The Breeding Bird Survey 2015
The population trends of the UK’s breeding birds
The 2015 BBS Report
2
THE 2015 BBS REPORT
This is the twenty-first annual report of the
BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey (BBS),
containing the population trends of widespread UK
bird species during the period 1994–2015.
The BBS is the main scheme for monitoring
the population changes of the UK’s common
breeding birds, providing an important indicator
of the health of the countryside. BBS trends are
produced each year for over 100 species, and the
results are used widely to set priorities and inform
conservation action.
British Trust for Ornithology
The Nunnery
Thetford
Norfolk
IP24 2PU
www.bto.org
Joint Nature Conservation Committee
Monkstone House
City Road
Peterborough
PE1 1JY
www.jncc.defra.gov.uk
Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
The Lodge
Sandy
Bedfordshire
SG19 2DL
THE BBS PARTNERSHIP
The Breeding Bird Survey is run by the British Trust for Ornithology
(BTO) and is funded jointly by the BTO, the Joint Nature Conservation
Committee (JNCC) (on behalf of the statutory nature conservation
bodies: Council for Nature Conservation and the Countryside, Natural
England, Natural Resources Wales and Scottish Natural Heritage), and
the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB).
The members of the BBS Steering Committee in 2015 were James
Pearce-Higgins (Chair, BTO), Deborah Procter (JNCC), Mark
Eaton (RSPB), David Noble (BTO), Simon Gillings (BTO) and
Dawn Balmer (BTO).
THE BBS TEAM AT THE BTO
Sarah Harris is the BBS National Organiser, responsible for the dayto-day running of the BBS, liaising with BTO Regional Organisers
and volunteers, maintaining the database, promoting the scheme,
and producing the annual report.
Dario Massimino, Research Ecologist in the Population Ecology and
Modelling Team, worked on the bird population trends for 2015 and
Stuart Newson assisted in the production and development of the
mammal population trends. Justin Walker is the Database Developer,
responsible for the BBS database, David Noble is the Principal
Ecologist for Monitoring, responsible for strategic developments in
biodiversity monitoring. Dawn Balmer is Head of Surveys, which
includes the BBS and other surveys, Simon Gillings oversees the BBS
research programme and James Pearce-Higgins is the Director of
Science at the BTO.
Contact the BBS National Organiser:
Sarah Harris, British Trust for Ornithology
Email: bbs@bto.org, Tel: 01842 750050
www.rspb.org.uk
BBS website: www.bto.org/bbs
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We are grateful to the following people for their
help in 2015: Stephen Baillie, Rob Bonner,
Neil Calbrade, Ben Darvill, Mark Hammond,
Kelvin Jones, Andrew Joys, Maria Knight, Andy
Musgrove, Kate Risely, Anna Robinson, William
Skellorn, Dave Turvey, Justin Walker, Shane
Wolsey and Karen Wright.
Many people have contributed to the scheme’s
development and organisation, including
Nicholas Aebischer, Mandy Andrews, Mark Avery,
Ian Bainbridge, Helen Baker, Richard Bashford,
Jessa Battersby, George Boobyer, Andy Brown,
Steve Buckland, Nick Carter, Steve Carter, Dan
Chamberlain, Rachel Coombes, Humphrey Crick,
Sarah Davis, Iain Downie, Sarah Eglington, Steve
Freeman, Colin Galbraith, David Gibbons, John
Goss-Custard, Rhys Green, Jeremy Greenwood,
Richard Gregory, Rob Keen, Ian McLean, Mike
Meharg, Richard Minter, Ian Mitchell, David Morris,
Dorian Moss, Nancy Ockendon, Will Peach, Ken
Perry, Mike Raven, Brenda Read, Warren Read,
Angela Rickard, Sandra Sparkes, Ken Smith,
David Stroud, Pierre Tellier, Chris Thaxter, Richard
Thewlis, Derek Thomas, Mike Toms, Lawrence
Way, Richard Weyl and Lucy Wright.
We acknowledge the support of the Northern
Ireland Environment Agency who funded
professional fieldworkers to cover 52 squares in
Northern Ireland until 2015 – something we
hope to continue again in the future (see page
11). Natural England, Scottish Natural Heritage and
Forestry Commission Scotland have contributed
to additional surveys on Upland BBS and Scottish
Woodland BBS squares in previous years. We are
very grateful to the RSPB for funding the initial
development of BBS-Online, and to the BTO
Information Systems Team who have continued to
develop the system and provide technical support.
The cover photo of a
Grey Wagtail is by Neil
Calbrade and the BBS
logo is by Andy Wilson.
Report production was by Sarah
Harris. We are very grateful to
John Marchant for proofreading
the report. The report was
printed by Reflex, Thetford, using
paper from responsible sources.
The 2015 BBS Report
3
INSIDE...
pg10
pg12
pg4
pg22
4
BBS news and methods
.................................................
BBS Online, developing mammal trends,
WCBS update, latest research papers, BBS
methods and background.
6
BBS research and outputs
......................................
Birds of Conservation Concern 4: Red,
Amber and Green lists for birds.
8
Introducing the WBBS
.................................................
Recording in a linear habitat: a look at
the Waterways Breeding Bird Survey.
.........
How BBS coverage is faring and which
species were recorded in 2015.
12
...........................................................................................................
The latest UK population trends for 111
common and widespread birds.
SiLVEr-WASHEDfriTiLLAry:JOHNfLOWErDAy,BEE-EATEr&rEDDEEr:NEiLCALBrADE,rEDKiTE:JiLLPAKENHAM
...................................................................................
English trends for 105 species, this
year with the addition of Peregrine and
Mandarin Duck.
Scotland trends
16
.................................................................................
Scottish trends for 62 species, illustrating
the increase in Chiffchaff, Blackcap and
Whitethroat in the country.
18
Wales trends
..............................................................................................
Coverage and species recorded 10
UK trends
14
England trends
The Welsh trends monitoring the
population changes for 54 species across
the country. Yellowhammer continue to
decline in Wales.
Northern Ireland trends
19
.......................................
Trends for Northern Ireland reveal
population changes for 35 species,
Willow Warbler bucking the UK trend.
BBS on the Channel Islands
and Isle of Man
19
Trends in English regions
20
Mammal monitoring
22
................................................................................
A look at submissions from the Channel
Islands and the Isle of Man.
................................
Population trends for 79 species for
nine English regions, showing regional
variations between trends.
......................................................
Mammal reporting just got bigger!
Population trends are calculated for the
UK as standard but now we present
country and English region trends too.
Special thanks
back cover
.......................................
CiTATiON
ONLiNErESOurCES
Harris, S.J., Massimino, D., Newson, S.E., Eaton,
M.A., Marchant, J.H., Balmer, D.E., Noble, D.G.,
Gillings, S., Procter, D. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W. 2016.
The Breeding Bird Survey 2015. BTO Research Report
687. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford.
Further information, including population trend graphs,
can be found at www.bto.org/bbs, and a full speciesby-species discussion of these results, and those from
other surveys, can be found on the BirdTrends website
at www.bto.org/birdtrends.
Published by the British Trust for Ornithology, the Joint Nature
Conservation Committee and the Royal Society for the
Protection of Birds, July 2016.
This report can be downloaded
from www.bto.org/bbs/results/
bbsreport.htm.
© British Trust for Ornithology, Joint Nature Conservation
Committee and Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, 2016.
BTO Research Report 687
ISSN 1368-9932
ISBN 978-1-908581-69-3
BBS News and Methods
What’s happening in the
world of the BBS?
BBS Online videos, news from the Wider Countryside Butterfly Survey,
developments in the outputs from mammal recording, the latest published
papers using BBS data, and the BBS background and methods
By Sarah Harris, BBS National Organiser, BTO
BBS IN 2015
2,784 volunteers took part in the BBS in 2015, recording
215 species on 3,731 randomly allocated 1-km squares.
Thank you to all those involved.
BBS ONLINE – VIDEO TUTORIALS
We now have three BBS Online video tutorials on
the BBS website (www.bto.org/bbs-online). These are
designed to assist with data entry, editing data and
mapping a BBS route online. To reduce paper use, we
encourage BBS volunteers to let us know if they prefer
forms or reports electronically, rather than hard copies.
Contact: bbs@bto.org
WIDER COUNTRYSIDE BUTTERFLY SURVEY
The 2015 WCBS newsletter is available at www.bto.org/
bbs-other-reports. Targeted habitat management at a
landscape scale has been shown to improve the fortunes
of species such as the Duke of Burgundy. There was a
drop in contributions from BBS squares in 2015 with
304 squares surveyed for the WCBS. A new WCBS
online data entry system is due to be launched in 2016.
COUNTING COLONIES
Recording of colonies on BBS squares is encouraged. All
species seen during BBS surveys should be recorded in
the core counts, but colony data should also be collected.
MAMMAL TRENDS
Mammals or mammal presence are now recorded on
90% of BBS squares. As a result, work is under way to
increase the outputs from these records. See page 23.
HABITAT RECORDING
This compulsory and valuable element of the BBS has,
in recent years, been the focus of two studies: habitatspecific bird trends and changes in land use since 1994.
fieldworker & bbs forms: DAVID TIPLING, duke of burgundy: JOHN FLOWERDAY, Rook & brown hare: JOHN HARDING, heather: dawn balmer
4
BBS News and Methods
BACKGROUND AND METHODS
The BBS was launched, in 1994, to provide more representative habitat and
geographical coverage than the main survey running at the time, the Common
Birds Census (CBC). The CBC ended in 2000, and the overlap period between
1994 and 2000 allowed the BTO to develop methods for calculating long-term
trends (from the 1960s to the present) using information from both schemes.
The BBS is a line-transect survey based on randomly located 1-km squares. Squares
are chosen through stratified random sampling, with more squares in areas with more
potential volunteers. The difference in sampling densities is taken into account when
calculating trends. BBS volunteers make two early-morning visits to their square
during the April–June survey period, recording all birds encountered while walking
two 1-km transects across their square. Each 1-km transect is divided into five 200m
sections for ease of recording. Birds are recorded in three distance categories, or as ‘in
flight’, in order to assess detectability and work out species density. To assess further
the detectability of species the option of recording how birds were first detected (by
Song, Call or Visually) was introduced in 2014. Observers also record the habitat
along the transects, and record any mammals seen during the survey. Surveying a
BBS square involves around six hours of fieldwork per year, and the aim is for each
volunteer to survey the same square (or squares) every year.
As BBS squares are randomly selected, they can turn up within any kind of habitat.
Some squares can never be surveyed, and these truly ‘uncoverable’ sites are removed
from the system. However, squares that are temporarily inaccessible, or which are
not taken up due to their remote location, are retained in order to maintain the
integrity of the sampling design.
The BBS National Organiser, based at BTO HQ, is responsible for the overall
running of the scheme, and is the main point of contact for the network of
volunteer Regional Organisers (ROs). ROs are responsible for finding new
volunteers and allocating squares to observers in their region. At the end of the
season they validate submissions made online, and collect paper submissions and
return them to BTO HQ. We are very grateful for the assistance of the ROs.
The BBS provides reliable population trends for a large proportion of our breeding
species. Trends can also be produced for specific countries, regions or habitats.
For these analyses, we take the higher count from the two visits for each species,
summed over all four distance categories and ten transect sections. Only squares
that have been surveyed in at least two years are included in the analyses. Population
changes are estimated using a log-linear model with Poisson error terms. Counts are
modelled as a function of year and site effects, weighted to account for differences in
sampling densities across the UK, with standard errors adjusted for overdispersion.
Since 2009, data from additional randomly selected 1-km squares surveyed as part
of the Scottish Woodland BBS and the Upland BBS have been included in the BBS
sample. These squares were surveyed using the same methodology as standard BBS
squares, and results were incorporated into trends accounting for additional sampling
effort. Since 2010, the option of adding an Upland Adjacent square to an existing
‘Eligible Upland’ BBS square has been encouraged, with the aim of increasing
coverage in upland areas. These data are treated separately during the analyses.
Work has been carried out to assess the reliability of BBS trends, to ensure that
reported trends are based on reliable data and sufficient sample sizes. This work has
resulted in the following exclusions and caveats:
• We do not report population trends for five species of gull (Black-headed,
Common, Lesser Black-backed, Herring and Great Black-backed), as a large
proportion of the records are of non-breeding, wintering or migratory individuals.
• Trends for rare breeding species with substantial wintering populations (e.g.
Fieldfare) are excluded.
• Trends for Cormorant, Grey Heron, Little Egret and Common Tern are
reported with the caveat that counts may contain a high proportion of birds
away from breeding sites.
• Trends for Tawny Owl and Barn Owl are reported with the caveat that the
BBS monitors nocturnal species poorly.
• Counts for six wader species (Oystercatcher, Golden Plover, Lapwing, Snipe, Curlew
and Redshank) are corrected to exclude counts from non-breeding flocks, and
observations of Golden Plover in habitat unsuitable for breeding are also excluded.
PUBLISHED PAPERS...
Jørgensen, P.S., Böhning-Gaese, K., Thorup, K., Tøttrup, A.P.,
Chylarecki, P., Jiguet, F., Lehikoinen, A., Noble, D.G., Reif,
J., Schmid, H., van Turnhout, C., Burfield, I.J., Foppen, R.,
ˇ
Voríšek,
P., van Strien, A., Gregory, R.D. & Rahbek, C. 2016.
Continent-scale global change attribution in European
birds – combining annual and decadal time scales. Global
Change Biology 22: 530–543.
Massimino, D., Johnston, A. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W. 2015.
The geographical range of British birds expands during 15
years of warming. Bird Study 62: 523–534.
Morrison, C.A., Robinson, R.A. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W. (in
press). Winter wren populations show adaptation to local
climate. Open Science.
Stephens, P.A., Mason, L.R., Green, R.E., Gregory, R.D.,
Sauer, J.R., Alison, J, Aunins, A., Brotons, L., Butchart,
S.H.M., Campedelli, T., Chodkiewicz, T., Chylarecki, P.,
Crowe, O., Elts, J., Escandell, V., Foppen, R.P.B., Heldbjerg,
H., Herrando, S., Husby, M., Jiguet, F., Lehikoinen, A.,
Lindström, Å., Noble, D.G., Paquet, J.-Y., Reif, J., Sattler, T.,
Szép, T., Teufelbauer, N., Trautmann, S., van Strien, A.J., van
Turnhout, C.A.M., Voríšek,
P. & Willis, S.G. 2016. Consistent
ˇ
response of bird populations to climate change on two
continents. Science 352: 84–87.
Sullivan, M.J.P., Newson, S.E. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W.
2016. Changing densities of generalist species underlie
apparent homogenization of UK bird communities. Ibis
158: 645–655.
Yuan, Y., Buckland, S.T., Harrison, P.J., Foss, S. & Johnston, A.
2016. Using species proportions to quantify turnover
in biodiversity. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and
Environmental Statistics 21: 363–381.
Further reading
Robinson, R.A., Marchant, J.H., Leech, D.I., Massimino,
D., Sullivan, M.J.P., Eglington, S.M., Barimore, C., Dadam,
D., Downie, I.S., Hammond, M.J., Harris, S.J., Noble, D.G.,
Walker, R.H. & Baillie, S.R. 2015. BirdTrends 2015:
trends in numbers, breeding success and survival for
UK breeding birds. Research Report 678. BTO, Thetford.
(www.bto.org/birdtrends)
Hayhow, D.B., Bond, A.L., Eaton, M.A., Grice, P.V., Hall,
C., Hall, J., Harris, S.J., Hearn, R.D., Holt, C.A., Noble, D.G.,
Stroud, D.A. & Wotton, S. 2015. The state of the UK’s birds
2015. RSPB, BTO, WWT, JNCC, NE, NIEA, NRW and SNH,
Sandy, Bedfordshire.
(www.bto.org/sites/default/files/u16/downloads/SUKB/state-of-ukbirds-2015.pdf)
JNCC2014. Seabird Population Trends and Causes of
Change: 1986–2013 Report. Joint Nature Conservation
Committee. (www.jncc.defra.gov.uk/page-3201)
Defra 2015. Wild bird populations in the UK, 1970 to
2014. (www.gov.uk/government/statistics/wild-bird-populations-inthe-uk)
PECBMS 2015. Trends of common birds in Europe, 2015
update. (www.ebcc.info/index.php?ID=587)
5
6
BBS Research and Outputs
Birds of Conservation Concern 4:
the Red List for Birds
The latest review of the Birds of Conservation Concern
and its relationship with the BBS
By Mark Eaton, Principal Conservation Scientist, RSPB
It is an unavoidable fact that resources for
conservation effort are limited. This has always
been the case, but the economic turmoil of
recent years, with an accompanying reduction
in Government spending on conservation,
means this may never have been more true.
As a consequence, we need to ensure the
resources that are available are used efficiently,
and directed wisely. One well-recognised way to
ensure this is to identify the species that most
urgently require conservation action.
BOCC4
Birds of Conservation Concern (BoCC) reviews have been
conducted at regular intervals since 1996; the fourth was
published in 2015. These reviews use a wide range of
high-quality data on the status of birds in the UK, the
Channel Islands and the Isle of Man to assign them to
Red, Amber or Green lists of conservation concern, with
Red-listed species being those which most need our help.
Although methods have been tweaked over the years,
to adapt to changing circumstances and in particular
the gradual improvement in data on birds’ status, all
four BoCC reviews have followed the same principles.
All species with regularly occurring UK populations are
assessed against a set of standardised criteria, each of
which measures an important aspect of their population
status. Criteria are in two groups, Red and Amber; species
are assessed against all of these criteria, and are placed on
the highest-priority list for which they qualify. If a species
meets none of the criteria, it is placed on the Green list.
THE RESULTS
In a nutshell, the results of BoCC4 were bad news for
the UK’s birds (see Figure 1). Twenty species moved
onto the Red list, which expanded to a highest-ever 67
species, a net increase of 16 since the last review in 2009.
In addition, three species – Temminck’s Stint, Wryneck
and Serin – were considered to have ceased breeding in
the UK. Although all three have never been more than
very rare breeders in recent years, the Wryneck was once
common and widespread – had the BBS been going a
hundred years ago, many surveyors would have recorded
it on their transects!
As with previous BoCC reviews, farmland and woodland
birds remain particular concerns, with three new
woodland birds – Woodcock, Nightingale and Pied
Flycatcher – joining the Red list. Worries for our seabirds
and long-distance migrants, first highlighted by BoCC3,
Red-list criteria
Globalconservationstatus
Listed as Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable on the IUCN Global Red List
Historicaldecline
Assessed as having declined severely since 1800, without substantial recovery
Breedingpopulationdecline
Severe decline (>50%) over 25 years, or a longer-term period stretching back to 1969
Non-breedingpopulationdecline
Threshold and periods as for assessing breeding populations
Breedingrangedecline
Severe decline (>50% of occupied 10-km squares) in breeding range between the breeding bird atlases in
1988–91 and 2007–11, or 1968–71 and 2007–11
Non-breedingrangedecline
Severe decline in non-breeding range between the wintering bird atlases in 1981–84 and 2007–11
Amber-list criteria
A longer list including European conservation status, partial recovery from historical decline, moderate decline in population or range, breeding or nonbreeding rarity, localisation or international importance. Full details can be found in the BoCC4 paper in British Birds (see ‘Find out more’ for details).
BBS Research and Outputs
Table 1Red-listed species monitored by the BBS
GreyPartridge
Skylark
TreeSparrow
Mistle Thrush
Lapwing
WoodWarbler
yellowWagtail
Nightingale
Curlew
GrasshopperWarbler
TreePipit
Pied Flycatcher
TurtleDove
Starling
Linnet
Whinchat
Cuckoo
SongThrush
Lesserredpoll
Grey Wagtail
WillowTit
Spottedflycatcher
yellowhammer
MarshTit
HouseSparrow
CornBunting
All were Red-listed due to declines in the breeding population, measured by BBS trend, in most cases in combination with its
predecessor, the Common Birds Census. Some also qualified against other Red-list criteria, such as the globally Red-listed Turtle Dove.
Species Red-listed for the first time by BoCC4 are given in italics.
continue to grow. Moreover, the new Red list emphasises
new concern for our upland birds, with this report’s cover
star, the Grey Wagtail, being one of five upland birds
moving to the Red list.
The results did, however, give some cause for hope, with a
few species moving ‘the right way’ thanks to conservation
action – for example Bittern moved from Red to Amber,
and Red Kite, now so widespread it was recorded in 429
BBS squares in 2015, moved to the Green list.
THE IMPORTANCE OF BBS DATA
BBS data are a vital component of BoCC assessments,
providing breeding population trends now for 111
species: when combined with those from its predecessor,
the Common Birds Census, these data allow us to
measure population changes from the 1960s onwards. Of
the newly Red-listed species, five were relatively common
and widespread breeding species for which BBS data
Figure 1Changes in the BoCC lists over
300
the four assessments
250
200
150
100
Pied Flycatcher now joins the Red list.
revealed severe population declines. These joined 21 BBS
species already on the Red list (Table 1).
Of course, the value of BBS data in directing conservation
efforts does not stop with the creation of priority lists.
Combined with other data sources, such as the Bird Atlas
2007–11, the BBS can help us to target conservation
effort for particular species. Maps of density and trends
produced from BBS data (see www.bto.org/bbs-maps)
can assist in the spatial targeting of action, and habitatspecific trends, as described in the 2013 BBS report, can
help us identify whether a species is struggling in any
particular habitat. Furthermore, the BBS data can provide
an invaluable research resource for determining the causes
of declines in conservation priority species; for example,
current research is using BBS data to help understand the
recent declines that have led to the Red-listing of Curlew.
50
PiEDfLyCATCHEr:JOHNHArDiNG
0
BoCC1
(1996)
BoCC2
(2002)
BoCC3
(2009)
BoCC4
(2015)
FIND OUT MORE...
Eaton, M.A., Aebischer, N.J., Brown, A.F., Hearn, R.D., Lock, L.,
Musgrove, A.J., Noble, D.G., Stroud, D.A. & Gregory, R.D. 2015.
Birds of Conservation Concern 4: the population status of
birds in the United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of
Man. British Birds 108: 708–746. (www.britishbirds.co.uk/wpcontent/uploads/2014/07/BoCC4.pdf)
7
8
Introducing the WBBS
The Waterways
Breeding Bird Survey
What is the Waterways Breeding Bird Survey and how does
it contribute to the monitoring of breeding birds in the UK?
By John Marchant, Projects Coordinator, BTO
Waterways are unique landscape features that
provide highly specialised wildlife habitats and
join them all up, through the continuity of water
flow, into the ultimate wildlife corridors across
the countryside. Whereas rivers are confined
within catchments, canals can link waterway
habitats across the natural watersheds. But
these habitats are very vulnerable – especially
to waterborne pollutants, to invasions of nonnative species and to water abstraction – and
their continuity can be broken by destruction
and disturbance, for example through bankside
development, dredging and straightening, or
water sports.
Table 2Monitoring results for waders
breeding along UK waterways
Species
Snipe
Lapwing
CommonSandpiper
redshank
Curlew
Oystercatcher
Years
1975–2014
1980–2014
1975–2014
1975–2014
1980–2014
1975–2014
% change
-91 *
-49 *
-48 *
-47
-26
42
LCL
UCL
-98
-63
-66
-22
-65
-22
-73
6
-55
19
-16
139
• Trends are expressed as the percentage change, and are marked with an
asterisk (*) where the 95% confidence limits of the change do not overlap zero
(indicating that there has been a significant change).
• The trends for the years stated in Table 2 have been smoothed, and the end
years truncated.
• LCL and UCL are the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for each trend.
• Red-listed and Amber-listed species from ‘Birds of Conservation Concern 4’ are
shown in the relevant colour.
WBS AND WBBS
HOW ARE WBBS DATA USED?
BTO began annual monitoring for birds along rivers and
canals back in 1974, because it was realised that coverage
of these linear features fell well short of their importance
for birds. Until 2007 there was a mapping census
(Waterways Bird Survey – WBS) but since 1998 we have
used a transect method modelled closely on that of BBS
(Waterways Breeding Bird Survey – WBBS). As with
BBS, there is a nominal 1-km square (though WBBS
stretches can be up to 5-km long) and birds are recorded
in distance bands. WBBS sections follow the bank of a
river or canal, however, and are 500m long as opposed to
200m for BBS – its longer units being set to match those
of the Environment Agency’s (EA) River Habitat Survey.
WBBS transects run through consistently rich habitats
and are typically about half as long again as BBS ones.
Because of this, WBBS sample sizes, though running
at only around 8% of BBS’s number of squares, allow
more than 80 bird species to be monitored. For 25
of these, longer-term indices starting as early as 1974
can be produced in conjunction with data from the
mapping WBS. The long-term indices form a major part
of BirdTrends, the BTO’s annual online compilation
of monitoring data for common birds. WBS/WBBS
provides the headline index in BirdTrends for 13
species, for which CBC/BBS data are considered less
representative. Thus WBBS improves BBS’s coverage of
species, while also extending its habitat-specific coverage
to an additional habitat category. Table 2 highlights the
varied fortunes of breeding waders along waterways.
Though the EA contributed to WBBS development, it
has been difficult for BTO to fund the survey and, in
particular, to set up an online option. With the agreement
of the BBS partners, this aim was achieved in 2014 and
73% of 279 returns were submitted online that year.
Observers can access WBBS Online by logging in to BBS,
where they see their sites listed alongside any BBS squares
they may also be covering. By 2015, 248 of 297 returns
(84%) had been submitted online, approaching levels of
online take-up achieved by BBS itself.
Often, WBBS data can contribute to questions of local
conservation or site management, or are part of wider or
longer-term projects. They have been used in conjunction
with River Habitat Survey data to assess the habitat
associations of waterways birds and there is scope for
linking them to other environmental data, for example to
investigate further how birds respond to water quality.
Introducing the WBBS
WBS and WBBS data prompted Grey Wagtail’s move last year from the Amber to the Red category of Birds of Conservation Concern.
The most striking trend revealed by WBBS is probably
the loss of 97% of Yellow Wagtails since 1975. The rate
of loss from waterside habitats has been much faster
than from the countryside as a whole, with CBC/BBS
recording a 71% loss over a longer period (since 1967).
Such differences provide a strong clue to the underlying
reasons for decline. Most trends, however, tally well
between WBBS and BBS. For some purposes, we
combine WBBS counts with those from BBS, especially
for scarcer waterways birds and mammals where data are
sparse from both schemes.
THE FUTURE FOR WBBS
Going online has reduced running costs for WBBS
and thus will help to safeguard the scheme’s long-term
continuity. Climate change, as manifested already in
UK by greater extremes of flood and drought, will
undoubtedly bring greater challenges for waterways birds
in the future. Several studies have already used WBBS data
to explore how changes in river flow affect riverine ecology
(see below).
CAN YOU HELP?
WBBS needs more support to cover the random sites
that have already been selected. Many of these are in
upland parts of the UK that have few resident observers
but often are well suited to someone who could make
two survey visits from further afield – though we do not
want to distract any BBS observers from their existing
commitments!
We are looking into the best way to expand the random
sample for WBBS especially in regions where observers
are more likely to be available and without impacting on
BBS coverage.
As with BBS, contributing is open
to anyone who feels competent at
bird identification by sight
and sound and has
the necessary
physical fitness.
FIND OUT MORE...
www.bto.org/wbbs
www.bto.org/birdtrends
GrEyWAGTAiL:EDMuNDfELLOWES
Vaughan, I.P., Noble, D.G. & Ormerod, S.J. 2007. Combining
surveys of river habitats and river birds to appraise riverine
hydromorphology. Freshwater Biology 52: 2270–2284.
Royan, A., Hannah, D.M., Reynolds, S.J., Noble, D.G. & Sadler,
J.P. 2014. River birds’ response to hydrological extremes:
new vulnerability index and conservation implications.
Biological Conservation 177: 64–73.
Royan, A., Prudhomme, C., Hannah, D.M., Reynolds, S.J., Noble,
D.G. & Sadler, J.P. 2015. Climate-induced changes in river
flow regimes will alter future bird distributions. Ecosphere
6 (4): 50. doi: 10.1890/ES14-00245.1
WBBS sites active in 2015 (circles) and those currently seeking an
observer (triangles). Can you offer to cover an unvisited site? If so,
please email Sarah Harris at wbbs@bto.org
9
10 Coverage and Species Recorded
3,731
What was seen and
where was surveyed?
square
s we
survey re
ed
in 2015
In 2015, 3,731 BBS squares were covered; when
looking at core BBS squares only, this is just 28
squares short of the all-time high in 2007. An
amazing effort! Thank you to all involved.
SIGHTINGS AND COVERAGE
So, what was seen on these squares? The highest species
count on a square was 68 and this occurred in two
squares; one in Suffolk, the other in Buckinghamshire.
These counts are equally as valuable as the 41 squares
where five or fewer species were recorded.
Unusual species included Wood Sandpiper, Lapland
Bunting, Little Gull, Kentish Plover and Bee-eater.
Once again, the most commonly recorded species was
Woodpigeon, with 142,778 individuals counted. In
total, 215 species were recorded by 2,784 dedicated
BBS volunteers.
Data on all species recorded during BBS visits are
equally valuable: from non-native species, rare breeding
birds, colony data, through to those species which pass
the reporting thresholds for country or regional BBS
population trends. All contribute to various analyses and
annual reporting.
Table 3Number of BBS squares surveyed
1994
1997 1998
1,173 1,325 1,420 1,657
1999 2000
2001 2002 2003 2004
1,713 1,792 1,749
533 1,652 1,739 1,886
Scotland
245
283
308
313
309
275
246
78
231
255
274
Wales
122
121
116
138
192
223
213
22
215
214
254
Northern
Ireland
25
17
65
75
85
95
83
0
97
109
102
Channel
Islands
1
1
7
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
11
Isle of Man
4
4
4
6
6
5
3
0
3
4
6
UK total
England
1,570 1,751 1,920 2,195 2,312 2,397 2,301
*640 2,205 2,328 2,533
2005 2006
2012
2007 2008 2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2,181 2,573 2,822 2,556 2,570 2,568 2,539 2,670 2,729 2,732 2,817
Scotland
305
336
517
436
431
331
359
383
473
480
473
Wales
271
272
269
242
235
247
224
274
331
339
338
Northern
Ireland
120
108
131
121
116
115
110
117
127
120
78
Channel
Islands
13
19
16
15
17
16
15
21
26
27
22
3
5
4
1
0
0
0
4
0
0
3
Isle of Man
UK total
Percentage of online submissions:
In 2015, 94% of submissions were received via
the BBS Online system.
Notrecorded
2,893 3,313 3,759 3,371 3,369 3,277 3,251 3,469 3,686 3,698 3,731
*2001 – foot-and-mouth disease
Detectiontyperecorded
‘Detection Type’ was recorded on 74% of BBS
squares in 2015, an increase from 67% in 2014.
LAPLANDBuNTiNG:riCHArDBrOWN
England
1995 1996
Coverage and Species Recorded 11
COVERAGE OVERVIEW
Coverage appears similar to previous years and gaps remain in the more remote
areas. Here we see the distribution of the ‘core’ BBS squares, any ‘bolt-on’
Upland Adjacent squares and those squares introduced to the survey as
Scottish Woodland Squares, and still surveyed today.
Squares from the Upland BBS squares are not shown on this map nor
the figures on page 10 but data from these squares are included in
the data analysis and trend calculations for the years they were
surveyed. Please see ‘Backgrounds and Methods’
on page 5 for more information on
these surveys.
Northern Ireland
“Volunteer coverage has
increased greatly (by 16%) from
2014, a heartening increase.
Unfortunately the overall number
of squares surveyed fell considerably
(by 42 squares, 35%) because
professionally covered squares were
not surveyed due to a cut in funding.
We believe that this will be a shortterm blip and that these squares will be
covered in future years.”
KEY
Core BBS
Upland
Adjacent
Scottish
Woodland
Scotland
“It’s very pleasing to see high
levels of coverage, up near
500, maintained for the third
year running. Many thanks
to all of the volunteers who
tackle the Scottish geography
and climate to collect this
important information.”
Ben Darvill,BTODevelopmentand
EngagementManager,Scotland
Shane Wolsey,BTONorthern
irelandOfficer
Isle of Man
Thanks to the enthusiasm of two BBS volunteers on the Isle of Man,
three squares were covered in 2015 after two years without BBS
coverage on the island.
Wales
“BTO Cymru has delivered one of its key
objectives and has increased coverage by 37% over
the past 5 years. Retention and motivation of both
established and new volunteers is excellent and
they are to be congratulated for all their efforts.”
Kelvin Jones,BTODevelopmentOfficer,Wales
England
With an increase of three squares
between 2013 and 2014, a jump of
85 squares from 2014 to 2015 was
unexpected! It has resulted in England
being just five squares short of the alltime high of 2,822 in 2007.
Channel Islands
Twenty-two BBS squares were
covered on the Channel Islands in
2015, contributing to trends and
keeping Short-toed Treecreeper on
the BBS species list!
12 Population Trends
Tu r t l e
declin Dove
ed by
United Kingdom –
population trends
93%
in the U
K betwe
en
1995 a
nd 2014
UK trends for 111 species, 26 of which are on
the Red list of Birds of Conservation Concern 4
BoCC4
The updated lists of Birds of
Conservation Concern 4 were released
in December 2015. More information
on this update and the major changes
to the Red, Amber and Green lists can
be found on pages 6–7.
Of the 26 Red-listed species monitored
by the BBS, 18 are in statistically
significant long-term decline, with
Turtle Dove having declined the most
in this group. Song Thrush (15%), Tree
Sparrow (125%) and Lesser Redpoll
(38%) showed statistically significant
increases between 1995 and 2014.
Twenty-three Amber-listed species are
monitored by BBS. Long term, four
have decreased statistically significantly,
Oystercatcher (19%), Swift (47%),
Kestrel (36%) and Willow Warbler
(8%) and seven have increased.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
The largest statistically significant
long-term (1995–2014) increases
included Ring-necked Parakeet
(1,314%), Red Kite (1,026%)
and Barn Owl (227%) and the
largest declines include Turtle Dove
(93%), Willow Tit (77%) and Grey
Partridge (58%).
Short-term (2014–15) increases
included Barn Owl (78%) and
Kestrel (42%) and the largest
decreases were for Whitethroat (17%)
and Yellow Wagtail (17%).
TURTLE DOVE
The 93% decline in Turtle Dove
between 1995 and 2014 is the largest
decline of all the species monitored by
the BBS.
This trend is mirrored across Europe,
with a decline of 78% from 1980 to
2013 (PECBMS, 2015).
Several factors are thought to be
behind the Turtle Dove decline,
including agricultural changes
affecting breeding grounds here in
the UK, changing conditions in their
wintering grounds in West Africa and
hunting pressures during migration
through Europe.
In addition, trichomonosis, a disease
most commonly known as a factor
influencing Greenfinch declines
(by 39% since 1994) and which has
become prevalent since 2005, has been
recently observed in Turtle Dove.
RED KITE
The non-native Ring-necked Parakeet
(discussed on page 14) has seen the
largest statistically significant longterm increase in the UK, followed
by Red Kite, which has increased by
1,026% between 1995 and 2014 and
has therefore been moved to the Green
list of BoCC4.
A combination of reintroduction
projects in England and Scotland,
along with the natural spread from
strongholds in Wales, has resulted in
this impressive increase.
‘ADD-ON’ SQUARES
‘Add-on’ squares surveyed over the
lifetime of the BBS, using BBS
methodologies, have been included
in these trends. These include
Upland BBS and Scottish Woodland
squares, both originally surveyed by
professional fieldworkers. The latter
are now surveyed by volunteers.
Upland Adjacent squares are also
covered by volunteers to increase
coverage in remote upland areas.
FIND OUT MORE...
PECBMS 2015. Trends of common
birds in Europe, 2015 update. (www.
ebcc.info/index.php?ID=587)
TurTLEDOVE:MOSSTAyLOr
Data from BBS squares across the UK
have been used to calculate population
trends for 111 species. These are mainly
the species that have been recorded
on an average of 40 squares since the
survey began. Due to their primarily
English distribution, Nightingale and
Mandarin Duck reach the reporting
threshold in England and are therefore
included in the UK trends.
Population Trends 13
Table 4 UK population trends during 2014–15 and 1995–2014
Species
MuteSwan
GreylagGoose
CanadaGoose
Shelduck
MandarinDuck
Gadwall
Mallard
TuftedDuck
Goosander
red-leggedPartridge
redGrouse
GreyPartridge
Pheasant
(Cormorant)
(LittleEgret)
(GreyHeron)
LittleGrebe
GreatCrestedGrebe
redKite
Sparrowhawk
Buzzard
Moorhen
Coot
Oystercatcher
GoldenPlover
Lapwing
Curlew
CommonSandpiper
redshank
Snipe
(CommonTern)
feralPigeon
StockDove
Woodpigeon
CollaredDove
TurtleDove
Cuckoo
(BarnOwl)
LittleOwl
(TawnyOwl)
Swift
Kingfisher
GreenWoodpecker
GtSpottedWoodpecker
Kestrel
Hobby
Peregrine
ring-neckedParakeet
Magpie
Jay
Jackdaw
rook
CarrionCrow
HoodedCrow
raven
Goldcrest
Sample
260
228
506
149
31
41
1,356
160
42
570
147
225
1,895
249
42
669
71
73
131
354
1,053
654
278
353
66
689
527
70
87
169
68
699
827
2,584
1,392
136
707
48
94
93
1,043
55
838
1,124
673
43
49
74
1,960
804
1,801
1,345
2,457
136
321
805
14–15
16
-15
2
5
2
19
8
38 *
82
15 *
9
30 *
2
11
22
4
18
18
30 *
26 *
6
8
13 *
-5
18
8
-13 *
1
22
19
-55
-1
13
7*
1
-12
-1
78 *
-10
-22
-3
-19
14 *
2
42 *
31
2
-6
-2
-1
9*
6
-2
5
1
8
95–14
29 *
211
84 *
-6
418
105 *
15 *
38 *
-12
13 *
19
-58 *
32 *
15
2,448
-13 *
33
13
1,026*
-11
80 *
-12 *
19
-19 *
-16
-43 *
-48 *
-15
-39
16
17
-18 *
22 *
36 *
8*
-93 *
-43 *
227 *
-58 *
-21
-47 *
-17
31 *
136 *
-36 *
-10
-13
1,314*
0
25 *
57 *
-20 *
19 *
19
45 *
3
• Trends are expressed as the percentage change, and
marked with an asterisk (*) where the 95% confidence
limits of the change do not overlap zero (indicating that
there has been a significant change).
• Trends for species in brackets are reported with caveats
(see pg5).
• The sample is the mean number of squares per year on
which the species was recorded during 1994–2015.
LCL
UCL
1
77
0
570
49
136
-50
38
notestimable
17
262
4
29
8
90
-46
64
2
28
-2
46
-66
-48
23
39
-12
53
notestimable
-23
-1
-14
90
-28
48
593
2,089
-22
4
62
102
-20
-3
-4
48
-31
-7
-35
5
-50
-35
-53
-41
-35
7
-60
3
-7
43
-57
171
-29
-3
4
37
29
45
0
18
-95
-90
-49
-34
111
417
-68
-47
-39
0
-53
-38
-39
32
22
44
121
155
-42
-29
-41
28
-42
23
524
6,756
-5
5
14
35
43
72
-29
-10
9
29
-14
52
1
110
-12
18
Species
BlueTit
GreatTit
CoalTit
WillowTit
MarshTit
Skylark
SandMartin
Swallow
HouseMartin
Long-tailedTit
WoodWarbler
Chiffchaff
WillowWarbler
Blackcap
GardenWarbler
LesserWhitethroat
Whitethroat
GrasshopperWarbler
SedgeWarbler
reedWarbler
Nuthatch
Treecreeper
Wren
Starling
Dipper
Blackbird
SongThrush
MistleThrush
Spottedflycatcher
robin
Nightingale
Piedflycatcher
redstart
Whinchat
Stonechat
Wheatear
Dunnock
HouseSparrow
TreeSparrow
yellowWagtail
GreyWagtail
PiedWagtail
TreePipit
MeadowPipit
Chaffinch
Bullfinch
Greenfinch
Linnet
Lesserredpoll
Crossbill
Goldfinch
Siskin
yellowhammer
reedBunting
CornBunting
• The trend since the start of the survey, covering the
years 1994–2015, has been smoothed, and the end
years truncated. This trend is labelled as 1995–2014.
• LCL and UCL are the lower and upper 95% confidence
limits for the 1995–2014 trend.
• Red-listed and Amber-listed species from ‘Birds of
Conservation Concern 4’ are shown in the relevant
colour.
Sample
2,395
2,276
850
48
148
1,782
136
2,046
953
993
53
1,593
1,418
1,682
454
280
1,414
84
304
131
527
366
2,533
1,773
63
2,561
2,058
1,174
191
2,456
33
40
179
77
154
355
2,136
1,655
191
160
221
1,295
145
826
2,574
634
1,807
1,233
172
59
1,726
191
1,207
517
144
14–15
2
10 *
-3
-3
-21
-5
13
6
10
12 *
-32
9*
-3
6*
3
-2
-17 *
17
-6
7
2
-7
-1
-6
-11
0
7*
-1
-1
8*
-28
89
-5
-7
-15
0
3
0
3
-17 *
-13
-1
-21
2
2
9
-5
34 *
4
12
18 *
37 *
1
9
24 *
95–14
3
40 *
3
-77 *
-32 *
-24 *
22
26 *
-10
12 *
-56 *
96 *
-8 *
151 *
-19 *
2
33 *
-18
-6
13
94 *
7
20 *
-49 *
-20
22 *
15 *
-28 *
-44 *
17 *
-40
-48 *
47 *
-53 *
29
-11
22 *
-5
125 *
-42 *
-12
-2
16
-9
4
9
-39 *
-25 *
38 *
16
117 *
59 *
-14 *
29 *
-34 *
LCL
UCL
-1
7
34
47
-7
15
-84
-67
-44
-17
-28
-18
-27
120
19
36
-18
0
1
22
-75
-23
85
111
-15
-1
134
169
-31
-6
-14
19
24
46
-43
21
-27
16
-10
46
73
119
-8
22
14
25
-53
-44
-48
28
18
28
8
22
-34
-21
-59
-26
13
21
-61
6
-74
-17
26
75
-68
-38
-3
74
-24
10
16
28
-11
3
72
193
-54
-26
-29
5
-10
6
-16
55
-16
1
0
9
-3
23
-43
-35
-30
-18
10
72
-24
79
101
137
17
98
-21
-7
11
48
-48
-19
TREND GRAPHS
ONLINE:
www.bto.org/bbs/graphs
14 Population Trends
Willow
declin Tit
ed by
England –
population trends
78%
in Engla
nd b
1995 a etween
nd 2014
The number of species trends for England increases as Peregine
and Mandarin Duck join the list, bringing the total to 105
Snipe showed a short-term increase
of 68% between 2014 and 2015. By
studying counts from the early visits
over the years it is suspected this may
be partly due to overwintering birds
lingering for longer in the spring.
Larger flocks are excluded from the
trend calculations for six wader species,
including Snipe (see page 5). However,
sparsely distributed non-breeding birds
would have been included.
One hundred and five species now
reach the English reporting threshold
of 30 squares, on average, since
the survey began. Peregrine and
Mandarin Duck are new additions
and Crossbill sits just below the
reporting threshold.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
Statistically significant changes in
England include 69 long-term and 33
short-term trends.
The largest long-term (1995–2014)
increases were for Red Kite (10,299%)
and Ring-necked Parakeet (1,314%)
and biggest declines were for Turtle
Dove (93%), Willow Tit (78%) and
Cuckoo (68%).
Short term (2014–15), the largest
changes were increases in Barn Owl
(88%), Siskin (81%) and Snipe
(68%) and declines in Tawny Owl
(42%) and Yellow Wagtail (17%).
Mandarin Duck has now reached the
threshold for reporting in England. As the
sample size increases, the trend will become
more robust. This highlights the importance of
recording non-native species during the BBS.
England, increasingly seen inland and
nesting on man-made structures.
RING-NECKED PARAKEET
Ring-necked Parakeet has
undergone one of the largest longterm increases of all species reported
in England, by 1,314% between 1995
and 2014.
BirdTrack (see www.birdtrack.net)
reporting rates for England show that
complete lists with Snipe records
were slightly higher later in the spring
in 2015 than historically, but had
returned to ‘normal’ levels by the
middle of the breeding season.
This invasive species, native to Africa
and southern Asia, was first recorded
breeding in the wild in 1971 and
between the 1968–72 and 1988–1991
breeding atlases had spread from Kent
and Greater London, but remained
largely in southeastern England.
Now, Ring-necked Parakeets have
colonised Liverpool, Manchester,
Sheffield and Birmingham.
PEREGRINE POPULATIONS
‘ADD-ON’ SQUARES
Peregrine numbers have undergone
a remarkable recovery since the ban
of organochlorine pesticides and the
species has spread eastwards across
Data from ‘add-on’ Upland BBS
squares, surveyed by professional
fieldworkers in previous years, are
included in these trends.
PErEGriNE:DENNiSATHErTON,MANDAriNDuCK:SArAHHArriS
SNIPE SUCCESS?
Population Trends 15
Table 5 Trends in England during 2014–15 and 1995–2014
Species
MuteSwan
GreylagGoose
CanadaGoose
Shelduck
MandarinDuck
Gadwall
Mallard
TuftedDuck
red-leggedPartridge
redGrouse
GreyPartridge
Pheasant
(Cormorant)
(LittleEgret)
(GreyHeron)
LittleGrebe
GreatCrestedGrebe
redKite
Sparrowhawk
Buzzard
Moorhen
Coot
Oystercatcher
Lapwing
Curlew
CommonSandpiper
redshank
Snipe
(CommonTern)
feralPigeon
StockDove
Woodpigeon
CollaredDove
TurtleDove
Cuckoo
(BarnOwl)
LittleOwl
(TawnyOwl)
Swift
Kingfisher
GreenWoodpecker
GtSpottedWoodpecker
Kestrel
Hobby
Peregrine
ring-neckedParakeet
Magpie
Jay
Jackdaw
rook
CarrionCrow
raven
Goldcrest
Sample
223
188
468
122
30
39
1,137
139
552
87
201
1,592
208
38
550
56
67
96
295
719
605
251
197
578
344
31
62
91
63
573
763
2,065
1,213
134
550
46
91
80
900
49
785
980
593
42
30
74
1,639
693
1,447
1,071
2,019
149
573
14–15
11
19
6
10
6
17
10 *
20 *
11 *
-12
24
3
39 *
23
-2
-2
17
36 *
25 *
14 *
8
17 *
-2
2
-8
-4
0
68 *
18
3
15 *
8*
1
-10
-10
88 *
-13
-42 *
-4
-16
13 *
4
43 *
34
-31
-6
0
1
11 *
2
2
8
21 *
95–14
13
283 *
67 *
24
426
99 *
26 *
22
6
19
-55 *
31 *
14
2,375
-20 *
15
-2
LCL
UCL
-13
47
131
598
39
118
-22
67
notestimable
17
270
13
40
-4
60
-6
21
-14
74
-64
-45
20
39
-6
50
notestimable
-32
-7
-27
70
-30
30
>10,000* 7,262
16,395
-17 *
182 *
-14 *
19
53 *
-26 *
-33 *
-42 *
-32 *
5
23
-26 *
18 *
39 *
4
-93 *
-68 *
242 *
-59 *
-23
-46 *
-10
42 *
112 *
-23 *
-7
44
1,314*
1
10 *
65 *
-12 *
26 *
121
26 *
-27
-7
140
244
-22
-5
-4
44
26
83
-34
-17
Species
BlueTit
GreatTit
CoalTit
WillowTit
MarshTit
Skylark
SandMartin
Swallow
HouseMartin
Long-tailedTit
Chiffchaff
WillowWarbler
Blackcap
GardenWarbler
LesserWhitethroat
Whitethroat
GrasshopperWarbler
SedgeWarbler
reedWarbler
Nuthatch
Treecreeper
Wren
Starling
Dipper
Blackbird
SongThrush
MistleThrush
Spottedflycatcher
robin
Nightingale
redstart
Whinchat
Stonechat
Wheatear
Dunnock
HouseSparrow
TreeSparrow
yellowWagtail
GreyWagtail
PiedWagtail
TreePipit
MeadowPipit
Chaffinch
Bullfinch
Greenfinch
Linnet
Lesserredpoll
Goldfinch
Siskin
yellowhammer
reedBunting
CornBunting
Sample
1,943
1,844
569
43
134
1,423
86
1,576
740
879
1,337
945
1,432
369
267
1,216
39
194
124
449
273
1,983
1,446
31
2,040
1,609
931
134
1,942
33
100
33
68
201
1,741
1,351
150
156
150
981
75
448
2,008
490
1,525
1,000
67
1,423
72
1,048
391
137
Table 5 Trends in Wales during 2013–14 and 1995–2013
• Trends are expressed as the percentage change, and
marked with an asterisk (*) where the 95% confidence
limits of the change do not overlap zero (indicating that
there has been a significant change).
• Trends for species in brackets are reported with caveats
(see pg5).
• The sample is the mean number of squares per year on
which the species was recorded during 1994–2015.
-42
-25
-60
-18
-52
-7
-22
46
-15
116
-36
-12
5
35
30
48
-4
11
-95
-90
-72
-65
145
416
-69
-48
-38
2
-54
-37
-36
28
31
55
97
132
-29
-12
-40
40
-14
137
479
7,383
-4
5
2
19
54
80
-22
0
17
35
-1
322
9
47
• The trend since the start of the survey, covering the
years 1994–2015, has been smoothed, and the end
years truncated. This trend is labelled as 1995–2014.
• LCL and UCL are the lower and upper 95% confidence
limits for the 1995–2014 trend.
• Red-listed and Amber-listed species from ‘Birds of
Conservation Concern 4’ are shown in the relevant
colour.
14–15
2
11 *
6
-6
-8
-6 *
4
2
4
15 *
8*
-1
8*
-5
-1
-13 *
30
-7
5
4
1
5*
-6
-18
-1
6*
3
-11
9*
-28
-1
-8
10
4
4*
1
-8
-17 *
-10
10
23
4
0
-3
-10 *
31 *
-8
13 *
81 *
3
9
14
95–14
1
30 *
22 *
-78 *
-35 *
-23 *
13
23 *
-29 *
8
97 *
-41 *
120 *
-28 *
2
32 *
-35
-21
13
93 *
1
15 *
-60 *
-32
18 *
13 *
-40 *
-61 *
21 *
-39
31 *
-37 *
24
0
15 *
-17 *
72 *
-42 *
2
-8 *
-44 *
-7
1
2
-36 *
-24 *
2
111 *
73
-25 *
34 *
-34 *
LCL
UCL
-3
5
24
37
4
40
-85
-68
-49
-20
-27
-18
-32
54
15
31
-38
-18
-1
20
87
109
-47
-35
106
136
-37
-18
-14
16
23
39
-57
1
-42
3
-11
43
73
117
-15
14
9
19
-62
-56
-59
21
14
23
7
21
-45
-35
-70
-50
15
26
-62
17
2
58
-69
-12
-24
102
-27
41
8
22
-23
-9
26
115
-53
-31
-20
21
-14
0
-61
-16
-19
5
-3
7
-8
13
-40
-31
-31
-14
-35
53
93
128
-26
308
-30
-21
17
53
-50
-16
TREND GRAPHS
ONLINE:
www.bto.org/bbs/graphs
16 Population Trends
Blac
increa kcap
sed by
Scotland –
population trends
465%
in Scotl
and bet
ween
1995 a
nd 2014
Scottish trends for 62 species, showing long-term
increases of over 100% in three warbler species
over time, increased coverage will assist
in these species reaching the threshold.
Sixty-two species trends have been
calculated for Scotland. The species
included are those which have been
recorded on at least 30 BBS squares,
on average, since the survey began,
thus reaching the reporting threshold
for the country. Stock Dove, Tree
Sparrow and Greylag Goose remain
just below the reporting threshold and
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
Of the 62 population trends calculated
for Scotland, 33 long-term (1995–
2014) trends and six short-term
(2014–15) trends were statistically
significant.
Blackcap and Chiffchaff had the
largest long-term increases. Kestrel
(62%), Curlew (57%) and Lapwing
(57%) have undergone the largest
declines, long-term.
Short-term, Linnet increased the most
(65%) and both Whitethroat and Tree
Pipit had the largest decline (30%).
Table 6 Trends in Scotland during 2014–15 and 1995–2014
Species
Mallard
redGrouse
Pheasant
(GreyHeron)
Buzzard
Oystercatcher
GoldenPlover
Lapwing
Curlew
CommonSandpiper
Snipe
feralPigeon
Woodpigeon
CollaredDove
Cuckoo
Swift
GtSpottedWoodpecker
Kestrel
Magpie
Jackdaw
rook
CarrionCrow
HoodedCrow
raven
Goldcrest
BlueTit
GreatTit
CoalTit
Skylark
SandMartin
Swallow
Sample
111
55
151
54
153
138
38
89
128
35
61
69
224
57
77
54
56
42
55
129
118
208
53
51
97
178
166
139
220
33
192
14–15
-7
23
-2
0
-7
-8
20
14
-18
1
12
6
5
-1
1
5
-8
45
25
9
16
-9
-1
0
-8
2
11
-13 *
-3
23
10
95–14
-17
12
25 *
0
23
-33 *
-25 *
-57 *
-57 *
-13
20
13
13
18
29 *
-54 *
414 *
-62 *
32
25
-37 *
-2
-26
41
6
7
70 *
-12
-26 *
42
42 *
• Trends are expressed as the percentage change, and
marked with an asterisk (*) where the 95% confidence
limits of the change do not overlap zero (indicating that
there has been a significant change).
• Trends for species in brackets are reported with caveats
(see pg5).
• The sample is the mean number of squares per year on
which the species was recorded during 1994–2015.
LCL
UCL
-31
3
-9
45
2
54
-29
29
0
57
-46
-17
-45
-6
-67
-47
-65
-45
-35
7
-8
58
-36
91
-12
39
-29
89
3
60
-70
-35
269
574
-74
-43
-8
98
-4
66
-55
-9
-22
31
-58
9
-12
123
-23
49
-9
20
42
107
-27
9
-37
-13
-39
348
19
74
Species
HouseMartin
Long-tailedTit
Chiffchaff
WillowWarbler
Blackcap
Whitethroat
SedgeWarbler
Treecreeper
Wren
Starling
Blackbird
SongThrush
MistleThrush
robin
Stonechat
Wheatear
Dunnock
HouseSparrow
GreyWagtail
PiedWagtail
TreePipit
MeadowPipit
Chaffinch
Bullfinch
Greenfinch
Linnet
Lesserredpoll
Goldfinch
Siskin
yellowhammer
reedBunting
• The trend since the start of the survey, covering the
years 1994–2015, has been smoothed, and the end
years truncated. This trend is labelled as 1995–2014.
• LCL and UCL are the lower and upper 95% confidence
limits for the 1995–2014 trend.
• Red-listed and Amber-listed species from ‘Birds of
Conservation Concern 4’ are shown in the relevant
colour.
Sample
73
32
61
226
70
89
57
40
238
157
212
188
80
212
36
85
151
105
32
144
35
220
255
45
108
94
51
106
80
116
64
14–15
2
-14
23 *
-3
10
-30 *
3
2
-8
2
4
9
-5
4
-32
11
0
0
-41
-9
-30 *
1
7
44
17
65 *
1
36 *
30
-4
13
95–14
135 *
18
550 *
23 *
465 *
113 *
28
4
48 *
-23 *
40 *
17
14
27 *
8
-19
68 *
53 *
-18
-1
118 *
-14 *
9
49 *
-49 *
-26 *
48
177 *
58 *
42 *
37 *
LCL
UCL
57
251
-37
78
330
1,110
5
41
262
766
42
226
-27
93
-32
40
28
71
-39
-1
13
68
-1
50
-23
58
11
46
-32
65
-42
9
36
99
18
91
-44
19
-20
15
58
202
-26
-2
-4
21
0
121
-62
-35
-44
-4
-2
149
112
270
4
120
16
81
5
94
TREND GRAPHS
ONLINE:
www.bto.org/bbs/graphs
Population Trends 17
BBS index between 1994–2015 showing smoothed trend (dark green), its confidence interval (pale green) and annual index values (dots).
WINNING WARBLERS
Chiffchaff, Blackcap and Whitethroat
have all increased in Scotland long
term, although the reasons behind
these increases vary between species.
CHiffCHAff:AMyLEWiS,BLACKCAP:ADriANDANCy,WHiTETHrOAT:PAuLHiLLiON
Chiffchaff are found in the lowlands
and on Scottish islands. They have
increased in the UK by 96% between
1995 and 2014, but this figure is
overshadowed by the 550% increase
seen in Scotland during the same period.
Blackcap has also increased greatly,
by 465% between 1995 and 2014.
Both these partial migrants have
spread northwards, taking advantage
of milder winters. This change in
climate has led to change in migration
patterns, positively influenced
overwinter survival, and enabled them
to move into higher altitudes to breed
in the summer. Blackcap has also
adapted to take advantage of garden
feeding stations, which is thought to
increase survival.
Whitethroat has shown an increase
of 113% since 1994 in Scotland and
have increased in the UK as a whole
(33%), consequently moving from the
Amber to Green list of Conservation
Concern. These figures somewhat mask
the bigger picture: in the 1968/69
winter, populations crashed after severe
droughts on their wintering grounds
south of the Sahara. The BBS trend
therefore illustrates the recovery from
this crash but does not yet compensate
for the losses in the late 1960s.
WADERS
Declines in waders in Scotland
continue: Oystercatcher (33%),
Golden Plover (25%), Curlew
(57%) and Lapwing (57%) have all
undergone statistically significant
declines between 1995 and 2014.
The reasons behind the changes
in distribution and overall decline
of Oystercatcher are not fully
understood. Declines in abundance
have been recorded since the 1988–91
breeding atlas in the inland north-west,
along with a fall in tetrad occupancy in
eastern and southern Scotland. Could
factors affecting other wader species in
Scotland be influencing the long-term
trend for Oystercatcher too?
The core UK Golden Plover breeding
range is in Scotland, with the highest
densities being in the Outer Hebrides,
Shetland and the flows of Caithness
and Sutherland. Golden Plover,
Curlew and Lapwing have all been
impacted by changes to agriculture,
grazing pressures and increases in
generalist predators. For Golden Plover
and Curlew, afforestation and drying
soils – whether by artificial drainage
of wetlands and peat bogs, or due to
climate change – are also contributing.
The highest breeding concentrations
for Curlew are in eastern Scotland, the
Northern Isles and northern England.
Declines in the uplands are highest in
heather-dominated areas. In lowland
areas specifically, drainage of wetlands
and intensive managment of lowland
grasslands are playing a part.
Breeding Lapwing have disappeared
from most of the western mainland of
Scotland over the last 40 years.
‘ADD-ON’ SQUARES
Data from additional Scottish
Woodland squares were included in
trends for all species recorded. ‘Add-on’
squares were surveyed using the same
methodology as standard BBS squares,
and the difference in sampling was
accounted for in the trend calculations.
18 Population Trends
Re d s
increa t ar t
sed by
Wales –
population trends
41%
in Wale
s betwe
en
1995 a
nd 2014
Trends for 54 species are reported for Wales,
with long-term declines in Yellowhammer recorded
Fifty-four species have been recorded
on an average of at least 30 BBS
squares in Wales since the survey
began and can therefore have trends
calculated. Reed Bunting and Siskin
are currently at 29 squares on average
– increased coverage could see these
species reach the reporting threshold.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
Of the 28 statistically significant longterm (1995–2014) trends in Wales,
the largest increases were for Great
Spotted Woodpecker (171%) and
Blackcap (170%).
Species with the largest declines
included Starling (67%) and Curlew
(60%).
Counter to its long-term trend,
Starling saw the largest short-term
(2014–15) increase of 40%. The largest
short-term declines were in Wheatear
(26%) and, mirroring the UK shortterm decline, Whitethroat (24%).
In addition, breeding productivity falls
where invertebrate prey densities are
reduced by high grazing pressure, and
the loss and degradation of farmland
margins and hedgerows has reduced
nest-site availability.
YELLOWHAMMER DECLINES
Yellowhammer has declined by 57%
in Wales between 1995 and 2014,
highlighting that declines are more
than an arable farmland issue.
Agricultural specialisation into efficient
grass-based livestock rearing, resulting
in the loss of potentially seed-rich
arable and fodder crops that provided
critical winter seed sources, is thought
to be the driver behind the decline.
BBS index between 1994–2015 showing smoothed
trend (dark green), its confidence interval (pale green)
and annual index values (dots)
Table 7 Trends in Wales during 2014–15 and 1995–2014
Species
Mallard
Pheasant
(GreyHeron)
Buzzard
Curlew
feralPigeon
StockDove
Woodpigeon
CollaredDove
Cuckoo
Swift
GreenWoodpecker
GtSpottedWoodpecker
Magpie
Jay
Jackdaw
rook
CarrionCrow
raven
Goldcrest
BlueTit
GreatTit
CoalTit
Skylark
Swallow
HouseMartin
Long-tailedTit
Sample
71
99
44
148
35
36
32
197
76
60
66
46
86
169
78
146
81
213
96
86
186
179
78
107
181
90
63
14–15
21
1
57
-5
-22
-18
-32
9
5
1
3
30
1
-14 *
5
2
-10
-8
1
15
-8
-5
1
-4
18
50
40
95–14
-9
48 *
-5
-2
-60 *
40
103 *
30 *
24
-18
-52 *
-33 *
171 *
-17 *
46 *
34
-35
19
30
-33
17 *
41 *
-18
3
39 *
5
38 *
LCL
UCL
-51
67
8
100
-36
40
-20
25
-72
-39
-8
118
24
249
10
51
-18
66
-39
10
-66
-23
-52
-3
116
252
-28
-4
11
82
-7
129
-59
3
0
38
-15
115
-55
9
1
33
22
62
-38
15
-19
36
13
87
-25
58
0
108
Species
Chiffchaff
WillowWarbler
Blackcap
GardenWarbler
Whitethroat
Nuthatch
Treecreeper
Wren
Starling
Blackbird
SongThrush
MistleThrush
robin
redstart
Stonechat
Wheatear
Dunnock
HouseSparrow
PiedWagtail
TreePipit
MeadowPipit
Chaffinch
Bullfinch
Greenfinch
Linnet
Goldfinch
yellowhammer
Sample
148
166
133
59
87
76
42
207
81
207
175
103
202
65
38
57
161
131
122
35
92
207
66
113
95
137
34
14–15 95–14
0
65 *
0
-9
-11
170 *
0
-18
-24 * -14
-17
54 *
-9
18
-6
23 *
40 * -67 *
0
40 *
11
16 *
0
-6
13 *
1
-13
41 *
-6
93 *
-26 * -16
1
31 *
-11
87 *
-4
4
-20
-4
-1
5
-4
-5
-18
6
-14
-44 *
1
-16
15
79 *
-27
-57 *
LCL
UCL
42
106
-24
8
118
232
-44
15
-34
9
15
108
-19
76
8
37
-79
-55
30
51
2
33
-28
20
-8
13
11
78
15
238
-36
9
10
55
51
129
-17
27
-37
37
-15
35
-18
7
-16
35
-59
-23
-32
12
47
117
-75
-38
Population Trends 19
Collar
e
increa d Dove
sed by
Northern Ireland –
population trends
102%
in North
ern Irela
n
betwee
n 1995 d
and
2014
Northern Ireland trends for 35 species,
with Willow Warblers bucking the UK trend
Population trends for 35 species have been calculated
for Northern Ireland, having reached the reporting
threshold of 30 squares per year, on average, since the
survey began. Lesser Redpoll and Sedge Warbler sit
just below the reporting threshold.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
There are 16 statistically significant long-term (1995–
2014) trends; amongst which the largest increases were
for Great Tit (195%) and Hooded Crow (188%) and
the largest and only statistically significant decline was
for Skylark (50%). Short-term (2014–15), statistically
significant trends included an 82% increase in
Greenfinch and a 28% decline in Starling.
WILLOW WARBLER INCREASES
Changes in climatic conditions, distribution once on
wintering grounds and breeding habitat in Northern
Ireland compared to areas in Britain are thought to be
influencing regional population changes.
BBS trends show statistically significant long-term
declines in the UK (8%) and England (41%), but an
increase of 23% in Scotland and a far larger increase
of 73% in Northern Ireland where Willow Warbler is
expanding in range and exploiting more upland habitats,
possibly as climatic warming makes such habitats more
suitable as breeding sites.
•Tables 7 and 8 show trends expressed as the percentage change, and marked with
an asterisk (*) where the 95% confidence limits of the change do not overlap
zero (indicating that there has been a significant change).
• Trends for species in brackets are reported with caveats (see pg5).
• The sample is the mean number of squares per year on which the species was
recorded during 1994–2015.
• The trend since the start of the survey, covering the years 1994–2015, has been
smoothed, and the end years truncated. This trend is labelled as 1995–2014.
• LCL and UCL are the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for the 1995–2014
trend.
• Red-listed and Amber-listed species from ‘Birds of Conservation Concern 4’ are
shown in the relevant colour.
Table 8 Trends in Northern Ireland
during 2014–15 and 1995–2014
Species
Pheasant
Buzzard
Woodpigeon
CollaredDove
Magpie
Jackdaw
rook
HoodedCrow
Goldcrest
BlueTit
GreatTit
CoalTit
Skylark
Swallow
HouseMartin
Chiffchaff
WillowWarbler
Blackcap
Wren
Starling
Blackbird
SongThrush
MistleThrush
robin
Dunnock
HouseSparrow
PiedWagtail
MeadowPipit
Chaffinch
Bullfinch
Greenfinch
Linnet
Lesserredpoll
Goldfinch
reedBunting
Sample
41
31
83
33
82
75
72
80
44
76
72
63
31
83
43
34
78
38
90
78
85
76
58
87
69
54
45
62
89
32
47
35
29
50
32
14–15
-13
38
-1
3
-14
6
19
17
-11
26 *
12
8
10
6
42 *
24
-9
12
-7
-28 *
5
8
-7
1
7
17 *
-23
13
5
81
82 *
75
24
84
7
95–14
100 *
LCL
>10,000
notestimable
88 *
102 *
15
108 *
-10
188 *
34
11
195 *
63 *
-50 *
-2
109 *
21
73 *
>10,000
54 *
45 *
42 *
45 *
-5
13
79 *
57
60
14
55 *
33
-45
-9
38
748
-8
7
UCL
203
36
148
21
181
-14
59
40
174
-37
36
94
313
-24
65
-23
48
111
256
1
134
-61
-40
-29
45
29
257
-17
63
30
106
notestimable
15
107
9
117
3
73
6
90
-60
69
-11
35
1
134
-3
159
notestimable
-13
69
16
72
-29
67
-67
7
-49
35
notestimable
notestimable
-37
77
CHANNELiSLANDS
iSLEOfMAN
Twenty-two squares were covered on the Channel
Islands in 2015. These data feed into the UK trends. An
impressive 91 species were recorded, from singles of Beeeater, Short-toed Treecreeper and Turtle Dove through to
Blackbird as the most numerous species recorded.
As with the Channel Islands, data collected on the Isle of
Man feed into the UK trends. Thanks to the efforts of the
Manx Regional Representative and one other volunteer,
it was great to have three squares surveyed after sporadic
coverage in recent years from the Island.
20 Population Trends
St one
increa chat
sed by
4
6
737%
English regions –
population trends
t rends
c
a
lc
in Waleulated in
Englishs between
1
995 anRegions
d 2013
English regional trends for 79 species,
showing how trends vary across England
Population trends for 79 species have
been calculated for nine English
regions, in instances where the sample
size is adequate to report trends. The
threshold for reporting trends for
a region is 30 squares per year, on
average, since the survey began.
Here we look through the regional
trends and the largest statistically
significant long-term trends (1995–
2014). Variation between regions can
be great. For example, Chiffchaff has
increased in the South West by 35%
and in the East Midlands by 351%!
In contrast, Starling trends are more
consistent across the regions, with
declines from 50% in East of England
through to 71% in the South West.
NORTH WEST
Fifty-seven trends calculated, of which
29 were significant: 19 increases and
10 declines. Nuthatch increased by
363% and Swift declined by 52%.
NORTH EAST
WEST MIDLANDS
YORKSHIRE
SOUTH EAST
EAST MIDLANDS
SOUTH WEST
Thirty-five trends calculated, of which
16 were significant: 7 increases and
9 declines. Chiffchaff increased by
239% and Swift declined by 58%.
Fifty-five trends calculated, of which
25 were significant: 18 increases and 7
declines. Greylag Goose increased by
718% and Grey Partridge declined
by 70%.
Fifty-five trends calculated, of which
27 were significant: 17 increases and
10 declines. Chiffchaff increased by
351% and Cuckoo declined by 85%.
EAST OF ENGLAND
Sixty-seven trends calculated, of which
39 were significant: 22 increases and
17 declines. Green Woodpecker
increased by 137% and Turtle Dove
declined by 92%.
Fifty-two trends calculated, of which
33 were significant: 20 increases and
13 declines. Goldfinch increased by
204% and Cuckoo declined by 73%.
Sixty-eight trends calculated, of
which 47 were significant: 20
increases and 27 declines. Red Kite
increased by 8,613% and Turtle
Dove declined by 94%.
Sixty trends calculated, of which 29
were significant: 17 increases and
12 declines. Red-legged Partridge
increased by 138% and Cuckoo
declined by 77%.
LONDON
Twenty-seven trends calculated, of which
21 were significant: 14 increases and 7
declines. Goldfinch increased by 387%
and House Sparrow declined by 73%.
Table 9Counties in each region and squares covered in 2015
FIND OUT MORE...
Region
Counties
1
North West
Cheshire, Cumbria, Lancashire, Greater Manchester, Merseyside
291
2
North East
Cleveland, County Durham, Northumberland
117
3
Yorkshire & Humber East Yorkshire, North Lincolnshire, North Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire
287
4
East Midlands
Derbyshire, Northamptonshire, Leicestershire & Rutland, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire
296
5
East of England
Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Norfolk, Suffolk
369
6
West Midlands
Birmingham, Herefordshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Worcestershire
231
7
South East
Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex
640
8
South West
Avon, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, Somerset, Wiltshire
480
9
London
Greater London
106
TREND GRAPHS
ONLINE:
www.bto.org/bbs/graphs
Squares covered in 2015
English regions:
More detailed
information is
available on the BBS
webpages under
‘Latest Results’,
including short-term
trends (2014–15) and
trend graphs.
(www.bto.org/bbs)
• Table 10 shows the smoothed trend since the start of
limits of the change do not overlap zero (indicating that
the survey (in bold) and sample sizes (regular). The
there has been a significant change).
trend has been smoothed, and the end years truncated. • Trends for species in brackets are reported with caveats
• The sample is the mean number of squares per year on
(see pg5).
which the species was recorded during 1994–2015.
• Red-listed and Amber-listed species from ‘Birds of
• Trends are expressed as the percentage change, and are Conservation Concern 4’ are shown in the relevant
marked with an asterisk (*) where the 95% confidence colour.
Population Trends 21
Table 10 Trends in English Regions during 1995–2014
Species
MuteSwan
GreylagGoose
CanadaGoose
Shelduck
Mallard
TuftedDuck
red-leggedPartridge
redGrouse
GreyPartridge
Pheasant
(Cormorant)
(GreyHeron)
redKite
Sparrowhawk
Buzzard
Moorhen
Coot
Oystercatcher
Lapwing
Curlew
Snipe
feralPigeon
StockDove
Woodpigeon
CollaredDove
TurtleDove
Cuckoo
Swift
GreenWoodpecker
GtSpottedWoodpecker
Kestrel
ring-neckedParakeet
Magpie
Jay
Jackdaw
rook
CarrionCrow
raven
Goldcrest
BlueTit
GreatTit
CoalTit
MarshTit
Skylark
Swallow
HouseMartin
Long-tailedTit
Chiffchaff
WillowWarbler
Blackcap
GardenWarbler
LesserWhitethroat
Whitethroat
SedgeWarbler
reedWarbler
Nuthatch
Treecreeper
Wren
Starling
Blackbird
SongThrush
MistleThrush
robin
Wheatear
Dunnock
HouseSparrow
TreeSparrow
yellowWagtail
GreyWagtail
PiedWagtail
MeadowPipit
Chaffinch
Bullfinch
Greenfinch
Linnet
Goldfinch
yellowhammer
reedBunting
CornBunting
NorthWest
87 *
19
160
144
-28 *
80
*
*
*
yorkshire
718 *
125 *
70
124 *
-39
104
-26
-15
4
-28
-46
NorthEast
74 *
39 *
33
32
71
29
26
-70 *
65 *
-20
East
Eastof
West
Midlands
England
36
42
117 *
44
33 *
58
13
36
-4
191
Midlands
69 *
117
-17
178
22
36
-51 *
-12
-16
-43 *
42
274
48
82
36
32 106 *
103
20
105
51 -45 *
50
30 -34
15
146
37
-12
*
*
-31
143 *
76 *
23
76
58
219
134
-43 *
-52 *
34
110
112 *
-25
90
72
-8
39
70 *
-20
44 *
187
70
143
92
228
-10
34
4
-28 *
-9
61 65 *
48 -40 *
81 49 *
11
7
116 112 *
8
107
172 46 *
64
-9
34 *
32
45
206
192
72
-14
53 *
29
4
63
56 58 *
41 107 *
147
129
43
8
11
-10
48
41 274 *
-6
67
41 100 *
147 -29 *
157 89 *
66 -17
50 39 *
73 351 *
117 -56 *
87 106 *
-33
2
87 *
80
-19
10
10
12
338 *
2
209 *
-28
16
-8
-58 *
-59 *
-33
93 *
-38 *
39
42
*
17
218
176 -56 *
217 23
-6
167
122 -16
208 36 *
53
182 20
160 -26
31
-16
-1
11
-6
-28 *
-25
150 *
-29 *
22
131 10
-6
93
11
217
41
155 -28
95 -26
164 109 *
56 -47 *
65
*
32
41 *
363 *
*
206 *
2
8
17
-41
30
87 *
83
32 -21
46
50
70
75
88
*
*
*
*
-23
-41 *
124 -31 *
200 22 *
100
85
103 239 *
150 -30 *
61 *
117
30
28
51
-51
46
56
-18
31
-29
33
0
173
14
-18
12
77 13
58 -60 *
41 *
72
62 39 *
40 -45 *
70 40 *
22
-4
58
-9
43
224 *
32 >10,000
39 -25
46
108 -19
112
37
60 -39
52 -36
167 25
5
79
-85
-48
173
48 123
59 -12
43
84
48
55
81
-3
15
32 *
102
104
170
*
*
*
*
32 *
52 *
-3
44
48
52
42
-34 *
-18
141 *
-19
42
102
93
118
85
44
-29
-41
30
13
-32
-26
139
-10
79
32
152
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
9
74 *
-5
47
58 203 *
125 -19
77
39
32
74 -18
-29
-5
42
56
-92
50 -71
81 -28
45 137
61 73
63 -17
75 -47 *
141 63 *
27 *
320
209 -36 *
63
108 -73 *
151 -44 *
33
168
147 150 *
107 -28 *
27
56
35
115 132 *
27
56
84 *
233 49 *
30
121 138 *
97
61
30
-80 *
21 *
64
-19
8,613*
-20 *
1,050*
-24 *
32
31
386
48
122
62
67
157
143
64
40
-53 *
103
140
142 32 *
41 *
30
117 126 *
0
95
178 90 *
241
116
219
178
297
-9
-7
77 *
-12
5
-18
33
22
-1
-94
54 -67
76 -55
64 26
106 93
42 -34
713
161 10
-7
62
75
138
9
86
18
180
60 *
21 *
18 *
15
72
298
283
63
83 *
-9
14 *
62 *
44
179
174
49
154 -26 *
21
148
57 -40 *
76 26
95 112 *
92 -80 *
117 95 *
33 -37 *
33 12
133 12
-27
-9
112 *
273
225
99
149
203
115
237
59
72
246
45
40
30
-24
8
-36
-15
138
-49
138
-27
16 *
180
130 -50 *
2
187
133 -10
83 -57 *
175 19 *
294
230
312
233
133
292
15
-66
31
81
0
33
20 *
-35 *
268
196
-42 *
48
174
163
38
165
118
33
36
*
*
*
*
*
*
-9
94
41 -56 *
185 18 *
-9
48
136 -26 *
114 -15
77 *
130
133 -19 *
60 26
-32 *
43
84
181
116
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
175
132
182
152
88
179
19
-2
12
-11
-39
-30
14
-61
-30
47
-77
113
-37
-33
55
-6
-12
47
-6
2
-65
0
-12
-57
7
34 *
-6
165
142
2
-33 *
*
*
*
*
*
115
144
81
87
140
90
137
45
35 *
107
159 *
51
*
*
*
*
*
5
149
42
312 -27 *
27
63
250 -23 *
170 -33
208 204 *
216 -44 *
80
39
SouthWest
7
109 *
31
69
58
-21
50 >10,000
59 -16 *
-10
88 *
62 -26
49
73
190
110
98
171 15
120 -53
23
164
111 25
80 -39
12
144
47
11
124
2
95
14
39
-56
77
51
34
75
70
31
60
115
94
>10,000
42
SouthEast
-20
-42
178 -13
54 -36
141 -48
74 -39
126 54
104 -39
-31
86
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
108
198
481
293
46
164
169
306
303
134
30
411
230
365
247
464
35
48
152
-20
43
-23 *
72
58
57 *
-24
-13
271
32
81
-2
14
-5
48
223
66
-34 *
27 *
44 *
5
67
125
343
189
55 *
-4
81
52
-77
-62
3
134
-39
75
140 -56 *
128 49 *
160 59 *
77
58
31
37
*
*
*
*
>10,000
-8
6
41 *
-20
9
119
189 -14
-6
468
456 44 *
5
147
51
312 -26 *
318 44 *
145 -23 *
239 29
364 35 *
152 -57 *
382 134 *
98 -13
55 -17
294 30 *
34 -18
32
182 79 *
-5
91
8
458
330 -71 *
21 *
480
17
416
226 -48 *
13 *
464
414
300
London
18
7
-31
-7
199
1
48
469 -11 *
-8
131
371 -48 *
220 -24
319 93 *
246 -17 *
60 20
286 36 *
107 -13
268
215
37 *
339
69
127
327 18
316 112 *
100
218
293
147
143 84 *
286 147 *
153
270 160 *
63
40
205
32
40
80
39
81
80
75
32
32
45
84
49
335 32 *
192 -55 *
345 -29 *
286 -36 *
124 -57 *
331 78 *
75
79
81
50
34
78
26 *
-73 *
61
68
305
228
31
149
48
340 106 *
106
266 -12
177
258 387 *
162
33
56
61
48
22 Population Trends – Mammals
Rab
declin bit
ed by
Mammal monitoring
and population trends
59%
in Engla
nd b
1996 a etween
nd 2014
Mammal trends for nine mammal species – now including
trends for countries as well as for the UK as a whole
Coverage increased to 3,340 squares in
2015, up from 3,102 in the previous
year; observers on 90% took part,
either by counting live mammals,
recording signs and using local
knowledge, or submitting ‘nil returns’
where no mammals or evidence of
presence was found.
INCREASED REPORTING
This year trends have been calculated at a
country and English Region level, where
sample size allows, in addition to a UK
scale. This provides an insight into how
populations are changing in different
areas of the UK (Tables 12–17).
BROWN HARE
Figure 2 illustrates how change in
Brown Hare populations has varied
across the UK, with two English Regions
showing very different trends: an
increase of 54% in the East Midlands
and decline by 39% in the North West
between 1996 and 2014. Currently, the
reasons why the Brown Hare trends vary
so much in different parts of the country
are not well understood.
RABBIT
Declines in the Rabbit population
have been seen at all scales, with an
overall UK decline of 59% between
1996 and 2014. The Game & Wildlife
Conservation Trust’s National Gamebag
Census shows that, pre-BBS, Rabbit
populations were increasing – recovering
from myxomatosis. However, since
then, and throughout BBS monitoring,
population declines are maybe due to a
new viral haemorrhagic disease.
DEER
All four deer species for which we report
trends are increasing, and two have
shown a statistically significant increase.
The UK-wide 95% increase in Reeves’
Muntjac since the survey began is the
largest population change seen among
the mammal trends.
Rabbit populations show declines throughout the UK;
with a UK-wide decline of 59% between 1996 and 2014.
Squares
recorded
redSquirrel
29
GreySquirrel
1,086
CommonDormouse
1
BankVole
28
Short-tailedVole
31
WaterVole
9
WoodMouse
25
yellow-neckedMouse
2
HouseMouse
2
Commonrat
61
rabbit
1,889
BrownHare
969
Mountain/irishHare
61
Hedgehog
36
Mole
600
CommonShrew
43
PygmyShrew
1
WaterShrew
2
LesserWhite-toothedShrew
1
LesserHorseshoeBat
1
WhiskeredBat
1
Daubenton'sBat
1
NoctuleBat
1
CommonPipistrelle
1
PipistrelleBatsp
8
redfox
571
Badger
274
Otter
25
PineMarten
12
Stoat
48
Weasel
26
Polecat
1
ferret
1
AmericanMink
7
CommonSeal
2
GreySeal
8
WildBoar
5
reeves'Muntjac
182
redDeer
106
SikaDeer
23
fallowDeer
103
roeDeer
753
ChineseWaterDeer
10
feralGoat
7
ParkCattle
2
Species
Squares recorded: number of
squares on which the species was
recorded, including counts, field signs,
dead animals and local knowledge.
rABBiT:SArAHHArriS
Mammal data collected during BBS
visits allows mammal trends to be
calculated for nine of the UK’s easily
detectable and widespread mammal
species. This is an optional extra to the
core bird count visits made by BBS
volunteers.
Table 11 All mammal species
recorded in 2015
Population Trends – Mammals 23
Table 12 Mammal trends in uKduring 1996–2014
Species
BrownHare
Mountain/irishHare
rabbit
GreySquirrel
redfox
redDeer
roeDeer
fallowDeer
reeves'Muntjac
Sample 96–14 LCL
Scientific name
-16
Lepus europaeus
-5
696
-58
Lepus timidus
-32
50
Oryctolagus cuniculus 1,396
-59 * -66
-19
Sciurus carolinensis
-5
722
Vulpes vulpes
-34 * -44
285
-2
Cervus elaphus
18
63
Capreolus capreolus
53 * 31
403
-7
Dama dama
11
60
Muntiacus reevesi
95 * 25
92
UCL
7
21
-51
3
-23
48
79
38
212
Table 13 Mammal trends in England during 1996–2014
Sample 96–14 LCL
Scientific name
-12
Lepus europaeus
-1
596
Oryctolagus cuniculus 1,143
-43 * -49
-17
Sciurus carolinensis
-7
644
Vulpes vulpes
-37 * -48
230
Capreolus capreolus
57 * 34
312
-7
Dama dama
10
57
Muntiacus reevesi
95 * 23
92
Species
BrownHare
rabbit
GreySquirrel
redfox
roeDeer
fallowDeer
reeves'Muntjac
Figure 2 Brown Hare trends vary across the UK
UK / Country English Regions
UCL
12
-36
2
-23
97
34
207
Table 14 Mammal trends in Scotland during 1996–2014
Sample 96–14 LCL
Scientific name
-46
Lepus europaeus
-16
74
Oryctolagus cuniculus
-82 * -90
113
-15
Cervus elaphus
6
42
Capreolus capreolus
52 * 21
91
Percentagechange(1996–2014)
Species
BrownHare
rabbit
redDeer
roeDeer
UCL
20
-69
143
91
Table 15 Mammal trends in Wales during 1996–2014
Sample 96–14 LCL
Scientific name
-57
Oryctolagus cuniculus
-40
91
-35
Sciurus carolinensis
15
55
Species
rabbit
GreySquirrel
UCL
10
72
Table 16 Mammal trends in Northernireland
during 1996–2014
Sample 96–14 LCL
Scientific name
-62
Oryctolagus cuniculus
-35
43
Species
rabbit
UK
England
North West
East Midlands
West Midlands
Scotland
Yorkshire
East of England
South East
UCL
1
NEW – MAMMAL TREND
GRAPHS ONLINE:
South West
www.bto.org/bbs-mammals
Table 17 Mammal trends in Englishregions during 1996–2014
BrOWNHArE:NEiLCALBrADE
Species
BrownHare
rabbit
GreySquirrel
redfox
roeDeer
reeves'Muntjac
North West
-39 *
-51 *
68 *
North East
62
109 -70 *
58
Yorkshire
7
40 -18
-22
69
109
31
East
Midlands
54*
-82*
33
• Trends are expressed as the percentage change, and marked with an asterisk (*)
where the 95% confidence limits of the change do not overlap zero (indicating
that there has been a significant change).
• Trends for Red and Fallow Deer are reported with caveats. These are herding
species and trends should be interpreted with caution, the presence or absence
of a herd in a given BBS visit could influence the overall trend.
East of
England
9
88
107 -35 *
43 -15
-25
91
West
Midlands
144 -18
201 -43 *
96 -33 *
31
43
South East
40 -27 *
109 -57 *
74 -22 *
-33 *
52 *
40
South West
99 -3
284 -21
192 14
64 -15
112 40 *
31
68
175
95
47
96
London
27
49
• The sample is the mean number of squares per year on which the species was
recorded during 1995–2015.
• The trend since the start of the survey, covering the years 1995–2015, has been
smoothed, and the end years truncated (figure in bold).
• LCL and UCL are the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for the 1996–
2014 trend (displayed in Tables 12–16).
SPECIAL THANKS
We would like to thank all surveyors and ROs for making the BBS the success it is today. Space does not permit all
observers to be acknowledged individually here, but we would especially like to thank the ROs for their efforts.
BBSregionalOrganisersin2015:
ENGLAND
Avon
Bedfordshire
Berkshire
Birmingham & West Midlands
Buckinghamshire
Cambridgeshire
Cheshire (Mid)
Cheshire (North-East and South)
Cleveland
Cornwall
Cumbria
Derbyshire (North, South)
Devon
Dorset
Durham
Essex (North-East)
Essex (North-West)
Essex (South)
Gloucestershire
Hampshire
Herefordshire
Hertfordshire
Huntingdon & Peterborough
Isle of Wight
Isles of Scilly
Kent
Lancashire (East)
Lancashire (North-West)
Lancashire (South)
Leicestershire & Rutland
Lincolnshire (East)
Lincolnshire (North)
Lincolnshire (South)
Lincolnshire (West)
London (North)
London (South)
Manchester
Merseyside
Norfolk (North-East)
Norfolk (North-West)
Norfolk (South-East)
Norfolk (South-West)
Northamptonshire
Northumberland
Nottinghamshire
Oxfordshire (North)
Oxfordshire (South)
Shropshire
British Trust for Ornithology
The Nunnery
Thetford
Norfolk
IP24 2PU
01842 750050
bbs@bto.org
www.bto.org/bbs
Somerset
Staffordshire (North, South, West)
Suffolk
Surrey
Sussex
The Wirral
Warwickshire
Wiltshire (North, South)
Worcestershire
Yorkshire (Bradford)
Yorkshire (Central)
Yorkshire (East, Hull)
Yorkshire (Leeds & Wakefield)
Yorkshire (North-East)
Yorkshire (North-West)
Yorkshire (Richmond)
Yorkshire (South-East)
Yorkshire (South-West)
Yorkshire (York)
SCOTLAND
Aberdeen
Angus
Argyll (Mull, Coll, Tiree & Morven)
Argyll (mainland & Gigha) & Bute
Ayrshire
Benbecula & The Uists
Borders
Caithness
Central
Dumfries
Fife & Kinross
Inverness (East & Speyside, West)
Islay, Jura & Colonsay
Dave Stoddard
Judith Knight
Sarah & Ken White
Steve Davies
Phil Tizzard
Mark Welch (now Rob Pople)
Paul Miller
Hugh Pulsford
Vic Fairbrother
Peter Kent
Colin Gay with
Stephen Westerberg & Dave Piercy
Dave Budworth
Stella Beavan
Claire Young
David Sowerbutts
VACANT
Graham Smith
Terry Coster
Gordon Kirk
Glynne Evans
Chris Robinson
Chris Dee (now Martin Ketcher)
Mick Twinn
Jim Baldwin
Will Wagstaff
Geoff Orton
Tony Cooper
VACANT (now Jerry Martin)
VACANT
Dave Wright
Phil Espin
Chris Gunn
Hugh Dorrington
Peter Overton
Ian Woodward
Richard Arnold
Nick Hilton
Bob Harris
Chris Hudson
Bob Osborne
Rachel Warren
Vince Matthews
Barrie Galpin
Muriel Cadwallender
Lynda Milner
Frances Buckel
John Melling
Allan Dawes (now Jonathan
Groom)
Eve Tigwell
Gerald Gittens
Mick Wright
Penny Williams
Helen Crabtree
Paul Miller
Mark Smith
Bill Quantrill
Harry Green
Mike Denton
Mike Brown
Geoff Dobbs
Ken Graham (now VACANT)
Mick Carroll (now Graham Oliver)
Gerald Light
John Edwards (now VACANT)
Aidan Gill
Millie Mockford (now Grant Bigg)
Rob Chapman
Moray Souter
VACANT
Nigel Scriven (now Geoff Small)
Nigel Scriven with
James Cassels (Arran)
Brian Broadley
Yvonne Benting
Graham Pyatt (now VACANT)
Donald Omand
Neil Bielby
Edmund Fellowes (now Andy
Riches)
Norman Elkins
Hugh Insley
John Armitage (now David Wood)
Kincardine & Deeside
Kirkcudbright
Lanark, Renfrew & Dunbarton
Lewis & Harris
Lothian
Moray & Nairn
Orkney
Perthshire
Rhum, Eigg, Canna & Muck
Ross-shire
Shetland
Skye
Sutherland
Wigtown
WALES
BTO Wales Officer
Anglesey
Brecknock
Caernarfon
Cardigan
Carmarthen
Clwyd (East)
Clwyd (West)
Glamorgan (Mid, South)
Glamorgan (West)
Gwent
Merioneth
Montgomery
Pembrokeshire
Radnorshire
NORTHERN IRELAND
BTO Northern Ireland Officer
Antrim & Belfast
Armagh
Down
Fermanagh
Londonderry
Tyrone
CHANNEL ISLANDS
Channel Islands (excl. Jersey)
Jersey
ISLE OF MAN
Isle of Man
Graham Cooper
Andrew Bielinski
Andy Winnington
Chris Reynolds
Alan Heavisides
Melvin Morrison
Colin Corse
Mike Bell
Bob Swann
Simon Cohen
Dave Okill
Stephen Bentall (now Carol
Hawley)
Bob Swann
Geoff Sheppard
John Lloyd
Geoff Gibbs (now Ian Hawkins)
John Lloyd (now Andrew King)
Geoff Gibbs
Moira Convery
Terry Wells
Anne Brenchley
Mel ab Owain
Wayne Morris
Lyndon Jeffery
Jerry Lewis
Rob Morton
Jane Kelsall
Annie Haycock
Carlton Parry
Shane Wolsey
Ruth Wilson
Stephen Hewitt
Alastair McIlwain
Michael Stinson
John Clarke
Michael Stinson
Phil Alexander (now Chris Mourant)
Tony Paintin
Pat Cullen
We would be grateful for help organising the BBS in
regions currently without a Regional Organiser (marked
VACANT). If you live in one of these regions and would
be interested in taking on the role, please let us know.
Many thanks are due to the following ROs who retired
during the past year, having supported the BBS in their
regions: Phil Alexander, John Armitage, Stephen Bentall,
Allan Dawes, Chris Dee, John Edwards, Edmund Fellowes,
Ken Graham, John Lloyd, Millie Mockford, Stuart Piner,
Graham Pyatt, Mark Welch. Sadly, Mick Carroll passed away
in 2015 and we are grateful for all his assistance in Yorkshire
(North-East).
We would like to thank and welcome Grant Bigg, Jonathan
Groom, Ian Hawkins, Carol Hawley, Martin Ketcher,
Andrew King, Jerry Martin, Chris Mourant, Graham Oliver,
Rob Pople, Andy Riches, Geoff Small and David Wood who
have taken over as ROs during the past year.
Finally, we would like to thank all the landowners who
kindly allow volunteers to walk BBS transects on their land.
BTO Research Report 687
ISSN 1368-9932
ISBN 978-1-908581-69-3