Report
The Emergence of Risks:
Contributing Factors
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The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
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Contents
Abbreviations
Preface
Executive summary
02
04
05
I Introduction
II Definitions of terms
III The systems perspective
IV Recognising complexity
V Why risks emerge: contributing factors to fertile ground
VI Twelve generic contributing factors to fertile ground
08
09
12
14
16
18
Factor #1:
Scientific unknowns
18
Factor #2:
Loss of safety margins
22
Factor #3:
Positive feedback
24
Factor #4:
Varying susceptibilities to risk
26
Factor #5:
Conflicts about interests, values and science
28
Factor #6:
Social dynamics
30
Factor #7:
Technological advances
33
Factor #8:
Temporal complications
36
Factor #9:
Communication
39
Factor #10:
Information asymmetries
41
Factor #11:
Perverse incentives
44
Factor #12:
Malicious motives and acts
46
Conclusion and way forward
Glossary
References
Acknowledgements
About IRGC
The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
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Preface
The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) aims to support governments, business and other organisations
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VI Twelve generic contributing factors to
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Factor #2:
Factor #3:
Factor #4:
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Scientific unknowns
Loss of safety margins
Positive feedback
Varying susceptibilities to risk
Conflicts about interests, values
and science
Factor #6: Social dynamics
Factor #7: Technological advances
Factor #8: Temporal complications
Factor #9: Communication
Factor #10: Information asymmetries
Factor #11: Perverse incentives
Factor #12: Malicious motives and acts
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Summary: Dealing with emerging risks almost
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The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
P 23
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international risk governance council
P 24
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The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
P 25
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international risk governance council
P 26
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The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
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The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
international risk governance council
P 28
Factor #5: Conflicts about
interests, values and science
Summary: Public debates about emerging risks
seldom witness a clear separation between
science, values, and interests. The conflicts that
result have the potential to contribute to fertile
ground for risk emergence or amplification. For
example, emerging risks may be amplified when
efforts to assess them and take early management
measures encounter opposition on the grounds of
contested science or incompatible values.
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international risk governance council
The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
P 29
KDYH IDLOHG WR DFKLHYH FRPPXQLW\ FRQVHQVXV DERXW
When emerging risks involve conflicts,
efforts should be made to clarify the
underlying interests and values of
involved parties.
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The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
international risk governance council
P 30
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Factor #6: Social dynamics
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Summary: Social change can lead to potential
harm. In other circumstances it can attenuate
potential harm. It is therefore important for risk
managers to identify, analyse and understand
changing social dynamics.
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international risk governance council
The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
P 31
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While often not directly controllable,
social dynamics may sometimes be
influenced in a way that allows for the
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Summary: Risk may emerge when technological
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The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
international risk governance council
P 38
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The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
P 39
Factor #9: Communication
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Summary: Risks may be complicated or amplified
by untimely, incomplete, misleading or absent
communication. Effective communication that is
open and frank can help to build trust. In many
cases, such communication can attenuate, or
lead to better anticipation and management of,
emerging risks.
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The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
P 41
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Factor #10: Information
asymmetries
Summary: Information asymmetries occur
when some stakeholders hold key information
about a risk that is not available to others. These
asymmetries may be created intentionally or
accidentally. In some cases, the maintenance of
asymmetries can reduce risk, but in others, it can
be the source of risk or the amplification of risk by
creating mistrust and fostering non-cooperative
behaviours.
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P 46
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in a globalised world with highly interconnected
infrastructures (e.g., trade agreements and
information and communication systems) they can
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P 54
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Resolution, 49 (4), 625-633
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The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
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The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors
international risk governance council
international risk governance council
Chemin de Balexert 9
1219 Châtelaine
Geneva Switzerland
tel +41 (0)22 795 17 30
fax +41 (0)22 795 17 39
info@irgc.org
www.irgc.org
© International Risk Governance Council, Geneva, 2010
ISBN 978-2-9700672-7-6
international risk governance council