More Likely, Less Likely
Objective Determine whether events are more likely or less likely.
Lesson Planning
NCTM Standards Data Analysis and Probability Discuss events related to students’ experiences as likely or unlikely.
Use the vocabulary cards to play your favorite classroom games: Charades, Twenty
Questions, and so on. To win points, children
supply terms or definitions.
more likely
less likely
Essential Question How can you tell if an event is
more likely or less likely?
About the Math • Have children brainstorm everyday events that are more likely or less likely to occur. For example, it is more likely that they will play outside on a sunny day
than a rainy day.
• Explain to children that two events that have the same
chance of occurring are equally likely to occur. Neither
event is more likely or less likely to happen.
Daily Routine
9.4
Problem of the Day
Emma packs a picnic basket with 4 red apples and
1 green apple. Is she more likely or less likely to pull a
red apple from the basket than a green apple? more
likely
For a complete solution, see the back of the TE.
Calendar Activity • Spiral Review
Guide children to see that there
are more 2-digit than 1-digit
6
7
numbers in this month’s calendar.
13 14
20 21
Ask, If I close my eyes and
27 28
point to a date, am I more
likely or less likely to point to a 1-digit number than
a 2-digit number?
September
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
1
8
15
22
29
2
9
16
23
30
3
10
17
24
4
11
18
25
5
12
19
26
Materials For the teacher and each group bowl, large red, blue, green, and yellow bear counters
10–15 minutes
Engage and Explore
Ask, Is it likely or unlikely to snow on a summer day? Discuss
the terms likely and unlikely and other terms children may
use, such as always, maybe, sometimes, never, and certain.
Show children a bowl with 1 green and 5 red bear counters.
Ask, Am I more or less likely to pull a red bear than a green
bear? Explain that an event that is more likely to occur will
probably happen more often than an event that is less likely.
Have children take turns placing various numbers of bears of
two colors in a bowl and deciding which colors they are more
likely and less likely to pull.
Explain
•Describe a situation where you are less likely to pull a
yellow bear than a blue bear. if there are fewer yellow than
blue bears
•When are you most likely to pull a red bear from a bowl of
bears? when there are more red bears
Elaborate and Evaluate
Place 2 green and 7 yellow bears in a bowl. Have children tell
if each is more or less likely to be pulled.
1. green bear less likely
2.yellow bear more likely
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Differentiated Instruction
Learn Math Vocabulary
Check Prior Knowledge: Check to see if children understand more
likely and less likely. Tell children that likely means something that can be
expected to happen. Have children raise a hand if the statement is true:
10–15 minutes
Name
ELL Math Language Lesson
9.4 9.4
1. More likely means that something has a better chance of happening than it has if it is less likely.
Learn Math Language: Likely
2.A jar has 100 green beads and 1 white bead. Sue is less likely to pull a white bead than
a green one.
Is it likely to pull a
If an event is likely, it means it may happen.
from the bag?
1.
likely.
It is
not likely.
Comprehension: Events can be likely or unlikely. If they are likely, they can be
compared to each other to determine which event has more chances of happening.
Josh has 7 containers of clay. Mason has 9 containers of clay. Does Josh have more
or less clay than Mason? less Who is less likely to run
out of clay first? Mason, he has more clay than Josh.
Sam has 3 jars of paint. Ben has 1 jar of paint. Does
Sam have more or less paint than Ben? more Who is
more likely to run out of paint first? Ben, he has less
2.
likely.
It is
not likely.
3.
likely.
It is
not likely.
paint than Sam.
4.
For Beginning, Intermediate, and Advanced activities, see the ELL Kit.
likely.
It is
not likely.
LS57
Math Language
© Harcourt ¥ Grade 1
Objective Sort by color and identify more and less likely.
Materials For partners red and blue connecting cubes, bag, index cards labeled “more likely” and “less likely”
10–15 minutes
Kinesthetic
Some children may mix up more likely and less likely.
•Remind children that when there is more of an
object, that object is more likely to be chosen.
When there is less of an object, it is less likely to
be chosen.
•Have one partner choose different numbers of red
and blue cubes and place them randomly in a bag.
•The other partner takes the cubes out of the bag
and sorts them into two groups: red and blue.
Partners place the cards “more likely” and “less
likely” next to each color group. Partners switch
roles and repeat.
Objective Predict more and less likely events on spinners and use a tally chart to record spins and check predictions.
10–15 minutes
Visual, Kinesthetic
Materials For partners 8–Section Spinners and Tally Chart (see Teaching Resource Book)
•Have partners label 5 sections of an 8–section
spinner with the number “1” and 3 sections with
“2.” Have them predict which number they are
more likely and less likely to land on, then spin the
spinner 10 times and record the results in a tally
chart to check their predictions.
•If time allows, have pairs label another spinner
with 2 different numbers and repeat the activity.
Explain to children that just because they are
more likely to spin a number does not mean it will
happen.
Intervention, Strategic Skills
For more help, use
S15, S16. For practice, return to page 196.
Lesson 9.4 195B
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Lesson 9.4
Name
More Likely, Less Likely
Vocabulary
more likely
less likely
OBJECTIVE • Determine whether events are more likely or less likely.
Lesson Organizer
Pulling yellow
is less likely than
pulling red.
Pulling red is
more likely than
pulling yellow.
Vocabulary Power, p. 195A more likely, less likely
Lesson Resources ELL Kit Teacher Guide
See Investigate the Lesson Concept, p. 195A. See ELL Language Support, p. 195B.
Mark an X to tell if pulling the bear from
the bowl is more likely or less likely.
Quick Review Circle possible or impossible.
Pull
1. pull a green bear
possible
From
More Likely
Less Likely
X
1.
impossible
2.
X
3.
X
Explore Use these questions to build understanding.
4.
Math Conversation Reasoning
X
• How is less likely different than impossible?
There are more green bears than blue bears.
• Describe
a time when you are equally likely to
pull a red or a yellow bear from a bowl. when
Chapter 9 • Lesson 4
one hundred ninety-five
there are the same number of red and yellow bears
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Connect Discuss Exercises 1–2.
Check for Understanding • Use Exercises 3 and 4 as
every-child response.
Name
a child misses
3 and
0DF
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Practice/homework
9.4
Lesson 9.4
More Likely, Less Likely
There are more black
bears. So pulling a black
bear is more likely.
4
195
Name
More Likely, Less Likely
Intervention
CommonTGA NL
Common
NLTGA
Why is pulling a
more likely than pulling a
in Exercise 4? Explain.
© Harcourt
Impossible cannot happen. Less likely won’t happen
often.
Mark an X to tell if pulling the
from the
is more likely or less likely.
There are fewer gray
bears. So pulling a gray
bear is less likely.
Pull
From
More Likely Less Likely
1.
…Intervene with
• Reteach Activity, TE p. 195B
• Reteach 9.4
Intervention, On-Level Skill L41
•
2.
3.
Circle the color
1.
you are more likely to pull.
4.
2.
5.
Summarize Use Talk Math to focus on children’s
understanding of the Essential Question.
Problem Solving
6. Circle the bear that is most likely to be pulled. Cross out
the bear that is least likely to be pulled.
Circle the color
3.
you are less likely to pull.
4.
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Practice
© Harcourt • Grade 3
© Harcourt • Grade 1
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Practice Have children model each exercise with
bear counters and a bowl, if necessary.
Mark an X to tell if pulling the bear from
the bowl is more likely or less likely.
Pull
From
More Likely
Problem Solving Reasoning
Less Likely
Explain that the color that is most likely to be
pulled is the color of the greatest number of bears
and that the color that is least likely to be pulled is
the color of the fewest number of bears.
X
1.
X
2.
For the advanced learner, see Advanced Learners
activity, p. 195B.
X
3.
X
4.
Closure Today we learned whether events are
more likely or less likely to happen.
X
5.
Assess Show a bowl with 5 blue circles and 2
yellow circles. Are you more likely to pull a blue
circle or a yellow circle? blue circle
6. Circle the bear that is most likely
Mixed Review and Test Prep
to be pulled. Mark an X on the bear
that is least likely to be pulled.
Add.
Common
CommonTGA NL
NLTGA
one hundred ninety-six
0DF
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Enrich 9.4
Name
Lesson 9.4
Look at the objects in the bowl.
Write more or less.
is
less likely than
2.
more likely than
is —
3.
less likely than
is —
2
likely to be spun? —
1
3
5. Which number is least
2
2
1
4
likely to be spun? —
3
Draw to solve.
6. Draw
to
Stretch Your Thinking Draw
that
Check children’s
drawings.
Children must
draw at least one
ball but fewer
than 5 balls.
so that
is less likely than
be pulled.
and
3
A 1 child
C 6 children
B 5 children
D 7 children
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Problem Solving 9.4
Lesson 9.4
4 marbles should be red and 6
should be blue.
1. Color the marbles to show the problem.
so
3. Which color is Jana more likely to pull?
blue
blue
Color to show the problem. 7 blocks should be orange
Tell which is less likely.
and 2 should be green.
4. Sam puts 9 blocks in a box.
2 are green and 7 are orange.
Which color is he less likely to pull?
REMEMBER!
9.4
green
5. Challenge There are blue and green presents
on the table. Color the presents so that it is
more likely to choose a green present.
Check that
children color
more presents
green than
worksheet
on page 195B
Practice Workbook
p. SR14
blue.
Check children’s drawings. Children must draw
equal numbers of each object.
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2. Are there more red or blue marbles?
4. Which number is most
2
4. 7 + 3 = 10 Jana puts 10 marbles in a box.
4 marbles are red and 6 are blue.
Is she more likely to pull a red
marble or a blue marble?
Look at the numbers on the spinner to solve.
4
3. 6 + 5 = 11 More Likely, Less Likely
More or Less, Most and Least
1.
Name
2. 5 + 4 = 9 © Harcourt
TAKE HOME ACTIVITY • Put 5 pennies and 3 nickels in a bowl. Ask your
child if pulling a penny is more likely or less likely than pulling a nickel.
Have your child explain the answer.
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1. 4 + 4 = 8 5.Jake is standing sixth in line for lunch. How
many children are in front of him in the line?
Explain why yellow is more likely to be pulled
answer: there are 5 yellow bears.
than green and red together. Possible
There are three green and red bears.
196
9.4
Lesson 9.4 196
Enrich
© Harcourt • Grade 1
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Problem Solving
© Harcourt • Grade 1
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