More Likely, Less Likely Objective Determine whether events are more likely or less likely. Lesson Planning NCTM Standards Data Analysis and Probability Discuss events related to students’ experiences as likely or unlikely. Use the vocabulary cards to play your favorite classroom games: Charades, Twenty Questions, and so on. To win points, children supply terms or definitions. more likely less likely Essential Question How can you tell if an event is more likely or less likely? About the Math • Have children brainstorm everyday events that are more likely or less likely to occur. For example, it is more likely that they will play outside on a sunny day than a rainy day. • Explain to children that two events that have the same chance of occurring are equally likely to occur. Neither event is more likely or less likely to happen. Daily Routine 9.4 Problem of the Day Emma packs a picnic basket with 4 red apples and 1 green apple. Is she more likely or less likely to pull a red apple from the basket than a green apple? more likely For a complete solution, see the back of the TE. Calendar Activity • Spiral Review Guide children to see that there are more 2-digit than 1-digit 6 7 numbers in this month’s calendar. 13 14 20 21 Ask, If I close my eyes and 27 28 point to a date, am I more likely or less likely to point to a 1-digit number than a 2-digit number? September Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 1 8 15 22 29 2 9 16 23 30 3 10 17 24 4 11 18 25 5 12 19 26 Materials For the teacher and each group bowl, large red, blue, green, and yellow bear counters 10–15 minutes Engage and Explore Ask, Is it likely or unlikely to snow on a summer day? Discuss the terms likely and unlikely and other terms children may use, such as always, maybe, sometimes, never, and certain. Show children a bowl with 1 green and 5 red bear counters. Ask, Am I more or less likely to pull a red bear than a green bear? Explain that an event that is more likely to occur will probably happen more often than an event that is less likely. Have children take turns placing various numbers of bears of two colors in a bowl and deciding which colors they are more likely and less likely to pull. Explain •Describe a situation where you are less likely to pull a yellow bear than a blue bear. if there are fewer yellow than blue bears •When are you most likely to pull a red bear from a bowl of bears? when there are more red bears Elaborate and Evaluate Place 2 green and 7 yellow bears in a bowl. Have children tell if each is more or less likely to be pulled. 1. green bear less likely 2.yellow bear more likely 195A Chapter 9 Common CommonTG MXENL09ATE12_U3C09L4NT_195A-195B2 2 8/9/07 6:32:04 PM Differentiated Instruction Learn Math Vocabulary Check Prior Knowledge: Check to see if children understand more likely and less likely. Tell children that likely means something that can be expected to happen. Have children raise a hand if the statement is true: 10–15 minutes Name ELL Math Language Lesson 9.4 9.4 1. More likely means that something has a better chance of happening than it has if it is less likely. Learn Math Language: Likely 2.A jar has 100 green beads and 1 white bead. Sue is less likely to pull a white bead than a green one. Is it likely to pull a If an event is likely, it means it may happen. from the bag? 1. likely. It is not likely. Comprehension: Events can be likely or unlikely. If they are likely, they can be compared to each other to determine which event has more chances of happening. Josh has 7 containers of clay. Mason has 9 containers of clay. Does Josh have more or less clay than Mason? less Who is less likely to run out of clay first? Mason, he has more clay than Josh. Sam has 3 jars of paint. Ben has 1 jar of paint. Does Sam have more or less paint than Ben? more Who is more likely to run out of paint first? Ben, he has less 2. likely. It is not likely. 3. likely. It is not likely. paint than Sam. 4. For Beginning, Intermediate, and Advanced activities, see the ELL Kit. likely. It is not likely. LS57 Math Language © Harcourt ¥ Grade 1 Objective Sort by color and identify more and less likely. Materials For partners red and blue connecting cubes, bag, index cards labeled “more likely” and “less likely” 10–15 minutes Kinesthetic Some children may mix up more likely and less likely. •Remind children that when there is more of an object, that object is more likely to be chosen. When there is less of an object, it is less likely to be chosen. •Have one partner choose different numbers of red and blue cubes and place them randomly in a bag. •The other partner takes the cubes out of the bag and sorts them into two groups: red and blue. Partners place the cards “more likely” and “less likely” next to each color group. Partners switch roles and repeat. Objective Predict more and less likely events on spinners and use a tally chart to record spins and check predictions. 10–15 minutes Visual, Kinesthetic Materials For partners 8–Section Spinners and Tally Chart (see Teaching Resource Book) •Have partners label 5 sections of an 8–section spinner with the number “1” and 3 sections with “2.” Have them predict which number they are more likely and less likely to land on, then spin the spinner 10 times and record the results in a tally chart to check their predictions. •If time allows, have pairs label another spinner with 2 different numbers and repeat the activity. Explain to children that just because they are more likely to spin a number does not mean it will happen. Intervention, Strategic Skills For more help, use S15, S16. For practice, return to page 196. Lesson 9.4 195B MXENL09ATE12_U3C09L4NT_195A-195B3 3 Common CommonTG 8/9/07 6:33:21 PM Lesson 9.4 Name More Likely, Less Likely Vocabulary more likely less likely OBJECTIVE • Determine whether events are more likely or less likely. Lesson Organizer Pulling yellow is less likely than pulling red. Pulling red is more likely than pulling yellow. Vocabulary Power, p. 195A more likely, less likely Lesson Resources ELL Kit Teacher Guide See Investigate the Lesson Concept, p. 195A. See ELL Language Support, p. 195B. Mark an X to tell if pulling the bear from the bowl is more likely or less likely. Quick Review Circle possible or impossible. Pull 1. pull a green bear possible From More Likely Less Likely X 1. impossible 2. X 3. X Explore Use these questions to build understanding. 4. Math Conversation Reasoning X • How is less likely different than impossible? There are more green bears than blue bears. • Describe a time when you are equally likely to pull a red or a yellow bear from a bowl. when Chapter 9 • Lesson 4 one hundred ninety-five there are the same number of red and yellow bears MXENL09ASE1X_U3C09L04.indd Connect Discuss Exercises 1–2. Check for Understanding • Use Exercises 3 and 4 as every-child response. Name a child misses 3 and 0DF 195 Reteach 9.4 6/22/07 11:56:45 AM Practice/homework 9.4 Lesson 9.4 More Likely, Less Likely There are more black bears. So pulling a black bear is more likely. 4 195 Name More Likely, Less Likely Intervention CommonTGA NL Common NLTGA Why is pulling a more likely than pulling a in Exercise 4? Explain. © Harcourt Impossible cannot happen. Less likely won’t happen often. Mark an X to tell if pulling the from the is more likely or less likely. There are fewer gray bears. So pulling a gray bear is less likely. Pull From More Likely Less Likely 1. …Intervene with • Reteach Activity, TE p. 195B • Reteach 9.4 Intervention, On-Level Skill L41 • 2. 3. Circle the color 1. you are more likely to pull. 4. 2. 5. Summarize Use Talk Math to focus on children’s understanding of the Essential Question. Problem Solving 6. Circle the bear that is most likely to be pulled. Cross out the bear that is least likely to be pulled. Circle the color 3. you are less likely to pull. 4. 195 Chapter 9 RW57 MXENL08AWK1X_RT_CH09_L4.indd 1 Common CommonTG MXENL09ATE12_U3C09L4W_195-196.in2 2 Reteach PW57 Practice © Harcourt • Grade 3 © Harcourt • Grade 1 6/8/07 3:51:07 PM 8/9/07 6:38:14 PM Practice Have children model each exercise with bear counters and a bowl, if necessary. Mark an X to tell if pulling the bear from the bowl is more likely or less likely. Pull From More Likely Problem Solving Reasoning Less Likely Explain that the color that is most likely to be pulled is the color of the greatest number of bears and that the color that is least likely to be pulled is the color of the fewest number of bears. X 1. X 2. For the advanced learner, see Advanced Learners activity, p. 195B. X 3. X 4. Closure Today we learned whether events are more likely or less likely to happen. X 5. Assess Show a bowl with 5 blue circles and 2 yellow circles. Are you more likely to pull a blue circle or a yellow circle? blue circle 6. Circle the bear that is most likely Mixed Review and Test Prep to be pulled. Mark an X on the bear that is least likely to be pulled. Add. Common CommonTGA NL NLTGA one hundred ninety-six 0DF 196 MXENL08AWK1X_EN_C09_L04.indd Page 57 5/6/07 7:12:40 PM anil /Volumes/ju107/HCSC026/Enrich_G1_indd%0/Book_pages/Workbook_pages/National/MX... MXENL08AWK1X_PS_C09_L4.indd Page 57 5/21/07 9:50:30 AM naren Enrich 9.4 Name Lesson 9.4 Look at the objects in the bowl. Write more or less. is less likely than 2. more likely than is — 3. less likely than is — 2 likely to be spun? — 1 3 5. Which number is least 2 2 1 4 likely to be spun? — 3 Draw to solve. 6. Draw to Stretch Your Thinking Draw that Check children’s drawings. Children must draw at least one ball but fewer than 5 balls. so that is less likely than be pulled. and 3 A 1 child C 6 children B 5 children D 7 children 11:57:05 AM Problem Solving 9.4 Lesson 9.4 4 marbles should be red and 6 should be blue. 1. Color the marbles to show the problem. so 3. Which color is Jana more likely to pull? blue blue Color to show the problem. 7 blocks should be orange Tell which is less likely. and 2 should be green. 4. Sam puts 9 blocks in a box. 2 are green and 7 are orange. Which color is he less likely to pull? REMEMBER! 9.4 green 5. Challenge There are blue and green presents on the table. Color the presents so that it is more likely to choose a green present. Check that children color more presents green than worksheet on page 195B Practice Workbook p. SR14 blue. Check children’s drawings. Children must draw equal numbers of each object. MXENL09ATE12_U3C09L4W_195-196.in3 /Volumes/ju101/HCSC004/HCSC_indd%0/Anc_G1_NL_Chap /Chap_G1_09 are equally likely. EW57 6/22/07 2. Are there more red or blue marbles? 4. Which number is most 2 4. 7 + 3 = 10 Jana puts 10 marbles in a box. 4 marbles are red and 6 are blue. Is she more likely to pull a red marble or a blue marble? Look at the numbers on the spinner to solve. 4 3. 6 + 5 = 11 More Likely, Less Likely More or Less, Most and Least 1. Name 2. 5 + 4 = 9 © Harcourt TAKE HOME ACTIVITY • Put 5 pennies and 3 nickels in a bowl. Ask your child if pulling a penny is more likely or less likely than pulling a nickel. Have your child explain the answer. MXENL09ASE1X_U3C09L04.indd 1. 4 + 4 = 8 5.Jake is standing sixth in line for lunch. How many children are in front of him in the line? Explain why yellow is more likely to be pulled answer: there are 5 yellow bears. than green and red together. Possible There are three green and red bears. 196 9.4 Lesson 9.4 196 Enrich © Harcourt • Grade 1 PS57 Problem Solving © Harcourt • Grade 1 Common CommonTG 8/9/07 6:38:41 PM