The Fourth World KLEMS Conference. Determinants of Productivity in Mexico. Madrid, 23 may 2016. Total Factor Productivity Determinants of TPF? What happened? Steps to follow Total Factor Productivity -4.50 The TFP 19912014 average, stood at -0.33% The TFP in 2014 preliminary decreases 0.19%. 2014P 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 -0.65 -3.56 2.76 1.71 0.43 0.80 -0.19 -1.38 -0.54 0.40 0.41 2004 2005 -1.34 -0.50 0.41 -2.50 -0.06 0.18 0.69 0.21 0.17 2003 2002 2001 2000 -1.60 0.00 1999 1998 1997 1996 -3.89 1995 1994 1993 -3.00 -0.95 -1.50 1992 1.50 1.16 3.00 1991 4.50 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 -6.00 -8.00 -3.89 -3.56 -6.18 -5.77 Gross Output Total Factor Contribution Total Factor Productivity 2014 2013 2012 2011 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 -2.21 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 -4.00 -2.29 2010 -2.00 A Variables 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 K L E M S B A-B=C T FP 1.16 0.17 -0.95 0.21 -3.89 2.76 0.69 0.18 -1.60 -0.06 -2.50 -1.34 -0.50 0.41 0.40 0.41 -0.54 -1.38 -3.56 1.71 0.80 0.43 -0.65 -0.19 (Weighted annual growth rates) Production 5.40 4.90 2.20 6.33 -6.18 7.25 6.84 6.23 3.58 5.20 -1.12 0.62 2.33 4.50 3.08 5.51 3.16 0.87 -5.77 5.81 3.70 4.15 1.39 2.23 Capital TIC NO TIC Labor Energy Materials Services Contribution of factors 1.53 1.85 1.80 1.96 1.23 0.60 1.48 2.00 2.24 2.42 2.04 1.40 1.11 1.15 1.36 1.59 1.77 1.77 1.29 0.90 1.14 1.45 1.40 1.28 0.04 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.00 -0.05 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.29 0.27 0.12 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.12 0.20 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.05 0.10 0.09 0.10 1.49 1.75 1.67 1.84 1.23 0.65 1.43 1.88 2.05 2.14 1.77 1.28 1.04 1.06 1.28 1.47 1.57 1.64 1.17 0.80 1.10 1.35 1.31 1.18 0.50 0.97 0.76 0.72 -0.39 0.90 1.15 0.55 0.88 0.24 0.30 -0.04 1.37 0.87 -0.01 0.84 0.60 0.41 -0.48 0.34 0.32 0.45 0.06 0.15 0.21 0.06 0.05 0.13 -0.22 0.18 0.16 0.22 0.10 0.15 -0.04 0.01 0.15 -0.02 -0.04 -0.03 0.05 0.06 -0.03 -0.03 0.07 0.12 0.07 -0.03 1.42 1.19 0.32 2.28 -1.52 2.52 2.24 2.36 0.78 1.78 -0.70 0.21 0.42 1.53 0.87 1.72 0.51 0.35 -2.17 1.47 0.78 0.77 0.36 0.71 0.59 0.66 0.23 1.03 -1.39 0.29 1.11 0.92 1.17 0.66 -0.22 0.38 -0.22 0.57 0.50 0.98 0.77 -0.34 -0.82 1.43 0.58 0.92 0.15 0.30 4.24 4.73 3.15 6.12 -2.29 4.49 6.14 6.05 5.18 5.26 1.38 1.96 2.83 4.09 2.69 5.11 3.71 2.26 -2.21 4.11 2.90 3.71 2.04 2.42 Determinants of TFP? Capital service price. Capital productivity. Income (cost) per unit of capital. Price of labor service. Labor productivity. Unit labor cost. 80.0 4500000 70.0 4000000 60.0 3500000 3000000 50.0 2500000 40.0 2000000 30.0 1500000 20.0 1000000 10.0 500000 Capital service price Capital productivity Income per unit of capital Gross Output 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 0 1991 0.0 Price of labor service Labor productivity. Unit labor cost 2014 2013 2012 0 2011 0.000 2010 200000 2009 5.000 2008 400000 2007 10.000 2006 600000 2005 15.000 2004 800000 2003 20.000 2002 1000000 2001 25.000 2000 1200000 1999 30.000 1998 1400000 1997 35.000 1996 1600000 1995 40.000 1994 1800000 1993 45.000 1992 2000000 1991 50.000 Gross Output Services Capital and Labor Services, have a common point with respect to the results shown from 1991 to 2014. The common point is the crisis of 1995, when the economy experienced a sharp drop in production have an impact on these two factors. Causing a structural change in the Mexican economy from 1995 production growth is not favorable to the ability of the economy to generate better results in productivity. The change observed in the total economy, is similar to the results of the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. Consequently, this situation generated a structural change in the Mexican economy. In response, the federal government has recently boosted financial and labor reforms. The first, find that the credit is accessible to all producers of | goods and services. The second seeks to guarantee the quality of labor through fair wages and well paid. Because current labor laws protect employment generation without promoting it. 70.0 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 Capital service price Capital productivity Income per unit of capital 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 0.0 Gross Output Price of labor service Labor productivity. Unit labor cost 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 1999 0.000 1998 50000 1997 5.000 1996 100000 1995 10.000 1994 150000 1993 15.000 1992 200000 1991 20.000 Gross Output 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 Capital service price Capital productivity Income per unit of capital 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 0 Gross Output 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0.000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 Price of labor service Labor productivity. Unit labor cost Gross Output 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 0 60.0 2000000 50.0 1500000 40.0 30.0 1000000 20.0 500000 10.0 Capital service price Capital productivity Income per unit of capital 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 0 1991 0.0 Gross Output 50.000 2000000 40.000 1500000 30.000 1000000 20.000 500000 10.000 Price of labor service Labor productivity. Unit labor cost Gross Output 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 0 1991 0.000 Capital service price Total economy Primary sector Secondary sector Third sector Capital Income (Cost) productivity per unit of capital Price of labor service Labor productivity Unit labor cost ∆ ∆ ∆ ∇ ∇ ∇ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∇ ∇ ∇ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∇ ∆ ∆ ∇ ∆ What happened? Indicators Capital service price Capital productivity Formula 𝑃𝐾 = 𝐸𝐵𝑂 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝐾 𝑃𝐾 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝐸𝐵𝑂 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑆𝑢𝑟𝑝𝑙𝑢𝑠 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑘 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝜌𝐾 = 𝑌 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝐾 𝜌𝐾 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑌 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝐴𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝐾 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 Income per unit of capital 𝐸𝐵𝑂 𝐶𝐾 = Price of labor service Labor productivity Unit labor cost Components 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝐾 𝜌𝐾 𝐶𝐾 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝐵𝑂 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑆𝑢𝑟𝑝𝑙𝑢𝑠 𝜌𝐾 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑘 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐 𝑃𝐿 = 𝑅𝑒𝑚 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝐿 𝑃𝐿 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑅𝑒𝑚 𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝐿 𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝜌𝐿 = 𝑌 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝐿 𝜌𝐿 𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑌 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝐴𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝐿 𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑅𝑒𝑚 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝐿 𝐶𝐿 = 𝑃𝐿 𝐶𝐿 𝑈𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑅𝑒𝑚 𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝜌𝐿 𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝐿 𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 Steps to follow. Assess the impact of global value chains as part of the Total Contribution of factors and their impact on the Gross Value of Production. Analyze other determinants of productivity, proposed in the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consider opening that has the SNA 2008 in the following types of assets, to adopt in the PTF-KLEMS: Machinery, weapons systems and equipment. Transport equipment. Computer hardware. Telecommunications equipment. Other machinery and equipment and weapon systems nonresidential construction (other buildings and structures). Intellectual property products. Software and computer databases. Investigation and development. Other intellectual property products. Conociendo México 01 800 111 46 34 www.inegi.org.mx atencion.usuarios@inegi.org.mx @inegi_informa INEGI Informa