States on Steroids: The Continuing
American Climate Odyssey
Barry G. Rabe
University of Virginia/Brookings Institution
October 18, 2008
Carbon Pricing & Environmental Federalism
Conference—Queen’s University
The Conventional Wisdom about
American Climate Policy
Post-Kyoto, America the EVIL EMPIRE
Post 2008 election, All will Change
Signs that Rip Van Winkle is
Awakening in Washington
Courts are handing down decisions
EPA is blocking state action
2005, 2007 Energy bills PACKED with
incentives and subsidies for every form of
energy
Congress is talking—a lot
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Congressional Hearings on Environmental Policy
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148
140
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But the real action remains in the
statehouses
Renewable Portfolio Standards
Cap-and-Trade Programs
Endorse California Waiver on Vehicles
Public Benefit Funds
Governors as Climate Superheroes
Renewable Portfolio Standards
Regional Initiatives
Vehicle Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Standards
Public Benefit Funds
Lessons from the States
Framing allows tailored strategies:
-Localized climate concerns
-Localized economic development
opportunities
-Localized concerns about energy
costs/reliability
Potential advantages from early-action
Potential rent-seeking opportunities
Credit-claim and blame avoidance converge
(2050?)
-Agency entrepreneurs yield to large coalitions
More Lessons from the States
Policy adoption inverse to expert
opinion
Everybody loves regulation (RPS can be
sold anywhere)
Cap-and-trade occupies a middle ground
Carbon taxes off-limits, except in stealth
form (PBF)
States generally providing the blend of
policies the public wants
The Day After Enactment: Can
Climate Policy be Implemented
Conventional Wisdom: Market-based
policies self-implement once pols have
courage (Sulfur dioxide)
Experience to date: Vastly more complex,
even when political will and administrative
capacity are high
Missed deadlines
Missed targets
Administrative conflict/chaos
Constant threat of litigation
Cap-and-Trade: Tales of RGGI
Optimal circumstances: Broad political
support and unusual partnering between
environment and energy ministries
Experience: Four years of hard negotiations
Offsets, Safety-Valves, Auctioning , Rebates
all REMAIN contentious
The real issue of leakage
The lack of FIT with other programs (RPS)
The periodic threat of secession
RPS: The Good, Bad & Ugly
Some big success stories: Texas
Some big problems:
Hubris (California)
Defining renewables (Pennsylvania)
Hoarding benefits within state
Greater costs/Fewer benefits
Siting and NIMBY concerns (Massachusetts)
Transmission
Warfare among proponents of various
renewables
Carbon Taxes
The Consensus among Policy Wonks
The pressure to CUT gasoline taxes
Framing: Public Benefits Funds/Social
Benefit Charges
The Chris Dodd Profile in Courage
Award
Trying to do it ALL: California
Politicians of all parties/units racing to top to
be a WORLD CLIMATE LEADER
California trying to do everything—sans
carbon tax
Huge implementation challenges
Competing agencies (CARB, CEPA, CEC, CPUC…)
Push-back against cap-and-trade (“More Wall
St…”)
Limited ability to control neighbors
Policies lose allure as costs increase/deadlines
near
The 44th President and the 111th
Congress
Can Climate Compete Against Other
Issues?
Can Congress Govern the Climate?
Can EPA Govern the Climate?
Can we create new Climate Institutions
(ironically, using Federal Reserve Board
as a model)?
And what about Federalism?
Half a nation: Actively engaged
Half a nation: Essentially disengaged
American federalism: Badly broken,
now more than ever
Table 1. State Climate Policy Adoption and Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends
Emission Growth Trends (1990-2005)
High (>16%)
High
12-20
policies
Levels of State
Climate Policy
Adoption
Low
0-11
policies
Arizona
Colorado
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Minnesota
Montana
Nevada
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oregon
Rhode Island
Utah
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Virginia
Low (<16%)
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
Pennsylvania
Texas
District of Columbia
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Ohio
South Dakota
West Virginia
Wyoming