Credit Rating System in Banks - An Introduction A K Srivastava, Acs, Practising Company Secretary, Jamshedpur. This article discusses the basic aspects of the need for and the parameters involved in the system of rating credit worthiness of borrowers by commercial banks centered on the system in vogue in PSU Banks with some peeks into the system of Credit Risk Analysis (CRA) in banks in private sector. Introduction The system of rating is changing fast as the banks have to incorporate the emerging issues by assigning some value to them by a process of continuous amendments in parameters involved and their exclusion at other time. The Credit Risk analysis is an important inbuilt system in every bank and provides a basis for objective decision making relating to limit enhancement, financing investment in new business, mergers and acquisitions etc. Borrowers having better rating are in position to bargain for better interest rates in a volatile interest situation much below the PLR of the bank sometimes and also are favoured customers of the bank. It should be noted that the basic parameters are almost similar in all banks - both PSU and private sector banks with some variations. However, the PSU banks have mostly a decentralized system of ratings as compared to banks operating in private sector, both having their own advantages and limitations. Any model, more so financial model, is a time dependent entity. This entity is always a combination of quantifiable and unquantifiable parts commonly referred to as objective and subjective elements in assessment. The degree of subjectivity/ objectivity in a particular scenario is dependent on the level of mathematical technique developed and employed. Both these subjective and objective parameters of assessment may remain in all types of risk rating with different degrees of emphasis depending upon the time and peculiarity of situation. The degree of subjective assessment brings into focus the judgmental aspect which recognizes ultimately the human capabilities which is a combination of qualification, skill, experience and attitude. The subjectivity of course swings from one extreme to the other. The appraiser at the operating level (mostly in decentralized systems) measures the risk or identifies the gaps based on his own assessment. The extent of risk and the human capability to identify that risk becomes central to this measurement process which may be of four types : Future risk unlimited and human capability unlimited ; Future risk unlimited and human capability limited ; Future risk limited and human capability unlimited ; Future risk limited and human capability limited. OVERALL RATING ASSESSMENt The overall rating of a borrower is the aggregate of various factors suitably weighted. These parameters may be classified under the following four/five broad heads: Financial Risk • Quantitative (Static) – Ratios; • Quantitative (Dynamic) – Historical Comparison; • Quantitative (Dynamic) – Industry Comparison; • Qualitative Factors – Negative parameters. Business Risk Industry Risk Management Risk Conduct of Account. RATING SCALE Rating Scale may have 6 to 9 points. Currently one PSU banks rates the accounts on an 8-point scale from B1 to B8 and BTL1 to BTL8 pertaining to working capital and term loan respectively. The bank rating scale corresponds to the following marks (out of a maximum score of 100) : B1/BTL1>= 90 ; B5/BTL>=4 5; B2/BTL2>= 75 ; B6/BTL>=3 5; B3/BTL3>= 65 ; B7/BTL>=2 5; B4/BTL4>= 50 ; B8/BTL< 25 ; B4/BTL4 is currently the hurdle rate of new connections and enhancements in case of existing accounts in terms of their loan policy. Another variation of the above in a private sector bank may be presented as below:SME1>= 85.01 and above ; SME5>= 57.01 to <= 62.00 ; SME2>= 75.01 to >= 85.00 ; SME6>= 51.01 to >= 57.00 ; SME3>= 69.01 to >= 75.00 ; SME7>= 45.01 to >= 51.00 ; SME4>= 62.01 to >= 69.00 ; SME8<= 45.00. STRUCTURE OF CREDIT RISK ANALYSIS The CRA model may be divided into four/five broad heads assigning total value of 100 or more depending upon the system of assigning values prevalent in a bank by aggregating unit values assigned to individual parameters under each head. Briefly the structure may unfold as per the following: Financial Risk The risk under this segment are analyzed as follows: Static Ratios 1. Current Ratio (CA/CL) Max.1.33; Min. 1 2. TOL/TNW <=1.5 to Max. of <= 3 3. PAT/ Net Sales (%) >=7.5 to Min. of >=2.5 4. PBDIT/Interest >=3.5 to Min. of <=1.5 5. Return on Capital Employed ROCE (%) >=15.50 to Min. of >=7 6. INV/Net Sales + Receivables/ <=90 days to Max. Gross Sales <=210 7. Trends in Performance - [In case of trends in performance of the borrower the four years trends of the basic four ratios viz., Current Ratio, TOL/TNW, PAT/Net Sales and Return on Capital Employed are compared. Continuous improvement for three years refers to the maximum score assigned.] Future Prospects Parameter % Achievement Projected Profitability (PAT/ Net Sales) 6% or more up to Minimum of 3% Non-achievement of the above projection below 80% of the projection will square off the score to zero in this segment. Risk Mitigation- Collateral Security/ Financial Standing of the Borrower In case corporate financing a combination of securities and guarantees are involved to secure the loan granted to the borrower by Banks. Collateral Security or Financial Standing of the Borrower is measured under two broad headings: i. Tangible Collateral – This includes, Liquid Collateral Security; and Mortgage of Property. The realizable value of the security is the bench mark for evaluation of such securities for the purpose of scoring marks. Realizable value of Collateral Security at more than 40% of the total exposure secures the highest marks assigned to it. The minimum range is more than 5% of the total exposure to secure at least the minimum marks out of maximum provided in this segment. ii. Guarantees : – There may be a combination of guarantees. The values assigned to different forms of guarantees may be as follows : Type of Guarantee Score 1. Government of India Guarantee 3 2. State Government Guarantee 0 3. Personal Guarantee/Third Party Guarantee 1 4. Corporate Guarantees (of Limited 3 Companies) 5. A Combination of Guarantees 6 Max 6 The corporate guarantees given by a limited company may be rated as per the following : - External Rating Agency CRA Rating of Company furnishing Guarantee AND Additionally TNW of the Guaranteeing Company as % of total exposure of Borrower Score AAA B1/B2 >=300% 3 AA+ B3 >=200%<300 2 AA B4 >=100%<200% 1 The corporate guarantor/borrower is listed company and it issues Bonds/ CPs etc. which are rated or get regularly rated by the established rating agencies, such ratings reflect the financial strength of not only that particular issue but also that of issuer Company itself to a great measure. These ratings give credit enhancement comfort and marks can be awarded to such companies depending on the ratings of their issues as under: CRISIL ICRA SCORE AAA LAAA 6 AA+ LAA+ 5 AA LAA 4 AA- LAA- 3 A+ LA+ 2 A LA 1 Note : - Score assigned to explain the weightage of parameters generally. It should be noted that total score awarded under this segment of Financial Risk Analysis is maximum of 50% of the aggregate total assumed score of 100 taken as a base. This is a major shift as rest 50% or more score is assigned to subjective parameters. Earlier the financial parameters were assigned the total score. Subjective parameters were analyzed to decide whether to finance or not in a sector or to a particular borrower on the basis of specific information available to the bank or procured by the appraiser. Business Risk The risk under this segment may be analyzed by taking into consideration the following parameters with respective value assigned to them as per the practice in vogue in the system. The parameters may be all inclusive as listed below: Technology Capacity Utilization or Break Even Point Compliance with Environment Regulation User/Product Profile Consistency in Quality Distribution Network Consistency in Cash Flows. The borrower operating 30% above its Break Even Point can secure the highest score awarded for that parameter which is high standard set in a PSU bank and is unworkable for many sectors. Non-compliance with the environment laws will give exit option to the bank and compliance under environment laws is mandatory. This is a welcome measure but the ground reality is different. In many States the implementation of environment laws are in total disarray. Unqualified and persons of dubious background have been made State Pollution Control Board Chairmen and members. Procuring a certificate from the State Pollution Control Boards without even partially complying under the conditions prescribed is not unknown. Industry Risk Many banks (especially banks in the private sector) have a centralized system of Industry Risk Rating which is desirable as at branch level the banks may not be having qualified and skilled personnel to analyze the industry risk. In centralized system the bank has its specialized team based at its head office where the skilled personnel are continuously analyzing and rating the industry sectors and therefore, personnel at branch level have no difficulty in deciding whether to grant a loan or not and also the terms and conditions (severe or lenient) in a particular industry sector as they have readymade ratings of various sectors generated out of their own internal data base. This system may include the following parameters : (i) Competition ; (ii) Cyclicality/Industry Outlook ; (iii) Regulatory Risk and (iv) Contemporary issues like WTO. One of the most important risks relating to industry is cyclicality which refers to long term prospect of industry in the background of risk of obsolescence, product replacement, consumer orientation etc. Regulatory risk refers to new laws enacted by Government necessitated by environmental, economic or other considerations. Management Risk The following parameters may be considered by the bank in evaluation of the existing borrower: Integrity/Corporate Governance Track Record Managerial Competence/Commitment Expertise Structure and Systems Experience in the industry Credibility – Ability to meet sales projection Credibility – Ability to meet profit (PAT) projection Payment Record Strategic Initiative Length of Relationship with the bank. In the case of a borrower which is a proprietary or partnership entity the term integrity refers mainly to the reputation of the firm in the market and the integrity of proprietors and partners. The other term namely corporate governance is applicable to all limited companies. Even though the term corporate governance broadly refers to good corporate practices, it is not synonymous to the concept of corporate governance enunciated in the Companies Act, 1956 or clause 49 of the listing agreement at present. However, the terms Independent Directors and Audit Committees are fast gaining their familiarity in the Banking sector and it will be no surprise if banks adopt the concept of Corporate Governance in future as it is understood and implemented in today’s corporate world. Some of parameters of Management risk may be evaluated under Conduct of Accounts. Track record is another important parameter in this segment as the borrower having no irregularity in the account i.e., no overdrawing, no LC devolvement etc. are considered very favourably by the banks for granting working capital enhancements, new loans for setting up new line of business, mergers/takeovers, investments in plant & machinery for capacity increase, etc. The above system is used by banks with some variation here and there but almost uniformily. The system is applicable to borrowers enjoying both Working Capital limit and Term Loan facilities. In case of borrower enjoying both working capital and term loan facility a variation may be added by replacing the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE%) and (Inventory + Receivables)/Net Sales parameter with Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) for all loans in the financial risk segment. In case of only term loan or in case of a new loan the following financial parameters are generally evaluated with parameters in business etc. segments remaining unchanged : Debt/Equity Ratio TOL/TNW (Total outside liability/Total Net Worth) Gross average DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) for the project Gross average DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) for all loans Terms of Repayment. * DSCR = PBDI/Loan Installment + Interest. Repayment over a period of more than 5 years is considered risker and is assigned low weightage. QUALITATIVE FACTORS They are considered negative factor as the total score may be reduced if the negative parameters are more than a reasonable percentage of Total Net Worth and the probability of invocation is positive. The negative parameters include the following: Contingent Liability – Disputed Tax Liabilities and other legal liabilities /pending civil suits. – Claims against company not acknowledged as debt – Corporate Guarantees given without bank’s permission Auditors qualifying remark ; and Accounting Policies – Includes - Inventory Valuation, Depreciation, Capitalization, revaluation, exchange fluctuation, etc. The aggregate value under the above parameters is taken from the Audited Balance Sheet and is assessed on the basis of percentage of probability of invocation assigned to them. An assessed value of more than 10 % of the total net worth may be assigned a higher negative score which will finally be deducted from the total score gained by the borrower under the system of rating explained above. FOOTNOTES: e-mail :akshrivastava@sify.com