Early Warning Risk Matrix
COUNTRY:
Republic of Barundu
YEAR:
2012
LONG-TERM
External Data (Annual)
Conflict Risk Area
2010
2011
Trend
Democracy Index (EIU)
4.71 / 10
4.71 / 10

Corruption Perception Index (TI)
127 / 178
143 / 183

2. Rule of Law
Criminal Justice, Rule of Law Index (WJP)
0.48 / 1.00
0.49 / 1.00

3. Security
Homicides per 100,000 (UNODC)
21.7 (2008)
-
1
4. Fundamental Rights
Civil Liberties, Freedom in the World (FH)
3/7
4/7

5. Civil Society and Media
World Press Freedom Index (RSF)
25.00
64.00

0.65 (2005)
0.49 (2010)

1. Legitimacy
6. Inter-communal Relations
Data
Indices of Social Development
2
Y
History of Internal Conflict
1200 USD
1300 USD

7. Economic Performance
GDP per capita, PPP (IMF)
8. Disaster Resilience
Natural / Man-made (e.g. nuclear) disaster within past 12 months
N
9. Social Welfare & Equality
Inequality-Adjusted HDI (UNDP)

10. Geopolitical Stability
History of External Conflict
0.286
0.296
N
Additional Long-term External Risk Data
0. General Risk Assessment
Failed State Index
21 / 60
21 / 60

Country Conflict Assessment
Problem Areas / Root Causes (selected from the CCA framework)
Under which root causes are (i) worsening trends
recorded and (ii) the highest number of structural
factors recorded?3
 Legitimacy
 Fundamental Rights
 Inter-communal Relations
Significant Structural Factors This Year
Based on the comments from the CCA, which longterm factors should be monitored this year?
 Run-up to 2013 Legislative Elections
 ICC indictment of politicians (including a
presidential candidate)
Additional EU Measurements
Current DEVCO Risk Management Framework for Budget Support Status
Substantial
MEDIUM-TERM
External Data
Previous Q
Current Q
Trend
Inflation (Quarterly)
19%
17%

Unemployment (Quarterly)
28%
24%

1 No trend data recorded / available
2 Inter-group cohesion dimension, Previous two recorded datasets
3 Access CCA for full list of structural factors. Click here for the database (Please note, this is not a live link, for demo
purposes only)
EU Measurements
EU Delegation Crisis Preparedness (MD VII)

SIAC Global Threat Review (Six-Monthly)

Recurring Identified Medium-term Triggers
(Determined from input from CSOs / Media Monitoring / Internal Analysis)
Potential Trigger
Useful Sources / Evidence
Source
Blocking of debate around restoring the
presidential term limits
Term Limits Debate Out of Order
AllAfrica.com
Police crackdown following opposition
'walk to work' protests against rising food
and fuel prices
“Walk-to-work” protesters are met with
bullets and tear gas
France24
Pressure on water supply due to
population growth and urbanisation
Water, Crisis and Climate Change. A
Policy Brief
IfP-EW Project
Discovery of oil in the North West region
Oil Discovery, a Boost for Jobs?
AllAfrica.com
EUD Risk Assessment
1) What are some potential conflict triggers that should be monitored in the next 3-6 months?
2) How do you assess the risk of an outbreak of violent conflict in the next 3-6 months from the medium-term triggers
identified in the mechanism? (High / Substantial / Moderate / Low)
Blocking of debate around restoring the presidential term limits
Police crackdown of opposition protest movement
Pressure on water supply due to population growth and urbanisation
Discovery of oil in the North West region
High
Substantial
Low
Moderate
3) Where do you see opportunities for EU action on the potential triggers (based on EU interests,
leverage, capacities and current engagement)
Recommendations (Select one or more actions from the options boxes)4
No Action
Detailed Options Paper
Public Diplomacy
Commission In-depth Analysis
Coordinate with Member States
 Review EU Delegation Security
Public Statement
 Other, please specify _______________________________________________________________
Overview of EU Actions
(Programmes / Missions / Dialogue etc. noted in CCA)
Ongoing and possible community actions
 Assessment of the Policy Framework on South-South Labour Migration
 Intra-ACP Academic Mobility Scheme (EACEA)
 Rural Development Programme (DEVCO – EuropeAid)
 ACP-EU Water Facility Seminar
 ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Program
 ACP-EU Cooperation Programme in Higher Education (DEVCO – EuropeAid)
4
Please note, this list of recommendations is not exhaustive, for demo purposes only)