Workshop on Trends in Oil
Supply/Demand and the
Potential for Peaking of
Conventional Oil Production
National Research Council
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
October 20 & 21, 2005
Supply-Demand Imbalance and
Peaking of Global Oil Production
Key Questions:
What is oil peaking in terms of supply and demand?
Will it happen? When?
Is peaking predictable? Will there be timely warnings?
Can market forces overcome S/D gaps over the next 25-30 years?
What role can non-conv oil, coal, natural gas, and renewables play ?
How much discovered recoverable conventional oil exists?
How much undiscovered conventional oil exists?
Can energy efficiency significantly mitigate the impact of peaking?
Is oil price a significant factor?
Is advanced technology a significant factor?
What lead time is required to significantly mitigate the impact of peaking?
What global actions are required to address potential peaking?
Why is potential peaking a concern and why worry now?
Workshop Agenda
THURSDAY
• 8:00-9:55 a.m. Setting the Stage, Mike Ramage
• 9:55 am-5:15 pm: Future Global Oil
Supply/Demand Balance, Scott Tinker
FRIDAY
• 8:00 am-2:55 pm: Mitigation Options & Time to
Implementation, David Greene
• 3:10-5:00 pm: Potential Follow-up Studies &
Activities, Robert Hirsch
WGOP
Statement of Task:
- Explore the question of global oil production and when
production may peak.
- Review trends in the global and regional energy
markets.
- Include analysts who have recently published such
forecasts.
- Explore options for mitigating the possible serious
economic implications of world oil production peaking
- Identify possible topics for in-depth study that could help
inform U.S. government policy.
OBJECTIVES
• Foster dialogue & communication about
supply/demand trends & the “oil peaking” issue
• Identify key issues that require follow-on studies,
which will be included in a workshop summary
report
• There will be no conclusions/recommendations
or advice given to the government
• Comments & opinions you hear will be those of
individuals, NOT the National Academies