Risk and poverty in a changing climate
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Fast Facts
Note: Results and figures provided here derive from modelling of hazard, exposure and risk. These
estimates are not based on past disaster outcomes.
1. Cyclones
2. Floods
„„Bangladesh faces the highest absolute risk
„„Mortality from flood events is closely
and comes second in relative terms. Other
associated to the size and growth rate of
countries with high absolute risk include
exposed rural populations. It is heavily
India, Philippines, Myanmar, Madagascar
concentrated in Asia, especially in India,
and China. Small Islands Developing States
Bangladesh and China. These countries
(SIDS) such as Haiti, Fiji and Vanuatu have a
account for 75% of the world’s mortality risk
high relative risk , but because of their small
1
population, a relatively low absolute mortality
risk.
„„Geographically, tropical cyclone mortality risk
for floods.
„„Relative to tropical cyclones, flood damages
are less concentrated across countries. Highincome countries (especially the United States
is highly concentrated. For example, more than
and Germany) account for the largest share
75% of the expected mortality is concentrated
of average annual modelled damages. China,
in Bangladesh and 10.8% in India.
Indonesia and Thailand together account for
„„There are significant differences in risk between
25%. By far the largest damages in relation
different groups of countries. Relative mortality
to the size of economies occur in South Asia,
risk is approximately 200 times higher in
followed by sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia.
low-income countries than in Organization
„„The ratio of losses to gross domestic product
for Economic Cooperation and Development
(GDP) exposure in high-income countries is far
(OECD) countries and approximately 30 times
higher than in Latin America and the Caribbean
greater in low human development countries
or South Asia. This probably indicates the
than in high human development countries.
differential impact of flooding on primary
„„Each year approximately 78 million people
sector activities, such as raising livestock and
worldwide are exposed to tropical cyclone
other forms of agriculture and fishing, in the
wind hazard and a further 1.6 million to related
latter two regions, compared to the impact
storm surge. Asian countries have the largest
on industry and services in the high-income
absolute population exposed in both categories
countries.
while most SIDS have the highest proportion
„„The top 10 most exposed countries – in
of their population exposed. SIDS have a far
absolute and relative terms – are in South
higher relative exposure to highly destructive
and South-East Asia, which are home to a
Category 3 and 4 storms than larger countries,
number of heavily populated river deltas and
given the exposure of most of their territory.
watersheds. GDP exposure is also heavily
concentrated in Asia. However, developed
also be highest even after the meteorological
countries, such as the United States of
drought event has ended, for instance when
America, Germany, Japan and France also
people have exhausted their food supplies long
have high absolute GDP exposure, while
African countries, such as Benin, Sudan and
Chad have high relative GDP exposure.
„„In the case of economic risk, smaller, more
before the next harvest.
„„Relative to their population and cultivated area,
sub-Saharan African countries have the most
people and crops exposed to drought.
concentrated floods appear to cause relatively
greater economic damages than floods
covering a larger area.
5. Earthquake
„„China, India and Indonesia are the countries
3. Landslides
with the highest absolute mortality risk, while
some smaller countries, such as El Salvador
„„Compared to other hazards, global landslide
and Guatemala have very high relative risk.
mortality risk is relatively low. The predicted
Some countries, such as the Democratic
mortality risk even in very large countries
Republic of Congo, that have not experienced
such as India or China is less than 100 deaths
recent major earthquake disasters have high
per year. Absolute mortality risk is highest in
levels of both absolute and relative mortality
countries such as Ethiopia, Indonesia and
India. Relative mortality risk is highest in small
risk.
„„Altogether, 97% of mortality risk is concentrated
islands, notably in Comoros. Approximately
in low- and lower middle-income countries
55% of mortality risk is concentrated in
(11.7% and 85.3% respectively). The upper
10 countries, which also account for 80% of
middle and high-income countries concentrate
exposure.
2.6% of the risk (1.7% and 0.9% respectively).
„„Some 2.2 million people annually are exposed
„„Mortality risk is highly concentrated for seismic
worldwide to landslides. In absolute terms,
risk. It is estimated that 86% of mortality risk
exposure is very high in a number of large
is attributable to disasters with more than
Asian countries, especially,India, Indonesia and
10,000 fatalities. This is consistent with the
China. Relative exposure is highest in small
observed losses. Of the 250,000 deaths from
countries with steep terrain including a number
earthquakes over the last 10 years 2, about
of small island nations. The relative importance
92% resulted from five mega-disasters 3.
of the triggering mechanism varies widely
among countries.
4. Drought
„„Drought differs from other hazard types in
the way losses are incurred. Few droughts
lead directly to mortality. Those that do have
generally occurred during a political crisis
or civil conflict where aid could not reach
the affected population. In these cases the
mortality should more properly be attributed to
the conflict than to the drought. Impacts might
1 Relative risk refers to the number of people killed as compared to
total population, or economic loss as a share of national GDP.
2 As reported by CRED/EMDAT for earthquakes between 1975 and
2008.
3 Izmit (Turkey, 1999, 17,000 killed); Bhuj (Gujarat, India, 2001,
20,000 deaths); Bam (Iran, 2003, 26,800 deaths); Jammu/Kashmir
(Pakistan/India, 2005, 74,000 killed) and Sishuan (China, 2008,
87,900 deaths).
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