SOLAR
HYDRO
WIND
NUCLEAR
COAL
NATURAL
GAS
OTHER
America’s Electricity
Generation Capacity
2015 Update
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America’s Electricity
Generation Capacity
2015 Update
Prepared by
Paul Zummo, Manager, Policy Research and Analysis
American Public Power Association
Published April 2015
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Section 1
Current Generation Capacity ....................................... 1
Section 2
Future Generating Capacity: Fuel Mix .......................... 6
Section 3
Future Generating Capacity: Development Stages ....... 9
Section 4
Future Generating Capacity: Regional Mix ................. 14
Section 5
Future Generating Capacity: Ownership Type ............ 19
Section 6
Generating Capacity:
Retirements and Cancellations .................................. 21
Section 7
Conclusion ................................................................ 30
Appendix 1
Regions ..................................................................... 31
Appendix 2
Regional Fuel Mix ...................................................... 32
Executive
Summary
The American Public Power Association presents the ninth annual report on current
and imminent electricity generation capacity in America by types of fuel, location, and
ownership type.
Currently, America has just over 1.1 million megawatts of generation capacity.
2015 Generation
Capacity
Solar 0.91%
This report analyzes prospective generation capacity in four categories — under
construction, permitted, application pending, and proposed.
Other
Wind 6.33%
5.44%
Hydro
8.42%
Natural Gas
41.88%
Nuclear
9.21%
The largest fuel source is natural gas, accounting for nearly 42 percent of all generation
capacity. Coal, with a share of nearly 28 percent of capacity, is the second largest
generation source. Nuclear, hydro, and wind together account for 23 percent of
capacity. Solar currently constitutes less than one percent of all capacity.
Coal
27.81%
Nearly 372,000 MW of new generation capacity is under development in the United
States — 92,000 MW under construction or permitted, and just under 280,000 MW
proposed or pending application.
Natural gas will continue to be the top fuel source in the near and distant future,
followed by wind. A growing amount of generating capacity is expected to be fueled
by solar. In fact, solar constitutes just over 10 percent of all capacity for plants under
construction and that have permits to start building.
2020 Potential
Generation Capacity
Solar 1.66%
Wind
7.45%
Other
6.08%
Hydro
8.15%
This report also provides information on retirements and planned retirements,
cancellations, and capacity that has been added over the past eight years.
Natural Gas
43.04%
Nuclear
9.35%
Coal
24.27%
While the Southeast has the most generation currently, with 25 percent of the nation’s
total capacity, the Western region is slated to add the most generation, projecting more
than 144,000 MW new capacity.
The report approximates what the U.S. capacity mix will look like by the end of 2020.
Natural gas will continue to be the leading resource.
While the overall capacity mix in the United States will change, it will do so at a gradual
pace. Coal and other traditional forms of electric generation are being displaced by
wind, solar, and other forms of renewable generation. Environmental regulations as well
as the speed at which certain resources can be developed might spur more significant
changes. However, the overall fuel mix five years from now will not be dramatically
different from the current mix.
Source: Data analyzed for this report was taken from the Ventyx Velocity Suite database, accessed
January 2015.
Section 1
Current Generation Capacity
TABLE 1.1 shows the sources from which electricity
is currently generated in America. Current nameplate
capacity includes capacity labeled as standby, but not
mothballed or out of service.
TABLE 1.1
2015 Current Electricity Generation
Capacity, by Fuel Type
Solar 0.91%
Primary Fuel Type
Other
Wind 6.33%
5.44%
Hydro
8.42%
Natural Gas
41.88%
Nuclear
9.21%
Coal
27.81%
Current Nameplate
Capacity (MW)
Natural Gas .................................... 489,327.93
Coal ............................................... 324,908.24
Nuclear .......................................... 107,548.64
Hydro ............................................... 98,381.72
Wind ................................................ 63,588.62
Distillate Fuel Oil ............................... 25,030.22
Residual Fuel Oil ............................... 18,401.80
Solar ................................................ 10,595.40
Wood ................................................. 4,988.27
Wood Waste Liquids ............................ 4,790.95
Geothermal ........................................ 3,869.45
Petroleum Coke ................................. 2,774.20
Waste ................................................ 2,697.75
Landfill Gas ........................................ 2,561.60
Kerosene ............................................ 2,185.70
Other Gas ........................................... 2,042.80
Waste Heat ......................................... 1,131.11
Blast Furnace Gas .................................. 929.60
Jet Fuel Oil ............................................ 537.94
Purchased Steam................................... 419.40
Agricultural Byproduct ............................ 392.50
Other .................................................... 383.24
Biomass Gas ......................................... 354.51
Biomass Solid ........................................ 220.86
Biomass Liquid ...................................... 126.69
Oil Other................................................ 119.91
Biomass Other ........................................... 5.96
Multi-fuel................................................... 4.00
Propane .................................................... 1.63
Total
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
1,168,320.63
Share
...............41.88%
...............27.81%
.................9.21%
.................8.42%
.................5.44%
.................2.14%
.................1.58%
.................0.91%
.................0.43%
.................0.41%
.................0.33%
.................0.24%
.................0.23%
.................0.22%
.................0.19%
.................0.17%
.................0.10%
.................0.08%
.................0.05%
.................0.04%
.................0.03%
.................0.03%
.................0.03%
.................0.02%
.................0.01%
.................0.01%
.................0.00%
.................0.00%
.................0.00%
100.00%
1
TABLE 1.2 shows how America’s current generation
capacity is distributed through the various regions
defined by the North American Electric Reliability
Corporation.
TABLE 1.2
2015 Current Electricity Generation
Capacity, by Region
Region*
Nameplate Capacity (MW)
SERC ............................................. 300,748.59
RFC................................................ 248,602.41
WECC ............................................ 224,848.06
ERCOT ........................................... 101,404.30
NPCC ............................................... 82,326.60
SPP.................................................. 72,112.04
MRO ................................................ 66,759.84
FRCC ............................................... 65,696.33
HCC ................................................... 2,923.05
ASCC ................................................. 2,899.41
Total
* Regions Defined by NERC
Share
.................25.7%
.................21.3%
.................19.2%
...................8.7%
...................7.0%
...................6.2%
...................5.7%
...................5.6%
...................0.3%
...................0.2%
1,168,320.63
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating Council
(not shown on map)
FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council
HCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council (not shown on map)
NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council
MRO: Midwest Reliability Organization
RFC: Reliability First Corporation
SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability Council
SPP: Southwest Power Pool
TRE: Texas Reliability Entity
WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating Council
100.0%
2
As seen in TABLE 1.3, over 177,000 MW of current
generation capacity was added between 2008 and
2014. Nearly three-quarters of this new capacity is
fueled by natural gas or wind, with another 12 percent
coming from coal.
TABLE 1.3
Generation Capacity Additions,
2008 – 2014
Nameplate
Share
Capacity (MW)
Natural Gas ...................................... 74,874.56 ..................42.2%
Wind ................................................ 56,641.15 ..................31.9%
Coal ................................................. 20,557.70 ..................11.6%
Solar ................................................ 11,087.53 ....................6.2%
Hydro ................................................. 5,962.82 ....................3.4%
Wood ................................................. 1,420.47 ....................0.8%
Landfill Gas ........................................ 1,136.34 ....................0.6%
Petroleum Coke .................................. 1,048.20 ....................0.6%
Other Gas ........................................... 1,020.10 ....................0.6%
Geothermal............................................ 787.29 ....................0.4%
Distillate Fuel Oil .................................... 753.22 ....................0.4%
Waste Heat ............................................ 501.29 ....................0.3%
Wood Waste Liquid ................................ 478.30 ....................0.3%
Kerosene ............................................... 440.00 ....................0.2%
Blast Furnace Gas .................................. 171.00 ....................0.1%
Biomass Gas ......................................... 165.67 ....................0.1%
Biomass Solid ........................................ 124.98 ....................0.1%
Biomass Liquid ...................................... 124.09 ....................0.1%
Residual Fuel Oil ...................................... 42.00 ....................0.0%
Waste ................................................... 36.10 ....................0.0%
Agricultural Byproduct .............................. 23.02 ....................0.0%
Other .................................................... 10.70 ....................0.0%
Biomass Other ......................................... 10.56 ....................0.0%
Other Oil.................................................... 9.20 ....................0.0%
Jet Fuel .................................................... 5.20 ....................0.0%
Propane .................................................... 1.63 ....................0.0%
Purchased Steam....................................... 1.00 ....................0.0%
Other
4.7%
Primary Fuel Type
Total
Solar
6.2%
Natural Gas
42.2%
Wind
31.9%
Coal
11.6%
Hydro
3.4%
177,434.11
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
3
TABLE 1.4 shows that in 2014 alone, over 17,000 MW
of generation began operating, with natural gas, wind,
and solar accounting for 83 percent of the new capacity.
TABLE 1.4
Generation Capacity Additions,
2014
Primary Fuel Type
Nameplate
Share
Capacity (MW)
Natural Gas ........................................ 6,651.87 ..................38.2%
Wind .................................................. 4,932.94 ..................28.4%
Solar .................................................. 2,865.74 ..................16.5%
Hydro ................................................. 1,397.00 ....................8.0%
Other Gas .............................................. 839.80 ....................4.8%
Coal ...................................................... 266.20 ....................1.5%
Wood .................................................... 111.50 ....................0.6%
Landfill Gas ............................................. 92.61 ....................0.5%
Geothermal.............................................. 84.50 ....................0.5%
Wood Waste Liquids ................................. 80.60 ....................0.5%
Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 48.05 ....................0.3%
Biomass Gas ........................................... 10.15 ....................0.1%
Other ...................................................... 6.50 ....................0.0%
Waste Heat ................................................ 5.00 ....................0.0%
Biomass Other ........................................... 2.80 ....................0.0%
Biomass Solid ............................................ 1.30 ....................0.0%
Purchased Steam....................................... 1.00 ....................0.0%
Total
17,397.57
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
Other
7.4%
Solar
16.5%
Natural Gas
38.2%
Wind
28.4%
Hydro
8%
Coal
1.5%
100.0%
4
FIGURE 1.1 shows capacity additions between 2008 and 2014, with the fuel mix installed. With the exception of
2012, natural gas has been the leading fuel source added each year, and often by a fairly wide margin. Of note is the
growth in solar capacity added —from 80 MW in 2008 to 2,866 MW in 2014.
FIGURE 1.1
New Generation Installed, 2008-2014
New Generation Installed, 2008-2014
40,000
35,000
MW Capacity
30,000
Other
25,000
Hydro
20,000
Solar
Coal
15,000
Wind
10,000
Natural Gas
5,000
0
2008
2009
2010
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
2011
2012
2013
2014
5
Section 2
Future Generating Capacity:
Fuel Mix
Tables 2.1 – 2.4 show the fuel makeup of America’s
future generation capacity.
TABLE 2.1 shows the sources for the 43,551 MW of
generation capacity under construction. Natural gas
and wind account for over three-quarters of the capacity under construction. Three major nuclear operations
in the Southeast account for all nuclear capacity under
construction.
TABLE 2.1
Plants Under Construction, Fuel Type
Other
1.9%
Solar
6.5%
Natural Gas
43%
Wind
33.7%
Nuclear
13.2%
Hydro
1%
Coal
0.7%
Primary Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Share
Natural Gas ...................................... 18,741.69 ..................43.0%
Wind ................................................ 14,685.70 ..................33.7%
Nuclear .............................................. 5,737.90 ..................13.2%
Solar .................................................. 2,847.65 ....................6.5%
Hydro .................................................... 428.68 ....................1.0%
Coal ...................................................... 320.00 ....................0.7%
Waste ................................................... 278.20 ....................0.6%
Other ................................................. 105.00 ....................0.2%
Wood ...................................................... 88.56 ....................0.2%
Biomass Solid .......................................... 77.50 ....................0.2%
Wood Waste Liquids ................................. 62.00 ....................0.1%
Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 37.50 ....................0.1%
Waste Heat .............................................. 37.23 ....................0.1%
Landfill Gas ............................................. 33.30 ....................0.1%
Geothermal.............................................. 30.18 ....................0.1%
Other Gas ................................................ 17.00 ....................0.0%
Refuse .................................................... 15.79 ....................0.0%
Biomass Gas ............................................. 5.60 ....................0.0%
Biomass Other ........................................... 1.60 ....................0.0%
Total
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
43,551.06
100.0%
6
TABLE 2.2 shows the fuel makeup for plants that have
received permits to construct 48,551 MW of capacity
overall but that have not yet started construction.
Natural gas is the leading resource choice for permitted
plants, accounting for over half of the new capacity.
Wind is second and accounts for nearly a quarter of
potential capacity.
TABLE 2.3 shows the fuel mix for the 79,622 MW of
capacity awaiting approval of applications. Natural
gas is the leading resource choice, accounting for over
40 percent of the capacity. Solar is second, accounting
for 19 percent of the capacity.
TABLE 2.2
TABLE 2.3
Permitted Plants, Fuel Type
Pending Application Plants, Fuel Type
Primary Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Share
Natural Gas ...................................... 25,024.50 ..................51.5%
Wind ................................................ 11,901.28 ..................24.5%
Solar .................................................. 6,517.65 ..................13.4%
Coal ................................................... 2,855.00 ....................5.9%
Geothermal............................................ 740.90 ....................1.5%
Other .................................................... 587.00 ....................1.2%
Hydro .................................................... 477.74 ....................1.0%
Wood .................................................... 298.90 ....................0.6%
Biomass Gas ........................................... 50.00 ....................0.1%
Agricultural Byproduct .............................. 49.90 ....................0.1%
Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 26.00 ....................0.1%
Waste ..................................................... 12.00 ....................0.0%
Landfill Gas ............................................. 10.31 ....................0.0%
Primary Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Share
Natural Gas ...................................... 32,246.37 ..................40.5%
Solar ................................................ 15,269.13 ..................19.2%
Nuclear ............................................ 12,516.00 ..................15.7%
Wind ................................................ 11,067.91 ..................13.9%
Hydro ................................................. 5,923.00 ....................7.4%
Coal ................................................... 1,417.00 ....................1.8%
Geothermal............................................ 408.00 ....................0.5%
Waste Heat ............................................ 361.00 ....................0.5%
Wood .................................................... 194.30 ....................0.2%
Waste ..................................................... 69.80 ....................0.1%
Liquefied Natural Gas ............................... 50.63 ....................0.1%
Agricultural Byproduct .............................. 50.00 ....................0.1%
Landfill Gas ............................................. 33.33 ....................0.0%
Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 11.00 ....................0.0%
Biomass Solid ............................................ 5.00 ....................0.0%
Total
48,551.18
100.0%
Total
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
79,622.47
100.0%
7
TABLE 2.4 shows the resource mix for the 200,273 MW of capacity still in the planning
stages. This is the earliest and most uncertain stage of development, and includes
units that are least likely to be built. Wind power accounts for approximately one-third
of planned capacity with natural gas, hydro, and solar accounting for the bulk of the
remaining capacity.
TABLE 2.4
Proposed Plants, Fuel Type
Primary Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Share
Wind ................................................ 65,986.98 ..................32.9%
Natural Gas ...................................... 44,194.86 ..................22.1%
Hydro ............................................... 33,919.32 ..................16.9%
Solar ................................................ 30,292.19 ..................15.1%
Nuclear ............................................ 15,955.00 ....................8.0%
Coal ................................................... 4,545.00 ....................2.3%
Geothermal......................................... 1,834.70 ....................0.9%
Wood ................................................. 1,019.48 ....................0.5%
Residual Fuel Oil .................................... 632.40 ....................0.3%
Blast Furnace Gas .................................. 600.00 ....................0.3%
Other .................................................... 338.59 ....................0.2%
Waste ................................................... 282.80 ....................0.1%
Landfill Gas ........................................... 163.14 ....................0.1%
Biomass Solid ........................................ 128.63 ....................0.1%
Waste Heat ............................................ 120.00 ....................0.1%
Biomass Gas ........................................... 63.92 ....................0.0%
Jet Fuel ................................................... 60.00 ....................0.0%
Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 53.95 ....................0.0%
Biomass Other ......................................... 53.60 ....................0.0%
Agricultural Byproduct .............................. 19.44 ....................0.0%
Biomass Liquid .......................................... 9.00 ....................0.0%
Total
200,272.98
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
Other
2.7%
Solar
15.1%
Wind
32.9%
Natural Gas
22.1%
Coal
2.3%
Nuclear
8%
Hydro
16.9%
100.0%
8
Section 3
Future Generating Capacity:
Development Stages
FIGURE 3.1 tracks the major fuel sources in each stage
of development. Natural gas is the dominant fuel choice
in the first three stages — under construction, permitted,
and pending application. Wind becomes dominant in the
proposed capacity stage. Figure 1 also shows that the
resource mix is more balanced in the earlier stages of
development.
FIGURE 3.1
Share of Fuel Type: Stage of Development, 2015
Share of Fuel Type: Stage of Development, 2015 60% Percent Share 50% Coal Natural Gas 40% Nuclear 30% Wind Hydro 20% Solar 10% Other 0% Under Construc5on Permi9ed America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
Pending Applica5on Proposed 9
FIGURES 3.2 – 3.5 demonstrate how the fuel mix outlook has changed from 2007 to 2015.
FIGURE 3.2 shows the capacity under construction. The most notable development
is the steep decline in coal under construction — from over 40 percent in 2009 to just
above 1 percent in 2014. Wind capacity under construction has increased from
12 percent in 2007 to over 34 percent in 2015. Natural gas has been by far the most
popular resource in the under construction category from 2007 to 2015.
FIGURE 3.2
Share of Fuel Type: Plants Under Construction, 2007-2015
Figure 3.2
Share of Fuel Type: Plants Under Construction,
2007-2015
Coal
Percent Share
50%
Natural Gas
40%
Nuclear
30%
Wind
20%
Hydro
10%
Solar
Other
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
10
FIGURES 3.3 – 3.4 track fuel types in the permitted and pending application categories,
which show some major fluctuations in the first few years and then become relatively
steady. Coal has declined precipitously — from 50 percent to 6 percent in the
permitted category, and from 48 percent to 2 percent in the application pending
category.
FIGURE 3.3
Share of Fuel Type: Permitted Plants, 2007-2015
Figure 3.3
Share of Fuel Type: Permitted Plants, 2007-2015
60%
Percent Share
50%
Coal
Natural Gas
40%
Nuclear
30%
Wind
Hydro
20%
Solar
10%
Other
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
11
As seen in FIGURE 3.4, the fuel mix in the application pending category varies most
widely, with different fuels like wind, solar, and nuclear emerging in recent years.
FIGURE 3.4
Share of Fuel Type: Application Pending, 2007-2015
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
12
FIGURE 3.5 shows the steep decline in coal for proposed plants, paralleled by the
growth in wind, solar, and natural gas.
FIGURE 3.5
Share of Fuel Type: Proposed Plants, 2007-2015
Figure 3.5
Share of Fuel Type: Proposed Plants, 2007-2015
50%
Percent Share
40%
Coal
Natural Gas
30%
Nuclear
Wind
20%
Hydro
Solar
10%
Other
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
13
Section 4
Future Generating Capacity:
Regional Mix
TABLES 4.1 – 4.4 show where the new plants are
being built or planned for construction by North
American Electric Reliability Corporation regions.
(See Appendix 1 for definition of regions and included
states and Appendix 2 for the fuel mix for each region.)
TABLE 4.1 shows that four regions account for roughly
three-quarters of the capacity under construction.
TABLE 4.1
Plants Under Construction, by Region
Region*
Capacity (MW)
Share
SERC ................................................. 9,046.83 ..................20.8%
RFC.................................................... 8,049.93 ..................18.5%
WECC ................................................ 7,786.19 ..................17.9%
ERCOT ............................................... 7,236.29 ..................16.6%
SPP.................................................... 4,348.25 ..................10.0%
MRO .................................................. 3,748.10 ....................8.6%
FRCC ................................................. 2,591.03 ....................5.9%
ASCC .................................................... 333.50 ....................0.8%
NPCC .................................................... 329.80 ....................0.8%
HCC ........................................................ 81.14 ....................0.2%
Total
43,551.06
100.0%
* Regions Defined by NERC
ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating
Council (not shown on map)
FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council
HCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council
(not shown on map)
NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council
MRO: Midwest Reliability Organization
RFC: Reliability First Corporation
SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability
Council
SPP: Southwest Power Pool
TRE: Texas Reliability Entity
WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating
Council
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
14
TABLE 4.2 shows that the Western Electricity Coordinating Council region has over 30 percent of the permitted
capacity.
TABLE 4.2
Permitted Plants, by Region
Region*
Capacity (MW)
Share
WECC .............................................. 17,142.83 ..................35.3%
ERCOT ............................................. 12,027.60 ..................24.8%
RFC.................................................... 4,974.50 ..................10.2%
SERC ................................................. 4,429.67 ....................9.1%
NPCC ................................................. 4,368.97 ....................9.0%
MRO .................................................. 2,549.40 ....................5.3%
SPP.................................................... 2,093.80 ....................4.3%
FRCC .................................................... 593.00 ....................1.2%
ASCC .................................................... 339.70 ....................0.7%
HCC ........................................................ 31.72 ....................0.1%
Total
48,551.19
100.0%
* Regions Defined by NERC
ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating
Council (not shown on map)
FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council
HCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council
(not shown on map)
NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council
MRO: Midwest Reliability Organization
RFC: Reliability First Corporation
SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability
Council
SPP: Southwest Power Pool
TRE: Texas Reliability Entity
WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating
Council
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
15
TABLES 4.3 and 4.4 show plants in the pending
application and proposed categories, in both of which
WECC has far more potential capacity than any other
region.
TABLE 4.3
TABLE 4.4
Pending Application Plants,
by Region
Proposed Plants, by Region
Region*
Capacity (MW)
Share
WECC .............................................. 34,329.53 ..................43.1%
ERCOT ............................................. 17,377.22 ..................21.8%
RFC.................................................. 12,415.60 ..................15.6%
SERC ................................................. 6,856.88 ....................8.6%
NPCC ................................................. 4,002.67 ....................5.0%
FRCC ................................................. 3,060.00 ....................3.8%
MRO .................................................. 1,052.04 ....................1.3%
SPP....................................................... 261.80 ....................0.3%
HCC ...................................................... 197.93 ....................0.2%
ASCC ...................................................... 68.80 ....................0.1%
Total
79,622.47
Region*
Capacity (MW)
Share
WECC .............................................. 85,699.61 ..................42.8%
RFC.................................................. 29,539.95 ..................14.7%
SERC ............................................... 24,666.25 ..................12.3%
MRO ................................................ 15,977.90 ....................8.0%
ERCOT ............................................. 14,445.20 ....................7.2%
SPP.................................................. 11,611.20 ....................5.8%
NPCC ................................................. 8,893.43 ....................4.4%
FRCC ................................................. 5,238.92 ....................2.6%
ASCC ................................................. 3,505.04 ....................1.8%
HCC ...................................................... 695.48 ....................0.3%
Total
200,272.98
100.0%
100.0%
* Regions Defined by NERC
ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating
Council (not shown on map)
FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council
HCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council
(not shown on map)
NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council
MRO: Midwest Reliability Organization
RFC: Reliability First Corporation
SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability
Council
SPP: Southwest Power Pool
TRE: Texas Reliability Entity
WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating
Council
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
16
TABLES 4.5 and 4.6 show the fuels of choice for proposed capacity by development stage.
As seen in TABLE 4.5, for plants most certain to be built — those already under construction or permitted — natural
gas and wind account for over 76 percent of the capacity, with solar contributing another 10 percent.
TABLE 4.5
Plants Under Construction and
Permitted, by Fuel Type
Primary Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Share
Natural Gas ...................................... 43,766.19 ..................47.5%
Wind ................................................ 26,586.98 ..................28.9%
Solar .................................................. 9,365.29 ..................10.2%
Nuclear .............................................. 5,737.90 ....................6.2%
Coal ................................................... 3,175.00 ....................3.4%
Hydro .................................................... 906.42 ....................1.0%
Geothermal............................................ 771.08 ....................0.8%
Other .................................................... 692.00 ....................0.8%
Wood .................................................... 387.46 ....................0.4%
Waste ................................................... 290.20 ....................0.3%
Biomass Solid .......................................... 77.50 ....................0.1%
Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 63.50 ....................0.1%
Wood Waste Liquids ................................. 62.00 ....................0.1%
Biomass Gas ........................................... 55.60 ....................0.1%
Agricultural Byproduct .............................. 49.90 ....................0.1%
Landfill Gas ............................................. 43.61 ....................0.0%
Waste Heat .............................................. 37.23 ....................0.0%
Other Gas ................................................ 17.00 ....................0.0%
Refuse .................................................... 15.79 ....................0.0%
Biomass Other ........................................... 1.60 ....................0.0%
Total
92,102.24
Other
2.8%
Solar
10.2%
Natural Gas
47.5%
Wind
28.9%
Hydro
1%
Nuclear
6.2%
Coal
3.4%
100.0%
Nearly half of the capacity under construction and permitted is in WECC and Electric Reliability Council of Texas
regions, with another 28.7 percent in Reliability First Corporation and Southeastern Electric Reliability Council regions.
Natural gas is the primary resource in the ERCOT and RFC regions as well as in the Florida Reliability Coordinating
Council and Northeast Power Coordinating Council regions. In each of these four regions, natural gas accounts for at
least two-thirds of future capacity.
There is a general increase in planned solar capacity. Just under 88 percent of solar capacity in the permitted and
under construction stages is located in the WECC region. Four regions account for nearly 85 percent of new wind
capacity — ERCOT and WECC as well as the Midwest Reliability Organization and Southwest Power Pool regions.
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
17
As seen in TABLE 4.6, for plants in the more distant future — those that are proposed or pending application —
the fuel mix tends more toward wind and other renewable resources, compared to plants that are scheduled to
come online in the near future. There is almost as much natural gas capacity as wind in these stages.
TABLE 4.6
Proposed and Application Pending
Plants, by Fuel Type
Primary Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Share
Wind ................................................ 77,054.89 ..................27.5%
Natural Gas ...................................... 76,441.23 ..................27.3%
Solar ................................................ 45,561.32 ..................16.3%
Hydro ............................................... 39,842.31 ..................14.2%
Nuclear ............................................ 28,471.00 ..................10.2%
Coal ................................................... 5,962.00 ....................2.1%
Geothermal......................................... 2,242.70 ....................0.8%
Wood ................................................. 1,213.78 ....................0.4%
Residual Fuel Oil .................................... 632.40 ....................0.2%
Blast Furnace Gas .................................. 600.00 ....................0.2%
Waste Heat ............................................ 481.00 ....................0.2%
Waste ................................................... 352.60 ....................0.1%
Other .................................................... 338.59 ....................0.1%
Landfill Gas ........................................... 196.47 ....................0.1%
Biomass Solid ........................................ 133.63 ....................0.0%
Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 64.95 ....................0.0%
Biomass Gas ........................................... 63.92 ....................0.0%
Agricultural Byproduct .............................. 63.14 ....................0.0%
Jet Fuel ................................................... 60.00 ....................0.0%
Biomass Other ......................................... 53.60 ....................0.0%
Liquefied Natural Gas ............................... 50.63 ....................0.0%
Biomass Liquid .......................................... 9.00 ....................0.0%
Total
279,889.15
Other
2.4%
Solar
16.3%
Natural Gas
27.3%
Wind
27.5%
Nuclear
10.2%
Coal
2.1%
Hydro
14.2%
100.0%
Wind is slated to account for twenty percent or more of new capacity in all but the Alaska and Florida regions and is
the leading resource in four regions. Nearly 83 percent of the proposed or application pending solar capacity is located in WECC, a region that accounts for much of the future renewable capacity, and for nearly half of all capacity in
the proposed and application pending stages. Other forms of renewable energy, particularly wood, waste, and waste
heat, are more dispersed through the various regions.
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
18
Section 5
Future Generating Capacity:
Ownership Type
TABLE 5.1 shows that for plants under construction,
most of the capacity is owned by non-utility generators,
while regulated utilities collectively account for over
40 percent of the capacity.
Analysis of future generation capacity by ownership
is summarized in Tables 5.1 – 5.4.
TABLE 5.1
Plants Under Construction,
by Ownership
Investor
Owned
25.4%
Non-utility
Generators
58.9%
Public Power
10.6%
Federal 3%
Co-op 2.2%
Public Power
2.4%
Co-op 3.9%
Investor
Owned
4.5%
Non-utility
Generators
89.1%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
Utility Type
Capacity (MW)
Share
Investor Owned ................................. 11,052.99 ..................25.4%
Public Power ...................................... 4,597.56 ..................10.6%
Federal............................................... 1,290.40 ....................3.0%
Co-op.................................................... 979.18 ....................2.2%
Regulated Total .............................. 17,920.13 ..................41.1%
Non-utility Generators ....................... 25,630.93 ..................58.9%
Total
43,551.06
100.0%
TABLE 5.2
Permitted Plants, by Ownership
Ownership
Capacity (MW)
Share
Investor Owned .................................. 2,172.67 ...................4.5%
Co-op................................................. 1,915.00 ...................3.9%
Public Power ...................................... 1,179.60 ...................2.4%
Federal.................................................... 15.00 ...................0.0%
Regulated Total ................................ 5,282.27 ..................10.9%
Non-utility Generators ....................... 43,268.92 ..................89.1%
Total
48,551.19
100.0%
19
TABLES 5.2 – 5.4 show that non-utility generators
account for significant capacity in the earlier stages
of development.
Of note in TABLE 5.4 is that for proposed plants,
generation owned by public power has the largest
share of capacity among utilities.
TABLE 5.3
TABLE 5.4
Pending Application Plants,
by Ownership
Proposed Plants, by Ownership
Ownership
Capacity (MW)
Investor Owned ................................... 9,368.13
Co-op................................................. 2,148.47
Public Power ...................................... 1,571.59
Federal.................................................... 11.00
Regulated Total .............................. 13,099.20
Non-utility Generators ....................... 66,523.28
Total
Share
.................14.1%
...................3.2%
...................2.4%
...................0.0%
.................16.5%
.................83.5%
79,622.47
Investor
Owned
14.1%
Ownership
Capacity (MW)
Public Power .................................... 12,375.95
Investor Owned ................................. 10,897.47
Federal............................................... 4,940.50
Co-op................................................. 2,869.67
Regulated Total .............................. 31,083.59
Non-utility Generators ..................... 169,189.40
Total
200,272.98
Share
...................6.2%
...................5.4%
...................2.5%
...................1.4%
.................15.5%
.................84.5%
100.0%
100.0%
Public Power
2.4%
Co-op
3.2%
Non-utility
Generators
83.5%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
Investor Owned
5.4% Public Power
6.2%
Federal 2.5%
Co-op 1.4%
Non-utility
Generators
84.5%
20
Section 6
Generating Capacity:
Retirements and Cancellations
TABLES 6.1 and 6.2 show generation capacity retirements by fuel type between 2008 and 2014, when just
over 66,000 MW of capacity was retired. Over 77 percent of this retired capacity was natural gas or coal, and
14 percent was oil. More than 84 percent of the retired
natural gas capacity used steam turbines.
TABLE 6.1
Retired Plants by Fuel Type,
2008-2014
Wind
0.2%
Hydro
1.4%
Nuclear
5.7%
Other
15.9%
Natural Gas
35.2%
Coal
41.6%
Primary Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Share
Coal ................................................. 27,717.50 ..................41.6%
Natural Gas ...................................... 23,487.80 ..................35.2%
Residual Fuel Oil ................................. 6,308.10 ....................9.5%
Nuclear .............................................. 3,781.47 ....................5.7%
Distillate Fuel Oil ................................. 3,022.79 ....................4.5%
Hydro .................................................... 938.25 ....................1.4%
Petroleum Coke ..................................... 323.50 ....................0.5%
Wood Waste Liquid ................................ 187.30 ....................0.3%
Blast Furnace Gas .................................. 171.20 ....................0.3%
Wood .................................................. 166.80 ....................0.3%
Landfill Gas ........................................... 150.20 ....................0.2%
Wind ..................................................... 133.60 ....................0.2%
Other .................................................... 67.00 ....................0.1%
Waste ..................................................... 44.70 ....................0.1%
Geothermal.............................................. 40.20 ....................0.1%
Other Gas ................................................ 37.50 ....................0.1%
Purchased Steam..................................... 37.00 ....................0.1%
Jet Fuel ................................................... 17.40 ....................0.0%
Biomass Liquid ........................................ 15.80 ....................0.0%
Biomass Gas ............................................. 7.00 ....................0.0%
Solar ......................................................... 3.50 ....................0.0%
Other Oil.................................................... 3.00 ....................0.0%
Total
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
66,661.61
100.0%
21
More than 7,000 MW of capacity was retired in 2014
alone, of which coal accounted for over 60 percent.
Over 54,000 MW of current operating capacity is
scheduled to retire by 2020, two-thirds of which is coal.
Almost all planned natural gas retirements are powered
by steam or gas combustion turbines.
TABLE 6.3 reflects planned retirements that have been
publicly announced.
TABLE 6.2
TABLE 6.3
Retired Plants by Fuel Type, 2014
Planned Retirements to 2020,
by Fuel Type
Primary Fuel
Capacity (MW)
Coal ................................................... 4,509.60
Natural Gas ........................................ 1,534.30
Residual Fuel Oil .................................... 490.50
Distillate Fuel Oil .................................... 254.95
Hydro .................................................... 212.50
Petroleum Coke ..................................... 184.00
Wood Waste Liquids ................................. 88.70
Wind ....................................................... 63.60
Landfill Gas ............................................. 10.60
Jet Fuel ..................................................... 1.20
Total
Share
.................61.4%
.................20.9%
...................6.7%
...................3.5%
...................2.9%
...................2.5%
...................1.2%
...................0.9%
...................0.1%
...................0.0%
7,349.95
100.0%
Primary Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Coal ................................................. 35,419.20
Natural Gas ...................................... 13,987.30
Residual Fuel Oil ................................. 1,465.20
Distillate Fuel Oil ................................. 1,240.70
Hydro ................................................. 1,018.00
Nuclear ................................................. 550.00
Kerosene ............................................... 418.50
Wind ..................................................... 279.35
Landfill Gas ............................................. 22.30
Biomass Gas ............................................. 3.50
Total
% Planned
Retirement
Capacity
.................65.1%
.................25.7%
...................2.7%
...................2.3%
...................1.9%
...................1.0%
...................0.8%
...................0.5%
...................0.0%
...................0.0%
54,404.05
100.0%
Other
Wind
Hydro 0.5% 5.8%
1.9%
Nuclear
1%
Natural Gas
25.7%
Coal
65.1%
s
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
22
More than 52,000 MW of planned capacity additions was canceled in 2014, nearly
triple the amount of capacity added to the grid. Wind and solar constituted 84 percent
of this canceled capacity.
TABLE 6.4
Plant Cancellations, 2014
Primary Fuel Type
Nameplate
Share
Capacity (MW)
Wind ................................................ 28,226.05 ..................54.0%
Solar ................................................ 15,749.02 ..................30.1%
Natural Gas ........................................ 3,404.77 ....................6.5%
Hydro ................................................. 2,820.42 ....................5.4%
Geothermal............................................ 902.00 ....................1.7%
Coal ...................................................... 478.50 ....................0.9%
Waste ................................................... 262.80 ....................0.5%
Wood .................................................... 242.60 ....................0.5%
Landfill Gas ............................................. 81.44 ....................0.2%
Biomass Gas ........................................... 49.00 ....................0.1%
Other Gas ................................................ 10.00 ....................0.0%
Biomass Solid ............................................ 8.60 ....................0.0%
Distillate Fuel Oil ........................................ 2.98 ....................0.0%
Total
52,238.16
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
100.0%
23
Since 2008, nearly 378,000 MW of planned capacity additions were ultimately
canceled, more than double the amount that was actually added. Wind represents
one-third of this canceled capacity. Nearly equal shares of coal, natural gas, hydro,
and solar were also canceled during this time.
TABLE 6.5
Plant Cancellations, 2008-2014
Nameplate
Share
Capacity (MW)
Wind
124,583.27
33.0%
Coal ................................................. 55,838.50 ..................14.8%
Natural Gas ...................................... 54,026.96 ..................14.3%
Hydro ............................................... 53,542.85 ..................14.2%
Solar ................................................ 50,870.05 ..................13.5%
Nuclear ............................................ 23,130.00 ....................6.1%
Petroleum Coke .................................. 5,060.20 ....................1.3%
Wood ................................................. 3,540.03 ....................0.9%
Geothermal......................................... 1,700.00 ....................0.4%
Other Gas ........................................... 1,646.00 ....................0.4%
Biomass Gas ...................................... 1,198.05 ....................0.3%
Waste ................................................... 716.30 ....................0.2%
Other .................................................. 681.20 ....................0.2%
Biomass Gas ......................................... 469.60 ....................0.1%
Landfill Gas ........................................... 327.52 ....................0.1%
Agricultural Byproduct ............................ 280.32 ....................0.1%
Waste Heat ............................................ 125.80 ....................0.0%
Biomass Gas ........................................... 96.04 ....................0.0%
Kerosene ................................................. 49.20 ....................0.0%
Biomass Other ......................................... 30.00 ....................0.0%
Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 21.98 ....................0.0%
Wood Waste Liquids ................................... 3.80 ....................0.0%
Other
4.1%
Primary Fuel Type
Total
377,937.66
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
Solar
13.5%
Natural Gas
14.3%
Coal
14.8%
Wind
33%
Nuclear
6.1%
Hydro
14.2%
100.0%
24
FIGURE 6.1 shows additions, cancellations, and retirements from 2008 to 2014.
Natural gas is the only resource for which additions outnumber cancellations.
For all other resources, far more capacity was cancelled than was added.
FIGURE 6.1
Additions, Cancellations, and Retirements, 2008-2014
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
25
Impending environmental regulations have made coal capacity especially vulnerable to retirements, with nearly 37
gigawatts of existing capacity likely to retire by 2020.1 Some states have much more coal capacity at risk than others.
Table 6.6 shows current coal capacity and planned retirements and additions in each state.
In several states with large amounts of planned retirements, there is not a corresponding amount of capacity currently
under construction or permitted. Conversely, several states have much more capacity under development than facing
retirement.
TABLE 6.6 compares coal to planned natural gas, wind, and total capacity additions. While natural gas additions
will equal or exceed coal retirements in many states, added wind capacity will make up for coal retirements in other
states.
TABLE 6.6
Coal Retirements and Additions
State
Total
Capacity
(MW)
Current Coal
Capacity
(MW)
Anounced
Coal
Retirements
(MW)
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
34,408.63
2,899.41
31,554.59
16,789.69
80,610.12
16,884.84
9,821.67
3,255.94
10.80
68,510.13
42,111.66
3,027.45
4,987.74
51,822.09
30,858.83
17,263.00
15,607.03
25,028.54
29,400.63
4,843.89
13,676.60
14,788.18
33,485.33
17,933.74
11,797.20
113.50
6,690.80
5,287.00
238.70
5,705.10
400.00
442.40
0.00
11,361.70
13,444.20
203.00
18.90
17,355.80
20,688.80
7,168.41
5,384.80
17,822.70
3,764.30
0.00
5,139.20
1,160.30
12,339.90
5,353.90
Planned
Coal
Additions
(MW)
Planned
Natural Gas
Additions
(MW)
Planned
Wind
Additions
(MW)
2,594.20
32.50
1,092.00
300.00
1,050.00
17.60
51.00
115.50
365.20
4,460.20
665.60
911.10
298.70
24.80
309.20
1,252.70
2,441.90
6.20
1,218.40
2,522.80
689.80
49.00
3,057.50
46.00
1,328.40
1,154.60
2,429.70
785.50
850.00
520.00
895.00
3,264.20
760.00
5.49
571.00
644.00
870.00
246.20
690.00
629.40
866.00
1,394.00
143.90
227.70
1,202.40
280.00
1,557.05
1,884.10
277.40
190.00
468.60
134.40
1,274.50
Total Planned
Capacity
Additions
(MW)
62.00
673.20
2,010.30
1.80
10,933.99
1,114.30
27.26
309.20
3,184.03
4,105.76
112.86
817.19
1,820.66
937.00
2,482.05
3,026.30
968.80
629.40
282.40
1,219.00
1,958.36
279.34
1,274.50
continued on next page
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
26
TABLE 6.6
Coal Retirements and Additions (continued from page 26)
State
Total
Capacity
(MW)
Current Coal
Capacity
(MW)
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Total
17,926.38
23,643.37
6,530.70
9,378.85
12,578.38
4,896.07
20,457.76
8,811.89
44,068.69
33,165.35
7,139.81
34,971.12
25,322.14
14,602.97
47,058.53
2,074.35
24,579.45
4,242.20
23,923.65
122,043.07
8,940.77
1,435.65
28,268.67
31,500.66
17,213.39
19,369.78
8,889.02
1,172,613.18
2,887.50
12,878.00
2,676.60
4,274.00
1,445.80
559.20
2,003.00
3,741.20
2,170.70
10,957.10
4,363.40
19,498.50
5,844.00
601.00
15,628.40
0.00
6,277.70
456.00
9,210.70
25,354.80
5,218.89
0.00
5,890.20
1,459.80
15,019.93
8,410.10
6,755.80
325,462.93
Anounced
Coal
Retirements
(MW)
Planned
Coal
Additions
(MW)
365.10
Planned
Natural Gas
Additions
(MW)
Planned
Wind
Additions
(MW)
27.60
240.00
303.90
200.10
8.55
73.50
294.80
50.00
2,105.00
924.00
204.50
40.00
2,128.00
475.00
90.00
2,754.00
103.00,
662.00
2,823.00
3,154.80
1,013.00
601.00
1,342.00
815.00
107.80
80.00
1,538.50
1,054.29
1,713.55
1,258.50
45.00
366.00
750.00
402.05
2,511.20
558.00
296.10
593.00
729.90
1,802.70
802.40
7.00
36,910.90
240.00
13,924.70
5.90
6,084.40
140.00
30.00
1,358.00
670
3,175.00
44,075.39
267.00
52.50
102.50
3,269.00
26,511.98
Total Planned
Capacity
Additions
(MW)
31.51
255.00
303.90
1,915.20
8.55
2,171.80
904.07
2,300.85
1,035.18
1,628.50
3,811.69
1,816.55
2,227.07
2,924.10
45.23
3,019.00
402.05
1,303.50
21,186.09
545.90
76.12
1,391.70
417.00
110.50
102.50
3,939.00
92,102.24
This total includes 35,419 MW of announced coal retirements plus an additional 1,500 MW of coal capacity that Ventyx estimates is likely to
retire based on certain criteria. This does not include unannounced retirements and other coal capacity vulnerable to retirement if more stringent
regulations are put in place.
1
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
27
TABLE 6.7 combines current operating capacity with planned capacity additions and retirements to demonstrate the
shift in electricity generation in America by 2020. This table only includes plants permitted and under construction
because proposed capacity is uncertain. Planned retirements and additions can and most likely will change.
The table shows the continued prominence of natural gas-fired generation. Solar capacity does not require as much
lead time to be developed as other fuels, so this table likely undercounts the amount of solar and wind capacity that
will be online in the future.
TABLE 6.7
Net Potential Generation Capacity by 2020
Primary Fuel Type
Existing
Nameplate
Capacity in
2015 (MW)
Percent
Capacity
in 2015
Planned
Added
Capacity
(MW)
Existing Plus
Planned
Added
Capacity
Planned
Net Potential
Retirements Cacpacity in
by 2020
2020 (MW)
(MW)
Percent
Increase
in Capacity
by 2020
Potential
Percent
Capacity
in 2020
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Distillate Fuel Oil
Oil
Solar
Wood
Wood Waste Liquids
Geothermal
Petroleum Coke
Waste
Landfill Gas
Kerosene
Other Gas
Waste Heat
Blast Furnace Gas
Jet Fuel Oil
Purchased Steam
Agricultural Byproduct
Other
Biomass Gas
Biomass Solid
489,327.93
324,908.24
107,548.64
98,381.72
63,588.62
25,030.22
18,401.80
10,595.40
4,988.27
4,790.95
3,869.45
2,774.20
2,697.75
2,561.60
2,185.70
2,042.80
1,131.11
929.60
537.94
419.40
392.50
383.24
354.51
220.86
41.88%
27.81%
9.21%
8.42%
5.44%
2.14%
1.58%
0.91%
0.43%
0.41%
0.33%
0.24%
0.23%
0.22%
0.19%
0.17%
0.10%
0.08%
0.05%
0.04%
0.03%
0.03%
0.03%
0.02%
43,766.19
3,175.00
5,737.90
906.42
26,586.98
63.50
533,094.12
328,083.24
113,286.54
99,288.14
90,175.60
25,093.72
18,401.80
19,960.70
5,375.72
4,852.95
4,640.53
2,774.20
2,987.95
2,605.21
2,185.70
2,059.80
1,168.34
929.60
537.94
419.40
442.40
1,091.03
410.11
298.36
13,987.30
35,419.20
550.00
1,018.00
279.35
1,240.70
1,465.20
6.1%
-9.9%
4.8%
-0.1%
41.4%
-4.7%
-8.0%
88.4%
7.8%
1.3%
19.9%
0.0%
10.8%
0.8%
-19.1%
0.8%
3.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
12.7%
184.7%
14.7%
35.1%
43.04%
24.27%
9.35%
8.15%
7.45%
1.98%
1.40%
1.66%
0.45%
0.40%
0.38%
0.23%
0.25%
0.21%
0.15%
0.17%
0.10%
0.08%
0.04%
0.03%
0.04%
0.09%
0.03%
0.02%
9,365.29
387.46
62.00
771.08
290.20
43.61
17.00
37.23
49.90
707.79
55.60
77.50
22.30
418.50
3.50
519,106.82
292,664.04
112,736.54
98,270.14
89,896.25
23,853.02
16,936.60
19,960.70
5,375.72
4,852.95
4,640.53
2,774.20
2,987.95
2,582.91
1,767.20
2,059.80
1,168.34
929.60
537.94
419.40
442.40
1,091.03
406.61
298.36
continued on page 29
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
28
TABLE 6.7
Net Potential Generation Capacity by 2020 (continued from page 28)
Primary Fuel Type
Existing
Nameplate
Capacity in
2015 (MW)
Percent
Capacity
in 2015
Biomass Liquid
Oil Other
Biomass Other
MultiFuel
Propane
Total
126.69
119.91
5.96
4.00
1.63
1,168,320.63
0.01%
0.01%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
100.00%
2020 Potential
Generation Capacity
Planned
Added
Capacity
(MW)
1.60
92,102.24
Solar
1.66%
Wind
7.45%
Existing Plus
Planned
Added
Capacity
Planned
Net Potential
Retirements Cacpacity in
by 2020
2020 (MW)
(MW)
126.69
119.91
7.56
4.00
1.63
1,260,422.87
126.69
119.91
7.56
4.00
1.63
1,206,018.82
54,404.05
Percent
Increase
in Capacity
by 2020
Potential
Percent
Capacity
in 2020
0.0%
0.0%
26.8%
0.0%
0.0%
3.2%
0.01%
0.01%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
100.00%
Other
6.08%
Hydro
8.15%
Natural Gas
43.04%
Nuclear
9.35%
Coal
24.27%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
29
Section 7
Conclusion
The rate of new capacity additions has slowed over the
past couple of years, but the trends in new capacity
development have remained consistent. Natural gas
continues to be the leading resource for current and
future capacity, while wind and solar are making greater
inroads into the nation’s overall electricity generation
capacity.
The data on cancellations and additions illustrates that
while the overall capacity mix in the United States will
change, it will do so at a gradual pace. Coal and other
traditional forms of electric generation are being displaced by wind, solar, and other forms of renewable
generation. Environmental regulations as well as the
speed at which certain resources can be developed
might spur more significant changes. However, the
overall fuel mix five years hence will not be dramatically
different from the current mix.
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
30
Appendix 1
Regions
This report uses regions defined by the North American Electric Reliability Council:
ASCC - Alaska Systems Coordinating Council (not shown on map)
FRCC – Florida Reliability Coordinating Council
HCC – Hawaii Coordinating Council (not shown on map)
NPCC - Northeast Power Coordinating Council
MRO – Midwest Reliability Organization
RFC – Reliability First Corporation
SERC - Southeastern Electric Reliability Council
SPP – Southwest Power Pool
TRE – Texas Reliability Entity*
WECC - Western Electricity Coordinating Council
* The Independent System Operator that operates the electric grid for nearly all of the state of Texas is the
Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and is the name used for this region in the report. The Texas
Reliability Entity (TRE) monitors and enforces compliance with reliability standards for NERC.
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
31
Appendix 2
Regional Fuel Mix
Permitted Plants and Plants Under Construction: Fuel Mix by Region
Region
ASCC
ERCOT
Fuel Type
Hydro
Natural Gas
Wind
Distillate Fuel Oil
Total
Natural Gas
Wind
Other
Coal
Solar
Wood
Refuse
Total
Capacity (MW)
Share of Region’s
New Fuel Capacity
Share of Selected Fuel’s
Emerging Capacity
351.20
300.00
17.60
4.40
673.20
52.2%
44.6%
2.6%
0.7%
38.7%
0.7%
0.1%
6.9%
13,059.70
5,334.20
332.00
240.00
219.20
63.00
15.79
19,263.89
67.8%
27.7%
1.7%
1.2%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
29.8%
20.1%
48.0%
7.6%
2.3%
16.3%
FRCC
Natural Gas
Waste
Solar
Waste Heat
Biomass Solid
Biomass Gas
Total
2,955.00
95.00
76.50
35.03
18.50
4.00
3,184.03
92.8%
3.0%
2.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.1%
6.8%
32.7%
0.8%
94.1%
23.9%
7.2%
HCC
Solar
Biomass Solid
Hydro
Waste
Wood
Total
50.59
28.00
14.72
12.00
7.56
112.86
44.8%
24.8%
13.0%
10.6%
6.7%
0.5%
36.1%
1.6%
4.1%
1.9%
MRO
Wind
Natural Gas
Hydro
Total
5,282.50
960.00
55.00
6,297.50
83.9%
15.2%
0.9%
19.9%
2.2%
6.1%
continued on next page
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
32
Permitted Plants and Plants Under Construction: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 32)
Region
NPCC
RFC
SERC
Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Share of Region’s
New Fuel Capacity
Share of Selected Fuel’s
Emerging Capacity
3,522.00
962.15
99.63
72.00
21.99
21.00
4,698.77
75.0%
20.5%
2.1%
1.5%
0.5%
0.4%
8.0%
3.6%
1.1%
18.6%
2.4%
7.2%
Natural Gas
Wind
Hydro
Waste
Solar
Other
Biomass Solid
Distillate Fuel Oil
Total
10,216.10
2,192.09
250.90
157.00
113.84
90.00
3.00
1.50
13,024.43
78.4%
16.8%
1.9%
1.2%
0.9%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
23.3%
8.2%
27.7%
54.1%
1.2%
13.0%
3.9%
2.4%
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Coal
Wind
Solar
Wood
Hydro
Wood Waste Liquid
Biomass Gas
Landfill Gas
Biomass Solid
Waste
Biomass Other
Total
5,737.90
5,139.00
850.00
697.50
598.18
149.00
119.12
62.00
50.00
39.01
28.00
5.20
1.60
13,476.51
42.6%
38.1%
6.3%
5.2%
4.4%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
11.7%
26.8%
2.6%
6.4%
38.5%
13.1%
100.0%
89.9%
89.5%
36.1%
1.8%
100.0%
Natural Gas
Wind
Solar
Wood
Hydro
Waste
Total
continued on next page
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
33
Permitted Plants and Plants Under Construction: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 33)
Region
SPP
WECC
Fuel Type
Wind
Coal
Natural Gas
Other
Solar
Total
Solar
Wind
Natural Gas
Coal
Geothermal
Wood
Hydro
Distillate Fuel Oil
Agricultural Byproduct
Other Gas
Landfill Gas
Waste Heat
Biomass Gas
Total
Capacity (MW)
Share of Region’s
New Fuel Capacity
Share of Selected Fuel’s
Emerging Capacity
4,862.85
895.00
413.20
270.00
1.00
6,442.05
75.5%
13.9%
6.4%
4.2%
0.0%
18.3%
28.2%
0.9%
39.0%
0.0%
8,206.36
7,238.10
7,201.19
1,190.00
771.08
95.90
93.50
57.60
49.90
17.00
4.60
2.20
1.60
24,929.02
32.9%
29.0%
28.9%
4.8%
3.1%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
87.6%
27.2%
16.5%
37.5%
100.0%
24.8%
10.3%
90.7%
100.0%
100.0%
10.5%
5.9%
2.9%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
34
Proposed Plants and Plants Pending Application: Fuel Mix by Region
Region
Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Share of Region’s
New Fuel Capacity
Share of Selected Fuel’s
Emerging Capacity
ASCC
Hydro
Coal
Geothermal
Jet Fuel
Wind
Distillate Fuel Oil
Total
3,239.24
120.00
110.00
60.00
41.60
3.00
3,573.84
90.6%
3.4%
3.1%
1.7%
1.2%
0.1%
8.1%
2.0%
4.9%
100.0%
0.1%
4.6%
ERCOT
Natural Gas
Wind
Nuclear
Coal
Solar
Waste Heat
Biomass Liquid
Total
16,788.97
9,652.45
2,716.00
1,500.00
890.00
266.00
9.00
31,822.42
52.8%
30.3%
8.5%
4.7%
2.8%
0.8%
0.0%
22.0%
12.5%
9.5%
25.2%
2.0%
55.3%
100.0%
3,493.77
3,000.00
1,292.85
459.60
13.00
26.30
9.00
4.40
8,298.92
42.1%
36.1%
15.6%
5.5%
0.2%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
4.6%
10.5%
2.8%
37.9%
3.7%
0.1%
4.6%
1.3%
565.00
100.00
72.00
50.63
50.00
15.00
12.50
10.00
7.30
6.00
4.98
893.41
63.2%
11.2%
8.1%
5.7%
5.6%
1.7%
1.4%
1.1%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.7%
4.5%
0.2%
100.0%
79.2%
7.6%
0.0%
15.4%
2.1%
4.5%
0.4%
FRCC
HCC
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Solar
Wood
Waste
Hydro
Landfill Gas
Other
Total
Wind
Geothermal
Solar
Liquified Natural Gas
Agricultural Byproduct
Landfill Gas
Hydro
Distillate Fuel Oil
Waste
Biomass Solid
Wood
Total
continued on next page
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
35
Proposed Plants and Plants Pending Application: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 35)
Region
Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Share of Region’s
New Fuel Capacity
Share of Selected Fuel’s
Emerging Capacity
MRO
Wind
Natural Gas
Coal
Solar
Hydro
Wood
Biomass Solid
Biomass Gas
Landfill Gas
Total
12,826.00
3,325.52
375.00
361.75
67.37
40.00
30.00
2.70
1.60
17,029.94
75.3%
19.5%
2.2%
2.1%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
16.6%
4.4%
6.3%
0.8%
0.2%
3.3%
22.5%
4.2%
0.8%
NPCC
Natural Gas
Wind
Residual Fuel Oil
Hydro
Solar
Wood
Other
Landfill Gas
Waste
Biomass Gas
Total
6,338.85
5,011.77
632.40
416.86
384.52
97.90
4.80
4.80
3.20
1.00
12,896.10
49.2%
38.9%
4.9%
3.2%
3.0%
0.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
8.3%
6.5%
100.0%
1.0%
0.8%
8.1%
1.4%
2.4%
0.9%
1.6%
RFC
Natural Gas
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
Coal
Solar
Waste Heat
Waste
Blast Furnace Gas
Wood
Landfill Gas
Biomass Gas
Biomass Other
Biomass Solid
Distillate Fuel Oil
Other
Total
22,021.79
9,101.40
4,750.00
3,823.76
1,266.00
478.30
160.00
100.50
100.00
82.50
34.00
14.00
8.00
6.40
5.90
3.00
41,955.55
52.5%
21.7%
11.3%
9.1%
3.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
28.8%
11.8%
16.7%
9.6%
21.2%
1.0%
33.3%
28.5%
16.7%
6.8%
17.3%
21.9%
14.9%
4.8%
9.1%
0.9%
continued on next page
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
36
Proposed Plants and Plants Pending Application: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 36)
Region
SERC
SPP
WECC
Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Share of Region’s
New Fuel Capacity
Share of Selected Fuel’s
Emerging Capacity
Wind
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Solar
Blast Furnace Gas
Wood
Waste
Waste Heat
Biomass Solid
Distillate Fuel Oil
Biomass Other
Landfill Gas
Other
Biomass Gas
Total
8,870.35
7,154.20
5,065.00
4,666.03
4,358.06
500.00
467.00
210.40
65.00
61.43
46.05
45.60
12.10
8.80
3.12
31,533.14
28.1%
22.7%
16.1%
14.8%
13.8%
1.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
11.5%
9.4%
17.8%
11.7%
9.6%
83.3%
38.5%
59.7%
13.5%
46.0%
70.9%
85.1%
6.2%
2.6%
4.9%
Wind
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Hydro
Solar
Total
7,138.52
2,700.00
1,176.76
794.92
62.80
11,873.00
60.1%
22.7%
9.9%
6.7%
0.5%
9.3%
9.5%
1.5%
2.0%
0.1%
37,661.03
26,795.33
23,847.80
16,141.38
10,240.00
2,032.70
2,701.00
317.59
119.97
61.80
43.10
29.80
19.44
18.20
120,029.14
31.4%
22.3%
19.9%
13.4%
8.5%
1.7%
2.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
82.7%
67.3%
30.9%
21.1%
36.0%
90.6%
45.3%
93.8%
61.1%
5.1%
67.4%
22.3%
30.8%
5.2%
.
Solar
Hydro
Wind
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Geothermal
Coal
Other
Landfill Gas
Wood
Biomass Gas
Biomass Solid
Agricultural Byproduct
Waste
Total
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update
37