimated GVA losses
are NPR1881.35 million (US$19.1 million).97
However, the total damages and losses beyond
FY2015 in the education subsector is estimated
to be more than NPR30830.5 million (US$313
million). As the public sector accounts for 80
percent of these damages and losses, it will certainly put significant fiscal pressure on the government in the medium term.
Financial intermediation loss is lower than
expected for now, though its full impact will
unfold over time.The disruptions to banking
and insurance transactions in the affected districts will likely lower financial intermediation
growth by 2.3 percentage points to 1.4 percent
in FY2015.98 The operational disturbances in
financial infrastructure were short-lived in the
earthquake-affected areas. However, the portfolios of micro-finance institutions (MFIs) and
cooperatives are likely to be most severely impacted as low income people in rural areas have
lost lives and livelihoods. Many borrowers are
likely to face a Catch-22 situation: they have
lost livelihoods and their income stream has
been disrupted; they require loans to rebuild
livelihoods; but their lack of stable source of income may be grounds for credit providers not
to extend loans. Additionally, the damages and
economic disruption could deteriorate the asset quality of the loan portfolios of banks and
financial institutions (BFIs) through: (i) damage or disruption to otherwise viable businesses,
especially medium, small and micro enterprises
(MSMEs), which may need to restructure their
debts and will need additional finance to repair
damages; (ii) damage to uninsured real estate
collateral (under-insurance is widespread and
weak administration is leading to claims being
denied); and (iii) contagion to BFIs from losses
in the microfinance sector. Therefore, the likely
losses are expected to be much higher, in the
range of NPR25610 million (US$260 million),
in the medium term.
Per capita Income
Per capita GDP decreased by NPR2319
(US$23) compared to the no-earthquake scenario (in which case per capita income would
have been NPR77311 (US$785)). Accordingly,
real per capita income increased by 3.6 percent.99
The estimated GVA loss is US$10.4 million for the final quarter of FY2015.
This also factors in the agreement reached between the government and private schools to charge only half a month’s fee.
98
The estimated GVA losses are US$4.7 million.
99
Growth rate of real per capita income in local currency unit
96
97
300
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Figure 23.6: Nominal per capita GDP (US$)
900
800
714
700
785
762
702
708
717
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014R
610
600
491
500
497
410
400
300
200
100
0
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2015
post- EQ
FY2015
pre- EQ
Source: CBS
Figure 23.7: Contributions to Inflation (Percentage points)
12
10
9.6
9.9
9.6
9.1
8.3
8
6
4
2
0
FY2010
FY2011
Food and beverage
FY2012
Non-food and services
FY2013
FY2014
Nepal-CPI
Source: NRB
Inflation
Pre-earthquake
Inflation was slowing down significantly in
FY2015 after several years of persistent high
inflation. Overall inflation (year-on-year average) declined to 9.1 percent in FY2014 from
9.9 percent the year before, driven mostly by
food prices, which rose by 11.6 percent, and
the evolution of prices in India. In the first nine
months of FY2015 (pre-earthquake), average inflation had slowed to 7.2 percent (year-on-year).
The price moderation, despite being at elevated
levels, is mainly due to substantially lower nonfood inflation aided by lower fuel prices, but a
modest increase in food prices.
Post-earthquake
Inflation is on the rise after the earthquakes as a
result of supply-side constraints and anti-competitive behaviour. Food inflation is expected to
be in double digits. Low agricultural harvest as
well as losses caused by the earthquakes, supply
disruptions and anti-competitive practices in
301
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
Figure 23.8: Current Account Balance (share of GDP)
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
-2.00
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Estimates
-4.00
Current Account
BOP
the market will exert added pressures on overall
inflation, resulting in inflation hovering around
7.5 percent in FY2015 (post-earthquake).
In the medium term as well, these factors along
with an expansionary budget, wage pressures
due to shortage of workers, a temporary burst
of aggregate demand arising from cash transfers
and reconstruction activities, and supply-side
bottlenecks will likely keep inflation at elevated
levels. Food inflation is likely be in the doubledigits due to upward price pressures on legumes,
cereal grains, fruits and milk products, among
others. Non-food inflation will also see upward
price pressures, especially those coming from
housing and utilities, construction materials,
furnishings and household equipment.
External Sector
Pre-earthquake
Despite a large and growing trade imbalance, the
current account (CA) remained in surplus and
significant foreign exchange reserves had accumulated, owing predominantly to robust growth of
remittances.In FY2014, the balance of payments
(BOP) surplus reached NPR128.05 billion
(US$1.3 billion) (6.6 percent of GDP), growing
at 65.1 percent from FY2013, while the CA was
positive by NPR 90127.5 million (US$915 million) (4.7 percent of GDP). This healthy position
was overwhelmingly due to remittance growth.
Total transfers (including remittances) reached
a record NPR630.4 billion (US$6.4 billion)
The scope and pace of rehabilitation and reconstruction will also influence the rate of out-migration.
100
302
(equivalent to 32.7 percent of GDP) and almost
on a par with the trade deficit of NPR600.85 billion (US$6.1 billion) (equivalent to 30.9 percent
of GDP). As a result, gross official reserves grew
by 23.6 percent in FY2014 to reach NPT679.65
billion (US$6.9 billion), enough to cover some
8.2 months of imports of goods and services.
For FY2015, before the earthquakes, Nepal
was expected to maintain a sizeable CA surplus
(but reduced, compared to FY2014) due to
lower remittance growth (through official channels). This was partially compensated by lower
world prices for oil (the largest import item).
This was reflected in the first nine month of
FY2015 when CA balance was NPR48659 million (US$494 million), significantly lower than
FY2014 when the CA balance was NPR107.8
billion (US$1.1 billion) during the same period.
Post-earthquake
Current account surplus will decrease, but is expected to remain positive in the short term. As
a result of the earthquakes, export-based firms
have either halted production or are partially operational. Furthermore, domestic consumption
of exportable construction items has increased
(partly also due to temporary export restriction
policy imposed after the earthquakes). The net
impact will likely be lower export growth (even
negative growth if supply disruptions further intensify) in FY2015. Meanwhile, import growth
will likely accelerate as demand for machinery
parts, agricultural goods, medicines and construction materials picks up. Consequently, the
trade deficit is likely to widen further. However,
increased inflow of remittances and grants are expected to continue in FY2015. As a result, CA
surplus will decrease in FY2015 but is expected
to remain positive at about NPR46886 million
(US$476 million) and a BOP surplus of about
NPR70230.5 million (US$713 million). Foreign
exchange reserves will likely continue to grow and
be enough to cover over seven months of imports.
In the medium term, both CA and BOP are expected to decline significantly compared to previous years. There will likely be a net increase in
the number of overseas migrant workers,100 resulting in increased inflow of remittances. Also,
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
foreign aid is expected to continue to increase
for reconstruction activities. Nevertheless, there
also exists a possibility of CA balance being negative if the rate of increase of trade deficit is high
on account of increased import of construction
materials and if the rate of increase of net transfers is low in the medium term. Should such a
situation arise, it is expected to be manageable.
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
households has been now been parked in the
commercial banks for safety reasons. Domestic
credit is expected to slow down significantly
in the short term. Without clarity on the balance sheets of banks and increased risk after the
earthquakes, banks will be reluctant to lend in
the short term.
Fiscal
Monetary
Pre-earthquake
Monetary policy continued to be expansionary
to support economic activity and financial sector
stability. Broad money (M2) supply increased by
19.1 percent in FY2014 (up from 16.4 percent
in FY2013), resulting in very low interest rates.
The Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) maintained a
relatively loose monetary policy and minimal
sterilization of remittance inflows to stimulate
private sector lending while also allowing banks
to rebuild balance sheet strength by keeping interest rates low. In the nine months of FY2015
(before the earthquakes), money supply (M2)
growth stood at 16.1 percent (year-on-year), reflecting a decline in growth of net foreign assets
(NFA) on the back of weaker remittances and
lower foreign grants receipts.
In the last few years, high deposit growth coupled with slower credit off-take kept the cost of
borrowing low, which was starting to change
from FY2015. The weighted average Treasurybill (T-bill) (91 days) and interbank rates for
FY2014 were 0.13 percent and 0.22 percent
respectively. Likewise, the average base rate of
commercial banks stood at 8.36 percent. This
trend was partly reversed in the first nine months
of FY2015 (before the earthquakes), with credit
to the private sector from BFIs increasing by
19.8 percent in mid-April 2015. This outpaced
deposits (deposits at BFIs expanded by 16.5 percent), resulting in a significant decrease of excess
liquidity in the system.
Post-earthquake
After the earthquakes, broad money is expected
to increase by 16 percent in FY2015 (year-onyear). The deposit rate is expected to increase
significantly, partly also because money in
101
Pre-earthquake
While domestic revenue mobilization has continued to perform exceptionally well over the years,
structural bottlenecks to spending, particularly
capital budget, have been a problem.Though public spending picked up significantly in FY2014, it
remained low (particularly investment) compared
to both needs and the space afforded by healthy
fiscal balances. Nepal registered a budget surplus
in FY2013 (0.7 percent of GDP) and marginal
deficit in FY2014 (-0.1 percent of GDP), reflecting, among other things, continued robust
revenue growth but a persistent shortcoming in
capital budget execution. A similar trend was observed in FY2015 prior to the earthquakes – the
budget was under-executed. Domestic revenue
mobilization on the other hand has continued to
perform well. The government managed to meet
the ambitious targets it had set for itself, with total revenue growth of 19.8 percent in FY2014 and
21.1 percent in FY2013. Total revenue as a share
of GDP reached 18.4 percent in FY2014 (from
14.7 percent four years ago). Before the disaster,
domestic revenue mobilization in FY2015 (despite
the trimester targets missed) was expected to reach
NPR416.66 billion (US$4.23 billion),101 with
overall revenue growth reaching 19.3 percent.
Post-earthquake
The combination of a decline in tax revenues and
an increase in spending will put pressure on the
fiscal balance in the medium term. Public revenues have taken a direct hit in the aftermath
of the disaster. It is now increasingly likely that
the target for revenue collection of NPR416.66
billion (US$4.23 billion) in the current fiscal
year will not be met. With only NPR384.15
billion (US$3.90 billion) expected to be raised
by the end of FY2015, there will be a shortfall
of about 8 percent (approximately NPR29550
Netting out NPR 18.5 billion of cash balance of FY2014
303
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
million (US$300 million)). Of the five major
sources, customs and deemed ‘non-tax’ revenues
have seen the largest drop in collections after the
earthquakes. This is because of, among other factors, reduced imports, including luxurious items
such as motorized vehicles, slowdown in tourism
and banking, and customs exemptions on relief
materials. This shortfall is expected to be met by
external and domestic borrowing. However, this
will potentially not yet put added pressure on fiscal balance in FY2015 because the disruptions
to normal functioning of government services
have led to expenditure shortfall as well. Only
NPR492.5 billion (US$5 billion) out of the expenditure target of NPR608.73 billion (US$6.18
billion) is expected to be spent by the end of
FY2015.102 The balance will be carried forward
to the next fiscal year for increased spending.
Due to the huge damages and losses inflicted by the
earthquakes,103 fiscal pressure will start to increase
from FY2016. A lower base for domestic revenue is
set for FY2016 (NPR472.8 billion (US$4.80 billion)) against a projection of NPR504.32 billion
(US$5.12 billion) prior to the earthquakes. Preliminary estimates of the immediate needs recovery
is NPR659.95 billion (US$6.7 billion), which will
put pressure to increase unanticipated post-disaster
spending. For example, housing subsidy alone is
expected to increase government spending by anywhere between NPR98.5 to 147.75 billion(US$1
to 1.5 billion). As a result, FY2016 budget is estimated to reach as high as NPR827.4 billion
(US$8.40 billion). To fill the resource gap, the
government may have to resort to higher domestic
borrowing. To ease the fiscal balance pressure, the
government is requesting development partners to
mobilize increased support, in addition to pledges
already received. Fortunately, external borrowing
is not likely to put Nepal at risk of debt distress
given the already low levels of external debt, which
creates enough fiscal space for financing recovery
efforts. Revenue mobilization could also be bolstered by further efficiency-enhancing administrative reforms, strict monitoring of tax evasion and
by bringing more people inside the tax bracket.
102
103
304
This will be 80 percent of planned outlay
Preliminary estimates put total damages and losses at about US$7 billon
Ways Forward
The foregoing analysis suggests an economy that
is struggling with the challenge of triggering
sustained growth, yet was supported by a reasonably comfortable fiscal space and BOP – the
former a result of low expenditures and the latter a windfall from inward remittances. With
the need for rehabilitation and reconstruction,
the challenge ahead is to garner resources from
within and abroad in a manner that does not
strain macro-prudential norms and discipline in
internal and external borrowing. Going forward,
there are five issues deserving policy attention.
First, economic sectors that have borne the brunt
of income losses need a package of support aimed
at early recovery. From tourism and agriculture
to the financial sector, industry and commerce,
post-disaster needs assessments suggest that losses
are expected to persist well into next year. The
government stands ready to respond with policy
instruments that have not been frequently tried
earlier, such as bailout funds to prevent contagion
in the financial sector and business recovery centres to jump-start small enterprises.
Second, with a search for new revenue instruments and firmer tax effort, fiscal space can be
widened. Options include: (i) widening the tax
base without increasing rates, but imposing a
temporary reconstruction levy, (ii) encouraging
voluntary compliance, (iii) reducing tax exemptions, (iv) enforcing electronic billing, (v) reforming customs valuation, (vi) prioritizing high net
worth individuals, and (vii) building capacity to
bring emerging areas such as e-commerce and
capital gains into the tax net. However, it was the
quality, pace and pattern of expenditure that was
a bigger concern over the past decade, with over
10 percent of annual budget being unspent on
average. There is a growing tendency to augment
unproductive recurrent expenditures in lieu of
capital investments with larger payoffs, especially
in physical infrastructure. To ramp up spending
aimed at post-earthquake reconstruction, Nepal
now needs a binding institutional commitment
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
to instill confidence in a system built around efficiency, transparency and accountability. An Extra-ordinary Mechanism (EOM) that is informed
by international best practice, but is grounded in
past Nepali successes, will be necessary. Successes
include the rebuilding after the 1988 earthquake,
the reconstruction of Myanglung Bazaar in Tehrathum after the fire of 2002, and the integration of Maoist combatants after the 2006 peace
process. Under the oversight of elected representatives in government and parliament, as well as
development partners and civil society, an EOM
staffed by professionals who can exercise legal
authority, from procurement to land acquisition,
embedded in several acts will be required to execute reconstruction.
Third, there are macroeconomic vulnerabilities
that will need to be monitored closely. With the
surge in import of construction materials, and
reconstruction attracting resources away from
the tradable (export) sector, the trade deficit will
widen further. If the flow of remittances is tepid
as a result of unforeseen shocks, BOP could spiral
out of control. Similarly, controlling inflation will
require vigilance on the part of regulatory institutions. Calls to exempt reconstruction-related
imports from customs and value-added taxes at
the border could also dampen revenue collection.
Fourth, the management of public expectations with regard to the scale and intensity of
‘new’ construction has to be deft. The discourse
in the country already conflates recovery needs
with ambitious projects of national significance
not directly related to the earthquakes. While a
national campaign of new building and renewal
can use post-earthquake recovery as a point of
departure, it would be useful not to mix the two
at early stages of recovery to encourage prioritization and economic use of scarce resources.
Fifth, the recently secured consensus among
the largest political parties to promulgate a new
constitution and to hold elections for local government as early as possible adds optimism to
efforts aimed at restoring the trajectory of higher
economic growth. A push towards economic reforms has to continue so that the investment
climate is friendlier. Nepal also needs to tap
unconventional assets at its disposal, such as
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
the growing financial and technical clout of the
diaspora, the spirit of volunteerism of its youth
and new sources of philanthropy.
Assessment Methodology
This chapter was led by the NPC on and was
written based on the inputs and data provided
by the CBS, NRB and MoF from the Government side. On the Development partners side,
it was led by the WB and ADB and the inputs
were provided by the UNDP, DFID and EU.
Loss and damage figures from the sector assessment was used for the macro-analysis.
References
Sarah Bradshaw and Maureen Fordham 2013:
Women, Girls and Disasters; A review for
DFID
National Commission 2013: Nepal Thirteenth
Periodic Plan 2013
UNDP 2014: Human Development Report
International Centre for Research on Women
2015: Child Marriage Facts and Figures:
http://www.icrw.org/child-marriage-factsand-figures
FAO 2015: Field assessment Report on
22/05/2015.
Dalit Civil Society Organizations’ Coalition
for UPR, Nepal And International Dalit
Solidarity Network (IDSN) 2015: Human
Rights Situation of the Dalits Community
NMIP 2014; WASH Status Report 2014
Nepal Demographic and Health Survey
2011
UNFPA, UN Women and UK Aid 2013:Tracking Cases for Gender-Based Violence in Nepal: Individual, institutional, legal and policy
analyses
Chiai Uraguchi 2010: Current Trends of Human Trafficking in Nepal
Reuter News 2015: http://www.reuters.com/
article/2015/05/26/us-quake-nepal-trafficking-idUSKBN0OB12Z20150526
UNICEF 2015: State of World Children:
http://www.unicef.org/publications/files/
SOWC_2015_Summary_and_Tables.pdf
Dalit Civil Society Organizations’ Coalition
for UPR, Nepal And International Dalit
Solidarity Network (IDSN) 2015: Human
Rights Situation of the Dalits Community
305
N e pa l E a rt h q u a k e 2 0 1 5 : P o s t D i s a s t e r N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t
l
V o l . B : s e c to r r e p o rt s
G o v e r n m e n t o f n e pa l
N at i o na l p l ann i n g c o m m i s s i o n
K at h m a n d u
306