16 May 2016
RON exchange rates
4.60
Quite large current account deficit recorded
during Q1 2016
4.10
USD/RON (rhs)

EUR/RON
4.50
Current account deficit jumped in March and amounted to EUR
1.5bn during Q1 2016. This contrasts with a surplus of around
4.00
EUR 500mn recorded during Q1 2015. The very large current
4.40
account deficit recorded in March (around EUR 1.1bn) was mainly
3.90
the result of a large deficit in the primary income segment.
However, drivers will become known only today once the central
4.30
18-Apr
26-Apr
bank will release detailed statistics on balance of payments. On
3.80
13-May
5-May
the other hand, the enlargement of the foreign trade deficit
explains also the jump in the current account deficit in Q1 2016
Source: Daily NBR’s fixing as of 1.00 p.m
(local time)
from Q1 2015. Balance of foreign trade in goods and services
had a deficit of EUR 423mn in Q1 2016, while it had a surplus of
EUR 247mn during Q1 2015. Rapidly increasing domestic
RON yield curve
demand should be reflected in a visible increase of both foreign
4.0
trade deficit and current account deficit in 2016 from 2015.
3.0

2.0
Today, the Ministry of Finance plans to borrow today RON 300mn
in 1.2Y T-bonds. Today's public debt auction is likely to go well,
1.0
favored by the excess liquidity on the money market which should
have remained at a comfortable level.
0.0
6M
1Y
3Y
5Y
Curent
10Y
1 month ago
* yields to maturity (%, mid)
Source: Daily NBR’s fixing as of 12.00 a.m.
(local time)
Raiffeisen Bank Romania:
Daily rates
FX quotes
Interest rates for corporations
TDY / TDY
Bid
Exc ha nge house
Bid
Ask
EUR/RON
USD/RON
4.4350 4.5550
3.9050 4.0300
4.4200
3.9000
4.5600
4.0350
EUR/USD 1.1005 1.1665
EUR/GBP 0.7686 0.8098
GBP/RON
5.6250 5.7700
5.5900
5.8000
EUR/CHF
1.0812
CHF/RON
3.9630 4.1020
3.9600
4.1050
EUR/JPY
120.52 126.53
Bid
Ask
1.1494
Raiffeisen Bank’s FX quotes as of 9.00 a.m. (local time); FX quotes may change
during the working day due to the market movements. For foreign exchange
transactions, rates for amounts greater than EUR 20,000 or equivalent are
negotiable.
Treasury sales phone:
RO N
TDY / TDY c ross ra te s
Ask
US D
EUR
CHF G BP
O/N 0.020 0.016 0.000 0.000 0.004
1W
2W
3W
0.010 0.015 0.000 0.000 0.008
0.010 0.014 0.000 0.000 0.005
0.021 0.013 0.000 0.000 0.012
1M
3M
0.020 0.015 0.000 0.000 0.012
0.050 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.010
Effective today at 9.00 a.m. (local time)
Min. amount: 5,000 units in each currency
+40-21-306-1991
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1
Domestic financial markets
FX fixing for RON
Fixing
4.4974
3.9632
4.078
5.7113
3.6425
1.0202
1.4251
EUR
USD
CHF
GBP
JPY (100)
PLN
HUF (100)
Fixing for MM rates
1D (% )
0.04
0.59
RO BID
0.14
0.16
0.22
0.35
0.46
0.56
0.61
ON
1W
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
13:00 local time
RON money market rates
2.0%
RO BO R
0.45
0.49
0.60
0.76
1.03
1.13
1.18
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
11:00 local time
11-Mar-16
ROBOR 1M
Notes: NBR fixings as of 13 May 2016
Specific money market rules apply to establish the validity of ROBOR fixings
RON T-securities*
Bid
Ask
Te nor Y ie ld Y ie ld
6M
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
April: auctions for RON T-securities
0.58
0.75
1.92
2.75
3.66
0.32
0.50
1.70
2.53
3.45
Amount
0.0%
13-May-16
12-Apr-16
ROBOR 3M
ROBOR 6M
Dynamics of RON yields
Y ie ld
Da te
Te nor Ta rge t Ac tua l
5- May
1.0
1000
960
9- May
3.8
500
520
12- May
8.8
300
328
16- May
1.2
300
19- May
6.6
300
23- May
4.8
400
26- May
2.9 3300
500
1808
Avg
0.70
2.26
3.58
5.0
Ma x
0.74
2.28
3.60
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
20-Nov-15
18-Feb-16
6M
1Y
5Y
10Y
*NBR's fixing as of 13 May 2016 (12.00 local time)
0.0
13-May-16
3Y
Eurobonds issued by Romania (in EUR)
Ma turity
IS IN
XS0371163600
XS0852474336
XS0972758741
XS1060842975
XS1129788524
XS1312891549
Da te
Jun 2018
Nov 2019
Sep 2020
Apr 2024
Oct 2024
Oct 2025
XS1313004928
Oct 2035
Y e a rs Cupon
2.1
6.50
3.5
4.88
4.3
4.63
7.9
3.63
8.5
2.88
9.5
2.75
19.5
3.88
Mid
yie ld
0.14
0.39
0.72
2.12
2.22
2.39
Mid
pric e
113.25
115.47
116.64
110.90
105.00
103.00
3.57
104.25
Foreign market rates
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.4%
20-Nov-15
Date as of 13 May 2016 17:24 (local time)
Source: Bloomberg
16-Feb-16
-0.6%
12-May-16
Euribor 1M
Euribor 6M
Libor Usd 1M
Libor Usd 6M
International financial market
FX ma rke t ra te s*
1D (%)
EUR/USD
1.1312
- 0.40
O/N
- 0.342
0.38500
GBP/USD
1.4363
- 0.42
1W
- 0.363
0.40490
USD/CHF
0.9763
0.42
1M
- 0.349
0.43445
USD/JPY
108.70
0.06
3M
- 0.258
0.62610
6M
- 0.144
0.90665
9M
- 0.079
n.a
12M
- 0.012
1.22690
Date as of 16 May 2016 08:33 (local time)
Euribor Libor US D
Foreign exchange rates
1.18
125
1.14
120
1.10
115
1.06
110
Libor Usd fixing on 12 May 2016
Euribor fixing on 12 May 2016
IRS 2Y
- 0.16
0.88
EUR IRS rates on 12 May 2016 , 16.00
USD IRS rates on 12 May 2016 , 16.00
IRS 5Y
IRS 10Y
0.01
0.56
1.20
1.62
1.02
24-Nov-15
22-Feb-16
105
16-May-16
USD/JPY (rhs.)
EUR/USD
Note: Specific money market rules apply to establish the validity of LIBOR
USD and EURIBOR fixings
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream
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2
Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE): daily trading summary
Issue r
Close
1D (% )
FP
SIF1
SIF2
SIF3
SIF4
SIF5
FONDUL PROPRIETATEA
SIF BANAT CRISANA
SIF MOLDOVA
SIF TRANSILVANIA
SIF MUNTENIA
SIF OLTENIA
0.72
1.41
0.67
0.24
0.54
1.40
- 0.1
0.0
- 0.2
- 1.7
0.0
- 0.1
TLV
BRD
BANCA TRANSILVANIA
BRD - GSG
2.76
9.81
0.9
0.3
BVB
TEL
EL
SNP
SNN
SNG
TGN
Issue r
Close
BURSA DE VALORI BUC.
TRANSELECTRICA
ELECTRICA
OMV PETROM
NUCLEARELECTRICA
ROMGAZ
TRANSGAZ
25.00
29.20
12.10
0.23
4.98
22.95
271.00
BS E turnove r (EUR mn)
1D (% )
1.2
- 0.5
0.3
0.2
3.1
- 0.9
0.0
8.43
Date as of 13 May 2016 19:00 (local time)
Main BSE indexes
Inde x
BET
BET- TR
BET Plus
BET- FI
V a lue
6462.97
7387.74
958.14
1D
0.2
0.2
0.2
1M
- 4.0
- 3.7
- 4.0
3M
5.3
5.7
5.0
6M
- 11.3
- 11.0
- 10.8
1Y
- 14.0
- 10.0
- 13.3
Y TD
- 7.7
- 7.4
- 7.4
7500
32000
7000
30000
25569.12
- 0.3
- 8.3
- 4.3
- 17.1
- 18.2
- 15.5
6500
28000
5002.80
7389.26
936.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
- 4.6
- 4.2
- 4.6
4.7
5.1
4.3
- 12.0
- 11.7
- 11.5
- 14.9
- 10.9
- 14.2
- 7.2
- 6.8
- 6.8
6000
26000
12327.59
- 0.3
- 8.8
- 4.9
- 17.8
- 19.0
- 15.0
BET EUR
BET- TR EUR
BET Plus EUR
BET- FI EUR
5500
26-Feb-16
Note: All changes are in %
5-Apr-16
BET
24000
13-May-16
BET-FI (RHS)
Date as of 13 May 2016 19:00 (local time)
Mutual Funds managed by Raiffeisen Asset Management
P e rforma nc e (% )
Y e a r on ye a r Y e a r to da te
(yoy)
(ytd)
Inc e ption
month
Asse ts unde r
ma na ge me nt
(RO N mn)*
Ne t Asse t V a lue
pe r unit (NAV )
Raiffeisen Benefit
Jun 2006
72.29
147.5503
- 5.6
- 3.4
Raiffeisen Romania Actiuni
Aug 2007
16.51
38.6578
- 10.9
- 10.5
Raiffeisen Confort
Sep 2007
326.75
160.9169
- 0.7
- 0.9
Raiffeisen RonPlus
Sep 2008
2,687.09
176.7616
2.9
1.0
Raiffeisen RonFlexi
Jun 2011
747.22
125.0817
2.3
0.8
Raiffeisen EuroPlus (in EUR)
Oct 2009
479.06
127.4677
1.6
0.7
Raiffeisen DolarPlus (in USD)
Oct 2010
104.51
1195.2354
2.2
1.1
Raiffeisen Confort Euro (in EUR)
Oct 2013
53.55
28.2012
- 3.3
- 0.4
* EUR mn for Raiffeisen EuroPlus and Confort Euro, and USD mn for Raiffeisen DolarPlus
NAV as of: 11 May 2016
For further details please visit www.raiffeisenfonduri.ro
46
166
44
161
42
156
40
151
38
11-Nov 12-Jan 14-Mar 11-May
146
11-Nov 12-Jan 14-Mar 11-May
178
127
175
125
172
123
169
NAV Romania Actiuni
NAV Benefit
NAV Confort
11Nov
121
1411Mar
May
Raiffeisen RON Plus (rhs.)
12-Jan
Raiffeisen RON Flexi
129
1220
127
1200
125
1180
123
1160
121
11Nov
12-Jan
14Mar
1140
11May
Raiffeisen Dolar Plus (rhs.)
Raiffeisen Euro Plus
Page
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3
Research team for macroeconomics and financial markets
Ionut Dumitru – Chief Economist,
Nicolae Covrig – Financial Analyst,
Silvia Maria Rosca –- Financial Analyst,
+40 - 730 - 222 - 953
+40 - 799 - 718 - 476
+40 - 799 - 718 - 083
Disclaimer Financial Analysis - Raiffeisen BANK Romania
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premises in Sky Tower building located at 246 C Calea Floreasca, 1st district, Bucharest, postal code 014476, registered at Trade
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under no. RB-PJR-40-009/1999, in its capacity as an Intermediary, registered with the Romanian Financial Supervisory Authority under
no. PJR01INCR/400009 (abbreviated as “RBRO”)
Supervisory authority: The National Bank of Romania (NBR) and the Financial Supervisory Authority (FSA)
This document is for information purposes, is delivered without any charge, and may not be reproduced or distributed to other persons.
This document is governed by Romanian legislation in force and constitutes neither a solicitation of an offer nor a prospectus in the sense
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This document does not constitute a personal recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments, or consultancy in the sense of the
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This analysis is fundamentally based on generally available information and not on confidential information which the party preparing the
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Unless otherwise expressly stated in this publication, RBRO deems all of the information to be reliable, but does not make any assurances
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Past performance is no guarantee for the future performance of the financial instruments. No assurance can be given regarding the
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projections are not met. Nor RBRO, nor any of its directors, officers or employees are responsible for any loss or damage that may result
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Any transaction with financial instruments involves risks among which are included but not limited to: the fluctuation of the prices in the
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Please be informed that it is possible that the Bank, its affiliates or its employees may hold on their own account products / financial
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