The Potential for Fusion Power to
Contribute to Sustainable Development
D J Ward
EURATOM/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, UK
This work was jointly funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and by EURATOM
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•
•
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Resource
Emissions
Waste
Safety
Outline
What is Fusion?
The Challenge
How does Fusion Work
What Remains to be Done?
Characteristics of Fusion as a Power Source
–
–
–
–
• Costs and Investment
• Conclusions
Information derived from detailed technical work around power plant and
socio-economic studies. Only summary in each area is given here.
What is Fusion?
•Fusion is the process that produces
energy in the core of the Sun and
stars.
Deuterium
neutron
Helium
•The temperature of the centre of the
Sun is 15 million °C. At this
temperature hydrogen nuclei fuse to
give Helium and Energy. The fusion of
H takes billions of years.
•Fortunately isotopes of hydrogen
(deuterium, tritium) can fuse much more
quickly (seconds).
Tritium
An Example of a Fusion Power Plant
The Challenge
• How can the world continue to develop and poor
economies grow, without excessive “cost”, whether
economic, environmental or other?
3000.0
2500.0
2000.0
1500.0
1000.0
500.0
0.0
1960
1990
2000
Primary Energy Mtoe
1980
2010
2020
Every 2 years growth
in Chinese
consumption exceeds
total UK consumption
Growth in Energy Use is Enormous
United Kingdom
China
India
1970
•Source: BP
Example of Excessive Cost
1
• London smog (pollution event)
• Cost associated with industrialisation but overcome by
regulation
Death
0.8
SO2-Concentration
[ppm]
1000
800
SO2Concentration
0
0.6
0
11 13 15 17
600
9
0.4
7
400
5
0.2
3
December 1952
200
1
Source: Wilkins
Thousands die in single pollution episode.
Number of deaths
Example of Excessive Cost
• Developing country biomass use
generates indoor particulates.
• Up to 2.5 million premature
deaths each year, mostly women
and children
• Cost associated with insufficient
or inappropriate development
Source: WHO
Big Questions
•How will this rising demand continue to be met?
•Do we have to get out of fossil fuels? (presently 80%
of supply)
•What is the impact of the rising demand (on health
etc)
•Can fusion contribute?
How Does Fusion Work?
How Are High Temperatures Achieved?
Insulation
10cm
Glass fibre
10,000 Watts
0.001 W/mK
1m
Magnetic Field
10 million Watts
(RF waves, neutral beams)
JET
Thickness
0.04 W/mK
120 million oC
House
Thermal
Conductivity
20oC
Heating
Power
Temperature
Basic Concept of a Magnetic Confinement Fusion Device
A large vacuum tube to hold the gas.
A heating method, e.g. microwave.
Large magnets to stop the heat getting out.
Of course, the practical reality is much more complex
Joint European Torus (JET)
Currently the world’s best fusion research facility
Operated by UKAEA as a facility for European scientists
In JET a Fusion Plasma Lasts Around 1 Minute
Limited by heating
of magnets since
they are not
superconductors in
JET
JET produces up
to 16 MW of fusion
power
What Remains to de Done?
JET
(now)
EU
16MW
ITER
(next)
EU, Japan,
USA, Russia,
China, S.
Korea, India
500MW
Where Next?
Power Plant
(later)
3,000MW
• ITER will demonstrate power station-scale levels of
power, designed at 500 MW fusion, 30 times more
than JET.
• This is severely challenging for power handling
components, development needed.
• After this is solved for minutes and hours, we need
NEW MATERIALS which can survive months and
years in the hostile fusion environment.
Resource Availability
What Fuels Do We Actually Need?
•Unlike the Sun, we use isotopes of hydrogen
called deuterium and tritium because this is
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times easier
to do!
•Deuterium is in all water. Tritium must be made in
the fusion plant from lithium.
•The 2 fuels are deuterium and lithium.
Paradox of Increasing Energy Demand but Reducing Carbon Emissions
Lithium
compound
How Much Fuel is Available?
• Deuterium 1/6700 atoms of Hydrogen
•1 litre of water contains 0.033g of deuterium
•Energy equivalent of 10GJ or 280 litres of oil.
• Enough deuterium for billions of years of energy supply
•Tritium, from lithium.
•Lithium in 1 laptop battery enough for lifetime personal
electricity needs (240,000kWh)
•Land based lithium reserves for thousands to millions of years.
•FUEL RESERVES ARE ENORMOUS AND NOT AN
ISSUE
10000000
1000000
100000
10000
1000
100
10
1
Coal
U
Breeder
Lithium
Ultimate Fuel Resource
Lower resource
Upper resource
gas
New Resource
oil
Source: WEC, BP, USGS, WNA
Large resources in coal, fission breeder and
fusion. Solar provides a large resource as well.
Years of World energy supply
Emissions
d
(K
0,
P
0
20
40
60
80
100
-4
o-
21
si
on
2000
0)
fi s
-1
rm
4)
he
ot
(C
ge
U
2)
0,
22
-4
n-
(K
(R
al
al
co
23
8,
23
Th
2)
n
s
io
ga
s
fu
(C
-1
H
)
ce
-3
u
ed
4,
R
d
V
en
a
til
t io
n
1500
Radiological Hazard of Different Sources of Energy
o
fo
Source: UNSCEAR, NRPB
Food column is indicative of background effects – not
directly comparable to others. Reduced ventilation is
measured effect of double glazing on indoor radon.
manSv/GWyear
3000
Hazard Including Other Risks
1000
900
800
700
600
fusion
(radioactivity)
500
Source: WHO, UNSCEAR, NRPB, EC (ExternE)
coal
(radioactivity)
400
fission
(radioactivity)
300
food
(radioactivity)
200
coal (air
pollution)
100
0
biomass in
developing
countries (air
pollution)
Conventional energy hazards are enormously
greater than fusion hazards.
Relative harm
Waste
0
100
200
300
500
600
Time after final shutdown (y)
400
700
Coal
PWR
EFR A
EFR B
Model A
Model B
Model C
900
Model D
Model AB
800
1000
Potential Harm from Waste Materials
1.0E+01
1.0E+00
1.0E-01
1.0E-02
1.0E-03
1.0E-04
1.0E-05
1.0E-06
1.0E-07
Source: PPCS
Radiological hazard from fusion materials decays
rapidly, with half life of around 10 years. Note very
theoretical definition of harm.
R a d io to x ic ity In d e x (In g e s tio n )
Safety
Peak Temperatures in Postulated Bounding Accident
Very conservative
assumptions: complete and
prolonged loss of all
cooling, with no active
safety systems, nor any
other intervention.
No melting.
Releases in Accident
A
Model
18.1 mSv
1.2 mSv
Dose
• Bounding accident analysis, combines the worst
outcome in each area.
• Releases still small and doses to the public small.
B
Compared with approximately 4 mSv average
background in EU
Source: PPCS
Costs and Investment
COMPASS
1.00E+04
CMOD
DIIID
1.00E+06
JET
ITER
1.00E+08
1.00E+10
Power Plant
ITER98
Costs Reduce Through R&D and Scale
10000
1000
100
10
1
1.00E+02
Fusion Power (W)
Power which would be produced if non-DT devices were to use DT
GW scale devices projected to be in few $/W range
Capital Cost per W ($/Wp)
Fission
Wind
Fusion
lower
upper
Direct Cost Comparisons
20
15
10
5
0
CCGT
Source: “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity” IEA, 1998 Update, PPCS
Large uncertainty inherent in projections. Include
projected fuel price increases but no carbon tax. Wind is
near term technology but no standby or storage costs.
coe(!cents/kWh)
New Energy Systems
• Introduction of new energy sources is essential.
• This requires effort at all points in the chain Research, Development, Demonstration and
Deployment is essential.
• Fusion (if successful) is a good option for largescale deployment globally, because of its
enormous fuel resource and favourable safety
and environmental characteristics.
4.E+06
3.E+06
2.E+06
1.E+06
0.E+00
Source: IEA, BP
10000
Is Enough Being Done?
Public R&D
Other
Fusion
Renew ables
Fission
Fossil
8000
electricity (ex fuel)
Conservation
renew ables
coal
6000
Public Energy R&D
gas
oil
4000
2000
0
Public Sector Energy R&D is a negligible fraction of the world energy
spend. Fusion is a small part of that negligible fraction. (Note the data
for 2009 is skewed by one off US stimulus package – not shown here)
Estimated Energy Market (M$)
Annual spend (£)
1.20E+11
1.00E+11
8.00E+10
6.00E+10
4.00E+10
2.00E+10
0.00E+00
UK electricity
BP turnover
zUK Parliament Science and
Technology Committee 2003
“expenditure on energy research
has been pitiful”
z Overall energy R&D is far too
low - less than 0.3% of market –
to achieve a transformation in
the energy markets.
Is Enough Being Done - UK?
UK Fusion
1980
Is Fusion on Track?
2030
Cumulative Funding
Demo
Demo
Fusion Energy Development
Plan, 2003 (MFE)
2025
US Example
Magnetic Fusion
Engineering Act
of 1980
2005
35000
30000
25000
20000
2000
CCFE is the fusion research arm of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority
Demo
Demo
2035
ITER
ITER
2020
ITER
FED
1990
15000
2015
Actual
2010
10000
0
1985
Fusion Development is on Budget.
1995
5000
Schmidt PPPL
$M, FY02
CO2 constraint 650ppm
How Can Fusion Contribute?
Business as usual - Global
Example of global energy scenario modelling using a model called EFDA/TIMES
Not a prediction!
Conclusions
•World energy consumption is likely to more than double even
if OECD countries cap their energy consumption.
•Continuing business as usual implies a large increase in CO2
emissions and other pollutants globally.
•There is an enormous potential market for low pollution, low
carbon energy sources, such as fusion.
•Fusion has very large benefits in terms of resources,
environmental impact, safety and waste materials.
•We must focus on demonstrating fusion as a power source,
ensuring these benefits are optimised, at the same time
ensuring costs are reasonable.
•The world is not putting sufficient effort into energy R&D if we
are to achieve the transformation in energy markets that is
needed.