Conceptual Plan for Intercepting Sediment in the Lower Los Osos and Warden Valleys, Morro Bay Area, San Luis Obispo County, California Prepared for: Morro Bay National Estuary Program Prepared by: Barry Hecht Daniel Malmon Balance Hydrologics, Inc. January 2003 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................1 1.1 PROJECT BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................1 1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM .................................................................................................................1 1.2.1 Relation to the Chorro Flats Enhancement Project ................................................................................3 1.3 ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT .............................................................................................................4 1.4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS................................................................................................................................5 2. ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING ..........................................................................................................................1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 GEOLOGICAL SETTING AND QUATERNARY HISTORY ...........................................................................1 CLIMATE .....................................................................................................................................................2 SOILS AND LAND USE ................................................................................................................................2 GROUND WATER ........................................................................................................................................2 ANADROMOUS FISHERY ............................................................................................................................3 3. GEOMORPHIC CONTEXT................................................................................................................................5 3.1 SEDIMENTATION IN MORRO BAY ............................................................................................................5 3.2 SEDIMENT SOURCES ..................................................................................................................................5 3.2.1 Critical evaluation of past studies of sediment sources...........................................................................6 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.2.1.1 Soil Conservation Service studies ................................................................................................................... 6 3.2.1.2 Funk River Consultants................................................................................................................................... 6 3.2.1.3 TetraTech modeling ........................................................................................................................................ 7 3.2.1.4 Summary of previous estimates of sediment yield ........................................................................................... 9 ACCELERATED EROSION OVER THE PAST DECADES IN THE LOS OSOS WATERSHED ........................9 DEPOSITION DURING RECENT DECADES ...............................................................................................10 DIRECTIONS FOR SEDIMENT-YIELD ESTIMATION ................................................................................11 4. BASIS FOR DESIGN AND PLANNING..........................................................................................................12 4.1 CONCEPTUAL PLAN FOR PROPOSED FLOODPLAIN RESTORATION.....................................................12 4.2 PHYSICAL BASIS FOR PLANNING ...........................................................................................................14 4.3 RATIONALE FOR MODELING APPROACH ..............................................................................................15 4.4 HYDRAULIC MODELING ..........................................................................................................................18 4.4.1 Modeling approach................................................................................................................................18 4.4.2 Input data for the hydraulic model ........................................................................................................19 4.4.3 Hydraulic model results.........................................................................................................................20 4.4.3.1 Backwater limits from tidewater ................................................................................................................... 21 4.5 SEDIMENTATION CALCULATIONS AND INTERPRETATION..................................................................22 4.5.1 Model assumptions ................................................................................................................................22 4.5.2 Values used in the model .......................................................................................................................23 4.5.3 Results and interpretations of the sedimentation calculations ..............................................................24 5. TOWARD A MANAGEMENT PLAN..............................................................................................................27 5.1 PROGRAM ELEMENTS ..............................................................................................................................27 5.1.1 Cooperator’s preferred alternative .......................................................................................................27 5.1.2 Modified preferred alternative...............................................................................................................27 5.1.3 Possible supplemental future retention..................................................................................................29 5.2 PHASING ....................................................................................................................................................30 5.3 ANTICIPATED EFFECTIVENESS OF INDUCED SEDIMENTATION ..........................................................30 5.4 SEDIMENTATION MEASURES UNDER EXISTING CONDITIONS .............................................................31 5.4.1 Alternatives considered .........................................................................................................................31 5.4.2 Proposed project....................................................................................................................................31 5.4.3 Costs ......................................................................................................................................................32 5.5 SEDIMENTATION ROLE OF THE SITE FOLLOWING ANTICIPATED AVULSION ....................................32 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc i 5.5.1 Problem statement .................................................................................................................................32 5.5.2 Avulsion effects and timing....................................................................................................................33 5.5.3 Preparing for avulsion...........................................................................................................................33 5.6 REQUIRED PERMITS .................................................................................................................................34 6. RECOMMENDED MONITORING..................................................................................................................36 7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................39 8. REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................................................46 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc ii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Summary of previous estimates of sediment yield from Los Osos Creek Table 2. Computed settling velocities for different particle size classes Table 3. Summary of results from HEC-RAS simulation Table 4. Estimated trap efficiency of the proposed floodplain Table 5. Floodplain sedimentation rates for high flow events Table 6 Variable affecting sedimentation in the Warden Creek overbank area under existing and combined flows LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Location of Morro Bay on California Coast Figure 2. Large landslide scar in Los Osos Creek watershed Figure 3. Recent streambank erosion along Los Osos Creek Figure 4. Location map near the confluence of Los Osos Creek and Warden Creeks Figure 5. Cross-sectional topography of the valley floor Figure 6. Stream bed profiles and modeled water surface profile under project conditions Figure 7. Cross sections and modeled flow depths on Eto property, under existing and project conditions APPENDICES A. Observations and recollections of Alan Eto, lower Los Osos and Warden Valleys B. Memorandum of Notes from Los Osos Creek Management Plan 1/17/02 meeting – A preferred alternative is found 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc iii 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Project Background Sedimentation in Morro Bay threatens ecological, aesthetic, and economic resources in one of the most significant estuaries along the central California coast. Studies funded by the State Coastal Conservancy and the Coastal San Luis Resource Conservation District (“RCD”) over the past 15 years have documented the sources and impacts of sediment delivery from the Morro Bay watershed, and prescribed several potential measures for reducing sedimentation in the Bay. Some of these measures have been adopted and implemented within the framework of a Morro Bay Watershed Enhancement Project. Among the proposed measures was to intercept as much sediment as might prove realistic in the lowermost segments of the lower Los Osos Creek and Warden Creek valleys, while concurrently allowing riparian vegetation to re-establish on a valley floor which is partly converted to agricultural uses and is otherwise disrupted by other human uses. In part to provide space for sediment storage in the valley floor, wetland reserve easements were purchased along lower Los Osos Creek in 1995. This report describes pertinent geomorphic and hydrologic background and presents preliminary analyses recommendations relevant to realizing sedimentation in the wetland reserve easements to help fulfill this element of the Morro Bay Watershed Enhancement Project. 1.2 Statement of the Problem Morro Bay is a tidal lagoon located at the mouths of Chorro and Los Osos Creeks, in central coastal California (Figure 1). Sediment is delivered primarily from the two major watersheds discharging into Morro Bay – Chorro Creek (43 square miles) and Los Osos Creek (23 square miles). The Bay is a local center of tectonic subsidence within an area which is generally uplifting rapidly, making it a natural center of sediment deposition. The Chorro and Los Osos watersheds are also underlain by mechanically weak rocks and are subjected to high intensity storm rainfall, factors which contribute to naturally high rates of sediment production. Furthermore, because the coastline is close to the mountain front, there is limited opportunity for sediment storage within low-gradient valley floors. In addition, littoral (tidal and waverelated) and aeolian (wind-related) processes both transport sediment into Morro Bay (Haltiner, 1988). All these factors contribute to natural sedimentation in Morro Bay, even in the absence of human intervention. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 1 Sedimentation in Morro Bay has accelerated during the past 150 years as a result to human use of the land and the practices used in these watersheds. The Morro Bay Watershed Enhancement Project was initiated in order to reduce the rate of sedimentation in Morro Bay. From a geomorphological perspective, there are four possible groups of approaches to this problem: 1. Reduce sediment eroded from hillslopes by using best management practices and erosion-control measures. 2. Reduce sediment entrained directly into the stream from its bed and banks by stabilizing the channels, inhibiting bank retreat and bed incision by various means. 3. Reduce the proportion of sediment transported in the streams which ultimately reaches Morro Bay. Pragmatically, this calls for a change in the present sediment balance on the valley floors towards deposition on beds of the channel or on the valley floor. 4. Remove sediment from Morro Bay by dredging and dispersal to other upland settings. Of these four general strategies, the fourth approach is generally considered to be the most expensive and ecologically destructive. The most beneficial approach to the problem is to retain sediment within the watersheds of Chorro and Los Osos Creeks by employing the first two approaches. While the first approach may provide significant benefits, it is beyond the scope of the present study, although it is (in part) the subject of a concurrent investigation by others with results not yet available. The Coastal Conservancy, RCD, and others have implemented, are implementing, and will continue to implement projects that employ the first two approaches. The focus of this project is to induce sediment storage in Los Osos Creek by restoring the role of the floodplain as a site for storing sediment produced further up in the watershed. The site chosen for floodplain restoration is the area within and adjacent to the Los Osos Creek Wetland Reserve. This reserve includes 112 acres along the lowland valley of Los Osos and Warden Creeks, extending upstream from a lower boundary approximately one-quarter mile upstream of the head of tidewater at San Ysidro Avenue. Additional easements are expected to be 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 2 negotiated as part of the present study. The goal of inducing floodplain sedimentation must be accomplished within constraints imosed by economic, ecological, and regulatory considerations, as well as topographic constraints, which are further elaborated below. 1.2.1 Relation to the Chorro Flats Enhancement Project The Chorro Flats Enhancement Project (Central San Luis Resource Conservation District, 2000) restored 83 acres of floodplain along lower Chorro Creek. The primary purpose of the project was to reduce sediment loads entering Morro Bay by restoring the function of a portion of the floodplain to trap sediment as a result of deposition during overbank flows. This was accomplished by removing levees along the project site and allowing flows to spread across the floodplain. Compared with the channelized flow, the shallower flow depth over the floodplain (due to wider flows) and greater flow resistance (as a result of floodplain vegetation) promoted floodplain sedimentation. Deposition at Chorro Flats reduced the impact of several watershed perturbations on sedimentation in Morro Bay. Since the acquisition of the Chorro Flats site in 1991, sediment production rates in the Chorro Creek watershed temporarily increased as a result of: (1) the 1994 Highway 41 Fire and related erosion; (2) abnormally large floods during the post-fire winter of 1994-95; and (3) floods during the El Nino winter of 1997-98. Between 1992 and 2000, an estimated 188,000 cubic yards of sediment were deposited on the site (CSLRCD, 2000). Developing a plan for depositing sediment within the valley of Los Osos and Warden Creeks was recommended in the Morro Bay Watershed Enhancement Plan (SCS, 1989), and the success of the Chorro Flats project has further encouraged the current investigation into the practicality and usefulness of adopting a similar strategy in the lower portion of Los Osos Creek. The George Martines property adjacent to Los Osos Creek, for which wetland easements have already been partially obtained, is being given initial consideration for the purpose of reestablishing sediment storage in the floodplain.1 The proposed project area (Figure 4) is located in the former floodplain, therefore the site is more likely to trap sediment than the valley floor in narrower, steeper, upland reaches. It was the stated intent of the Morro Bay Watershed Enhancement Project staff to draw heavily on the results of the Chorro Flats work. The Los Osos restoration plan was budgeted at less than 10 percent of the planning effort applied to We have learned during the week prior to preparation of the final report that the Coastal Conservancy has not been successful in obtaining further easements, and that the focus of this project will be limited to the Eto and Gota holdings; we have attempted to modify our findings and recommendations accordingly. 1 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 3 Chorro Creek, and with a proportionately shortened schedule. As it turns out, the lower Los Osos/Warden valley is quite different both geomorphologically and with respect to current land uses. Differences between Los Osos Creek and Chorro Creek include: 1.3 Nearly all of the recent sedimentation in the lower Los Osos/Warden valley originates from Los Osos Creek. Los Osos Creek has essentially developed a fan extending across the valley, which is responsible for impounding Warden Lake. As a result, the valley floor is tilted northward, such that any overflows from Los Osos Creek move rapidly toward Warden Creek. Measures to store sediment within Los Osos Creek increase the likelihood of a sudden change in stream course; measures to store sediment overbank on the valley flat channel and floodplain in Los Osos using virtually any natural process increase the gradient toward Warden Creek, and aggravate the ‘tilted valley’ issue. Los Osos Creek is much steeper than Chorro Creek. While Chorro Creek is likely to remain more or less in the same location for the geomorphically-foreseeable future, Los Osos may change course, a factor which we believe must be considered in long-term planning for this corridor. Minimal space for storage of sediment is available upstream in the Los Osos Creek watershed compared with that of Chorro Creek. Parts of the Los Osos Creek watershed are underlain by softer and more erosive lithologic units than those in the Chorro Creek watershed, leading to greater production of sand- and silt-sized sediment. Organization of this Report The hydrologic and environmental setting of the lower Los Osos/Warden valley is described in Section 2. Chapter 3 discusses the information available, and its limitations. Alternatives considered and our efforts to simulate peak flows under varying recurrences and conditions are described in Chapter 4. The plan elements, phasing, and one recommended alternative are discussed in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 outlines a monitoring program which appears needed to guide long-term management of the project, given the unique conditions at the site. Our conclusions and recommendations are summarized in Chapter 7, with the references cited and other sources of information presented in Chapter 8. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 4 The appendices present (a) our notes of observations and recollections of Alan Eto, a thirdgeneration local grower, who is the primary operator and owner of agricultural land in this part of the valley, and (b) output from the model runs. 2 1.4 Acknowledgments In addition to project manager Bill Hoffman, Balance staff wish to express their gratitude to Malcolm McEwen, Coastal San Luis RCD, and Tim Duff of the California Coastal Commission, who were both central to developing and carrying through this innovative project. Malcolm’s role in formulating, implementing, and developing the initial applications for funds for the project were central. Linda Chipping, RCD board member, assisted at several stages, with field measurements, first-hand accounts, crucial information not available to us from other sources, as well as perspective. Landowners Alan Eto and Marla Morrissey provided essential information, guidance, and suggestions at every step in plan formation, and went far beyond the basic exchanges that we often encounter in restoration planning. Marla helped re-shape the plan by showing us sites further upstream where channel-stability and sediment-source issues will prevail for some time. Alan’s accounts of conditions during the past 50 years are reflected in almost every aspect of our description of the project’s setting, and in formulation of the alternatives discussed below. Margie Lundquist (USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service) has helped the enhancement effort through numerous earlier stages and kept us filled with background information. Balance staffers Don Song and Ed Ballman also contributed in this study. Ed Wallace, who is leading Northwest Hydraulics’ assessment of erosion-control and sediment-reduction opportunities, shared ideas regarding the sources and likely near-term delivery of sediment from the upper, montane portion of the watershed (Clark Canyon) and discussed the importance of sediment derived from the massive bank cuts upstream of Los Osos Blvd. To conserve paper and shelf space, the voluminous model runs are not included with most copies of this report, but are available for inspection at the CSLRCD, and Coastal Conservancy offices. 2 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 5 2. ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING 2.1 Geological Setting and Quaternary History Morro Bay is a shallow lagoon located on the central California coast (Figure 1), about 100 miles north of Santa Barbara. Two major drainages discharge water and sediment to Morro Bay – Chorro Creek (43 mi2 drainage area) and Los Osos Creek (23 mi2). The two drainage basins are separated by uplands consisting in part of a string of volcanic stocks and necks, the Oligocene/Miocene Morros formation, which include the landmark Morro Rock. These resistant plugs are the erosional remnants of dacite lavas that intruded rocks of the Mesozoic Franciscan Complex, which underlie most of the Chorro Creek watershed. The Franciscan contains a variety of variably-erodible volcanic, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks, generally more resistant than many of the younger sediments in mountains to the south but substantially more erodible than the volcanic stocks and necks of the Morros formation. Morro Bay is located within a subsiding structural trough extending southeastward through the Los Osos Valley. The Los Osos Valley is fundamentally a tectonic ‘pull-apart basin’ bounded on the south by the Los Osos Fault. South of the Los Osos Valley is the San Luis Range, an actively-rising northwest-trending range underlain by durable Franciscan metasediments and deformed younger and softer sedimentary rocks. Both the steeply-dipping Pismo (Pliocene) and the Monterey formations are blocky siltsones and diatomaceous shales, susceptible to large, deep-seated landslides (c.f., Nitchmann, 1988; see also, Figure 2). Upstream of the mountain front, Los Osos Creek follows a course parallel with the structural axis of the San Luis Range, into which it has eroded Clark Valley. The trough which forms Los Osos Valley and Morro Bay is filled at its coastal edge by a sheet of dune sands up to 300 feet deep, known as the Baywood formation, deposited mainly during the past 5000 years, usually overlying Quaternary alluvial deposits eroded from the adjoining uplands. As it emerges from the San Luis Range, Los Osos Creek cuts into the eastern edge of the dune sheet, which recurrently collapses in sandy slabs up to several dozen feet high into the creek. Much of this material is re-deposited in the lower Los Osos valley, in or near the project site (Hall, 1973). No similar sand input occurs into Warden Creek, which is incised into the alluvial and colluvial sediments of the Los Osos Valley floor, and transports predominantly very fine grained silts and clays. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 1 2.2 Climate Mean annual rainfall in the Los Osos watershed increases from about 16 inches at the mouth to a maximum of nearly 30 inches near the crest of the San Luis Range. Historically, mean annual rainfall has fluctuated from about 40 percent of mean during the driest years to about 250 percent of the long-term mean during the wettest winters. Rainfall during dry years is often not sufficient to generate runoff that is continuous through the winter months; in some of the driest years, little or no runoff occurs. Rainfall can range up to 3.5 inches and up to 8 inches in 24 hours during hard rains at the site and in the heart of the San Luis Range, respectively (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1973). During the wettest years, flows in both Los Osos and Warden Creeks can persist through the summer.. 2.3 Soils and Land Use Soils on the valley floor at the site generally become progressively finer northward toward Warden Creek and northwestward toward Morro Bay. The soils along Warden Creek are derived predominantly from silty clays; a distinct boundary is visible in the aerial photographs approximately 500 to 800 feet south of Warden Creek separating persistently damp and clayey soils from the sandier soils which have much better drainage. Soils adjoining Los Osos Creek are loams or sandy loams derived from sandy overbank deposits. A similar but subtler sand-toclay gradient prevails downstream toward Morro Bay. Sandy soils at the upstream edge of the study area along Los Osos Creek gradually become more clay-rich in the northwestern half of the valley. In general, the wetter and heavier soils support a healthy riparian corridor, except where cleared and/or farmed. Growers prefer the sandy soils, but cultivate some of the heavier clays along Warden Creek and along the lower reaches of both streams. Tile drains are generally required to support cultivation of the finer-grained soils. Ditches are used to help drain most of the fields on the valley floor. 2.4 Ground Water In the Los Osos Valley floor, ground water is occurs primarily in stringers of coarse sand and gravel within the alluvium. The stringers may represent former channel deposits or may be overbank or breakout flood deposits also known as crevasse splays (see discussion of channel avulsion below). The water table is generally within 6 to 8 feet of the ground surface, probably two or three feet lower than probably prevailed before the drainage associated with agricultural production, which moved onto the valley floor during the late 1800s. During wet periods, the water table rises, then falls after several days of no rain (Alan Eto, pers. comm.). 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 2 Ground water is used to irrigate crops within the valley and on the adjoining terraces surrounding Eto Lake. Significant production (> 30 to 50 gallons per minute) is limited to a few areas of sandier aquifer materials, primarily along a line extending along and westward from the Martines/Eto property lines along the valley axis.3 To identify these areas, early owners (including Mr. Eto’s grandfather) drilled test holes along cross-valley transects at 50-foot intervals. Only four of many dozens of test holes on the present-day Eto and Martines parcels were eventually developed as wells. Despite the limited extent of areas with easily-developed yields, water for irrigation is pumped from the valley up to the terraces at the Eto property. The aquifer is pumped daily during the summer to maintain supplies, but cannot be pumped around the clock without drawing water levels down in wells between the southern edge of the Eto lands and Los Osos Blvd. Additional information about the evolving ground-water conditions in this area can be found in Appendix A, a record of Mr. Eto’s recollections regarding water supply, land-use practices, and channel management during the past 50 years. 2.5 Anadromous Fishery Los Osos Creek supports a reliable run of steelhead, a species listed as threatened in this ecologically significant unit, and listed as endangered in the Santa Maria River watershed and points further south, beginning only a few tens of miles away. The site is used for passage by upmigrating adults (most commonly in January and February), and by downmigrating smolts (typically in April and May). The proposed project must be designed and operated in a manner which promotes steelhead passage through the site, both upstream toward the headwaters of Los Osos Creek within the San Luis Range and downstream through Morro Bay to the Pacific Ocean. Several times during the 1990s, floodwaters in Los Osos Creek resulted in 4 to 5 feet of sediment accumulation,filling the creek beyond bankfull depth, and leaving large bars and piles of sandy debris. The combination of obstructions and a sedimented channel likely impeded or prevented salmonid movement up- or down-stream during key life stages. The RCD and landowners have been able to restore a passable channel in the worst-affected reaches during the following summer, but it is likely that much of the year’s age class was lost, either We interpret this sandy trend as being a former course of Los Osos Creek, and possibly the primary location of the natural course of the creek prior to channelization. 3 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 3 due to stranding of adults or (more likely) inability of the downstream-migrating smolts to reach Morro Bay. Steelhead are not reported from Warden Creek. It is not known whether steelhead use Eto Lake as rearing or refuge habitat. California Department of Fish and Game biologist Dave Highland has questioned whether salmonids can gain access through the existing culvert system (Bill Hoffman, pers. comm.), but no seining or other sampling for trout has been conducted; if trout were found in the lake, genetic testing would help establish steelhead linkages, if any. Freshwater lakes and lagoons near the mouths of coastal streams are increasingly appreciated as important nursery grounds, especially during droughts. They may also serve as winter refuge during floods, and may have significant indirect roles. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 4 3. GEOMORPHIC CONTEXT 3.1 Sedimentation in Morro Bay Based on bathymetric analyses of the bay, Haltiner (1988) suggested that sedimentation rates in Morro Bay have increased by an order of magnitude over the past 150 years. While such estimates may not be well constrained, it is clear that accelerated sedimentation associated with human-induced (“anthropogenic”) change threatens the long term viability of Morro Bay as a lagoon and a boat harbor. At least three anthropogenic factors have likely contributed to accelerated sedimentation in Morro Bay: 1. Increased rates of watershed erosion (sheet and rill erosion, gullies, and landslides), as a result of land use and land cover change. 2. Increased rates of stream bank erosion (as documented by Funk River Consultants, 1998, and others), possibly as a result of increased runoff or removal of bankstabilizing vegetation; main-channel and tributary incision with related bank retreat may be largest single source of sediment retained in the lower valley (see Figure 3). 3. A reduction in the volume of sediment which could be temporarily stored in the lower valley, as a result of levees constructed in attempt to reclaim floodplains for agricultural purposes. Much of the portion of the sediment loads of Los Osos Creek which was previously stored in the floodplain now reaches Morro Bay and contributes to sedimentation in the Bay. 3.2 Sediment Sources A quantitative understanding of the sources, amount, and size distribution of sediment produced within the Los Osos and Warden Creek watersheds is critical to designing downstream sediment storage programs and assessing their likely longevity and maintenance requirements. Thus, we have critically reviewed previous studies of sediment sources in the watershed and summarize them in the context of field observations in this section. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 5 3.2.1 Critical evaluation of past studies of sediment sources Several studies aimed at identifying and quantifying sediment production within the Los Osos Creek watershed have been conducted. We summarize each of the main studies below and discuss some of the limitations of each. 3.2.1.1 Soil Conservation Service studies A study commissioned by the Coastal San Luis Resource Conservation district in the late 1980s (SCS, 1989) implemented standard Soil Conservation Service techniques to assess erosion by several sources. They estimated an annual erosion rate in Los Osos Creek watershed of 32,000 tons per year (Table H in that report). The SCS staff assumed that the particle-size distribution of the material eroded was the same as that for the soils in the watershed. Based on arbitrarily assigned ‘sediment delivery ratios’ (80% for fines, 25% for sands, 5% for gravel), they computed that approximately 50% of the eroded sediment reached Morro Bay. Of this total, 60% was estimated to derive from sheet and rill erosion, with streambank erosion contributing an additional 20% and gully erosion less than 1%. Landslides were assumed to be negligible with respect to sediment production. The SCS study estimated that 75 percent of the sediment eroded from the entire Morro Bay watershed derives from sheet and rill erosion, with 12 percent from streambank erosion, and less than one percent from gully erosion. Landslides were assumed to be negligible (see p. 9 of their report). These estimates are not consistent with our field observations in the Los Osos watershed. We observed little evidence for sheet and rill erosion, but we have seen, on our trips into the upper watershed, numerous large landslides and actively advancing gullies. Channel incision and slab failures of the dune sheet where undercut by Los Osos Creek and its tributaries are important sources. Discussions with land owners and members of the local community, as well as our initial visit, have also convinced us that large, deep-seated landslides may contribute significantly to the erosion rate of the study area (c.f., Figure 2). Erosion of roadbeds or gullies generated from roadways or cleared areas also demonstrably contribute sediment to the channels. 3.2.1.2 Funk River Consultants In contrast with the SCS study, Funk River Consultants (1998) produced a report which emphasized the importance of streambank erosion in the Los Osos Creek watershed. That report measured several repeated cross sections and longitudinal profiles along Los Osos Valley and extrapolated measured changes over the length of major creeks and tributaries, to arrive at 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 6 an estimate of the annual streambank erosion rate. They considered the reaches they studied to be more actively eroding than most in the watershed, and estimated a watershed-wide average by assuming that the average bank erosion rate was one quarter of the rates they measured. Still, their estimate of 3,200,000 cubic feet/year equates to more than 150,000 T/yr for streambank erosion alone (assuming a bulk density of 95 lb/ft3), nearly 10 times the estimate in the SCS report. The report by Funk (1998) is based on field data and observations and emphasizes streambank erosion as a clearly important source of sediment. However, this study focused data collection on several reaches known to be rapidly eroding and extrapolated those data to the rest of the watershed. While this point is noted by the authors, the scope of that study was not wide enough to arrive at an accurate estimate of the amount of streambank erosion in the watershed. 3.2.1.3 TetraTech modeling TetraTech (1998b) computed sediment delivery from Los Osos and Chorro Creeks for modeled high magnitude events using a two-component sediment transport model (one for bed material sediment transport and another for washload). Their event-based calculations of sediment transport were based on a rainfall-runoff model which produced hypothetical 2-year, 5-year, 10year, 25-year, 50-year, and 100-year flood hydrographs in the Morro Bay watershed. Their study estimated that an average of 70,000 T/y of sediment are delivered to Morro Bay, with 14 percent (9,600 tons/yr) coming from Los Osos Creek. Of the modeled 9,600 tons reaching Morro Bay from Los Osos Creek, the contribution from the bed material sediment was calculated to be only 188 tons, or about 2 percent.4 The remainder was considered to be fine sediment (presumably silt and clay) derived from surface erosion in the watershed. Calculations of transport rates of fine sediment were based on the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation, calibrated with limited data on sediment transport solely at two gaged subbasins in the Chorro watershed. Coarse sediment transport rates were based on several sediment transport models (one for bed load, one for bed forms, and one for bed material suspended load) applied over modeled hydrographs. This strategy allowed them to derive estimates for a range of flows. However, it should be noted that sediment transport formulae of the type used in that study are frequently an order of magnitude different from instantaneous sediment transport rates (Gomez and Church, 1989) compare measured and modeled sediment transport 4 By contrast, the RCD estimates that 70,000 tons of sediment were deposited at the site during the winter of 1997-1998, much of it sand-sized, implying that much higher volumes of sediment were transported in Los Osos Creek alone. (www. Coastalrcd.org/LOwetland.html) 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 7 rates for several such models, including two of the equations used in the TetraTech study). The coarse-sediment transport rates were not calibrated, nor were they compared with nearby watersheds with long-term or directly-measured data, as is the normal practice for the purposes of this report. No distinction was made between the Chorro and Los Osos watersheds despite the very different conditions. Additional uncertainties are introduced by integrating these formulae over hydrographs, which themselves are only modeled flows. Higher rates of transport following fires, major storms, landslides, or droughts – all factors known to sharply elevate sediment yields – were not considered. According to their study less than 30 tons of total sediment would be delivered from Los Osos Creek during the ‘2-year event’, while nearly 130,000 tons would be delivered during a ‘100year flood’. Thus, their computed ‘average’ sediment yield of nearly 10,000 tons/yr from Los Osos Creek implies that, according to their calculations, practically all the ‘average’ sediment yield is delivered during extreme events with return periods of more than 10 years; relatively negligible quantities of sediment would be transported during most years. The latter finding, in particular, does not accord with the accounts of knowledgeable observers of Los Osos Creek or of our observations of changes in the bars over the period of study. Nonetheless, the TetraTech report did not account for factors present in Los Osos Creek that are likely to increase sediment yield, including: (a) the channel of Los Osos Creek is actively incising, (b) large, unsustainable volumes of sediment are entering the channel in the middle reaches of Los Osos Creek upstream of Los Osos Valley Boulevard and (c) similar channels throughout the region are known to have sediment rating curves (or sediment production rates at a given flow) which differ by over an order of magnitude depending upon the severity of a given storm or the proportion of the watershed recently burned (see Knudsen and others, 1992, for a summary of the regional literature on this issue). The nature of the TetraTech (1998b) calculations is described in further detail later in this report, where they are used to a limited degree only because they lend themselves to the management questions raised, because we were asked to use them, and in the absence of credible data are the only choice available. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 8 3.2.1.4 Summary of previous estimates of sediment yield The studies cited above have arrived at widely varying estimates of sediment yields in the Los Osos Creek watershed, from 9,800 to more than 150,000 tons/year (Table 1). Note that the highest estimate only includes contributions from streambank erosion; the actual range of estimates might be much larger if that study considered all the sediment sources in the watershed . Significantly, the available studies do not agree on what processes provide the most important sources of sediment. We note as well that none of these studies estimated the magnitude of the uncertainties related to the estimates. While it should be remembered that all authors note the difficulty of estimating sediment yields, the sponsoring agencies for this study are left without a reliable estimate for sediment yields under both chronic (or ‘normal’) or episodic watershed conditions, the distinction being an essential starting point for managing sediment – and riparian vegetation -- in central and southern California streams (c.f., Hecht, 1993; Capelli and Keller, 1992). It is presently not feasible to meaningfully express the volume of likely storage on the floodplain as so many years of sediment load, given the existing data. Therefore, we emphasize that the values summarized in Table 1 should only be taken as general guidelines of the long-term average erosion rates in Los Osos Creek, with uncertainties on the order of at least several hundred percent, and those numbers should not be taken as realistic expected values of the amount of sediment yield to expect from the watershed in any year or set of years. 3.3 Accelerated erosion over the past decades in the Los Osos watershed In addition to accelerated erosion over the past 150 years, additional sources of sediment have contributed to increased sediment production from the Los Osos Creek watershed in the past decade. Several recent sources are noted which may be contributing to accelerated erosion in the Los Osos Creek watershed which have not been considered in the above reports. These include: 1. A single recent landslide in the upper portion Los Osos watershed which has added to the sediment supply since 1995 (Figure 2) 2. Recent bank retreat on the order of tens of yards in the lower portion of Los Osos Creek (Figure 3); this -- and the associated incision -- were considered in the report by Funk 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 9 River Consultants (1998) but the magnitude of these contributions were not compared with other sediment sources in the watershed 3. Streambank erosion where Los Osos Creek undercuts dune deposits along the southern valley wall downstream of its western-most bend. 4. Incision of larger tributaries, a process which appears likely to continue. 3.4 Deposition during recent decades It appears that significant deposition has taken place on the Los Osos Creek valley floor in recent decades. We believe that as much as 4 to 8 feet of deposition may possibly be recorded on the valley floor at a location southeast of cross section 1 (see Figure 4), based on comparing the elevations on the 1897 USGS topographic quadrangle with those on the photogrammetric base prepared for this project.5 Such deposition rates are two to three orders of magnitude greater than those reported for other valley floors in coastal California, but are credible if the very high rates of bank retreat and incision a short distance upstream are considered (see Figure 3; also, Funk River Consultants, 1998). This comparison is made upstream of the limit of the project area, and is based on the lowest contour shown on 1897 map. Hence, it is not possible to develop a similar estimate of aggradation over a similar period within the area proposed for easements as part of the present project. We have identified this difference as a potentially-important element in developing a plan for control of sediment sources in the two-mile reach upstream, should the cooperating agencies wish to purse this urgent repair. Relative to the study area, one of the implications of aggradation further upstream is that the valley gradient may be steepening, even over periods as short as several decades, since indications are that elevations along Warden Creek near Warden Lake may not have changed much during the past century. The present land surface is a maximum of about 4 feet higher than shown on the older topographic quadrangle. Additionally, the current base is referenced to mean sea level (as are present-day topographic quadrangles), but we believe that the early map uses mean lower-low tide as its datum, which is typically about 3.8 feet lower than mean sea level, meaning that a higher elevation would be shown for a given point. Because the difference between the two maps is greatest on the valley floor and occurs at a point on the natural levee where maximum deposition would be expected, it may well be a valid and significant record of deposition, pending further analysis. 5 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 10 3.5 Directions for sediment-yield estimation Wide uncertainty over the volume, processes, and sizes of material in transport affects the present study in many ways. Two of the most important are (a) without a meaningful estimate of sediment yield, expectations regarding precision in other aspects of the analysis must necessarily be reduced, and (b) it is difficult to estimate the ecological and cost effectiveness of any measure to promote sediment retention. Additionally, much of Balance Hydrologics’ assignment involves developing a sediment-management plan for one segment of the lower watershed without reliable – or even useful – estimates of sediment loads. If the sponsoring agencies wish to understand the sediment yields of Los Osos and Warden Creek beyond an order-of-magnitude estimate, a meaningful estimate specific to current field conditions in the overall Los Osos watershed is needed, likely requiring a basic 2- or 3-year sediment monitoring program measuring bedload and suspended-sediment transport rates and conducted in a manner similar to those used in other streams in the region (c.f., Knudsen and others, 1992, for a partial listing of such studies in other watersheds within the region) or a field-validated rapid sediment budget of the type described in Reid and Dunne, 1996.6 6 See Knudsen and other, 1992, for a partial listing of similar field studies within the region; the Reid and Dunne approach can perhaps best be read as an extension of the 1989 SCS study (which may be the most valuable of the existing estimates, overall) to within-streambank processes. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 11 4. BASIS FOR DESIGN AND PLANNING 4.1 Conceptual Plan for Proposed Floodplain Restoration The purpose of the proposed floodplain restoration is to induce sediment deposition on a portion of the Los Osos Valley floor to reduce sedimentation in Morro Bay. The area shown in Figure 4 was chosen by the cooperating agencies as a site deemed economically and potentially physically feasible to accomplish this goal. Because reducing the upstream input of sediment to this reach – although crucial to the Morro Bay plan’s success -- is beyond the scope of this project, we conceived the basic technical problem is to provide the technical agencies with tools to raise the proportion of sediment entering the reach which deposits on the floodplain. The proportion of sediment influx which is trapped in7 the floodplain depends on two variables which can potentially be manipulated: (1) the proportion of the sediment entering the reach which is decanted over the banks and into the floodplain; and (2) the proportion of that sediment which deposits in the floodplain, rather than reentering the channel and flowing downstream (the ‘trap efficiency of the floodplain’). Concurrently, we also sought to establish that increases in channel roughness were kept small, such that the project would not unduly raise inundation levels during storm events. The plan, discussed further in Section 5 and Appendix B, calls for setback levees along both Los Osos Creek and Warden Creek to the existing farm roads, and allow willows to establish in the intervening floodplain (see Figure 4). As noted above and also below, only Los Osos Creek is expected to transport significant amounts of coarser sediment, as Warden Lake is expected to intercept virtually all fine to medium sand and coarser material entering the lower Los Osos Valley from Warden Creek. While our analysis also pertains in many respects to the Warden Creek corridor, the focus is upon Los Osos Creek. The specific restoration plan is subject to constraints imposed by agricultural land value and fish habitat. As a result of geographical and economic constraints, the range of options which can be explored is relatively limited. At a time when all properties in the lower Los Osos Valley were thought to be part of the project, the cooperating agencies asked that we assess a proposed levee setback as a possible scenario, as shown in Figure 4, with emphasis on the reach from 7 It is evident from historical analysis, field trenching of deposits from the 1998 storms, and from Alan Eto’s recollections that sand deposited on the floodplain is rapidly incorporated into the floodplain, often during the same overbank flooding event; hence, we use the preposition ‘in’ rather than ‘on’ in subsequent discussions. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 12 cross-sections 4 to 6 on the Eto property. The area between the existing channel and the setback levee would be allowed to establish as riparian vegetation. Growth of the willows and other woody vegetation will increase hydraulic roughness and enhance sediment deposition (discussed below) while converting some presently-cultivated land to riparian habitat. This option provides approximately 11 acres for sediment storage north of Los Osos Creek.8 Assuming that sediment could potentially accumulate to a depth of 2 to5 feet (an arbitrary value, and a planning maximum), theoretical maximum deposition of about 35,000 to 88,000 cubic yards might be provided, assuming flood flows can be contained (see below), or approximately 30,000-70,000 tons of sediment, assuming a sediment bulk density of about 60 to 65 lbs/ft3 (1 metric ton/m3). For reasons discussed in Chapter 4 below, we doubt that more than one third of this volume can be used without creating an appreciable risk of avulsion or loss of agricultural land, or about 10,000 to 25,000 tons. By comparison, the TetraTech modeling predicts a total sediment yield during the 100-year event of about 130,000 tons (a value which believe to be reasonable, albeit low) and an ‘average’ sediment yield of 10,000 tons per year (which consider to be a sharp underestimate). For the purposes of this analysis, it might usefully be stated that the sedimentation potential is roughly equivalent to from less than one year up to several years of sediment transport in Los Osos Creek. We do not expect that this amount of sediment will be deposited there over any known time period – this only provides an upper limit on the amount of sediment which could FIT in the space. The rate at which sediment will actually accumulate will depend on how much sediment is supplied to the reach, and on the trap efficiency for this sediment in the floodplain. Calculations and discussions about realistic expectations of the sedimentation rate are discussed later in this chapter. 8 Questions regarding sedimentation into Eto Lake and onto the area separating the lake from the channel are considered in Chapter 5. Floodplain-level area south of Los Osos Creek is quite limited. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 13 Along Warden Creek, a setback levee – while not expected to retain as much sediment – will allow a riparian corridor to develop in an area slowly accumulating fine silt and clay. No levees are truly required along Warden Creek, because it already flows at the lowest point in the valley floor. Levees would, however, demarcate the riparian and agricultural areas, and may serve to slightly reduce flooding if their outboard sides are designed to drain to the channel.9 Our recommendations for the Warden Creek corridor on the project site are to set back the existing minimal levees (where present) to the farm road paralleling Warden Creek along its southern bank, and allow riparian scrub and willows to establish in the intervening area. Portions of the southern bank, especially in the monitoring-well area near cross-section 11 already support low-growing riparian shrubs and vines outboard of a line of willows along the stream. 4.2 Physical Basis for Planning The amount of sediment which enters the floodplain at the site increases with decreasing channel conveyance capacity; in order to maximize this quantity one would reduce the size of the channel: a narrower, shallower channel would increase the proportion of the flow and sediment which enters the floodplain. However, a channel must be maintained of a sufficient size to provide for passage of anadramous fish through the reach. In the following calculations we have assumed that the current channel width and depth remain the same (below the inferred base of the levee). As this is a conceptual plan rather than a final design, the option of further altering channel dimensions is left open for future consideration. In the plan considered in this report, the amount of overbank discharge of sediment is increased by setting back the levee along the Eto property from the channel edge to the back edge of the floodplain. The floodplain restoration will also attempt to increase proportion of overbank sediment which deposits in the floodplain. A parcel of water entering the floodplain and carrying sediment will travel a certain distance before re-entering the channel. As the parcel travels over the floodplain, particles in the water column settle downward at a rate which varies inversely with the particle size. Larger, heavier particles such as sand settle at rates approaching one-half foot While TetraTech (1998b) calculated that sediment yields from Warden Creek might be similar to those in Los Osos Creek above the confluence, we believe sediment yields entering the site from Warden Creek will be significantly lower because Warden Lake is likely to trap much of the sediment before reaching the project reach. Each particle of sand or silt entering the site from Warden Creek has to pass through Warden Lake, a reach of quiet water more than one-half mile long through which Warden Creek has less sediment-transport capacity than through the proposed sediment storage site. 9 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 14 per second, while silt and clay particles settle at rates less than one foot per hour (Table 2). The trap efficiency therefore depends on the settling velocity, the water depth, and the amount of time the sediment-laden water column spends over the floodplain. If sediment is well-mixed in the water column when it enters the floodplain, then a simple conceptual model of floodplain deposition can be expressed as: etr (i ) = ω i l ob ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎟ ⎜ u ob ⎜⎝ d ob ⎟⎠ (1) where etr is the floodplain trap efficiency of particle size class i (the proportion of sediment entering the floodplain which deposits), ωi is the settling velocity of particle size class i, uob is the downstream water velocity on the floodplain, lob is the distance a parcel of water travels over the floodplain, and dob is the flow depth on the floodplain. Equation 1 expresses the trap efficiency as the ratio of particle fall distance (as the water parcel crosses the floodplain) to the overbank flow depth. In other words, equation 1 states that if a particle in the flow can settle half the distance from the water surface to the floodplain, then 50% of the sediment in the water column should settle out before the parcel of water re-enters the channel. While equation 1 incorporates several assumptions which are not strictly valid, it provides a simple physical basis for designing a conceptual plan for trapping sediment in the valley floor. The floodplain restoration aims manipulate variables on the right side of equation 1 to increase the trap efficiency. Particle settling velocities are fixed; the levee setback scenario proposed by the project sponsors will: (1) Increase lob from 0 to ~1250’ by choosing a configuration which maximizes the overbank flow path given the land use constraints expressed by the sponsoring agencies; (2) Reduce uob by increasing hydraulic roughness on the floodplain (by densely vegetating the floodplain surface) and reducing the water surface slope (using a levee to keep flow on the higher side of the valley floor); and (3) Reduce dob by increasing flow width for a given flow. 4.3 Rationale for Modeling Approach The calculations described next were made in order to respond to the cooperating agencies’ request to provide a quantitative evaluation of the proposed floodplain restoration strategy. While the ideal product of such calculations would be an estimate of the average annual deposition rate on the restored floodplain, we strongly believe that such a calculation would be 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 15 misleading because the timescale over which an ‘average’ rate would be valid is much longer than the design time scale. Instead, we suggest that the project be considered with respect to its performance during individual events rather than its performance during a non-existent ‘average’ year. Such calculations are more far more realistic and can provide useful insights about what is likely to occur. First, the ‘average annual’ amount of sediment deposition on the floodplain would depend on the ‘average annual’ sediment yield, its particle size distribution, and on the hydraulic properties of flows carrying this material into the project reach. None of these quantities are known with any degree of confidence, as evidenced by the order-of-magnitude discrepancies in sediment yield estimates described in section 3 and Table 1. Furthermore, in any given year, both the amount of sediment influx and the trap efficiency of the floodplain will vary due to the occurrence of events of different magnitudes. For example, the sediment transport modeling by TetraTech (1998b) predicts that 135,000 tons of fine sediment will be discharge from Los Osos Creek during the ‘100-year flood’, and only 27 tons during the ‘2-year flood’ (see TetraTech, 1998b, Table 17). The predicted sediment yield for the 2-year event is low by comparison with qualitative and quantitative measures. A total sediment yield for a significant flood event from a steep, rapidly eroding watershed in coastal California is likely to be several thousand tons, not several tens of tons. The modeled peak discharge in Los Osos Creek during a 2-year event is 35 cfs; according to the equation used by TetraTech to predict sediment concentrations (see p. 11 in their report), the sediment concentration at peak discharge would be 31.5 mg/L, which is essentially clear water. A more physically reasonable value of peak sediment concentration during a 2-year flood event would be several thousand mg/L. Thus while we are skeptical about the absolute magnitude of their estimates, they remain the best available input to a sedimentation model because they include event-based predictions of sediment yield. The TetraTech estimate of the ‘average annual’ sediment yield from the Los Osos Creek watershed is about 10,000 tons/year10. While we do not necessarily support either the manner in which this study was done nor its findings, it is the most recent estimate and is used in our analysis. It suggests that over long periods of time most of the sediment transport occurs Note: the TetraTech estimate of an average annual sediment yield of approximately 10,000 tons/year from Los Osos Creek is based on applying their calibrated sediment transport model to 18 years of mean daily discharge data from Chorro Creek. Since their hydraulic modeling estimates that flood hydrographs last significantly less than 24 hours, and because in their model instantaneous sediment flux increases with the 2.25 power of discharge, we believe that this underestimates sediment fluxes during days with high flow (which transport nearly all the sediment according to their calculations). 10 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 16 during events which occur on average less than once in 10 years, with relatively negligible amounts of sediment transport in more than 90% of the years. Over geological time scales, it may be reasonable to speak in terms of ‘average annual’ amounts of sediment transport in the watershed. However, over human time scales and for the purpose of this project it is misleading to present sediment yields for an ‘average’ year: in terms of the sediment yield calculations by TetraTech, the ‘average’ year in Los Osos Creek would contain nearly 3 separate 10-year floods, 13 5-year floods, or 350 2-year floods. Alternatively, the ‘average year’ would consist of less than 1/10 of a single 100-year flood. The concept of an ‘average’ year for sediment transport is only valid if the time scale of interest is much longer than the recurrence interval of the main sediment transporting events. The problem of inter-annual variability becomes even more intractable for the purpose of estimating the ‘average’ floodplain sedimentation rate over project time scales. Since the trap efficiency will depend on the size of the flood event (uob and dob in equation 1), any estimate of an average sedimentation rate will largely reflect an arbitrary decision about how to characterize the hydrology of the nonexistent ‘average’ year. For example, consider if one were to assume an annual average sediment yield of 10,000 tons/year for Los Osos Creek. A much higher proportion of that 10,000 tons would be deposited in the project floodplain if it occurred during several hundred 2-year events (an obviously impossible scenario) than if it were to occur during one-tenth of a 100-year event (another impossible scenario). Thus, while it is possible to model or measure long-term floodplain sedimentation rates (and we have done both; e.g. Malmon, 2002), there is a limit to the usefulness of such a calculation for a project in which the design life may be shorter than the return period of the main sediment transporting events. One of the challenges of this project in lower Los Osos Creek is that knowledge of sediment yields is not sufficient to characterize how many years of potential transport into Morro Bay might be deposited at this site. Since knowledge of transport in the channel is insufficient for some planning purposes, we chose to concentrate instead on the amount and location of potential deposition Therefore our strategy is to examine the potential performance of the project during individual events, for which we can characterize the hydraulic conditions. To the extent that the TetraTech calculations of sediment flux during individual events can be believed, we can make rough predictions of floodplain sedimentation during different magnitude flows. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 17 If most of the sediment is transported to Morro Bay during infrequent, high-magnitude events (TetraTech 1998b), it is the performance of the project during such events that will likely determine its ultimate success. It is our opinion that considerable transport occurs at lower flows, consistent with the experience of dredging sediment from the lower Los Osos channel and that these should be considered as well. 4.4 Hydraulic Modeling 4.4.1 Modeling approach The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers hydraulic modeling package HEC-RAS was employed to examine the hydraulic impacts of floodplain restoration along the Los Osos Creek. HEC-RAS is an integrated set of software which simulates one-dimensional steady and unsteady flow hydraulics. This model is commonly used to predict water surface elevations and velocities during high flow events. The basis for the calculations is the equations for conservation of mass and momentum of flow in one-dimension, and an equation for flow resistance along the channel and floodplain. For subcritical flow (which was assumed in this model implementation), the calculations proceed upstream from the lower boundary using a stepbackwater procedure.11 The model was used to simulate flow hydraulics near the confluence between Los Osos and Warden Creeks, for existing conditions and for the proposed project scenario. The spatial extent of the model is shown in Figure 4, in which cross sections 2 to 6 were considered to be in Los Osos Creek above the continuous willows on the Morrissey property, and cross sections 10 to 13 in Warden Creek above the six-acre farmstead. These sections were surveyed in the field. We generated cross sections A to C from the map. Although the location of the stream channel confluence is currently downstream of cross section C, and just upstream of the former Santa Ysabel Avenue crossing, the entire area downstream of the wetland easement is known to be flooded during high-flow events (Alan Eto, landowner, personal communication), and was therefore considered to be downstream of the confluence. The number of cross sections used in modeling was quite small, constrained by the limited funding available for surveying. The CSLRCD staff were able to substantially supplement the surveyor’s efforts in several ways, including clearing brush from several long sections. This effort allowed some meaningful application of the model, even at cross-section intervals far below the recommended distances. 11 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 18 Cross section A, downstream of the project reach, contains two discrete channels at different elevations (Figure 5). The higher elevation channel is the low flow channel from Los Osos Creek and the lower channel is Warden Creek. Although there will be flow in both channels during large runoff events, HEC-RAS cannot simulate two different water surface elevations in the same cross section during the same flow. Including XS A as a single modeled cross section below forced flow from XS 6 (above the confluence) into the lower channel in XS A, leading to erroneous oversteepened water surface profiles within the project reach. Thus predicted floodplain flow depths and velocities were not realistic. This problem was circumvented by moving the modeled confluence downstream of XS A , including a copy of XS A in both tributaries above the confluence, and forcing the flow from Los Osos Creek to fill the higher elevation channel before overflowing and moving northwest across the floodplain. In order to improve model stability, artificial cross sections were created at 100’ intervals, between those indicated on the map. These cross sections were interpolated from upstream and downstream cross sections, and the interpolated cross sections were checked and minor adjustments made to improve the accuracy of the interpolated cross sections. 4.4.2 Input data for the hydraulic model The hydraulic model requires two general types of data as input: (1) information about the topography and hydraulic roughness along the study reach; and (2) a set of flows in both tributaries and below the confluence. The following data were used in the model: 1. Cross Sections: We supplemented data from channel cross sections surveyed by Vaughn Surveys (Figure 2, blue lines) with contour data from the topographic survey to extend the cross sections across the floodplain (red lines, see below). The data from the two sources did not always match. For example, the north endpoint in cross section 13 is located adjacent to the 30-foot contour on the topographic map, but the surveyed data indicates an elevation of 20.61 feet. Most discrepancies were not as large as this, and we attempted to combine the two data sets in the most reasonable way possible. 2. Longitudinal Data: the horizontal distances between cross sections were measured from the topographic survey map. Distances were measured along the channel and along the floodplain between each pair of cross sections. The vertical difference between cross sections was determined by assuming that the elevations from the surveyed cross sections were accurate. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 19 3. Downstream Boundary: we assumed flow conditions to be sub-critical in all instances. Subcritical flow is probably a reasonable assumption and only requires the downstream boundary condition to be defined. We computed the approximate downstream slope between the surveyed thalweg elevation in cross section C (Figure 2) and another surveyed cross section which is not indicated on the map (0.008). The topographic information downstream of the wetland easement is imprecise because of dense tree cover and low relief, so the boundary condition is poorly constrained. We performed a sensitivity analysis and found that water surface elevations in the area of the proposed modification were not affected by the downstream boundary condition. Similarly, the model indicates that tidal influences do not propagate upstream to the project area even during high-flow events. 4. Channel and Floodplain Roughness: the Manning roughness coefficient for the channel was assumed to be 0.035 in all model runs. This value is representative of “winding, natural streams” with considerable vegetative growth (c.f., Dunne and Leopold, 1978), or “clean, straight, full [channels, with] no rifts or deep pools [but with some] stones and weeds” (Chow, 1959). Floodplain roughness was assumed to be to 0.15, to characterize “dense willows, summer” (HEC-RAS manual). 5. Flow Input Data: the model was run for the 2-year, 10-year, and 100-year discharges in Los Osos Creek (“Los Osos Creek at Gage”, above Warden Creek) and in Warden Creek. The discharge estimates were from TetraTech (1998a), who ran a hydrologic model of the two sub-basins that considered watershed shape, soil conditions, and slope, given assumed rainstorms of varying recurrence interval. We assumed that the peak discharges from these modeled discharges reached the confluence concurrently. In other words, the peak discharges from the two reaches above the confluence were simply combined to estimate the discharge downstream of the confluence. This is not likely to occur; therefore, our estimates of flow downstream of the confluence and backwater effects can be considered conservative in the sense that they are probably representative of flows with recurrence intervals greater than 2, 10, and 100 years. 4.4.3 Hydraulic model results The topography at cross section A (Figure 5) illustrates the importance of the peculiar topography of the project reach for the proposed project. The current levee keeps the Los Osos Creek channel at an artificially high elevation, leading to a reduction in slope in the vicinity of 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 20 the Eto property, and an increased slope downstream, where the contours are parallel to the axis of the valley floor (Figure 4). This human-induced reduction in bed slope along Los Osos Creek may partially explain historical bed material accumulation in the reach from which has required repeated dredging to maintain a channel. Because Los Osos Creek does not flow at the lowest point in the valley floor, a project which only removes the current levee in order to restore the floodplain can potentially allow the channel to avulse, flow across the floodplain, and occupy the lowest position in the valley (the Warden Creek channel). Therefore the scenario that we have proposed is a setback levee. If the field in the area of cross sections 4 – 6 is to be used to store sediment, a new levee must be constructed as shown in Figures 4 and 7. The red arrows in Figure 4 depict the trajectory of a parcel of water over the floodplain under project conditions: sediment-laden water will be directed into the floodplain at the bend near cross section 4. The setback levee will keep the flow on the west side of the valley and reduce the water surface slope through the project reach (Figure 4), enhancing sedimentation. The hydraulic model results for the existing and proposed conditions, in the vicinity of cross sections 4 – 6, are summarized in Table 2 and illustrated graphically in Figure 7. According to the model, under proposed project, overbank flooding is expected to occur at all three cross sections during relatively small events, while expected overbank flow depths and velocities are expected to remain relatively low (< 5’ and < 2 feet per second, respectively) during extreme flow events. Frequent overbank inundation with relatively low depths and velocities are conditions which are expected to enhance sediment deposition. Sedimentation calculations for project conditions are discussed in the next section. 4.4.3.1 Backwater limits from tidewater One of the concerns of Mr. Eto is the potential for backwater flooding of his property during high flow events which coincide with high tide. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the potential for backwater flooding on the Eto parcel. We simulated the effect of high tide by running the hydraulic model after reducing the slope downstream of cross section C. We found that reducing the slope an order of magnitude, from 0.008 to 0.0008, had no effect on predicted water surface elevations on in cross sections 4-6, on the Eto property, for all three flow magnitudes. Reducing the slope by another order of magnitude only affected water surface elevations on the Eto property for the 100-year flow. However, the backwater effects were more pronounced along Warden Creek, which is lower than Los Osos Creek. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 21 4.5 Sedimentation Calculations and Interpretation 4.5.1 Model assumptions Because the absolute amount of sediment influx into the study reach is not well constrained, the strategy we adopted is to first compute the proportion of the sediment load in each particle size class expected to deposit on the restored floodplain surface. The calculations are based on equation 1, which states that the floodplain trap efficiency is equal to the ratio of the particle fall distance to the water depth on the floodplain. As with any model, this statement incorporates several important simplifying assumptions : That sediment in all particle sizes is vertically well-mixed in the water column as the flow enters the floodplain. That, once over the floodplain surface, sediment settles through the water column as it would if the water were still; that is, that the intensity of turbulent mixing over the floodplain is low compared with that over the channel bed. That vertical erosion of the floodplain by the overbank flow is negligible These assumptions are probably not strictly valid, but are supported by the results of the hydraulic modeling (Table 2): flow velocities over the floodplain are much lower than those within the channel – thus one would expect that vertical mixing of sediment by turbulent eddies is much more intense in the main channel, keeping the sediment well mixed in the flow. Where the flow enters the floodplain, the intensity of turbulent mixing decreases rapidly, allowing particles to settle out. Erosion of the floodplain is probably not likely because floodplain water velocities are generally less than 1.5 foot/second. Furthermore, the floodplain surface will likely be protected by vegetation. Even if the above assumptions are violated, the model we have proposed to predict floodplain sedimentation can provide qualitative insights into the problem. The model is simple, transparent, and it contains the first-order variables which control the process: sediment size, overbank flow depths, overbank flow velocities, and the size of the floodplain. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 22 4.5.2 Values used in the model The calculation described above (equation 1) requires estimates of: (1) particle settling velocity; (2) the overbank path length of a parcel of water; and (3) the water depth and velocity over the floodplain. Settling velocities were computed using the method of Dietrich (1982), who presented an empirical equation for settling velocity based on experimental studies. This equation accounts for the effects of size, density, shape, and roundness. In making these calculations, we have assumed a particle density of 2.65, plus typical values for grains and water and water viscosity at 25 degrees Celsius. The computed settling velocities for different grain sizes are presented in Table 2.12 The overbank trajectory of a ‘typical’ water parcel through the proposed floodplain is illustrated by the red arrows in Figure 4. According to the topographic data, the flow path of water entering the floodplain should be parallel to the setback levee to the point where the levee turns across the valley toward Warden Creek. Beyond the edge of the levee, the water parcel will turn northeastward across the valley, perpendicular to the contour lines. The slope of the water surface is reduced in the vicinity of cross sections 4 – 6, and increases downstream where the water is allowed to follow the lines of steepest topographic slope. Thus the opportunity for sedimentation is maximized in the area adjacent to the setback levee. The length of the red arrow parallel to the proposed setback levee is 1250’. This value was used in all the sedimentation calculations below. Water depths and velocities over the floodplain will vary with event magnitude: larger floods will produce deeper and faster flows over the floodplain, reducing the amount of sediment which will deposit on the floodplain. Depths and velocities over the floodplain for large using the HEC-RAS model. Discharges for various recurrence intervals are based on the runoff modeling by TetraTech (1998a), for the stations “Los Osos Creek at Gage”, and “Warden Creek” (upstream of the confluence). Below the confluence, the discharges were combined. TetraTech (1998b) reports modeled peak and average discharges for the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, and 100-year flood events. We ran the HEC-RAS model for all 12 reported discharges, We anticipate that floodflows will typically have temperatures of about 12 deg. C, and that some of the diatomaceous sediments will have a particle density of less than 2.65, but used the higher values (which will overestimate settling velocities) to offset the neglected role of vegetation which does increase sedimentation rates. 12 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 23 in order to examine how the floodplain trap efficiency would vary from moderate to extreme events, and during events from the average to peak discharges. For each model run, the average overbank flow depth and velocity from XS 4 –6 were noted; the values in the 2nd and 3rd columns in Table 3 were determined by averaging the estimates at the three cross sections. 4.5.3 Results and interpretations of the sedimentation calculations Predicted values of floodplain trap efficiency, for a range of discharge and particle size, are presented in Table 3. According to the calculations, virtually all the sand transported overbank at the head of the project reach should deposit on the restored floodplain. Nearly all the silt is also expected to deposit, except during peak discharges of very large floods. The model predicts that, for the hydraulic conditions modeled, nearly all the clay particles will traverse the floodplain without being deposited. We believe that these calculations make intuitive sense based on our field observations, a fact which increases our confidence in the underlying model. However, the simple quantitative prediction that nearly all the sand and silt will deposit, while nearly all the clay will not, would not have been possible from qualitative field observations. These results demonstrate the importance of understanding the amount and character (i.e., timing and particle size distribution) of sediment entering the study reach to assessing the potential success of the proposed project. The problems with estimating the ‘average annual’ sediment yield from the watershed at project time scales were discussed in section 4.3. However, the TetraTech (1998b) report included estimates of sediment yield by event, and these data can be analyzed in light of our model. Because the TetraTech (1998b) predictions are central to our interpretations, we briefly outline the nature of their sediment transport model, and our use of their numbers. Their calculations considered the sediment load as consisting of two parts: (1) Bed material load, consisting of particle size classes found in large quantities within the channel bed; and (2) Wash load, consisting of particles which are generally not represented in the channel but which occur in floodplain deposits. They make the reasonable assumption that the bed material load is determined by the transport capacity of the flow (is transport-limited), while the washload is controlled by the watershed erosion rate (supply-limited). They calculated the bed material transport capacity of different particle size classes using hydraulically-based computations, and integrated these equations over their modeled hydrographs for a range of large modeled flows. To estimate the washload yield for each event, they used an empirical equation (Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation), which was calibrated using: (1) suspended sediment data from 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 24 two small watersheds – Walters Creek and Chumash Creek – in the Chorro watershed; and (2) topographic data describing the length and slope of the Los Osos Creek watershed. The TetraTech modeling does rest upon the assumption that erosion processes and substrate (bedrock and soils) are similar in these three watersheds, an assumption with which we cannot agree, even as a first approximation, and revisions of our modeling are warranted as soon as data specific to the different geologic conditions of the Los Osos Creek come available (see recommendations in Chapter 5,6 and 7, below) Using this approach, they estimated that the bed material load accounted for only a few percent of the total load to Morro Bay. TetraTech assumed that it accounts for a much larger proportion of the total load during relatively moderate events and its contribution is essentially negligible for very large events (Table 4, first 2 columns).13 For the sake of simplicity and because of a lack of adequate data to be more precise, we assumed that the bed material load is primarily sand, and the washload comprises equal parts silt and clay (data from soils in the watershed support the second assumption, see Table 2 in TetraTech 1998b). We made a very rough estimate of the proportion of the total sediment yield that enters the floodplain in the project reach, by assuming it would be equal to the portion of the flow which is flowing over the floodplain during the ‘average’ discharge during that event. The relative proportions of water flowing over the channel and floodplain in the project reach was available from the HEC-RAS model, and remained within a relatively narrow range (50 to 60%, see Table 4) over the range of modeled flows. Only this portion of the sediment load was considered to have the potential to deposit in the floodplain. We used the TetraTech (1998b) estimates of sediment discharge by event and our floodplain sedimentation model to predict the amount of sediment expected to deposit within the project reach during flood events of different sizes (Table 4). To the extent that the TetraTech calculations accurately describe the sediment load14, our calculations suggest that the proposed floodplain will trap relatively little sediment during small events (~10 tons during the 2-year flood), but could potentially store up to 25,000 tons during extreme flood events. While possibly true in the Chorro watershed, sediment influxes from large outcrop areas of both ancient sand dunes (Hall, 1973) and sandstone (Nitchmann, 1988) are diagnostic of Los Osos Creek, and substantial sand loads should be anticipated at least until the sand-influx reaches upstream of Los Osos Valley Blvd are stabilized. 14 As noted above, while we these calculations to be imprecise at best. While they have not presented uncertainty estimates, they are probably only useful to within an order-of-magnitude, especially for storms with peaks of lower recurrences. 13 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 25 Our calculations suggest that most of the sediment that will be trapped in the restored floodplain during such large events will be in the silt size range – plus the additional sands transported by Los Osos Creek due to the current destabilized conditions and not recognized in the TetraTech calculations -- while the floodplain is not expected to trap much of the clay-sized sediment during flows which inundate the restored floodplain. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 26 5. TOWARD A MANAGEMENT PLAN Initial objectives outlined at the first field meeting of the project team included: 1. Trap sediment before it reaches Morro Bay, especially the finer fraction that is found in suspended load, by restoring the floodplain and applying natural (geomorphic) stream processes, 2. Design a bankfull (1.5-2 year recurrence) channel that is effective at: (1) transporting bedload (coarse material), (2) spreads larger flood flows across the floodplain, and (3) provides passage for upstream and downstream steelhead migration, 3. Project needs to coexist with other surrounding land uses, facilities, or structures, 4. Maintenance should be minimal, preferably self-maintaining; worst case would be maintaining with hand crews and small pieces of equipment. 5. If possible, improve habitat for other threatened or endangered species found in the immediate project area. 5.1 Program Elements 5.1.1 Cooperator’s preferred alternative The preferred alternative identified by the project cooperators is described in Appendix B. 5.1.2 Modified preferred alternative We suggest a phased modification to the proposed alternative, which (a) retains the sedimentation initiative and essential elements of the program originally envisioned while also recognizing (b) the late changes in the ownerships to be affected, (c) our recommendation to incorporate the likelihood of future avulsion in the planning, (d) the value of easements already negotiated for this program, the (e) insufficient geomorphic bases for planning sedimentation to 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 27 control sediment contributions from the highly disturbed reach upstream of Los Osos Valley Blvd. It also allows the cooperating (or sponsoring) agencies to consider the significant strategic and resource-ethical questions remain as to when to use the current limited sedimentation potential of the lower Los Osos Valley. It may be used now, when sediment from the highlydisturbed reach will be retained, or it may be used later to keep otherwise hard-to-settle silts and clays out of Morro Bay, once this reach has been stabilized. It is also feasible to pursue a combined strategy of commencing sediment management through restoration of the riparian corridors now, followed by construction of structures to induce sedimentation once the current load of excessive sediment has been reduced. The modified preferred alternative can be best described as three phases: • Phase I. Establish the sediment-retention area, and (if necessary)15 the maximum levels to which sediment accumulation can be tolerated within each sector and/or easement. • Phase II. (a) Conduct the additional basic investigations needed, including evaluating the level of sediment-control which might be attained by stabilizing the channel between its western-most bend and the Eto crossing, and the incremental hazards of channel obstruction and avulsion which might be reduced by stabilizing these reaches. (b) Further, re-define the project to serve in a ‘polishing role’ in which smaller volumes and finer grain-sizes of sediment will settled, a more appropriate role for the site; additionally, this role will extend the effective life of the project manifold, and allow it to control finer sediment which is being deposited further out in the Bay. • Phase III. Re-assess the facilities and operations needed in light of reduced sediment loads and the properties under easement for sediment retention, using the data and models developed by Balance staff. If the re-assessment proves minor, the analyses from this report may well prove sufficient; however, the possibility of a major rethinking of the project’s elements is possible. Changing the banks or existing berms and constructing new facilities without this re-assessment could result in attributions of responsibility for overflows or changes in flow patterns on the valley floor, particularly if the Martines parcel is not included in the project. Sediment accumulation maxima would be needed if (a) continued funding for clearance of the channel cannot be assured, (b) the connection between Eto Lake and the stream should be maintained or enhanced, and/or (c) all parcels subject to overflow or avulsion from Los Osos toward Warden Creeks are not included in the sediment-retention program. 15 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 28 5.1.3 Possible supplemental future retention Additional sediment storage in the range of 100 to 200 acre feet might be achieved by emplacing a berm across the valley at the present location of the access road to the farmstead. The main function of this berm would be to provide a quiet-water environment in which finer-grained sediment now transported into the heart of Morro Bay may be settled. This supplement should not considered until upstream sediment sources have been substantially reduced, and periods of heavy sediment transport have been reduced to those approximating the magnitude and relatively-rapid recession typical of the responses to episodic events under the former natural conditions. Additional reasons for deferring consideration of bermed retention include the likelihood that water would back up onto the Martines property, which we understand has now been excluded from this analysis, the difficulty in making the bermed reach passable to steelhead until the woodland established since 1994 on the Morrissey property has matured, questions regarding long-term benefits to be achieved by directing flows into lower Los Osos and Warden Creeks downstream from the farmstead, and the lack of pertinent geotechnical information, among others. Existing analogs are helpful when envisioning this conceptual possibility. We note that a berm of similar nature constructed in 1929 at Searsville Lake at Stanford University’s Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve. It supports a low-gradient deltaic willow woodland very similar to the one now evolving on the Morrissey property and those downstream, and is considered a valuable element of JBRP. It should be noted that this approach is suited to control of fine sediment either from Los Osos Creek’s present maintained channel, or from Warden Creek, either before or after Los Osos Creek may avulse into Warden Creek. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 29 5.2 Phasing The sponsoring agencies’ preferred alternative can be implemented in one phase to commence when all easements and permits are in hand. The supplemental sediment retention element (Sec. 5.1.3) may be considered once the willow woodland on the Morrisey property has matured and the preferred alternative is deemed to have equilibrated. Phasing for the modified preferred alternative has been described above. 5.3 Anticipated Effectiveness of Induced Sedimentation noted in Chapter 3, sediment loads in Los Osos Creek are so much higher than those in Warden Creek that the valley floor along Los Osos Creek is rapidly aggrading. With the progressively steepening cross-valley slope, it is likely that Los Osos Creek will eventually spill across the valley floor to the north side, where Warden Creek occupies the lowest portion of the valley.16 A spill of this type – called ‘avulsion’ in geomorphic parlance – may occur when water simply rises over the top of the bank during large floods. More likely would be triggered by sudden blockage of the creek (such as by the debris jam which often forms quickly after one or more large trees fall into the stream during major storms) and/or by aggradation of the bed following a large sediment influx upstream (such as a debris flow). Inducing sedimentation along Los Osos Creek, as discussed below, may or may not hasten the timing of this geomorphic eventuality, but it should be anticipated during the planning life of this project.17 The effectiveness of this project, then, in reducing sedimentation in Morro Bay and its contributing waters should reasonably be evaluated both before and after the anticipated change in the channel’s course. Measures designed to address the near-term conditions are discussed in section 5.4, and their costs and effectiveness approximated. The role of the site in reducing post-avulsion sedimentation is considered in Sec. 5.5. There is some indication in both the topographic map and aerial photography for this project of prior avulsive events of this type both just upstream of Warden Lake and in the western portion of the Martines property. Alan Eto has mentioned that he can recall flow from Los Osos to Warden Creek during major storms of the past, perhaps during the 1950s or 1960s. See also Schmit (1992), reporting valley-wide overflows and 0.5 feet of deposition on the valley floor during the storms of February 1992. 17 An earlier 3-page feasibility study by Jeff Haltiner (Philip Williams & Associates, 1993) for earlier phases of this project identified the likely ‘capture’ of Warden Creek by Los Osos Creek near the farmstead access road on the Morrissey property, although apparently not further upstream. 16 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 30 5.4 Sedimentation measures under existing conditions 5.4.1 Alternatives considered Alternatives considered by the sponsoring agencies during selection of the preferred alternative are described in Appendix B. Additionally, Balance staff advanced another alternative in June 2001 including a planned overbank channel from the Eto Crossing, downhill through the Martines property to the vicinity of cross-section 13. The modified preferred alternative described above is a new approach, first described in this report, in part in response to the likelihood that the Martines property will not be included. 5.4.2 Proposed project The proposed project was outlined by Central San Luis RCD, Morro Bay Estuary Program and their cooperators in a meeting held on January 17, 200218. It includes a number of different elements: 1. Setting back the existing (eastern) levee along Los Osos Creek some appropriate distance, beginning just downstream of the low-water crossing (cross-section X-3), allowing Los Osos Creek to flood onto lands between the existing creek and the setback levee. The intervening area is to be allowed to revert to floodplain vegetation, with the expectation that the creek will eventually migrate into (and eventually out of) the new floodplain. 2. A new levee will be installed at some appropriate distance west of Warden Creek, with the upper portion derfined by the southwestern boundary of the existing wetland easement. This new levee is intended to allow Warden Creek to flood while still protecting agricultural operations in the center of the valley, and to separate riparian and agricultural uses.. 3. The lands between the setback Los Osos levee and the new levee southwest of Warden Creek would be built up with material excavated from the channels of Los Osos and Warden Creeks. 18 Documented in a memo of January 21, 2002 by Malcolm McEwen (Appendix B) 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 31 4. Overflows from Warden Creek (and presumably also from Los Osos Creek) toward the central sump on the Martines property would be halted by construction of the levees. A map of these elements is shown in Figure 4. The cooperators’ committee also expressly chose to not pursue a number of other alternatives, including: A. Diverting Los Osos Creek to Warden Creek, at a point slightly downstream from Warden Lake B. Removing the levees and allowing the entire area between the levees to flood C. Clearing sediment mechanically from Los Osos Creek (or ‘mining’ without sale of material) D. Clearing sediment mechanically from Los Osos Creek while allowing Warden Creek to flood. The committee also encouraged that the plan include forward-looking elements, such as easements which might allow purchase of the land in the future, perhaps when the existing owners may choose to stop farming. The full text of this important memorandum is included as Appendix B. 5.4.3 Costs Costs will be considered separately by the cooperating agency, in part through use of a spreadsheet provided by Balance. 5.5 Sedimentation role of the site following anticipated avulsion 5.5.1 Problem statement It is likely that sediment retention will occur in two stages – before and after a likely channel change. This section of the report describes effectiveness following the fundamental changed condition following a channel change. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 32 5.5.2 Avulsion effects and timing Effects of a major channel change will be (a) erosion of sediment from the valley floor between the turnout point on Los Osos Creek and the re-entry point on Warden Creek, (b) release of a wedge of sediment from Los Osos Creek immediately upstream of the diversion, as the channel incises, (c) expansion of the Warden Creek channel to accommodate the Los Osos flows, sediment, and woody debris. A useful question is can be asked as to how effective sedimentation will be within the lower Los Osos Valley once the two channels have joined. This will depend, of course, on the location of avulsion and the new confluence. Recognizing the tremendous uncertainties involved, we reran the sedimentation model for combined flows to assess whether velocities would substantially increase – meaning that sedimentation effectiveness would diminish. Results are presented in Table 6, and show relatively small increases in simulated velocities at peak flows, exaggerating the actual peak by assuming that the post-avulsion is computed by adding the pre-avulsion peaks of the two streams. We concluded that the lower Los Osos valley can continue to function as a long-range sedimentation reach, even if the major anticipated shifts in channel do occur. We do not know when avulsion will occur, only that it is likely in the foreseeable geomorphic future. It could be triggered by an individual event, collapse of a wooded bank into the stream, or movement a potential ‘pulse’ of sediment originating in the actively disturbed reach into the project area. Other catalytic events can be envisioned. It might be noted that the relatively minor floods of 1992 are reported to have flowed overbank out of Los Osos Creek at Eto Crossing (Schmitt, 1992). 5.5.3 Preparing for avulsion There will be some questions as to whether or not to accept a partial or temporary change in channel course. Written criteria should be developed to guide sedimentation-reach managers as to when to acknowledge a permanent and along-term change in course, and when to consider re-directing a partially-changed channel into the existing Los Osos Creek channel. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 33 We suggest that environmental and operational costs incurred in operating under existing, preavulsion conditions be tracked, such that post-avulsion costs may be anticipated. This may affect protocols for a decision as to whether to accept a channel change. 5.6 Required permits Three groups of permits will be required as part of the proposed project: a. Permits associated with recurring excavation and grading to remove accumulated sediment The CSLRCD and the site owner have conducted dredging of the channel on multiple occasions in the past, and are familiar with the permitting requirements, which include: An individual permit under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act (CWA), to be sought from the Regulatory Section of the Corps of Engineers, San Francisco District. A streambed alteration agreement under section 1603 of the California Fish and Game Code, to be sought from the Department of Fish and Game. Approval by the California Regional Water Quality Control Board, Central Coast Region, under Section 401 of the Clean Water Act. b. Permits associated with one-time grading The proposed project is of a size requiring a grading permit from the County of San Luis Obispo. The proposed project will not materially affect the closed County landfill immediately to the northeast. Results of the HEC-RAS simulations (Chapter 4) show that allowing revegetation of the Warden Creek corridor will not discernibly raise water levels during periods of inundation. To the extent that the project induces deposition or delays or deflects westward whatever future channel changes may occur, only beneficial effects of the proposed project are expected on the landfill and its remnant water-quality influences. No reason to amend the closure plan for the site can be identified. c. Permitting associated with extracting aggregate for sale 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 34 Under California’s Surface Mining and Reclamation Act (SMARA), the removal of earth materials for sale may be subject to obtaining a use permit and preparation of an approved reclamation plan. Sites where extraction occurs intermittently and where removal is incidental to another primary use, such as will occur in lower Los Osos Creek, are subject to the discretion of the local agency charged with implementing SMARA, which in San Luis Obispo County is planning agency. It is our understanding that a permit and reclamation plan will not be required as part of a project which clears accumulated habitat-impairing sediment and sells a portion of the material removed to defray some of the related costs. Beyond the individual permits, the project will require compliance with the California Environmental Quality Act, which is not a part of the scope of this assessment. The CEQA process will allow resource agencies and jurisdictions without specific permitting responsibilities to comment on the project and functions and values of its setting. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 35 6. RECOMMENDED MONITORING A program promoting sedimentation calls for periodic monitoring of the channel and floodplain areas to anticipate future changes in channel course. In the case of Los Osos Creek, this need is magnified by: (a) its elevation 6 to 10 feet above corresponding segments of Warden Creek on the other side of the valley, and (b) the very high rates of sediment (including wood) delivery to the lower valley. If the program proposed by the sponsoring agencies is implemented, we suggest that the program initiate a basic but regular program of monitoring, to include the following elements, plus other deemed needed by biologists, growers, and estuary managers. Sedimentation at this site should be monitored annually and after storms with a recurrence of about 2 years or more, with several objectives: The depth of sediment accumulation in the straight reach downstream of the Eto crossing should be checked for potential blockage of steelhead passage or for filling of the channel to the extent that conveyance is appreciably reduced. Logjams temporarily obstructing flows should be reduced in size such that no more than 15 percent of the channel conveyance is reduced; progressively lower threshold may be considered in future years if the present channel instabilities upstream of Los Osos Boulevard and current rates of incision persist. In some years, this may require walking Los Osos Creek from tidewater to the southern edge of the present Eto lands upstream of cross-section 1. Long-term changes in the stream profile should be monitored to assess whether significant and persistent changes are occurring, and whether these may be related to sedimentation promoted at this site. We suggest that re-surveys of cross-sections 1, 4, 6, 12, 14, 17, and 22 be performed at intervals of approximately 5 years or following events with recurrences of about 10 years or more in either or both creeks. The program should purchase and/or review recent or post-flood aerial photography from slightly upstream of cross-section 1 as far downstream as Santa 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 36 Ysabel Avenue (tidewater) to assess if avulsion or other significant change in channel course may be occurring, and what effects these changes may have on sediment delivery to and steelhead passage to our from Morro Bay. Locations of knickpoints in the Los Osos and Warden Creek channels downstream of crosssections 6 and 14 should be mapped and their heights noted. The 5-year monitoring should be conducted by a specialist in channel behavior or sedimentation, with experience in steelhead passage, and with State of California registration in an appropriate profession. The essential assumptions of the HEC-RAS models affecting flow profiles should be qualitatively re-examined at intervals of five years or (if first occurring) following events with recurrences of 10 years on either stream. At a minimum, width and Manning’s ‘n’ of the riparian corridor should be compared with those assumed in the model. If substantially different and if differences may materially increase inundation levels or risk of avulsion, the model should be re-run and modifications to the project once implemented should be considered. At least once a year, growers or other lessees should meet with program managers regarding the condition of wells, water-supply lines, major drains and other infrastructure to assess compatibility of the program with ongoing agricultural operations. Because it is likely that significant changes in the channels may occur, including shifts in the locations of the channels, program managers should develop contingency plans for actions which they may wish to take following potential (a) major avulsion of Los Osos Creek to the north (Warden Creek) side of the valley, and/or (b) recurrent minor avulsion of Warden Creek between sections 12 and 13, with specific attention to: Steelhead passage Effects on infrastructure and access Potential damage to the County’s monitoring-well network immediately below the closed landfill. Since existing data on flood flows and sediment transport into the reach are either not quite adequate or subject to question, the program should consider contributing/participating in some manner in a professional sediment-transport monitoring program or a standard ‘rapid sediment budget.’ Findings of such an effort should be incorporated into the management program for the lower Los Osos Valley. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 37 The sponsoring agencies should also regularly monitor the costs and benefits of conducting this program, as fundamental changes in the lower Los Osos Valley are expected should Los Osos Creek avulse. Managers should periodically review the costs and benefits, updating a contingency program which anticipates avulsion with prior criteria for deciding whether to incur the costs of returning Los Osos Creek to its present channel or accepting its eventual shift into the existing Warden Creek alignment. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 38 7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 1. This report summarizes some of the key opportunities and constraints affecting sedimentation in lower Los Osos and Warden Creeks, and analyzes effects of a proposed preferred alternative on flood levels and velocities during design storms. It also explores factors affecting steelhead migration as Los Osos Creek passes through the heavily-wooded or intensively-farmed valley floor. This analysis was funded by the California Coastal Conservancy, and directed by the Morro Bay Natural Estuary Program, with very substantial assistance from the Central San Luis Resource Conservation District. 2. The present study was motivated in large part by the identified success of planned deposition of floodplains along lower Chorro Creek, as the main element in the Chorro Flats Enhancement and Management Plan, a 12-year effort directed by the Central San Luis Resource Conservation District and funded by the Coastal Conservancy, with substantial work by the USDA Soil Conservation Service and several consulting firms. Authors of the Chorro Flats study recommended, based on a rapid and limited assessment that the lower Los Osos/Warden Creek Valley also be considered for a depositional area to protect Morro Bay, 3. While it was hoped when this program was initially authorized in the mid-1990s that a very limited study ‘piggybacking’ on the Chorro Flats work would allow development of a detailed plan for the lower Los Osos/Warden Creek area, conditions and constraining factors have proven to be fundamentally different, and the approach to inducing deposition in this area must necessarily be different. 4. Primary project objectives adopted by the sponsoring agencies include: restoring riparian and alluvial-valley functions while also retaining agricultural uses reducing the volume of sediment entering Morro Bay from Los Osos and Warden Creeks 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 39 maintaining, if not enhancing, steelhead passage between the Bay and Clark Valley or other montane portions of the Los Osos watershed, and managing the lower Los Osos Valley in a manner consistent with sensitive-species needs. Minimizing economic and environmental costs of maintaining flow and sediment transport through the two channels, especially through Los Osos Creek, which has been mined or had sediment removed to depths of four to five feet over much its length within the study area. 5. Geomorphic Conditions: Slopes, substrate, and sediment transport in the Los Osos and Warden arms of the system differ fundamentally. Nearly all of the sands and gravels transported to Lower Los Osos Creek/Warden Creeks originate from the steep, incising Los Osos Creek portion of the watershed. Los Osos Creek has deposited a fan-like alluvial apron, actually damming Warden Creek to form Warden Lake. Sediments passing through Warden Lake from Warden Creek are almost entirely silts and clays. Most of the deposition in this part of the valley has been and will be from the Los Osos arm. The proposed project will help retain coarse sediment within the valleys upstream of Morro Bay, keeping much of the hard-toremove coarse sediment from entering the Bay. 6. Land Use Considerations: The valley has been farmed continuously since the late 1800s, and continued agricultural use is sought by both the project sponsors and growers who own and lease most of the land. 7. Sediment yields from Los Osos Creek to Morro Bay, which likely have increased by an order of magnitude during the past 150 years, are currently even greater, due to four sources which have developed recently, probably during the past decade or two: A large landslide dating to the 1995 storms which obstructed and fundamentally disrupted the channel of Los Osos Creek, near approximately one-half mile upstream of the mountain front, in an eastward draining unnamed tributary near the horseshoe bend at the western-most point of the creek’s trace; 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 40 Several feet of channel incision and up to many tens of feet of bank retreat, in a highlydisturbed reach extending more than 2 miles downstream from the western-most bend just upstream of the mountain front to the head of the depositional reach; Erosion of dune deposits on the west bank of Los Osos Creek, especially upstream of Los Osos Valley Boulevard, but also downstream as well; Incision of gullies through the dune deposits of the Baywood formation, likely associated with intensifying land uses; Downstream from this highly-disturbed reach, incision of tributaries and more limited bank retreat along Los Osos Creek Downstream from the highly-disturbed reach, incision of tributaries and more limited bank retreat along Los Osos Creek. A separate study into sediment sources has been underway, directed by the Morro Bay National Estuary Program. Results of that study will provide information essential to refining the plan for the lower portions of Los Osos and Warden Creeks. 8. Increasing rates of sediment delivery from upstream are evidenced in the study area by (a) a bed with significantly more sand and gravel than appear in the beds of older channels exposed in the cutbanks of the creek. Similarly, the proportion of white ‘chalkrock’ gravels and cobbles (the source formation for the 1995 landslide) is presently higher than in most (but not all) older channels. 9. The high and recently-increased rates of sediment delivery from Los Osos Creek, unless reduced or mitigated by continued dredging, will tend to promote a shallower, broader, and steeper stream geometry, possibly resulting eventually in a sudden major change in course, with Los Osos Creek cutting a new channel across the valley to join Warden Creek. 10. The proposed project was formulated by the cooperators. It includes four main elements: Setting back the levee downstream of the main crossing, 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 41 Ceasing cultivation of a setback corridor along Warden Creek from Warden Lake downstream to the farmstead hill where the two creeks come closest together, Allowing the new setback areas along both Los Osos and Warden Creek to revert to riparian corridors, inducing sedimentation, Continuing ‘mining’ or removing sediment and debris from the channel as needed following major storms to maintain (a) conveyance, and (b) a continuous channel, such that steelhead are able to move upstream and downstream. Balance Hydrologics presented a number of alternatives which were considered briefly at several stages of program development. 11. We modeled water levels during design flows of varying magnitude using the conventional HEC-RAS program. Modeling results show that it will be feasible to allow riparian vegetation to develop within the setback corridors without increasing the risk of flooding during a given storm, at least initially. Eventually, the desired sedimentation in the setback corridors will increase the level of the floodplain within the levees to the point that water levels may be higher during at least some design storms. In actuality, the aging riparian vegetation will gradually become less rough as the individual trees – although larger – become progressively less dense and smoother, which in turn will reduce the rate of deposition in the overbank areas. Hence, the duration of increased conveyance will depend largely upon the rate of sediment accumulation, which will depend upon the duration of the current accelerated sedimenttransport rates. 12. We also developed a sedimentation model specific to lower Los Osos Creek which established that (a) virtually all sand and the vast preponderance of silts transported by Los Osos Creek may be settled in the project area, (b) the volume of deposition will be constrained by slanted valley, and (c) when Los Osos Creek eventually changes course and joins the muchlower alignment of Warden Creek, the proposed project will still be effective in retaining sands and most silts. 13. Overbank deposition along Los Osos Creek associated with the proposed project may eventually total about 10,000 to 25,000 cubic yards, under assumptions described in the report, 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 42 equivalent to from less than one year up to several years of sediment transport in Los Osos Creek. Sedimentation along Warden Creek is expected to be relatively minor, as most coarse silt and sands settle in Warden Lake, just upstream of the lower Los Osos corridor. 14. Sedimentation potential is currently limited by the presence of high value agriculture on the middle of the slanted valley floor, generally lower than the bed of Los Osos Creek during and following storms. Any program to induce sedimentation runs the risk of contributing to an sudden channel change, which may be forthcoming even absent the proposed project. If Los Osos Creek does shift to the lower alignment of Warden Creek, much greater sedimentation potential may be achieved. 15. Strategic and ethical questions remain as to when to use the current limited sedimentation potential. It may be used now, when sediment from the highly-disturbed reach will be retained, or it may be used later to keep otherwise hard-to-settle silts and clays out of Morro Bay, once this reach has been stabilized. It is also feasible to pursue a combined strategy of beginning restoration of the riparian corridors now, followed by construction of structures to induce sedimentation once the current rain of sediment has been reduced. 16. While the scope of the current report is restricted to a preliminary investigation of the potential for sediment storage on this site, we recommend that other potential sites within the watershed be identified for floodplain restoration in order to reduce sediment loads to Morro Bay and increase the longevity of the project currently under consideration. 17. Eventually, further sediment storage may be created by building a low berm across the valley along the existing road to the farmstead hill on the Morrissey property, near cross-section 14. A two-foot berm in this location may induce deposition of an additional 150 to 200 acre feet of sediment and woody material; a lower berm would retain less. Structures of this type have been used elsewhere in the Central Coast counties, ranging from the causeway at Stanford’s Searsville Lake to the Mono Creek sediment-retention facility just upstream of Gibraltar Reservoir in Santa Barbara County. The Stanford facility, constructed in 1929, is a particularly apt analog. 18. Sedimentation at this site should be monitored, annually and after storms with a recurrence of about 2 years or more, with several objectives: 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 43 The depth of sediment accumulation in the straight reach downstream of the Eto crossing should be checked for potential blockage of steelhead passage or for filling of the channel to the extent that conveyance is appreciably reduced. Logjams temporarily obstructing flows should be reduced in size such that no more than 15 percent of the channel conveyance is reduced; progressively lower thresholds may be considered in future years if the present channel instabilities upstream of Los Osos Boulevard and current rates of incision persist. In some years, this may require walking Los Osos Creek from tidewater to the southern edge of the present Eto lands upstream of cross-section 1. Long-term changes in the stream profile should be monitored to assess whether significant and persistent changes are occurring, and whether these may be related to sedimentation promoted at this site. We suggest that re-surveys of cross-sections 1, 4, 5, 6, 12, 14, 17, and 22 be performed at intervals of approximately 5 years and following events with recurrences of about 10 years or more in either or both creeks. The program should purchase and/or review recent or post-flood aerial photography from slightly upstream of cross-section 1 as far downstream as Santa Ysabel Avenue (tidewater) to assess if avulsion or other significant change in channel course may be occurring, and what effects these changes may have on sediment delivery to and steelhead passage to our from Morro Bay. Monitoring should be conducted by a specialist in channel behavior or sedimentation, with experience in steelhead passage, and state-registered in an appropriate profession. At least once a year, growers or other lessees should meet with program managers regarding the condition of crossings, wells, water-supply lines, major drains and other infrastructure to assess compatibility of the program with ongoing agricultural operations. Many decisions will be limited by lack of information on the volume of sediment to be managed under various flow and watershed conditions. If the sponsoring agencies wish to resolve existing discrepancies and to understand the sediment yields of Los Osos and Warden Creek beyond an order-of-magnitude estimate, a basic 2- or 3-year sediment-monitoring program measuring bedload- and suspended-sediment transport rates and conducted in a manner similar to those used in other nearby streams; alternatively, a rapid sediment budget may be 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 44 developed. While there have been many estimates of sediment yield or sediment-transport dynamics for the Los Osos portion of the Morro Bay watershed, they are not based on data from this portion of the watershed. Existing reports acknowledge differences exceeding a factor of 10, and little agreement on when and what type of sediment is mobilized. Especially since gaging has been initiated a short distance upstream, it would be a a responsible course of action to concurrently measure sediment transport before recommending sediment-management measures. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 45 8. REFERENCES Capelli, M., and Keller, E.A., 1993, Ventura River flood of February 1992 -- A lesson ignored?: Water resources bulletin, v. 28, no. 5, p. 813-832. Chow, V.T. (ed.), 1964, Handbook of applied hydrology, McGraw-Hill, New York. Coastal San Luis Resource Conservation District (CSLRCD), 2000, Chorro Flats Enhancement Project: Final report to the Central Coast Regional Water Quality Control Board, 45 p. Crawford, Multari, and Star; Jones and Stokes Associates; Philip Williams & Associates; Habitat Restoration Group, 1992, Appendices to the background report, prepared for the Coastal San Luis Resource Conservation District and the California State Coastal Conservancy. 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Hall, C.A., 1973, Geologic map of the Morro Bay South and Port San Luis quadrangles, San Luis Obispo County, California: U.S. geological survey misc. field Studies Map MF 511. Haltiner, J.P., 1991, Sedimentation processes in Morro Bay, California, in proceedings from Coastal Sediments, Water Resources Specialty Conference, American Society of Civil Engineers, Seattle, Washington, June 25-27, 1991, p. 831-845. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 46 Hecht, B., 1984, Sequential changes in bed habitat conditions in the upper Carmel River following the Marble-Cone fire of August 1977: in Warner, R., and Hendrix, K. (eds), California Riparian Systems: Ecology, Conservation and Productive Management: University of California Press, p. 131-141. Hecht, B., 1993, South of the spotted owl -- Restoration strategies for episodic channels and riparian corridors in Central California: Society of Wetland Scientists 1993 Conference Proceedings, Davis, CA., p. 104-121 Hecht, B., and Owens, J., 1996, Approaches to in-situ calculation of floodplain roughness: Proceedings of the Association of State Floodplain Managers, 20th annual conference, June 10-14. San Diego, CA, p. 142-148. Knudsen, K., Hecht, B., Holmes, D.O., and Flaschka, I., 1992, Hydrologic and geomorphic factors affecting management of the lower Sisquoc River alluvial corridor, Santa Barbara County, California: Balance Hydrologics, Inc., consulting report prepared for SP Milling Company. 72 p. Nitchmann, S.P., 1988, Tectonic geomorphology and neotectonics of the San Luis Range, San Luis Obispo County, California: Unpublished master’s thesis, University of Nevada at Reno, 120 p. Philip Williams & Associates, Ltd., 1993, Recommendations on the potential acquisition of property or conservation easements on the G. Martines property, San Luis Obispo County (Morro Bay Area), California: Consulting report prepared for the California State Coastal Conservancy, 7 p. Philip Williams & Associates (PWA); Crawford, Multari, and Star; Jones and Stokes Associates (JSA); Habitat Restoration Group, 1996, Conceptual Plan Refinement/Final Design Issues, Chorro Flats Enhancement and Management Plan, prepared for the Coastal San Luis Resource Conservation District and the California State Coastal Conservancy, 44 p. plus appendices. Philip Williams & Associates, Ltd., 1997, George Martines property: Observations/recommendations: Memorandum of February 24, 1997 to Karyn Gear, California State Coastal Conservancy, 4 p. Reid, L.M., and T. Dunne, 1996, Rapid evaluation of sediment budgets, Catena Verlag, Reiskirchen, Germany, 164 p. Schmit, E., 1992, Coastal San Luis Resource Conservation District file memo, “George Martines WRP Applicant”, dated August 1, 1992, 1 page. Tetra Tech, Inc., 1998a, Watershed streamflow model, Morro Bay, California: Consulting report prepared for the Morro Bay National Estuary Program, 26 p., appendices and addendum. Tetra Tech, Inc., 1998b, Sediment loading study, Morro Bay, California: Consulting report prepared for the Morro Bay National Estuary Program. 40 p. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Los Angeles District, 1973, Report on flood of 18 January 1973 in San Luis Obispo, California. 24 p. USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS), 1989, Enhancement plan, Morro Bay Watershed, prepared for the Coastal San Luis Resource Conservation District and the California State Coastal Conservancy, 51p. 200060 Los Osos Final Report 1-31-03.doc 47 TABLES FIGURES