Outlook on Renewable
Energy
2016 NASEO Energy Policy Outlook Conference
11 February, 2016
The Fairmont, Washington, DC
Lola Infante
Director Generation Fuels and Market Analysis
The Edison Electric Institute (EEI) is the association
that represents all U.S. investor-owned electric companies.
Our members provide electricity for 220 million Americans,
operate in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and
directly employ more than 500,000 workers.
With $100 billion in annual capital expenditures, the electric
power industry is responsible for millions of additional jobs.
Reliable, affordable, and sustainable electricity powers the
economy and enhances the lives of all Americans.
EEI has 70 international electric companies as Affiliate
Members, and 270 industry suppliers and related
organizations as Associate Members.
Organized in 1933, EEI provides public policy leadership,
strategic business intelligence, and essential conferences
and forums.
For more information, visit our Web site at www.eei.org.
Overview
Drivers of renewable energy deployment
The critical role of IOUs
Renewable energy trends and evolution
New technologies, new challenges
3
A Century of Innovation
September 1882: Edison used a steam engine to drive his
dynamo to generate direct current electric power for a central
power generating station on Pearl Street in New York City. It
had 85 customers and 400 lamps.
January 2013: GE unveiled a new wind turbine design, billed as “the
world’s most efficient high output brilliant wind turbine”. The turbine
features an integrated energy storage system. It comes with a datadriven system designed to boost efficiency and improve power output
and is the first to use the Industrial Internet to help manage the
variability of wind providing smooth predictable power.
5
Industry Capital Expenditures
($ Billions)
108.6
110
103.3
100
101.2
95.8
98.1
90
90.3
80
82.8
70
74.1
60
77.7
90.6
92.2
90.3
78.6
74.3
59.9
50
40
48.4
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Actuals
Projections (July 2014)
Notes:
Total company spending of U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities, consolidated at the parent or appropriate holding company.
Projections based on publicly available information and extrapolated for companies reporting fewer than three projected years
(11% and 12% of industry for 2016 and 2017).
6
Source: EEI Finance Department, company reports, SNL Financial (September 2015).
Projections (Sept. 2015)
Transformation Drivers
Environmental
regulations
Low natural gas
prices
Declining
technology costs
Diversification
Public policies
Financial incentives
Customer
demand
New
technologies,
models and uses
7
Our National Fuel Mix Is Changing
2005 National Fuel Mix
2015 National Fuel Mix
(estimate)
Source: Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
8
The Use of Renewable Energy
Is Growing Nationwide
Source: Velocity Suite, ABB Enterprise Software; GTM/SEIA Solar Market Insight
Solar includes PV and CS
9
Renewables Deployment
Installed non-hydro renewable capacity
10
Source: Velocity Suite, ABB Enterprise Software; June 17, 2014. Includes plants operating and under construction.
Utilities: Partners of Change
Financing renewables
Integration of variable renewable resources
Promotion of new technologies
Maintaining reliability and affordability
11
Leading the Growth of Solar Power
Solar Energy is Growing Everywhere
Source: Velocity Suite, ABB Enterprise Software; GTM/SEIA Solar Market Insight 12
e = Estimated. Solar includes PV and CSP
Large-Scale Utility Solar Projects Amount to
About 60 Percent of All Installed Solar
Capacity
Utilities Lead the Way
On Solar Power
13
New Rate Design, Compensation
and Incentive Mechanisms
Rooftop Solar Power Is the Most Expensive
Resource
Current Rate Designs Work Poorly for
Distributed Generation
Rooftop Solar Provides the Same Benefits Than
Central Station Solar
Under NEM, Distributed Generators Do Not Pay
Their Full Share of Grid Costs
14
Solar Compared
15
Community Solar
Community solar is a voluntary, solar ownership alternative for
groups of participants accessible to all.
Programs are active in 25 States
State Shading:
Community Solar
Legislation Enacted
Symbols:
Utility-Administered
Third-party Administered+
Source: SEPA
16
Energy Storage
Energy storage can be deployed in all parts of the grid,
has applications in all parts of the value chain.
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
End User
C&I
Residential
Front of the Meter (FTM)
Source: Navigant
FERC Regulated Matters
Source: Adapted from DOE/EPRI Handbook
State Regulated T&D
End user
17
Behind the Meter (BTM)
Partnering with technology companies
Investing in grid transformation
Connecting with customers
Providing safe, reliable, affordable and clean
electricity for all customers
QUESTIONS!
Lola Infante
linfante@eei.org
(202) 508 5133