FITZ PARTNERS Investment costs and performance Empirical evidence of UK fund industry delivery August 2016 INVESTMENT COSTS AND PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF UK FUND INDUSTRY DELIVERY CONTENTS Executive Summary 3 Introduction5 Part One: Explicit investment costs for UK All Companies funds Part Two: 20 Comparison of performance in Fitz Partners’ dataset and wider sector sample Appendix C 16 Tables with simple averages Appendix B 12 Performance and realised outcome Appendix A 10 Portfolio turnover, transaction costs and expected shortfall Part Three: 8 22 FTSE Indexes in 2012-2015 Fitz Partners Suite 532, Linen Hall, 162-168 Regent Street, London, W1B 5TF www.fitzpartners.com The Investment Association Camomile Court, 23 Camomile Street, London, EC3A 7LL www.theinvestmentassociation.org @InvAssoc August 2016 © The Investment Association (2016). All rights reserved. No reproduction without permission of The Investment Association. 1 THE INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION INVESTMENT COSTS AND PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF UK FUND INDUSTRY DELIVERY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION, IN CONJUNCTION WITH FITZ PARTNERS, LOOKS AT FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGES, INVESTMENT COSTS AND FUND PERFORMANCE FOR A SAMPLE OF ACTIVE AND PASSIVE EQUITY FUNDS FROM JULY 2012 TO MAY 2015. Using a comprehensive dataset based on 1,350 equity fund accounts, we analyse explicit transaction costs and portfolio turnover rates, as these are reported in these accounts, as well as fund and benchmark returns from Morningstar. For consistency, given the timing of the introduction of the Retail Distribution Review (RDR), we use bundled share classes, which reflect the most expensive consumer experience given the subsequent unbundling of platform and adviser charges. The study is therefore an analysis of total cost of ownership, including distribution and advice. Future research will be able to analyse the cost of investment separately from overall ownership in a post-RDR world. Table 1 shows the results as follows: l Portfolio Turnover Rate, Transaction Costs and Ongoing Charges Figure (OCF). l Expected Shortfall (total transaction costs plus OCF) l Fund Return vs Benchmark Return l Realised Outcome (fund return minus benchmark return) The comparison of Expected Shortfall with Realised Outcome lies at the heart of the methodology in this paper. We argue that all things being equal, if all fund costs are accounted for, one would expect fund returns to fall short of benchmark returns by the sum of transaction costs and the ongoing charges figure. 2 We find that: l On an asset weighted basis, transaction costs across IA equity sectors between 2012 and 2015 were 17 basis points (0.17%), the result of an average portfolio turnover rate of around 40%. l Given an average bundled OCF of 142 basis points (1.42%), one might expect fund returns to fall short of benchmark returns by 159 basis points (the sum of 142 and 17 basis points for the OCF and the transaction costs respectively). l Contrary to this expectation, funds actually covered both ongoing charges and explicit transaction costs and delivered returns higher than that of the benchmark – see Table 1 for a summary of the results split into UK equity and non-UK equity sectors. We are careful not to over-interpret this data given that it is based on a transaction costs database which covers only the period 2012-2015. However, the analysis offers strong empirical evidence of recent industry performance in the context of charges and transaction costs across a large sample of UK funds. The results point to positive performance outcomes and low transaction costs. Our analysis of portfolio turnover rates also contradicts criticisms that fund managers overtrade and that the ensuing transaction costs are several multiples of disclosed charges. It is important to acknowledge that there is one category of cost not included here as it is not yet available on a standardised basis: implicit transaction costs. They will become so in new disclosure documents. There are no other fund management costs unaccounted for in the shortfall calculations or results. However, if implicit costs were significantly damaging investor returns, this would be seen in poor net return data – and our results indicate that this is not the case. 3 THE INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION INVESTMENT COSTS AND PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF UK FUND INDUSTRY DELIVERY INTRODUCTION Using internal IA data as well as data from the Fitz Partners Transaction Fee dataset, Morningstar and Financial Express, we are able to give as comprehensive a picture as possible on fund management charges, investment costs and fund performance. TABLE 1. SUMMARY OF RESULTS (FIGURES EXPRESSED AS A PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE FUND ASSETS) 2012-2013 Portfolio Turnover Transaction Rate Costs OCF Expected Shortfall Fund Return Benchmark Realised Return Outcome Non-UK equity sectors 53.58 0.17 1.53 -1.70 11.96 11.78 0.18 UK equity sectors 28.58 0.17 1.32 -1.49 16.59 15.79 0.80 All equity sectors 41.07 0.17 1.42 -1.59 14.28 13.78 0.49 2013-2014 Portfolio Turnover Transaction Rate Costs OCF Expected Shortfall Fund Return Benchmark Realised Return Outcome Non-UK equity sectors 50.87 0.15 1.54 -1.70 15.11 14.44 0.68 UK equity sectors 29.34 0.19 1.37 -1.56 19.25 15.96 3.29 All equity sectors 40.01 0.17 1.46 -1.63 17.20 15.20 1.99 2014-2015 Portfolio Turnover Transaction Rate Costs OCF Expected Shortfall Fund Return Benchmark Realised Return Outcome Non-UK equity sectors 46.80 0.14 1.46 -1.60 10.03 11.93 -1.90 UK equity sectors 33.73 0.20 1.33 -1.53 6.17 4.94 1.22 All equity sectors 40.40 0.17 1.40 -1.56 8.14 8.51 -0.37 The colour coding of the table is as follows: Fund return higher than benchmark return. Fund return lower than benchmark return, but realised outcome smaller than expected shortfall. Fund return lower than benchmark return, and realised outcome larger than expected shortfall. The costs that affect fund performance are: l Ongoing charges figure (OCF): this relates to the costs of running the fund and covers the management fee and costs such as fund administration, custody, audit, regulator fees etc. l Costs relating to investment activity. These can be explicit and implicit: – Explicit: these relate to real cash paid from the fund to cover costs such as tax and commissions from buying and selling the fund’s investments and are directly quantifiable. – Implicit: these relate to the costs inherent in accessing capital markets, such as the bidoffer spread and market impact, but do not involve an actual transfer of cash out of the fund and are thus not easily quantified. l Other costs: entry and exit costs (one-off and uncommon in the investment fund universe) and performance fees (uncommon in the UK retail market and triggered by certain performance thresholds). STRUCTURE OF THE PAPER The Introduction outlines our main hypothesis and the methodology for interpreting the above costs in the context of performance. The analysis is then presented in three parts: l Part One presents a detailed analysis of investment costs, including transaction costs. l Part Two looks at portfolio turnover and the expected impact of total costs on fund performance. l Part Three explores actual performance in the context of cost quantification. 4 HYPOTHESIS AND METHODOLOGY In a pure academic sense, the level of an index such as the FTSE All Share reflects the collective behaviour of all market participants, including fund managers. The movement of the FTSE All Share provides an indicator of a frictionless (i.e. costless) return over a given period in time. This has a number of implications at a theoretical level for fund managers: l All things being equal, one would expect that aggregate active fund management performance would represent the return of the index net of transaction costs and fees. In other words, unless fund managers as a group are superior (or inferior) investors than other market participants, the academic and wider analytical literature would predict that the sum of transaction costs and fees is the amount by which average fund return would fall short of the index return. l Passive vehicles tracking an index would return the index net of their transaction costs and fees. Any tracking error, positive or negative, in the methodology used to replicate the index would also impact the return. l Adding distribution and advice fees will set a higher performance hurdle, whether the fund is active or passive. However, it is important to note that although these fees impact the performance delivered by the fund manager, the manager does not levy them. Given the points outlined above, we would therefore expect that the sum of the ongoing charges and all explicit and implicit investment costs (expected shortfall) to be equal on average to the difference between the fund net return and the cost-free benchmark return (realised outcome). In other words, if it were true, as some commentators state, that there are hidden fees which are multiples of disclosed costs, the impact ought to be reflected in the average net returns that funds deliver. To test this hypothesis, we look at ongoing charges, total transaction costs, portfolio turnover and fund and benchmark performance across a wide range of investment funds, and then compare the expected shortfall with the realised outcome. 5 THE INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION In conducting this analysis, there are data limitations. Implicit costs are more challenging to quantify than explicit, although the industry is moving towards implementation of further transparency in this area and future analysis is likely to have access to additional data. Based on fund accounts, therefore, we calculate the expected shortfall as the sum of the ongoing charges and explicit transaction costs and realised outcome as the difference between fund net returns and benchmark returns. This has two implications at an aggregate level: l If implicit costs were causing a significant drag on fund returns relative to the benchmark, we would expect that the realised outcome ought to be worse than the expected shortfall. l The data limitations on implicit costs mean that we cannot definitively isolate manager skill from transaction costs. For example, a low net return and realised outcome may indicate poor stock and securities selection and significant implicit transaction costs, or a combination of both these factors. However, one indicator of high transaction costs would be very high portfolio turnover rates (PTR) and our analysis also takes into account PTR and presents this alongside transaction costs. INVESTMENT COSTS AND PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF UK FUND INDUSTRY DELIVERY HEADLINE FINDINGS l Across many equity sectors in recent years, the realised outcome is much better than the expected shortfall. l This finding is reinforced by calculations of both actual transaction costs incurred and portfolio turnover levels. l In the largest sector, UK All Companies, little shortfall is evident in recent years: in other words, returns to investors net of all fees (including advice and distribution) have been strong relative to the benchmark. Transaction costs and portfolio turnover rates are moderate, with the largest component of transaction costs being stamp duty. l Across all equity sectors, most funds either outperformed their benchmarks or they underperformed by far less than fees and transaction costs would indicate. l On an asset-weighted basis, average portfolio turnover was around 40% (simple average around 60%) and average transaction costs amounted to 17 basis points (simple average close to 24 basis points). To express this more concretely, if the OCF is 0.7% and transaction costs are 0.3%, the expected shortfall would be -1% (the sum of 0.7% and 0.3%, expressed negatively as a drag on return). This means that we would expect that on average fund net returns fall short of the benchmark returns by at least 1%, given that this excludes implicit costs such as the bid-offer spread and market impact. So if the expected shortfall is -1% and assuming that the benchmark has returned 6% over a year there are four possibilities: 1 If the relevant fund universe returns 5% net of all fees and costs, then the realised outcome is -1% (the difference between 5% and 6%) and equals the expected shortfall. 2 If the fund universe returns 5.5%, the realised outcome is -0.5% (the difference between 5.5% and 6%) and so it is better than the expected shortfall but not as good as the (costless) benchmark return. 3 If the fund universe returns 6.5%, the realised outcome is +0.5% (the difference between 6.5% and 6%) and is not only better than the expected shortfall but it beats the benchmark return. 4 If the fund universe returns 4.5%, the realised outcome is -1.5% (the difference between 6% and 4.5%) and worse than the expected shortfall. There may be a number of reasons for this, including manager performance and/ or high implicit costs. In conclusion, although the analysis is not based on long-term historical data, empirical evidence from recent years does indicate that fund managers can deliver positive performance and low transaction costs. Indeed, if it were the case that investors were systematically suffering from poor active management, excessive trading and ‘hidden’ implicit transaction costs, we would expect to find poor realised outcomes as well as very high portfolio turnover levels and, as in previous research1, the results clearly do not show this. Although the analysis is on equity funds, as reporting of transaction cost data improves, this approach can be extended beyond the equity fund universe e.g. to include fixed income funds for which transaction costs are largely, if not entirely, implicit. DATA The analysis is based on the Fitz Partners Transaction Fee dataset published in October 2015. This includes data from annual reports of open and closed, active and tracker funds across all IA sectors. Active funds represent approximately 91% of the assets in the dataset, however within the IA equity sectors this proportion drops to 87%. The annual reports date from 2011 to mid-2015 and include information on transaction costs (a further breakdown into tax and commissions is carried out for UK All Companies funds), average fund assets, and portfolio turnover rates. We completed this dataset with ongoing charges data as well as monthly fund total net return series from Morningstar – both based on the ‘old’ primary share class of each fund, which most commonly is the highest charging bundled share class, thus accounting for the total cost of ownership (that is including the cost of investment management, advice and distribution). We used Financial Express ongoing charges data where this was not available from Morningstar. Also from Morningstar we sourced monthly benchmark return series, matching the available fund return series. To include funds for which no benchmark information was available, we took the most commonly used primary prospectus benchmark in each IA sector and applied that to all funds of that sector. Fund performance was calculated as the cumulative monthly return in the 12 months covered by the annual report so as to match exactly the period over which transaction costs were reported. Where the fund existed for less than a year, the cumulative return has been annualised. Benchmark performance was calculated in the exact same way. Moreover, funds under management data was sourced from the IA’s internal dataset in order to estimate the size of each sector and that of the primary share classes as well as to assist with the calculation of asset weighted averages. In our analysis we considered all equity funds for which the Fitz Partners’ dataset had transaction cost information. This restricted the sample to 1,350 accounts for funds across 16 IA equity sectors, representing approximately 56% of total funds under management. Since the latest report in the dataset was for the year ended in May 2015, we separated the data into three different periods: July 2012 – June 2013; July 2013 – June 2014; July 2014 – May 2015. This ensured that each fund was included only once in each period and resulted in more comparable sample sizes (as opposed to distributing based on calendar year-ends). The funds were distributed as follows: 387 funds in 2012-2013; 504 funds in 2013-2014; 459 funds in 2014-2015. In terms of funds under management, the top 5 sectors were UK All Companies (representing ca. 25% of funds and 35% of FUM), Global, UK Equity Income, Europe exc. UK, and North America. The bottom 5 sectors were: Japanese Smaller Companies, North American Smaller Companies, China/Greater China, Asia Pacific inc. Japan, and Europe inc. UK. IMA, Fund Management Charges, Investment Costs and Performance, London 2012. 1 6 7 THE INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION INVESTMENT COSTS AND PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF UK FUND INDUSTRY DELIVERY PART ONE: EXPLICIT INVESTMENT COSTS FOR UK ALL COMPANIES FUNDS Using Fitz Partners data taken from funds’ annual long reports, we can measure the total net investment costs. These are the total investment costs net of income generated from activities that do not relate directly to the fund’s investments. The components are: l Income, disclosed in the notes to the financial statements under the revenue section: – Stocklending: revenue generated from stock lending activity – Underwriting: revenue generated from underwriting activity l Total investment cost: – Transaction costs: disclosed under the notes to the financial statements. For our analysis of UK All Companies funds, these are further broken down into tax and commissions. – Bank interest: interest received on cash amounts held at bank This detailed breakdown was carried out for the UK All Companies funds – as mentioned, the largest sector in the sample – to explore the magnitude of the different components of explicit investment costs. The simple and weighted average figures are shown in Table 2, revealing a number of points. – Schedule 19 SDRT: disclosed under the statement of change in net assets attributable to shareholders. This was relevant when a fund was invested in UK equities and investors redeemed their units in UK unit trust schemes or shares in UK OEICs. This tax was abolished on 30 March 2014.2 First, total investment costs are about 30 basis points (bps) on average and 19 bps on an asset weighted average basis. This indicates that most assets (and hence the more representative consumer experience) are in funds with lower investment costs. Explicit transaction costs are by far the largest component of total investment costs, and of that, approximately two thirds are tax and one third commission. – Finance costs (interest): disclosed under the statement of total return. This is the overdraft interest paid when bank accounts are overdrawn (the funds in this analysis are permitted to borrow in short term temporary form). TABLE 2: EXPLICIT INVESTMENT COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE FUND ASSETS – UK ALL COMPANIES Simple average 0.30 0.29 0.25 Tax 0.19 0.19 0.17 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.080.100.13 0.060.060.07 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.02 Finance costs: interest 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 Total investment costs 0.33 0.33 0.27 0.19 0.20 0.21 Stocklending revenue 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.000.00 Underwriting revenue 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.000.000.00 Bank interest 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.000.000.00 Income 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.010.01 Net investment costs 0.32 0.18 3 8 0.26 0.19 0.20 HM Revenue & Customs, Abolition of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax for collective investment schemes, March 2014. This tax is included in the 2014-2015 figures as some funds had incurred it in the first months of the year ended between July 2014 and February 2015 and it thus showed on their accounts. Figures may not add up due to rounding. Weighted average 2012-2013 2013-20142014-2015 ActiveTracker Transaction costs 0.17 Active Tracker Active Tracker 0.05 0.19 0.05 0.23 0.04 Tax0.09 0.01 0.11 0.03 0.14 0.04 Commission0.07 0.01 0.07 0.00 0.08 0.00 Schedule 19 SDRT 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 Finance costs: interest 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total investment costs 0.22 0.08 0.24 0.08 0.25 0.06 Stocklending revenue 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 Underwriting revenue 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Bank interest 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Income 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.01 Net investment costs 0.21 0.23 0.24 0.07 0.07 0.05 2012-20132013-2014 2014-2015 Schedule 19 SDRT 2 TABLE 3: EXPLICIT INVESTMENT COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE FUND ASSETS – UK ALL COMPANIES ACTIVE VS. TRACKER FUNDS4 3 Commission 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.32 A further breakdown of the UK All Companies sample into active and tracker funds shows that investment costs in active funds are approximately 23 bps compared to 6 bps for tracker funds – see Table 3. Unsurprisingly, the main difference lies in the transaction costs. Stocklending revenue, albeit low, is slightly larger for tracker funds. Weighted average 2012-20132013-20142014-2015 Transaction costs The Schedule 19 SDRT tax, already very low at around 4 bps in 2012-2014, almost halved in 20142015 and will not be relevant in the future. Income is very low at 1 bp. It should also be noted that at a maximum, stocklending revenue was 5 bps, underwriting revenue 6 bps and bank interest 3 bps. As transaction costs constitute the largest part of investment costs, it is the only component that is considered for the other equity sectors. Moreover, the rest of the analysis is carried out on asset weighted averages but the results with the simple averages are reported in Appendix A. As indicated earlier, we do not include in the analysis the following costs: l Entry charges: these have historically been connected to unit holding administration, marketing and/or advice costs and are frequently heavily – or totally – discounted by distributors. Moreover, they have been reduced since RDR. l Exit charges: these are imposed by few funds and are limited to early redemptions. l Performance fees: these apply mostly to institutional clients and not retail funds that form the basis of this analysis and have also become less prominent across the industry.5 Entry and exit charges are one-off costs and although relevant for the investor experience, their effect on the overall outcome is small and does not reflect what is happening on an ongoing basis. Performance fees can be recurring but they are out of scope because they incur only when the fund outperforms a specified benchmark in the first place. Figures may not add up due to rounding. The Investment Association, Asset Management in the UK 2014-15, London 2015. 4 5 9 THE INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION INVESTMENT COSTS AND PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF UK FUND INDUSTRY DELIVERY PART TWO: PORTFOLIO TURNOVER, TRANSACTION COSTS AND EXPECTED SHORTFALL Transaction costs relate to the investment activity and occur with every purchase and sale of an investment within a portfolio. As returns are the outcome of the investment activity within any given time, performance and transaction costs are effectively inseparable. The explicit (and easily quantifiable) component of transaction costs consists of commission, which is the fee paid to brokers for facilitating the trade, and tax. The portfolio turnover rate is an indicator of portfolio trading activity and reflects roughly the percentage of the portfolio holdings that have changed within a specified period. In our analysis, we use the SEC definition which calculates portfolio turnover as the ratio of the lesser of purchases or sales within a portfolio over the monthly average value of that portfolio. Transaction costs and portfolio turnover are positively connected, i.e. the higher the portfolio turnover, the higher the transaction costs. However, this relationship is not necessarily linear. For example, economies of scale can be achieved for the amount of commission paid, depending on the size of the trade. It is also worthwhile to note that, within an investment fund, part of the turnover (and thus the resulting transaction costs) relates to events that are not connected to pure investment decision making. These events can include investor flows, e.g. fund inflows that need to be invested, re-investment of income and/or capital gains, or it could be portfolio rebalancing to reflect the changing composition of a market index (particularly relevant for tracker funds). for active funds at about 33% and for tracker funds at 11%. There is also variability from year to year, for example North America turnover fluctuated from almost 74% in the first period to 52% in the second and then up to 62% in the last. Although there could be further variability within each sector, we can see that on average, and particularly on an asset weighted basis, there is no evidence that fund managers overtrade. This amount of turnover would also indicate that implicit costs are unlikely to be excessive – a point explored further in the performance analysis later on. Although data limitations mean that we are unable to quantify implicit costs, portfolio turnover rates are a good indicator of what to expect, i.e. the higher the turnover the larger the implicit transaction costs can be. Table 4 shows that across the IA equity sectors, the average portfolio turnover rate (PTR) is about 40%. There is variability within this, for example the China and Europe inc. UK sectors have much higher turnover than the UK equity sectors. UK All Companies turnover is around 28%, with turnover Transaction costs (TC) are on average 17 bps – by far not the multiple of fund charges as is sometimes stated in the public debate. Moreover, it is more expensive to trade in some sectors such as China than the very liquid market of e.g. North America. Active UK All Companies funds have on average transaction costs of 19 bps compared to 5 bps for tracker funds. This clearly contradicts claims often made that trading costs amount to several multiples of fund fees, as can also be seen from the comparison with average ongoing charges (OCF) which across all equity sectors are on average 142 bps and for UK All Companies specifically slightly lower at 122 bps. As a reminder, both active and tracker funds are included in the analysis but the majority of funds (over 85%) are actively managed and so the results are not driven by the tracker funds. According to our hypothesis, the sum of transaction costs and ongoing charges is the amount by which we would expect average fund returns to fall short of the benchmark return – as long as there are no ‘hidden’ costs. So across all IA equity sectors, we would expect fund return to fall short of the benchmark return by around 160 bps. The expected shortfall is larger in some sectors where it is both more expensive to trade and to invest in a fund such as China/Greater China where fund returns would be expected to be on average 220 bps lower than benchmark returns. In contrast, we would expect active UK All Companies funds to fall short of their benchmark by about 170 bps and tracker funds (that trade less and have lower fees) by around 41 bps. TABLE 4: PORTFOLIO TURNOVER RATE, TRANSACTION COSTS AND EXPECTED SHORTFALL Weighted average 2012-2013 2013-20142014-2015 Expected Expected Expected Sector PTR TC OCF Shortfall PTR TC OCF Shortfall PTR TC OCF Shortfall Asia Pacific Exc. Japan Asia Pacific Inc. Japan China/Greater China Europe Exc. UK Europe Inc. UK European Smaller Companies Global Global Emerging Markets Global Equity Income Japan Japanese Smaller Companies North America North Am. Smaller Companies UK All Companies UK All Companies - Active UK All Companies - Tracker UK Equity Income UK Smaller Companies 38.69 18.54 92.47 64.60 94.67 75.69 53.50 35.35 27.07 39.52 50.23 73.74 70.19 25.31 29.26 9.93 34.04 33.03 0.211.56-1.77 0.09 1.81 -1.89 0.591.82-2.41 0.16 1.48 -1.64 0.32 1.76 -2.08 0.27 1.66 -1.93 0.161.60-1.75 0.18 1.71 -1.89 0.14 1.63 -1.77 0.070.98-1.05 0.12 1.75 -1.87 0.131.36-1.49 0.21 1.72 -1.93 0.14 1.15 -1.29 0.17 1.43 -1.60 0.05 0.39 -0.43 0.23 1.58 -1.80 0.221.61-1.83 36.930.18 1.59 -1.77 18.50 0.09 1.80 -1.90 88.400.51 1.80 -2.30 64.22 0.17 1.60 -1.78 71.22 0.28 1.69 -1.97 66.71 0.23 1.66 -1.89 49.600.13 1.63 -1.76 38.05 0.19 1.81 -1.99 52.16 0.19 1.66 -1.85 50.130.11 1.39 -1.50 55.17 0.13 1.74 -1.87 51.540.10 1.02 -1.12 64.84 0.15 1.71 -1.86 25.12 0.16 1.25 -1.41 29.70 0.19 1.52 -1.71 10.03 0.05 0.36 -0.41 37.08 0.24 1.57 -1.81 36.910.25 1.62 -1.87 37.310.17 1.52 -1.69 19.82 0.09 1.84 -1.93 43.780.30 1.79 -2.09 60.91 0.16 1.31 -1.47 84.24 0.19 1.70 -1.90 40.25 0.16 1.68 -1.84 41.200.12 1.63 -1.75 26.25 0.16 1.70 -1.86 43.51 0.15 1.63 -1.78 41.630.09 1.12 -1.20 45.77 0.09 1.73 -1.82 62.190.14 1.04 -1.18 61.56 0.13 1.69 -1.82 34.26 0.19 1.25 -1.43 39.74 0.23 1.55 -1.78 13.19 0.04 0.35 -0.39 32.02 0.21 1.53 -1.74 34.950.21 1.59 -1.80 TOTAL 41.07 0.171.42-1.59 40.010.17 1.46 -1.63 40.400.17 1.40 -1.56 10 11 THE INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION INVESTMENT COSTS AND PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF UK FUND INDUSTRY DELIVERY PART THREE: PERFORMANCE AND REALISED OUTCOME The analysis above has demonstrated that equity funds do not have high levels of turnover and that transaction costs are far from being the several multiples of charges as has been implied in the public debate. The moderate portfolio turnover rates indicated that one would not expect implicit costs to be excessive. However, the effect of both trading and implicit costs will be reflected on fund returns and the realised outcome, i.e. the difference between average fund returns and benchmark returns. Table 5 shows for each IA equity sector the average fund return, the corresponding benchmark return and their difference in the “Realised outcome” column. This is then compared to the expected shortfall figure – which is the sum of explicit transaction costs and ongoing charges from Table 4. charges and the transaction costs. In 2014-2015 funds underperformed the benchmark but only by 37 bps – far less than the expected shortfall of 156 bps. Our hypothesis was that if there are ‘hidden’ costs we would expect the realised outcome to be much worse than the expected shortfall, or in other words that the average fund return would fall short of the benchmark return by much more than the sum of ongoing charges and transaction costs. We can observe that on average across all IA equity sectors, funds outperformed their benchmark in 2012-2014 so that the realised outcome is positive, i.e. fund outperformance overcompensated both the ongoing It should also be observed that, as noted earlier, this analysis is based on bundled share classes, thus reflecting the least favourable scenario in terms of cost and the overall investor experience as in the pre-RDR world, the fund OCF included both platform and advice costs. In other words, fund manager performance against the benchmark is analysed not simply relative to the fund manager’s fees but the fees of others in the delivery chain. This is helpful from a perspective of ‘total cost of ownership’, but not from a perspective of ‘total cost of investment’ against delivery of investment objective. Post-RDR it should be possible to measure much more clearly fund manager delivery which will help to inform the value for money debate and the results would be even better using the new unbundled pricing of the ‘new’ primary share classes. However, it is important to note how much the industry has delivered with the total cost of ownership and to consider that it remains a common practice when discussing returns in bundled pension arrangements (e.g. personal pension, GPP, stakeholder) to judge investment delivery against the bundled cost of ownership, which contains TABLE 5: PERFORMANCE AND REALISED OUTCOME Sector Weighted average 2012-2013 2013-20142014-2015 FundBenchmark Realised Expected FundBenchmark RealisedExpected FundBenchmark Realised Expected Return Return 0utcome Shortfall Return Return 0utcome Shortfall Return Return 0utcome Shortfall Asia Pacific Exc. Japan 6.33 4.80 1.53-1.77 5.27 3.63 1.65-1.77 9.48 11.41-1.93-1.69 Asia Pacific Inc. Japan -0.14 -4.77 4.63 -1.89 19.5521.95-2.40-1.90 3.03 2.620.40-1.93 China/Greater China 6.57 3.40 3.17-2.41 17.55 6.24 11.31-2.30 7.10 9.21-2.11-2.09 Europe Exc. UK 19.90 18.96 0.93 -1.64 18.6920.59-1.90-1.78 4.86 5.04-0.18-1.47 Europe Inc. UK 18.51 20.49 -1.99 -2.08 23.0320.03 3.00-1.97 8.76 6.352.42-1.90 European Smaller Companies 17.81 14.52 3.28 -1.93 25.5333.47-7.94-1.89 4.72 5.35-0.64-1.84 Global 11.8813.02 -1.14 -1.75 15.8414.01 1.83-1.76 11.10 13.13-2.02-1.75 Global Emerging Markets 4.79 -2.12 6.91-1.89 -0.97 0.35-1.32-1.99 5.13 6.71-1.59-1.86 Global Equity Income 16.56 18.90 -2.35 -1.77 18.6915.96 2.73-1.85 9.33 12.10-2.77-1.78 Japan 3.153.140.01 -1.05 25.7520.88 4.86-1.50 8.05 11.34-3.29-1.20 Japanese Smaller Companies -12.88 -1.86-11.03 -1.87 41.0725.01 16.06-1.87 5.63 5.190.43-1.82 North America 14.58 18.10 -3.52 -1.49 19.2018.78 0.42-1.12 19.17 22.68-3.51-1.18 North Am. Smaller Companies 16.62 19.99 -3.37 -1.93 22.4823.98-1.50-1.86 8.28 12.30-4.01-1.82 UK All Companies 16.4115.21 1.20-1.29 20.2616.08 4.17-1.41 5.82 4.89 0.93-1.43 UK All Companies Active 16.50 14.71 1.79 -1.60 22.08 16.53 5.55 -1.71 5.91 4.64 1.27 -1.78 UK All Companies - Tracker 16.10 16.84 -0.74 -0.43 13.86 14.51 -0.65 -0.41 5.53 5.62 -0.09 -0.39 UK Equity Income 16.87 16.34 0.53 -1.80 15.1012.94 2.15-1.81 7.86 5.632.22-1.74 UK Smaller Companies 17.05 19.79 -2.74 -1.83 30.8331.93-1.10-1.87 2.58 2.250.33-1.80 TOTAL 14.2813.78 0.49-1.59 17.2015.20 1.99-1.63 8.14 8.51-0.37-1.56 The colour coding of the table is as follows: Fund return higher than benchmark return. Fund return lower than benchmark return, but realised outcome smaller than expected shortfall. Fund return lower than benchmark return, and realised outcome larger than expected shortfall. 12 13 THE INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION multiple other elements, including administration, communication and governance.6 Across the 16 sectors for these three periods, in 25 instances the average sector return was higher than the benchmark return (green colour-coded) and in 8 instances the realised outcome was negative but less so than the expected shortfall (yellow colourcoded). In 15 cases the realised outcome was more negative than the expected shortfall (red colourcoded) but in 10 out of these the difference was less than 1 percentage point. In the UK All Companies sector in particular, we see that funds outperformed the benchmark (for this sector this is the FTSE All Share index) and this was due to active funds having on average higher returns than the average benchmark return – especially in the 2013-2014 period where most sectors performed well. Tracker funds on the other hand underperformed the index by a little more than the expected shortfall – 31 bps more than expected in 2012-2013 and 24 bps in 2013-2014. In the last period, tracker funds underperformed but by less than the expected shortfall. INVESTMENT COSTS AND PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF UK FUND INDUSTRY DELIVERY Appendix B shows the averages over the three periods for the Fitz Partners’ dataset and for the wider sector sample. Although there are some differences for the smallest sectors such as Asia Pacific exc. and inc. Japan or China/Greater China, we see that the largest sectors including the three UK equity sectors still either outperformed or underperformed by less than expected. Moreover, in total across all equity sectors, funds were still able to deliver higher returns than the benchmark. On the whole, the wider sector results reiterate what we found with the Fitz Partners’ dataset, i.e. for most sectors, there is no evidence to support criticisms against the industry that there are ‘hidden’ costs and, on the contrary, fund managers were able to deliver returns that not only covered all costs and charges but they also outperformed the benchmark. Given that our sample covers approximately 56% of the total FUM of these equity sectors over 20122015, using Morningstar data, we repeated the analysis on all funds within each sector for which we could obtain monthly net return data. As we did not have transaction cost data for this wider sample, we assumed that the averages estimated above hold. Moreover, due to lack of any information about the timing of these funds’ annual accounts, we calculated fund returns in the same way as before, but this time we did so from July to June for all funds. As a result, the period over which we calculated fund and benchmark returns does not coincide with that over which transaction costs are reported and caution is needed in interpreting the results. 6 DRIVERS OF PERFORMANCE It is interesting to discuss the performance results in the context of what theory would predict and particularly the point that market indexes reflect the decisions of all market participants, and so the idea that the average fund manager could either outperform or underperform the index may sound mathematically impossible. There are three sets of issues to consider in this context: l Relative group performance l Stock selection l Investing outside any given sector First, fund managers are one group among many other participants in the market which would include hedge funds, high frequency traders, individuals etc. Particularly in the UK equity market, we estimate that fund managers own approximately 30% of public UK equity and account for around 40% of market trading. The managers running the funds in Fitz Partners’ dataset represent only a proportion rather than the total investor base which is collectively responsible for the return of the benchmark. The results in Tables 5 (and Appendix B) would point to fund managers outperforming while other market participants underperform the market. Another factor is that active managers can stockpick, for example by overweighing companies that are undervalued or that have growth potential etc. In the context of the UK All Companies sector, the mid-cap FTSE 250 outperformed both the FTSE All Share and the FTSE 350 indexes during the period under consideration, i.e. 2012-2015 – see Appendix C – so managers could have overweighed midcap companies and thus outperformed the FTSE All Share index. One could suggest that perhaps this is due to the methodology explained earlier in the paper of applying the most commonly used benchmark in each equity sector across all funds of that sector – which for UK All Companies funds was the FTSE All Share index. Since, however, 88% of the UK All Companies assets in the sample had the FTSE All Share as primary prospectus benchmark compared to only 4% of assets that were benchmarked against the FTSE 250, this would not be able to explain the sector’s outperformance. There is also the possibility of fund managers investing outside any given benchmark. In this particular case, the IA sector classification criteria most commonly require that a fund invests at least 80% of portfolio assets in the corresponding asset class to be classified within a sector. For example, a UK All Companies fund would be at least 80% invested in UK (public) equity. IA sector monitoring data would indicate that funds in all equity sectors invest on average over 90% of their assets in their respective markets, the only exception being the Global Emerging Markets sector with this figure at around 88%. Consequently, investing outside the benchmark could be a factor but only to a limited extent. So overall, while we recognise that this is a relatively short-run dataset, the analysis over four years shows that on an asset-weighted basis, there is no evidence that there are significant hidden costs damaging investor outcomes. Quite the opposite, the results would suggest a positive industry delivery across these equity sectors compared to other market participants. At the time of the analysis, we could not accurately identify the new primary share class for all funds in the sample but future work is going to address this point. 14 15 THE INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION INVESTMENT COSTS AND PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF UK FUND INDUSTRY DELIVERY APPENDIX A: TABLES WITH SIMPLE AVERAGES A: EXPLICIT INVESTMENT COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE FUND ASSETS IN THE UK ALL COMPANIES SECTOR Simple average 2012-2013 ActiveTracker Transaction costs 2013-20142014-2015 ActiveTracker ActiveTracker 0.330.04 0.330.04 0.280.05 Tax 0.210.02 0.210.03 0.180.05 Commission 0.130.01 0.130.00 0.100.00 0.03 0.02 0.02 Schedule 19 SDRT 0.04 0.03 0.01 Finance costs: interest 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total investment costs 0.37 0.09 0.35 0.07 0.30 0.06 Stocklending revenue 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 Underwriting revenue 0.010.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 Bank interest 0.010.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 Income 0.010.01 0.010.01 0.010.00 Net investment costs 0.36 0.34 0.30 0.07 0.07 0.06 B: PORTFOLIO TURNOVER RATE, TRANSACTION COSTS AND EXPECTED SHORTFALL Simple average 2012-2013 2013-20142014-2015 Expected Expected Expected Sector PTR TC OCF Shortfall PTR TC OCF Shortfall PTR TCOCF Shortfall Asia Pacific Exc. Japan Asia Pacific Inc. Japan China/Greater China Europe Exc. UK Europe Inc. UK European Smaller Cos Global Global Emerging Markets Global Equity Income Japan Japanese Smaller Cos North America North Am. Smaller Cos UK All Companies UK All Companies - Active UK All Companies - Tracker UK Equity Income UK Smaller Companies 59.66 24.21 70.52 88.13 95.36 58.04 60.17 47.78 56.74 68.35 50.55 74.87 72.02 40.86 45.86 7.50 47.51 37.48 0.28 1.58 -1.86 0.08 1.69 -1.77 0.521.76-2.28 0.22 1.56 -1.78 0.32 1.75 -2.07 0.23 1.68 -1.90 0.171.62-1.79 0.27 1.59 -1.85 0.28 1.77 -2.05 0.101.46-1.56 0.12 1.60 -1.71 0.111.51-1.63 0.20 1.71 -1.91 0.30 1.44 -1.73 0.33 1.52 -1.85 0.04 0.90 -0.95 0.33 1.55 -1.88 0.29 1.60 -1.89 64.32 0.33 1.62 -1.95 22.14 0.09 1.67 -1.76 60.530.42 1.76 -2.18 71.17 0.22 1.57 -1.79 87.06 0.31 1.72 -2.02 79.10 0.27 1.67 -1.94 57.500.17 1.58 -1.75 59.91 0.32 1.74 -2.06 54.33 0.20 1.63 -1.83 84.100.16 1.51 -1.67 79.87 0.18 1.66 -1.84 65.900.12 1.49 -1.61 73.09 0.16 1.69 -1.85 37.79 0.29 1.40 -1.68 42.38 0.33 1.51 -1.84 11.27 0.04 0.75 -0.80 52.69 0.36 1.58 -1.94 38.68 0.30 1.60 -1.90 51.10 0.24 1.54 -1.78 19.47 0.08 1.70 -1.77 53.470.38 1.73 -2.12 68.68 0.20 1.50 -1.70 100.53 0.29 1.69 -1.98 68.25 0.25 1.67 -1.91 54.960.15 1.54 -1.69 60.88 0.30 1.70 -2.00 48.56 0.16 1.65 -1.81 70.510.13 1.43 -1.56 63.94 0.13 1.66 -1.79 68.210.11 1.45 -1.56 70.93 0.13 1.68 -1.81 38.94 0.25 1.42 -1.67 42.58 0.28 1.51 -1.79 14.39 0.05 0.81 -0.86 41.92 0.30 1.54 -1.83 36.84 0.23 1.56 -1.79 TOTAL 59.52 0.241.62-1.85 61.760.24 1.62 -1.86 57.320.21 1.59 -1.80 16 17 THE INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION INVESTMENT COSTS AND PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF UK FUND INDUSTRY DELIVERY C: PERFORMANCE AND REALISED OUTCOME Sector Simple average Fund Return 2012-2013 2013-20142014-2015 BenchmarkRealised Expected Fund BenchmarkRealised Expected Fund Benchmark Realised Expected Return 0utcome Shortfall Return Return 0utcome Shortfall Return Return 0utcome Shortfall Asia Pacific Exc. Japan 11.20 11.05 0.15-1.86 2.36 1.43 0.93-1.95 11.3612.25-0.89-1.78 Asia Pacific Inc. Japan 9.94 11.43 -1.48 -1.77 11.3511.12 0.23-1.76 11.59 9.56 2.03-1.77 China/Greater China 8.30 6.841.46-2.28 11.69-0.1911.88-2.18 16.1926.46 -10.27-2.12 Europe Exc. UK 17.55 16.05 1.51 -1.78 21.6921.53 0.16-1.79 3.17 5.22-2.06-1.70 Europe Inc. UK 18.77 20.40 -1.63 -2.07 16.2913.68 2.61-2.02 7.84 6.21 1.63-1.98 European Smaller Companies 11.00 3.40 7.59 -1.90 30.9835.55 -4.56-1.94 4.35 5.90-1.56-1.91 Global 12.7213.30-0.58 -1.79 16.0414.13 1.91-1.75 10.8612.35-1.49-1.69 Global Emerging Markets 8.17 7.35 0.83-1.85 -6.28-6.48 0.21-2.06 8.8310.46-1.64-2.00 Global Equity Income 12.30 10.48 1.82 -2.05 13.0712.81 0.26-1.83 9.4412.51-3.07-1.81 Japan 6.367.05-0.69 -1.56 18.5915.63 2.95-1.67 7.6310.95-3.33-1.56 Japanese Smaller Companies 17.66 12.87 4.79 -1.71 22.5613.01 9.55-1.84 15.9813.07 2.91-1.79 North America 16.19 19.81 -3.63 -1.63 16.9017.03 -0.13-1.61 18.6321.74-3.11-1.56 North Am. Smaller Companies 17.84 21.39 -3.55 -1.91 26.5226.48 0.03-1.85 11.9613.61-1.65-1.81 UK All Companies 15.9714.10 1.87-1.73 20.8615.53 5.33 -1.68 4.68 5.17-0.50-1.67 UK All Companies Active 16.00 13.61 2.39 -1.85 22.09 15.60 6.49 -1.84 4.63 5.12 -0.48 -1.79 UK All Companies - Tracker 15.78 17.27 -1.49 -0.95 14.04 15.16 -1.13 -0.80 4.94 5.55 -0.61 -0.86 UK Equity Income 13.73 12.29 1.44 -1.88 19.1815.63 3.54-1.94 6.66 4.98 1.69-1.83 UK Smaller Companies 19.62 21.75 -2.13 -1.89 30.0729.76 0.32-1.90 3.62 3.08 0.54-1.79 TOTAL 13.5813.10 0.49-1.85 16.9914.79 2.20 -1.86 9.55 10.85-1.30-1.80 18 19 THE INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION INVESTMENT COSTS AND PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF UK FUND INDUSTRY DELIVERY APPENDIX B: COMPARISON OF PERFORMANCE IN FITZ PARTNERS’ DATASET AND WIDER SECTOR SAMPLE Fitz Partners’ dataset - 3 period average Sector Fund BenchmarkRealisedExpected Return Return Outcome Shortfall Asia Pacific Exc. Japan 7.03 6.61 Asia Pacific Inc. Japan 7.48 China/Greater China Wider sector sample - 3 period average Sector Fund BenchmarkRealisedExpected Return Return Outcome Shortfall 0.42-1.74 Asia Pacific Exc. Japan 11.32 11.58 -0.26-1.52 6.60 0.88-1.91 Asia Pacific Inc. Japan 11.69 14.17 -2.48-1.81 10.41 6.28 4.12-2.27 China/Greater China 20.75 21.55 -0.80-2.25 Europe Exc. UK 14.48 14.87 -0.38-1.63 Europe Exc. UK 18.89 17.37 1.53-1.59 Europe Inc. UK 16.77 15.63 1.14-1.98 Europe Inc. UK 17.38 15.00 2.39-1.37 European Smaller Companies 16.02 17.78 -1.76-1.88 European Smaller Cos 21.08 21.57 -0.49-1.88 Global 12.9413.39 -0.45-1.75 Global 16.8715.57 1.30-1.53 Global Emerging Markets 2.98 1.65 1.33-1.91 Global Emerging Markets 5.43 5.93 -0.50-1.76 Global Equity Income 14.86 15.65 -0.79-1.80 Global Equity Income 13.37 15.57 -2.20-1.79 Japan 12.3211.79 0.53-1.25 Japan 17.1116.52 0.59-1.16 Japanese Smaller Companies 11.27 9.45 1.82-1.85 Japanese Smaller Companies 18.43 14.67 3.75-1.84 North America 17.65 19.85 -2.20-1.26 North America 19.48 20.10 -0.62-1.03 North Am. Smaller Companies 15.80 18.76 -2.96-1.87 North Am. Smaller Companies 19.21 19.46 -0.26-1.88 UK All Companies 14.16 12.06 2.10 -1.38 UK All Companies 16.00 13.58 2.41 -1.32 UK All Companies - Active 14.83 11.96 2.87 -1.69 UK All Companies - Active 17.17 13.58 3.59 -1.68 UK All Companies - Tracker 11.83 12.32 -0.49 -0.41 UK All Companies - Tracker 13.45 13.58 -0.13 -0.46 UK Equity Income 13.27 11.64 1.64-1.79 UK Equity Income 16.01 13.58 2.43-1.54 UK Smaller Companies 16.8217.99 -1.17-1.84 UK Smaller Companies 21.04 21.90 -0.86-1.76 TOTAL 13.2112.50 0.71 -1.59 TOTAL 16.0314.71 1.33 -1.45 20 21 Jan–2012 Jan–2012 Feb–2012 Mar–2012 Apr–2012 May–2012 May–2012 Jun–2012 Jul–2012 Aug–2012 Sep–2012 Sep–2012 Oct–2012 Nov–2012 Dec–2012 Jan–2013 Jan–2013 Feb–2013 Mar–2013 Apr–2013 May–2013 Jun–2013 Jun–2013 Jul–2013 Aug–2013 Sep–2013 Oct–2013 Oct–2013 Nov–2013 Dec–2013 Jan–2014 Feb–2014 Feb–2014 Mar–2014 Apr–2014 May–2014 Jun–2014 Jul–2014 Jul–2014 Aug–2014 Sep–2014 Oct–2014 Oct–2014 Nov–2014 Dec–2014 Jan–2015 Feb–2015 Mar–2015 Mar–2015 Apr–2015 May–2015 Jun–2015 Jul–2015 Jul–2015 Aug–2015 Sep–2015 Oct–2015 Nov–2015 Nov–2015 Dec–2015 THE INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION APPENDIX C: FTSE INDEXES IN 2012-2015 250 200 150 100 50 0 FTSE 100 Source: IA analysis based on Morningstar data. 22 FTSE 250 FTSE 350 FTSE AIM All-Share FTSE All-Share