Capital Metro Business Case in Brief Prepared by: CAPITAL METRO AGENCY – ACT Government, GPO Box 158, Canberra ACT 2601 capitalmetro.act.gov.au 1.0Chief Minister’s Foreword Light rail is part of a long term plan to create a prosperous, lively, liveable Canberra that reflects the pride we feel in our city. This necessary and affordable investment is about much more than transport. It will revitalise Northbourne Avenue, the main entrance to our city, and link up with the renewal we’re already seeing in Braddon, Dickson and Gungahlin’s lively town centre. It will create jobs – more than 3500 in the construction stage alone – and opportunities. It will also sit as a natural, pragmatic component of a wider whole – road and rail transport, innovation, thriving business, a diverse economy – all of which helps us continue to be a liveable, mature city. We can afford light rail. By entering into a Public Private Partnership, a private consortium brings proven expertise and innovation to the project, whilst it also bears the upfront cost until light rail is operational. We will only start paying for the capital cost of the project when Canberrans are travelling by light rail along Northbourne Avenue. We are ready for more diverse transport options. We are ready for an entrance to the city that makes an impact worthy of a national capital and one of the world’s most liveable cities. We are ready to take our place as a major city on the world stage – this investment in building Canberra is necessary and appropriate as we continue improving our city in its second century. Katy Gallagher ACT Chief Minister 2.0Minister’s Message Capital Metro stage one is the start of a light rail network that will play a vital role in ensuring Canberra’s future as a vibrant, sustainable and liveable city. Capital Metro will help redress a historic imbalance in the way we have invested in transport. Over the past 10 years the ACT has spent more than $1 billion building roads. As a consequence of our city’s roadcentric growth, we have amongst the highest rates of car dependency in Australia. This cannot continue. This Business Case in Brief summarises information contained in the Capital Metro Full Business Case which is being released simultaneously with this document. It is an unusual step for any government to release a full business case. It demonstrates the ACT Government’s genuine commitment to openness and transparency. The ACT Government is taking responsible action to build the infrastructure we know we need. Light rail is an important long-term investment and one we can afford. Although it is a significant commitment by the ACT Government, it is just one part of the $2.5 billion allocated for infrastructure projects over the next four years. To put this light rail investment in context, the territory’s total budgeted general expenditure over the same period is more than $20 billion. The release of the business case coincides with the release of the Capital Metro Invitation for Expressions of Interest and start of the project’s procurement process. The ACT Government is seeking light rail proposals from industry that will meet our customer experience, urban design, community and affordability expectations. The ACT Government is committed to delivering light rail. We are committed to securing Canberra’s future as a great place in which to visit, work and play. The benefits of Capital Metro are many and varied. It will provide new transport options for Canberrans. It will ease ever worsening traffic congestion. It will assist in revitalising the Northbourne Avenue corridor. It will support jobs and our local economy. It will help our city continue to grow comfortably within its constrained borders. Capital Metro is expected to generate economic benefits of almost $1 billion over 30 years. For every dollar we invest we anticipate our community will obtain $1.20 in benefits. Simon Corbell MLA Minister for Capital Metro PAGE 01 $1b benefits Capital Metro through stage one will deliver almost $1 billion* in benefits to our community including: $222 million transport time savings $140 million infrastructure efficiency savings $198 million wider economic benefits $240 million land use benefits $13 million environmental and other benefits $5 million walking and cycling health benefits Over 3,500 jobs supported during construction Journey time 25 minutes or less 1 depot Including stabling, maintenance and office facilities 13 stops Over 15,000 journeys per day in 2021, over 20,000 by 2031 Integrated public transport Free WiFi Every $1 invested delivers $1.20 in economic benefits Frequent and reliable light rail services 13 Stops 2019/20 operations begin. * Based on today’s dollar value (Nett Present Value or NPV) Business Case In Brief PAGE 02 3.0The Project 3.1Route and alignment 3.2Operations Light rail is part of the ACT Government’s strategy to transform Canberra into a truly sustainable city. Light rail will provide Canberrans with better public transport options, reduce car dependency, improve the urban environment and support Canberra’s local economy. Capital Metro is the first stage of a city-wide integrated transport network. The 12km stage one light rail route will link Canberra’s city centre with the fast growing suburbs of Gungahlin via Northbourne Avenue and Flemington Road. The project includes the: • Design and construction of approximately 13 stops, a depot facility, signals, associated road works, preparatory works and landscaping • Design and delivery of light rail vehicles • Ongoing operation and maintenance of the light rail system • Capital Metro will maintain a median alignment along the entire route, using the dedicated transit zone down the middle of Northbourne Avenue set out in the Griffin plans for Canberra. Median alignment is the simplest and fastest solution for light rail, providing clear separation from cars and cyclists while not interfering with access to driveways. Capital Metro stage one will run throughout the day and into the night with high frequency and reliable services, providing a ‘turn up and go’ experience for commuters. The ACT Government’s customer focused approach to Capital Metro will see: • A Gungahlin to City travel time of 25 minutes • Light rail frequency of 10 minutes between 7am and 6pm on weekdays, and more frequently at peak times • Amenities such as free Wi-Fi and on-board bicycle carrying facilities. 3.3A Canberra wide transport network Transport (infrastructure and services) is one of the key priority areas for the ACT Government. The government continues to develop a Canberra wide transport network, comprising roads, cycle and pedestrian networks, park and ride/bike and ride, bus and light rail services. Capital Metro will provide a safe, convenient, attractive, frequent, reliable and affordable service. Seamless integration with walking, cycling, buses and cars is an important priority for the project. Capital Metro will form an integral part of Canberra’s transport network, and will be supported by: • Safe and easy to access for pedestrians • Common ticketing and fare structure with ACTION buses • Integration with bus interchange facilitates in the City, Dickson and Gungahlin Town Centre • Simple and fast connections with buses • Park and ride facilities within easy reach of light rail stops • Bicycle-friendly vehicles and stops. Business Case In Brief PAGE 03 Business Case In Brief PAGE 04 4.0Challenges Facing Canberra 4.1We need future transport capacity As Canberra grows, the need for transport capacity is increasing. Historically Canberra has met this need through substantial investment in roads. Over $1 billion has been spent on road infrastructure in the last 10 years alone. Canberra has developed a high and growing level of car dependency. Only 11% of Canberrans use public transport to commute to work, compared to over 70% who use cars. This has resulted in many negative consequences: • Traffic congestion and slow travel times – in particular along the Northbourne Avenue and Federal Highway corridor. Congestion is expected to worsen in coming years with the rapid growth of Gungahlin and other areas in northern Canberra. By 2031, the peak hour commute from Gungahlin to the City is estimated to take more than 50 minutes if Capital Metro is not built. • Reduced accessibility – individuals who do not own a car face severe mobility difficulties in Canberra, which in turn creates social equity issues. For Canberrans who do not own a car, living in a city with limited public transport alternatives restricts their access to services, employment, shops, social and other activities. • Lost economic productivity – as well as adverse health, environmental and other outcomes. • Public transport infrastructure takes time – we can’t wait until the problem is too bad to fix before we begin. If we want to combat transport issues before they clog the city we need to start now. As it is, the first stage of light rail will not be operating until 2019. To delay would push back any public transport solution until the next decade and any extensions until well into the future. • Canberra has a limited amount of land – to accommodate the increase in population, smarter ways of using available land is needed. Growing outwards is not only expensive but requires extensive areas of land. According to a study by Curtin University it costs 130% more to develop sprawling areas due to the need to deliver more utilities, roads, nearby services and public transport. As Canberra’s population continues to grow it’s important that the city transitions towards higher density living with a focus on high quality urban design. Business Case In Brief PAGE 05 4.2We need sustainable urban re-development Canberra has historically been a city of low density urban sprawl. This leads to higher per capita cost of providing services and utilities, including public transport, water, sewerage, roads, electricity and communications. In addition, urban sprawl threatens social equity, convenient accessibility, liveability and the environmental quality of the city. Canberra’s population reached 381,500 in mid-2013 and is projected to reach over 600,000 by 2050. Together with a finite supply of suitable greenfield developable land within our constrained borders, this population growth is leading to increasing: • Pressure to release land that is currently reserved for environmental purposes, which risks damaging endangered habitats and species • Costs to develop Canberra’s remaining greenfield land • Demand for accommodation in bordering regions. The ACT Government has identified the need for sustainable urban re-development in 2012 ACT Planning Strategy. 4.3We need to diversify the ACT economy Canberra’s largest economic sectors are government administration and defence, representing between one quarter and one third of jobs in the Territory. In June 2011 for example, public sector (public service) jobs represented 51% of all employment in the Territory, with 77% of this employment in the Commonwealth public service and 23% in ACT Government. Reliance on public sector employment makes Canberra’s economy susceptible to shifts in Federal Government administrative policy. With significant recent Federal Government public service job losses, the Territory’s economic growth is projected at 1.75% in 2014/15, which is below the forecast national average. To provide a more robust local economy, there is a need to diversify our local economy. Infrastructure investment is a proven economic stimulus and provides a catalyst for more jobs, investment, improved community facilities and more productive and healthy lifestyles. We estimate Capital Metro will support over 3,500 direct and indirect jobs during construction, and when combined with associated developments, it will have supported around 50,000 jobs by 2047. These jobs will create extra opportunities for businesses and significant economic benefit for the whole of Canberra. 4.4We need to revitalise the gateway to Canberra Northbourne Avenue is the gateway to the nation’s capital with the potential to be an active, vibrant urban boulevard. As a consequence, first impressions of our city are not as favourable as they could be. With light rail along Northbourne Avenue, Canberra becomes more attractive for occupants and visitors alike. This important corridor has the capacity to support higher density mixed use development and provide a welcoming and impressive entrance to the nation’s capital, of which we can all be proud. Capital Metro provides an opportunity for high quality urban renewal along the whole corridor. Business Case In Brief PAGE 06 5.0Benefits of Capital Metro Capital Metro will deliver a variety of transport, economic, land use, environmental, social and other benefits that will be shared by all Canberrans. 5.1Light rail will build alternative transport capacity Capital Metro will provide additional and alternative transport capacity for Canberra. The project is the first stage of a long-term investment program to broaden the transport options available within the city. By 2031, over 20,000 journeys will be made on light rail every day. Weekday daily light rail patronage Time 2021 2031 AM Peak 3,946 5,193 Inter-Peak 4,848 6,587 PM Peak 3,607 5,012 Off Peak 2,718 3,414 TOTAL 15,120 20,207 Over the next 30 years, Capital Metro will: • Reduce Canberra’s high level of car dependency • Increase public transport mode share, anticipated to be over 30% by 2031 • Provide travel time savings of $222 million by reducing traffic congestion and associated costs • Reduce vehicle operating and accident costs by $17 million • Increase walking and cycling resulting in $5 million of health benefits • Provide $13 million of environmental and other benefits • Improve accessibility for the disadvantaged, helping to increase social and economic participation within the ACT • Benefit car users through reduced congestion and fewer buses on Northbourne Avenue • Improve the cycling and pedestrian experience on Northbourne Avenue. 5.2Light rail will support efficient land use and urban renewal In combination with other complementary ACT Government policies, light rail has the potential to drive beneficial land use changes. Capital Metro is expected to accelerate urban densification within the light rail corridor, supporting Canberra’s continued population growth within the Territory’s constrained boundaries. Benefits of densification within the light rail corridor include: • More cost efficient delivery of public infrastructure and services • Increased economic productivity • Reduced carbon emissions • Changing the utilisation of land along the corridor to higher value uses • Over 30 years, land use benefits from light rail are estimated to be $765 million. Business Case In Brief PAGE 07 $72m Urban densification benefits Valenciennes in northern France is a small city with an industrial past and a semi-rural hinterland. The city itself has less than 43,000 inhabitants while the surrounding area has a population of approximately 390,000. $168m Smarter land value benefits $140m Infrastructure efficiency savings In the late 1990s and early 2000s there had been significant local interest in advancing light rail solutions for the region and Phase 1 of Valenciennes’ new tram system was officially opened in 2006. Phase 2 was added in 2007 and the network continues to expand. The success of Valenciennes’ new light rail system shows that smaller cities with a relatively sparsely populated hinterland can benefit from a tram service connecting important sites. $381m Total benefits and cost savings In addition, Capital Metro will act as a catalyst for urban renewal in the rail corridor helping to make Northbourne Avenue a more active and socially connected precinct, and a more fitting gateway to the nation’s capital. Business Case In Brief PAGE 08 5.3Light rail will provide wider economic benefits Capital Metro will provide a range of wider economic benefits for Canberra. Improvements in the transport network as a result of light rail will enhance local economic productivity and growth, create more jobs and increase the diversity and sustainability of the local economy. Over 30 years, wider economic benefits are expected to exceed $198 million. The wider economic benefits of the project have been assessed in accordance with the latest UK guidelines, using Australian evidence and include: • Benefits from bringing workers, employers and suppliers in closer proximity to each other (referred to as ‘agglomeration benefits’) • Benefits from an increase in jobs. EY is a global firm that has advised on some of Australia’s most complex transport and urban transformation projects. Following their appointment to the project, EY has established a presence in Canberra. This is an example of how the Capital Metro project will attract people and businesses to Canberra. 5.4Benefit Cost Analysis A comparison of the project’s benefits and costs results in an anticipated benefit cost ratio (BCR) of 1.2, comprising a transportation and land use BCR of 1.0 and the remainder representing wider economic impacts. This means for every $1 spent there is a return of $1.20. As the BCR is greater than one, the economic analysis anticipates that the project will deliver a net benefit to the ACT community. Summary cost benefit analysis (net present value, $m) Cost Scenario Project Benefits ($ million) Transport Benefits 406 Land Use Benefits 381 Wider Economic Impacts 198 Total Project Benefits 984 Project Costs ($ million) Total Whole of Life Project Costs 823 Project Economic Indicators BCR (transport , land use & WEIs) 1.2 Note: ‘Net present value’ means the value today of the total of all the future costs and benefits associated with the project. This figure was generated in accordance with accepted Australian Industry Guidelines for economic analysis Business Case In Brief PAGE 09 Analysis carried out by EY indicates that the Capital Metro stage one will support over 3,500 jobs during construction, including 1,450 direct and 2,100 indirect jobs. The corridor development element of Capital Metro will deliver additional floor space to accommodate around 26,000 jobs along the corridor. Flow-on jobs from industry and consumption effects results in a total footprint of many thousandsof jobs that will remain long term along the corridor. The full report is available at www.capitalmetro.act.gov.au Business Case In Brief PAGE 10 6.0Project Costs and Risks 6.1The cost of building Capital Metro The estimated cost of constructing the first stage of light rail in Canberra is $610 million plus a $173 million contingency, for a total of $783 million. This estimate includes design, construction, light rail vehicles, and a risk contingency. Capital cost estimate (P75) Cost Area $m Nominal Stops and Precincts 11 Roads and Utilities Infrastructure 118 Rail Alignment 96 Signalling, Rail Systems and Power 137 Depot and Stabling 59 Contractor’s Overhead and Profit 59 Total Construction Cost 479 Rolling Stock – Light rail vehicles 65 Total Alignment Costs 545 Escalation 65 Sub Total 610 Contingency 173 Total Project Outturn Cost 783 The table above does not represent a project budget. It represents an estimate of capital delivery costs only. A project budget will only be finalised following completion of the project’s procurement process. Rounding accounts for any apparent summation errors. The table above does not include ongoing operating costs, ACT Government costs or financing costs. Business Case In Brief The cost estimate is based upon a concept design produced by Capital Metro Agency’s technical advisors and through a risk quantification process. It is a ‘P75’ estimate, which means that sufficient risk provisions have been included to provide a 75% level of confidence in the outcome i.e. that there is a 75% likelihood that the project cost will not be exceeded. This is a widely accepted industry standard for capital infrastructure projects. 6.2The cost of operating Capital Metro Once the system is operational, costs associated with Capital Metro will include amounts for operations, routine maintenance works and major scheduled renewal works. The final operating costs will be determined by the market during the procurement process. However, analysis indicates operational costs will average around $22 million per year (based on today’s dollar value, or NPV), including lifecycle costs required to maintain a sufficient level of operational performance. Under a public-private partnership, regular payments will be made by the ACT Government to its operating and delivery partner over a fixed operating term. These regular payments, known as ‘availability payments,’ take into account capital delivery, operating and financing costs. The size of the availability payments will be determined through the procurement process. 6.3Key project risks All major infrastructure projects involve uncertainty or risk; Capital Metro is no different. Under a public-private partnership, project risks are allocated to the group that is best placed to manage them. For example, risks can be ‘retained’ by the ACT Government, ‘transferred’ to the consortium delivering and operating the light rail (‘Project Co.’), or shared between the two. Where appropriate, risk mitigation strategies will be put into effect. PAGE 11 Key project risks include: Indicative Risk Allocation Territory Project Co Planning approvals Adequacy of utilities relocation and other enabling works Overall management of design interfaces* Design interfaces* with third parties, including territory specified technologies Overall management of construction interfaces* Operational interface* management with third parties Meeting performance requirements and service levels specified by the ACT Government Overall safety risks of passengers/ staff and road users Higher reference interest rates when project finance is rolled over beyond first financing period Patronage risk * Interface relates to interactions/crossing points Although a public-private partnership affords a high degree of risk transfer from the ACT Government to the private sector, it does not involve the transfer of all risks to the private sector. The estimate of risks to be ‘retained’ by the ACT Government versus those to be ‘transferred’ to Project Co. (on a P50, P75 and P90 basis, $m, nominal, including capital expenditure and operational expenditure risk adjustment) is as follows: 400 350 P90 300 Total Risk Adjustment $m 250 P75 P50 200 150 100 50 0 Transferred Retained Business Case In Brief PAGE 12 Private 7.0Why a PPP? Capital Metro will be delivered as an Availability Public-Private Partnership (PPP). Under this model, the design, construction, operations and maintenance of the light rail system is bundled with private sector finance for a proposed operating term. The PPP term is anticipated to cover the construction period plus 20 years of light rail operations. A PPP was identified as the best delivery model for the project following analysis facilitated by Capital Metro Agency’s commercial advisor, market feedback, financial analysis and consideration of other Australian light rail projects. This delivery model has been selected due to the: • Degree of risk transfer it offers compared to other delivery models. This is particularly important given the ACT Government’s lack of familiarity with rail projects of this size or complexity • Heightened degree of cost certainty it offers compared to other delivery models • Greater scope for innovation it offers compared to other delivery models • Quantitative analysis comparing the project’s ‘Public Sector Comparator’ and ‘PPP Proxy’ (discussed below). Under a PPP, the ACT Government only starts making regular ‘availability payments’ when the system is fully operational. Payments continue over the agreed operating term and take into account capital delivery, operating and financing costs. The size of these annual payments will be known at the conclusion of the procurement process. Public 7.1Demonstrating value for money In accordance with ACT Government guidelines, the project’s financial analysis included the development of a ‘Public Sector Comparator’ (PSC) and a ‘PPP Proxy.’ This was undertaken in order to assess the value for money of a PPP compared with traditional government delivery models. The PSC is an estimate of the hypothetical, risk-adjusted, whole-of-life cost of a public infrastructure project that is delivered by traditional public sector procurement methods. Similarly, the PPP Proxy estimates the whole of life costs of the same public infrastructure project, though delivered by the private sector under a PPP model. The estimates include potential service payments to meet construction, financing and lifecycle costs over the operating term. Both the PSC and PPP Proxy estimate the financial impact of risks on the delivery costs of the project over the contract life. The PSC incorporates the value of both transferred and retained risks, whereas the PPP Proxy specifically only considers the value of transferred risks (although the overall cost to Government should include a contingency for retained risks). After taking into consideration the risk adjustment, the PPP Proxy demonstrates an estimated 11% lower cost than the PSC. The analysis supports the recommendation to deliver the project through an Availability PPP. Under a PPP, the ACT Government only starts making regular ‘availability payments’ when the system is fully operational. Business Case In Brief PAGE 13 Comparison of PSC and PPP Proxy ($m NPC) 1,200 1,000 Risk-Adjusted PSC PPP Proxy 800 Total Value $m (NPV) 600 400 200 0 Business Case In Brief PAGE 14 8.0Community Engagement Key outcomes from the market research included: Stakeholders and the community have helped to shape the specifications for the project, including customer requirements and indicative stop locations. Ongoing discussions will help further refine specifications and designs that will be used during the project’s procurement process. During an initial community consultation phase, the project benefited from over 16,500 interactions with the community. The ACT Government is committed to providing the Canberra community with further opportunities to provide ongoing feedback as the project progresses. Feedback from community consultation indicated that: • The community expects a light rail service that is safe, easily accessible and interacts effectively with other modes of transport including cycling, cars and the ACTION bus network 55% 34% 11% • The majority (55%) of Canberrans support the ACT Government’s plans to develop the Capital Metro light rail system; 34% do not and 11% are undecided. • Light rail passengers should be able to take bicycles on board and ensure safe storage at stops • Sustainability is a key priority and driver for the project • The light rail urban design elements need to complement plans for surrounding areas. Further to the community consultation, the Capital Metro Agency has undertaken market research. The research followed a two-step process; the first phase involved members of the community from various demographic categories participating in six separate focus group sessions. The discussion and debate in these sessions helped to inform the second stage, a quantitative telephone survey of almost 1200 residents from across the Territory. Many areas were explored in the telephone survey, including the resident’s views on the future of Northbourne Avenue; the effect light rail may have on public transport use and the perceived issues or benefits for the project. Business Case In Brief 70% 11% 19% • Over 70% of residents commute and travel around Canberra by car; 11% use public buses; 19% use other methods. PAGE 15 9.0Light Rail Master Plan 57% The Gungahlin to City corridor is the first stage of a future light rail network for Canberra. The ACT Government is considering the development of a future light rail light rail network through the Light Rail Master Plan. The draft Light Rail Master Plan will be released for public consultation in early 2015. • The majority (57%) believe they would be more likely to use public transport if it involved a light rail system that is accessible to them. The positive results shown in this Canberrawide survey are very encouraging and they will provide the basis for ongoing tracking. Business Case In Brief PAGE 16 10.0Next Steps The Capital Metro procurement process commenced with the public release of the project’s Invitation for Expressions of Interest. The ACT Government is seeking proposals that meet its customer experience, urban design, community and affordability expectations. Following the competitive procurement process, the successful industry consortium will be appointed in 2016 with light rail operations commencing in 2019/20. The project’s indicative timeline is as follows: Transaction Process Indicative Date / Period Stage 1 – Expressions of Interest phase Expression of Interest issued 31 October 2014 Closing date for submission of EOIs Fourth quarter 2014 EOI evaluation period – shortlisting First – second quarter 2015 Announcement of shortlisted respondents Second quarter 2015 Stage 2 – Request for Proposal phase Release of RFP Second quarter 2015 Submission of proposals Fourth quarter 2015 Evaluation period Fourth quarter 2015 – first quarter 2016 Negotiation period 2016 Financial close 2016 Construction starts 2016 Business Case In Brief PAGE 17 Capital Metro will improve the day-to-day lives of Canberrans by providing a reliable, fast and attractive transport option. Business Case In Brief 13 22 81 @CapitalMetroACT on Twitter Facebook CMAfeedback@act.gov.au GPO Box 158, Canberra ACT 2601 This document is not the Capital Metro full business case. All figures contained in this document are to be read in conjunction with the full business case. capitalmetro.act.gov.au