Integrated WEC System Optimisation –
Achieving Balanced Technology Development and
Economical Lifecycle Performance
Jochem Weber
Head of Research
Wavebob Ltd.
Maynooth, Co. Kildare, Ireland
________________________________________
NUI Maynooth Wave Energy Workshop 2011
Financial support by:
- Enterprise Ireland
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- Wavebob Ltd.
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Integrated WEC System Optimisation –
Achieving Balanced Technology Development and
Economical Lifecycle Performance

… Introduction & Motivation

… Techno-economic WEC Performance Assessment Framework

… Wave Energy Converter Engineering Analysis

… Wavefarm Lifecycle Analysis

… Integrated techno-economic WEC optimisation

… Research technology development process guidance

... Technology Readiness Levels and Technology Performance Levels

... Conclusions
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Introduction & motivation
… Status: Technology development
• Ambitious targets, several large scale demonstrators, persisting
variety of WEC species/types,
• Technology Readiness Levels, valuable protocols, standards and
tools for the measurement of WEC performance and evaluation of
technology status
… Need: Performance appraisal procedures of WECs
• Subject to economical performance criteria
• Predictive for cheap, effective and timely technology advancement
• Definition, use of Technology Performance Levels across of technologies
… Proposal: Techno – economic WEC system evaluation & optimisation
• Integrated techno-economic WEC performance assessment framework
• Optimisation of the technology subject to economical performance criteria
• Directing of effective Research Technology Development process
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Techno-economic WEC Performance Assessment
Framework
… Progress: Integration, structure and simulation
• Simultaneous consideration of key techno-economic performance
features
• Integrated techno-economic WEC performance assessment
framework with feedback – Optimisation & RTD process control
Techno-economic wave energy conversion system
performance assessment framework
Wave Energy Converter
Engineering
Wavefarm
Inputs
Lifecycle
Analysis
Analysis
Progress
Review
Integrated optimisation
Research technology development process guidance
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Wave Energy Converter Engineering Analysis
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
… describes a WEC system unit by
Design
Performance, reliability
Cost drivers
... covering
System dynamics
Subsystem engineering analysis
Design assessment
... using various tools
Simulation, empiric, testing
Strategic, codes, standards
Expert judgement
Subset for numerical implementation
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Wavefarm Lifecycle Analysis (WLA)
… seeks to quantify Revenue, CapEx and OpEx associated with all
important aspects of the complete wavefarm system lifecycle
Required key prediction models include
• Marine Operational Environment Model (MOEM)
• Manufacturing Model (MM)
• Deployment Model (DM)
• Operational and Maintenance Model (OMM)
• Productivity Model (PM)
• Financial Model (FM)
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Wavefarm Lifecycle Analysis (WLA)
Energy
production
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Marine Operational Environment Model (MOEM)
… provides deterministic and statistical environmental and weather
information over the lifecycle of the system
•
•
•
•
Wave height
Wave period
Wind speed
...
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Manufacturing Model (MM)
… provides dry CapEx estimate and number of manufactured units
over time
Cost breakdown of all key subsystems include
Main Structure Hull
• Main structure, hull
• PTO
PTO
4%
• On-board electrical equ.
On-board electrical
equipment
19%
31%
• Control & instrumentation
Control and Instrumentation
• Assembly
10%
Assembly
• Mooring
18%
13%
• Auxiliary
Moorings
5%
Auxiliaries
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Deployment Model (DM)
… provides wet CapEx estimate and number of installed and
comissioned units over time
Deployment is subject to
• Unit readiness
• Authorisation
• Permitting weather window
• Ship availability
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Operational and Maintenance Model (OMM)
… provides OpEx estimate and number of units available for
operation over time
OpEx drivres include
• Deployment
• Onsite repair
• Onshore repair
• Removal
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Productivity Model (PM)
… provides wave farm power production over time
By combining
• Power matrix
• Availability
• Wave climate
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Financial Model (FM)
… provides economic wave farm performance over time based on
discounted cash-flow algorithm
Characteristics include
• Revenue
• OpEx
• Future cash-flow
• Disc. Cash-flow
• Net present value
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Integrated techno-economic WEC
system optimisation
…provides a numerical implementation of the WEC assessment
framework and uses economical performance feedback for technical
system optimisation
Techno-economic wave energy conversion system
performance assessment framework
Wave Energy Converter
Engineering
Wavefarm
Lifecycle
Inputs
Analysis
Analysis
Progress
Review
Integrated optimisation
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Integrated techno-economic WEC
system optimisation
…provides a numerical implementation of the WEC assessment
framework and uses economical performance feedback for technical
system optimisation
• High level nested
loop architecture
• Focus technical
optimisation
• Subject to
economic
performance
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Research Technology Development
Process Guidance
…is provided by utilising the economic performance feedback of the
development stages on the technology development process
Techno-economic wave energy conversion system
performance assessment framework
Wave Energy Converter
Engineering
Wavefarm
Inputs
Lifecycle
Analysis
Analysis
Progress
Review
Research technology development process guidance
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Research Technology Development
Process Guidance
…is provided by utilising the economic performance feedback of the
development stages on the technology development process
Effectuation includes
• Conceptual, technological, procedural, operational decision making,
• Development fund & financial resource allocation
• Time resource allocation
• Human resource allocation
• Expertise selection, consortium, partners, service providers
• Knowledge gap identification and evaluation of relevance
• Sensitivity analysis and system robustness
• Identification and quantification of development requirements
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Technology performance & readiness levels
€0
Required Funding
Low
“Say €1m"
Medium
“Say €10m”
High
“Say €100+m”
Low
7
8
commercial &
economic
Cost of energy
4
5
Medium
6
“Say <1€/kWh"
2
High
3
“Say >1 €/kWh”
1
Technology Performance Level (TPL)
9
“Say 0.1 €/kWh"
“Say 10 €/kWh”
1
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3
4
5
6
7
8
Technology Readiness
Level (TRL)
18
9
Technology performance before readiness
€0
Required Funding
Low
“Say €1m"
Medium
“Say €10m”
High
“Say €100+m”
Low
7
8
commercial &
economic
Cost of energy
4
5
Medium
6
“Say <1€/kWh"
2
High
3
“Say >1 €/kWh”
1
Technology Performance Level (TPL)
9
“Say 0.1 €/kWh"
“Say 10 €/kWh”
1
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3
4
5
6
7
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Technology Readiness
Level (TRL)
19
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Conclusions
…the establishment of a suitable WEC assessment framework is a
challenging and worthwhile task.
The WEC assessment framework serves as blueprint for tools of
• Technology evaluation, comparison, development and optimisation
Relevance for
• Investment choices
• RTD development choices – speed, direction, control, success
• Concept, design, technology, process and project optimisation
• Identification, quantification and mitigation of risk
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Conclusions
…the establishment of a suitable WEC assessment framework is a
challenging and worthwhile task.
Challenges include
• Strong sensitivity of model and parameter choice
• Apply appropriate measure of modelling accuracy
Next steps
• Transition from generic to actual project conditions
• Thorough sensitivity analysis
• Detailed development of Technology Performance Levels and
performance assessment tools
• Further integration into research technology development process at
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thank you!
Better is good enough.
Technology improvement is possible.
It’s worth it!
Questions?
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