GOES-R3 Proposal # 82
1) Project Name and PIs
Proxy Radiance Data Testbed: Ensemble Simulation of GOES-R Proxy Radiance Data from CONUS
Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts, Product Demonstration and Assessment at the Hazardous Weather
Testbed GOES-R Proving Ground
PI: Prof. Ming Xue, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) and School of Meteorology,
University of Oklahoma, mxue@ou.edu.
Co-PIs: Drs. Keith Brewster and Fanyou Kong, CAPS, University of Oklahoma
Main collaborators: Jason Otkin, CIMSS, U. Wisconsin-Madison
Dr. Louis Grasso, CIRA, Colorado State University
Dr. Fuzhong Weng, NOAA/NESDIS
Steve Weiss, NOAA/SPC, Jack Kain and David Turner, NOAA/NSSL
2) Short Project Description
This project is a collaboration between three institutions: CAPS, CIMSS, and CIRA. The proposed
project will employ 4-km storm-scale ensemble forecasts (SSEFs) produced by the Center for Analysis
and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma (OU) for the NOAA Hazardous Weather
Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiments. Utilizing national supercomputing resources, synthetic imagery will
be generated in real-time, for several infrared channels from 10-15 ensemble members, at hourly
intervals. Three radiative transfer (RTM) model packages will be employed in the project. They include
the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) package from NESDIS, the package based on the
Successive Order of Interaction (SOI) RTM from CIMSS, University of Wisconsin, and an RTM package
from CIRA of Colorado State University. They will be used to generate synthetic brightness temperatures
for selected Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and current GOES infrared channels. Through
collaborations, a better understanding of the interaction between cloud microphysics and radiative transfer
modeling will be sought so as to provide insights for improving the CRTM system, which is part of the
operational data assimilation systems at NCEP. The synthetic imagery will be made available in near realtime to the HWT as part of the GOES-R Proving Ground. The project will help familiarize operational
forecasters, numerical modelers and physical scientists with the capabilities of GOES-R.
3) Summary of Accomplishments (Year 1 / FY11 and beginning of Year 2 / FY12)
CAPS installed the NESDIS CRTM package (v2.0.5) on local computers and on NICS Kraken, a
Cray XT5 supercomputer used by the CAPS storm-scale ensemble forecasting (SSEF), in late 2011. One
CAPS research associate visited NESDIS in January 2012 for two weeks to further learn CRTM. Interface
programs were developed in early 2012 which allow CAPS SSEF post-processing programs to call
CRTM subroutines to generate synthetic ABI and GOES infrared brightness temperatures and radiances.
The programs were tested on Kraken under the realtime SSEF running environment using 2011 CAPS
HWT Spring Experiment case data. Figure 1 shows example synthetic imagery for all GOES-R ABI
infrared channels using April 27, 2011 Alabama super tornado case computed from SSEF member 26 25h forecast dataset.
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Figure 1. Simulated GOES-R IR channels brightness temeperature imagery using CRTM from a 25h WRF
ARW forecast valid at 0100 UTC April 28, 2011. The forecast composite reflectivity is also given.
The CIMSS team installed its Successive Order of Interaction (SOI) RTM on NICS Kraken also. A
program that computes the effective particle diameters for each hydrometeor species predicted by a given
cloud microphysical parameterization scheme was updated to account for the inclusion of new
parameterization schemes in recent versions of the WRF model. Shell scripts were also written to
efficiently process WRF model output from multiple model output times and ensemble members.
The CIRA team worked on updating the CIRA RTM codes with the recent version of CRTM which
has been used to get optical depth and with the implementation of the routines that Jason Otkin of CIMSS
provided to obtain number concentrations for each cloud microphysics scheme. TB comparison runs
between the CIRA RTM and CRTM were performed. The figure below shows TB simulations for
GOES-R ABI 10.35 µm (21 May 2011) and GOES-13 10.7 µm (27 April 2012).
Figure 2. Simulated brightness temperatures at GOES-R ABI 10.35 µm (left: 1700 UTC on 21
May 2011) and at GOES-13 10.7 µm (right: 1700 UTC on 27 April 2012).
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CRTM has been compiled with three different compilers and tested on real cases, and the results have
been checked by Paul van Delst (JCSDA). In the CRTM run time comparisons, significant compiler
dependence is found that gfortran-compiled CRTM run is 3-5 times slower, while pgf90 produced the
fastest codes.
Tests on CAPS implementation of CRTM showed very high computational efficiency; the calls to the
CRTM subroutines were directly inserted inside the CAPS SSEF post-processing programs, which
support parallel processing and avoid extra data I/O. This allows for efficient generation of GOES
synthetic imagery products in realtime during the NOAA 2012 Spring Experiment. In order to fully
utilize the high efficiency of CAPS SSEF post-processing programs, CIRA re-wrote their RTM so that it
can be called as a subroutine from within CAPS SSEF post-processing programs. The new subroutine
was tested at CIRA for both the small tiled and for the entire domain data from CAPS WRF-ARW
WSM6 output. The tested new code was turned into one library file that is directly compiled into the
CAPS post-processing programs. The emissivity data from Eva Borbas' global surface emissivity dataset
were also provided to CAPS CRTM so it uses the same emissivity as the CIRA-RTM.
All three RTMs were run during the 2012 HWT Spring Experiment, generating realtime synthetic
brightness temperature and ensemble products for GOES-13 10.7µm for all 28 CAPS SSEF members and
made available to HWT participants for evaluation as part of the GOES-R Proving Ground. Feedback
from the participants was positive. Many people stated that the forecast imagery allowed them to
efficiently examine the evolution of the simulated cloud field and to determine how much the model
ensemble was diverging from reality at later forecast times. Figure 3 shows example products generated
in realtime during 2012 NOAA HWT Spring Experiment, using all three RTMs. Full products are also
demonstrated on CAPS realtime forecast website
(http://www.caps.ou.edu/~fkong/sub_atm/spring12.html).
a
b
c
d
e
f
Figure 3. Synthetic brightness temperature products of GOES-13 10.7µm channel generated from CAPS
SSEF 24 h forecast valid at 00 UTC May 31, 2012. (a), (b), and (c) are brightness temperature computed
using CRTM, CIMSS, and CIRA RTMs, respectively; (d), (e), and (f) are ensemble mean, probability of
brightness temperature below -32C, and probability of brightness temperature below -52C, respectively,
from the CRTM ensemble.
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4) Plans for Year 3 / FY13
During Year 3/FY13, the accuracy of the synthetic brightness temperature datasets (run for limited
number of channels and ensemble members) from the 2012 HWT will be evaluated through comparison
with real GOES-13 observations. A detailed inspection of the datasets will provide valuable information
about the ability of the forward radiative transfer models to produce accurate brightness temperatures for
a wide range of atmospheric conditions. The accuracy of the cloud microphysics schemes will also be
evaluated. Results from this study could be used to enhance the capabilities of the forward radiative
transfer models. Synthetic data for more channels and ensemble members will be run at full scale in
realtime during the 2013 HWT Spring Experiment and provided to the HWT GOES-R Proving Ground
facility for evaluation. Ensemble post-processing will be fully implemented to provide realtime
probabilistic predictions and diagnostics of the brightness temperature for various channels. In addition,
CIMSS will continue OSSE experiments started in FY02 while CAPS will start develop EnKF-based data
assimilation capabilities that combine brightness temperature assimilation with radar data, at convectionallowing resolutions (~4 km). The following are the expected milestones:\
 Evaluate performance of RTM and model parameterization schemes, and try to understand their
interactions and deficiencies.
 Further refine the RTM packages, in particular the aspects related to microphysics, based on
evaluations of previous years’ results.
 Optimize the TRMs for better computational efficiency and for possible use as efficient observation
operators in data assimilation systems.
 Carry out a full-scale demonstration through the GOES-R Proving Ground during 2013 HWT Spring
Experiment, and involve other scientists in the GOES-R project.
 Developed EnKF data capabilities and carry out OSSE assimilation studies at CIMSS and CAPS to
evaluate the impact of ABI water vapor radiance observations in regional-scale and convectionallowing-resolution models.
 Prepare results for journal publications.
Proposed Budget for Year 3 / FY13 (total $246K for CAPS, CIMSS and CIRA)
The CAPS portion will be used to support the PIs and Sr. personnel at 2.5 months, and mid-level
scientists at 7 months. Fringe benefit rate is 46.2% and the overhead rate is 26% based on CIMMS
Cooperative Agreement. Additional costs for travel, materials and publication are included.
The UW-CIMSS portion of the budget will be used to support J. Otkin (39%). Fringe rates are set at
41.0% by the University of Wisconsin to cover health and retirement benefits. IDC rate is 50.5%.
Cost Items
CAPS
request
CIMSS
request
CIRA
request
PI and scientist salaries
$61,890
29,462
27,486
Fringe Benefits
$28,593
$90,483
$5,500
$1,000
$3,017
$100,000
$26,000
$126,000
12,079
7,091
41,541
1,600
970
2,400
46,512
23,488
$70,000
34,577
Total Salary + Benefits
Travel
Materials & Supplies
Publication
Total Direct Costs
Indirect Costs (26%)
Total Costs
4
3,885
38,462
11,538
$50,000
The CIRA portion of the
budget will be used to support
Louis Grasso for 4 months.
Fringe rates are set at 25.8% by
the University of Wisconsin to
cover health and retirement
benefits. The overhead rate is
30% per CIRA Cooperative
Agreement.