The Twenty-­‐Eighth AAAI Conference on ArtiAicial Intelligence (AAAI-­‐14, Quebec, Canada) Paper ID: 534 Forecas(ng Poten(al Diabetes Complica(ons Yang Yang, Walter Luyten, Lu Liu, Marie-­‐Francine Moens, Jie Tang, Juanzi Li Tsinghua Univeristy, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Northwestern University •  Diabetes are major causes of early death in most countries and over 68% of diabetes-­‐related mortality is caused by diabetes complica0ons. •  471 billion USD were spent on healthcare for 371 million diabetes pa0ents world-­‐wide in 2012, s0ll 4.8 million people died in 2012 due to diabetes. Input: a pa0ent’s lab test results Bilirubin example Output: diabetes complica0ons Routine urine analysis coronary heart disease diabe(c re(nopathy Proposed Model
Model the joint distribu0on of a given set of lab tests X over complica0on labels Y as Output Layer
Key challenge: feature sparseness Association vector
•  Averagely each clinical record only contains 1.26% of lab tests on average. The feature factor is defined as Latent Layer
•  65.5% types of lab tests are recorded in less than 0.0054% of clinical records. 0.1
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The correla0on factor is defined as 0.4
The correla0on factor is defined as The model alleviates the sparseness issue by projec0ng feature space into a low-­‐dimensional latent space. Forecas0ng Performance
•  SVM and tradi0onal factor graph model suffer from the feature sparseness (-­‐59.9% compared with our method by recall) •  PCA improve the performance. However, it separates sparse coding and classifica0on into two processes. •  Our approach (SparseFGM) outperforms the baselines 20% by F1 •  Dataset: a collec0on of real medical records from a famous geriatric hospital: •  181,933 medical records, 35,525 pa0ents and 1,945 kinds of lab tests. •  On average each clinical record contains 24.43 lab tests (1.26% of all lab tests). •  We consider 3 complica0ons: •  hypertension (HTN), coronary heart disease (CHD), hyperlipidemia (HPL). r.
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Vitamin C
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WBC in the urine typically is found in urinary tract infec0ons which cause frequent voiding, which causes insomnia. Micro-­‐level: associa0on between 10 complica0ons and 9 parameters of rou0ne urine anlaysis discovered by the proposed mode.
Contact: SherlockBourne@gmail.com
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Hyperlipidemia (HPL) can be diagnosed more precisely, while depression (depr.) is usually recognized from psychological inves0ga0on instead of physiological lab tests. 0.77
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Macro-­‐level: study how each complica0on is diagnosable from lab test results. Code & Data: hGp://aminer.org/diabetes
Tsinghua University