JYD CHINA PP MARKET WEEKLY REPORT January 22, 2015 To request subscription, please email service@315.com.cn Market Overview PP price rebounded with thin trading at the beginning of this week because of low inventory in petrochemicals and reduced supply from coal chemical plants and began to go down with fluctuation at the end of the week. Price Trend China Propylene MonomerPrice, 2014-2015 PP Raf. CNY/mt North China: Hohhot Petrochemical T30S price CNY8,150/mt; Shenhua L5E89 price CNY8,050/mt; Shenhua Ningxia Coal 1102K price CNY8,100/mt; East China: Shandong Shenda PPH-T30 price CNY8,250/mt Ningxia Baofeng S1003 price CNY8,200/mt ; South China: Shenhua Ningxia Coal price CNY8,350/mt; Shenhua L5E89 price CNY8,400/mt. PP Inj. North China: Qingdao V30G price CNY8,500/mt; Daqing Refining & Chemical HP500P price CNY8,150/mt; East China: Shenhua Ningxia Coal 1100N price CNY8,550-8,600/ mt; Daqing Refining & Chemical 500P price CNY8,500/mt; South China: Guangzhou CJS price CNY9,600/mt. Shandong Huaxing EXW CFR China $/mt 17,000 1,700 14,000 1,400 11,000 1,100 8,000 800 5,000 500 21-Jan 21-Mar 21-May 21-Jul 21-Sep 21-Nov 21-Jan Copolymer Zhongsha 200K price CNY8,450/mt; Tianjin Lianhe EPS30R price CNY8,700/mt; East China: Shenhua Ningxia Coal 2500H price CNY8,700/mt; Dushanzi K8003 price CNY 8,900/mt; South China: Maoming EPS30R price CNY8,850/mt; Dushanzi K8003 price8,900/mt. China PP Price Change, 2015 Grade Homopolymer Raf. Homopolymer Inj. Copolymer CNY/mt Date North China East China South China Central China Jan 22nd 8,050-8,300 8,100-8,400 8,350-8,650 8,250-8,450 Jan 15th 8,000-8,100 8,150-8,500 8,300-8,700 8,200-8,400 Jan 22nd 8,150-8,800 8,500-8,900 9,000-9,400 N/A Jan 15th 8,200-9,100 8,350-8,700 9,000-9,400 N/A Jan 22nd 8,400-8,900 8,600-8,850 8,850-9,100 8,300-8,500 Jan 15th 8,300-9,300 8,500-8,600 8,950-9,150 8,350-8,500 Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd Feedstock Propylene Monomer Price, 2015 $/mt Jan 21st Jan 20th Jan 19th Jan 16th Jan 15th Average CFR China 802 785 N/A 772 772 780.6 FOB South Korea 742 725 N/A 712 712 720.6 Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd Exchange Rate: US$1=CNY6.2265 (Jan 22nd) P-1 JYD CHINA PP MARKET WEEKLY REPORT January 22, 2015 Crude Oil This week, global crude futures experienced an up-downup trend as both positive news and negative news surged into the market. Although OPEC raised global oil demand estimate in its monthly report, the growth of its supply forecast along with its December daily output of over 30 million bbl aggravated excessive supply and dragged down oil prices. Later on, IEA slashed its 2015 crude supply growth outlook, which spurred a price rocket. However, priced plunged again in line with Iraq crude output posting new high, Goldman Sachs lowering oil price forecast sharply and IMF slashing economic growth outlook. On January 22nd, Total released that it would trim productive expenditure for shale oil in US and other regions, sparking market expectation of easing the US crude oversupply; meanwhile, OPEC and IEA officials’ prediction that oil price would bounce up later this year also supported oil price to go upward. International Crude Futures Price, 2014-2015 $/bbl WTI Brent 120 100 80 60 40 21-Jan 21-Mar 21-May 21-Jul 21-Sep 21-Nov 21-Jan China Propylene Monomer Price, 2014-2015 CNY/mt Shandong Huaxing EXW CFR China $/mt Propylene 17,000 1,700 Despite weak demand before the holiday, propylene price in both domestic and foreign markets still continued to climb for tight supply. Overhaul in South Korea reduced overseas supply and unexpected PDH production halt in Shaoxing Sanyuan depressed the domestic supply. Purchase surge from Taiwan due to malfunction in CPC Corporation also contributed to price rise. Propylene market will see a lasting rebound against low inventory in refineries and adequate demand. 14,000 1,400 11,000 1,100 8,000 800 5,000 21-Jan 500 21-Apr 21-Jul 21-Oct 21-Jan Coal & Methanol Coal: Domestic power coal price was generally stable with slight decline and may continue to go down in a short period of time for lasting weak downstream demand and oversupply. Methanol: Under the support of high futures prices, domestic methanol quotation rebounded slightly with thin trading and may stay at the current level for a short term or decline in some regions. Propylene Monomer Price, 2015 $/mt Jan 21st Jan 20th Jan 19th Jan 16th Jan 15th Average CFR China 802 785 N/A 772 772 780.6 FOB South Korea 742 725 N/A 712 712 720.6 Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd Cost Analysis Petrochemical: Propylene price in foreign market continued to go up for tight supply and teapots with low inventory reduced sales to lift up prices. Under sales pressure, PP spot price began to decline after a slight fluctuation. Thus, profit margin of petrochemicals narrowed down compared to last month. MTO: With less support from spot market and thin trading at ports, methanol price went down and may remain low before the holiday as downstream purchase for inventory has drewn to an end. Spot PP price continued to decline resulting from inactive trading. With low cost, profit margin of MTO surged. CTO: Power coal price would remain stable in a short term amid economic downturn and low demand and may decline mildly later. Spot PP price has declined to its lowest and may continue to go down as plants are reluctant to make large purchase before the holiday. Without adequate cost support, profit margin of CTO units narrowed down. P-2 JYD CHINA PP MARKET WEEKLY REPORT January 22, 2015 Downstream Markets This week, BOPP market was generally upward. Prices of petrochemicals remained stable while PetroChina raised their listing prices. Film plants lifted up their quotations as well, with plants in North China as an exception. Quotation in East China went up to about CNY10,300/mt; many plants in South China raised their EXW price by about CNY100/mt with thin trading as downstream traders were still holding a wait-and-see sentiment. Downstream traders expected the price to go down further due to low prices in both crude oil and propylene monomer and they were reluctant to purchase. Next week, film price may fall back as some plants have already cut down their quotations and PetroChina’s branches in East China lowered their prices as well. Petrochemical Plants PP Production Cost, 2014-2015 Margin Zhenhai T30S Production cost CNY/mt 12,000 CNY/mt 1000 10,500 700 9,000 400 7,500 100 -200 6,000 22-Jan Forecast Against global and domestic economic downturn, many plants may choose to halt production for holiday ahead of the schedule and feedstock purchasing will cool down. International crude price is expected to dip further, and petrochemicals will give priority to sales of inventory. Next week, petrochemicals are expected to adopt listing price or fixed price reduction policy. Expecting lower prices, traders were reluctant to purchase to hold low inventory. Tight spot supply and petrochemicals’ sales suspension for settlement will ease the price falling trend. With cost and weak demand going against high price, PP price may decline by about CNY100/mt. Raf. and copolymer in East China may price respectively at CNY8,000-8,300/mt and CNY8,400-8,600/mt. 22-Mar 22-May 22-Jul 22-Sep 22-Nov 22-Jan MTO Units PP Production Cost, 2014-2015 Production cost Ningbo Heyuan T30S Margin CNY/mt 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 22-May Influential Factors Crude Oil: Crude price dip slows down in a short time due to reduced supply of shale oil and may continue to go down in a long term for oversupply. 22-Jul 22-Sep 22-Nov 22-Jan CTO Units PP Production Cost, 2014-2015 Supply & Demand: Long-term overhaul in Sichuan Ethylene will counter the oversupply in a short period of time amid a slack market. CNY/mt Margin Production cost 12,000 Market Sentiment: Traders choose to operate at low inventory, expecting a further price decline. Both traders and plants have no intention for large purchase. Foreign Market: Crude price may continue to go down. Weak domestic demand depresses the foreign market and most traders transact with low inventory. 10,000 5,300 8,000 4,800 6,000 4,300 22-Jan 22-Mar 22-May 3,800 22-Jul 22-Sep 22-Nov 22-Jan Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd. P-3 CNY/mt 5,800 4,000 Petrochemical Plants: Petrochemicals will focus on inventory reduction before the holiday. Price drop and listing price are still possible. Baotou L5E89 JYD CHINA PP MARKET WEEKLY REPORT January 22, 2015 Appendix Sinopec PP Price Summary, 2014-2015 Branch Producer Qilu Petrochemical Yansan Petrochemical North China Tianjin Lianhe Jinan Refinery Qingdao Petrochemical Shanghai Petrochemical East China Yangzi Petrochemical Zhenhai Refinery Jiujiang Petrochemical Guangzhou Petrochemical South China Maoming Petrochemical Hainan Refinery Zhenjiang Dongxing Fujia Refining & Chemical Wuhan Phenix Central China Hunanchangsheng Jingmen Petrochemical Zhongyuan Ethylene Shanghai Secco Others Yan'an Refnery Shaoxing Sanyuan Ningpo Heyuan CNY/mt Product No. Grade Jan 21st Jan 16th Remarks T30S T36F S1003 B8101 K8303 B4808 T30S EPS30R T30S Z30S T30S T300 M800E F280SO F800E M180R F401 S1004 J340 K8003 T30S F280Z T30S T36F F401 J641 CJS700 CS820 T30S EPS30R EPC30R-H EPT30R T30S T30S T30S 1080K T30S T36F T30S V30G T38F T30S T36F T30S S1003 S2040 K8003 K4912 K7926 T30S T30S T30S Raf Film Raf Pipe Copolymer Infusion Bottle Raf Copolymer Raf Fiber Raf Raf Transparent Film CPP Copolymer Raf Raf Copolymer Copolymer Raf Film Raf Film Raf Copolymer Inj Fiber Raf Copolymer Copolymer Copolymer Raf Raf Raf Raf Raf Film Raf Inj Film Raf Film Raf Raf Fiber Copolymer Transparent Compolymer Raf Raf Raf 8,550 8,500 8,550 9,800 8,800 9,050 8,450 8,500 8,350 8,700 8,350 8,700 9,300 8,700 9,050 8,800 8,700 8,600 8,800 8,800 8,700 8,600 8,550 8,550 8,800 9,450 9,600 9,500 9,000 9,000 9,600 9,000 8,700 8,700 8,700 8,650 8,400 8,450 8,400 8,450 8,450 8,400 8,450 8,350 8,600 8,900 8,900 9,300 8,900 8,100 8,550 8,550 8,300 8,350 8,200 9,800 8,800 8,800 8,200 8,300 8,100 8,550 8,100 8,700 9,250 8,700 9,000 8,800 8,700 8,600 8,800 8,800 8,700 8,600 8,550 8,550 8,800 9,450 9,600 9,500 9,000 9,000 9,300 9,000 8,700 8,700 8,700 8,650 8,250 8,500 8,250 8,350 8,500 8,250 8,500 8,200 8,500 8,900 8,900 9,300 8,900 8,400 8,550 8,550 Listing price Listing price Listing price Fixed price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Fixed price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Listing price Fixed price Fixed price Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd. P-4 JYD CHINA PP MARKET WEEKLY REPORT January 22, 2015 PetroChina PP Price Summary, 2015 Branch South China Producer Product No. Grade Jan 21th Jan 16th Daqing Petrochemical T30S Raf 8,600 8,400 Dushanzi Petrochemical K8003 Copolymer 9,050 8,900 Lanzhou Petrochemical T30S Raf 8,350 8,100 Ningxia Petrochemical T30S Raf 8,250 8,100 S1003 Raf 8,350 8,100 K8003 Copolymer 8,650 8,550 EPS30R Copolymer 8,750 8,650 T30S Raf 8,400 8,100 T36F Film 8,500 8,300 S1003 Raf 8,400 8,100 K8003 Copolymer 8,600 8,300 EPS30R Copolymer 8,600 8,300 PA14D Pipe 9,700 9,700 PPB4228 Pipe 9,300 9,300 Z69S-1 Fiber 8,650 8,550 T30S Raf 8,850 8,800 T36F Film 8,500 8,500 S1003 Raf 8,550 8,500 K8003 Copolymer 8,850 8,750 EPS30R Copolymer 8,850 8,750 T30S Raf 8,400 8,200 T36F Film 8,400 8,200 T30S Raf 8,400 8,200 PA14D Pipe 9,500 9,500 4228 Pipe 9,100 9,100 T30S Raf 8,400 8,200 T38FE Film 8,500 8,300 Lanzhou Petrochemical T30S Raf 8,350 8,200 Ningxia Petrochemical T30S Raf 8,300 8,150 K8003 Copolymer 8,650 8,400 EPS30R Copolymer 8,650 8,400 Southwest China Dushanzi Petrochemical Daqing Petrochemical North China Dushanzi Petrochemical Daqing Refining & Chemical Dalian First Organic Daqing Petrochemical East China Dushanzi Petrochemical Daqing Petrochemical Northeast China Daqing Refining & Chemical Fushun Petrochemical Northwest China CNY/mt Dushanzi Petrochemical Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd. JYD China PP Market Weekly Report Director Yang Li yangli@315.com.cn Editorial director Wang Zhenxian wangzhenxian@315.com.cn Chief Editor Li Li lili@315.com Amanda Zhao +86-10-84428984 zhaolei@315.com.cn Editor Melinda Zhang +86-10-84428585 zhangcuiping@315.com.cn Li Na lina@315.com.cn Sun Chengcheng sunchengcheng@315.com.cn Fuxi fuxi@315.com.cn JYD Information Co., Ltd is recognized as the leading information provider in China. We dedicate to provide transparent, high-value, authoritative market intelligence and professional analysis on commodity market. Our expertise covers chemical, oil, gas, coal, rubber, fertilizer and metal industry, etc. China PP Market Weekly Report is published by JYD Information Co., Ltd. every week on China PP import & export statistics and shipment, production, transportation, inventory, price index and forecast, providing full-scale & concise insight into China PP market. 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P-5 JYD CHINA PP MARKET WEEKLY REPORT January 22, 2015 PP Units Operation Status, 2014-2015 Region North China Northeast China East China South China Central China '000mt/yr Company name Capacity Affiliated to Operation status Yanshan Petrochemical 440 Sinopec Line 1 produce C5908; line 2 produces 4220; line 3 produces K8303 Tianjin Lianhe 70 Sinopec Produce T30S Tianjin Zhongsha 450 Sinopec Produce EP200K Dagang Petrochemical 100 PetroChina Production halt North China Petrochemical 100 PetroChina Production halt Qilu Petrochemical 70 Sinopec Produce EPS30RA Ji’nan Refinery 120 Sinopec Produce Y24 Qingdao Petrochemical 200 Sinopec Produce T03 Shijiazhuang Refinery 200 Sinopec Produce T03 Shandong Yuhuang 100 Teapot Production halt Shandong Shenda 200 Lianhong Group Produce PPH-T30 Hebei Haiwei 300 Teapot Produce T30S Daqing Refining & Chemical 600 PetroChina Old unit produces PA14D; new unit produce HP500P Daqing Petrochemical 100 PetroChina Produce T30S Fushun Petrochemical 390 PetroChina Old unit produces T30S, new unit produces L5D98 Dalian First Organic 270 PetroChina New unit produces T36F; old unit produces H39S-2 Jinxi Petrochemical 150 PetroChina Production halt Liaotong Chemical 310 Huajin Group Old unit under production halt; new unit produces SP179 WEPEC Dalian 150 JV Produce T30S Zhanhai Refining & hemical 500 Sinopec Unit 1PP produces M60T; Unit 2PP produces Z30S Yangzi Petrochemical 340 Sinopec Line A produce F401, Line B produce J340; 2PP produce PPB-M30-VH Shanghai Petrochemical 400 Sinopec Line 1 produce F280SO; line 2 produce F800E; line 3 produce M300RH Jiujiang Petrochemical 100 Sinopec Produce T30S Fund Energy 400 Ningbo Heyuan Produce T30S Xuzhou Haitian 200 Haitian Group Produce HP550J Formosa Ningbo 450 Formosa Group Main line produces 1120; minor line produces 1080 Shaoxing Sanyuan 500 Zhejiang Fuling Old unit produces Y26SY, Sanjin produces F280F Maoming Petrochemical 670 Sinopec Line 1 produce EPC30R-H; line 2 produce HT9025NX; Guangzhou Petrochemical 200 Sinopec Line 1 produce PP power, line 2 produce CJS700 Fujian Lianhe 670 Sinopec Line 1 produces 1100N; line 2 produces 1080K; old unit produces T30S Hainan Refinery 200 Sinopec Produce V30G Zhanjiang Dongxing 140 Sinopec Produce V30G Sinochem Quanzhou 200 Sinochem Production halt Qinzhou Petrochemical 200 PetroChina Produce L5E89 Beihai Refining & Chemical 200 Sinopec Produce Z30S Zhongyuan Ethylene 160 Sinopec Old unit produces M02; new unit produces PPH-T03 Luoyang Petrochemical 220 Sinopec Old unit under production halt; new unit produce F03G PetroChina Under 40 days’ overhaul since Dec 31st, 2014 Sichuan Petrochemical Wuhan Petrochemical 120 Sinopec Produce PPH-T03 Wuhan Ethylene 400 Sinopec Line JPP produce K7227H; Line STTP (200,000mt) produce V30G Jingmen Petrochemical 120 Sinopec Produce PPH-T03 Hunan Changling 140 Sinopec Produce Z30S (to be continued on page 7) P-6 JYD CHINA PP MARKET WEEKLY REPORT January 22, 2015 (from page 6) PP Units Operation Status, 2014-2015 Region Northwest China Company name Capacity '000mt/yr Affiliated to Operation status Dushanzi Petrochemical 690 PetroChina Line 1 produce EPS30R; line 2 produce T30S; line 34 produce 0640P Lanzhou Petrochemical 340 New unit produce T30S, old units under long-term production halt Yan’an Refinery 300 Shenhua Ningxia Coal 1,000 PetroChina Yanchang Petroleum Shenhua Group Hohhot 150 PetroChina Produce T30S Ningxia Petrochemical 100 PetroChina Produce T30S Qingyang Petrochemical 100 PetroChina Production halt Shenhua CTO 300 Shenhua Group Produce L5E89 Datang Duolun 460 Datang Production Halt China Coal Shaanxi Yulin 300 China Coal Produce L5E89 Yanchang China Coal Yulin 600 Yanchang Petroleum Line 1 produce S1003, line PP2 (300,00mt) under production halt Ningxia Baofeng 300 Teapot Produce S1003 Pucheng Clean Energy 400 Teapot Will produce HP550J New unit and old unit produce T30S Line 1 and line 2 produce raf; line 3 produce copoly, line 4 produce inj Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd. China PP Units Production Halt, 2014-2015 Company Datang Duolun ‘000mt/yr Capacity Situation Halt Production on To Restart on 230 Under maintenance Mar 8th, 2014 Pending 230 Under maintenance Aug 25th, 2014 Pending Maoming Petrochemical 200 Under maintenance Jan 6th Jan 21st Sinochem Quanzhou 200 Under maintenance Jan 20th Pending Sichuan Ethylene 450 Plan for production halt Dec 30th, 2014 Early Feb Qingdao Petrochemcal 200 Overhaul plan Early Jun Late Jul Yanchang China Coal Yulin 300 Under maintenance Oct 21st, 2014 Pending Shenhua Ningxia Coal 200 Production halt for feedstock Jan 20th Jan 22nd Xuzhou Haitian 200 Production halt for feedstock Early Jul Late Aug Liaotong Chemical 60 Emission reduction Oct 29th, 2014 Pending Yanshan Petrochemical 120 Production halt for feedstock Jan 9th Jan 16th Guangzhou Petrochemical 140 Under maintenance Jan 13th Jan 22nd Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd. News & Commentary PP price decline is just around the corner downstream operating rate had no big change, but operating rate of raf. showed a downward tendency under great inventory pressure. As the Spring Festival is approaching, most plants choose to produce in part-time to finish their orders. Downstream operating rate will decrease in late January. Traders will begin to purchase after the last week rebound, instead of high price strategy, sales promotion by discounts will be a good choice to reduce inventory. According to JYD, this week, PP price may decline and PP raf. might probably reach a new record low. Some traders and downstream plants intend to purchase for inventory at low price before the holiday, which will bring another round of rebound at the end of January and the beginning of February. PP output in northern China in early January, 2015 was about 146,400mt, down 8,600mt from the previous month. January witnesses a slight growth in raf., rapid growth in dystectic copolymer and sharp decline in eutectic copolymer. Output of both non-woven fabrics and fibers went down due to the warm winter. PP price ceased to rebound late December, 2014 and began to decline after a short-term fluctuation before the New Years’ holiday, reaching a record low in January, 2015 for weak downstream demand. In middle January, as raf. price fell to as low as CNY7,900-8,000, some traders took the chance to purchase, spurring another round of rebound. According to JYD, in the first half of January, general P-7 JYD CHINA PP MARKET WEEKLY REPORT January 22, 2015 Oil dips amid weak economic growth Shanxi suspends levy of two coal funds On January 20th, international crude oil price kept downward under pressure amid Chinese economy growth slowing and on December Iraq crude daily output reaching another record. NYMEX crude March contract settled at $47.79/bbl. Brent crude March contract fell $1.33/bbl to $48.84/bbl with 2.65% decline. According to data compiled by China Statistics on late January 20th, the growth rate of Chinese economy was 7.4% in 2014, which was beyond expectations, the weakest annual expansion in 24 years. Meanwhile, China Prime Minister Li Keqiang said, Chinese economy was under great downward pressure facing with a lot of difficulties on political and economic reforms, as well as falling real estate market and weak demand, which mean that bulk commodity will keep downward in 2015 after sharply fall in 2014. Additionally, IMF cut global outlook. Olivier Blanchard from IMF said the new factors supporting economy, such as sliding crude price, weak euro and Japanese yen, are unlikely to offset the influence exerting by economy crisis and potential slowing growth in many countries. Therefore, IMF and UBS cut Chinese economy growth to 6.8%, of which the former value was 7.1%, as Chinese government will restrict stimulus policies in order to curb credit and investment risk. Iraq minister of energy Adel Abdel Mehdi said, crude oil output was 4million bbls daily in December, the highest record. Furthermore, oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said, Iran and other OPEC members didn’t reach an agreement on what to do to prevent falling oil price, and Iran had no intension to hold an emergency meeting to discuss oil price. Coal mining companies in northern China’s Shanxi province would be exempted from the levy of two coal funds this year, partly easing a potential cost increase under the new price-based resource tax, sources said. The two funds-the environment recovery fund of 10 yuan/ t and mine transformation fund of 5 yuan/t – were first collected in October 2007 and have been lifted since August 1, 2013, part of the measures the provincial government adopted to help struggling miners out of the market slackness. Over the past two years, the Shanxi government has rolled out a series of measures to support local miners. Besides the suspended levy of the two funds, it also eliminated quite a number of illegal local government charges that have existed for years. On July 1 2014, Shanxi eliminated the coal inspection management fee and lowered the quality inspection fee. The province lopped 3 yuan/t off the coal sustainable development fund, reducing the levy on coking coal to 20 yuan/t at the most and thermal coal to 15 yuan/t. Shanxi removed road restrictions and relevant fees on coal outbound shipment on December1, 2014. On January 1, 2015, it scrapped the service charges levied on the five major coal groups. China’s domestic coal market has been declining since 2012. The Fenwei/Platts CCI1 Index for domestic 5,500 Kcal NAR coal traded at Qinhuangdao port was assessed at 496 yuan/t on January 22, inclusive of VAT, FOB basis, a slump of 74 yuan/t from a year ago. P-8