SPINS 30 Pricing Index
Updated through Period 11, 2015 (four weeks ending 11/1/2015)
Please note: With the Period 10 release both Natural and Conventional Food data reflect channel
restatements performed by SPINS and IRI, respectively. This will lead to differences in previously
reported basket levels and trends.
How does the regular price of an identical set of items compare in the Natural versus Conventional
Food versus Specialty Gourmet Channels? To find out, SPINS selected 30 popular grocery items to
include in a SPINS 30 market basket and we are monitoring their total cost to see how it changes on
an annual and period-to-period basis in each of the channels.
Basket: A diverse group of 30 Natural and Organic items, including beverages, entrees,
snacks, dairy, cereal, soup and frozen and refrigerated goods.
Methodology: Base (i.e., regular) price totals are trended over four-week periods using Total US
level SPINSscan Natural, SPINSscan Conventional Food and SPINSscan Specialty Gourmet data.
Total Basket: Natural and Specialty Gourmet jump +0.4%; Conventional Food flat.
In P11 the basket cost rose by +0.4% in Natural, remained unchanged in Conventional Food and
increased by a +0.4% in Specialty Gourmet. Prior period values were +0.4%, +0.2% and +0.5%,
respectively. The Conventional Food basket price is lower than Natural by -5.2% (previously -4.8%)
and below that of Specialty Gourmet by -12.1% (previously -11.8%). In the period, 18 of the
Natural channel item prices increased, nine remained the same and three decreased (a huge net
+15). In Conventional Food, 12 of the item prices rose, five were unchanged and 13 fell (a net -1).
In Specialty Gourmet, 18 of the item prices moved upward, one was flat and 11 declined (a net
+7).
SPINS LLC | 222 W. Hubbard St, Suite 300, Chicago, IL | 312.281.5100 | www.spins.com
Period-to-Period Percentage Change
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.6%
P11
P12
P13
P1
2015
P2
Natural
P3
P4
Conventional
P5
P6
P7
P8
P9
P10
P11
Specialty Gourmet
Annual Inflation: Trends bounce upward in Natural and Specialty Gourmet, hold
stable in Conventional Food.
On a year ago basis, P11 prices were up by +2.5% in Natural, rose by +1.5% in Conventional
Food and increased by a noteworthy +3.6% Specialty Gourmet. The P10 comparable figures were
+2.2%, +1.5% and +3.0%. Year ago trends continue to generally head upward in Natural and
Specialty Gourmet.
SPINS LLC | 222 W. Hubbard St, Suite 300, Chicago, IL | 312.281.5100 | www.spins.com
Commentary:
It is interesting to note the acceleration of price increases in Natural and Specialty Gourmet. Yearto-date gains are +2.9% in each of these channels, with a strong possibility of annual increases by
year end (i.e. after two more periods) hitting or exceeding +3%.
Each period we compare the individual prices of the 30 basket items to see how many are more
expensive vs. identically priced vs. less expensive than they were one year ago in each of the
channels. Net values rose by three to four points in all channels. Here is how things stand as of P11
2015:
 Natural: 19 more expensive, three identically priced, eight less expensive (a net +11;
previously a net +8)
 Conventional Food: 20 more expensive, none identically priced, 10 less expensive (a net
+10; previously a net +6)
 Specialty Gourmet: 23 more expensive, two identically priced, five less expensive (a net
+18; previously a net +14)
Conventional Food trends are powered by IRI. SPINS will continue to monitor the basket every period, so stay tuned.
SPINS LLC | 222 W. Hubbard St, Suite 300, Chicago, IL | 312.281.5100 | www.spins.com