MISO Seasonal
Forced Outage Rate
Capacity Accreditation Under Seasonal Construct Workshop
Agenda Item 03a
April 22nd, 2016
Background
• Throughout last year, MISO has
worked with stakeholders to
understand concerns with
resource adequacy and the
related MISO processes
• The proposal will be filed with a
requested implementation in
Planning Year 2018-2019
• The purpose of today’s meeting
is to discuss the impacts of
changes to seasonal
accreditation.
2
Seasonal Objectives Background
• Seasonal Effort Goals
– Enhance reliability through providing visibility into non-summer
resource adequacy risk
– Accurately represent capacity available to serve summer and
non-summer peaks
• Barriers to achieving these goals
– Current construct focuses on summer timeframe
– Variations have been observed between expected capacity
availability and actual performance during peak
40
EFORd Class Average [%]
35
Winter
Annual
30
Summer
25
20
15
10
5
0
CC
Steam - Gas
CT
0-20 MW
CT
20-50 MW
CT
50+ MW
Diesel
Coal
0-100
Coal
200-400
Coal
400-600
Coal
600-800
MISO
Weighted
Average
Seasonal EFORd
• The method for calculating a seasonal Equivalent
Forced Outage Rate-Demand (EFORd) will be
demonstrated with numeric examples, comparing
annual calculations vs seasonal calculations.
– An example spreadsheet is posted in the meeting materials with
formulas built in to allow for detailed understanding.
• Annual EFORd
– Example #1: Baseload Generator
– Example #2: Peaker Generator
• Seasonal EFORd
– Example #3: Baseload Generator
– Example #4: Peaker Generator
5
Example Calculation: EFORd
• MISO BPM-011-r15, Appendix I
• IEEE Std 762-2006, Appendix F.1.3, Table F.1 and Table F.2
• NERC DRI Appendix F, Table 1 and Table 2
Table 1: Raw Data Used as a Sample
Unit
48
49
50
51
52
Capacity
(MW)
55
57
60
53
55
SH
RSH
AH
Actual Starts
4556
4856
6460
3942
6904
1963
2063
516
3694
62
6519
6918
6978
7635
6968
31
34
17
36
14
Attempted Starts
31
34
18
36
16
EFDH
FOH
FO Events
110.51
146.99
131.03
19.92
35.81
407
773
340
504
138
5
12
14
11
12
Table 2: Calculated Values Used in EFORd Formula
Unit
48
49
50
51
52
1/r
1/T
0.0123
0.0155
0.0412
0.0218
0.0870
0.0158
0.0165
0.0349
0.0097
0.2581
1/D
0.0068
0.0070
0.0026
0.0091
0.0020
f
0.8049
0.8205
0.9666
0.7756
0.9942
f x FOH
327.608
634.247
328.630
390.920
137.194
fp
0.6989
0.7019
0.9258
0.5163
0.9908
fp x EFDH
EFORd x MW EFORd
77.233
103.178
121.303
10.285
35.481
4.5594
7.6560
3.9766
4.9075
1.3488
8.290%
13.432%
6.628%
9.259%
2.452%
6
EFORd Glossary of Abbreviations:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
FOH: full forced outage hours
FOHd: full forced outage hours when in demand
EFDH: equivalent forced de-rated hours
EFDHd: equivalent forced de-rated hours when in
demand
SH: service hours
RSH: reserve shutdown hours
AH: available hours
f: full demand factor
fp: partial demand factor
7
Equivalent Forced Outage Rate–Demand (EFORd)
𝐹𝑂𝐻𝑑 + 𝐸𝐹𝐷𝐻𝑑
𝐸𝐹𝑂𝑅𝑑 =
× 100%
𝐹𝑂𝐻𝑑 + 𝑆𝐻
where:
𝐹𝑂𝐻𝑑 = 𝑓 × 𝐹𝑂𝐻
𝐸𝐹𝐷𝐻𝑑 = 𝑓𝑝 × 𝐸𝐹𝐷𝐻
𝐹𝑂𝐻𝑑 : Forced Outage Hours (𝐹𝑂𝐻) overlapping the period of demand.
𝐸𝐹𝐷𝐻𝑑 : Equivalent Forced Derated Hours (𝐸𝐹𝐷𝐻) overlapping the period
of demand.
𝑓: Demand Factor – used to estimate the proportion of 𝐹𝑂𝐻
overlapping the period of demand for the unit to operate.
𝑓𝑝 : Partial Demand Factor – used to estimate the proportion of 𝐸𝐹𝐷𝐻
overlapping the period of demand for the unit to operate.
IEEE Std 762-2006, “Definitions for Use in Reporting Electric Generating Unit Reliability, Availability and Productivity.”
8
Demand Factors:
𝑓: Full Demand Factor
1
1
𝑟+ 𝑇
𝑓=
1 +1 +1
𝑟
𝑇
𝐷
𝑟: Average Forced Outage Duration  𝑟 = 𝐹𝑂𝐻 (# 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑂 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠)
𝑇: Average Reserve Shutdown Time  𝑇 = 𝑅𝑆𝐻 (# 𝑜𝑓 𝐴𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠)
𝐷: Average Demand Time
 𝑟 = 𝑆𝐻 (# 𝑜𝑓 𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠)
Peaking Unit In Service
•
•
•
A 48 hour forced outage on a
peaking unit which only
operates 5 hours per day.
The outage overlapped only 10
hours of demand for the unit.
The Demand Factor is used to
estimate the peaking unit’s
demand hours, so only 10 of
48 hours count in 𝐸𝐹𝑂𝑅𝑑 .
𝑓𝑝 : Partial Demand Factor
𝑆𝐻: 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠
𝑓𝑝 =
𝐴𝐻: 𝐴𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠
9
EFORd Example #1: Baseload
Unit
SH
RSH
AH
Actual Starts
Attempted Starts
EFDH
FOH
FO Events
1/r
1/T
1/D
f
f × FOH= FOHd
fp
fp × EFDH = EFDHd
EFORd
Baseload
6460
516
6976
17
18
131.03
340
14
0.041
0.035
0.003
0.967
328.630
0.926
121.338
6.628
Demand Factors
𝑟 = 340 14 = 24.3
𝑇 = 516 18 = 28.7
𝐷 = 6460 17 = 380
1
1
+
24.3
28.7
𝑓=
= 0.967
1
1
1
+
+
24.3
28.7
380
6460
𝑓𝑝 =
= 0.926
6976
Forced Outage and Forced Derated Hours:
𝐹𝑂𝐻𝑑 = 0.967 × 340 = 328.6
𝐸𝐹𝐷𝐻𝑑 = 0.926 × 131.03 = 121.3
Equivalent Forced Outage Rate Demand:
328.6 + 121.3
𝐸𝐹𝑂𝑅𝑑 =
× 100% = 𝟔. 𝟔𝟐𝟖%
328.6 + 6460
10
EFORd Example #2: Peaker
Unit
SH
RSH
AH
Actual Starts
Attempted Starts
EFDH
FOH
FO Events
1/r
1/T
1/D
f
f × FOH= FOHd
fp
fp × EFDH = EFDHd
EFORd
Baseload
6460
516
6976
17
18
131.03
340
14
0.041
0.035
0.003
0.967
328.630
0.926
121.338
6.628
Pkr
516
6460
6976
99
100
25.30
160
6
0.038
0.015
0.192
0.216
34.622
0.074
1.871
6.628
Demand Factors
𝑟 = 160 6 = 26.7
𝑇 = 6460 100 = 64.6
𝐷 = 516 99 = 5.2
1
1
+
26.7
64.6
𝑓=
= 0.216
1
1
1
+
+
26.7
64.6
5.2
516
𝑓𝑝 =
= 0.074
6976
Forced Outage and Forced Derated Hours:
𝐹𝑂𝐻𝑑 = 0.216 × 160 = 34.6
𝐸𝐹𝐷𝐻𝑑 = 0.074 × 25.30 = 1.871
Equivalent Forced Outage Rate Demand:
34.6 + 1.871
𝐸𝐹𝑂𝑅𝑑 =
× 100% = 𝟔. 𝟔𝟐𝟖%
34.6 + 516
11
Transition from annual outage rate to
seasonal outage rate entails sorting the
seasonal hours appropriately
Annual Outage Rate
• 36 consecutive months of
forced outages
Summer Outage Rate
• 4 summer months (June, July, Aug, Sept)
for 3 years
• Total of 12 months
Winter Outage Rate
• 8 winter months (Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb,
Mar, Apr, May) for 3 years
• Total of 24 months
12
The 2018/19 Planning Year’s XEFORd Data
• In an annual construct, 36 months of generator
availability data would be used for the XEFORd
values from September 1st, 2014 to August 31st, 2017
» BPM-011 r15, Appendix H.
• To capture 3 continuous summers and 3 continuous
winters, the 36-month time period will shift to
become October 1st through September 30th.
2014
2015
April
W
July
T
F
3
S
4
S
1
2
8
9 10 11 12
M
5
6
7
T
W
October
T
F
3
S
4
S
1
2
8
9 10 11 12
M
T
5
5
6
7
W
January
T
F
S
3
S
1
2
8
9 10 11
M
T
W
4
4
5
6
2016
April
T
7
F
S
S
1
2
8
9 10
M
T
3
5
6
7
W
July
T
F
S
3
S
1
2
8
9 10 11
M
T
W
4
5
6
7
October
T
F
S
3
S
1
2
8
9 10 11
M
T
W
January
T
4
4
5
6
7
F
S
S
1
2
8
9 10
M
T
W
F
3
3
4
5
2017
April
T
6
7
S
S
1
2
8
9
M
3
4
T
5
W
6
July
T
F
7
S
S
1
2
8
9
M
3
4
T
W
5
6
October
T
F
7
S
S
1
2
8
9
M
2
3
T
4
W
January
T
5
F
6
S
7
S
M
T
W
April
T
F
S
S
1
1
2
8
8
9 10 11 12 13 14
3
4
5
6
M
T
W
July
T
F
S
7
S
M
T
W
October
T
F
S
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2
3
4
5
6
7
S
M
T
3
W
T
4
F
5
S
1
1
2
8
8
9 10 11 12 13 14
6
7
5 16 17 18 19
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
2 23 24 25 26
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
9 30
27 28 29 30 31
26 27 28 29 30 31
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
26 27 28 29 30
26 27 28 29 30 31
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
29 30 31
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
29 30 31
31
30 31
30
30 31
6
31
May
W
7
August
T
F
S
S
1
2
8
9 10
M
T
W
November
T
F
3
3
4
5
6
7
S
S
1
2
8
9
M
2
3
T
4
W
February
T
5
F
6
S
7
S
M
T
W
3
4
May
T
F
5
S
6
S
1
1
2
8
8
9 10 11 12 13 14
M
T
W
August
T
F
7
3
4
5
6
7
S
S
1
2
8
9
M
2
3
T
4
W
5
November
T
F
6
S
7
S
M
T
3
W
February
T
4
F
5
S
6
S
1
1
2
8
8
9 10 11 12 13 14
M
7
7
T
W
3
May
T
F
4
S
5
S
M
T
3
W
4
August
T
F
5
S
6
S
1
2
6
1
2
8
9 10 11 12 13
8
9 10 11 12 13 14
M
7
7
T
W
3
November
T
F
4
S
5
S
1
2
8
9 10 11 12 13
M
6
6
7
T
W
February
T
F
3
S
4
S
1
2
8
9 10 11 12
M
T
W
5
5
6
7
May
T
F
S
3
S
1
2
8
9 10 11
M
4
7
T
W
3
August
T
F
4
S
5
S
1
2
8
9 10 11 12 13
M
6
6
7
T
W
November
T
F
3
S
4
S
1
2
8
9 10 11 12
M
T
5
5
6
7
W
T
F
S
1
2
8
9 10 11
3
4
3 14 15 16 17
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0 21 22 23 24
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
7 28 29 30 31
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
29 30
28 29
29 30 31
28 29 30 31
27 28 29 30
26 27 28
28 29 30 31
27 28 29 30 31
26 27 28 29 30
31
30
31
30 31
3
June
W
4
September
T
5
F
S
6
S
M
7
0 11 12 13 14
7
T
W
3
T
4
December
F
S
5
S
1
2
8
9 10 11 12 13
M
6
7
T
W
3
March
T
4
F
S
5
S
M
T
3
W
4
June
T
5
F
S
6
S
1
2
6
1
2
8
9 10 11 12 13
8
9 10 11 12 13 14
M
7
7
T
W
3
September
T
4
F
S
5
S
1
2
8
9 10 11 12 13
M
6
6
7
T
W
T
3
December
F
S
4
S
1
2
8
9 10 11 12
M
5
6
7
T
W
March
T
3
F
S
4
S
1
2
8
9 10 11 12
M
5
6
7
T
W
June
T
3
F
S
4
S
1
2
8
9 10 11 12
M
T
5
5
6
7
W
September
T
F
S
3
S
1
2
8
9 10 11
M
T
W
4
4
5
6
7
T
December
F
S
S
1
2
8
9 10
M
T
W
3
4
5
6
7
March
T
F
S
S
1
2
8
9 10
M
T
3
5
6
7
W
June
T
F
S
3
S
1
2
8
9 10 11
M
T
W
4
4
5
6
7
September
T
F
S
S
1
2
8
9 10
M
T
W
T
3
3
4
5
6
7
December
F
S
S
1
2
8
9
M
3
4
T
5
W
6
T
7
F
S
1
2
8
9
7 18 19 20 21
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
4 25 26 27 28
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
28 29 30
28 29 30 31
29 30 31
28 29 30
27 28 29 30
27 28 29 30 31
27 28 29 30 31
26 27 28 29 30
25 26 27 28 29 30
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
26 27 28 29 30 31
25 26 27 28 29 30
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31
13
EFORd Example #3a: Baseload
• Using Example #1, but with 3x hours and events to
demonstrate a 3-year dataset.
• This example shows an equal history of performance
between a 4-month summer and 8-month winter
maintains equal EFORd throughout the Year
Season
Time Period
Days
SH
EFDH
FOH
FO Events
Winter
Totals
10/01-5/31
729
12902
262
679
28
Summer 3 year Total
Totals
6/01-9/30 10/01/20149/30/2017
366
1095
6478
19380
131
393.09
341
1020
14
42
Caclulated Values
f × FOH = FOHd
656.359
329.530
985.890
fp × EFDH= EFDHd
242.344
121.670
364.014
6.628
6.628
6.628
EFORd
14
EFORd Example #3b: Baseload
• Using same 3 year totals as Example #3a, but with:
– 2 more FO Events and 120 more FO Hours in summer
– 2 less FO Events and 120 less FO Hours in winter
• This reflects class average trends seen in some MISO
base load generator categories.
Season
Time Period
Days
SH
EFDH
FOH
FO Events
Winter
Totals
10/01-5/31
729
13022
262
559
26
Summer 3 year Total
Totals
6/01-9/30 10/01/20149/30/2017
366
1095
6358
19380
131
393.09
461
1020
16
42
Caclulated Values
f × FOH = FOHd
541.700
443.852
985.890
fp × EFDH= EFDHd
242.509
121.501
364.014
5.782
8.312
6.628
EFORd
15
EFORd Example #4a: Peaker
• Using Example #2, but with 3x hours and events to
demonstrate a 3-year dataset.
• This example shows an equal history of performance
between a 4-month summer and 8-month winter
maintains equal EFORd throughout the Year
Season
Time Period
Winter Totals Summer Totals
3 year Total
10/01-5/31
6/01-9/30
729
1031
12902
198
200
320
12
366
517
6478
99
100
160
6
10/01/20149/30/2017
1095
1548
19380
297
300
480
18
69.148
34.717
103.865
fp × EFDH = EFDHd
3.738
1.877
5.614
EFORd
6.628
6.628
6.628
Days
SH
RSH
Actual Starts
Attempted Starts
FOH
FO Events
Caclulated Values
f × FOH = FOHd
16
EFORd Example #4b: Peaker
• Using same 3 year totals as Example #4a, but with
– 2 more FO Events and 120 more FO Hours in summer
– 2 less FO Events and 120 less FO Hours in winter
• This reflects class average trends seen in some MISO
peaking generator categories.
Season
Time Period
Winter Totals Summer Totals
3 year Total
10/01-5/31
6/01-9/30
729
911
12902
198
200
440
14
366
637
6478
99
100
40
4
10/01/20149/30/2017
1095
1548
19380
297
300
480
18
78.612
17.160
103.865
fp × EFDH = EFDHd
3.331
2.273
5.614
EFORd
8.284
2.969
6.628
Days
SH
RSH
Actual Starts
Attempted Starts
FOH
FO Events
Caclulated Values
f × FOH = FOHd
17
EFORd Example #4c: Peaker
• Using same 3 year totals as Example #4a, but with
– 5 more Starts and 500 more Service Hours in summer
– 5 less Starts and 500 less Service Hours in winter
• This reflects class average trends seen in some MISO
peaking generator categories, with more winter RSH.
Season
Time Period
Winter Totals Summer Totals
3 year Total
10/01-5/31
6/01-9/30
729
531
13402
193
195
320
12
366
1017
5978
104
105
160
6
10/01/20149/30/2017
1095
1548
19380
297
300
480
18
40.038
56.104
103.865
fp × EFDH = EFDHd
1.924
3.690
5.614
EFORd
7.354
5.570
6.628
Days
SH
RSH
Actual Starts
Attempted Starts
FOH
FO Events
Caclulated Values
f × FOH = FOHd
18
EFORd Example #4d: Peaker
• Using same 3 year totals as Example #4a, but
combining the seasonal FO behavior of Ex. #4b with
the RSH behavior of Ex. #4c.
• This reflects class average trends seen in some MISO
peaking generator categories.
Season
Time Period
Winter Totals Summer Totals
3 year Total
10/01-5/31
6/01-9/30
729
411
13402
193
195
440
14
366
1137
5978
104
105
40
4
10/01/20149/30/2017
1095
1548
19380
297
300
480
18
39.497
22.667
103.865
fp × EFDH = EFDHd
1.502
4.056
5.614
EFORd
9.109
2.304
6.628
Days
SH
RSH
Actual Starts
Attempted Starts
FOH
FO Events
Caclulated Values
f × FOH = FOHd
19
Careful! Seasonal EFORd values cannot be
averaged to result in annual EFORd estimation.
• Ex #3b:
𝟖 𝒘𝒊𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒔
𝟏𝟐 𝒂𝒏𝒏𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒔
× 𝟓. 𝟕𝟖𝟐 +
𝟒 𝒔𝒖𝒎𝒎𝒆𝒓 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒔
×
𝟏𝟐 𝒂𝒏𝒏𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒔
𝟖. 𝟑𝟏𝟐 = 𝟔. 𝟔𝟐𝟓
≠ 𝟔. 𝟔𝟐𝟖
(from slide 12)
• Ex #4d:
𝟖 𝒘𝒊𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒔
𝟏𝟐 𝒂𝒏𝒏𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒔
× 𝟗. 𝟏𝟎𝟗 +
𝟒 𝒔𝒖𝒎𝒎𝒆𝒓 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒔
×
𝟏𝟐 𝒂𝒏𝒏𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒔
𝟐. 𝟑𝟎𝟒 = 𝟔. 𝟖𝟒𝟏
≠ 𝟔. 𝟔𝟐𝟖
(from slide 16)
• This error grows with peaking units that show more contrast in
seasonal operating conditions. This is because of the
mathematics behind the calculations for the demand factor 𝒇,
which illustrates the reserve shutdown behavior.
20
Special cases when calculating EFORd
• To resolve calculation errors when a #DIV/0! occurs,
certain rules apply.
– Special cases include RSH = 0, FOH = 0, SH = 0 etc.
• The details for the special cases can be found in the
MISO website Library materials by searching for
“GORP Report Descriptions”, or at this link:
–
https://www.misoenergy.org/Library/Repository/Study/GADS/GORP%20Report%20Descriptions.pdf
21
Questions?
• John Reinhart
Resource Adequacy Coordination
(651) 832-8428
JReinhart@misoenergy.org
• Ryan Westphal
Resource Adequacy Coordination
(651) 632-8526
RWestphal@misoenergy.org
22
Break