Idea Cellular - ICICI Direct

advertisement

Result Update

May 2, 2016

Rating matrix

Rating

Target

Target Period

Potential Upside

What’s changed?

Target

EPS FY17E

EPS FY18E

Rating

Quarterly performance

:

:

:

: Buy

| 130

12 months

10%

Unchanged

Changed from | 4.8 to | 4.3

Introduced at | 6.3

Unchanged

Revenue

EBITDA

Q4FY16 Q4FY15 YoY (%) Q3FY16 QoQ (%)

9,483.9

8,422.5

12.6

9,009.7

3,616.0 3,064.5 18.0 3,128.5

5.3

15.6

EBITDA (%) 38.1

36.4 174 bps 34.7 340 bps

PAT 575.6 941.8 (38.9) 764.2 -24.7

Key financials

| Crore

Net Sales

EBITDA

FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

31,571 35,981 39,633 43,466

10,812 13,030 14,340 15,791

PAT 3,193 3,080 1,542 2,253

EPS (in |) 8.9 8.6 4.3 6.3

Valuation summary

FY15

P/E 12.5

Target P/E

EV / EBITDA

FY16

13.0

FY17E

26.0

FY18E

17.8

14.6 15.2 30.4 20.8

6.0

5.9

5.2

4.6

P/BV

RoNW (%)

RoCE (%)

Stock data

1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4

13.9

12.0

5.7

7.7

11.3 9.4 8.8 10.1

Particular

Market Capitalization (| Crore)

Amount

42,484.2

Total Debt (FY16) (| Crore)

Cash (FY16) (| Crore)

38,214.1

781.9

79,916.2

187/ 97

3,597.8

10.0

EV (| Crore)

52 week H/L

Equity capital

Face value

Price performance

Bharti Airtel

RCOM

1M

4.1

14.1

18.8

Idea

Research Analysts

Bhupendra Tiwary bhupendra.tiwary@icicisecurities.com

3M

25.3

-6.0

14.5

6M

5.9

-23.5

-11.3

12M

-4.8

-3.3

-32.9

Sneha Agarwal sneha.agarwal@icicisecurities.com

Idea Cellular (IDECEL)

| 118

Pricing discipline but subdued volumes…

• Idea reported a 1.2% QoQ increase in total minutes on the network to 201.6 billion minutes, owing to lower-than-expected subscriber growth & MOU. Voice revenues came in at | 6674.0 crore, up 5.8% QoQ where the beat was mainly due to voice tariff rise to 33.3 paisa (up 4.4% QoQ) vs. an expectation of 31.5 paisa.

Data revenues exhibited 4.4% QoQ growth to | 1871 crore, forming 20.1% of mobility revenues led by increase in data tariffs to 22.9 paisa, up 2.7% QoQ. This was surprising in times of heightened competition. Data volume growth, however, remained subdued at 1.5% QoQ to 82 billion MB

• EBITDA came in at | 3616.0 crore, much higher than our expectations of | 3140.8 crore owing to higher revenues as well as huge savings on several costs front such as lower marketing expenses and network & operating costs. EBITDA margins came in at 38.1% (up 340 bps QoQ), higher than the estimated 34.0%

• PAT came in at | 575.6 crore vs. expectation of | 347.4 crore wherein the beat at the PAT level was on better fundamentals

Tariff increase bold move; volumes should be stable, going ahead!

Voice volume growth for Idea was muted at 1.2% QoQ in Q4FY16 vs.

Airtel, which posted 6.0% QoQ growth. Idea reduced freebies in its new circles to come at par with the leader on pricing. Though the reduction of promotions is a positive move to aid profitability, elasticity towards price could impact volumes negatively. While Idea indicated at following suit with the competition in terms of pricing, it pointed towards focusing on profitable minutes versus aggressive subscriber additions. The company also indicated that it is looking to garner market share from the exits/scale down by some smaller players. As per the management, currently 28% of revenues are outside top three players. Such exits would help in market share benefits for Idea. We have factored in voice volume and voice

ARPM CAGR of 5.6% and 2.4% in FY16-18E to 877 billion minutes and

34.0 paisa, respectively.

Slow uptake in mobile broadband concerning, RJio fears linger

Of the 60.4 million smart-phone users in the company’s network only 23 million access 3G/4G services while the overall data subscriber additions has been tepid. In the quarter, Idea posted 4.6% de-growth in its data volumes. Though some of the decline can be attributed to the tariff hike, the slowdown is alarming. Given the huge investments towards data and impending outlay in upcoming auctions, data volume growth slowdown is a concern. Moreover, the impending Reliance Jio launch poses a further threat to the overall industry wherein there could be higher churn if entrant resorts to disruptive pricing. We expect data tariffs to decline at

6.1% CAGR in FY16-18E, leading to data revenue growth of 22.6% to

| 10336.6 crore. Disruptive pricing by Reliance Jio remains a downside risks to our estimates.

Maintain target price of | 130, await mobile broadband pick up

We have revised our estimates for Idea factoring in higher depreciation and interest emanating from the spectrum. The company’s indication at exercising circle wise discretion in upcoming auctions is reassuring albeit we have not factored in any spectrum related payouts now. We highlight that mobile broadband pick-up remains a requisite to justify huge investments. We maintain our BUY rating with a target price of | 130.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Variance analysis

Revenue

Other Income

Employee Expenses

Marketing Expenses

Network operating expenditure

License and WPC Charges

Roaming & Access Charges

Q4FY16 Q4FY16E Q4FY15 Q3FY16 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Comments

9,483.9 9,235.7 8,422.5 9,009.7

12.6

5.3 Revenues came in higher-than-expected as the company has cut down on its promotional disocunts and freebies resulting in higher realisations and, hence, better revenues

40.2

15.0

186.4

30.8

-78.4

30.7

430.6

828.6

427.2

966.8

1,099.5 1,057.5

386.0

807.5

411.4

912.0

2,087.6 2,167.7 1,791.5 2,095.4

949.9 1,034.8

1,159.9 1,222.3 1,238.5 1,190.3

11.6

2.6

16.5

15.8

-6.3

4.7

-9.1 The company has been on a cost rationalisation spree. Hence ,there has been a discretionary reduction in the marketing expenses

-0.4

6.2

-2.6 The change in the minute composition and rolling out of own networks in certain circles has resulted in savings of costs from roaming agreements

EBITDA

EBITDA Margin (%)

Depreciation

Interest

Total Tax

PAT

Key Metrics

Subscribers (Million)

ARPU (Rs)

MoU (Rs)

ARPM (Rs)

3,616.0 3,140.8 3,064.5 3,128.5

18.0

38.1

34.0

36.4

34.7 174 bps 340 bps

1,973.7 1,886.0 1,487.7 1,623.1

32.7

21.6 The quarter has seen incremental amortisation charge on account of the newly acquired March spectrum put to use

808.1

737.0

291.7

365.7

15.6 Lower-than-expected costs as the company strongly focuses on cost rationalisation has resulted in higher-than-expected EBITDA

298.9

575.6

185.4

347.4

529.8

941.8

406.3

764.2

177.1

-43.6

-38.9

121.0

The interest charge also had an additional impact from the spectrum put to use in the quarter

-26.4

-24.7 The PAT has been higher due to overall improvement in the fundamental performance of the company

175.1

176.0

157.8

171.9

10.9

179

387.0

46.4

176

392.0

44.8

179

400.0

44.8

176

393.0

44.8

0.0

-3.3

3.6

1.8 Gross additions have been slightly lower than expectations as the company has cut down on its promotional minutes and freebies in a bid to focus on profitability

1.7

-1.5 The cut of down of freebies has limited the MOU growth in the quarter

3.6 The company took a bold step in increasing tariifs in the line with other peers in the data segment and cutting down on freebies in the voice market leading to an overall ARPM improvement

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Change in estimates

(| Crore)

Revenue

Old

FY17E

New % Change

39,343.9 39,632.9

0.7

FY18E

Introd.

43,466.2

EBITDA

EBITDA Margin (%)

PAT

13,689.2 14,339.5

4.8

34.8

36.2

139 bps

1,738.2

1,542.1

-11.3

15,790.8

36.3

2,252.5

EPS (|) 4.8

4.3

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Assumptions

Wireless Subscribers (Mn)

FY15

157.8

-11.3

6.3

Current Introd.

FY16 FY17E FY18E

175.1

183.5

192.5

Blended ARPU

Total Minutes

MoU per subscriber

ARPM (Paisa)

176.5

683.4

388.4

45.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

177.2

786.0

394.0

45.0

181.5

833.0

387.2

46.9

190.1

877.2

388.8

48.9

Comments

We have slightly revised our realisation upwards in line with the company's commentary to stick to profitable minutes

The cost reduction measures undertaken by the company as visible in the quarter has made us revise our EBITDA estimates upwards

The incremental depreciation and interest charge with respect to spectrum would dent the overall

PAT

Earlier Comments

FY17E

185.4

We have slightly toned down our subscriber addition estimates as the company guided for concentration on profitable minutes versus subscriber addition

180.4

845.8

The minute growth assumption has been reduced as the company has been reducing promotional minutes and cutting down on voice freebies

390.1

45.8

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Company Analysis

Idea shifts focus from aggressive subscriber additions …

Idea has exhibited higher than industry subscriber and revenue growth in the past few years. Subscribers have grown at 28.2% CAGR (FY08-16) while revenue has grown at 23.1% CAGR in the same period. The company indicated it would be focusing on taking price hikes in the coming quarters as opposed to being aggressive on subscriber additions.

We expect Idea to see subscriber growth of 4.8% CAGR in FY16-18E to

192.5 million subscribers with major growth coming in from new circles.

Exhibit 1: Subscriber details trends

250

200

150

100

50

0

135.8

FY14

157.8

FY15

175.1

FY16

Subscribers

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

183.5

FY17E

192.5

FY18E

Idea guides at matching market leader in tariffs...

Voice volume growth for Idea was muted at 1.2% QoQ in Q4FY16 vs.

Airtel, which posted a 6.0% QoQ growth. The company reduced freebies in its new circles to come at par with the leader on pricing. Though the reduction of promotions is a positive move to aid profitability, elasticity towards price could impact volumes negatively. While Idea indicated at following suit with the competition in terms of pricing, it pointed towards focusing on profitable minutes versus aggressive subscriber additions.

The company also indicated that it is looking to garner market share from the exits/scale down by some smaller players. As per the management, currently 28% of revenues are outside the top three players. Such exits would help result in market share benefits for Idea. We have factored in voice volume and voice ARPM CAGR of 5.6% and 2.4% over FY16-18E to

877 billion minutes and 34.0 paisa, respectively.

Exhibit 2: ARPM trends

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

0.44

168

381

FY14

0.46

176

388

FY15

0.45

177

394

FY16

0.47

181

387

FY17E

0.49

190

389

FY18E

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

MoU

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ARPU ARPM

Page 3

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Slow uptake in mobile broadband concerning, RJio fears linger

Of the 60.4 million smart-phone users in the company’s network only 23 million access 3G/4G services. Overall data subscriber additions have been tepid. In the quarter, Idea posted 4.6% de-growth in its data volumes. Though some of the decline can be attributed to the tariff hike, the slowdown is alarming. Given the huge investments towards data and impending outlay in upcoming auctions, data volume growth slowdown is a concern. Moreover, the impending Reliance Jio launch poses a further threat to the overall industry wherein there could be higher churn if the entrant resorts to disruptive pricing. We expect data tariffs to decline at 6.1% CAGR in FY16-18E, hence, leading to data revenue growth of 22.6% to | 10336.6 crore. Disruptive pricing by Reliance Jio remains a downside risks to our estimates.

Exhibit 3: Data subscribers, total data traffic

33.4

44.0

51.1

57.1

70.0

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

-

10.0

FY15 FY16

Data Traffic (Bn MB)

FY17E FY18E

Data Subscribers (Mn) - RHS

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Idea focus on profitability, margins to remain firm

Idea has adopted a strategy of focusing on profitability by cutting down on voice freebies and promotional activities, which would, in turn, aid margins. Though there would be higher network costs as the company props up its network capex, the company has undertaken other cost rationalisation measures. We expect margins to remain firm at 36.2% and

36.3% in FY17E and FY18E, respectively.

Exhibit 4: EBITDA and PAT margins trend

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

31.4

7.4

34.2

10.1

36.2

8.6

36.2

3.9

36.3

5.2

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

EBITDA Margin PAT Margin

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 4

Other takeaways from conference call

• Upcoming auctions: The management indicated at exercising circle wise discretion in upcoming auctions. It indicated that Gujarat and

UP (W) are examples of such circles where the mobile broadband presence is missing for Idea and is critical for the business. The cancellation of the Videocon deal was attributed to the supply of spectrum in the upcoming auction

• Voice tariffs: The company guided at following suit with competition in regard to tariffs, going ahead. It has significantly clamped down on promotional minutes for both existing and new subscribers. Such pricing improvement is visible in the quarter. The major improvement has come from new circles. The company expects

EBITDA break-even in most new circles by FY18E

• Mobile broadband growth: Data volume growth lags behind the pace of investments made by operators. The management emphasised that data growth would be driven by subscriber additions as out of

60 million subscribers on the company’s network with a 3G/4Genabled smartphone, only 23 million use it to access 3G/4G. Price fall in the data segment would continue in FY17 as well, similar to FY16.

Higher speed 4G services could also aid volumes, going ahead, as

4G data subscriber consume 1.5-1.8x data used by 3G subscribers

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 5

Valuation

We have revised our estimates for Idea factoring in higher depreciation and interest emanating from the spectrum. The company’s indication at exercising circle wise discretion in upcoming auctions is reassuring albeit we have not factored in any spectrum related payouts now. We highlight that mobile broadband pick-up remains a requisite to justify the huge investments. We maintain our BUY rating with a target price of | 130.

Exhibit 5: DCF Assumptions

Particulars Amount

WACC

Revenue CAGR over FY16E - FY22E

PV of Cash Flow Till Terminal Year

Terminal Growth

Present Value of terminal cash flow

PV of firm

Less: Net Debt

Total present value of the Equity (excluding current cash)

Number of Equity Shares outstanding

DCF - Target price (|)

10.9%

9.0%

6,382.9

4.0%

77,082.1

83,465.0

36,660.4

46,804.7

360.0

130

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 6: Valuations

Sales Growth EPS Growth

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE

(| cr) (%) (|) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)

31,570.9 19.1 8.9 49.7 13.3 6.3 13.9 11.3

35,981.0

14.0

8.6

-3.6

13.8

6.1

12.0

9.4

39,632.9 10.1 4.3 (49.9) 27.6 5.4 5.7 8.8

43,466.2

9.7

6.3

46.1

18.9

4.8

7.7

10.1

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 6

Company snapshot

250

100

50

0

200

150

Target Price | 130

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key events

Feb-12 Supreme Court cancels licenses, which include Idea's licenses in seven circles. It gives way to lower competition in the industry

Nov-12 Spectrum auction post license cancellation takes place. These auctions reduce several players to regional operators. Idea acquires licenses in the cancelled circles

Jun-13 Pricing power returns to operators. ARPMs start showing upward momentum. Idea increases its ARPM from 41 paisa at the end of FY13 to 44.9 paisa by Q3FY14

Feb-14 Spectrum auctions held in the 900 and1800 MHz band while Idea purchases spectrum in 11 circles at an outlay of | 10716 crore

Jun-14

Jul-14

Mar-15

Dec-15

Jan-15

Idea Cellular succesfully completes its QIP of | 3000 crore and allots 223.9 million fresh equity shares at an issue price of | 134 per equity share, including | 124 as a premium on per share

Idea raises | 750 crore by making preferential allotment to Axiata Group. Axiata was alloted 51.8 crore equity shares at | 144.68 per equity share

Spectrum auctions held in the 800, 900, 1800 and 2100 Mhz band. Idea participates in auctions and wins back all its expiring spectrum with a total of 79.4 MHz won. The total payout for Idea is | 30307 crore and the immediate payout is | 7790 crore

Enters into agreement with Videocon to purchase its spectrum in the circles of UP(W) and Gujarat for an outlay of | 3310 crore

Launches its high-speed 4G LTE network across four South India telecom service areas of Andhra Pradesh, including Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu.

Further, Idea on 14 January, 2016 extends its 4G services to telecom circles of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, Punjab and Haryana, and now cover 183 towns across seven circles for high-speed LTE services

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Top 10 Shareholders

Rank Name

1

2

3

Aditya Birla Group

Axiata Group Bhd

Providence Equity Partners LLC

7

8

9

4

5

6

Stewart Investors

Capital World Investors

Schroder Investment Management Ltd. (SIM)

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd.

The Vanguard Group, Inc.

First State Investments (Singapore)

10 BNP Paribas Investment Partners Asia Ltd.

Shareholding Pattern

Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m)n Change (m)

31-Dec-15 42.23

31-Dec-15 19.77

31-Dec-15 6.80

1,520.4

712.0

245.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(in %) Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16

Promoter 42.27

42.26

42.25

42.24

42.24

FII

DII

24.60

24.43

24.05

24.07

24.20

4.63

4.73

5.12

5.35

5.15

Others 28.50

28.58

28.58

28.34

28.41

31-Dec-14 2.75

31-Mar-16 2.62

29-Feb-16 2.16

31-Dec-15 1.80

31-Dec-15 1.71

29-Feb-16 1.62

31-Dec-15 1.30

99.1

94.4

77.9

64.7

61.7

58.4

46.9

-21.0

8.4

-0.1

1.1

0.0

4.0

4.5

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Recent Activity

Investor name

Capital World Investors

BNP Paribas Investment Partners Asia Ltd.

First State Investments (Singapore)

Buys

BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A.

Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P.

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Sells

Value Shares Investor name

+13.91M

+8.36M Capital Research Global Investors

+9.71M

+4.48M Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM)

+6.11M

+4.00M Union Investment Privatfonds GmbH

+3.11M

+1.87M Wellington Management Company, LLP

+2.79M

+1.83M Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited

Value Shares

-40.20M

-24.17M

-10.48M

-6.66M

-4.83M

-2.92M

-2.79M

-2.75M

-1.29M

-1.27M

Page 7

Financial summary

Profit and loss statement

(Year-end March)

Total operating Income

Growth (%)

Employee Expenses

Roaming & Access Charges

Network operating expenditure

License and WPC Charges

SG&A Expenses

Other Costs

Total Operating Expenditure

EBITDA

FY15 FY16 FY17E

| Crore

FY18E

31570.9

35981.0

39632.9

43466.2

19.1

1,529.9

4,731.3

7,195.7

3,535.2

14.0

1,659.9

4,643.6

8,170.7

4,150.8

10.1

4,792.6

4,498.3

9.7

1,951.0

5,047.0

9,187.6

10,523.4

4,933.4

2,878.3

888.9

3,353.3

972.8

3,821.3

1,190.5

3,930.5

1,290.1

20759.2

22951.0

25293.4

27675.3

10811.7

13030.0

14339.5

15790.8

Growth (%)

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

Non Operating Expenses

PBT

MI/ Profit from associates

Total Tax

PAT

Growth (%)

EPS (|)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet

(Year-end March) FY15

Liabilities

Equity Capital

Reserve and Surplus

Others

Total Shareholders funds

Total Debt

Deferred Tax Liability

Others

Total Liabilities

Assets

Gross Block

Less: Acc Depreciation

Net Block

Capital WIP

Total Fixed Assets

Investments

Inventory

Debtors

Loans and Advances

Other Current Assets

Cash

Total Current Assets

Creditors

Provisions

Total Current Liabilities

29.7

5303.6

1045.2

469.7

0.0

4932.5

0.0

1739.6

3192.9

62.3

8.9

20.5

6650.8

1881.6

227.1

0.0

4724.7

0.0

1644.7

3079.9

-3.5

8.6

FY16

10.1

8204.0

3939.1

140.0

10.1

8693.2

3844.7

160.0

0.0

0.0

2336.5

0.0

794.4

1542.1

-49.9

4.3

FY17E

3412.9

1160.4

2252.5

| Crore

0.0

46.1

6.3

FY18E

3,597.8

3,600.5

3,600.5

3,600.5

19,429.5

22,165.1

23,623.0

25,707.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

23,029.2

25,767.5

27,225.4

29,309.4

26,859.1

38,214.1

37,364.1

36,364.1

1,901.5

963.3

3,071.4

3,274.0

3,071.4

3,274.0

3,071.4

3,274.0

52,753.1

70,327.0

70,934.8

72,018.9

62,461.0 101,870.0 107,468.6 115,468.6

26,927.4

33,578.2

41,782.2

50,475.4

35,533.6

68,291.8

65,686.4

64,993.2

5,140.5

6,098.6

8,500.0

8,500.0

40,674.1

74,390.4

74,186.4

73,493.2

11,532.8

1,378.9

1,378.9

2,378.9

71.0

106.5

117.3

1,297.1

128.7

978.9

5,504.2

106.2

1,553.7

8,214.0

1,177.6

4,784.8

2.0

781.9

6,852.8

5,270.4

2.2

2,228.3

1,422.6

5,780.2

2.4

3,671.7

8,915.4

11,005.5

6,838.1

11,248.1

12,389.7

13,588.1

875.6

1,075.1

1,184.2

1,298.7

7,713.7

12,323.1

13,573.9

14,886.8

Net Current Assets

Other Non Current Assets

Application of Funds

500.3

-5,470.4

-4,658.5

-3,881.2

45.8

27.8

27.8

27.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

52,753.1

70,326.7

70,934.6

72,018.6

.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Cash flow statement

(Year-end March)

Profit after Tax

Add: Depreciation

Add: Interest paid

(Inc)/dec in Current Assets

Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions

Others

CF from operating activities

(Inc)/dec in Investments

(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets

Others

FY15

3,192.9

5,303.6

1,045.2

(1,672.7)

1,054.3

FY16

3,079.9

6,650.8

1,881.6

589.4

4,609.5

FY17E

1,542.1

8,204.0

3,939.1

(616.2)

1,250.7

| Crore

FY18E

2,252.5

8,693.2

3,844.7

(646.8)

1,312.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

8,923.4

16,811.2

14,319.7

15,456.5

-11,311.2

10,153.7

0.0

-1,000.0

-4,962.5

-40,367.0

-8,000.0

-8,000.0

227.6

3,498.6

0.0

0.0

CF from investing activities

Issue/(Buy back) of Equity

Inc/(dec) in loan funds

Dividend paid & dividend tax

Interest Paid

Others

CF from financing activities

Net Cash flow

Opening Cash

Closing Cash

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

-16,046.0

-26,714.8

-8,000.0

-9,000.0

278.2

2.7

0.0

0.0

5,611.8

-12,725.0

-383.8

-260.0

-850.0

-168.5

-1,000.0

-168.5

-1,045.2

-1,881.6

-3,939.1

-3,844.7

4,027.3

23,995.7

84.3

0.0

8,488.3

9,131.7

-4,873.2

-5,013.2

1,365.6

188.1

1,553.7

-771.9

1,553.7

781.9

1,446.5

781.9

2,228.3

1,443.4

2,228.3

3,671.7

Key ratios

(Year-end March)

Per share data (|)

EPS

Cash EPS

BV

DPS

Cash Per Share

Operating Ratios

EBITDA Margin (%)

EBIT Margin (%)

PAT Margin (%)

Inventory days

Debtor days

Creditor days

Return Ratios (%)

RoE

RoCE

RoIC

Valuation Ratios (x)

P/E

EV / EBITDA

EV / Net Sales

Market Cap / Sales

Price to Book Value

Solvency Ratios

Debt/EBITDA

Debt / Equity

Current Ratio

Quick Ratio

FY15

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

13.9

11.3

12.0

13.3

6.3

2.1

1.3

1.8

8.9

23.6

64.0

1.1

4.3

34.2

17.4

10.1

0.8

11.3

79.1

2.5

1.2

0.9

0.9

5.7

8.8

10.2

27.6

5.4

2.0

1.1

1.6

36.2

15.5

3.9

1.1

11.9

114.1

2.6

1.4

0.5

0.5

FY17E

4.3

27.1

75.6

0.5

6.2

12.0

9.4

10.1

13.8

6.1

2.2

1.2

1.6

36.2

17.7

8.6

1.1

11.9

114.1

2.9

1.5

0.5

0.5

FY16

8.6

27.0

71.6

0.7

2.2

7.7

10.1

11.9

18.9

4.8

1.7

1.0

1.4

36.3

16.3

5.2

1.1

11.9

114.1

2.3

1.2

0.5

0.5

FY18E

6.3

30.4

81.4

0.5

10.2

Page 8

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Telecom)

Sector / Company

Bharti Airtel (BHATE)

CMP

(|) TP(|) Rating

M Cap EPS (|)

(| Cr) FY15 FY16E FY17E

364 435 Buy 145,345 13.0

13.7

16.3

Bharti Infratel (BHAINF)

Idea Cellular (IDECEL)

Tata Comm. (VIDSAN)

375 500 Buy 71,088 10.5

12.1

13.9

118 130 Buy 42,484

413 500 Buy 11,766

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

8.9

8.6

4.3

0.0

-0.5

16.2

P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%)

FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E

28.0

26.5

22.3

6.9

6.9

6.0 10.3

9.4

11.1

9.7

6.1

9.3

35.6

31.1

27.0 13.7

12.9

11.6 15.8

18.3

20.9 11.7

13.9

16.3

13.3

13.8

27.6

6.3

NM NM 25.5

8.5

6.1

8.0

5.4 11.3

6.7

6.9

9.4

5.6

8.8 13.9

8.8

0.7

12.0

5.7

NM 175.0

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 9

RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.

Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;

Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;

Hold: Up to +/-10%;

Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093 research@icicidirect.com pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 10

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

We /I, Bhupendra Tiwary MBA, Sneha Agarwal, MBA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a Sebi registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities is full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current.

Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

It is confirmed that Bhupendra Tiwary MBA, Sneha Agarwal, MBA, Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

It is confirmed that Bhupendra Tiwary MBA, MBA Sneha Agarwal, MBA, Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 11

Download