OECD Balance of Payments
The quality review and follow-up
Bill Cave and Isaac Lagnado
OECD Statistics Directorate
ITS-TIS September 2006
1
Overview
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OECD Statistics Quality Review of BOP activity 2004
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Self-assessment of what we do
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Users and stakeholders
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Report 2005
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Progress and Follow-up
Self-assessment of what we do
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STD Balance of Payments (BOP) activity is twofold.
compilation and maintenance of the BOP Dataset
– aims to provide analysts with timely and internationally
comparable summary set of BOP data items for OECD (and
Big 6)
coordination of OECD interests in Balance of Payments
(excluding FDI where DAFFE leads)
– representation of these in methodological development work
of the IMF Balance of Payments Committee
Links to Trade in Services, FDI, Merchandise trade,
Remittances, National Accounts, Financial Accounts etc
Methodological Standards
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BOP methodological standards set by IMF
BOP Manual 5th Edition – now being revised
IMF strongly encourages countries to present data according
IMF BPM5 standards
All OECD countries ostensibly do so
But national compilation methods vary e.g. ITRS, Surveys,
Customs and Other administrative data
Generally good level of international comparability
Core Variables collected
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1 Current Account B(alance)
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–
–
–
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2 Capital Account – B
3 Financial Account – B
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–
–
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Goods – X, M, B
Services – X, M, B
Income – Cr, Db, B
Current Transfers – B
FDI Abroad, FDI in Reporting Economy
Portfolio Investment Assets, .. Liabilities
Financial derivatives net
Other Investment Assets, … Liabilities
Change in reserve assets
4 Net Errors and Omissions
ITS-TIS September 2006
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How are data collected?
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Web Queries
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SIMS : electronic files or interrogation of National
databases
Manual entry – seek to minimise
Seasonal adjustment of current account series,
where countries do not provide(X12 ARIMA using
Fame routines)
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Measures and controls
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Measures are:
– national currency unadjusted and seasonally adjusted
(current account only)
– US Dollar unadjusted and seasonally adjusted (selected
variables only)
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Data controls
– Data capture – series by series historic comparisons
– MEI validation controls
• CB=G+S+I+T
• FA=DI+PI+FD+OI+RA
• CB+CAP+FA+NEO=0
Users
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ECO are our most important user for their economic
forecasting and analysis.
– Timeliness
– Want 24 hour updating during peak periods
– Seasonal adjusted data
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DAF for investment committee or publications
– Quarterly data
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DSTI Detailed annual data
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General demand for zone totals
Main Quality Review Recommendations
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Develop Zone totals
More automatic data collection and improve quality
control, and timeliness
Review metadata in 2006
Take opportunities to raise the profile of BOP dataset
No clear demand for more monthly series
Review how to make non-member BOP more
coherent
Recent Developments in BOP
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More $ series
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Zones OECD and G7 Totals for Goods , Services, FDI and G7
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Monitoring timeliness – Exhibit A and B
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Coordination with Non-member BOP – Factbook
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Newsletter article
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Proactive discussion with users
Zone totals for FDI Flows
OECD and G7 FDI flows
1400
1200
1000
OECD
outflows
OECD inflows
$bn
800
600
G7 outflows
400
G7 inflows
200
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Data dissemination
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MEI
– BOP data are compiled, stored and published in the MEI
database. Dissemination simply reflects the case of the MEI
database as a whole
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Press release
– Quarterly news release for Trade in Goods and Services
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OECD.Stat – BOP dataset on OLIS and free subset
on Internet
Current Plans
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Review and Revise Metadata by End 2005
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Improve timeliness
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Create new Zone totals – OECD Europe, N America,
Asia-Pacific
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Improve Quality: with SIMS to develop new data
preparation and validation area
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Non-members?
The End
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Thank you for your attention
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Any comments or questions?
ITS-TIS September 2006
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