Parametric Test Minimum Detectable Difference for Two-Sample t-Test for Means Equation and example adapted from Zar, 1984 2 s 2p δ≥ n where the t parameters are derived from the t table and the variances are pooled. (tα ,v + t β (1),v ) Example: In a two-tailed t-test we are interested in determining the minimum detectible difference between asthma rates Denver, Colorado—essentially how different must the rates be before we detect a difference. Our data set contains monthly asthma rates per 10,000 people for 1992 and 1994. We will use an alpha level of 0.05, have a sample size of 12, and want to have a 90% chance of detecting a difference. Remember that v is the degrees of freedom. α = 0.05 n1 = 12 n2 = 12 v = n1 + n2 - 2 = 12+12 – 2 = 22 t0.05(2), 22 = 2.074 t0.10(1), 22 = 1.321 The first parameter (t0.05(2), 22) is taken from the t table for a 2-tailed test with an 0.05 alpha, and 22 degrees of freedom. The second parameter (t0.10(1), 22) is for 90% confidence (1 - .09 = 0.10), one-tailed test (this parameter is always 1-tailed), and 22 degrees of freedom. Asthma Rate per 10,000 1992 547 518 546 463 427 426 359 377 516 500 433 444 SS1 = 43286 1994 652 524 603 483 489 432 370 446 513 554 537 463 SS2 = 64599 The pooled variance is calculated as: s 2p = s 2p = δ≥ SS1 + SS 2 v1 + v2 where SS1 and SS2 are the sums of squares for each group, and v1 and v2 are the group degrees of freedom. 43286 + 64599 = 4903 .86 11 + 11 2( 4903.86) (2.074 + 1.321) = 408.66 (3.395) = 68.63 24 Therefore the minimum detectable difference for a t-test on these asthma data would be 68.63 cases. Since the average asthma rate for 1992 was about 463 cases, 68.63 cases represents over 15%... they would have to be very different for the t test to detect it! Solution? The sample needs to be larger, but how large? To create a graph showing sample size function for your data set, the minimum detectable difference equation will need to be solved for a variety of sample sizes. These estimates can then be plotted on a graph so that you can determined the best sample size based on your specific needs (See below). Since we have no way of knowing how the sums of squares will change as we increase and decrease the sample size, this method gives us an estimate only. Note that the degrees of freedom (v) will be based on each sample size used. Parametric Test δ≥ 2( 4903.86) ( 2.828 + 1.372) = 980.77 ( 4.200) = 131.53 10 δ≥ 2( 4903.86) ( 2.131 + 1.341) = 653.85 (3.472) = 88.78 15 δ≥ 2( 4903.86) ( 2.086 + 1.325) = 490.39 (3.411) = 75.54 20 δ≥ 2( 4903.86) ( 2.042 + 1.310) = 326.92 (3.352) = 60.61 30 δ≥ 2( 4903.86) ( 2.021 + 1.303) = 245.19 (3.324) = 52.05 40 δ≥ 2( 4903.86) ( 2.009 + 1.299) = 196.15 (3.308) = 46.33 50 δ≥ 2( 4903.86) (1.993 + 1.293) = 130.77 (3.286) = 37.58 75 δ≥ 2( 4903.86) (1.984 + 1.290) = 98.06 (3.274) = 32.42 100 Therefore, if you wanted your minimum detectable difference to be 30 cases (or about 5%) the sample size would have to be close to 100. Also notice that after a sample size of about 100 there are diminishing returns, in that collecting 200 samples would not significantly impact the minimum detectable difference.