COAMPS James D. Doyle, Rich Hodur, Yi Jin, Jon Moskaitis
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COAMPSâTC Diagnostics James D. Doyle, Rich Hodur, Yi Jin, Jon Moskaitis NRL, Monterey, CA C. Amerault, S. Chen, J. Cummings1, E. Hendricks, R. Hodur2, T. Holt, H. Jin, C.-S. Liou, M. Peng, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, S. Wang Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 1Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis, MS 2SAIC, Monterey, CA 1 COAMPS-TC Diagnostic Capabilities •Track and intensity diagnostics • Single storms, multiple forecasts, suite of forecasts •Model field based diagnostics • Single forecasts diagnostics, temporal tendencies, differences between runs •Qualitative structure diagnostics and comparisons • Comparisons with satellite imagery, with other simulations, with CIRA winds •Specialized diagnostics • Soundings, comparison with Doppler radar composites (w/ R. Rogers, HRD) •Synthetic satellite diagnostics • Qualitative comparisons (Collaboration w/ Grasso and DeMaria at CIRA) •Ocean coupling diagnostics •Adjoint based diagnostics • Track (larger-scale) and intensity (nested adjoint) initial condition sensitivities •Real-time model diagnostics • Display of atmosphere and ocean fields, tracks, multi-model tracks • Specialized diagnostics (shear, TPW) • Verification of track and intensity 2 COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Best-track Forecast track Best-track position Forecast position Earl (al072010): Track COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Earl (al072010): Track error COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Earl (al072010): Distance traveled error MAE ME COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Earl (al072010): Position mean error Mean error in meridional direction (nm) Cardinal direction decomposition N E W S Mean error in zonal direction (nm) COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Earl (al072010): Position mean error Mean error in along-track direction (nm) Storm-relative directional decomposition Ahead Right Left Behind Mean error in cross-track direction (nm) COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Earl (al072010): Intensity Best-track Forecast intensity Intensity (kt) Forecast initial intensity Date COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Earl (al072010): Intensity error MAE ME COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Min slp (mb) Earl (al072010): Min sea-level pressure Best-track Forecast min slp Forecast initial min slp Date COAMPS-TC: Track + intensity diagnostics Earl (al072010): Min sea-level pressure error MAE ME COAMPS-TC 2008/2009 HFIP Retrospective Forecasts W. Atlantic and E. Pacific Homogeneous Intensity Forecast Error Wind Forecast Error (kts) vs. Retro Mean Absolute Error (knots) Mean Absolute Error (knots) Wind Forecast Error (kts) vs. Ops Bias (dashed) Mean error (solid) Number of Cases • COAMPS-TC Retro Intensity Skill is Better than the HWRF, GFDN, GFDL, and AHW for the 30-84h forecasts 33 COAMPS-TC 2008/2009 HFIP Retrospective Forecasts W. Atlantic Forecast Error Storm Relative Mean Track Error Homogeneous Track Forecast Error (nm) Fast Left Right Slow • COAMPS-TC Track Error Similar to NOGAPS. • Relative Track Error to the Right and Slow for COAMPS-TC. 34 COAMPS-TC Dianosis of Multi-Model HFIP Forecasts Homogeneous Statistics Cross and Along Track Forecast Error Intensity Error Statistical analysis to provide insight into the track and intensity forecast characteristics (e.g., consistency etc.) 35 COAMPS-TC Diagnostics Track Error Related to Initial Intensity of TC (2009) 200 INT12 12 h INT24 24 h Linear (INT12) Linear (12 h) Linear (INT24) Linear (24 h) Track Error (nm) 150 100 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Initial Intensity (knots) • 12-h and 24-h track errors are worse when initial winds < 60 kts. • Sensitivity to the vortex initialization (synthetic observations). • Possible solutions: Dynamic initialization Improved TC microphysics 36 COAMPS-TC Diagnostics Bias in the TC Intensity Forecasts (2009) 25 Wind Speed Bias (KT) 20 W. Atlantic COAMPS-TC Real-time HWRF 15 10 5 0 0 12 24 (40) (36) (29) 36 48 72 96 120 (10) (6) -5 -10 (23) (20) Forecast Hour (16) • Weaken systems during first 12-24 h, then strengthens. • Possible Solutions: TC Dynamic Initialization Air-sea coupling, improved physics 37 COAMPS-TC Diagnostics Sensitivity to Lateral Boundary Conditions COAMPS-TC Track Errors for Hurricane Bill (2009) Lateral Boundary Conditions from NOGAPS 3D-Var and NOGAPS 4D-Var /16 /16 /15 /14 /13 /12 /11 /10 /8 /8 /7 /# Cases • Track error is improved markedly using NOGAPS 4D-Var. • Track skill is sensitive to whether NOGAPS or GFS is used. • Improved global BCs lead to improved track forecasts. 38 COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Outer grid 500 mb wind field forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Outer grid 500 mb wind field forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Outer grid 500 mb wind field forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Outer grid 500 mb wind field forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Outer grid 500 mb wind field forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Outer grid 500 mb wind field forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Outer grid 500 mb wind field forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Outer grid 500 mb wind field forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Outer grid 500 mb wind field forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Outer grid 500 mb wind field forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Outer grid 500 mb wind field forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Colin (al042010): Tau = 120 – Tau = 0 temperature field COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Colin (al042010): Tau = 120 – Tau = 0 temperature field COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Colin (al042010): Tau = 120 – Tau = 0 temperature field COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Colin (al042010): Tau = 120 – Tau = 0 temperature field COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Colin (al042010): Tau = 120 – Tau = 0 temperature field COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Colin (al042010): Tau = 120 – Tau = 0 temperature field COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Colin (al042010): Tau = 120 – Tau = 0 temperature field COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Colin (al042010): Tau = 120 – Tau = 0 temperature field COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Colin (al042010): Tau = 120 – Tau = 0 temperature field COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Colin (al042010): Tau = 120 – Tau = 0 temperature field COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Colin (al042010): Tau = 120 – Tau = 0 temperature field COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Colin (al042010): Tau = 120 – Tau = 0 vertical profiles Warming during forecast Cooling during forecast Relative humidity difference (%) Pressure (mb) Pressure (mb) Temperature difference (deg C) Moistening during forecast Tropical mean Subtropical mean COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Precipitable water difference field ‘New NAVDAS’ forecast – ‘Old NAVDAS’ forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Precipitable water difference field ‘New NAVDAS’ forecast – ‘Old NAVDAS’ forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Precipitable water difference field ‘New NAVDAS’ forecast – ‘Old NAVDAS’ forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Precipitable water difference field ‘New NAVDAS’ forecast – ‘Old NAVDAS’ forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Precipitable water difference field ‘New NAVDAS’ forecast – ‘Old NAVDAS’ forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Precipitable water difference field ‘New NAVDAS’ forecast – ‘Old NAVDAS’ forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Precipitable water difference field ‘New NAVDAS’ forecast – ‘Old NAVDAS’ forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Precipitable water difference field ‘New NAVDAS’ forecast – ‘Old NAVDAS’ forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Precipitable water difference field ‘New NAVDAS’ forecast – ‘Old NAVDAS’ forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Precipitable water difference field ‘New NAVDAS’ forecast – ‘Old NAVDAS’ forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Celia (ep042010): Precipitable water difference field ‘New NAVDAS’ forecast – ‘Old NAVDAS’ forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Control New initial vortex Megi (wp152010): Inner grid 10-m wind field comparison COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Control New initial vortex Megi (wp152010): Inner grid 10-m wind field comparison COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Control New initial vortex Megi (wp152010): Inner grid 10-m wind field comparison COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Control New initial vortex Megi (wp152010): Inner grid 10-m wind field comparison COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Control New initial vortex Megi (wp152010): Inner grid 10-m wind field comparison COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Control New initial vortex Megi (wp152010): Inner grid 10-m wind field comparison COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Control New initial vortex Megi (wp152010): Inner grid 10-m wind field comparison COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Control New initial vortex Megi (wp152010): Inner grid 10-m wind field comparison COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Control New initial vortex Megi (wp152010): Inner grid 10-m wind field comparison COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Control New initial vortex Megi (wp152010): Inner grid 10-m wind field comparison COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Control New initial vortex Megi (wp152010): Inner grid 10-m wind field comparison COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Updated microphysics Control Celia (ep042010): Solid condensate mixing ratio comparison Tau = 72 h forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Updated microphysics Control Celia (ep042010): Solid condensate mixing ratio comparison Tau = 72 h forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Updated microphysics Control Celia (ep042010): Solid condensate mixing ratio comparison Tau = 72 h forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Updated microphysics Control Celia (ep042010): Solid condensate mixing ratio comparison Tau = 72 h forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Updated microphysics Control Celia (ep042010): Solid condensate mixing ratio comparison Tau = 72 h forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Updated microphysics Control Celia (ep042010): Solid condensate mixing ratio comparison Tau = 72 h forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Updated microphysics Control Celia (ep042010): Solid condensate mixing ratio comparison Tau = 72 h forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Updated microphysics Control Celia (ep042010): Solid condensate mixing ratio comparison Tau = 72 h forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Updated microphysics Control Celia (ep042010): Solid condensate mixing ratio comparison Tau = 72 h forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Updated microphysics Control Celia (ep042010): Solid condensate mixing ratio comparison Tau = 72 h forecast COAMPS-TC: Field diagnostics Updated microphysics Control Celia (ep042010): Solid condensate mixing ratio comparison Tau = 72 h forecast COAMPS-TC: Field Diagnostics Qualitative comparisons with observations Objective: Identify biases in COAMPS analyses/predictions of the convective distribution and surface wind field Microwave BT observation Danny Rick TC rapidly weakening because of moderate vertical wind shear Weak TC in environment of moderate vertical wind shear + + COAMPS 12 h reflectivity forecast + Microwave BT observation + Surface center + Bright colors indicate deep convection COAMPS 79 h reflectivity forecast COAMPS TCs consistently too resistant to vertical wind shear COAMPS-TC: Field Diagnostics Qualitative comparisons with observations Objective: Identify biases in COAMPS analyses/predictions of the convective distribution and surface wind field COAMPS surface wind analysis Melor: 00z 2 Oct 2009 CIRA surface wind analysis based on satellite obs Maximum wind at larger radius in COAMPS 34 kt wind at larger radius in COAMPS For intense TCs, COAMPS analysis wind field is consistently too broad COAMPS-TC Cloud Top Height Control (NRL), New (NRL), and WRF Thompson Microphysics Tested for Igor Control Thompson New • Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of forecast cloud top heights with satellite fields show that the Control (NRL) microphysics over-estimates cloud top heights. • Thompson scheme implemented in COAMPS reduces cloud ice significantly, confirming the important role of the microphysics scheme for cloud forecasts. • The NRL New microphysics in COAMPS-TC shows much improved cloud forecasts. 97 COAMPS-TC Cloud Top Height Initial Comparison with Satellite IR Imagery valid at 1200 UTC 13 Sept 2010 Control Thompson New Both the Thompson and NRL (New) remove the upper tropospheric cloud bias significantly and compare better with satellite imagery. 98 COAMPS-TC Skew-T Sounding Comparisons with observed sounding for detailed vertical structure Control Thompson New Magenta: OBS Black: COAMPS-TC 024 48 H HH 72 H • Soundings and dropsondes are used to diagnose COAMPS-TC performance. • The Corpus Christi station is used here for demonstration purposes. • COAMPS-TC simulated well the time evolution of vertical temperature profiles. • More work is needed to improve the vertical distribution of moisture. • The New (NRL) microphysics improves the upper-level temperatures. 99 COAMPS-TC Physical Parameterization Evaluation using Doppler OBS Vortex-scale fields – winds at 2 km altitude (72 h forecast valid at 00 Z Aug 29 2005, 3-km) Control 150 New 90 80 150 70 100 100 50 50 Doppler OBS* 70 150 60 60 100 50 40 50 40 50 30 30 0 16 Height (km) 14 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150 50 100 150 Vortex-scale fields – Azimuthally average winds for Katrina Control 16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 New 14 12 10 8 8 6 6 2 70 12 10 4 18 50 Doppler OBS* 14 70 12 60 10 50 40 30 30 6 20 4 10 10 0 2 10 20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 80 8 4 2 16 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 *The Doppler Observations were provided by R. Rogers of HRD. 100 COAMPS-TC NRL and CIRA Collaboration through HFIP: Synthetic GOES Imagery for Model Evaluation and Development Hurricane Hanna (2008) tested (initialized 1200 UTC 1 Sept 2008) Number of Occurrence OBS: 0000UTC 4 Sept Histogram CNTL Mod-IN OBS BT (K) CNTL (66 h fcst) Mod-IN (66 h fcst) • The synthetic brightness temperature (BT) products provide an effective method for direct and quantitative evaluation and guidance for improvement in model physics. • Tests using modified ice nucleation equation reduced the cloud ice bias and the NRL new microphysics corrected this bias. • Model evaluation efforts are underway for 2010 storms 101 COAMPS-TC COAMPS-TC diagnostic files provided to CIRA in support of HFIP Diagnostic files of 2010 Atlantic storms available at the COAMPS-TC website • COAMPS-TC model output was used to produce diagnostic files. • The code developed for COAMPS-TC used standard Fortran 90 and can be easily port to other platforms. • These files are now available to view and download at the COAMPS-TC web site. 102 COAMPS-TC: New Capabilities Coupled Air-Sea Forecasts of Hurricane Bill Air-Ocean Coupling in COAMPS-TC Predicts SST Cool Wake of 2-3°C Intensity Error (kts) 18-23 Aug Uncoupled Coupled SST Change (72 h) Microwave Satellite Derived SST Shows 2-3°C Cool Wake Similar to the Coupled Model Intensity Error Markedly Improved using Coupled Model Evaluation of air-sea interaction for real-time forecasts of TCs in W. Pacific during ITOP currently ongoing. 103 COAMPS-TC Adjoint Diagnostics Super Typhoon Lupit (W. Pacific, 2009) • Adjoint allows for the mathematically rigorous calculation of forecast sensitivity of a response function to changes in the initial state Typhoon Lupit • COAMPS® Moist Adjoint Model • Dynamics: nonhydrostatic, nested • Physics: PBL, surface flux, microphysics, Kuo • Ocean: Two-way coupled mixed layer model • Response Function, J: Adaptive, multiple metrics 00UTC 20 October 2009 48-h Sensitivity to q at 700 mb 00UTC 20 October 2009 104 COAMPS-TC Adjoint Diagnostics Super Typhoon Lupit (W. Pacific, 2009) Intensification Stage 12-h Sensitivity to q at 500 m 12-h Sensitivity to z at 500 m 1200 UTC 15 October 2009 Adjoints can help identify key synoptic features in initial state that impact track and can help identify structures and key variables for intensification. 105 COAMPS-TC COAMPS-TC Web Site Real-time TC prediction and verification in support of HFIP project (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc) Storm names Monthly Calendar • Unique and convenient TC sorting methods based on storm lists and dates • A monthly calendar with all available storm forecasts • Easy navigating features: animaiton, frame by frame, different date groups and variables, and at different scales (from regional, mesoscale, to vortex scales) 106 COAMPS-TC Real-Time Verification and Structure Diagnostics Forecasts for Hurricane Igor initialized at 1200 UTC 11 Sept 2010 Track Maximum Wind Speed 10m Wind 200Pa-850Pa Wind Shear Minimum Sea Level Pressure 500Pa-850Pa Averaged RH and Wind BEST OFCL 107 COAMPS-TC Comparison of Forecast TPW with Satellite Data Forecasts for Hurricane Igor initialized at 1200 UTC 11 Sept 2010 Regional Scale (45 km Resolution) Mesoscale Scale (15 km) (Courtesy of University of Wisconsin) Vortex Scale (5 km) • Direct comparison of total precipitable water (TPW) fields with the same color scale as the satellite plots • Extend the maximum value of the color bar for small scale features 108 COAMPS-TC Wish List and Future Plans for Diagnostics •Detailed multi-model comparison capability • Comparison of models including regional and global • Comparisons of model initial states (and observation sets used) (w/ EMC) •More readily exploit observations • Single forecast diagnostics, temporal tendencies, differences between runs •Nested adjoint-based diagnostics (track, intensity, structure) • Initial condition sensitivity, insight into DA issues, targeted observations •Routine verification with remote sensing observations • Synthetic satellite imagery, verification in radiance space •Structure verification • Quantitative verification of RMW, size, asymmetries, organization • Comparison with Doppler radar observations (collaboration w/ HRD). •Community based diagnostic toolbox • A suite of diagnostic tools interoperable for multiple TC systems. • More collaborations: HRD (Rogers et al. ), CIRA (DeMaria, Grasso), EMC 109 COAMPS-TC Overview Current and Future Capabilities Atmospheric Analysis • Complex Data Quality Control • Relocation of TC in background • Synthetic Observations: TC vortex • NAVDAS 3DVAR: u, v, T, q, TC option • Initialization: Digital Filter Option • TC Balance Step: (underway) Atmospheric Model • Numerics: Nonhydrostatic, Scheme C, Moving Nests, Sigma-z, Flexible Lateral BCs • Physics: PBL, Convection, Explicit Moist Physics, Radiation, Surface Layer • TC Tools: Moving nests, dissipative heating, spray parameterization, shallow convection Ocean Analysis • Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) System • 2D OI: SST • 3D MVOI: T, S, SSH, Sea Ice, Currents • Complex Data Quality Control • Initialization: Stability check Ocean Models • NRL Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) • Numerics: Hydrostatic, Scheme C, Nested Grids, Hybrid Sigma/z • Physics: Mellor-Yamada 2.5 • Wave Models (WWIII and SWAN) • Generalized Coupling Layer (ESMF) Atmospheric Ensembles Ocean Ensembles • Initial Cond. Perturbation: ET, EnKF • Physics Perturbations: PBL, Convection… • Lateral BCs: Global ensemble (NOGAPS) • Probabilistic Products: Intensity, track… • Initial Cond. Perturbation: ET • Physics Perturbations: PBL, Fluxes… • Lateral BCs: NCOM • Probabilistic Products: Mixed layer, OHC.. The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) is a registered trademark of NRL 110
