The Future of Refrigeration, Air
Conditioning and Heat Pumps
Graeme Maidment CEng, MIMechE Fellow
President of the Institute of Refrigeration
Graeme@ior.org.uk
and London South Bank University
maidmegg@LSBU.ac.uk
Catarina Marques, MInstR PhD
R&D manager at Adande Refrigeration,
KTP Associate at London South Bank University
cmarques@adande.com
Content
• The vital role of the RACHP Industry
• Our impact on the economy
• Environmental challenges ahead
• Strategies for change
• Resourcing our profession
The Vital Role of RACHP
The vital role of RACHP
…But RACHP use wont stand still
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Increase in local manufacturing
New chemical/ drugs
New domestic cooling uses
New medical applications
Increased in defence cooling
Growth in electronics cooling
Growth in data centres
• Increased internet shopping
• More demand for AC
• Massive expansion of heat pumps
An some other interesting ideas?
Economic Impact of RACHP Industry
Direct Impact
•£2.4 Billion, 1 in 1000 jobs in
manufacturing of
refrigeration Plus service/
maintenance
Indirect Impacts:
• RAC underpins many
industries….
• 70% of foods are chilled or frozen
when produced - £56 billion p.a.
• Refrigeration is important in
preventing waste…
Challenges ahead
1. Population growth and resources
2. Climate change
Population Growth and Resources
• Population to grow from 7B in
2011 to 9B in 2050
• 3B of the developing world
become middle class by
2030, doubling today’s middle
class
• The population will demand
more commodities, food,
buildings and infrastructure
• Demand is expected to rise
by 1/3 by 2020
Population Growth and Resources
Less waste, More recycling
and remanufacturing
• Sign posted in Govt Policy on
reducing and managing waste 2013
• Towards a Zero waste economy
• Leasing model
Climate Change
Change in annual average daily temperature – 2080
(source www.defra.gov/environmnet/climatechange)
Weather extremes
• Hottest temp - 38.5 °C Kent - August 2003
• Warmest month July 2006,
• Coldest Dec 2010
• Highest 2-day total rainfall
395 mm Nov 2009
Seathwaite
• Wettest June ever 2012
% change in precipitation, high
emissions scenario – 2080
(www.defra.gov/environmnet/climatechange)
Flooding
Source http://www.london.gov.uk
We are here
Thames Barrier Closings
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Basket of 6
greenhouse
gases partly
responsible for
global warming
• Includes CO2
and HFCs
Which has greater impact air
transport or RACHP?
Which has greater impact air
transport or RACHP?
Environmental impact of RACHP
• RAC Industry consumes 16% of all UK electricity
• 10% of all greenhouse gas emissions
¾
¼
20
The Challenge
•Directly through reduced leakage and phase down in high
GWP gases
•Indirectly through
1. Reduced need for cooling
2. Increased efficiency
3. Using lower carbon electricity.
UK Carbon
UK Carbon
Footprint
Footprint
2050
1990
An 80% reduction can be
achieved by improving each
of these 3 by 40% i.e. 0.6 x
0.6 x 0.6 = 0.216 or 78.4%
reduction
1. Reducing the need for cooling
1. Reducing the need for cooling
2. Reducing energy use by improving COP
• COP strongly influenced by the
temperature lift between condensing
and evaporating temperatures.
• Temperature lift is a design choice
Optimum
temperature lift from
Trott & Welch, 2002
• Optimum temperature lifts
were derived when
energy prices were
different
• There is scope to revisit
these “norms”.
2. Further COP increases through integration
Integrated heating and cooling
CoPc = Qe/ W = 4/1
CoPh = Qc/ W = 5/1
CoPh+c = (Qc + Qe)/ W =9
Provision of hot water
through de-superheating
3. Using low carbon electricity
Energy and Climate Change Policy
•
The Climate Change Act 80% reduction Carbon
Emission by 2050
•
The Energy Act 2013 decarbonise the energy
supply - through low
carbon technologies and
nuclear power, and through
reducing demand and
improved efficiency.
Achieving the targets - 2050
•
•
Govt has modelled scenarios DECC publication Pathways to 2050
Strategy is maintain demand with reductions achieved through
decarbonisation
Cooling
demand
Renewables
and nuclear
Policy focussed on renewables and nuclear.
• Cost of abatement - small
solar photo voltaic is reported
to be more than £800 /t CO2
• Cost of abatement of
energy efficiency in
refrigeration is much less
£12 &£170/ t CO2.
Strategies for change
Enablers
Economics
• Do the “right thing” for the
“wrong reason” Bostock 2013
Best practice Engineering
EBP- purchasing strategies
• Purchasing is often
based on capital cost
• At the expense of
energy.
• Life cycle techniques!
EBP – evaluate technologies
Consider new & alternative technologies
EBP – the cost of failure
Cost item
Cost
20kg R404A
£
300
Repair cost
£
500
Stock loss
£ 2,000
Carbon cost
£ 1,180
Total
£ 3,980
20kg R404A = 80000 t CO2
EBP – Proactive maintenance
• Proactive Maintenance and Partnerships
Leakage rate
Number of
stores covered
per Service
Engineer
Cost of
leakage per
store relative
to 2000
2000
54%
2
Benchmark
2005
22%
3
2012
7%
5
-51% -72%
EBP – Proactive maintenance
• Proactive Maintenance and Partnerships
Leakage rate
Number of
stores covered
per Service
Engineer
Cost of
leakage per
store relative
to 2000
2000
54%
2
Benchmark
2005
22%
3
2012
7%
5
-51% -72%
Resourcing our profession
Our Industry in the 2020s
Minimum
demand
for cooling
Working
with new
and old
refrigerants
Recycling,
reuse
High
efficiency
heat pump
delivering
cooling
and
heating
Proactive
maint enance
and
operation
Dynamic
control
with
energy
storage
Integration
with
renewables
Sharing
heat with
neighbours
Skills needed for the future
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RACHP fundamentals with practical application
To recognize our importance - economic, environmental, waste etc
To understand and make best use of the IT available
Ability to communicate effectively with customers /end users,
To work closely with other trades and professions – integration
To be prepared to adapt and learn new skills as technologies evolve.
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Industry need greater ownership of both
standards and delivery of education.
New opportunities from the Richards
Review of Apprenticeships.
IOR and the Air Conditioning and
Refrigeration Industry Board are
beginning to gather input from employers
to do this.
Resourcing our profession:
The RACHP Sector
Approx 4,500 enterprises employing
23,000, largely white male
Less than 1% is female.
65% Refrigeration vs 35% AC
90% of businesses recruit less than 10
people over a year.
3% ethnic minority groups, with approx
1.4% India, Pakistan or Bangladesh.
About 63% of the people in the industry
are aged between 35-54 years
45% of people in training are aged
between 16-24 years.
Source IMechE
Attracting young people
• The benefits of a RACHP career are obvious those in
the sector
– Long-term well paid employment
– Career progression - range of functions / employers
– Variety of applications and interesting work
– Opportunity to travel
– Opportunity to have an impact on the environment and
provide a valuable and appreciated service
• Other SET (science, engineering and technology)
sectors are experiencing a skills shortage. The Royal
Academy of Engineering estimate that SET occupations will
need 1,280,000 new entrants by 2020.
– 100,000 graduates
– 60,000 apprentices with Level 3+ qualifications.
•
Sectors will need to compete for the best individuals.
Engineering & Science Students
Reasons
6%
Considered working in
RAC Industry
Not well known
Not glamorous
Inadequate
information
Yes
No
94%
Perceptions on Careers in
RAC Industry
37%
63%
No idea
Idea
Perceived Careers
Physics
Chemistry
Biology
Technician
Design, Building,
Electrical, Mechanical
Engineering
Marketing & Sales
HR Management
Attracting young people
So what can we all do…
For Young Engineers:
– Contact with a local school /college
– Take part in local schools careers days.
– Become an ambassador for the
STEMNET
– IOR Careers in Cooling video on their
website. See www.careersincooling.org.
– Powerpoint presentations
http://www.tomorrowsengineers.org.uk/
– Get involved in the Youth Engagement
Team lead by the IOR.
– Take part in the IOR Young Engineers
Networking events.
For employers:
– Offer work placements
– Employ apprentices and graduates
– Encouraging new engineers to join the
IOR and CIBSE as a student or affiliate
Conclusions
• We are vital – applications, economy,
environment
• If we are to deliver our potential we need
to renew, grow and adapt
• Skills and new blood are key
• We need to work together to deliver
Questions