Bob Buckley
“Just a parent”
Analyst: Performance Measurement and Modelling, AIS
Convenor, Autism Aspergers Advocacy Australia (A4) www.a4.org.au
Director, AABASD
VP, Autism Asperger ACT Inc.
Australia: previous prevalence
ž  Buckley
(2004) Autism/ASD
diagnosis rates in Australia, Proceedings of Australian
Biennial Autism Conference …
Substantial growth in ASD diagnoses
ž  ABS
SDAC 1998, 2003 … next is 2009
ž  AIHW …
ABS SDAC autism
90
1998
2003
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0–4
5–9
10–14
15–19
20+
Centrelink: Carer Allowance
ž  A4
Update Dec 2006
ž  Australia: diagnosis by age … no PDD-NOS
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
03
(2
00
220
05
)
4
(2
00
1)
5
(2
00
0)
6
(1
99
9)
7
(1
99
8)
8
(1
99
7)
9
(1
9
10 96)
(1
99
5)
11
(1
9
12 94)
(1
99
3)
13
(1
9
15
14 92)
-1
(1
6
9
(1
98 91)
919
90
)
0
AD
Asp
Policy issue #1
Ignoring a condition (such as PDD-NOS)
leads to absent data …
and few diagnoses
Australian ASD Diagnoses
AABASD report based on
Centrelink Carer Allowance data
ž  Best national data available on ASD
ž  Autism … then Asperger’s
ž  Funds carers
Australian ASD Diagnoses
Centrelink data: Carer Allowance,
AABASD report, Table 8
ž  62.5 per 10,000
or 1 in 160
70
60
50
40
Aspergers
30
Autism
20
10
0
2003
2004
0-5
2005
2003
2004
6-12
2005
2003
2004
13-15
2005
Australian ASD Prevalence
Scientific induction … future resembles past
Projection: prevalence is 62.5 per 10,000
70
60
50
40
projected
30
Aspergers
20
Autism
10
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
6-12
2007
2008
2009
Centrelink detailed data
Thank FaHCSIA ASD Branch for detailed
Carer Allowance data 2004 to 2009
Australian ASD Diagnoses
Australia: data from 2003 to 2009
120
100
80
60
Asperger
Autistic
40
20
0
2004200520062007200820092003200420052006200720082009200420052006200720082009
0-5
06-12
13-16
ASD numbers: 2005 - 2009
Shows a range of increases
Varies with age range and diagnosis
Prevalence in 6-12 year olds:
•  110.85 per 10,000 or 1 in 90
•  1.7 times increase in 3.5 years to 6/09
Aspergers Autistic
15.82
49.46
2005
2009
36.23
74.61
increase
2.3
1.5
ASD
65.28
110.85
1.7
Australian ASD Diagnoses
2005 age ranges … AABASD report, Table 8
70
60
50
40
Aspergers
Autism
30
20
10
0
0-5
6-12
13-15
diagnoses by age or birth year
2009 Australia
140
120
100
80
Asperger
Autistic
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Trends in ASD diagnoses
2009 Australia
140
120
100
80
Asperger
60
40
20
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Autistic
Centrelink: Carer Allowance (cont.)
ž  A4
Update Dec 2006
70
per 10,000
60
50
40
Asp
30
AD
20
10
-
US prevalence 2002: 1 in 150
data for 14 states
ž  8 year olds with ASD
ž  States vary …
ž
—  Alabama: 3.3 per 1,000
—  New Jersey: 10.6 per 1,000
—  Average: 6.6 per 1,000 (1 in 152)
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5601a2.htm
Lack of consistency, regional differences are not
particular to Australian states
Policy issue #2
At a state level, service and support policy
affects ASD prevalence
ASD policy has unintended consequences
Recent ASD diagnoses
Persistent features
ž  Earlier
diagnosis
ž  Growing prevalence
State patterns: NSW
Diagnoses after age 6 years are below the national average
State patterns: Vic
Prevalence increasingly above national average
State patterns: Qld
High prevalence above age 6 years
State patterns: SA
A bit below national average … and somewhat variable
State patterns: WA
Way below national average … and variable
State patterns: Tas
Falling below national average …
State patterns: ACT
Was high, fell below national average … and variable
State patterns: NT
A long way below national average … stabilising
ASD policy challenges
ž  Accurate
consistent diagnosis
ž  Appropriate treatment, service and support
for all with an ASD diagnosis
ž  … include PDD-NOS
ž  Accepting
what the data tell us
ž  Using available data for planning
ž  1
in 90 … that is >1% of children in 2009
Where from here?
ASD Prevalence in Europe
ž  Detailed
studies late 1990s in the UK
ASD ~60 per 10,000
ž  What
about the rest of Europe?
ž  Is there any longitudinal data?