Annual Report 2010 A Letter from Steven Cunningham, Director of Research & Education We are undertaking a concerted effort to reaffirm our alignment with the original vision forged by Col. Harwood nearly 80 years ago. We are a membership organization that provides state-of-the-art research in economics and finance. Now, as during the Great Depression, we guide our members with objective, data-driven research, giving them the means to make smart, informed decisions. This is particularly important in challenging times such as these. Thanks to David Michaels’ efforts, our finances are on track, and we have begun the hard work of rebuilding our teams, publications, and programs. We have recently hired several new economists. Julie Zhu has bachelor’s degrees in economics and statistics and has already contributed to our research. Two others are slated to come aboard full-time after the end of the current academic year. Zinnia Mukherjee has a PhD in economics and master’s degrees in economics and statistics. Lei Chen has a PhD in economics with a specialty in econometrics and master’s degrees in economics, physics, and optics. These scholars are bringing much needed strength and breadth to the research staff. People are noticing the change. In recent months, our work has been cited in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and other leading newspapers and magazines. Our op-ed pieces have been published in hundreds of newspapers, and we have Independent, Scientific, Economic Research appeared on more than 100 radio and television talk shows. We have been widely quoted on sites such as MarketWatch about gold and securities markets. We continue our teaching and outreach efforts with highly successful Knight-Bagehot and Summer Fellowship Programs. We are test-marketing our books in bookstores and have discussed distribution arrangements with national distributors. The website is under revision as part of a sweeping update of our digital delivery systems. What remains unchanged is AIER’s essential sense of mission. First in our minds is always the privilege and responsibility of serving our members. We thank you for putting your trust in us. We won’t let you down. Sincerely, Steven R. Cunningham, PhD Director of Research and Education A Letter from David Michaels, Chief Financial Officer We began 2010 sharply focused on our mission and deeply committed to helping our members protect their interests in a difficult economic climate. As an organization, we dealt with many of the same issues that our members and other charitable organizations did, and we are pleased to report that we finished the year in good financial condition. Net assets are an important indicator of financial strength. AIER’s net assets peaked in 2007 at $77.6 million and by March 2009, had dropped to $54.6 million, a decline of nearly 30 percent. Faced with a challenging economic environment and an uncertain financial future, we aggressively reduced our costs to ensure that we could deliver on our mission during a time of great need. By the end of 2010, our net assets recovered much of the losses—mainly through investment gains and cost reductions. These were offset in part by declines in revenue from publications, memberships, and donations. Our net assets at the end of 2010 were a healthier $71.2 million, of which 81.5 percent are subject to donor restrictions. These restricted assets are held in trust and are invested based on principles developed at AIER over its 78-year history. The income they generate is paid to beneficiaries designated by the donors. The assets of the trusts will be distributed to AIER when the restrictions lapse. Unrestricted net assets were $13.2 million. These are available for use in our programs. With our financial strength restored, we are committed to rebuilding our resources and expanding our programs. First and foremost, we plan to expand our research capability by adding new researchers and upgrading our research software and data-analysis capabilities. We’ll also continue our transition to digital platforms including web-based technologies and social media. Thanks to the loyal support and confidence of our members, AIER is able to continue to pursue its mission of helping individuals advance their interests in good times and bad. Sincerely, David Michaels Chief Financial Officer 2010 Annual Report 2010 Financials Condensed Consolidated Statement of Financial Position Condensed Consolidated Statement of Activities December 31, 2010, (dollars in thousands) Year Ended December 31, 2010 (dollars in thousands) Assets 2010 2009 Cash and investments $10,289 $9,192 Revenues, Gains, and Other Support 2010 2009 Receivables 381 356 Operating revenue Inventory 105 103 Contributions, grants, and bequests 3,182 3,387 Property and equipment Investments held $2,363 $2,887 Investment income 579 640 1,203 658 Change in the value under split interest agreements 141,364 127,937 Other assets 51 Total Assets 61 of split interest agreements 3,449 10,571 Total Revenues, Gains, and Other Support 7,594 14,756 155,372 141,036 Expenses and Losses Liabilities and Net Assets Operating expenses 3,588 4,949 Liabilities Expense of subsidiary 1,281 1,292 419 486 Accounts payable and accrued expenses 443 329 Management and general Deferred Income 388 507 Total Expenses and Losses 5,288 6,727 2,306 8,029 Liabilities under charitable trusts 83,325 71,290 Change in net assets Total Liabilities 84,156 72,126 Net Assets, Beginning of Year Net Assets 68,909 60,880 Net Assets, End of Year Undesignated 7,066 3,367 Designated 6,111 8,896 $71,215 $68,909 Assets held under split interest agreements 58,039 56,647 Total Net Assets 71,216 68,910 Total Liabilities and Net Assets $155,372 $141,036 Expenses and Losses Operating expenses Expense of Subsidiary Management and general Revenues, Gains, and Other Support 31% 45% 8% 16% Independent, Scientific, Economic Research Operating revenue Contributions grants and bequests Investment income Change in value of split interest agreements 8% 24% 68% Officers and Trustees April 2011 Edward H. Adolph Officers Dr. Steven R. Cunningham, Director of Research and Education Mr. David C. Michaels, Chief Financial Officer and Comptroller Mr. J. Eric Smith, Secretary of the Corporation Richard W. Brewer Board of Trustees Standing Committee Mr. Edward H. Adolph, Chair Mr. Richard W. Brewer Mr. Richard M. Doncaster Dr. Harold F. Dvorak Mrs. Marjorie H. Greer Mr. Frederick C. Harwood Mr. Peter A. Lee Mr. Sidney Rose Mr. Edward Philip Welker Dr. John M. Wilson Jr., Trustee Emeritus Dr. William S. Peirce, Trustee Emeritus Mr. Roy Bouffard Mr. Andrew H. Davis Jr., Alternate Ms. Katherine H. Delay Dr. Harold F. Dvorak, Trustee Mr. Ronald A. Gilmore Mr. Keith A. Hocter, Chair Dr. Gerald LaMarsh Ms. Phebe Jane Moore Dr. Reed E. Phillips Mr. Edward Philip Welker, Trustee Richard M. Doncaster Harold F. Dvorak Voting Members Dr. J. Scott Abercrombie Jr. Mr. Edward H. Adolph Mr. John L. Barry Mr. Timothy J. Birney Mr. Roy Bouffard Dr. Anthony C. Breuer Mr. Richard W. Brewer Mr. Shaun Buckler Mrs. Karen T. Chin Mr. Saul Cohen Mr. Andrew H. Davis Jr. Ms. Katherine H. Delay Mr. Edward E. Donaldson Mr. Richard M. Doncaster Dr. Harold F. Dvorak Mr. Latimer Eddy Mr. Paul S. Fabian Ms. Laura A. Fiske Mr. W. Blake Foster Mr. John H. Foulke Mrs. Maureen Foulke Ms. Sarah B. Foulke Ms. Opal Gilmore Mr. Ronald A. Gilmore Mr. Donald R. Grant Mr. James E. Greer Mr. James M. Greer Mrs. Marjorie H. Greer Mr. Henry Hackel Mr. Douglas L. Harwood Mr. Frederick C. Harwood Mr. Kirk E. Harwood Mrs. Michelle L. Harwood Mr. W. Scott Harwood Mr. William F. Harwood Mr. Samuel N. Hibbard Mr. Keith A. Hocter Mr. Michael S. Hoffman Mr. Todd H. Hoffman Mr. Neil D. Holden Mr. Howard Kent Mr. Roger G. Knudson Dr. Gerald LaMarsh Mr. Peter A. Lee Mr. Donald A. Lindley Ms. Kerry A. Lynch Mr. Henry J. Miller III Ms. Phebe Jane Moore Dr. Charles E. Murray Mr. Philip R. Murray Ms. Paula H. Palmer Dr. William S. Peirce Dr. Reed E. Phillips Mr. Lawrence Pratt Mr. Grant Randall Dr. Bruce M. Rodenberger Mrs. Gail Roger Mr. Sidney Rose Mr. Lincoln R. Sander Mr. Joseph Schwaiger Mrs. Mary Schwaiger Mr. Richard A. Seeley Mr. J. Eric Smith Mr. Gerald E. Sohan Dr. William H. Southwick Mr. Edward W. Spurr Mr. Frank P. Statkus Mr. George Terwilliger Mr. Walker F. Todd Mr. Gregory M. van Kipnis Mr. John W. Ward Mr. Edward Philip Welker Dr. John M. Wilson Jr. Mr. James A. Yannes Marjorie H. Greer Frederick C. Harwood Peter A. Lee Sidney Rose Edward Philip Welker Notable in 2010 Staff Highlight Lawrence S. Pratt Retires Lawrence S. Pratt Lawrence S. Pratt, senior fellow, retired in 2010 after a long and distinguished career at AIER. Larry joined the institute in 1973 and went on to do nearly every job and hold nearly every title. He first worked on the research staff under the guidance of AIER’s founder, Col. E.C. Harwood. Eventually, he became director of research and education. In the 1990s, he also served as president of American Investment Services (AIS), AIER’s wholly owned investment advisory and was the driving force behind much of the Institute’s investment research. Larry’s name may not be as familiar to supporters as it should be. For most of the time he worked here, we did not print bylines identifying the authors of articles. Suffice to say, his articles stood out for their sharp analysis, persuasiveness, timeliness, relevance, wit, and humor. (For example, he titled an article comparing the dollar to other fiat currencies “The World’s Tallest Dwarf”.) It’s not easy to write about economics for non-economists in an engaging way, but Larry viewed that as an essential part of the job. That he did so week after week for nearly four decades is astonishing. In addition to countless articles, he wrote a number of books, including How to Invest Wisely. He also edited many articles and books for AIER, often taking the straw of early drafts and spinning it into gold. He taught a seminar in AIER’s Summer Fellowship Program, on “Thinking Like an Economist,” aimed at encouraging the summer fellows (mostly graduate students in economics) to consider how they might help noneconomists to better understand the world. AIER is grateful to have benefited from Larry Pratt’s talent and dedication for so long, and we wish him a much deserved happy retirement. AIER Lecture Series Forbes Editor Highlights This Year’s Roster William Baldwin Each year, AIER augments its publications through a series of lectures by distinguished speakers on campus and at selected meet-and-greets across the country. One of the highlights of the 2010 lecture series was a campus visit by longtime Forbes editor William Baldwin. At a special event immediately following the October meeting of the board of trustees, he spoke to AIER members and invited guests. His topic: How to Make Money and Keep it from the IRS. The talk on a classic AIER theme covered a variety of points Independent, Scientific, Economic Research from the best way to buy gold to the outlook for corporate earnings. It was followed by a lively question-and-answer period and a reception that allowed for more informal discussions. Baldwin joined Forbes’ Washington bureau in 1980. He served successively as bureau chief, assistant managing editor, and managing editor before becoming editor in January 1999. He ran the magazine until August 2010, when he returned to writing about investment strategies, one of his areas of expertise. Mr. Baldwin was the second Forbes writer to speak at AIER in 2010. The first was the late Jerry Flint. In May, the legendary automotive writer gave a talk at AIER that was the last public presentation of his distinguished career. William Baldwin will return to AIER sometime in 2011. Our Generous Donors Joseph Abbott Robert A. Adams Lucien Adams Robert T. Adkins Edward Adolph Mercedes M. Agogino Kambiz M. Ahy Alexander E. Aidee William D. Albro Wesley E. Allen James P. Allen Richard & Jean Amable Charles O. Ames Robert A. Anderson Thornton Anderson Bob Anderson Rene A. Angus Richard V. Annable Robert A. Aquadro Richard Arkwright William Arwady Arthur W. Aubin Nick Aversa Charles Bacon Daniel Baker Allen Baker Horace Baker Ralph Balzac Elizabeth Barnes James Barnes Mildred H. Barton Robert J. Bartruff Bradley Bates Elliott M. Bates Saul Becker Clyde E. Beimfohr Cal Beisswanger Denise M. Bell William Beltrone C. M. Bend Edward L. Bennett Beverley Benson Eugene J. Benson John Bilafer T. H. Bilbrey John Blackett Carl E. Block John D. Bogden J. Neil Boger Robert A. Bonacchi Karin Bonding Arthur J. Bonnel Roy E. Bouffard Chris M. Boxell Mary A. Boyd Todd Bradley Antonio Branco W. H. Brandt Raymond Brautigan John E. Bray George J. Breckenridge Richard L. Brennan John T. Brennan Anthony C. Breuer Richard W. Brewer Walter Brewer John Bridge Robert D. Briglia Tom Broadbent Dorothy A. Brockhoff Clarence S. Bromberek James G. Brooks James C. Broten Ed Brown Timothy Brown William Browne Wallace G. Brownson Richard G. Brunner Paul D. Bryan Bruce Bunch Price B. Burgess James P. Burke William H. Burnham Douglas H. Buswell D. L. Butler Pierce Callahan Matthew Calvert William Z. Cann Wilbur J. Cannon John Carberry A. E. Carden Russell C. Carlson Randolph C. Carr Mike Carroll Robert Case Thomas Cassidy Joe Casteel Alan M. Catalano Kenneth J. Cavanaugh Joseph Cembrola Wayne F. Chalupa Chuan Chang Robert Charnoff Michael Cherniss John C. Chinn Robert F. Cipolle William H. Claflin Cameron S. Clark John K. Class Carl Clemens John P. Clifford Cloverleaf Corp Charles J. Cobbett Jay Cochran James P. Coffin Gerard H. Cohen Philip Cohen William Coletti James Collier W. D. Collingwood Robert M. Collins Edward Coman John Comino Gail Conway Dorothy Cooper Richard Cory M. F. Costantino John J. Coupal George Covert Samuel A. Craig Joseph H. Creegan Robert Crocker Jerald Crum Alice Crume E. Culhane Ed Cullen Edward Cummings Mike Cunningham Henry W. Curran Sundaram Curtis John Cushing Frank Cutrone Wayne C. Dabb Dorothy R. Daly Joseph Damato F. W. Dau Neil Dauler-Phinney Donald R. Davenport Andrew H. Davis Don Gordon Davis Robert C. Davis Shethar Davis Rex M. Davis James Day H. C. Dearnley Gary Deboise Rey Del Rios George N. Deloache John M. Dengler Maryanne Desantis Gerard Desapio Bill Descher Hank Diambra Willard M. Dillon Brian Dillon Michael J. Dixon James E. Dixon William T. Doherty Edward E. Donaldson Richard M. Doncaster Charles Dorrance Dan P. Dougherty Robert C. Draper Eric M. Dreyfuss James F. Driscoll R. Gerard Du Bois Joel Dumont Freeman Dunn Joseph V. Dunn Fred L. Dunn Katharine C. Dunn Harold F. Dvorak Jan F. Dyke Fred G. Eagerton Thomas J. Earley John W. Earley David Earnest Gary Eckhardt Rodger Eddy Phyliss Edmonson Glen C. Edquist Albert J. Eisenberg Angela Elefante Gene Ellis Ann J. Engle Jack Erickson Walter Eth Frank M. Evelhoch Robert W. Fabian Michael G. Fader Jeffrey R. Falick Richard Falkenstein Raymond F. Farley Robert Fast Theodore Fay Gloria Fazramos Larry M. Feather John P. Feather Kenneth Fedorock Barbara Felt Paul Fenske Thomas D. Fenton Robert Fewell Gary Fey Norman P. Fitzgerald John Fleming Diane E. Flieger James Flood Robert B. Folsom William F. Ford E. A. Foreman John Forgos William E. Forsythe W. Blake Foster David Foster Maureen Foulke Richard W. Fox Donald Francis Douglas C. Franke John E. Frost W. H. Furge Robert Furusho Mary B. Fusaro Francis P. Galgano Thomas Gallagher John Garabedian Kenneth Garr David Garvin William R. Gaston Charles F. Gates George D. Gatteny Leland Gerwig Thomas Gibson Henry Gifford Houghton Gifford MD Richard Giggey Jeffrey D. Gilbert Robert E. Gillmor Niko V. Gjaja Jonathan Goldstein Nicholas Gonsalves Bernard Goodman Jason Goodman Gary T. Goodrich Graeme Goodsir Thomas J. Goodwin Sondra & Albert Gordon Bruce Gore Thomas F. Gorman Frank W. Gorman Homer Gossard Ernestine Gott Pollyann M. Grady Martin Grady Carl F. Graesser Louis B. Gratzer Samuel D. Greco James & Marjorie Greer James E. Greer Bradley L. Griffin Jasper Grilli V. J. Grimaldi Carl Groepler Robert W. Gruenewald Michael Guertler Raymond A. Guilbert Paul J. Guyett John T. Hagy John Hall Gerald Hall 2010 Annual Report Our Generous Donors (continued) Stefan K. Haller Harry E. Halstead William D. Hamilton Richard C. Hamilton Richard D. Handren Warren K. Hanscom David C. Hanson Herbert W. Harlow James Hart Martin Hartkopf John E. Hartman Anita M. Hartman William E. Harvey W. Scott Harwood Fred Harwood Kirk & Debbie Harwood Bert G. Hassler Jack M. Hastings Richard Hatch Timothy Hayes Thomas W. Hayes John Haymaker Philip Hazen Joseph E. Heafy Raymond Heelan Joe H. Hege Alfred D. Heggie Peter Hennessey James Herbst William Herndl Arthur Herndon James Hersh Eugene Herzog Ronald M. Heymann Sam Hibbard M. Lamar Hicks Robert A. Higgins Marshall Hilgendorf Edward D. Hill Edward Hillier Jane B. Hillman Robert A. Hintermister Keith Hocter Donald E. Hoffmeister James T. Hohmann Chuck Holland Ed Holly Timothy A. Holst Herbert Homan William R. Horn Edward Hostetler Jeff Hough Ken Howard Tom Hoyord Ian O. Huebsch W. W. Huffman Gordon A. Hughes Lawrence Hurvitz Masato Ikeda Joseph Ippolito Elwood N. Irwin Herrick Jackson Mokarram Jafri Daniel Jagiello Albert E. Jenkins Dale Jenkins Robert Jenks Ken Jernstrom Earl Johnson Karen C. Johnson Robert Johnson W. F. Johnson Ricky Johnson Harry Johnson Conrad H. Jones Gary Jones Richard H. Jordan M. Jean Kamper Alexander T. Kamwell Milton M. Kaplan Daryl A. Kearns Kathy Kehoe Albert G. Keith William K. Kellogg James J. Kelly Candice Kelly Robert Kelsey Jack D. Kerstetter Frank Kery George E. Kientzy M. King William D. Kirby Raymond J. Klank Edward J. Kleczynski Timothy Kleczynski A Stellar Collection Expands Its Reach AIER’S 15,000-volume library boasts a wide variety of books about economics and related topics and contains one of the best collections in the country on gold and land-value taxation. The library has always welcomed inquiries from members and readers and opens its doors to the general public. But in 2010, it made substantial steps toward expanding its services. The dozens of member requests for reference statistics and AIER articles that Librarian Samantha Woodson answered was only the beginning. Improvements this year to the E.C. Harwood Library involve both the physical collection and the collection’s electronic presence. Visitors to campus will notice that a small conference room now houses the papers of the late Lowell Harriss, distinguished Librarian Samantha Woodson welcomes reference questions from members. Independent, Scientific, Economic Research professor of economics at Columbia University and longtime AIER trustee. The cataloguing of hundreds of books, articles, unpublished manuscripts, and transcripts of speeches began in June 2010. By the end of year, it was almost halfway complete. An important part of the process is digitizing the collection so that AIER supporters, scholars, and other interested parties anywhere in the world some day will be able to access Dr. Harriss’ collection. Elsewhere, the library has undergone significant revamping in accordance with a five-year strategic plan aimed at improving accessibility. Government documents received a much-needed weeding and were moved to new shelving in the main library. The AIER publications aisle has been re-organized for easier access. Most importantly, Woodson nearly completed putting all AIER publications into electronic and searchable form by the end of 2010. She also made substantial strides to improving the online accessibility to the AIER archives. These changes are preliminary to the creation of a digital library that will be available to members. The move toward digitalization does not preclude the personal touch that has been a hallmark of AIER’s member services. Woodson’s goal is to increase the number of reference questions she gets from members and readers. You can reach her at (413) 528-1216, ext. 3118, or by e-mailing samantha.woodson@aier.org. James Kloverstrom Russell Knetzger Dexter M. Kohn Stanley H. Konefal Kenneth C. Kopplow Walter Korntheuer C. Andrew Kostrevagh Donna Kovalsky Dimitrios K. Kritikos Michael Krizman Albert F. Kropas Roy Krughoff Everett Ladd Helen L. Laird Gerald Lamarsh Roy Lamb Paul J. Lambeck Kenneth Lamontagne Roderic C. Lancey Virginia Larsen W. Phil Laudenschlager Robert Lawrence Robert A. Lawson Iris G. Lazan David J. Le Ray Frank Leahy Robert A. Leblanc Nathan S. Lee James Leeds Robert Lefebvre William E. Lehr Col Henry A. Leighton Steven Leitz David Leray David A. Levene John J. Leyden David Linde Thomas G. Linxweiler D. P. Litzenberger Chris M. Lloyd George E. Lonergan David M. Long Gerald M. Long James C. Lordeman Charles W. Loufek Donald A. Lovis Glenn C. Lucas Kenneth H. Ludlum Arthur Lundeberg Arthur J. Lupo Beatrice Lushington Kerry Lynch Mark Lytle Ralph W. MacDonald Theresa Mack Joseph E. Mackey Alex MacMurdo Alkis Makrides Thomas C. Manning John Manolaros August G. Manza Bob Marschner Michael Martin Douglas G. Martz Kenneth Masters M. Masuda Virginia Matousek Gordon E. Matteson George H. Matthies Ralph Mayer Frank Mazza Murray A. McAndrew J. S. McClelland Charles G. McClure Sandra McCormick Richard W. McFalls Robert McFarland John K. McGuirt William McGurk Wilma McKenzie James McKittrick Wilton McLean Philip McPheron Madeline McWhinney-Dale Sandra McCormick Timothy Meehan William J. Metcalf James Metzger T. N. Meyer David C. Michaels George B. Michel David E. Middleton Louis Miller John L. Miller John V. Minges Maryam Minter Royce J. Mitchell Robert J. Mitchell William M. Moe Robert E. Monahan Jack E. Monett Don Montgomery Harry J. Moore Frank J. Moore Patricia Moran Eugene & Anny Morel Leonard W. Morgan Robert F. Moriarty Don & Kathy Morris Walter Morris William S. Moyer Michael Mueller Krish Mukhopadhyay Don Munger Robert B. Munro Richard M. Murdock Frederick P. Murdock Michael Murphy Charles E. Murray Philip R. Murray John A. Murray Paul Myers Joseph M. Nappi J. J. Narus Howard L. Naslund Thomas C. Neal Albert F. Nibbe Richard Nichols George G. Nimick Norman E. Nitschke Paul S. Nix Elwood T. Noad Mark H. Noe Juan Noguera Bud Norman Barbara O’Connell John R. O’Connell Vincent P. Ogurek John J. Olender Jacob Oliver Rein Olvet John V. Ondrejicka Orcas Bay Foundation Charles Ortmann Dieter Oschatz Albert H. Ostien Jean B. Oswald Charles Paddock Peter Pagazani Dave Palentchar Michael & Paula Palmer Lee W. Parke Darrell D. Parker Clarence S. Parker Dallas Pasco Rex Q. Pass Billy M. Paul Suzanne M. Paulsen J. L. Pecora Robert Penman Lucas F. Perez Lynn T. Perry William Peschke Stephen Peters Floyd Peters Michael Pfeifer Gary Phillips Reed E. Phillips Betty Phillips Lloyd Pickell James R. Pittard Henry Pittard John D. Plowright George H. Plude David H. Pond Richard Porotsky Eleonore Portincasa Don N. Powell Alexander Power William D. Power In Memoriam V. George Castle 1920-2011 Longtime AIER voting member, V. George Castle, died in his sleep January 30. He loved life and all the joys it had to give. When people would tell him to “Have a nice day,” his reply was always “You have a nice forever.” He loved his five children and his grandchildren, and was dedicated to his loving wife, Virginia, also a longtime voting member until her death in 2007. George Castle was associated with the Institute for 35 years. He became a voting member in 1976. He served on the standing committee from 1978 to 1997 and as a trustee from 1988 to 2010. A commercial pilot, he learned to fly in the Navy, which he joined at the beginning of WWII. After the war, he flew for a small airline some of his friends were starting. He intended to stay just for the summer and then to begin medical school. He never did, Instead, he clocked countless miles as a commercial pilot for Empire, West Coast, and Hughes Airwest Airlines. He greatly will be missed at AIER. V. George Castle 2010 Annual Report Our Generous Donors (continued) William F. Prebe Robert R. Prechter Stephen D. Prew Victor Prieto Patricia Probst Larry Pullin Janet Pushies Joann Putnam Gregory Pyatigorsky La Vern Pyles Michael Radov Milt Radovich Florence Rainone Anthony E. Rapp Richard A. Rasmussen Brenda Rathje Daniel H. Raver Frank J. Reget Robert W. Reid Bob & Joy Reinstein Donnell T. Reither James A. Remley Ted R. Restko Robert Rhein David Rice Arthur P. Rich Randolph E. Richardson Herman E. Richardson Bruno A. Risatti Donald R. Roberts Richard D. Roberts Stephen Robinson Richard W. Robinson Clayton S. Robinson Colin L. Robinson Bruce M. Rodenberger James Rodgers Gail Roger Lucy H. Rogge Bruce Rogove R. A. Rohrbacher L. F. Rolsen Albert M. Romanick Alvan Rosenberg Bernard Rosenkrantz Gregory C. Ross Brian Roth Walter W. Ruegger James Ruitenberg Alan D. Russell Everett J. Ryan James W. Ryan David C. Saalfrank Paul Salerno Victor Salgado Roy L. Salter Robert Sanborn Lincoln R. Sander Frank Santacana Wilmer J. E. Sauerbrey Patricia J. Sawvel James F. Scanlon Joseph Schatteman Francis R. Schmid John D. Schuele Robert E. Schulz Harry Schumacher Mary Schwaiger Charles L. Scott Eugene B. Scroggins Floyd Seay James M. Seeright Frank J. Sehn Doris I. Sekerka Ralph Selle Kazuo Senda Charles K. Sestok Norman Shafer Gordon Shaw Earl Shephard Earl P. Sheppard Daniel R. Shoop Edward Sichterman Harvey Siegel Anthony Silva Alvin Silvey Howard Simon Gary P. Sims Bill Skroch J. Eric Smith S. Clarke Smith Irving Smith Hugh Smith J. Fort Smith Stephen J. Snap Ben A. Soldo Frank Sorrel Andrew J. Soter William H. Southwick A. Spang Robert D. Spiller Nicholas J. St George Edwin S. Stacey John J. Starr Julia A. Stauffer Dimitri R. Stein Klaus Steiner James T. Stento Ted Stephens Robert Stephens Robert Stevens W. E. Stevenson Independent, Scientific, Economic Research James Stockham Ward D. Stoepker Robert Stolte Jerry A. Stransky Colin Straub C. Streitwieser John Stutzman Harry Styer Peter G. Sulzer Patrick Sutherland Virginia M. Sutton Garen Suzan Patrick Sweeney Joseph A. Swiney Donald B. Sykes Robert E. Taylor Doyle Taylor Neil L. Taylor Gilbert Terlicher M. S. Terrass Gregory Terwilliger Eldon A. Tessman Susan Thomas Don L. Thompson William Thompson George Thompson Walker Todd Guillermo G. Tolentino Tom Tolman Thomas F. Tolman Laurence J. Toole Agnes Toth Anthony Trapanese Aubrey J. Travitz David Trend Jim Trowbridge Paul Twords Thomas Ullman Alfred H. Underwood Daniel A. Vaccaro Richard C. Valentine Charles Van Benschoten Robert D. Van Buiten Robert L. Van Nest James Van Valkenburgh Don G. Vandegriff Dean Vanzand John Vasilchin James G. Velez Robert Villareal Jean Vincent Olaf Virro Allen Vis Mary W. Voelz John Volkhardt John Waldichuk William K. Walker James Walsh Susanna Walters Paul E. Wank E. Jean Ward Stephen J. Warner C. V. Warren Mark G. Washechek Faith P. Waters James C. Watkins Ronnie K. Watts Daniel Wayburn Heinz K. Wehner Robert Wehrle Bernard Weideman Thomas E. Weidenkopf Edward P. Welker Frank E. Wellersdieck Director of Research Steven Cunningham (left) confers with research staffers Keming Liang and Polina Vlasenko. G. T. Wenning William R. Wessell Charles B. West John Westendorf Richard Whelan Harry H. Whipp John M. White Ronald L. Whitehead Charles E. Whiteman Gary A. Whitney Bruce K. Willard Stan Williams Harold Williams Hugh W. Wilson Ruth Wilson Jim Wilson Charles E. Winn John M. Winters James F. Witten Robert L. Wolfe Alden Wolfgram Norman D. Wood Ethel D. Woodall G. Woodroffe Charles G. Woram Edwin Wortham John Worthington J. V. Wright Marilyn Wright James A. Yannes Robert Zeller Anna Zipay Edgar W. Zobel James P. Zubulake Robert Zuleeg Lloyd J. Zwicker Dirk A. Zylstra American Investment Services, Inc. Investment Advice with a Mission The American Institute for Economic Research is unique among economic think tanks. Unlike policy-oriented institutions, AIER speaks directly to the needs of ordinary citizens. AIER’s ownership of American Investment Services, Inc., an SEC Registered Investment Adviser, serves the Institute’s mission by providing individuals and institutions with low-cost information and advice based on objective, empirical review of capital market data beginning as early as 1926. AIS is unique among money managers. Unlike Wall Street firms, we are owned by an educational institution. 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AIER Staff Campbell Bridges Director of Information Technology Steven Cunningham Director of Research and Education Kelly Fox Member Services Manager Bruce Gore Facilities Manager Gretchen Hayn Executive Assistant Keming Liang Research Associate Laurie Pshenishny Assistant Comptroller Walker Todd Research Fellow Kerry Lynch Senior Fellow Gail Roger Director of Human Resources Polina Vlasenko Research Fellow Cathy Marchand Member Services Team Leader Marcia Stamell Creative Director, Editor Samantha Woodson Librarian David Michaels Chief Financial Officer, Comptroller Jonathan Sylbert Production Designer Julie Ni Zhu Research Analyst Robert Norton Senior Fellow, Research Advisor Eric Taylor Graphic Designer, Web Content Manager Economic Bulletin Vol. LI, April 2011 The Economic Bulletin is published once a month at Great Barrington, Mass., by the American Institute for Economic Research, a scientific and educational organization with no stockholders, chartered under Chapter 180 of the General Laws of Massachusetts. 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