Market Pulp Outlook: Effects of the Collapse in Graphic Paper

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The Pulp Industry’s Response to Fluffless
Cores
David Allan, Editor, Nonwovens, RISI
October 28, 2015
Hygienix 2015
1
?
Thesis
•
•
•
•
Thinner is in
Fluff pulp is here to stay
Secret stuff still being developed
A lot of work is aimed at adding
– end-product functionality or
– operational efficiency
…somewhat around the margins
3
Agenda
1. Fluff pulp basics
a) Who makes it
b) Supply/demand outlook
2. Fluff pulp in hygiene products
a) Our future is thinner
b) What pulp makers are doing about it
4
Agenda
1. Fluff pulp basics
a) Who makes it
b) Supply/demand outlook
2. Fluff pulp in hygiene products
a) Our future is thinner
b) What pulp makers are doing about it
5
Fluff pulp – who makes it
% of World Capacity
80%
% of World Capacity
100%
90%
70%
80%
70%
60%
60%
50%
40%
50%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
GP, IP,
Weyerhaeuser
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All Others
0%
North America Rest of World
Agenda
1. Fluff pulp basics
a) Who makes it
b) Supply/demand outlook
2. Fluff pulp in hygiene products
a) Our future is thinner
b) What pulp makers are doing about it
7
More, thinner products: fluff
demand growth in short-term
Fluff gm/baby diaper
Inco unit sales
12.0
60.0
11.5
50.0
11.0
40.0
10.5
30.0
10.0
20.0
9.5
10.0
9.0
0.0
2013
2015
8
2017
2019
2013
2015
2017
2019
World fluff pulp demand: growth
averages 229,000 mt a year
8000
7000
E. Europe
6000
China
5000
Latin America
4000
Other Asia
3000
2000
Africa/Middle East
1000
Mature Markets (USA,
CA, WEU, JP, OCE)
0
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Demand growth concentrated in
emerging markets
15.0%
12.0%
Emerging
Markets
9.0%
6.0%
3.0%
0.0%
00
-3.0%
-6.0%
-9.0%
10
02
04
Mature
Markets
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
Fluff pulp – what is it used for
• Cores
– Traditional cores in diapers and AI products
– Reduced-fluff cores
– Airlaid cores (fem hy – often with debonding
agent added to aid in defiberizing)
• ADL (crosslinked fiber for improved wet
resilience of fluff pulp fiber network)
• Other airlaid products (pet pads, meat
packaging etc.)
• Combination technologies (Coform, Spinlace)
11
Global 2013 Fluff Pulp Usage by
End-Use
Baby Diapers
Adult Incontinence
Feminine Hygiene
Airlaid/Other
0%
12
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
World fluff pulp supply: no
shortage ahead
• Almost 1 million tonnes of capacity
projected to start up in 2H 2016 – enough
potentially to satisfy all growth for next four
years
• Other paper-grade mills seeking exit
strategy from their declining markets
• Eucalyptus pulp makers diving into fluff too
• Why all this investment?
Agenda
1. Fluff pulp basics
a) Who makes it
b) Supply/demand outlook
2. Fluff pulp in hygiene products
a) Our future is thinner
b) What pulp makers are doing about it
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The incredible shrinking diaper
Wt of avg European diaper in grams
0.41
0.3924
0.39
0.3724
0.37
0.3661
0.3547
0.35
0.342
0.33
0.31
0.29
2010
Source: Ekotec/Hy-Tec
15
2011
2012
2013
2014
Thin is in – but why?
• What is being
promoted to ‘mom’?
– ‘up to 12 hours
overnight protection’
– ‘…gap free fit’
– ‘Adorable Mickey
Mouse Disney design’
– ‘wetness indicator
tells…when your baby
might need a change’
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Some products using more SAP
Product
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SAP Content
Huggies Little Movers
≥55%
Huggies Snug & Dry
≥65%
Private labels + some adult
50-55%
Agenda
1. Fluff pulp basics
a) Who makes it
b) Supply/demand outlook
2. Fluff pulp in hygiene products
a) Our future is thinner
b) What pulp makers are doing about it
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G-P’s Golden Isles family
• “The unique functionalities of Golden Isles CO™ flu pulp are derived
from a proprietary GP Cellulose process that modifies the structure
of the cellulose. This structural modification results in a fluff pulp
fiber that is conformable and flexible when converted to a high
density absorbent core with the potential to capture and neutralize
ammonia”
• “Higher density absorbent cores wick fluids better leading to
improved rewet performance”
• “Improved emboss pattern retention may improve wicking of fluids
from the point of insult”
• “Provides an option for compressing cores to create higher density
thinner products while retaining softness and flexibility”
• “For higher SAP content cores in retail and light incontinence, our
product may help you to improve SAP retention and eliminate hard
spots for a comfortable and soft absorbent core”
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Domtar Lighthouse fluff
• “Recognized globally for its ease of fiberization, Domtar’s
Lighthouse fluff pulp is a high quality cellulose pulp made using the
world’s best fluff pulp fiber available – loblolly pine from the
Southeastern U.S. forests.
• “This unique wood source produces long bulky fibers that are
perfectly suited for making highly absorbent products that effectively
distribute liquids and provide high pad integrity.
• “Absorbent products made with the quality fibers in Domtar’s
Lighthouse fluff pulp are known for optimum fluid retention, liquid
distribution (wicking) and pad integrity.
• “This is especially important with the demand for thinner products,
such as diapers and with the use of super absorbent polymers.”
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What are fluff pulp mills doing:
address other needs of customers
• Offer value-added capability
– Higher moisture content – getting into same
range as paper-grade pulps
• Compressibility without getting ‘boardy’
• Reduces static in converting operation
– Modified pH to control odor
• Emphasize renewability of resource
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Emphasizing renewable resource aspect
– niche or mass market opportunity?
• UPM Rauma
– “The wood pulp we convert to BIOBRIGHT TCF is bleached
without chemicals containing chlorine.
– “We want to offer our TCF-grades as an alternative to those
producers and consumers who want to choose a product which
is manufactured without any chlorine, chlorine dioxide nor any
other chlorine chemical compounds.
– “By choosing TCF you choose the alternative with no AOX (that
defines the amount of organic chlorine compounds) spreading in
water nor in any environment.”
– Product is FSC and PEFC certified.
– “BIOBROWN is the most environmental friendly, unbleached fluff
pulp choice with beautiful brown colour.”
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About higher moisture content
• Traditional fluff used to be 6-6.5%.
– Fears related to mold growth
– Desire to optimize operation of hammermills
• Common moisture content now in 9.5-10%
range
– Compressibility without getting “boardy”
– Static control in converting plant
– Could current range go higher?
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About optimized pH
• The idea: neutralize ammonia in urine, in
the process keeping pH in optimal range
for skin health.
• What is most economical/effective place to
add the active ammonia-neutralizing
agent?
– Spray on surface of fiber at converting plant
– Incorporate in fiber at the pulp mill
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WEYERHAEUSER CELLULOSE FIBERS
435 SKIN WELLNESS GRADE
Superior Diaper Performance & Function for Baby and Adult Products
Courtesy of N.Milanovich, PhD
nick.milanovich@weyerhaeuser.com
WEYERHAEUSER CELLULOSE FIBERS
435 SKIN WELLNESS GRADE
pH Balanced
1
Organic active ingredient
helps neutralize ammonia
2
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Excellent Core Qualities
Improved densification
Softness
3
Seamless Manufacturing
Conversion
Standard rolls
Fits current production
processes
THE PATH TO HEALTHY SKIN
Urine
Ammonia
Neutralization
435 Skin Wellness
Grade
Lower pH
Ammonia
Healthy Skin
Increased pH
v
Decreased Skin Barrier Function
Standard
Grade
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Healthy Skin
Unhealthy Skin
No Ammonia
+ Ammonia
Play video here
R&D in the pulp industry
• Owners of IP want to control its
commercialization by restricting use
• Restricted sales reduces ability to spread
R&D costs across larger customer base
• P&P as a whole industry does less R&D
in-house than it used to
– Today’s model makes increased use of
private/university partnerships
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Not much patent activity –
compared to some industries
• Two 2014 patents from Nonwovens
Markets with fluff as key to invention
– Weyerhaeuser – sized fluff pulp
– IP – fire-retardant treated fluff pulp web
• Caveats:
– This may not be unusual for a ‘commodity’
sector
– Small sample may not be representative
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Conclusions
• Fluff pulp producers can’t change
progression to thinner products
– Instead, trying to add other areas of value
• In our timeframe, market is moving to
thinner, not thinnest, leaving fluff pulp with
most of its traditional role
• Much of move to ‘thinner’ has already
happened in mature markets
• Significant emerging markets still growing
their use of high fluff-using diapers.
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Thank you for your attention!
For more information:
Nonwovens Markets
Nonwovens Company Profiles
Nonwovens Markets Price Watch
…and more on the way!
www.nonwovens.com
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