A publication of the Greater Houston Partnership
Volume 25 Number 9 — September 2016
Millennials Take the Lead — Millennials came of age this year. The youngest will vote in
their first presidential election, the oldest will mark a dozen or more years in the workforce.
In Houston, Millennials now outnumber Baby Boomers; Generation X and the Greatest Generation. Only Generation Next outnumbers Millennials, which makes sense considering Generation Next is composed of their children and the children of GenXers.
POPULATION ESTIMATES – METRO HOUSTON – ’14
Houston’s Millennial population
Generation
Year of Birth
Current Ages
Population
will continue to grow. For decGeneration Next
’99 –’16
0-17
1,774,900
ades, the region has attracted col- Millennials
’82 – ’98
18-34
1,615,100
lege grads and young adults seek- Generation X
’67 – ’81
35-49
1,374,000
ing to launch careers or start a Boomers
’46 – ’66
50-70
1,446,400
new business, though the pace of Greatest Generation
Prior to ’45
70+
376,900
Source:
U.S.
Census
Bureau,
2014
American
Community
Survey
1-Year
PUMS
inmigration may slow with the
weak economy. And young immigrants will continue to move here from abroad, lured by opportunities not available in their
home countries. Millennials and GenXers will have more babies; Generation Next will continue to grow. But Houston’s Boomer population will shrink, the flow of older migrants into
the region not enough to offset the losses due to death or the outmigration to communities
favored by retirees, such as Kerrville, Wimberley, and Georgetown.
Because they constitute the second largest share of Houston’s population, Millennials have an
outsized influence on Houston’s economy, politics and cultural scene, just as the Baby Boomers did 30 years ago. But the two generaEach Generation's Share of
tions followed different paths before asMetro Houston Population
suming the role. Boomers came of age with
the Vietnam War, the scandal of WaGeneration X
tergate, and the success of the Apollo pro20.9%
Generation
gram. Millennials came of age with the
Next
26.9%
9/11 attacks, the devastation of the Great
Greatest
Recession, and the birth of the Internet.
Generation
5.7%
The fight for civil and women’s rights
dominated Boomers’ early adulthood.
Global climate change and LGBT issues
now hold Millennials’ attention. When
Boomers
Millennials
Boomers entered the workforce, the U.S.
22.0%
24.5%
economy grew four to six percent a year.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
September 2016
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
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HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
Today, the nation struggles to grow at two percent. Inflation topped 14 percent early in the
Boomers’ careers. Millennials have never known more than very modest inflation. Many
Boomers grew up with stay-at-home moms; many Millennials were raised in single-parent
households.
The Pew Research Center has studied how Millennial viewpoints differ from those of other
generations, especially those of Baby Boomers. Pew has found that:
 50 percent of Millennials identify themselves as political independents; only 37 percent of
Boomers classify themselves as such.
 29 percent of Millennials don’t affiliate with any religion; 16 percent of Boomers feel the
same.
 19 percent of Millennials believe people can generally be trusted; 40 percent of Boomers
feel they can.
The Generation Gap — To a large extent, Boomers pull the region’s profile one way, the
Millennials another, with Houston’s overall profile falling somewhere in the middle. For example, among Boomers, whites outnumber all other racial and ethnic groups. Among Millennials, Hispanics are the largest group. As a result, the Anglo and Hispanic populations are
balanced today, but as the Boomer population declines, Hispanics will represent a larger share
of the metro Houston population.
Houston Racial/Ethnic Composition
White
Boomers
Black
Hispanic
51.2%
Metro
Population
37.8%
Millennials
32.3%
Asian
Other
16.6%
23.4%
16.8%
18.0%
36.3%
40.7%
7.4% 1.4%
7.3% 1.8%
7.3% 1.7%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS
Boomers tend to be better educated than Millennials, with a higher share of the Boomer population holding associate’s, bachelor’s or graduate degrees. This difference is likely due to the
trailing edge of the Millennial generation still being enrolled in school. Most Boomers completed their education decades ago. It may also result from the larger number of Hispanics,
who tend to have lower levels of educational attainment, in the Millennial population. Nearly
one-third of Millennials have some college, including those currently enrolled plus those who
started but never graduated. When those currently enrolled eventually complete their educations, the population of degree-holding Millennials should grow.
September 2016
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 2
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
Surprisingly, a larger share of MilEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN HOUSTON
% of Population 25+ Years and Older
lennials than Boomers have graduHighest
Level
of
Completion
Total
Pop Millennials Boomers
ated from high school. Several fac9.5
5.0
9.6
tors may account for this differ- Less than 9th grade
9th to 12th grade, no diploma
8.5
10.6
7.8
ence. For one, society now places a
High school graduate
22.9
26.8
23.1
greater emphasis on completing Some college, no degree
21.9
29.4
22.9
high school than when Boomers Associate's degree
6.2
5.7
6.4
were young. Second, local busi- Bachelor's degree
19.8
16.2
18.9
nesses and institutions have pro- Graduate or professional degree
11.2
6.2
11.3
grams to help struggling students Source: 2014 American Community Survey
earn their diplomas, resources not
available when Boomers were young. And third, many Boomers grew up in an era when a high
school dropout could work in a factory or at a construction site and still earn a decent wage.
Millennials now outnumber Boomers in the local workforce. Two factors account for the gap.
The Millennial population is simply larger and the leading edge of the Boomer generation has
already retired. However, Boomers in the workforce are more likely than Millennials to be
employed. The data don’t suggest why this is the case, but a Brookings Institution survey provides some insight. In a national survey of Millennials, 64 percent of respondents said they
would rather make $40,000 per year at a job they like rather than $100,000 per year at a job
they consider boring.
WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION IN HOUSTON – ’14
Boomers still represent
the bulk of the workforce
Number
%
in Houston’s mining,
927,913
64.2
manufacturing, transpor892,015
96.1
35,812
3.9
tation, warehousing and
518,446
35.8
utility, education, health
care and public service
sectors. Millennials dominate employment in construction, retail trade, information, professional services, hotels, food services, and other services. In some sectors, it’s obvious why Boomers outweigh Millennials, or vice versa. For
example, from the late ’80s to the mid-’00s, when oil prices seemed perpetually low, the mining (i.e., energy) sector hired few workers. As a result, the sector is now top-heavy with Baby
Boomers. Manufacturing and health care require high-level skills, through either on-the-job
training or formal education, so these sectors are more likely to employ older workers. Construction requires both strength and stamina, so these occupations are more suited to younger
workers. Retail sales and food services require minimal training or experience, making occupations in these industries more suited to those entering the workforce or those with little
schooling beyond high school. The information sector includes both media and software development, both the domain of many Millennials.
Total Population
Millennials
Number
%
Number
%
In labor force
3,302,314
67.1
1,221,510
75.6
Employed
3,112,384
94.3
1,125,575
92.2
Unemployed
187,877
3.8
94,743
7.8
Not in labor force
1,619,380
32.9
393,603
24.4
* Metro Houston population 16 years old and older.
Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
Source: 2014 American Community Survey
Status
September 2016
Boomers
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 3
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
OCCUPATION BY INDUSTRY – METRO HOUSTON – ’14
Industry
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities
Information
Finance, insurance, real estate
Professional services
Health care and educational services
Art, recreation, sports, hotels, food services
Other services
Public administration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Total Metro
Employment
132,083
287,697
319,868
119,746
326,322
182,545
39,285
180,945
391,054
607,774
257,955
175,358
91,752
Millennials
Number
46,199
118,590
112,292
42,014
205,873
56,833
19,376
67,307
161,460
227,039
194,501
75,159
31,772
% of Metro
35.0%
41.2
35.1
35.1
63.1
31.1
49.3
37.2
41.3
37.4
75.4
42.9
34.6
Boomers
Number
51,701
84,337
129,941
43,200
101,897
74,946
11,861
67,341
141,556
243,208
50,356
60,865
38,861
% of Metro
39.1%
29.3
40.6
36.1
31.2
41.1
30.2
37.2
36.2
40.0
19.5
34.7
42.4
The Pew Center found that only 26 percent of Millennials in the U.S. are married compared
to 48 percent of Boomers who were married when they were the same age. Reasons often
cited for Millennials delay include the shaky economy, high levels of student debt, women
wanting to establish careers before marriage, MARITAL STATUS OF THE METRO HOUSTON RESIDENTS 15 YEARS OLD OR OLDER
Status
Metro Houston
Millennials
Boomers
and the belief that one
Estimate
%
Estimate
%
Estimate
%
can be happy without
5,020,015
100.0
1,615,113
100.0
1,446,359
100.0
being married. Hous- Total
ton, however, some- Never married
1,690,160
33.7
1,016,081
62.9
137,719
9.5
what diverges from the Now married
2,490,445
49.6
515,405
31.9
940,597
65.0
national trend. Nearly Separated
123,845
2.5
26,677
1.7
42,808
3.0
one-third of Houston’s Widowed
222,441
4.4
2,952
0.2
84,485
5.8
Millennials are mar- Divorced
493,124
9.8
53,998
3.3
240,750
16.6
ried. Add in those who Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
are separated, widowed
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
or divorced, and 37.1
percent of Houston’s Millennials have experienced marriage at some time in their lives. Over
time, that percentage is likely to rise, but whether Millennials reach the marriage rates of the
Boomer generation remains to be seen.
Not Just Birkenstocks and Garages – Startups and new businesses grab headlines for their
relaxed company culture or generous employee benefits, but they are also important drivers of
economic growth. According to the Kauffman Foundation, new and young companies are the
primary source of job creation in the American economy and spur innovation.
September 2016
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 4
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
The Houston metro area was home to 24,116
firms that have been in business three years or
less1 as reported by the inaugural 2014 Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs from the U.S.
Census Bureau. These young firms represented 6.3 percent of total employment and
24.8 percent of total firms, more than the 22.2
percent share of young firms nationwide.
Among U.S. metro areas, Houston ranked
seventh in its share of entrepreneurial firms,
below Austin (27.0 percent) and barely edging out Silicon Valley (24.7 percent).
Houston Innovation Map
Click here to view the map.
AGE OF FIRMS IN METRO HOUSTON
# of years in
business
<2 years
# of firms
% of total firms
9,569
9.8
2 to 3 years
14,547
15.0
4 to 5 years
10,072
10.4
6 to 10 years
20,835
21.4
11 to 15 years
36,007
37.0
>16 years
6,212
6.4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs
Some sectors were more prone to entrepreneurial activity
than others. A third of the firms in accommodation and
food services were in business three years or less. Within
the oil and gas sector, 29.3 percent of its firms were entrepreneurial, and 27.0 percent of professional, scientific,
and technical services firms were young. The Annual
Survey of Entrepreneurs reflects data collected in ’14, the
last year of the energy boom, which may have supported
strong entrepreneurial activity in the oil and gas sector.
Future releases of the survey will show how young firm
activity changed during the energy downturn.
Sectors with lower concentrations of entrepreneurial activity were manufacturing (17.1 percent
of firms were in business three years or less) and wholesale trade (16.6 percent). These industries tend to have higher costs and more barriers to entry that inhibit start-up activity.
Vehicle Sales, 12-Month Total, Houston MSA
Total
400
Cars
350
Vehicles (000s)
Slowdown in the Showroom – Vehicle
sales in greater Houston continued to
weaken in July as monthly car sales
dropped to a five-year low, according to
data from TexAuto Facts, published by
InfoNation, Inc. of Sugar Land. Houston
area auto dealers sold 175,908 vehicles
through July, a 21.7 percent drop from
the 224,566 vehicles sold during the
same span last year. Sales from the most
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
Source: TexAuto Facts Report by InfoNation
1
For purposes of this commentary, “young” and “entrepreneurial” is defined as a firm in business for three years or less.
September 2016
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 5
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
recent 12 months were 327,823 vehicles, down 13.2 percent from a peak of 377,705 sold during
the 12 months preceding October ’15. The rolling 12-month total has fallen for seven consecutive months.
In July, new vehicle sales totaled 22,145, a 38.1 percent drop from July ’15. Although overall
vehicle sales are down, low fuel costs are boosting truck/SUV market share to record levels.
The 7,843 cars that sold in July, a 45.7 percent drop from July ’15, were the fewest sold in a
single month since September ’11. The drop in car sales has increased the market share for
trucks and SUVs, which accounted for a record 64.6 percent of vehicles sold in July.
Market Share, 12-Month Avg, Houston MSA
Cars
70
Trucks
65
Market Share (%)
Vehicle prices also are beginning to
drop. The average retail price for a
new vehicle in metro Houston was
$34,659 in July, a 4.7 percent decrease from the January peak of
$36,357. The average price has
fallen for three consecutive months.
The increased share of higherpriced trucks and SUVs has not
been enough to offset the discounts
offered by dealerships as they compete in a weakened market.
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
Source: TexAuto Facts Report by InfoNation
Ford is the top selling auto maker in the Houston region, with 30,161 vehicles sold through
July. Rounding out the top five are Toyota (29,942), General Motors (27,482), Fiat-Chrysler
(23,347), and Nissan (16,110). The only manufacturers to beat their year-to-date sales totals
from this time last year are Volvo, up 20.1 percent with 670 sales, and Tesla, up 11.2 percent
with 228 sales.
Employment Update — Metro Houston lost 8,600 jobs in July, according to data from the
Texas Workforce Commission. Houston always experiences significant job losses mid-year as
educators on 10-month contracts are without work during the summer. This year’s loss fell
well below the typical loss of 15,000 jobs for the month. July’s job losses will likely be recouped when September data is released, which will reflect the resumption of school.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the region has added jobs in three of the past four months,
adding 3,700 in July. Seasonally adjusted employment is only 5,700 jobs below Houston’s
January ’16 peak.
Of note, the mining and logging sector, which has averaged losses of 1,500 jobs per month
since January ’15, lost only 300 jobs in July. From early June to mid-July, crude prices averaged $48 per barrel. Over the same period, the U.S. drilling fleet added 54 rigs. Those two
trends suggest the energy industry may have seen the worst of the downturn. As a result, energy-related job losses have begun to moderate.
September 2016
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 6
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
Sectors recording notable growth in July were professional and business services (+5,100 jobs),
construction (+2,100), and trade, transportation and utilities (+1,500). Sectors recording notable job losses included local government education services (-14,400) and health care (-1,200).
Energy Snapshot —West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for light sweet
crude, opened the first trading day of August at $40.06 and closed the last trading day of the
month at $46.97. Since WTI hit bottom at $26.19 in mid-February the price has jumped 79
percent. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) September ’16 Short-Term
Energy Outlook projects WTI to average $51 a barrel in ’17. That’s an improvement from
March ’16, when EIA forecast WTI to averge $40 a barrel next year.
The last week of August saw 497 drilling rigs working in the United States, up from the lateMay trough of 404 but down from 864 the same week last year. Through the first eight months
of this year, 17,390 drilling permits were issued for onshore, shallow offshore and the
deepwaters of the Gulf of Mexico. That compares with 30,666 permits issued over the same
period last year.
EIA expects global consumption to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in ’17,
mostly driven by growth in countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. EIA expects non-OPEC production to decline by 0.2 million bbl/d in ’17,
and for OPEC crude oil production to drop by 0.5 million bbl/d.
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity is expected to be 1.3 million bbl/d next year.
Surplus capacity below 2.5 million bbl/d indicates a relatively tight oil market. However,
global oil inventories currently exceed 3.1 billion barrels, diminishing the influence OPEC’s
low surplus capacity has on prices.
Save the Date — The Greater Houston Partnership’s 2017 Economic Outlook event is scheduled for Friday, December 9, at the Royal
Sonesta Hotel. The event will feature a panel of
experts discussing the outlook for energy,
health care, real estate, construction and professional services in the coming year. The Partnership’s employment forecast for 2017 will
be presented. And Kevin Swift, chief economist for the American Chemistry Council, will
be the luncheon keynote speaker. Additional details about the event and how to purchase
tickets will be posted at the Partnership’s website, www.houston.org, starting mid-October.
WE ARE MOVING – The Greater Houston Partnership will move into our new home at
Partnership Tower on September 12. Our new space, located on the east side of downtown
at 701 Avenida de las Americas, will open to our members and guests in early October. For
more information about the move, click here.
September 2016
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 7
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
SNAPSHOT — KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Aviation — The Houston Airport System handled 32.1 million passengers through the first
seven months of this year, up 0.4 percent from the 32.0 million handled over the same
period in ’15. Domestic passengers totaled 25.1 million, down 2.4 percent from 25.7 million handled YTD in ’15. International passengers totaled 7.0 million, up 11.6 percent from
the 6.3 million handled YTD in ’15.
Building Permits — City of Houston building permits totaled $962.3 million in July ’16,
down 1.6 percent from $978.3 million in July ’15, according to the latest data released by
the City’s Department of Public Works & Engineering Planning & Development Services.
Year-to-date, city building permits totaled $4.4 billion, down 8.6 percent from $4.8 billion
over the same period in ’15.
Inflation — The cost of consumer goods and services as measured by the Consumer Price
Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.8 percent nationwide from July ’15 to July
’16, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core inflation (all items less the
volatile food and energy categories) increased 2.2 percent since July ’15.
Home Sales — Houston-area single-family home sales slipped 8.8 percent from 7,898 in
July ’15 to 7,204 in July ’16. The July decrease is the first over-the-year drop since January
’16, according to the Houston Association of Realtors ®. Year to date, single-family home
sales totaled 43,661, up 0.7 percent from 43,346 sales during the same period in ’15. The
median price for a single-family home sold in metro Houston rose 4.1 percent to $230,000,
the highest on record for a July and the second highest of all time. The average sales price
dropped 0.5 percent to $292,316.
Purchasing Managers Index — The Houston Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a shortterm leading indicator for regional production, registered 43.8 in July, up slightly from 43.7
in June, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management-Houston.
With the July reading, the PMI has signaled economic contraction in Houston for 19 consecutive months.
Sales Tax Collections — City of Houston sales tax collections totaled $427.4 million
through August of this year, down 4.5 percent from $447.5 million from the same period
last year.
Patrick Jankowski,
Roel Martinez, Josh Pherigo,
Nadia Valliani and Jenny Philip
contributed to this issue of
Houston: The Economy at a Glance
September 2016
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 8
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
STAY UP TO DATE!
To access past issues of Economy at a Glance, please click here.
If you are a not a member of the Greater Houston Partnership and would like to subscribe to
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September 2016
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 9
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
HOUSTON MSA NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (000)
Change from
June '16
July '15
% Change from
June '16
July '15
July '16
June '16
July '15
2,993.3
2,619.9
535.7
2,457.6
2,084.2
3,001.9
2,614.1
534.1
2,467.8
2,080.0
2,980.0
2,614.5
562.7
2,417.3
2,051.8
-8.6
5.8
1.6
-10.2
4.2
13.3
5.4
-27.0
40.3
32.4
-0.3
0.2
0.3
-0.4
0.2
0.4
0.2
-4.8
1.7
1.6
86.5
50.2
37.2
86.8
50.4
36.8
99.9
53.5
45.0
-0.3
-0.2
0.4
-13.4
-3.3
-7.8
-0.3
-0.4
1.1
-13.4
-6.2
-17.3
Construction
217.9
215.8
217.5
2.1
0.4
1.0
0.2
Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
231.3
146.1
85.2
231.5
146.7
84.8
245.3
163.9
81.4
-0.2
-0.6
0.4
-14.0
-17.8
3.8
-0.1
-0.4
0.5
-5.7
-10.9
4.7
Wholesale Trade
170.1
169.9
172.8
0.2
-2.7
0.1
-1.6
Retail Trade
308.8
307.9
300.8
0.9
8.0
0.3
2.7
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
Utilities
Air Transportation
Truck Transportation
Pipeline Transportation
137.9
16.1
21.8
25.3
10.9
137.5
16.2
21.9
25.1
10.8
138.3
16.1
21.8
25.9
10.7
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.2
0.3
-0.7
-0.5
0.8
0.9
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-2.3
1.9
Information
Telecommunications
30.5
13.9
31.2
14.0
32.9
14.2
-0.7
-0.1
-2.4
-0.3
-2.2
-0.7
-7.3
-2.1
Finance & Insurance
99.1
98.5
96.5
0.6
2.6
0.6
2.7
Real Estate & Rental and Leasing
56.0
56.0
55.6
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.7
463.7
214.7
24.4
23.8
65.8
32.6
213.7
201.7
77.5
458.6
210.5
24.5
23.5
65.3
32.3
212.3
200.3
76.3
473.7
219.7
24.8
22.4
72.0
33.5
216.9
205.3
80.1
5.1
4.2
-0.1
0.3
0.5
0.3
1.4
1.4
1.2
-10.0
-5.0
-0.4
1.4
-6.2
-0.9
-3.2
-3.6
-2.6
1.1
2.0
-0.4
1.3
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.7
1.6
-2.1
-2.3
-1.6
6.3
-8.6
-2.7
-1.5
-1.8
-3.2
56.4
57.0
53.6
-0.6
2.8
-1.1
5.2
Health Care & Social Assistance
325.2
326.4
313.2
-1.2
12.0
-0.4
3.8
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
37.2
37.1
34.5
0.1
2.7
0.3
7.8
Accommodation & Food Services
291.0
290.7
271.3
0.3
19.7
0.1
7.3
Other Services
108.3
109.2
108.6
-0.9
-0.3
-0.8
-0.3
Government
Federal Government
State Government
State Government Educational Services
Local Government
Local Government Educational Services
373.4
28.4
71.2
38.0
273.8
186.2
387.8
28.4
71.6
38.5
287.8
200.6
365.5
28.0
70.3
37.4
267.2
181.2
-14.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.5
-14.0
-14.4
7.9
0.4
0.9
0.6
6.6
5.0
-3.7
0.0
-0.6
-1.3
-4.9
-7.2
2.2
1.4
1.3
1.6
2.5
2.8
Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs
Total Private
Goods Producing
Service Providing
Private Service Providing
Mining and Logging
Oil & Gas Extraction
Support Activities for Mining
Professional & Business Services
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Legal Services
Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping
Architectural, Engineering & Related Services
Computer Systems Design & Related Services
Admin & Support/Waste Mgt & Remediation
Administrative & Support Services
Employment Services
Educational Services
SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission
September 2016
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 10
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
Houston Economic Indicators
A Service of the Greater Houston Partnership
ENERGY
U.S. Active Rotary Rigs
Spot Crude Oil Price ($/bbl, West Texas Intermediate)
Spot Natural Gas ($/MMBtu, Henry Hub)
UTILITIES AND PRODUCTION
Houston Purchasing Managers Index
Nonresidential Electric Current Sales (Mwh, CNP Service Area)
CONSTRUCTION
Total Building Contracts ($, Houston MSA)
Nonresidential
Residential
Building Permits ($, City of Houston)
Nonresidential
New Nonresidential
Nonresidential Additions/Alterations/Conversions
Residential
New Residential
Residential Additions/Alterations/Conversions
Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Activity
Property Sales
Median Sales Price - SF Detached
Active Listings
EMPLOYMENT (Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA)
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Goods Producing (Natural Resources/Mining/Const/Mfg)
Service Providing
Unemployment Rate (%) - Not Seasonally Adjusted
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA
Texas
U.S.
TRANSPORTATION
Port of Houston Authority Shipments (Short Tons)
Air Passengers (Houston Airport System)
Domestic Passengers
International Passengers
Landings and Takeoffs
Air Freight (metric tons)
Enplaned
Deplaned
CONSUMERS
New Car and Truck Sales (Units, Houston MSA)
Cars
Trucks, SUVs and Commercials
Total Retail Sales ($000,000, Houston MSA, NAICS Basis)
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ('82-'84=100)
Houston-Galveston-Brazoria CMSA
United States
Hotel Performance (Houston MSA)
Occupancy (%)
Average Room Rate ($)
Revenue Per Available Room ($)
September 2016
YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL or
YTD AVERAGE*
MONTHLY DATA
Month
Most
Recent
Year
%
Earlier Change
Aug '16
July '16
July '16
481
44.65
2.82
883
50.90
2.84
-45.5
-12.3
-0.7
484 *
40.06 *
2.18 *
1,083 *
52.86 *
2.82 *
-55.3
-24.2
-22.7
July '16
June '16
43.8
5,046,097
49.1
4,958,740
-10.8
1.8
44.8 *
27,570,315
46.8 *
26,869,840
-4.3
2.6
July '16
July '16
July '16
July '16
July '16
July '16
July '16
July '16
July '16
July '16
1,240,479,000
521,259,000
719,220,000
962,304,924
801,108,877
315,413,926
485,694,951
161,196,047
131,409,468
29,786,579
1,389,281,000
401,250,000
988,031,000
978,344,959
570,456,196
202,629,354
367,826,842
407,888,763
377,218,072
30,670,691
-10.7
29.9
-27.2
-1.6
40.4
55.7
32.0
-60.5
-65.2
-2.9
July '16
July '16
July '16
8,571
230,000
37,952
9,374
221,000
33,670
-8.6
4.1
12.7
52,456
218,284 *
34,758 *
July '16
July '16
July '16
2,993,300
535,700
2,457,600
2,980,000
562,700
2,417,300
0.4
-4.8
1.7
2,989,671 *
540,971 0
2,448,700 0
July '16
July '16
July '16
5.8
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.8
5.6
July '16
July '16
July '16
July '16
July '16
July '16
July '16
July '16
3,893,616
5,058,396
3,839,401
1,218,995
68,987
32,421
15,183
17,237
3,654,829
5,334,399
4,180,674
1,153,725
71,607
33,790
17,468
16,322
6.5
-5.2
-8.2
5.7
-3.7
-4.1
-13.1
5.6
26,096,412
32,105,884
25,092,403
7,013,481
456,833
233,230
113,511
119,719
28,222,939
31,981,906
25,697,028
6,284,878
468,746
242,979
126,395
116,583
-7.5
0.4
-2.4
11.6
-2.5
-4.0
-10.2
2.7
July '16
July '16
July '16
Q4/15
22,145
7,843
14,302
31,941
35,748
14,433
21,315
35,393
-38.1
-45.7
-32.9
-9.8
175,908
64,470
111,438
112,143
224,566
92,185
132,381
125,047
-21.7
-30.1
-15.8
-10.3
July '16
July '16
217.305
240.647
213.896
238.654
1.6
0.8
215.410 *
239.049 *
212.062 *
236.606 *
1.6
1.0
Q1/16
Q1/16
Q1/16
65.8
109.87
72.26
71.6
111.50
79.87
-1.5
-9.5
68.6 *
108.56 *
74.51 *
72.0 *
106.88 *
76.98 *
1.6
-3.2
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Most
Recent
8,662,113,000
3,310,248,000
5,351,865,000
4,427,353,634
2,983,371,816
1,193,018,731
1,790,353,085
1,443,981,818
1,083,708,078
360,273,740
5.0 *
4.5 *
5.0 *
Year
Earlier
10,680,251,000
4,317,345,000
6,362,906,000
4,844,251,694
3,090,776,711
1,559,371,335
1,531,405,376
1,753,474,983
1,600,220,087
153,254,896
%
Change
-18.9
-23.3
-15.9
-8.6
-3.5
-23.5
16.9
-17.7
-32.3
135.1
52,355
211,543 *
29,884 *
0.2
3.2
16.3
2,979,400 *
570,529 *
2,408,871 *
0.3
-5.2
1.7
4.5 *
4.5 *
5.6 *
Page 11
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
Sources
Rig Count
Spot WTI, Spot Natural Gas
Houston Purchasing Managers
Index
Baker Hughes Incorporated
U.S. Energy Information Admin.
National Association of
Purchasing Management –
Houston, Inc.
Electricity
CenterPoint Energy
Building Construction Contracts McGraw-Hill Construction
City of Houston Building Permits Building Permit Department,
City of Houston
MLS Data
Houston Association of Realtors
Employment, Unemployment
Texas Workforce Commission
September 2016
Port Shipments
Aviation
Car and Truck Sales
Retail Sales
Consumer Price Index
Hotels
Postings, Foreclosures
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Port of Houston Authority
Aviation Department, City of
Houston
TexAuto Facts Report, InfoNation, Inc.,
Sugar Land TX
Texas Comptroller’s Office
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
PKF Consulting/HospitalityAsset
Advisors International
Foreclosure Information &Listing
Service
Page 12
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
3,100
150
3,000
120
2,900
90
2,800
60
2,700
30
2,600
0
2,500
-30
2,400
-60
2,300
12-Month Change (000)
Nonfarm Payroll Employment (000)
Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Houston MSA
2,200
-90
2,100
-120
2,000
-150
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
12-Month Change
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
'12
'13
'14
'15
Total Payroll Employment
'16
'17
Goods-Producing and Service-Providing Employment
Houston MSA
620
2,500
2,300
540
2,200
2,100
500
2,000
460
Service-Providing Jobs (000s)
Goods-Producing Jobs (000s)
2,400
580
1,900
420
1,800
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
Goods-Producing Jobs
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
Service-Providing Jobs
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
September 2016
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 13
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
Unemployment Rate - Houston, Texas and U.S.
11
10
% Civilian Labor Force
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
Houston
'12
'13
Texas
'14
'15
'16
'17
U.S.
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Spot Crude and Natural Gas Prices
160
16
140
14
120
12
100
10
80
8
60
6
40
4
20
2
0
0
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
Natural Gas, $ /MMBtu
WTI, $ barrel
Monthly Averages
'17
WTI
Natural Gas
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
September 2016
©2016, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 14