This document was presented during the 2015 NCREIF Winter Conference.
The author(s) take full responsibility for all content.
This posting is for informational purposes only; neither NCREIF nor its Board express any opinion of the content presented herein.
Will Oil Blacken
the Outlook for
Houston and
Beyond
Presented by:
Del Kendall
Managing Director
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This document was presented during the 2015 NCREIF Winter Conference.
The author(s) take full responsibility for all content.
This posting is for informational purposes only; neither NCREIF nor its Board express any opinion of the content presented herein.
Global Oil Import Reliance
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This document was presented during the 2015 NCREIF Winter Conference.
The author(s) take full responsibility for all content.
This posting is for informational purposes only; neither NCREIF nor its Board express any opinion of the content presented herein.
Demand is Falling
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This document was presented during the 2015 NCREIF Winter Conference.
The author(s) take full responsibility for all content.
This posting is for informational purposes only; neither NCREIF nor its Board express any opinion of the content presented herein.
OPEC Maintains Production
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This document was presented during the 2015 NCREIF Winter Conference.
The author(s) take full responsibility for all content.
This posting is for informational purposes only; neither NCREIF nor its Board express any opinion of the content presented herein.
Oil Production Cost Comparison
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This document was presented during the 2015 NCREIF Winter Conference.
The author(s) take full responsibility for all content.
This posting is for informational purposes only; neither NCREIF nor its Board express any opinion of the content presented herein.
+ 50% of Crude Oil Production Comes From Permian Basin, Eagle Ford Shale and Bakken Shale 6
This document was presented during the 2015 NCREIF Winter Conference.
The author(s) take full responsibility for all content.
This posting is for informational purposes only; neither NCREIF nor its Board express any opinion of the content presented herein.
A Measured Sense of Optimism
2015 2016 2017 Forecast Forecast Forecast
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
$58.00
$3.62
$73.00
$3.98
$74.00
$4.38
Source: Median price of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg
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This document was presented during the 2015 NCREIF Winter Conference.
The author(s) take full responsibility for all content.
This posting is for informational purposes only; neither NCREIF nor its Board express any opinion of the content presented herein.
140
300,000
120
250,000
100
200,000
80
150,000
60
100,000
40
50,000
20
Real Imported Crude (USD/barrel)
350,000
0
Texas Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels)
Nov‐13
Sep‐12
Jul‐11
May‐10
Mar‐09
Jan‐08
Nov‐06
Sep‐05
Jul‐04
May‐03
Mar‐02
Jan‐01
Nov‐99
Sep‐98
Jul‐97
May‐96
Mar‐95
Jan‐94
Nov‐92
Sep‐91
Jul‐90
May‐89
Mar‐88
Jan‐87
Nov‐85
Sep‐84
Jul‐83
May‐82
0
Mar‐81
Texas Field Production (Thousand of Barrels)
Texas Production vs. Imports
Real Imported Crude Oil
Note: 4Q 2014 data as of November 2014.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 4Q 2014.
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This document was presented during the 2015 NCREIF Winter Conference.
The author(s) take full responsibility for all content.
This posting is for informational purposes only; neither NCREIF nor its Board express any opinion of the content presented herein.
Houston Reliance on Energy Shifts
1981
2004
Upstream Energy Jobs
68.7%
31.4%
Downstream Energy Jobs
15.6%
17.0%
Diversified (Non‐Energy) Jobs
15.7%
51.6%
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This document was presented during the 2015 NCREIF Winter Conference.
The author(s) take full responsibility for all content.
This posting is for informational purposes only; neither NCREIF nor its Board express any opinion of the content presented herein.
Population Percent Change
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
‐1.00%
‐2.00%
Houston
Texas
US
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.
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This document was presented during the 2015 NCREIF Winter Conference.
The author(s) take full responsibility for all content.
This posting is for informational purposes only; neither NCREIF nor its Board express any opinion of the content presented herein.
Oil Prices vs. Houston Employment
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This document was presented during the 2015 NCREIF Winter Conference.
The author(s) take full responsibility for all content.
This posting is for informational purposes only; neither NCREIF nor its Board express any opinion of the content presented herein.
Debt Markets Response
• CMBS Pools downgraded for risk exposure
• TENANTS: S & P downgrading oil companies, increasing tenancy risk. Morgan Stanley addressing real estate exposure
• CITIES: CMBS pools being analyzed for geographic exposure.
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