Tim Malloy, Assistant Director,
Quinnipiac University Poll
(203) 645-8043
Rubenstein Associates, Inc.
Public Relations
Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026
FOR RELEASE: FEBRUARY 5, 2016
U.S. REPUBLICANS WANT TRUMP, BUT RUBIO IS BEST IN NOVEMBER,
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS;
DEM RACE IS TIED, BUT SANDERS RUNS BETTER AGAINST GOP
Donald Trump still leads the GOP presidential pack among Republican voters nationwide, with
31 percent, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 22 percent and Sen. Marco Rubio of
Florida with 19 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today. Dr.
Ben Carson has 6 percent, with 9 percent undecided and no other candidate above 3 percent.
In the Democratic race nationwide, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has 44
percent, with Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 42 percent, and 11 percent undecided. This
compares to a 61 – 30 percent Clinton lead in a December 22 survey by the independent
Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.
Sanders and Rubio are the strongest candidates in general election matchups. If former
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg runs, he hurts Sanders more than he hurts any of the
top Republican contenders.
Among Republicans, 30 percent say they “would definitely not support” Trump, while 15
percent say no to Cruz and 7 percent say no to Rubio.
Sanders has the highest favorability rating among top candidates, while Trump has the
lowest.
“Democrats nationwide are feeling the Bern as Sen. Bernie Sanders closes a 31-point gap
to tie Secretary Hillary Clinton,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University
Poll.
“And despite the Iowa setback, Donald Trump is way ahead of his GOP opponents.”
-more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/February 5, 2016 – page 2
“But that’s not the whole story nine months before Election Day. In mano a mano, or
mano a womano, face-offs with all contenders, Sanders and Rubio would be the candidates left
standing,” Malloy added.
“Although he is characterized as the New York counterpunch to Trump, Mayor Mike
Bloomberg is more the nemesis of Bernie than he is of Donald.”
General election matchups among American voters show:






Clinton tops Trump 46 – 41 percent;
Clinton ties Cruz 45 – 45 percent;
Clinton trails Rubio 48 – 41 percent;
Sanders thumps Trump 49 – 39 percent;
Sanders edges Cruz 46 – 42 percent;
Sanders and Rubio are tied 43 – 43 percent.
If Bloomberg runs as a third party candidate in some contests, results are:


Sanders at 35 percent, with Trump at 36 percent and Bloomberg at 15 percent;
Sanders at 37 percent, with Cruz at 36 percent and Bloomberg at 15 percent.
Sanders has a 44 – 35 percent favorability rating among American voters. Ratings for
other candidates are:





Negative 39 – 56 percent for Clinton;
Negative 34 – 59 percent for Trump;
Negative 36 – 42 percent for Cruz;
Positive 42 – 28 percent for Rubio;
Negative 20 – 25 percent for Bloomberg with 53 percent who don’t know enough about
him to form an opinion.
“While Trump, Clinton and Cruz wallow in a negative favorability swamp, by
comparison, Rubio and Sanders are rock stars,” Malloy said.
From February 2 – 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,125 registered voters nationwide
with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell
phones. The survey includes 507 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points
and 484 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia,
Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.
Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
2
1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for President were being
held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly
Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?
REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS................
Wht
Tea
BrnAgn
COLLEGE DEG
Tot
Party Evang Men
Wom
Yes
No
Bush
Carson
Christie
Cruz
Fiorina
Gilmore
Kasich
Rubio
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
3%
6
3
22
2
3
19
31
1
1
9
1%
5
3
31
3
2
14
32
9
1%
9
3
28
1
3
18
31
1
5
2%
5
2
19
2
5
18
39
1
1
6
4%
7
3
26
2
2
20
23
13
2%
4
4
18
3
6
28
25
1
1
7
3%
6
2
24
1
3
15
34
1
1
10
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your
mind before the primary?
REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS.................
CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
Tot
Cruz
Rubio
Trump
Made up
Might change
DK/NA
48%
52
-
45%
55
-
46%
52
2
60%
40
-
2. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Are there any of these candidates you would
definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president: Bush, Carson,
Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Kasich, Rubio, or Trump? (Totals may add up to more than
100% because multiple responses were allowed)
REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS................
Wht
Tea
BrnAgn
COLLEGE DEG
Tot
Party Evang Men
Wom
Yes
No
Bush
Carson
Christie
Cruz
Fiorina
Gilmore
Kasich
Rubio
Trump
No/No one
DK/NA
24%
8
12
15
13
10
11
7
30
28
7
36%
4
12
6
10
7
11
7
24
34
6
16%
6
6
10
9
7
12
5
28
38
5
29%
8
12
17
15
12
12
11
27
27
6
17%
7
12
12
11
8
10
4
35
29
7
22%
10
13
21
14
10
12
8
35
27
2
24%
6
11
12
13
10
11
7
28
29
9
3
3. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for President were being
held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, for whom would you
vote?
DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....
COLLEGE DEG
Tot
Men
Wom
Yes
No
Clinton
Sanders
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
44%
42
1
2
11
38%
48
1
3
10
48%
38
1
1
12
45%
42
1
2
10
44%
42
1
2
11
3A. (If candidate chosen q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your
mind before the primary?
DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......
CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q3................
CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q3......
Tot
Clinton
Sanders
Made up
Might change
DK/NA
65%
33
2
67%
29
4
63%
37
-
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Clinton
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Clinton
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
46%
41
3
7
3
9%
80
3
6
2
87%
7
1
2
3
48%
34
4
10
3
39%
48
3
8
2
52%
36
2
6
4
51%
37
2
8
3
44%
44
3
7
3
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
61%
23
3
11
2
30%
57
2
8
2
36%
50
2
8
3
82%
10
2
3
3
40%
50
2
7
1
44%
43
3
6
4
41%
49
3
4
3
42%
44
2
7
5
4
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Clinton
Cruz
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Clinton
Cruz
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
45%
45
2
5
3
9%
86
4
1
89%
5
1
3
3
42%
41
4
9
5
38%
49
3
7
3
52%
41
1
3
4
51%
40
1
6
2
42%
47
3
4
4
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
57%
33
2
5
4
30%
56
3
9
2
36%
52
2
6
3
77%
14
1
2
5
39%
52
3
6
1
44%
45
3
4
5
40%
49
1
5
4
42%
49
1
4
4
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Clinton
Rubio
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Clinton
Rubio
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
41%
48
2
4
4
5%
89
2
2
2
84%
9
1
2
4
38%
47
2
8
5
34%
54
3
7
3
47%
43
2
2
6
45%
48
1
3
3
39%
48
3
5
5
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
50%
37
1
6
5
27%
60
2
8
3
32%
57
2
5
4
79%
12
2
4
4
35%
58
2
3
1
42%
48
4
3
5
38%
51
2
4
5
37%
54
2
2
5
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Sanders
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Sanders
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
49%
39
2
6
5
11%
76
3
5
4
84%
8
4
4
56%
30
2
8
4
46%
45
2
5
2
52%
33
1
7
7
51%
35
2
9
4
48%
41
2
4
5
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
72%
19
2
3
4
37%
55
2
4
2
40%
48
1
5
5
77%
8
3
6
7
40%
46
2
7
6
47%
42
1
6
4
39%
48
3
6
4
42%
42
1
6
8
5
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Sanders
Cruz
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Sanders
Cruz
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
46%
42
1
5
6
9%
83
1
3
4
81%
6
1
6
6
51%
35
2
6
6
44%
44
2
6
4
48%
40
1
4
7
51%
38
2
5
4
44%
44
1
5
7
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
65%
26
1
2
5
37%
51
1
7
4
39%
50
1
5
5
64%
17
4
4
10
41%
47
1
6
4
41%
46
2
4
7
38%
49
1
7
5
40%
49
1
3
7
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Sanders
Rubio
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Sanders
Rubio
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
43%
43
1
5
8
6%
83
2
4
5
81%
8
5
6
43%
40
1
6
10
41%
47
1
5
5
44%
40
1
5
9
46%
45
1
5
3
41%
43
1
5
10
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
62%
26
1
3
7
34%
54
1
6
6
35%
52
1
5
7
67%
15
2
6
10
37%
53
1
5
4
40%
45
5
10
34%
52
2
6
6
36%
51
5
9
6
10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Bernie Sanders the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg running as
an independent, for whom would you vote?
Sanders
Trump
Bloomberg
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Sanders
Trump
Bloomberg
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
35%
36
15
1
4
9
5%
69
15
2
4
5
70%
7
11
2
10
35%
28
19
1
6
11
35%
41
14
1
4
4
35%
30
15
1
5
13
34%
28
23
1
4
9
36%
39
11
1
4
9
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
55%
18
15
2
2
9
26%
50
16
1
3
4
26%
43
17
1
4
9
67%
8
7
1
6
10
29%
40
16
1
6
8
33%
39
16
4
9
27%
45
12
1
5
9
26%
38
18
1
5
13
11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Bernie Sanders the Democrat, Ted Cruz the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg running as an
independent, for whom would you vote?
Sanders
Cruz
Bloomberg
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Sanders
Cruz
Bloomberg
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
37%
36
15
4
8
6%
74
12
1
3
5
70%
3
13
4
10
36%
28
21
1
5
9
37%
39
13
1
5
5
37%
33
16
3
11
36%
33
20
1
3
7
37%
37
12
4
9
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
57%
20
14
1
8
29%
46
15
5
6
29%
43
16
4
8
61%
13
12
1
4
9
32%
41
17
1
4
5
33%
38
15
5
9
28%
44
12
1
5
10
29%
41
17
3
10
7
12. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about her?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
39%
56
3
2
7%
89
2
2
75%
22
2
2
39%
55
5
2
31%
64
3
2
47%
49
2
2
43%
54
1
1
37%
57
3
2
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
39%
55
5
1
23%
74
2
1
31%
66
3
1
73%
20
5
2
34%
63
2
2
42%
54
2
2
41%
56
1
2
39%
57
3
1
13. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
34%
59
5
2
60%
34
4
2
13%
83
3
2
26%
64
8
2
39%
54
5
2
29%
64
5
1
28%
67
3
2
37%
56
6
2
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
16%
79
2
2
47%
46
4
3
41%
52
5
2
8%
84
6
2
40%
51
8
1
37%
59
3
1
41%
51
5
2
36%
57
5
1
14. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about
him?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
36%
42
20
2
68%
19
11
2
9%
61
27
3
27%
48
23
2
39%
45
13
3
33%
38
26
2
33%
56
9
1
37%
35
25
3
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
25%
49
25
1
42%
45
11
2
40%
41
16
2
19%
41
38
2
42%
41
17
1
37%
41
19
3
41%
35
21
3
39%
38
21
2
8
15. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
42%
28
29
2
69%
8
20
2
17%
48
34
1
40%
30
28
1
47%
30
21
2
38%
26
36
1
44%
36
18
1
41%
24
33
2
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
34%
32
31
3
52%
28
18
2
48%
25
26
2
12%
38
50
-
45%
27
27
-
45%
26
27
1
44%
23
30
3
44%
22
33
1
16. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
44%
35
19
2
13%
66
19
1
72%
10
18
1
53%
30
16
2
44%
41
13
1
45%
30
23
2
51%
38
10
1
41%
34
23
2
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
60%
19
19
2
39%
48
12
1
39%
43
16
2
55%
14
31
-
41%
43
16
1
41%
39
19
2
36%
38
23
3
40%
38
20
2
17. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about him?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No
20%
25
53
2
13%
36
50
1
27%
15
56
2
21%
24
54
1
19%
36
44
2
21%
16
62
1
29%
26
44
1
15%
25
58
2
AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
WHITE.....
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
19%
14
65
2
20%
38
40
2
22%
28
49
1
14%
23
63
-
21%
24
54
1
21%
30
48
1
18%
30
50
2
23%
19
58
1
9