UCSD-Tsinghua University Innovation Metrics Survey Project: Electric Vehicles
July 2014
As part of the U.S.-China Innovation Surveys of Expert Opinion on Key Industries conducted by
the University of California San Diego and Tsinghua University1, a survey is currently underway to
compare innovation in the electric vehicle industries in China and the United States. The principal
initial finding is that China is currently 3 years behind U.S. electric vehicle technology, according to
U.S. experts. Within 5 years, China may fully catch up with the U.S. The catch up will be a combined
result of a slow-down in U.S. electric vehicle innovation and China’s domestic advantages.
United States Leading Electric Vehicle Innovation But Slowing Down
The U.S. portion of the electric vehicle survey, conducted in May–June 2014, received responses from
114 U.S. experts with 13 in-depth interviews. 2 Respondents evenly represent the private sector,
academia, and government and include leadership, R&D and policymaking roles. Responses show U.S.
innovation near the global frontier, with 60 percent of U.S. experts rating domestic leading-edge teams
as “very innovative” or “highly innovative.” California carmaker Tesla received broadest recognition
as an EV innovator, with 83 percent of respondents placing it in the top three domestic innovators.
Many interviewees, however, stated that U.S. EV innovation is temporarily stalled, due to high
technology cost and limited market demand. Among those who believe the U.S. is already at the global
technological frontier, there is widespread acknowledgement that current innovation ecosystem
conditions prevent it from achieving economies of scale needed to drive down production costs. The
most cited reason is unstable and inconsistent government policy.
Experts rated the frequent interactions among major actors in industry, universities, and government
as a core strength of the U.S. system. These interactions were not living up to their potential, however,
due to concerns about intellectual property and the absence of domestic battery manufacturing capacity.
Uncertainty of IP ownership, heightened by recent patent law revisions, may be hindering collaboration,
including that with the national labs. Most EV experts praised the strong investment by the Department
of Energy, national labs and universities in core battery research. But without large-scale domestic
battery manufacturing capacity, this research lacks an avenue for commercialization. Much of this state
expenditure is unable to move past the basic research stage.
China Viewed as Positioned Strongly to Compete in Electric Vehicles
U.S. experts regard China as having four fundamental strengths in EV innovation. (1) Partnerships
with U.S. companies and organizations allow China to increase its innovation pace and skip iterations
in EV development. (2) China’s long-term national plans and stable policy enable Chinese innovators
to achieve lower long-term costs. (3) China’s large domestic market will enable economies of scale
quickly. (4) Serious pollution is spurring a large government push for zero-emission vehicles.
For more results, please visit: http://igcc.ucsd.edu/USChinaSurvey.
1
The U.S.-China Innovation Surveys of Expert Opinion on Key Industries aims to reach beyond prevailing inputoriented U.S.-China innovation comparisons to capture the full innovation process by measuring innovation output
and the innovation ecosystem in high-tech sectors in the U.S. and China. Each survey targets a specific industry and
is administered to industry experts. To capture the forefront of the innovation curve, questions are asked about leadingedge innovators.
2
Administration of the electric vehicle survey to Chinese respondents is currently in progress. Please check back in
coming months for additional results.